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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 1: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 1: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent

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Speaker 1: coverage that is possible. If you like what we're all about,

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Speaker 1: it just means the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 1: But enough with that, Let's get to the show. All right,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Counterpoints, and we promise we are working

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Speaker 1: on intro music, so used to have to stop kind

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Speaker 1: of humming something to yourself when you see that logo.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk most of this show about midterms,

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Speaker 1: mid term fallout, leadership elections in Congress that are shaken

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Speaker 1: up by the midterm fallout. But first, two pieces of

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Speaker 1: news breaking last night and this morning. First, the new

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Speaker 1: inflation report shows the numbers cooling seven point seven percent annualized. Now,

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Speaker 1: nobody's going to celebrate seven point seven percent inflation year

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Speaker 1: over year, but compared to eight percent plus, that's the

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Speaker 1: trajectory that you want to go. How do you think?

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Speaker 1: And there was also and we're going to talk to

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Speaker 1: Serota for a weekend segment, Serota point flagged this Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley report that said that the way that voters responded

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Speaker 1: to inflation in this midterm suggests that there might actually

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Speaker 1: be more policy room for fiscal policy that actually, wait,

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Speaker 1: maybe maybe full employment is something that people like more

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Speaker 1: than they dislike inflation. So they were basically warning their

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Speaker 1: clients look out, there could be some more fiscal headroom

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Speaker 1: here for policymakers in Washington. So don't get your hopes

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Speaker 1: up too much on a grand bargain that cuts Medicaid, Medicare,

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Speaker 1: social Security, which Biden took off the table yesterday. So

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Speaker 1: the fact that you're now seeing this cooling, could this

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Speaker 1: signal the end of or the beginning of the end

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Speaker 1: of the Fed's monetary policy tightening? You think, I hope

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Speaker 1: it's the beginning of the end, but I still do

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Speaker 1: worry that it's more of the beginning, and that we

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Speaker 1: don't know how how bad this is going to continue

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Speaker 1: to get. Because again, the left makes this point a lot.

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Speaker 1: There's really nothing Joe Biden can do about Vladimir Putin

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Speaker 1: at this point. I mean, the only thing he can

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Speaker 1: do right is pump oil out of the strategic reserve

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Speaker 1: for political purposes heading into a mid turn. Well, people

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Speaker 1: have voted now, so I think gas prices are going

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Speaker 1: to head back up. Well, the strategic reserve, I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's out of a historic low. They're going to have

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Speaker 1: to start filling it back up right, Well and speak,

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Speaker 1: I voted, Joe Biden, Thanks you for your votes. Gas

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Speaker 1: prices are going back up now. Speaking of that, there's

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Speaker 1: news out of ukratin the other sort of bit of

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Speaker 1: breaking news we wanted to touch on before diving into

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Speaker 1: what we know more about the midterms. Here what happened, right,

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Speaker 1: and Biden made an interesting comment that felt a little narcissistic,

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Speaker 1: And then I thought about it more and I'm like, well,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute, is there something to this? So Biden

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Speaker 1: so Putin announced that there was going to be broad

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Speaker 1: retreat from Curson, which would avoid this this Titanic battle

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Speaker 1: that people have been speculating is just just around the corner,

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Speaker 1: and that Russia was likely to eventually lose. He announced

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Speaker 1: He's going to lead, They're retreating from Cerson. It was

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Speaker 1: initially met with some skepticism, but it does appear to

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Speaker 1: be real, Like areas around there are being liberated regularly.

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Speaker 1: And all indications are that this is accurate. Biden said

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Speaker 1: it his press conference yesterday that intelligence that the United

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Speaker 1: States had indicated that they were in fact going to

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Speaker 1: retreat from cursone, and he said, I find it interesting

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Speaker 1: that Putin saved this until after the midterms. And at

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Speaker 1: first I was like, that's absurd, and I'm like, well,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute. He did actually announce this, like we

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Speaker 1: knew it was going to happen, and he held the

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Speaker 1: announcement till after the midterms. What does that say, if

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Speaker 1: it's true, about how Putin sees the war in Ukraine

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Speaker 1: playing into domestic politics and what his interests are in

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Speaker 1: the outcome of our politics. Yeah, I think it's that's

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Speaker 1: a really good question. And Biden, by the way, was

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Speaker 1: in a hell of a mood yesterday. He was feeling

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Speaker 1: good early in the right. It's like four pm. That's

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Speaker 1: pretty I mean it's early for him, it's dinner time.

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Speaker 1: It was. He was feeling it was feeling great yesterday. Interesting, Right,

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Speaker 1: it's some interesting one liners. Well, I think we have

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Speaker 1: always known that, especially Putin and his government, believes that

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Speaker 1: we are very vulnerable and that our divisions make us

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Speaker 1: vulnerable to sort of out said manipulation. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think that that's not that that's implausible actually at all. Right, right,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't he doesn't want to do anything that might

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Speaker 1: that he thinks might make Democrats look good. Yeah, well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: makes Biden look good or and all this is happening

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Speaker 1: in the context, by the way, that Washington Post report

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Speaker 1: which confirmed that there are channels that are trying to

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Speaker 1: urge Ukraine to the negotiating table, and that came out

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Speaker 1: what last week last right right, right, right right, which

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Speaker 1: would would be nice. There's a movement to end the war.

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Speaker 1: So let's let's start by talking about Senate. So not

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Speaker 1: much has changed, interestingly since we left this studio well

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Speaker 1: after midnight on Tuesday night. We have some more boat

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Speaker 1: totals in. We know for sure that Georgia we could

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Speaker 1: put this with this, so we know for sure that

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Speaker 1: Georgia is headed to a runoff. This will be early December.

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Speaker 1: Last time, it was an eight to nine week sprint

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Speaker 1: marathon until it was It wasn't until what January fourth

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Speaker 1: or fifth that the runoff happened. This time, it's early December,

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Speaker 1: so it's just a four week sprint. Meanwhile, and Nevada

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Speaker 1: and Arizona are still too close to call, but Democrats

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Speaker 1: are pretty confident that they're going to win at least one,

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Speaker 1: maybe both of those, depending on what votes come in Nevada.

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Speaker 1: We can talk about those races in a second, but

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Speaker 1: I'm curious for your take on the effect of let's

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Speaker 1: say it's not for all the marbles. Let's say by

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Speaker 1: this weekend, we know that Democrats are going to have

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Speaker 1: at least fifty seats in the Senate or Republicans depending

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Speaker 1: Nevada or let's say Republicans win them both, right, and

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Speaker 1: so this Georgia Senate race becomes a nice to have

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Speaker 1: for both parties, but not deciding the balance of power

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Speaker 1: which parties turn out operation. Do you think that that

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Speaker 1: helps the most? That's a really good question. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it does depend because if you're a Democrat,

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Speaker 1: you have the tiebreaker right in Kamala Harris, depending on

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Speaker 1: how the numbers shake out. That's that's obviously a huge advantage.

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Speaker 1: Kamala Harris is not going to vote the way of Republicans.

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Speaker 1: Way be funny if she did, Yeah, she just goes

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Speaker 1: totally rogue. So I think that will matter a little

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Speaker 1: bit but I don't know. I mean, it's just going

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Speaker 1: to be a ton of money no matter what it's

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Speaker 1: going to be. Because even for Democrats, they've been frustrated

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Speaker 1: with the margin that they have right now, and if

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Speaker 1: there's an opportunity for them to pick up another seat, well,

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Speaker 1: to keep Warnock in the Senate in the Senate and

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Speaker 1: increase their margin even by one vote, they'll feel so

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Speaker 1: much more comfortable that it's going to be worth spending.

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Speaker 1: And so do you think that Republics after this disappointing night,

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Speaker 1: which is going to lead to a bunch of finger

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Speaker 1: pointing already as leading to finger pointing, You already have

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Speaker 1: Trump out there making fun of Ronda sanctimonious for getting

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Speaker 1: fewer votes in a midterm than he got as president

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Speaker 1: president presidential here saying that nobody has ever won two

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Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen seats before. So he's going to be

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Speaker 1: stirring the pot for four weeks, which is him stirring

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Speaker 1: the pot for eight weeks in Georgia last time, really

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Speaker 1: hurt turnout for Republicans. So do you think that Republicans

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Speaker 1: are going to say, you know, we we thought we're

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Speaker 1: going to have this red wave instead we got embarrassed,

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Speaker 1: like I'm not coming out again for hershel Walker or

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Speaker 1: do you think that the stakes for them are so

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Speaker 1: existential that they're like, you know what I'm going I

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Speaker 1: walk I'll walk through fire for herschel Walker early December.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what we're going to see. The money

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Speaker 1: is going to be framing it very much as that

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Speaker 1: that this is existential. And I'm sure the Democrats will

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Speaker 1: follow suit because that margin is really important to them

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Speaker 1: every day that you have a president and a Senate

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Speaker 1: and you can get a lot done that's eight mansion

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Speaker 1: so much that they would love to be able to

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Speaker 1: make him helpful. Yeah, it's it's a neutralizer, and again

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Speaker 1: it depends on how the number shakeout, But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think there's going to be a ton of money pouring

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Speaker 1: in telling both sides, and in a red state like Georgia,

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Speaker 1: I think that's helpful for Republicans because you have that

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Speaker 1: homestaate advantage right of people that are generally going to

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Speaker 1: be inclined to say, oh, this is existential in that direction. Now,

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Speaker 1: one thing that the conservative sort of commentariat has settled

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Speaker 1: on over the course the last couple of days, the

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Speaker 1: buzzword is chaos. They have said that candidates like Herschel Walker,

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Speaker 1: Mastriano Michaels voters don't want chaos, they want a sense

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Speaker 1: of normalcy. And Walker is an example of a chaos candidate,

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Speaker 1: and so I would expect, really what normal chaos is

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Speaker 1: so much more interesting. Well here's what's really interesting. So

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Speaker 1: my old editor Tim Carney pulled out a quote that

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Speaker 1: we got one time during a a editorial board interview

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Speaker 1: at The Washington Examiner with Thomas Massey, and Thomas Massey

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Speaker 1: explained to us. He said, he went and campaigned with

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Speaker 1: Rand Paul and Ron Paul. He's a fairly libertarian, and

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Speaker 1: it wasn't until Trump came along that he realized. He

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Speaker 1: used to think, Wow, all of these people just really

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Speaker 1: love limited government. And he said, I realized when Trump

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Speaker 1: came along, they were just looking to support the craziest

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Speaker 1: son of a bitch in the race. And Carney pulled

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Speaker 1: that one out and he said, you know, basically that's

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Speaker 1: what Trump volters want, but that's not the entire public, right.

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Speaker 1: So so especially in some of those districts we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about Erie County for instance, you know, you

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Speaker 1: might have people that liked what Trump's chaos was, but

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Speaker 1: nobody else can channel that, Like there's just no other

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Speaker 1: Donald Trumps certainly not going to be doctor oz or

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Speaker 1: Mastriano make me laugh and make this party establishment cry.

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Speaker 1: And I'm happy pretty much that and and like take

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Speaker 1: on the media. Right, No, absolutely so, anyway, I think

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Speaker 1: that would just expect to see that sort of nudge

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Speaker 1: for Walker to not be such a chaos candidate because well,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how you do that. Yes, also, how

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Speaker 1: do you do that? I don't know how you make it?

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Speaker 1: He has like how he did in the primary. Yeah, right,

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Speaker 1: I think that's right. So let's put this next element

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Speaker 1: up Wisconsin. This is one of the calls that we

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Speaker 1: did have after Tuesday night. It looked like it was

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Speaker 1: headed in this direction. It did go. The biggest surprise

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Speaker 1: here for pundits myself included was how close it was

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Speaker 1: this And I think that in some ways Barnes here

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Speaker 1: was a victim of the massive Wisconsin polling misses in

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and that he was able

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Speaker 1: to say, look, I'm up seven points here in these polls.

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Speaker 1: Party doesn't come in and help him. Hey, guys, I'm

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Speaker 1: up four points here. Party doesn't come in and help him. Hey, guys,

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Speaker 1: this is a dead heat. Party doesn't help him. Guys,

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Speaker 1: I'm only down by a couple of points here. Party

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Speaker 1: doesn't help him because they're they keep adding in this

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Speaker 1: extra four or five points that they think the polls

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Speaker 1: are off by. Instead, the polls were off in the

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Speaker 1: other direction. Democrats spent something like seventy two million dollars

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Speaker 1: in Florida going after Marco rubio'sane to lose by almost

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Speaker 1: twenty points yep. And they left Mandela Barnes hanging out

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Speaker 1: to dry in Wisconsin. Now, you can have criticisms of

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Speaker 1: the of Barnes as a candidate and a campaign ran

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Speaker 1: whatever he was within two points or so, what was

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Speaker 1: the within one point? It's ninety nine percent. In we

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Speaker 1: have Ron Johnson at fifty point five percent and Mandela

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Speaker 1: Barns at forty nine point five. So how do you

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Speaker 1: justify spending seventy million dollars in Florida? You don't and

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Speaker 1: not And this Florida is so much more expensive to

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Speaker 1: campaign in than Wisconsin. You're from Wisconsin, right, how achieved

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Speaker 1: it doesn't cost anything for the Green Bay market or whatever. Well,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what they were thinking. I mean, Mandela

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Speaker 1: Barnes obviously is a isn't the ideal candidate in Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: just because he has what you would refer to probably

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Speaker 1: if you're a political consultant as like progressive baggage, right, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, you could be showing the abolishized T shirt. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's not helpful, right, Yeah, from a from a purely

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Speaker 1: political perspective, it's somebody who would have aligned himself with

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Speaker 1: an AOC running in Wisconsin. And again, well Randy Brice

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Speaker 1: was there, and Randy Brice ended up sort of falling

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Speaker 1: flat on his face. But there's an argument Jason Kandor

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Speaker 1: likes to make it that if you run sort of

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Speaker 1: boldly on progressive ideas, it's the Reagan formula. If you

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Speaker 1: run boldly on conservative ideas, basically, you can win anywhere

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Speaker 1: because people know you're principled, like people know that you

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Speaker 1: believe what you believe, and there's you know, you're gonna

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Speaker 1: bring some populism into it, likely and there's a way

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Speaker 1: to do it. You know, Medicare for all. Can it

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Speaker 1: win in Wisconsin? Absolutely? But all that is to say this,

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Speaker 1: even Wisconsin's polling has been off in a lot of

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Speaker 1: Ron Johnson races, a lot of races in general. So

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Speaker 1: like the Marquette Pole that everyone referred to in Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: for a lot long time as the gold standard of polling,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't picking up on a lot of this stuff.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're going to talk about a little

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Speaker 1: bit later. But just like I don't think that any

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Speaker 1: of these post mortems that are saying the polling was okay,

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Speaker 1: all right, I mean I think, you know, first of all,

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Speaker 1: polls should be better than okay, And second of all,

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Speaker 1: I think there were some really really big misses that

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Speaker 1: just shouldn't have happened, still shouldn't have happened. Is this though,

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Speaker 1: I think the governor's race shows that this not so

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Speaker 1: not just the one point being one point away means

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Speaker 1: it's a winnable race. That's what they call within the

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Speaker 1: margin of maneuver, like a couple of decisions you make

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Speaker 1: differently can can shift those those numbers of votes. But

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Speaker 1: also you can look at the statewide gubernatorial race, Tony

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Speaker 1: Evers was re elected. He's currently up by about one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand votes fifty one point two percent to forty

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Speaker 1: seven point eight percent, and Barnes underperformed Evers. The argument

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Speaker 1: for Barnes was identity politics based argument that said that

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Speaker 1: Barnes would turn out black voters in Milwaukee and also

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Speaker 1: young voters in Madison, huge college brown Instead, Milwaukee did

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Speaker 1: not turn out in the way that they predicted it would,

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Speaker 1: and Barnes they then significantly underperformed Evers in the rural

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Speaker 1: areas of Wisconsin, which you have to You're not going

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Speaker 1: to win those as a Democrat, but you have to

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Speaker 1: lose them less bad just what Evers did well. And

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Speaker 1: maybe this is a good transition over to the House

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Speaker 1: because that's our next block. Actually, let's let's talk about this.

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Speaker 1: I want to get your take real fast, because you

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Speaker 1: know Arizona really well. I mean, you know Blake mass

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Speaker 1: you know we had Blake Masters on rising as is

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Speaker 1: somebody whose career you followed for a long time. Do

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Speaker 1: they think they have a shot, Do they have a shot?

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Speaker 1: What's your What's what's your sense at this point? I

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Speaker 1: think they do have a shot. I think they have

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Speaker 1: a path. I think they're projecting optimism about that path

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Speaker 1: that's probably disproportionate to what the reality is down by

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Speaker 1: five point, which is not abnormal. Yeah, I think Kerry

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Speaker 1: Lake probably has path, but I don't know that Blake

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Speaker 1: Masters does. And you know, a good example also like

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Speaker 1: thinking about where Yeah, I mean, I don't know. We

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Speaker 1: have a block on the House and the Governor's coming up,

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Speaker 1: so I'm trying not to mash them all together. But

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Speaker 1: I think you're right that there's optimism on their end

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Speaker 1: about all of that. And Arizona is such a mess,

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Speaker 1: it's right, like, it is such a mess. The right

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Speaker 1: there has little faith in the counting, and so basically

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Speaker 1: the prayer is just that this doesn't turn into another

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty nightmare at this point. And I don't know.

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Speaker 1: And meanwhile, Kathin Gort has masses down by fifteen thousand votes,

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Speaker 1: but Democrats do think that the votes that are out

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Speaker 1: ought to hew her way and that she has a

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Speaker 1: pretty strong chance of holding on. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: extremely close either way. If you're listening to the podcast,

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Speaker 1: we're going to move right into the House here. If

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Speaker 1: you're watching this somewhere else, you got to go find

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Speaker 1: our next video, which is on the House of Representative.

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Speaker 1: So let's say were you're a premium subscriber, you're just

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Speaker 1: watching all the way. That's right, it's awesome. So let's

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Speaker 1: let's put up this first element here. So Sean Patrick Maloney,

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Speaker 1: the chair of the D Triple C, who fled his

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Speaker 1: district because he felt it was too close, it was

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Speaker 1: like a deep zero race, jumped further south, closer to

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Speaker 1: New York City for a suburban district that was that

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Speaker 1: leaned more heavily Democratic, because he thought that that would

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Speaker 1: be easier for him to hold. The problem for him

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Speaker 1: was that it was currently occupied by an incumbent Democrat

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Speaker 1: Representative Mondeir Jones. Monde Jones Hampden had for several days

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Speaker 1: and then decided to leave, ended up running in Manhattan,

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Speaker 1: New York ten to avoid to avoid a fight with

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Speaker 1: the D Triple C chair, a fight that he I'm

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Speaker 1: confident he would have won, but it would have been

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Speaker 1: it would have been bloody, it would have been a mess.

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Speaker 1: And then what does the D Triple C do for

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Speaker 1: you in the general election after you've ended the career

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Speaker 1: of the detriable seat chair. So I will acknowledge that

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Speaker 1: Jones was putting a pretty difficult spot there, But then

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Speaker 1: for Maloney to lose his own race, right and then

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Speaker 1: in his state basically cost Democrats the House. We'll see

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Speaker 1: what the margin may I mean? Bizarrely, inside Elections was

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Speaker 1: saying this morning that there's still a chance that Democrats

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Speaker 1: could hold the House, like there's a path. They don't

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Speaker 1: think it's likely, but they think there's a path. But

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Speaker 1: let's say that they lose it by a couple of

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Speaker 1: votes if they do. It was in the House. It

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Speaker 1: was in New York that they lost it in a

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Speaker 1: number of close races, including Tom Swosey, who was a

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Speaker 1: Long Island representative stepping down for a ridiculous run for

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Speaker 1: governor and the very popular former mayor for twenty years.

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Speaker 1: Incumbent Democrat would have won easily. Instead, Democrats lost lost

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Speaker 1: his seat, they lost, then they lost Maloney's seat. They

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Speaker 1: lost also in let me pull some of these up

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Speaker 1: New York nineteen, Mark Malonaro wins by two points in

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Speaker 1: that in that district, Max Rose got completely waxed. Mike

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Speaker 1: Lawler beats Sean Patrick Maloney by two points. Who else

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Speaker 1: we got Brandon Williams, the Republican beats Francis Canol in

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Speaker 1: New York twenty two by just four thousand votes. It's

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Speaker 1: not called yet, but Brandon Williams is up. Pat Ryan

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Speaker 1: who was who ran on a kind of anti corporate

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Speaker 1: populist slash abortion strategy. He won that special election that

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Speaker 1: we talked about. He wins like, well, it's not called yet,

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Speaker 1: but he's up by two thousand votes at this point.

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Speaker 1: And then at least Dephonic held on quite quite easily.

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Speaker 1: So but those four or five losses right there will

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Speaker 1: likely end up being the difference. Well, and here's another one,

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Speaker 1: and and I want to get into that actually because

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Speaker 1: let's let's camp out on New York Island. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: so if we camp out on New York. It's a

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Speaker 1: really interesting question where leez Elden didn't win, and the

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Speaker 1: headline if Lee's Selden had won, although he did tighten

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Speaker 1: the margin as the votes were coming in, it did

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Speaker 1: end up being sort of for a Republican. He made

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Speaker 1: a really good showing, just like Dreson and Organ. The

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Speaker 1: headline if Lee's Elden had won would have basically been

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Speaker 1: like red wave, that's like insane. But down ballot, what

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Speaker 1: we were seeing is huge inroads for New York Republicans.

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Speaker 1: And I saw a couple of years old he was

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Speaker 1: only lost by five. It looks like yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: and it's that's a loss for the polling industry had

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Speaker 1: some people had him up. But all that is to say, Zelden,

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Speaker 1: that's the headline, right like, but down ballot he made

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Speaker 1: in roads, he did really well in parts of Europe.

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Speaker 1: He outperformed like historic Republican patterns in different parts of

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Speaker 1: New York, and all those races that you just mentioned

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Speaker 1: were similar where you saw Republicans doing surprisingly well. And

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Speaker 1: that's a real problem both. I don't know how durable

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Speaker 1: that is an organ I'd imagine in New York, depending

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Speaker 1: on how things go in New York in general, what

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Speaker 1: the hoc old term looks like, that could be a

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Speaker 1: serious sort of problem for Democrats in the future. The

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Speaker 1: other race that I wanted to talk about actually is Wisconsin.

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Speaker 1: If we go back to Wisconsin or Wisconsin's third so

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Speaker 1: that's ron Kines District for a long time. And here

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Speaker 1: I'm quoting J. R. Ross, who is the editor of

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin politics dot com. He put up a tweet showing

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Speaker 1: that the Republican in Wisconsin's third district, that's a rural

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Speaker 1: district on the western side of the state, sort of

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Speaker 1: southwestern into the north. If this margin holds, he wrote,

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Speaker 1: the complaints I heard from Wisconsin Dems about the d

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Speaker 1: trip not putting enough in this race will be justified,

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Speaker 1: and the decision by House Majority pack to kill one

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Speaker 1: point eight million dollars in ads for FAFT for Congress

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Speaker 1: over the final two weeks will be justifiably scrutinized. So

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Speaker 1: the Democrat is down in that tweet, at least with

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Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the votes counted. By the AP's estimate,

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Speaker 1: he's down about three points to Derek van Orden, the Republican.

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Speaker 1: Now that's really interesting. Kind won that district in twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen easily. I think he had like sixty percent of

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Speaker 1: the vote. And one of those guys that everybody likes,

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Speaker 1: some Republicans vote for him, he could have the seat

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Speaker 1: as long as he wants kind of thing. Yeah, like pokin, Yeah, totally.

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Speaker 1: It looks like Van Orden is in that margin. He's

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Speaker 1: winning by almost exactly the margin that he lost to

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Speaker 1: Kind back in twenty twenty. So he flipped that right.

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Speaker 1: And this is again where you see we talked about

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Speaker 1: the Senate. In the last block, you see a razor

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Speaker 1: within margin for Ron Johnson and Mendela Barnes too. So

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Speaker 1: Democrats are Wisconsin, New York. We're talking about relatively rural

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Speaker 1: areas in both places where there was problems for Democrats.

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Speaker 1: There's probably problems that they could have fixed if they

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Speaker 1: saw coming. I don't know, is that would that be

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Speaker 1: your assessment of yours? Well? I think that that FAF

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Speaker 1: here was also a victim of the skepticism around the polling.

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Speaker 1: M hm, exactly that the Democratic bosses either run the

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Speaker 1: super pac House majority pack that's the Detriols Sees superpack,

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Speaker 1: or who run kind of the Senate campaign spending. Looked

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Speaker 1: at the races and I'm sure FAF was screaming at them,

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Speaker 1: this is a dead heat. We are statistically tied with

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Speaker 1: Van Orden here, Like, yeah, you're statistically tied, but Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: poles are wrong. So you're actually down by five or

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Speaker 1: six or seven points. Yes, since Biden was pulling what

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Speaker 1: up up seventeen or was that Hillary that was pulling seventeen?

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Speaker 1: Is like they missed it so badly that now they're

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Speaker 1: they're just going with their guts, and their guts have

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Speaker 1: no idea. Well, in the convention, what's going on in

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin and the conventional wisdom is that they're underpolling Republicans, right,

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Speaker 1: they were underpolling certain places. Yeah, it's very interesting that

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Speaker 1: the conventional wisdom in the polling industry was we are

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Speaker 1: having a really hard time tapping into these covert Trump supporters.

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Speaker 1: I'm getting into this in my monologue, but basically that

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Speaker 1: conventional wisdom was not right. And I think, especially when

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Speaker 1: you don't have Donald Trump on the ballot, it's not right.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that so many political professionals, and you

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Speaker 1: can see this in the d trip numbers, and you

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Speaker 1: can see this with where Republicans started spending money people's

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Speaker 1: internal polls, even we're not even talking about the media stuff.

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Speaker 1: Clearly nobody had any idea what the hell was happening

427
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 1: in a lot of these races. They just didn't know

428
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 1: one side point here. So Iowa was completely swept by Republicans,

429
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: all four seats Republican. Republicans dominated in Florida as well.

430
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: We talked dominated talking of this before that a lot

431
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: of our policy has been twisted by the fact that

432
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: Iowa a swing state where the presidential races start, and

433
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: Florida is a swing state where the presidential races end.

434
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: Like that's how like, you know, there's that saying that

435
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 1: the races begin in Iowa end in Florida. Not true anymore.

436
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: So somebody was making the point, Eric Sterling, just foreign policy.

437
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 1: He's like, okay, you know what, but enough with the

438
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 1: Cuban embargo. Now, I saw you like, we've been doing this.

439
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: We've been making the Cuban people suffer for fifty years

440
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: so that we have a chance of winning in Florida,

441
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: which is so cynical and awful, like that that people

442
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 1: are eating you know, people that don't people are eating

443
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 1: beans so that some consultant has a chance of like,

444
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 1: you know, narrowing the margins in Miami Dade County. So

445
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 1: scrap that. Now make the policy on its merits, not

446
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: just for one community in South Florida. Secondly, Iowa, our

447
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: stupid ethanol policy has been just depletely driven by the

448
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: fact that i was a swing state and then the

449
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 1: Iowa caucause Democrats are it looks like they're scrapping the

450
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 1: Iowa Caucuses. It's no longer a competitive state. Enough with

451
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 1: the ethanol subsidies done, figure something else out of What

452
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 1: about the sugar subsidies in Florida? Yes, done, done, Like

453
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: how many? How many cases of diabetes do we have

454
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: in this country because of the show that Democrats and

455
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 1: Republicans can jockey for the vote in Florida. You know,

456
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: I'm sorry for Democrats that they're not competitive in Florida anymore.

457
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 1: But just write it off and end the sugar subsidies

458
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:40,239
Speaker 1: and the ethanol subsidies and the Cuban embargo. Done, make

459
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: the water a better place. I disagree obviously with your

460
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: take on I don't disagree with the ethanol sugar subsidizing it,

461
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: and you can send the corn and the sugar over

462
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 1: to Cuba. I disagree with both the politics and the

463
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 1: principle of your take on the embargo, but that we

464
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: can talk about that later an issue you know very

465
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: well though, But I think there's a really good point there,

466
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: which is how does how does the shake up American

467
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: politics period? Like if you have Republicans suddenly being competitive

468
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: in places like Florida and Democrats or in places like

469
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: Oregon and Democrats not being competitive in places like Florida,

470
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 1: that changes policy like that has a huge especially Florida,

471
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 1: which is a highly populous state that does have a

472
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 1: lot of outsize influence because it's sort of generally been

473
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: seen as purple. But the margins that came in this

474
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 1: week are not indicative of a purple state at all.

475
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 1: And maybe there's still places Democrats can be competitive. Maybe

476
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 1: with the right candidate they can be competitive. I don't know.

477
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: I mean, remember how close that was with Gillham. That

478
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 1: was a very very close. If not for that stupid

479
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: scandal where like some undercover FBI agent gave his brother

480
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: like Hamilton tickets, Gilim was like a front runner for

481
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: the presidency. Instead he was like arrested. Yeah, and the

482
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: Santus is a front runner presidency. Oh, we're just we're

483
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: still in that technically. In the house block some news here,

484
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: I asked Tom Swoza, you thinking about running for your

485
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: old seat in twenty twenty four. People are missing you already,

486
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: he says, Ha, people are missing you already. So not

487
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 1: a no, not a no no. Ha. I think Democrats,

488
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 1: even progress would be like you know what, that guy

489
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: really annoyed us a lot by being part of the

490
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: new label, the centrist stuff, But he won, and they

491
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 1: would rather have a Democrat who annoys them than Republican

492
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: who's just going to vote constantly against them. I think

493
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,959
Speaker 1: one big storyline that may be emerging, and you were

494
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 1: touching on this from Tuesday's results, is that the country

495
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 1: is starting to almost Balkanize and that people are starting

496
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 1: like Florida is a good example to concentrate in different

497
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: parts of the country, and that's going to be that's

498
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,400
Speaker 1: going to have a difference, not just in politics where

499
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: people compete, but then downstream of that in policy, and

500
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: downstream of that sort of in our interactions with each other.

501
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 1: And obviously, you know since Bowling Alone and coming apart,

502
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 1: people have written about this, but when it actually starts

503
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 1: happening with physical moving where people are sort of actually

504
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: also voting with their feet and not just saying, well,

505
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: we're in Oregon, it happens, or we're in New York,

506
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: whatever it is. But when people are saying, listen, we're

507
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: getting out of the city, or we're getting out of Portland,

508
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: we're getting out of Manhattan, you're going to start Our

509
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 1: politics are really going to change. And so the D

510
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,239
Speaker 1: Triple C chair losing in a pretty good year for

511
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: House Democrats, awfully funny might not be the funniest to

512
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 1: compete for the funniest races, one did you know Sarah

513
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 1: Palin was running again. It did all right, So and

514
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 1: then we're going to get to Laura. You can do

515
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: writing campaigns pretty successfully at Alaska. You can Markowski if

516
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: Berkowski can win. I think the mort they handing out

517
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 1: pencils that said Markowski on them, so to run through

518
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: these really quickly. So Mary Peltol, the Democrat who said

519
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: she was the fish candidate, which is important in Alaska,

520
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: everything's dying up there. She's currently sitting at forty seven percent,

521
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: Sarah Palin with twenty seven percent, Nick Baggage with twenty

522
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 1: four percent. Once all the ballots are counted, their ranked

523
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 1: choice that's with eighty percent, And once all the ballots

524
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: are counted, their ranked choice kicks in. And so if

525
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: Mary Peltol doesn't get over fifty percent, then the second

526
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 1: place choices for Nick Baggage play in. And so if

527
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:22,080
Speaker 1: every single Nick Baggage voter chose Sarah Palin as their

528
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: second choice, she would win fifty three forty seven. But

529
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: we know that that's not going to happen. Some of

530
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 1: them are going to pick Peltola's some all margin because

531
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: they just hate Sarah Palin for all the different reasons

532
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: that people don't like Sarah Palin. I mean, if you

533
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: don't really live in Alaska, it's going to be very

534
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: hard to win in Alaska. Right. Yes, this is doctor

535
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: Oz has Doctor Oz learned in Pennsylvania, and he was

536
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: pretty close. She's not even close. But a lot of

537
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: the Baggage voters are also going to just leave it,

538
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: leave it blank. So they're like, look, I like Baggage,

539
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 1: who's my second choice? I don't like either of them?

540
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 1: And so those get pulled out. A pelt Hole has

541
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 1: probably got that. That's funny. Colorado Lauren Bobert. She's currently

542
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: down by Oh I can't do this math one hundred

543
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: and fifty six thousand, seven hundred and forty six votes

544
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: for the Democrat Adam Frish one hundred fifty six thousand,

545
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: six hundred and eighty two for Lauren Bobert, with more

546
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: than ninety five percent counted. So this is actually still

547
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: up in the air. It sounds like, and we were

548
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: laughing about this last night on Twitter, it sounds like

549
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: Aspen has been fully counted. Aspen obviously not Lauren Bobert country.

550
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: And I'll say this for Lauren Bobert, you know, at

551
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 1: least she had the right enemies. Doesn't mean you're not

552
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,320
Speaker 1: a jerk, but she had the right enemies there, Like,

553
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: if you're losing Aspen nine to one, that's kind of

554
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: eight to two or whatever it was that says something.

555
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: It feels like, it feels like we're in a weird place.

556
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: If the left is the super rich people in Aspen. Well,

557
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: the left are alsolling sexist attacks on her, like saying

558
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 1: that it's good news for only fans, as Kurt Bardella

559
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 1: did on MSNBC last night, Although the loudest one on

560
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: this front has been Maga Man, Lenny Dykstra, my hero

561
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: when I was a kid, Nails They'll Mets, and Phillies

562
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: player took the opportunity to hit on her on Twitter.

563
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: I mean, it's what's it's turning itt top is maybe

564
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: that Lauren b Bobert Country is not even Lauren Bobert country,

565
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 1: because what you have here is a fairly centrist democrat

566
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: being extremely competitive. Laura Bobert might be able to make

567
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 1: up the math here, it's not impossible. But when you

568
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: have someone coming in and saying basically like this is

569
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: there's too many distractions, you're not helping the people of

570
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: the district. It's more about you than it is about

571
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: the district. That's a pretty clear sign. And Republicans also

572
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: lost an upset in this northeast Colorado district eight like

573
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: another I mean, it's on the other other side of

574
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: the state, but you know, also a rural era area,

575
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: but that has like that's forty percent Hispanic goes those

576
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: two Hispanic kit and Polus was more comfortable than people

577
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 1: expected either. Yeah, and the psychedelics hung on. That's right.

578
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: So there's going to be therapeutic psychedelic centers in Colorado

579
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:22,479
Speaker 1: that are going to be building up. As we talk

580
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 1: about governors. Yeah, there you go. So Democrat Laura Kelly

581
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: wins reelection in the Kansas governor's race. NBC News projects.

582
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: One thing I'd like to add to that. Also, just

583
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 1: while we're talking about the sort of Kansas, there was

584
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of speculation that Kevin Stitt

585
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: was going to lose the governorship in Oklahoma. And this

586
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: is one of the spots we're polling was just most

587
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: of this was most of the bad polls were airing

588
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: on the side of under counting Democratic votes. This poll

589
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 1: for some these polls in and Oklahoma were awful. They

590
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: were so bad. Kevin Stitt was re elected governor of Oklahoma,

591
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 1: a red state, very comfortable. But actually there were several

592
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 1: polls that had Hoffmeister this is the last week of October,

593
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: up by three, up by one, up by four throughout October,

594
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: and Stitt was handily re elected, probably, like I mean,

595
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: probably it might even be a double digit margin. At

596
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: least it was when I was looking here for sixty's

597
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: ninety nine percent in double digits. We were making fun

598
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: of those polls here, right, well, but sometimes you can

599
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: be like, look, come on, get out of here with this,

600
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 1: you can. But Oklahoma Republicans were nervous, legitimately nervous about that.

601
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: And obviously, if we put C two up on the screen,

602
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 1: we're just sort of taking a tour around the different

603
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 1: governorships in the country. Gretchen and Witmer. Another one where

604
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: there were polls and they swept the legislature too. There

605
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,520
Speaker 1: you go, another one and they had an abortion referendum

606
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: on the ballot. So the narrative, and I'll talk about

607
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: this a little bit later, but the narrative that it

608
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: was this clear cut sort of dichotomy between abortion and

609
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: the economy in a midterm when you need turnout. Turnout

610
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 1: for abortion clearly helped Whitmer, and that's clearly what is

611
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: not being picked up on by the polsters, right right,

612
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: that's clearly what was being missed that these things were

613
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 1: going to be We're going to buoy Democrats in ways

614
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,479
Speaker 1: that they just weren't picking up on. And the most

615
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:35,240
Speaker 1: difficult thing for polsters to pick up is youth turnout

616
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: because they just have such a hard time gauging whether

617
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 1: or not a young person who's telling them they're going

618
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 1: to turn out is going to vote turn out. Partly,

619
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: it's not just generational prejudice, it's that there's not as

620
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: much of a history. If somebody's fifty years old, and

621
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: then you can look back in their voting history and

622
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: tell how many times they've come out. They're like, yeah, oh,

623
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: I'm totally going to vote, and you check their voting

624
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: record they haven't voted in ten years. You're like, wow,

625
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: so sure they're going to vote. Well, they also might

626
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 1: pick up a landline right and so right, and it's

627
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: harder to reach them. And also if they're a twenty

628
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 1: year old and they haven't voted before and they're telling

629
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: you I'm definitely going to vote as a Polster. Now

630
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: you have to make the decision are they telling you

631
00:35:13,040 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 1: the truth? Are they actually going to vote, because you

632
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: don't have a voting history that you can go back

633
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: and look at. And I'll take a quick picture lap

634
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: because if you remember Tuesday Night on Megan Kelly, she

635
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 1: and what Larry Elder were like laughing at the idea

636
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: that there might be a surgeon in youth voter turnout

637
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: and that Democrats always bank on these young people turning

638
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,279
Speaker 1: out and then the young people never show up. They

639
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: showed up in twenty eighteen and that really made the difference,

640
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: and that was anti Trump and that was gun violence.

641
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 1: If you remember, that was the surge of the post

642
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: Parkland movement that they doubled their share in twenty eighteen,

643
00:35:49,840 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: They doubled their share of the electorate. Nobody had ever

644
00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: seen an explosion like that, and they're overwhelmingly Democratic, and

645
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: so they came out again again. We still don't exactly

646
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 1: know and what numbers, but they can them out in

647
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: huge numbers. And I think there are several things that

648
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: you can draw from that, and one is that you

649
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 1: got to stop thinking about people just as boxes. Yes,

650
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,359
Speaker 1: I think this vindicates Biden's student loan policy. I think

651
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: clearly like done. Like anybody who thought that was going

652
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: to backfire on Democrats missed that. But that's not all

653
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 1: students are. I think the climate bill that they passed,

654
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 1: you know, the IRA, the biggest climate spending in history.

655
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: I think that mattered, Like I think that brought out

656
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 1: some young people, got some young people enthusiastics, showed them

657
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: there's a purpose in getting involved. But also, and maybe

658
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 1: most importantly abortion, because for some reason, we do this

659
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: thing where we think, well, you have women over here,

660
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: and then you have young people over here. None of

661
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 1: the young people are women none of it, or are

662
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 1: the boyfriends of women, and are young people who can

663
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: young boys, young men who care about Dave Bortnoy who

664
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: said he was not voting Republican. This is like after

665
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 1: two people under thirty who just or forty, who have

666
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 1: just grown up, like abortion is a fundamental right in

667
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 1: the Constitution to all of a sudden be told it's not.

668
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: They're like no, and so so yes, certainly women of

669
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 1: all ages are offended as having that right stripped away.

670
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: But I think people under forty men and women, I

671
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:33,040
Speaker 1: think we're particularly driven by that. How are Republicans thinking

672
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 1: through the turnout model in relation to abortion policy? I think,

673
00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 1: and I am sort of trying to pick a lot

674
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: of this apart in my monologue. I do think that

675
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: there was this idea, and understandably so, that the economy

676
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: was in a place where people would be voting or

677
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 1: and they would want to hear more from candidates about

678
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 1: their sort of the their bank accounts, like what's happening

679
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 1: to my bank account, what is happening to my portfolio,

680
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: what is happening to just my ability to feed my families,

681
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: to feed my family and to do X, Y and Z.

682
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 1: And that would be sort of separate, that that would

683
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 1: be or it would be overwhelming, not separate, but that

684
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 1: those interests would overwhelm interests in talking about anything else,

685
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: like nothing else. And I don't know, I mean I

686
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: think there were some voters like that probably, but you

687
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: have to then factor in what that's going to do,

688
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 1: for instance, to the youth vote, which is historically and

689
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: this is like Megan had a good point when she

690
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: was talking like historically it's low and historically, especially in

691
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 1: a bad economy under an unpopular incumbent, president, you would

692
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: not expect young people to turn out high enough in

693
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: ways that would be super helpful for Democrats. And I

694
00:38:54,800 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 1: don't think that sort of the dobs aftermath was factor in,

695
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: and especially especially especially in states where there was an

696
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: abortion referendum on the table that I think in Michigan

697
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 1: is absolutely key, completely crucial, and you know young voters,

698
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: that's not people who have kids in the schools and

699
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: would be upset with Gretchen and Whitmer over that, over

700
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: COVID lockdowns, which was a huge issue in the race

701
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: between Whitmer and Dixon. So it wasn't picking up on

702
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: what Democrats were doing. And we were very clear here

703
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 1: that dismissing the focus on abortion was not like obviously

704
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: Democrats know this is about turnout. I don't think that

705
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 1: they handled it spectacularly well. I don't think a lot

706
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 1: of Republicans handled it spectacularly well. But midterm elections, yeah,

707
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 1: you're going to hear about democracy, democracy, and you're going

708
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 1: to hear about abortion when Democrats are trying to just

709
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: these marginal wins. That's what it is. I mean, there

710
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 1: are all these kinds of things that tip the balance

711
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 1: and make the difference and that's one of them. Obviously,

712
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 1: the danger for Democrats feeling so good coming out of

713
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: this would be that they ignore some of the routes

714
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: that they took in a lot of other places like Iowa,

715
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: for instance, parts of parts of New York where you know,

716
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 1: the the abortion message worked in places like New Hampshire,

717
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 1: places like Michigan here that have a slightly higher college

718
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 1: educated population. If if they're going to be competitive nationally,

719
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 1: they're going to have to reach workers to like where

720
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 1: they are. And so one of the good signs coming

721
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: out of Michigan is that Democrats are saying now that

722
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 1: the first thing they're going to do is take on

723
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 1: right to work. The Betsy Devas kind of heart right

724
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: Michigan wing there has has pushed as many kind of

725
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 1: pro corporate, anti worker policies as they could get through

726
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 1: with their I mean, a lot of workers support right

727
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 1: to work. Well, we'll see, so that that's a fun

728
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: fight to have. Some somewhat is a fun to have.

729
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 1: Some workers are anti union, no doubt about it, or

730
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,720
Speaker 1: at least not not even anti union, but just antie

731
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: not being forced into a union. Right, So so Democrats

732
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 1: are going to go it. Right to work and we'll

733
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: see how we'll see how that pans out, because that's

734
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: actually an interesting fault line for the populist left and right.

735
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: It's it's like where like the populist right is for workers,

736
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 1: but they're still kind of sorting through exactly where they

737
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 1: are on unions. Yeah, it's an interesting fight. I don't

738
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: agree so that it's an interesting fault line because of

739
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,399
Speaker 1: sort of what I was just saying, like a lot

740
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: of so American compass. It's or in Cass's group that

741
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: does a lot of pro worker issues from the right perspective,

742
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: they they support a different sort of formation, a more

743
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:42,839
Speaker 1: European formation about what organization, what organizing should look like

744
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: for American workers, And I don't imagine that they would

745
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: be against right to work. And I mean, I don't know.

746
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 1: I think it's not a great fight to pick for

747
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 1: the for the left actually because I think it exposes

748
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: a lot of the cracks in the sort of foundation

749
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: and a lot of the conversations that don't want to

750
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: have about the faults in big labor, and it always

751
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 1: actually I'm just saying from a political perspective, I don't

752
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 1: know that it's the most like expedient fight to pick. Yeah,

753
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 1: that that I disagree with. Without without organized labor, without

754
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:19,439
Speaker 1: workers collectively demanding fights through the political process, I think

755
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 1: you don't have a left that is anything other than

756
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 1: kind of you know, culture culture war, reverse culture war.

757
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: So if if Democrats want, are are going to fight

758
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 1: in the workplace, uh and and appeal to workers material interests,

759
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 1: I think that's that's the best chance that the party

760
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 1: has because other otherwise it's just a faculty lounge party.

761
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: And and if and if that becomes the debate between

762
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 1: the right and the left, do you want the freedom

763
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 1: to not have to join union in your workplace, which

764
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: might then you know, dissolve your union because like it's

765
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 1: it's not as if the right right to So in

766
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 1: states where right to work has been implemented, you see

767
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: union density collapse absolutely, And so it's not as if

768
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: you still have the union protections, but you have the

769
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: individual freedom to not join a union. You don't end

770
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 1: up having the choice to join a union or not

771
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 1: because you've destroyed the unions. And so that that's why

772
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: and I think that's why in places where right to

773
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:28,840
Speaker 1: work has been implemented, it might be easier to reverse

774
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: because it sounds nice to say to somebody like, look,

775
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 1: we're totally for a union, but you don't have to

776
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: be in it if you work for this company, if

777
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 1: you don't want to, but you can still have the benefits.

778
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: So you get the extra healthcare, you get the pension,

779
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 1: you get the get the annual raises, but you also

780
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 1: don't have to pay dues. And a lot of workers like,

781
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 1: I'll take that deal. Great, gas prices are going up.

782
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 1: I'll take an extra hundred and fifty dollars in my paycheck.

783
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,360
Speaker 1: And then a couple of years later, the union's gone,

784
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 1: and now you don't have a choice anymore to get

785
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 1: that healthcare, to get that pension, to get that rate,

786
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,600
Speaker 1: to get that annual raise, because there is no union.

787
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 1: So I think that we'll see, but I think it's

788
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: a it's a fight worth having. That's so like Michigan

789
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: as a test case in what happens, like as a

790
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 1: sort of example of what you lose when you pass

791
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,879
Speaker 1: right to work. You're saying like it's a that only

792
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 1: works out in the favor of Democrats. And it's interesting

793
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 1: because I think back to the right to work fight

794
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,280
Speaker 1: in Michigan, what was that like almost ten years ago

795
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,839
Speaker 1: that that really did expose. I mean, when you're going

796
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: out and talking to workers who are saying, I absolutely

797
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 1: believe in and right to work because I have problem X, Y,

798
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: and Z with my union that is powerful and not

799
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,840
Speaker 1: in the direction right, and unions need to need a

800
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 1: check and you know there are there are certainly corrupt unions.

801
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,919
Speaker 1: And that was before unions were like super woke too.

802
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 1: By the way, are they that woken nationally? They definitely are.

803
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 1: And so like the national organizations that the Chapter are

804
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: responsive to, I guarantee a lot of Michigan workers have

805
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 1: problems with but that doesn't mean that they see that

806
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: as outweighing different interests. The grass is always greener, and

807
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: so we'll say, see, that's actually that's a really interesting point.

808
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 1: The grass is always greener. And I think you've persuaded

809
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,399
Speaker 1: me that this is an interesting, right, excellent, interesting fight.

810
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: There we go next. Republicans are all jocking for blame

811
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 1: and for power here. That's right, let's put let's put

812
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 1: d one up here. Scalise will not challenge McCarthy. This

813
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: is per Jake Sherman over at punch Bowl. According to

814
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 1: a Scalise aide who told Jake that the message that's

815
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 1: going out from the Scalice Camp Scalice is running from

816
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: Jordy leader full stop. Jim Jordan said the same thing

817
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: yesterday as well, although he was pretty clear about that

818
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: to me just about a month ago. And we also

819
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 1: have D two. This is from Ben Shapiro. We can

820
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,719
Speaker 1: throw that up on the screen. Okay, so this is

821
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: This would be funny if it was from Ben shapiroh. Yeah,

822
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 1: this is clearly from Tree. I don't know if I've

823
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 1: been tweeted it or something. I have an exciting announcement

824
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 1: that I can't wait to share with you on November fifteenth,

825
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to announ something huge at mar A Lago,

826
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: and I want you to be there. He means me,

827
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,680
Speaker 1: he means you, Ryan Graham. He wants you to be there,

828
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: So make sure to contribute your five dollars so you

829
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 1: can get intomorrow. I'm sure this lottery will be on

830
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: the up and up, and whoever wins will actually be

831
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: invited to Malaga, no questions. It's like Willy Wonka, like

832
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:28,720
Speaker 1: the Golden Ticket. Yeah. I recently they Trump was offering

833
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 1: an eleven hundred percent match for donations down the stretch.

834
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 1: I was like, there's no way anybody can ever top

835
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 1: an eleven hundred percent match. I can't even I give

836
00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 1: five dollars and it magically turns into fifty five? Hun,

837
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 1: how can I not do this? And then a couple

838
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: of days later they came out with a seventeen hundred

839
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: percent match. Wow, seventeen that's such a great deal. It's

840
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 1: all like, how could you not? It's a chump up

841
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 1: on that. It's just Steve Minusian. He's just out there

842
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 1: just printing multiplying. Yeah, he stole all that money from

843
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 1: the mint. He stole looking a mint. Yeah, that's that's

844
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,839
Speaker 1: how he's going to multiply your money. That's genius. Little known,

845
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: little known fact. So the Kayley Mcananey actually said on

846
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 1: Fox News yesterday that if she were Donald Trump, because

847
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 1: of the Georgia runoff, she would not hold that announcement,

848
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 1: and the announcement that make the announcement, not make the announcement.

849
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: It's widely expected, of course, that Donald Trump is Donald

850
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 1: Trump's big marl Lago announcement that he announced at his

851
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,800
Speaker 1: rally what was that Monday night, is going to be

852
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 1: his announcement that he's running for president. He is obviously

853
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: running for president. Unless something dramatic changes, the man is

854
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 1: running for president. But because run DeSantis and Donald Trump

855
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 1: have been publicly sort of at somewhat of loggerheads. DeSantis

856
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:49,919
Speaker 1: hasn't really exchanged any fire with him. Trump has put

857
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 1: up on truth social some mockery of DeSantis, as Ryan

858
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier in the show, saying that he got more

859
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 1: votes than DeSantis did in the midterm. But of course,

860
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 1: when you're running in a presidential year, you're always going

861
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 1: to get more votes than somebody running in a midterm

862
00:48:03,880 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 1: Yere for the most part, has turnout is just that

863
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: much higher. So Trump has been ribbing disantas he called

864
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: them to sanctimonious the last couple of weeks, and the

865
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: sort of internal chatter on the right at the moment

866
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: is that Donald Trump his candidates fared very poorly this week.

867
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 1: His endorsements didn't seem to carry the weight and the

868
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:27,280
Speaker 1: punch that a lot of people wanted them to. Thus,

869
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 1: there needs to be some introspection and some time about

870
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: what's to think about what's best for the party before

871
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 1: he makes that announcement that DeSantis is kind of waiting

872
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: in the wings. This guy puts up double digit margins,

873
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: margins not just in general, but in freaking Miami Dade County,

874
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 1: just crazy stuff for Republicans in Florida. And again, like

875
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 1: Florida is changing quickly, that's pulling a lot of people

876
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 1: who either weren't voting or were straight up voting Democrat

877
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 1: in Florida to the Republican side. So that seems to

878
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: be the dilemma facing Republicans right now. It's all Trump

879
00:49:04,760 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: and I have a lot of thoughts on that. So

880
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: before I keep just blubbering on Ryan, what are your thoughts.

881
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 1: I think Democrats, rightly or wrongly, are desperately hoping that

882
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: he follows through with his announcement. Because also Democrats are

883
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:21,560
Speaker 1: such short term everyy in politics, short term thinkers. So

884
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 1: they're like, if he announces mid November, like that really

885
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: juices our turnout for the herschel Walker Raphael Warnock or

886
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 1: December fourth or fifth election whenever that is? What does

887
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,919
Speaker 1: that do for herschel Walker turnout? Could you like, will

888
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 1: Trump go all in to try to will he be

889
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 1: rallying constantly in Georgia for two weeks? And will DeSantis?

890
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: That's the question because the West drama. Look at how

891
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: popular Ron DeSantis is in Florida, right right right under

892
00:49:56,680 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 1: the border there in Georgia, he's very close and again

893
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: putting in double digit margins. And we talked about the

894
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:07,720
Speaker 1: sort of Reagan model or the populist the Jason Candor

895
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 1: model is that if you are bold and you pass

896
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 1: these policies, you can actually sort of attract voters to

897
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:16,280
Speaker 1: you who don't necessarily love the Republican Party or regularly

898
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 1: vote Republican or regularly vote Democrat because they say that

899
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 1: guy believes in something and he's doing something about it.

900
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 1: And I like that. I like that things are actually changing.

901
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 1: I like that, you know, somebody actually is doing what

902
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: they say they're going to do. And that's been a

903
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:36,239
Speaker 1: sort of part of Ronda Santis's success. And so it's

904
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 1: very likely that people are going to want him to

905
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: campaign for hershel Walker. Are they going to want Donald

906
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,919
Speaker 1: Trump to campaign for Hershel Walker in a state that

907
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:51,080
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp won easily and herschel Walker is going to

908
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: a runoff? Right? Like that is a huge red flag

909
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:59,399
Speaker 1: to Trump world. If you have Brian Kemp, a guy

910
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:01,719
Speaker 1: that Trump did endorse. Soccer picked this up. I think

911
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,000
Speaker 1: the endorsement is rally on Monday, as it seemed pretty

912
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: clear that Brian Kemp was going to win, Donald Trump

913
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: was like, I give him my full endorsement and something

914
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: like that. But Brian Kemp went easily in Georgia, and

915
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 1: Kemp and Trump have had a horrible relationship over what

916
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 1: happened in twenty twenty. So what's best? What's best for Herschel?

917
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:27,840
Speaker 1: I mean, but Herschel's Herschel obviously loves Trump right like

918
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,439
Speaker 1: loves Trump. Herschel. A lot of Herschel voters love Trump,

919
00:51:30,480 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 1: I mean Donald Trump. This is where for all of

920
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 1: the DeSantis people, who I think risk sort of congealing

921
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 1: into a very fervored base. And like, I understand why

922
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:44,240
Speaker 1: people like DeSantis on the right. Don't get me wrong,

923
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:46,719
Speaker 1: but it's sort of they have to be careful not

924
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: to go into like full never Trump mode because that

925
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: guy is attracting his rally in Ohio the other night.

926
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: I mean, how many times has he's been to Ohio

927
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 1: and Pennsylvania and Trump and he still draws these huge

928
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 1: crowds That is not normal for any Republican. There is

929
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 1: a lot of love for Donald Trump in the Republican

930
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 1: base still, but there's also a lot of polarization in

931
00:52:07,239 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 1: the Republican base and you can see that, I think

932
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: in the Kemp and Walker numbers. So what do you do?

933
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 1: So thoughts on Scalise and Jordan. I think I think

934
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:20,480
Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus is going to flex its muscles, and

935
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 1: if I were them, I would tell them to do

936
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 1: the same thing if they want to have a lot

937
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 1: of power in the next Congress. Kevin McCarthy has had

938
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: a lot of really warm relationships with people in the

939
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,680
Speaker 1: Freedom Caucus. He especially has a very warm relationship with

940
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 1: Jim Jordan. He cultivated that relationship intentionally. Who's Jordan getting

941
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:43,359
Speaker 1: back McCarthy? Who in the majority leader race? Oh, I'm

942
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: sure Scalise, I think it'll be. I mean, I don't know.

943
00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 1: He has a close relationship with Jim Banks, and I

944
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 1: think Banks is jucking for the whip position. So I

945
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: don't know, But I do think the Freedom Caucus is

946
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:58,839
Speaker 1: going to do something, and I don't think it's going

947
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 1: to be as serious. We're going to get a Freedom Caucus.

948
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 1: Will try tomorrow, We'll try. I think you're watching. You're

949
00:53:04,120 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: in the Freedom Caucus. Come on the show. We love that.

950
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: We love to talk to you, because Kevin McCarthy is,

951
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 1: you know, not seen as somebody he's certainly not like

952
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 1: a kindred spirit with the Freedom of Caucus, but for

953
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,800
Speaker 1: somebody who's not a kindred spirit with a Freedom Caucus

954
00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 1: has a shockingly good relationship with them, and that was

955
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 1: intentional and strategic on his part. So I think it's

956
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 1: possible they throw someone up to run against them. Obviously

957
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 1: it's not going to be Jim Jordan, but that something

958
00:53:29,280 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 1: happens that pushes him to do something. I mean, there

959
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: are a lot of procedural changes that actually, like like

960
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 1: really procedural changes that folks like Rachel Bovard think need

961
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:41,799
Speaker 1: to be done and Freedom Caucus members think need to

962
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:45,319
Speaker 1: be done. So I wouldn't I wouldn't say that, you know,

963
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 1: we won't see anything that'll just everyone will fall in line.

964
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 1: A Freedom Caucus source told me before the election that

965
00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 1: the idea that the Freedom Caucus is going to support

966
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:58,399
Speaker 1: McCarthy and it's quote done and dusted is ridiculous. So

967
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 1: I think that increases in likelihood now that the red

968
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 1: title wave didn't materialize. Biden yesterday feeling is out's feeling

969
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 1: really good doing a bunch of I told you so here.

970
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 1: The big question I think coming out of here, and

971
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 1: as you can see this, does this mean that Biden

972
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,360
Speaker 1: is the presumptive nominee for twenty twenty four And I

973
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 1: think the obvious answer to that is yes. The question

974
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 1: then is how party insiders feel about that, and then

975
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 1: also how the party base feels about that and what

976
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,720
Speaker 1: mechanisms they have to express those feelings over the next

977
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:44,399
Speaker 1: couple of years. So from a Republican perspective from the right,

978
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 1: how happy are they that they that they might be

979
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 1: running against Joe Biden or are they like starting to

980
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 1: doubt themselves and their political gut thinking like, wait, I

981
00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,799
Speaker 1: thought Brandon was going to be a pushover and we

982
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 1: could and even like it's Thursday and we don't even

983
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 1: have the house lockdown yet, I think they are going

984
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 1: to be questioning. I think they're going to be questioning

985
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: that for sure, whether or not their attacks on Biden

986
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,680
Speaker 1: and trying to tie certain candidates to Biden and the

987
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 1: sort of failed Biden agenda worked because Biden a lot

988
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 1: of voters can see, and we talked about this the

989
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:26,879
Speaker 1: student loan example, for instance, I think I actually think

990
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 1: that that hurts Democrats when it's front and center. But

991
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of voters that was not

992
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,919
Speaker 1: front and center, but for young voters it sure hell

993
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 1: was right. So I don't think it's like super clear cut.

994
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: But I do think that, you know, Biden was strategic

995
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 1: and the administration was strategic. I probably shouldn't say Biden

996
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 1: himself because I don't know how much of that is

997
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 1: his team being really strategic and saying this is what

998
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 1: we're going to do X, Y and Z, and that

999
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:54,239
Speaker 1: stuff turns out voters like people who do stuff. And

1000
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 1: I understand that the Inflation Reduction Act and a lot

1001
00:55:58,040 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 1: of the big spending like personally, I think that absolutely

1002
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: contributing to inflation. I think the poor handling of the

1003
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:06,839
Speaker 1: war is contributing to inflation. And I think this hostility

1004
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:14,000
Speaker 1: to American energy has caused inflation. But Republicans obviously did

1005
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 1: not make that case clearly enough in certain places like Arizona.

1006
00:56:18,600 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 1: I mean, just if you can't make that case with

1007
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 1: an unpopular incumbent president and a fairly bad economy in

1008
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 1: Arizona to the extent where it's a clear cut sort

1009
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:30,399
Speaker 1: of if you can't do that, you have to start

1010
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 1: asking questions. Yeah, and if the inflation numbers today mean

1011
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 1: that the tightening begins to end from the FED, the

1012
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: possibility of a recession in twenty three twenty four goes

1013
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:45,320
Speaker 1: way down. That's the probably's best chance going up against

1014
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 1: Biden in the middle of a recession. It will be

1015
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 1: almost impossible for Buying to win that. But if the

1016
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:54,200
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine ends, which hopefully it ends by then

1017
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: Russia retreating from crosone suggests that there is some type

1018
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:01,880
Speaker 1: of end in sight, maybe after if Europe makes it

1019
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:04,880
Speaker 1: through the winter and Ukraine survives through the winter, Russia

1020
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 1: keeps their their position keeps disintegrating. You could you could

1021
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 1: see how Putin might want some type of negotiated solution

1022
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 1: that he's that still allows him. I bet he'll want

1023
00:57:14,680 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 1: to keep fighting in the in the dome Boss, so

1024
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 1: that he can tell the population that they didn't lose

1025
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: the war, because you have there, there's there's been some

1026
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 1: interesting analysis around Putin's thinking here. He can't say that

1027
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 1: they lost, just like the way that the United States

1028
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 1: never wants to lose, like we declare victory and we leave.

1029
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 1: So he needs to find a way to declare victory

1030
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 1: and leave it. One way would be that he'll keep

1031
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 1: propping up some insurgency and just and just keep throwing

1032
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 1: bodies like it's its most cynical, diabolical thing. Uh. But

1033
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 1: I could see an end to that, which means the

1034
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: economy globally, you know, could could be in a smoother

1035
00:57:47,800 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 1: situation over the next couple of years. But I think,

1036
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 1: what what what Biden is so excited about? He considers

1037
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 1: himself lunch paled Joe, middle class Joe. Let's throw throw

1038
00:57:58,120 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 1: up this next element really a selojoa a more perfect

1039
00:58:00,760 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: union Democrats and the working class. So okay, start with this.

1040
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: They make the point working people's issues are winning issues.

1041
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 1: In Nebraska raised them in on wage, DC ended the

1042
00:58:14,520 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: tipped wage, Arizona, crackdown on medical debt. Illinois protected workers' rights,

1043
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: South Dakota expanded medicaid, Missouri, Maryland illegalized weed fromont California, Michigan,

1044
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 1: Kentucky all protected abortion. They also they all more perfect.

1045
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,360
Speaker 1: Union also pulled out some of the exit polling data.

1046
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of households and this this might surprise people,

1047
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 1: fifty two percent of households with income under fifty thousand

1048
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 1: dollars supported Democrats. The bottom fifty percent of earners have

1049
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 1: seen the biggest increase in real incomes since twenty twenty

1050
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 1: one plus ten point five percent, And so while inflation

1051
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,920
Speaker 1: has eaten away at a lot of people's wages, the

1052
00:58:53,960 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 1: people at the bottom bottom fifty percent have legitimately seen

1053
00:58:57,280 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 1: for the first time an actual real wages going up.

1054
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: So then they added Meanwhile, households making fifty to one

1055
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:09,320
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars worth of them most likely to vote Republican,

1056
00:59:09,400 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 1: like kind of loop and proletariat. Well, the middle forty

1057
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 1: percent of earners have seen their real income stagnate, So

1058
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 1: those people materially have been hurt the most by inflation,

1059
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 1: and haven't they spend more, So that actually means that

1060
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:27,600
Speaker 1: they're hurt more by inflation. When you spend less, you know,

1061
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:31,840
Speaker 1: just basic math, it's going to hurt less. So those

1062
00:59:31,880 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 1: folks ended up voting strongest Republican. I saw the more

1063
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: Perfect Union tweet, and that's it's looking at results from

1064
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 1: two exit polls. It looks like it's from the Washington Post,

1065
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 1: not the polls, but the mash above the polls. And

1066
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:49,320
Speaker 1: I actually don't see this as great news for Democrats

1067
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 1: because what you have, first of all, that fifty thousand

1068
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 1: to one hundred thousand demographic where you have fifty two

1069
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 1: percent of them voting Republican and only forty five percent

1070
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 1: of them voting Democrat. If the exit poll is to

1071
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 1: be belie, if you're a household and you have multiple

1072
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 1: kids making fifty thousand dollars to one hundred thousand dollars

1073
01:00:05,760 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 1: depending on where you live, that's not a lot of money.

1074
01:00:08,560 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 1: Those are working class people too, Yeah, very very much.

1075
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 1: Basically the working class is split, right, And if you

1076
01:00:15,000 --> 01:00:17,800
Speaker 1: go down to the second pole from AP vote cast

1077
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 1: that's in the more Perfect Union tweet, they say household

1078
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 1: income under fifty thousand dollars forty eight percent dem to

1079
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 1: forty seven percent Republican, well within the margin of error.

1080
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 1: And also, exit polls are tough anyway. Exit polls are

1081
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 1: super tough. So let alone when you have a divide

1082
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:35,120
Speaker 1: forty eight forty seven and again, Republicans in the AP

1083
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 1: exit poll fifty one percent for that fifty to one

1084
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:43,439
Speaker 1: hundred thousand demographic and forty five percent for Dems, which

1085
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:46,440
Speaker 1: is almost exactly what the Network exit poll showed as well.

1086
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 1: So you're right, it shows that the working class is split,

1087
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 1: and I think that's really I don't know. I mean

1088
01:00:53,640 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 1: historical trends I'd love to see. But that's for Republicans.

1089
01:00:57,520 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 1: That means to that needs to be awake, call that

1090
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 1: you need to have a clear message on the economy.

1091
01:01:04,360 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: That's not just Joe Biden sucks, and that's not just

1092
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 1: Democrats are big spenders. You have to have something to

1093
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:13,840
Speaker 1: offer people. And to your point about the right to

1094
01:01:13,920 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 1: work fight, that actually is really interesting. So orn cass

1095
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,440
Speaker 1: Over at American compas suited. The political realignment continues a pace.

1096
01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: The opportunity to translate a multi ethnic working class Conservatism

1097
01:01:24,360 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: into a durable governing majority is just sitting there staring

1098
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: at everyone. But will Trump spurred a working class realignment,

1099
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 1: he does not offer a formula for conservatives to capitalize

1100
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:37,080
Speaker 1: on it. I think that's absolutely true. There's nothing on

1101
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 1: the table from Republicans right now. We saw Tom Connon

1102
01:01:39,560 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 1: introduce a bill to increase the minimum wage in the Senate,

1103
01:01:43,640 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 1: absolutely no where it was castigated for forwarding them. Right,

1104
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,600
Speaker 1: You've got some of these Republicans who are like, look,

1105
01:01:50,600 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 1: we're going to appeal to the working class's cultural grievances.

1106
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:58,440
Speaker 1: Legitimate claure as we have as we have them in

1107
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:02,600
Speaker 1: then we're gonna win them over with minimum wage increases.

1108
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:04,439
Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna shed a lot of that reg

1109
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 1: and I kind of like right wing stuff, and we're

1110
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna actually take care of them both materially

1111
01:02:09,760 --> 01:02:13,760
Speaker 1: and then culturally. But right if all you can do

1112
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: is appeal to half of them culturally and then you

1113
01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 1: don't even give them anything, then I think you get

1114
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:24,800
Speaker 1: to a place where voters get frustrated with Trump no

1115
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 1: longer on the ballot, like because they have to figure

1116
01:02:27,840 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 1: out what what are they in a post Trump world?

1117
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:35,320
Speaker 1: And if if it's just grievances and vibes, at some point,

1118
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 1: people aren't gonna They're going to go back to where

1119
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 1: they were pre Trump, which is not voting. Yeah. No,

1120
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:46,520
Speaker 1: absolutely completely agree, Ryan, you actually have something getting into

1121
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 1: the internet scene conversations on the left, and I'm really excited.

1122
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:53,920
Speaker 1: This was an interview with AOC. Yeah, So yesterday evening

1123
01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:56,680
Speaker 1: I interviewed Congress from an Alexandria Kasio Cortez to get

1124
01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 1: her reaction to the election and her take on what

1125
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 1: Democrats are to do from here, and she said that

1126
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:05,160
Speaker 1: if Republicans do end up with a tiny majority in

1127
01:03:05,200 --> 01:03:08,920
Speaker 1: the House, Democrats ought to push them relentlessly on abortion rights,

1128
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 1: both legislatively and with executive action, to make the lives

1129
01:03:13,280 --> 01:03:17,640
Speaker 1: of the remaining moderates miserable. She said, quote, I think

1130
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:20,840
Speaker 1: we take advantage of the disorganization of the Republican caucus.

1131
01:03:21,000 --> 01:03:23,200
Speaker 1: I do not believe that Kevin McCarthy is a strong

1132
01:03:23,320 --> 01:03:27,200
Speaker 1: leader whatsoever, and I think we inflict a lot of

1133
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: pain on this and either it becomes enough of a

1134
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 1: liability with them that they have to let something through

1135
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 1: because they're just getting killed on this issue, or they

1136
01:03:34,920 --> 01:03:38,080
Speaker 1: lose in two years that they either capitulate and pass

1137
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 1: some actual legislation or they get beaten in twenty twenty

1138
01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 1: four over it. So you can read the first part

1139
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:44,880
Speaker 1: of the interview, which goes over a bunch of different

1140
01:03:44,880 --> 01:03:46,600
Speaker 1: stuff as well over at the intercept, but I wanted

1141
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 1: to play some of the rest of it here and

1142
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: then get Emily's response back on that point about making

1143
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 1: some pain republic for Republicans on abortion rights. If you

1144
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 1: do end up losing those seats in York, probably a

1145
01:04:00,640 --> 01:04:02,920
Speaker 1: lot of them are going to be you know, uncomfortable

1146
01:04:02,960 --> 01:04:06,960
Speaker 1: with the Republican position and kind of politically vulnerable around it.

1147
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 1: Yet they do feel pretty confident saying that they're against

1148
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 1: whippa because they caricature it as you know, uh, you know,

1149
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 1: killing babies right before birth or you know, whatever their

1150
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:22,959
Speaker 1: talking points are. But Whippa does go beyond codifying Robi Wade.

1151
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 1: So where do you come down on the question of

1152
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 1: trying to get get the codification of Row into law

1153
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:37,440
Speaker 1: versus holding out for the kind of maximalist Whippa legislation. Well,

1154
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:43,240
Speaker 1: you know, I think when it comes to something like whippa,

1155
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,240
Speaker 1: I think that Republicans, you know, a lot of this

1156
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 1: is just about messaging, right, And so Roe, I think

1157
01:04:51,080 --> 01:04:59,000
Speaker 1: in the in public imagination, I believe that Roe really

1158
01:04:59,280 --> 01:05:03,840
Speaker 1: stands for and what people really see as Row is

1159
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:09,320
Speaker 1: a woman or a person's ability to have bodily autonomy

1160
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 1: and make these decisions between them and their doctor. And

1161
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 1: Republicans where they try to go in against Whippa is

1162
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 1: by trying to flies and dice and make these questions

1163
01:05:23,120 --> 01:05:26,439
Speaker 1: about fifteen weeks or twenty weeks or thirty weeks. And

1164
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 1: I don't and like I think, for a very long

1165
01:05:29,200 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 1: time people have kind of run away from that fight.

1166
01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: I don't think that we need to litigate number of weeks.

1167
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 1: I think, if anything, in the aftermath of Row, there

1168
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:44,880
Speaker 1: have been an enormous amount of conversations about the enormous

1169
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 1: amount of circumstances in which a person like these are

1170
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 1: in which like this is not applying to this kind

1171
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 1: of myth of third trimester elective abortions, where like there's

1172
01:05:58,200 --> 01:06:05,120
Speaker 1: nothing else that's wrong. And I, you know, I think

1173
01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:08,280
Speaker 1: that when we try to like really bring this down

1174
01:06:08,320 --> 01:06:11,640
Speaker 1: and campaign on WHIPA, I think we do ourselves a

1175
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:14,720
Speaker 1: disservice by like, I think we can remain focused on

1176
01:06:14,760 --> 01:06:19,320
Speaker 1: the overall principle here, which is people should be able

1177
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,720
Speaker 1: to make these decisions between themselves and their doctor. So

1178
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:26,439
Speaker 1: how do you think that answer kind of resonates with

1179
01:06:27,480 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 1: the moderate Republicans that she'll be so In other words,

1180
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:32,840
Speaker 1: we were talking in the first segment about New York,

1181
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 1: where a bunch maybe four or five Republicans are going

1182
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:39,040
Speaker 1: to win by a couple thousand votes in these New

1183
01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 1: York districts, they are extremely vulnerable to losing in twenty

1184
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 1: twenty four. So the idea would be that every day

1185
01:06:46,800 --> 01:06:50,760
Speaker 1: they'd have to, they'd be facing pressure from constituents, get

1186
01:06:50,760 --> 01:06:55,000
Speaker 1: behind Democrats to codify Roe v. Wade, and then they

1187
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 1: would say, yeah, but they're extremists because they want to

1188
01:06:58,640 --> 01:07:02,680
Speaker 1: kill babies right before they're born. Yeah. Do you think

1189
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 1: that she's right that this is a messaging issue, not

1190
01:07:07,560 --> 01:07:11,800
Speaker 1: a Toward the very end, she was like, I don't

1191
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 1: think we're at a place where we're compromising yet it

1192
01:07:14,200 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 1: seemed like she was leaving the door open for compromising.

1193
01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:20,160
Speaker 1: She was like, She's like, we haven't tried everything yet,

1194
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:23,040
Speaker 1: so what do you think as you listen to that?

1195
01:07:23,440 --> 01:07:27,160
Speaker 1: So I think she's right that it is a messaging fight,

1196
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:30,760
Speaker 1: but I think that in the irony is in that

1197
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:35,520
Speaker 1: same answer. First of all, she corrected herself when she said,

1198
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:38,360
Speaker 1: in the public imagination, people see rowe as being something

1199
01:07:38,400 --> 01:07:40,520
Speaker 1: that's about a woman's right to choose. She said, woman

1200
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:44,040
Speaker 1: or person. Corrected herself. That might seem like a little thing,

1201
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 1: but in the messaging battle for independence, that's not going

1202
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:51,479
Speaker 1: to fly. When you can say, when Republicans can say

1203
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 1: this is absurd, that's not going to fly. When you

1204
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:56,919
Speaker 1: talk about the myth of why people get seek third

1205
01:07:56,920 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 1: trimester abortions and that there's nothing else wrong, Well, there are,

1206
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:04,200
Speaker 1: it depends, but when they're the sort of broad mental

1207
01:08:04,240 --> 01:08:07,560
Speaker 1: health categorization that a lot of people seek their trimester

1208
01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:10,000
Speaker 1: abortions under, that's also not going to fly in the

1209
01:08:10,000 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 1: messaging fight because there's a lot Republicans can do. And

1210
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:15,760
Speaker 1: does that happen, Yes, that happens, and it does. And

1211
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:18,439
Speaker 1: Gutmacher has interesting numbers on that actually is a pro

1212
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,840
Speaker 1: abortion think tank. But even again, like this was what

1213
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 1: was bad for Ralph Northam was even people hearing about one.

1214
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:28,680
Speaker 1: I mean, even if it's rare, it's extremely abhorrent in

1215
01:08:28,720 --> 01:08:31,439
Speaker 1: the to borrow a phrase of the public imagination. And

1216
01:08:31,640 --> 01:08:34,679
Speaker 1: Republicans I think are correct. A lot of the fallout

1217
01:08:34,760 --> 01:08:39,320
Speaker 1: from the midterm conversation the SBA List so a big

1218
01:08:39,360 --> 01:08:41,360
Speaker 1: pro life group. They came in and said right away

1219
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:44,160
Speaker 1: that the Republicans who had clear and convincing principle and

1220
01:08:44,200 --> 01:08:47,080
Speaker 1: answers on abortion did well as opposed to doctor Oz.

1221
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 1: So like, if you look at what doctor Oz does,

1222
01:08:48,560 --> 01:08:51,640
Speaker 1: he didn't want to talk about abortion. I don't know,

1223
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's the correct take. I think

1224
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:58,160
Speaker 1: it definitely is in the case of Oz. But Republicans

1225
01:08:58,240 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 1: really believe that they can neutralize Democrats conversations about codifying

1226
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,559
Speaker 1: Row with things like whippa. And that's kind of the

1227
01:09:05,720 --> 01:09:08,400
Speaker 1: point that you were getting to about the political sort

1228
01:09:08,439 --> 01:09:13,200
Speaker 1: of calculus here, And I think that's what Representative Okazi

1229
01:09:13,240 --> 01:09:18,479
Speaker 1: Kortz is missing, that there's something Republicans really can seize on.

1230
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 1: And maybe she knows that, but those sort of the

1231
01:09:22,040 --> 01:09:25,280
Speaker 1: cultural conversation the left wants to have around abortion is

1232
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:30,160
Speaker 1: in the same way that the Republican position on pre

1233
01:09:30,280 --> 01:09:34,439
Speaker 1: fifteen week bands. My position on abortion is wildly unpopular

1234
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,320
Speaker 1: with the American people. It is not a popular position whatsoever.

1235
01:09:37,960 --> 01:09:39,839
Speaker 1: Neither is the sort of other end of that spectrum

1236
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:42,040
Speaker 1: on the left. And in a state like New York

1237
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:46,000
Speaker 1: where Republicans are clearly making inroads, for Leezelden to be

1238
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:49,879
Speaker 1: within five points, it's a big deal. I think you're

1239
01:09:49,960 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 1: right that they would be very vulnerable in the next

1240
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 1: couple of years, those people who won those House seats.

1241
01:09:54,320 --> 01:09:56,800
Speaker 1: And I don't know, I don't know. That's a good question.

1242
01:09:57,080 --> 01:10:01,479
Speaker 1: So why did I mean, so, why didn't it work

1243
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 1: for Republicans this time? I mean, if that argument works

1244
01:10:05,680 --> 01:10:08,120
Speaker 1: is was it too close to Row? And it's too raw,

1245
01:10:08,600 --> 01:10:12,760
Speaker 1: Like if if the counter to Hey Roe was overturned,

1246
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 1: we're angry, We're going to vote to get it back

1247
01:10:14,800 --> 01:10:17,639
Speaker 1: into law. If the counter to that is, well, Democrats

1248
01:10:17,680 --> 01:10:19,839
Speaker 1: are going to do extremist stuff that's going to kill babies.

1249
01:10:20,600 --> 01:10:24,559
Speaker 1: Why didn't that counter blunt the abortion abortion rights energy

1250
01:10:24,640 --> 01:10:27,560
Speaker 1: in this election? I mean, I think it did. In Wisconsin,

1251
01:10:27,920 --> 01:10:31,160
Speaker 1: Ron Johnson hanging in, hanging in there. I think there

1252
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:34,240
Speaker 1: was a lot, you know, spent on DeSantis and Rubio,

1253
01:10:34,479 --> 01:10:38,360
Speaker 1: and they hung in there pretty clearly. I think Beto

1254
01:10:38,479 --> 01:10:42,400
Speaker 1: and Stacy Abrams tried that and lost pretty decisively. So

1255
01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:44,880
Speaker 1: I guess we'll see in Nevada, in Arizona. Those are

1256
01:10:45,000 --> 01:10:48,400
Speaker 1: very close races that could go the other way, right right,

1257
01:10:48,520 --> 01:10:50,120
Speaker 1: right right. And so that's not to say like I

1258
01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:52,880
Speaker 1: actually think it's it's completely true, and I get into

1259
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 1: this a little bit in my thing, there was an

1260
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:58,400
Speaker 1: underestimation of how much the abortion issue would help Democrats,

1261
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:02,040
Speaker 1: especially as we look at the youth voter out So no,

1262
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't deny that at all, but I

1263
01:11:05,080 --> 01:11:09,000
Speaker 1: do think Democrats as they as they moved away, especially

1264
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:11,200
Speaker 1: in recent weeks, from talking about abortion, like over the

1265
01:11:11,240 --> 01:11:13,240
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks wasn't a long time. They spent

1266
01:11:13,280 --> 01:11:15,559
Speaker 1: a lot talking about abortion. But as they moved away

1267
01:11:15,560 --> 01:11:17,040
Speaker 1: from it, and they moved away in some of those

1268
01:11:17,040 --> 01:11:19,880
Speaker 1: swing state races probably earlier from talking so much about it,

1269
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 1: it was because Republicans were successfully sort of the Republicans

1270
01:11:24,439 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 1: never used to do this, They never used to say, well,

1271
01:11:28,040 --> 01:11:29,640
Speaker 1: like Kerry Lake did this one She talked to a

1272
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:31,760
Speaker 1: reporter and she was like, did you ask Democrats what

1273
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 1: restrictions that they would support? And so on? The right

1274
01:11:36,080 --> 01:11:41,080
Speaker 1: might win, might win despite yeah, might win, And so

1275
01:11:41,160 --> 01:11:44,160
Speaker 1: Republicans believe that's sort of the ticket. That's if they

1276
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:46,799
Speaker 1: can tap into that, that'll be a way to neutralize

1277
01:11:46,840 --> 01:11:51,679
Speaker 1: this conversation. So if if Democrats believe that this never happens,

1278
01:11:52,280 --> 01:11:56,160
Speaker 1: then theoretically or in principle, they should be able to

1279
01:11:57,040 --> 01:12:01,160
Speaker 1: write laws and regulations around it that don't actually impact anybody. There.

1280
01:12:01,200 --> 01:12:05,960
Speaker 1: Their concern, as she articulated it, is that you're going

1281
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:08,600
Speaker 1: to wind up in a situation where you have a

1282
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:14,680
Speaker 1: topic pregnancies and other complications that require medical intervention, but

1283
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:20,240
Speaker 1: are then caught up in the regulatory apparatus rather than

1284
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:22,519
Speaker 1: just the medical apparatus, and that that shouldn't be the

1285
01:12:22,560 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 1: case that you need to just get get the law

1286
01:12:27,080 --> 01:12:30,040
Speaker 1: out of here, just let these decisions be between patients

1287
01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:33,960
Speaker 1: and doctors. So, I mean, that's the that's their counter argument.

1288
01:12:33,960 --> 01:12:37,600
Speaker 1: But if it's also true that it never happens, you

1289
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 1: would think there's got to be a way to satisfy

1290
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:46,360
Speaker 1: the normy voter who's against that and finds it like brutal,

1291
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:52,080
Speaker 1: and to undercut the Republican counter arguments by saying, Okay, yeah,

1292
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:57,920
Speaker 1: of course, like elective, purely elective, third trimester abortions should

1293
01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:01,400
Speaker 1: should not be should not be legal, which is if

1294
01:13:01,640 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 1: which is under row, like that's codifying row. Row allows yes,

1295
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:10,120
Speaker 1: states after viability to enact laws around what canon camp

1296
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:12,519
Speaker 1: be done. So if you're if you're four and Democrats,

1297
01:13:12,560 --> 01:13:15,720
Speaker 1: so it also leaves open and Republicans see that as

1298
01:13:15,720 --> 01:13:18,640
Speaker 1: a political kind of gift that codifying Row leaves it

1299
01:13:18,720 --> 01:13:21,519
Speaker 1: open to the states and doesn't ban that, which I

1300
01:13:21,520 --> 01:13:24,920
Speaker 1: think is a better fight for Democrats to have. Yeah, right,

1301
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:30,679
Speaker 1: you're right. Then let now you have Republicans against codifying Row, right, yes,

1302
01:13:30,800 --> 01:13:33,679
Speaker 1: and so now you're making them fight on very unpopular

1303
01:13:33,760 --> 01:13:35,439
Speaker 1: terrain for them. And we talked about this a lot

1304
01:13:35,479 --> 01:13:37,679
Speaker 1: over the summer that when you look at the polling

1305
01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:41,880
Speaker 1: between the popularity of ROW and then what ROE actually did,

1306
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:44,439
Speaker 1: so you can like the distinction between what the public

1307
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:46,800
Speaker 1: thinks about ROE and what the public thinks about the

1308
01:13:47,040 --> 01:13:51,840
Speaker 1: actual policy of Roe is totally different. And that's fine.

1309
01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:54,920
Speaker 1: I mean, it's to be expected. And that's what was saying,

1310
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:58,320
Speaker 1: that the public imagination about what ROE is is different.

1311
01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:01,240
Speaker 1: And I think to your point that, yeah, I think

1312
01:14:01,280 --> 01:14:05,240
Speaker 1: she's ultimately right, like this is about messaging. I just

1313
01:14:05,280 --> 01:14:08,759
Speaker 1: think to exactly everything we're talking about, the left doesn't

1314
01:14:08,840 --> 01:14:12,640
Speaker 1: realize what that messaging battle looks like for them. And

1315
01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:14,840
Speaker 1: just so that we have the numbers, This is twenty

1316
01:14:14,920 --> 01:14:19,080
Speaker 1: nineteen National Reviews writing about the Gutmacher Institute's actually from

1317
01:14:19,120 --> 01:14:22,680
Speaker 1: David French, who's not at National Review anymore, says Gutmacher

1318
01:14:22,720 --> 01:14:25,600
Speaker 1: pro abortion think tank has looked at the reasons for

1319
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:27,600
Speaker 1: late term abortion and the reasons are chilling. This is

1320
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:29,960
Speaker 1: from French. First, The top line finding is clear. This

1321
01:14:30,000 --> 01:14:32,720
Speaker 1: is a quote from Gutmacher. Data suggests that most women

1322
01:14:32,760 --> 01:14:35,040
Speaker 1: seeking later terminations are not doing so for reasons of

1323
01:14:35,040 --> 01:14:38,280
Speaker 1: fetal anomaly or life endangerment. Instead, there were quote five

1324
01:14:38,320 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 1: general profiles of women who sought later abortions, describing eighty

1325
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:43,799
Speaker 1: percent of the sample. These women were raising children alone,

1326
01:14:43,800 --> 01:14:46,280
Speaker 1: were depressed or using illicited substances, were in conflict with

1327
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,320
Speaker 1: a male partner, or experiencing domestic violence, had troubled deciding

1328
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:52,000
Speaker 1: and then had access problems, or were young and had

1329
01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 1: never given birth. So that's from Gutmacher. That's quote from Gupmacher.

1330
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:58,880
Speaker 1: This a third trimester. Yeah, so that's a that does

1331
01:14:59,000 --> 01:15:01,880
Speaker 1: say what the numbers were. That was eight so eighty

1332
01:15:01,920 --> 01:15:03,880
Speaker 1: percent of the sample. But you know what the sample? Well,

1333
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:06,000
Speaker 1: I mean do we know that? But I mean, to

1334
01:15:06,040 --> 01:15:09,280
Speaker 1: your point one is going to be enough to make

1335
01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:11,040
Speaker 1: the argument. But do we know what the numbers are

1336
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:15,519
Speaker 1: of how many? Yeah, well i'll here, let me click

1337
01:15:15,560 --> 01:15:18,960
Speaker 1: on the study. But yeah, I mean that's a big change.

1338
01:15:19,040 --> 01:15:21,080
Speaker 1: So oh of how many people get late term abortions? Yeah,

1339
01:15:21,080 --> 01:15:24,160
Speaker 1: that is right here. It's it's only one point three

1340
01:15:24,200 --> 01:15:28,200
Speaker 1: percent of abortions after twenty one weeks, but Gutmacher has

1341
01:15:28,240 --> 01:15:30,880
Speaker 1: put that number even higher. That's the CDC number that

1342
01:15:31,160 --> 01:15:34,599
Speaker 1: they say there's roughly twelve thousand late term abortions per year,

1343
01:15:35,040 --> 01:15:37,720
Speaker 1: which is again like as the chunk of total abortions

1344
01:15:38,120 --> 01:15:41,200
Speaker 1: very siniscule, but twelve thousand enough enough to make a

1345
01:15:41,200 --> 01:15:43,720
Speaker 1: political argument around. For sure. Yeah, it is a very

1346
01:15:43,720 --> 01:15:47,840
Speaker 1: small percentage and enough for normies to care about. In

1347
01:15:47,920 --> 01:15:51,559
Speaker 1: the Matt cart Right Jim Bognet debate, what Bognett kept

1348
01:15:51,640 --> 01:15:56,719
Speaker 1: hitting Matt cart Right on was elective abortions over gender.

1349
01:15:57,880 --> 01:16:00,800
Speaker 1: And you know, you find out you've got either a

1350
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:03,040
Speaker 1: boy or girl and you wanted the opposite gender, So

1351
01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 1: there's a there's an abortion, and he's like, that's that's brutal,

1352
01:16:06,200 --> 01:16:08,639
Speaker 1: that's that's terrible. And I'm sure that Paul's ninety percent

1353
01:16:08,680 --> 01:16:11,799
Speaker 1: of people would say, like, that's yes, yes, they disagree

1354
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:15,200
Speaker 1: with that. It's that that that feels like the kind

1355
01:16:15,280 --> 01:16:18,559
Speaker 1: of thing that Democrats could say, Okay, you know what,

1356
01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 1: you can't do that, because there are so many other

1357
01:16:21,479 --> 01:16:26,320
Speaker 1: reasons that somebody could get an abortion at ten weeks,

1358
01:16:26,439 --> 01:16:30,240
Speaker 1: eight weeks, what you know, fourteen whatever, It is pre

1359
01:16:30,360 --> 01:16:34,160
Speaker 1: viability that they don't have to say that, Like, so,

1360
01:16:34,200 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 1: how do you like, you're you're that's right, that's that's

1361
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:41,559
Speaker 1: regulating thoughts that you can't have and it's impossible to prove.

1362
01:16:42,280 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 1: So it seems like something democrats could actually just give

1363
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:48,320
Speaker 1: on like, you know what, fine, you cannot have an

1364
01:16:48,360 --> 01:16:53,840
Speaker 1: abortion over gender, And it actually wouldn't have any impact

1365
01:16:54,160 --> 01:16:56,439
Speaker 1: because somebody could say they're having it for a different reason,

1366
01:16:56,680 --> 01:17:00,479
Speaker 1: because it's up to them. And previously, when row was

1367
01:17:00,560 --> 01:17:04,599
Speaker 1: in law was in effect, I can see why Democrats

1368
01:17:04,600 --> 01:17:06,240
Speaker 1: would say, we're not we're not going anywhere near this.

1369
01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:10,960
Speaker 1: This is between a woman and our doctor. But now

1370
01:17:11,000 --> 01:17:13,280
Speaker 1: we're not. We're not living in a hypothetical world where

1371
01:17:13,320 --> 01:17:15,360
Speaker 1: abortion might be banned. We're in a world where abortion

1372
01:17:15,560 --> 01:17:19,880
Speaker 1: is banned. So what are you going to do in

1373
01:17:19,960 --> 01:17:22,880
Speaker 1: order to change that? Yeah? Or nothing? You're just going

1374
01:17:22,960 --> 01:17:26,920
Speaker 1: to sit there and like this is a conversation that

1375
01:17:26,960 --> 01:17:31,160
Speaker 1: dogged the pro life movement for decades about incrementalism, that's

1376
01:17:31,160 --> 01:17:32,879
Speaker 1: what it was. It was called in sort of conservative

1377
01:17:32,880 --> 01:17:35,200
Speaker 1: circles for a really long time, and it was a

1378
01:17:35,320 --> 01:17:38,320
Speaker 1: bitter debate, and that's where we saw you know, protests

1379
01:17:38,400 --> 01:17:42,959
Speaker 1: over you know, pro life people getting arrested outside abortion clinics.

1380
01:17:43,439 --> 01:17:45,120
Speaker 1: When you're on the other side of it, the stakes

1381
01:17:45,160 --> 01:17:49,479
Speaker 1: are really really, really high, obviously, and it draws you

1382
01:17:49,479 --> 01:17:53,040
Speaker 1: into that conversation about what's politically expedient versus what is

1383
01:17:53,120 --> 01:17:57,280
Speaker 1: right and is what's politically expedient what's right? And that's

1384
01:17:57,320 --> 01:17:59,639
Speaker 1: a really tough conversation to have. Obviously, the pro life

1385
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:04,760
Speaker 1: movements that the latter position that what's politically like we

1386
01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 1: need to do whatever we can do to curb this practice,

1387
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:11,320
Speaker 1: even if it's not the full measure. And I think

1388
01:18:11,479 --> 01:18:16,120
Speaker 1: for Democrats that conversation is now coming into focus. And really, honestly,

1389
01:18:16,479 --> 01:18:18,960
Speaker 1: people are just sit there and say, in the same

1390
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:21,280
Speaker 1: way that they look at pro life activist saying life

1391
01:18:21,320 --> 01:18:25,160
Speaker 1: begins at conception, they're saying, really, you're defending that, you're

1392
01:18:25,200 --> 01:18:30,240
Speaker 1: defending fertilization, Like we have technology increasingly to see what

1393
01:18:30,240 --> 01:18:32,639
Speaker 1: that looks like after the first week or so. Really,

1394
01:18:32,680 --> 01:18:35,240
Speaker 1: that's what you're going to bat for. Well when you

1395
01:18:35,320 --> 01:18:37,840
Speaker 1: have AOC and I really liked your interview because I

1396
01:18:37,840 --> 01:18:40,240
Speaker 1: think she was pretty transparent and working through her thoughts

1397
01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:43,040
Speaker 1: in the conversation with you. As she's sort of working

1398
01:18:43,080 --> 01:18:46,960
Speaker 1: through those thoughts. One thing that's glaring is people are

1399
01:18:47,280 --> 01:18:49,880
Speaker 1: like people are going to say, why are you why

1400
01:18:49,880 --> 01:18:52,160
Speaker 1: are you going to the map for that that, Like,

1401
01:18:52,280 --> 01:18:54,799
Speaker 1: we know what that baby looks like in the third trimester,

1402
01:18:54,920 --> 01:18:57,120
Speaker 1: we know what that looks like after twenty one weeks.

1403
01:18:57,320 --> 01:18:59,840
Speaker 1: Why are you fighting for that? Although there's a windows

1404
01:19:00,120 --> 01:19:01,400
Speaker 1: or most of the country, I think there's a window

1405
01:19:01,360 --> 01:19:03,240
Speaker 1: of the future here in the sense that if she

1406
01:19:03,360 --> 01:19:06,000
Speaker 1: and others are saying that this is a messaging fight,

1407
01:19:07,479 --> 01:19:11,160
Speaker 1: people are willing to change their messaging to win. Yeah,

1408
01:19:11,200 --> 01:19:13,400
Speaker 1: but they're not. Well, most people are not going to

1409
01:19:13,439 --> 01:19:16,400
Speaker 1: change their principles to win, right, So she's not saying

1410
01:19:16,400 --> 01:19:19,759
Speaker 1: this is a principled stand. She's saying, at this point,

1411
01:19:19,800 --> 01:19:22,920
Speaker 1: it's a messaging fight, and we think we can drive

1412
01:19:23,000 --> 01:19:26,439
Speaker 1: this message beat these moderate Republicans and that it will

1413
01:19:26,479 --> 01:19:29,479
Speaker 1: be seen in the public imagination as about row and

1414
01:19:29,520 --> 01:19:33,360
Speaker 1: that they will fail to move it into this extremist territory.

1415
01:19:33,840 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 1: If she's wrong about that and it's a messaging fight,

1416
01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 1: then they'll do different messaging. Yeah. I think that's totally true.

1417
01:19:40,360 --> 01:19:45,120
Speaker 1: On Medicare for all, you know, I think absolutely bold progressive.

1418
01:19:45,160 --> 01:19:47,920
Speaker 1: And we saw that happen in the nomination right, Like

1419
01:19:48,080 --> 01:19:51,479
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty nominating battle, everyone adopted all of

1420
01:19:51,520 --> 01:19:55,080
Speaker 1: these sort of burning adjacent positions like really quickly, with

1421
01:19:55,160 --> 01:19:57,280
Speaker 1: maybe the exception of Biden in a couple of cases.

1422
01:19:58,280 --> 01:20:02,280
Speaker 1: And if you have the corporateists like Kamala Harris going

1423
01:20:02,280 --> 01:20:05,280
Speaker 1: to the Hamptons to raise money and saying money ever roll.

1424
01:20:06,520 --> 01:20:08,760
Speaker 1: But I don't think abortion is an issue like that.

1425
01:20:08,840 --> 01:20:12,439
Speaker 1: I just especially when you're fighting for something like Whippo,

1426
01:20:13,160 --> 01:20:14,639
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I just don't think it works

1427
01:20:14,640 --> 01:20:16,800
Speaker 1: out the same way. This is such a good interview though.

1428
01:20:16,960 --> 01:20:18,880
Speaker 1: I'm really glad we played the audio here and we'll

1429
01:20:18,920 --> 01:20:21,000
Speaker 1: have more of it tomorrow. In the second half of

1430
01:20:21,040 --> 01:20:24,000
Speaker 1: the interview, we talked a lot about the left and

1431
01:20:24,560 --> 01:20:29,120
Speaker 1: the kind of disunity that we've seen online, what her

1432
01:20:29,200 --> 01:20:31,400
Speaker 1: role is in that, how she's been responding to it,

1433
01:20:31,439 --> 01:20:34,880
Speaker 1: how she's thinking it through. I didn't want to put

1434
01:20:34,880 --> 01:20:36,680
Speaker 1: it all up together because I wanted to let the

1435
01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:39,600
Speaker 1: first half the midterm reaction stuff breathe. So well, we

1436
01:20:39,640 --> 01:20:45,599
Speaker 1: can do that tomorrow, looking forward to it. The tidal

1437
01:20:45,600 --> 01:20:48,439
Speaker 1: wave narrative really started building over the course of the

1438
01:20:48,520 --> 01:20:50,719
Speaker 1: last week or so, just the last week when races

1439
01:20:50,720 --> 01:20:54,559
Speaker 1: that seemed to lean Democrat were categorized instead as toss ups.

1440
01:20:54,800 --> 01:20:57,759
Speaker 1: Think of New Hampshire Senate race and the governor races

1441
01:20:57,800 --> 01:21:01,040
Speaker 1: in New York and Michigan. Democrats won all of those

1442
01:21:01,120 --> 01:21:04,200
Speaker 1: races comfortably. When all was said and done. Some polls

1443
01:21:04,320 --> 01:21:08,280
Speaker 1: overestimated Republican support during the home stretch, perhaps because, as

1444
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:11,599
Speaker 1: Robert Kahali of Trafalgar was saying out of the election,

1445
01:21:12,160 --> 01:21:15,799
Speaker 1: they were trying to correct for Republican voters who didn't

1446
01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:18,639
Speaker 1: want to talk to polsters or say how they planned

1447
01:21:18,640 --> 01:21:22,280
Speaker 1: to vote. That had worked previously for some posters like

1448
01:21:22,320 --> 01:21:25,400
Speaker 1: Trafalgar when Trump was on the ballot. Some polls were

1449
01:21:25,439 --> 01:21:29,479
Speaker 1: also reasonably close. Oddly, in Oklahoma, the polls had Republican

1450
01:21:29,479 --> 01:21:32,360
Speaker 1: Governor Kevin Stitt in a much tougher race. He ended

1451
01:21:32,400 --> 01:21:35,920
Speaker 1: up winning by double digits. Some poles had him down. Basically,

1452
01:21:35,960 --> 01:21:39,320
Speaker 1: the hits and misses were absolutely all over the place.

1453
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:42,920
Speaker 1: The polling industry is in a state of crisis. We

1454
01:21:43,000 --> 01:21:45,519
Speaker 1: saw that in twenty sixteen, we saw it in twenty twenty,

1455
01:21:45,560 --> 01:21:48,519
Speaker 1: and pollsters are not shy about saying any of this either.

1456
01:21:49,000 --> 01:21:51,479
Speaker 1: All of this cycle, they were warning us that the

1457
01:21:51,560 --> 01:21:56,439
Speaker 1: industry was struggling badly. Nevertheless, campaigns and media outlets have

1458
01:21:56,560 --> 01:22:00,680
Speaker 1: to rely on some barometers of public opinion. Money and

1459
01:22:00,800 --> 01:22:04,720
Speaker 1: media coverage follows the polls. Think about that and think

1460
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:06,880
Speaker 1: about how it affects with the money and the media

1461
01:22:06,920 --> 01:22:10,280
Speaker 1: coverage ends up. It's not just political bias, clearly, it's

1462
01:22:10,280 --> 01:22:13,680
Speaker 1: about rapid shifts and technology, big early and mail in

1463
01:22:13,760 --> 01:22:17,120
Speaker 1: voting pushes, and generational shifts that basically make it really

1464
01:22:17,160 --> 01:22:21,439
Speaker 1: hard for polsters to confidently capture voting patterns. Think about

1465
01:22:21,479 --> 01:22:25,160
Speaker 1: youth turnout, it seems likely that polsters and pundits may

1466
01:22:25,200 --> 01:22:28,919
Speaker 1: have underestimated the effect abortion had on driving up turnout

1467
01:22:28,960 --> 01:22:32,160
Speaker 1: among younger voters and student loan forgiveness as well. Ryan

1468
01:22:32,160 --> 01:22:34,880
Speaker 1: and Crystal actually zeroed in on that possibility as the

1469
01:22:34,920 --> 01:22:38,240
Speaker 1: returns were still coming in on Tuesday. We sit here

1470
01:22:38,320 --> 01:22:41,000
Speaker 1: all cycle not to dismiss the logic of democrats heavy

1471
01:22:41,040 --> 01:22:45,959
Speaker 1: focus on abortion and democracy, because midterm cycles are about turnout. Personally,

1472
01:22:46,120 --> 01:22:48,519
Speaker 1: I didn't underestimate the effect of those narratives, but I

1473
01:22:48,560 --> 01:22:53,200
Speaker 1: did overestimate the effect of inflation, assuming turnout from economic

1474
01:22:53,240 --> 01:22:56,439
Speaker 1: voters would offset it. And as I said here last week,

1475
01:22:56,479 --> 01:23:00,960
Speaker 1: that Democrats were botching their democracy messaging by separating it

1476
01:23:01,240 --> 01:23:05,720
Speaker 1: entirely from the economy. Political consultants are dumb and overpriced,

1477
01:23:05,760 --> 01:23:08,200
Speaker 1: that's true, but they don't want to lose. That's just

1478
01:23:08,280 --> 01:23:11,120
Speaker 1: not good for business. Something was telling them to push

1479
01:23:11,160 --> 01:23:14,559
Speaker 1: abortion heavily and That's a perfectly plausible explanation for one

1480
01:23:14,600 --> 01:23:17,800
Speaker 1: of the reasons. Fetterman, who benefited big time from early

1481
01:23:17,920 --> 01:23:20,920
Speaker 1: voting even before his debate. It's probably around half a

1482
01:23:20,960 --> 01:23:24,479
Speaker 1: million votes for him were cast, defeated Oz, who never

1483
01:23:24,560 --> 01:23:27,519
Speaker 1: had a good answer on abortion. The same goes for

1484
01:23:27,920 --> 01:23:31,680
Speaker 1: democracy in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania's governor races. Some of my

1485
01:23:31,760 --> 01:23:34,240
Speaker 1: quick takeaways serve on the thirty thousand foot level, or

1486
01:23:34,280 --> 01:23:37,880
Speaker 1: that Republicans continue to dramatically underestimate how big of a

1487
01:23:37,920 --> 01:23:42,160
Speaker 1: disadvantage raw maga can be. You can't replicate whatever it

1488
01:23:42,200 --> 01:23:45,160
Speaker 1: is about Donald Trump that brings Rustbelt voters to him

1489
01:23:45,280 --> 01:23:48,160
Speaker 1: and not Oz, or to him and not Mastriano, or

1490
01:23:48,160 --> 01:23:51,120
Speaker 1: to him and not Hersha Walker. That doesn't fly even

1491
01:23:51,160 --> 01:23:53,920
Speaker 1: in a bad economy with an unpopular president and certain

1492
01:23:53,960 --> 01:23:58,000
Speaker 1: crime surging in certain areas and cities like Milwaukee and Philadelphia.

1493
01:23:58,240 --> 01:24:02,320
Speaker 1: Republicans also take the quote realignment for granted, assuming that

1494
01:24:02,400 --> 01:24:05,920
Speaker 1: Fetterman and Tim Ryan and Mentela Barnes couldn't compete in

1495
01:24:05,960 --> 01:24:09,599
Speaker 1: those Obama Trump areas they felt had become solidly read.

1496
01:24:10,000 --> 01:24:11,840
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that's just not going to happen with

1497
01:24:11,920 --> 01:24:14,439
Speaker 1: doctor Oz. You should look at the change in Erie

1498
01:24:14,479 --> 01:24:17,400
Speaker 1: County their Senate and governor races from twenty twenty to

1499
01:24:17,439 --> 01:24:20,400
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. Oz We said many times here is

1500
01:24:20,439 --> 01:24:23,920
Speaker 1: basically the worst person to put up against John Fetterman, who,

1501
01:24:24,080 --> 01:24:28,839
Speaker 1: especially before his unfortunate stroke, was a very good candidate.

1502
01:24:29,320 --> 01:24:32,800
Speaker 1: Economic populism is not whatever doctor Oz ran on. It's

1503
01:24:32,800 --> 01:24:35,559
Speaker 1: about making people feel understood and heard and then explaining

1504
01:24:35,560 --> 01:24:38,080
Speaker 1: a clear plan. Or in cass Over at the Conservative

1505
01:24:38,120 --> 01:24:41,320
Speaker 1: American Compass put it well on Twitter, writing quote, well,

1506
01:24:41,360 --> 01:24:44,639
Speaker 1: Trump spurred a working class realignment, he does not offer

1507
01:24:44,720 --> 01:24:48,440
Speaker 1: a formula for Conservatives to capitalize on it. Successfully assembling

1508
01:24:48,479 --> 01:24:52,959
Speaker 1: a new coalition requires coherent economic principles and a concrete agenda,

1509
01:24:53,320 --> 01:24:56,519
Speaker 1: not just rejection of what came before. That's exactly what

1510
01:24:56,600 --> 01:24:59,120
Speaker 1: Republicans ran on this cycle, by the way, rejection of

1511
01:24:59,160 --> 01:25:01,840
Speaker 1: what would come before of them Joe Biden. The wrong

1512
01:25:01,920 --> 01:25:04,360
Speaker 1: lesson for Republicans would be that Trump was mistaken to

1513
01:25:04,400 --> 01:25:07,040
Speaker 1: blow up the GOP and everything to just go back

1514
01:25:07,120 --> 01:25:09,920
Speaker 1: to the days of Mitt Romney. The blow up had

1515
01:25:09,920 --> 01:25:12,439
Speaker 1: to happen, but rebuilding from the wreckage might be a

1516
01:25:12,520 --> 01:25:15,559
Speaker 1: job for someone else. All that is to say, the

1517
01:25:15,680 --> 01:25:19,800
Speaker 1: narrative is frustrating. Even the GOP's losses in Oregon and

1518
01:25:19,880 --> 01:25:23,080
Speaker 1: New York are pretty big wins for Republicans and pretty

1519
01:25:23,120 --> 01:25:26,120
Speaker 1: big on the flip side black eyes for Democrats. Whatever

1520
01:25:26,160 --> 01:25:28,320
Speaker 1: happens in La for Karen Bass could turn out that

1521
01:25:28,360 --> 01:25:30,920
Speaker 1: way too. Still, I do like how one Twitter user

1522
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:33,720
Speaker 1: put it in response to me that those races demonstrated

1523
01:25:33,760 --> 01:25:37,120
Speaker 1: more of a blue backlash than a red wave, and

1524
01:25:37,160 --> 01:25:40,880
Speaker 1: the distinction between those two is pretty important. Also, there's

1525
01:25:40,920 --> 01:25:43,120
Speaker 1: a good chance right now Republicans take the House in

1526
01:25:43,120 --> 01:25:45,720
Speaker 1: the Senate as it stands, well, we're having this conversation

1527
01:25:46,160 --> 01:25:49,439
Speaker 1: that was totally written off after Dobbs. The media coverage

1528
01:25:49,439 --> 01:25:51,880
Speaker 1: about what was going to happen to Republicans after Dobbs

1529
01:25:52,439 --> 01:25:55,040
Speaker 1: and all summer, by the way, as gas prices went

1530
01:25:55,080 --> 01:25:59,080
Speaker 1: down a little bit, was basically writing off Republican gains

1531
01:25:59,320 --> 01:26:02,200
Speaker 1: in a lot of different places. The huge GOP margins

1532
01:26:02,200 --> 01:26:06,280
Speaker 1: in Florida are very bad news for Democrats Ron Johnson,

1533
01:26:06,400 --> 01:26:10,679
Speaker 1: jd Vance, Marc Rubio, Brian Kemp, and Adam Laxell, among others. Laxel,

1534
01:26:10,720 --> 01:26:14,160
Speaker 1: we don't totally know yet prevailed the media's big storyline

1535
01:26:14,160 --> 01:26:17,479
Speaker 1: that democracy was hanging by a thread crumbled, as did

1536
01:26:17,479 --> 01:26:20,840
Speaker 1: the summer narrative about Dobbs crushing GOP hopes just across

1537
01:26:20,840 --> 01:26:24,439
Speaker 1: the board. Of course, it's true that as polling started

1538
01:26:24,439 --> 01:26:28,080
Speaker 1: to indicate a tidal wave was possible, that benchmark was

1539
01:26:28,160 --> 01:26:32,120
Speaker 1: set and anything short of great would be bad for Republicans.

1540
01:26:32,400 --> 01:26:37,080
Speaker 1: But it wasn't a really good night for anyone for Republicans, Democrats, polsters,

1541
01:26:37,160 --> 01:26:40,160
Speaker 1: or the media. Our politics are just a mess right now,

1542
01:26:40,400 --> 01:26:45,080
Speaker 1: and the mid time midterms reflected that. Ran It's kind

1543
01:26:45,080 --> 01:26:51,960
Speaker 1: of crazy because, as we'll continue this conversation tomorrow, there's

1544
01:26:51,960 --> 01:26:54,680
Speaker 1: plenty to talk about. You're getting a full dose of

1545
01:26:54,760 --> 01:26:58,920
Speaker 1: Counterpoints Friday this week. It's sort of like, if if

1546
01:26:58,920 --> 01:27:01,320
Speaker 1: it's a Sunday, it's Meet the Press, but for us

1547
01:27:01,360 --> 01:27:07,240
Speaker 1: it's if it's Thursday, it's Counterpoints Friday. See you guys.

1548
01:27:16,640 --> 01:27:16,960
Speaker 1: Mhm