1 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: What's going on? 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 2: Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 3 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined by two very special 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 2: guests today as we're going to be taking part in 5 00:00:15,400 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 2: some ADP battles, going position by position, helping you out 6 00:00:18,680 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 2: with some of the tougher calls you're gonna have to 7 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 2: make on draft day. I'm joined by two very good 8 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: friends and two mentors of mine that I've known pretty 9 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: much since I got started in the space, Flat Sadler 10 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: from FTN Fantasy and Rob Silver, co host of the 11 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: Launch Angle podcast. Guys, thank you so much for making 12 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: time today. I really appreciate you hopping on. 13 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: An absolute pleasure and honestly know no one better or 14 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 3: more fun to battle with than a retired attorney and 15 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 3: super sharp dude and rub. 16 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 4: It's it's when you say mentors, I think you just 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 4: mean people much older than I am. So Joe, I'll 18 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 4: take that as a compliment, not as a backhanded compliment, 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 4: but great to. 20 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: Be here totally as I know it is. 21 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:03,959 Speaker 5: Yahause, it's great to be here. 22 00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: I remember my first time in Arizona at first pitch 23 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 2: and all of us sitting around the back table outside 24 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: just getting to know everybody, and it's crazy it's been 25 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 2: five years, but you guys are two of the absolute best, 26 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 2: two of the truly two of the best high stakes 27 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: fantasy baseball players in the world. So we're gonna be 28 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 2: picking their brain today on like I said, some of 29 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 2: those tougher calls that we're gonna have to make on 30 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 2: draft Day before we get into the meat and potatoes 31 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 2: of the show. Though Rob, I know you will had 32 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 2: a point you wanted to make about rookies and potentially 33 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 2: some mispriced rookies twenty twenty, it. 34 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 4: Was more intended on the off chanse Vlatt and I 35 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 4: agreed on everybody, and just to be clear, we're doing 36 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 4: like these player battles. 37 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 5: I think Flatt and I with over the years, we. 38 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 4: Have had disagreements on guys, which is natural, Like it 39 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 4: would be life would be too boring if we agreed 40 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 4: on everybody. But the interesting thing is you sent us 41 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 4: a list of like fifty potential matchups, and I think 42 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 4: more than most years, Flatt and I agreed on the 43 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: vast majority of guys. So I think it would be 44 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 4: a really boring podcast if we went through like no, 45 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 4: I agree, I too agree it's just not that interesting. 46 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 4: But it's interesting how much we agree on so many 47 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 4: of the guys this year, I think, and it's more 48 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 4: an observation. We can get into it for we fill 49 00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:16,919 Speaker 4: an hour. I think with this there was a time 50 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 4: in the NFBC, and I don't think I think we 51 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 4: use NFBC as a proxy because there's money on the line. 52 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 4: So I think in the industry as a whole, where 53 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say that there was. We 54 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 4: were always drawn by the shiny new thing. We were 55 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 4: always interested in who's new, who's exciting, where's the upside, 56 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 4: let's it go? And they went real early and sometimes 57 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 4: it worked out, sometimes it didn't worked out. I think 58 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 4: there's been, especially amongst the hitters this year, a correction 59 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: and they're going and I'm not just talking about our 60 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 4: good friend Connor Griffin. I think from top to bottom, 61 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 4: it's been very noticeable to me. And it starts like 62 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 4: in November, you guys get back from first Pitch Arizona 63 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 4: and everybody's all horn as the kids say, am I 64 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 4: allowed to say the word forn Joe on this podcast? 65 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 4: For the kids they just saw? But it hasn't really 66 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,800 Speaker 4: moved much. There's been some movement as spring training starts 67 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 4: in terms of where these rookie hitters are going. And 68 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 4: I count from like Connor Griffin on down about fifteen hitters, 69 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 4: not who will finish in the top one fifty, but 70 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 4: who you can tell a story right now on a 71 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 4: plausible path to them hitting one fifty. And it's just 72 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 4: been real interesting to me how small c conservative the 73 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,119 Speaker 4: crowd has been in terms of where they're going. 74 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 5: I'm flat. I don't know if you've noticed that. You've 75 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 5: obviously done. 76 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 4: A lot of DC's I assume you're in OC mode. 77 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 4: It's a little bit different in the twelve team format 78 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 4: in terms of just like if you want rookies, and again, 79 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 4: Connor Griffin's starting to rise. McGonagall is starting to rise, 80 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 4: but it's like if you want them, it's just it's 81 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 4: pretty cheap and there's risk, but it's pretty cheap. I 82 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 4: don't know what your reaction to that. 83 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I agree, And I think a lot of 84 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 3: it stems from the fact that over the last few years, 85 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 3: people are paying attention to the type of teams that 86 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 3: are winning the main event overall, the auction championship. You know, 87 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:17,799 Speaker 3: Mike Meger has won at two years in a row. 88 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 3: He's you know, he likes the Randya Rosarinias, the Brian 89 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 3: Reynolds is, you know, coming off a bad season like 90 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,480 Speaker 3: those are the type of targets he goes for. George 91 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:33,280 Speaker 3: Springer was paramount to his success last year and realizing 92 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: that sure, sexy and young can be part of the 93 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 3: path to winning, but it needs to be They need 94 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 3: to be selective shots, and you need to be careful 95 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 3: with the extreme rising helium like right now, for example, 96 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 3: Kevin mcconagall, he's been hanging around around his ADP, which 97 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 3: is in the late two hundreds early three hundreds, for 98 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:53,719 Speaker 3: such a long time, and the more he hits, it 99 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 3: keeps hitting in spring training, that's going to rise exponentially, 100 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 3: especially if it looks like he's going to steal a 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 3: job in Zach mcinnon will just be like a platoon guy. 102 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, a you know, Swiss army knife. So that 103 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 3: can happen quickly. And so those that have been drafting 104 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:11,279 Speaker 3: early and the snagging the three hundred ADP McGonagle shares, 105 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,359 Speaker 3: they're stoked. But if it starts to get into the 106 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 3: one hundred and one twenty range, like there just becomes 107 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 3: a point where it's not worth it. And so you 108 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 3: see a lot of success among players that are not 109 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,839 Speaker 3: chasing that that rookie helium, and so you know what 110 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 3: Rob says checks out fully. Yeah. 111 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:29,160 Speaker 4: I think it's what's interesting is it's it's the whole 112 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 4: zigging when everybody's zags. So in previous years, if the 113 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 4: boring old veteran and it's it's it's not just lots 114 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 4: of players. You know, Posma has had lots of success, 115 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 4: lots of great players tend to draft boring teams love 116 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 4: the boring veterans, and when those guys are undervalued, it 117 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 4: makes tons of sense to just stay undervalued. We'll see 118 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 4: what happens in the next month kind of as people 119 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 4: head towards Vegas and head towards the main event, as jobs, 120 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 4: as you say, become I just wonder if there's a 121 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 4: bit of a market opportunity, and again it's within limit. 122 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 4: If McGonagall is going at forty pick forty five three 123 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 4: weeks from now, then everything I'm saying has changed in 124 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 4: terms of where the market inefficiency might lie. It's just 125 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 4: an observation before we jump into these player debates that 126 00:06:23,320 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: I just think is interesting, and it's with the benefit 127 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 4: of hindsight, people may look back and say, no, Rob, 128 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:32,640 Speaker 4: you were actually dead wrong. None of them were actually 129 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 4: all that good, And chasing the Brian Reynolds was absolutely 130 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 4: the right path towards winning. Just draft boring old guys 131 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 4: who we know kind of what they're likely to do. 132 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,679 Speaker 4: But I wonder if things may have shifted a little 133 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 4: bit because they're just not They're not rising for the 134 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 4: most part yet. 135 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 2: I think it's a really good point. I like both 136 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 2: kind of strategies. I like Brian Reynolds and Ian Happ 137 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 2: and a lot of those more kind of mid one 138 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 2: hundreds boring is type of guys. But then all so 139 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 2: maybe mixing in a JJ Weatherhold or McGonagall and kind 140 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 2: of combining both strategies to some extent, not just the 141 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: boring guys, not just the young guys. Kind of mixing 142 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: and matching a little bit, I think is what I'm 143 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: probably going to be doing in most of my upcoming drafts. 144 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 1: I've really become a. 145 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 2: JJ Weatherhold fan recently, But all of those young rookie shortstops, 146 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 2: I think we're going to see all of them jump 147 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: up quite a. 148 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 4: Bit over the next well, and the interesting thing with 149 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 4: so many of them happening to be shortstops, at least 150 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 4: shortstops originally, some of them may gain other position eligibility 151 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 4: down the road, is it does. There's a lot of 152 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 4: good shortstops right now. And by definition, if you're in 153 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 4: a fifteen team leagues, there are fifteen short stops, so 154 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 4: we'll get taken. Then there are fifteen middle infielders. Maybe 155 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 4: a few people take them as a util player. 156 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: But it just it. 157 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 4: Every time I McGonagall or Connor Griffin or any of 158 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 4: them go up, somebody else has to go down. Yeah, 159 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 4: So I think that it will pull in different directions, 160 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 4: I think as we head towards main events for those 161 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 4: of us who play in the NF. So it's just 162 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 4: just an interesting thing. I don't know how it's going 163 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 4: to play out, obviously. 164 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 2: No really really interesting point. The rookies are always a 165 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 2: hot topic. I mean last year it was Camon Arrow, 166 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 2: not technically a rookie, but a guy who was flying 167 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: up draft boards in March. 168 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 4: And how did that work out? I haven't looked at anything. 169 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 4: Did he do okay? In the end, Junior? 170 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: I think he was not bad, sir, You weren't drunk. 171 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 4: And what's what's funny is I heard a lot of 172 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 4: voices in my ear saying, how can you pay that 173 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 4: much for somebody who's never actually done anything before? 174 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's Connor Griffin. 175 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 3: That's a whole different topic, because that's the craziest thing 176 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,080 Speaker 3: that That's the one thing I'll always fight back against. 177 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 3: It's you want to get there before it happens, and 178 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 3: you can't do that at every single pick. But if 179 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 3: you're waiting for something to happen, then your tenth round. 180 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 3: Christopher Sanchez is now a second rounder. 181 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 4: We have Derek Carty this week on the Law Nchangle 182 00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 4: and he's very big on like how can you pay 183 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 4: for these rookie players? The history of the NFBC of 184 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 4: rookies who have actually rookie hitters. I do I keep 185 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 4: saying hitters because I do think there is a difference 186 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 4: between hitters and rookie pittures, just in terms of variance 187 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 4: and range of outcomes some extent the history of the NFBC, 188 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 4: if you look back at rookie hitters who have made 189 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 4: it into the main event top one fifty ADP. So 190 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 4: remember this is a sharp group of people who pay 191 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 4: a big money to play in the main event for 192 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 4: them to get their ADP into the top one fifty. 193 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 4: The rate of return on these guys is actually extremely good. 194 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 4: You have a few examples like vlad Guerrero Junior who 195 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 4: did not have a good rookie season, but the vast 196 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 4: majority of guys who we actually start chasing up as 197 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 4: we get to main event because it means they have 198 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:38,200 Speaker 4: a job like people aren't for the most part taking 199 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 4: by the main event guys who don't have a job 200 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 4: in the first ten rounds, and the actual return on 201 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 4: investment has been, certainly, as an. 202 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 5: Average, very positive. 203 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 4: There are examples where it's like, oh that didn't Evan 204 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 4: Carter a few years ago, that didn't work out. So 205 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 4: there are absolutely examples of fales. You can say that 206 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 4: about warring old guys though too, so that's not a 207 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 4: per se example. It's like Ian Happ could have a 208 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 4: two to twenty batting average this year. Always boring and reliable. 209 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:07,719 Speaker 4: It's just an interesting conversation. 210 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. 211 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 2: As you guys can probably hear, we're going to be 212 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 2: talking more along the high stakes lines today. But I've 213 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 2: picked players when we're getting into our ADP discussions that 214 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 2: are kind of going in the same place on every 215 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: single site. There might be some changes, of course, with 216 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 2: all the different platforms there are, but hopefully these are 217 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 2: decisions you're going to have to make in all of 218 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 2: your upcoming drafts. So let's kick it off behind the plate, 219 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 2: and we'll start with two of the young studs, and 220 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 2: that's Augustine Ramirez and Drake Baldwin vlad Do you come 221 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: out strongly on either end here? They're both going around 222 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 2: pick eighty two. If you're looking at NFBCADP, if you're 223 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 2: looking at the Fantasy Pro consensus rankings and you're looking 224 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 2: at single catchers one fifteen versus one seventeen, so single catcher, 225 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 2: two catchers, they're kind of going in the same spot. 226 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: Do you have a strong opinion here between Baldwin and Ramirez. 227 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 3: My strong opinion is that I very much like both. 228 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 3: In my VDP rankings at FTN, I actually have a 229 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 3: Goosten remain as slightly ahead of Hunter Goodman, and I 230 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,319 Speaker 3: think the little factor there is the fact that he 231 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 3: can steal some bases. You know, Goustin is Ramires is 232 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 3: not particularly fast. I think he's got a sort of 233 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 3: a league average sprint speed or so, but he stole 234 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 3: sixteen bases as a rookie. I mean, he's got big power. 235 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 3: He's you know, forty seven forty percent hard hit ray 236 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 3: barrels a little above average, say with the eight exit 237 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 3: v low and he hit twenty one homers as a rookie, 238 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 3: you know, five hundred eighty five played appearances, you know, 239 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 3: not not too shabby. I understand his defense is poor, 240 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 3: but he's one of those guys that he's gonna his 241 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 3: that's going to be in the lineup every day, regardless 242 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:40,839 Speaker 3: if it's not a catcher, it'll be at DH and 243 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 3: and projection systems. To me, I feel like are a 244 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 3: little light on him. Everyone's got him in the four 245 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 3: eighty to five ten range, which is which is fair. 246 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 3: You know, you assume a little bit of regression, but 247 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 3: that's literally like seventy to one hundred fewer plate appearances 248 00:11:54,600 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 3: than he had last year. So I think if you 249 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 3: plug him into you know, the Vangraft's action calculator, you're 250 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: looking at anywhere, you're going to see, you know, a 251 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 3: depressed a Goosten Ramirez Price. So I do like him 252 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 3: a lot, and I love Drake Baldwin. I'll let Rob 253 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 3: talk about him first, but but I've got some good 254 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 3: thoughts on him as well. 255 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 4: So first thing I'd say is if you're playing in 256 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 4: a one catcher league, So if you're if you're in 257 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:21,599 Speaker 4: a league that whether it's twelve team, ten team or 258 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 4: fifteen team league, you should probably not be taking any 259 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 4: of these guys at AVP because the reality is there 260 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,199 Speaker 4: are fifteen really good catchers right now. 261 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 5: There are twelve really good catchers right now. 262 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: And if you're in a league that only needs to 263 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 4: start one catcher, which means almost nobody should be using 264 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 4: catcher at d H, then I would just waiting for 265 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 4: the unless you unless you are a horn I'm still 266 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 4: allowed to say that, right, Joe, Like, just play your 267 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 4: ear three busy is that that's over the lie. If 268 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 4: that's over the line, unless unless you love one of 269 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,640 Speaker 4: the really early catchers, I would I would just see 270 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 4: who falls for me. So we're talking to catcher league, 271 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 4: which means catcher ultimately still is scarce. I also like 272 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 4: both of these guys, but I think that the big 273 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 4: difference is I think Drake Baldwin is a much better 274 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 4: actual baseball player and actually finds himself in a context 275 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 4: where I feel more certain that he. If I had to, 276 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:19,719 Speaker 4: if I simply had to make a bet, who ends 277 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 4: up in twenty twenty six with more played appearance, Baldwin 278 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 4: or Ramirez, I. 279 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 5: Think it's actually Baldwin. 280 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 4: So that's where I take a little bit of issue 281 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 4: with vlad Is Augustin. Ramirez needs to be able to 282 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 4: DH for the Marlins in order for him to be 283 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 4: able to fully maximize his plate appearances. Last year, he 284 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 4: played roughly fifty to fifty percent of his games at 285 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:48,439 Speaker 4: catcher versus DH. His OBS last year was about seven hundred. 286 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 4: He was good for a catcher, bad for a DH. 287 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 4: And I think the Marlins have a sneaky number of bats, 288 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 4: and certainly in the back half of the season, will 289 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 4: have a sneaky number of bats. They also traded for 290 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 4: another they have another prospect catcher coming up behind him. 291 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 4: So I'm not saying therefore that Ramirez is going to 292 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 4: be bad, that he's going to lose his job, that 293 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 4: he's We're talking about two very good hitters and very 294 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 4: good catchers, either of whom I'd be very happy with 295 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 4: on my fantasy team. But I think that Baldwin, especially 296 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 4: with yesterday's news that Jerks and Profar, is the dumbest 297 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 4: player to ever put on a major league baseball uniform 298 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 4: and sign a major league baseball contract, as well as 299 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 4: Sean Murphy. I don't have a lot of confidence that 300 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 4: Sean Murphy is about to get healthy, and I don't 301 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 4: have a lot of confidence that Sean Murphy is going 302 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 4: to be healthy enough to be able to catch more 303 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 4: than a. 304 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 5: Couple of days a week. 305 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 4: I just have a lot of confidence in Baldwin's The 306 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 4: Atlanta Braids need Baldwin's bat in the lineup pretty much 307 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 4: every single day, and there is now an opening for 308 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 4: him to be able to DH and play like I 309 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 4: don't even know who their their backup catcher is until 310 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 4: Murphy is Jonah, I'm there, you go, You're you're. 311 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 5: A good friend. Oh he's he could be good. 312 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 4: To the point is I think that is there a 313 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:14,560 Speaker 4: scenario where Ramirez improves as a hitter. He's still very young, 314 00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 4: He's twenty four, which especially for a catcher, just the 315 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 4: learning track for catchers is a little bit longer. Is 316 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 4: there a scenario that he becomes a better hitter? Has 317 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: something like a seven fifty seven seventy ops this year 318 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 4: and everything I just said turns out to be not 319 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 4: true or not relevant. Absolutely, that's possible, But I feel 320 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 4: more confident if I had to bet on one of 321 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 4: them that Baldwin gets gets most day plays one hundred 322 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 4: and forty one hundred and forty five games, which for 323 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,200 Speaker 4: a catcher is a huge amount of volume. One hundred 324 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 4: and fifty games maybe, And I think both of them 325 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 4: produce on a per game basis. So that's my argument 326 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 4: on why if I was sitting at a draft table 327 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 4: and had a minute, I think I take Baldwin over Ramirez. 328 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 3: There's a good there's a good reason to for for 329 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 3: us to basically say that Drake Baldwin could just be 330 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 3: a screaming value in broad daylight. And the reason why 331 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 3: for the few things that Rob mentioned. He is a 332 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 3: better I think he's a better real life baseball player 333 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 3: and probably like a stronger, probably a safer floor. I 334 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 3: think definitely. The profar news helps that. I don't think 335 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: Sean Murphy is coming back anytime soon. But think about 336 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 3: the lineup context. So this is a guy who was 337 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 3: as a rookie produced like a fifteen or sixteen percent 338 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 3: strikeout rate, really tough to strike out, decent walk rate. 339 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 3: He's getting better. He had eighty RBIs as the rookie. 340 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 3: He was the rookie of the Year. And you're telling 341 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 3: me a guy that might hit between a healthy Ronald 342 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 3: Lucuno Junior and Matt Olsen is going where he's going. 343 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 3: I mean, this could just be like a just a 344 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 3: flat out insane deal. The only two difference with him 345 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 3: and you know, Goosen Ramirez. You'll getting some stolen bases 346 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 3: from Ramirez. But honestly, like the more we talk about it, 347 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 3: like it was just there's just something deep in the 348 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 3: gut the soul that's like, man, there's something to hear 349 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 3: about Baldwin that we might just all be missing. 350 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 2: I think I agree. I think that's a that's a 351 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 2: clean suite for Baldwin. So not much of a battle there, 352 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: But we'll get to some battles. I promise we'll move on. 353 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 6: To fow No. 354 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 4: I mean, I'll not to argue the other side. What 355 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 4: Vlad says about the speed is absolutely true. Like we 356 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 4: learned with J. T. Rail Muto over the years. No 357 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 4: longer JT. Malroto, but historically J. Trail Muto. Getting fifteen 358 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 4: twenty stolen bases from your catcher is an amazing advantage. 359 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 4: It gives you so many options in terms of roster belts. 360 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,080 Speaker 4: If you want to draft to Corey Seeger, for example, 361 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,919 Speaker 4: at shortstop, you can make up for the lack of 362 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 4: speed at the middle infield positions if you can. If 363 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 4: you can get some of that speed at catcher. It 364 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 4: also gives you a sneaky floor. I could be right 365 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 4: that Baldwin plays way more. The power numbers can be similar, 366 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 4: but just from a roto valuation perspective, those stolen bases, 367 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:55,200 Speaker 4: like it gives you a huge floor in terms of valuation. 368 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 4: So like I may have sounded really convinced like it's 369 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 4: it's much closer than that. I think we're like yelling 370 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 4: at each other here for those two guys. 371 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 2: Okay, so Baldwin probably the lean, but if you miss 372 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 2: out on Baldwin, Ramirez feels like a very good comfortableation prize. 373 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 5: Yeah. 374 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:13,959 Speaker 2: So let's move on to first base and we'll talk 375 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 2: about another Atlanta Brave, and that's Matt Olson and Bryce Harper, 376 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 2: who are going within about five picks of each other, 377 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 2: usually in the fourth round, depending on your specific format. 378 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,720 Speaker 2: Rob We'll start with you here. Strong lean between Olson 379 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 2: and Harper. I'm more on the Olsen side after what 380 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 2: he did last year. Harper with all his experimental stuff 381 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 2: in the off season, I don't know how to feel 382 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 2: about all of the weirdness. I think I'm more on 383 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 2: the Madde Olson side here. 384 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: What do you think? 385 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 5: I take either of them? 386 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 4: But if if you told me that Bryce Harper is 387 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,400 Speaker 4: healthy for six months, I take Bryce Harper and an 388 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 4: angry Bryce Harper like this, this is rodo got territory. 389 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 4: But I think he was disrespected so wildly by Dave 390 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 4: Dombrowski in the off season. He feels older than he is. 391 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 4: He's third three years old, so he's not peak age. 392 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 4: But Bryce Harper is not old, and I don't I 393 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 4: think there is one more MVP esque. Obviously with shoe 394 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 4: Atani in this world, he's not going to win an 395 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 4: nl mv P. I think there is one more massive 396 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 4: Bryce Harper. He's a Hall of Fame player, and unlike 397 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 4: he always got paired with Mike Trout that came up 398 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 4: roughly the same time they were Stuteley the same time. 399 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 4: He's He's had injuries, but he's very much when he 400 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 4: is healthy, very much still prime Bryce Harper in a 401 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:37,399 Speaker 4: way that sadly Mike Trout isn't. He contributes to stolen bases, 402 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 4: so he's never he's never going to steal your thirty bases. 403 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 4: But again from first base, if you can get ten, twelve, fourteen, 404 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 4: and this is what we saw from Freddy Freeman over 405 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 4: the years. Put aside Josh Naylor last season. He's not 406 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 4: going to steal again thirty. But Bryce Harper is a 407 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:58,400 Speaker 4: true five category guy. And what does if I'm right 408 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 4: and there's one more great season left, I think thirty 409 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 4: five one hundred, one hundred and fifteen two ninety is there, 410 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 4: and that's a first round pick. 411 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 5: Olsen. 412 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 4: He's not going to seal you the bases, obviously. If 413 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 4: if there was just a straight up bet who's going 414 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 4: to hit more home runs, I think I would take 415 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 4: Olson if it was who is going to earn higher 416 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 4: on the roto valuation scale. I just love the upside 417 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 4: with Rice Harbor with a relatively safe floor because even 418 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 4: when he's been injured, he's still contributed, and you can 419 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 4: backfall for the two or three weeks that he's that 420 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 4: he's out. 421 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 2: Glad do you feel have a strong feeling on this one. 422 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 2: I know from what you said before, I think you 423 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,200 Speaker 2: might be kind of split on them, But any any 424 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 2: strong opinion. 425 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 1: No. 426 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 3: I mean my opinion is that I do consider vibes 427 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 3: a lot with things, especially when you do a lot 428 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:49,919 Speaker 3: of research, you got to have you have to have 429 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 3: some element of vibes. And I don't know if I 430 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 3: love what's going on in Philadelphia, starting with the Nick 431 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 3: Ostiano stuff, the manager Euro Thompson kind of calling him 432 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 3: out a little bit, you know, just you know, going 433 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 3: through stuff, and I don't know, I don't necessarily love 434 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 3: the vibes in Philadelphia, whereas I very much do in Atlanta. 435 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 3: And this is profar excluded because I think, you know, 436 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 3: some people knew that that was coming, and you Knowcunya 437 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 3: is healthy. I think that's really key for them. But 438 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 3: for me, what it comes down to is I just 439 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 3: trust matt Olsen a whole lot more to play baseball games. 440 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 3: And he has had four consecutive seasons of one hundred 441 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 3: and sixty two games full seasons. He's literally the iron Man. 442 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 3: The last time Ronald Acunya was fully healthy, matt Olsen 443 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 3: had like the all time season, it was like almost 444 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty runs batted in fifty four homers, 445 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 3: and I'm not expecting that, But I just think you 446 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 3: know him locked in. I just feel a lot safer 447 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,919 Speaker 3: about him than kind of going on the Bryce Harper 448 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 3: wild ride. 449 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,120 Speaker 1: Any rebuttal Rob. 450 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna there. 451 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 4: There is no there is no bad pick amongst them. 452 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 4: What I'd say is there's I hear from some people. 453 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 4: Don't take a first base? Why take Vlad Guerrero? Why 454 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 4: take Nick Kurtz, who I know you're down on Joe, 455 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 4: so we can put Nick. I don't want to debate 456 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 4: Nick Kurtz when you can get Olsen. The reality is, 457 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:12,919 Speaker 4: if you play in the NFBC and you're playing the 458 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 4: main and you want to win the Main, you need 459 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,360 Speaker 4: almost three hundred home runs. So if you can get 460 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,680 Speaker 4: if you were picking at the one T two turn, 461 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 4: if you have picked fourteen fifteen or sixteen or eleven 462 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 4: twelve even and Vlad comes back to you in the 463 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:32,480 Speaker 4: second round, I'd have no problem taking Vlad and one 464 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 4: of these two guys because you just need to load 465 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 4: up and are there. Does it mean you're probably not 466 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 4: taking the eighteenth round first basement that you've been eyeing 467 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 4: the whole winter. Yeah, probably not. But you need stats 468 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 4: and they need to come from somewhere. So I don't 469 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 4: think that I don't buy the argument don't take early 470 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 4: first basement because of these guys. I think you can 471 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 4: use any of them, and they're all you just need production. 472 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 4: And I agree with Flad like Olson's just very reliable 473 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,160 Speaker 4: and just being able to write those numbers into your 474 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 4: like onto your your spreadsheet or into your rotal lab 475 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 4: program or onto your piece of paper is a lot. 476 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 5: Of a lot of comfort. 477 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 4: And there's everything I said about rookies is true. There's 478 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,440 Speaker 4: also something about drafting guys who you feel pretty confident 479 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 4: that you can just kind of use a pen and 480 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 4: write those stats down. 481 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:28,199 Speaker 2: Absolutely, guys, Let's keep it going and we'll talk about 482 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 2: second base now. And this one maybe we have a 483 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 2: little bit more of a disagreement on Matt McClain and 484 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 2: Bryson Stott. They're both a little bit deeper than the 485 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 2: names we've talked about so far, but they're both being 486 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 2: drafted as starting second basement still despite their lower price. 487 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 2: Eleven and twelve respectively, in terms of where they're going 488 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 2: in terms of the second basement. So lad, let's start 489 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 2: with you on this one, Matt McClain and Bryson Stott, 490 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: the guy who has had the up and down first 491 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 2: couple of years, and McLain versus Stott, who has been 492 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say steady, Eddie, but pretty reliable over 493 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 2: the last couple of seasons. Higher potentially, where's your lean 494 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 2: on this one? 495 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 3: For me, it's McLain and I swear to you as 496 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 3: is not just being affected by his incredible spring training performance. Now, 497 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 3: what it is is, Okay, first of all, that first year, 498 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 3: that rookie year, if you guys remember watching those games, 499 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 3: the luckiest hitter in baseball, like the babbitb was through 500 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 3: the roof. Every ball that should have been caught, you 501 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 3: went somewhere, and he almost hit three hundred. Nobody thought 502 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 3: he was going to hit the next year, but then 503 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 3: he missed the whole season with the shoulder injury and surgery. 504 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 3: And then last year, myself included bought in and were fooled. 505 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 3: It was definitely a rough slide. And so the most 506 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 3: important thing I think in fantasy is to not have 507 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 3: then a built in bias, but look at things as 508 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 3: objectively as possible into the following year. This is a 509 00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,439 Speaker 3: widget or an asset. I understand it's a human. But 510 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 3: now we're assessing for this upcoming season, and Matt McClain 511 00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 3: is now a full year removed, he's gone through his struggles. Yes, 512 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 3: he's gonna strike out a lot, he's not going to 513 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,399 Speaker 3: hit it for a high average. But he's a highly 514 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 3: skilled player, a former first round pick, you know from UCLA. 515 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 3: He is, he's a stut I think he's a you know, 516 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 3: twenty twenty plus guy. I think he finds himself back 517 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,639 Speaker 3: into the top third of the lineup. They would, you know, 518 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 3: the Reds would love to get you know, Noel vi 519 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 3: Marte consistent and hitting against lefties, but he can't, and 520 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 3: so Matt McClain may just you know, park in there 521 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,199 Speaker 3: at second, hitting second in the lineup, and it's a 522 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 3: really good spot there. So I do like a bounce back. 523 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: I think their prices are going to there's going to 524 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 3: be there's some diversion diverging happening because I do think 525 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 3: that McClain's going to start moving up a little bit 526 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,320 Speaker 3: and so this won't be as much of a conversation. 527 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a lot of risk, but I feel 528 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:45,880 Speaker 3: like I would go with McLean. 529 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 4: So the honest answer is I haven't taken in whatever 530 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 4: is now nine drafts either of these guys. If I 531 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 4: don't get one of the top top second basement, I 532 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 4: like a lot of the second basement. 533 00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:02,639 Speaker 5: Like I'm punting's second, I'm going lead on second base. 534 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,200 Speaker 4: But if I were going to take one, it would 535 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,360 Speaker 4: be Stout over McLain, And the reason would be if 536 00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 4: I go heavy power on my lineup beforehand. 537 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 5: Stott is just one of those. 538 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 4: Guys who I mean, you look at what he's done 539 00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 4: over the last three years. Thirty one stolen bases, thirty 540 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 4: two stolen bases, twenty four stolen bases with enough power, 541 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 4: so double digit power, and enough batting average. If you 542 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 4: average them out, it's two fifty ish batting average. That 543 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 4: he's not killing me, So he's not a single category guy, 544 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,640 Speaker 4: but he lets me get back into the game at 545 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,679 Speaker 4: second base, which is a good position for me to 546 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 4: get back in the game, and stolen bases if I've 547 00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,960 Speaker 4: punted stolen bases, and that's the only reason why I 548 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 4: would ever consider start. It's not that I'm It's not 549 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 4: that I'm anti McLain. Everything Vlad said is obviously true. 550 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 4: The skills are there, it's great ballpark to have as 551 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:03,080 Speaker 4: your whole as your home in great American ballpark, and 552 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,439 Speaker 4: there's no doubt he could become a twenty twenty player. 553 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 4: But like I think Kevin McGonagall is a better chance 554 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 4: to being a twenty twenty player this year than he does. 555 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 4: And I'm going to still get McGonagall as of today 556 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 4: at least. This could change very quickly. This could change 557 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 4: by this afternoon cheaper, and I'd rather if I'm taking 558 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,920 Speaker 4: a risk, and I think he really is as big 559 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 4: a risk as those rookies. I put him in basically 560 00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 4: the same category as them in terms of you really 561 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:34,760 Speaker 4: have to prove a lot for me, But I have 562 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 4: a pretty good feeling that you could do. So it's 563 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,600 Speaker 4: not that I'm anti McClain. I just don't think I'm 564 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,480 Speaker 4: getting enough of a discount for me to be interested 565 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 4: in him right now. And as Vlad says, every time 566 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,640 Speaker 4: he does something in spring training and Tito FRANKCNA says 567 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 4: more nice things about him, the discount is going away. 568 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 4: It's going in the wrong direction, not the right direction 569 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 4: in terms of price. 570 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 3: The one great thing that Rob touched on that's important 571 00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,960 Speaker 3: to note is that there are a lot of late 572 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,440 Speaker 3: second basemen in the mid two hundreds that are worth 573 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 3: waiting for, Like, yeah, it's the Ozzy Albi's and even 574 00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 3: McLain if he's going up to one fifty and start, like, 575 00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 3: I don't really want to be playing in that range. 576 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,880 Speaker 3: And then on stop specifically, my big concern with him 577 00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,280 Speaker 3: is I don't want to mess with guys that have 578 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,720 Speaker 3: extreme platoon splits. So somebody like Bryson Stott with a 579 00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 3: sixty one WRC plus against lefties and worried about, oh, 580 00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,520 Speaker 3: it is Mendo Sosa going to be, you know, starting 581 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 3: for him against lefties? And that's already what the manager 582 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,960 Speaker 3: said this week. So that means extra work during the 583 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 3: season to like, oh, they're playing three lefties in this period, 584 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 3: who do I have to on my bench or who 585 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 3: do I have to pick up to be able to 586 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 3: get him out of the lineup. So really that's my 587 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 3: only concern. But I think the key takeaway for us 588 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 3: is if you don't grab an early second basement, just 589 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 3: play in the in the later range. 590 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean just to give some specific specific names. 591 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:57,880 Speaker 4: And I know one of the three of us has 592 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 4: been writing up Second Basement for a website. Are we 593 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 4: allowed to even mention the website that you you're right 594 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,480 Speaker 4: at a fangrass Joe's been doing the Second Base previews. 595 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 4: I love Horgate Plonko late Horgate Plonko's kind of going 596 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 4: to twenties range. Labor Torres if you want to talk 597 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,960 Speaker 4: about not sexy but still pretty good, that's like labor 598 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 4: torres is in the dictionary there. Marcus Simeon, I don't 599 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 4: know how much Marcus Simeon fully bounces back, but in 600 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 4: the two forties doesn't need to bounce back that much. 601 00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 4: He just needs to sort of stay healthy. And Marcus 602 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 4: Simeon canto. So like if you told is what are 603 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 4: the odds that McLean outperforms all three of them? Twenty 604 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 4: twenty five percent, But you're paying a big premium for that, 605 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 4: and that means there's a seventy five percent that one 606 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 4: of those guys, and you can pick your poison in 607 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:49,760 Speaker 4: terms of what you think about of them. And there 608 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 4: are others also down there. So while Second Base is 609 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 4: not at the top, it's not very deep at the bottom. 610 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 4: I think it's there's a bunch of really interesting you 611 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 4: can ad absolutely win your league, don't. It's a ten 612 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 4: team league, twelve team league, fifteen team league. With Jorge 613 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:09,520 Speaker 4: Polanco or Labor Torres or Marcus Simeon as your second baseman. 614 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 4: Absolutely you can do just fine with those. 615 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think second, I actually like it a little 616 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 2: bit more than third, which will transition to third. There's 617 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 2: just not really the late options outside of a couple 618 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 2: that I like. And we'll talk about a couple of 619 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,520 Speaker 2: the kind of later options. And you get a couple 620 00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 2: of Canadian guys on the show. We're gonna talk some 621 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 2: Blue Jays, so Adason, Barger, Kasuma Okamoto. Their ADPs are 622 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 2: about the same two six, two oh seven over the 623 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks if you're looking at twelve team 624 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 2: leagues on the NFBC. I don't have a super strong 625 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 2: feel I like drafting both of them personally. Vlad, let's 626 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 2: start with you here. Is there one that piaus your 627 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:46,320 Speaker 2: interest more than the other? 628 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm not the biggest Barger guy. And again, 629 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 3: I think that also comes down to platoon splits. This 630 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,120 Speaker 3: is a guy with a sixty ish WRC plus against 631 00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,400 Speaker 3: lefties last season and an ISO split of nearly one 632 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty points. So you'll see him. He'll just 633 00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 3: get less played appearances and he'll do a lot of 634 00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 3: damage in the ones he does, like he absolutely crushes right, 635 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 3: he's there's no doubt, and he'll be hitting around Vladguro 636 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 3: Junior and things will be just fine, I think for Barger, 637 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,719 Speaker 3: but Okamoto just seems like somebody that can really shoot 638 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 3: up as far as like an overall value or the 639 00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 3: discrepancy between what he'll be like a top fifty hitter 640 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 3: versus where he's going now is like, you know, one 641 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 3: hundred hitter. So for me, I think he also moves 642 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 3: up in the lineup if you're looking at roster resource 643 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 3: or anywhere else you got him at like seventh. Managers 644 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,080 Speaker 3: talking about hitting him higher. I think he can even 645 00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 3: hit second if he, you know, shows the play patience 646 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 3: that he showed overseas, he could hit some home runs 647 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 3: he's hit, and I understand it's a whole different league, 648 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,560 Speaker 3: but you know, forty plus in his in his past life, 649 00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:53,120 Speaker 3: you know, he's not more comy with the power, but 650 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,320 Speaker 3: that's almost a better thing. You're just getting kind of 651 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 3: a more all around balanced hitter. And I think he'll 652 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 3: adjust quickly. I think, you know they're in Toronto. I 653 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 3: think he's already seems to be adjusting quickly. Like this 654 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,280 Speaker 3: is not like a I know this is a picture, 655 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 3: but like you know, rookie Sasaki was like starlights, you know, 656 00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,720 Speaker 3: afraid to go down Hollywood Boulevard, which I don't blame 657 00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 3: him for. But Kimoto, though, I think he's just just fine. 658 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 3: I don't know what your downtown street is there, but 659 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 3: I think he'll be. I think he'll be better than Barger. Yeah, no, 660 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,200 Speaker 3: he'll he won't. He won't be going down King Street East, 661 00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 3: East East, but he'll be. He'll be doing just fine. 662 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,120 Speaker 3: So I like both of them. 663 00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 5: Obviously. I'm a Jays fan. I think everybody. 664 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 4: I mean, the platoon reality is absolutely true for Barcher. 665 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 4: He will the Jays like platooning. He is going to 666 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 4: miss twenty games, twenty five games this year. That or 667 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 4: I shouldn't say missed. He will not start twenty twenty 668 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 4: five games. He may come into the games later. We 669 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 4: saw in the playoffs the potential that's there for Barger 670 00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 4: everybody who is listening to this podcast knows about bat speed, 671 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 4: knows about exit velocity, and Barger has elite at bat 672 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 4: speed and has elite exit velocity. 673 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 5: He hits the crap out of the ball. 674 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,240 Speaker 4: If Barger were to hit thirty thirty home runs this year, 675 00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 4: it would not surprise anybody. And when he is in 676 00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 4: the game against ridings, he will hit. Whether it's whether 677 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 4: it's fourth or fifth, He's going to hit at the 678 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,680 Speaker 4: top of the lineup. I think with Oakmodo, he we 679 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 4: don't know. Like we can all do the major league 680 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 4: equivalents and we can all look at the projections and 681 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 4: we can all trust the j's and good lineup, we 682 00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 4: don't know until he's actually in major league games and 683 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:38,960 Speaker 4: what we're going to get. So I just feel Barger 684 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 4: is a little bit safer. His defense is elite. Barger 685 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,240 Speaker 4: his arm is one of the best arms in baseball, 686 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,920 Speaker 4: both from the outfield as well as when he's playing 687 00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 4: third base. So I would be fine with either of 688 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,479 Speaker 4: them as a late third base option. As Joe says, 689 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 4: if you don't if you're punting third base, especially in 690 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 4: bigger leagues, you you can get creative with options. 691 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 5: But like you're you're. 692 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,520 Speaker 4: Eating a point, you're eating you're eating poison at a 693 00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,239 Speaker 4: certain point and taking a certain risk at at a 694 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,440 Speaker 4: certain point. There is nobody unlike second base. It's it's 695 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 4: a really well said Joe. It's like, look, Glaber Torget Torres, 696 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:23,560 Speaker 4: Jorge Polonko, they're not perfect players. They've got warts, but 697 00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,720 Speaker 4: like I sort of know what I'm getting with Glabor 698 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:29,359 Speaker 4: Torres at this point, with all the third basement point, 699 00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 4: after a certain point of the draft, you're just you're part. 700 00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:37,839 Speaker 4: Something about them sucks. That's just reality. So I don't 701 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:42,200 Speaker 4: think Barger or o Komodo suck. There's just a risk 702 00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:43,439 Speaker 4: with both of them. 703 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 5: Uh. 704 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,360 Speaker 4: There's also a lots off side though. One thing I 705 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 4: will say is about the Jay's left handed hitters generally 706 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 4: is this is this is nothing like Vlad and his 707 00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:57,400 Speaker 4: friends who play fantasy football do. And it's like interesting, 708 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 4: not flat anymore. He's shaking his head. It's it's interesting. 709 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 4: It's useful to a point if you take the twenty 710 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 4: twenty sixth schedule and you take go to road a 711 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,200 Speaker 4: wire or do it yourself, the projected rotations for every 712 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 4: single team. So already this is like that that that 713 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 4: is going to change tomorrow. Rob It's pictures. Forty percent 714 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,160 Speaker 4: are going to get hurt. Of course it is. But 715 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,319 Speaker 4: you project the rotation and just assume every team is 716 00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,640 Speaker 4: going to roll the same five or six guys over 717 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 4: and over and over again. The ja's project to have 718 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 4: to face the most left handed starting pitchers of any 719 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 4: team in baseball, and you can say, well, but there's 720 00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,879 Speaker 4: huge erbars one hundred percent ground. 721 00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:38,520 Speaker 5: I wouldn't make a. 722 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 4: Draft decision on this basis, but part of it is 723 00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 4: because of the way the schedule is set up. If 724 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 4: you look at the Al East, there are a lot 725 00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 4: of left handed starting pitchers, and there are a lot 726 00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,719 Speaker 4: of good left handed starting pitchers. That is not an 727 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,680 Speaker 4: argument just so everybody's clear bade left handed hitters on 728 00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 4: the Jays. It's not that at all. It's something to 729 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 4: poke put in your head, especially in shallower leagues as 730 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,279 Speaker 4: a type breaker. If you're at your draft table and 731 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 4: it's like your fifth outfielder and it's Dalton Varshow or 732 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,359 Speaker 4: another guy, and you're fifty to fifty, just remember I 733 00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,839 Speaker 4: said that, but I fully acknowledged a week from now 734 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 4: or a month from now, it could look real stupid 735 00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,960 Speaker 4: with three injuries and a bunch of decisions. But as 736 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,120 Speaker 4: of today, the Blue Jays project to face the most 737 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,240 Speaker 4: left tended starting pictures. 738 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 1: It is a good point. 739 00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 2: The Al East is just packed with lefties all four 740 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:25,840 Speaker 2: of the other teams. 741 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 1: Victoriols not just so so much. 742 00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 2: But even then they got Rogers, and I think there 743 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,120 Speaker 2: might be one more Povich like there are lefties all 744 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:34,439 Speaker 2: over the place in the Al East. 745 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 1: So maybe that's a slight tie breaker for Okamoto. Maybe 746 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:38,120 Speaker 1: maybe No. 747 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,240 Speaker 4: I just I just put it out there as something 748 00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 4: I don't I haven't seen talked about a lot in 749 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,320 Speaker 4: a lot of It's. 750 00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 1: A really good point. Guys. We're gonna keep it going 751 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:45,720 Speaker 1: in a second. 752 00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,719 Speaker 2: But first I want to remind you that next Wednesday, 753 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,000 Speaker 2: March eleventh, at three pm Eastern, we have the Fantasy 754 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 2: Pros Fantasy Fest, which is a four hour live stream 755 00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 2: packed with all kinds of fantasy baseball content, sleepers, breakouts, 756 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 2: bus must have, all the rest of it. That we 757 00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,440 Speaker 2: are going to be here for four hours, myself, Joe Pizipia, 758 00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 2: the Welsh. We got guests like Bubba, Scott Pianowski, Lance Brosdowski, 759 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:07,959 Speaker 2: all the ouskis are gonna be here with us next 760 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 2: Wednesday as we talk fantasy baseball, So make sure you 761 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:11,960 Speaker 2: guys are checking it out. And once you got all 762 00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 2: that info, head over to fan tracks and sign up 763 00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 2: for a league today. They are the most customizable platform. 764 00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,000 Speaker 2: Three hundred and sixty five days a year. You can 765 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:21,880 Speaker 2: have duplicate players if you want to have massive leagues 766 00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:24,440 Speaker 2: with hundreds of people, two hundred plus manager leagues. It 767 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:26,360 Speaker 2: sounds crazy, but you can do it on fan Tracks, 768 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 2: trade your future draft picks, all of it can be 769 00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:32,279 Speaker 2: done at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's fantracks 770 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,440 Speaker 2: dot com slash Fantasy Pros. 771 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:35,120 Speaker 1: Guys. 772 00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 2: Let's talk shortstop, and this one has kind of changed 773 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,759 Speaker 2: a little bit just because of Francisco Lindor's injury. He's 774 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,799 Speaker 2: come down a little bit in price, and he's right 775 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,680 Speaker 2: around the zach netto Trey Turner range, So I'll kind 776 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,920 Speaker 2: of open it up to all three of them there, Vlad, 777 00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,279 Speaker 2: do you have a strong preference. Are you taking the 778 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 2: Lindor discount? Are you bought in on Neto after what 779 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,440 Speaker 2: we saw in a shortened year last year, or maybe 780 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,120 Speaker 2: just take the guy who's been doing it for almost 781 00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 2: a decade now and Trey Turner. 782 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question. Obviously, everything's changed with the 783 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 3: Lindor thing, as you mentioned, and now he's going in 784 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 3: this range. But as we start to get good or 785 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,719 Speaker 3: better news or so, we hope that it's not that 786 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 3: serious with the HAMMT that he's going to move up 787 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:19,800 Speaker 3: into the early twenties, especially because shopping in that second 788 00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 3: round and fifteen teamers is really tough. It's something that 789 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,160 Speaker 3: I've noticed a lot of other play high stakes players 790 00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,520 Speaker 3: have as well. It's just really tough to click on 791 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,600 Speaker 3: some of the players there. And Lindor is just the 792 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,319 Speaker 3: epitome of safety, right and a little bit of that 793 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,800 Speaker 3: safety has been taken off taken off, But this is 794 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,760 Speaker 3: a guy that essentially produces first round value just about 795 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,600 Speaker 3: every single season. He's in a loaded lineup, lots of 796 00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,440 Speaker 3: good juju on that team, which is the first time 797 00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 3: I can say that about the Mets and god knows 798 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:51,520 Speaker 3: how long, and that's my boy, Luis Robert Junior included. 799 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,719 Speaker 3: He's going to be, you know, enveloped into all of 800 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,080 Speaker 3: that good juju. It starts with Freddy Peralta. By the way, 801 00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,319 Speaker 3: really good dude. Yeah, Lindor's I like all these guys 802 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,239 Speaker 3: like you. When I'm sitting there on the clock, it's 803 00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,920 Speaker 3: going to be a tough position to be in. I 804 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,319 Speaker 3: do like Neto. I have my bold Predictions article on 805 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 3: Fangrafts coming out where I've got, you know, Neto in 806 00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 3: the thirty thirty club, a newest member of the thirty 807 00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,440 Speaker 3: thirty club. He was twenty six twenty six last year 808 00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 3: in limited time. I think, you know, having like a 809 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,040 Speaker 3: healthy mic Trout there, I mean, which is kind of 810 00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,640 Speaker 3: an oxymoron in itself, but you get some of that, 811 00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,240 Speaker 3: you know, the good players behind him, and it's very possible. 812 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:29,399 Speaker 3: I think if Netto stays healthy, I think he'll get there. 813 00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,440 Speaker 3: I feel like he would be an absolute superstar if 814 00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:35,120 Speaker 3: he was on the Yankees or some other team, he 815 00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:38,440 Speaker 3: would be you know, you know, massively in the spotlight. 816 00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,200 Speaker 3: So I don't have like a strong, strong lean here 817 00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:43,080 Speaker 3: because I do like I do like both guys, And 818 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,359 Speaker 3: how can you not like Drey Turner Usually. 819 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 5: Well that makes a lot of good points. 820 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 4: The thing is if you're if if you see your 821 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 4: fantasy baseball team like a stock portfolio, there are times 822 00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,279 Speaker 4: when you're betting on the tech startup that new, the 823 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,560 Speaker 4: hot Ai company. There are times that you want a 824 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 4: little bitcoin, and there are times you want a government 825 00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,960 Speaker 4: treasury bond. And that is what Francisco Lindor is like 826 00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,120 Speaker 4: the lad says Netto could join his hut. You know, 827 00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,000 Speaker 4: his bold prediction for Fangrass is he could join the 828 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:14,920 Speaker 4: thirty thirty club. 829 00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:16,919 Speaker 5: The thing with Lindor is like that. 830 00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,520 Speaker 4: He then he'd become Francisco Lindor, because that's all Francisco 831 00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,279 Speaker 4: Lindor does every year the last three years thirty one, 832 00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,879 Speaker 4: thirty three, thirty one home runs, thirty one, twenty nine, 833 00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:33,400 Speaker 4: thirty one stolen bases, batting average in this in twenty 834 00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:37,040 Speaker 4: twenty six baseball to sixty ish batting average, which is 835 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,880 Speaker 4: which is good. It's not elite, but it's good batting average. 836 00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,400 Speaker 4: And Vlad said something I think it was Matt Olsen 837 00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 4: that he really likes with players is Francisco Lindor. It 838 00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,600 Speaker 4: feels like he has gotten hurt a lot, like Little Nixon scratches. 839 00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,239 Speaker 4: But it's played one hundred and sixty games or more 840 00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,479 Speaker 4: for three of the last four years, and the fourth 841 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,760 Speaker 4: year was one hundred and fifty two, which is basically 842 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,160 Speaker 4: one hundred and sixty games. 843 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:01,560 Speaker 5: He shows up. 844 00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:05,359 Speaker 4: If he didn't have the injury right now, this would 845 00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:08,680 Speaker 4: be a no brainer. Like Francisco Lindor is in so 846 00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,720 Speaker 4: many ways when you do any kind of risk adjusted analysis, 847 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,960 Speaker 4: is like wildly underrated. He should be a first round pick. 848 00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,239 Speaker 4: There can only be fifteen first round pick, so he 849 00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,160 Speaker 4: was a glad who's a guy who slides into the 850 00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,759 Speaker 4: second round. But if he is still going, and I'll 851 00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,440 Speaker 4: make a case why he may still be going in 852 00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:29,879 Speaker 4: the NFBC pick twenty five twenty six, I think he's 853 00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,480 Speaker 4: an easy smash. Even if you think because of the 854 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 4: handmade injury that his power is a little bit down. 855 00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,160 Speaker 4: If you take those power numbers and drop five home 856 00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,799 Speaker 4: runs off and he suddenly only is a twenty five 857 00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 4: p thirty guy, he's still a great value there. 858 00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,480 Speaker 5: The reason why I think he may stay. 859 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:51,640 Speaker 4: Where he is is starting pitchers is I think that 860 00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 4: you're going to see a lot of the people unless 861 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,239 Speaker 4: Turk Scoobol starts going at the four kind of pick. 862 00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:01,319 Speaker 4: Everybody in those first four or five six picks have 863 00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:04,799 Speaker 4: gone hitter in the first rounds, and I think that 864 00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,359 Speaker 4: there is going to be a race of I don't 865 00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,399 Speaker 4: want to be the guy who misses out on Cris 866 00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 4: Sanchez because he ain't coming back. Well, no kidding, he's 867 00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,800 Speaker 4: not coming back. He may go be going at the 868 00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:16,319 Speaker 4: one two turn. By the time you guys get to 869 00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,200 Speaker 4: be okay, then I want Yamamoto. Yeah no, no, you 870 00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,480 Speaker 4: ain't getting yamamotoho he's already gone, and by definite and 871 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:26,400 Speaker 4: on and on and on, and we see it almost 872 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,960 Speaker 4: every single year, especially with injuries. And we saw an 873 00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,920 Speaker 4: hour before we started recording there's reports about Hunter Green 874 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 4: having an MRI and being out. Every one of those 875 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,240 Speaker 4: guys who go down pushes somebody else up and pushes 876 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,480 Speaker 4: the crowd up. So I think the way that you 877 00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:47,439 Speaker 4: get Francisco Lindor still in twenty six, twenty seven, twenty eight, 878 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,680 Speaker 4: even if he's back in terms of injury, even if 879 00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,480 Speaker 4: he has three home runs in spring training, in the 880 00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:56,600 Speaker 4: remaining games, is that starting pitchers start leapfrogging him and 881 00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,640 Speaker 4: he is one of those guys. Man, I don't really 882 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,839 Speaker 4: want Lindor anymore. And suddenly the guy who took Trek 883 00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:06,960 Speaker 4: Scouble fourth overall is starting with Francisco Lindora, which is 884 00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,360 Speaker 4: a pretty sweet gift if you ask me to that team. 885 00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,759 Speaker 4: So I'm making all this up, but I'm fine with 886 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,799 Speaker 4: all of them. In some ways, Trey Turner has become 887 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,799 Speaker 4: the new most disrespected guy. Trey Turner is just so 888 00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,279 Speaker 4: consistent in what he does. He may not love that 889 00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,440 Speaker 4: profile of what he does, but the batting average is 890 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:30,120 Speaker 4: a nice cushion and Trey Turner. Trey Turner starts sliding 891 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,000 Speaker 4: to the third round because of what I said, like that, 892 00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,640 Speaker 4: that's a fantastic buy for somebody. 893 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Trey Turner is a Hall of Famer. 894 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,160 Speaker 2: I think we're well on that road that he's gonna 895 00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,320 Speaker 2: end up in Cooperstown. You guys think that's exaggerating a 896 00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:42,680 Speaker 2: little bit. 897 00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:45,560 Speaker 3: Maybe makes sense, Jack. 898 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,840 Speaker 4: Say, if he decides he wants to keep playing long enough, 899 00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:52,239 Speaker 4: like he's gonna have some career numbers. I haven't looked 900 00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,200 Speaker 4: at how many career hits does he have, Like he 901 00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:58,120 Speaker 4: must have a plausible path, if not three thousand, to 902 00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,600 Speaker 4: just run up some pretty crazy numbers there. 903 00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:02,880 Speaker 5: So we'll see. 904 00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,359 Speaker 2: Let's we got a couple more that we're gonna go over. 905 00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:06,960 Speaker 2: We're gonna do one more, We're gonna do one in 906 00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,200 Speaker 2: the outfield. We'll do one starting pitcher, and then we'll 907 00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:11,680 Speaker 2: do one relief pitcher. So in the outfield, I think 908 00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,680 Speaker 2: the most interesting one here is probably Brent Rooker and 909 00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,279 Speaker 2: Roman Anthony, who are both being drafted right around that. 910 00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,120 Speaker 2: I mean, Roman Anthony's getting a little bit more expensive. 911 00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:21,440 Speaker 2: I saw him go in the third round of a 912 00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:23,200 Speaker 2: draft the other day. But if you're looking at the 913 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,360 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks of twelve team ADP on the NFBC, 914 00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,480 Speaker 2: it's like pick forty five to fifty type arrange. Brent Rooker, 915 00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:31,880 Speaker 2: who's done it for a couple of years now, Roman Anthony, 916 00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:33,799 Speaker 2: who looks like he could be the next big thing. 917 00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,280 Speaker 2: He hit a massive home run for Team USA yesterday. 918 00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,520 Speaker 2: Vlad do you have a strong feel here? Are you 919 00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:40,799 Speaker 2: kind of happy to get either one? 920 00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,000 Speaker 3: That's a good point that last thing he said there. 921 00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:47,040 Speaker 3: I would be happy with either one. We're talking about, 922 00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,400 Speaker 3: you know, so first of all, the tech startup versus 923 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,520 Speaker 3: you know, or you know versus the government, you know, 924 00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:58,520 Speaker 3: sanction ons. Yeah, right, So Rooker, is that like you 925 00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,440 Speaker 3: just know that what you're getting for the price in 926 00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,640 Speaker 3: the ballpark factor is incredible as long as they're in Sacramento. 927 00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:07,919 Speaker 3: You've got like one hundred and five plus degree heat 928 00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,600 Speaker 3: in the summer, the balls flying out there, the offense 929 00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,239 Speaker 3: is fantastic, and in some respects, I almost feel like 930 00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,919 Speaker 3: Rooker was a little almost like underrated because of Nick 931 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,600 Speaker 3: Kurtz in the season that he had and Tyler Soderstorm 932 00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:24,279 Speaker 3: coming up, Jacob Wilson being an All Star. So Brent 933 00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,320 Speaker 3: Rooker is is a little underappreciated, and you should be 934 00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,480 Speaker 3: happy if you get Brent Rooker in your trade. But 935 00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:34,840 Speaker 3: Roman Anthony, he's Facebook, he's Twitter. 936 00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,280 Speaker 5: This guy, you're buying the bitcoin? 937 00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,240 Speaker 3: Fat you buy. I have my own, my own bitcoin, 938 00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:40,719 Speaker 3: and I have it. 939 00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,000 Speaker 5: But the last couple of days been better. 940 00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:46,920 Speaker 3: Anyways, go on, bitcoin goes down. That's the difference. He's 941 00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:50,200 Speaker 3: not bitcoin because Roman Anthony will only go Romano. This 942 00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,600 Speaker 3: guy is the truth. This has been my guy. I 943 00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,520 Speaker 3: don't say my guy, I actually hate because because you know, 944 00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:59,000 Speaker 3: because then we're all sharing guys. Everybody loves Roman Anthony. 945 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:00,560 Speaker 3: The one thing I was afraid of was that he 946 00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,000 Speaker 3: was going to get a spot on the WBC. He was, 947 00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,760 Speaker 3: you know, going to be forefront center, you know, national attention, 948 00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,279 Speaker 3: and then the price just starts to rise. You guys know, 949 00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,759 Speaker 3: I write a this Year's Yelich article every year. You 950 00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,800 Speaker 3: know Suzuki last year, Jazz the year before. Roman Anthony 951 00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:16,920 Speaker 3: would technically be the guy. But he's going to go 952 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 3: into a draft price range where he doesn't even kind 953 00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,440 Speaker 3: of fit the criteria for this article. But you know, 954 00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,280 Speaker 3: this is a guy that I honestly think it stays healthy. 955 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:27,040 Speaker 3: He's going to be a future Hall of Famer. I 956 00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,640 Speaker 3: think he's going to be an immediate impact on this team. 957 00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,680 Speaker 3: We already saw it last year. Hits bombs could steal 958 00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:33,640 Speaker 3: some bases. He's going to score a hundred plus runs. 959 00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:35,440 Speaker 3: So I love him. You know, guys, you know, you 960 00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,800 Speaker 3: guys know me. I love to take to take risks 961 00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,560 Speaker 3: with the young guys and especially the really good ones. 962 00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 3: So you know, push comes to shove, I would go 963 00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:45,439 Speaker 3: if I'm feeling frisky, risky that day, I'm taking Roman 964 00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:46,359 Speaker 3: Anthony over Rob. 965 00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,359 Speaker 2: You got any worry about the ground balls at all? 966 00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:50,799 Speaker 2: About the launch angle ground balls? Does that worry about 967 00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,640 Speaker 2: the home run total? Potentially that's the only thing for me. 968 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,640 Speaker 2: That's pretty much the only thing that worries me with him. 969 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:00,960 Speaker 5: The ground balls. 970 00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:02,919 Speaker 3: Oh you're asking me either one of you. 971 00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,200 Speaker 5: No, he hyped Christian Yelich. 972 00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,400 Speaker 4: At a time Christian Yelich was hitting ninety two percent 973 00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:10,480 Speaker 4: ground balls. 974 00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,520 Speaker 5: Lad can get over the ground ball, right, Yeah, that's 975 00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:15,839 Speaker 5: a good point. Sorry, Black, you go no, no. 976 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,640 Speaker 3: No, that's I mean, I mean no. The end of 977 00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,400 Speaker 3: the day, the profile for me is a like a 978 00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,600 Speaker 3: borderline first round guy. So so then he hits for 979 00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,680 Speaker 3: higher average and he still scores all those runs hitting 980 00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,719 Speaker 3: a top of the lineup with story controllers the rest 981 00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:30,720 Speaker 3: of the guys behind him. 982 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,160 Speaker 4: So let me ask you this question, vladd because I 983 00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,359 Speaker 4: have not gotten Roman Anthony in any drafts that I've 984 00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,480 Speaker 4: done this year. And it's not that I think that 985 00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 4: Roman Anthony is crap. Obviously, Roman Anthony was the number 986 00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,319 Speaker 4: one prospect in baseball year ago. At this time, he 987 00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,840 Speaker 4: was Connor Griffin before Connor Griffin was Connor Griffin. Let's 988 00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:53,640 Speaker 4: give me your eightieth percentile outcome, so like plausible but 989 00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:57,160 Speaker 4: a really good twenty twenty sixth season, what is your 990 00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:59,359 Speaker 4: line for like the eightieth percentile? 991 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,880 Speaker 5: Roman Anthony this year to. 992 00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:11,640 Speaker 3: Seventy two average with ninety four runs, twenty three home runs, 993 00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:18,919 Speaker 3: eighty one are eighty one RBI and fourteen steals. 994 00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:23,520 Speaker 5: Okay, that's really good season. Like for is what is 995 00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,920 Speaker 5: he sixteen years old, now seventeen years old, now. 996 00:48:25,840 --> 00:48:28,759 Speaker 4: Has only seventeen he's got he's got to come to 997 00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,000 Speaker 4: Quebec if he wants to buy a beer. I think 998 00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:34,280 Speaker 4: it's still Roman Anthony. No, like, that's a really good season. 999 00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,520 Speaker 4: I thought you were going to do something and I 1000 00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:39,040 Speaker 4: love you've led, but like something more Lattie, which is like, 1001 00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:42,040 Speaker 4: I think he's thirty six home runs, twenty eight stolen 1002 00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:46,560 Speaker 4: bases and if he hits a point below three twenty one, 1003 00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,279 Speaker 4: I'll be shocked. And you said eighty at all, you 1004 00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:52,880 Speaker 4: said eightio ninety nine. It's not ninety ninth percent a. 1005 00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,799 Speaker 4: I asked the question very specific. It's not fiftieth percentile. 1006 00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:59,360 Speaker 4: So it's not necessarily what your VDP projections would show. 1007 00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,440 Speaker 4: It's a good season, but not the best possible scenario. 1008 00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:05,160 Speaker 4: So I'll tell you the things that have not allowed 1009 00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:07,680 Speaker 4: me to draft him so far. So the first thing 1010 00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:12,520 Speaker 4: is he had last year, in his basically half a season, 1011 00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:16,319 Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty stolen base opportunities. That is a 1012 00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:19,720 Speaker 4: Baseball Reference statistic, which means you are on first base 1013 00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:23,000 Speaker 4: or second base with the following base open, how many 1014 00:49:23,080 --> 00:49:26,080 Speaker 4: chances did you have to steal one hundred and fifty 1015 00:49:26,120 --> 00:49:28,279 Speaker 4: which is a lot, which is not surprising. It is 1016 00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,480 Speaker 4: a great on base percentage, and last year at a 1017 00:49:30,560 --> 00:49:34,680 Speaker 4: really good batting average, he only attempted five stolen bases. 1018 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,600 Speaker 4: Now with most And this is my thing with that statistic. 1019 00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,640 Speaker 4: Usually I use it to say I don't think guy 1020 00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,480 Speaker 4: X is going to run as much because this regresses 1021 00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,799 Speaker 4: down and he was just running too much. And he's 1022 00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,040 Speaker 4: not Ricky Henderson, so I think that Guy X is 1023 00:49:49,040 --> 00:49:51,480 Speaker 4: going to run less. And if you're aggress it down 1024 00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,480 Speaker 4: like suddenly he's an eighteen stolen based guy instead of 1025 00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:58,480 Speaker 4: a twenty eight swolen based guy. The same should apply 1026 00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:01,600 Speaker 4: with Roman Anthony. Like he is no Alejandro Kirk. He's 1027 00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,760 Speaker 4: a fast baseball player, and he's young, so you would 1028 00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:09,080 Speaker 4: expect if he gets three hundred stolen base opportunities, double 1029 00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:12,160 Speaker 4: it or some or someplus or minus. And he's hitting leadoff, 1030 00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,319 Speaker 4: which means at least once per game if he gets 1031 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,879 Speaker 4: on base, there is by definition nobody else on base. 1032 00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:18,280 Speaker 5: He should try more. 1033 00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:22,160 Speaker 4: I don't understand why Roman Anthony didn't try more stolen 1034 00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:26,000 Speaker 4: bases last year, like why was he just not running? 1035 00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:27,560 Speaker 5: And I don't buy that. 1036 00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,960 Speaker 4: It's well, but he was brand new, so he's focused 1037 00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:33,480 Speaker 4: on something else, like he's a baseball player this part 1038 00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:37,000 Speaker 4: of his game, Like why wasn't he running and why 1039 00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,839 Speaker 4: is he suddenly going to start running more? Now, when 1040 00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,520 Speaker 4: you say twelve fourteen, fifteen stolen bases over the course 1041 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,400 Speaker 4: of a six month season, you're not saying he's gonna 1042 00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,799 Speaker 4: start running crazy amounts. So really, like you could look 1043 00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:52,840 Speaker 4: your answer to me, Vlad could be well, actually, I 1044 00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,600 Speaker 4: don't think he's going to start running that much. He's 1045 00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:57,760 Speaker 4: going to pick his spots and he's getting on bass 1046 00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:01,600 Speaker 4: so often that he's just like or Raphael is on 1047 00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:03,840 Speaker 4: batting ninth ahead of him and they do a double 1048 00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:08,080 Speaker 4: steal twice this year, and suddenly he's at twelve stolen bases. 1049 00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:10,480 Speaker 5: But that struck me as a weird thing. 1050 00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,560 Speaker 4: And then the second thing is the babbit is like 1051 00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:16,839 Speaker 4: he had a really high babbit last year, babbit over 1052 00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:21,440 Speaker 4: four hundred, which is almost certainly unsustainable. But again you're 1053 00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,439 Speaker 4: not claiming that you think he's going to hit three 1054 00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:24,640 Speaker 4: twenty right now. 1055 00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,120 Speaker 5: Now he hits the ball very hard. 1056 00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:28,400 Speaker 4: So there's when you're when you hit the ball very 1057 00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:31,880 Speaker 4: hard and you have speed, you can have an elevated babbit. 1058 00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,440 Speaker 4: But as Joe said, he hits it on the ground 1059 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,279 Speaker 4: a lot. So I'm curious when you look at the 1060 00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:40,799 Speaker 4: public projections at fangrafts, they're basically unanimous at a two 1061 00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,240 Speaker 4: sixty two sixty five batting average. So you say eightieth 1062 00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:48,720 Speaker 4: percentile to seventy to seventy five, whatever you said, Vlad, 1063 00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:52,120 Speaker 4: you're basically saying a little bit better. But those are 1064 00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,000 Speaker 4: the reasons why I've been hesitant because he has the 1065 00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,879 Speaker 4: profile to be a five category stud, but I worry 1066 00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,960 Speaker 4: if he's not running and like he's the it's going 1067 00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:03,759 Speaker 4: to hit the ball line drives are in the air 1068 00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,879 Speaker 4: a little bit more. But doesn't make him a bad guy, 1069 00:52:07,000 --> 00:52:08,920 Speaker 4: Like he doesn't need a lot to go different from 1070 00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:12,560 Speaker 4: last year to suddenly be a third round value and 1071 00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:14,480 Speaker 4: there's by for sure upside from there. 1072 00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:15,399 Speaker 5: Sorry, Joe, that's a lot. 1073 00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:16,080 Speaker 1: No, that's good. 1074 00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:17,960 Speaker 2: That's what the people are here for is to hear 1075 00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,400 Speaker 2: you guys get back and forth on it. Anthony is 1076 00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:23,040 Speaker 2: a very polarizing player, like the fifteen percent barrel a 1077 00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,480 Speaker 2: sixty percent hard hit rate as a rookie in your 1078 00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:29,200 Speaker 2: first cup of coffee is outrageous. Just lift the damn ball. Please, 1079 00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:30,359 Speaker 2: just lift the damn ball. 1080 00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:31,200 Speaker 1: Guys. 1081 00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:32,759 Speaker 2: We're going to keep it going with a couple more, 1082 00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:34,359 Speaker 2: but first, just want to remind you that the show 1083 00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:36,919 Speaker 2: is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet. 1084 00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:38,600 Speaker 2: If you haven't tried your first bet on hard rock, 1085 00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:39,920 Speaker 2: there's still time for you to get one hundred and 1086 00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:41,879 Speaker 2: fifty bonus bets if you win. 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Concerned about gambling in Florida, 1097 00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,680 Speaker 6: I call one eight three three play wise in Indiana, 1098 00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:10,400 Speaker 6: if you are someone you know is a gambling problem, 1099 00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:12,640 Speaker 6: laws help called one eight hundred and nine with it 1100 00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,320 Speaker 6: gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, 1101 00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:18,040 Speaker 6: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 1102 00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:18,840 Speaker 1: Guys. 1103 00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:20,560 Speaker 2: Two more, We're gonna do a little rapid fire here 1104 00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,400 Speaker 2: for the pitchers. This one is kind of a it 1105 00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,440 Speaker 2: feels polarizing to me a little bit. And again, what 1106 00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:27,799 Speaker 2: you guys have talked about the established name versus the 1107 00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:31,400 Speaker 2: young name Zach Wheeler and Emicchihan has been a question 1108 00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:32,520 Speaker 2: that I've seen a few times. 1109 00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:33,760 Speaker 1: I've been asked a few times. 1110 00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,200 Speaker 2: And even in draft rooms, You're sitting there thinking you 1111 00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:37,920 Speaker 2: got the next big thing in Sheian and you have 1112 00:53:38,080 --> 00:53:40,400 Speaker 2: a guy in Wheeler who's been so reliable but coming 1113 00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:43,960 Speaker 2: off of a pretty dangerous type of injury here, especially 1114 00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:47,279 Speaker 2: at his age. Vlad, I know you liked both of them, 1115 00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:48,640 Speaker 2: but if you had to just take one, would you 1116 00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,600 Speaker 2: go with your Dodger or would you maybe go with 1117 00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:52,040 Speaker 2: the older Zach Wheeler. 1118 00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:57,840 Speaker 3: Well, it is it's never a good idea to draft 1119 00:53:57,880 --> 00:54:01,120 Speaker 3: fantasy players because you like them for your team. Although 1120 00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,719 Speaker 3: there are obviously exceptions. If you're a Dodgers fan versus 1121 00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:08,360 Speaker 3: a Nationals fan, you can make an exception. That said, 1122 00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:10,640 Speaker 3: I love em and she Han very much. I think 1123 00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:15,840 Speaker 3: Imagian is on the verge of stardom, and I think 1124 00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:19,080 Speaker 3: he has an outside chance of even being their best starter, 1125 00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:21,239 Speaker 3: as crazy as it might sound, In fact, he was. 1126 00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:23,440 Speaker 3: It's out of outside of Yamamoto, he was their next 1127 00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:27,240 Speaker 3: best starter last season. You know, high walk, ray, massive, 1128 00:54:27,239 --> 00:54:29,560 Speaker 3: swinging strike, great all through the miners and the majors 1129 00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:31,920 Speaker 3: last year. Everything is going to be limited on the innings, 1130 00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:35,880 Speaker 3: but I do like to take risks. And if and 1131 00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,120 Speaker 3: if Zach Wheeler's timetable keeps getting pushed up and up 1132 00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,279 Speaker 3: and he really might return in April, how can I 1133 00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,280 Speaker 3: not take Wheeler? How can I not get a guy 1134 00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,240 Speaker 3: who potentially could be, you know, the top three pitcher 1135 00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:50,640 Speaker 3: like he has been over the last half decade plus 1136 00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,560 Speaker 3: and not take him there at you know, one hundred 1137 00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:55,560 Speaker 3: hundred and ten ADP. In fact, that's what I've been 1138 00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,000 Speaker 3: doing in drafts lately, and usually that's when she And 1139 00:54:58,120 --> 00:54:58,920 Speaker 3: is still on the board. 1140 00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:02,759 Speaker 4: So here's what I'd say, very quickly, Emmitchen is going 1141 00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,279 Speaker 4: to be the guy in the next month who has 1142 00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:08,200 Speaker 4: the most helium of any pitcher, unless Zach Wheeler has 1143 00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,080 Speaker 4: announced that he's going to open the season in the 1144 00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:13,400 Speaker 4: rotation and or will miss one turn and he'll be 1145 00:55:13,440 --> 00:55:17,160 Speaker 4: pitching by like literally the second time around. I think 1146 00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:22,200 Speaker 4: Emmettchian started this winter in a clump with Trey Savage 1147 00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:25,640 Speaker 4: and with all Bubbah and with all of the rookie 1148 00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:30,879 Speaker 4: or McLain, all the rookie slash second year pitchers, and 1149 00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:33,839 Speaker 4: then people started digging in and he ain't with those 1150 00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:37,680 Speaker 4: guys anymore. So last year it was Christopher Sanchez who 1151 00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:41,600 Speaker 4: every single day just kept going up and up and up. 1152 00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,920 Speaker 4: If you are going into an NFBC draft over the 1153 00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:47,919 Speaker 4: next month, what I would say is do not look 1154 00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:51,919 Speaker 4: at his ADP since November because you will not get him. 1155 00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:55,160 Speaker 4: And that may be okay, but if you want him, 1156 00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,640 Speaker 4: I would look at what is the latest he has 1157 00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:59,919 Speaker 4: gone or the earliest he has gone in the last 1158 00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:02,399 Speaker 4: three days, and if you want him, that's where you're 1159 00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,040 Speaker 4: going to take him. I think he is a fifth 1160 00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:08,200 Speaker 4: sixth round pick by the time people get to Las Vegas, 1161 00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:09,680 Speaker 4: and it's nowhere near there. 1162 00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:11,000 Speaker 5: If I did bold predictions. 1163 00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,200 Speaker 4: I would do exactly what Vlad said, which is he 1164 00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,200 Speaker 4: out earns Yamamoto and it's. 1165 00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:16,840 Speaker 5: Not particularly close. 1166 00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:20,040 Speaker 4: Wheeler is more difficult to value because of all the 1167 00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:24,000 Speaker 4: reasons Vlad said. But Shean's a stud. If I could 1168 00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:27,080 Speaker 4: leave a draft with she and is my SP three, 1169 00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:30,120 Speaker 4: I'd be thrilled. And it's going to be hard if 1170 00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:33,880 Speaker 4: I'm right where his adp lands, because you want to 1171 00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:37,400 Speaker 4: close her probably by then, and taking two starters before 1172 00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:40,680 Speaker 4: the sixth rounds plus a closer plush she in around 1173 00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:42,920 Speaker 4: there is tough. But I think Shean's going to have 1174 00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:46,360 Speaker 4: everybody likes Shean. There's nobody sorry, go ahead. 1175 00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:48,880 Speaker 3: I was gonna say, yeah. So do you think the 1176 00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:50,920 Speaker 3: fact that he's going to be in a six man 1177 00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:51,680 Speaker 3: rotation is. 1178 00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,960 Speaker 4: Going to curb some of that helium a little bit? 1179 00:56:54,320 --> 00:56:56,880 Speaker 4: It's a great question, Flad's. It was one of the 1180 00:56:57,000 --> 00:57:00,960 Speaker 4: arguments early against Yamamoto. Is I think that last year 1181 00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:03,000 Speaker 4: and you're a Dodgers fan, I'm not a Dodgers fan. 1182 00:57:03,239 --> 00:57:05,320 Speaker 4: Last year people are like, we have but the Dodgers 1183 00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,799 Speaker 4: let Yamamoto go long last year? Why would they not 1184 00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,560 Speaker 4: do that this year? I think last year the Dodgers 1185 00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:15,040 Speaker 4: had no choice at big stretches of the season. Why 1186 00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:17,880 Speaker 4: because Kershaw wasn't ready to pitch yet, Otani wasn't ready 1187 00:57:17,880 --> 00:57:21,000 Speaker 4: to pitch yet, glass Now wasn't healthy, Snell wasn't healthy, 1188 00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,720 Speaker 4: and there were stretches of the season where it's like, 1189 00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:27,760 Speaker 4: we don't have the traditional Dodgers luxury to just push 1190 00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:30,840 Speaker 4: Yamamoto to the phantom ayel for two weeks, or we're 1191 00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,360 Speaker 4: skipping him this time, or we're giving him two extra 1192 00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:39,680 Speaker 4: days rest. I Dodgers are going to be awesome. I 1193 00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,720 Speaker 4: think that the Dodgers are going to have less of 1194 00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:45,480 Speaker 4: a six man rotation than people think, because I think 1195 00:57:45,520 --> 00:57:46,760 Speaker 4: glass Now is going to be hurt. 1196 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,360 Speaker 5: I think Snell is all already hurt. 1197 00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:51,840 Speaker 4: I think they're going to want to save more bullets 1198 00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:56,400 Speaker 4: in Yamamoto's arsenal for October than they did last year. 1199 00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:59,960 Speaker 4: Not that he wasn't awesome told the last freaking unfortunate 1200 00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,800 Speaker 4: time he appeared in Game seven of the World Series. 1201 00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,440 Speaker 4: But I think that if things are going well and 1202 00:58:05,480 --> 00:58:08,520 Speaker 4: they're further ahead in the NL West, they also there 1203 00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:11,240 Speaker 4: were times last year it's stupid to look back when 1204 00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,600 Speaker 4: the Dodgers we actually need to start winning games, guys, 1205 00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:15,640 Speaker 4: because there are other teams that are like past us 1206 00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:19,200 Speaker 4: and close to us, I think they're gonna I think 1207 00:58:19,240 --> 00:58:21,080 Speaker 4: they want to wrest those guys. I think the one 1208 00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:23,360 Speaker 4: guy who like is just going to stay healthy and 1209 00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:24,840 Speaker 4: just going to keep going is Shem. 1210 00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,160 Speaker 5: And also it's like we live in a world. As 1211 00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:29,440 Speaker 5: you know, one hundred. 1212 00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:31,760 Speaker 4: And fifty innings of Shean is more than enough to 1213 00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:34,240 Speaker 4: be a top ten starting pitcher, right like one hundred 1214 00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:37,200 Speaker 4: and fifty. And that's also an argument for Zack Wheeler, 1215 00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,080 Speaker 4: Zach Wheeler, if they are like guys, guys, guys, we've 1216 00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,320 Speaker 4: gotten a little bit ahead of ourselves. Zach Wheeler will 1217 00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:46,640 Speaker 4: will debut May first. That's not a terrible thing, Like 1218 00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:49,560 Speaker 4: you'll you'll the easiest time of the year in any 1219 00:58:49,600 --> 00:58:52,120 Speaker 4: fantasy league to manage an injury at the beginning of 1220 00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:54,200 Speaker 4: the year. If you draft Zach Wheeler, you know you 1221 00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:58,120 Speaker 4: need a tenth pitcher. You know you need an eighth 1222 00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:02,360 Speaker 4: starting pitcher to backfill for Zach Wheeler, So you draft accordingly. 1223 00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,360 Speaker 4: And it's like Zach Wheeler, if he's good and he's 1224 00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:07,920 Speaker 4: healthy the rest of the season, can easily be a 1225 00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,560 Speaker 4: top ten starting pitcher. At one hundred and fifty innings. 1226 00:59:10,600 --> 00:59:12,280 Speaker 4: How do I know, because he just did a last 1227 00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:14,880 Speaker 4: yair like that's not hard. 1228 00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:17,360 Speaker 3: On that level you want to talk about. I don't 1229 00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,520 Speaker 3: even call this bowl. This is probably something that's just 1230 00:59:19,560 --> 00:59:22,080 Speaker 3: from our experience. We know what's going to happen. River 1231 00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:25,080 Speaker 3: Ryan will be like a top two hundred pick by 1232 00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:27,040 Speaker 3: the time we get to Vegas. If it looks like 1233 00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:28,920 Speaker 3: he's going to get a spawn in their rotation, yes. 1234 00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:31,600 Speaker 4: Which which seems which seemed, which seems sort of like 1235 00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,520 Speaker 4: like like with Sazaki news and with the Snell is 1236 00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:38,919 Speaker 4: definitely not like I think that's I think, I don't 1237 00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:41,640 Speaker 4: think I think I think that's yes. I wish I 1238 00:59:41,640 --> 00:59:43,760 Speaker 4: had taken him in DC's all Winter for a wing 1239 00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:44,760 Speaker 4: name really cheap. 1240 00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,200 Speaker 2: I got one share and I'm going to hang onto 1241 00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:50,320 Speaker 2: that one share. We got one last debate and we'll 1242 00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:53,080 Speaker 2: we'll go quickly here. But it's interesting because one of 1243 00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,720 Speaker 2: them was a closer who was the best closer in 1244 00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:56,760 Speaker 2: baseball last year, and the other guy was sent down 1245 00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,080 Speaker 2: by the Pirates in April, and yet they're being drafted 1246 00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:02,360 Speaker 2: this dame and that's David Bednar and a rold As 1247 01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:05,800 Speaker 2: Chapman both right around pick sixty five, Blad, we'll start 1248 01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:06,240 Speaker 2: with you here. 1249 01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:09,440 Speaker 1: Do you have a strong feel I don't really love. 1250 01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,800 Speaker 2: Taking either, but the way the closers get pushed up 1251 01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:13,320 Speaker 2: the board, I think that a lot of people feel 1252 01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:15,920 Speaker 2: desperation come in when they're all gone, and then you're 1253 01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:18,120 Speaker 2: sitting there with just Bednar and Chapman. 1254 01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:20,000 Speaker 1: So if you're going to take one of them here, 1255 01:00:20,040 --> 01:00:20,640 Speaker 1: who would it be? 1256 01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:25,080 Speaker 3: I will preface this by saying, if you do not 1257 01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:28,120 Speaker 3: feel very strongly about either Chapman or Bednar, but you 1258 01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:32,959 Speaker 3: do like a Jeff Hoffman or Ryan Walker, whoever it is, later, 1259 01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:35,360 Speaker 3: then just wait because this is a part of the 1260 01:00:35,440 --> 01:00:38,560 Speaker 3: draft in you know, in even deeper twelve teamers, these 1261 01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:40,400 Speaker 3: guys are going in the seventies and eighties, and fifteen 1262 01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,280 Speaker 3: teamers are going in the sixties. Like you, you're giving up. 1263 01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,640 Speaker 3: There's a big opportunity cost on what you're giving up 1264 01:00:45,680 --> 01:00:48,000 Speaker 3: as far as good hitters here or even other good 1265 01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:51,720 Speaker 3: starting pitchers, So don't do it. I do prefer Bednar. 1266 01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:54,320 Speaker 3: I think this is a guy that was an elite 1267 01:00:54,360 --> 01:00:59,040 Speaker 3: reliever for two plus seasons with the Pirates. He managed 1268 01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:01,680 Speaker 3: an era like under two five. He had a thirty 1269 01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,280 Speaker 3: percent strikeout rate, seven and a half percent walk rate, 1270 01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:08,080 Speaker 3: which always nice you like to see with with your closers. 1271 01:01:08,440 --> 01:01:10,920 Speaker 3: It feels to me like he's kind of like born 1272 01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:13,440 Speaker 3: to be a pitch. Like I remember when he was 1273 01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:15,600 Speaker 3: a pirate was saying like if he ever made it 1274 01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,120 Speaker 3: the meat Yankees, it would just be the perfect place 1275 01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:20,480 Speaker 3: for somebody like that to shine. And I think he's 1276 01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:24,280 Speaker 3: really going to. With Chapman, I don't have any massive 1277 01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,200 Speaker 3: issues with him. He was obviously the top closer in 1278 01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:29,080 Speaker 3: baseball last year. He held opposing batters to a one 1279 01:01:29,200 --> 01:01:32,120 Speaker 3: thirty one average. The whip was insane, it was like 1280 01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:35,360 Speaker 3: point seven, and even a career low walk rate of 1281 01:01:35,440 --> 01:01:38,720 Speaker 3: six point six. I don't have a strong you know, 1282 01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,120 Speaker 3: any stats or anything to back it up, but I 1283 01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:44,600 Speaker 3: just don't feel great about a follow up. You know, 1284 01:01:44,720 --> 01:01:46,920 Speaker 3: call it instinct whatever it is, and can also be 1285 01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:49,080 Speaker 3: flat out wrong. It could end up just being you know, gout, 1286 01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:52,520 Speaker 3: you know, indigestion. But I don't trust or all this 1287 01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:56,000 Speaker 3: Chapmen around where he goes, or at least versus some 1288 01:01:56,080 --> 01:01:56,720 Speaker 3: of the other ones. 1289 01:01:57,720 --> 01:01:59,080 Speaker 5: I'll give a very quick answer. 1290 01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:03,600 Speaker 4: There are four closers that are four sometimes five closers 1291 01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,600 Speaker 4: that are going in the top one fifty in the 1292 01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,800 Speaker 4: NFBC that I am fading. Neither of them are Hater 1293 01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:13,040 Speaker 4: or are sorry are Bednar or Chapman. One of them 1294 01:02:13,120 --> 01:02:17,400 Speaker 4: is hater. Both of the Milwaukee closers Esteves, and the 1295 01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:21,840 Speaker 4: fifth ish is ken Lee Jansen. If Kenlee drops enough, 1296 01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:24,960 Speaker 4: then I'll take Jansen. Those are the five that I 1297 01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:28,160 Speaker 4: am fading, as in, they have to fall a lot 1298 01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:31,520 Speaker 4: for me to take them as my closer. Hater may 1299 01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:35,240 Speaker 4: like hater is one piece of news away from being undraftable. 1300 01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:38,120 Speaker 4: Everything else for closers this year is the room is 1301 01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:41,040 Speaker 4: going to determine for me who I take, which doesn't 1302 01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:44,240 Speaker 4: mean I'm passive. You can't be passive and say, oh, 1303 01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:46,400 Speaker 4: I'll wait till the next one, because all three of 1304 01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:49,040 Speaker 4: those next ones are gone and then you start chasing 1305 01:02:49,080 --> 01:02:51,560 Speaker 4: your tail and you're in real trouble. So you need 1306 01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:54,560 Speaker 4: to be aggressive. But the room will decide it. And 1307 01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:57,720 Speaker 4: I don't have strong, strong feelings beyond those ones that 1308 01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:01,720 Speaker 4: just for me, and I fully acknowledge I could be 1309 01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:04,760 Speaker 4: very wrong, but they're the ones that I'm not taking 1310 01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,920 Speaker 4: anywhere close to ADP. So on this debate, it's like 1311 01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,840 Speaker 4: the I think I'd rather bet Gnar pretty clearly than Chapman. 1312 01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:14,080 Speaker 4: But I'm just fine if I leave a draft with 1313 01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:16,360 Speaker 4: Chapman as one of my two closers. 1314 01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:18,919 Speaker 3: And if you keep playing that game that Rob's talking 1315 01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:20,720 Speaker 3: about where I just keep waiting, keep waiting. All of 1316 01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:22,720 Speaker 3: a sudden, you're looking at your roster. You've got Victor 1317 01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:25,720 Speaker 3: Vodnik and Clayton Beeter, and you might as well go 1318 01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:26,560 Speaker 3: draft another team. 1319 01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:29,360 Speaker 5: Yeah, yes, fat. 1320 01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:31,840 Speaker 2: I can't thank you guys enough for taking the time. 1321 01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:33,800 Speaker 2: I know that the viewers are gonna love this one, 1322 01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:35,920 Speaker 2: especially the high stage viewers. But I hope even if 1323 01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:37,800 Speaker 2: you're just playing in a ten team league with your buddies, 1324 01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:40,240 Speaker 2: you got some good knowledge here and helping you make 1325 01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:43,360 Speaker 2: those decisions. Guys could quickly just let everybody know where 1326 01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:44,000 Speaker 2: they can where they can. 1327 01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:45,240 Speaker 1: Keep up with your work. Robins over with. 1328 01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:50,000 Speaker 4: You just Launchangle available anywhere you get podcasts, Blood. 1329 01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,640 Speaker 3: FTN Fantasy, do a little work on fangrafts as well. 1330 01:03:54,680 --> 01:03:57,720 Speaker 3: But yeah, come come check out our work and man, Robs, 1331 01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,360 Speaker 3: this is like a blast from the past. Honestly, I 1332 01:04:00,360 --> 01:04:02,680 Speaker 3: don't think there's anyone that's more pleasure young. 1333 01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:04,960 Speaker 4: I can't believe it took Young Joe to bring us 1334 01:04:04,960 --> 01:04:07,520 Speaker 4: back together on a podcast five for here we are thank. 1335 01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:09,040 Speaker 2: Young je I'm trying to perform a service for the 1336 01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:11,400 Speaker 2: fantasy community here. Truly, these guys are two of the 1337 01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,880 Speaker 2: absolute best fantasy baseball players in the world. Make sure 1338 01:04:13,880 --> 01:04:16,280 Speaker 2: you are following them at Roto Gut at Rob Silver. 1339 01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,880 Speaker 2: We will be back again for tons of more content 1340 01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,240 Speaker 2: here over the next couple weeks Fantasy Fest. Tons of 1341 01:04:21,240 --> 01:04:22,920 Speaker 2: great guests coming up on the channel, so make sure 1342 01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:25,520 Speaker 2: you guys are following and subscribing. For Rob Silver and 1343 01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,920 Speaker 2: Vlad Sedler, I'm Joel Rico. We'll talk to you next 1344 01:04:27,920 --> 01:04:30,160 Speaker 2: time right here on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. 1345 01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:34,280 Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 1346 01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:36,880 Speaker 7: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 1347 01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,840 Speaker 7: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 1348 01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:43,600 Speaker 7: or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at 1349 01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:46,600 Speaker 7: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube 1350 01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:48,800 Speaker 7: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB