1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. We 5 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: get lucky. And what we mean is we have to 6 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:34,279 Speaker 1: get to Friday of the vote county. All eyes will 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: be on Pennsylvania, after Wisconsin, after Nevada, after Michigan, and 8 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: we get further lucky because I knew President Trump would 9 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: win when I saw the map of Bucks County and 10 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,239 Speaker 1: Montgomery County four years ago. Mark Schweiker joins us. He 11 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: is from Bucks County, he has provided leadership in Montgomery County, 12 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: and he's a former governor of Pennsylvania. Now with rend Matrix, Governor, 13 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: wonderful to have you with us. A warning. You have 14 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: observed the dynamics of a Bucks in Montgomery County two 15 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: thousand and twenty. Is it the same as two thousand sixteen. 16 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 1: I've got to say four years later there was this 17 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 1: discernible drop among and we we've all heard this, this 18 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 1: handicapping among suburban women in Bucks, a Montgomery County Uh yet, Uh. 19 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 1: You know, Donald Trump, as we know, he's a fierce 20 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: campaigner and made up for that, for that reduction in 21 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: the suburban counties across Pennsylvania, because I believe Democratic women, 22 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: uh in many, many rural hustings, many rural locations went 23 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump to make up for that. But now, 24 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: as we've already observed, it moves from the you know, 25 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: the the voting machines to a judicial courtroom. You and 26 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: Tom Ridge went up against Ed Rundell, and of course 27 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 1: that's the power of politics of Philadelphia. There's Pittsburgh as well. 28 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: Are we going to see the same polar rised Biden's 29 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: support in Philadelphia in Pittsburgh that we observe in Detroit 30 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: and Milwaukee? My sense is, uh that the election platform 31 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: in Philadelphia is essentially a safe and valid one. Uh. 32 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: Yet that jurisdiction, and for that matter, every other county 33 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania has never been through this large influx of 34 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: writing ballots. So even with the best of intentions, they've 35 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: got to be monitored as far as the accuracy of 36 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: the vote. And I'm sure that both the Biden campaign 37 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: forces and the Trump campaign forces will be making moves 38 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: this morning immediately to monitor that that process, because as 39 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:53,679 Speaker 1: we see in Michigan or in Wisconsin, and particularly dramatically 40 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: so in Pennsylvania, large number of write in votes, writing ballots, 41 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:00,079 Speaker 1: it's gonna take a long time to to get to 42 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 1: a conclusion. So to me, uh, you know, that's got 43 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 1: to be monitored, and I think it's gonna be done safely. 44 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: The governor. Early voting a massive feature of this election 45 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 1: really picking up, and I wonder it's not something that's 46 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: going to go away anytime soon. Is there a better 47 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: way of accounting for these votes as they come through, 48 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: counting them in a more efficient way, or do we 49 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 1: just have to get used to waiting for the elections 50 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: that come in four years, eight years, twelve. Yeah, I 51 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: think that it can be made more efficient. Uh, you know, 52 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: one county in particular in Pennsylvania, and there are you know, 53 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: you know the geographic makeup rural, suburban Irvan counties. The 54 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: technology is they're regardless of where you are. Some counties 55 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: have managed to for example, uh, you know, given the 56 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 1: emphasis on security and opening two envelopes, but there there 57 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 1: is machinery for quickly opening envelopes without jeopardizing ballot security. 58 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: So I think one by one by one, these counties 59 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: will adopt that and it will come more quickly for sure. Yeah, 60 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: I know that Tom Keane's favorite story of the day 61 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: was Green Bay running out of ink and having to 62 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: pause some of the ballet counting talking about old technology Governor. 63 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: About twenty minutes ago, we got data on the US 64 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: economy showing the US added fewer jobs than expected in October. 65 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: This was not something people were focused on, and yet 66 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: it is the issue. There needs to be a recovery 67 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: from the steepest recession, if the shortest since the Great Depression. 68 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,800 Speaker 1: Just can you speak about what's needed and how likely 69 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: we could get the support needed with a split government 70 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: with say a Republican Senate and a potential Democratic president. Well, 71 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,359 Speaker 1: process wise, Lisa, it's hard to see in the in 72 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: the immediate weeks to come. Uh, you know that the 73 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: coming together of Democratic and Republican leadership in Washington, d C. 74 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: You know, I hope I'm wrong, But ultimately, and this 75 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: is the upshot of my reaction is is that I 76 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: think we do have the consensus around a broad, meaningful 77 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: stimulus package. Um, so you know, the sooner they get 78 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: to that, I think we really kick off the surge 79 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: and the uptick in the American economy. I do think 80 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 1: we get you know, the jobs returning and and the paychecks. 81 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 1: So uh, it's hard to kind of ponder and assess 82 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: that possibility on this Wednesday morning here on the East 83 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: Coast as we go into this judicial battle over ballots 84 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: and so on. But and I'll add this, I think 85 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: I'd like to see uh an emphasis on you know, 86 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: what they call the the next normal, in the next normal, 87 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 1: whenever that might unfold, and I hope it's soon. To 88 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: your question is that there'd be a heavy emphasis on workforce, 89 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: train and retraining, UH and reskilling opportunities. We're going to 90 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: need that that heavy emphasis across the country and in 91 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: each state, regardless of who takes the oath on January twenty, 92 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: just a few weeks from now, governor, thank you so much, 93 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it, Mark Schweiker, were this a former Pennsylvania governor. 94 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 1: Right now, Christopher Harvey joins. He is with Wells Fargo 95 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: and head of equity Strategy with a real focus on 96 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: disciplined portfolios. Christopher, how do you be disciplined with an 97 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: election chaos? What is the to do? Today for our 98 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: listeners on radio and TV to be disciplined given the 99 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: angst that's out there. So let me start with this. 100 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: I think Kevin and John had hit it right, and 101 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,920 Speaker 1: I think what I want to play upon is the Senate. 102 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: To us, yes, the Presidency is important, but we think 103 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: that this Senate is even more important. That's where fiscal 104 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 1: state mellist comes into play. That's where taxes come into play, 105 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 1: and if if the GOP is going to control it, 106 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: what we have to think about, what we have to 107 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 1: believe is any sort of stimulus is going to be 108 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: rather skinny, and taxes in all likelihoods are not going 109 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,239 Speaker 1: to change. And so when we think about the Kappa markets, 110 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: when we think about what's going to go forward, we 111 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: could see a bit of a pullback because one this 112 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: was unexpected and to the stimulus that we thought we 113 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: were going to get will probably much less and much later. 114 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: But longer term, we're going to see gridlock, and we 115 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: think gridlock is good. We're not going to see higher taxes. 116 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: But more importantly, the underlying fundamentals of the economy are 117 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: quite good. We have very easy first half cops for 118 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 1: many companies. We have low funding costs, but more importantly, 119 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: large sections of the U S consumer isn't very good shape, 120 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 1: and that's something we don't typically see post recession. Or 121 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: people want to spend, that can spend, they want to spend. 122 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: Typically it's a much more depressed attitude and mentality. It's 123 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: more of a cash and can good type mentality or 124 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 1: bunker mentality, and that should not be underappreciated. Chris. A 125 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: lot of people were coming into this saying that the 126 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: outcome that we are now looking at the potential for 127 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: a Senate that is republican and undetermined presidency would be 128 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: negative for the reflation trade, would ultimately be negative for 129 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: risk assets. Today we're not seeing that. Does it at 130 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: least challenge the theory of the rotation into say financials, 131 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: since we're seeing a flattening yield curve and some of 132 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: these other cyclicals. Well a couple of things there. So 133 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: last time I looked at futures, small cap futures were 134 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: down or in the negative, and you saw NASA futures up. 135 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: As you pointed out before, um, if we look at 136 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: bond yields in the shape of the yield curve, rates 137 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: have come down the curve as flatten. That's not great 138 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 1: for financials. What we are seeing the knee jerk reaction 139 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 1: is somewhat positive or relatively positive for technology. The reinflation 140 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 1: trade does have to take a step back, and perhaps 141 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: we'll see if fin as some air come out of 142 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: the financials, some airic amount of small caps. But longer term, 143 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: the underlying fundamentals for the economy and for many stocks 144 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:09,199 Speaker 1: is still quite good. Chris Bullish, no matter what the 145 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 1: outcome is. Chris Holley Wilds five securities had of equity strategy. 146 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco's with Bianco Research, He writes a hugely coveted 147 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: research not synthesizing markets into our political moment, and he 148 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: joins us this morning, Jim, there's just so many themes 149 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: going on here. So let me ask you what I 150 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 1: just alluded to on the view forward for Congress, how 151 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: do you invest forward to two thousand twenty two. That's 152 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: gonna be tough, especially if you think that Washington is 153 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 1: going to be as important as everybody thinks, because there's 154 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,719 Speaker 1: no clarity yet coming out of Washington. But if you 155 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: put that aside, you are left with a couple of 156 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: troubling issues that are out there there's gonna be no 157 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus that should slow the economy. Remember the virus 158 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: that you to be important. Yesterday was another record day 159 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: for cases in Europe and almost in the United States, 160 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 1: one of the two highest days that we've ever had. 161 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: That pretends a economy that is going to continue to 162 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: struggle as we move forward from here. And that pretends 163 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: that without any kind of clarity from Congress, support for 164 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: the economy is not gonna come. It might come down 165 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: to the Federal Reserve that meets today and tomorrow. So Jim, 166 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: I'm looking right now at ten year treasury yields and 167 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: John Farro has done a great job of talking about 168 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: the swing it has. You've seen yields come in the 169 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: most at one point since April. Is this a trend 170 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: to bet on? Basically, the consensus was wrong heading into 171 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: this selection that you're actually going to see lower yields ahead. 172 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:45,319 Speaker 1: I think over the short term you're going to see 173 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: a correction in yields and they're gonna move lower. But 174 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 1: I'm still of the opinion that the March ninth low 175 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 1: of thirty three basis points in the tenure was the 176 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: end of the bullmarket for bonds. And what we're gonna 177 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: have is a correct a phase now, and that if 178 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,680 Speaker 1: you want to look out six or nine ones, I 179 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: know it's hard to look up past six or nine hours. 180 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: You're probably going to have much higher yields into the 181 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: summer of one on the back of a potential move 182 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: higher in inflation, not a big move higher information, but 183 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: I still think that's coming. What's great about this John 184 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: Farrell as if the uncle's only day trade in for 185 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: six or nine hours, he's a candidate to be on 186 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: the Real Yield. I've got a time arising in five 187 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: minutes right now. Jim Bianca was on Real Yield last week. 188 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: Tom't YouTube Jim. Yesterday I asked the following question, if 189 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 1: I could tell you the result four years ago, twenty 190 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 1: four hours ahead of time, would you have put on 191 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: the right trade? So many people wrote back and said no. 192 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 1: If I could have told you how things would develop 193 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: overnight into this morning, twenty four hours ago, you might 194 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: have had traceries bid. Would you have equities up fifty 195 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:55,599 Speaker 1: eight on SMP five hundred advances in one point seven No? 196 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: I would not. And you know, to be fair about 197 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: what's happening when equities is they were up two percent 198 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,719 Speaker 1: overnight and then gave it all back, and now they're 199 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: up two percent again. And don't forget that last week 200 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 1: we were down five point six percent, one of the 201 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 1: biggest weekly declines we've seen since the dark days of March. 202 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: So there's probably a little bit of an oversould bounce 203 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: going on in equities. But I'm not convinced that even 204 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 1: with the strong bid today, they're gonna reverse all of 205 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: last week and they are ready to poison go higher. 206 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have a slug from here and 207 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: move sideways with a lot of volatility. Jimmis grit a 208 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: catch shop has no wise gets ahead from you. Jim Biancow, 209 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: that of Biancow Research. Right now, we are going to 210 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: rip up the script and we're gonna do this with 211 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: great respect for what John is observing in London of 212 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: continental Europe. Julie Norman was to be with us on 213 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: this election and on the politics of the moment, but 214 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,359 Speaker 1: she she is truly one of our experts on violence 215 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: and non violence in societies. She's really done an extraordinary 216 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: job over that over the years. On she is at 217 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: u CEL in London and John, I just think with 218 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 1: the terror attempts in Vienna that we've seen, and in 219 00:13:06,559 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: Niece twice now maybe three times, and Leah Leon the 220 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: other day. John, it's really important to address this for 221 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: our European audience. Well, Professor, let's just start with the 222 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: election itself, and then maybe Tom can move us over 223 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,280 Speaker 1: to Europe briefly. Professor, your reaction on the events of 224 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,079 Speaker 1: this morning, Well, you know, I don't think what we're 225 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,840 Speaker 1: seeing today is too much of a surprise. This is 226 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: certainly a scenario that we knew was very possible. We 227 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: knew that there probably would not or would likely not 228 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: be a firm decision on election night as we're used to. 229 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: So the fact that the race is taking longer, the 230 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 1: fact that we're seeing the procedural delays in terms of 231 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: counting the mail in ballot is something that was pretty expected. 232 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: Of course, it's a lot tighter than the bid end 233 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 1: campaign would hope. Um. I think the Trump campaign took 234 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: a lot of confidence from that initial boost of Florida. 235 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: But right now, like everyone, we're just waiting to see 236 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: what happened. Julie, what is so important here, with your 237 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: acclaimed expertise on terror, is the idea and the president 238 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 1: of course has spoken about this quite clearly. He's got 239 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 1: a very strong opinion about it. In America is well, 240 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: what does a European society or an American society do 241 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 1: about the threat of violence? What's the Norman prescription? Welcome. 242 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: I think that the threat of political violence is always present, 243 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: and of course we've witnessed that in Europe in the 244 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: last few weeks in the incidents in France and Austria 245 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: in particular, and we've heard a lot in the US 246 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: also about the risk of potential violence after the election 247 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: as well. However, I think it's really notable that, even 248 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: as polarized as the country is, election day went off 249 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: mostly keep belief. They were very few reported incidents of 250 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: aggression or of anything getting out of source at any 251 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: of the coins stations. And I think that afterwards too, 252 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: even though emotions will certainly be high, will certainly see 253 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 1: Americans as they always do in terms of the participation, demonstrating, protesting, 254 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: I don't see the country devolving into violence. And I 255 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: think that's largely because at the end of the day, 256 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: most Americans do have faith in our institution. They do 257 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 1: want to believe in the way that the system has 258 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: been working up until now in terms of keeping things 259 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: at least moving forward, even if moving forward somewhat somewhat 260 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: slowly in election like this, and I don't see people 261 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 1: panicking and the way that we've we've heard some of 262 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: the rhetheric suggesting Professor. Right now, where we stand, it 263 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: looks like the Senate will remain in Republican control, presidency 264 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 1: up for grabs, Biden currently leading when it comes just 265 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: to the electoral vote counts still a lot to go. 266 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 1: If it were beef, if it would be a former 267 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,360 Speaker 1: Vice president Joe Biden who as the president but a 268 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: Republican Senate, how would that affect foreign policy and terms 269 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: of protectionism in terms of tariffs and the like. Wellly so, 270 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: I think that's a good question. But one thing to 271 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: note is that a lot of the foreign policies that 272 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 1: Trump put forward, it's not just necessarily there are substance, 273 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: but more of the style in which he went about 274 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 1: them that I think Biden would would pivot from. For example, 275 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: I believe that Biden would still maintain a tough on 276 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 1: China policy, would still push NATO allies to contribute more 277 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: to the alliance and what have you. But with Biden 278 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: we could expect much more of a um stable, predictable 279 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 1: foreign policy, one that's very much cooperative, cooperative with our allies, 280 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: very much built on multilateral relationships. So in the sense 281 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,760 Speaker 1: that even if the Senate stayed Republican, some of the 282 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: policies that are currently in play would not necessarily shift 283 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 1: that much, but just the tone in which they were 284 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: undertaken would be a bit more what we'd expect as normal, 285 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: so speak under Biden. Judie, fantastic to catch up. Appreciate 286 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: time this morning, Judie Norman that University College London professor 287 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: plus Sweene and I are going to speak with Douglas 288 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 1: Casts of Sea Breeze partners, still recovering from a Dodgers 289 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 1: victory uh In in the in the World Series. He 290 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: and I went back and forth on that. Well, the 291 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: time is so precious here, Doug. Let's maybe avoid baseball 292 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 1: today because the Red Sox or so we can just 293 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 1: get right to this election. Doug, you've done this a 294 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 1: few few times before. I mean, I remember your playoff 295 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: Kennedy Nixon. How do you play the equity markets off 296 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:38,720 Speaker 1: of the tumult of this election? Um, it's tough, I'm 297 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: we don't know really the outcome of the election. Um. 298 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 1: There's an English expression that's claimed to be the translation 299 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 1: of a traditional Chinese curse. Maybe we live in interesting times, 300 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: and we clearly live in interesting times. UM. I think, 301 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 1: as was the case in two thousand and sixteen, the 302 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 1: predictive ability of betting shops and internal political forecasts UM 303 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: have both have failed. I think that the two uh 304 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: substantive observations I would have is that there was no 305 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: repudiation of Trump's policy, nor will his um throng of 306 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: devotes be cast out as lepers as some expected. Trump 307 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,719 Speaker 1: may be emboldened, but we have a very slim margin 308 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: in the makeup of Congress is something of a limiting factor. 309 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: The second thing is it relates to the stock market. 310 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 1: This is really important, is that the inroads of the 311 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:39,359 Speaker 1: progressive left of the Democratic Party were overstated and round 312 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: and roundly renounced in the election. So there's going to 313 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: be a period of soul searching of message and policy 314 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 1: recalibration likely lying ahead. But regardless of the outcome, it's 315 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: clear that our country is divided and the white sweeping 316 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:59,480 Speaker 1: policy initiatives are unlikely for the Democrats or Republicans over 317 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: the next several years. So from a stock market standpoint, 318 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: we have a house divided. It's something of a positive 319 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 1: in the markets, but it's really close to a non 320 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: event um um though, I think over the short term 321 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: we're going to benefit from the unusual poor and defensive 322 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 1: and cautious positioning by market participants. The one stat I'll 323 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: give you is that the et F put call ratio 324 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 1: was one point seven two yesterday, and that's the highest 325 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 1: level since March of twelve, right before and exposed move 326 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: higher higher. So we all have the fact that there's 327 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 1: not going to be a capital gains tax increase, so 328 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 1: we're not going to see the traditional December selling Paul. 329 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: That was Sandy Kofax's e R a in and off 330 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 1: year in the sixties one seven to exactly, Doug, it 331 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 1: looks like, I mean, if things kind of hold here, 332 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 1: I mean, at one scenario is a Democratic white House, 333 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: but uh, a Republican Senate and even the Democrats in 334 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: the House less strong. So does that suggest not much 335 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: gets done? And if that's the case, what do you 336 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: do from a stock market perspective? Uh, there's a couple 337 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 1: of things that I'm doing right now. So um, rather 338 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 1: than being um theoretical, I'll tell you what I'm doing 339 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:17,160 Speaker 1: kinetically speaking. Um, the first thing we've seen is that 340 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: there's weakness and bank stocks today after strength, as we 341 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: saw a pivot from growth to value in the last 342 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. I think it's going to be shortly reversed, 343 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:30,719 Speaker 1: and I'm buying aggressively more bank stocks. I think regardless 344 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: of the presidential outcome, the Republican Party, as I said, 345 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,680 Speaker 1: is going to control the Senate, and the Democratic Party, 346 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: as I said, could move towards the center. This means 347 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: that the fears of tighter and more onerous banking industry 348 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: legislation are unlikely, something that has really weighed on the group. 349 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: Polly interesting and so you know, it's what's your sense 350 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: as to I mean, we pivot back. We have to 351 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: get back to reality at some point, and the reality 352 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 1: is there's a raging pandem make out there. The economic 353 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 1: impacts likely to continue away on the economy. Are you 354 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 1: having any changing thoughts as to potential for fiscal stimulus 355 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: over the next several months, Yeah, I'm look. I spent 356 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: all year, um unrelentlessly buying the dips. In fact, right 357 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: now I have my lowest um gross exposure on the 358 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: short side I've had probably in the year or two. 359 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: I am still between medium sized and large size and 360 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 1: that long um. So I think over the short term 361 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 1: we're going to get you know, have a salutary impact 362 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: upon the markets. But as you look for all into 363 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 1: one UM, the pandemic is appears that it's going to linger. 364 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 1: The stimulus will be delayed both in timing and reduced 365 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: in size, and unfortunately small businesses will continue to be 366 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 1: gutted along with industries like try entertainment hospitality. So I 367 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 1: don't think, Paul, the consensus estimate for S ANDP earnings 368 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: of about a hundred and seventy dollars a share comes 369 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 1: to fruition. The positive is that the fifteen dollars or 370 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 1: twenty dollars that will be locked off from that because 371 00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 1: of an increase in corporate tax rates is no longer 372 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,199 Speaker 1: a factor. And the other positive, of course is that 373 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 1: when you do divot and discount models you look at 374 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,360 Speaker 1: the risk rey rate of return as you can look 375 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: as you can see by the t LT and bond yields, 376 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: that's going ever lower. So that helps valuations. So UM 377 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:39,160 Speaker 1: short term quite bullish, uh, intermediate term quite negative, Doug, 378 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,880 Speaker 1: how do you play and this is what I mean 379 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 1: like trading like you're talking about your claim if you will, 380 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: But how do you play the growthiness of the tech area, etcetera. 381 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: Healthcare maybe as well with a voltage shift to small 382 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: cap MIDCAB and the international. Did you buy the story, Um, 383 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: you mean the pivot from growth of value? Yeah, I 384 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 1: do buy the story, with the exception of two growth 385 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: outliers that I'm pretty long as you know, Amazon, which 386 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 1: was up over a hundred and thirty dollars this morning, 387 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: and Google, which is up another sixty one dollars, which 388 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 1: had just exceptional UH search and advertising results in their 389 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: earnings released last week. So in the main I like 390 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 1: value over growth with some except with the two exceptions. Um, 391 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: so my focus is on food package companies, banks on 392 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: the longside. Um. Perhaps even I'm looking for the first 393 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:45,400 Speaker 1: time at energy. WHOA, Yeah, I was just energy your 394 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: energy thesis there because we you know Tom and I, 395 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,199 Speaker 1: we we search for folks that will talk to us 396 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: about energy, and they're hard to find. All energy is 397 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: such a small percentage of the SMP that's become almost irrelevant. Um, 398 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 1: you know I manage money based upon UH having a 399 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 1: calculator in one hand and a contrarian mindset and the other. 400 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:12,159 Speaker 1: And with the exception of solo, which will be penalized 401 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: by an apparent Trump victory. I do think umsil fuels 402 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: and energy, which is really really hated. UM is at 403 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: evaluation divergence against growth and the board of market which 404 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: is unparalleled, So you could have UH again. Market participants 405 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: are not positioned in the sector, and I think that's 406 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 1: important as well. Well. One quick question, Doug, you're you're 407 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 1: you're wonderful at not being a yield hug with energy. 408 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 1: The temptation of our listeners does go after x on 409 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,920 Speaker 1: mobile with a ten point seven percent dividend. I would 410 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 1: say it's an elegant chart, Seuth, What do you do 411 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 1: with Exxon? I'm looking at the entire group. Next time 412 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 1: I'm on, I'll tell you what the applies himself, right yea. 413 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 1: He usually does that during spring training, but we get 414 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: it on election day. Doug cast too short of visit. 415 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, sir. Thanks for listening to the 416 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 417 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:19,080 Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at 418 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: Tom Keane Before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 419 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio