WEBVTT - Trump Aims a ‘Wrecking Ball’ at Climate Policy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business

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<v Speaker 1>Week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you

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<v Speaker 1>America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and

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<v Speaker 1>tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>President elect Donald Trump has been crystal clear his second

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<v Speaker 2>term will be an assault on climate policy. He just

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<v Speaker 2>released a statement that said that he's thrilled to announce

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<v Speaker 2>Doug Bergham, the Governor of North Dakota, is joining the

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<v Speaker 2>administration as bost Secretary of the Interior and as chairman

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<v Speaker 2>of the newly formed National Energy Council. It'll consist of

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<v Speaker 2>all departments and agencies involved in permitting production, generation, distribution, regulation,

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<v Speaker 2>transportation of all forms of American energy. The statement continues

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<v Speaker 2>on to say that the radical lefts war on American

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<v Speaker 2>energy has hurt our allies by forcing them to buy

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<v Speaker 2>from our adverse series, who in turn use those profits

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<v Speaker 2>to fund wars and terror. Energy dominance will allow us

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<v Speaker 2>to sell energy to our friends. For more on what

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<v Speaker 2>the climate agenda looks like or doesn't look like under

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<v Speaker 2>the President elect, and that new administration that comes in

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<v Speaker 2>on January twentieth. We're joined by Lesli Kaufman. She's Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Green climate change reporter and for Bloomberg Business Week. She

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<v Speaker 2>writes about the President elect aiming a wrecking ball at

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<v Speaker 2>Climate Policey check out her story on the Bloomberg terminal

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<v Speaker 2>and at Bloomberg dot com slash business Week. Leslie joins

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<v Speaker 2>us from New York City. Leslie to bring up that

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<v Speaker 2>statement which he might not have even seen yet because

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<v Speaker 2>it just came out from the former president, but from

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<v Speaker 2>the President elect and former president. He says that America

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<v Speaker 2>is blessed with vast amounts of liquid gold and other

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<v Speaker 2>valuable minerals and resources right before our feet. We're going

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<v Speaker 2>to drill, baby, drill, and expand all forms of energy

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<v Speaker 2>production to grow our economy and create good paying jobs.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to take a step back and sort of

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<v Speaker 2>understand what the energy industry has looked like over the

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<v Speaker 2>last four years so we can better understand what the

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<v Speaker 2>President elect is saying right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Right Well, the United States has not stepped back exactly

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<v Speaker 3>from oil production. We've been the number one oil exporter

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<v Speaker 3>for this oil exporter for six years. That includes both

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump and the Biden administration, So we haven't exactly

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<v Speaker 3>walked away from that, but Biden has been trying to

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<v Speaker 3>nudge the US towards a much greener economy, an economy

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<v Speaker 3>that doesn't rely so much on fossil fuels. He had,

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<v Speaker 3>of course, the Inflation Reduction Act, which put billions of

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<v Speaker 3>dollars towards new forms of energy. And the question now

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<v Speaker 3>is what happens under Trump.

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<v Speaker 4>Let's talk more about that, because one of his pledges

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<v Speaker 4>on day one has specifically been to end offshore When

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<v Speaker 4>when you're thinking about more of those energy side of

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<v Speaker 4>things that you're mentioning, would he actually be able to

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<v Speaker 4>do that as quickly as he claims that he could

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<v Speaker 4>end it when he comes into office.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, this is a more complicated question. There's some pieces

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<v Speaker 3>of that. The first is that the IRA some of

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<v Speaker 3>that money has already gone out, so some of that

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<v Speaker 3>is committed.

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<v Speaker 5>He could.

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<v Speaker 3>Go after the tax credits that promote wind in solar.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he will have a tough time doing that.

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<v Speaker 3>Why because a lot of the beneficiaries of those tax

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<v Speaker 3>credits are in red states and a group of congressmen

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<v Speaker 3>has already written a note to Mike Johnson saying, please

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<v Speaker 3>don't get rid of those tax subsidies. We'd like those.

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<v Speaker 3>He's made a special point about wind. He does hate wind.

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<v Speaker 3>I am sure there are all sorts of things in

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<v Speaker 3>permitting and other things that could make it difficult for

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<v Speaker 3>people who are doing wind generation.

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<v Speaker 2>However, okay, talk a little bit about that, because there

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<v Speaker 2>is there's some real politics involved in this, as you mentioned.

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of the beneficiaries of the Reduction Act, as

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<v Speaker 2>you just said, and you write in the piece as well,

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<v Speaker 2>are in red states and have Republican members of Congress.

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<v Speaker 2>So how do you dismantle something that is actually popular

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<v Speaker 2>even if those politicians didn't approve it. And you have

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<v Speaker 2>some examples of politicians sort of lotting the money that's

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<v Speaker 2>coming to this even after not voting for it.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, they certainly have gone after it and gotten as

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<v Speaker 3>much as they can. This includes everything from solar and

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<v Speaker 3>wind farms, but also battery manufacturers and things like evs

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<v Speaker 3>and ev factories. All of those are things that a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of people will believe will be the economy of

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<v Speaker 3>the future, and they'd like China not to dominate as

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<v Speaker 3>much as it already does. So this has also brought

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of jobs to the US and certainly billions

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<v Speaker 3>in investment. So will he take on the tax credits directly,

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<v Speaker 3>Maybe not, But there are still lots of things he

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<v Speaker 3>can do to adjust the IRA to make it much

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<v Speaker 3>more fossil fuel friendly. For instance, we give all sorts

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<v Speaker 3>of grants for innovation, they could move that away from

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<v Speaker 3>clean energy more towards things that fossil fuel companies like,

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<v Speaker 3>like carbon capture, for example, hydrogen things that come from

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<v Speaker 3>oil and fossil fuel products. This would give money back

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<v Speaker 3>to oil companies or allow them to continue to produce

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<v Speaker 3>fossil fuel emissions and maybe have it carbon captured later.

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<v Speaker 3>So those are some of the things that he can

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<v Speaker 3>do to adjust the law to make it more friendly

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<v Speaker 3>to his contributors and to the oil industry.

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<v Speaker 2>Does the oil industry actually want to be drilling more

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<v Speaker 2>right now in the US given where oil prices are

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<v Speaker 2>and the demand concerns out of China that sent oil

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<v Speaker 2>prices lower this week, right, Well.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's an interesting question. I mean, there were leases

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<v Speaker 3>that went up for sale under Trump that no one took.

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<v Speaker 3>Its oil is very sensitive to things beyond the US market,

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<v Speaker 3>and so it'll be very interesting to see the head

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<v Speaker 3>of Exon is now on the record saying he thinks

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<v Speaker 3>the IRA is a good thing. So of course, like

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<v Speaker 3>I said, there's plenty of goodies in there for fossil

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<v Speaker 3>fuel companies too, so they don't exactly want to see

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<v Speaker 3>that wiped off the boards either.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, speaking of the fossil fuel industry, Donald Trump has

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<v Speaker 4>promised to increase oil and gas production, even though the

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<v Speaker 4>US already set records. To your point that you were

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<v Speaker 4>mentioning earlier at the start of this, and especially if

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<v Speaker 4>you think about those records under the Biden administration, what

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<v Speaker 4>do you think a new Trump administration could do to

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<v Speaker 4>increase it even more than it already has.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, some of the things they're talking about is making

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<v Speaker 3>more public lands available for leasing. They could loosen up

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<v Speaker 3>water standards and things like that, which would make it

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<v Speaker 3>easier to get permitting. And in particular, permitting has been

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<v Speaker 3>a problem for the United States. We just have to

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<v Speaker 3>acknowledge that across all our energies systems. I think a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of people in renewable energy have been so frustrated

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<v Speaker 3>with the permitting process also nuclear. One hope for green

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<v Speaker 3>greenies is that the Trump administration will continue nuclear that

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<v Speaker 3>they will not be hostile to it because that has

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<v Speaker 3>been a bar bipartisan issue. And if they can loosen

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<v Speaker 3>up some of the permitting, that might speed everyone's energy capabilities.

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<v Speaker 3>Of course, you produce the capabilities.

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<v Speaker 4>Right And of course when we bring up energy oil

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<v Speaker 4>and gas as well as gas production, people are going

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<v Speaker 4>to think back obviously to their pocketbooks as well as

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<v Speaker 4>what's happening with gas prices. So when you think about

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<v Speaker 4>all these different kind of proposals, could any of this

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<v Speaker 4>lead to lower energy costs for Americans?

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<v Speaker 3>Sometimes energy costs, you know, it's complicated. Obviously, more coming

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<v Speaker 3>onto the grid is good. The huge and vestments in solar,

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<v Speaker 3>for instance, are paying off. Now solar is now half

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<v Speaker 3>the price of natural gas because we've put a huge

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<v Speaker 3>incentive into building it. So yes, I do think that

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<v Speaker 3>proper incentives can lead to cheaper prices for Americans. But

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<v Speaker 3>it's complicated. It has to do with the demand, it

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<v Speaker 3>has to do with you know, we all saw oil

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<v Speaker 3>prices shoot up. That had to do with COVID and

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<v Speaker 3>the sudden shutting things down and then having to revamp

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<v Speaker 3>things up just as there were demands. As you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there are wars in the Middle East, There's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of things that are outside the control of the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Where does this leave renewables in general? Leslie, because these

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<v Speaker 2>projects are already broken ground across the country, indeed, some

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<v Speaker 2>in red states or at least in more conservative districts.

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<v Speaker 2>I've been by some new ones in conservative parts of

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<v Speaker 2>New York State, for example, where they've already broken ground.

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<v Speaker 2>Where does it leave projects that could be in limbo?

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<v Speaker 5>I think that.

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<v Speaker 3>There is great hope that there is enough momentum that

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<v Speaker 3>those will just keep going, that their goal will not

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<v Speaker 3>be to dislodge things that are already occurring, because the

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<v Speaker 3>contracts are signed and the money is moved, and is

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<v Speaker 3>probably not going to be their goal. The question is

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<v Speaker 3>what does it mean for future innovation down the line?

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<v Speaker 3>What does it mean for new projects? There's been a

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<v Speaker 3>huge battle in this nation of natural gas versus renewables.

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<v Speaker 3>This could tip the hand towards natural gas even further.

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<v Speaker 4>What about when it comes to electric vehicles? How much

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<v Speaker 4>would a Trump administration change what's already in mind for

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<v Speaker 4>EV production and ownership When you're thinking about the green

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<v Speaker 4>aspect side of it.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, well, so EV is a whole complicated list of

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<v Speaker 3>things you saw that they've already said that they will

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<v Speaker 3>probably go after the tax credit. This is despite the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that Elon Musk has been a huge supporter. So

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<v Speaker 3>that's seven five hundred dollars. There've been rumors outside of

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<v Speaker 3>Washington that that's going to be in the first tax package.

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<v Speaker 3>They'd like to go after that, So that could certainly

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<v Speaker 3>affect sales in the short run. But then there's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of questions about highways. Are you going to push

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<v Speaker 3>to have the infrastructure for EVS there? That does not

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<v Speaker 3>seem like that would be a huge priority for the

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration. So I do think that they will. They

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<v Speaker 3>will slow EVS at least for a while.

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<v Speaker 2>Is there any optimism from folks you talk to about

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<v Speaker 2>Elon Musk? Being close to the president, he understands the

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<v Speaker 2>challenges the climate faces. He's talked a lot about renewable energy.

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<v Speaker 2>He is a fan of renewable energy.

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<v Speaker 3>He is a fan of renewable energy, and Republicans themselves

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<v Speaker 3>used to be a fan of all kinds of energy.

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<v Speaker 3>That was one of their benefits. They used to say,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not against renewables, I'm just for everything. It's unclear

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<v Speaker 3>that Trump feels that way. I think that there's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of wait and see, a lot of hope placed

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<v Speaker 3>on certain people, and I think we have to say

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<v Speaker 3>there's just a big question mark about what they'll do.

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<v Speaker 3>We can say, looking back at the last Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>that it was fairly hostile. That particularly when you looked

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<v Speaker 3>at the kind of regulations they put in place, or

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<v Speaker 3>more importantly, the regulations they knocked out. They were not

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<v Speaker 3>particularly friendly.

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<v Speaker 5>That said.

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<v Speaker 3>He said he'd come in and be very friendly to coal,

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<v Speaker 3>but Cole continued to decline under his administration. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>know if you recall his first months that brought miners

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<v Speaker 3>into interior. He was going to help Cole grow. He

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<v Speaker 3>did not.

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<v Speaker 2>Lesli Kaufman, Bloomberg Green Climate Change reporter. Check out her

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<v Speaker 2>story in a Bloomberg Business Week and if you never

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<v Speaker 2>Well, so much happening right now that the c suite

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<v Speaker 2>we know is focused on companies all over the country

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<v Speaker 2>and indeed all over the world. A new administration coming

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<v Speaker 2>in January, figuring out what tariffs and trade will look like,

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<v Speaker 2>trying to parse through those names that have been announced

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<v Speaker 2>as the transition team makes its way to Washington. We

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<v Speaker 2>talked a lot about that last week, perhaps though, about

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<v Speaker 2>ESG and sustainability initiatives for companies, how those look under

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<v Speaker 2>the next administration, especially one that denies climate change even exists.

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<v Speaker 2>Nina Tretman is a Bloomberg News senior editor who writes

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<v Speaker 2>the weekly CFO Briefing newsletter. You can sign up for

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<v Speaker 2>that at Bloomberg dot com slash CFO Briefing. She joins

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<v Speaker 2>us here in the Bloomberg BusinessWeek Studio. We're also joined

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<v Speaker 2>right now by Deanna Strabel, the CEO and formerly CFO

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<v Speaker 2>of Principal Financial Group. She joins us from Iowa. Nina,

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<v Speaker 2>I want to start with you and just get an

0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.200
<v Speaker 2>understanding from you about how you're thinking about the CFO

0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.200
<v Speaker 2>Briefing newsletter this week ahead of cop Yeah.

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:02.559
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, thank you.

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.199
<v Speaker 6>Very much for having me. Yeah, one thing that we'll

0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.440
<v Speaker 6>look at in the upcoming edition is specifically this how

0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.520
<v Speaker 6>do companies navigate this that we have COP twenty nine,

0:13:11.520 --> 0:13:14.520
<v Speaker 6>Who's what's is going on in Azerbaijan. We also have

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 6>the new administration getting ready here in the US, and

0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:21.960
<v Speaker 6>of course the contrast couldn't be starker, and companies are

0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:24.080
<v Speaker 6>in this in the middle ground there sort of trying

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 6>to navigate climate change which increasingly we all feel, and

0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:31.439
<v Speaker 6>the realities of this new administration, and so we are

0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:35.200
<v Speaker 6>speaking to CFOs about this in the new upcoming edition

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.559
<v Speaker 6>of the CFO Briefing. We're talking to them about sort

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.200
<v Speaker 6>of how do they figure out new reporting requirements. There's

0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.320
<v Speaker 6>new regulation taking place in the EU, for example, on that.

0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:46.079
<v Speaker 6>We're also talking to them about net zero and why

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 6>those goals are trickier to achieve then you might think.

0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 6>And then also we're talking to them about sustainability financing

0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.439
<v Speaker 6>and the fact that sort of as debt markets around

0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 6>the world have been pretty busy this year, we've also

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:03.880
<v Speaker 6>seen an increase in that interestingly of the America so

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:09.360
<v Speaker 6>sort of flagging behind Europe and Asia and Pacific regions there. So, yeah,

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.559
<v Speaker 6>what are we bring in Deana? Thanks for joining us again.

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.320
<v Speaker 6>It was great to talk earlier this week. Could you

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.400
<v Speaker 6>talk a little bit to us about how Principal is

0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 6>navigating that challenge that I just described earlier.

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, thank you so much, and it's great to be

0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:25.600
<v Speaker 5>with you today.

0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:28.040
<v Speaker 7>You know, one of the things is I was just

0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 7>announced earlier this week as moving from the CFO position

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:36.840
<v Speaker 7>to our CEO elect position, with that taking over in

0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 7>early twenty twenty five. For those of you that don't know,

0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:44.160
<v Speaker 7>Principle the global financial services company across retirement, asset management,

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:48.080
<v Speaker 7>and workplace benefits, but specifically you talked about just the

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 7>time that we're in regarding both just the election and

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.560
<v Speaker 7>some of the uncertainty around that, as well as the

0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:57.880
<v Speaker 7>ESG and the sustainability journey. I think the good news

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.640
<v Speaker 7>on both front is, you know, we have navigated for

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.520
<v Speaker 7>one hundred and forty five years over a lot of

0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 7>different regimes, a lot of different agendas regarding these topics,

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 7>and ultimately we come back to doing what we think

0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:15.239
<v Speaker 7>is right for our clients and right for our customers

0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 7>and employees, and ultimately feel that in doing that, we'll

0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:24.160
<v Speaker 7>navigate these uncertain waters in a very effective way, but

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 7>would love to go deeper if you want to dive

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:28.280
<v Speaker 7>a little deeper into those items.

0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, definitely do that, Dana, because I know that Principle

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.720
<v Speaker 4>sold its for sustainability bond back in twenty twenty one,

0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 4>and you were considering potentially doing so again if any

0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:41.160
<v Speaker 4>sort of good opportunities arise. So talk more about while

0:15:41.320 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 4>you feel this is the right thing to do, and

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.480
<v Speaker 4>what opportunities you might see again to jump back in.

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, we did, as you mentioned, issue our first sustainable

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:54.200
<v Speaker 7>bond a few years ago, and ultimately it is still

0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 7>something that we assess whenever we're facing an opportunity where

0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:02.360
<v Speaker 7>we need to refinance a current debt or issue a

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 7>new one. And so again we do have a debt

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:09.560
<v Speaker 7>that matures in twenty twenty five. We've made no decisions

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.560
<v Speaker 7>whether we will reissue from a sustainability perspective or not,

0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 7>but it is one thing that we'll assess, and really

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 7>what comes into it is thinking about obviously economics, but

0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:25.840
<v Speaker 7>also investor demand and ultimately how that fits into the

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:27.720
<v Speaker 7>landscape of when we are issuing.

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 5>And so more to come on that, but we are.

0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:34.160
<v Speaker 7>Very pleased with our issuance that we have had great

0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:37.960
<v Speaker 7>client interest in that, our investor interest in that, and

0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.280
<v Speaker 7>we'll continue to assess that as we move forward.

0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 6>One follow up for me. You talked about your clients

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 6>and what's right for your clients. What are you hearing

0:16:46.680 --> 0:16:49.760
<v Speaker 6>from clients sort of thinking about us clients but also

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 6>those in Europe, like, where do they stand on this topic?

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 7>I think you know, as I mentioned earlier, we are

0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.480
<v Speaker 7>an asset manager and we have clients and customers around

0:16:59.520 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 7>the globe. I think the first thing I would say

0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:06.639
<v Speaker 7>is every climate client is different. You know, there is

0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:12.120
<v Speaker 7>some regional geographic differences. Obviously sustainability in ESG has been

0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:16.120
<v Speaker 7>something much higher on the priority of the European clients

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 7>and investors, But even within an any geography, there are

0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:24.720
<v Speaker 7>clients that ultimately have either a higher or a lower.

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:25.560
<v Speaker 5>Sensitivity to that.

0:17:25.720 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 7>And so ultimately we're going to really take seriously our

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 7>fiduciary responsibility to our clients and acting in their best

0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 7>interest comes first and foremost. And so if you look

0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:42.200
<v Speaker 7>across our asset management solutions, we have a wide range

0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:47.280
<v Speaker 7>of choice there that can really resonate with that different

0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:49.800
<v Speaker 7>landscape that we see amongst our client base.

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.960
<v Speaker 2>Now is demand right now for that type of asset

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 2>or that type of offering, Deana, because it seems at

0:17:56.680 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 2>least many Americans that's not necessarily on their radar right now,

0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.280
<v Speaker 2>given what we saw at the polls last week. It's

0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:04.840
<v Speaker 2>not like this is twenty twenty one and this is

0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:06.080
<v Speaker 2>top of mind for a lot of people.

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.200
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, I would agree with that, but I don't think

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:13.080
<v Speaker 7>it's a broad base that there's no one in the

0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:16.680
<v Speaker 7>US that is interested in that. And so again I

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.399
<v Speaker 7>just come back to ultimately, we listen to the clients

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 7>and we're able to meet their needs, whether that's high

0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:27.080
<v Speaker 7>on their priority list or lower. But I do think

0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:31.160
<v Speaker 7>given I do agree with really the backdrop of what

0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:35.320
<v Speaker 7>you said, and ultimately it's a much higher interest when

0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.520
<v Speaker 7>we talk to clients outside of the US than I

0:18:38.560 --> 0:18:40.639
<v Speaker 7>would say it is here in the US.

0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:42.919
<v Speaker 4>I want to switch gears quickly because we only have

0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.080
<v Speaker 4>a little under two minutes left here. But when you

0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.679
<v Speaker 4>take over the helm of CEO of Principal on January seventh,

0:18:48.680 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 4>you will be the first CEO to lead at the firm.

0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:52.840
<v Speaker 4>What do you think needs to be done to get

0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 4>more females at the head of Fortune five hundred companies.

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:00.359
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so you are correct.

0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:03.200
<v Speaker 7>I am proud to join the small but growing ranks

0:19:03.200 --> 0:19:06.840
<v Speaker 7>of female CEOs, particularly when you look at the financial

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 7>services sector.

0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:10.760
<v Speaker 5>I think if you look at my path, it's been

0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 5>not linear.

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:16.119
<v Speaker 7>I started. I'm an actuary by background. Then I spent

0:19:16.160 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 7>twenty years actually running P and L leadership. Then I

0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:23.320
<v Speaker 7>moved in to the chief financial officer role, and then

0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.639
<v Speaker 7>ultimately I'll be transitioning into this role in January.

0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:29.760
<v Speaker 5>And I do think it's a journey, right. It is

0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 5>continuing to.

0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:35.000
<v Speaker 7>Give women the opportunity to have a seat at the table.

0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.760
<v Speaker 5>Principal has long been a supporter of that.

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:41.399
<v Speaker 7>If you look at our board, if you look at

0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:44.120
<v Speaker 7>our management team, if you look at us thirty years ago,

0:19:44.200 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 7>we had a lot of gender diversity. And again that

0:19:47.560 --> 0:19:52.959
<v Speaker 7>environment has encouraged others to continue to rise within senior

0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:55.919
<v Speaker 7>manager of the organization. So I think it's giving it

0:19:56.040 --> 0:20:04.080
<v Speaker 7>opportunities females, finding organizations that support that and ultimately seeing

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:09.120
<v Speaker 7>other people succeed gives others the confidence that they can

0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:11.320
<v Speaker 7>reach those aspirations as well.

0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:13.560
<v Speaker 2>Dan, I canna have to leave it there. Deanna Strabels,

0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:17.400
<v Speaker 2>the incoming CEO, formerly CFO of Principal Financial Group, joining

0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:20.160
<v Speaker 2>us from Iowa. Also here in the studio Nina Traman,

0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:23.440
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Senior editor. She writes the CFO Briefing newsletters.

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.959
<v Speaker 2>Sign up for it at Bloomberg dot com slash CFO Briefing.

0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:32.760
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:35.639
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:38.760
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0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:20:42.080 --> 0:20:47.199
<v Speaker 1>New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomco Journal.

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:54.080
<v Speaker 5>Now about you let me drive?

0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:59.640
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the travel.

0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.879
<v Speaker 5>Excuse mate, I want to try it.

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 2>It's good question time.

0:21:08.560 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe dot Tim thing.

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:13.400
<v Speaker 5>We'll bround Dad.

0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:17.680
<v Speaker 4>On Bloomberg Radio, Jess Meant and Tim Senovik here in

0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:21.440
<v Speaker 4>the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. And what Charlie was just mentioning,

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:24.440
<v Speaker 4>we do have just under twenty minutes to go before

0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:26.880
<v Speaker 4>the closing bell on this Friday, wrapping up the week

0:21:26.920 --> 0:21:28.840
<v Speaker 4>here with the S and P five hundred on pace

0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:32.360
<v Speaker 4>for actually to notch losses here and closing for the week,

0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:34.159
<v Speaker 4>as well as a NASAQ one hundred, so would be

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:36.080
<v Speaker 4>the third week of losses in the past month for

0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:38.640
<v Speaker 4>the SNP. Well, the NATSAK one hundred scene just two

0:21:38.680 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 4>weeks of losses in the past ten And of course, Tim,

0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 4>you know it might feel like earning seed is in

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:48.560
<v Speaker 4>has winded down. Oh God, it ends I know it's true.

0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:50.879
<v Speaker 4>So we still have retailers though, even though ninety percent

0:21:51.440 --> 0:21:53.280
<v Speaker 4>of companies in the S and P five hundred had

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.800
<v Speaker 4>reported so far. So we're gonna have Walmart Low's target,

0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:58.560
<v Speaker 4>We'll have department stores. So real big tell here on

0:21:58.600 --> 0:22:00.480
<v Speaker 4>the consumer, especially on the back of the tail sales

0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:02.120
<v Speaker 4>data that we got earlier this week. But of course

0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:05.639
<v Speaker 4>you cannot forget the world's most valuable company as well

0:22:05.640 --> 0:22:07.240
<v Speaker 4>as the world's biggest ship maker. You may have heard

0:22:07.240 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 4>of it, Tim and Vidia, but also reporting after the

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:13.280
<v Speaker 4>closing bell next Wednesday, so stay tuned for that. But

0:22:13.400 --> 0:22:15.960
<v Speaker 4>more of the broader market heading into next week, along

0:22:16.080 --> 0:22:19.399
<v Speaker 4>with the implication of this week's FED commentary on the

0:22:19.440 --> 0:22:21.440
<v Speaker 4>path of rate cuts. Joining us now is Tracy Bell

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:25.760
<v Speaker 4>CIO at First Horizon Advisors in Alabama, Tracy. Always great

0:22:26.040 --> 0:22:28.400
<v Speaker 4>speaking with you. Of course, we did have Bloomberg's Mike

0:22:28.480 --> 0:22:32.840
<v Speaker 4>McKee interviewing Chicago Fed President Austin Goulesby in the previous hour,

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:35.440
<v Speaker 4>obviously talking about kind of the conundrum of where the

0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 4>neutral rate could potentially be when some officials were thinking

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 4>it was closer to three percent, but was kind of,

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:44.600
<v Speaker 4>you know, still standing firm on not mentioning too much

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:47.000
<v Speaker 4>about what could potentially happen with fiscal policy coming out

0:22:47.000 --> 0:22:49.040
<v Speaker 4>of Washington and saying that they're still going to be

0:22:49.160 --> 0:22:52.760
<v Speaker 4>on their mandate for obviously price stability, maximum employment. So

0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:55.919
<v Speaker 4>when it comes to you and managing money for your

0:22:55.960 --> 0:22:57.720
<v Speaker 4>clients going into next year when you do have a

0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:00.240
<v Speaker 4>lot of uncertainty on the policy side, how are you

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:02.399
<v Speaker 4>feeling going into this and what are you recommending to

0:23:02.480 --> 0:23:05.920
<v Speaker 4>your clients to add exposure to or to sell after

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 4>what's been a really gangbuster not just a year but

0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:10.240
<v Speaker 4>the past two years at the S and P five

0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:11.639
<v Speaker 4>hundred up more than fifty percent.

0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 8>Hey, yes, thank you. It's great to join you guys again.

0:23:15.760 --> 0:23:18.919
<v Speaker 8>And I saw that interview with Mike McKee and Austin

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.199
<v Speaker 8>googles Still a little while ago, and yes, he did

0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 8>stick to his guns on it, but he did say

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:26.520
<v Speaker 8>something that was really important. If CPI stays where it

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:28.840
<v Speaker 8>is today, it would be too high. So you know,

0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:31.920
<v Speaker 8>that's that's the talk this week after having quite a

0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:35.000
<v Speaker 8>run up in the equity markets after the election, that

0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:37.760
<v Speaker 8>having grown up in bonyles after the election, and then

0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:40.440
<v Speaker 8>getting a CPI number that was a little on the

0:23:40.480 --> 0:23:43.760
<v Speaker 8>hot side in that core services side, and then watching

0:23:43.880 --> 0:23:47.359
<v Speaker 8>that three month moving average CPI continue to move a

0:23:47.400 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 8>little higher from where it was back this summer, and

0:23:50.640 --> 0:23:52.520
<v Speaker 8>you kind of ended up with the perfect storm today

0:23:53.119 --> 0:23:56.639
<v Speaker 8>of a sell off in markets on the equity side. So,

0:23:57.080 --> 0:24:01.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, thinking about where we're talking to for next year,

0:24:02.200 --> 0:24:05.240
<v Speaker 8>We've had a couple of years of really strong equity markets,

0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:09.440
<v Speaker 8>and that equity market return has been especially concentrated within

0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 8>large cap growth stocks and technology stocks in particular. So

0:24:13.920 --> 0:24:17.159
<v Speaker 8>a lot of clients today may find themselves in the

0:24:17.240 --> 0:24:20.600
<v Speaker 8>position where their targets are a little out of whack. So, yeah,

0:24:20.680 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 8>it's argetting in.

0:24:21.600 --> 0:24:24.320
<v Speaker 4>That case, are you trimming say when you have a

0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:26.320
<v Speaker 4>rally in some of these big names. Obviously in Vidia

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:28.800
<v Speaker 4>didn't have the greatest quarter in the third quarter, but

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 4>still one of the top performing stocks. Even the top

0:24:30.960 --> 0:24:33.680
<v Speaker 4>performing stocks actually at one point coming into this quarter

0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 4>was up almost one thousand percent over the last two years.

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:38.000
<v Speaker 4>So do you end up having to trim a stock

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:40.440
<v Speaker 4>like that ahead of earnings next week?

0:24:42.160 --> 0:24:44.840
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, you know, trying to time before and after earnings

0:24:44.920 --> 0:24:48.040
<v Speaker 8>that that's really difficult to do. Markets can move around

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:51.200
<v Speaker 8>those reports, and you really shouldn't try to time too much,

0:24:51.320 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 8>but you should look at your overall exposure. So if

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:57.080
<v Speaker 8>you're overexposed to equities at this point, you've got a

0:24:57.119 --> 0:25:00.040
<v Speaker 8>great opportunity to maybe trim that back and go go

0:25:00.560 --> 0:25:03.639
<v Speaker 8>into some fixed income. Some guilds are there now that

0:25:03.760 --> 0:25:06.560
<v Speaker 8>haven't been there in a while, especially after the past

0:25:06.600 --> 0:25:09.399
<v Speaker 8>couple of weeks. And then there's also the opportunity to

0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:13.840
<v Speaker 8>diversify the equity exposure across market cap. So large cap

0:25:13.920 --> 0:25:16.640
<v Speaker 8>stocks are expensive. They are trading it close to twenty

0:25:16.680 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 8>two times next year's earnings of the IC and P

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:19.200
<v Speaker 8>five hundred.

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:21.440
<v Speaker 4>Glad you brought that up, because that's also above the

0:25:21.800 --> 0:25:25.560
<v Speaker 4>ten year average, which sits around eighteen. So at this point,

0:25:25.640 --> 0:25:27.720
<v Speaker 4>when you have a strong rally over the last couple

0:25:27.720 --> 0:25:30.280
<v Speaker 4>of years, you have valuations as well as positioning a

0:25:30.359 --> 0:25:33.400
<v Speaker 4>little bit stretched. What is the setup going into next year,

0:25:33.640 --> 0:25:36.680
<v Speaker 4>even just aside from politics and things like that, because

0:25:36.720 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 4>I know a lot of portfolio managers, when you don't

0:25:38.480 --> 0:25:41.560
<v Speaker 4>have policies passed yet, you can't really, you know, manage

0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:45.920
<v Speaker 4>portfolios on that. So are stocks sitting a little bit say,

0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:49.560
<v Speaker 4>potentially vulnerable to maybe just a short term correction when

0:25:49.600 --> 0:25:51.880
<v Speaker 4>you have valuations and positioning stretched.

0:25:53.480 --> 0:25:56.960
<v Speaker 8>They can be in valuations or a situation where they're

0:25:57.000 --> 0:26:00.280
<v Speaker 8>more of a condition as opposed to a catalyst. But

0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:02.879
<v Speaker 8>you do have to understand that high valuations do mean

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:05.680
<v Speaker 8>that there is downside risk in the short term. It

0:26:05.800 --> 0:26:08.200
<v Speaker 8>may be a little bit of a limited upside return

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:11.200
<v Speaker 8>longer term, but you can diversify away from that, so

0:26:11.520 --> 0:26:14.320
<v Speaker 8>you can diversify out of large caps. Look at your

0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:17.680
<v Speaker 8>exposure to MidCap and small cap next year. In twenty

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 8>twenty five, earnings growth expectations from mid, large and small

0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:23.679
<v Speaker 8>cap companies are much more in line with each other

0:26:24.080 --> 0:26:26.440
<v Speaker 8>as opposed to this year when large cap growth was

0:26:26.560 --> 0:26:29.600
<v Speaker 8>really where the growth was. So next year you can

0:26:29.680 --> 0:26:33.520
<v Speaker 8>get potentially a better valuations small and mid or trading

0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:36.680
<v Speaker 8>closer to sixteen to seventeen times on forward earnings we're

0:26:36.680 --> 0:26:40.000
<v Speaker 8>as large as at twenty two, but next year earnings

0:26:40.080 --> 0:26:43.200
<v Speaker 8>growth across all the large cap, MidCap and small cat

0:26:43.280 --> 0:26:45.480
<v Speaker 8>spectrum is much more in line with each other.

0:26:45.720 --> 0:26:47.359
<v Speaker 2>So what should you do if you have cash right

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:49.920
<v Speaker 2>now on the sidelines. You've missed this rally in large caps,

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 2>you've reached this, missed this rally in domestics. What should

0:26:53.600 --> 0:26:54.320
<v Speaker 2>you do with the cash?

0:26:56.320 --> 0:26:56.840
<v Speaker 5>You know, one of my.

0:26:56.840 --> 0:26:59.520
<v Speaker 8>Favorite things to say to people is time in the

0:26:59.640 --> 0:27:02.800
<v Speaker 8>market is far more valuable than timing the market. So

0:27:03.040 --> 0:27:05.920
<v Speaker 8>putting together a plan to get yourself invested in a

0:27:06.000 --> 0:27:08.520
<v Speaker 8>way that spreads your timing risk, I think, is a

0:27:08.600 --> 0:27:11.160
<v Speaker 8>great way to approach it. The good old dollar cost

0:27:11.240 --> 0:27:14.680
<v Speaker 8>averaging is tried and true. It's a great method to

0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:16.400
<v Speaker 8>get yourself invested over the long term.

0:27:16.520 --> 0:27:18.200
<v Speaker 2>But what about looking to areas of the market that

0:27:18.280 --> 0:27:20.919
<v Speaker 2>are been unloved over the last few years, Emerging markets

0:27:20.960 --> 0:27:24.879
<v Speaker 2>for example, maybe even European developed markets.

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:30.639
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so on evaluation perspective, they certainly are less expensive.

0:27:31.080 --> 0:27:35.080
<v Speaker 8>There's probably some more headwinds there than there are domestically

0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.320
<v Speaker 8>at the moment. Jess mentioned the men there to goo

0:27:37.520 --> 0:27:41.840
<v Speaker 8>the unknown political environment, we don't know, but we know

0:27:41.960 --> 0:27:45.320
<v Speaker 8>that there are potentially headwinds there, and growth in those

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:47.680
<v Speaker 8>markets is not as attractive as in the US, so

0:27:47.840 --> 0:27:52.480
<v Speaker 8>that valuation gap between international and US may be somewhat warranted.

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:55.760
<v Speaker 8>At this point, you certainly should own these things. Diversification

0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:58.399
<v Speaker 8>is important, but you probably don't have to be in

0:27:58.400 --> 0:27:59.360
<v Speaker 8>as much of a hurry there.

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:02.600
<v Speaker 4>What about when it comes to small caps, because last

0:28:02.600 --> 0:28:04.360
<v Speaker 4>week there was a point in coming into this week

0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:07.280
<v Speaker 4>where the Rustle two thousand was actually close to being

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:09.320
<v Speaker 4>back at a record high, which it hadn't touched since

0:28:09.400 --> 0:28:11.639
<v Speaker 4>November of twenty twenty one, And now it looks like

0:28:11.680 --> 0:28:14.280
<v Speaker 4>that drawdown still around five percent though away from that,

0:28:14.400 --> 0:28:15.600
<v Speaker 4>but it's been one of those I mean, there's so

0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:18.159
<v Speaker 4>many zombie companies within this type of index. We're only

0:28:18.200 --> 0:28:20.359
<v Speaker 4>about thirty seconds left. But how do you position? And

0:28:20.440 --> 0:28:21.680
<v Speaker 4>do you position in small caps?

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:25.800
<v Speaker 8>Loll and mid or two of those areas where active

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:28.479
<v Speaker 8>management can really add value for you As you get

0:28:28.600 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 8>up the cap level up to large cap, you know,

0:28:31.640 --> 0:28:34.400
<v Speaker 8>index management less active management tends to make a little

0:28:34.440 --> 0:28:38.560
<v Speaker 8>more sense, but small mid find yourself a good active manager,

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:41.479
<v Speaker 8>you don't necessarily need to index in those areas.

0:28:42.440 --> 0:28:44.959
<v Speaker 2>All right, I'm gonna have to leave it there. Tracy,

0:28:45.000 --> 0:28:47.600
<v Speaker 2>thanks so much for joining us. Always great when you

0:28:47.680 --> 0:28:51.080
<v Speaker 2>join its. Tracy bell Is CIO over at First Horizon Advisors,

0:28:51.480 --> 0:28:52.959
<v Speaker 2>joining us from Alabama.

0:28:53.600 --> 0:28:56.840
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