1
00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,160
Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

2
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,160
Speaker 1: where we discuss the top political headlines with some of

3
00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,080
Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Trump says to his supporters, even

4
00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,720
Speaker 1: if you die voting from me, it'll be worth it.

5
00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:18,120
Speaker 1: We have such an interesting show today. Democratic strategist Simon

6
00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,919
Speaker 1: Rosenberg tells us what he's watching in order to predict

7
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four election. Then we'll talk to every

8
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 1: Town usay is Jonathan fine Black about the downfall of

9
00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:33,200
Speaker 1: the NRA and how every town is policing gun manufacturers.

10
00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,880
Speaker 1: But first we have the host of the Katie Fang Show,

11
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:41,640
Speaker 1: the One, the Only Katie Fang. Welcome two Fast Politics.

12
00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,479
Speaker 1: My actual friend, who I hang out with and who

13
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: I love and who is on my Instagram all the time.

14
00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:54,000
Speaker 1: Katie Fang. Hello, Hello, So Katie, you have a new

15
00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:59,000
Speaker 1: show premiering on Saturday, which is The Katie Fang Show,

16
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,880
Speaker 1: New Time, New Place, but all Katie.

17
00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:08,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's new Time, same Katie Fangs Show. I think

18
00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,559
Speaker 2: I'll call it Kikanti, same spite that we can have.

19
00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,600
Speaker 2: But I'd like to think, you know, I'm kind of

20
00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:17,800
Speaker 2: venturing out on year three of the Katie Fang Show.

21
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,080
Speaker 2: So We're gonna try some different stuff. It's still going

22
00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 2: to be the same focus on law, politics, culture, etc.

23
00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,480
Speaker 2: But you know, you may see some new stuff coming

24
00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,320
Speaker 2: out this year. I think it makes sense for us

25
00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:31,520
Speaker 2: to kind of branch out a little bit and see,

26
00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,680
Speaker 2: you know, what else we can do. But I'm excited.

27
00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 2: Twelve o'clock Eastern means that my incredibly faithful and loyal

28
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,160
Speaker 2: followers on the West Coast can actually sleep in and

29
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 2: watch at nine am Pacific, which would be great for them.

30
00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:49,240
Speaker 1: So let's talk about Trump Legal because that seems like

31
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:54,840
Speaker 1: an endless cavalcade of excitement and excitement. I mean, fuck great.

32
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,680
Speaker 1: So let's talk about what the landscape looks like right now,

33
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 1: sort of what's coming up, what's just happened? Give me

34
00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:06,440
Speaker 1: the sort of four one one on this, Okay.

35
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,320
Speaker 2: So we are waiting to see what the d C.

36
00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,760
Speaker 2: Circuit Court of Appeals does with the Donald Trump's appeal

37
00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:16,080
Speaker 2: of Judge Tanya Chukin's decision to deny his emotion to

38
00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,239
Speaker 2: dismiss on the basis of absolute presidential immunity and double.

39
00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:21,839
Speaker 1: Jeffrey right, that's that he's a king.

40
00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,760
Speaker 2: It's actually more than a king. I feel like sometimes

41
00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,720
Speaker 2: maybe in the history of the world that were enlightened spots,

42
00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,959
Speaker 2: and maybe they were, you know, kings and queens. I mean,

43
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:34,520
Speaker 2: what he's asking for is Corplank to do whatever he

44
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,639
Speaker 2: wants to do, whenever he wants to do it, under

45
00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,519
Speaker 2: the guise of the Oval Office. And I think people

46
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 2: don't appreciate the danger of it, and they probably should

47
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,440
Speaker 2: by now when you hear a ceteral appellate judge. And

48
00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,080
Speaker 2: I'm sure this is the first time any of these

49
00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,919
Speaker 2: incredibly brilliant jurists have ever asked a lawyer during oral

50
00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,720
Speaker 2: arguments in their careers, right, you know, so you're saying,

51
00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:02,640
Speaker 2: mister Sower, that your client or president could order the

52
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:06,400
Speaker 2: assassination of a political rival by dispatching Seal Team six

53
00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,480
Speaker 2: and he would have immunity, to which Sours says, Oh,

54
00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:12,080
Speaker 2: I'll give you a qualified yes. I mean, when you

55
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,600
Speaker 2: have that type of Q and A going on, you

56
00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,440
Speaker 2: know that we've jumped the shark, but we've done it

57
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,400
Speaker 2: in away. Where Now those safeguards, those guardrails, stuff that

58
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,160
Speaker 2: you and I talk about a lot on my show, Molly,

59
00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,920
Speaker 2: those have been destroyed. And I think that's the most

60
00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 2: disconcerting thing that the destruction of norms by Donald Trump

61
00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:35,200
Speaker 2: has become just so okay by the GOP and others

62
00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,320
Speaker 2: that we face a very real, very scary, terrifying, uphill

63
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,480
Speaker 2: battle to get us back to where we need to be.

64
00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:47,200
Speaker 1: That Trump lawyer's argument that the president could do crimes

65
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,000
Speaker 1: and that you would just have to impeach and convict

66
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,280
Speaker 1: before you could prosecute, which is so interesting because remember,

67
00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:58,640
Speaker 1: impeachment was created as a political mechanism, right, it is

68
00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:02,160
Speaker 1: not a legal mechanism. And we saw this happen in

69
00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 1: other impeachments, right like Nixon's impeachment or even Bill Clinton's impeachment. Right,

70
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,560
Speaker 1: political mechanism, but also a way for a president to

71
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,120
Speaker 1: be held accountable when they did something really beyond the pale.

72
00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,440
Speaker 1: One of the things I'm so impressed with with Trump world,

73
00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,200
Speaker 1: and impressed by impressed, I mean, these guys are such hypocrites,

74
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,280
Speaker 1: is that they will do a thing where they'll say like, no,

75
00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,599
Speaker 1: you have to try them and a court of law

76
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,599
Speaker 1: during the impeachment, and then during the trial they'll be like, no,

77
00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,400
Speaker 1: this was something that should have been dealt with during impeachment.

78
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, And one of the three appellate judges during the

79
00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:40,920
Speaker 2: oral arguments this past week made that distinction and said,

80
00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 2: you know your client and you may not have been

81
00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,400
Speaker 2: the lawyer at the time, mister Sewer, but your client

82
00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 2: explicitly stated that impeachment should be stayed. You know it

83
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:53,680
Speaker 2: occurs at all, there's recourse available, and that's when Trump

84
00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:56,279
Speaker 2: is out of the office. And now mister Sowerry, you're claiming,

85
00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,000
Speaker 2: oh no, no, no, you have to be impeaching pcted.

86
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 2: I mean, that's the reason why a lot of us,

87
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,479
Speaker 2: in terms of legal experts, we're waiting to see what

88
00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 2: happens because it is a foregone conclusion that this DC

89
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,440
Speaker 2: Circuit Court of Appeals is going to affirm the decision

90
00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,120
Speaker 2: by Judge Chuck into deny these motions to dismiss, and

91
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,039
Speaker 2: so the Supreme Court in the United States then has

92
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:15,479
Speaker 2: to decide whether or not it wants to take this

93
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,080
Speaker 2: case or not. Now, it could just let that decision

94
00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,560
Speaker 2: by the DC Circuit stand. But you know, I've had

95
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,760
Speaker 2: conversations with others, I mean, and this is an admission

96
00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,880
Speaker 2: of how you know much of a loggeek I am

97
00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:29,400
Speaker 2: that these conversations dominate my life outside of the Katie

98
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,040
Speaker 2: Fang Show. And when I do legal analysis on MS

99
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:35,760
Speaker 2: and we talk about how he's raised this defense and

100
00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,720
Speaker 2: other jurisdictions, and so it kind of makes sense that

101
00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:39,320
Speaker 2: Supreme Court will want to take it up to kind

102
00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,280
Speaker 2: of put it to bed. The problem is, if you're

103
00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,479
Speaker 2: a Supreme Court justice, do you necessarily want to touch

104
00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,839
Speaker 2: this issue? I don't think you do. Well, this is

105
00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,280
Speaker 2: the problem, right, you don't want to touch this issue?

106
00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:49,839
Speaker 2: And so are you going to take this issue up?

107
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:51,600
Speaker 2: And that's really the one that we're This is really

108
00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 2: the case that we're waiting to see, you know, what happens,

109
00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:55,880
Speaker 2: because it really drives the rest of the other criminal

110
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:59,040
Speaker 2: prosecutions that are you know, at issue for Donald Trump.

111
00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,800
Speaker 1: And I would say I think it's interesting there are

112
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,800
Speaker 1: a couple of things that Trump wants the Supreme Court

113
00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:09,040
Speaker 1: to weigh in on the Supreme Court that he installed

114
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:10,279
Speaker 1: to weigh in on, right.

115
00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 2: Heah, he always wants these people. But I mean that's

116
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,000
Speaker 2: why Alina Habba is going on Fox News and saying

117
00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,200
Speaker 2: that Charump fought for Brett Kavanaugh and Brett Kalan I

118
00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:20,520
Speaker 2: was going to step up and do the right thing.

119
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,000
Speaker 2: I mean, it is egregious to see the quiet part

120
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,039
Speaker 2: out loud, and yet they don't give a shit, right, like,

121
00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,080
Speaker 2: there's been no accountability for them saying quite part out

122
00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,760
Speaker 2: loud for years. And so that's why she thinks it's

123
00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 2: okay as an attorney who's barred in the state of

124
00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 2: New Jersey and perhaps other the jurisdictions, she thinks it's

125
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,320
Speaker 2: okay to go on natural television and say, hey, Brett,

126
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,360
Speaker 2: are you're listening, Hey Brett, we fought to get you

127
00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:45,440
Speaker 2: on the Supreme Court, and that it seats u OUs.

128
00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:48,240
Speaker 2: It's time to cash in the chit, right, That's what

129
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:48,719
Speaker 2: she's saying.

130
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 1: My guess is she's doing this because even though Brett

131
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,719
Speaker 1: may not watch Fox News, we know Justice Alito loves

132
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,600
Speaker 1: to watch Fox News and has Fox News brain. And

133
00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:02,640
Speaker 1: also just Clarence Thomas's wife, Ginny is.

134
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 3: A far right media act right, Yeah, I mean, and

135
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 3: that's a whole other that's a whole other conversation for

136
00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,880
Speaker 3: us to right about Clarence Thomas not or choosing himself

137
00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,320
Speaker 3: when these cases come before him, especially considering this one

138
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,560
Speaker 3: deals with the heart of the twenty twenty election.

139
00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,520
Speaker 2: I mean, what we're seeing as a collision that was

140
00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,120
Speaker 2: bound to happen and it's a collision of interests, political

141
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,240
Speaker 2: legal interests, the public policy interest. I mean, it's all

142
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,520
Speaker 2: kind of coming to rust. And now you really want

143
00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,240
Speaker 2: to know what your legacy is going to be. I mean, listen,

144
00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:34,440
Speaker 2: if you're a federal court judge that has a lifetime appointment,

145
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,000
Speaker 2: especially through Supreme Court justice, many of you don't care

146
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,800
Speaker 2: what your legacy is. But I would hope that you

147
00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:42,800
Speaker 2: would care about what your legacy is if you decide

148
00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,400
Speaker 2: that somebody like Donald Trump can be not only king

149
00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,880
Speaker 2: for a day, but you know, dictator or autocrat for life.

150
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,440
Speaker 2: But then, you know, I've been seeing these these things

151
00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:54,920
Speaker 2: flying around a social media malli about Oh well, then

152
00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:57,120
Speaker 2: if that's the case, then Joe Biden could take Donald

153
00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,160
Speaker 2: Trump and stick him and GETMO and say it was

154
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,680
Speaker 2: okay for Nashally. I mean, listen, you and I both

155
00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,240
Speaker 2: know that to tit for tat is not the way

156
00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:04,680
Speaker 2: to do this.

157
00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Trumpism only works for Trump. I mean not

158
00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden would never do that. He's very much

159
00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,720
Speaker 1: a traditionalist. But also even if he tried to do that,

160
00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 1: it would never work for Biden.

161
00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:16,960
Speaker 2: On my last Sunday show that I did, I had

162
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 2: this commentary where I said, look, you know it, maybe

163
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:20,440
Speaker 2: it may seem really dark, but we have to keep

164
00:08:20,440 --> 00:08:22,480
Speaker 2: the faith. And that's kind of my manager going into

165
00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:27,520
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. I am very big on reporting what's happening,

166
00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 2: and there's just so much going on legally and politically,

167
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,480
Speaker 2: but you know, we do have power and numbers. There

168
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:35,560
Speaker 2: is a collective power to us, and if we don't

169
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:39,400
Speaker 2: kind of take the bait, and if we don't kind

170
00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:41,800
Speaker 2: of buy into that, we have to respond to it.

171
00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:45,920
Speaker 2: For tat we preserve what's left of democracy in a

172
00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:48,840
Speaker 2: way that should be preserved. I find it to be

173
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 2: so disheartening and exhausting to always be having these conversations,

174
00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,520
Speaker 2: and yet we have to. We have to have these conversations.

175
00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 2: We need to be very blunt about what there is

176
00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,280
Speaker 2: in store for us if Trump wins in November, because

177
00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 2: in the meantime, I don't see these cases going to

178
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,760
Speaker 2: trial before November. I don't have a trial date from

179
00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:08,400
Speaker 2: McAfee and Fulton County yet you don't. I both know

180
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 2: Alen Cannon's going to plunt her trial beyond November, and

181
00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,199
Speaker 2: then depending upon what happens with Skotis and the efficacy

182
00:09:15,280 --> 00:09:18,079
Speaker 2: or the expediency of what happens. You may not get

183
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:22,720
Speaker 2: this chuck and trial before November. The Manhattan DA's office

184
00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,080
Speaker 2: is supposed to go to trial in March, but Alva

185
00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,800
Speaker 2: Bragas said he'll take a back seat to a federal prosecution.

186
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,680
Speaker 2: I mean, there's so much going on, and I feel

187
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:34,080
Speaker 2: like our judicial system. Joyce Vance wrote a piece recently

188
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,440
Speaker 2: about how they owe us expediency. I don't see them

189
00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,080
Speaker 2: moving as fast as they should, but you know, I'm

190
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 2: hoping that we have some type of resolution of at

191
00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:42,600
Speaker 2: least one of these cases by November.

192
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:46,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, you and I are both big Choice fans, fans.

193
00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,680
Speaker 1: She has dealt with cases at this level before, But

194
00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,400
Speaker 1: the case that seemed the most likely to go first

195
00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,120
Speaker 1: was the document's.

196
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:58,120
Speaker 2: Case, right Yeah, but for the assignment to Aileen Cannon.

197
00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,000
Speaker 1: Right, so she's going to keep punting and that is

198
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,120
Speaker 1: really ultimately the case that's the simplest, right.

199
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,040
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I think it's not only the easiest to understand,

200
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 2: but the guilt is in your face. You know. People

201
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,400
Speaker 2: have this big discussion about the Section three fourteenth memic

202
00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,000
Speaker 2: cases that are working the way to the Supreme Court

203
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 2: right now, Colorado is the only one that's made it there.

204
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 2: And you know, when we look at it, and it's

205
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:22,720
Speaker 2: very clear to you and I, right when we have

206
00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:27,400
Speaker 2: our conversations about what constitutes an insurrection, et cetera, what's inciting,

207
00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,800
Speaker 2: what's engaging in an insurrection. I mean, it's pretty black

208
00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:31,520
Speaker 2: and white to us. But you know, and from the

209
00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 2: mall Logo case standpoint, how much more clear does that

210
00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,920
Speaker 2: have to be? The guy wasn't supposed to have the docs.

211
00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,440
Speaker 2: He had them and he didn't return them. I mean,

212
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,360
Speaker 2: that's what you and I teach our kids, right, We've

213
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,280
Speaker 2: taught our kids you're not supposed to take it. If

214
00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,040
Speaker 2: you take it, you're in trouble. I don't mean to

215
00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,160
Speaker 2: make it too elementary, but that's how it's supposed to be.

216
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,679
Speaker 2: I mean, as a prosecutor, you want a case that

217
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,120
Speaker 2: is that straightforward. You want a case that doesn't require

218
00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,400
Speaker 2: you having a conversation about the intent to foment an

219
00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:58,000
Speaker 2: insurrection or rebellion, and so that case is the easiest

220
00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:02,200
Speaker 2: to do. That case was p miss on a search warrant, Molly.

221
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,000
Speaker 2: And that's the other thing that people need to remember.

222
00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:06,760
Speaker 2: You know, all of these were indictments that were returned

223
00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,520
Speaker 2: against Trump and others. But in the mar Alago context,

224
00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,760
Speaker 2: there's a search warrant that was executed on Mar A Lago.

225
00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 2: I mean, there was probable cause that was found over

226
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,400
Speaker 2: and over again that crimes have been committed and that

227
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,160
Speaker 2: the evidence of those crimes would be located in Donald

228
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,440
Speaker 2: Trump's Florida residence. And so I think these are the

229
00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,280
Speaker 2: things that would make it so compelling as a prosecutor.

230
00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:31,600
Speaker 2: But Alien Cannon is held bent on doing her version

231
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,040
Speaker 2: of justice. And you know, I take my job as

232
00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,160
Speaker 2: I'm still a trial lawyer. I mean, I'm not actively

233
00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,400
Speaker 2: practicing that. I take my job as a lawyer and

234
00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:43,640
Speaker 2: my oath of you know, being a lawyer, seriously, Molly.

235
00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:46,679
Speaker 2: And we're not supposed to criticize other lawyers, and we're

236
00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:50,640
Speaker 2: not supposed to criticize judges. But when you see injustice happening,

237
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,640
Speaker 2: you have to see something. Unfortunately for me, I have

238
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,000
Speaker 2: a platform where I'm able to say what I think.

239
00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,240
Speaker 2: I'm calling balls and strikes and if I see something wrong,

240
00:11:57,280 --> 00:11:58,120
Speaker 2: that's what I'm saying.

241
00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, And now I I want to ask you with

242
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:05,080
Speaker 1: the fake electors, there are all these other cases that

243
00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,040
Speaker 1: might be sort of bubbling under the surface.

244
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:07,760
Speaker 2: I mean, do you.

245
00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,080
Speaker 1: Think there will be more cases? We don't have a

246
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,800
Speaker 1: crystal ball as to what cases will go first or

247
00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 1: one they'll happen. Trump obviously wants everything to happen after

248
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,800
Speaker 1: the election because he's really running to stay out of

249
00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:22,280
Speaker 1: jail anyway. But with the fake elector's stuff in Michigan

250
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,200
Speaker 1: and we saw that in other state, it's like, do

251
00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:27,559
Speaker 1: you think that there will be more cases.

252
00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:27,959
Speaker 4: With that stuff?

253
00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,120
Speaker 2: The answer is yes, you're going to see more cases.

254
00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 2: That are several attorneys general in different states and mainly

255
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,920
Speaker 2: the states that we've talked about over the past few

256
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 2: years about where there were active attempts to be able

257
00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,920
Speaker 2: to manipulate the outcome of that twenty twenty election. One

258
00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,680
Speaker 2: of the kind of people that we watched carefully to

259
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,880
Speaker 2: see if there's going to be where charges coming is

260
00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,840
Speaker 2: Ken Chesbrow. So kay Chesbro had doing a little bit

261
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,079
Speaker 2: of what I call a retribution for I need you.

262
00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:58,120
Speaker 1: To stop and explain to our listeners who Ken Cheesebrow is.

263
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 1: And again his name is not Ken Cheesebro, but yes,

264
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,720
Speaker 1: continue Ken.

265
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 2: Cheese bro, Ken chesbro, Ken Cheezbro, the architect of the

266
00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:13,240
Speaker 2: fake electric scheme, fascinatingly, he's very independently wealthy from investments.

267
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,240
Speaker 2: I think he did big Cooin or something whatever.

268
00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:15,959
Speaker 1: Right and cryptodoy.

269
00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:18,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, he lives in Puerto Rico.

270
00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,680
Speaker 1: As well, so he doesn't have to pay federal taxes.

271
00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,960
Speaker 2: Yes, and he has a very interesting personal life. But

272
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 2: ken Chesbro, as we know, moved to sever his case

273
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,079
Speaker 2: file the speedy demand in Fulton County. He was the

274
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 2: architect of the fake elector scheme. He's the guy who

275
00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:36,959
Speaker 2: was writing the memos, him and Jeff Clark. I mean,

276
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,640
Speaker 2: you know, these guys were hustle in right to be

277
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:44,000
Speaker 2: able to get a legal scheme in place so Donald

278
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,480
Speaker 2: Trump could install fake electors in specific states to make

279
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:52,040
Speaker 2: sure that Mike Pence did not certify the valid legal

280
00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,760
Speaker 2: results for the twenty twenty election of Joe Biden be president.

281
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 2: But the reason why I say we should watch ken

282
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,960
Speaker 2: Chesbro what he's doing is I call it his retribution toro,

283
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,280
Speaker 2: although it's two wills away. But as a condition of

284
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:03,600
Speaker 2: his plea of guilty down in Fulton County, Georgia, he's

285
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,640
Speaker 2: had to go and cooperate with other jurisdictions and that's

286
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,480
Speaker 2: what he's been doing. He has been going to different

287
00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,840
Speaker 2: jurisdictions and cooperated with investigations there about fake electric schemes,

288
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,400
Speaker 2: and so I think if you want to know if

289
00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:17,880
Speaker 2: there's other charges that are going to come beyond just Michigan,

290
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,240
Speaker 2: I think that you can look and see where's ken

291
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,560
Speaker 2: Chessbrow kind of like where's Walda, right, where's Ken Chessbrow today?

292
00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:27,040
Speaker 2: What is he doing? Who is he talking to? But ultimately,

293
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,080
Speaker 2: what people need to remember is to prove a case

294
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,480
Speaker 2: beyond and to the exclusion of every reasonable doubt, because

295
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 2: that is the standard of proof and a criminal case,

296
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 2: you need to make sure that each defendant, each criminal

297
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 2: descendant Molly has their own independent liability ability. Right, So

298
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 2: ken Chasbrow going to Arizona or going to another state

299
00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:47,680
Speaker 2: and saying you know, this is what I did and

300
00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:50,200
Speaker 2: doing a Maya kalpa in a full confession is one thing.

301
00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 2: How does that tie to Donald Trump?

302
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:52,640
Speaker 5: Though?

303
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:52,840
Speaker 4: Right?

304
00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,680
Speaker 2: Like, how does it tied to other major players? And

305
00:14:55,880 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 2: Donald Trump? I think if there's one thing he's done

306
00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,520
Speaker 2: really while his entire life is he has figured the

307
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 2: art of not making money because we all know that

308
00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 2: all of that is bullshit, but figured out the art

309
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,800
Speaker 2: of making other people take the fall for him, right,

310
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,880
Speaker 2: He's figured out the art of making other people feel

311
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 2: like they owe him something. Now, there could be because

312
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,280
Speaker 2: he has dirt on them. It could be because he

313
00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:24,000
Speaker 2: has compromonts on them. Fine, but it still takes a

314
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,520
Speaker 2: skill to do that. And no matter how stupid I

315
00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,480
Speaker 2: think he is, no matter some days I think he's

316
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 2: crazy like a fox, Trump has figured out how to

317
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:35,680
Speaker 2: make even brilliant lawyers because by everybody's admission, Ken Chesbrow

318
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 2: is a and was a brilliant.

319
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:39,640
Speaker 1: Right, and he is doing a plea deal.

320
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the band's plead and guilty. People can take the

321
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:46,040
Speaker 2: fall for Trump. But is there the evidence to link?

322
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,960
Speaker 2: And that is what we're always kind of looking at,

323
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 2: which is why getting to your point, mar Alogo, is

324
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 2: the compelling case, the on six case that Chuck and

325
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:56,360
Speaker 2: has even though Chuck and has her, you know, pedal

326
00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 2: to the metal in terms of the gas to get

327
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 2: this thing done that was not is clear cut for

328
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 2: some people. I think it is, but you know, I

329
00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 2: obviously have a bias on this, so you know, we're

330
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,880
Speaker 2: just like the in Manhattan criminal case that one may

331
00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,240
Speaker 2: not be as clear cut for others as well. So

332
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 2: I feel like mar Longo is one of the tightest,

333
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 2: strongest cases. But because of ailing Cannon may not get

334
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 2: there anytime soon.

335
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,800
Speaker 1: Right, And that is so such a bomber. My god,

336
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:29,040
Speaker 1: just on that idea of people taking the fall for

337
00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 1: Trump one, Rudolph Juliani. The thing's going to end well

338
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 1: for Rudolph Juliana.

339
00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:37,640
Speaker 2: He looks like he's going to drop dead any day, right.

340
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not amazing, I'm not wishing it. I'm

341
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 2: just sade. Look that.

342
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 1: I feel like you bet on those actual arial tables

343
00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 1: it never works out. But I'm curious. Legally, the guy's

344
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 1: in a lot of trouble, right.

345
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'll stay in my legal lane, Molly, and

346
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 2: I will you know, opine on dropping debt. So here's

347
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,200
Speaker 2: the deal. Giuliani finally for bankruptcy is not the save

348
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 2: all for him. His continued defamation of Ruby Freeman, Shamas

349
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:05,879
Speaker 2: and others by the way, not just Rugy Freeman and Gamas,

350
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 2: that is going to be a serial problem for him.

351
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 2: The bankruptcy thing is fascinating, and people always think, oh, yeah,

352
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 2: you file for bankruptcy, it goes away. It doesn't. Alex

353
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 2: Jones tried it and sailed miserably. Rudy Giuliani's going to

354
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 2: try this, He's going to feel miserably as well. But

355
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,440
Speaker 2: people also need to know it's not just Seae Aus

356
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 2: and Ruby Freeman that are now judgement. Creditors are going

357
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,439
Speaker 2: to come after Rudy Gielani. He owes a lot of

358
00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:29,240
Speaker 2: money to his sex wife, He owes a lot of

359
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,920
Speaker 2: money to other creditors, and so Giuliani's luck will run

360
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 2: out when the money runs out. But the money hasn't

361
00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 2: run out because Trump is still, you know, pushing people

362
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,280
Speaker 2: to spend fifteen hundred dollars a plate for ditters and

363
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 2: support of Ruey Giuliani. But don't forget there's still leverage

364
00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,920
Speaker 2: in Fulton County because Rudy still has a criminal case

365
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:52,440
Speaker 2: in county. And by the last media reports, Fulton County

366
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,639
Speaker 2: DA Fondi Willis is not going to be offering it

367
00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 2: plea offered to rud Gianni, Mark Meadows and Donald Trump.

368
00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 2: So Rudy is going to have to figure out whether

369
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:04,919
Speaker 2: he can survive I won't say literally getting financially to

370
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,760
Speaker 2: trial in Fulton County. Again, we don't have a trial date.

371
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,360
Speaker 2: There's a lot of stuff that's going on in fact,

372
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 2: there's a hearing tomorrow on some of the stuff that

373
00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 2: he's filed. And so the latest for Rudy Giuliani is

374
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,879
Speaker 2: he wants to be able to interview Sidney Powa, Ken

375
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 2: chesbro Scott Hall, and Jenna Ellis. Those are the four

376
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 2: people that I've taken to police so far in Fulton County.

377
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,119
Speaker 2: He wants to be able to interview them because he

378
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,240
Speaker 2: says he has to get all this information out of them.

379
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:32,640
Speaker 2: But it's interesting because Giuliani still has massive exposure as

380
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 2: well criminally and that has to always remain an incentive

381
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,960
Speaker 2: for him. But I don't know again. I mean, if

382
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 2: there was anybody on that kind of you know, batting

383
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,280
Speaker 2: order of people of lawyers, specifically in Trump world, that

384
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:50,680
Speaker 2: had the greatest fall from grace, it's obviously Rudy Giuliani.

385
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 1: Yes, but he's not alone. Katie Fang, thank you so

386
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 1: much for joining us.

387
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 2: Oh this is lovely. It's like when I'm just hanging

388
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 2: out talking to Mollie John the.

389
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 1: Next Simon Rosenberg as the founder of the New Democrat

390
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 1: Network and the New Policy Institute. Welcome Too Fast Politics, Simon.

391
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,159
Speaker 6: Rosenberg, good to be here, Mollie.

392
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 1: Explain to us a little bit about what you do

393
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 1: and how you got there.

394
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 6: Yeah. So I've been in democratic politics for more than

395
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 6: thirty years. I ran a think tank, I've worked at campaigns.

396
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 6: I've done it all. You know, raised money, do stads,

397
00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 6: the whole thing. And you know, a year and a

398
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 6: half ago I started challenging the conventional wisdom that there

399
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,919
Speaker 6: was a red wave coming based on data that I

400
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 6: was seeing, and I collaborated with a guy named Tom Bonier,

401
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,880
Speaker 6: and he and I were looking at things other than

402
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 6: polling to assess and to gauge the election at twenty

403
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 6: twenty two.

404
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 1: Twenty four to seven, this is all I think about.

405
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 1: What are the things other than polling that can show us?

406
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, look, I think we learned in twenty

407
00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 6: twenty two that's centering your understanding of American politics around

408
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 6: poling is very risky, right, I mean, there was it

409
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 6: didn't work in twenty twenty two, and it didn't work

410
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 6: because there was all these other things. And the other

411
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 6: things were strong democratic performance and special elections all across

412
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 6: the country. In twenty twenty two, after Dobbs, we saw

413
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,880
Speaker 6: voter registration numbers get far better for Democrats. We saw

414
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:21,160
Speaker 6: Democrats out raising Republicans by huge amounts three four, five

415
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 6: to one. And then we saw in the early vote,

416
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 6: you know, heightened democratic performance unexpectedly by the way, heidened

417
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 6: democratic performance, and all of those indicators suggested that the

418
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 6: intensity was with Democrats, not with Republicans, and that it

419
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 6: was the opposite of a red wave. And that's actually

420
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 6: what happened in the election. What happened in the election

421
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:43,719
Speaker 6: was that Democrats dramatically overperformed expectations and pulling. We gained

422
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 6: ground over our twenty twenty results in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Michigan,

423
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 6: New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. We got all the way up

424
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 6: to fifty nine percent in Colorado, fifty seven percent in Pennsylvania,

425
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 6: fifty five percent of Michigan, which would be amazing results

426
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 6: in a good year. And this was so called you know,

427
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 6: red wave, bad year for us. And so, you know,

428
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 6: part of what happened is that I think polling is

429
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 6: really struggling capture the current dynamic of American politics because

430
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 6: for one central reason, which is that response rates and

431
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 6: polling have gone way down, and getting an accurate poll

432
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,920
Speaker 6: now has become much harder and expensive. And what's happening

433
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,320
Speaker 6: is shortcuts are being taken, and we're getting a lot

434
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 6: more junkie polling in our system than we used to,

435
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 6: even from very credible news organizations. I mean, the Washington

436
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 6: Post deserves a lot of credit because they had a

437
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 6: really bad poll a few months ago, and in the

438
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 6: write up of the poll, they acknowledged that they thought

439
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,119
Speaker 6: the data was bad. It would be it would be

440
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 6: good if more media organizations, independent media organizations, were a

441
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 6: little bit more honest about the limitations of polling. And

442
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 6: you know, because it's become such a huge part of

443
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 6: our understanding of our politics. And I'll give you one

444
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,120
Speaker 6: other example, right, I mean, if everything was so bad

445
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 6: for Democrats, and Biden's numbers were so terrible and his

446
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 6: approval reading was so bad, why do we keep winning

447
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 6: elections all over the I mean, twenty twenty three was

448
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 6: an even better year for us politically than twenty twenty two.

449
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 6: We gained ground in state legislative races five points. We

450
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 6: had a five point higher number than we had in

451
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 6: those same districts in twenty twenty a crazy result. We

452
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 6: took away two in the largest Republican cities in America,

453
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 6: Colorado Springs and Jacksonville. We took away it was constant

454
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 6: Supreme Court seat. We took away the six week abortion

455
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 6: ban in Ohio, we took away the state house in Virginia.

456
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 6: It was a blue wave that washed all over the

457
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 6: country this year, and in the political commentary that didn't

458
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 6: even happen, right, It was absent from the discourse and

459
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 6: the understanding. And so I think my basic lesson here

460
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 6: is that there's a lot of other things we can

461
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 6: look at to assess where we are in politics. Polling

462
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 6: has its limitations, and I think the media industrial polling

463
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 6: complex needs to be a little bit more honest about

464
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 6: the limitations of what polling can really tell you.

465
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 1: If we look at twenty sixteen, right, that was an

466
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 1: entire year where we spent leaving that Hillary Clinton had

467
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 1: a seventy eighty ninety percent chance of being elected and

468
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 1: Donald Trump had a fifteen and you know, eleven percent chance.

469
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: And some pollsters, if you complain to them, they'll say, well,

470
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: you don't understand polls or just this or that. But

471
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: I want to get back to this idea about results. Though,

472
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 1: because I certainly believed the red wave narrative, I wondered,

473
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: but I thought, you know, history is president the president's

474
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 1: party always does poorly. I could see historically that there

475
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 1: was some president for a red wave. But in twenty

476
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: twenty three we had had all of these special elections

477
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: where basically every special election since Doobbs, Democrats have done

478
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 1: ten fifteen, I mean, crazy numbers better than they should, right.

479
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: And then there was that Ohio special which was in

480
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: August where they had hidden it away and they got

481
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 1: you know, Democrats won that by ten points or something crazy.

482
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 1: But I know ballot initiatives tend to skew more liberal,

483
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: so maybe I threw that out. But with twenty twenty three,

484
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 1: I really thought, and this is like the sort of

485
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: pundent industrial complex. And me I thought, youngk and wear's

486
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,719
Speaker 1: a vast people like him. You know, he's got this

487
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: number for abortion bands. It's fifteen weeks, it's polled very

488
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: well again poland he's going to win the state houses

489
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: in Virginia that did not happen.

490
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 6: He praised so many different things, I'll check them off

491
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 6: really quickly. In twenty sixteen, remember that election was over.

492
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 6: Hillary was going to win. We had had the three

493
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 6: debates and then the FBI intervened, and if the FBI

494
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 6: had not intervened, she would have won the election by

495
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 6: five or six points. I mean we know this from

496
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 6: polling data.

497
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: Yeah.

498
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 6: So though James came and the FBI and their intervention

499
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 6: is what handed Trump the presidency and made that fifteen

500
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 6: percent chance happen. Right, And so the polling wasn't wrong

501
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 6: in twenty sixteen. It was that there was a dramatic

502
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 6: thing that happened that changed the election at the end.

503
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,719
Speaker 6: And that's what happens. I mean, elections changed. Things changed

504
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 6: in this last year. As you pointed out, we won

505
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 6: every type of race. It was a ballid initiative, a

506
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 6: Supreme Court special election, we won state legislative special elections,

507
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 6: we won mayoralties, right, we won everything. We won the

508
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 6: state House in Virginia. And I think that this idea

509
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 6: that the traditional fade of the party in power has

510
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 6: not happened now in two elections in twenty twenty two

511
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 6: and in twenty twenty three, is a very dramatic outcome

512
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 6: in our politics. And it's the most important electoral data

513
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 6: that we have, and it's basically not being discussed at all, right,

514
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 6: I mean, it's barely part of our discourse, and it

515
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 6: should be central to our understanding of our politics, far

516
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 6: more than all this bouncing and junkie polling that we're

517
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 6: seeing around. I mean, I've been in the business, right

518
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 6: you win or lose. I've been a onnreal campaigns, winning

519
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 6: an election, winning again and again and again, all across

520
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 6: the country, in all sorts of different races. You'd so

521
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 6: much rather be that party than the other party, right,

522
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 6: and who keep underperforming. And keep in mind, in twenty eighteen,

523
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 6: right once Trump kind of ripped his shirt open and

524
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 6: became mad in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, which you know,

525
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 6: there was some belief he might be kind of a

526
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 6: country club Republican. You know, in twenty sixteen he ripped

527
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 6: his shirt open, he became maga.

528
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: He's lost ever since.

529
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, he's been getting crushed. And in fact, if you

530
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 6: watch what's happening inside the Republican Party right now, the

531
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 6: criticism of Rona Romney McDaniel for continuing to lose election

532
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 6: after election is a major part of their current discourse.

533
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 6: And that discourse is not bleeding into the broader commentariat. Right.

534
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 6: And so let me just say very quickly why I'm

535
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:34,159
Speaker 6: optimistic about twenty twenty four. First, Joe Biden has been

536
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 6: a good president and the country's better off, and we're

537
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 6: going to have a really strong case for reelection. Second,

538
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 6: the Democratic Party is strong and we're winning elections all

539
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,439
Speaker 6: over the country, and it's been heightened since Dobbs in

540
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 6: spring of twenty twenty two. Finally, they have Trump, and

541
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 6: Trump is a far weaker candidate than he was in

542
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 6: twenty twenty. He's more degraded, he's more extreme, he's more dangerous,

543
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 6: he's further away from the electorate, and I think it's

544
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 6: going to The Republicans are taking extraordinary historic risk by

545
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,359
Speaker 6: backing him. I think that what's happened in the commentary

546
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 6: is that we have overly discounted two big factors. One

547
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 6: is our strength, Our continued electoral strength is being sort

548
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 6: of dismissed as being unimportant, and it's obviously hugely important.

549
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 6: The second is that we're overly discounting Trump's historic negatives.

550
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 6: I mean, I wrote it on Twitter today that there

551
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:26,160
Speaker 6: are at least nine potential disqualifiers in twenty twenty four,

552
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 6: and I'm going to try to remember them all. But

553
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 6: first is that a court has determined that he sexually

554
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 6: assaulted a woman in a department store address. A court

555
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 6: is determined that he committed one of the largest financial

556
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 6: frauds in American history. A court has already determined that

557
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 6: he led an insurrection against the United States. He is

558
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 6: singularly responsible for ending ROW. We know that he stole

559
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 6: hundreds of most top secret documents in the country and

560
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 6: allowed other people to access them and lied to the

561
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 6: FBI about it. His relationship with Epstein, I think, is

562
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 6: going to become far more material and reinforce some of

563
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,639
Speaker 6: these other issues. And oh, he took more money as

564
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 6: president from foreign governments than any president in American history,

565
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 6: and his family took two billion dollars from the Saudi government.

566
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 6: I mean, the level of corruption that we're talking about

567
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 6: has no precedent in the history of the United States.

568
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 6: I think that was eight I'm forgetting the ninth. But

569
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 6: any one of those things are going to make it very,

570
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 6: very difficult for people that have already not supported him,

571
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 6: and I've already been voting against MAGA to turn around

572
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,719
Speaker 6: and now embrace him. And so I think as Democrats,

573
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 6: we should be unbelievably optimistic about our chance to have

574
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 6: the kind of election we want to have in twenty

575
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 6: twenty four.

576
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty two, a candidate named Mandela Barnes one

577
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: a very hot Wisconsin Senate primary for the Democrats. He wanted.

578
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 1: I interviewed him twice. He was really great, progressive and

579
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: interesting and smart and some of the never Trump people

580
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 1: in my life. I'm not going to say who said

581
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: he's way to progress it for Wisconsin. He'll never win

582
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: in Wisconsin direct quote. They're racist in Wisconsin. They won't

583
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: vote for someone black. The polls all showed him getting

584
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: creamed eight points, nine points, ten points, eleven points, like

585
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: a bloodbath. He lost by half a point. This is

586
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 1: the danger of polls.

587
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 6: Yet what happened in twenty twenty two and the New

588
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 6: York Times I bushed a peace on Christmas Day in

589
00:29:23,760 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, they went through this. There was not

590
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 6: only the traditional issues we have with polling, but there

591
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 6: was actually manipulation of the polling. In twenty twenty two,

592
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 6: the Republicans launched and op that we still don't know

593
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 6: who ran it, but they flooded the zone with hyper

594
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 6: Republican polls and yeah recipient in the final three weeks

595
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 6: that pushed the polling averages down and including in Wisconsin, right,

596
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 6: And the impact that that had is that it caused

597
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 6: the journalist community to re embrace the concept that we

598
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,959
Speaker 6: were witnessing a red wave when the independent media polling

599
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 6: was not showing any of that happening, and nor was

600
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 6: our own polling as Democrats, by the way, And so

601
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 6: not only did Mendela Barnes probably lose because of this,

602
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 6: but we probably lost the House because House Democrats will

603
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 6: tell you that when the red wave narrative returned, there

604
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 6: was money that had been committed to them by major

605
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 6: donors that went away and went to other places, and

606
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 6: we barely lost the House. And so yes, the polling

607
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 6: game is now part of the information war, right, this

608
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,960
Speaker 6: is part of the daily scrum. And in twenty twenty two,

609
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 6: the Republicans did what they do now and everything is

610
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 6: they cheated, right. They invented fake polling. They put it

611
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 6: through the polling averages. And you know, credit ABC News

612
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 6: for having some accountability because they got rid of Nate

613
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 6: Silver over this, right, and who laundered this false information

614
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 6: that we all knew was false, by the way, I mean,

615
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 6: I called out the first piece I wrote that there

616
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 6: was an operation going on here was on October twenty

617
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 6: third of the election in twenty twenty two. So Democrats

618
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 6: have to get smarter, as we often do, And most

619
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 6: things involving this daily information war is that this stuff

620
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 6: is getting reponized against us, and we've got to be

621
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 6: smarter about it. And you know, I've tried to do

622
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 6: my part in presenting every day on Twitter and on

623
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 6: my substack Opium chronicles. You know, the world that I see,

624
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 6: having been in this now for over thirty years and

625
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 6: been an awesome former TV producer and writer and former

626
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 6: journalists than I was, is that I try to present

627
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 6: to democrats the world that I see, which is often

628
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 6: at odds with the media world that we live in

629
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 6: that's been so influenced and shaped by the right wing

630
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 6: noise machine and by the bullying of the media by

631
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 6: the right that we have to start extricating ourselves in

632
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 6: that and creating our own understandings of them. And that's

633
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 6: part of what I try to do every day.

634
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: Right. You know, I have a lot of pollsters on

635
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: this podcast, and I have posters who I really love,

636
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: who are really smart and who are partisan dems. So

637
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: here's my question for you about the polling. What's happening

638
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 1: here is that most of these polls are still calling

639
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 1: cell phones.

640
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 6: Right, Yes, there are still too many polls that are

641
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 6: being done with antiquated methods. And what it means is

642
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 6: that it's harder and harder for them to reach young

643
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 6: people and Hispanic voters too.

644
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 7: You know.

645
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 6: John Della Volpe from Harvard has a great piece today

646
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 6: and his substack about the problems that we're starting to

647
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 6: see or rise with young voters and Hispanic voters because

648
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 6: there's there's just wild unprecedented periances coming about, you know,

649
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 6: in the polling. But let me give you one other

650
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 6: sort of advice. Right, the more interviews you have, the

651
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 6: more accurate the pulling is. And so if you have

652
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 6: an eight hundred person sample poll or a thousand person

653
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 6: sample pool, you know, traditionally we would not then take

654
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 6: the hundred interviews that somebody does with young people, which

655
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 6: has a margin of era of ten percentage points, not

656
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 6: two or three, and really treat that data seriously. You

657
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 6: could treat the overall poll seriously just in traditional way

658
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 6: the math works at polling, But you didn't then say,

659
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 6: in this poll of one thousand people, the one hundred

660
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 6: interviews we did with Young People's Show X and have

661
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 6: that become meaningful. And so one of the things that's

662
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 6: happening this psych which I think is unique to this

663
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 6: cycle and was not happening as much in twenty twenty two,

664
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 6: as you're starting to see, you know, mainstream news organizations

665
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 6: USA Today last week, the New York Times a few

666
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 6: weeks ago, starting to make judgments about demographic groups based

667
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 6: on very small number of interviews. And it's not right.

668
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 6: It's a violation of what is possible to extract from

669
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 6: a poll. And the USA Today was deeply, deeply guilty

670
00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 6: of this last week, where they actually claimed over two

671
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 6: full days front page stories USA Today two days in

672
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 6: a row leading their website that Donald Trump was winning

673
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 6: young voters and losing older voters. The chance of that

674
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 6: being true is zero, right, there is zero chance, and

675
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 6: they knew that and they ran with those stories anyway.

676
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 6: And so what's happening is the media organizations, I think,

677
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 6: are getting lots of clicks on these more exotic polls

678
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 6: and polls with you know, particularly with pro Republican leans

679
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 6: because the information the Twitter world, social media world, you know,

680
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 6: you get a lot of clicks when you attack Biden, right,

681
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 6: you get a lot of traffic when you go after

682
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 6: by it. And so I would just say about polling

683
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 6: is that I think what's happened is that the people

684
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 6: that make their living off of interprening polls and doing

685
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 6: polling are exaggerating a little bit about what you can

686
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 6: actually read out of a poll. And I'll just give

687
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 6: you two final bits of advice. One is, no poll

688
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 6: can predict anything. All pole can do is tell you

689
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 6: where things are today. They can't even tell you where

690
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,400
Speaker 6: they're going to be tomorrow, let alone eleven months from now.

691
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 6: And so any concept that there is predictive capacity from

692
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 6: a poll is just false, wrong, and it's irrelevant.

693
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 3: Right.

694
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 6: And the second thing is this, you know, being more

695
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 6: reliant on independent polling of large samples, and for the

696
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 6: media organizations to be more honest, as the Washington Post

697
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 6: was when the data comes back a little junkie and

698
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 6: a little weird, which happens, right. And you know, if

699
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 6: those poles were being presented to a candidate, a candidate

700
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 6: would tell them, Hey, I know I've lived in this district.

701
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 6: I know how this district's voted for the last twenty years.

702
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 6: There's no way this data is right. You go fix

703
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 6: it and go do it again and eat it. You

704
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 6: got to go redo the poll instead. What's happening like

705
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 6: with this USA Today's Suffolk poll is last week is

706
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 6: they released a poll that they knew was wrong and

707
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 6: they shouldn't have done that. In journal the media organizations

708
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 6: have to take greater responsibility for making sure the information

709
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 6: they present the voters isn't misinformation, and that's their job,

710
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 6: and they are misinforming with polling.

711
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: Now.

712
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 6: It's a serious problem. And it also means that all

713
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 6: of us who know better, we have to create more

714
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 6: consequence and also create more consequence for them for this right,

715
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 6: there needs to be more calling out, naming, and shaming

716
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,760
Speaker 6: for this kind of behavior because this stuff not only

717
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,839
Speaker 6: can determine, as you pointed out, what happened in twenty

718
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 6: twenty two, but House Republicans may be making judgments about

719
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 6: how they played Biden based on this polling. Foreign governments

720
00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 6: maybe making decisions about whether to invade another county right

721
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 6: based on Biden's approval rating. These are serious matters. The

722
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 6: gun is loaded on this stuff. This isn't sort of

723
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 6: just oh, we got a bunch of numbers. Let's dump

724
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 6: it out and see what happens. This is big stuff

725
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 6: and people got to take greater responsibility for getting it right.

726
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: That's so important. Thank you, thank you, thank you everything

727
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: I wanted to know you answered. I appreciate you well.

728
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 6: Mollie, thank you, And I just went to in by saying, listen, folks,

729
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 6: let's be optimistic. I mean, I really do think we're

730
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 6: going to have a really good election. My view is

731
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 6: that we're just as likely to win this election by five,

732
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 6: six seven points as we are a couple points. Trump

733
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,320
Speaker 6: is in a lot of trouble. He's a weak historic candidate.

734
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 6: We're going to kick his ass. Let's just go do

735
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 6: the work and get this done together.

736
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: Thank you, Simon. John fine Blatt is the president of

737
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: every Town for Gun Safety. Welcome too fast politics, John.

738
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 2: Oh, thanks very much.

739
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 7: Thanks for having me.

740
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: I feel like so many things make me depressed, but

741
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: your organization makes me a little bit hopeful. So talk

742
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: to me about every Town and what you're working on

743
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 1: right now.

744
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think the interesting thing is when

745
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 7: we started every Town ten years ago, we said we

746
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 7: needed to build a counterweight to the NRA. We said

747
00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 7: that for a simple reason, which was, you know, the

748
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 7: NRA really treated Congress and the White House like its

749
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 7: clubhouse and outsize power. Many people say it was the

750
00:37:22,719 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 7: second most powerful lobbing organization in the country. And the

751
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 7: truth is that they at that time could block most

752
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 7: common sense gun laws and interestingly block laws that the

753
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 7: American public, at least according to polling, widely support it.

754
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 7: And so we felt like you had to clear the

755
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 7: brush and you had to really focus on what the

756
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 7: obstacles to making progress were. And there's no question about it,

757
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 7: the NRAs was one of the biggest obstacles.

758
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: I feel like last week was a bad week for

759
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 1: the NRA.

760
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 7: No question about it. In fact, it's not just last week,

761
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,760
Speaker 7: it's really the last couple of years when the onions

762
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 7: start to get peeled on the NRA and we started

763
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 7: to see that they really treated to the NRA like

764
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,360
Speaker 7: a personal piggy bank. And we've all heard the story

765
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 7: about the Brione suits and the yachts and the private plane.

766
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 7: But I think what we don't hear enough about is

767
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,800
Speaker 7: the fact that when we've all forgotten about the extravagances,

768
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 7: there are many families across this country who will never

769
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 7: forget the fact that they lost their children and their

770
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 7: loved ones, and in many way to tie that back

771
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 7: to the NRA, which is blocked at every juncture the

772
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 7: most reasonable gun safety legislation. And I really can't help

773
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:41,320
Speaker 7: but going back to the days after Sandygook, where everybody

774
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 7: in the country thought, well, this is the moment that

775
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 7: we're finally going to have common sense gun legislation. And

776
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 7: it was a pretty modest bill that was in front

777
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 7: of the Senate. It was a background check bill, and

778
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 7: it was, as you might remember, was supported by Pat

779
00:38:55,800 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 7: Toomey or Republicans from Pennsylvania and Joe Mansion from West Virginia.

780
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: Had to me, who's retiring because you can't stand this?

781
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 7: You thought this was the dream team you know of sponsors,

782
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 7: and yet at the last minute, this very modest bill,

783
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 7: witching fact, I'm almost embarrassed to admit, had some giveaways

784
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 7: to the god lobby in it, with Republicans voting against it,

785
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 7: but a handful of Democrats voting against it, which is

786
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 7: just a good reminder of the fact that while Republicans

787
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 7: were opposed to this, Democrats were too, and not because

788
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 7: Democrats weren't sympathetic By and large, but because the NRA

789
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 7: really had disproportionate power at that point. And those days

790
00:39:38,239 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 7: are over. And in many ways those days are over

791
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 7: because we've seen firsthand what the NRA is really about.

792
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 7: But just to give you some sort of sense of it,

793
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 7: in twenty twelve, seventy Democrats running for the House or

794
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 7: Senate received a's from the NRA. You don't receive an

795
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 7: A without filling out a questionnaire today zero. And so

796
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 7: you can see how things have changed so dramatically. And

797
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 7: as you might remember, a year ago or so, we

798
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 7: finally passed a bipartisan bill in the Senate. It was

799
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 7: the first really gun safety bill to be passed in

800
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 7: twenty seven years, and it had every Democrat on it,

801
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 7: unlike the days after Sandy Cook. And it had fifteen

802
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 7: Republicans on it, including Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Ram and

803
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 7: John Cornan, who was the actual lead Republican negotiator. So

804
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 7: the political calculus has changed significantly on this issue. The

805
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 7: NRA's letter grades, which used to be a king and

806
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 7: queen maker, now are a little bit more like a

807
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 7: scarlet letter. And the NRA itself is just a shadow

808
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:38,919
Speaker 7: of its former self.

809
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: I think.

810
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 7: I think the New York Times last week called it

811
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 7: a ghost ship, which I thought was very descriptive. But

812
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 7: when you look at almost any measure, when you look

813
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 7: at the money they spend on lobbying and politics, it's

814
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 7: down like seventy five percent. If you look at their

815
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 7: membership dues, I think they're down forty percent. Spending one

816
00:40:56,880 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 7: and five dollars on legal fees to defend them in court.

817
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 7: They're in very bad shape, there's no question about it.

818
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 7: And interestingly, you have to ask the question, well, does

819
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 7: that translate to a loss of political power? And I

820
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:16,719
Speaker 7: think the most recent interesting example is the elections in Virginia.

821
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 7: It's November because that's their home, that's where their headquarters are,

822
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 7: and from a reputational point of view, if nothing else,

823
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 7: Virginia is very important to them. And every town outspent

824
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 7: them ten to one. And it wasn't just that we

825
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 7: outspent them. We actually denied them what they were looking for,

826
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 7: which was control of both houses of the legislature so

827
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 7: that they could actually roll back the gun safety legislation

828
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 7: that had been passed there. And so they're broke and

829
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 7: they're down on their influence.

830
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's such an interesting and also well deserved position

831
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: for them to be in. The thing that I'm surprise

832
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 1: is the pulling on this issue, like people don't actually

833
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: want to live this way, but we're stuck here. Tell

834
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: me how we're not actually stuck here. Explain to me

835
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: where we are.

836
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 7: It's a good point you raised, because this was always

837
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 7: the conundrum that we had to deal with ten years

838
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 7: ago when we started, which is, you know, how can

839
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,760
Speaker 7: after Sandy Hook you lose on a background check bill

840
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 7: when you pull it and you see that eighty five

841
00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:21,879
Speaker 7: percent of Americans support background checks. I mean, I think

842
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 7: that our lowest number, which was somewhere I think it

843
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 7: was in Wyoming, was seventy two percent approval. And I

844
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 7: think because the NRA in those days had a real

845
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 7: stranglehold on elected officials, and it was an interesting example

846
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 7: of the fact that and this isn't the only time

847
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 7: we've ever seen this where elected officials really aren't representing

848
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 7: their constituents. And so that's why we thought it was

849
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 7: so important to really shine a very harsh spotlight on

850
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 7: the NRA and as I say, really expose what they're about,

851
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 7: which is actually not a gun rights organization. Certainly not

852
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 7: a gun safety organization, which they proclaimed in many years

853
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 7: past to be. But they are a personal piggyback, and

854
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,479
Speaker 7: that's what they are. And I think that in many

855
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:14,439
Speaker 7: ways that harsh spotlight has helped significantly to change how

856
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 7: people see the issue of gun safety and most importantly,

857
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:21,640
Speaker 7: how politicians do. And so I gave you the example

858
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 7: of Virginia, but I can give you lots more examples.

859
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 7: In twenty sixteen, the NRA was probably Trump's largest outside donor.

860
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,280
Speaker 7: They put thirty million dollars into his race. By twenty twenty,

861
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 7: they could only spend half of that on politics because

862
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 7: they were harhaching money and they only made three bets.

863
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 7: One was Trump and the other two were the two

864
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:47,479
Speaker 7: Georgia runoffs, and obviously they lost both. But so much

865
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 7: has changed. Twenty one states now have universal background checks,

866
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 7: twenty one states have red flag laws. I think thirty

867
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 7: some states have laws barring domestic abusers for being able

868
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 7: to buy guns. And so what we've seen is at

869
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 7: the state level, we've made a significant amount of progress.

870
00:44:04,719 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 7: And then just about a year ago that progress extended

871
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 7: to the US Congress. And the truth is that the

872
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 7: NRA opposed the bipartisan build that was passed a year

873
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 7: plus ago. But Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham and John

874
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 7: Cornyan didn't care anymore.

875
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 1: They don't have the power they used to, right, So

876
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 1: there's the Raheemy case. This Supreme Court is pretty antagonistic

877
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: to any kind of you know, they feel that if

878
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 1: the Framers had muskets, then everyone else should have, and

879
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: then everyone in the world should have AR fifteens.

880
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 7: It's quite a leap.

881
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's quite a leap. But it's called but I

882
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 1: don't know if you know this. It's called textualism. And

883
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 1: so I'm curious where you are now. They seem to

884
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: be backtracking a little bit, but again, we never know

885
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: of this court.

886
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 7: The decision that Judge Thomas wrote has basically just created

887
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 7: so much chaos in the federal courts.

888
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 1: That's the Bruin case we're talking about. The idea was

889
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: that New York State was not allowed to make the

890
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:09,760
Speaker 1: kind of gun laws it wanted.

891
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 7: Yeah, basically, what it required, as you said, was in

892
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 7: historical underpinning or historical context for laws. And if a

893
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 7: judge couldn't find some sort of historical precedent for the law,

894
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:26,319
Speaker 7: then the law actually violated the Second Amendment. But say

895
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 7: it created just chaos. I mean, you've got judges basically saying,

896
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 7: can I hire an historian. I'm a judge, not a historian.

897
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 7: I don't know what the laws were in England before

898
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 7: this country was founded. I don't know what the lalls were,

899
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 7: you know, in the late sixteen hundreds or the early

900
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 7: seventeen hundreds. And so you've got real chaos in the

901
00:45:46,560 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 7: federal courts with judges, you know, in one part of

902
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 7: the country deciding one way another part in the other way.

903
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,960
Speaker 7: And why that is so damaging is because, you know,

904
00:45:56,120 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 7: courts are supposed to actually provide predictables. That's why precedent

905
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 7: is so important from our courts. But in fact, what

906
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 7: we've got is just unpredictability. But the case that you

907
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 7: are actually referring to, this most recent case that the

908
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 7: Supreme Court heard arguments, the Rahemi case, is one where

909
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 7: you've sort of at the far outreaches where the challenge was,

910
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 7: could you actually bar a domestic abuser from owning guns?

911
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 7: And this was a Fifth Circuit case with a judges

912
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 7: basically saying, well, there's no historical precedent for such a bar,

913
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 7: which is crazy because you know, what's historical precedent that

914
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 7: women were property, not even human beings, right, and so

915
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 7: there was no question about it. When this case was

916
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 7: argued before the court, you had I don't want to

917
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 7: be somebody who's a prognosticator of Supreme Court decisions, but

918
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 7: clearly there was a lot of sympathy across the bench

919
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 7: for the idea that, of course you would bar a

920
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 7: domestic abuser from owning gun. I mean, what could be

921
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 7: more dangerous? And so my hope is that we'll start

922
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 7: to resolve what the Brewin decision really meant, because right

923
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 7: now nobody really in the judiciary knows what it means,

924
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 7: and they're sort of grappling with it.

925
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is such an incredibly crazy time right now.

926
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,240
Speaker 1: So let's talk about this online hub dedicated to holding

927
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 1: the gun industry accountable. This is one of the really

928
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 1: interesting things. The NRA has worked really hard on protecting

929
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 1: gun manufacturers, right. That's sort of which makes sense because

930
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 1: corporations are people.

931
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 7: It's really interesting to me because I think the RA

932
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 7: and this was in their sort of height of their power.

933
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 7: I think they learned some things, probably from other fights

934
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 7: about industry, whether it be tobacco or auto. But what

935
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 7: they did was they persuaded Congress to bar research. Can

936
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 7: you imagine where we would be with tobacco if we

937
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 7: didn't have medical research. They convinced Congress to give the

938
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 7: industry blanket civil immunity. I mean, where would Ralph Nader

939
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:11,240
Speaker 7: be if the auto industry had blanket civil immunity, meaning

940
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 7: that you couldn't actually sue them. And so what they

941
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,600
Speaker 7: did was they built sort of a fortress around the

942
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 7: industry because in many ways, really what is the NRA.

943
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 7: It's really it represents the industry, it's their protector. And

944
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 7: so it used Congress to really build this sort of

945
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 7: impenetrable fortress around the industry, and it sort of took

946
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 7: away some of the tools that are normally used in

947
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 7: fights against corporate malfeasans such as research very important, such

948
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 7: as the ability to sue very important. Now we've been

949
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 7: able to do some very creative workarounds around that blanket

950
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 7: civil immunity and actually have been quite successful very recently

951
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 7: in suing the industry, and there are a number of

952
00:48:56,840 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 7: cases that have given substantial award to plaintiffs. But more importantly,

953
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 7: many of the settlements that we've reached have actually changed

954
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 7: the industry's practices, for instance, requiring online sellers of ammunition

955
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:18,000
Speaker 7: to embed an age verification system in their platform, or

956
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:24,320
Speaker 7: barring ghost gun sellers from selling in the state of California,

957
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 7: or shutting down manufacturers and dealers who were responsible for

958
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 7: disproportionate number of what we call crime guns, and those

959
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 7: are guns that are recovered at crime scenes. But there's

960
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 7: much more to be done in this area. But you've

961
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 7: got to bring the industry to the table. And I

962
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 7: think the only way you're going to bring the industry

963
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:49,439
Speaker 7: the table is by actually holding them accounta bill in court.

964
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 7: But just think of some of the things that the

965
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,959
Speaker 7: industry could do. What if you had a palm print

966
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:58,399
Speaker 7: recognition gun that could only be fired by the rightful owner. Well,

967
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 7: we wouldn't be waking up in the mor and reading about,

968
00:50:01,080 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 7: you know, a four year old playing hide and go

969
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 7: seek and finding their parents' gun in the sweater drawer

970
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 7: and accidentally killing their sybil hurting themselves, or we wouldn't

971
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 7: be reading about which sadly we are reading a lot

972
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:18,520
Speaker 7: about teenage suicide. Where did team you know get their guns?

973
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 7: They usually get them from their parents or their relatives

974
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 7: who have negligently stored them. Or here's something that most

975
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 7: people don't realize. In fact, there was a point where

976
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 7: I didn't realize this, which is when you ask, well,

977
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 7: how do guns get into the black market? One of

978
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 7: the most reliable ways is through home burglaries and car

979
00:50:35,360 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 7: break ins. Well, those guns would have no economic currency

980
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 7: in the black market if they could only be fired

981
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,279
Speaker 7: by their rightful owner. I mean there are other even

982
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 7: simpler things like you do when you read, you know,

983
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 7: these stories of a four year old, you know, firing

984
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 7: a gun. You think like, well, how can a four

985
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 7: year old actually pull back the trigger of a gun. Well,

986
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 7: it's because of the way it's weighted. But you know,

987
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 7: couldn't the gun in industry rewait the trigger?

988
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 1: So it's harder to paul. Yeah, So this database that

989
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 1: you guys are, that you guys have, right, you'll be

990
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 1: able to sort of point to I mean, this is

991
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: like a gun mocker institute a little bit, right that

992
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:19,759
Speaker 1: you give the evidence to people to see just what

993
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:20,879
Speaker 1: the numbers are. Right.

994
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that the gun industries, I hate to

995
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,759
Speaker 7: say it this way, but I'm going to the gun

996
00:51:25,800 --> 00:51:28,359
Speaker 7: industry has gotten away with murder, and somehow, you know,

997
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 7: nobody really puts the gun industry front in the center.

998
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, why not.

999
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 7: I think it's because there have been so many protections

1000
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 7: built around them, truthfully, But you know, think about when

1001
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 7: a police department does a press conference, you know, and

1002
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:43,879
Speaker 7: they lay out the guns that they recovered, and they

1003
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:47,359
Speaker 7: talk about actually the perhaps the caliber of the gun,

1004
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 7: but they never talk about who made the gun. So

1005
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:53,879
Speaker 7: it's a very simple thing about naming the gun that's

1006
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 7: so important and so truthfully, what we are trying to

1007
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 7: do is use some of the same tax we use

1008
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 7: with the NRA by shining a harsh spotlight, by feeding

1009
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 7: the facts to the public. We're trying to do that

1010
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 7: about the gun industry as well, because the truth is

1011
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,959
Speaker 7: they are getting away with murder. It has been hard

1012
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 7: to hold them accountable. But times up.

1013
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think we should end there. Thanks so much, John, Thank.

1014
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:19,279
Speaker 7: You very much.

1015
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: A moment oct Jesse Cannon.

1016
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 5: Molly, John Fast. I have to tell you this story

1017
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 5: really sent me into a rage that my usual numbness

1018
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 5: does not allow. But I am pretty angry about this

1019
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 5: situation here at the border.

1020
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 1: Tony.

1021
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 5: What you're seeing here.

1022
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:46,640
Speaker 1: So Greg Abbott, who is like the Henry Kissinger of Texas,

1023
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 1: has you know, really into trying to make it so

1024
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 1: he actually said something this weekend about how he does

1025
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 1: everything but shoot the migrants.

1026
00:52:57,040 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 4: We are using every tour that can be use, from

1027
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 4: building a border wall, to building these border barriers, to.

1028
00:53:06,200 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 8: Passing this law that I signed that led to another

1029
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 8: lawsuit by the Biden administration where I signed a law

1030
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 8: making it illegal for somebody to enter Texas from another

1031
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 8: country and they're subject to arrest and.

1032
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 4: Subject to deportation. And so we are deploying every tool

1033
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,200
Speaker 4: and strategy that we possibly can. The only thing that

1034
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 4: we're not doing is we're not shooting people who come

1035
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 4: across the border, because of course the Bide administration with

1036
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 4: charges with murder.

1037
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 1: So basically what happened here is that three migrants were drowning,

1038
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 1: and it looks like and again we don't totally know yet,

1039
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 1: but that the Texas military would not allow border agents

1040
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 1: to come in and try to save them. So I'm

1041
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: sure there's going to be a lot of investigation here.

1042
00:53:56,760 --> 00:54:00,239
Speaker 1: They have at many points, the people at the state

1043
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 1: level in Texas have done things to hurt these people

1044
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 1: but this might be the closest they've gotten to really

1045
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 1: actively being involved in killing people we don't know yet,

1046
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 1: but really just one of the worst things I've ever seen.

1047
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: And for that Greg Abbott is yet again the creator

1048
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:27,359
Speaker 1: of our terrible moment of buckery. That's it for this

1049
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 1: episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, and

1050
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes sense

1051
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,280
Speaker 1: of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard,

1052
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

1053
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:42,640
Speaker 1: And again, thanks for listening.