1 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into a Saturday 2 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 1: morning episode of the Daily Juice Podcast. 3 00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 2: My name is Matt Perolt. 4 00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all socials at Sports 5 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: Talk Matt every morning. This podcast is being brought to 6 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,480 Speaker 1: you by Omaha Steaks dot Com. The promo code is Juice. 7 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: Go there. 8 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: Hey, did you hit the Oaks four to one? Now 9 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: only a two unit win, but maybe you put more 10 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:40,720 Speaker 1: than me. I just put a half a unit down 11 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 1: on it. 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: We hit it. 13 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: This is how you say thank you. Go to Omaha 14 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: Steaks dot com. Use the code Juice at checkout. You 15 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 1: get the burger package or other great things at Omaha 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: Steaks dot com. Juice that promo code at checkout at 17 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: Omaha Steaks dot com. Okay, so that's pretty cool. Look, 18 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: I talk to a lot of people, Okay. One of 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: the joys of being in Vegas, and one of the 20 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: joys of doing my other show, The Bostonian Versus of 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: the Book, or when I'm on Sports Grid Television, is 22 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 1: that I talk to a lot of people. 23 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 2: Okay. 24 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 1: The guy from FanDuel TV, Todd Schlepp, was on it. 25 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: That's his bet. Okay, I just tailed it, and I 26 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: always give credit. You know, if you guys are in 27 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: the content space and you take my picks, we know 28 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: you do it. It's been documented basically by now. And 29 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: by the way, I'm not saying that you guys take 30 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: my pick to trail it. You take my pick to 31 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: fade it just as much, which is fine. I don't care. 32 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: Just say thank you. 33 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: I'm doing the work. Just say thank you. It's fine. 34 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 1: Fade follow in the month of April not so good, 35 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 1: not so good. It wouldn't have been fading me too 36 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: much in April. Month of May got off to a 37 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: good start so far, wouldn't be fading me too much 38 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: right now. But you ked if you want to, it's 39 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: absolutely okay. I understand that people have their own decisions 40 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: to make and I'm totally cool with that. But if 41 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: you use the work that I do, just say thanks. 42 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 2: Hey. 43 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: I got this from Matt Parolt. I got this from 44 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: Todd at FanDuel TV. That's where I got an unbelievable 45 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: bet that we hit yesterday with the Oaks. Wasn't my handicap, 46 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: but we talked to Todd on BBB and he said, 47 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: I'm starting with Torpedo Anna and building everything off of that. 48 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: So I just said, okay, let's bet thorpedo Ana. She 49 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: went off at a four to one dog four to 50 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: one price, and she came in and she hit for us. 51 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: So that's beautiful. We get the baseball bet right, we 52 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: get the A's or the Orioles to win the game outright, 53 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 1: and the parlay would have hit. Hockey was the was 54 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:45,079 Speaker 1: the fear. We got the A's, We got the MAVs 55 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 1: and the a one nothing loss for Nashville. They lose 56 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: the game with two minutes to go in the third period. 57 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: It was zero zero and we lost that. Now we 58 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: pushed on the NBA total one ninety nine. But I 59 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: told you I was going to look for a middle opportunity. 60 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 1: And it was one ninety two and a half, and 61 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: I bet over. I was on sports grid. It's documented, 62 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: go watch it on sports grid. I said, over one 63 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: ninety two and a half. We played that. We went 64 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,679 Speaker 1: and tried the middle it and staid we went one 65 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: zero to one on that, so I didn't lose any money. 66 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 2: I won money. I won a unit on that game. 67 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 2: But I was looking to middle it. 68 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 1: So we put we pushed on the one ninety nine 69 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 1: so we won the Oaks bet, we won the baseball bet. 70 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: We pushed on the NBA and we lost on the parlay, 71 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: but the parlay was only a half a unit, right, 72 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: So we won three lost a half unit, up two 73 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: point five units. 74 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 2: On the day. So here we are with the derby. 75 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: Okay, I've got two bets to give you for the 76 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: Derby that cannot be made official because it's paramutual betting. 77 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: Who knows what this is going to go off at. 78 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give you the horses that i'm putting 79 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: together for a try box. Five horses fifty cent trybox 80 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: is a thirty dollars ticket. Let's see what it pays out. 81 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: I've got two of those I'm gonna play. That's what 82 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: I'm doing for the Derby. If it hits great, if 83 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 1: it doesn't, it doesn't matter. We're not making an official 84 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: because it's two darn difficult to do that. Be careful 85 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: of horses that might scratch in the morning, Okay, pay 86 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 1: attention to who may be in and who maybe out. 87 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,320 Speaker 1: There are all sorts of rumors flying around on a 88 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: Marie fierceness horses that are right now in. But let's 89 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 1: see what they run because there could be some issues. 90 00:04:29,200 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: There were in Sturby Day, so funny things can happen. 91 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: So just FYI, be careful. Watch wait until this race. 92 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 1: It's going off at around six o'clock Eastern, around three 93 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,799 Speaker 1: o'clock Pacific. Just make sure that the horses you're gonna 94 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: play are there. Okay, I've got a boxing bet, I've 95 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: got a UFC bet, I've got a hockey bet, and 96 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:52,760 Speaker 1: i've got an NBA play for you. 97 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: Okay, we are. 98 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: Going all crazy today, all right, having a good month, 99 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: having a good run. Let's have a big Saturday. This 100 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 1: it was like a Saturday in the fall. But two 101 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,560 Speaker 1: of these bets, the Derby bets, are not official. 102 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 2: The other four are. 103 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: Okay, so let's talk about the Derby. This is a 104 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 1: fifty cent try box. Five horse ticket. Should cost you 105 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 1: thirty dollars, okay, thirty buck ticket. We're going to take 106 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the two horse Sierra Leone, the four horse Catching Freedom, 107 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 1: the seven horse in Ana Marie, the fourteen in Endlessly, 108 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 1: and the fifteen in Domestic Product. Any order, okay, that's 109 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: what the trybox. Fifty cent trybox, that's what it means. 110 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: Any order, okay, two four, seven, fourteen fifteen in any order. 111 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 2: Okay. If that one two three that's what we need. 112 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: Okay. 113 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 2: If it goes. 114 00:05:55,400 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: Seven fourteen fifteen, awesome, it goes two four seven some 115 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,920 Speaker 1: four seven two awesome, Okay. We're buying all those tickets, 116 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 1: all those combinations. Fifty cent try box. That's why it's 117 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: gonna cost you thirty bucks. 118 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: Okay. 119 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 1: Two four seven fourteen and fifteen. That's the first ticket. 120 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 1: The second ticket, same bet, fifty cent try box at 121 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: the derby. Okay, so you walk to the window, you 122 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 1: say Churchill Downs Race number twelve, fifty cent try box 123 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: on two four seven fourteen fifteen. That's what you say 124 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 1: at the window. The second bet is two number two 125 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: Sierra leone number seven on a Marie number eight, just 126 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: a touch number fifteen, domestic product number seventeen. Fierceness. That 127 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 1: is a two seven eight fifteen seventeen ticket. 128 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 2: Okay. 129 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 1: So that's how we're gonna play this, all right. That's 130 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: how we're gonna run with these horses. Two four seven 131 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: fourteen fifteen one ticket, two seven eight fifteen seventeen, second ticket. 132 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 2: All right. 133 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: So those are the bets we're going to make here 134 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: today for the Kentucky Derby. Again, we're not making it 135 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: official because it is an exotic bet. The odds could 136 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 1: be all over the place how it goes. But those 137 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: are the plays I'm making for the Kentucky Derby. I 138 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: don't know how what what your unit is. 139 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 2: Okay. 140 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: Your unit might be one hundred dollars, this is point 141 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 1: three for you. Your unit might be ten bucks. This would 142 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: be three units for you. 143 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 2: Okay. 144 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: So I don't know what your unit is. That's why 145 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: I cannot make it official. But the cost of it 146 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: betting paramutual makes it a thirty dollars bet. Okay, that's 147 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: the difference. Yesterday we could bet a half unit because 148 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: I bet one horse to win in an hit. This 149 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: is an exotic, far more difficult okay, trybox. Okay, so again, 150 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: one final time. Two tickets that I'm playing in the 151 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: derby two four seven, fourteen fifteen, trybox fifty cents two 152 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: seven eight fifteen seventeen fifty cents. Trybox best of luck 153 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 1: on the Derby. All right, let's get to the actual. 154 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: The bets are official here in Vegas, Canelo Alvarez is 155 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: fighting a twenty seven year old undefeated fighter that has 156 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: a lot of attention in Mexico. All right, the most 157 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: interesting about this fight week has been Canelo and the 158 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: arguments and the trash talking against Oscar de la Joya. 159 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 1: That's a problem for me. Canelo doesn't knock people out. 160 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: He just doesn't. Maybe he knocks this kid out. His 161 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: kids undefeated, Maybe he does it. Maybe he's seeing red. 162 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: Maybe he stops this kid. It's possible, Okay, but this 163 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: kid's never been stopped. This kid has legitimate skill. Only 164 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: Canelo's belts are on the line here. Canelo is risking 165 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: everything to fight a fighter because he's from Mexico, to 166 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: quiet down the critics in Mexico. He can knock this 167 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 1: kid out, he can. I just don't think he's going to. 168 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 1: This is going to be one of those days for 169 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: me where I'm gonna take shots. Okay, it could blow 170 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 1: up in my face. It's happened before. I don't always 171 00:09:13,480 --> 00:09:16,960 Speaker 1: This is my gambling side. Okay, I don't always gamble, 172 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 1: but I'm gonna gamble today. Oftentimes, I'm trying to minimize risk. 173 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 1: I'm trying to find different plays that can be the 174 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: most likely. 175 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 2: This is one of those. 176 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: But you can bet Canelo by knockout but Canelo by 177 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: decision is Misus one oh five at DraftKings. At most 178 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: books is Misus one oh five at Circus Sports in Vegas. 179 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: A book that I respect a lot when it comes 180 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: to the combat stuff is Mius one thirty here in Vegas. 181 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 1: The fights here in Vegas for Canelo by decision. So 182 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 1: I think that's what you're seeing with a lot of 183 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: the noise. The most likely outcome for this fight is 184 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: Canelo by decision. Why what's the point of risking it? 185 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: What's the point of getting into a firefight with this 186 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: kid like he's gotten way more on the line to 187 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: li Oos. This kid is twenty seven years old, has 188 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: a chance to shock the world and beat Kenelavarez. There 189 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: is no way Canelo loses by decision. No way he 190 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: lost when he moved up to Bevil fighting for his belts, 191 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 1: not for Canelo's belts, who but up in weight class 192 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: there he lost. Canel Lavaiz is never losing a decision 193 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 1: in Vegas with his belts on the line, not happening. 194 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 1: I was at the Triple G fight, both of them. 195 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 1: I was at the fight against Kovalev, I was at 196 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: the fight against con It could be a late stoppage. 197 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 2: That's possible, Okay. 198 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: I'm not denying the Canelo by knockout is a very 199 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: possible play, But I just think the most likely situation 200 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: is Canolo by decision at minus one oh five. He 201 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: wins the fight but doesn't knock the kid out. The 202 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,959 Speaker 1: kid probably gets knocked down, maybe gets back up, can 203 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,599 Speaker 1: kind of handle it and get through the barrage of 204 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,960 Speaker 1: getting battered. But Canelo by decision minus one oh five 205 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: one unit one point zero five units down on taking 206 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: Canelo by decision UFC three oh one Main event. The 207 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 1: card stinks. Let's be its being completely honest. Everything was 208 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 1: ramped up. All of it was ramped up to three hundred, 209 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: So three oh one is gonna stink. Three oh three 210 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 1: is gonna be great. I'll be at three oh three 211 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 1: here in Vegas for International Fight Week on June twenty ninth. 212 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 2: I'm going to that event to cover it. This this 213 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 2: card stinks. This card stinks. 214 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 1: But it's all about the It's all about the main event. Okay, 215 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: It's all about the belt. 216 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:25,439 Speaker 2: Okay. 217 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: This is a belt fight between Pantosia against a librarian 218 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 1: looking dude named Steve Erseig astro Boy as he goes by. 219 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: This kid's been in the UFC for like two seconds, 220 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: two seconds. This fight's in Brazil in rio flyweight title belt. 221 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: Pentosia is a guy who is really dangerous. Let's just 222 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: be frank. He's twenty seven and five. He just beat 223 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: Brandon Rovel Revalt by decision. He beat Brandon Moreno by 224 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:03,960 Speaker 1: split decision. I mean he beat alexand Perez in the 225 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: first round with a neck crank. He beat roval by 226 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: a real naked choke in the second round. Those weren't 227 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 1: title fights. Last two title fights have been decisions. I'm 228 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: taking a shot here. When the UFC puts a relatively 229 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: unknown fighter into a title fight, there's a reason this 230 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: kid can box. Steve Erseeg might be one of the 231 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: best boxers that we have never talked about with four 232 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: ounce gloves. This dude is a really good wrestler. This 233 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 1: dude is a really good grappler. And when I hear 234 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:48,400 Speaker 1: guys like Robert Whittaker say this dude's winning the fight outright, 235 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: that we don't know. 236 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 2: When the guys who. 237 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: Know start talking about other guys saying, look out for 238 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 1: what this kid's going to be able to do. I 239 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:02,440 Speaker 1: pay attention plus on seventy five. I told you I'm 240 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: gonna take shots. I'm taking a shot. Three and a 241 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: half is the rounds minus one sixty at Circus Sports 242 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,319 Speaker 1: in Vegas. For this fight not to go to the distance, 243 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,240 Speaker 1: I think we might see a shocking upset. I think 244 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 1: this kid, who looks like he should be I don't know, 245 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: an uber driver like, he doesn't look like a fighter, 246 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: doesn't really act like a fighter. That's dangerous to me. 247 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: That's when I start to go, huh, how good is 248 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: this guy? Start watching videos, start watching the knockouts, the 249 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: power he has in his hands. Here's the interesting thing. 250 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: Pantosia gets hit like a lot. Average strikes absorbed per 251 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: minute for Pantosia is three point nine. 252 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 2: That's high he gets hit. 253 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: If this kid can fight at range, Pintojia wants to grapple, Okay, 254 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,439 Speaker 1: he straight up. He wants to go down. Average takedown 255 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: take down per fifteen minutes two point two. Okay, he 256 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: take takes an accuracy forty eight percent. Takedown accuracy. He's 257 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: gonna want to take him down now. Takedown defense pretty 258 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: good for ERSIK seventy seven percent. He's hard to take down. 259 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,120 Speaker 1: And he wants to stay on the feet. He's also 260 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: five eight. He also has a one inch reach advantage. 261 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 1: He's taller with a longer reach. He wants to fight 262 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: at distance, and he should be the better boxer on 263 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: the feet. If Pentoja gets caught coming in, Ersa can 264 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 1: knock him out, straight up, can knock him out. He 265 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: did it to Matt Schnell in his last fight and 266 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 1: it's what earned him this chance to get into this 267 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 1: octagon to fight for the belt. Look, it's a shot. 268 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: Pentojia is a large favorite. Pantoja is what people think. 269 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 1: They're gonna come in. They're gonna bet him because the 270 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: cannibal has been tremendous and this dude, can you know, 271 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:54,960 Speaker 1: was one defending his belt twice, third time defending the belt. 272 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: But guys like Ersig, they start to make me go hmmm, 273 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: Robert Whittaker, Guys like Israel Asanya, Alexander Volganowski, like, we 274 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: have underestimated a lot of these fighters from this part 275 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 1: of the world. Yet the UFC gave this kid a 276 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: title shot. There's something to that. There's just something where 277 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: I'm going wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, why is this 278 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: kid getting this shot so fast. Somebody in the organization 279 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: thinks he's really talented and he's really good, and he 280 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 1: may put on an absolute banger of a show. Let's 281 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 1: take a flyer plus one seventy five. Steve erseg to 282 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: upset Panosia in the main event of UFC three to 283 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: zho one. Take him by knockout if you want, I'm 284 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: mistaking the plus one seventy five on money line. Maybe 285 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: there's a card situation. Be hard for them winning the cards. 286 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: It's in Rio. It's not gonna be easy. But again 287 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 1: three and a half. If Pentosia gets clipped, it is 288 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: fighting this dude. When you see this guy, you're gonna 289 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: go that guy, Matt, you bet that guy. Yeah, yeah, 290 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: Steve Ersig, his name is Steve. You know, sounds like rkle. 291 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 2: It's not. 292 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: It's er sig astro boy money line win plus one 293 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: seventy five. Two more bets. Toronto plays Boston to night. 294 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: Look again, I'm betting the same thing we bet in 295 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: Game six. Okay, if the Bruins win, I'm very happy. 296 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: It's plus one twenty on the money line for Toronto. 297 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: The Boston Bruins would become the first team in Anchel 298 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: history to lose back to back Game seven's at home 299 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:30,280 Speaker 1: and blowing a three to one lead. 300 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 2: In the process. No one's ever done that before. 301 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 1: The Toronto Maple Leafs last one in Game seven was 302 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety three against the Detroit Red Wings. I 303 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: was in high school in nineteen ninety three. I'm forty seven. 304 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: It's a long time ago. Toronto has been horrible against 305 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:51,280 Speaker 1: Boston in Game seven's. I believe they're owing five. They're horrible. 306 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: Everything says Boston, Boston, Boston. This is just a straight 307 00:16:56,760 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: If the Bruins are gonna lose, I'm making money. 308 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: That's what this is. 309 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: Plus one twenty one unit mayple Leafs money line. Look, 310 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: the under could come in five and a half. Is 311 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: juice to match one twenty five. Look at what happened yesterday, 312 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:15,160 Speaker 1: both games solo scoring, crazy games too, nothing in one 313 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: nothing right, just crazy, crazy games. Nashville loses. We lost 314 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: the parlay based on that bet. Unfortunately lost us a 315 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: half a unit because Nashville lost one nothing to Vancouver 316 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,680 Speaker 1: Bruins two to one loss in Game number six to 317 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: set up the Game seven, probably a two to one. 318 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 1: The Toronto Maple Leafs have not scored more than two 319 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:40,400 Speaker 1: goals against Jeremy Swayman in two years. Okay, talk about 320 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: team totals for the Toronto Maple Leafs two. Okay, team 321 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: total two two and a half. Bet the under if 322 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: you want to go with exotic and jump on in 323 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: with that. That's just you know how they score? 324 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 2: They don't. 325 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,159 Speaker 1: They just don't score in these games. So if the 326 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,200 Speaker 1: Bruins score three, it could be a four to two final, 327 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 1: very possible. Pull the goalie for to two final. But 328 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 1: the Bruins score three goals on Wall, who's been unbelievable? 329 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: The Bruins score three games over, Bruins win. Okay, that's 330 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: the magic number. Boston has to score three goals. Can 331 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: they do it? 332 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 2: I don't know. 333 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: Money line Toronto plus one twenty for one unit? Am 334 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: I sacrificing a unit? 335 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 2: Yes? 336 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: Yes, I'm sacrificing the unit. Okay, it is a Saturday. 337 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: John Annick is calling UFC three to zero one. This 338 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: is the John Annick school of thinking. Okay, bat against 339 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: your team in a big moment, because if they lose, 340 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: at least you win money. Okay, if they win, you're 341 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: happy to give them back a unit and go Okay, 342 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: I'm good with the unit. So Toronto money line for 343 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 1: one unit at plus one twenty. And finally, the Denver 344 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: Nuggets up against the Minnesota Timberwolves. 345 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,120 Speaker 2: I can't shake this. 346 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 1: Everyone is on the minnesot Timberwolves to win game one, 347 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 1: to cover Game one, and even to win this series 348 00:18:58,520 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: against the Denver Broncos. 349 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 2: It's Denver Nuggets. Excuse me. 350 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: I would love to see Minnesota do this, I really would. Okay, 351 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 1: but I don't think this is gonna happen. Here's the 352 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 1: game plan. Denver to win Game one and Denver to 353 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: win this series is minus one ten all right, money 354 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: line is minus one eighty for Denver. I have a 355 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 1: hard time seeing Denver losing game one of this series 356 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: at home and losing home court. Okay, just have a 357 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: hard time seeing it. I think Denver wins Game one. 358 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: So the bet is Denver to win Game one and 359 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: then to win the series in the hopes that Denver 360 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,520 Speaker 1: wins both Game one and Game two, and then we'll 361 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 1: take the Tea Wolves at a very inflated price and 362 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: it won't matter who wins the series, will win money regardless, 363 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 1: or will at least break even. Okay, we maybe at 364 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: a half a unit on Minnesota. It maybe three to one, 365 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: four to one, half a unit, so we guarantee we 366 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 1: win a half. 367 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: A unit or we win it like two units. 368 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: Okay, So I'm gonna put the fl down thinking Denver 369 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,520 Speaker 1: wins game one. Now Denver loses Game one, we lose 370 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: one point one units, but it's a cheaper price than 371 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: Denver on the money line in game one, which is 372 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: Mius one to eighty, So you get a reduced price 373 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: for Denver to win game one and the series. We're 374 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 1: gonna put the flag down knowing we're looking to hedge 375 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 1: off of it at some point during the season in 376 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: the series and take Minnesota. Okay, So that's a bet 377 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 1: that won't cast. It's the same play we made with 378 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,879 Speaker 1: Denver in Carolina in game one of the series. Carolina 379 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: win Game one, win the series, Denver win Game one, 380 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: win the series. Both those bets cash for us. We're 381 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: gonna do it again with Denver here to win game 382 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 1: one to win the series. In Mius won ten for 383 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:40,919 Speaker 1: one point one units. 384 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 2: Okay, So. 385 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: Lots to get into, lots to recap. All right, here 386 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: we go one final time, Kentucky Derby trybox fifty cents okay, 387 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 1: two four seven, fourteen to fifteen thirty buck bet, second bet, 388 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: same play fifty cent try box five horses thirty buck 389 00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: bet two seven eight fifteen seventeen okay. Those are the 390 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 1: plays for the Derby, not official, unofficial just Derby bets 391 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 1: if you want them official plays Canelo by decision here 392 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: in Vegas, misus one oh five one point zero five 393 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 1: units down on Canelo by decision, Steve Arseeg money line 394 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 1: to upset Pentosia at UFC three to ZHO one main 395 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: event to win the fly Web Flyweight fly Welt Flyweight belt, 396 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 1: excuse me, plus one seventy five one unit Toronto Maple 397 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: Leafs money line Game seven against the Boston Ruins. Plus 398 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 1: one twenty one unit Denver to win Game one in 399 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: the series, and minus one ten for one point one units. 400 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: All right, So really we've got three point zero five 401 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: units in play officially for today. We have the Derby bets, 402 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: and we got the Denver play, which will be decided 403 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,399 Speaker 1: later on unless Denver loses Game one, and then that 404 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: bet will obviously cat We'll lose that bet, So technically 405 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 1: have four units in play here today, but we could 406 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: wind up with just three. If Denver wins Game one, 407 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: we'll do with that unit later on during the during 408 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: the turn, during the dur in the series for Denver 409 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Okay, horse racing, boxing, UFC hockey, NBA basketball. 410 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: It's five sports for you guys who are mad about 411 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: the three and three three sports and three bets. There's 412 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,080 Speaker 1: five sports and seven bets for you guys here today 413 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 1: on a Saturday min as Matt parolog You guys can 414 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 1: follow me across all socials at Sports Talk Matt every 415 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,400 Speaker 1: morning Dale Juice Podcast. I was being brought to you 416 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: by Olma Steakes dot com