1 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three 2 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I 3 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: am Chad Nolman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. 4 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: Today is our week nine Thursday NFL episode. This is 5 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys 6 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our Survivor pick 7 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: and build our money line Underdog Round Robin. We give 8 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: out our foxhol bet and our Big Balls bet of 9 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: the week. We narrow down our picks for the free 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: to play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football 11 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: Pick Them contest. As our old pal Colin Cowhard likes 12 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: to say, there is a sea of money out there, 13 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: because there's a sea of money out there. If you 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 1: want to follow along with our official bets, you can 15 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: check them out on the contest website Favorites dot Actionnetwork 16 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: dot com when we lock them in before kickoff on Sunday. 17 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: If you prefer using the award winning Action app, you 18 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: can also track all the bets. Simon and I lock 19 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 1: in by following two accounts, the Phase five and the 20 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast. Now let's bring in my co host, my 21 00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: companion Michael Padre My BFF Professional Better, Simon Hunter, Hehado Sime. 22 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 2: Hello, Hotsha, good morning, Good. 23 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: Morning to you, my friend. Listen, my head is swimming 24 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 1: a little bit. I really want to get into these 25 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: games because numbers have moved in different ways. Games that 26 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 1: we really loved have gotten some attention, maybe from the 27 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: wise guys that we didn't expect. I have a lot 28 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 1: of things that I want to be talking about today 29 00:01:53,040 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: as a reminder of the Favorites. Podcast is presented by 30 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,520 Speaker 1: Bet three six five. Bet three six five doesn't do 31 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: you ordinary. That's why you at more boosts with them 32 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: than with anyone else. Every day they powered up the 33 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:05,960 Speaker 1: odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance 34 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: to win more. Bet three sixty five boosts specific market 35 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 1: to your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there. 36 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: Keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds 37 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 1: with the incredible Superboost. Check out the boosts and see 38 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 1: why it's never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must 39 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, 40 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia, or eighteen or older in Kentucky. 41 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight 42 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Week 43 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: nine kickoff is near, lots of opportunities. Let's not dilly dally. 44 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:54,119 Speaker 2: Sharp calls Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain. 45 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: Rain telephone range. 46 00:02:56,000 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 2: Somebody said maybe watching. Yeah, And a week of disagreement, Chad, 47 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 2: that's what it feels like. 48 00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: And you know what, I'm not surprised. 49 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 2: There's people on both sides and a lot of disagreement. 50 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: A lot of guys think they know what's best, and 51 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 2: it's been rough where it's like I had a couple 52 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 2: of games I really believed in this week, leaking a 53 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 2: little confident confidence on a couple of them just because 54 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:20,920 Speaker 2: I know who's coming on the other side, and you know, 55 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 2: it'd be a good week that if we weren't doing 56 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 2: the show, I probably would take off, no joke. It's 57 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,119 Speaker 2: just a week where there's just so much disagreement. We've 58 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 2: had such a good run, especially myself this year. It's like, Man, 59 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 2: I don't want to be in this drama. You know, 60 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 2: just the first game we're gonna talk about this Miami 61 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 2: Chiefs game. I don't know why you would put six 62 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 2: figures on this game if you're a big time better, Like, 63 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: there's just so many unknowns. They're in Germany. Miami's had injuries, 64 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: they have guys coming back, The Chiefs have injuries. We 65 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: don't know who's back and who's gonna be playing this one. 66 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 2: And I knew there was going to be some sharps 67 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 2: and professionals coming in on Miami. When I talked to 68 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 2: the you know, the group that is coming in heavy 69 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 2: on Miami. They really liked their position there. They really 70 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 2: liked this Miami team. They like they like the two 71 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: and a half, they like the two, and they're a 72 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: big believer that Miami is the better team in this matchup. 73 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: And I think me and you are still from the 74 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: standpoint of we back Mahomes in these spots if you 75 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: just need him to win the game. At minus one 76 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 2: and a half, I can't avoid it. Like even all 77 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 2: yesterday I was trying to fight it and be like 78 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 2: now I'm coming around in Miami. I just I can't 79 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 2: get there. I mean, I think Brady and Belichick, I'll 80 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 2: put them at number one. There's no one better at 81 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 2: beating you and the clock. Like the best smartest minds 82 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 2: of football. They're not playing you, They're playing the clock. 83 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 2: No one's better that than the Chiefs. The Chiefs if 84 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 2: they have the ball last Mahomes, who does it better 85 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 2: than killing that final five minutes and just kicking the 86 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 2: field won't win in the game. So I can't believe 87 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 2: these guys are betting so heavy against Mahomes in the 88 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 2: spot we might be stepping in with Seattle. I think 89 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 2: we both knew that it's up to six now despite 90 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: a lot of the tickets, allow the money pouring in 91 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: on them. How do we avoid it? Chat another game 92 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 2: where it's like, I wish we could just avoid it. 93 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 2: I don't know if we can. You know. Shockingly, another 94 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 2: really smart group came in, Have you on the Washington 95 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 2: even though Washington's moved their two best pass rushers. They 96 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 2: like Washington against New England. 97 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: I love the Washington. 98 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a ton of points against New England. Like 99 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,600 Speaker 2: that's my view. It's like, yeah, it's a trap, like 100 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 2: they want you to take all those points of Washington. 101 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: That is a lot of points against New England. That's 102 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 2: just one of the stinkiest lines this week. The boys 103 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 2: love the Saints. We already missed the boat on that, 104 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 2: Like we talked about it with the backup quarterback, I 105 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 2: try to get ahead of with fields. They've just been 106 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 2: betting NonStop. I feel like that's every week though, right 107 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 2: is it? Every week? We talk about the Saints numbers 108 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: move than being bigger favorite. So yes, they've now gone 109 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 2: from six to eight and a half. And that's that's 110 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 2: some real money there, moving that number all the way 111 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:47,599 Speaker 2: up because the Saints are bad, like them to be 112 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 2: up to eight and a half. I want to take 113 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 2: it so bad, Chad, I want to take it so bad, 114 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 2: but I know better, and brother. 115 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 1: Brother, it's in the script down the list. It's gonna 116 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: be hard not to bet the Bears at eight and 117 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: a half, but please continue. 118 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: Cowboys. A lot of pros love the Cowboys, and that 119 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: was another game I was split on where I thought 120 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 2: we would be on the Cowboys. You like the Eagles. 121 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,520 Speaker 2: I kind of like the Eagles. I think it's just 122 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 2: it's just the number is what it should be. I 123 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 2: make it three three and a half. It's just sitting 124 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:24,920 Speaker 2: there exactly where it should be. The Bills, there's a 125 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 2: lot of trends that point to the Bills and me 126 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,840 Speaker 2: and you are being super Chalky just going with the 127 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 2: Bengals there that they look like the best team last week. 128 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 2: Everyone's putting them back in their top five. You know, 129 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: it's this Joe Burrows back. We might be stepping in it. 130 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 2: And the last one is the Jets. We love it. 131 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 2: I don't care that all these guys love the Chargers. 132 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 2: They're all in on the Chargers. I know a really 133 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 2: smart group that came in heavy on the Chargers. That one, 134 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 2: honestly doesn't still fade me. I still love the Jets there. 135 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 2: I am happy to take the three and a half. 136 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 2: Most of my money right now is bet on the 137 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 2: Jets of three and a half and the Panthers at 138 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 2: plus three. And I hate this week. So that's it 139 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,559 Speaker 2: for sharp calls this week. It's just so much shit talking. 140 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 2: I can't take it. I think I told Chad I'm 141 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 2: not a big drinker. I went out and got after it. 142 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 2: On Halloween. There was a huge party here. You know. 143 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: I woke up every other hour just people calling me 144 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: just because there was just so much crazy line movement 145 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 2: on that Tuesday to Wednesday night. The biggest one a 146 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 2: game we're going to dive into is just this Miami 147 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 2: Chiefs game. I just couldn't believe how opinionated people were 148 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 2: on it and how much money people are put on it. 149 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 2: Where it's a game in Germany, I just would never 150 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 2: make this one of my bigger bets. 151 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, we can't put this game in the contest, 152 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: but it is too big of a game with too 153 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: much of an interesting narrative. As you mentioned, Evan has 154 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: been doing some on the ground reporting for what's happening 155 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: in Germany. We're going to bring him in special for 156 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 1: this game's breakdown. We got to start narrowing down the games. 157 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: We got to get to Foxhole, we got to get 158 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 1: to survivor Pick. We got to get to big balls 159 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: better the week. Lots of trades this week. The Commanders 160 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: unloaded their v line Montese sweat to the Bears, chase 161 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: down to the Niners. The Vikings traded for Josh Dobbs, 162 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: the Bills traded for Rausul Douglas. Seattle traded for Leonard Williams. 163 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke is starting for the Falcons, and of course 164 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: the Raiders fire Josh McDaniels and they are now one 165 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against the Giants. So Miami 166 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: versus Kansas City in Germany. You and I love this. 167 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: On Sunday when it was Kansas City minus two, it 168 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 1: did go up to two and a half. Got that 169 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: back down. We still liked it. On Tuesday. I saw 170 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: you yesterday we were doing the Faves Film Room YouTube exclusive. 171 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,640 Speaker 1: Go check it out. You did Geno Davis this week. 172 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 1: I did Trey Hendrickson. We're going to talk about those games. 173 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: You did not look good, And I said to you, dude, 174 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 1: what's going on? You're like and you we had a 175 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: Halloween hangover. You remember what you said when I asked 176 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: you why you looked so ragged. 177 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm living with the goddamn ghost. 178 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: You're living with a ghost. But also you were checking 179 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: that Miami Kansas City game NonStop, and your face about 180 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: how the line was moving and how sick it was 181 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 1: making you feel. And what did I say to you? 182 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 2: I just remember we had way too much confidence. 183 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: We're betting Mahomes to win. Yeah, we have zero evidence 184 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: not to bet on Kansas City and the homes for 185 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,319 Speaker 1: all the things you just said. I know there's sharp 186 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: groups coming in, but by the way, where's sharp sometimes too? 187 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 1: I do not fear betting on Kansas City in this spot, I. 188 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 2: Know, And that's what's giving me fear. You're just so confident. 189 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 2: I hate it. You sound like them. I just I 190 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 2: don't know how these people can bet this game so confidently, 191 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: especially the Miami side. I'm not the biggest trend better. 192 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 2: I mean that trend that Evan gave us is incredible, 193 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 2: like nineteen and six under three points or as a dog, 194 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 2: It's like, how do we not do it? So I 195 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 2: hate it, like I would have much more confidence if 196 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 2: this had gone to three, because that means a lot 197 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: of the pros were on this with us. I told 198 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 2: you it's a smart group man like to move this number, 199 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,599 Speaker 2: especially when the books know every teaser everything's going to 200 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: start Sunday morning tied to the Chiefs. All the bets 201 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: are tied to the Chiefs. So that's what's giving me 202 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 2: pause here. It's like it's a really big standalone game, 203 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 2: and I know the books are good, right they crushed 204 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,200 Speaker 2: last week the Chiefs losing outright. This is our one 205 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 2: of our more public plays of the year. I'm so 206 00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: happy we don't have to put this in the contest 207 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 2: because I just I told you, Guessdy I was pregnant 208 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 2: by out of my chiefs position. I haven't. I just 209 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: actually ended up putting a little bit more on it 210 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,040 Speaker 2: at the minuts one and a half and good for you. Yeah, 211 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 2: I'm just gonna trust my homes. 212 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: Dolphins four and ten straight up versus teams above five hundred, 213 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: sixteen and seven straight up versus teams below five hundred. 214 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:43,319 Speaker 1: They haven't beaten a team with a winning record since 215 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: they beat the Bills in Week three of last season. 216 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: Only two teams don't have a straight up win over 217 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: a team with a winning record in that span, Chicago Bears, 218 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: Mammy Dolphins. And this is part of the logic that 219 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: is part of the logic we had on Tuesday. I'm 220 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 1: just not buying the hype. And so Evan, you're on 221 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: the ground, not literally, but you've got people do miss 222 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: your take on what's been happening with Germany as it 223 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: relates to weather and how it could impact this game. 224 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, just two things to think about. And I brought 225 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 3: this up before the call, so I wanted to kind of, 226 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 3: you know, bring in some two cents here. So wind 227 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 3: is an interesting factor in this game. So the total 228 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 3: was fifty one and a half down to fifty and 229 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 3: a half, but right now it looks like seventeen mile 230 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 3: an hour wins at the beginning of kickoff, going to 231 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 3: eighteen and nineteen potentially, which would be the windiest game 232 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 3: this season, any game, any team. 233 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 2: I think. 234 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 3: The thing that's interesting though, was the roof. So I've 235 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 3: been talking to a few people who I know actually 236 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 3: in Germany and trying to figure out the situation because 237 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 3: it kind of just depends roof is pushed in. Probably 238 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 3: only impacts field goals. We've been told roof not closed, 239 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 3: but probably doesn't impact passing as much if it's pushed in. 240 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 3: So I just something to think about, something to worry about. 241 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 3: Probably closer to kickoff will probably get more information. And 242 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 3: the second thing is, and I know Simon's actually mentioned 243 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 3: this before, but believe the Dolphins have actually been in 244 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 3: Germany all week while the Chiefs were flying a little 245 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: bit later. To me, that actually matters, and it has 246 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 3: mattered before, and I think it's good for the Dolphins. 247 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 3: So we'll see how much that impacts Kansas City. But 248 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 3: just the little things, especially in this type of game. 249 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: We're betting the Chiefs. As remind the NBA season has 250 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: officially tipped off. And you guys, you listeners, we want 251 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:28,600 Speaker 1: to thank you. We asked you last week to listen 252 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 1: to Buckets, our daily NBA betting podcast, and you helped 253 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: us make it a top fifty sports podcast on Spotify 254 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 1: last week. Thank you for checking out Buckets. Action Networks 255 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: basketball betting podcast with new episodes every single weekday this 256 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: NBA season. All right, I'm so glad we could get 257 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: Evan to Germany and back in record time. We spare 258 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,679 Speaker 1: no expense to get information to our listeners and watchers 259 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: here at the Action Network. All right, I just want 260 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: to be Washington at three and a half. I have 261 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 1: no faith in Bill Belichick, who's eighty two and ninety 262 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,319 Speaker 1: six in his career without Tom Brady. I have even 263 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: less faith in Mac Jones, who the Pats wanted to trade, 264 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: but nobody fucking wants this guy. Like Washington is traded 265 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: away its most impactful defensive players, the lines barely moved. 266 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: It may be as suckers bet a huge pros Joe's game. 267 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 1: By the way, all the pros are on Washington, that 268 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:33,559 Speaker 1: public is on New England. Here's a stat I took 269 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: from Raybaud, who also like New England, and we like 270 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: it when we're on the same side as Raybond, which 271 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 1: worries me for a lot of our picks today. He 272 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: said this on the Action Network podcast, which you can 273 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 1: go listen to or check out the Sunday six pack 274 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:51,040 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Road Underdogs of less than a touchdown Washington 275 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 1: Commanders against the team that averages less than eighteen points 276 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: per game, New England Patriots. They are sixty four percent 277 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: against the spread the past two days to sample size 278 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: the nearly three hundred games. What are we doing here? 279 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: You say we're walking into a trap. I say we're 280 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: getting an opportunity. 281 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:11,000 Speaker 2: I say you are, now we are? You are Chad. 282 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 2: Chad has a understand how how the money works. So 283 00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:15,079 Speaker 2: this this open at two and a half. It's three 284 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 2: and a half. Tell me again where the sharp money is, Chad. 285 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: Sharp money's on Washington, New England. 286 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 2: If the number is going from two and a half 287 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 2: up to three and a half, it crossed two key numbers. 288 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 2: It's the professionals have come in on New England. So yeah, 289 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:29,080 Speaker 2: I told you it's a split week. There's gonna be 290 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 2: people in Washington, There's gonna be people in New England. 291 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 2: I'm dug in. I've already bet this heavily at the 292 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 2: three with New England. I haven't let the three and 293 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 2: a half scare me off. I'll bet it if I 294 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 2: need to. But I have enough enough threes out there. 295 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 2: I can just take the threes for the New England. 296 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm with you. It's not a good feeling, Chad, Like, 297 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: do I want to be taking Mac Jones a favorite? Hell? No, 298 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 2: the guy sucks. Like everything you just said is so 299 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 2: damn true. I don't. I don't feel good about it. 300 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 2: But I'm just playing the spot, playing the number. And 301 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 2: Washington just had a really intense, hard fog game against 302 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 2: the Eagles and they fell short. Now they're traveling up 303 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: to New England in the freezing cold. It's just a 304 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 2: bad spot for Washington. Like I can't say it enough. 305 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 2: It's like you sell your best two pass rushers and 306 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 2: now you need them, and you needed them in this game. 307 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 2: Like the fact that Washington is bad. Their defense is 308 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 2: really bad. We've talked all season how bad their defense is. 309 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 2: They've gotten rid of the only good thing on that defense. 310 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 2: Their two best pass rushers are gone. Maybe Sam has 311 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 2: a great game against Belichick's defense. It's just I have 312 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 2: to back Bill here catching three against a bad head 313 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 2: coach and Rivera and just a bad team in Washington 314 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 2: that they play the Eagle stuff, but everyone else it 315 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 2: seems like they're just bad again. So I wish I 316 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 2: could get there with you in Washington. I just can't. 317 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna let the three and a half scare them, 318 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 2: especially if it's in my contest. If I like New England, 319 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 2: I'll just end up taking them. But I'm with you. 320 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 2: It's never fun going against Chris and backing the Patriots 321 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 2: as a favorite. It's just it's a gross feeling, but 322 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 2: it feels like it's the right move this week. 323 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: It's one of the growth You keep saying it's the 324 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: right move, but you like, we know Washington's defense is bad, 325 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:13,440 Speaker 1: but all of the trends about specific coaches, specific spots 326 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: and teams in numbers in this spot, Ron Rivera don't 327 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: forget as much as we don't like him, and we're 328 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: angry that he did not go for two last week 329 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: to give us an easy to give us the cover 330 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: and the win when we had it at six and 331 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: a half and better at seven. He's the one of 332 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: the most profitable coaches the past twenty years against the spread, 333 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: Tomlin Harbaugh. I think it was Vrabel and Rivera. So 334 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: like you keep telling me New England it's the right 335 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 1: spot and the right move, but all the evidence is 336 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: to the contrary. 337 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 2: What's the evidence your trends? 338 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,920 Speaker 1: Oh, don't get don't. Don't all of a sudden belittle 339 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 1: the trends Matt Jones is doing. 340 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 2: You're saying twenty years' Ron Rivera. It's like, what are 341 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: we doing? We're talking about when Roun and Verd cam 342 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 2: Newton or when he had the green Lizard Taylor Heineke 343 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 2: last year. No, No, it's a bit weird. 344 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: No, No, we can't be selective about defining when the 345 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: trends work for us. We can decide we don't like 346 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: that trend. 347 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 2: Yes you can, Chad. That's the whole point of trends. Brother, 348 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 2: use trends when it benefits yourself. 349 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,919 Speaker 1: The trend just because you don't like it in this spot. 350 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: I'm not saying we're going to put Washington the contest. 351 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 1: But I haven't heard anything about New England that makes 352 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: me say, oh, yeah, it's the right spot for New England. 353 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 2: You did I told you I like New England. That 354 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 2: should tell you it's the right spot, brother God, And 355 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: what are we doing here? 356 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: I'm an evidenced based human scientologists need facts, Simon. 357 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 2: It takes no Bravery taking Washington here at plus three 358 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 2: and a half. Chad Bravery will take New England and 359 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:52,719 Speaker 2: minus three and a half? They what are they? Two 360 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 2: and five? They're the worst teams on football. Man, It's 361 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 2: just that's my whole read here. It's just like I 362 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 2: don't trust the books. The books aren't our friends. I'll 363 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 2: say it all the time. And it's a little stinky 364 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 2: this line, the fact that it's up to three and 365 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 2: a half. There's just something here I don't like about it. 366 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna find consensus on this word. 367 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: So Tampa Bay at Houston, we liked Tampa two and 368 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: a half. I'm getting a little antsy about it. Tampa 369 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:22,399 Speaker 1: is the fourth luckiest team in the NFL per Our 370 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: luck Rakings, Raybaund loves Houston. Stucky loves Houston. 371 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 2: Is that what I'm gonna do all week is just 372 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:30,720 Speaker 2: are you gonna talk about what the Sunday six pack 373 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 2: guys like? And we just go on the other side 374 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: maybe maybe they do. Last week, man, Mitchell, jump in 375 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 2: real quick. 376 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: I know how competitive you are, and I know you 377 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: remember everything, so you know what they did. 378 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 2: I just know they didn't do better than us. And 379 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 2: now you're all in on them. 380 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 4: Hey, Chris and Stucky, who do the Sunday six pack? 381 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 4: As part of the Thursday Action Network Podcast NFL episode 382 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 4: They went three and three last week, but they are 383 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 4: four games over five hundred for the year, and as 384 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 4: a reminder, make them lock in their picks on Wednesday afternoon. 385 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 4: You guys pick on Sundays and you guys get contest lines, 386 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 4: So just everybody cool it. 387 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: Every single week, everyone is so angry. Tito is so upset. 388 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 1: He's like, why are we fighting? We're family. Everybody loves everybody. 389 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 2: I just I love Chad. But if every number chants 390 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 2: can be like and the other guys are on the 391 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 2: other side of this one, it's like, Okay, it's a 392 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 2: split week. People are gonna bet opposite sides. Brother, That's 393 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 2: my point. 394 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: It's a very challenging week. Tell me what's gross? 395 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 2: Isn't that? Isn't that the whole brand of the show? 396 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 2: Yeah it is, So what's the gross? Pick? Here? Is 397 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,919 Speaker 2: it is it taking CJ or is it taking the 398 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 2: shitty ass lucky Bucks team at plus two and a half? 399 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 2: Like the I told you, I think the book's out 400 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 2: on CJ. Could be wrong. Maybe Todd Bowles is a 401 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 2: fucking idiot and Tampa is just is a bad defense now, 402 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 2: and like, yeah, we could be walking into it. It's 403 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 2: just it's another number that feels like it's too high. 404 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 2: If this was I don't know, a month ago, I 405 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:57,840 Speaker 2: probably would be on Houston. But now we're a month 406 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 2: in and just this Bucks team defensively, I think they're 407 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 2: gonna have an advantage over this Houston team. So yeah, 408 00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 2: it's tough. Chad. Obviously, I wish this was plus three. 409 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 2: It's plus two and a half. What can we do? 410 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 2: I'm going to take the two and a half here 411 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 2: with the Bucks. 412 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: Well, look, I already bet the Bucks at two and 413 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,479 Speaker 1: a half. I'm not afraid of this one. 414 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,000 Speaker 2: I'm always I'll be honest. 415 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 1: I feel like this one doesn't give me pause in 416 00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 1: the way like Washington, the way New England would. I 417 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 1: feel like we're getting a decent number on two teams 418 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 1: that are so so Texans. What I've seen from CJ 419 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: Stroud the past couple of weeks hasn't been as good, 420 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,000 Speaker 1: and three games after his hot start, he's pretty much 421 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: a mediocre quarterback and his numbers bear that, which are 422 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 1: not all that different than Baker Mayfield. It's my take 423 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: on that game. 424 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked that I've sent up be in 425 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 2: one of our five Sunday Morning It's it's just a 426 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: good number in a good spot for the Bucks. 427 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: We still owe a foxhole, we still owe a big 428 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:01,719 Speaker 1: balls bet of the Week Arizona Cleland. We were waiting 429 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: to pull the trigger on this until we heard about 430 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. According to practice reports, Clayton Tune, former Houston quarterback, 431 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: University of got all the first string reps on Wednesday. 432 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: Murray was a full participant, but was with the practice squad. 433 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: We're kind of leaning Cleveland here. I think the only 434 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: thing that's holding us back is the status of Murray. 435 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,000 Speaker 2: And I saw Watson practice yesterday and looked alright, which 436 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 2: would be, you know, not the biggest deal. Obviously, he's 437 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 2: been crap all season, but at least we know he 438 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 2: won't turn them ball over as much as PJ. Walker does. 439 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 2: So yeah, another game, Like I just I feel no 440 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 2: confidence in but it feels like we have to play 441 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,959 Speaker 2: Cleveland Arizona. They're going to be playing this kid in 442 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 2: his first road start against that Brown's defense. I just 443 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 2: don't know how they score. I don't know how they 444 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 2: get there. It's like it's really an uphill battle for 445 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,240 Speaker 2: a Cardinals team that they've just they've lost so many 446 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 2: key policces to an already bad offense. It's a little weird. 447 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 2: The number hasn't moved up, especially with the news that 448 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,720 Speaker 2: Watson might be coming back. So you know, there's a 449 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 2: couple books right now to have them at seven and 450 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,640 Speaker 2: a half. You can get Cleveland right now at seven 451 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 2: and a half, which is pretty interesting. Like the fact 452 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 2: this number just hasn't gone up, it stayed kind of 453 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 2: low relatively speaking. I do like Cleveland obviously our sponsored book. 454 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 2: I wish it was the seven and a half, it's not. 455 00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 2: It's still eight, which is a key number, so I 456 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 2: won't make that our foxhoul, but definitely like Cleveland. This 457 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 2: spot like it's rare for me to take these kind 458 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 2: of favorites, but it feels good, especially if Arizona got 459 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: such a ridiculous cover last week. Cleveland had a last 460 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 2: second loss. It just it lines up where Arizona's gonna 461 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 2: come in this Cleveland just is going to kill the 462 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 2: demolished them in this game. When we saw it earlier 463 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: this year, where you know, Tennessee came to play Cleveland 464 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 2: and their defenses rolled them. And that's what we expect 465 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 2: here with this Cleveland team against Arizona. 466 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: I feel like we have two we have three contenders 467 00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: for foxhol and big Balls, all of which are at 468 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: the bottom of the schedule. In the bottom of our 469 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 1: scripture Chicago at New Orleans, you're saying the wise guys 470 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,199 Speaker 1: are on the Saints. We've seen that number move to 471 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: eight and a half. Derek Carr is just not good 472 00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: as a favorite. This number is so big right now. 473 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: Like I'm convinced the bearers are the right side here. 474 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 1: I like, I'm not going to buy into the Derek 475 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: Carr hype because he finally had one good game against 476 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: a defense that is kind of cratering right now, seventeen 477 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 1: twenty nine and two against the spread as a favorite 478 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,679 Speaker 1: with the Raiders, he is now He's one five and 479 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 1: one as a favorite with the Saints. Never had a 480 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: year above five hundred as a favorite eight twenty four 481 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: and two when favored by three points or more over 482 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: the last three years, one nine and one again to 483 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,439 Speaker 1: spread in this spot. How are we not taking the 484 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: Bears here? 485 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably have regrets not touching it, but I 486 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 2: just I can't get there. Man. The Bears bears a stink. 487 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, but there's there's no difference here, by the way, 488 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: between the Bears and the Patriots. We got a terrible quarterback, 489 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: a terrible team with a huge number against a team 490 00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: that we have no faith in. 491 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 2: There's a million differences between these two teams. The Patriots 492 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 2: actually have a good defense. The Patriots actually have a 493 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 2: good head coach. Say what you want about Mac Jones. 494 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,919 Speaker 2: He's not a deer in headlights like your guys quarterback is. Like, 495 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,680 Speaker 2: there are some differences here, Chad, But I get you're 496 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 2: coming from. It's it's it's tough to defend the Patriots, 497 00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 2: the worst team in football. But no, the Bears are 498 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 2: nowhere near the same team the Patriots are. I mean 499 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 2: just defensively, the Patriots are light years ahead of that. Man. 500 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 2: Like even talent wise, you guys have no talent defensively, 501 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,640 Speaker 2: I mean you have good linebackers, but what the hell 502 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 2: has that done for you guys this season? Nothing? I'm 503 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 2: with you, it's a huge number. I should be on 504 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 2: the Bears. They're going to be probably the least bet dog, right, 505 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 2: I mean, who's betting the Bears this week? Even when 506 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 2: I talked to a bunch of a professionals, like I 507 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 2: know there's a couple of guys who like the Bears 508 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,679 Speaker 2: because what you just said, it's a huge number against 509 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 2: the Saints. But no one's like going crazy like you 510 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 2: gotta bet the Bears here. So I'm just gonna stay 511 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 2: away from it. I already missed the best of the 512 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 2: number on the Saints. This gets up to eight and 513 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,359 Speaker 2: a half nine like it is now, and it's still 514 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 2: that on Sunday. I'll throw a little taste on it. 515 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 2: But I just can't make this my five. 516 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: Clearly, you're overrating Bill Belichick as a head coach. Here's 517 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 1: fourteen games under five hundred in his career without Tom Brady, Seattle, 518 00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: Jesus Christ Seattle at Baltimore. 519 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 2: This is awful, awful takes this morning chat. I'm loving it. 520 00:25:55,640 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 2: You're just firing away. 521 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 1: Addle at Baltimore. We were talking about this game on Sunday. 522 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,119 Speaker 1: I still have yet to bet this game because I 523 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: cannot get myself to pull the trigger. Yeah, it's so 524 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: fucking hard. It's gone from five and a half to six. 525 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: You're saying that the wise guys and the sharp calls 526 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: are coming in on Baltimore. It just it's like everything 527 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: says take take the Seahawks. Everything. This is a a 528 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,160 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson who is terrible as a favorite of three 529 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:42,440 Speaker 1: or more. Pete Carroll is great as an underdog. Why 530 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 1: aren't we all in on Seattle here? 531 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 2: I don't know. I think it's just because the Rams 532 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,119 Speaker 2: have been playing so well, right, look, and that's the 533 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 2: thing they've just been They've played so well in the 534 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,360 Speaker 2: Seahawks just seem like a team that you don't really 535 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 2: know you're getting. Like you said, I think we did 536 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 2: the film Slash with Gino. It's like he's been inconsistent. 537 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 2: You'll have are really good back to back drives and 538 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 2: then he'll just disappear for two quarters. You're not getting 539 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 2: that really with Lamar. This year, Lamar has been really consistent, 540 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 2: and you're right, like, I don't know, should this be 541 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 2: our big balls bet? It's it's hard where it's like 542 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 2: I can't I can't avoid it, can't avoid the Seattle. 543 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 2: But it feels like the same scenario when the Colts 544 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 2: came and played the Ravens, remember that, where everyone was 545 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,400 Speaker 2: all over the Ravens and then somehow the Colts won 546 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 2: on like a last second field goal. And maybe that's 547 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 2: who this Ravens team is. They just beat the crap 548 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: out of you know, bad teams, where I guess they 549 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 2: did beat the crap out of the Lions too. Uh. 550 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 2: She can't really look at that point, but it's hard 551 00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 2: because they really had been one of the best teams 552 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 2: in football, the Ravens defensively, offensively, everything. They're just so 553 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 2: well coached. It's crazy this is up to six. It 554 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: really is crazy, crazy. 555 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,600 Speaker 1: That it's up to six. Also, don't forget in that 556 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 1: Lions game, the Ravens were not big favorites, right, the 557 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 1: number was much smaller. So like it was in it 558 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:01,960 Speaker 1: was with in a range where I think they I 559 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,400 Speaker 1: think it was two and a half if I'm not mistaken, 560 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:09,639 Speaker 1: And we loved Baltimore and so that to me is 561 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,400 Speaker 1: the range in which you want to bet on. Lamar 562 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 1: Jaction a short favorite it's a bigger number, like when 563 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,160 Speaker 1: it's over, when it's over three, it's just he hasn't 564 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 1: performed well. And that's exactly what happened with the Colts. 565 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 1: And Seattle's a better team than the Colts. And this 566 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 1: is a good spot for Pete Carroll. He's a good 567 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 1: coach and like the defense is pretty good. Did they 568 00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 1: just get better with Leonard Williams, Like you know, all 569 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 1: of a sudden, there's all these things flowing around. We 570 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 1: are having a hard time pulling on the trigger. I 571 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,480 Speaker 1: don't know if this is our big balls, because I 572 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: think our big balls is going to come from or Foxhole. 573 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: It's going to come from Eagles, Jets or the Bengals 574 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 1: Buffalo game. Ah is my is my feeling. But this 575 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 1: is because this game is really hard. Also, I don't 576 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: know that, Like does it take big balls to bet 577 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 1: in this game? 578 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 2: I would say yeah, because that's like you you already 579 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 2: haven't you can't do it, and I'm scared to do it. 580 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:17,000 Speaker 2: I would say yeah. And a lovely priest that kind 581 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 2: of hates us said, depends what contest number we get 582 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 2: for this one, Like I know we we uh we 583 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 2: it'd be hard for us to skip it at six 584 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 2: and a half in the contest, like that's a big, 585 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 2: big number. But like I say all the time, the 586 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 2: books are not our friends, and this number is stinky. 587 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 2: I assume it would be three and a half by kickoff, 588 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 2: not alway if the six, like that's such a key number. 589 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,719 Speaker 2: I'm looking at our site on our app right now 590 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 2: and it says like all the money is on Seattle 591 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 2: and it just keeps going up. Uh not good, not good. 592 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,960 Speaker 2: So that's terrible it is. It is weird when a 593 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 2: five and two team is catching six. I don't know 594 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 2: what to deal with it. So I'm cool that on 595 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,040 Speaker 2: making our big balls back because I'm just so lost 596 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 2: in this number. But I have taken a bunch of 597 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,440 Speaker 2: sixes like I took a bunch of five and a half. 598 00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 2: So now I'm taking a bunch of sixes and not 599 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 2: feeling great right now. But I don't know what I'm missing. 600 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 2: I don't know what I'm over looking to see Seattle team, 601 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,600 Speaker 2: what the books you're seeing here? But clearly they have 602 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 2: the reason for moving this all up to six, and 603 00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 2: I'm gonna probably learn the hard way. 604 00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: Comes Sunday, Minnesota, Atlanta. I apologize. We can't give people 605 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 1: a consensus like a hardcore yes, we love it, Like 606 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 1: I don't even know what we're putting in the contest 607 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 1: right now. Like it's it's a really hard fucking week. 608 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 1: It's a brutal week. Minnesota at Atlanta. So this number 609 00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 1: is at five. Atlanta Falcons are favored by five. Taylor 610 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: Heineke's in. We got Jared Hall playing quarterback for the Vikings, 611 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: probably his first career start. The only reason I think 612 00:30:56,800 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: I like Minnesota here is Taylor Heineke is a favorite. 613 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 1: It is just not the same as Taylor Heinekes a 614 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:05,760 Speaker 1: dog like the variants, and what he can do when 615 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: he's trying to come back versus trying to hold the 616 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,240 Speaker 1: lead and making a stupid pass when they should be 617 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:15,280 Speaker 1: you know, throwing it out of bounds. Is that is 618 00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke. And here's a stat which has been a 619 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 1: guiding light for us the past few weeks. Atlanta started 620 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:28,480 Speaker 1: as an underdog. They are now the favorite teams in 621 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: that spot forty three eighty three against the spread since 622 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. It's helped us avoid losses this year, maybe 623 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 1: not getting wins, but it helped us avoid losses. 624 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I got no read on it. I have no 625 00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 2: idea Minnesota. I think I'm with you chat where it's like, 626 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 2: I guess I'll take the four and a half just 627 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 2: because they're the dog and like you said, who is Heineke, 628 00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 2: you'd be catching that many points. But I'm with you. 629 00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 2: I got no no read on this game whatsoever. 630 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 1: India Carolina was Simon says, you had Carolina plus two 631 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: and a half. Another game, Indie open is the dog 632 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,120 Speaker 1: and is now the favorite. I feel great about this one, 633 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 1: right I loved Bryce Young looked much better against the Texans. 634 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 1: The play calling was much better against the Texans. They're 635 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: moving them out of the pocket, They're moving faster. I 636 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 1: don't think this Colts defense is very good right now? 637 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 1: Do you have anything to add? 638 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 2: No, you could grab the three. There's still one out there, 639 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 2: go grab it. It's just it's a spot play, like 640 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 2: we think the Carolina Panthers defense. They play way better 641 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 2: at home than offensively. I loved what I saw from 642 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 2: their new you know, the new The new play caller 643 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 2: to me was a big deal. I talked about all 644 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 2: the motion I saw. In fact, they're getting Bryce Shong 645 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 2: outside the pocket. Like, I just I loved all those 646 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,960 Speaker 2: things I saw. And you know this, this Colts team 647 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 2: has been incredible this year. Offensive. I think they're the 648 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,560 Speaker 2: only team of football. I'll have to go back and look, 649 00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 2: but I'm pretty sure they've scored more than twenty points 650 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 2: or twenty points or more in every game this season, 651 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 2: which is crazy. Like they've had huge injuries to Anthony, 652 00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 2: we're just in their number one quarterback, brought in Minshew, 653 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 2: and somehow the offense is still producing at a high level. 654 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible for the Colts and their head coach, which 655 00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 2: we talk all the time like this, this guy is 656 00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 2: a great play caller. So we're pretty much betting at 657 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,440 Speaker 2: the Panthers defense, which they've done all year, show up 658 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,320 Speaker 2: at home, is going to show up again. And I 659 00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 2: love the two and a half. I think it's such 660 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: a key number. Maybe they'll lose this game. Okay, maybe 661 00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: they will this Panthers team, but the fact that you 662 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 2: get three it right now still a couple of books. 663 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 2: It's like, how do you not grab that number on 664 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 2: this team that just plays better at home against a 665 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 2: team in Indy that they've not that they've been waiting 666 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,880 Speaker 2: for a letdown game. But we've kind of seen it 667 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 2: where they've struggled against good defenses like they're you can 668 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,479 Speaker 2: go and look on paper what they do against you know, 669 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 2: I'm not even to say Cleveland's a bad defense. I mean, 670 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 2: they did whatever they want against Cleveland, but teams that 671 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 2: run zone and teams that run man, the splits for 672 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 2: Minshew are huge. So Panthers at home defense, Chad, this 673 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,320 Speaker 2: is what I get to. We'll have in the contest 674 00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 2: at two and a half, even though the best number 675 00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,400 Speaker 2: out there is three. We only play contest lines here, 676 00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 2: so give me the two and a half. 677 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually feel really good about this one. You're right. 678 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,120 Speaker 1: Cult are the only team to score twenty points in 679 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 1: every game this season, nine straight games. It's the second longest. 680 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 1: The second longest streak right now is the Jaguars with 681 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 1: five games. All Right, we're getting into Foxhole, big balls territory. 682 00:34:35,640 --> 00:34:39,879 Speaker 1: Dallas at Philadelphia Eagles are a three point favorite. I'm 683 00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 1: a little squeamish on this. This was my exact decision. 684 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,120 Speaker 1: I know you've been waffling on this too. We've got 685 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,360 Speaker 1: a lot of noise on both sides of this game, 686 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:55,239 Speaker 1: with people liking Dallas a lot right now, what we're 687 00:34:55,239 --> 00:35:01,839 Speaker 1: hearing statistically, what they like about Dallas in uh, how 688 00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:06,040 Speaker 1: McCarthy has been calling plays for Dallas the past few games. 689 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:13,600 Speaker 1: Much more aggressive, much fewer runs on first down. Eagle's 690 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,920 Speaker 1: third luckiest team in the NFL for the luck rankings. 691 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 1: And then Evan shared this, Dak is twenty five and 692 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,480 Speaker 1: ten against the spread versus the NFC East. All that set, 693 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:29,920 Speaker 1: all that set, fly, Eagles Fly. 694 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you on it, but like Chad knows, 695 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,200 Speaker 2: I'm just I'm a little agitani about this one. I 696 00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:41,080 Speaker 2: don't think there's much value on the number. And I'm 697 00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 2: a little worried about Hurts his injury, a little worried 698 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:47,560 Speaker 2: about the Eagles secondary, but I feel like the Eagles 699 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 2: have such a huge advantage playing at home. Dak at Philly, 700 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 2: I know he's played well against us, but we kind 701 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 2: of had like a down you know, not down run, 702 00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,839 Speaker 2: but like we just we just have an consistent consistency 703 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,480 Speaker 2: at the QB position during Dak's tenure. So, yeah, we 704 00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,640 Speaker 2: won Super Bowl and then Wentz kind of fell off 705 00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:10,479 Speaker 2: a cliff there. We had a couple of dark years 706 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 2: there where he racked up the wins against us. I 707 00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 2: am shocked this number hasn't gone up to three and 708 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,319 Speaker 2: a half. I did think more money would come in 709 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,920 Speaker 2: on the Eagles and the public would come in on 710 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,640 Speaker 2: the Eagles, and they kind of have, but it's held firm. 711 00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 2: But it feels like just the same scenario when we 712 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 2: had the Dolphins, right the I thought everyone in the 713 00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,120 Speaker 2: world was gonna come in on Miami against the Eagles, 714 00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,640 Speaker 2: and you know, by game time they really hadn't. All 715 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,160 Speaker 2: the money was coming down the Eagles, and the books 716 00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 2: kind of held firm at the number. And you know, 717 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,080 Speaker 2: the Eagles what, they beat him by two touchdowns, so 718 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,799 Speaker 2: hoping for the same result. I'm with Chad, and like 719 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 2: you know, I'm a little worried that this is getting 720 00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:45,880 Speaker 2: up three and a half in our contest, which is 721 00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:50,839 Speaker 2: gonna be another tough conversation to have. But uh yeah, 722 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:55,920 Speaker 2: Eagles coaching wise, talent wise, the better team. Jalen Carter's 723 00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 2: back as well. He practiced in full yesterday, which is 724 00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 2: a big deal have him back plugging up the middle. Yeah, Chad, 725 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 2: I'm trying to get there with you. It's just right now, 726 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,080 Speaker 2: this is this is not one of my bigger bets 727 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,040 Speaker 2: of the week, Like I do have money on the Eagles, 728 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 2: but I am hesitant putting more down on it, just 729 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,759 Speaker 2: because I'm getting nothing about hurtsing this injury, Like you're 730 00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,439 Speaker 2: taking away his running ability and that's that's a big deal. 731 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,279 Speaker 2: Like the guy's ability to scramble outside the pocket. I 732 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 2: know he got away with it against Washington. I don't 733 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:25,920 Speaker 2: know if you'll better get away with that against Parses. 734 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,719 Speaker 2: I mean we I think that was you that picked 735 00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,440 Speaker 2: the Cowboys, was that two weeks ago to break down 736 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 2: their d line, And it's like they got three guys 737 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 2: there that all can get after the quarterback even if 738 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,759 Speaker 2: he was fully healthy, even though they weigh one hundred 739 00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,360 Speaker 2: pounds more than Hurts. Those dudes can catch them like 740 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,640 Speaker 2: they got some really strong, fasty tackles. And on the ends, 741 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 2: we already know what Parses can do. So there's if 742 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:48,000 Speaker 2: you're on the Cowboys side, I definitely can see you're 743 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 2: coming from. But I'm with Chad, like I believe in 744 00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:54,560 Speaker 2: the Eagle, especially here at home. Catching just three, we 745 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,920 Speaker 2: can't avoid it, can't can't avoid that number, and the 746 00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,000 Speaker 2: Eagles at home here, So I'll join you and take 747 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 2: the Eagles here Chad, all right. 748 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,480 Speaker 1: Well that's the exact decision. So our final two games are. 749 00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,160 Speaker 2: I got another game. We didn't talk about that. 750 00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 1: I love Oh all right, well let's talk about these 751 00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:10,839 Speaker 1: last two and then let uh let's throw it out 752 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,880 Speaker 1: of one in there. I might have missed it in 753 00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:19,359 Speaker 1: my notes. Buffalo at Cincy. You know what's interesting? So 754 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,200 Speaker 1: we love Cincy. On Sunday night at one and a half, 755 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,840 Speaker 1: it went up to two and a half. Did it 756 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:28,839 Speaker 1: get it got up to three? 757 00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,440 Speaker 2: I think the middleman, Chad Millman got it at three, right, 758 00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:32,880 Speaker 2: I got. 759 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,399 Speaker 1: It at three. Not the line is down at two. 760 00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:39,080 Speaker 1: It's funny. I had people texting me wondering why you 761 00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,719 Speaker 1: were against me trying to middle. They were surprised that 762 00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:44,440 Speaker 1: you didn't like my middle play. 763 00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:46,719 Speaker 2: Because I was just worried you were gonna be like, well, 764 00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 2: I don't want to take the Bengals now because I 765 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 2: want my middle That's what I was worried about. That 766 00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:50,400 Speaker 2: A lot of. 767 00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: That, like I don't care either way I win, anyway 768 00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 1: we choose, it doesn't matter to me. 769 00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:58,919 Speaker 2: Well I do. I'm only on the Bengals. I didn't 770 00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,720 Speaker 2: try to middle this one. But no, I'm just busting 771 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:07,120 Speaker 2: your bulls, Chad. I live for metals. Chad knows this. Yeah, 772 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,000 Speaker 2: another game we might be stepping it. It's like the 773 00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 2: super Chalky side. We're betting the most type team, the 774 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 2: best team in football right now in the Bengals, and 775 00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:20,319 Speaker 2: we're fading a Bills team that they are really bad 776 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 2: right now, Like their fans are excited about adding Rasull Douglas, 777 00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,240 Speaker 2: like a guy who was out of the league pretty 778 00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 2: much two years ago. Packers picked them up for nothing. 779 00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,160 Speaker 2: He played really well for them. He's kind of turned 780 00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,480 Speaker 2: it around and ended up being on their better corners 781 00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:39,360 Speaker 2: and they moved them to the Bills. I don't know 782 00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:43,799 Speaker 2: what to do with it, brother, Like I feel like 783 00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,280 Speaker 2: the since he's the right play. But you know, clearly 784 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,399 Speaker 2: some pros like the Bills. They're coming on another side 785 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,680 Speaker 2: and they've bet this down. But on paper everything, it's 786 00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,080 Speaker 2: like the Bengals feel like such a better team and 787 00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:59,000 Speaker 2: they're healthier. So once again, maybe we're getting caught. Me 788 00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,640 Speaker 2: and Chat are walking into it. But I just I 789 00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 2: cannot be talked out of the Bengals here. I just 790 00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,000 Speaker 2: love the Bengals and I love this number. 791 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I like the way the Bengals 792 00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,600 Speaker 1: have been playing. I like the way they've been playing defensively. 793 00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 1: I'm a little nervous about Trey Hendrickson. He banged up 794 00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,120 Speaker 1: his ankle against the Niners. Did not practice on Wednesday. 795 00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:21,520 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean he's not gonna be play. 796 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,160 Speaker 2: Josh Allen did in practice. 797 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,160 Speaker 1: Josh Allen did in practice. He's got injury right now 798 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,920 Speaker 1: since he is becoming one of our teams in the contest. 799 00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:30,680 Speaker 1: Are we in the foxhole here? 800 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,120 Speaker 2: At least if we lose money here, you're losing money 801 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,919 Speaker 2: on the Bengals and Joe Burrow where people that they're 802 00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,640 Speaker 2: gonna hate hate the game I love so Yeah, I'm 803 00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:42,160 Speaker 2: good with doing Cinci for Foxhole. You know me, regardless 804 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,720 Speaker 2: of what's going on, I'm a Foxhole guy. I commit 805 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:46,480 Speaker 2: to a team, I commit to a city. I'm a 806 00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 2: Foxhole guy. 807 00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,120 Speaker 1: All right, let's bring your game in last, because the 808 00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 1: other game that I want to talk about is the 809 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:51,920 Speaker 1: Chargers visiting the Jets. 810 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:52,719 Speaker 2: Yeah. 811 00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,640 Speaker 1: I fucking love the Jets here. You love the Jets here, 812 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 1: And the fact the line has moved against us feels 813 00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:00,560 Speaker 1: to me like we have to make this big balls 814 00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:02,600 Speaker 1: back of the week, right, all. 815 00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 2: Right, let's do it. 816 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:04,719 Speaker 1: I mean, how do we not? 817 00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:09,360 Speaker 2: Because yeah, again another game heavily opinionated. I know some 818 00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 2: pros they think the Chargers have it kind of got 819 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,400 Speaker 2: a right that Herbert's gotten healthier and he's he's playing 820 00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,080 Speaker 2: now one more confidence with that banged up finger. And 821 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,640 Speaker 2: my argument that's just the Bears defense. They make anyone 822 00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,880 Speaker 2: look like they've kind of found their groove and this 823 00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:29,880 Speaker 2: is a totally different world this Jets defense. And my 824 00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 2: biggest hesitation is, like, I know we did the luck 825 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,520 Speaker 2: ranking stuff. Are the Jets not the luckiest team of football? 826 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 1: Like Jets are the fifth I think the fifth luckiest 827 00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:40,920 Speaker 1: team in football. 828 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:43,680 Speaker 2: They gotta do something like that, Like you look at 829 00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:47,080 Speaker 2: their week one win against the Bills, extremely lucky. You 830 00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,279 Speaker 2: look at their win against the Eagles, extremely lucky. They're 831 00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,200 Speaker 2: winning the last week against the Giants like he needs 832 00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 2: so many little things. They literally hit that tying field 833 00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 2: goal with the second left after the other team's kicker 834 00:41:57,719 --> 00:41:59,239 Speaker 2: missed a field goal that would have made the game 835 00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,200 Speaker 2: impossible to I'm back on you know, maybe we're buying 836 00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,480 Speaker 2: high on the Jets and we're walking into it. But 837 00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:06,839 Speaker 2: Chad just said, I can't avoid it. Now that it's 838 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,520 Speaker 2: up to three and a half primetime game, with that defense, 839 00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,279 Speaker 2: I can see this losing by field goal. Cannot see 840 00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,680 Speaker 2: the Jets getting blown out here. So I'm right there 841 00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,560 Speaker 2: with you, Chad, like there's nothing we can do to 842 00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:22,400 Speaker 2: avoid this one three and a half. I gotta take it, big. 843 00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 1: Balls better the week. New York Jets at home Monday 844 00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:34,680 Speaker 1: Night Football, three and a half point underdogs against the 845 00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,920 Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers. Dude, we are stepping in it in 846 00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:43,080 Speaker 1: every way. We never we never bet a Monday night game. 847 00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,719 Speaker 1: We're better to gainst a quarterback we love on a 848 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,719 Speaker 1: team that's getting lucky. That's the kind of week it is, 849 00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:53,000 Speaker 1: like we're having to make really, really, really hard choices. 850 00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,960 Speaker 1: What is the game that I missed that you wanted 851 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:56,560 Speaker 1: to talk about? 852 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:04,160 Speaker 2: The Raider is? Oh God, come on, What's I'm waiting for? Stucky? 853 00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:07,160 Speaker 2: As little article about teams playing after the coaches gets fired, 854 00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,759 Speaker 2: I know it's not any really any type of beneficial 855 00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,680 Speaker 2: to the team, but I think this will be beneficial 856 00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,839 Speaker 2: to them. Like they they seem like they hated Josh 857 00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,799 Speaker 2: McDaniels and they all wanted a bad mouth and they 858 00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,880 Speaker 2: couldn't they're starting O'Connell here, the guy you love I 859 00:43:22,040 --> 00:43:26,200 Speaker 2: love so much, starting him over Jimmy g. Daniel Jones 860 00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,320 Speaker 2: is apparently trying to rush back and playing this game. 861 00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:33,640 Speaker 2: I love that as well. The fact that this numbers 862 00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:35,279 Speaker 2: come down so much. I believe the look ahead on 863 00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:37,759 Speaker 2: this was like five and now it's all the way 864 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,120 Speaker 2: down to one, one and a half. I'm just gonna 865 00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:44,160 Speaker 2: grab that value there on a Vegas team that we 866 00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,200 Speaker 2: say all the time they have talent, like this team 867 00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:48,560 Speaker 2: does have talent. I think the coaching has just been 868 00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:51,040 Speaker 2: what's holding them back. So maybe someday morning I'll be 869 00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:52,760 Speaker 2: able to convince you on it and get you there. 870 00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,560 Speaker 2: But it is one of the grosser plays of the 871 00:43:55,560 --> 00:43:59,240 Speaker 2: week because we're backing just a really bad Vegas team 872 00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:03,719 Speaker 2: and experience quarterback. But my real bet here is just 873 00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,399 Speaker 2: back in this Raiders defense. I think that's that's why 874 00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,760 Speaker 2: I really like hearing this matchup against his Giants offense 875 00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:11,799 Speaker 2: and Daniel Jones just turns the ball over and if 876 00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:14,520 Speaker 2: they win the turnover Battle of Vegas, I really feel 877 00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 2: like we're gonna get there. I don't know if you 878 00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,359 Speaker 2: saw Antonio Pierce, he's the guy that's taken over now 879 00:44:19,360 --> 00:44:22,719 Speaker 2: of the head coach of them. He just rings out 880 00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,359 Speaker 2: of that like great motivational guy, which in five weeks 881 00:44:25,360 --> 00:44:27,279 Speaker 2: they're all gonna be sick of him and hate hearing 882 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 2: from him. But in this first game, I like that 883 00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:32,359 Speaker 2: kind of spot, like the Jeff Saturday move right. Remember 884 00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:36,399 Speaker 2: last year we back Jeff Saturday in his first start 885 00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:37,600 Speaker 2: as a coach, and. 886 00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:40,800 Speaker 1: He went out right the line one and a half. 887 00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:42,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw. I think maybe it was Evam, I 888 00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,720 Speaker 2: don't know who it was. Some one posted that twenty 889 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,680 Speaker 2: two percent of his wins as a Raiders coach came 890 00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:50,280 Speaker 2: against the Patriots, which I just loved. That's your favorite 891 00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:54,600 Speaker 2: stattoo because Belichick's not a good coach, but it's it's 892 00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,680 Speaker 2: it's an ugly play I much. I think the fans 893 00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:01,200 Speaker 2: will much rather make the Bengals are Foxhole bet than this. 894 00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,239 Speaker 2: But I'm just telling people I can't avoid this one. 895 00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:07,319 Speaker 2: Like I got three really ugly bets this week. This 896 00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,239 Speaker 2: is one of them that bucks, the other one that 897 00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,080 Speaker 2: panthers the other one. It's just there's some ugly spots 898 00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,840 Speaker 2: this week. But I just I gotta take it, by. 899 00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:16,880 Speaker 1: The way, this is how bad of a week. It 900 00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:21,280 Speaker 1: is if your ugly bets are the Raiders, the Panthers 901 00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,640 Speaker 1: in the Bucks and you don't mention the Jets. So 902 00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,799 Speaker 1: that's the kind of week that we're struggling through here 903 00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:28,160 Speaker 1: to try to. 904 00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,920 Speaker 2: That's your four and three brother, but it's true. 905 00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:34,920 Speaker 1: But still still it's the Jets. It's Zach Wilson. I mean, 906 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,279 Speaker 1: let's not be unrealistic here. Reminder about our contest picks. 907 00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:44,319 Speaker 1: Simon and I typically enter our initial picks into the 908 00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,600 Speaker 1: contest website on Thursdays after the show, So Simon and 909 00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,719 Speaker 1: I will talk right after this is over. We're gonna 910 00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:51,400 Speaker 1: hung it out. We're going to tell each other that 911 00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,520 Speaker 1: we love each other, and then we're going to come 912 00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:55,719 Speaker 1: to consensus on the five picks. If you want to 913 00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,120 Speaker 1: see the unofficial picks we've entered in the contest before 914 00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,480 Speaker 1: they lock, just go to the contest site favorites dot 915 00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:04,960 Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com, search for the Phase five. That's us. 916 00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:08,439 Speaker 1: We have those picks by this afternoon. They will lock 917 00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:10,560 Speaker 1: on Sunday, because Simon and I will talk again on 918 00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:13,120 Speaker 1: Sunday to see if we change anything. But we will 919 00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,880 Speaker 1: come to a consensus today and put those in before 920 00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:19,400 Speaker 1: we get to the money Line Underdog Round Robin. Reminder 921 00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:23,720 Speaker 1: that the Week nine contest tiebreaker is total rushing yards. 922 00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:28,720 Speaker 1: On Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward 923 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,239 Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link 924 00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,560 Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode's description. 925 00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,200 Speaker 1: If you want a leg up in the contest, Good 926 00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:46,479 Speaker 1: luck to all. Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. Mo dog likes 927 00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:52,359 Speaker 1: your dog, Your dog likes mot dog, Simon, I would say, 928 00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:59,439 Speaker 1: Carolina Tampa Jets. 929 00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,799 Speaker 2: Jets, I mean, we got to get your commanders in there, 930 00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:07,920 Speaker 2: don't we Yeah? Should we go Seattle? Like I always 931 00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,200 Speaker 2: like throwing one big dog game. I know we don't 932 00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:14,320 Speaker 2: have a lot of them this week. Bears, I can't 933 00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:15,520 Speaker 2: do it, can't do it. 934 00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:21,720 Speaker 1: Well, if we're gonna like, that's one of the few 935 00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:24,880 Speaker 1: big favorites left, right, we don't want to take Arizona. 936 00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:29,360 Speaker 2: No, Let's do Seattle, all right, Let's do Seattle. 937 00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,120 Speaker 1: Why is that game scaring me more than any other game? 938 00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:35,880 Speaker 2: It's terrifying, man, our. 939 00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:40,960 Speaker 1: Money Line Underdog Round Robin. Right now, Carolina, Tampa Jets, 940 00:47:41,520 --> 00:47:46,720 Speaker 1: Washington Seattle. Make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza 941 00:47:46,719 --> 00:47:50,640 Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL. Part of your game day simon, 942 00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:54,319 Speaker 1: the clocks fall back this weekend. Does that mean a 943 00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:59,960 Speaker 1: whole extra hour for you to eat Little Caesars yesterday? 944 00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,160 Speaker 1: For sure? It does. Order online during our Pizza Pizza 945 00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,200 Speaker 1: pregame one hour before NFL games and get ready for 946 00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:10,400 Speaker 1: some football and fun. Choose your favorite Little Caesars pizza 947 00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,920 Speaker 1: or pick the toppings you crave. Signon, what do you 948 00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:21,000 Speaker 1: think about this motto I just invented before the show started? Idown? 949 00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:26,200 Speaker 1: If touchdowns make your pelvis thrust, be sure to order 950 00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:32,120 Speaker 1: crazy Crust. However you order your pizza, you win. And 951 00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:36,520 Speaker 1: speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient delivery or our 952 00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,720 Speaker 1: in store pizza portal pick up. So grab some friends 953 00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,719 Speaker 1: and enjoy a few slices during the game. Survivor pick 954 00:48:43,360 --> 00:48:54,240 Speaker 1: the Survivor Pool pick of the week Saints or Brown's. 955 00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's up to you. Like I was, I was 956 00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:00,800 Speaker 2: gonna go Browns just because they're in the hard Division. 957 00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:02,360 Speaker 2: I don't know what else we're gonna use them. But 958 00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:05,520 Speaker 2: you are you doing an actual Survivor contest? 959 00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,640 Speaker 1: Shad or now I'm out? I'm out of my contests? 960 00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,000 Speaker 2: Oh man? So I like I'm in it, and this 961 00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:12,719 Speaker 2: is a big money one. There's only a couple of 962 00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,719 Speaker 2: us left. And like I was going through it, we 963 00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:18,640 Speaker 2: got really lucky. Like early in the year we used 964 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,560 Speaker 2: the Giants in Washington because they played Arizona. I am 965 00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,080 Speaker 2: so happy looking back at that. 966 00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,000 Speaker 1: Oh my god. 967 00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:29,239 Speaker 2: So yeah, I have a bunch of options here. I'm 968 00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:32,799 Speaker 2: with you, like if it's I know, some people have 969 00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:34,520 Speaker 2: to lock it in. If you want to just play 970 00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,640 Speaker 2: it safe, you know exactly what quarterback are gowning against 971 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,160 Speaker 2: Ghost Saints. If you're like me, and you can submit 972 00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,120 Speaker 2: it Sunday morning, which I can. I can submit it, 973 00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,239 Speaker 2: you know, up to twelve thirty. So I'm I kind 974 00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,640 Speaker 2: of have a little bit of leniency here. I'm gonna 975 00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:49,840 Speaker 2: wait and see who the quarterback is for the Cleveland. 976 00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,160 Speaker 2: If it's Watson and it's going up against this rookie 977 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,160 Speaker 2: for Arizona, gotta do Cleveland. And if not, if it's 978 00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,040 Speaker 2: Kyler Murray coming in there, which doesn't really scare me 979 00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:01,240 Speaker 2: too much because it's his or start after a long rest, 980 00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,560 Speaker 2: But just to be safe, the fact I'm so close 981 00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,360 Speaker 2: now to actually win in this thing. There's only a 982 00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:07,880 Speaker 2: couple of guys left, I will switch to the Saints. 983 00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,440 Speaker 2: So for our one two plays, I'll put it on 984 00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:13,120 Speaker 2: Twitter on Sunday morning. It's gonna either be Saints or 985 00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,000 Speaker 2: the Browns. 986 00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,480 Speaker 1: Your biggest bets of the week right now. 987 00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:19,760 Speaker 2: I don't tell you what to do with your money, 988 00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:23,200 Speaker 2: don't fucking tell me what to do with mine, Okay, anstalingly, 989 00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,640 Speaker 2: I regret saying that that was a horrible thing to say. 990 00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:30,200 Speaker 2: I love y'all very much. Right now, it's Panthers. Shocking, 991 00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,360 Speaker 2: shocking to know one that's just such a typical bet 992 00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:37,279 Speaker 2: of this show. Tampa. Another game where it's like I'm 993 00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,920 Speaker 2: really back in the defense, believe in the defensive number, 994 00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:44,560 Speaker 2: and you know it's getting there. But Jets. And when 995 00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,479 Speaker 2: I moved to three and a half, I started betting 996 00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,719 Speaker 2: even more, which makes me a little nervous. I don't 997 00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:50,520 Speaker 2: respect my money, and they haven't moved it down, but 998 00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,640 Speaker 2: a bizarre number. They moved it up to three and 999 00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:53,520 Speaker 2: a half with the Jets. 1000 00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:55,719 Speaker 1: I can't avoid it all right, Before we get out 1001 00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,120 Speaker 1: of here, Action Network Director or Research Evan Abrams, the 1002 00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:01,600 Speaker 1: engine behind the rate stats and nuggets you here on 1003 00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,479 Speaker 1: the show and across our network. He's all the way 1004 00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:09,680 Speaker 1: back from Germany supersonic speed. Evan bring us the last word. 1005 00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:13,520 Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams. 1006 00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:15,240 Speaker 1: We're finished talking. 1007 00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,600 Speaker 3: Surprised you guys did use the Commanders and Survivor. Okay, 1008 00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:21,399 Speaker 3: So what a run the public is on? I feel 1009 00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,640 Speaker 3: like this needs to be discussed a little bit. Sixty 1010 00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:27,080 Speaker 3: four forty eight and five and the public is any team, 1011 00:51:27,239 --> 00:51:29,440 Speaker 3: fifty one percent of tickets are more. So it is 1012 00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,879 Speaker 3: that's sixty four to forty eight and five number best 1013 00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:33,600 Speaker 3: start through eight weeks since two thousand. 1014 00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:35,320 Speaker 2: And five, which is our full bet laps database. 1015 00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,399 Speaker 3: To go even further, thirty seven to twenty five and three, 1016 00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:42,760 Speaker 3: sixty percent of tickets are higher, also best and public 1017 00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:44,240 Speaker 3: sides after a team loss. 1018 00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:45,919 Speaker 2: So team loses, then. 1019 00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:47,640 Speaker 3: They're the public side and everyone's like, oh my god. 1020 00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:51,160 Speaker 3: They gotta win thirty two, seventeen and three against the 1021 00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:53,839 Speaker 3: spread this season. So it's been a crazy run. And 1022 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:57,000 Speaker 3: to think about this, the Dolphins and Lions have been 1023 00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,120 Speaker 3: public sides ten times or ten to zero against the 1024 00:51:59,160 --> 00:52:02,560 Speaker 3: spreads for this week. But every time the public rides 1025 00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,440 Speaker 3: that train seems to cover. Okay, so how about this one? 1026 00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,680 Speaker 3: I think this is the one Simon was talking about earlier. 1027 00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:12,080 Speaker 3: So the Raiders eight no to their team total under 1028 00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,319 Speaker 3: so far this season, only team in the NFL that 1029 00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,960 Speaker 3: are undefeated to the under, so no overs. 1030 00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:18,960 Speaker 2: For Las Vegas. 1031 00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:22,080 Speaker 3: But to talk about the fired note he was talking about, 1032 00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,800 Speaker 3: thirty five teams have fired their coach during the regular 1033 00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,480 Speaker 3: season since two thousand and three. They are sixteen and 1034 00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:31,080 Speaker 3: nineteen straight up, but nineteen and sixteen against the spread 1035 00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,880 Speaker 3: in their next game after the firing. Now you might 1036 00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,640 Speaker 3: say to yourself, okay, fifty four percent. It's not the 1037 00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:38,919 Speaker 3: best note ever. But if you think about it, those 1038 00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:42,759 Speaker 3: teams ninety and two thirty nine straight up twenty seven 1039 00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:45,840 Speaker 3: percent and one twenty two and two oh four thirty 1040 00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:49,160 Speaker 3: seven percent against the spread prior to the coaching change, 1041 00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,359 Speaker 3: So Raiders might get a little bump here. And Matt 1042 00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:53,960 Speaker 3: Mitchell asked for this, so I'll give it to you. 1043 00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,680 Speaker 3: Nineteen sixty nine. Since that date, Steelers have had three 1044 00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,480 Speaker 3: head coaches. Raiders are now on their fourth coach in 1045 00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:03,480 Speaker 3: the last three seasons, So got to toss that one 1046 00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:03,879 Speaker 3: in there. 1047 00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:05,000 Speaker 2: Let's go mad. 1048 00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:08,160 Speaker 3: And then finally, this is just for you guys. Home 1049 00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:11,160 Speaker 3: teams with a win percentage of twenty five percent or 1050 00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:14,360 Speaker 3: less who are favored by three and a half or more. Okay, 1051 00:53:14,920 --> 00:53:17,840 Speaker 3: thirty one forty eight and one against the spread last decade. 1052 00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:19,440 Speaker 2: That is New England this week. 1053 00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:21,719 Speaker 3: So I figured I toss it in there just to you. 1054 00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,960 Speaker 2: Know, I damn it, little grenade. 1055 00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:27,480 Speaker 1: Before you are, you are trying to drive a wedge 1056 00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:29,680 Speaker 1: between me and Simon. 1057 00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:31,000 Speaker 2: Honestly looked that up. 1058 00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:33,760 Speaker 3: Look that up mid episode because I was like, it's perfect, 1059 00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,040 Speaker 3: So enjoy that, man. 1060 00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:38,520 Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, that's that idea. 1061 00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:43,840 Speaker 1: V Thanks thanks very much, as always valuable insight. To 1062 00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:49,080 Speaker 1: recap the Foxhole Cincinnati minus two, the Big Balls, Jets 1063 00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,400 Speaker 1: plus three and a half exec decision, Eagles minus three. 1064 00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,799 Speaker 1: Simon says, Carolina plus two and a half our round 1065 00:53:54,880 --> 00:54:00,799 Speaker 1: Robin Carolina, Washington, Tampa Bay Jets, Seattle. Well, if we 1066 00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,040 Speaker 1: had to choose five right now, Simon, I don't know 1067 00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:03,759 Speaker 1: that we could do. 1068 00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:07,040 Speaker 2: It the phase five for now. 1069 00:54:07,560 --> 00:54:11,880 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, Carolina Jets. We'll have to see what the 1070 00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:15,240 Speaker 1: Eagles are at. We'll have to see what Cincinnati is at. 1071 00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:18,280 Speaker 1: I would say Cleveland if they're below eight, and maybe 1072 00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:21,799 Speaker 1: we change it if we get some quarterback news. Seattle. 1073 00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:26,640 Speaker 2: I don't know, Yeah, no, it's definitely a tough week 1074 00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:27,640 Speaker 2: to finalize our. 1075 00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:31,560 Speaker 1: Five we'll hack it out after the show and again 1076 00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:35,080 Speaker 1: check out favorites dot actionnetwork dot com and you'll see 1077 00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:37,480 Speaker 1: where we land for now, with the caveat that we 1078 00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:40,319 Speaker 1: might change it on Sunday. Simon and I will be 1079 00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:44,319 Speaker 1: back with our week nine recap episode live on the 1080 00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:48,440 Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page this Sunday. Every Sunday, seven thirty 1081 00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:53,160 Speaker 1: pm Eastern. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you 1082 00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:57,799 Speaker 1: get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, 1083 00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:02,960 Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Special congratulations 1084 00:55:03,440 --> 00:55:08,160 Speaker 1: to Matt Ford the Ford family for the new baby. 1085 00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:14,880 Speaker 1: I say that because Matt Ford is the originator of 1086 00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:19,280 Speaker 1: our sign off phrase. Until Sunday night, seven thirty Eastern, 1087 00:55:20,000 --> 00:55:31,839 Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If 1088 00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,480 Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 1089 00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,399 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 1090 00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:38,280 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler