WEBVTT - Flynn Not First Time U.S. Had Secret KGB Contact, Cohen Says

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<v Speaker 1>order your first custom shirt today. Welcome to the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. Along with my

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<v Speaker 1>co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we bring you the

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<v Speaker 1>most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for you and your money,

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<v Speaker 1>whether at the grocery store or the trading floor. Find

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg P and L Podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. The White House Press Secretary Sewan

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<v Speaker 1>Spicer saying the President had been concerned for a few

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<v Speaker 1>weeks that General Michael Flynn had misled Vice President, hence

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<v Speaker 1>here to tell us more. Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at

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<v Speaker 1>the Atlantic Council and also director of the Center for Energy,

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<v Speaker 1>Natural Resources and Geo Politics. Uh DR Cohen, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>very much for being with us and the Institute for

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<v Speaker 1>Analysis of Global Security, also based in Washington, d C.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe you could just give us your reaction to the

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<v Speaker 1>ongoing and I guess investigation into the former head of

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<v Speaker 1>the National Security Council. Well, unfortunately, this is an unprecedented

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<v Speaker 1>situation where from the get go, from the beginning, the

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<v Speaker 1>National Security Advisor is investigated by the FBI counter intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>their allegations flying. You remember General Flynn appeared at the

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<v Speaker 1>unfortunate dinner with Mr Putin and also Jill Stein from

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<v Speaker 1>the Green Party was sitting at their table. Uh. This

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<v Speaker 1>was for the Russian UM fake news channel Russia Today

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<v Speaker 1>in UM. And then the question is what does it involve.

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<v Speaker 1>Is it just a bad judgment or something more significant?

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<v Speaker 1>And of course I'm not private to any information beyond

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<v Speaker 1>what we have in open sources. But at the same

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<v Speaker 1>time I must say, UM, there were clandestine, uh hush

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<v Speaker 1>hush contacts between electoral campaigns and foreign powers, including identified

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<v Speaker 1>KGB agents. For example, Henry Kissinger was negotiating or at

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<v Speaker 1>least in contact with UM the Soviet representative who was

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<v Speaker 1>identified KGB before Richard Nixon took power in But Kissinger

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<v Speaker 1>and ultimate pro was very careful to advise his boss,

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<v Speaker 1>President Nixon, to keep meticulous notes and to advise other

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<v Speaker 1>people about his contact. So he did it with the

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<v Speaker 1>blessing of the principle UM. Kissinger also had a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of behind closed doors and under the table contacts with

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese UH, and for that during the Cuban missile crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>Bobby Kennedy, President's brother, an attorney general, was in contact

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<v Speaker 1>with the Russian ambassador um anatoly Rin to try to

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<v Speaker 1>evade the nuclear holocaust UH caused by the Soviet placing

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons in Cuba. So there were precedents, and we

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<v Speaker 1>will see in the next weeks how General Flynn extracts

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<v Speaker 1>himself out of this. Uh. Well, the bigger issue here

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<v Speaker 1>there there are a couple of bigger issues. First of all, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's an issue of security. And if indeed, uh, Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Flynn wied to Vice President Pence, that's part of the issue. No,

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<v Speaker 1>and not only that, but then, but the idea that

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<v Speaker 1>there is some kind of security breach that not all

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<v Speaker 1>members of the core group in President Trump's administration are

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<v Speaker 1>on the same page about this is a problem. No,

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<v Speaker 1>up aolutely. Uh. First of all, Um, misleading or or

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<v Speaker 1>misinforming Vice President Pence was probably a very bad idea.

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<v Speaker 1>And as always in Washington, it's not the transgression that

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<v Speaker 1>gets you, it's lying a bit about the transgression. So

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<v Speaker 1>that's a known thing for an ultimate insider, as Mike Flynn,

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<v Speaker 1>this was to me a surprise. UH. Secondly, now you

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<v Speaker 1>are having Congress the Senate eager to investigate a broader

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<v Speaker 1>range of issues in terms of connections to Russia, and

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<v Speaker 1>we will see how that will go. So from the beginning,

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<v Speaker 1>instead of focusing on massive challenges I've just written today about, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the North Korean and Iranian nuclear I'm sorry, ballistic missile

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<v Speaker 1>tests that probably were timed to derail the Japanese Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Minister's visit to lag almar and UH to test the

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<v Speaker 1>administration instead of focusing on that and Mr Natanio coming

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<v Speaker 1>to town tomorrow. UH, the President and the Vice President

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<v Speaker 1>and the White House have to deal with investigations and

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<v Speaker 1>allegations and everything else that distracts them from the business

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<v Speaker 1>of running the country and running the free world. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr con What if you could just step back a second.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to ask you about Russia because I've been

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the performance of the Russian rouble and it

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<v Speaker 1>has continued to gain strength against the US dollar. UH,

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<v Speaker 1>increase in any oil revenue because of cutbacks and OPEC

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<v Speaker 1>production and so on. What if you could just give

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<v Speaker 1>us a perspective of what kind of situation does Vladimir

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<v Speaker 1>Putin face as president, Because you know, many times you

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<v Speaker 1>always think the opposition or the person you don't know

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<v Speaker 1>has everything together and is quite organized. Sometimes everyone's, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in the same boat, they just don't know it. The

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<v Speaker 1>Russians are in the same boat with the Iranians and

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<v Speaker 1>the Saudis, that's for sure. That's why they're pushing so

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<v Speaker 1>hard to cut production. This is the first time we

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<v Speaker 1>see Russia cutting significantly uh it's output. But the main

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<v Speaker 1>burden is of course on the market maker of the Saudias,

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<v Speaker 1>and also Iran is not increasing its production as fast

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<v Speaker 1>as they want. But this is a challenge for the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump administration. If we really want to uh force Iran

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<v Speaker 1>to comply with the Obama era nuclear agreement, we may

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<v Speaker 1>want to keep the oil prices down. We may want

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<v Speaker 1>to increase domestic production, including shale, and also to allow

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<v Speaker 1>the United States to produce more by opening UM the

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<v Speaker 1>offshore acreage for exploration and exploitation of oil and gas

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<v Speaker 1>UM in the Pacific Shelf, Atlantic shell Off and the

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<v Speaker 1>Gulf of Mexico. President Obama, just before he finished his term,

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<v Speaker 1>closed back a lot of acreage that was opened before,

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<v Speaker 1>and also on land. We want to increase UM opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>for e NP, for exploration and production. As far as

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<v Speaker 1>Russia is concerned, of course, Uh, Putin is playing his

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<v Speaker 1>cards quite well, and his cards are bad. The economy.

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<v Speaker 1>I just came back two weeks ago from Russia. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I was there before in December. The economy

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<v Speaker 1>is not doing great. They ran out of growth, so

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<v Speaker 1>their only hope is oil gas, uh, some other raw materials.

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<v Speaker 1>And then nuclear reactors and space launchers and the space

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<v Speaker 1>launch industry just collapse. It was an incredible thing to

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<v Speaker 1>watch when I was there, the investigations by the secret

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<v Speaker 1>police of their space sector that just people because of

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<v Speaker 1>corruption because uh they were stealing precious metal. Um, they

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<v Speaker 1>just destroyed a whole industry. Right, Thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Aril Cohen, Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, breaking down

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<v Speaker 1>what the potential implications are for the regarding the resignation

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<v Speaker 1>of Michael Flynn. I'm Lisa Bramoy. It's here with pim Fox.

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<v Speaker 1>com Custom shirts made Smarter. After high drama at the

0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:17.000
<v Speaker 1>High Court in the United States, we're taking We've been

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<v Speaker 1>taking a little bit of a breather from the immigration

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<v Speaker 1>executive Order that President Trump signed, but it has not

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<v Speaker 1>gone away, and we want to get a sense of

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<v Speaker 1>what the next steps are for this presidential administration. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to bring Alex Narrasta, immigration policy analyst at the

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<v Speaker 1>Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington, d C. Alex, I'm so glad that you

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<v Speaker 1>could join us. I just want to start first with

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<v Speaker 1>what is the next step for President Trump. Do we

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<v Speaker 1>have a sense of that yet? Well, the next step

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<v Speaker 1>that everyone's talking about is that he's just going to

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<v Speaker 1>put out a newer draft of the executive order that

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<v Speaker 1>removes all of a lot of the thorny issues that

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<v Speaker 1>the Court has raised, as well as all the draft

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<v Speaker 1>are and oversights that were in there in the first issue. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>Reissue that order, um, and then it will be much

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<v Speaker 1>more legally defensible and wipe out a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>courts disagreements. So we've heard a lot of talk about

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<v Speaker 1>what harm could come from either the passage or the

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<v Speaker 1>acceptance of this executive order or or not or the

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<v Speaker 1>rejection of it. Where do you in in this well

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<v Speaker 1>the band um? I'm much more uh sort of interested

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<v Speaker 1>in what the supposed benefits are. I mean, we can

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<v Speaker 1>talk about the cost of the band as well. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's supposed to try to decrease or eliminate foreign born

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<v Speaker 1>terrorism on US soil. But the seven countries that are

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<v Speaker 1>part of this band that will put it on this

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<v Speaker 1>temporary band, um, there have been zero Americans killed in

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<v Speaker 1>terrorist atacks committed by folks from these seven countries on

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<v Speaker 1>US soil and none uh, no convictions or arrest at

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<v Speaker 1>all of Libyans or Syrians for planning attacks on you

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<v Speaker 1>as well. So in order to understand like what downsides

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<v Speaker 1>could happen from this um, we need to realize that

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<v Speaker 1>the upsides are very small that I existent at all. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>on the downside, you have about fifty thousand Green cards

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<v Speaker 1>a year going to folks from these countries. That's about

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<v Speaker 1>five percent or so of the total each year, and

0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:19.840
<v Speaker 1>a few hundred thousands visitors, not very many. So the

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<v Speaker 1>economic impact of this right off the bat won't be

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<v Speaker 1>that great for Americans. But because there's really no upside

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of how it could decrease terrorism, uh, it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's still a net cost. Before we uh so leave

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<v Speaker 1>the immigration topic, I want to get your thoughts about immigration,

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<v Speaker 1>but legal immigration as well as the illegal immigration from

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<v Speaker 1>Mexico obviously not part of this specific travel band, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering if I could get your deeper view as

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<v Speaker 1>to the forward looking to the direction of immigration policy. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're immigration policy should be heading is toward

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<v Speaker 1>a liberalization i than a restriction. So the reason why

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<v Speaker 1>people come illegally to the United States is that there

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<v Speaker 1>is no legal pathway from them to come legally in

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<v Speaker 1>the first place. So if you take a look at

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<v Speaker 1>green cards in the US, which is the way that

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<v Speaker 1>you get lawful permanent residency and can eventually apply for citizenship.

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<v Speaker 1>There is no category in there for a low skilled

0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 1>worker unless they're closely related to an American UM. So

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<v Speaker 1>just to say that again, because most people don't realize

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<v Speaker 1>that there is no green card category for a low

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<v Speaker 1>skilled worker UM. And that is the main reason why

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<v Speaker 1>these low skilled workers from Mexico, Central America and some

0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:39.080
<v Speaker 1>other countries are able to come come here illegally, is

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<v Speaker 1>that there is no way from the come legally, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that we should allow them to come legally

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<v Speaker 1>and work here. Now, the other areas of immigration, like

0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:50.439
<v Speaker 1>high skilled workers entrepreneurs, those also need to be expanded

0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.160
<v Speaker 1>so that we can allow more people to come here

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.840
<v Speaker 1>and grow our economy and start new businesses. UM. But

0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 1>on the low end side, the reason why we have

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<v Speaker 1>illegalization is that just can't come legally. Alex what do

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<v Speaker 1>you say to people who say that these immigrants are

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<v Speaker 1>taking us jobs? Well, there's really no evidence of that.

0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 1>We don't live in a fixed pie economy. There's not

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:14.880
<v Speaker 1>a fixed number of jobs, which means that if there

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 1>are more people in this country who are spending money,

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.079
<v Speaker 1>who are starting businesses, who are working, that actually increases

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:23.920
<v Speaker 1>the number of jobs that are available. Meanwhile, if the

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 1>number of people in this country were to decrease, it

0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:30.439
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't free up jobs for Americans, for unemployed people. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>Most of those people they disappeared, they would take their

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 1>jobs with them. UM. And that's because more people are

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>a benefit to the economy, more people as workers, as consumers,

0:13:39.880 --> 0:13:43.400
<v Speaker 1>as entrepreneurs, as investors, as people who make their lives

0:13:43.400 --> 0:13:46.319
<v Speaker 1>and their homes here. It stimulates a lot more economic

0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 1>activity uh than the jobs that they merely take themselves.

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 1>So that when you look across American states, you see

0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 1>the states that are doing the worst are the places

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.679
<v Speaker 1>where there are the fewest demogrants and nobody wants to

0:13:57.720 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 1>move to a lot of the places that have a

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.959
<v Speaker 1>lot of job opportunities for natives and for immigrants are

0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.920
<v Speaker 1>the ones where everybody's moving to. Thank you very much

0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:10.600
<v Speaker 1>for joining us, Alexa nor Rasta. He is immigration policy

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.000
<v Speaker 1>analysts Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato

0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 1>Institute in Washington, d C. It seems we cannot go

0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.400
<v Speaker 1>a day without u S docks hitting a new high,

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>and our next guest thinks that they will keep rising.

0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.600
<v Speaker 1>I want to bring in Phil Orlando, Chief Equity strategist

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:44.640
<v Speaker 1>for Federated Global Invested Investment Management and Phil I want

0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:47.400
<v Speaker 1>to start with inflation. We got a very good reading

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 1>today with wholesale prices coming in. They rose at the

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:56.120
<v Speaker 1>fastest pace since two thousand twelve. I believe when is

0:14:56.160 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 1>inflation going to become a problem for U S stock valuations? Well,

0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 1>that's an interesting question because the metric you just referenced

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:06.040
<v Speaker 1>was nominal inflation. What we like to look at is

0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.440
<v Speaker 1>core year of a year inflation, which strips out the

0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:12.920
<v Speaker 1>volatility of food, energy, and and more recently with the

0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:16.320
<v Speaker 1>pp I trade services, that number was actually a poor number.

0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 1>It was up one point six percent year of a year.

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>It was down to tick from December. You look at

0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 1>the most recent wage data we got when the January

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>Labor report came out, year of a year wage growth,

0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 1>which had been two point nine December is now down

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.600
<v Speaker 1>to two point five percent. Basically, you're saying that inflation

0:15:36.640 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem to be getting ahead of itself at this point.

0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 1>It seems to be in a sort of sweet spot

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:43.560
<v Speaker 1>for stocks. Well, yeah, inflation. You know, there are folks

0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 1>that are thinking, you know, inflation is going to go

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>vertical eventually and it might, but it's not right now.

0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>And and if the FED is truly data dependent, as

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.000
<v Speaker 1>they've been telling us for the last you know, so

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:56.840
<v Speaker 1>many years, uh, it's not in the numbers. Inflation is

0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 1>not a concern right now. Now. You raised another interesting point,

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.760
<v Speaker 1>which is that with inflation ticking up, bond yield should

0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 1>be ticking up, and and and stock multiples should be

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.720
<v Speaker 1>going the other way, you know, based upon the mathematics

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:10.840
<v Speaker 1>of the FED model, and and and I agree with

0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>that conceptually, but if you go back and look at

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:19.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, the last twenty cycles were bond yields sort

0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:24.360
<v Speaker 1>of moved up gradually, you can coexist with expanding multiples.

0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:29.240
<v Speaker 1>The reality is that that price earnings ratios continue to

0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 1>expand as treasury yields get to five It's not until

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.440
<v Speaker 1>treasury yields surpass five percent that we start to see

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.200
<v Speaker 1>that contraction. So we're still okay. Just to sort of

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:41.640
<v Speaker 1>what we were talking about offline, is that ten year

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:46.280
<v Speaker 1>treasury yields are now near the lowest since two ten

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 1>relative to the earnings yield on the smp FRED. So

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:51.600
<v Speaker 1>it raises the question of at what point where people

0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.440
<v Speaker 1>cycle back into bonds seeing that there is an alternative

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:58.240
<v Speaker 1>two stocks and holding stocks just by virtue of their

0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.720
<v Speaker 1>dividend payments. Well, I don't know if I can connect

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.040
<v Speaker 1>those thoughts, but I just want to give you some stats. Right,

0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:06.080
<v Speaker 1>take a look at the SMP five hundred is up

0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.400
<v Speaker 1>more than four and a quarter percent so far this year.

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.280
<v Speaker 1>All right, Um, you've got a big fund to move,

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 1>I know, the Federated Global Allocation Fund, Right, that's like

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.000
<v Speaker 1>almost a half a have a trillion No, no, no no,

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:22.240
<v Speaker 1>a million billion. I beg your pardon. So we're about

0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:29.560
<v Speaker 1>four okay, not from your lips to god. Yeah, And

0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.160
<v Speaker 1>and you know it's it's one of these global asset

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.320
<v Speaker 1>allocation You've got everything from nest lee to bonds to okay,

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:39.800
<v Speaker 1>So why is it that on the one hand, you

0:17:40.200 --> 0:17:42.960
<v Speaker 1>could have a Greek course that tells us that we're

0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:46.400
<v Speaker 1>all going, you know, in a handbasket. On the other hand,

0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.960
<v Speaker 1>as Lisa just started off the segment, we're hit new

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:54.040
<v Speaker 1>highs uh with stocks. So how do you reconcile all

0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 1>this handwringing and um, the world is ending conversation with

0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:03.239
<v Speaker 1>stock uh stock crisis moving higher. Well, it's gonna make

0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:04.639
<v Speaker 1>more You're gonna make more money if you get a

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:08.359
<v Speaker 1>corporate tax cut. Right. Look, the old chestnut is that stocks,

0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, climb a wall of worry. And that's certainly

0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.200
<v Speaker 1>to some degree what we're doing now. If you're asking

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:18.080
<v Speaker 1>the question, we've had a phenomenal run here since the election. Uh,

0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, the smps up more than ten percent, the

0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 1>Russell's up more than Should we have a correction here?

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 1>In their terms, I can't disagree with that. And and

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.320
<v Speaker 1>and the reality is that stocks do look a little

0:18:28.359 --> 0:18:30.560
<v Speaker 1>over brought to me here in near tournament. I wouldn't

0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.320
<v Speaker 1>be at all surprised if we had a modest correction,

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.960
<v Speaker 1>which I would define is something in the you know,

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:39.679
<v Speaker 1>two to five percent neighborhood. But if I'm looking out

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:41.640
<v Speaker 1>over the next three years, Let's say, if I'm looking

0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:45.639
<v Speaker 1>out three years and I'm putting in place trump Anomics,

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:50.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, tax cuts, deregulation, more infrastructure spending, YadA, YadA,

0:18:50.320 --> 0:18:55.600
<v Speaker 1>YadA YadA. We're we're looking at SMP. What's the worst

0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:58.720
<v Speaker 1>bet over the next twelve months? In your opinion, it

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:01.680
<v Speaker 1>ought to be treasury yields. Treasury yields out to work

0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:05.359
<v Speaker 1>higher that that if if if economic growth and inflation

0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.119
<v Speaker 1>tick up as they should over the next two years.

0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.200
<v Speaker 1>Treasury yields ought to go up as well. But from

0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 1>let's say a retiree standpoint, if somebody is about to

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:17.840
<v Speaker 1>retire and they have a sort of safe allocation two bonds,

0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:20.080
<v Speaker 1>is it going to be a blood bath for them

0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 1>or is it going to be a little bit of pain,

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:25.320
<v Speaker 1>but ultimately it should be an orderly kind of move

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 1>into another rate cycle. Well, that's a different question, which

0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.440
<v Speaker 1>is to say that not every retiree has all of

0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.800
<v Speaker 1>their money in benchmark tenure treasuries. You know, our fixed

0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.879
<v Speaker 1>income guys would say that we would underweigh treasuries, but

0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 1>there are other aspects of the fixed income market that

0:19:40.800 --> 0:19:43.920
<v Speaker 1>are perfectly fine spread products. And then our equity guys

0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:46.960
<v Speaker 1>would say, well, you ought to have, you know, even

0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.439
<v Speaker 1>though they're not doing so great at the moment, you

0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.359
<v Speaker 1>ought to have some of the big dividend payers on

0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.280
<v Speaker 1>the equity side, your your reats and your utilities and

0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.479
<v Speaker 1>consumer staples and whatever, because those are companies that are

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:02.040
<v Speaker 1>paying you three or four five percent dividend yields when

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.560
<v Speaker 1>you've got a treasury yield, you know, paying half that

0:20:04.560 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 1>at two and a half percent. So there are ways

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:10.320
<v Speaker 1>for a retiree to get their income without having you know,

0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>all of their money. And treasury yields benchmark tenure treasury

0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:16.479
<v Speaker 1>bonds with the yields are going up in the prices

0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:19.680
<v Speaker 1>are going down. Phil Orlando, thanks very much for spending

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 1>time with us. You've got to spend more time. Always

0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 1>my pleasure. Just invite me, invite me, I'll come your time.

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:28.159
<v Speaker 1>I should say he's got a red heart tie on

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:34.320
<v Speaker 1>Happy check out, ordinating cuff links. He thinks ahead, he's

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:39.119
<v Speaker 1>got as they say, he's a strategic thinker, and so

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:43.000
<v Speaker 1>are you. Thank you, Phil Orlando, Chief equity strategist for

0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Federated Global Investment Management. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

0:20:53.200 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to

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<v Speaker 1>interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud or whatever podcast as platform you prefer.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at pim Fox.

0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:07.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one

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