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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Perrelt. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me across all of my socials.

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Speaker 1: And it did not end. It happened again. We went

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Speaker 1: one and.

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Speaker 2: Two again for a fourth consecutive day. This has just

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Speaker 2: been a brutal week. And it's I mean, I've had

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Speaker 2: weeks where I've gone all and four, I've lost four

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Speaker 2: units on one day. But this dribble and drip and

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma blowing a massive lead against Alabama. Crimson Tide were

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Speaker 2: down seventeen nothing and then they just eviscerated Brett Venables

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Speaker 2: team at home. I mean, Oklahoma, my goodness, gracious, that

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Speaker 2: was a coaching clinic. Bravo Alabama.

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Speaker 1: What a win.

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Speaker 2: Okasee lost the game outright, Like I was trying to

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Speaker 2: get a layup there. I was like, yeah, I'm cold,

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Speaker 2: let's just go for a layup play. Nope, Anthony Edwards

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Speaker 2: over four and a have rebounds. That was the bet

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Speaker 2: that cashed on the day. That was easy, that cashed

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Speaker 2: in the first half. So I guess when we're getting

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Speaker 2: them right, we're getting them right. But one in two

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Speaker 2: down one point two units again here, So what do

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Speaker 2: we do when we're ice cold? Well, I'm going to

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Speaker 2: do something kind of dumb, because these days are going

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Speaker 2: to be few and far between. If I lose, I lose.

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Speaker 2: And if you are losing money with me, okay, I

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Speaker 2: fade me.

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Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think it's a bad idea to

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Speaker 1: fade my plays.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but just understand, and it's always important for me

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Speaker 2: to reiterate this whenever we're talking about me losing that

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Speaker 2: if you are losing and it's money you cannot afford

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Speaker 2: to lose, it's Christmas, it's the holidays, don't bet. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Like I am compensated really well, and I'm taking care

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Speaker 2: of and I have multiple revenue streams, and like these plays,

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Speaker 2: I have bankroll management. Okay, three to five percent plays

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Speaker 2: on my bank roll. I can lose every bet I

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Speaker 2: make for the rest of twenty twenty five and nothing

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Speaker 2: changes in my life.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So this is you know.

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Speaker 2: I have never promised to make anybody rich. I've never

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Speaker 2: promised to do anything but hopefully have fun with you guys,

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Speaker 2: and be an entertainment outlet and to get you away

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Speaker 2: from everything else. In the world that is a distraction

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Speaker 2: or is a bummer or a downer. I just want

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Speaker 2: to hang out and watch sports and bet sports with

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Speaker 2: you guys. Okay, that's what That's what the whole crux

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Speaker 2: of this podcast is. So just understand, like this is

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Speaker 2: a tough time of the year for a lot of people. Okay,

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Speaker 2: if you are an indicted gambler or you're someone who

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Speaker 2: cannot stop gambling, please go to a meeting, Please make

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Speaker 2: a phone call in this podcast right now. I mean, granted,

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Speaker 2: you'll fade me and then I'm going to go and

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Speaker 2: you know, wipe the board today.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that's what will happen.

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Speaker 2: This is the problem with what happens with me when

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Speaker 2: it comes to betting or fading plays.

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Speaker 1: It's that you don't know when I'm going to.

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Speaker 2: Go hot, cold, cold, cold, and it turns on a dime, right,

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Speaker 2: So you got to bet what you think. If you

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Speaker 2: like my BET's great, you want to fade it, awesome,

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Speaker 2: you want to follow it, awesome. But just understand that

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Speaker 2: this time of the year, this can be a very

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Speaker 2: lonely time for a lot of people. It can be

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Speaker 2: a very difficult time. If you do have a problem

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Speaker 2: that if you don't have to bet, don't if it's

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Speaker 2: no longer fun.

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Speaker 1: It's a stupid line, but it's true.

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Speaker 2: Okay, when the fun stops, time to get some help.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: You should be able to watch a game without having

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Speaker 2: any money on it. You should be able to watch

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Speaker 2: a game and enjoy it for just the game itself.

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Speaker 2: And if you're losing, Okay, dial back. I always shrink

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Speaker 2: when I'm cold. I shrink my unit size always. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's like shrinkage jumping into a cold lake, like we shrink.

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Speaker 2: Okay when we're cold, you know, turtle, And I'm turtling

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Speaker 2: at the moment, except I'm firing on five games today.

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Speaker 2: Why because it's the college football playoffs, It's NFL football

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Speaker 2: on Saturday. If I go oh and five, I go

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Speaker 2: oh and five, you know we're already down for the week.

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Speaker 2: Let's just fire. Let's have some fun. I got five bets,

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Speaker 2: two NFL plays, three college football plays. It's a huge

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Speaker 2: football Saturday. This is awesome. If you have a smoker,

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Speaker 2: if you have a grill, like you got to enjoy this. Okay,

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Speaker 2: we're not gonna have this again. Really, we're not gonna

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Speaker 2: have this again. For a long time, like these days

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Speaker 2: are fleeting. These days are going to be gone very soon,

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna be left with like NBA and NHL

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Speaker 2: sports on Saturday, and that's it. And I love betting

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Speaker 2: those sports. But it's not the same, not the same

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Speaker 2: as football. Five football games today that all have significance

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Speaker 2: consequences in big meetings, like this is a big day,

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Speaker 2: it's a great day. So I'm firing in all five games.

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Speaker 2: If I miss on all five plays, so be it. Okay,

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Speaker 2: just so be it. If you want to find a

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Speaker 2: place to play. And by the way, hard Rock they've had,

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Speaker 2: they've got some good prices today if you have hard

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Speaker 2: rock in your state, I really would go take advantage

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Speaker 2: of this offer with hard Rock Bet. I was very

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Speaker 2: impressed with the numbers that hard Rock Bet had for

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Speaker 2: my plays, and Vegas had very similar plays, but I

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Speaker 2: was impressed with the numbers that hard Rock had to

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Speaker 2: go ahead and bet. So there's some very tasty numbers

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Speaker 2: that are lurking around out there right now at hard

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Speaker 2: Let's talk, and let's start with the NFL, and we'll

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Speaker 2: get the football. Let's start with Philadelphia and Washington. This

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Speaker 2: number hit seven, and I went, okay, I'm wrong. Take

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Speaker 2: the Commanders. I was wondering how much buy in people

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Speaker 2: were going to give to the Eagles, and would we

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Speaker 2: get to seven. And we're at seven. And I'm actually

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Speaker 2: pretty surprised that we are at seven for this game,

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Speaker 2: simply because well, what the Eagles did last week against

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Speaker 2: the Raiders where they won thirty one nothing. However, Jalen Hurts,

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Speaker 2: the numbers are pretty bad for Jalen Hurts. On the

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Speaker 2: road against the NFC East, he is one in five ats.

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Speaker 2: In fact, Jalen Hurts has just been brutal in the

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Speaker 2: month of December thirteen eighteen and one against the spread.

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Speaker 2: In the month of December, he is five to seven

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Speaker 2: and one over all against the NFC East the Commanders. Sorry,

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Speaker 2: the Eagles were double digit favorites against the Raiders, and

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Speaker 2: now they're laying points on the road against a divisional

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Speaker 2: opponent in the Commanders. Under Jalen Hurts, the Eagles are

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Speaker 2: just three and six ats the week following a double

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Speaker 2: digit favorite line. Look, Dan Quinn has been pretty good

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Speaker 2: as a home dog. Marcus Barriota is a serviceable quarterback,

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Speaker 2: and this Eagles team going on the road, this you're

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Speaker 2: gonna get the best effort out of the Commanders. Is

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Speaker 2: a standalone game. I couldn't believe we got seven. I

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Speaker 2: think sevens is the right number. I think there's a

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Speaker 2: good shot that the Eagles win the game, but they

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Speaker 2: win the game by four, by five, seven or more.

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Speaker 2: We're talking about a two score game. The Eagles a

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Speaker 2: gonna win this game. I mean, even if they're up

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. This feels like it's a backdoor

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Speaker 2: situation where the Commanders somehow find a way to cover.

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Speaker 2: I don't love the Commanders here, but I just don't

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Speaker 2: like Philadelphia. They'll win the game. Okay, Philly will win.

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Speaker 2: It's a hat and T shirt game. They're gonna win

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Speaker 2: the division, They're gonna win the nfcas today by beating

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Speaker 2: the Commanders. I just think you take the points seven.

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Speaker 2: Once it hits seven, it changed my opinion. I initially

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Speaker 2: was gonna come in and take and lay the six

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Speaker 2: and a half with the Eagles, but I think there's

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Speaker 2: too much groupthink going on.

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Speaker 1: I'm coming in here.

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Speaker 2: Give me the give me the seven Commanders plus seven

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Speaker 2: for one point one units. Second game, we go to

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Speaker 2: the Bears hosting the Packers. The Bears offense, they are

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Speaker 2: a eleven and three to the team total over this year.

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Speaker 2: Their team total is set at twenty three and a half.

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Speaker 2: That's tied for the best mark in the NFL with

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys and the Jaguars. Ben Johnson's been amazing. Offense

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Speaker 2: has been unreal. Three hundred and sixty five points through

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Speaker 2: fourteen games, only ten turnovers. It's the most points with

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Speaker 2: the fewest turnovers through fourteen games in franchise history. The

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Speaker 2: Bears were one bad throw by Caleb Williams in the

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter of the first matchup from tying that game

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Speaker 2: at Lambeau and now here comes the Packers with a

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Speaker 2: banged up Josh Jacobs, a banged up Christian Watsons and Watson,

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Speaker 2: and a Micah Parsons injury that will keep him out

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Speaker 2: for the rest of the year. These are big injuries.

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Speaker 2: Big injuries on offense, big injuries on defense. You can't

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Speaker 2: just gloss it over and just be like it's not

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Speaker 2: that big of a deal. While I like the team

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Speaker 2: total to go over, there is a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a concern with weather.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It didn't matter on Thursday, but the same wind that

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Speaker 2: was in Seattle on Thursday is now in Chicago today.

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Speaker 2: The win, though, will be the reverse of the game

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Speaker 2: in Seattle. In Seattle, the pregame was the windiest, then

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Speaker 2: the first quarter, second quarter, and by the third and

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Speaker 2: the fourth quarter the wind was gone and it was

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Speaker 2: open season and the scoreboard erupted and the game flew over.

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Speaker 1: It's the opposite.

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Speaker 2: The first half should be pretty calm, not a big deal,

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Speaker 2: but as the game progresses, the wind is projected to

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Speaker 2: get worse and worse and worse, and it could really

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Speaker 2: limit scoring in this game. In the fourth quarter at

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Speaker 2: home this year, the Bears who are ten and four overall,

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Speaker 2: scored thirty one points against the Cowboys, twenty six points

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Speaker 2: against the Saints, twenty four points against the Giants, thirty

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Speaker 2: one points against the Steelers, and thirty one points up

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Speaker 2: against the Browns. They did lose the first game of

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Speaker 2: the year at home, scoring twenty four points twenty seven

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Speaker 2: to twenty five. I think the Bears team total over

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Speaker 2: twenty three and a half is a really good look.

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Speaker 2: But in case I'm wrong about that, I'm not jumping

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Speaker 2: up and down about betting totals right now. I'm just

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Speaker 2: a little bit on the gunshine nature with totals. I

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Speaker 2: think the Bears win the game. It's a night game

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Speaker 2: at Lambeau, Sorry, night game at Soldier Field. The Bears

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Speaker 2: offensive line's been so good. It's just been so good.

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Speaker 2: They've run the ball so effectively, and I think they

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Speaker 2: even it up here. They're laying one and a half points.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a safer play here. Even though the

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Speaker 2: Bears have been historically bad against the Packers, they're one

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Speaker 2: in twelve straight up. In their last thirteen meetings, they're

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Speaker 2: two and eleven ats. In those thirteen meetings, the Bears

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Speaker 2: have only been favored to beat the Packers four times

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Speaker 2: in total in their last thirty five meetings.

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Speaker 1: That's amazing.

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Speaker 2: And the Bears have gone twelve and twenty eight ats

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00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:59,079
Speaker 2: against the Packers in those games. It's been a great

219
00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,080
Speaker 2: thing to bet the Packers because they have owned the Bears.

220
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Speaker 2: I just think this at night Soldier Field Division game,

221
00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,160
Speaker 2: this is the time for Caleb Williams, this is the

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00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,839
Speaker 2: time for this offense. And their defense played pretty good

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Speaker 2: last week against the Browns. I know it was the Browns.

224
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Speaker 2: Just teams coming off of a game against Denver or

225
00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,200
Speaker 2: zero in six ats this season. Packers coming off of

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Speaker 2: a loss to Denver. Tough loss to Denver, bad injuries

227
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,280
Speaker 2: in that game on the road, divisional game, back to

228
00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,400
Speaker 2: back road trips not great. Ben Johnson's eight to five

229
00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,559
Speaker 2: and one ats as the head coach of the Bears,

230
00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:37,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna back Ben Johnson here, will go ahead. I

231
00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,320
Speaker 2: like team total, but I think Ben Johnson and the

232
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Speaker 2: Bears minus one and a half here today up against

233
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Speaker 2: the Packers again. I think the under for the Commanders

234
00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,960
Speaker 2: Eagles is a decent play. I think the team's total

235
00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,360
Speaker 2: over for the Bears decent play. But I'm a little

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Speaker 2: gunshy on the totals at the moment, So I'm going

237
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,160
Speaker 2: to bet sides Commanders plus seven, Bears minus one and

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Speaker 2: a half to.

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Speaker 1: The college football playoffs. We go.

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Speaker 2: Only a couple books right now sit at two and

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00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 2: a half for Texas A and M. Hard Rock bet

242
00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 2: is one of them that is sitting there at two

243
00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:09,480
Speaker 2: and a half. Other books here in Vegas as well,

244
00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 2: sitting at two and a half. Massive money, massive amounts

245
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:17,280
Speaker 2: of money on Miami. Very surprised. I'm not gonna lie,

246
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,440
Speaker 2: I'm pretty surprised at the amount of money coming in

247
00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:22,800
Speaker 2: on Miami because of the way that home teams. I mean,

248
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Speaker 2: Bama won last night on the road. That was the

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Speaker 2: first road team to win in the first round of

250
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,760
Speaker 2: the playoffs. We hadn't seen that, and they were down

251
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,160
Speaker 2: seventeen nothing, they were getting boat raced, and then everything changed.

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Speaker 1: So now here we go with A and M at home.

253
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Speaker 2: It's pretty much fifty to fifty on both the side

254
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:41,600
Speaker 2: and the total. Like there's equal money on both sides.

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00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 2: People like the over, people like the under. It's forty

256
00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,200
Speaker 2: eight and a half from a total perspective. A and

257
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,480
Speaker 2: M minus two and a half at hard Rock bet

258
00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,360
Speaker 2: other books here in Vegas two and a half, two

259
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 2: and a half now text A and M having an

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00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,079
Speaker 2: opportunity to play at home. You guys know how I

261
00:13:59,080 --> 00:14:00,319
Speaker 2: feel about A and M. I bet and win the

262
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:02,760
Speaker 2: whole thing last night. I like A and M. But

263
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,280
Speaker 2: their numbers at home have not been great. Okay, they're

264
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,000
Speaker 2: two and five ats at home. They've lost three games

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00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 2: in a row against the spread. They didn't cover against Texas,

266
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 2: didn't cover against Stanford, didn't cover against South Carolina, and

267
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,040
Speaker 2: they won two of those games. But they didn't cover.

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00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 2: They did win and cover against Missouri, they won and

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00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 2: cover against LSU. They won and covered against Florida, they

270
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:28,520
Speaker 2: won uncovered against Mississippi State. The level of competition that

271
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 2: A and M has played this year Notre Dame, Auburn, LSU, Missouri.

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00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:39,200
Speaker 2: You know Texas, Miami played Notre Dame in Week one

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Speaker 2: and then they didn't play anybody else.

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Speaker 1: I guess, well, they played Florida.

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00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,880
Speaker 2: I guess like you say, Florida, and they beat Florida

276
00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 2: at home by nineteen. But okay, they won by nineteen.

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00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 2: A and M won by seventeen. Both teams were at home.

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00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 2: That's a wash, right, Other than that. I mean, they

279
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,760
Speaker 2: played Louisville at home, they lost the game. I was

280
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,360
Speaker 2: on Louisville for that game. They played SMU on the road,

281
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,840
Speaker 2: lay eight and a half, they lost by six. That

282
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,480
Speaker 2: was the last game that they lost. Now on the road,

283
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,240
Speaker 2: Miami's two and two. But miamily played four games away

284
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Speaker 2: from home all year. They played at Pitt one by thirty, one,

285
00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:17,920
Speaker 2: at VA Tech one by seventeen.

286
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,440
Speaker 1: Come on, we're not really impressed by that.

287
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,160
Speaker 2: They played at SMU they lost by six, and they

288
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,600
Speaker 2: played at Florida State laying three and a half and

289
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 2: they won by six. Okay, so you know it's ok

290
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:31,800
Speaker 2: two and two. They didn't cover against VA Tech. They

291
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,760
Speaker 2: were laying seventeen and a half against VA Tech and

292
00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,640
Speaker 2: they won by seventeen. So two and two mark away

293
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:38,720
Speaker 2: from home. Only four games away from home, and now

294
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 2: you're going to College Station Texas in the SEC in

295
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:47,240
Speaker 2: the South to play a really tough and speedy team for.

296
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Speaker 1: A and m at two and a half. I'm just

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00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 1: very surprised.

298
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 2: I think people think that Mario Crysto Baal is going

299
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 2: to run the football and Carson Beck because he played

300
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: really well down the stretch that that's going to translate

301
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Speaker 2: here up against an SEC team. Maybe this is my

302
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,400
Speaker 2: SEC buias showing and I'm just way too in on

303
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:04,960
Speaker 2: A and M. And I'm going to lose two bets

304
00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,560
Speaker 2: on one game. I'm going to lay the two and

305
00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 2: a half and I got the future on them. Maybe

306
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,280
Speaker 2: I lose two units in one play, which is very possible,

307
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna go ahead and take A and M.

308
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 2: Give me text A and M minus two and a

309
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: half for one point one units. Now, have you guys

310
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 2: gone and checked out the prop betcheat sheet? If you

311
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 2: want to play props today for the NBA or for

312
00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 2: the NHL or anything else, you can do that. The

313
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,720
Speaker 2: NFL games as well. You can do that, and we

314
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 2: actually would give you Betting Pros Premium. You can claim

315
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,880
Speaker 2: your six month free upgrade simply by going to a

316
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,720
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318
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,960
Speaker 2: click on a link, make a deposit, make a wager,

319
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320
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321
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Speaker 2: in check it out at bettingpros dot com Slash Premium.

322
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 2: Next two games involve two teams that people think don't

323
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:12,200
Speaker 2: belong in the college football playoffs. Tulane in JMU talk

324
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 2: about tu Lane. They're losing their coach. Okay, you know

325
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 2: the JMU is too, I mean, but both these schoolers

326
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:24,400
Speaker 2: are losing their coaches. But Tulane comes in here with

327
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:30,600
Speaker 2: an attitude. Tulane comes in with a moxie that I

328
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,720
Speaker 2: really liked. I've been on this two lane team most

329
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 2: of the year, and I faded them against Memphis and

330
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Speaker 2: it burned me. I got back on the bandwagon against

331
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Speaker 2: North Texas and they won the game by thirteen points

332
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Speaker 2: as one point dogs.

333
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 1: I like the quarterback, I like the offense.

334
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 2: They played Ole Miss and got beat by thirty five points.

335
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 2: They've played in this building. They did not have any

336
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 2: game film on ole Miss. Now they have game film

337
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,879
Speaker 2: on ole Miss, and Ole Miss is without Lane Kiffin.

338
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 2: Now I know Charlie Weis Junior is the offensive coordinator

339
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 2: and he's sticking around to there's some continuity there with

340
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:09,840
Speaker 2: ole Miss. But these kids have been through a lot,

341
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 2: and now we're laying seventeen and a half points for

342
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: ole Miss. I know they won my thirty five. I

343
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 2: understand that. I know everyone's gonna run to that and go,

344
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:19,959
Speaker 2: that's why it's gonna be out. They're gonna kill him.

345
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 2: I just don't think they get killed. I think Two

346
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:26,959
Speaker 2: Lanes got a shot to hang around here. It's a

347
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,480
Speaker 2: playoff game, right, It's a playoff game without your coach.

348
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,159
Speaker 2: If this game is tight late, you don't think Ole

349
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 2: Miss is gonna start to get nervous that they're gonna

350
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:39,040
Speaker 2: be embarrassed by losing to a team that they have

351
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 2: no business losing to. They killed these guys by thirty

352
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 2: five points earlier in the year.

353
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Speaker 1: They should do the exact same thing.

354
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 2: I just think the Green Wave have gotten much better

355
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,280
Speaker 2: since that first matchup against ole Miss. And I don't

356
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,640
Speaker 2: know if ole Miss has gotten much better given what's

357
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 2: going on with Lane Kiffin and how everything else is

358
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 2: going wrong, how many players are going to LSU, and

359
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 2: how many coaches are going to LSU. I think this

360
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:09,439
Speaker 2: could be a team in the Rebels that might be

361
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 2: distracted in this game, that may not be focused as

362
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,280
Speaker 2: they should be. And Two Lanes got a really good coach,

363
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,880
Speaker 2: they got a really good quarterback, and I think they

364
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 2: could put a scare into ole Miss. I've been saying

365
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,679
Speaker 2: it all week. I gotta put my money where my

366
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 2: mouth is. I've been talking about it all week.

367
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 1: I gotta lay it.

368
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,320
Speaker 2: I gotta take it rather two lane plus seventeen and

369
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,919
Speaker 2: a half on the road at ole Miss. Yes, that

370
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:35,640
Speaker 2: would probably mean they need to make it a game

371
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter. Maybe they backdoor it, maybe they

372
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: get a late touchdown to cover. But I just think

373
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,280
Speaker 2: in a playoff game, seventeen and a half's a lot

374
00:19:43,280 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 2: of points. Give me two lane plus seventeen and a half,

375
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,080
Speaker 2: and finally we go to Oregon in JMU. I thought

376
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 2: about laying the twenty and a half points. It's now

377
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 2: down to twenty and a half. I was like, let's

378
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: lay the twenty and a half with Oregon. I chose

379
00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 2: not to because there's enough people that I respect, people

380
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,400
Speaker 2: whose opinion I respect, who are all over JMU. They

381
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 2: think JMU is going to play a grinder of a

382
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 2: football game. They're gonna run the ball, they're gonna shorten

383
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: the clock, and they're not gonna let Oregon go and

384
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 2: do typical Oregon things. I think Oregon in their offensive line,

385
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 2: I know JMU hangs their hat on their defensive line.

386
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 2: I know people are talking about how good jmu's metrics

387
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 2: are when it comes to stopping the run, But my

388
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:30,119
Speaker 2: problem with all this is who they.

389
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 1: Stopped the run against.

390
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 2: Like we're just we're not talking about the same level

391
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: of competition that Oregon faced this year. So jmu's mark,

392
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 2: you know, their record for rushing, averaging two point five

393
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 2: yards per rush, doesn't really impress me. Two point five

394
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 2: yards rush. Oregon runs the ball at a five point

395
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 2: seven yard clip. If Oregon breaks off a bunch of

396
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 2: long runs, this game is over. Okay, it is over.

397
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,040
Speaker 2: And what do we know about Oregon? The thing we

398
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: know about Oregon is that they don't stop scoring. Okay,

399
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 2: Oregon scored, you know, in terms of what they've done

400
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: this year against Michael inferior competition, Oregon against Montana State

401
00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 2: fifty nine, Oklahoma State sixty nine, Rutcurse fifty six, Minnesota

402
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 2: forty two, USC forty two. Okay, they score. They scored

403
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: forty one against Oregon State. They scored thirty against Penn

404
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: State on the road in Happy Valley. These guys can

405
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 2: score at a blink. They can score JMU Okay. They

406
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 2: beat Troy thirty one fourteen. They beat Coastal fifty nine

407
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 2: to ten. They beat app State fifty eight ten. Okay,

408
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,399
Speaker 2: I'm not saying those teams are are complete cupcakes. They're not,

409
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 2: but they're not you know, Penn State on the road,

410
00:21:55,880 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 2: Iowa on the road, USC and Minnesota at home, like

411
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 2: this is not Oregon level of competition is a lot

412
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 2: more difficult.

413
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: They lost to Indie.

414
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: I mean, Oregon played in Indiana at home, lost thirty to twenty. Okay,

415
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 2: number one team in the country, number one seed in

416
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 2: this tournament. So I think the best way to approach

417
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 2: this is by going to a team total situation.

418
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 1: For Oregon.

419
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 2: The total is forty five and a half. The team

420
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: total for Oregon is thirty three and a half. I

421
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: think Oregon scores thirty five points. Okay, it's do I

422
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 2: think they score five touchdowns?

423
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: I do. I think they score.

424
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 2: Five touchdowns, even against the JMU defense that on paper

425
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: have had a really good season. I just don't think

426
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 2: the numbers are going to play out like people think

427
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: with JMU, and JMU might be able to move with football,

428
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 2: I mean jmu's offense. The one thing I'll give you

429
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 2: is a JMUS offense scored thirty six point seven points

430
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 2: per game this year. That was top ten in the country.

431
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: They can run the ball five point five yards per

432
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: rush that's tenth best in the country. Eight point one

433
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 2: yards per pass play that's thirty second best in the country.

434
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,360
Speaker 2: I like jmu's offense more than anything, and I need

435
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 2: JMU to score twenty points. If I can get twenty

436
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 2: points out of JMU, think there's a real good shot

437
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 2: that we're getting thirty five forty points here out of Oregon.

438
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 2: We know that Organ's not stopping. Like I said, you

439
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 2: can bet the over. If you want to bet the

440
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: over in the game, go right ahead. I think it's

441
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: probably a pretty decent play, but I'm concerned about JMUS

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00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 2: ability to score against Oregon's defense on the road at Oregon,

443
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: they might not be able to do anything against the

444
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 2: team speed for Oregon. I think the best play you

445
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 2: can lay the twenty and a half if you want.

446
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 2: That's a good play. But rather than sweating out a

447
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 2: back door, let's just take team total. I'm gonna go

448
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 2: Oregon team total over thirty three and a half for

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00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: minus one to ten. All right, So here are the

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00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 2: five plays for today on a Saturday, Commanders plus seven,

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00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 2: Bears minus one and a half, A and m minus

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00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 2: two and a half, two Lane plus seven, teen and

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00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 2: a half and Oregon team total over thirty three and

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00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 2: a half. That is a full day of football viewing

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Speaker 2: for us coming up here for today. My name is

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Speaker 2: Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me across all of

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00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 2: my socials at sports Talk Matt every morning wherever you

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Speaker 2: guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice