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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job spectacular. I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to pull,

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Speaker 4: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs with me or Shawn Corner and Chris

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Speaker 2: Raybon sewn is the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics.

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Speaker 2: Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the Action

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Speaker 2: Network and they are two of the best fantasy football

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Speaker 2: rankers in the business. Chris, it is an afternoon. Sometimes

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Speaker 2: you a little bit chippy in the afternoon. How are

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Speaker 2: you doing?

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Speaker 3: Is it really that I'm chippy? Or are you just

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Speaker 3: wrong about Jay Sternberger and aj doing?

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Speaker 2: Why can't it be both?

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Speaker 3: This is what the people want to hear. Now we're

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Speaker 3: going to tell them who to die. They want to

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Speaker 3: hear us get at each other.

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Speaker 2: And also joining us is good friend Matt Harmon, a

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Speaker 2: football writer in analyst for Yahoo Sports and the creator

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Speaker 2: of Reception Perception. Matt, thanks for joining us. How is

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Speaker 2: it going my pleasures? Thank you so much for having me.

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Speaker 4: I'm a little bummed out that, you know, like, Chris

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Speaker 4: has a great title, You've got a great title, Friedman.

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Speaker 4: Sean probably has the best title of all three of you, guys.

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Speaker 4: I don't have a title.

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Speaker 5: I know.

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Speaker 4: At one point when I got hired, they're like, what

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Speaker 4: would you like your title to be? And I just,

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Speaker 4: you know, it's like, I don't really care. So now

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Speaker 4: I guess I'm just I'm dealing with that for the

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Speaker 4: rest of my career. But anyways, in a general point,

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Speaker 4: besides the fact that I'm bummed out about the title thing,

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Speaker 4: I'm happy to be here with you guys.

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Speaker 2: Let's be honest, titles they don't really matter. No one cares.

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Speaker 2: At least that's what I tell myself because I don't

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Speaker 2: have a title. Go to Sean's. But anyway, I'm just

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Speaker 2: gonna say titles don't matter. They're irrelevant. All right. It's

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Speaker 2: good to have you back on the pod. We have

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Speaker 2: recently had Evan Silva, Ian Hardens, and Denny Carter on

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Speaker 2: to talk about fantasy quarterbacks and tight ends. Great episodes,

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Speaker 2: check them out. In this episode, we were talking with

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Speaker 2: Matt about his approach to the wide receiver position in

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Speaker 2: fantasy and we're getting his thoughts on the top wide

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Speaker 2: receivers by average draft position. If you like what you

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Speaker 2: hear it, give us that five star rating, leave a review.

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Speaker 2: We would appreciate it. Gentlemen, Let's get into it. Matt,

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Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on how to approach

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Speaker 2: the wide receiver position in fantasy for twenty twenty. When

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Speaker 2: are you kind of looking to load up on wide receivers.

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Speaker 4: I feel like the consensus this year has been that

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Speaker 4: you want to hammer running backs early and that you

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Speaker 4: want to draft out of that big, meaty portion of

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Speaker 4: wide receivers in the middle rounds that are very exciting.

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Speaker 4: A lot of guys have breakout potential, and typically I've

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Speaker 4: been in on that. I don't know about you, guys, though,

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Speaker 4: I always have. You know, this pit in my stomach

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Speaker 4: if I don't leave the first three four rounds with

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Speaker 4: one guy that I could see having top five upside

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Speaker 4: and I think that it's great to combine a core

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Speaker 4: of players that are gonna get a decent amount of volume,

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Speaker 4: guys that can definitely hit that maybe low end wide

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Speaker 4: receiver one in a great situation, or you know, at

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Speaker 4: least can be solid wide receiver twos and kind of

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Speaker 4: form that committee. But again, I still, even in early drafts,

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Speaker 4: have been unable to resist the temptation of several of

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Speaker 4: these top twelve guys that we're gonna be talking about today.

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Speaker 4: All right, well, you're the creator of reception perception. Can

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Speaker 4: you talk a little bit about your route running charting methodology,

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Speaker 4: the factors you focus on in how your process has

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Speaker 4: changed or evolved since you started. Sure, so, reception perception

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Speaker 4: is the as you mentioned, route running methodology that I

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Speaker 4: developed six years ago, which is great now that we've

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Speaker 4: got six years worth of debt, we really know. I

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Speaker 4: think now what reception perception tells us and what it

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Speaker 4: doesn't tell us. You know, there are statements that I

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Speaker 4: made about results three four years ago that I would

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Speaker 4: definitely not make now, which again that's just the be

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Speaker 4: of sample size. We all love that when we're looking

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Speaker 4: at data, but reception perceptions really trying to do is

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Speaker 4: to isolate the wide receiver from all of the outside variables,

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Speaker 4: because you know, you guys know this, Everyone listening knows this.

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Speaker 4: In order for a wide receiver to accrue production, so

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Speaker 4: much has to go right.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 4: Not only does the quarterback have to throw them an

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Speaker 4: accurate pass, they've got to decide to target them in

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Speaker 4: the first place. The play call's got to even just

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Speaker 4: if it's a rollout, you know, and the other guys

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Speaker 4: on the left side of the field, the play rolls right,

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Speaker 4: they're probably taken out of that equation, or at least

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Speaker 4: the odds that they're going to get the pass just

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Speaker 4: completely goes downhill. So all those other factors go into

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Speaker 4: wide receiver stat accruing. But I think the one thing

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Speaker 4: that the wide receiver can control is getting open, defeating

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Speaker 4: man coverage, getting open versus zone, getting off the line

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Speaker 4: of scrimmage, versus press. So that's really what reception perception

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Speaker 4: is all about, trying to decide who's the best at

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Speaker 4: defeating all those different type of coverages. And I'm the

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Speaker 4: psycho that gets to go in and over an eight

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Speaker 4: game sample chart every single route that they run in

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Speaker 4: order to find out who the best route runners are

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Speaker 4: Where do these guys succeed on the field, again trying

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Speaker 4: to isolate them so much from the outside variables, And

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Speaker 4: I think the thing the process really hasn't changed all

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Speaker 4: that much, which I think is the is the beauty

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Speaker 4: of it is that it's been consistent and been the

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Speaker 4: same for six years. So we can compare Odell Beckhams

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Speaker 4: twenty fourteen season to his twenty nineteen season through reception perception,

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Speaker 4: and we know we're mostly looking for the same things.

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Speaker 4: But I think what has evolved is not only just

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Speaker 4: how wide the sample size is now and how much

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Speaker 4: you know, how much better the data is now than

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Speaker 4: it was in twenty fourteen twenty fifteen. I think it's

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Speaker 4: also just one thing I would say is that I've

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Speaker 4: become almost more radical about my approach to position and

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Speaker 4: deciding like who is good and who is not. I

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Speaker 4: know this is like it's and I don't mean this

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Speaker 4: to like I'm the only one with the answers, I'm

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Speaker 4: the only one with the skeleton key, because it's definitely

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Speaker 4: not the case. I just I think that so much

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Speaker 4: of what goes into production has so much other noise

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Speaker 4: into it that I've almost become, like I said, more

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Speaker 4: radical about it. The only way to find out how

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Speaker 4: good these guys is is to isolate them in their

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Speaker 4: own environment, and that's very hard to do. I wouldn't

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Speaker 4: recommend that anybody else does it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, mister wide Receiver Whisper, since you are the guy

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Speaker 2: with the skeleton key, I want your opinion, since you

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Speaker 2: have not just hours, not just days, I would say

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Speaker 2: weeks and months of actually grinding tape and looking at

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Speaker 2: these guys in depth. The wide receivers outside of the

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Speaker 2: Top twelve, those are the guys we were talking about

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Speaker 2: in our next episode. Out of those guys, who is

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Speaker 2: your favorite?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was almost kind of bummed that you invited

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Speaker 4: me on for the Top twelve episode because I think

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Speaker 4: there's so many exciting players outside the top twelve to

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Speaker 4: talk about, especially the group from they came in as

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Speaker 4: rookies last year, the twenty nineteen wide receiver class. I

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Speaker 4: feel like I've said this on every podcast so far

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Speaker 4: that I've been on, that is such an exciting group

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Speaker 4: I think, not just for this year, but for many

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Speaker 4: seasons to come. But my favorite of those guys, and

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Speaker 4: my answer to this question is definitely Terry McLaurin from Washington.

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Speaker 4: I don't want to leave a draft without taking him

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Speaker 4: in at whatever costs it takes, because I think he

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Speaker 4: has superstar ability. When you look at him in reception perception,

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Speaker 4: he's top thirty five in both success rate versus man

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Speaker 4: and press coverage all time. That's going back the last

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Speaker 4: six years, like I mentioned, so he's a route running savant.

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Speaker 4: I think he gets open at all levels of the field,

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Speaker 4: and you also look at his ability to win spectacular catches.

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Speaker 4: His contested catch rate is incredible. He does remind me.

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Speaker 4: I think he probably has the second best rookie season

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Speaker 4: in reception perception after Odell Beckhams twenty fourteen, which we

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Speaker 4: know was so explosive. Haskins is probably going to be

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Speaker 4: just passable enough in this coming season where he can

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Speaker 4: feed McLaurin a ton of volume and end up getting

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Speaker 4: him to a really high fantasy finish. So he's definitely

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Speaker 4: my favorite guy outside of the top twelve.

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Speaker 2: If it's not McLaurin, who's the one wide receiver you've

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Speaker 2: gotten the most of in fantasy drafts this year?

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Speaker 4: I think it depends when we're talking like middle or

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Speaker 4: late late rounds. I keep finding myself drafting Anthony Miller

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Speaker 4: from the Chicago Bears. I'm worried that the shoulder situation

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Speaker 4: is not is not a great long term thing, But

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Speaker 4: I think he's set up so well to be a

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Speaker 4: one be you know, a number two guy with Alan

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Speaker 4: Robinson and the rest of that pass catcher core in

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Speaker 4: Chicago's it's terrible. We're talking about Jimmy Graham. We're talking

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Speaker 4: about Jay Sternberger. The guy that the Packers didn't want

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Speaker 4: to bring back was Jimmy Graham because he's dust. They

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Speaker 4: paid him a bunch of money. Their wide receiver three

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Speaker 4: position might be Ted Ginn. I mean, give me a break.

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Speaker 4: I think that Anthony Miller is in a really good

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Speaker 4: position to potentially push for one hundred targets, and you

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Speaker 4: can get him way, way way late in drafts, especially

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Speaker 4: when it comes to like August and seasonal league stuff

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Speaker 4: like that, people will definitely be off of him.

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Speaker 3: I'm cheating here and giving you two.

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Speaker 4: I think the guy in the middle rounds that I

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Speaker 4: keep coming back to is Marquise Brown from the Ravens.

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Speaker 4: Another guy that I think has the ability to win

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Speaker 4: at all levels of the field, paired with the MVP

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Speaker 4: and this past year, I don't think there's really any

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Speaker 4: holes in his profile except he's not going to have

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Speaker 4: a great target ceiling. We know that because of the

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Speaker 4: offense that he plays in. But I think he's so

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Speaker 4: he's at an affordable price right now, He's so cheap

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Speaker 4: that I think he's a great bet there.

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Speaker 2: All right, who's the one wide receiver you are most

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Speaker 2: looking to fade? And maybe that's one of the guys

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Speaker 2: that we're actually gonna talk about coming up in a

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Speaker 2: little bit, and so it's totally fine, But who are

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Speaker 2: you looking to stay absolutely away from this year?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna chete again and give you two answers,

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Speaker 4: actually going to really give you four answers because it's

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Speaker 4: two wide receiver corps that I'm avoiding this year. One

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Speaker 4: of them we are going to talk about. I've really

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Speaker 4: not found myself drafting the Bucks very often this year

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Speaker 4: because they're inflated price, a lot of questions about the.

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Speaker 3: Offense, which I hate.

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Speaker 4: I hate to say that because I'm a long time

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Speaker 4: Chris Godwin guy, going back to his days at Penn State.

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Speaker 4: I hate to not draft him this year, but I

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Speaker 4: will just continue to look back at the good memories

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Speaker 4: from last year, and also there for Mike Evans who

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Speaker 4: probably not taken him. And I really haven't found myself

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Speaker 4: drafting the Rams guys either. I know Woods is a

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Speaker 4: popular guy in the industry. I think Woods is a

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Speaker 4: very solid player. I just have so many questions about

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Speaker 4: where a guy's go to be deployed in this offense.

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Speaker 4: Is this even a good offense? I think Woods is

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Speaker 4: at a decent price, but again, there's just always somebody

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Speaker 4: I like better when it comes time for his ADP range.

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Speaker 3: But I haven't found myself taking.

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Speaker 2: All Right, We're definitely gonna talk about Godwin and Evans later.

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Speaker 2: Two interesting guys. Let's talk first about Michael Thomas, who

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Speaker 2: is really in a tier unto himself, normally going off

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Speaker 2: the board in drafts anywhere from pick number five to

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Speaker 2: pick number seven, just kind of depending on how heavy

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Speaker 2: people want to go at the top with running backs,

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Speaker 2: but clearly the first wide receiver off the board. I

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Speaker 2: really don't think a strong case, or at least a

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Speaker 2: compelling case can be made for another wide receiver as

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Speaker 2: the number one guy who should be going at the

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Speaker 2: position has led the league with one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: five one hundred and forty nine receptions over the past

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Speaker 2: two years. Matt, when you are looking at Thomas through

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Speaker 2: the lens of reception perception, what do you see? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I hate that there's like a weird argument on Twitter

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Speaker 4: about is Michael Thomas actually good? Because I think he

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Speaker 4: has been an elite number one dominant receiver. I think

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Speaker 4: like he's not just a stat compiler, he's not just

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Speaker 4: a target compiler. He's getting all of these targets because

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Speaker 4: he's not only so good, he's so much better than

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Speaker 4: pretty much everybody else in that offense. And I think

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Speaker 4: reception perception would show you that this is an elite receiver.

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Speaker 4: He owns the number one success rate versus man coverage

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Speaker 4: score over the last six years. From his twenty eighteen season,

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Speaker 4: he was right back up there again last year. He

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Speaker 4: wins at all levels of the field, elite at getting

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Speaker 4: off the line of scrimmage versus press. I don't think

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Speaker 4: that there's any really holes in his game. I will say, though,

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Speaker 4: he's not my top ranked receiver this year, but we

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Speaker 4: will talk a little bit more about that when we

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Speaker 4: get to the guy who is, and maybe I'll try

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Speaker 4: to make a compelling case, since he said there's no

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Speaker 4: compelling case, but nevertheless love Thomas. I don't think that

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Speaker 4: if you take Thomas number one, you're making any sort

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Speaker 4: of mistake or you're gonna lose your fantasy league because

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Speaker 4: you took Thomas ahead of the other guy that I

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Speaker 4: have ranked there. But again, I think that there is

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Speaker 4: no valid argument to be made from an on field,

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Speaker 4: on film perspective that he's anything other than a true

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Speaker 4: elite number one X receiver.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so I will say, and this will undermine what

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Speaker 2: I said earlier. I do have in the rankings I

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Speaker 2: would have Thomas number one. I actually have another guy

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Speaker 2: projected with a medium projection higher than Thomas, but that

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean that I would actually draft him because I

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Speaker 2: think he actually has maybe a little more downside risk

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Speaker 2: relative to Thomas. And so that's the way I'm able

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Speaker 2: to sort of split the baby there. And maybe the

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Speaker 2: guy that I have projected number one is the guy

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Speaker 2: that you actually have ranked number one. But Sean, I

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Speaker 2: want to kick it to you and get your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on Thomas. Over the past four years, he has negative

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Speaker 2: nine rushing yards, so clearly that's the one negative about him.

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Speaker 2: But what do you think of about Thomas? Is he

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Speaker 2: locked in for you as the number one guy?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he's locked in as the number one guy for me.

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Speaker 5: I think just really the question with him is where

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Speaker 5: do you take him overall? And I would say, you know,

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Speaker 5: taking him fifth overall makes sense, and especially if we're

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Speaker 5: talking full PPR, I don't really think there's an argument

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Speaker 5: that he's number one.

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Speaker 3: You know, Ted Gin and tray Kwon.

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Speaker 5: Smith, they're very low targets per rent run kind of guys.

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Speaker 5: I think Emmanuel Sanders coming in is going to trip

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Speaker 5: away a little bit at MT's you know, massive target share,

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Speaker 5: but not enough to really lower his projections below anybody

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Speaker 5: in my model. So I haven't projected around one hundred

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Speaker 5: and sixteen receptions this year, which I think is fair

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Speaker 5: and I think it's worth pointing out. I always love

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Speaker 5: pointing this out. By the way, without his starting quarterback

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Speaker 5: last year in weeks three through seven, he was still

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Speaker 5: the wide receiver one with Teddy Bridgewater. So I think

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Speaker 5: that's an important thing to always distinguish about these receivers

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Speaker 5: is if they can still be elite without their starting QB.

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Speaker 5: And you know MT is certainly in that category. So

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Speaker 5: I think he's very safe. I'm curious to hear who

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Speaker 5: Matt has ranked over I doubt I'm going to disagree

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Speaker 5: with it too much. If if you want to take

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Speaker 5: somebody ahead of them, so be it. But mt will

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Speaker 5: definitely be if I'm going to take a wide receiver,

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Speaker 5: he will be the top guy just because of his

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Speaker 5: consistency and just you know, he's a lock for you know,

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Speaker 5: over one hundred and ten receptions in my opinion. So

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Speaker 5: that's that's why I would be willing to take him

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Speaker 5: fifth overall.

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Speaker 2: Raymond on The Serious Show, you know, we've talked to

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Speaker 2: him about drafting strategies, and on the show you've mentioned

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Speaker 2: the idea that if you don't go with Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 2: number one, Michael Thomas is the guy that, you know,

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Speaker 2: for just strategic reasons in terms of how you want

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Speaker 2: to build your roster, you go with Michael Thomas that

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Speaker 2: he's actually in the running for the number one pick,

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Speaker 2: and you know, if not number one, maybe you take

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Speaker 2: him as high as number two. Where are you on

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Speaker 2: Michael Thomas? Since we've had that conversation, do you think

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Speaker 2: there's actually a case to be made for taking him

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Speaker 2: number one.

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Speaker 6: I don't really to be honest with you, because I

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Speaker 6: think Christian McCaffrey's just so far ahead of everyone else

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Speaker 6: in fantasy.

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Speaker 3: I mean, he outscored everyone.

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Speaker 6: By one hundred points in most formats last year. But

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Speaker 6: to your point, for strategic reasons, if you're fading McCaffrey,

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Speaker 6: if you're fading a running back position for some odd

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Speaker 6: reason at number one overall, like don't take another running back.

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Speaker 3: Instead of McCaffrey, Like that's just absurd.

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Speaker 6: So that means that you're essentially betting on the fact

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Speaker 6: that running backs get injured more than wide receivers, you know.

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Speaker 6: In that and you're going contrarian, then you have to

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Speaker 6: take Michael Thomas because he's the only guy that, in

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Speaker 6: my opinion, could get close and I think he is

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Speaker 6: in a tier above the other wide receivers. So yeah,

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Speaker 6: I'm curious to hear you guys's takes on.

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Speaker 3: Who should be number one. But you look at Michael Thomas.

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Speaker 6: His rookie year ninety two catches for over eleven hundred

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Speaker 6: yards and then he's never looked back from there.

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Speaker 3: You know, that was his looe.

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Speaker 6: In terms of his career, he's had nine touchdowns and

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Speaker 6: three of for seasons. I mean, he's on a fast

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Speaker 6: track to.

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Speaker 3: The Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 6: And to Shawn's point, if his quarterback goes down, not

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Speaker 6: only has he proved he can produce as a backup,

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Speaker 6: but gets who his backup is going to be. This year,

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Speaker 6: jameis the guys that propelled not just Mike Evans and

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Speaker 6: Chris Godwin to top five seasons.

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Speaker 3: You know per game while they were healthy.

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Speaker 6: But Rashad Perriman into relevance yet again for after Peerrilman

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Speaker 6: caught eleven passes.

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Speaker 3: For the first you know, three quarters of the season.

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Speaker 6: So there's really no holes for me in Michael Thomas's

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Speaker 6: you know, profile, And I think that after McCaffrey's off

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Speaker 6: the board, if you're in a full PPR league again,

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Speaker 6: if you want to be a little bit contrarian, you know,

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Speaker 6: running back to do get hurt a little bit more.

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Speaker 6: And you know, Michael Thomas is a guy that caught

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Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty balls last one hundred and forty

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Speaker 6: nine balls last year. I think you could make the

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Speaker 6: case for him number two, and I wouldn't argue with you.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about this tier of wide receivers

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Speaker 2: after Michael Thomas and Matt I'm sure one of these

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Speaker 2: guys has to be the one that you were thinking

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Speaker 2: of as the number one wide receiver. Normally we're seeing

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Speaker 2: DeVante Adams as the second wide receiver off the board.

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Speaker 2: I think that makes a lot of sense. He was

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Speaker 2: number two last year if you count the playoffs in

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Speaker 2: two point sixty one yards per route, number one with

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Speaker 2: forty receiving touchdowns over the past four years. Of course,

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Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill is in the running there. He's normally the

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Speaker 2: third guy off the board. He has an outrageously high

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Speaker 2: ten point six yards per target over the past three years.

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Speaker 2: DeAndre Hopkins is someone not to be ignored. First team

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Speaker 2: All Pro wide receiver in each of the past three seasons.

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Speaker 2: Of course, there are questions about his situation. New quarterback,

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Speaker 2: new team now with the Cardinals Julio Jones. He's the

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Speaker 2: guy that I actually have projected number one, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and two point eight yards per game since twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 2: That is just almost unfathomable. He has nine nine point

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Speaker 2: one yards per game since twenty eighteen, and that's actually

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Speaker 2: more than what Michael Thomas has done over that stretch.

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Speaker 2: Michael Thomas has ninety seven point eight yards per game

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Speaker 2: over the past two seasons. So even though Thomas has

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Speaker 2: led the league in each of the past two years

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Speaker 2: in receptions, Julio over that time actually has more yards

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Speaker 2: per game. Matt Which one of these guys is your

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Speaker 2: number one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't have to wait long for me. It

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Speaker 4: is DeVante Adams this year. And I'm actually running it

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Speaker 4: back from last year when he was my wide receiver

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Speaker 4: one rank going into the year. So, you know, maybe

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Speaker 4: a little bit of takelock, but I don't think so,

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Speaker 4: because I think Adams number one. I think you have

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Speaker 4: to have a unique confluence of events to have the

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Speaker 4: season that Michael Thomas had last year. And I don't

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Speaker 4: think that anybody's like you said, Sean, no one's gonna

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Speaker 4: project him for one hundred and forty plus catches this year.

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Speaker 4: But I think for something like that to come together

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Speaker 4: for a wide receiver, it has to be very unique.

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Speaker 4: Adams has that sort of situation this year. Number one.

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Speaker 4: I think he is a good enough player, Like I

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Speaker 4: think he is as talented of a route runner, as

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Speaker 4: a talented as a separator as anybody in the league.

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Speaker 4: Whenever I think about DeVante Adams. I always come back

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Speaker 4: to this reception perception.

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Speaker 2: Note.

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Speaker 4: In twenty fourteen, Adams finished with a forty seven percent

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Speaker 4: success rate verst Man coverage. That was at the second percentile.

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Speaker 4: You fast forward to twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen, he's

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Speaker 4: up at the ninety ninth and the ninety sixth percentile.

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Speaker 4: I mean that is from the literal bottom all the

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Speaker 4: way to the top. There's no wide receiver that I've

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Speaker 4: ever seen in the six years of doing this to

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Speaker 4: make any sort of dramatic jump like that. Usually a

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Speaker 4: dramatic jump for a wide receiver is like maybe ten

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Speaker 4: percent of a jump from you know, their rookie year

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Speaker 4: to maybe their second or third year, So unprecedented jump

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Speaker 4: to being one of the in my opinion, elite wide

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Speaker 4: receivers in the NFL. There's obviously a bit of decline

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Speaker 4: from the quarterback position in Green Bay, but I think

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Speaker 4: Rogers is still good enough to absolutely pummel Adams with volume.

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Speaker 4: Considering you know, we're talking about Jase Sternberger, Alan Lazard,

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Speaker 4: you know, Devin Funchess out. It's just mostly a bunch

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Speaker 4: of goofballs behind Adams at that wide receiver depth chart.

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Speaker 4: I think he could easily lead the league in targets.

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Speaker 4: He's a proven touchdown score. I think he has everything

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Speaker 4: that you want in the profile of the number one

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Speaker 4: receiver in fantasy, and it starts with just how good

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Speaker 4: he is, but also everything else I think will come

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Speaker 4: together from a volume perspective.

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Speaker 2: Sean, you and Raymond both have Tyreek Hill number two

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Speaker 2: ahead of DeVante Adams. What do you see out of

437
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: Hill that makes you bump him up just a little

438
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 2: bit ahead of Adams.

439
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 5: Well, for me, it's kind of a dependent on scoring system.

440
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 5: So standard and half PPR, I have Hill number two.

441
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 5: I think once you introduce full PPR, I would actually

442
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 5: have DeVante Adams number two. So that's an element that

443
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 5: differentiates these guys. But with Tyreek Hill, I think it's

444
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 5: more investing in this Chiefs offense. We've talked about before,

445
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,439
Speaker 5: but the ceiling for this offense this here is you know,

446
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 5: breaking NFL records. So anytime in a situation where there's

447
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 5: a Chiefs player up for grabs, I usually defer to

448
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 5: the Chiefs player. And last year, you know, we we

449
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 5: only saw Hill and Mahomes play nine games together. And

450
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 5: it's important again to point out that Tyreek is not

451
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 5: just a byproduct of Patrick Mahomes. He was the wide

452
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,479
Speaker 5: receiver six when Matt Moore filled in for two games.

453
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 5: Those things I think are important to point out. But

454
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 5: you know, with both of them combined, it's you know

455
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 5: that the ceiling is still probably unseen yet. So I

456
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 5: think going to this year, it's just a way to

457
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 5: always invest in the Chiefs whenever possible. With Hill and Adams,

458
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,959
Speaker 5: you know, I agree with Matt. You know, Adams is

459
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 5: guaranteed a massive target share. I mean we joke about

460
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 5: Jay Stenberger where that's kind of the point, right where

461
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,800
Speaker 5: else are these targets gonna go? So and especially with

462
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 5: Aaron Rodgers, I'm assuming he's been playing mad all year.

463
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 5: I think it was Raybaund that even said, you know,

464
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 5: he's just gonna force the ball to Adams, even more

465
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 5: so that I can get behind that narrative as well.

466
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 5: So again, I think all three of these guys are

467
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 5: essentially in the same tier I get talk about later,

468
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 5: but I have Hopkins a tier below that. Yes, but

469
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,880
Speaker 5: you really can't go wrong with any of these three.

470
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 5: And just real quick about Julio Jones. You know he's

471
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 5: entering his age thirty one season, I fully expect him

472
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 5: to have a monster season. I think maybe next year

473
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 5: is where we start to really see the decline, especially

474
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 5: with a guy of his size, you know, age thirty two,

475
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 5: age thirty three is typically when wide receivers like him

476
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,880
Speaker 5: really start to drop off. So I am expecting him

477
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 5: to continue, you know, the massive production we're used to,

478
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 5: but there is a chance that even starting this year,

479
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,160
Speaker 5: he could start.

480
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 3: To slip just a little bit.

481
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 5: So that's why I'm more interested in investing in guys

482
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 5: like Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst who kind of benefit

483
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 5: from Julio Jones present to begin with. But you know,

484
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,119
Speaker 5: I'm typically gravitating towards Devonte Adams retire killing this.

485
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 2: Year, Raybond, you have Julio Jones number three and then

486
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 2: DeVante number four. Can you talk a little bit about Julio.

487
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think Julio is a guy you mentioned the

488
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 6: yardage is always going to be there. I do think

489
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 6: that we're gonna start to see a steady bit of decline,

490
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 6: but a decline for Julio was so minuscule at this point.

491
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 6: I mean, last year was the first time in six

492
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 6: years that he didn't get fourteen hundred yards and he

493
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 6: got one thousand, three hundred and ninety four.

494
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 3: He was sixty yards short of that.

495
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 6: He's not missing games and he's going to see a

496
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 6: massive target share. But we did to see we did

497
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 6: see his target chairs drop off a little bit last

498
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 6: year compared to years past. You know, maybe that was

499
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 6: just because he landed threw so much. They for fifty

500
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 6: one passes more than any other team in the league,

501
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 6: that it's just natural for the ball to be spread

502
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 6: around a little bit more. But nevertheless, I like Julio

503
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 6: over Adams because I think when you look at both

504
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 6: of them, Juio he has a track record I mean

505
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 6: fourteen hundred yards or just short of it for the

506
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 6: last six years. Davante has one one thousand yard season

507
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 6: in his entire career. You know, So just from that perspective,

508
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 6: I think, you know, the targets in terms of the

509
00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 6: floor and ceiling very similar. The track recordduction is in

510
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 6: favor of Julio. I think the talent levels are at

511
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 6: this point pretty similar. But and Julio is a little older.

512
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 6: But you also have an offense that I expect to

513
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 6: be a lot more pass heavy. I think Adams has

514
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 6: the shakiest quarterback situation of these receivers that we're talking about.

515
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 6: When you consider that Aaron Rodgers is starting to decline

516
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 6: noticeably and there's a guy behind him that who knows

517
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 6: could get on the field. I doubt that he will,

518
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 6: but Jordan Love could get on the field. We don't

519
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 6: know how that's going.

520
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 3: To impact Adam.

521
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 6: So for me, it's just that, you know, Julio is

522
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 6: a much I think more efficient guy. At the end

523
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 6: of the day, when you look at Adams, He's he's

524
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 6: still going to put up like week average type of

525
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 6: yard per catch numbers. He was at twelve point oh

526
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 6: last year, twelve point one for his career. The same

527
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 6: for yard per target, He's right in at seven point

528
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 6: six to eight point two range over the last three years,

529
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 6: and the average receiver gets about eight point zero, whereas

530
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 6: Julio Jones is, you know, he's gonna get you fourteen

531
00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 6: fifteen yard to catch. He's going to average closer to

532
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 6: nine yards of target. So for me, that's just what

533
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 6: it comes down to. And then Hill, I'm with Sean.

534
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 6: I just think Hill's floor is not significantly lower than

535
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 6: these two players, and his ceiling is potentially higher just

536
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 6: because of Mahomes and because of the big play opportunity,

537
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 6: the big play possibilities, and the fact that he could

538
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 6: put up you know, forty fifty point weeks, you know,

539
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 6: four or five times this season, and maybe you'll have

540
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 6: a couple of games where he goes, you know, four

541
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 6: catches for for for forty three yards or something.

542
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: But that can happen even to these guys.

543
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 6: So the floor is not significantly lower for me to

544
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 6: take a shot on this big play guy who's you know,

545
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 6: proven he's going to get you know, at least seven

546
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 6: targets from the best quarterback.

547
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 3: In the league.

548
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 2: Raymond, Did I hear you say that DeVante Adams has

549
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 2: only one one thousand yard receiving season.

550
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 3: He has one one one thousand yard receiving season.

551
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: That's irrelevant. I'm canceling your internet. He Okay, yes, that

552
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 2: is true. He has only one one thousand yard receiving

553
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 2: season in his career. However, over the past four year

554
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 2: he has an average of over a thousand yards per year.

555
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: Add the ten touchdowns per year in there, and he

556
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 2: has two seasons of nine hundred and ninety seven yards receiving.

557
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: Like that's basically a thousand yards receiving.

558
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, but no, no, that's to my point.

559
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 6: That's exactly to my point though, it's that Devontae Adams

560
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 6: has two seasons with nine to ninety seven. Last year, Yeah,

561
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 6: he was, he missed four games, but the thing is

562
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 6: and then he had another eight hundred and eighty five

563
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 6: yard season.

564
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 3: That's my whole point. He's not a high yard per

565
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 3: reception guy.

566
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 6: So even though he's a high target guy and unquestionably

567
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 6: the target floor is right there, I think with Michael Thomas,

568
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 6: with Julio Jones, with all those guys, he needs more

569
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 6: volume than than like a guy like Tyreek Hill or

570
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 6: a guy like Julio to reach his ceiling. So that's

571
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 6: that's the reason I have him forth. That's not a

572
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 6: it's not really a disrespect to Adams, like we're nitpicking here,

573
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 6: and I think Adams I agree with Matt. I think

574
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 6: he got so much better in terms of, you know,

575
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 6: his route running and the fact that he can get

576
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 6: open when he's the only guy that defenses have to

577
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 6: worry about in Green Bay is a testament to him.

578
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 6: But at the end of the day, when you're a

579
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 6: guy that's averaging, you know, twelve twelve and a half

580
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 6: yards per catch, you know it's going to take a

581
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 6: lot of catches. And I think Michael Thomas he's that

582
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,439
Speaker 6: same kind of guy, just because Drew Brees is not

583
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 6: really going down the field, but Michael Thomas has a

584
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 6: higher or has had a higher.

585
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: Target Florence ceiling these last couple of years.

586
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 6: So and then Julio is kind of in the same neighborhood,

587
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 6: but he's averaging more yards per target. He's averaging more

588
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 6: yards per catch, and so that's why I want Julio.

589
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 6: And then Tyreek, as I mentioned, he's he's he's not

590
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 6: quite there with the targets, but his ceiling with the

591
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 6: efficiency is through your roof.

592
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: So that's that's just kind of my reasoning.

593
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 2: Matt. I want to kick it to you and get

594
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 2: your thoughts on DeAndre Hopkins. Earlier in the show, I

595
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 2: asked you who's the one wide receiver you are most

596
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,120
Speaker 2: looking to fade, And for me, I wouldn't say I'm

597
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 2: necessarily looking to fade DeAndre Hopkins, but I realize that

598
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: I've gotten zero shares of him. Some of it is,

599
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 2: you know, uncertainty with the new situation that he's going

600
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 2: into Sometimes wide receivers don't necessarily mesh well with a

601
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,160
Speaker 2: new quarterback, and he's in a new city, new coach.

602
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: But just based on my projections, even though I think

603
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 2: of myself as being relatively bullish on the Arizona Cardinals offense,

604
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 2: I'm just not getting a lot of a lot of

605
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 2: production going to DeAndre Hopkins this year. Honest, if it's

606
00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 2: a bad year by any means, but I just I

607
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 2: don't have him in my top five and most people do,

608
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 2: and so that just means I'm not getting any of him.

609
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 2: How do you think he's going to do this year

610
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: in Arizona? Yeah, I share a lot of the same

611
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: sentiments that that you do.

612
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 3: Number one.

613
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 4: Just I mean, it's always it's always fun to revisit

614
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 4: why the hell he's in Arizona to begin with, when

615
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 4: he probably Houston Texas never should have traded him to

616
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 4: begin with. He had his best season last year in

617
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 4: reception perception, you know, ninety fourth percentile in success rate

618
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 4: versus man coverage. One of the select few wide receivers

619
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,479
Speaker 4: to go quote full green, which is when they have

620
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 4: an above average score on the entire rout tree when

621
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 4: it posts the graphic on Twitter. You see that the

622
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 4: full green route tree there. So I mean he's coming

623
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 4: off an incredible season. So there's literally no knocks I

624
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 4: think to make on the player. But I think the

625
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 4: situation does come with plenty of question marks. You know,

626
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 4: you mentioned that you know it's a new quarterback, But

627
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 4: the thing that I do find most problematic is just

628
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 4: projecting volume his way because there's still a lot of

629
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 4: players that the ball needs to go to in Arizona.

630
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 4: I've been doing my projections of last week and I've

631
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 4: got him at about one hundred and forty targets, which is

632
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 4: nothing to sneeze at. It's nothing to get upset about,

633
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: but it's not It's not DeAndre Hopkins level volume that

634
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 4: we've seen in previous years. There there's definitely I think

635
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 4: there's a path to have him having a very good season,

636
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 4: but maybe not a top five fantasy season. I think Sean,

637
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: probably you mentioned earlier, you feel the same way. The

638
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 4: only thing that gives me a little bit of pause

639
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 4: when it comes to the narrative of you know, new quarterback,

640
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: new receiver. I mean not even just narrative like the

641
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 4: history of that being problematic for fantasy receivers on the move.

642
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: One thing, when I sat down with DeAndre Hopkins in January,

643
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 4: I was asking him about why, you know, pre pandemic

644
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 4: feels like a thousand years ago now, but I remember

645
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 4: sitting down with them and asking, like, you've been so

646
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: productive with so many quarterbacks throughout your career. You know

647
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 4: a bunch of I didn't say this, but you know,

648
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 4: a bunch of clowns back there behind center. What's gone

649
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: into that constant preparation. And his point was, I just

650
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 4: make that guy, you know, like my best friend. I

651
00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 4: never stopped bothering him. And because usually I don't have

652
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 4: an off season with these guys. You know, Deshaun Watson,

653
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 4: he said, is the only guy that he's had and

654
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 4: established off season with where he can find that rhythm,

655
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 4: find that groove over the months and months that usually

656
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 4: go into an NFL offseason. So if there's any wide

657
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 4: receiver I think, based on just having done this over

658
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 4: and over again in his career, that can adjust to

659
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 4: not only a new quarterback, but a new quarterback that

660
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,880
Speaker 4: he's coming to without the benefit of a normal full

661
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 4: offseason thanks to the pandemic, I think it could be Hopkins,

662
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 4: But again history would dictate that it's going to be problematic.

663
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 4: And again, there's just so many more running backs that

664
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 4: I want to pick in that range, other receivers that

665
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,239
Speaker 4: I find more appealing in that range that I'm with you.

666
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,479
Speaker 4: I have also not proactively a faded him, but not

667
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 4: found myself drafting Hopkins very often.

668
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about this tier of wide receivers

669
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: after the guys we just talked about in Matt. This

670
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: includes some of the guys you mentioned earlier in the

671
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: show that you're looking to stay away from. We have

672
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: Chris Godwin Mike Evans, you know, two obviously talented wide

673
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: receivers who just tore it up last year for Tampa Bay,

674
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 2: but there are reasons to be a little uncertain about

675
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: what they will do this year. And then they are

676
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: followed by Kenny Galladay and Amari Cooper. Matt, make the

677
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: case for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans while you're looking

678
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: to fade them. I should just say, Raymond and I

679
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: did the serious show this weekend and we had similar

680
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 2: conclusions to what you had to say earlier in staying away,

681
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 2: and part of it, you know, is maybe fewer touchdowns

682
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 2: to go around in that offense, fewer targets to go

683
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 2: around new quarterback rob Ronkowski coming in and maybe he

684
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,920
Speaker 2: steals some of the touchdowns. Where are you on these

685
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: guys and kind of pinpoint what it is that makes

686
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:28,719
Speaker 2: you a little bit pessimistic.

687
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's so many questions. I think when it comes

688
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 4: to the Bucks this year, you know, Jameis Winston, his

689
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 4: presence there just really despite the fact I don't really

690
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 4: particularly like watching Jameis Winston play quarterback, I think he

691
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,479
Speaker 4: would frustrate, you know, the hell out of me if

692
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 4: he was the quarterback of the team I was a

693
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 4: fan of. But he produces successful fantasy environments because of

694
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 4: the way he plays, because he can often throw a

695
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 4: team into a hole early and then he can throw

696
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 4: them out of it. So I think he created a

697
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: perfect situation for Evans, for Godwin last year. I think

698
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 4: I just have a lot of questions about Tom Brady

699
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,479
Speaker 4: as an individual quarterback at this point. And you know,

700
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 4: I think in a perfect scenario, forty three year old

701
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 4: Brady would you know, kind of crush it with Mike

702
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 4: Evans and Chris Godwin because Godwin is, you know, a

703
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 4: perfect fit as a player that can win at all levels,

704
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 4: but is very good on dig routes, on slant routes

705
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 4: that can get off the line of scrimmage versusress, but

706
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 4: can also be a mismatch advantage in the slot. I

707
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 4: think he would be a great fit with Brady. I

708
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 4: think even Evans, as you know, a big, contested catch

709
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 4: receiver on the outside, you think that wouldn't be a

710
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 4: fit with Brady. But at this point, Brady is his

711
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 4: accuracy is falling apart to the point that I think

712
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 4: Evans as a big target, can be kind of an

713
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 4: accuracy eraser. But the biggest question to me is just

714
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 4: can they even protect Brady because this was already a

715
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 4: problematic offensive line last year. You know, their left tackles

716
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 4: may be hinted that he might opt out this year.

717
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 4: They drafted a rookie tackle this year, but I've generally

718
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 4: thought that rookies are going to have a slow learning

719
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 4: curve anyways, So I just think this offensive environment is

720
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 4: going to look so different than what these guys succeeded

721
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 4: in last year. Great players, but just so many questions

722
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 4: on the docket here that I found myself again not

723
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 4: really drafting either one of them, even if I'm still

724
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: probably gonna rank them highly because I think they project

725
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 4: out well because there's you know, just a pretty guitarget

726
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 4: share here overall. Just haven't found myself really really drafting

727
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 4: them and just really not even considering it.

728
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: So it's interesting, Matt. For me, it's a little bit

729
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 2: of the opposite, where I'm projecting them further down, projecting

730
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: them as wide receiver twos. But I have them ranked

731
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: a little bit higher because I do think that they

732
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 2: have a pretty decently high floor. I mean, it's just

733
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 2: it is hard to know. There are so many questions. Sean.

734
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 2: You have Evans ranked number eleven, one of the two

735
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 2: players in NFL history with one thousand yards receiving in

736
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,839
Speaker 2: each of his first six seasons. The other one is

737
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 2: Randy Moss. So I look at Evans and I think

738
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 2: of a guy who, even in an inflated era of

739
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: an aerial offense, looks kind of like he's on a

740
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:54,879
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame trajectory. I mean, he has to keep

741
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: playing to get there. But I mean, you couldn't really

742
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: do much better than what he's done in his first

743
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 2: six seasons. But you have him ranked as a low

744
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 2: end wide receiver one. What do you see, Yeah, I

745
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 2: think he made some great points.

746
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 5: He's definitely, I would say, on track to be a

747
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 5: Hall of Famer. And you know, I remember at times

748
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 5: last year we were having fun like is this normal

749
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 5: to have two receivers from the same team ranked in

750
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 5: the top three, And yeah, last year I think it

751
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 5: was warranted. Matt made some great points just about you know,

752
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 5: going to this Tom Brady led offense, which I think

753
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 5: can be a little more conservative. They're going to be

754
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 5: you know, they're gonna play with the lead more. So

755
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 5: that's kind of partly why I have them a little

756
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 5: bit lower. Again, I want to emphasize that this is

757
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 5: really the beginning of a massive tier for me. I

758
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 5: mean it really goes from wide receiver six all the

759
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 5: way down to like wide receiver seventeen, where I have

760
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 5: them very close to each other, while a guy like

761
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 5: Chris Godwin, I think he's being drafted where he should go.

762
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 5: I just think you're better off kind of just waiting

763
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 5: and taking these guys that fall to you later in

764
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 5: the so I haven't been getting as much Chris Godwin

765
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 5: this year, which you know, it was a lot more

766
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 5: fun last year getting Chris Godwin as the wide receiver

767
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 5: twenty getting him to lead the league in receiving yards

768
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 5: at hundred to one. So it's just not as fun

769
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 5: when you know it's basically he's fair market price right now,

770
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 5: So I don't see much value in it. But I

771
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 5: do think he will be the guy that Brady fixates

772
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 5: on right away. I think he'll fit into the Edelman

773
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 5: role pretty much perfectly. So I have no problem with

774
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 5: people that take him in the top six. Same thing

775
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 5: with Kenny Galladay again, I mean, you were able to

776
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,399
Speaker 5: get him, I would say, right around the wide receiver two,

777
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 5: wide receiver three range last year, and now you have

778
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 5: to pay a pretty price on him around wide receiver eight.

779
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 5: And you know, it is worth pointing out he was

780
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 5: still able to put up wide receiver fifteen numbers with

781
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,400
Speaker 5: Jeff driscoll and David blow As like to call him

782
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 5: under center last year, so he's he's legit. It is

783
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 5: a bit concerning. I'm curious what Matt thinks, but you know,

784
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 5: he had the lowest yards per separation last year among

785
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 5: qualified receivers, so I don't know if that's gonna make

786
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 5: him a little bit more consistent than people realize. But

787
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 5: I'm just getting less of him because I really think that,

788
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 5: you know, targeting these guys that I think I'm massive upside,

789
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 5: like Calva Ridley, even Aj Brown in a lot of

790
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 5: drafts lately, Mark Heath Brown getting those guys later are

791
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 5: kind of the Chris Godwins and Kindergallidays that we can

792
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 5: get cheaper this year. So that's why I'm kind of

793
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 5: fading these guys just because they're the market has basically,

794
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 5: you know, priced them pretty much spot on right now.

795
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 2: Matt, what are your thoughts on Kinny Galladay back to

796
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 2: back thousand yard seasons last year led the league with

797
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 2: eleven receiving touchdowns and also thirty six deep ball targets.

798
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 2: So there are questions about whether he can continue to

799
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 2: play as efficiently as he has, but he's getting targeted

800
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 2: in the end zone and getting targeted down the field.

801
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: Those are high value targets. What are your thoughts, Yeah.

802
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:53,280
Speaker 3: A couple of points.

803
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 4: One what you just said, like where he gets targeted

804
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 4: on the field, deep down the field and in the

805
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 4: end zone in a lot of contested situation. I think

806
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:05,400
Speaker 4: that's what influences that low yards of separation per target number,

807
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 4: because that number is very dictated by where your target

808
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 4: on the field, where you line up. Galladay is a

809
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 4: true X receiver that lines up against top corners and

810
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 4: plays on the outside. He's going to have that lower

811
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 4: yards of separation number. But I think when you look

812
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 4: at him in reception perception, this is you know I

813
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 4: mentioned earlier, like guys who have a ten percent jump

814
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 4: in their success rate verse man coverage number, those are

815
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 4: usually players that are taking those big jumps year after year.

816
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 4: You know, they're not all like DeVante Adams like I

817
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 4: mentioned earlier, and Galladay is one of those guys. In

818
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 4: twenty seventeen is rookie season, he came in at sixty

819
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 4: three point two percent success rate verse man coverage. In

820
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 4: his third year seventy three point four percent. He's gotten

821
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 4: better each season. I think he is on his way

822
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,400
Speaker 4: to becoming, you know, that top level receiver.

823
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,280
Speaker 3: So I agree.

824
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,799
Speaker 4: I really like him as that guy that cannot just

825
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 4: win deep and contested situations, but has started to become

826
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 4: more of that full field player. But I'm kind of

827
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,919
Speaker 4: with Sean again when I love drafting Galladay last year

828
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 4: of drafting godwould last year, but just run down the

829
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 4: list of all of these players that can be that

830
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 4: version of the of those guys last year this year,

831
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 4: and I've not really found myself drafting Galladay very often,

832
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: even though I think he's fairly priced, he's properly ranked,

833
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 4: he has access to probably a really good ceiling. With

834
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford back this year, there's a lot to like

835
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 4: about his profile. There's just a lot of other receivers

836
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 4: to like better that are going later.

837
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 2: All right, Well, one guy who's going in the same

838
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,920
Speaker 2: range as Amari Cooper and Raymon I should say you

839
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 2: are the lowest on him in this range. You have

840
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: him ranked number twelve. The ADP that we're looking at

841
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 2: has him at number nine. But I gotta be honest,

842
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 2: and a lot of the drafts I'm in, I'm not

843
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: seeing Cooper go off the board as the number nine,

844
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 2: number ten wide receiver. I'm seeing him fall a little

845
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 2: bit down the board, which you know, kind of goes

846
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 2: along Raymond with the way you're you're viewing him a

847
00:39:52,880 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 2: thousand yards in four or five years. So that's a

848
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 2: very good mark. And in his twenty five regular season

849
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: games with the cowb as sixteen point four PPR points

850
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 2: per game, and that includes a couple of games in

851
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:08,280
Speaker 2: which he was injured. So historically Cooper isn't someone who's

852
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 2: really disappointed in the aggregate, but he's been a very

853
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: boom or bust producer, and I feel like that's maybe

854
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 2: something that has factored into why people have wanted to

855
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 2: stay away from him in their drafts. Raybond, what do

856
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,880
Speaker 2: you see when you look at a Marii Cooper.

857
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think this is a receiver who is obviously

858
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 6: highly talented. Quarterback situation is great, But I look at

859
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 6: a guy and a Mariy Cooper who on a per

860
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 6: game basis, was out targeted by Michael Gallup. Last year,

861
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 6: those two produced at the same level. Gallup actually averaged

862
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 6: more yardage than Cooper. And I know you mentioned that

863
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 6: Cooper did kind of miss some parts of games with injuries,

864
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 6: which which definitely factored in.

865
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 3: But I think the big thing for.

866
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 6: Me is it is a situation where Gallup's a little

867
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 6: closer than we might think. And you know, Cooper is

868
00:40:57,520 --> 00:41:00,040
Speaker 6: a guy who, like, let's be honest, he had a

869
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 6: really down season a couple of years ago, or at

870
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 6: least a really down half season in Oakland that was

871
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 6: almost inexplicable. He's always been a guy that struggled to

872
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,360
Speaker 6: you know, struggle in the red zone, struggled to catch touchdowns.

873
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 6: Now he did have eight last year. He made some

874
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 6: big plays and he's getting better with that in Dallas.

875
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 6: But for me, it's just a little lower on him

876
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 6: maybe than the consensus, just because of all those factors,

877
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 6: you know, Ceedee lam coming into the mix. I think

878
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 6: there's a chance that you know, just like Gallup emerged

879
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,760
Speaker 6: as as kind of Cooper's equal almost in this offense,

880
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 6: that perhaps you know, Lamb could kind of emerge as

881
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 6: you know, a little more equal to both of those guys.

882
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 6: Then we think even with the the offseason, I think

883
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,560
Speaker 6: talent's still gonna win out at the end of the day.

884
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 6: So I like Cooper. I think that he is entering

885
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 6: his prime. He's only you know, he's gonna be twenty sixth.

886
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 6: This year is gonna be his age twenty six season.

887
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 3: And we're just nitpicking, but yeah, they're just.

888
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 6: A couple of guys that that that I'd rather have

889
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 6: than him, that I think have higher target ceilings and

890
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 6: that you know, I think Cooper he tends to get

891
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 6: hurt in some way every year where it's like he's

892
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 6: playing through it, but he has this downstretch, so that

893
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 6: factors in. And then of course just the boom er

894
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 6: bust nature of his game where if you drive if

895
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,879
Speaker 6: you had him for certain weeks last year, I mean,

896
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 6: he finished as a top ten, top twelve receiver in

897
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 6: most formats. But you know, he had a game with

898
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 6: one catch for three yards. He had another game with

899
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 6: two targets and no catches. And then in the Fantasy playoffs,

900
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 6: which I know people probably remember and are pissed about.

901
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 6: You know, in Week fifteen against the Rams, two targets,

902
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 6: one catch, nineteen yards. The next week against Silly, which

903
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 6: everyone goes off against Silly. You can't not go off.

904
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 3: Against Philly if you're a receiver.

905
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 6: He had twelve targets, So you think monster game right,

906
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 6: four catches, twenty four yards. I just don't like the

907
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 6: fact that we've seen in his range of outcomes that high.

908
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 6: You know, he can get that many targets and catch

909
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 6: four balls for twenty four yards. So just a few

910
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 6: red flags for Cooper that I see, But you know,

911
00:42:56,320 --> 00:42:58,280
Speaker 6: still a top top twelve guy in my opinion.

912
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 2: Sean on the serious Raymond and I were talking about

913
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 2: Amari Cooper versus Michael Gallup, and I wanted to get

914
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 2: a sense of the odds that Cooper is outperformed in

915
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: fantasy by Gallup this year. So Sean said a line

916
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 2: for us Cooper versus Gallup most Fantasy points. And then Matt,

917
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on Sean's line in

918
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 2: which side you would bet.

919
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 5: Off the top of my head, I would set the

920
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:29,360
Speaker 5: line at Cooper minus one fifty and Michael Gallup plus

921
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 5: one fifty.

922
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 2: All right, Matt, where are you on that line?

923
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 4: I'm taking the Gallup side because like I'm over here

924
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 4: like doing the snaps for everything that Chris just said.

925
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: Because he's an inconsistent producer, but that is reflective of

926
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 4: who he is on film, who he is as a player.

927
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 4: Like it's not the situation around him. He's just always

928
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 4: been that guy, and it it like this, This shouldn't

929
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 4: annoy me, but it does annoy me because I guess

930
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 4: I care about routes too much. But like I lose

931
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 4: my mind every time somebody calls Amari Cooper one of

932
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 4: the best route runners in the NFL, because he pops

933
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 4: up when you know the checkdown account or the NFL account,

934
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 4: you know, shows like five great routes that he runs.

935
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 4: No doubt has an awesome ceiling as a route runner,

936
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 4: but it's very hit or miss in reception perception. He's

937
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 4: never scored above the seventy first percent taln success rate

938
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,200
Speaker 4: verse man coverage. That's actually gone down throughout his career.

939
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 4: He's finished below the twenty second percent talent success rate

940
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 4: versus press in two of his last three seasons. And

941
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,400
Speaker 4: you know, maybe it's injuries, maybe there's something else, but

942
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 4: I think it's just the reality of who he is.

943
00:44:28,160 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 4: He came into the league as a very polished route

944
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,840
Speaker 4: runner out of Alabama, and I don't think he's gotten

945
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 4: any better or significantly better. I think many other players

946
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 4: have passed him up as a pure route running technician,

947
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 4: and like I think the Cowboys do a great job

948
00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 4: of getting around that. You know, unlike the early Raiders

949
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 4: coaching staff that would stick him out at X receiver

950
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 4: and you know, go tell him to win against press

951
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 4: coverage and contested situations. The thing that he was never

952
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,239
Speaker 4: good at. Dallas has done a pretty good job of

953
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 4: moving him into the slot. Sometimes they use him as

954
00:44:57,760 --> 00:44:59,719
Speaker 4: the flanker and move him around at the line of

955
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 4: scrim to get them away from difficult coverage, so overall

956
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 4: they've been smart that way. But that also just brings

957
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 4: me to the point of Michael Gallup. That guy's out

958
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 4: there actually playing X receiver, you know, the number one

959
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 4: typically the number one role where he's on the line

960
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,720
Speaker 4: of scrimmage doesn't move, so he's a lot of press

961
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 4: coverage and he had a very underrated season to me

962
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 4: last year. So I think I'm really not drafting any

963
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 4: of these Cowboys guys in fantasy because I think they're

964
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 4: all probably closer than the ADP would suggest when it

965
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 4: comes to just how they could.

966
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:29,399
Speaker 3: Finish at the end of the year.

967
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 4: There's also you know, Blake Jarwin, there's Tony Pollard, There's

968
00:45:32,280 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 4: obviously they're still going to run the ball decent amount too.

969
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 4: I've just really not found myself drafting him in fantasy.

970
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 4: But I think Michael Gallup is the one who's underrated,

971
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 4: and that's why I would take that line that Shawn

972
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 4: just said, All.

973
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,239
Speaker 2: Right, Rayveon, I think that's the side of the ear

974
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 2: On as well.

975
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:45,840
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, definitely.

976
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 6: I mean listen per game yardage especially is you know,

977
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 6: if you're looking among per game statistics for receivers and granted,

978
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 6: you know, I'm using it, and I'm sure we're all

979
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 6: using you know, routes and all these things that go.

980
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 3: Into the models a lot more.

981
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 6: But just on a straight up predictive basis, per game

982
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 6: yardage is pretty predictive, and Michael Gallup averaged more yards

983
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 6: than Cooper, So you know, right there, that's telling you

984
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 6: that there's a very real chance that Gallup could outscore him.

985
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 6: Maybe he doesn't catch quite as many passes. His catch

986
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 6: rate is generally in the high fifties and and Cooper's

987
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 6: is in the mid sixties. But that's also because, as

988
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 6: Mad alluded to, Gallup is, you know, playing these I

989
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:24,439
Speaker 6: think the harder spot to play.

990
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,240
Speaker 3: He's getting more press coverage.

991
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 6: So with more growth from Dak, with another year in that,

992
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 6: you know, another year in that system, and with perhaps

993
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 6: even a more explosive number three receiver than than last

994
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 6: year with Randall Cobb, you know, there's you know, Gallup.

995
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 6: It's possible that Gallup is the guy that continues to

996
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 6: take steps forward, whereas I think Cooper is kind of

997
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 6: plateaued as a very good NFL receiver, but I don't

998
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 6: know if I call him a great one, and Gallup

999
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:54,439
Speaker 6: is very is becoming very good. So I just think, yeah,

1000
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 6: I think it's a lot more even than people may think.

1001
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 3: And then the big thing is just it's fantasy. We're

1002
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 3: just looking for that, right.

1003
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 6: Cooper's going off the board as a top ten, top

1004
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 6: twelve guy and make a Gallup is not He's usually

1005
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 6: going outside the top twenty.

1006
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: So get me out, Sean. I think it's a pretty

1007
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 2: good line, so I would stay away from it. If

1008
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 2: I had to take a side, I would probably lean

1009
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,759
Speaker 2: a little bit more towards Cooper. I think he's gonna

1010
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 2: have a pretty big season. I think that offense in

1011
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:22,320
Speaker 2: general is going to be pretty special. And to Matt's point,

1012
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: with Cooper moving all across the field, I think he's

1013
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 2: actually going to play quite a bit in the slot

1014
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 2: this year, just you know, based on Gallop being a

1015
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 2: perimeter only receiver. Ceedee Lamb has done well in the slot,

1016
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 2: but that's not really his primary position either. Cooper is

1017
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 2: a little bit more malleable in the way that he

1018
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 2: can be used, and so I could see him actually

1019
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 2: getting quite a bit of advantageous matchups in the slot

1020
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: and being used that way. So I'm going to lean

1021
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 2: towards Cooper on that, but I think it's a pretty

1022
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 2: good line. Let's get to the final three guys in

1023
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 2: the top twelve, and I'm kind of dubbing this the

1024
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 2: question mark because we have Adam Feelen at number ten,

1025
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,959
Speaker 2: DJ Moore at number eleven, and Alan Robinson at number

1026
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 2: twelve and Matt Out of these guys, i'd like to

1027
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 2: get your thoughts on the one you like the most

1028
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 2: in the one that you like the least.

1029
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 4: I actually really like all of these guys, and I

1030
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 4: hate to see the ranks for the other two. Here

1031
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:20,439
Speaker 4: for Alan Robinson because he's my favorite of this tier.

1032
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 4: You know, longtime Alan Robinson guy.

1033
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 3: Reception.

1034
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: Perception has always been a big fan of Robinson. Last year,

1035
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 4: he finished with the first the number one spot in

1036
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 4: terms of success freight, first man coverage. I think he

1037
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 4: had a truly elite number one receiver season last year

1038
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 4: while playing with Trabisky and everything else that was going

1039
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 4: on there. So I think there's really no questions about

1040
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 4: who he is as a player, despite the fact he's

1041
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 4: had a little bit of hiccups here and there in

1042
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,279
Speaker 4: his career that I think were brought on by bad

1043
00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 4: quarterback play and obviously injury. Overall, I think he has

1044
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 4: a seiling. I think he has a great ceiling this

1045
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 4: year if it's It's tough though, to count on Nick Foles, right,

1046
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 4: because like, Nick Foles might be the best quarterback in

1047
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 4: Alan Robinson's career. But I don't know, I think that

1048
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 4: much of Nick Foles, to tell you the truth, especially

1049
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 4: outside of good ecosystems. We've seen you know, Nick Foles

1050
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 4: in Philly during the Chip Kelly run early there and

1051
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 4: then obviously during the.

1052
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 3: Super Bowl run.

1053
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 4: Good ecosystems, very good Nick Foles. Then we've seen him

1054
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 4: in Jacksonville. We've seen him with the Saint Louis Rams

1055
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 4: bad ecosystem, really bad Nick Foles. I think the Bears

1056
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:24,440
Speaker 4: are probably somewhere in the middle because I'm high on Robinson,

1057
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 4: I'm high on Anthony Miller. I still think Matt Naggie's

1058
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 4: a decent play caller. I think they could be a

1059
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 4: solid ecosystem, but not to either one of the extremes.

1060
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:35,720
Speaker 4: So and this is all counting on you know, Foles

1061
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 4: potentially beating out Trabisky, which I don't think is a guarantee.

1062
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 4: So I think Robinson certainly has some degree of volatility

1063
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 4: in his draft profile, in his Fantasy out look this year.

1064
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 4: But I do find myself enthralled enough by the ceiling

1065
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,799
Speaker 4: to really take him. And like I said, I'm in

1066
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:54,879
Speaker 4: on all of these guys, the guy I would say

1067
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 4: at this at this price that I'm the least in

1068
00:49:57,080 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 4: on is probably Dj Moore, just because I I think

1069
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 4: there's a lot to like about that Carolina Panthers offense.

1070
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 4: I actually think that he's in a great spot to produce.

1071
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 4: But I like Adam Feelin just a touch more from

1072
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 4: a target volume perspective. So don't like any of these guys,

1073
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,160
Speaker 4: but I think, if I was to say, the one

1074
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 4: that I like.

1075
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 3: The least is probably Dj Moore.

1076
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:20,480
Speaker 2: Sean, I want your thoughts on Alan Robinson here. You know,

1077
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: the pro side of this is obviously he was number

1078
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,080
Speaker 2: three in the NFL last year with one hundred and

1079
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 2: fifty four targets, had a career high end receptions, another

1080
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 2: year removed from the ACL injury, and you have to

1081
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 2: think that Foles is probably an upgrade on Mitchell Trubisky.

1082
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 2: But obviously the con is that you think we're going

1083
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:40,640
Speaker 2: to see, we have to see a regression in target volume.

1084
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: He might not click with Nick Foles and the offense

1085
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 2: might be really bad. Right, Yeah, I.

1086
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:50,760
Speaker 5: Would agree with your assessment that Foles is probably an upgrade.

1087
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,399
Speaker 5: Like that's the perfect way to put it, because who knows, right,

1088
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 5: But I think Matt made this point earlier that you know,

1089
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 5: the Bears wide receiver depth chart was def's made last year.

1090
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 5: Anthony Miller, who I do love getting in the later rounds,

1091
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,760
Speaker 5: was in out of the lineup. He began the season

1092
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 5: with an ankle injury that didn't appear to really go

1093
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 5: away until after their bye week. I think it was

1094
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 5: week ten, So you know, Alan Robinson was mostly competing

1095
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 5: with Javon Whims, JP Holts and Jasper Horsted for targets

1096
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,359
Speaker 5: because both tight ends went down after week eight, so

1097
00:51:21,520 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 5: you know, of course he was seeing massive target shares.

1098
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 5: So while we make fun of Jimmy Graham and you

1099
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:29,839
Speaker 5: know Ted Gans hardly an elite receiver, I think they

1100
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:31,840
Speaker 5: are going to be an upgrade in terms of just

1101
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:34,359
Speaker 5: you know, being able to steal a few targets from

1102
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:37,400
Speaker 5: Alan Robinson every week and again, Anthony Miller should be

1103
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 5: one hundred percent going in the year. I love his upside,

1104
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 5: So that's kind of why I'm just a little bit

1105
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 5: down on Alan Robinson. Again, this is part of a

1106
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 5: massive tier where just the slightest change in a projection

1107
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:50,439
Speaker 5: can move guys up or down five slots. So I'm

1108
00:51:50,480 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 5: just not getting him at his current ADP of twelve,

1109
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 5: And in fact, most drafts I'm in, there's always somebody,

1110
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 5: especially in expert leagues, that consider him, you know, a

1111
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 5: mid range wide receiver on or low end wide receiver win.

1112
00:52:01,760 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 5: So just he doesn't really fit into.

1113
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 4: The usually me yeah, exactly.

1114
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:10,879
Speaker 5: So he doesn't fit into my draft process of you know,

1115
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 5: I want to get one of these the last of

1116
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 5: the running backs I really want, like Aaron Jones, Kenyan

1117
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 5: Drink or even Clyde Edwards Lair, which probably can't happen

1118
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 5: anymore at that point in the draft, where you know,

1119
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 5: I want to get those guys and not have to

1120
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 5: rely on taking David Johnson or David Montgomery in the

1121
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 5: next round or two and just focus on getting these

1122
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 5: wide receiver twos I love, like Calverndley AJ Brown types.

1123
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 5: So that's kind of he doesn't fit in my draft

1124
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 5: client because I don't really think he has the upside

1125
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 5: that some people do, just because I think there is

1126
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 5: gonna be a little bit more competition for targets, and

1127
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 5: that that's kind of thing is value a little bit ramon.

1128
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:47,840
Speaker 2: The guy in this tier that you are the lowest

1129
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: on is Adam Feeland. You have him at number eighteen.

1130
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 2: Obviously the pro side of this, he's had over twelve

1131
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 2: hundred yards an average of over twelve hundred yards in

1132
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:02,759
Speaker 2: three seasons from twenty sixteen twenty eighteen. Was injured last year,

1133
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 2: but you know, when he was healthy out there on

1134
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 2: the field, he was producing. And now he's no longer

1135
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 2: competing for targets with Stefan Diggs. The con is that

1136
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 2: he's turning thirty and he's still stuck in a slow

1137
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 2: run first offense. So even though he should be getting

1138
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: the majority of the targets, or not the majority, but

1139
00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 2: even though he should be getting a lot of targets,

1140
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 2: in terms of market chare, the overall market still might

1141
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: be relatively depressed. Can you talk a little bit about Thalen?

1142
00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's interesting because I like Theland.

1143
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 6: I was drafting a lot of him and then his

1144
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 6: ADP started to shoot up to where he was going,

1145
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,439
Speaker 6: you know, fourteen, fifteen, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen instead of where

1146
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 6: I was drafting him, which was, you know, around twentieth

1147
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 6: or so.

1148
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 3: I have him eighteenth.

1149
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 6: And he's just more so at the end of the

1150
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:50,799
Speaker 6: tear because I have some guys that we didn't even

1151
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 6: talk about, you know, ranked higher that you know, we'll

1152
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 6: get to the next episode. But Odell Beckham, Tyro Lockett,

1153
00:53:57,719 --> 00:54:00,719
Speaker 6: Cooper Cup, Calvin Ridley, Juju Smith, Schuston, these are all

1154
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 6: guys that.

1155
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 3: I have in my top fifteen. A. J. Brown I

1156
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 3: have sixty.

1157
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,879
Speaker 6: So it's like, am I really more excited to draft

1158
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 6: Adam Thiven in a low volume offense going on thirty

1159
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 6: than any of those guys I just mentioned?

1160
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 3: No, you know, am I do? I think Adam Thewen

1161
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 3: has a lot of upside.

1162
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean he started twenty eighteen even in a

1163
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 6: you know, somewhat low volume Viking offense. They always have

1164
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 6: a good defense so they're never just thrown it around

1165
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 6: the yard. But you know, he started a year with

1166
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 6: eight straight one hundred yard games, so he has a

1167
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 6: lot of upside. But compared to those other receivers who

1168
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 6: are just younger, uh, and I think have higher, you know,

1169
00:54:38,880 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 6: better offenses and just kind of higher overall, ceilings are

1170
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 6: just a little more to get excited about, and you know,

1171
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 6: I just think that's why I have steel in eighteens.

1172
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 3: It's not really I'm not upset to get.

1173
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:53,400
Speaker 6: Him, but he's just more so at the end of

1174
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 6: this kind of robust wide receiver one slash two tier

1175
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:01,279
Speaker 6: where you could kind of jumbles them around. And I

1176
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 6: don't think anyone would really argue with you about, you know,

1177
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,520
Speaker 6: the order of these guys. He's just kind of on

1178
00:55:06,560 --> 00:55:08,480
Speaker 6: the lower end of guys I'm excited about, right in

1179
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:10,359
Speaker 6: front of Robert Woods, another guy that I think Matt

1180
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:12,799
Speaker 6: pointed out, like when you project them out and he's

1181
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 6: up there, it's just not quite as exciting. So that's

1182
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,160
Speaker 6: kind of where I am with you. And I think

1183
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:22,840
Speaker 6: the offense and the target volume it's just combined with

1184
00:55:22,880 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 6: the age, just creates a little bit more of a

1185
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:26,479
Speaker 6: downside risk.

1186
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,480
Speaker 2: Man. I want to get your final thoughts on DJ Moore,

1187
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 2: who I think is going roughly around where he should be. Obviously,

1188
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 2: the pro side of this is he was fantastically productive

1189
00:55:37,239 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 2: last year, very explosive. I think he's fairly well rounded,

1190
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 2: and there could be some enthusiasm about now he has

1191
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater instead of the backup quarterbacks he played with

1192
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 2: last year. He has offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and he

1193
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 2: has head coach Matt Ruhle. In theory, all that is

1194
00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:57,200
Speaker 2: a good thing. On the other side, he has a

1195
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 2: new offense, a new quarterback, a new play caller, and

1196
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:02,480
Speaker 2: new coach. So the things that could be good for

1197
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,400
Speaker 2: him could also be very bad for him, especially in

1198
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 2: a weird offseason where he doesn't have as much opportunity

1199
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 2: to practice. And you add in Robbie Anderson, who I

1200
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 2: don't think is a major threat, but is someone who

1201
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:18,359
Speaker 2: at least could offer some competition for targets there. Where

1202
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 2: are you with Dj Moore? How do you see him

1203
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: fitting into this new offense?

1204
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:25,920
Speaker 4: As Chris was talking, I started to kind of rethink,

1205
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:28,320
Speaker 4: you know, had having Adam deal and slightly ahead of

1206
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 4: Dj Moore just for a lot of the reasons that

1207
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 4: you mentioned. But I also like I expect Carolina to

1208
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:34,839
Speaker 4: throw the ball a lot this year. Whether they want

1209
00:56:34,880 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 4: to or not, They're going to have such a train

1210
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 4: wreck of a defense. Their personnel is just is terrible

1211
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:42,759
Speaker 4: on defense. I think whether they want to or not,

1212
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 4: there's gonna be a lot of volume in that offense.

1213
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 4: So these guys are both you know, number one receivers

1214
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 4: that I probably I don't think are you know, up

1215
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 4: there with like the Alan Robinson's or the DeAndre Hopkins

1216
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 4: of the world, like the true number one coverage dictating receivers.

1217
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 4: But they're the number ones on their own team. And

1218
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 4: then More is definitely in a more fantasy friendly environment

1219
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:03,759
Speaker 4: from a pure production standpoint, And when it comes to

1220
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:06,799
Speaker 4: the player, DJ Moore was able to produce last year

1221
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:10,479
Speaker 4: because forty eight point one percent of his charted routes

1222
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 4: and reception perception were either a slant, a dig or

1223
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 4: a screen. You know, those are layup routes, bad for

1224
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 4: a bad quarterback like Kyle Allen. And I also think

1225
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 4: they're gonna be great routes for Teddy Bridgewater another anticipatory

1226
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:25,960
Speaker 4: short to intermediate pass or I think he's gonna the

1227
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 4: fit there is perfect and more is not. Like I said,

1228
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 4: I don't think he's one of the best. He's really

1229
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 4: not a very good separator across the route tree or

1230
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:37,520
Speaker 4: getting off press coverage, but he got a lot better

1231
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 4: from year one to year two. And I also think,

1232
00:57:39,920 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 4: you know, throw that aside for a minute, he might

1233
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 4: already be one of the best, if not the best,

1234
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 4: after catch and contested catch receivers in the league. So

1235
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 4: there's so much really to like from Dj Moore from

1236
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 4: a fantasy perspective. From a real life perspective, the strides

1237
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 4: he's made from year one to year two, he could

1238
00:57:56,040 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 4: make another jump in year three. And like I said,

1239
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:01,800
Speaker 4: I think the supporting casting caroline is underrated. I'm still

1240
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 4: full on Curtis Samuel guy, and I think Robbie Anderson

1241
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 4: actually allows Curtis Samuel to do a lot less from

1242
00:58:09,080 --> 00:58:10,920
Speaker 4: a deep route perspective than he did last year. In

1243
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 4: reception perception, the only guy who ran more nine routes

1244
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 4: than Curtis Samuel last year among sampled players was DK Metcalf,

1245
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 4: So I think Samuel's going to be used a lot

1246
00:58:19,720 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 4: more constructively this year than he was last year. And

1247
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 4: Anderson does just make the offense that much more dangerous

1248
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 4: and efficient from a deep ball perspective. From a clearout perspective.

1249
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 4: The more I'm talking about it, the more I'm hearing

1250
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 4: what Chris has to say. I think I probably need

1251
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 4: to be bumping Dj at more up a little bit, all.

1252
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 2: Right, Matt great stuff there. What do you have going

1253
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 2: on at Yahoo?

1254
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 4: Obviously, we're still doing the Yahoo Fantasy Football Podcast. We

1255
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 4: just announced that we're going to be five days a

1256
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 4: week in the month of August and then into the

1257
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:48,960
Speaker 4: regular season. Plenty of time for podcasting while we're all

1258
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 4: stuck at home. I'm also writing a series about the

1259
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 4: players and coaches who are going to tell the story

1260
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 4: of the twenty twenty season. Just put out one on

1261
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 4: Kevin Stefanski how he's going to potentially help Bake or

1262
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 4: Mayfield get fixed. And of course in the meantime, just

1263
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 4: you know, throwing out a lot of stuff with reception

1264
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 4: perception on Twitter. Use the hashtag reception perception and you'll

1265
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 4: be able to find all the stuff there and where

1266
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 4: you can purchase access to the data.

1267
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 2: Matt, it was fantastic having you on the show. Everyone

1268
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 2: be sure to follow that on Twitter at Matt Harmon

1269
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 2: Underscore b YB. On our next NFL episode, we'll be

1270
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 2: breaking down the rest of the Fantasy wide receivers. You

1271
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 2: can follow Sean, Chris and Me in the Action Network

1272
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 2: app at the Underscore Oddsmaker, Chris, Raybond and Matt at

1273
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 2: the Oracle. Please subscribe to and rate and review the show,

1274
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:49,320
Speaker 2: and listen and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1275
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 2: We're finished talking