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Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on

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Speaker 1: the BNEF podcast. When it comes to public electric vehicle chargers,

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Speaker 1: the US has nearly one hundred and fifty eight thousand

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Speaker 1: in the whole country. Now, this might seem like a

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Speaker 1: big figure, but when you set it against Europe's six

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety three thousand and China's colossal two point

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Speaker 1: one million, well then you start to realize the scale

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Speaker 1: of the task that lies ahead as the US readies

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Speaker 1: itself for the upcoming electric vehicle era of transport. So

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Speaker 1: looking back, in twenty twenty one, the Biden administration announced

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Speaker 1: the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program or NEV for short.

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Speaker 1: They had the intention of aiding the installation of charging infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: which would be required for the mass rollout of electric

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Speaker 1: vehicles across the States. However, complicating matters in the US

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Speaker 1: included the charging network itself. It's a patchwork quilt of

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Speaker 1: different entities competing against one another, and at the heart

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Speaker 1: of the battle has been an issue around whether your

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Speaker 1: vehicle is compatible either with the Combined Charging System or

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Speaker 1: CCS can not, or Tesla's own North American Charging Standard

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Speaker 1: equivalent now. Tesla was early in its national role out

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Speaker 1: of charging stations in ultrafast chargers, so it became a

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Speaker 1: dominant player. But with other electric vehicle brands now gaining

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Speaker 1: in popularity, this begs the question can anyone compete with

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Speaker 1: Tesla's charging network or will they have to join them?

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Speaker 1: To find out more, on today's episode, I speak with

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Speaker 1: beanuf's head of electric vehicle charging, Ryan Fisher, as well

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Speaker 1: as a senior associate on our EV team, Corey Kanter.

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Speaker 1: The topics that we discuss include the number of fast

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Speaker 1: and slow chargers across a variety of different US charging networks,

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Speaker 1: who owns them, their failings and also their successes, and

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Speaker 1: the subsidies on offer at the federal level as a

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Speaker 1: part of the Nevy scheme. And lastly, Tesla's competitors and

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Speaker 1: whether anyone can actually really challenge them or will their

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Speaker 1: rivals need to accept the North American charging standard as

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Speaker 1: the national standard. As always, if you like this podcast,

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Speaker 1: if you subscribe, you're going to receive updates on future episodes,

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Speaker 1: and if you give us a review, it'll make us

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Speaker 1: more discoverable by others. But right now, let's jump into

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Speaker 1: our conversation with Ryan and Corey. Corey thank you for joining.

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Speaker 2: The show today, Thanks Dana, happy to be.

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Speaker 1: Here, and Ryan, thank you for being here.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Diana.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to talk about charging networks, specifically in

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Speaker 1: the United States, where there's a lot of activity going

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Speaker 1: on at the moment. So can you first explain what

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Speaker 1: the NEVY is and then let's get into what that

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Speaker 1: means for charging in the US.

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Speaker 3: So, yeah, it's seven point five billion of funds from

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Speaker 3: the government, split into two main funds, five billion for

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Speaker 3: highway largely highways fast charging, and then another two point

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Speaker 3: five billion for initiatives in other areas called the Discretionary Grant.

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Speaker 3: Some more details on that to come.

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Speaker 2: And to add to Ryan's point, the NEVY funding in

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Speaker 2: the kind of five billion dollar pot is controlled a

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Speaker 2: lot by the state, and so they've already begun setting

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Speaker 2: out their plans and we're beginning to see the early

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Speaker 2: stages of charging companies actually be selected by state, so

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Speaker 2: Ohio and May and there are two examples. And so

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Speaker 2: even though the infrastructure law that began the funding of

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Speaker 2: the NEVY program passed almost two years ago, as of

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Speaker 2: this November, we haven't really seen any chargers built out

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Speaker 2: yet so there's still a lot of work to do.

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Speaker 1: So before we get into any source of details about

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Speaker 1: what we think will have in for the future of

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Speaker 1: charging networks in the US, because there is so much

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Speaker 1: focus on this at the moment, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: current state of play. So what does the existing charging

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Speaker 1: infrastructure look like in the US, and you know what

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Speaker 1: companies dominate it?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So the infrastructure in the US, I think there's

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Speaker 3: around one hundred and fifty hundred and sixty thousand connections. Now,

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Speaker 3: if you think about this kind of fast versus slow charging,

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Speaker 3: I want to take an hours, am I taking minutes

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Speaker 3: to charge? Something like one hundred and twenty five thousands

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Speaker 3: or thirty five thousand split. California maybe unsurprisingly dominate in

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Speaker 3: terms of the total states. I think New York is second,

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Speaker 3: but quite far behind. In terms of the company, Teslar

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Speaker 3: is kind of the key one out there installing, spending

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Speaker 3: the money putting in that fast infrastructure. And obviously we've

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Speaker 3: heard a lot about the deals with the other auto

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Speaker 3: makers and I'm sure we'll talk about that later today.

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Speaker 3: And then you've got others EVgo also putting in charges.

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Speaker 3: Electrify America, who's funded by VW and then Chardpoint, who

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Speaker 3: is kind of this weird mix in that they're selling

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Speaker 3: the hardware and the software but they're not ultimately the

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Speaker 3: operators of that infrastructure. But many other examples, but they're

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Speaker 3: the big ones.

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Speaker 1: So Corey, maybe you could shed some light on what

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Speaker 1: the current state of play is in California from a

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Speaker 1: charging standpoint.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, in terms of California specifically, what's interesting

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Speaker 2: is the fact that it's a fairly robust EV ecosystem.

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Speaker 2: For listeners of the show, to give you a sense,

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Speaker 2: California in the first half of this year saw about

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Speaker 2: a twenty five percent nearly one in four vehicles sold

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Speaker 2: as electric, and so at BNF when we talk about

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles, we're talking battery, electric and plug and how

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Speaker 2: productric vehicles. California has about one third of all of

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Speaker 2: the electric vehicle chargers public charging connectors built as of

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Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty two. I've been working recently

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Speaker 2: on a piece that folks should expect to see sometime

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Speaker 2: this month around different EV state markets, and California actually

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Speaker 2: looks quite good in terms of EV's per charging connector,

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Speaker 2: around twenty seven to twenty eight or so and so

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Speaker 2: it's not perfect. California has its own challenges to deal

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Speaker 2: with in terms of the grid and in terms of

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Speaker 2: ensuring that higher level of EV adoption can coexist with

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Speaker 2: a grid that's fairly reliable on renewable energy. But they

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Speaker 2: have a robust charging build out, including a state sponsor

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Speaker 2: of charging infrastructure, and they're even thinking ahead about what

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Speaker 2: the NEV program means for them. So one thing that

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Speaker 2: California does that's interesting with NEV is at the kind

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Speaker 2: of national level. NEV has a minimum requirement of one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty kilowatts for many of their highway fast chargers.

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Speaker 2: California is even looking at some sites where they're going

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Speaker 2: to require three hundred and fifty kilowatts for high volume

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Speaker 2: EV charging sites. So California, just like any country, has

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Speaker 2: its challenges, but they've been fairly robuts with their EV

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Speaker 2: charging build out.

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Speaker 3: The other thing about California we dicussed this when I

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Speaker 3: was on the podcast with Jay last time, but is

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Speaker 3: the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The LCFS basically credits deficits

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Speaker 3: built by the kind of oil and gas majors having

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Speaker 3: to then buy them off people who saw low carbon fuels.

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Speaker 3: So if you're producing or selling electricity for charging, you

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Speaker 3: basically can generate these credits and they are about ten

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Speaker 3: percent of revenues for some of these charging companies, which

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Speaker 3: kind of is cyclical, and then people were more likely

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Speaker 3: to build infrastructure, so kind of plays into why California

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Speaker 3: house more charges.

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Speaker 1: So when we think about these chargers, are the new

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Speaker 1: ones going in, are they largely superchargers or is there

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Speaker 1: an even split between these slower versus much quicker charging stations.

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Speaker 3: When you look most of the markets, you really see

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Speaker 3: percentage wise, it's kind of eighty percent the slower chargers

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Speaker 3: on a total number basis. If you then start to

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Speaker 3: look at investment or the number of electrons that are

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Speaker 3: being delivered from the chargers, it's really these fast and

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Speaker 3: more powerful ones that are taking the line share of

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Speaker 3: money and just cotributing electricity.

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Speaker 1: And we're talking specifically about public chargers at the slow range,

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Speaker 1: not in people's homes as they're setting them up directly

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Speaker 1: in their home after they've bought an electric vehicle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, So they could be anywhere. Golf courses

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Speaker 3: might have slow charges, hotels, these kind of destinations. But

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Speaker 3: more so when you think shopping centers were competing for

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Speaker 3: slow chargers. Now actually people are realizing, well, fast chargers

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Speaker 3: are also suitable there. We're seeing more competition. Walmart is

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Speaker 3: now getting in the game themselves, so.

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Speaker 1: They've recognized that essentially, if you're staying at a hotel,

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Speaker 1: you're more than likely to stay overnight and you have

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Speaker 1: enough time to get a charge, whereas if you're going

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Speaker 1: to Walmart, you may not be spending your entire day there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, and you kind of want to come out

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Speaker 3: and have your car full. So even though there was

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Speaker 3: this thing of oh, we'll have slow so people stay

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Speaker 3: in the store forever, like, there's a limit to how

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Speaker 3: long people probably want to stay in the in the store.

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Speaker 3: And I think that forty five minutes. With the battery

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Speaker 3: sizes we've got today on one hundred and fifty kilo,

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Speaker 3: what charge, which is kind of in that fast range,

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Speaker 3: would go from zero to eighteen ninety percent.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Corey and I both have these recent EXPERI

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Speaker 1: variances where we've rented Tesla's actually in different states. So Corey,

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Speaker 1: where were you when you rented your Tesla?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my girlfriend and I were at a wedding in California,

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Speaker 2: and it felt like the perfect opportunity to rent an

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Speaker 2: EV given how many chargers again are in California. So

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Speaker 2: we rented the Tesla Model three and when we're staying

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Speaker 2: at a hotel that advertised free charging. Unfortunately, Dana, that charger,

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Speaker 2: while offered and advertised, was so good that other people

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Speaker 2: were using it for pretty much the entire time that

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Speaker 2: we were there, So we ended up useeing fast charging

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Speaker 2: as a part of Tesla's supercharging network. But again, it

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Speaker 2: is a nice perk. I wish the hotel had more chargers.

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Speaker 1: So I rented Tesla why in Massachusetts and ended up

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Speaker 1: using it for three weeks across Massachusetts, New York State,

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Speaker 1: and Rhode Island and did a bit of a road

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Speaker 1: trip around there. And was definitely the stereotypical supercharger. Well

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Speaker 1: the person that they're looking for, which essentially pulls into

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Speaker 1: the parking lot, charges the car, and probably goes into

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Speaker 1: every store that's in that particular parking lot they were at.

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Speaker 1: But the more important thing was that we exclusively use

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Speaker 1: Tesla superchargers, and I am very interested to learn that

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Speaker 1: those superchargers are actually now open to a number of

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Speaker 1: other different types of car owners. Let's delve into that

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Speaker 1: a little bit. What other companies now have access to

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Speaker 1: Tesla superchargers in the US.

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Speaker 3: Oh, there's quite a few signed up, and it almost

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Speaker 3: makes it seem like a landslide win that everybody's going

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Speaker 3: to Tesla. So gm Ford were the first two, Mercedes

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Speaker 3: Is on their Rivian, Fiska, Volvo. The list goes on.

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Speaker 3: I think what's important is who's not on there, so Stalantis, Toyota, BMW,

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Speaker 3: High on Ikea. There's still some big hitters who have

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Speaker 3: not quite signed up yet, and they, whilst accounting for

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Speaker 3: maybe a small percent of EV sales, account for a

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Speaker 3: lot of car sales. So let's say some of their

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Speaker 3: strategy about how many evs they're going to sell comes true.

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Speaker 3: Then they're still splitting from Tesla and maybe being a

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Speaker 3: bit aware of the dominance and the strategic win that

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Speaker 3: they may hand by signing up with them.

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Speaker 2: Connect Okay, at one point, Ryan, and to just about

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Speaker 2: the Tesla dominance. So Tesla has rebranded its supercharging connector

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Speaker 2: as next the North American Charging Standard as an effort

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Speaker 2: to sort of broad in the reach of the network

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Speaker 2: and position themselves really as the leading charging connector type

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Speaker 2: here in the US and Canada. There's one stat you

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Speaker 2: use in a lot of your presentations that I really

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Speaker 2: appreciate because I think it really illustrates how much dominance

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Speaker 2: Tesla actually has. It was the installation of new superchargers

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Speaker 2: last year, which I believe was around like three thousand

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Speaker 2: or so, and these other networks are more, I think

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Speaker 2: in the five hundred or so range in terms of

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Speaker 2: new installations. And so there's a reason why these automakers

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Speaker 2: have been unhappy with some of the charging build out

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Speaker 2: to date, and I think that the numbers show it.

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Speaker 2: But also all of these announcements you just highlighted Ryan

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Speaker 2: really drive the point that it's not necessarily that everyone

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Speaker 2: wants to kind of jump on board with Tesla. It's

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Speaker 2: just they're so far out ahead of the competition over

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Speaker 2: here in the US that really the ev charging story

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Speaker 2: in the US is Tesla and then there's everyone else.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And like anecdotal stories are sometimes the best. And

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Speaker 3: I was kind of sat on my sofa and I

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Speaker 3: don't usually have Twitter, but a Twitter spaces pops up

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Speaker 3: and it's Mary Barrow and it's Elon Musk, and I'm thinking, like,

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Speaker 3: what is this, it's got to be some kind of

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Speaker 3: big announcement. And this comes on the back of Tesla

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Speaker 3: buying Twitter, GM not going on Twitter at all for

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Speaker 3: like seven eight months as the first time. They've never

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Speaker 3: posted anything in the whole time. And GM is maybe

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Speaker 3: the typical corporate car manufacturer, very organized, very explicit about

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Speaker 3: what they're doing. I'm pretty sure Elon Musk was in

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Speaker 3: his car. You could almost sound like you could hear

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Speaker 3: a child in the back seat muffling around, and it

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Speaker 3: was just so casual. So this massive strategic shift for GM.

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Speaker 3: It just showed that they were almost having to bow

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Speaker 3: down to Tesla, and surely they didn't want to do it,

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Speaker 3: but they just noticed all of the importance that was

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Speaker 3: in it, and that setting did show that they really

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Speaker 3: needed it. And Musk maybe was lauding it up a

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Speaker 3: little bit.

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Speaker 1: And then Ford actually followed the very similar trajectories GM.

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Speaker 1: I guess they predated it. So when did Ford sign

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Speaker 1: on for this charging network?

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Speaker 3: I think Ford was a little bit earlier, maybe two

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Speaker 3: three weeks earlier, and you could almost a bit of

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Speaker 3: a scramble really for GM to sign up. And I

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Speaker 3: think that falls through when you think about some of

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Speaker 3: the things the issues that may be caused by this.

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Speaker 3: You've got multiple connectors now in the US, some people

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Speaker 3: using CCS, some people using Tesla's. If I'm buying a car,

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Speaker 3: do i want to buy a car knowing that I'm

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Speaker 3: going to have an adapter when I go to a

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Speaker 3: different network. There's a reason why you don't want to

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Speaker 3: have these because they could be unsafe. Like you clip

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Speaker 3: it in and you can largely if it's the automaker

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Speaker 3: manufactured one not on clip it while you're charging. You're

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Speaker 3: not going to get an electric shot. But if you

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Speaker 3: buy one of the cheap ones online, it doesn't have

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Speaker 3: the safety catch and somebody might get electrocuted. So there's

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Speaker 3: all of these things coming out of it that are

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Speaker 3: just not not exactly ideal. So it isn't like a

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Speaker 3: straight switch. Some of these are saying we're going to

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Speaker 3: adopt this in two years on our vehicles, So it

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Speaker 3: doesn't give the best gloss for the OEMs.

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Speaker 1: Now you mentioned CCS, No, Ryan, this just shows me

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Speaker 1: that you have been working in the electric Vehicle team

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Speaker 1: for a very very long time because CCS means something

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Speaker 1: a little different to many of us at BNEF. What

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Speaker 1: does CCS mean to you in this car text?

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Speaker 3: So I think the acronym is combined charging system. But

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Speaker 3: essentially you can think of it if you go from

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Speaker 3: a europe or to the US, or US to Europe.

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Speaker 3: It's just a slightly different connector standard in terms of

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Speaker 3: how the pins look and then maybe some of the

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Speaker 3: actual software and communications behind it. So moving over to Tesla,

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Speaker 3: once it works perfectly today you plug a Tesla into

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Speaker 3: a Tesla supercharger. If you actually with one of these

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Speaker 3: other OEMs, there isn't any real guarantee that it's going

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Speaker 3: to fully work. Are they going to be able to

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Speaker 3: implement it the same? Are they going to want to

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Speaker 3: implement it the same? So the problem for the other

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Speaker 3: OEMs is you buy a Volkswagon and you go and

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Speaker 3: charge somewhere it doesn't work. It's because everybody's using the

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Speaker 3: same thing. They maybe not implemented the standard correctly, or

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Speaker 3: they've all implemented it slightly different. And whilst the gloss

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Speaker 3: of what Tesla is doing is there and like this

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Speaker 3: ultimate oh, it's going to be the same pinnacle, the

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Speaker 3: same experience. I have to admit there's a bit of

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Speaker 3: pessimism from me as to whether that will actually be

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Speaker 3: the case when these other charge manufacturers go And Corey

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Speaker 3: was maybe more in the detail on this, but there's

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Speaker 3: a series on Charge TV, which is like a magazine.

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Speaker 3: Somebody's gone out and they're discussing four part series on

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Speaker 3: this experience. They've gone out and they've interviewed a lot

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Speaker 3: of people, and when you look in some of those details,

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Speaker 3: it almost seemed like top down they decided at exec level,

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Speaker 3: we're going to move to the Tesla charging connector, and

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Speaker 3: some of the engineers maybe didn't quite know. And nobody's

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Speaker 3: going to come out and say that full well, but

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Speaker 3: that there was like a little bit of that appearing

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Speaker 3: in the text and the sentiment of those articles.

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Speaker 1: Well, because this is why I keep harping on about

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Speaker 1: when the dates were that these agreements were made, and

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Speaker 1: GM and Ford were fairly recent, but perhaps the other

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Speaker 1: companies were quite a bit before that. And then I mean,

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Speaker 1: maybe you can answer that question for me, because the

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Speaker 1: reason I am fixated on is the fact that I

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Speaker 1: did not see anything other than a Tesla on a

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Speaker 1: Tesla supercharger, and trust me, I went to quite a

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Speaker 1: few of them over the course of three weeks and

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking maybe the owners of these other cars just

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Speaker 1: don't know, or as you're inferring, maybe the experience isn't

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Speaker 1: as seamless as we might think it will be.

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Speaker 3: Oh, so it was Ford was first. I must have

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Speaker 3: been May, mid May, back end of May. That then

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Speaker 3: GM in the June, I think, and then all of

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Speaker 3: these other ones then followed over the preceding weeks.

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Speaker 1: So this is really extremely recent.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, extremely recent. So none of these are the cars.

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Speaker 3: They've all still got the CCS connector. There's probably no

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Speaker 3: adapters that you can buy yet, so they physically probably

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Speaker 3: can't many of them go Some of the charger manufacturers

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Speaker 3: have put Tesla's connector on the thing, so you went

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Speaker 3: to a charge point one, it might now have the

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Speaker 3: Tesla or Next connector as it's called.

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Speaker 1: So now when I go home next summer, it might

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Speaker 1: be a very different experience, and I might be waiting

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Speaker 1: in the queue for other cars to get off of

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Speaker 1: these chargers, because that does happen when they get completely flooded.

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Speaker 1: You have to kind of sit there and wait five

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Speaker 1: minutes for somebody else to vacate the charger.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and one of the things of this deal that

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Speaker 3: didn't get well highlighted was that they only actually access

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Speaker 3: twelve thousand of the superchargers and there's nineteen thousand in

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Speaker 3: the system. So they're actually doing a little bit of

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Speaker 3: probably analysis to say which ones have low utilization and

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Speaker 3: can take other people, which one of the premium locations

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Speaker 3: for Tesla drivers that we want to keep, So they're

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Speaker 3: not giving access to everything. Now.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about this in terms of profitability

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Speaker 1: because when I thought about chargers a couple of years

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Speaker 1: ago was when Tesla was initially launching this exclusive network.

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Speaker 1: In many respects, I think a lot of this were

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Speaker 1: thinking about the chargers as a way to facilitate Tesla

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Speaker 1: ownership and that they themselves were not the business. But clearly,

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Speaker 1: if Tesla's out there now selling the superchargers, it's not

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Speaker 1: an exclusive use situation anymore. And this begs the question

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Speaker 1: what are the margins like for these chargers and are

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Speaker 1: these themselves a business in their own right? And is

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Speaker 1: the game really very much changed to being about cars

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Speaker 1: and charging rather than focus specifically on selling the vehicles.

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Speaker 3: I mean, in one of the tweets Musk did, he

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Speaker 3: said it was about we're not looking to make much

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Speaker 3: profitabilities about ten percent margin we're looking for. Some of

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Speaker 3: the companies are now if you look across Europe or

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Speaker 3: Lego is one that is on the stock exchanges, and

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Speaker 3: they do fast charging, and that's one of the main

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Speaker 3: things they're now aiming at. They're saying, we can pay

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Speaker 3: back these chargers in four years and the IRR can

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Speaker 3: be twenty five percent. So certainly there's glimpses of it.

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Speaker 3: In BP's investor presentation recently, maybe three weeks ago, Bernard

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Speaker 3: Loney was saying that a bit DA positive for Germany

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Speaker 3: and China. So there's certainly signs that this is going

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Speaker 3: in the right direction. If you look at some of

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Speaker 3: the charge point operators though, so eve Goo is one

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Speaker 3: in the US, they're selling electricity. They have made their

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Speaker 3: revenues have grown quite a lot, but if you look

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Speaker 3: at the percentage of revenues, they've had to move into

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Speaker 3: the game instead of selling electricity, building the chargers for

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Speaker 3: other people, So sixty six percent of their total revenues

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Speaker 3: were actually instead of their original business model, we're going

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Speaker 3: to sell electricity, they're now making most of their revenue

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Speaker 3: from building chargers for other networks.

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Speaker 1: Oh well, okay, so now, Corey, you have this experience

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Speaker 1: recently in California using the Tesla network in where it

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Speaker 1: is actually most prevalent. Did you go to any other chargers?

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Speaker 2: No? And you know what, it's more so because it's

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Speaker 2: so integrated into the car experience and knowing what you

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Speaker 2: do as a US driver. I mean the number of

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Speaker 2: newspaper articles that pop up on a monthly or quarterly

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Speaker 2: basis saying Electrify America charger down or four out of

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Speaker 2: five down. It just makes you now want to even

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Speaker 2: con h those options. And Tesla makes it really easy

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Speaker 2: with the app integration, so much so that when we

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Speaker 2: were talking about the NEV program before, part of NEV

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Speaker 2: requires all of the other charging operators, the charge Point,

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Speaker 2: ev GO, Electrifi America to kind of come together to

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Speaker 2: have a common app experience. Tesla was exempt from that

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Speaker 2: requirement because when the Biden administration struck a deal with

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Speaker 2: Musk to get those superchargers open that Ryan was talking about,

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Speaker 2: they basically said, Tesla, you can kind of keep your

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Speaker 2: own app and keep your own data to yourself. So no,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't a consideration, and frankly, without being confident in

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Speaker 2: the uptime, it's hard to make that decision. My dad

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Speaker 2: also drives or drives a Tesla for his day to

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Speaker 2: day life, and it was hard to even direct him

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Speaker 2: when he was in a bit of a charging desert

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Speaker 2: towards one of those other charging companies, just because if

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Speaker 2: they were down, he would be so far away from

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Speaker 2: the supercharger that was likely to be up that he

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Speaker 2: could be in some real ev related i'd say range danger.

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Speaker 2: So no data, it's really sticking with the Tesla network

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Speaker 2: has worked out quite well here and so yeah, from

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Speaker 2: my experience, I wasn't even looking at so use a

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Speaker 2: kind of other adapter.

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Speaker 1: So we certainly expect to see some real enhancements to

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Speaker 1: the I guess guiding one two a charger and actual

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Speaker 1: real time information regarding what's available, what's working, and what's

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Speaker 1: not in the near term in order to facilitate I

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Speaker 1: guess the wider rollout. Does that then mean that that's

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Speaker 1: going to provide an advantage to some of these other networks,

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Speaker 1: or do we think that because Tesla's so far ahead,

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Speaker 1: and now you're indicating that so many companies are actually

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Speaker 1: jumping on to this particular existing network, that really that's

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Speaker 1: the one most poised to expand.

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Speaker 2: It's not like Tesla's. It's a integration with these vehicles

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Speaker 2: moving forward is going to be seamless. I mean, when

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Speaker 2: you're operating the supercharger network to date, there's been four

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Speaker 2: different vehicle models that they've had to work on, and

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Speaker 2: you know, we're all still waiting for the cyber truck

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Speaker 2: to see if that's able to work seamlessly. Now, when

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Speaker 2: you're talking about dozens of different models from different automakers

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Speaker 2: before you're even getting to be adapter that Ryan mentioned,

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Speaker 2: let's say we're you know, a year and a half,

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Speaker 2: two years from now, that's still a lot for an

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Speaker 2: opt or to manage. On the other hand, when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the competitors, and we could jump into the

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Speaker 2: joint venture that was announced the joint Consortium of seven

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Speaker 2: auto makers, at some point there just isn't kind of

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Speaker 2: a clear game plan for how these guys are going

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Speaker 2: to even kind of claim the number two spot in America.

434
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 2: At least on my end, I could say there's definitely

435
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 2: a lot of charging need here. So while Tesla's probably

436
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: growing stronger with a lot of these announcements, it's not

437
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 2: a done deal that they'll be the only large charging

438
00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 2: network provider here. But on the other hand, at this

439
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 2: early point, it's hard to say that you can jump

440
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 2: on bandwagon of another charging infratructure operator to say that

441
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 2: they will learn from the early stage and be able

442
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 2: to take advantage of the market as it grows here.

443
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,679
Speaker 3: So the US manufacturers have formed a consortium recently, so

444
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,640
Speaker 3: they're saying we're going to build thirty thousand charges, which

445
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 3: is the biggest announcement we've seen. That will put them

446
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: in a strong position. But then the question comes can

447
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,359
Speaker 3: they deliver that? Can they deliver what they've got? Can

448
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 3: you go from a standing start to being something producing

449
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 3: tas been doing this for probably I don't know what

450
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 3: it was, twenty twelve, something like that, So delivering it

451
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 3: is difficult. Having the sites is difficult, getting the grid connections.

452
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 3: As a kind of high level point, we don't know

453
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 3: whether we're going from a position of this really reducing

454
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 3: in costs significantly over time, because the key pieces of

455
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,479
Speaker 3: land might go, the good grid connections may go. What

456
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 3: Tesla has that we've not discussed. There's low costs of hardware,

457
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 3: and we've seen that come out in some of the

458
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,400
Speaker 3: Nevy grants. So that five states I think have been awarded.

459
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: We'd already analyzed this last year in our kind of

460
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: charger survey. Most people are somewhere between one hundred and

461
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 3: twenty and two hundred thousand dollars per connector on kind

462
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 3: of a project level, and Tesla seemed down at like

463
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 3: forty thousand. I was reading one today that said seventeen

464
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 3: thousand per connector. So they're able to do this much cheaper.

465
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 3: Some of that is, I think the hardware production scale,

466
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: and some of it I think is things like they're

467
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 3: prefabricating the chargers, they're putting it like a big block

468
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 3: of them in one go.

469
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,400
Speaker 1: What are the companies that are essentially trying to pose

470
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 1: competition for the incumbent?

471
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: So that deal and Corey, you might be able to

472
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 3: correct me if I'm wrong, basically includes most of those

473
00:21:55,680 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 3: in Ionity, so being able to be HYONDI Mercedes, Stalantis GM.

474
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 3: It's maybe interesting in a way of who's not in

475
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,479
Speaker 3: it because Ford and Volkswagen are not in it, so

476
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 3: Ford is not so obvious. Volkswagen have Electrify America, so

477
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 3: maybe they're saying we don't want to fund the like

478
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 3: another network we've already got on.

479
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 1: Network, so there's a third network. So essentially you would

480
00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: need to in some way well be allowed to use

481
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 1: each of these three networks if you wanted to have

482
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: one complete network that would enable you to avoid charging deserts.

483
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: And I think this is one of the things that

484
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: really differs from when you think about petrol stations, where essentially,

485
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 1: not only are they everywhere, but more importantly, you can

486
00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: go to anyone and anyone will take your money. Do

487
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: we foresee a future in the US where these different networks,

488
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 1: at least on a page you go basis, will be

489
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: available to anybody with an electric vehicle or is it

490
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 1: going to still continue to be quite restricted by brand

491
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 1: to charger type.

492
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 2: That's what the Biden administration hopes, right. A lot of

493
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: these heavy grant requirements is aiming for interoperability, and Ryan,

494
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: to your point, we're only talking about two to three

495
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: different charger types, right. We've talked to at CCS, and

496
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 2: next there's an older version here called Chadmo, which is

497
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: really only used by Nissan. So the networks are kind

498
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 2: of I like to think of them as maybe gas

499
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 2: station companies or petrol station companies. It doesn't mean that

500
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 2: the same EV can't work if they have a NAX

501
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 2: connector available. But I think the bigger question around kind

502
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 2: of these competitors that Ryan just got to is, is

503
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: this new kind of joint consort SIAM going to be

504
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 2: on the level of getting that land because right announce

505
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 2: spencer nice, but building EV chargers is more difficult. And

506
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: now when you're seeing these really low Tesla bids, even

507
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 2: if you're a state using nev funding attempting to kind

508
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 2: of have a diversity of chargers, if Tesla is able

509
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 2: to do, it's so much cheaper and they keep on

510
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 2: winning these grants, they're going to only continue to gain

511
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 2: more of that market power. But at least from a

512
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: conceptual standpoint, if there's two or three or four big

513
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 2: charging networks here in the US, that'd probably be a

514
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: good thing for consumers. It's less of a tech problem

515
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 2: and more of a you know, making a profit and

516
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: competitive advantage issue.

517
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,639
Speaker 1: So you mentioned Electrify America, which is one of the

518
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 1: larger US electric vehicle charging companies, but there has been

519
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: some scrutiny recently over some of these failings. You referenced

520
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,239
Speaker 1: broken chargers showing up and things not quite working. So

521
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: paint a picture in my mind of what exactly is

522
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: going on there.

523
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: So I think there's two dynamics, one that is maybe

524
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: less talked about and one that is a bit more

525
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 3: of it. So one of them is that you've got

526
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 3: all of these different vehicle manufacturers trying to work with

527
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 3: one charger network rolling out. Then the technical standards are

528
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 3: not working, some of them are turning off. Maybe you

529
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 3: could argue this is like a separate side business of

530
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 3: VW and they're not so interested in it. Fundamentally, this

531
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 3: was legislated that because of diesel Gate, they had to

532
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: own this business. Even from there you could say, well,

533
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 3: why wasn't the money given to other people? Why did

534
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 3: it VW get to spend it themselves. They then had

535
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 3: this kind of arguably strategic advantage. Then you've got the

536
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: like press versus reality side of it. So if you

537
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 3: look at the statistics, in twenty twenty one, they delivered

538
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 3: forty one gig what hours of energy and in twenty

539
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 3: twenty two they'd delivered one hundred and seventy three gig

540
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: what hours of energy, So there are actually delivering much

541
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 3: more energy people are whilst they're all we hear about

542
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,239
Speaker 3: is failures they're delivering a lot of stuff, but no

543
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 3: doubt there is a lot of talk about how bad

544
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 3: the situation is and that it never works. And I

545
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 3: think that's led to a lot of the car manufacturers

546
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: basically saying we're kind of annoyed behind the scenes at

547
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 3: VW and maybe fed into this other network that they've

548
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 3: the joint venture that's come together.

549
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 1: And you said, VW has this network because of diesel Gate,

550
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 1: And first of all, explain what diesel gate is for

551
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: those of us who have a short corporate memory. And secondly,

552
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 1: why because of diesel Gate.

553
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 3: I'll give a short answer, and I'm sure Corey knows

554
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 3: all of the details. But basically, diesel gate, they put

555
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 3: devices on the cars that would perform in the test

556
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 3: runs when you go out to see what emissions the

557
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 3: car were giving, and they give a low score, and

558
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 3: it was actually found in the wild that they were

559
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 3: giving much more higher emissions. And therefore governments realized this

560
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,640
Speaker 3: and they said, well that's not correct, and they find

561
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 3: them a lot of money.

562
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: So in the US there's a lot of guessoline over

563
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 2: a diesel. But there was a part of the I

564
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 2: think global Volkswagen issues with emissions testing in the Environmental

565
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 2: Protection Agency back in about twenty fifteen called them out

566
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 2: on them and successfully negotiate the settlement. So, in terms

567
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 2: of context of why this was happening and why not

568
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 2: giving it to a bunch of charging companies, Tesla was

569
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 2: an existing company at that point, But going back to

570
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, evs were just a trickle in the bucket,

571
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,679
Speaker 2: and so what the EPA at the time was thinking

572
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 2: is they did something bad, We're going to have them

573
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: put the money towards funding things like charging infrastructure, maybe

574
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: some school buses or buses to do something good right,

575
00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 2: to kind of build out the network of the future.

576
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,400
Speaker 2: What's interesting is we've been talking a lot about NEV.

577
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: Two billion dollars is one third of the NEV program

578
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 2: just about and you could see maybe money doesn't go

579
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 2: as far as it should. Volts Wagon I think Ryan,

580
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: you're right that there is definitely a partier maybe reality

581
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 2: than the statistics show. And in that charge that EV

582
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 2: magazine piece, which is by John Volker, a lot of

583
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 2: the conversation in his piece is around the frustration they

584
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 2: had there with electric fire a market in particular, just

585
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: because they had such a long lead up time and

586
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 2: it's even rubbed off to some extent on the other

587
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: EV charging companies, even if it's not necessarily their fault.

588
00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 2: What I'd say from an analyst perspective, and I think

589
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: it'd be great for where both my team and Ryans

590
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,360
Speaker 2: seem to have more of this information, is just more

591
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 2: transparent data on uptime. I think that's been a frustration

592
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 2: for a lot of researchers in the US to get

593
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 2: a sense of are things really as bad as news

594
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: reports say. Unfortunately, Electrified America in particular has been pretty

595
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 2: protective of their data, you know, understandable in some ways

596
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 2: because it's their customers, but to combat that narrative, and

597
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 2: so when these Tesla announcements have been happening around automaker

598
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 2: switching to next, there hasn't even been much of a

599
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: pushback from some of the CCS companies. If anything, they've said, okay,

600
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,360
Speaker 2: we'll just add a connector, as opposed to saying, well,

601
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 2: the reality is CCS does provide some good benefits, in

602
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 2: particular around vehicle to grid. Tesla says their chargers can

603
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 2: do it, but we haven't really seen it to date.

604
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,479
Speaker 2: And in some of that three hundred and fifty kW

605
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 2: charging that for example, the high end Dionic five uses

606
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 2: Tesla says their V four of their supercharger, we'll be

607
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: able to do that. But again, a lot of this

608
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: is depending on Tesla, and so you haven't even seen

609
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 2: the CCS. Folks make the arguments that many of the

610
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 2: cool ev technologies are built around ccs or CCS two

611
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 2: in Europe PR battle.

612
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 3: It's almost like Tesla obviously wants you to think it's

613
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 3: the best connector. It's this, that and the other. They've

614
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 3: literally got Mary Barr saying it's a lighter connector, it's

615
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 3: even better. After what was it five maybe what six

616
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,439
Speaker 3: years of them saying they're using ccs, they're just like

617
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 3: totally bowing to Tesla. Yet you then look at the

618
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 3: other side of the story and you think, well, why

619
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 3: was elected fire America not out there with four times

620
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 3: more energy distributed in one year and that all of

621
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: these good things. And I think there is a little

622
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 3: bit of like the PR play and that obviously for Tesla.

623
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: Now they've got all these automakers on their system, that

624
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: system goes through standards that they want. They're going to

625
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:34,919
Speaker 3: their chargers. What if they said, oh, well, to use

626
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: those twelve thousand chargers. Now you've got to pay a

627
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 3: bigger deal in five years time. Like, we don't know

628
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 3: the terms of those deals, but certainly seems quite quite

629
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 3: strong for them. And it's not just the automakers that

630
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 3: are slightly worried about that. If you're a charging operator

631
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 3: and you've decided to put the Tesla connector in what

632
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,440
Speaker 3: Tesla then say, oh, to use our connector. Now you

633
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 3: have to pay some more money as well. So people

634
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,720
Speaker 3: are a bit unsure. But for Tesla, that was it

635
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: was like a month or two months of just like

636
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: positive news on everybody bow and all of a sudden

637
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 3: they're in this dominant position. But there's a reason why

638
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 3: the Toyota's Dealantis's high ond ikeas have not gone to

639
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 3: that way. Although when you read the news you might

640
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 3: think everybody has the realities, they haven't.

641
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: One thing. I'll just say to give Tesla a little

642
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: bit of credit and not just say that they're completely,

643
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 2: not completely just pushing this on everyone. They have been

644
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: working with the US Department of Energy and Transportation's Joint

645
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 2: Office to basically work on sandradization through an organization known

646
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,760
Speaker 2: as SAE International. So they're charging Department of Engineers at

647
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: TESLA are doing a lot of the right things. This

648
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 2: standardization process is expected to take through the rest of

649
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: this year, which is on the expedited process that began

650
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 2: in June. So assuming they dot the i's and cross

651
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: the t's correctly, there is a lot of smart maneuvering

652
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: the Tesla's doing. And want to at least say this

653
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 2: isn't just completely at the you know, Elon tweeted it

654
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 2: out and it's it's only happening via tweet. We don't

655
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 2: know what the contracts look like. And to Ryan's point,

656
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: there is a lot of uncertainty in the space, but

657
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 2: there is a really good charging in for structured division

658
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 2: at TESLA, and they are going through the motions on

659
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: a lot of the correct standards. Assuming that these processes

660
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: are complete, I think to your point, Ryan, there's been

661
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: almost too many news reports that says this is going

662
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 2: to be super easy, this is only going to be

663
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 2: a plus for the US consumer immediately, and I think

664
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: the reality is kind of somewhere in between. It has

665
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: a lot of upside to make the US have a

666
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: better charging network, but it's not a simple light switch

667
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 2: that all the automakers are going to flip and that

668
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: Tesla's going to necessarily play ball on everything. So I

669
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: think you never want to give an answer where it's

670
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 2: really uncertain. But I think the next six months are

671
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 2: going to determine how smoothly this goes. And then really

672
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: it might take a full year until you're getting the

673
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 2: model year twenty twenty five cars to even see really

674
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: how successful is this rollout. And one last thing, I'll

675
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,479
Speaker 2: say that Ryan, maybe you've heard differently, but a lot

676
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: of automakers when you ask them over here, are you

677
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 2: just going to have a NAXT connector on your model

678
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 2: twenty five cars or if you're going to have both

679
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: CCS and next and they won't give a straight answer.

680
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 2: So even the automakers who have made the Tesla switch

681
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 2: announcement having come out and said, you know, are we

682
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,479
Speaker 2: fully moving away from from ccs or are we going

683
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: to kind of straddle a middle line? And so again,

684
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 2: if I'm a consumer, you want to be patient. If

685
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 2: you're buying a non Tesla car.

686
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: Wow, six months is not that long, but certainly you

687
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: have So we've got automakers banding together trying to solve

688
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: the solution by making let's say alliances with one another,

689
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 1: and then the NEVY to stimulate some of the growth

690
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: here in the federal government then looking to essentially see

691
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: this through, to see this network become more robust, and

692
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: to really facilitate that change to electric vehicles. What then,

693
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 1: is the role of state governments and have they been

694
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: more of a facilitator or hindrance into some of this

695
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: roll out across different parts of the US.

696
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 2: I think the state governments outside of California, they're very

697
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 2: early on the EV trajectory. I mentioned the state EV

698
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: market note that I've been working on, and you do

699
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 2: have some states that are beginning to break through with

700
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: their electric vehicle share of new car sales, which is

701
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: an early indicator of how EV markets are changing. So

702
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: places like Colorado, Nevada, I got to plug, my home

703
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 2: state of New Jersey are all doing quite well. And again,

704
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: each state can be as large as some European countries,

705
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: so it's not necessarily easy to do this for the

706
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 2: first time. They've all submitted their plans for NEVY as

707
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: of last year, and to Ryan's point, they're working on

708
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: proposals now to get the charging companies that will eventually

709
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 2: put up the chargers at their sites. I think ultimately

710
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: the state governments are going to be helpful, but right

711
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 2: now things are moving slower than I'm sure a lot

712
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: of EV consumers would want. I think the most important

713
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: thing is less speed and more making sure that they've

714
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: done it right. And frankly, the CCS and NACT kind

715
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 2: of conundrum here has added another layer of complexity for

716
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 2: these state governments to have to grapple with. I'll give

717
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: you an example. So some states like Texas are now

718
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: requiring Tesla's NAXT connector to be built on every NEVY

719
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: funded charging site in the state of Texas. There are

720
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: some other states that are doing that as well. And

721
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: so what that means is, if you're a charging infrastructure

722
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 2: operator and you want to build in Texas, you have

723
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: an additional requirement on top of all of the national

724
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: requirements to boost Tesla's standing. Not necessarily because Texas houses Tesla.

725
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: There might be a part of it the Austin factories there.

726
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 2: But states don't have an easy job figuring out how

727
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: to navigate this. They do have a lot of federal

728
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 2: resources and there's a ton of money, but they have

729
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 2: to really make sure that this isn't a boondoggle. So

730
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: I think the way they're going about this is taking

731
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 2: their time to do this right as opposed to maybe speed.

732
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: The law passed almost two years ago now, and we

733
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 2: haven't seen really any chargers built, and.

734
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 1: You're saying that you expect to see things. Really I

735
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: guess the dust is settle over the next six miths

736
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: a twelve months. But what are the longer term Biden

737
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: administration goals that are expected to outlive his administration? Perhaps

738
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: you know what is it that they're actually shooting for

739
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: with some of the different stimulus that they're looking at

740
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: in this space.

741
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: By the administration for a long time has had a

742
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: target of five hundred thousand V charging connectors by the

743
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 2: end of the decade. Whether that's the stations themselves or

744
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 2: the connectors. I've heard more on the connector's side, but

745
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 2: that's a bit of a vageity there. In terms of

746
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: the actual EV ship of sales, they had an executive

747
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 2: order aiming for about fifty percent EV share of sale

748
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 2: by twenty thirty and here at BNEF when we have

749
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 2: our long term outlook, we expect they'll be able to

750
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,760
Speaker 2: meet that target. And again they've put billions of dollars

751
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: towards this electric vehicle transition from not just the charging

752
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: side we've been talking a lot about, but also billions

753
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,359
Speaker 2: of dollars in electric vehicle tax credits. Just a couple

754
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: of weeks ago, there was an announcement about fifteen billion

755
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 2: dollars in EV manufacturing and retooling grants. So even outside

756
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: of charging world that we spent a lot of time

757
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: on today, the Biden administration is all in on kind

758
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: of fostering this EV growth. But again, when we're talking

759
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 2: to not just auto companies and other stakeholders, but consumers,

760
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 2: charging anxiety remains one of the main obstacles here. It's

761
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: no longer the models themselves, or even the prices of

762
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 2: some of these models, while still high, is more in

763
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 2: line with the average car press for new vehicles. Charging

764
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 2: is a pretty big hurdle.

765
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 3: I think that the if you think about our research,

766
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 3: so the five hundred K target, I think is a

767
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 3: great example of a politician setting something that they're easily

768
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 3: going to meet. We think somewhere more like two million

769
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 3: charges by the twenty thirty deadline that they're talking about.

770
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 3: If you reflect that back to some of the conversation

771
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: that we've had so far, we're saying there's thirty thousand today,

772
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 3: So whils we're saying Tesla is doing amazing. There is

773
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 3: actually a big gap for other people in this next

774
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 3: eight years which can be filled by those automakers and

775
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 3: other people in Europe. We just see so many players

776
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,919
Speaker 3: and they're not quite in the US yet. So BP

777
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 3: saying they're going to spend a billion in the US.

778
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 3: SHELL have acquired a couple of companies and we'd expect

779
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,280
Speaker 3: them to come in as well. A little bit different

780
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 3: where in EU you get a lot of utilities involved.

781
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 3: Not necessarily as easy for the utilities due to the

782
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:36,240
Speaker 3: structure of them in the US to be quite as involved.

783
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 3: But overall, what I'd say is you've gone from a

784
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 3: position in the US with limited momentum. There's not been

785
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 3: the right regulation. The IRA has come in, and then

786
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 3: these other people have decided, do you know what, Actually

787
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 3: there's going to be a market for evs. We didn't

788
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,279
Speaker 3: really believe it before, but now we believe it. It's

789
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: like the Trump administration to the Biden, the IRA money

790
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 3: then coming in, and nothing really shows it more than

791
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 3: those automakers coming together six years after they realized they're

792
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 3: going to have to do this in Europe. They've then

793
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 3: done it in America. Like, really, they'd come to this

794
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,359
Speaker 3: conclusion in Europe six years ago and it's taken them

795
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 3: that long to go Okay, well, really is real. The

796
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 3: US market is kind of evolving. Whether we're going to

797
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 3: meet these targets has many dependencies, and one of the

798
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: biggest ones you hear across the world is the grids.

799
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 3: Can you build the grid to do so? And some

800
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 3: of the regulators and energy commissions will have to focus

801
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 3: on that area to get this going.

802
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 1: And certainly the necessity for a robust grid is something

803
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,719
Speaker 1: that we addressed in a show just a couple of

804
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 1: weeks back. So it does underpin so much of the

805
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 1: transition in the energy industry. And then you're in electric vehicles,

806
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: so I think that actually, Corey, when you were talking

807
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: a second ago, you referred to it as a potential boondoggle.

808
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: And here's to hoping that when the dust settles, this

809
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: will be a much more robust charging network. For anybody

810
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: out there who really wants to understand why people are

811
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: so excited about superchargers and why they are such a

812
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 1: point of reference, I will say that my personal experience

813
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: of you know, spending nearly a month renting a car

814
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: and then doing a road trip and trying to make

815
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 1: it happen will certainly bring to light why thing that

816
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: so many of us who are looking at this transition

817
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: and actively engaged in it, see these solutions as something

818
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 1: that they're certainly interested in watching very closely because it

819
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: facilitates how you build your Saturday, or build your road

820
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 1: trip and live your life. So it's really interesting to

821
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 1: see from your research that you think that there's a

822
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: lot to gain and that there's a gap between these

823
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: targets and where it is will actually end up. And

824
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: so I would say I've got maybe the one thing

825
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: that each of you are watching most closely. So I'm

826
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: watching which percentage of these chargers are actually going to

827
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 1: end up being superchargers. What will be the one thing

828
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 1: that you're most intrigued by at this point in time

829
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: and kind of keeping your ear to the ground where

830
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: you don't know if there is an answer yet.

831
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 3: How many charges actually go in from each of these

832
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 3: companies saying they going to put charges in?

833
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:48,720
Speaker 2: Oh right, And I think for me, I'm most curious

834
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 2: to see if Tesla successfully finishes that certification process without

835
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 2: any hiccups. And if automakers fully switch with only a

836
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: NAX connector and once they're moving away from adapters, or

837
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 2: if they choose to both live in CCS world and

838
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 2: knocks at the same time by even having two adapters

839
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 2: on each vehicle, both are potential pathways for them to take.

840
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: But I'm curious to see if they're really all in

841
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 2: on TESLA.

842
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: All right, well, let's keep an eye on all of

843
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: the above. Thanks for joining today, Thanks Dana, Thanks Tana.

844
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg NEF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP

845
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: in its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor should

846
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 1: it be construed as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a

847
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg n

848
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: EF should not be considered as information sufficient upon which

849
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 1: to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor

850
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as

851
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,840
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852
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,000
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853
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:56,759
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854
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 3: H