1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:35,840 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 3: Begin this hour with stocks rising and bond heels falling 11 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 3: after Kevin Worsh made it clear the Central Bank will 12 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 3: not tolerate high inflation. Ed yourd any of your Denny research, 13 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 3: calling Worsh a quote hawk in Dove's clothing, writing we 14 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,560 Speaker 3: thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal 15 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 3: funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message 16 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 3: on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability and. 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 1: Joins us now for more at great to see. Thank 18 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: you for being here. 19 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 3: So is this more of an Alan Greenspan rather than 20 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 3: say and Alan Burns. 21 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 4: I really can't answer that because I have a test 22 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:13,039 Speaker 4: force working on that. We all it's very green span. 23 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 4: I mean, it's you know, not a lot of information, 24 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 4: a lot of ambiguity, and you know, occasionally some surprises. 25 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 4: So he started right off the bat with the surprise. 26 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 4: You know, it's kind of like he had an interview 27 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 4: with the President Trump and yes, told him everything that 28 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 4: he wanted. Yes, we're going to lower interest rates, SAI 29 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 4: is created, creating productivity. Then as soon as he got 30 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 4: the job, it's like the old worsh concerned about price stability. 31 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 4: He mentioned price stability over and over again. Not only that, 32 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,559 Speaker 4: but he pretty much committed to two percent. He didn't 33 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 4: finagel that too much at all. 34 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 3: Mike readif RBC said, by their account, inflation was mentioned 35 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 3: by Kevin Walsh nineteen times. The character four times where 36 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 3: he mentioned the labor market is this, and the labor 37 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: market is looking right exactly. There is no mention mandate 38 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 3: or a sense that maybe there's some weakness there in 39 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 3: conflict in the dual mandate. 40 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: Is this all talk and not action? 41 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 4: Right? 42 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: I Mean, if you. 43 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: Were skeptical, you would say this is somebody who wants 44 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 3: to job on the market. You're seeing the move that 45 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 3: he wanted in the flattening of the yield curve, and 46 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 3: then he won't necessarily. 47 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 4: I think he's hoping that he'll be lucky because so far, 48 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: so good. I mean, the price of oils coming down, 49 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 4: as you mentioned, the price of gasolines coming down. We 50 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 4: are going to see the headline inflation used coming down substantially. 51 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 4: And if he's lucky and the recent inflation surge doesn't 52 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 4: spread into the rest of the inflation numbers, then he 53 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,040 Speaker 4: may very well just kind of sit back and let 54 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:44,399 Speaker 4: that all happen, and then he'll say, well, look, things 55 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 4: are going in the right direction. We don't have to 56 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 4: do anything, and at the same time signal that down 57 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 4: the road, maybe the productivity story will come back as 58 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 4: a reason to lower rates, but right now it may 59 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 4: be do nothing fed for a while. 60 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 5: What if we see a labor market does weaken, Now, 61 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 5: what's his reactionary function going to be? 62 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 4: Well, he kind of locked himself in. I mean, you know, 63 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 4: he didn't say very much except on price stability. He 64 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 4: said that over and over again, and I think that 65 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 4: if you get a weaker labor market, he's going to 66 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 4: be called on. If he suddenly becomes very liberal, you know, 67 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 4: in the mandate and said, well, people are getting hurt. 68 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 4: We've got to focus on the unemployment rate. He basically 69 00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 4: said that in order to have a healthy economy, in 70 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 4: order to have a healthy labor market, you have to 71 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 4: have a price stability, which, by the way, is deja 72 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 4: vu all over again, because that's what Powell had been 73 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 4: saying for quite some time. 74 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 5: Do you think he was the one that threw out 75 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 5: the proposal of discussing a rate cut at the meeting 76 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 5: just so he can, you know, when he has breakfast 77 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 5: with the Treasury Secretary say, look I threw it out 78 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 5: there and I was pushed back. 79 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: We don't know. 80 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 4: I mean, you know, it's a good conspiracy. 81 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 1: Theory, right, could work. 82 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: It makes sense. You know. You can go back to 83 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 4: the President said, hey, I was the one who you 84 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 4: know well, but he said he didn't vote on the dutlot, 85 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: so you know, I don't know where he is on 86 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 4: all that. 87 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 3: So when you take a look at some of the 88 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 3: projections coming out of a number of different Wall Street houses, 89 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 3: some have been raising their expectations for a rate hike 90 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 3: this year. You saw that with Deutsche Bank saying that 91 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 3: with less communication, they can be more nimble and rate 92 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 3: hike rates sooner, even City Group, which has been on 93 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 3: the more dubbish side pushing back the potential for a 94 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 3: rate cut. If there are rate hikes, does that curtail 95 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,720 Speaker 3: the Roaring twenty twenties and some of the enthusiasm. 96 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: That we're seeing in equities? 97 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 3: Yes your story, yeah, so does it does affect? 98 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 4: And last time I was here, I think John mentioned 99 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 4: that we were six years into the Roaring twenty twenties. 100 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 4: If you just counted, we're actually seven years into the 101 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 4: Roaring twenty twenties. And so if I get this year right, 102 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 4: I only have three more to go. And every year 103 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: there's you know, it's a roller coaster ride. You get 104 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 4: all sorts of things to worry about. Maybe that's the 105 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 4: next worry is something we're worrying that. You know, if 106 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 4: the FED actually has to raise interest rates, then I 107 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 4: won't that spoiled the Roaring twenty twenties the party we're in, 108 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 4: And I don't think so. I think I think the 109 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 4: economy has demonstrated its resilience. People have been kind of 110 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 4: getting all bent out of shape about the bond yld 111 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 4: being back up. It's back to four and a hare percent, 112 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 4: that's kind of normal. I think the bondial is normalized. 113 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 4: I think FED policy is normalized. I mean, I think, 114 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 4: you know, worsh can just kind of leave things alone 115 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 4: here for a while because the economy is performing just fine. 116 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 3: Those are two different things, though, leaving it alone versus 117 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 3: hiking rates two different things, and understandably people are watching 118 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 3: what he does, not what he actually says. At the 119 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,159 Speaker 3: same time, if you do think about hiking two times 120 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 3: this year, which even Bob Michael of JPMorgan was talking 121 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,680 Speaker 3: about yesterday, how much does that in fact look potentially 122 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: some of what we're saying. 123 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 4: Look, when the apparel numbers came out real strong, we 124 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 4: kind of reiterate at our position that there was not 125 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 4: going to be any rate cuts this year and that 126 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 4: the FED would probably switch to a tightening bias at 127 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 4: this meeting, which is exactly what happened. They didn't go 128 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 4: from easy an easy bias in April to a neutral bias. 129 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,359 Speaker 4: They went right to a tightening bias. And so we 130 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 4: got that right. And but the thing that really surprised 131 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 4: me is how hawkish that a worsh came across. If 132 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 4: the FED were in a position where they had to 133 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 4: raise rates. It'd be a quarter fifty basis points. It 134 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 4: wouldn't be a big deal in my humble opinion, and 135 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 4: the bond market might actually rally on that. Back in 136 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 4: twenty twenty four, then the fedal overer the Fed funds 137 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 4: right by one hundred basis points. I said, you know, 138 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 4: I think you're making a mistake here because the economy 139 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 4: is resilient and you haven't gotten down to two percent. 140 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 4: And the bond market agreed with me, my bond vigilanti friends. 141 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 4: The bond yal went up one hundred basis points. And 142 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 4: even last year they cut sertenty five basis points on 143 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 4: the Fed funds rate in the bond yield, where is 144 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 4: it any four and a half percent? So they haven't 145 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 4: accomplished anything. So lowering rates hasn't helped, but they may conclude. Look, 146 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 4: the thing that really came across to me is that, 147 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 4: and he said it. Wor said, look, we haven't we 148 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 4: haven't gotten down to our two percent inflation target in 149 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 4: over five years. And he said he committed the committee 150 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 4: to get down to get inflation down to two percent, 151 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 4: So you know, how are you going to do that 152 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 4: without raising interest rates. So I think the market's got 153 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 4: it right now when we thought that there would be 154 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 4: a tightening bias and there could be an increase. If 155 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 4: the FED really wants to get it down to two percent, 156 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 4: that may be necessary. 157 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,239 Speaker 5: But what about the FED policy on the housing market, 158 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 5: because he said that's one area he does think it's restrictive. 159 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 4: Well, at the same time he's talking about reducing the 160 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 4: balance sheet and particularly focusing on fed's been talking for 161 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 4: a while about reducing the mortgage backed securities down to zero. 162 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 4: That's not going to help, uh, the housing market. I 163 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 4: don't think they've got an answer for that, you know. 164 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's a shotgun, it's not a rifle. 165 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 4: They there, there's and there's only so much the FED 166 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 4: can do. I'm a believer that, you know, if the 167 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:14,680 Speaker 4: FED is not in our face as much as it 168 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 4: was when Palell was around, I mean, I really don't 169 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 4: mind less less communication. I finally finally had been calling 170 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 4: in the Federal Open Mouth Committee. 171 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: Are you on the task force? As this is my 172 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 1: first question, Eroyd, are you on a task force? Which 173 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: one stay with us? 174 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 2: Mulple Impex surviance coming up after this. 175 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,199 Speaker 6: My whole life is all about deals. 176 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: That's all I if it did is make deals. 177 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 6: If they don't honor the agreements, who will probably go 178 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 6: back to bombing them. 179 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 3: Here's the latest, President Donald Trump signing an interim peace 180 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 3: deal with Iran last night. Norman rule of csis writing 181 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 3: the reported US or on deal is best understood as 182 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,320 Speaker 3: a high value pause in the current military phase of 183 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 3: the conflict, not a durable strategic settlement. The deal buys time, 184 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 3: it does not by trust. Norman joins us now from 185 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 3: more Norman, wonderful to get your perspective. 186 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: Can you just elaborate on that. 187 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 3: Why do you think that this fourteen point deal is 188 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 3: simply a placeholder and not necessarily a roadmap for what's 189 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: to come? 190 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 7: Good morning. The deal certainly has drawn a fair amount 191 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 7: of criticism from both opponents and supporters of the administration 192 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 7: for its language, but it provides a mechanism for the 193 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 7: administration to transfer the process from a military conflict which 194 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 7: had no longer provided options for a low cost way 195 00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 7: to restore access to the straight and to achieve its 196 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 7: previous goals, into a diplomatic process. Now, the diplomatic process 197 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 7: may not offer any optimism for its success, but the 198 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 7: diplomatic process immediately relieves pressure on the World Energy Mark 199 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 7: and the world economies and sort of reshuffles the deck 200 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 7: of options for the administration. Now, in terms of what 201 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 7: the Iranians will get out of this, absolutely they will 202 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 7: get some financial relief. But in fairness, the three hundred 203 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 7: billion dollar fund is described as a plan. There's absolutely 204 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 7: no reason to believe that anyone in their right mind 205 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 7: will donate money to this, given the fact that money 206 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 7: will be hostage to Iran's policy future sanctions, and that 207 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 7: Gulf states have been victims of Iranian attacks and are 208 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,079 Speaker 7: devoting most of their investments to their own economies. And 209 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 7: my last point that I would make on this is 210 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 7: that this process itself is tenuous, and the President and 211 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 7: the administration will need to improve early on that this 212 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 7: process is narrow, it is a reversible and it is 213 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 7: achieving something besides giving the Iranians additional liquidity Norman. 214 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 5: Given the fact that it is narrow, what happened to 215 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 5: the president's own red lines that he's spoken about for years? 216 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 7: Well, his red lines that he mentioned again in the 217 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 7: press conference yesterday will remain threefold. First, and ron cannot 218 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 7: have a pathway to a nuclear weapon that remains part 219 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 7: of this process, and indeed that's the primary effort of 220 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 7: upcoming talks. Now we've talked about missiles, and his statement 221 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 7: yesterday is that Ron can have a normal complement of 222 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 7: missiles that any country in the world might have. That's 223 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 7: not an ICBM, that's not an intermediate range ballistic missiles, 224 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 7: but that would be a defensive compliment that any country 225 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 7: would have, and that's got to be worked out with 226 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 7: its neighbors. And last day, Ron's got to do something 227 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 7: about its militias that it can't have a process. The 228 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 7: sense is that there's conversations that are going on on 229 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 7: the side of the steel that will work that out. 230 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 7: But that's a complicated regional diplomatic issue that they don't 231 00:11:43,280 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 7: want to put in the same basket as their initial 232 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 7: discussions with the already very hard nuclear issues. 233 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 5: The vice president, he was making the rounds doing some interviews, 234 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 5: as the reporter said that Ron's regen is quote a 235 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 5: much different group of people for whom quote something has 236 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 5: fundamentally transformed norm Do you see any evidence that this 237 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 5: is really a new regime. 238 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 7: Well, they're a new generation. They were raised in a 239 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:13,200 Speaker 7: different world of post two thousand and three worldview, So 240 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 7: certainly they have a different perspective. But there's no evidence 241 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 7: whatsoever that they believe that Uron should not be a 242 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 7: regional Hegemen, that they don't believe that they have a 243 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 7: right to and a reason to run malicious such as 244 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 7: Hezbollah and the who theis, and that they won't remain 245 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 7: a threat to their neighbors in the near term. But 246 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 7: clearly there are conversations going on between the administration and 247 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 7: some elements in the Iranian government that have given the 248 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 7: administration reason to believe this may be the case. The 249 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 7: trick is the administration needs to demonstrate somewhat early on 250 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 7: in the process that this process is proving that is, 251 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 7: that possibility may be realized. 252 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 3: Norm do you think that this realigns the US in 253 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 3: the region. It seems like the Gulf nations are happy 254 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 3: that the kinetic conflict will at least cease for now. 255 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 3: At the same time, Israel is pretty upset because of their. 256 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: Goals have not been reached. Do you think this. 257 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 3: Aligns the US more closely with Gulf nations and further 258 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 3: away from Israel. 259 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,559 Speaker 7: Well, let's look at Israel's goals. Iran's nuclear program has 260 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:24,040 Speaker 7: been devastated. Iran's missile program has been severely damaged. Now 261 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 7: at the same time, the regime remains in place. The 262 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 7: militias are no more active than they were prior to this. 263 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 7: The question I think for Israel is how long would 264 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 7: that conflict continue? And there are people in Israel and 265 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 7: the United States would like this conflict to continue, and 266 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 7: that's an ideological position. Now within the Gulf, they're paying 267 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 7: the price for that conflict with the missile striking their population. 268 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 7: There's no evidence the Gulf States as a group oppose 269 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 7: the deal the President is put forward, and the United 270 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:59,359 Speaker 7: States is seen as the indispensable security partner of the GCC. 271 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,959 Speaker 7: It may not be sufficient to be the only partner, 272 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 7: but it is the indispensable partner, and it leaves this 273 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 7: conflict much closer to all of these of the GCC states. 274 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 3: Do you think that buying time means sixty days or 275 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 3: do you think that buying time means till the end 276 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 3: of the year. 277 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 7: Yes, I think the answer is it could be either, 278 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 7: but it's going to depend upon events. And that's important 279 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 7: because all it takes would be some sort of high 280 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 7: casualty event. It might take place. God forbid in Lebanon, 281 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 7: which remains a separate arena from this. Neither Israel nor 282 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 7: the Lebanese has below or parties to this agreement, although 283 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 7: Lebanon is mentioned in the agreement. And some sort of 284 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 7: event could take place during the discussions which could take 285 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 7: these conversations out of joint and move this into a 286 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 7: different sort of dynamic. But the administration is going to 287 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 7: look for some way to show that the Iranians are 288 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 7: moving in the right direction, and that will take time. Remember, 289 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 7: nothing moves fast and talks with Iran no matter which 290 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 7: administration is dealing with him. And these issues are issues 291 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 7: that every administration has spent years struggling to work with Iran. 292 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 7: So it would be unfair to have to expect that 293 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 7: the Trump administration could achieve any of this quickly. 294 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 2: Stay with US MULTILINPEX diviance. 295 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 3: Coming up off to this, Claudia sam of New Century Advisors, writing, 296 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 3: I think it was a mistake by Warsh not to 297 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 3: participate in the statement of economic projections Orshe is leaving 298 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 3: huge blanks in his communication. The dot plots days may 299 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 3: be numbered, but it was critical for credibility. Claudia joins 300 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 3: US now for more Claudia, great to see you always 301 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 3: love getting your perspective. 302 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: Let's start there. Why was it a mistake not to 303 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: put a dot on that plot? 304 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 4: Right? 305 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,119 Speaker 6: Well, I think this statement ended with a very forceful 306 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 6: this committee will deliver price stability, which leads to a 307 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 6: natural question of how are you going to do that? 308 00:15:59,520 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: Right? 309 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 6: But how are you going to deliver? And then summary 310 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 6: of economic projections. It is not perfect. It's often misunderstood, 311 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 6: but that is actually the exercise of the dot plot. 312 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 6: It's actually each individual is like the FOMC there, what 313 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 6: is the appropriate path for federal funds rate? What's the 314 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 6: right monetary policy to get us to the dual mandate 315 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 6: that price stability? You know, two percent is where all 316 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 6: those forecasts end in twenty twenty eight. That's because of 317 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 6: they're working their way towards price stability and they adjust 318 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 6: their federal funds rate to get there. So they're like 319 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 6: putting together plans individually. And Kevin Worrish didn't participate in 320 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 6: that exercise, and he didn't flesh out in the press 321 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 6: conference his views of what a plan could be of 322 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 6: how to get to that price stability. 323 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 3: And this is partly by design, right, I mean He 324 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 3: talked about how he wanted the market to be one 325 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 3: of the key metrics that they. 326 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: Do look at, and that the market. 327 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 3: He wants to have clarity, a focus on the data 328 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 3: without trying to interpret how the FED would look at 329 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: the data. 330 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: And then respond to the Fed's response to the And 331 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: what do you make of that argument? 332 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 6: I think it's going to be a tough sell. And honestly, 333 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 6: I can you know set aside. He doesn't want to 334 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 6: talk about plans, he doesn't want to talk about the future. Okay, 335 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 6: that's a debate to have about communication. But what was 336 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 6: really striking is he didn't want to talk about the 337 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 6: decision they made this week. I mean, they say they 338 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,640 Speaker 6: want price stability. They voted unanimously to hold rate steady. 339 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 6: How is that in service of price stability? 340 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:28,679 Speaker 1: Are you saying he didn't think they should have hiked 341 00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 1: this meeting? 342 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 6: No, I think they should have explained why they chose 343 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 6: to hold rate steady. I agree with that decision, but 344 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 6: it is it's like totally pointless that I agree with it. 345 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,239 Speaker 6: I want to hear what the FED chair thinks about it, 346 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,439 Speaker 6: what the committee thinks about it. Why was that the 347 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 6: right decision? We know from the summary of economic projections 348 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 6: that many of them think it's going to be appropriate 349 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 6: to raise rates later. Many of them don't think it 350 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 6: will be like, tell me about why you decided to 351 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 6: do what you did today. It's communications also about accountability, 352 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 6: understanding who these people are that are making these big decisions. 353 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 6: Don't They don't have a crystal ball, but I really 354 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 6: do expect them to explain what they're doing right now 355 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 6: and show their work. 356 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 5: Is it potentially that Kevin Morris views as a slippery 357 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 5: slope to then be an individual that's up there on 358 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 5: the podium giving forward guidance which he doesn't agree with. 359 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 6: Again, I don't, you know, don't tell me about the future, 360 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 6: but I feel like there's some hiding behind the dargon. 361 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 6: And I will say, first press conference right like this, 362 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 6: you know, unevenness out of the gate, totally understandable. But 363 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 6: I do think there's room for adjustment. And if you 364 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 6: just want to talk about the decision that was made today, fine, 365 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 6: but do talk about that. And yes, I think it's important, 366 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,680 Speaker 6: you know, the slippery slope, okay, fine, but the service 367 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 6: of accountability is important and we do need to I think, 368 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 6: have some insights onto the discussions that they're having and 369 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 6: how they're weighing the data and what they're thinking about, 370 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 6: because honestly, right now, monetary policy is tough, right, so 371 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,880 Speaker 6: we should have some insights into the debate that they're 372 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 6: having about those policies we did. 373 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 3: We're going to get more information about how they plan 374 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:11,560 Speaker 3: to communicate going forward. What's the potential consequence of this 375 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 3: approach in markets? 376 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: Is it more volatility? 377 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 3: Is it just more uncertainty expressed in other ways? How 378 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 3: do you filter this into being potentially pernicious in a 379 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 3: way that maybe people don't understand. 380 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 6: Markets are going to fill in the blanks, right, They're 381 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 6: going to try to come up with some views. That's 382 00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 6: going to mean we're going to have more uncertainty about 383 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 6: what the Federal Reserve is going to do, which is 384 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 6: going to lead to potentially more volatility and interest rates 385 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 6: and investors are going to want to be compensated for 386 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 6: that uncertainty, right, So it does come at a cost, 387 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 6: and so you know, there's no free lunch here in 388 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 6: terms of how the Fed interacts with markets. And you know, 389 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:56,239 Speaker 6: I just we had a FED long ago that liked 390 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 6: to surprise markets and didn't give a lot of information 391 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 6: and the recent regime may not be perfect, but we 392 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 6: moved away from that. The FED surprising markets for a 393 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 6: lot of good reasons, and I think backtracking into that 394 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:15,160 Speaker 6: is could cause a lot of problems down the road. 395 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 3: We did learn something pretty crucial and this added to 396 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 3: the hawkish message that the market took from the statement 397 00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 3: and frankly the statement of economic projections in particular, which 398 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 3: is that nine of the eighteen members of the FBC 399 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 3: saw the next move as a hike later this year. 400 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 3: That's new and that's significant. How do you interpret that? 401 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 3: Do you think that that's the appropriate stance? 402 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 1: Right? 403 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 6: And what those individuals are saying is not necessarily expect hikes, 404 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 6: but they think that's appropriate. That is going to be 405 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 6: necessary to get us back to price stability. That's a 406 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 6: really important statement. Again, I think we here speeches will 407 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,440 Speaker 6: get this fleshed out with individuals thinking. But they also 408 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 6: said in the statement that you know a big part 409 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 6: of what's happening with inflation are supply shocks related to energy. 410 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 6: The textbook is or in energy supply shocks, the FED 411 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 6: should look through it. The FED shouldn't be raising rates 412 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 6: into that. So it's telling you something to have a 413 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 6: group of FED officials say, you know what, we've had 414 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 6: enough of these supply shocks. It's spread out over time. 415 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 6: We need to be raising rates to rain this. And 416 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 6: even if it goes against you know, the textbook response 417 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 6: to one supply shock individually, that is a big shift 418 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 6: in monitor policy. And it was a very divided committee. 419 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 6: You had the other half not going down that route. 420 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 6: So there's a lot going on in the committee in 421 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 6: these debates, and you know, it would be nice to 422 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 6: understand a little bit more about what what the exact 423 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 6: debates are. The dots are hard to read from the outside. 424 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 5: Speaking of the SEP though, And I know you think 425 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 5: it was a mistake for Warsh not to participate. Do 426 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 5: you think it's a signal that potentially the dot plock 427 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 5: go away one day? 428 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 1: Oh? 429 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,720 Speaker 6: It could, but the you know you need I think 430 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,840 Speaker 6: the tool, the communication is important. There may be a 431 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 6: better way to do it, you know, I think it's 432 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 6: it's very helpful to get a sense of, you know, 433 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 6: how how candy members react to data, how they think 434 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 6: about weighing inflation or unemployment. Maybe the dot plot is 435 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 6: not the best way to do this. I think the 436 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,239 Speaker 6: committee in their Framework review. We're clear there are some 437 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,960 Speaker 6: flaws with it, but nobody had a better idea. I 438 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 6: think that's the thing is that, you know, you just 439 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 6: deleting information. Deleting tools is not going to be very satisfying. 440 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 6: Improving them is going to be awesome. So if Kevin 441 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 6: Oworsh can lead to real improvements, I think that'd be 442 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 6: something to be excited about. But that's going to take time, 443 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 6: and this committee has really thought hard about the issue. 444 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 6: It's not simple to answer these questions. But we'll see 445 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 6: where the task force and then the Committee how they 446 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 6: weigh the ideas that the task force come up with. 447 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 3: Claudia, do you think that Jerome Powell will stay on 448 00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 3: for longer due to some of the scope of changes 449 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 3: that are currently underway? 450 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 6: So I take Jerome Powell at his word that he is, 451 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 6: you know, his decision to stay on is very much 452 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 6: tied with these concerns about independence, concerns about the building, 453 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 6: the review of the building renovation, and so when he 454 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 6: feels like, you know, those issues have been resolved to 455 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 6: his satisfaction, then I would expect him to go. I 456 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 6: didn't see anything in this is like a protest vote 457 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,679 Speaker 6: of Kevin worsh I mean, it sounded like everyone on 458 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 6: the committee is really trying to set the new chair 459 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 6: up for success. 460 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Sevendans podcast, bringing you the best 461 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, an gio politics. You can watch the 462 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 2: show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am 463 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,760 Speaker 2: to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, 464 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,879 Speaker 2: Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on 465 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.