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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second. Hello and welcome the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast. UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zerrilla, joined today

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Speaker 2: by Billy Ward to help you break down Saturday's UFC

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Speaker 2: card at the Apex. Fullfight card going down at four

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Speaker 2: pm Eastern, Main card seven pm Eastern. And if you'd

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Speaker 2: like to tail some of the bets that we discussed

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Speaker 2: on today's show, make sure to find the quick slip

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Speaker 2: links both in the podcast and the video description, or

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Speaker 2: go to Actionnework dot com slash bet now.

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Speaker 3: Main event.

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Speaker 2: Roman de Leeds coming in at about a plus two

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Speaker 2: forty underdog line against Anthony Fluffy Hernandez at three twenty

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Speaker 2: middleweight division, five round main event in the Apex fight

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Speaker 2: around minus two twenty and inside the distance plus one

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Speaker 2: seventy five to go to a decision. My read here

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Speaker 2: generally speaking, the leads early or Fluffy late. The inflection

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Speaker 2: point at which the fight becomes late could be as

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Speaker 2: early for me as a round and a half into

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Speaker 2: the fight. Roman, the bigger man two inches taller, one

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Speaker 2: inch reach advantage, is physically stronger as well but I

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Speaker 2: think if he wants to win the fighter, if he's

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Speaker 2: going to win the fight, he has to hurt Fluffy

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Speaker 2: to the body early, get him backing up, get him

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Speaker 2: to stop initiating the forward pressure, and eventually putting the

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Speaker 2: Leads into the washing machine. Because once Fluffy gets you

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Speaker 2: in his grasp, that is generally the beginning and the

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Speaker 2: end of the fight for you as his opponent. He

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Speaker 2: re wrestles and re wrestles and re wrestles until you're

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Speaker 2: having a heart attack underneath him. Home make mistakes, He'll

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Speaker 2: fall off top, try to go for submissions, trying to

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Speaker 2: get the back, trying to advance position, allow his opponents

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Speaker 2: to scramble out from underneath him. But he will just

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Speaker 2: matt return you or re wrestle you until he gets

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Speaker 2: you back on the ground and you are completely and

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Speaker 2: utterly exhausted. So I do think the Leads has a

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Speaker 2: potential physicality edge here. Early could potentially deny the takedowns

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Speaker 2: or just hurt Hernandez on the feet, But once Hernandez

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Speaker 2: is able to get his style implemented, I think that

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Speaker 2: is the beginning of the end for the Leads. I

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Speaker 2: think there's a couple of ways you could express an

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Speaker 2: opinion in terms of betting on this fight. The first

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Speaker 2: would be an under ladder the under four and a half,

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Speaker 2: three and a half, two and a half, one and

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Speaker 2: a half. I think the under one and a half

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Speaker 2: is as high as plus three hundred, so you could

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Speaker 2: just ladder the unders all the way down. The Leads

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Speaker 2: wins early, you hit all the bets. Fernandez wins in

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Speaker 2: halfway through round two, just before the halfway mark or

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Speaker 2: brown two, you win all bets. If he wins later

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Speaker 2: in round two. Early in round three, you win three

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Speaker 2: of the four bets. I think that could be an

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Speaker 2: approach to take. You can also potentially take the under

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Speaker 2: one and a half and then bet Hernandez's late props,

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Speaker 2: so you have the under one and a half as

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Speaker 2: a potential hedge in case the Leads does knock him

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Speaker 2: out early, and then you get Hernandez Round three, round four,

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Speaker 2: round five.

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Speaker 3: Each in about ten to one to twelve to one.

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Speaker 2: There wasn't a big spread on those round props, but

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Speaker 2: you could structure those out Hernandez to win three four

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Speaker 2: five with an under one and a half and an

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Speaker 2: under two and a half. The same game parlay angle

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Speaker 2: of the Hernandez and over one and a half was

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Speaker 2: used to about minus one seventy five. Wasn't too interested

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Speaker 2: in laying the juice on him to win after the

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Speaker 2: seven and a half minute mark, even though I think

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Speaker 2: that is his likeliest win condition for the fight.

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Speaker 3: So a couple of different approaches.

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Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna have an under one and a half ticket,

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Speaker 2: maybe an under two and a half ticket, and then

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Speaker 2: Hernandez three four five props. Billy, you're leaning to the

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Speaker 2: leads potentially in round one here, but then you like

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Speaker 2: Fluffy is a live bet. I also love Fluffy as

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Speaker 2: a live bet. After about five minutes you may get

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Speaker 2: the peak price at that point, but if he's landing

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Speaker 2: takedowns in round one, the leads is going to gas

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Speaker 2: eventually and there will be no entry point on Fluffy

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Speaker 2: because he'll be minus five hundred after the first round.

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Speaker 2: So how aside from the leads round one into Fluffy live,

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Speaker 2: any alternative ways you would consider betting on this fight?

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Speaker 2: And then in terms of my breakdown, what did that mess?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? The breakdown perfect.

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Speaker 4: The only thing I would add is Roman de Leeds

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Speaker 4: is a better technical grappler than Anthony Hernandez, like if

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Speaker 4: you watch his tape, you know he went to ADCC,

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Speaker 4: goes for cool calf slicers.

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Speaker 3: You know, just has a much.

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Speaker 4: Like broader range of options or weapons or tools however

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Speaker 4: you want to phrase that, that he's able to use.

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Speaker 4: But so was Brendan Allen, and so was like half

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Speaker 4: the people Hernandez fights. And it's a lot like Rob

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Speaker 4: de Volashpheli at one thirty five or like this guy

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Speaker 4: should be better side and the margamte off whoever. But

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Speaker 4: if you just keep doing stuff until they get tired,

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Speaker 4: eventually it's gonna work and nobody can keep up with them.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, that's the one thing I would say is

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Speaker 4: I was I keep watching tape on Anthony Hernandez trying

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Speaker 4: to decide what he's good at other than like cardio,

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Speaker 4: and he's just relentless, like just that kind of pressure.

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Speaker 4: It's weird because he doesn't his shots aren't perfect, he's

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Speaker 4: not especially explosive. He's not hitting me with any cool

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Speaker 4: submissions you haven't seen before. He just keeps coming. So

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Speaker 4: that was interesting but also helps my I think both

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Speaker 4: of the angles I'm on here where if there is

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Speaker 4: grappling early while they're fresh. That's the time that Roman

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Speaker 4: Deledes could find a submission is early in the fight,

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Speaker 4: while he's still fresh and they're less sweaty, all that stuff.

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Speaker 4: And then also that gives a better shot that we

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Speaker 4: actually get a good price on Fluffy live because maybe

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Speaker 4: he doesn't shoot early, maybe Deleeds does use his size

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Speaker 4: and strength to beat him up on the feet. On

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Speaker 4: the feet, it's kind of reminiscent of the Michelle Paid

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Speaker 4: To fight, where Delize is dangerous early can hurt him.

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Speaker 4: If he doesn't get him out of there, it's just

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Speaker 4: going to get slowly worse for him. But we saw

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Speaker 4: that in Hernandez's previous five round fight. I believe Peida

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Speaker 4: won the first round in that fight before getting kidished

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Speaker 4: in the fit. So the way I'm actually betting it

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Speaker 4: is not just to leads a straight up round one.

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Speaker 4: There's a new bat I found. I don't know how

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Speaker 4: long they've been doing this at draftings. You can bet

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Speaker 4: on the round one money line and then it gets

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Speaker 4: refunded if the beout. If the fight doesn't end in

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Speaker 4: round one, the lead that is plus one sixty five

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Speaker 4: on that the finish only money line, he's plus two hundred.

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Speaker 4: Those should be a lot like farther apart stereotypically right,

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Speaker 4: Like there's four more rounds, you'd think there'd be a

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Speaker 4: likelier chance. Most of his upside is in round one.

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Speaker 4: If it doesn't happen, you get that back back, no harm,

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Speaker 4: no foul, and then if you can get a better price,

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Speaker 4: I'm fluffy after that, live great. If not, when you

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Speaker 4: just watch the rest of the fight and enjoy it.

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Speaker 4: Nothing gatt nothing lost. That's how I'm structuring it here,

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Speaker 4: just because I think if he's going to win, that's

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Speaker 4: when it's likely to happen. I don't see Hernandez getting

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Speaker 4: a round one finish because he has to make you

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Speaker 4: tired first, especially against a grappler like the Leads, who's

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Speaker 4: not just gonna get rear naked in the first round

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Speaker 4: for no reason. So like that could very well end

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Speaker 4: up with me not having any action on this fight

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Speaker 4: depending on how it breaks. But I'd rather that than

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Speaker 4: having bets that I don't like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that de leads round one money line. I would

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Speaker 2: say if either fighter should be favored to win in

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Speaker 2: round one, it should probably Roman de Leeds, So getting

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Speaker 2: plus one sixty five, I think certainly enticing and likely

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Speaker 2: to get it refunded. I mean just five percent of chances,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, if the leads wins, I think it's in

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Speaker 2: the first seven and a half minutes of this fight,

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Speaker 2: and then fluffy at any point after that move on

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Speaker 2: to a fight of the night, the comin event between

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Speaker 2: Steve Erseg and ode Osborne. Erseg coming in as about

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Speaker 2: a minus five fifty favorite, despite dropping three consecutive fights,

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Speaker 2: albeit against top level fighters vision all former champions or

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Speaker 2: title challengers in Pantosia and KKF and Brandon Marino Oda

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Speaker 2: been fighting on the first prelim a lot now going

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Speaker 2: up to a co main event speaks to the quality

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Speaker 2: of these APEX cards, But I actually think Oday has

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Speaker 2: path to victory. Here I'll layout a few reasons why

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Speaker 2: I would be concerned about Erseg this weekend number one.

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Speaker 2: Two fights removed from that knockout loss to kk IF,

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Speaker 2: also has just fought a lot recently, taken a bunch

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Speaker 2: of damage, and has not taken time off. Another though

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Speaker 2: main reason here is the travel Oday trains in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 2: Steve Urseg has to travel all the way from Perth

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Speaker 2: in Australia to get to Las Vegas for this fight,

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Speaker 2: and it's not as simple as flying to Sydney, or

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Speaker 2: not as simple as flying from Sydney to Las Vegas.

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Speaker 2: I believe he has to travel from Perth to Sydney,

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Speaker 2: which is like an eight hour flight, and then has

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Speaker 2: to travel all the way from Sydney or Melbourne. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure where he flies out of, but he literally

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Speaker 2: has to fly like across Australia and then do an

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Speaker 2: extra flight all the way to Las Vegas. So it's

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Speaker 2: almost a day's worth of travel for Steve Urseg just

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Speaker 2: to get to Las Vegas for this fight. Never mind

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Speaker 2: the weight cutting, all that extra stuff on top of it,

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Speaker 2: so the body clock stuff could be a mess for

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Speaker 2: Erseg here. And then last, this fight is up a division.

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Speaker 2: These guys are competing at bandam weight instead of fly weight.

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Speaker 2: I think that helps Oday's cardio immensely. He's typically a

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Speaker 2: guy who is a fast starter and then struggles the

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Speaker 2: longer the fight goes. That said, moving up to bandon

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Speaker 2: weight should also help ersings chin because the chin, if

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Speaker 2: it is a concern at all, should be a little

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Speaker 2: bit more durable. Not cutting weight to one twenty five

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Speaker 2: and instead taking the fight at one thirty five. But ultimately,

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Speaker 2: I think with Oday's cardio looking a little bit better,

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Speaker 2: with Ursig's chin potentially being helped out a little bit,

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Speaker 2: I like this fight to go all fifteen minutes, and

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Speaker 2: I like Oda to make it a little bit more

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Speaker 2: competitive than the money line suggests. So the fight goes

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Speaker 2: to decision at plus one sixty five. I projected this

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Speaker 2: closer to plus one twenty five. Bandam weight fights go

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Speaker 2: to decision at about a fifty eight percent clip in

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Speaker 2: three round fights, so getting nice plus money there, and

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Speaker 2: then Oda I made closer to plus three fifty. You're

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Speaker 2: getting as high as plus four to thirty. I think

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Speaker 2: he could take a small stab on his money line

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Speaker 2: and then potentially hedg you out on ersa live. ODI's

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Speaker 2: gonna have a five inch reach advantage here. I do

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Speaker 2: think he will be competitive, especially if he does not

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Speaker 2: fade down the stretch, given the fact that he doesn't

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Speaker 2: have to cut weight to get to one thirty five. So, Billy,

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Speaker 2: I know you're on the other side here. You do

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Speaker 2: like Erseg to finish, but you actually prefer Erseg to

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Speaker 2: grapple and land at least one takedown if not two

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Speaker 2: or more in this fight. So tell me about the

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Speaker 2: line movement on that prop where you like it too currently,

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Speaker 2: and then any other wagers you got for this one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean my thesis here is that Steve Verseeg

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Speaker 4: just has to grapple here because he needs to win.

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Speaker 4: He's oh in three. Yes, it was high level competition.

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Speaker 4: Not a lot of guys get the stick around on

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Speaker 4: four straight losses. I don't think he has the name recognition,

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Speaker 4: or the fanfare or whatever to do that. They're trying

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Speaker 4: to make that happen. First, they gave him him the

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Speaker 4: song Park. Now it's today Osbourne, Oda is stepping in

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Speaker 4: on short notice. My guess is Erseg has been in

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Speaker 4: America for a couple like since this fight was planned.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they flew him home once Park got

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Speaker 4: moved off this card. I don't know that for sure,

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Speaker 4: Like it's hard to tell exactly, but that would be

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Speaker 4: my assumption. We think if Steve Versag as a striker generally,

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Speaker 4: because that's how he started his UFC career. He was

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Speaker 4: a national champion wrestler in Australia, growing up pretty high

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Speaker 4: level jiu jitsu guy. Most of his pre UFC wins

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Speaker 4: were actually submissions, not strikes.

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Speaker 3: He has yeah, six.

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Speaker 4: Submission wins before he got to the UFC one knockout

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Speaker 4: in the UFC one knockout prior, so that was his

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Speaker 4: game plan before this. I think he probably correctly assumed

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Speaker 4: that by standing and trading and knocking some people out

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Speaker 4: it'd be a faster rise to a title and to

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Speaker 4: the fanfare that you need to make money in the UFC.

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Speaker 4: But we're past that now we just have to win fights.

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Speaker 4: Oday also a high school wrestler. I think he wrestled

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Speaker 4: one year in college, but then the college was shut

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Speaker 4: down and it was a whole thing. A better striker

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Speaker 4: oda when he gets put on his back, he likes

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Speaker 4: to just stay in close guard and look for submissions

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Speaker 4: and try to hit you from the bottom. And then

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Speaker 4: when he does go to get up, he just immediately

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Speaker 4: goes belly down. So if you have any kind of

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Speaker 4: back taking ability, it's going to be there. My first

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Speaker 4: bet on this is ersag by submission at plus one

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Speaker 4: eighty five. I was hoping we get better lines on that.

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Speaker 4: I think everyone has kind of came to the same

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Speaker 4: conclusion I did about how Ersig's gonna approach this fight. Unfortunately.

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Speaker 4: The one I really like, and it's not available right now,

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Speaker 4: is ersig over one and a half takedowns. It was

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Speaker 4: plus one thirty at DraftKings, then they moved it to

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Speaker 4: over a half takedown and around minus three hundred. As

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Speaker 4: we're recording this, it's not available. I would make his

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Speaker 4: takedown like his median is right around too. I think

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Speaker 4: he gets a second one. Some of those Matt returns

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Speaker 4: from the back are often scored as takedowns. You mentioned

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Speaker 4: that with Anthony Hernandez. That's how he got ten scored

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Speaker 4: against Heda. If you can get over one and a

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Speaker 4: half at plus money, I would definitely take that.

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Speaker 3: Over a half.

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Speaker 4: I mean a fair line is probably like minus three

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Speaker 4: fifty or something like that. I don't necessarily want to

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Speaker 4: lay that kind of juice, but over a half almost

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Speaker 4: feels like as close to free money as we can get,

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Speaker 4: just not a lot of money. So those are my favorites.

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Speaker 4: Keep an eye on the books that tend to offer those,

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Speaker 4: or if you're playing on pick them sites. I really

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Speaker 4: like his overtakedowns for you know, trying to build those

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Speaker 4: props as well. I'm sorry, we're hi if you're playing

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Speaker 4: on a pick them site.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, hire not over, got to be very clear and

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Speaker 2: distinct about that. Get to our favorite underdogs in a moment.

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Speaker 2: But first football season tier folks, and we've got some

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Speaker 2: only with Action Pro you get real time pick alerts

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Speaker 2: for me and the entire Action Network team of experts.

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Speaker 2: Plus you can access Action Pro projections power by Sean

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Speaker 2: Hopefully we can win you some underdog money to pay

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Speaker 2: for your Action Pro subscription with the first of four

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Speaker 2: that we're going to talk about here first of four fights,

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Speaker 2: going to toss it to you, Billy, to discuss Julius

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Speaker 2: Walker against Rafael Sirkaria. Walker coming in at about a

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Speaker 2: minus seven hundred price tag, Sir Carria plus five hundred.

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Speaker 2: Walker in a potential trap spot here, I will say,

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Speaker 2: because he's the typical guy who overperformed as an underdog

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Speaker 2: in his UFCA debut, was very competitive with Alonso Metfield

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Speaker 2: at plus two hundred. I believe on short notice. Also

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Speaker 2: relatively an experience, just seven professional fights, I believe Sirkaria

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Speaker 2: has doubled the number of pro fights, but he was

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Speaker 2: knocked out in the first round in each of his

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Speaker 2: two UFC bouts against Ebo Aslan and Madesta Dakowski. Is

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Speaker 2: just about three minutes of fight time combined in those matchups.

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Speaker 2: So what do you see in Circaria that lets you

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Speaker 2: to believe he could take down Julius Walker this weekend?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the biggest thing is what you reference

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Speaker 4: at the beginning. It's the classic spot of a guy

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Speaker 4: comes in on short notice, wins a moral victory but

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Speaker 4: not an actual victory. Also one like if my memory

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Speaker 4: serves the least deserving fight of the night. Ever, on

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Speaker 4: that card was Metfield versus Walker. I think that was

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Speaker 4: the really bad one. I'd have to go back the

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Speaker 4: whole card with him not doing right now. Yeah, and yes,

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Speaker 4: it's meaningful that you were able to remain competitive with

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Speaker 4: like a UFC veteran like Manifold, but he didn't win,

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Speaker 4: And I thought, even though it was a split decision,

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Speaker 4: I thought thirty twenty seven Menifield was probably a more

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Speaker 4: accurate scorecard than twenty nine to twenty eight Walker, Like,

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Speaker 4: I don't really see how anyone scored that fight for him.

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Speaker 4: Sir Korea was really good before he got to the UFC.

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Speaker 4: He was eleven and zero who finished almost everyone he fought,

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Speaker 4: and then his chines totally fell apart for some reason.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what would cause that, or if it's

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Speaker 4: just a coincidents. The guys he fought Ebo Aslin in particular,

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Speaker 4: but butdes Buskowskiss both pretty powerful strikers, both guys who

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Speaker 4: can hurt you.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: We haven't seen that from Julius Walker, at least at

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Speaker 4: a UOC level. He might have that, but it's not

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Speaker 4: like he dropped Menifield or really had him. You know

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Speaker 4: super hurt in that fight, landed a decent amount of volume.

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Speaker 4: If Sirkarri can survive that, I think he's the more

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Speaker 4: technical fighter. I think he's might even be the harder hitter.

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Speaker 4: We're just we're putting a lot of faith in Walker

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Speaker 4: to be able to turn the lights out just because

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Speaker 4: the guy got knocked out a couple of times. It's

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Speaker 4: plus five hundred. I don't think Sircreia is gonna win.

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Speaker 4: I think he probably gets knocked out again, and he's

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Speaker 4: just one of those guys. But given the odds, I

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Speaker 4: think he has a much better than twenty percent chance

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Speaker 4: or whatever of being more durable or just being a coincidence.

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Speaker 3: Or any of those things. And he's taken.

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Speaker 4: A seven months since the last knockout. I'd like to

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Speaker 4: see it be a little bit longer, but that's that's

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Speaker 4: also a reasonable amount of time where I'm not extremely

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Speaker 4: worried about it.

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Speaker 2: Let's discuss the first fight the card, the one added latest.

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Speaker 2: That's Cody Brundage against Eric mcconago up at light heavyweight.

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Speaker 2: Brundage not having to cut as much weight as he

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Speaker 2: typically does to get to middleweight, where he has absolutely

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Speaker 2: terrible cardio, but in the same respective never thought he

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Speaker 2: was particularly in shape at middleweight, and if he is

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Speaker 2: moving up to light heavyweight here, I don't really expect

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Speaker 2: much improvement in the gas night now. Cody Brundges has

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Speaker 2: had the most insanity run in the UFC. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to go back briefly through his recent fight history because

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Speaker 2: it's absolutely hysterical if you're not aware of his recent

360
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Speaker 2: technical decision loss to Munster. Abdul Malik was overturned from

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Speaker 2: a technical decision win for of Dulmahlik to a draw.

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Speaker 2: Joining Brundage's recent run of good luck where he had

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Speaker 2: a no contest declared against Abdul Razak Alissan because he

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Speaker 2: was elbow to the back of the head. He got

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Speaker 2: Jacob malcun disqualified for the same strike in illegal elbow

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Speaker 2: to the back of the head and his wins or

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Speaker 2: his other fights. He was the first man to Takenickel

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Speaker 2: over one and a half rounds. He has that slam

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Speaker 2: TKO over Zachary Reeves, and he also fought to the

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Speaker 2: death with Julian Marquez where he was knocked down basically

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Speaker 2: seemed out at two different points. Reugh kept it going

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Speaker 2: and then he got back up and landed a fight

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Speaker 2: ending blow on Marquez. So realistically, Cody Brundage could be

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Speaker 2: like oh and six or oh and seven in his

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Speaker 2: past six fights. Realistically or actually in actuality, I believe

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Speaker 2: he is two three and one two two and one

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Speaker 2: over that span.

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Speaker 3: Just one of the.

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Speaker 2: Most remarkable UFC careers ever. This is a guy who

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Speaker 2: probably should have been cut two years ago, but because

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Speaker 2: he refuses to lose, or the judges allow him to

382
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Speaker 2: refuse to lose a third consecutive fight, the UFC has

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Speaker 2: yet to cut him. It's not like his fights other

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Speaker 2: than that Marquez fight are particularly exciting either, but the

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Speaker 2: typical flow of a Cody Brundage fight, he tends to

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Speaker 2: have success early and then fade the longer his fights extend. Now,

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Speaker 2: we do not have prop lines out yet for this

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Speaker 2: fight because it was the last one added to the card.

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Speaker 2: I believe the under one and a half is around

390
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Speaker 2: minus one fifty. Uh might be might be minus one

391
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 2: fifty to the over. Either way, I think the I

392
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Speaker 2: think the I'm the under. It's on the it's minus

393
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Speaker 2: one thirty to the under. I would probably lean over there,

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Speaker 2: but what I prefer is Meconico round two and round three.

395
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,199
Speaker 2: When those come out, I'm hoping you'll get eight to

396
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Speaker 2: one twelve to one respectively.

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Speaker 3: They are out. What are they? What are they like?

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Speaker 4: Just eight to one on round two as you were

399
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,359
Speaker 4: hoping for, and fourteen to one round three?

400
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 3: Good enough? Right along your friend?

401
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, yep, yeah, I think I think seven to one

402
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 2: and ten to one on those are fine.

403
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 3: Uh, you can win.

404
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 2: Let's put it this way, if you could put point

405
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 2: one on each of them, you could win over a

406
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 2: half a unit on still profit over a half a

407
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,640
Speaker 2: unit on round two, and also bet the round three

408
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Speaker 2: I think that's fine. So six to one and let's

409
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Speaker 2: say a seven to one respectively, I would bet the

410
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Speaker 2: round two and round three props for mcconago in addition

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Speaker 2: to a live bet. I think he's going to handle

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Speaker 2: and fill out for the division a little bit better

413
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Speaker 2: than Brundage does. He will have a five inch reach

414
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Speaker 2: advantage here. Less experience doesn't have the grappling upside, but

415
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Speaker 2: I do not see Brundage wrestling successfully for more than

416
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Speaker 2: about five to seven minutes. Somconical Live meconic A Round

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Speaker 2: two round three, and very fortunate Billy with the poll

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Speaker 2: on the round two and round three props.

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Speaker 3: Really, as you were speaking.

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Speaker 2: Just unbelievable. I checked right before the show and they

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Speaker 2: weren't out yet, so that the timing is very fortunate.

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Speaker 2: Weighans here not for about another forty five minutes or so,

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Speaker 2: so no knowledge as to wait misses yet. No knowledge

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Speaker 2: is to this fight being the last one added. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it doesn't even go off.

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Speaker 3: We'll see.

427
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Speaker 2: Sometimes these fights that are out of eight, one of

428
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Speaker 2: the guys doesn't make weight, which seems silly because it's

429
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Speaker 2: usually updivision. But yeah, achonical live Mconica, round two, round three.

430
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Speaker 2: Any thoughts for you on Brundage and Aconago, Billy, And

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Speaker 2: if not, we'll move on to our consensus hunderdog, which

432
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: is under a feeling against Tricia Rodriguez.

433
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

434
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 4: Only thing I'll say is I'm pretty sure neither of

435
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 4: these guys are going up to two five.

436
00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 3: It's just they took it on three or four days.

437
00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 4: Notice that's especially in those divisions where there's such a

438
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 4: wide gap, Like that's a really smart thing to do

439
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,160
Speaker 4: to make sure the fight actually does happen. We had

440
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 4: that one poor kid, a few weeks ago, was supposed

441
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 4: to be on the Contender Series. They pulled him up,

442
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 4: couldn't make weight. Now they cut him from everything. It's like, yeah,

443
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 4: he couldn't really say no in that spot. Give the

444
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 4: guys the extra weight class or even a catchweight, which

445
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 4: they don't like to do that.

446
00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the only thing I've had.

447
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure this is not a weight shift for

448
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 4: the West Brundage like five to nine or something. They

449
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,800
Speaker 4: list him at six. He doesn't look six foot, but

450
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 4: he's not a tool fiver. Long story short, so he

451
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 4: better not go up for his career. I guess that

452
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 4: is all I can say. With the Marcos fight, didn't

453
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 4: he get like a break because of a foul or

454
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 4: something in there too when he was about to get

455
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 4: knocked out? So even though there was no fishy ending,

456
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 4: he was greatly helped by the referee.

457
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's the master of knowing the rules. A lot

458
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 2: of guys don't know the rules, don't cheat enough. Cody

459
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: Brundage is taking every rule to his advantage. So fight

460
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 2: IQ eleven out of ten for Cody Brunders, I suppose. Yeah,

461
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 2: there was a brief like foul stoppage, and then he

462
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 2: was allowed to catch his breath and real right when he.

463
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 4: Was about to get knocked out. Wasn't it like he

464
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 4: was right on the Yeah, I didn't. I can't go

465
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 4: back and watch Cody Brundage fights. I won't unless he's

466
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 4: like in the main event of a pay per view

467
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 4: for some reason.

468
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 3: I'm not going to do that. But that was my

469
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: memory of it.

470
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, that Marquez Brundage fight of Cody Brundage's career, that

471
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: was by far the most entertaining about this. Two dudes

472
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 2: just swunging out with each other. I think I had

473
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: the over one and a half. Was extremely dumb in hindsight,

474
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:47,880
Speaker 2: but yeah, fun fight. Speaking of potentially fun fights, Andre

475
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 2: Feeley plus two hundred against Christian Rodriguez at minus two forty.

476
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: Now I will say the reasons why I'd be cautious

477
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 2: about betting Philly here. For one, he is the much

478
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 2: older fight, seven years older and on the wrong side

479
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 2: of the divisional age curve. Average age for the division

480
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: is thirty five, Rodriguez is twenty seven. Philly is sorry.

481
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 2: Average age for the division is thirty two. Philly is

482
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 2: thirty five. Rodriguez is twenty seven, so both on like

483
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 2: the wrong side that you want to see of the

484
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 2: age curve in terms of betting, Philly potentially here, but

485
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 2: this fight is still juiced to go to a decision.

486
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,919
Speaker 2: Philly is extremely well rounded and likely to stay competitive

487
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 2: in all areas of this fight. And frankly I viewed

488
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 2: c rod as a better defensive fighter and a better

489
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:40,840
Speaker 2: resistor and a better guy at defensively grappling, avoiding what

490
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 2: his opponents are trying to execute, and then putting offense

491
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 2: on them as they fade down the stretch in an

492
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 2: extended kickboxing match. I think Philly could be the more

493
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: technical man and the more efficient guys. So Hodro Philly

494
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 2: plus two hundred certainly intriguing. This fight is minus one

495
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 2: eighty to go to a decision rejected that closer to

496
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: minus two forty. I also imagine I show value I

497
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 2: didn't check, but Philly by decision probably a prop that

498
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 2: I show value on as well. Concern here Billy is

499
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 2: that Rodrigue is just gonna be too quick for Phelly

500
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: younger man just too quick. Philly competitive against the older

501
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 2: one forty five ers like Cubb Swanson, but against the

502
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 2: younger guy like Melpi Costa or Rodriguez may just be

503
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:29,120
Speaker 2: outclassed athletically. So what are your thoughts on the relative

504
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: physical state of these two against one another, and then

505
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 2: separate from that the skill set of Philly that could

506
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: potentially keep him competitive here.

507
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Pheelly uses his range very well for

508
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 4: the division, and Sirot is kind of We don't usually

509
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:44,719
Speaker 4: say there's like a tweener between bantam weight and featherweight,

510
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 4: because that's the way he has are so close.

511
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 3: But he's not a big featherweight. He just couldn't make

512
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 3: bantam weight anymore.

513
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 4: He's a guy where you feel like if they could

514
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 4: get him on a better weight cutting program, or if

515
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 4: his body would just really sweat a little bit easier,

516
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 4: because some people don't, he would be a real real

517
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 4: problem at bantam weight. I just don't think he has

518
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 4: it to that level. At featherway, he's still very good,

519
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 4: He's still going to be a guy who sticks around.

520
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 4: He's just not kind of the star he could have

521
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 4: been at bantam weight.

522
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, Philly's I just then interject, Philly's forge is with

523
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: re entreach advantage or neglected to say, the size advantage

524
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 2: for Philly, and I think.

525
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: A quicker striker, like he moves faster on the feet,

526
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 4: you know, hands and feet faster. Sea Rod could grapple,

527
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: but it's hard to grapple guys who are bigger and heavier, right, Like,

528
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 4: you can't make him carry your weight. I think Phelly

529
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 4: probably ends up eight to ten pounds heavier when the

530
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 4: cage door shot. Something like that as well, which is

531
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 4: gary And then on a slightly less serious but like

532
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 4: maybe relevant point, this is just the kind of fight

533
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 4: that Sea Rod loses. Right If you're an undefeated prospect

534
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 4: who everyone expects to be awesome, Sea Rod beats you

535
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: for some reason. If you're just like a random journeyman

536
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 4: like I don't know, Julian Rosa or who's the other one,

537
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 4: Malchi Costa kind of in between. But those are the

538
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 4: guys that Sea Rod historically loses to. I don't know why.

539
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 4: It doesn't seem like there's a good explanation for beating

540
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 4: Austin Bashi, Isaac Dulgary and Cameron Samon and ral Rosis

541
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 4: and then getting guillotined by juicyj. But here we are

542
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 4: so two to one odds on Phey. I like that

543
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 4: Sea Rod could take over late. I think he's the

544
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 4: one thing about his featherweight move that it has really

545
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 4: helped is Cardio has been very, very good, especially against

546
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 4: those prospects who are grappling. Peeley's not really a Cardio

547
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 4: concern though, so I don't think that's too big of

548
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:31,159
Speaker 4: a factor's.

549
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,679
Speaker 2: Move on as we progress from our underdogs into the

550
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 2: prop section of fight that I like the underdog in potentially,

551
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: but we both like to go to a decision at

552
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 2: big plus money. Gabrielle Fernandez out a minus four fifty

553
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: favorite against Julia stoli Urenco at plus three point fifty

554
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,639
Speaker 2: in the woman's flyweight division. Now these fighters are the

555
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 2: same age, same height and reach. Stoli Erinco, though has

556
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: won ten or eleven career wins by round one arm bar.

557
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 2: She's a very direct fighting style. Well, she knows exactly

558
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: what she's trying to do, and if she does not

559
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: execute it, she is unlikely to win her fights. That said,

560
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 2: she does have a five round split decision win from

561
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 2: an Invicta title fight, so she does have the cardio

562
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: to go twenty five minutes. Doesn't necessarily have the durability

563
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 2: if she isn't executing her style to survive all of

564
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 2: the time, but we do like this fight to go

565
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: to a decision more often than the odds suggest divisional average.

566
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 2: Here about sixty one percent overall? Is this woman's flyway

567
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 2: to woman's band weight. I have woman's flyweight five round

568
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 2: this is flylight. Yeah, bandom weight's good decision. I would

569
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 2: have sixty one percent clip flyweights I believe is closer

570
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: to sixty four percent. I projected this right as a

571
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 2: coin flip fifty percent on the nose, and they're giving

572
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: you plus one sixty five, So even a little bit

573
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 2: higher than that, So GTD I think is an interesting bet.

574
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 2: And then Stoli Ranco, I'll probably poke at plus three

575
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 2: point fifty in the event that she does secure that

576
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: round one submission. I think that is the only way

577
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 2: that this one finishes other than Fernandez potentially hiring her

578
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: out and finishing her from top position in round three. So, Billy,

579
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: how do you see this one playing out in a

580
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 2: manner where it goes off fifteen minutes. I'd imagine you

581
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 2: don't expect Fernandez to get submitted, but you think Soli

582
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 2: Enco should do find surviving if she isn't able to

583
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,120
Speaker 2: get that early arm mark.

584
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,199
Speaker 4: Too fine is a strong is a strong way to

585
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 4: phrase it, but we're getting almost two to one odds

586
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 4: on it, so it doesn't have to be too strong

587
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:36,120
Speaker 4: of a feeling. Both of the women involved, their biggest

588
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 4: finishing threat is via submission. Both Fernandez and Soli Ranco.

589
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 4: If they're going to finish, that's likely how it gets done.

590
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 4: If you watch like white belt grappling matches, they all

591
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 4: end in submissions, and when you watch black belts, they

592
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 4: rarely do. It's just one of those things that the

593
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 4: higher the level gets, the less likely either person is

594
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: going to get one. I worry a little bit about

595
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 4: Soli Reenco, like going for submissions off her back and

596
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: getting herself in.

597
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: A bad spot. Outside of that, though, she just fades

598
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 3: really badly down the stretch. It's gonna be one of those.

599
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 4: They both get some takedowns, they scramble around, both lamb

600
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 4: some punches without a ton of power. Don't really see

601
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: either one just getting a big knockout. So we've got

602
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 4: volume striking or a quick submission, neither of which seem

603
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 4: exceedingly likely, especially when we're getting two to one. And

604
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 4: I also wrote down in my notes the divisional average

605
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 4: being much lower than that. I'm just not sure why

606
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: the market has decided this one's have you finished here?

607
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's probably Stolier Rancos like finishing equity normally.

608
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: But she's a huge underdog, so if she's less likely

609
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: to in the fight, you know, what are the actual

610
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 2: chances that she does pull off the armbar? Yeah? I

611
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: think you can maybe even consider her round one subprop

612
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 2: as a potential hedge to the GTD here, but I'll

613
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 2: likely be playing slowly and the GTD together a few

614
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: more fights that we like from a prop perspective, and

615
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 2: then we will wrap things up with two more fights

616
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: from a best bet perspective and cover all twelve fights

617
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 2: on this card. In the irregular portion of the show,

618
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: it's not about Jocelyn Edwards against Priscilla Cashuera and the

619
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: woman's Bandam weight division say very similar dynamic for me

620
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 2: as the Karajosa Cornell fight from last week, where I

621
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: project value on Edwards, fight goes to the decision and

622
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 2: Edwards by decision. I'm just going to wrap all three

623
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 2: of those opinions up into Edwards to win by decision.

624
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: I think Cashuera has less of a chance at surviving

625
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 2: on bottom than Cornell did last week. We've seen Cashuera

626
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 2: both struggle on bottom but then also cheat to try

627
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,720
Speaker 2: to get her way out for bottom. I pokes just

628
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: a chief faller. She is the woman's Cody Brundage. I

629
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 2: guess on this card in terms of fight IQ and

630
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 2: doing what you need to do in order to win.

631
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: But I did make Edwards decision line about minus one

632
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 2: point fifty here, and they're giving you plus one oh eight,

633
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: so I basically have no choice about to fire at

634
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 2: her decision. Prop. If she finishes, Cashua on the mat

635
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 2: will not be shocked. I'd be interested in Edwards on

636
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: the points spread here as well. If she decides to

637
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 2: proactively grapple, I think she should win all three rounds

638
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 2: if not finish the fight. If she does not proactively grapple,

639
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 2: I think Cashweer will be the more gainer strikers. So

640
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 2: if you're betting decision, if you're betting GTD here, I

641
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 2: think it's all kind of feeding into Edwards as the side.

642
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 2: I think Cashweer likelier to finish this fight on the feet,

643
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 2: but getting GTD at plus money. In another woman's fight

644
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,479
Speaker 2: where the average is over sixty percent. Another bet I'm

645
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 2: going to lead into percentage wise, Billy, any interest after

646
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 2: we just discuss the Stolier Ranco GTD fight at plus

647
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 2: one sixty five, Any interest on the GTD here at

648
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: about plus one or eight.

649
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 4: Probably not for me. I will just point out a

650
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 4: couple lines. I kind of like these, not sharefulll bet

651
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 4: any of them. Cashaweer on the finish only money line

652
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,360
Speaker 4: is plus three hundred, which probably close from that. Like,

653
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 4: I agree with your take on Edwards needing a decision.

654
00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 4: Cashawere on the round one money line plus three thirty.

655
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 4: I think that's probably even better than the finished only

656
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 4: money line because Edward's late finish doesn't seem all that

657
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 4: surprising to me. Edward's early finish does a little bit.

658
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 4: And then my favorite bat that never wins a point

659
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 4: to be deducted twenty to one. It's always out there.

660
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,840
Speaker 4: I mean, Kachawere is a good candidate for it. We

661
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 4: know MMA rests don't actually enforce the rules unless Cody

662
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 4: Brundage is fighting, but since Cody Brundage is not involved

663
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 4: in this one, we're gonna have to probably not gonna

664
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 4: catch it. But again it's twenty one. If Priscilla katchawere

665
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 4: a fought Cody Brundage, that line would be like minus

666
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 4: five hundred, but that obviously won't happen.

667
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 2: I feel like Jocelyn Edwards has also been in a

668
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 2: fight that like a fifteen minute fight that took like

669
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: two hours because there were so many fouls. I can't remember.

670
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 2: It might have been a fight against Cornoall. Honestly, I'd

671
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 2: have to go back and watch that one. I feel

672
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: like there were a million fouls in that Cornole Edward's fight.

673
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 2: It was the first fight in the card. Cornall one

674
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: like an undeserved decision, but the fight took forever. So yeah,

675
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: There's definitely been fights in Edwards's career where either her

676
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: or her opponent have committed fouls as well, So this

677
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 2: could be a potential spot for a Cashiera point deduction

678
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 2: prop bet another fight. I like fighter I like at

679
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 2: big underdog odds this weekend, but I think you'll get

680
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 2: a better live line on him, and I like his

681
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 2: round two and round three props as well. That's Gilbert

682
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 2: Urbina at about plus three ten against euros metic. Urbina

683
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,240
Speaker 2: is the bigger man two witches taller for inch reach advantage,

684
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 2: but he's going to get hit and hit hard early

685
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: and Metich is a dangerous early finisher. But if Urbina

686
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 2: was better, Cardio is able to survive those exchanges. I

687
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 2: think he could drown Metch down the stretch, potentially finish

688
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 2: him in round two at plus sixteen hundred, round three

689
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 2: at twenty six to one. And I think you'll get

690
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 2: a better live price on Urbina after round one then

691
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 2: you do pre fight, So I'll probably have those pre

692
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: fight late round props on Urbina and then I'll be

693
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 2: looking for a live money line after five minutes, Billy,

694
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 2: Any thoughts Unmeticch and Urbina for Saturday more of.

695
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 4: A question than a thought. Where's Gilbert? Or being a

696
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 4: bin like what's he? I feel like we haven't heard

697
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 4: that name in a while. It's looking like he hasn't

698
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 4: fought in a year and a half Like that always

699
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 4: worries me a little bit, younger guy, But yeah, I'm

700
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,439
Speaker 4: with you from a technical standpoint. When we don't see

701
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 4: a guy for eighteen months, looks like he had a

702
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,279
Speaker 4: canceled fight in there listed as orbing an injury, so

703
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:33,800
Speaker 4: you never know if.

704
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 3: He loses and sticks around.

705
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 4: That'd be two losses in a row that I would

706
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 4: look at the next fight as the Gilbert or being

707
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 4: a jump back end point.

708
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 2: Personally, Yeah, fair enough, Yeah them a lot fight was

709
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,919
Speaker 2: booked for July of twenty twenty four, so it's been

710
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 2: it's been over a years since he pulled out of

711
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 2: that fight with injury. Not sure what the injury actually was,

712
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 2: would have to investigate further, but regardless, I think given

713
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 2: the dynamic and the sty of these two fighters, it's

714
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 2: going to be medat earlier or being a late pretty consistently,

715
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 2: and li bet also gives you the opportunity to see

716
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 2: how he looks coming off of that long layoff. Miles

717
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,560
Speaker 2: John's against John Mattsimoto and the bandonweight division. Matsimoto about

718
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 2: a minus three hundred favorite, John's plus two forty. I

719
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: think Mattsimoto, very similar to Urbina, can finish this one late,

720
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: but he is a favorite, so you're getting lesser odds

721
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 2: in terms of the round two and round three pops

722
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: eight to one for round two, twelve to one for

723
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 2: round three. Pretty similar price point to what you're getting

724
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,880
Speaker 2: on that mcconico and Brundage fight, but again mcconago. The

725
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: underdog Matsimoto a minus three hundred favorite because this Masamoto

726
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 2: John's fight is minus two fifty to go all fifteen minutes.

727
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 2: The same game parlay on Masimoto another over one and

728
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 2: a half not going to pay that well because I

729
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 2: think the over one and a half is like minus

730
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,359
Speaker 2: six fifty, So that same game parlay is still going

731
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: to be, you know, minus two hundred or worse. But

732
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: my Tomato five years younger, John's pretty one dimensional, has

733
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: that overhand, can wrestle a little bit. I think Mattsimoto

734
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 2: denies the takedowns, wears him out and potentially finishes this

735
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 2: fight late. My only thing stopping me from being more

736
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: excited about this bet because Matsumoto, to me, is almost

737
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,840
Speaker 2: like Josh Mann with more grappling. You like that building

738
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 2: fighting style picks up more as it goes attritional finisher.

739
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 2: John's did fight I believe Felipe Lima in his last fight,

740
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: and I was pretty convin that Lima was going to

741
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 2: finish him in round two and round three. Lima's one

742
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: of my favorite prospects out there, and Lima was not

743
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 2: able to do so they went all fifteen minutes and

744
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 2: then Lima ultimately lost to Peyton Talbot last time out,

745
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: So I view Lima I think is a better prospect

746
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: than Masmoto. I'm not sure where you fall on Masimoto

747
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: versus Lima, and I think Lima is a more dangerous

748
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 2: finisher potentially than Matsumoto too, So like it's it's an apples,

749
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 2: it's not an apples to apples comparison necessarily, And I

750
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 2: hate to do the Mma math thing, but I was

751
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 2: pretty convinced Lima was going to finish John's down the stretch.

752
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 3: He didn't.

753
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 2: I think Masimoto can do it, but the Lima fight

754
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 2: makes me less convinced that it's going to happen.

755
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 3: So eight to one, twelve to one.

756
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 2: If you want to bet at Matzimto around two round three,

757
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 2: also Matsmoto if the price moves in a all after

758
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: round one, I would lie bet him as well. I

759
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: think it's unlikely to happen, though, So you seem to

760
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 2: be in pretty similar agreement with me there at the end,

761
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 2: Like you lean that way but may not want to

762
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: bet it.

763
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Lima is a considerably better prospect than Matsimoto.

764
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 4: Not that Masmoto's bad, but just there's levels to it.

765
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 4: I also thought Matsimoto beat Rob font in that split decision. Yeah,

766
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 4: so that changes a little bit. I think the one

767
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 4: case you could make is that now Miles John's a

768
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 4: little bit older, not old, but did take a decent

769
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 4: amount of damage against Felipe a Lima. There's just we're

770
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:58,759
Speaker 4: one more fight down the line. Somebody else cracked it,

771
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 4: somebody else loosened the job, and now Jane Matsumoto might

772
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 4: finally actually open it. I think that's the case for

773
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 4: what you're trying to say here, as well as the

774
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 4: grappling upside, because John's has been submitted so I can

775
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,479
Speaker 4: see it. I'm not excited about it. I hate trying

776
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 4: to pooh pooh betch that you gave out at like

777
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 4: eight and twelve to one, though, because they're long shots, right, like,

778
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 4: we don't expect them to win. I think you're onto something.

779
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: It just Yeah, the Phelipe alium A fight makes it scary.

780
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, if that same game parlay was more reasonable, if

781
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 2: it was like minus one fifty on Masmoto and under

782
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: over one and a half instead of I think it's

783
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 2: gonna be like minus two twenty five minus two.

784
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 3: Fifty it's just his money line.

785
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I can't do it at the at the

786
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 2: price point, But why Mazumoto if it gets if it

787
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 2: gets into a better range and maybe round two, round

788
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: three stabs. Another fight that we discussed earlier this week

789
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 2: from a proper perspective, Angela Hill against Yasmin Lucindo. Now

790
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 2: this could be a major age trap because Hill is

791
00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 2: seventeen years older than Lucindo. I think the biggest age

792
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 2: I've seen potentially in a UFC fight. Lucindo twenty three

793
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: years old, Angie Hill forty years old. When Angie Hill

794
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: took her first professional we tie out, Yasmin Lusindo was

795
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: nine years old. So that is the age gap differential

796
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 2: between these two. But I do think in a fight

797
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 2: that is minus five hundred to go to a decision,

798
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 2: Angie's going to be a little bit more enthusiastic about

799
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: trying to do stuff for the judges. Lucindo just looked

800
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: disinterested in her last fight against the Mandalimosh. I think

801
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 2: she landed like fewer than ten significant strikes for the

802
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 2: entire fight, really just didn't engage at all. I thought

803
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 2: she had the wrestling upside in that fight didn't really

804
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,880
Speaker 2: pursue it. She just didn't look like she wanted to

805
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 2: be in there whatsoever. But ultimately, I think the price

806
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 2: distinction between Angie's money line at about plus one fifty

807
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 2: and her decision prop north of plus two hundred is

808
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: too wide. I make her money line plus one sixty three,

809
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 2: so no value for me there, but I make her

810
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: decision prop about plus so two to one are better

811
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,640
Speaker 2: on angie Buy decision in a fight that is heavily

812
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 2: used to go to a decision in a fight where

813
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:10,240
Speaker 2: I think she could be a little bit more active

814
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 2: than her opponent, Angie by decision to two to one

815
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 2: seems kind of enticing relative to her money line. Billy,

816
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: agree or disagree with that sentiment?

817
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, one hundred percent. We talked about this one earlier.

818
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 4: I don't know if I said it to you or

819
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 4: somewhere else, but it seems like Angela Hill just started

820
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:28,800
Speaker 4: learning to grapple at like thirty five after being in

821
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 4: the UFC.

822
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 3: For a decade.

823
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 4: At that point she's like, Yeah, maybe I should learn

824
00:40:31,640 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 4: some wrestling, which is funny but also impressive that it

825
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 4: worked right Like normally people try that late in their

826
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 4: career doesn't happen. One thing I want to point out,

827
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: though you mentioned biggest age gap. You can remember at

828
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 4: UFC four, Hoys Gracie fought Ron van Cleef with a

829
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 4: twenty three year age gap. Only UFC appearance for the

830
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 4: legendary martial artist Ron van Cleef.

831
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 3: That was the one I had the best.

832
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 4: Off the top of my head, there's probably been in

833
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:58,240
Speaker 4: like one of those first handful of UFC's. They probably

834
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 4: had a sixty year old guy in there at one point. Yeah,

835
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 4: just throwing that one out there, I.

836
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 2: Would I would assume Hoys was was the younger was

837
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 2: it was the the older man of the two.

838
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 3: No, Hoys was twenty three years younger than twenty three

839
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 3: years younger. Oh my god, don't they.

840
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 4: Don't left Ron man Cleef say he's born in nineteen

841
00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 4: forty three and UFC four happened in nineteen ninety four,

842
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 4: so Van Cleef was fifty one years old for his

843
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 4: one and only.

844
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: I see I see the picture Ron with the gray

845
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 2: hair inside the cage.

846
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 3: That's incredible.

847
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 2: He the rocky American flag shorts too, Just absolutely greatest stab.

848
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 4: There, looking like a proto Benil Daryusch with all that

849
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 4: great hair.

850
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 2: He really does. He's got the Benny hair one hundred percent.

851
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 2: Before we get to our best bets, just one more

852
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 2: message from Action Network. The Ultimate twenty twenty five Fantasy

853
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,520
Speaker 2: Football Draft Kid is here Sean Kerner and Chris raybound

854
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:57,920
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855
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:01,439
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856
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857
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:10,200
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858
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:13,600
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859
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 2: Fantasy Labs dot com slash flex. I'll be using those

860
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 2: tools to help prep myself for my own fantasy draft

861
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 2: later this month, as I do every year. Have not

862
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 2: won a league since Peyton Manning was playing quarterback at

863
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,120
Speaker 2: a high level for the Indianapolis Colts. However, I'm in

864
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: the playoffs every single year, and I think from there

865
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 2: it's just a little bit of coin flip a lock

866
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 2: for or against as to whether you advance consistently in

867
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 2: the playoffs, and these tools I'll help you stay competitive

868
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 2: in your league.

869
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon here, Sean Kern of the Odds Maker and

870
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: I will be in Chicago on August twenty third for

871
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: a live Fantasy Flex event presented by Yahoo Fantasy, and

872
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a few special guests there as well.

873
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 3: It's gonna be tons of fun. It's gonna be We've.

874
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: Done a few of these already, So if you are

875
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 1: at or near the Chicago area and you want to

876
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: come through and hang with us August twenty third, mark

877
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: your calendar right now and ris VP. We're gonna do

878
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: a live Fantasy Draft. We're gonna watch some preseason games

879
00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 1: together and more, and it's totally free to attend. All

880
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: you need to do RSVP, there's a link in the

881
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 1: episode description where you can find all the details, So

882
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 1: go to that link, RSVP, save the spot, come through.

883
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 1: We will see you at Joe's Bar on Wee Street Saturday,

884
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 1: August twenty third in the Shy for a Fantasy Flex

885
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: live event presented by Yahoo Fantasy.

886
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 2: Some best bets though for this weekend more of a

887
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,759
Speaker 2: final bet for me between Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama.

888
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 2: Not even that I projected value on this bet particularly,

889
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 2: but in terms of my riids going through these fights.

890
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 2: This fight just screamed binary quick finish because Kazama coming

891
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 2: in off road to UFC got kaoed by Rindy knock

892
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: Mora kaloed by Garrett Armfield both early in those fights.

893
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 2: Think got knocked down by Charlambos grigoriuz So knockedown or

894
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 2: knocked out in all three of his UFC bouts. Striking

895
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 2: defense forty two percent is a major concern. He does

896
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 2: have some pretty interesting lethal grappling, though, and I think

897
00:44:20,360 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 2: this could be a binary matchup where he has a

898
00:44:22,520 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 2: grappling advantage over Smith that we saw taken down multiple

899
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 2: times of Vince Morales put in a few different submission attempts.

900
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 2: I think Smith, though likely to finish this fight via

901
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,720
Speaker 2: early knockout under one and a half here is minus

902
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 2: one thirty. They gotta like that up to around minus

903
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 2: one point fifty. Considering the dynamics and the binary nature

904
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 2: of this matchup, I think is Smith early ko is

905
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 2: very likely, however, and probably a pretty good fight too

906
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: from a DFS perspective, considering, I think either likely to

907
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 2: finish this one pretty quick. Billy, any thoughts on that fight,

908
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: and then you've got another ends inside the are under

909
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 2: that you want to give out between Eric Anders and

910
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 2: CLB a Christian le Re dunk.

911
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, you hit my thoughts ahead of time.

912
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 4: I've been all over Smith from a DFS standpoint for

913
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 4: a lot of reasons. He and Julius Walker are the

914
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 4: two most expensive fighters. I just think Smith is a

915
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 4: much better option because if he doesn't get an early finish,

916
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 4: he's probably gonna wrestle a ton either way.

917
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 3: Kind of happy with that for DFS. So just hits

918
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:22,800
Speaker 3: that nice.

919
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 4: The upside early or upside late thing that you don't

920
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 4: get from a lot of fighters. And yeah, the one

921
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 4: I'm looking at Eric Anders and CLD ends inside the

922
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 4: distance the tailor's oldest time classic style verse style fight.

923
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 4: We have a football player versus basketball player in UFC.

924
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,359
Speaker 4: As we see all the time, you know tons of those.

925
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 4: Eric Anders obviously a boy the NFL training camp player

926
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,479
Speaker 4: or practice squad I think as high as he got.

927
00:45:49,000 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 4: Mostly a grappler, He's a BJJ black belt, competes in

928
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 4: grappling competitions, doesn't submit anyone in the UFC, but he

929
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 4: uses his grappling for ground and pound pretty well. CLD

930
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 4: pretty bad rappler by UFC standards. I would say also

931
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 4: a tall, skinny former basketball player. Not helpful, CLD can crack.

932
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 4: Anders has been dropped in three straight fights, has managed

933
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 4: to not be knocked out in any of those fights,

934
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 4: but those are against Mark Andre Burial, Jamie Pickett, the

935
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 4: night Wolf, and Chris Widman. If those guys are dropping you,

936
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: CLD is probably gonna put you out. Alternatively, Eric Anders

937
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 4: gets some takedown, gets top position against a tall, skinny

938
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 4: guy who doesn't.

939
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 3: Grapple, Well, he'll probably find the finish at some point.

940
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 4: We're getting plus money on that in a division middleweight

941
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 4: where the average is I believe close to a sixty

942
00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 4: percent finish rate looking that up off the top or

943
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 4: saying that off the top of my head, not looking

944
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 4: it up, plus probably, as you've pointed out, and many

945
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,760
Speaker 4: times higher in the apex, especially for the bigger weight classes,

946
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 4: where the guys gets stopped together so everything point in

947
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 4: the same direction, end in time, the distance is plus

948
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 4: one fifteen under two and a half is plus one

949
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:55,759
Speaker 4: forty five. Say that's an accurate price gap, right, like

950
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 4: the thirty cents based on it going a little bit longer.

951
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 4: Play it how you want, like I could see that

952
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 4: one either way but one of those two.

953
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, middleweight's say sixty two percent finish rate, it's actually

954
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 2: the highest of all divisions over the past three years.

955
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 2: Goes down a sixty percent light heavy, and then forty

956
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:14,960
Speaker 2: eight percent because the heavyweight division is so trash. Nobody

957
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: is capable of finishing one another. It's just a bunch

958
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: of fat dudes rolling around and throwing volume and cardio

959
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 2: kickboxing with one another at this point. But yeah, getting

960
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,640
Speaker 2: getting a decent uh. I mean, the average average for

961
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 2: this division should be closer to minus one fifty if

962
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: you're or even minus one sixty if you're going off

963
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:37,680
Speaker 2: with that sixty two percent number. Getting plus one twenty

964
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 2: on this certainly seems appealing. I did project this closer

965
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 2: to a coin flip ten inside the distance, but certainly

966
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 2: get the logic. And Anders has looked physically diminished in

967
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 2: his recent flight. I think, yeah, that is very accurate.

968
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 2: Duncan should have a big speed advantage. Should also point

969
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 2: out too, like Anders getting knocked down by Burio a

970
00:47:56,320 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 2: bit older Wideman, way older picket no power or I

971
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 2: mean Jamie Pickett would probably knock me unconscious. But you know,

972
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: if he was fighting an egg in UFC. I'm not

973
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,440
Speaker 2: sure if he would crack it, so yeah, definitely like

974
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 2: a major concern when you're getting knocked out by Jamie

975
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 2: Pickett at this stage of his career. But Andrews could

976
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 2: be competitive with the grappling. We're not really sure what

977
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 2: Duncan's Duncan's extended wrestling looks like. And Andrew's pretty good

978
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 2: at fighting through exhaustion too. Like even thinking back to

979
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 2: the the Darren Stewart fights, you know, they were ugly fights,

980
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 2: but Andrews seemed to be doing a little bit better

981
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 2: just fighting through both of them being completely gassed. But

982
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 2: did touch on all twelve fights this week. That'll do

983
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:40,919
Speaker 2: it for a USC betting preview. You can mind find

984
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 2: more UFC content for both Billy and myself on actionnetwork

985
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: dot com, and if you'd like to instantly tell some

986
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: of the bets that we discussed on today's show, look

987
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 2: for the quick slip links both in the podcast and

988
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:54,479
Speaker 2: video description, or visit actionework dot com slash bet now.

989
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 2: Don't forget to download the free award winning actionworkap and

990
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 2: sign up for Action pro formediate access to expert picks

991
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 2: and analysis. Best of luck with all your bets this weekend.

992
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 2: Enjoy the violence, Thank you for listening. We'll see you

993
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 2: back here for next week's Pay for Me.

994
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 4: Action.

995
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

996
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

997
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

998
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler