WEBVTT - Surveillance: Post-Covid Bets With Neuberger’s Kantor

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring

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<v Speaker 1>you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>get to it right now, Charles Cancer and Bieberger Berman

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<v Speaker 1>Long Short Fund, City of portfolio manager and author of

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<v Speaker 1>the Cancer Sweet Green Index. What's going on? Charles? The

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<v Speaker 1>Sweet Green Index? I think references my my study of

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<v Speaker 1>how folks are coming back to work, and yesterday online

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<v Speaker 1>it was was almost a too our wait at at

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<v Speaker 1>twelve o'clock, which which for us like you in New York,

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<v Speaker 1>it feels good to get some vibracy back into into

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<v Speaker 1>midtown and folks are coming slowly back to work and

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<v Speaker 1>kids are going back to school. Also hopefully it's returned

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<v Speaker 1>to normal slowly. I look where we are, Charles cantor

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<v Speaker 1>right now in the sequence of interviews I've done with

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<v Speaker 1>thinkers who keep going back to the dreaded teword technology.

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<v Speaker 1>You you and your team are expert at this. The

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<v Speaker 1>overlay of technology seen Microsoft, Amazon, Whole Foods, the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of it, but unseen as well. Tell us about the

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<v Speaker 1>unseen technology now that makes you a bull owning stocks

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<v Speaker 1>look I think I think the technology goes to to

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<v Speaker 1>to to quality of business and and sometimes references forward thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>I think you Amazon example earlier, where you reference the

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<v Speaker 1>hiring is fascinating to us because it speaks to those

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<v Speaker 1>that have scale um and those that are forward thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of businesses out there are struggling

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<v Speaker 1>tremendously with with labor. They blaming to some degree the

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<v Speaker 1>stimulus um, which references the fact that people are getting

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<v Speaker 1>paid a lot, not to look um. As that gets

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<v Speaker 1>peeled back, I think folks are going to remind themselves

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<v Speaker 1>that it's really about competitive positioning and the lack of

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<v Speaker 1>forward thinking, and the lack of building a culture and

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<v Speaker 1>a pay system that really attracts and rewards the best talent,

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<v Speaker 1>and the lack of investing in technology and and all

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<v Speaker 1>of that technology investing is happening in some of the

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<v Speaker 1>best businesses that have come out of COVID as winners

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<v Speaker 1>and will remain winners because they're forward thinking and the

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<v Speaker 1>COVID experience for many businesses I think have revealed weaknesses

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<v Speaker 1>in in in investment decisions, whether it being supply chain,

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<v Speaker 1>in culture, in labor management. That and those seeds were

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<v Speaker 1>planted not last week, but many years ago. So Charles, well,

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<v Speaker 1>how dove tell this please into a market call? How

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<v Speaker 1>do you take this thesis that basically people are getting

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<v Speaker 1>exposed by the COVID even if they're hiding behind it,

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<v Speaker 1>and decide what to buy and what to short Because

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<v Speaker 1>for us, you know, I think we all like to

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<v Speaker 1>keep it simple and and and focus on the macro.

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<v Speaker 1>Focus on for you know, focus on is a growth

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<v Speaker 1>versus value. But as stock pickers and people that love

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<v Speaker 1>understanding nuance and fundamentals, we just don't think you can

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<v Speaker 1>paint this environment with with one with one brush. And

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<v Speaker 1>and value simply means that trades at a discount of

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<v Speaker 1>the market, and growth means that that revenues are strong.

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<v Speaker 1>The reality is in this environment you've got to be

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<v Speaker 1>painted a lot of attention to the middle of the

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<v Speaker 1>of the income statement, because I think businesses will continue

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<v Speaker 1>to suffer grows, margin degregation and potentially operating margin degregation

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<v Speaker 1>through forces driven by supply chain, cost, labor management, and

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<v Speaker 1>lack of competitive positioning, and so we will continue to

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<v Speaker 1>stay with with the beyond privilege, resilient and and and

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<v Speaker 1>kind of leading businesses, many of them sitting technology, but

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<v Speaker 1>they're sit in other industries as well. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>my word of caution is is to pay attention to

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<v Speaker 1>the details. Yes, revenue growth being fantastic because of kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a generational shifting in driven by demand coming out

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID, But as the dust settles into into next year,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be a focus back on

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<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, which businesses actually are built to lost,

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<v Speaker 1>who has the pricing power, who can hire the best labor,

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<v Speaker 1>and who has has much more diversified supply change that

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<v Speaker 1>can that can manage the global inconnect interconnected environment. And

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<v Speaker 1>so it's it's for us. It's going to be about

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<v Speaker 1>the companies. It hasn't really been because of the flood

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<v Speaker 1>of money um and and government stimulus and the like.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the end of the day, it's it's quality

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<v Speaker 1>of business that wins out. And and and what's an

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<v Speaker 1>example of this, if we can chance and forgive me

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<v Speaker 1>for jump again, give me an example of this right now,

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<v Speaker 1>who's gotting it done? What are your favorite lungs, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think our favorite lung center a center in in

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<v Speaker 1>in in the technology space. We're big believers in Amazon

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<v Speaker 1>because of their scale. Were big believers in Adobe because

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<v Speaker 1>of their scale. I mean we we love the businesses

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<v Speaker 1>that are facilitating today's environment, and you find them in

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<v Speaker 1>business businesses that would include Microsoft and work Day and

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<v Speaker 1>businesses that are are maybe not as obvious to to

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<v Speaker 1>to to and are not discussed each and every day.

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<v Speaker 1>So so for us, the loans don't really change much.

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<v Speaker 1>They continue to compound, they continue to take market share,

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<v Speaker 1>and they continue to liver for share doers. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>Microsoft is an example. Yes, the forty billion dollars doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>really matter, but it's but it's it's a signal that

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<v Speaker 1>they have more capital that they know what to do with.

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<v Speaker 1>And like many companies, balance sheets are fantastic um and

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<v Speaker 1>and they're buying back they stoff. Look for us, it's

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<v Speaker 1>I would stay. I'd be very cautious on consumer facing

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<v Speaker 1>businesses that are going to face tremendous labor and supply

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<v Speaker 1>chain issues into Christmas um as well as industrial cyclicals

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<v Speaker 1>that are not going to have the pricing power necessary

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<v Speaker 1>to manage supply chain complexities was really important conversation. We

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate its sound to kick things elf this morning. Thank you,

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<v Speaker 1>sir as a wise child's kinds of that of Newberger

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<v Speaker 1>Berman Buck dem sty with us right now. Unfortunately we

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<v Speaker 1>have to move from the lightness of John's jetender to

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<v Speaker 1>the reality of the great unraveling. It is some Auckland,

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<v Speaker 1>New Zealand to Singapore in the last twenty four hours,

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<v Speaker 1>and now we come out to the reality of Saint Nashville, Tennessee,

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<v Speaker 1>or wherever you want to pick on back to the

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<v Speaker 1>direction is not good. We're up to eight hundred deaths.

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<v Speaker 1>We were at sixteen hundred two cups of coffee ago.

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<v Speaker 1>What direction do you observe on this pandemic nationally and globally?

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<v Speaker 1>The nationally the news is I think a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more positive. But we're seeing is a plateau ng up

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<v Speaker 1>that peak that we have been experiencing for the lost week.

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<v Speaker 1>The deaths are still growing up, but previously we have

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<v Speaker 1>seen that there is a lag and the death we

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<v Speaker 1>would use as the pandemic its self plateaus. Globally, there

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<v Speaker 1>is hot pockets as countries that have managed to maintain

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<v Speaker 1>epidemic control have this low indulating rate of cases. Other

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<v Speaker 1>countries are seeing surgeries and trying to adapt accordingly. Um

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<v Speaker 1>there's still a number of countries globally where vaccine rates

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<v Speaker 1>are shut south of and that is problematic. You are

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<v Speaker 1>in emergency medicine with your international acclaim and epidemiology, what

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<v Speaker 1>do the people you know? And emergency medicine observed now

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<v Speaker 1>is different from a year ago, different from sixteen months ago,

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<v Speaker 1>so unfortunately a lack of difference from sixteen months ago.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a difference in patients. But right now nationally

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<v Speaker 1>we have a shortage of resources. UM, I was working,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna be working the overnight tomorrow night. I was

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<v Speaker 1>at working the overnight last week. UM My hospitals are full,

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<v Speaker 1>UM money hospitals on diversion, which is where the hospital

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<v Speaker 1>says we have no capacity, please find somewhere else to

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<v Speaker 1>receive care. There's long wait time to the ICU, and

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge that we're going to face is as the

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen cases continue to be a recent high, we

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<v Speaker 1>are now about to face a flue pant flue surge

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<v Speaker 1>as well. And so you know, physicians everywhere we are

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<v Speaker 1>concerned that we do not have the resources to adequately

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<v Speaker 1>care for all the patients who are critically ill who

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<v Speaker 1>need them. Dr Han Sarti, how prepared are we for

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<v Speaker 1>another pandemic? Well as prepared as we could be. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>We've been doing the same thing the last eighteen months. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>So we have optimized um at a health facility level,

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<v Speaker 1>as a health system level, as much as possible. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We have search preparedness plans, we have stockpiles a ppe,

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<v Speaker 1>we have the number of ventilators, we have a number

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<v Speaker 1>of ice, you beds, we have you have a critical

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<v Speaker 1>shortage of healthcare workers and especially nurses. So we are

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<v Speaker 1>running at maximum capacity. I don't know how you go

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<v Speaker 1>beyond maximum capacity. Well, I ask this because I've heard

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<v Speaker 1>a President Biden talk about getting a planting other to

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<v Speaker 1>combat more effectively the next pandemic. And there was a

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<v Speaker 1>study that was reported today from Duke In a number

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<v Speaker 1>of other medical researchers talking about other covid uh IF

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<v Speaker 1>infections that they are tracking around the world. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>how much of a concern is this in the near

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<v Speaker 1>term versus just something that's going to happen once every

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<v Speaker 1>hundred years. Well, I wish it was one every hundred years.

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<v Speaker 1>I fear it will be more frequent now. There are

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<v Speaker 1>several variants of interests that have emerged. Um there's some

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<v Speaker 1>variants that higher transmissibility than COVID. We don't know how

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<v Speaker 1>that plays out, given that a significant proportion of the

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<v Speaker 1>American population is a vaccinated or be has had COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>And we also don't know if these newer variants are

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<v Speaker 1>likely to cause severe illness or mildest symptoms, which is

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<v Speaker 1>what I'm really praying for. Doctor gotta leave it that

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<v Speaker 1>about to Hansanty that John's Helpkins Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a joy. He's a former Prime Minister of Latvia.

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<v Speaker 1>Far more, he is a physicist and I mean real

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<v Speaker 1>physicist with electrical engineering from the University of Maryland. Valdis

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<v Speaker 1>Dombrowsky is European commission Executive Vice President and Commissioner for Trade.

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<v Speaker 1>And what you need to know is a year ago,

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<v Speaker 1>eight months ago, ten months ago he was in the

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<v Speaker 1>Timeout chair over vaccination and he and others in Europe

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<v Speaker 1>have had the great success story of the turnaround of

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<v Speaker 1>Europe in vaccination. Prime Minister, thank you so much for

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<v Speaker 1>joining us today. How did you in Brussels in Europe

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<v Speaker 1>turnaround vaccination in Europe to sevent good morning. Indeed, as

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<v Speaker 1>regards vaccination campaign, by now more than seventy percent of

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<v Speaker 1>adual population in Europe are vaccinated. And what was important

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<v Speaker 1>is that European Union was acting on this as a whole,

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<v Speaker 1>so on behalf of the anti seven member states, we

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<v Speaker 1>were securing vaccines and that's what helps to secure this

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<v Speaker 1>availability because it's clear that the biggest and uh soorts

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<v Speaker 1>say richest EU countries could secure vaccines on their own,

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<v Speaker 1>but not the smallest anatonomically less developed countries. So we

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<v Speaker 1>ensure that vaccines are available across Europe and managed to

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<v Speaker 1>how a very effective vaccination campaign. Right, Prime Minister, how

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<v Speaker 1>did you sell unvaccinated people? The New York Times today,

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<v Speaker 1>Sir has a brilliant article and the failure of America

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<v Speaker 1>to convince the unvaccinated to get vaccinated? What was the

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<v Speaker 1>Dombrawski method? Well, first of all, it must be said

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at the vaccination rates in the EU,

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<v Speaker 1>there are also an E one. There are a number

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<v Speaker 1>of countries which are actually lugging behind. So there is

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<v Speaker 1>still lots of work also in the EU to convince

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<v Speaker 1>the pop relation to vaccinate, and we are still in

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<v Speaker 1>this work. Of course, vaccination campaigns are run by individual

0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:11.600
<v Speaker 1>member states, but we are helping all we can by

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<v Speaker 1>providing all necessary evidence, all necessary information, helping also to

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<v Speaker 1>counter disinformation fake news, which we see in this context.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's still an ongoing work, Commissioner, You've made tremendous progress.

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<v Speaker 1>Many people have acknowledged that over the last several months.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a real turnaround. Why do you think then, even

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<v Speaker 1>with this fantastic progress with vaccinations across the continent, the

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<v Speaker 1>Europe has struggled to get the United States to reciprocate

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<v Speaker 1>on things like travel. Why stand being so difficult? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's I would say a bit of general tendency. We

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<v Speaker 1>see during the pandemics that we have lots of disruption

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<v Speaker 1>for travel. Actually we had it within the EU, but

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<v Speaker 1>also there we managed by now to set up what

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<v Speaker 1>we call EU the just All COVID Certificate, where people

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<v Speaker 1>which how proof of vaccination or negative test or which

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<v Speaker 1>how process they actually had had COVID can travel without

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<v Speaker 1>additional restrictions. Within the U. Many countries in use neighborhood

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<v Speaker 1>are using this system. But of course, as regards other countries,

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<v Speaker 1>they take all their own decisions, and we're still in

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<v Speaker 1>continued dialogue also with us because of these things that

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<v Speaker 1>the epidological situation would permit actually to lift travel restrictions

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<v Speaker 1>also from the U S side, you've code it continued dialogue.

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<v Speaker 1>Characterize how that dialogue is going for us right now?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you making progress? Are you further along now than

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<v Speaker 1>you were a month ago? Or were coming nowhere? Well? Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's at the end of the day decision for US

0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:54.559
<v Speaker 1>to take which third country residents they are admitting in

0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>the country. The point we are making that if you

0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:01.400
<v Speaker 1>look at the epidomological data also as a reliability of

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 1>the COVID certificates which EU is providing to its citizens,

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.359
<v Speaker 1>this is a good basis actually to leave those restrictions.

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.199
<v Speaker 1>How different is it dealing with President Biden and President

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:15.080
<v Speaker 1>Trump on issues like this as well as issues on trade.

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Well as regards trade, it must be said that we

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>are now on a much more positive track with by

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 1>the administration. Already several months ago we resolved longstanding Herbus

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Boeing dispute. We are now working on resolving another trade

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.720
<v Speaker 1>irritant from Trump era, which is still and aluminium tariffs.

0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 1>And later this month we will be launching a Trade

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>and Technology Council where we will be cooperating in these

0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 1>areas of trade of new and emerging technologies. And we

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.800
<v Speaker 1>think it's important that EU and US, being strategic allies,

0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.680
<v Speaker 1>being like minded partners, actually work together on those issues.

0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:03.120
<v Speaker 1>So what's the main point of agreement between the European

0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:05.600
<v Speaker 1>Union and the United States when it comes to China

0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 1>and the trade negotiations there? Well? As regards China, we

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 1>share a number of concerns as regards China's socio economic model,

0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:24.080
<v Speaker 1>like roll of state on enterprises and their competitive neutrality,

0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 1>industrial subsidies and transparency as this UH forced technology transfers

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>intellectual property rights. So also there we agreed already in

0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 1>the EU US summits that will be cooperating closely and

0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:44.600
<v Speaker 1>seek common approaches boss bilateral but also for example, in

0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>the context of the foremost of all trade organization. Let's

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.000
<v Speaker 1>hope we can make some progress. Commissioner always fantasy to

0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:51.320
<v Speaker 1>catch up with you, sir, Thank you for your time

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 1>this morning. That's the get there, get my words out.

0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:58.400
<v Speaker 1>Varis Dombroski is there. The European Commission Executive Vice President

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:08.160
<v Speaker 1>and Commissioner of Trade in an important and different interview

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:12.560
<v Speaker 1>here not nitpicking each moment about monetary policy and the

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>politics of Europe, and that would be with David Rubinstein,

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:19.160
<v Speaker 1>peer to peer conversations. David joins us right now. What

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:24.960
<v Speaker 1>was it like, David speaking to this different leguard. I've

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:26.880
<v Speaker 1>known her for quite a while when she was ahead

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>of the i m F. She was the first woman

0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:30.160
<v Speaker 1>to be the head of the IMF, and she had

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>quite an important impact on the i m F, and

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>people were i'd say disappointed at the i mm that

0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:38.800
<v Speaker 1>she chose to leave, because after two terms she could

0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.560
<v Speaker 1>have had a third term. But I think Angela Merkel

0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 1>really thought that a more important job for her was

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>to come back to Europe and run the European Central Bank,

0:16:46.920 --> 0:16:49.240
<v Speaker 1>where she's the first woman to do that, and she's

0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 1>had a gigantic impact on the European Central Bank in

0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:54.200
<v Speaker 1>just the two years that she's been there, a lot

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.800
<v Speaker 1>of criticisms, a lot of compare and contrast to the

0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 1>previous leader. Mr Drogging occupied in Italy. Did you speak

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.879
<v Speaker 1>to her of the interior politics of front for her

0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:11.160
<v Speaker 1>greeting and where she is right now. Well, I think

0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.399
<v Speaker 1>she feels she's got a pretty good grip on the

0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.240
<v Speaker 1>European Central Bank. She's an articulated policies which the bank

0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 1>is pursuing, so they have a very clear policy now

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.719
<v Speaker 1>of getting to two percent inflation. That's their real target,

0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.639
<v Speaker 1>not close to two percent, but two percent, which is

0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:29.359
<v Speaker 1>not easy to do, but that's what she wants to do.

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 1>She's also made it clear that the economic package they

0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.440
<v Speaker 1>put together to deal with COVID has worked, and maybe

0:17:35.480 --> 0:17:38.040
<v Speaker 1>better than they thought, because as you heard earlier, she

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>now thinks that they will recover to the gp GDP

0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.399
<v Speaker 1>levels they had before COVID in Europe by the end

0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:45.240
<v Speaker 1>of this year, which is really more than the United

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 1>States is doing. Perhaps one of the bigger challenges that

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:50.080
<v Speaker 1>she has that the Federal Reserve does not is that

0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:52.560
<v Speaker 1>she's got a bit of a harder job hurting cats

0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 1>than the Federal Reserve, which tends to remain a bit

0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 1>more cohesive. Did she talk at all about trying to

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:02.520
<v Speaker 1>keep a consistent message. It's such a tenuous moment. Yes,

0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:04.760
<v Speaker 1>For those who aren't familiar with the European Central Bank,

0:18:04.840 --> 0:18:07.800
<v Speaker 1>it's not like the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.880
<v Speaker 1>in charge of monetary policy, but we have one part

0:18:10.960 --> 0:18:13.680
<v Speaker 1>of the one country that does physical policy. So we

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.159
<v Speaker 1>have a physical policy for the United States and a

0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.560
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy in Europe. You have one monetary policy that

0:18:19.640 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 1>the e c B does, but each of the countries

0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:24.679
<v Speaker 1>have their own physical policy. So it is like hurting cats.

0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 1>I uh, you know, said to her, somewhat facetiously, her

0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>background as a national synchronized swimmer was that helpful in

0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 1>enabling her to figure out how to get people to

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:38.040
<v Speaker 1>work together, because she was a great synchronized swimmer. And

0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 1>she now has an interesting situation where she has twenty

0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:43.480
<v Speaker 1>three central bankers of each of the countries and she

0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 1>has to preside over that. Interestingly, she said, in many

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.359
<v Speaker 1>of these meetings there are twenty two men and one woman.

0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.000
<v Speaker 1>And she said there's still amount of discrimination in Europe,

0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 1>even though she's got this very lofty position. Uh, there

0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:57.679
<v Speaker 1>aren't that many women sitting in the meetings with her.

0:18:58.200 --> 0:19:02.000
<v Speaker 1>Do you think that she likes her job, David, Yes, Um,

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:05.400
<v Speaker 1>she is a very very smart person who actually came

0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:07.720
<v Speaker 1>from France, United States for high school for a year,

0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:10.280
<v Speaker 1>and then she became the head of a major global

0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:12.320
<v Speaker 1>offer and the first woman to do that. I think

0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:15.520
<v Speaker 1>she relishes it in part because we didn't really talk

0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.439
<v Speaker 1>about this much on the air. But she now has

0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:19.720
<v Speaker 1>grand children and they live in Europe, and so she

0:19:19.800 --> 0:19:21.760
<v Speaker 1>has a chance to be back in Europe, and so

0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:24.120
<v Speaker 1>I think after living United States for about ten years,

0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.480
<v Speaker 1>she was ready to move back to Europe. David, we

0:19:26.600 --> 0:19:29.280
<v Speaker 1>have headlines at this moment, and I would be honored

0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.200
<v Speaker 1>to have your perspective of the final agreement of the

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:37.879
<v Speaker 1>Canadian Pacific Company with Kansas City Southern. And as you know,

0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:43.120
<v Speaker 1>this is involved to Canadian giants, Canadian Pacific, in Canadian National,

0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:47.840
<v Speaker 1>in the US company as well strategic if you will,

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:51.000
<v Speaker 1>in railroads. Is this what is to come in this

0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:57.080
<v Speaker 1>odd economy we're in, true? More mergers in combinations. I

0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.840
<v Speaker 1>do think you're going to see more mergers because people

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 1>fairly Uh. I would say, not inflated, but high value stocks.

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 1>And when you have high value stocks, you can use

0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.000
<v Speaker 1>that as a really good currency to make acquisitions. And

0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:12.679
<v Speaker 1>I would say the anti trust authorities in the United States, UH,

0:20:12.840 --> 0:20:15.159
<v Speaker 1>they try to deal with some of these problems, but

0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 1>very few major acquisitions are being blocked right now, and

0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 1>in fact, there is no an trust official in charge

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.479
<v Speaker 1>of the Justice Department because no one's been confirmed yet,

0:20:24.720 --> 0:20:26.479
<v Speaker 1>and so it's gonna take a while before I think

0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:28.840
<v Speaker 1>you've got the n I trust authorities catching up to

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:31.080
<v Speaker 1>some of the all the acquisitions that are being done.

0:20:31.119 --> 0:20:33.680
<v Speaker 1>Maybe they're good acquisitions, but I don't know whether we

0:20:33.800 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>have the authorities yet. Really is focused on some of these.

0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:41.679
<v Speaker 1>Is private capital, private equity? How has that change transactions

0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:45.439
<v Speaker 1>and combinations? It seems like a new player has added

0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:49.960
<v Speaker 1>ever more money, more capital to the fire. Well, it's

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 1>not only private equity firms, but you now have UH

0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:55.760
<v Speaker 1>sovereign wealth funds which you're doing deals directly. And you

0:20:56.160 --> 0:21:00.119
<v Speaker 1>also have a new phenomenon family offices. Family office as

0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 1>are doing deals directly as well. So it seems as

0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:05.280
<v Speaker 1>if there's not a lack of capital, plenty of deal

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 1>doing is going on. And until the FED raises interest

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.600
<v Speaker 1>rates and until the economy slows down, I don't think

0:21:11.600 --> 0:21:13.040
<v Speaker 1>you're going to see any change in what we now

0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.520
<v Speaker 1>see in terms of lots of deals being done, lots

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:18.639
<v Speaker 1>of investments at relatively high valuations. All right, before we

0:21:18.720 --> 0:21:21.480
<v Speaker 1>let you go, David, you did ask Christine Leguard about

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:23.680
<v Speaker 1>working from home and when they actually start to gather

0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:27.040
<v Speaker 1>as a group. And I'm wondering, from your perspective, what's

0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>the new September we've been talking about when people will

0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>get back to the offices. For Carlisle Group, for the

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 1>companies that you speak with, when is the new time

0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:40.920
<v Speaker 1>to return. Well, at Carlisle, we have reopened our offices

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:44.440
<v Speaker 1>UM after Labor Day, but we're not saying that everybody

0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:47.159
<v Speaker 1>has to come in, because everybody has to deal with

0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:51.040
<v Speaker 1>their own situation. We do think, uh in the United States,

0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:53.680
<v Speaker 1>that people will be coming back to work, but I

0:21:53.720 --> 0:21:55.680
<v Speaker 1>don't think you're gonna see anywhere in the United States

0:21:55.720 --> 0:21:58.199
<v Speaker 1>people coming back to work five days a week at

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:00.960
<v Speaker 1>quite the pace they did before. Some firms will do

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:03.040
<v Speaker 1>four days a week, maybe three days a week. In

0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:05.959
<v Speaker 1>terms of asking their people to come in, Carlos policy

0:22:06.040 --> 0:22:08.240
<v Speaker 1>is to have people come in a number of days

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.880
<v Speaker 1>a week, but we're not selling them exactly what days

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:13.399
<v Speaker 1>they have to come in UM. But each company has

0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:15.880
<v Speaker 1>to feel it its own way. I don't think we're

0:22:15.920 --> 0:22:18.040
<v Speaker 1>going back to the way we used to work, which

0:22:18.119 --> 0:22:21.040
<v Speaker 1>is five days a week, nine to five, And I

0:22:21.119 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 1>just don't think that's gonna happen in the office now,

0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 1>David again, congratulations on your new book, that piece with

0:22:25.680 --> 0:22:28.199
<v Speaker 1>Ken Burns. Of course, out with Muhammad Ali right now.

0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 1>Mr Rubinstein, the Carlisle Group, co founder, co chairman, peer

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:36.200
<v Speaker 1>to peer conversations with Christine Legard. This is the Bloomberg

0:22:36.280 --> 0:22:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays from

0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:44.040
<v Speaker 1>seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and on

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:48.359
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am for

0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:53.520
<v Speaker 1>insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

0:22:54.040 --> 0:22:58.679
<v Speaker 1>And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple podcast, SoundCloud,

0:22:58.880 --> 0:23:02.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.080
<v Speaker 1>Tom keene In. This is Bloomer