WEBVTT - Trump Losing Support From Key Conservatives 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the worlds of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.000 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:21.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:24.000 pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and be sure to watch 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.400 us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. So 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.240 let's get into it. So many headlines delighted to have 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:33.720 with us. Dr William Moss, Executive Director of the International 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:38.680 Vaccine Access Center, Professor in the Departments of Epidemiology, International Health, 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:42.839 and Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:45.640 School of Public Health, and of course the Johns Hopkins 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.200 Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:51.559 founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Moss with 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:53.959 us on the phone in Baltimore. I wanted to lay 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.520 it all out for everyone. Dr Moss. First of all, 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:59.040 thank you so much for being here, Um, I do 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:00.960 feel like there's so much going on, and I feel 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:04.200 like it's it's some optimism and yet again a reminder 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:07.080 that we are still in a global pandemic. That's worrisome. 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.200 Yes it is, and thank you for having me, Carol. Um. 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:15.559 We are seeing record numbers of cases in the United States. 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:20.680 We're seeing high numbers of deaths, hospitals that are really 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.480 being stretched to the limits, and that that pattern is 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:26.720 going to continue for the next couple of months as 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:31.680 we head into winter, more more people being indoors, more 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:35.399 people interact indoors into the holiday season. But as you 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:40.360 said there, we also have some optimism with the reports 0:01:40.800 --> 0:01:44.800 of the vaccine efficacy from the fist or vaccine being 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:49.640 much higher than people expected, recognizing that we only know 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:53.760 about this through a press release presumably from a review 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.920 of the data by an independent day if they monitoring board. 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.760 But well, we still do not know right as as 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.800 these headlines come out from a fiser. We're anticipating some 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:06.200 news from Maderna as well. That's promising. We don't know 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:10.440 what how long protection lasts. We don't know exactly what 0:02:10.520 --> 0:02:14.560 these vaccine ultimately will do. Right, that's right there, are 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:18.600 still a number of outstanding questions. Then I have a 0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:22.600 confidence will be able to answer these questions. But what 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:27.720 we know now is that in this late stage of 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:32.480 these phase three clinical trials, with the results from the 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:39.360 Fiser vaccine demonstrating showing you know, high protection of people 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:43.560 who got the vaccine were protected compared to the placebo group. UM. 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.680 But as you said, there's still a number of outstanding questions. 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:50.639 For example, we don't know what the vaccine efficacy is 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:55.600 in older adults or people with underlying medical conditions that 0:02:55.720 --> 0:02:58.880 place them at higher risk for severe disease of COVID 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.960 nineteen that come out of the trial results, But we 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:05.079 don't know that now. We don't know how long this 0:03:05.160 --> 0:03:09.959 protection is gonna last. We hope it's gonna last a year, 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:12.840 years or more UM, but we just don't know, and 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:17.080 that's going to take further follow of these participants in 0:03:17.120 --> 0:03:21.919 the trials Until we really know how long the protection lasts. 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:26.480 We also won't know whether they're the long term side effects. UM. Again, 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.040 we need the longer follow up, We need the full 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.240 trial data to be able to see that. But right now, 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:35.200 what we'll be able to say is in the short term, 0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:39.119 this these vaccines look protective, vaccines look safe. At least 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.160 that's what I'm hoping for. Well, yes, fingers crossed, right, 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:45.000 Dr Mossa. What happens next? Um? You know, I do 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.240 feel like we are all learning about I've said it before, 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:51.720 how the sausage is made in terms of vaccine development, right, 0:03:51.760 --> 0:03:54.120 and we're all talking about it so much. And I 0:03:54.160 --> 0:03:56.920 know that there's some nervousness about the rapidity of the process, 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.880 but we are learning about how it all happens. So 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:03.400 what's kind of next year, whether it's the Fiser vaccine, 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:07.040 whether it's Maderna's vaccine. What are you anticipating how things 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.800 play out over the next few weeks, a few months. Yes, 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:13.000 and you're exactly right. I don't think there's ever been 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:18.880 such public scrutiny of the vaccine development and evaluation products. 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:23.000 What we anticipate happening next is that a company such 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:27.120 as Fiser Maderna will need to put admit an application 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:32.119 to the Food and Drug Administration for emergency use authorization 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:37.080 so that these vaccines could be made available to high 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:41.720 risk individuals as early as possible. What the Food and 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:46.320 Drug Administration has put forth as guidelines is that the 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:50.719 trials need to wait until at least half of the 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.600 participants have had two months of follow up uh. Fiser 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:58.800 anticipates that that's going to happen later this month or 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.280 fourth week of November, and then they will be able 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:06.719 to submit their application for an emergency use authorization to 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:10.320 the f d A. The the all the trial data 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:14.680 will then be reviewed by an independent body. Hopefully data 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:18.520 will be made public. Hopefully this whole process will be transparent. 0:05:18.960 --> 0:05:22.039 We need that for the public's trust UM and they 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:26.679 would anticipate shortly after the application and this review process 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:30.320 that there would be, assuming the safety and efficacy data 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:34.160 hold up UM, that will have an emergency use authorization. 0:05:34.680 --> 0:05:38.920 Fiser says that they'll have forty fifty million doses ready 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:43.400 to go UM by the end of this year. That's 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.279 been one of the things that's allowed this process to 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:50.440 be accelerated, that the manufacturing has has gone on with 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:54.280 the studies and nothing changes. Right. The drug is the drug, 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.000 so it's not like wait a minute, up, so we 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.000 have to tinker with the vaccine a little bit, right 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:00.839 what it is, and that's why they've been all to vaccine, 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:05.800 I mean to manufacture the vaccine exactly, so you know, 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:09.279 there would have not be any any kind of changes 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:12.680 to the vaccine that was used during the trials. They have, 0:06:12.720 --> 0:06:15.800 but they have scaled up that manufacturing. So bottom line, 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:19.080 emergency use, Dr Moss, you anticipated by the end of 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.920 the year, especially for those who really need it. I 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:27.400 think so. Again, assuming that the safety and efficacy data 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:30.160 hold up that we're hearing about through this press release, 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.919 I would expect by the end of this year, and 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:36.280 and perhaps earlier in December, that we would have an 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:40.120 emergency use authorization and begin to h Then then we 0:06:40.160 --> 0:06:43.279 could begin to provide the vaccine to the high risk 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:47.320 individuals that may be healthcare workers and older adults. So 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:49.640 one of the things I wanted to ask you is 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:54.000 there was a story, Doctor Moss that talked specifically and 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:56.320 let me just find it. It had to do with 0:06:56.440 --> 0:07:01.560 I think MINX and just what that meant the COVID explosion. Mink. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:06.119 Our headline was that it's a dangerous sign for vaccines. Um, 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:08.560 tell me what we need to know and what this 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:13.480 might mean. Well, what what we want to know it 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:18.800 is a fascinating story, is whether this virus can be 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:25.920 transmitted among animals? Uh that are you know, potentially introduced 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.920 from humans to animals. We know that that this virus 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:32.400 probably started in animals, perhaps bats uh, and then was 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:37.400 transmitted to humans UM. But finding the virus circulating in 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:42.600 other wild animals UM makes it, you know, raises concerns 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:47.360 about our ability to really rid ourselves of this virus. 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:51.920 UM would the virus can mutate and change its genetic 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:56.960 structure within animals UM, but it also animals wild animals 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:00.720 can also serve as a reservoir of the virus, potentially 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:05.440 sending the virus back into human populations. That's what we 0:08:05.480 --> 0:08:08.720 would be concerned about. We don't have evidence of that yet, 0:08:09.000 --> 0:08:13.760 but that's why that was such a important news. So 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.320 if that was the case, that animals can serve as 0:08:16.320 --> 0:08:19.240 a reservoir to send the virus back to humans, it 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.440 just sounds terrible. Does that mean that we could potentially 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:24.920 have a world where we are just constantly dealing with 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:30.360 this Yes, and even without an animal reservoir, you know, 0:08:30.400 --> 0:08:34.800 another a new animal reservoir or another animal reservoir, we 0:08:34.880 --> 0:08:37.840 still maybe living with this virus for a long time. 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.439 It's clear that we're going to be able to eradicate 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:47.040 this virus from human transmission. But if we're able to 0:08:47.080 --> 0:08:51.599 achieve and and we you know that's potentially possible with 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:57.080 a highly effective vaccine that that stops transmission um. Having 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:02.080 an animal reservoir just that's so much more difficult because 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:08.120 potentially we could have new human infections. Okay, I'm just 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:11.400 sitting with that. So what I'm trying to yeah, right, 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.720 just just kind of like layer it on. You know. 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:15.360 The other thing I guess I've been trying to get 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:17.200 my head around is I mean the virus that we 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:21.120 deal with, the seasonal flu virus that we deal with, right, 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.120 it mutates, right, and we're constantly trying to come up 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.280 with new vaccines. You can alter it and kind of 0:09:26.360 --> 0:09:29.559 keep ahead of it. As a COVID nineteen, Well it's 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.560 COVID nineteen because of when it started getting you know, 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:36.679 coming in. But this particular strain of coronavirus, as it mutates, 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.400 how quickly is it or how easily is it to 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:44.400 adapt an existing vaccine to keep up with the mutations. Right, 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:48.439 That's a really important question. And you know, influenza is 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.840 a very different type of virus. Um. It has the 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:56.520 ability to kind of swap out pieces of itself. Uh, 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.720 it's it's genetic it's genome um and that allows it 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:04.160 to make big changes. That's why we get pandemic influenza. 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:07.600 But even smaller changes are are why we need to 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:13.680 have a different vaccine each year. Corona the Stars coronavirus 0:10:13.720 --> 0:10:18.360 two does mutate. All viruses mutate, all all viruses change 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.880 their genetic structure, but we we haven't seen that. We 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:26.400 don't see the degree of mutation and change, uh, certainly 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.240 that we see with influenza viruses. And just to give 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:33.600 you another example, the measles the measles vaccine that we 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.280 use in most of the world in the United States 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:39.480 that came from a wild type measles virus isolate from 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.040 the nineteen fifties, and we have not needed to change 0:10:43.040 --> 0:10:46.520 our measles vaccines over time. So I think that the 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:51.240 coronavirus will be closer to measles than to influenza in 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:56.720 terms of our need to uh constantly update or reinvent 0:10:57.000 --> 0:11:02.000 our our coronavirus vaccines. So that's a good thing, right, Yes, 0:11:02.240 --> 0:11:05.359 that's a good thing. Yes. So what do you anticipate, 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.559 I mean, do you feel like you have some visibility? 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.839 I felt like the world got some visibility Monday because 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:12.120 of Fiser and we felt a little bit more confident. 0:11:12.440 --> 0:11:14.679 UM just got about fifty seconds left. You feel like 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.840 a year from now we're able to open up society 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:22.800 more than you know, than we have been. Or is 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:24.680 it a shorter time frame or a longer time frame? 0:11:24.720 --> 0:11:28.600 What do you think? Yes, I'm optimistic that we'll be 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:32.400 able to data vactors will be able to have enough vaccine, 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:35.640 probably different types of vaccines, and be able to get 0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:40.480 these to the general public probably in mid to late one, 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.960 and that that will help us begin open up. But 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:47.000 I think it's very important for people to know that 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:51.000 that's not going to happen in January. In February and March, 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:55.600 we're going to have We're facing a very difficult winter, 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.800 I think here in the United States and i'm sure 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:01.800 in Europe, UM, and we're gonna need to continue to 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:05.600 to wear masks and and distance and wash our hands 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:10.120 and all those met those public health measures until later year. 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:12.760 I'm glad you said that masks and social distancing because 0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.200 I just want everyone to remember, UM and we've been 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.400 talking to a lot of folks right it's multifaceted and 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:21.000 getting this under control, UM, Dr Moss Brilliant, executive director 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:24.000 of the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins, joining 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:27.600 us on the phone from Baltimore. This is Bloomberg Business 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:30.959 Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. All right, do 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.600 you want to get into something that kicks off on Monday. 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.199 We're talking about the Bloomberg New Economy Form. It kicks 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:40.920 off virtually four days of incredible global, global programming with 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:45.280 a blockbuster lineup of leaders, and they cover kind of 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.400 all the global concerns that we need to be talking about. 0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:50.640 It's also, by the way, our cover story this week. 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.439 Let's get into it with Business Week Economics editor Christina 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.560 Lynn Blatch. She's in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, and 0:12:56.600 --> 0:12:59.080 also with us Bloomberg Business Week Editor Joel Webber, he 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.800 is on the phone in Brooklyn. Until you have an 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:05.720 array of stories in the magazine that relate to the 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:09.600 Bloomberg New Economy Forum, that's right, And and really Christina 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.240 was the architect of this little package of stories and 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:15.280 and she did a great job. And that was one 0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:17.880 of the reasons that um I wanted to have around 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:20.920 the show today. And obviously we talked about Zel yesterday, 0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:24.880 which is um, I thought just a phenomenally interesting one, 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:28.480 UM in regards to Venezuela and sort of how people 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.080 they are making use of it to do something that 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.960 you know, the company and you know Zell never intended 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.760 to have happened. Um. And that's just sort of an example. 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.679 I think of the approach that Christina used throughout the 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:41.960 issue is sort of like, how do we tap into 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:45.440 some of these biggest challenges that that we face, that 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:49.240 humanity faces, And obviously that kind of starts with the 0:13:49.280 --> 0:13:51.440 pandemic since that is the you know, one of the 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.520 stories of the year for sure. UM, Christina can that 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.240 and kind of lay out, um, what what you learned 0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:01.400 about this story by Jason Galen and Longhaulers. Yeah, thanks 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.720 Carol for having me on. I've been interested in the 0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.040 long haulers for a while because I think we were 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:11.080 also focused for every day still on infection rates and 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:15.920 hospitalizations and and and that, but also to understand that 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:19.920 there are people who some of them have symptoms that 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.720 are so bad that they're almost disabled, they cannot go 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.320 back to work and it's been several months, and and 0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:29.560 that the scientific and health community can't answer the questions 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:34.080 that they have about whether they're ultimately going to be 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:36.960 done with this, you know, how long are they going 0:14:37.000 --> 0:14:41.560 to have these symptoms? Well, and it's interesting Christina, considering um, 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.240 you know, I think there's sometimes some populations being kind 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:49.120 of cavalier about COVID nineteen. And you have to remember that, 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.160 you know, some people get it, they don't have a 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.400 lot of um, you know, leftover effects if you will, 0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.600 and then other people get it and it stays with them, 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.520 as you just said, for a really long time. It's 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:01.240 just a reminder that this virus packs us all in 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.640 very different ways. That's right. Actually, one of the things 0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:08.119 that we found is that sometimes people who had no symptoms, 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:12.120 are very light symptoms actually had the biggest problems with 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:16.680 you know, the sort of long term viral um hangover 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:21.200 you would say, hm, and you know the other hangover 0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:24.160 that um we're all going to kind of be faced with. 0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:27.920 Here is the economic implications of this, because COVID can 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:33.080 have multi organ impacts and implications, and we're also starting 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.360 to see that there will be an impact in terms 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.920 of disability. What does that mean for all of us? Christina? Well, 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:42.440 that's I think we talked to several researchers who are 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:45.600 trying to answer just that question, and something that's starting 0:15:45.600 --> 0:15:49.200 to grapple with I mean, there have been comparisons to polio, 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:53.880 for instance, to try to have long range estimates. So 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:56.280 what would it be like if there had been no 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.880 vaccines that you know, they came in at the right time. 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.560 And I think that's going to be important here. Obviously 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:05.160 the vaccine, you know, not to have more infected population, 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:07.560 but we still will have to answer the questions of 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:11.440 how we help people who UM have damaged their organs, 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:17.040 their hearts UM and sometimes need UM not just pulmonary rehabilitation, 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:23.680 but they're also having people describe brain fogs. M. So 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.640 Christine and I want to talk to about Tom or 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:30.920 like a Bloomberg economic story which sort of talks about 0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:34.040 how they've done. They crunch a bunch of numbers to 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.560 try and figure out sort of what the path of 0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:39.720 global economies is going to look like over the next 0:16:39.760 --> 0:16:42.240 couple of years and decades, and they go so far 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.600 as to say, right about, we're going to see a 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:50.359 shift in terms of UM free market economies being overtaken 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:54.240 by by state driven ones. UM. Can you talk about 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:56.640 what where else he goes in that story and what 0:16:56.680 --> 0:16:58.800 it means for for us. Can I just say to 0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.040 this is a must read. Everybody has to read this 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:05.080 to kind of understand, I think where our world is going. Christina, Yeah, 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.679 I think he did a good job of laying out 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:10.520 where where we're going to be at mid century and 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:14.280 to put numbers to something that we've been tracking for 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:17.040 a while, which is the sort of some people said 0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:20.000 the Asian century, you know, like that this the century 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:25.080 belongs to Asia and so overall emerging markets. Um at 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.320 the start of the century where about of GDP, but 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.040 you know, through by twenty fifty, there will be more 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.680 than half, almost six, and China will be by far, 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:40.360 you know, the biggest um the biggest part of that. 0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:43.240 And we have this great graphic that sort of shows 0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:46.240 the reordering of the top ten economies, you know, and 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:50.479 basically China bumps the US off the number one slot, 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:54.239 India bumps Japan out of number three slot, and you know, 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:57.240 and you see sort of the kind of youthful developing markets, 0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.959 you know, moving up and the sort of aging econom 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:02.560 me is moving down. I gotta I have to say, 0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:04.280 like I said, this is a mustery, but there's a 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.280 line in the story. It's optimistic to assume that all 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:09.000 these transitions will be smooth. Ha, Like it's going to 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:13.160 be uncomfortable right as these changes happen globally, well we've 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:16.400 seen in the last four years and even now when Biden, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:22.680 you know, will assume office that that, um, the big 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:24.960 power struggles that are going on right there, going on 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.679 in the fields of trade of I P, you know, 0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:30.480 and all these different dimensions. I mean, there's this idea 0:18:30.560 --> 0:18:33.919 that you know that it's there's bound to be conflict 0:18:34.320 --> 0:18:37.800 when there are these these sort of disruptions in the 0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:42.680 in the sort of established order. Christian. I also want 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:46.840 to talk about the other elephant in the room, which 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.920 is climate change. And I know Eric Crosston was on 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:55.560 program yesterday talk about the story the wildfire story uh 0:18:55.640 --> 0:18:59.800 in California, which is this, you know, really a case 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:06.040 in how bad wildfires can get and as climate change 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:08.960 amplifies these things to make it worse. It's it's it 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:12.520 means millions of people find themselves with fires at the 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:14.760 front door, when you know, just a few decades ago 0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:18.520 that wasn't a problem. Uh. And want to talk about 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.600 the angle that was really in that story around insurance 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:26.240 and what it means for that industry. Well, I think 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.960 what was really interesting about that stories is to focus 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.080 on the modeling of risk, which is integral to the 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.679 insurance industry. So for flooding, for example, there's been years 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:39.560 um of work already done on what areas and homes 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.280 are at risk. But for fire, this is a much 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:47.399 more emerging field. Maybe not so much emerging, but that 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:51.720 there's so many factors, more factors at work. UM that 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:54.160 we talked, for example, to people who are building these 0:19:54.200 --> 0:19:56.960 models and saying, oh, I can never actually finish building 0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.239 this model because then we realized, you know, there's this 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:02.680 other factor that we didn't account for properly. Well, this 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:07.680 these models formed the foundation of kind of of how 0:20:07.720 --> 0:20:12.240 the insurance industry looks at the risk that it faces 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.919 in that state. And we have this great anecdote about 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.960 one UM scientists who delivered a presentation and in the 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:23.199 audience where several people representative from the insurance industry. His 0:20:23.280 --> 0:20:26.199 presentation was about what happens in fires that breakout in 0:20:26.359 --> 0:20:30.040 canyons um and and the people after came up to 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:32.840 him and said, that's it. We're done, Like we're getting 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:34.439 out of the state. It's like, if you know what 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:39.000 I mean, if the just such crazy scary scenarios that yeah, 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:41.480 it's just you know, things that we've never thought we'd 0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:43.720 be dealing with. But right, and there's so many implications 0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:46.960 of it. Um great stuff as always Bloomberg Business Week, 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.359 Economics that are Christina Lynn Blad and of course our 0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:51.960 Bloomberg Business we get it, or Joel Weber joining us, 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:54.480 the Bloomberg New Economy form. It does kick off on Monday. 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:58.680 It's virtually it's four days of global programming, a blockbuster agenda, 0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:03.080 a lineup of leaders in business, government, finance, the market's, healthcare, climate, 0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.000 you name it. And they are dealing with everything from 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:10.159 the coronavirus to climate change, really the biggest challenges humanity faces. 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:12.040 I'm looking forward to a panel I'm doing later in 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.359 the week that's all about how did we get here 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:16.880 when it comes to a virus. It's amazing in terms 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:20.720 of the lineup. This is Bloomberg Business Week with furo 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:24.800 Master on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed, you are listening to 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.399 Bloomberg Business Week. We're gonna stay with politics from a 0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:30.400 We just talked with Jonathan Bernstein about Joe Biden's pick 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.959 uh for his White House chief of staff. But we 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.760 want to get to what seems to feel like some 0:21:37.560 --> 0:21:40.320 a little bit of a political shift in uh the 0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:42.560 horror should say, a shift in the political wins. Yeah, 0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:44.360 I'll get that out, um, at least when it comes 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:47.439 to President Trump support from some key conservatives. Back with 0:21:47.560 --> 0:21:50.280 us on what's going on and why, Bloomberg News Politics 0:21:50.400 --> 0:21:53.199 editor Wendy Benjaminson. She is back with us on the 0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:55.439 phone from d C. I'm just trying to keep up 0:21:55.440 --> 0:21:58.800 with the headlines. I'm just gonna tell you, um, what's 0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:02.000 going on with the conservatives and kind of coming out 0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:05.520 like it's time to call this election. Basically back off. 0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:08.040 It's at least that's what it feels like, Wendy. It 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:11.439 feels like that Carol High and yet it's not quite 0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:15.000 that yet. What they're saying is that he should be 0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:20.560 getting an intelligence briefing every day, which every president elect gets, um, 0:22:20.600 --> 0:22:23.639 a secure intelligence briefing what's going on in the world, 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:26.840 because he's going to take over on January twenty, and 0:22:27.320 --> 0:22:29.480 they sort of like to know what's going on before 0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:33.800 they get into the Oval office. Because the Trump administration 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:38.560 is blocking his access to the normal transition activities. Joe Biden, 0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:41.160 who even though he's a former vice president, is now 0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:45.119 a private citizen yet president elect um, he doesn't have 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:49.320 access to classified information and they will not make those available. 0:22:49.359 --> 0:22:53.560 So some conservative senators, especially those on the Senate Intelligence Committee, 0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:56.720 are saying, come on, at least give him the intelligence 0:22:56.760 --> 0:22:59.600 briefings in case he's president. We think it's better for 0:22:59.640 --> 0:23:02.600 the war old that he has, you know, deep inside 0:23:02.600 --> 0:23:05.240 into what's going on. Well, we as Americans, should we 0:23:05.280 --> 0:23:09.560 be concerned that he's not? I don't think terribly concerned. 0:23:09.600 --> 0:23:12.800 Biden himself said that at a news conference that he 0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:15.680 held on Wednesday Tuesday. Excuse me, he said he would 0:23:15.800 --> 0:23:17.639 it would be nice if he was getting it, but 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:20.680 he's confident that he'll be able to catch up. Of course, 0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:24.840 that's him trying to create a contrast. Biden has been 0:23:24.960 --> 0:23:29.320 very careful lately to project this calm, everything's okay, a 0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:32.679 worry sort of attitude, while Trump is um. While President 0:23:32.720 --> 0:23:36.520 Trump is rage tweeting. So it's um. It's it's a strategy, 0:23:36.600 --> 0:23:38.360