1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,519
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action.

2
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:07,960
Speaker 2: All right.

3
00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 1: Here we go from the test throwing out so spect

4
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 1: I'm sitting up a cash touchtop.

5
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:16,319
Speaker 2: That's all we see.

6
00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go swin.

7
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,800
Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money,

8
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:31,520
Speaker 2: all right. This is the ultimate KABA want to And

9
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,120
Speaker 2: we are underway. What is up?

10
00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,800
Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host,

11
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,920
Speaker 1: Chris Raybond, joined by my colleague, the one and only

12
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,279
Speaker 1: the Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics, one of the

13
00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,680
Speaker 1: best bet betters fantasy rankers in the biz, the odds

14
00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 1: maker Sean Kerner. Shawn, what's going on?

15
00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,240
Speaker 3: It's up, just enjoying the summer, trying to get my

16
00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,680
Speaker 3: golf game from just like pathetic to awful right before

17
00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,039
Speaker 3: football season starts. Uh, and then never golf again and

18
00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 3: then try again next year. But how about you, how's

19
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 3: your summer going?

20
00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,720
Speaker 1: Uh? Like, golf game is terrible as well, but we

21
00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 1: need to go golfing. It's going pretty well. Uh. Waiting

22
00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:19,480
Speaker 1: for this thunder, Uh, this thunder series to come to

23
00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:21,080
Speaker 1: an end. I hope they went in six because I

24
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,560
Speaker 1: got a ticket for that, So we enjoying that. But

25
00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:25,960
Speaker 1: uh yeah, hopefully we get to hang out pretty soon

26
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,800
Speaker 1: this summer. Uh and last summer, speaking of which, our

27
00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,120
Speaker 1: team recorded a special episode covering best practices in the

28
00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 1: world of sports betting. Sean and I were unable to

29
00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:39,840
Speaker 1: join that episode for whatever reason.

30
00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:41,479
Speaker 2: What what could we have possibly been.

31
00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:46,120
Speaker 1: Doing last I'm actually I don't know, I don't know,

32
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: but we're enjoy that episode for some reason. So we

33
00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:53,800
Speaker 1: decided that to just make our own episode because we're

34
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,520
Speaker 1: that awesome, not just kidding, just because uh, we thought

35
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,760
Speaker 1: there's more to uh to teach and for everybody out

36
00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,280
Speaker 1: there could benefit by. So you know, all sports betters,

37
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 1: even though it's betting you know for years, you can

38
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:08,800
Speaker 1: use a little brush up on the basics. But also

39
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,400
Speaker 1: you know, there's some more advanced topics that we want

40
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,639
Speaker 1: to talk about as well. So if you're new, this

41
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:19,040
Speaker 1: is an opportunity to have some kind of baseline questions

42
00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,800
Speaker 1: answered and maybe you hear something you never thought about before,

43
00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,160
Speaker 1: never realized. But regardless of who you are, I promise

44
00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,400
Speaker 1: you will get something out of this episode if you

45
00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:29,600
Speaker 1: are a sports better.

46
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,800
Speaker 2: Sean and I've been betting.

47
00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,960
Speaker 1: Every single day basically for way too long. And the

48
00:02:36,000 --> 00:02:38,600
Speaker 1: one thing we definitely have a common bre always trying

49
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:41,200
Speaker 1: to learn and improve and teach it this. So that's

50
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,919
Speaker 1: the spirit of today's episode. So let's get right into.

51
00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 2: It, Sean.

52
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,079
Speaker 1: I'll hit you with the crashes first and then I'll

53
00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,840
Speaker 1: kind of follow up. So let's get into it, Sean.

54
00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,440
Speaker 1: In any sports, specifically NFL, though, when do you think

55
00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 1: you should bet early? Verse is closer to start time,

56
00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,320
Speaker 1: And when I say bet early, I mean soon after

57
00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:09,720
Speaker 1: the opening lines have dropped versus you know, start time,

58
00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 1: which is obviously for football kind of right there reading

59
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,040
Speaker 1: up to kick off in the minutes or maybe hours

60
00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,880
Speaker 1: before that. When do you think when do you think

61
00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:21,799
Speaker 1: the best time is to kind of go early versus later?

62
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, So for me personally, it just comes down to,

63
00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,119
Speaker 3: you know what direction I think the line will go,

64
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,240
Speaker 3: And the goal is always to get the best number possible,

65
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 3: like that's the ultimate goal. So if I think I'm

66
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,680
Speaker 3: going to be fading a popular play, like let's say,

67
00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,280
Speaker 3: for some reason, I'm showing guy on Saquon Barkley to

68
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,440
Speaker 3: go under his rushing yards for whatever reason, that's a

69
00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 3: market where I know that ninety plus percent of people

70
00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,960
Speaker 3: are going to be all over is over, which you know,

71
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,840
Speaker 3: more times than not, his his prop might slightly go

72
00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:58,320
Speaker 3: up up until you know, kickoff. So that's that's a

73
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 3: situation where I might lay off and kind of wait

74
00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,560
Speaker 3: for the line to get inflated and then possibly go

75
00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,640
Speaker 3: under once I think it's peaked. On the flip side,

76
00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 3: if I'm showing a ton of value on something and

77
00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:11,520
Speaker 3: I think the market's going to see it as well,

78
00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:15,400
Speaker 3: like a Wandel Robinson under or something like that, I'm

79
00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:17,680
Speaker 3: going to try to take that immediately because I think

80
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,680
Speaker 3: the market's going to catch on and it's just you know,

81
00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,919
Speaker 3: a bad opening number or a bad early market for that.

82
00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,599
Speaker 3: So I think when it comes to deciding to go

83
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 3: early or later, you just have to decide which direction

84
00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,320
Speaker 3: you think the line's going to go. If the market's

85
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,720
Speaker 3: going to be all over it, you have to get

86
00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,720
Speaker 3: on it early. If you think you're kind of fading

87
00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,520
Speaker 3: the market, so to speak, you can kind of wait

88
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 3: and let that number get inflated. So that's half the battle,

89
00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,680
Speaker 3: and I'm not always right about it, so it's you know,

90
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:47,680
Speaker 3: part of the game. But for me, it's just assessing

91
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 3: personally which direction I think the line's going to go

92
00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:51,640
Speaker 3: where at the end of the day, we're just trying

93
00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,400
Speaker 3: to get the best number possible and timing that, you know,

94
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:56,719
Speaker 3: betting earlier in the week or later in the week

95
00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,360
Speaker 3: often makes the difference in that.

96
00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think for me it's I kind of

97
00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:10,240
Speaker 1: start with the default expectation that overs favorites are gonna

98
00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 1: kind of the line is going to move in that

99
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,600
Speaker 1: direction and then adjust from there. So there are times when,

100
00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 1: for example, you mentioned like a Saquon Barkley prop. Usually

101
00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:20,800
Speaker 1: those are gonna be overs, but every once in a

102
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 1: while there's gonna be like a trendy under pick it

103
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,240
Speaker 1: for a prop or you know, every week in the

104
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:31,120
Speaker 1: NFL there's usually maybe one or two trendy underdog picks

105
00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 1: that you know the public is kind of uh piling on.

106
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,400
Speaker 1: And with the with the games, you can always see

107
00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,800
Speaker 1: those bet percentages money percentages in the Action Network at

108
00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,680
Speaker 1: we're generally looking at bet percentage when we talk about

109
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,839
Speaker 1: the public, but the money can't factor in because that's

110
00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:49,400
Speaker 1: that's what the book is adjusting to. But with props,

111
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,359
Speaker 1: you just kind of have to assume that it's going

112
00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:53,960
Speaker 1: to be an over and just because more markets exist

113
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,160
Speaker 1: with overs anyway, and then you know, if it's kind

114
00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,440
Speaker 1: of a trendy under you probably realize that during the

115
00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,360
Speaker 1: week if you're really you know, paying attention or whatnot.

116
00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think if if the line.

117
00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,000
Speaker 1: Is moving with you, you want to kind of get

118
00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 1: on it.

119
00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,880
Speaker 2: If it's going to move against you, then you can wait.

120
00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,400
Speaker 1: All right, Sean, here's a here's a question that I

121
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:21,120
Speaker 1: think has become way more relevant than maybe we wanted

122
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,560
Speaker 1: it to be for for for people's bank rows, but

123
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,040
Speaker 1: it's here to stay. So I have to ask you

124
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,880
Speaker 1: what's your approach to parlay's are? And do you think

125
00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:36,760
Speaker 1: there are like smart expert kind of ways to bet

126
00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,160
Speaker 1: a parlay because I know we are a little bit

127
00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,080
Speaker 1: anti parlay here just from a numbers perspective, So you know,

128
00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,520
Speaker 1: what is your approach? What do you what do you

129
00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,680
Speaker 1: think the smartest way to go about parways are? And

130
00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,040
Speaker 1: does anything change with you know that same game partaways

131
00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:52,920
Speaker 1: just versus parlays a large for you.

132
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean I personally focus on straight bets.

133
00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,480
Speaker 3: You know, I definitely don't do as many parlays as

134
00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,800
Speaker 3: your average better, but if you treat them like what

135
00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,200
Speaker 3: they are, you know, for entertainment purposes. They're a ton

136
00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,080
Speaker 3: of fun. So I'm not some stiff. I do bet

137
00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:12,080
Speaker 3: parlays for fun. I mean we me and you bet

138
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,320
Speaker 3: on ski ball at Blind Donkey, like we're you know,

139
00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 3: we have part dgen DNA, So there's part of that

140
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,520
Speaker 3: when it comes to parlays too. But I think there

141
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 3: are sharp ways to do them, you know, I'm I'm

142
00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:29,520
Speaker 3: projecting every game, every team, every player, So I like

143
00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 3: finding angles for like a matchup if everything lines up,

144
00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:37,520
Speaker 3: especially for an SGP same game parlay. So the first

145
00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,280
Speaker 3: thing is you typically want to you know, parlay things

146
00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 3: that are correlated. So if you take Patrick Mahomes to

147
00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:48,360
Speaker 3: go over as passing yards prop Travis Kelcey's over receiving yards,

148
00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,080
Speaker 3: makes a ton of sense because they're very correlated. The

149
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 3: books know that, though, so they're going to you know,

150
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,880
Speaker 3: reduce the payout for things like that. So it's it's

151
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 3: not as simple as just taking things that are correlated.

152
00:07:58,680 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 2: Right.

153
00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:01,120
Speaker 3: So one of the things that I found, like the

154
00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:05,400
Speaker 3: sharp way to do parlays or find things that you know,

155
00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:09,760
Speaker 3: the book is treating as anti correlated reverse correlation things,

156
00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 3: but they actually correlate more than the book is leading on.

157
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,680
Speaker 3: And one of just there's many examples of this, but

158
00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:20,520
Speaker 3: one personal one that I like to do is say

159
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,720
Speaker 3: someone like calv Ridley, I will take say the under

160
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 3: on his receptions, but the over on his receiving yards.

161
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,240
Speaker 3: You know, there's there's some reverse correlation there. The books

162
00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,360
Speaker 3: are going to kind of juice out the payout because

163
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 3: you know, you're threading the needle there. But a player

164
00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,400
Speaker 3: like him, he's not going to catch many passes or

165
00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,440
Speaker 3: he's going to get a ton of downfield low you know,

166
00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,440
Speaker 3: probability targets, but when he does catch him, he tends

167
00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:48,480
Speaker 3: to get a ton of yards, so it actually sets

168
00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 3: up well for him specifically. So those are kind of

169
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,319
Speaker 3: like thread the needle type parlays or you're going to

170
00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,400
Speaker 3: get a bigger payout because the book is saying this

171
00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:02,200
Speaker 3: isn't that correlated, But according to my projections, my sims,

172
00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:05,360
Speaker 3: all my crazy you know math third stuff, it is

173
00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 3: correlated in a sense. So I found doing things like

174
00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 3: that you kind of get more value as opposed to

175
00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,280
Speaker 3: just finding things that are very highly correlated, where the

176
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,680
Speaker 3: book already knows that. So I found, you know, doing

177
00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,959
Speaker 3: creative things like that, is one of the best ways

178
00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,840
Speaker 3: to actually be sharp when it comes to betting parlays

179
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:25,280
Speaker 3: or sgps.

180
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:26,679
Speaker 2: I like that.

181
00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:28,520
Speaker 1: I like because this is one of the questions where

182
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,839
Speaker 1: I think it's funny because and maybe that's how you know.

183
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:33,800
Speaker 2: Parways are all over the place in terms.

184
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,840
Speaker 1: Of expecting value, but like I approach them actually completely different.

185
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,080
Speaker 1: Especially in the NFL, I don't really look for correlations

186
00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 1: anymore because I do feel like half the time I

187
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:47,880
Speaker 1: can't even I can't even put them in a parlay together.

188
00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:49,120
Speaker 2: The books have really smarted.

189
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,680
Speaker 1: Second of all, to your point, you're starting to get

190
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,800
Speaker 1: lines that they're not even what they would be individually

191
00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,959
Speaker 1: if you just parlay them like the book is. Actually

192
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:00,199
Speaker 1: it's kind the kind of treating them like I could

193
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,440
Speaker 1: tease there something where it's you know, they're they're setting

194
00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 1: a specific price. So what I try to do is

195
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,400
Speaker 1: I just look at gamescripts at large. I almost treat

196
00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:08,920
Speaker 1: it like you know, you and I have talked about

197
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,120
Speaker 1: in the past about DFS lineups and you know, getting

198
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,400
Speaker 1: them to tell a story. Well, you know, if there's

199
00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,120
Speaker 1: a certain team, like let's say in basketball, the Oklahoma

200
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:20,640
Speaker 1: City Thunder at home in the playoffs, just been ridiculous.

201
00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 1: So I'm just gonna play a lot of different, you know,

202
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,280
Speaker 1: kind of plays that correlate with that with my one

203
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,679
Speaker 1: specific outcome. But I'm not necessarily looking for like you know,

204
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,480
Speaker 1: it has to be like low three pointers and low assists,

205
00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,480
Speaker 1: which you know do correlate to each other. It's just

206
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 1: whatever I think is undervalued. And that's the other key

207
00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,200
Speaker 1: I think for me, I found it's just you know,

208
00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,000
Speaker 1: because it's parways, and especially with the rise of the

209
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:46,600
Speaker 1: Same Game parway, everyone's trying to look for these correlations

210
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:48,880
Speaker 1: and these things, and I think the better time and

211
00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,400
Speaker 1: spend if you're gonna spend time researching, just find.

212
00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:52,040
Speaker 2: Plus ev bets.

213
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,920
Speaker 1: Uh and even if they're plus even if they're you know,

214
00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:56,599
Speaker 1: minus juice, because those are the ones a lot of

215
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,679
Speaker 1: people stay away from, but a lot of times they

216
00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:01,840
Speaker 1: have the most value. So like a lot of people

217
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:03,719
Speaker 1: who know follow me the Action app. No, like when

218
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,199
Speaker 1: I go on a hot Streaks, I'll I'll rattle off

219
00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,319
Speaker 1: four or five six bets. I won't put them in

220
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,360
Speaker 1: a parlay in the app, but a lot of them

221
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,559
Speaker 1: will be those like negative juice bets that are just

222
00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,959
Speaker 1: you know, still plus ev and that's how they if

223
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:17,920
Speaker 1: you wanted to parlay, and you would get a pretty

224
00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,120
Speaker 1: good return. So that's how I kind of look at

225
00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:22,920
Speaker 1: it now because I just think the market has gotten

226
00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,000
Speaker 1: so sharp and I don't want to keep like kind

227
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:28,080
Speaker 1: of switching up my process just for the market to

228
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:29,160
Speaker 1: like catch on anyway.

229
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:31,680
Speaker 2: So I just kind of continue to focus on the

230
00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:33,959
Speaker 2: best value bets and usually there's.

231
00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,280
Speaker 1: More than one or two on a slate and and

232
00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,560
Speaker 1: kind of go from there. All right, Teasers kind of

233
00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:44,200
Speaker 1: a related topic to parlays is the core value sewan

234
00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,600
Speaker 1: of the NFL teaser mostly dead. They were big, you know,

235
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:50,679
Speaker 1: back in the day before sports betting, I think, got

236
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,040
Speaker 1: all the fame and popularity.

237
00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,120
Speaker 2: And but you know, what is your approach with teasers?

238
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,400
Speaker 2: What are your thought on teasers?

239
00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not a big teaser better, but our guys

240
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,760
Speaker 3: Stucky Is, I think, has a really great article that

241
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,880
Speaker 3: was recently posted on Action Network, so go check it out.

242
00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:08,960
Speaker 3: But he talks about, you know, getting those six point

243
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,400
Speaker 3: teasers for the NFL, where you know, you get the

244
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 3: key numbers of three and seven, so if you're taking

245
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,880
Speaker 3: an underdog, you know plus two and a half goes

246
00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:19,880
Speaker 3: to plus eight and a half, or if you take

247
00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:22,040
Speaker 3: the favorite, minus seven and a half goes down to

248
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:24,800
Speaker 3: minus one and a half, those are still.

249
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 2: You know, a sharp angle.

250
00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,960
Speaker 3: But as always, you know the books have adjusted, so

251
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 3: you know, oftentimes they offer it minus one thirty and

252
00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:34,160
Speaker 3: that's where he's saying that, you know, the value is

253
00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 3: kind of shot. But some books, you know, they offer

254
00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,199
Speaker 3: it at minus one twenty or better, and that's still

255
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:44,000
Speaker 3: you know, offering value. So and there's things that you

256
00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,199
Speaker 3: know can make that even more valuable. So if the

257
00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,440
Speaker 3: total for that game is low, it means you know,

258
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 3: the points are going to be more at a premium

259
00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:53,960
Speaker 3: in that game, So you know, getting points in a

260
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,400
Speaker 3: teaser is going to be more valuable. And even you know,

261
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:02,160
Speaker 3: identifying you know, the quality kickers in the game. Kicking

262
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,560
Speaker 3: has been kind of an issue NFL, especially since they've

263
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:09,320
Speaker 3: backed up Dexter point, So you know, if the kickers

264
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,320
Speaker 3: are two quality kickers in that game, it's probably more

265
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,720
Speaker 3: likely you know, the key numbers are going to be valuable.

266
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,319
Speaker 3: So no, I don't think you know, teaser value is

267
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,760
Speaker 3: totally dead. It's harder to find. You just need to

268
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,640
Speaker 3: be selective and make sure that you're getting say minus

269
00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:26,000
Speaker 3: one to twenty odds or better when you are doing

270
00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 3: these six point teasers.

271
00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say the teaser is It's definitely something

272
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,080
Speaker 1: I've pulled back on over the past few years, and

273
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:39,920
Speaker 1: I would say it probably is mostly dead at large,

274
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 1: only because with the rise of all these other types

275
00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,840
Speaker 1: of parlays, you can make same game parlays. I mean,

276
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,239
Speaker 1: the teasers are pretty unsexy way to go about parlaying

277
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,719
Speaker 1: at this point because you're kind of parlaying the variants

278
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,840
Speaker 1: and trying to keep the odds the same. So that's

279
00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,560
Speaker 1: why it's so important that you get you know, minus

280
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,360
Speaker 1: one twenty or left, you know, the normal odds, or

281
00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,360
Speaker 1: minus one ten, which means, you know, bet one ten

282
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,360
Speaker 1: win one hundred. You don't want to really go above

283
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,600
Speaker 1: minus you know, bet one twenty win one hundred, because

284
00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,000
Speaker 1: all you're trying to do is say, okay, with two

285
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:15,439
Speaker 1: outcomes with points, you know, with this six point variant.

286
00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 1: Either way, I can kind of you know, cobble together.

287
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:20,920
Speaker 1: I have some you know, wiggle rooms to kind of

288
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 1: codle together two winning bets and and I can hit

289
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:24,600
Speaker 1: that at the rate that.

290
00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:26,560
Speaker 2: I would normally hit single bets.

291
00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:30,000
Speaker 1: So It's just like instead of parlaying with as you parlay,

292
00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,640
Speaker 1: the juice increases as you parlay, your margin forever.

293
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 2: Increases with a teaser.

294
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:38,800
Speaker 1: But I think with the rise of and Sean, tell

295
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 1: me if this has impacted because I always think this

296
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:45,000
Speaker 1: is a fascinating topic, especially when we're talking about NFL

297
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 1: these last few years, because you kind of had like

298
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,720
Speaker 1: the COVID year, which was somewhat of an outlier because

299
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:53,840
Speaker 1: of the no home road, and then you had, you know,

300
00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,680
Speaker 1: all these rule changes with the kickoff and and a

301
00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 1: different field position and different things.

302
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,880
Speaker 2: Do you think just the the rise of.

303
00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,800
Speaker 1: Kind of the current style of NFL play is also

304
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,160
Speaker 1: kind of cut into the profit of teases. When I

305
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 1: say that, I mean more teams going for two, which means,

306
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 1: you know, less predictable scores, teams going for two when

307
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:16,200
Speaker 1: they're down, you know, multiple scores before they actually have to,

308
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 1: like skewing field goals and things like that. You think

309
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 1: that kind of plays into it as well.

310
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's a great point, and it kind of

311
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 3: increases the range of outcomes, which you don't want when

312
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 3: it comes to teasers. That's an excellent point. Yeah, you

313
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 3: have coaches going for and fourth down. You know, they're

314
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,120
Speaker 3: down by ten points with a minute left in the game,

315
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 3: and they settle for the field goal and they try

316
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,320
Speaker 3: to do it on side kick. There's like all these

317
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,280
Speaker 3: different coaching changes, and like I said, the kickers having

318
00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 3: to you know, make a thirty three yard field goal

319
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 3: for the next point.

320
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,400
Speaker 2: Now, that has impacted as well. So yeah, I think

321
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:51,760
Speaker 2: you're right.

322
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 3: I think just the style of play, coaching decisions, things

323
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 3: like that has kind of widened the range of outcomes,

324
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 3: which you don't really want in a teaser because you

325
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 3: kind of want those points to be valuable.

326
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, I agree with that.

327
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 3: I think that the way the NFL is changing has

328
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:08,920
Speaker 3: kind of shifted the value away from teasers as well.

329
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 1: And I should mention, you know, key numbers which Sean

330
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 1: mentioned at the top, those are generally just numbers that

331
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,160
Speaker 1: the outcome lands on, so three, six, seven in the NFL.

332
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 2: But again, those are just getting more.

333
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,880
Speaker 1: Kind of all over the place with with the way

334
00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,880
Speaker 1: teams strategically are going about things at this day and age.

335
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:32,360
Speaker 2: So that's something to keep an eye on, all right.

336
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 1: Next up, let's talk about bank roll when and how

337
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,920
Speaker 1: to manage it. Sean looking up the upcoming NFL season,

338
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 1: for example, is identifying like a specific personal bank will

339
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 1: amount something that that you do, or how do you

340
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,280
Speaker 1: kind of how do you recommend people manage their bank Well,

341
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:55,600
Speaker 1: how do you manage yours?

342
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: I'm you know, I'm assuming your is a little larger

343
00:16:57,480 --> 00:16:58,160
Speaker 2: than the average.

344
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,400
Speaker 1: That's I also say, you know, how do you recommend

345
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 1: people maybe a little you know, just starting out, manage

346
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 1: their bankroll?

347
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, so bankroll management is such an underrated critical part

348
00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,439
Speaker 3: when it comes to sports betting. Yes, you know, winning

349
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 3: more bets than you lose is essential, That's what we're

350
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:18,399
Speaker 3: trying to do here. But I've seen people lose money

351
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 3: despite having a high win rate. You know, for example,

352
00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,480
Speaker 3: you can go seven to three betting on you know,

353
00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 3: minus one ten type markets and end up down units.

354
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,199
Speaker 3: If you say, you know, one of those losses, you

355
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 3: risk five times as much as you did and of

356
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 3: your other bets. So I think it's it's key just

357
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,000
Speaker 3: being disciplined, and it comes a bankroll. So yeah, heading

358
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,360
Speaker 3: into week one, it's important to start. I think it's

359
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:45,639
Speaker 3: important to start with, you know, a set bankroll amount

360
00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 3: and a set unit size. That's critical. The key is

361
00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 3: just to be consistent and have a set unit size

362
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:54,600
Speaker 3: that's say a fraction of your bankroll. It could be

363
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:58,600
Speaker 3: two percent. Let's say that means you know, as your

364
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 3: bankroll grows or shrinks, your unit size could go up

365
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 3: or down. And and one way to also approach this

366
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:10,320
Speaker 3: is there's something called the Kelly criterion strategy. It's a

367
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 3: it's a great way to accomplish this, especially if you're

368
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,760
Speaker 3: like me and you're making projections for things you have

369
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 3: an exact edge or theory edge. I think it's probably

370
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 3: a bit too aggressive, so I would typically do like

371
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 3: a quarter Kelly if you do go down that road.

372
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,119
Speaker 3: But you know, I'm I'm limited, and especially when it

373
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:31,840
Speaker 3: comes to props, I'm limited, so I don't get to

374
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 3: apply that as much. I'm just max s batting, trying

375
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,240
Speaker 3: to get as much money down if I see an edge. Yeah,

376
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 3: but if if you're doing it the right way, you

377
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:43,119
Speaker 3: have a bankroll, you know, a strict unit size, a

378
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: two percent of your bankroll that's going to let you

379
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,719
Speaker 3: survive the inevitable, you know, rough patches that come up,

380
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 3: and it prevents you from tilting and chasing losses, which

381
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 3: is a different thing, but it just lets you be

382
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:58,639
Speaker 3: more stable, and if you're winning more bets than not,

383
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,160
Speaker 3: your bankroll will canntinue to grow. And like I said,

384
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,360
Speaker 3: if you're winning bets, your bet size can actually go up.

385
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 3: That's part of the strategy. So I think just going

386
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 3: in with the approach of being you know, stable and

387
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,719
Speaker 3: consistent with your uh, you know, unit size, I think

388
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 3: it's critical and it's it's often overlooked when it comes

389
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:17,480
Speaker 3: to sports betting.

390
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I would say that I would just add

391
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: that that is that's kind of like almost like the

392
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 1: ideal you're aiming for, because I will say, like, we

393
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,160
Speaker 1: know we have some information on you know, the average better,

394
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: and we know the average better is only spending like

395
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 1: five bucks and probably spending a you know, probably parlaying

396
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 1: some stuff.

397
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 2: So I would say you could be more.

398
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 1: Aggressive when you're talking about like you know, double figure

399
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: bank roll amounts or triple figure bank roll amounts. Like

400
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,400
Speaker 1: when you really start wanting to be consistent and you're

401
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 1: is when you have a substantial bankroll to work with,

402
00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 1: I think, and you actually can.

403
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 2: See yourself because to me, it's like you have to care.

404
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 1: You also have to find us a point where you

405
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 1: actually care about the bets you're making. You know, it

406
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: can't be so small that you just don't even care,

407
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,679
Speaker 1: but it can't be so big that you're like in

408
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 1: danger of losing everything with a coup a losing streak.

409
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: So I would say there is a little pushing pro

410
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 1: to it, especially if you're just starting out, Like if

411
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 1: you're starting out and you're just gonna be kind of

412
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 1: betting five out of parways every day or every week

413
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: until you hit it big, and like you just allocate

414
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: five dollars a week, and that's like, yeah, use one

415
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 1: hundred percent of your bankroll because like you know what

416
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: I mean, you're gonna like you're gonna want to get

417
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 1: that one big hit and then then I think it

418
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,120
Speaker 1: means a lot more like once. I would say, once

419
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 1: you hit four figures, especially, that's when you really want

420
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,200
Speaker 1: to start like making sure that your unit size is

421
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: a consistent percentage of your bank roll. Like I think Sean,

422
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 1: you were you were saying, like so it's like if

423
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 1: you're winning more, your unit size is naturally going up exactly.

424
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:49,640
Speaker 2: That's really important.

425
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 1: I would also say to your point, Sean, one of

426
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 1: the biggest things in terms of bankroll management once you're

427
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: at a place where you're comfortable with your bankroll, and

428
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: it's not just you're not just throwing parlays at the

429
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 1: world to try to build.

430
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 2: One I would say is.

431
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: Line shopping, like you you need to you need to

432
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 1: be on multiple sites because those limits that Sean mentioned

433
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,040
Speaker 1: on parlays can catch up to you really quickly, and

434
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: you don't always You're not going to always be able

435
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: to predict the limit.

436
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 2: That's another thing. Like it maybe one thing if a

437
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,639
Speaker 2: site was just like.

438
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 1: You can you can't only bet one hundred hours on

439
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: parlays or something like that. But I've been at sites

440
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 1: where one day it's like you can only bet a thousand,

441
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: next day, you can only but one hundred next day

442
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 1: with this specific prop you can only bet three twenty

443
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: eight eighty six or you know what I mean.

444
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 2: Like it doesn't it's.

445
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,879
Speaker 1: Not consistent, and so you have to be prepared to, like,

446
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 1: if you want to follow that bankroll strategy of kind

447
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 1: of keeping it a consistent percentage, you have to be

448
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 1: prepared to get money down on multiple sites and do

449
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 1: it quickly, or you're gonna move your own line. If

450
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: you're you know, sometimes like if you're if you're talking

451
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: about props like these things can be very very sensitive.

452
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 2: So, like I.

453
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 1: Would say, the more the more you really are serious

454
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,360
Speaker 1: about managing your bankroll, you're gonna want to have multiple

455
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: sites and book sports books at your disposal, just to

456
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 1: to kind of alleviate that and that uncertainty of not

457
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: knowing what your limit might be, or making sure that

458
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: you can actually, you know, get in and get down

459
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: all the plus ev bets that you'll maybe you're following

460
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 1: Sean and that he's putting out because not every bet

461
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 1: is available every book, Not every line and number is

462
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 1: available every book. So I think I think that having

463
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 1: a multitude of options is actually very important to back romantically.

464
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 2: At least it has been my cases.

465
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 1: My bankroll has has grown compared to when I first

466
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: just started out. We'll continue. First, I want to talk

467
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: to everybody about Underdog. You can go yard all baseball

468
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 1: season long with underdogs, pick them game Underdog. He's one

469
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: of the leading sports apps, and you can play now

470
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: in your state. Billions of fans already one billions making

471
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: picks on Underdog. You're gonna be next to play. All

472
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 1: you got to do download the Underdog app, choose whether

473
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: a baseball player will go higher or lower in one

474
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 1: of their stack categories. We're talking home runs, k's, total bases,

475
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: stolen bases, you know all the stats. Once your picks

476
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 1: feel good, you can play with as little as one dollar.

477
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 1: If you get everything right, you can win up to

478
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: one thousand times your money.

479
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: That's a lot of money.

480
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 3: Uh.

481
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: Love baseball season, Really love taking these Aaron Judge home

482
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 1: run highers. Probably probably a little bit of a cheat code,

483
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 1: but I really love enjoy that.

484
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:35,399
Speaker 2: Uh.

485
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: It's so satisfying to get a higher on a half

486
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 1: a home run correct in the Underdog app. Uh, and

487
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: really all the stack categories, especially if you're into you

488
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,639
Speaker 1: know that side of the game as I am in

489
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: the MLB, which was my first first love actually before

490
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 1: even the NFL. So yeah, So be sure to download

491
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: the Underdog app. Sign up with Promo Code Action Network

492
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,640
Speaker 1: act io n N E t w O r K

493
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 1: to unlock a special offer of up to one thousand

494
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: dollars in bonus cash. That bonus money when you make

495
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 1: your first deposit. That's Promo Code Action Network A c

496
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 1: t IO N AN E t w O r K

497
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 1: must be eighteen plus nineteen plus in Alabama and Nebraska,

498
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:23,120
Speaker 1: nineteen plus in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus

499
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and Arizona, and president in the state where

500
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: Underdog Fantasy operates.

501
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: Terms of why.

502
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 1: Voiding Colorado concern what your play called one eight hundred

503
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 1: gambler or visit NCP at gambling dot org. In Arizona

504
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 1: call one eight hundred next step or text next step to.

505
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: Five three three four to two.

506
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 1: In New York called the twenty four to seven hope

507
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 1: line at one eight seven seven eight hope and why

508
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: or text hope and why. All right, Sean, here's the

509
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: here's another one that you know in the betting industry.

510
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 1: I don't even know if we notice these because they're

511
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: they're so common, but I'm sure I know for a

512
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 1: fact that you know, people who knew it to the

513
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 1: game kind of.

514
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: Feel inundated, inundated with these.

515
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 1: And I'm talking about uh, sportsbook cash out offers, and

516
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 1: like you know, make a make a pick and then

517
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 1: it's not even decided yet, and and or you have

518
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:18,959
Speaker 1: a bunch of bets and they're all there are all

519
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: these little different cash out amounts and they're kind of

520
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: just based on the current I guess value. You could say,

521
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 1: I know you've you've done some work in the action

522
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: app show on kind of doing kind of calculating and

523
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: real live odds. So essentially these cash out offers are

524
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,959
Speaker 1: based on real life odds. Should people be taking them?

525
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: Are those kind of overvalued in your experience? Kind of

526
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 1: like parlors?

527
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean this is something that's it's gonna be

528
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 3: up to the individual when it comes to risk management

529
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: and whether you want to cash out or not.

530
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 2: I think it's a case by case basis.

531
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: But I think when it comes to the cash out price,

532
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 3: it's critical to sess, you know, what, what's the current

533
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 3: fair price?

534
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 2: What should it be to cash out the bet.

535
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,360
Speaker 3: I think you'll often find sports books are cutting off

536
00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 3: even more than and you should get if if you

537
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 3: already simply heads your bet and just bet the opposite

538
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 3: side for to lose. So I think you always want

539
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 3: to check if it's available to see how much you

540
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 3: would cash out by simply hedging the natural way of

541
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 3: just betting against your current bet. You might find you

542
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 3: know you're getting more value by doing that, But you

543
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 3: really want to just assess what the proper cash out

544
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,640
Speaker 3: should be before you even make that decision. I think

545
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 3: right now, you have that the guy that bet thirteen

546
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: dollars that parlay with all the championships, where you know

547
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 3: the payout's over two hundred thousand dollars if the Thunder

548
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 3: and the Oilers both win their respective championships right now,

549
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 3: and that the cash out option was like over one

550
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: hundred thousand dollars, and people are saying he should absolutely

551
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,919
Speaker 3: cash out. I'm saying it's up to him, but you

552
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 3: have to think of it as you know, you're he's

553
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 3: essentially betting one hundred grand to win two hundred grand

554
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 3: right now. So if he still feels like he has

555
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 3: an edge where you know, the Oiler, Oilers and Thunder

556
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 3: are still undervalued and he wants to take on that risk,

557
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 3: he could do it. That's more of a personal decision.

558
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 3: If one hundred thousand dollars is life changing for you,

559
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 3: then by all means you can cash out as opposed

560
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 3: to waiting to see if it turns into two hundred thousand.

561
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 3: So that's why I say it's a personal choice. You

562
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: know what you're trying to accomplish, But when it comes

563
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: to the odds, like I said, you're gonna have to

564
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 3: calculate how much you think it should be worth, and

565
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 3: I think you'll find books are cutting off more than

566
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 3: just letting it ride more times than not. So in

567
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 3: my case, I'm typically just letting it ride. There's very

568
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 3: few situations where I would honestly cash out. I think

569
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 3: one random example I could think of is, you know,

570
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 3: I go into a game, let's say a bet on

571
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 3: a baseball team because I like the starting pitcher, and

572
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 3: then the second inning, you know, there's a shit ton

573
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 3: of rain, there's gonna be like an over hour long delay.

574
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: My picture's gonna be gone.

575
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 3: I might decide at that point I want to cash

576
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 3: out because my perceived edge is gone and I'm just

577
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 3: trying to get out of the bet. But there's very

578
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 3: few cases where I think I personally would do that.

579
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 3: So again, this is something that it's up to the

580
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 3: individual on just that the risk that you want to

581
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,199
Speaker 3: take on. If if you're able to cash out, you know,

582
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 3: have a considerable profit, It's really up to you if

583
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 3: you want to make that color or not.

584
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, it's just like a hard No.

585
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 1: I feel like we're not sponsored by anyone in this episode, right, Yeah,

586
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: no sportsbook, So yeah, I'm just gonna say no, I

587
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 1: feel like all these are marketing opportunities and for the

588
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: sportsbook or just kind of opportunities to take advantage of

589
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 1: the fact that the average person doesn't know how to

590
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 1: calculate that hedge opportunity.

591
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: And really that's all it is.

592
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 1: It's like you said, any previous example when you're talking about, Okay,

593
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: somebody needs the Oilers and the Thunders to both win

594
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: their respective championships.

595
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: Well, Thunder in a good spot. So really, what you

596
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 2: would do? You know, the Oilers that are.

597
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: Down as we record this anyway, so you would you

598
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: would kind of look at you know, placing a bet

599
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: on the on in Florida, right like that. That's kind

600
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: of how you would. You would you would hedge out

601
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: and you could probably get a better So that's the

602
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: advantage of when you have a ticket that's even worse

603
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: cashing out in the first place. The advantage of that

604
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: is now you're in position to hedge and things. So

605
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 1: that's why you know, we talk about for example, I

606
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 1: just did a you know, a bunch of Action Network

607
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: podcasts with Stucky It and I talked about how I

608
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: want multiple Super Bowl tickets, you know, in each conference,

609
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 1: Like I want to the Bills and the Ravens and

610
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Nancy, and I want the Rams and the Niners.

611
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: And it's like, well, why would you bet only two

612
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: teams only one team could win the Super Bowls? Because

613
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: you want that ticket. So when you get to the

614
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: second round of the playoffs, so you get to the

615
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: NFC Championship and you're one of your teams, are multiple

616
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: teams that you have tickets for are in there, now

617
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 1: you can really start hedging.

618
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: You just picking you know, the team that you don't.

619
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 1: Have to win or lose, or you know, doing it

620
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 1: evenly with the amount you know of of that you

621
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: have risks in the first place. So that's that's kind

622
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: of the goal with these things. So a lot of times,

623
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: if you're just looking at what the book is offering,

624
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: they know what that goal is to and they know

625
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: the price of simply hedging it, and they're probably gonna

626
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: charge you just like a normal vague premium or something

627
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: like another ten percent over you know, the ten or

628
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: fifty percent that you're already paid for that future that

629
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:17,239
Speaker 1: bet or whatever it was.

630
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, it would almost be a hard note for me.

631
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 1: But I'd say if you're in position to do it,

632
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 1: you need to calculate what, like, like Sean said, just

633
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: what would be the price if I just bet the

634
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: opposite thing and kind of hedge it that way. And

635
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: we have a hedging calculator at actionnetwork dot com and

636
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 1: for use in the Action app where you can put

637
00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: in as many bets as you want, the odds, the

638
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: amount of units you put down, and it can kind

639
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: of calculate the optimal percentage. That's another it's not quite

640
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 1: the kellicriterion, but it's another one of those conform away

641
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 1: things that you can use to arrive at at the

642
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: answer to these questions. But generally, no, don't, don't take

643
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: the cash out off.

644
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: They know, they know, they know better.

645
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,959
Speaker 1: Come on, they say, Vegas always knows, And that's one

646
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: thing we should say, like they say, Vegas always knows. No,

647
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: it doesn't. Vegas is like Sean, how many times have

648
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: you and I just looked at wise and like what

649
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: is Vegas thinking?

650
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 2: And we were and we were right.

651
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 1: It's Vegas doesn't always know, but Vegas does always know

652
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: the people that are gonna try to take shortcuts, get

653
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: the parlays and the and the cash outs that's what

654
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: Vegas knows.

655
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 2: That's what you need to be careful. You don't need

656
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: to you don't need to think these games are rigged.

657
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 1: Like just because SGA can bait Aaron Smith in the

658
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:27,560
Speaker 1: foul over and over doesn't mean the game is rigged.

659
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: It just means Aaron Ne Smith maybe is not like

660
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: your ideals starting three NBA Finals team.

661
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: That's what that means. So Uh, Also, like you Gottage.

662
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: Shouts to Aaron niemis Man, he's gonna be a lot of

663
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:45,400
Speaker 1: money this year. All right, here's the Alright's here's a

664
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: good question. I think this one comes up a lot

665
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: to the point it's I mean, this word is probably overused,

666
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 1: almost a cliche out, but it does have meanings.

667
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 2: So seawan value? What does value mean when it comes

668
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: to sports betting? Uh? Is there more than one definition?

669
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: I would say inherently, Yeah, there's more than one definition,

670
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: because it's whatever you perceive it to be. Right, So

671
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 2: every better has their own way of defining and identifying value,

672
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: But at its core, it should mean you know that

673
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 2: you perceive the bet to be offering positive expected value

674
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: based on the current odds you're getting. So for me personally,

675
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: it's very easy to spot value because I'm making projections

676
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 2: for everything, So I could just see which bets or

677
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 2: props I'm showing a certain percentage value on and then

678
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: I kind of look into it further.

679
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 3: But if the projected edge is big enough, that's when

680
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 3: I'll bet it. So it's not just about you know,

681
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 3: projecting the outcome, it's whether the line is missed place

682
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: relative to my numbers. So in theory, you can have

683
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 3: two people on opposite bets at the same odds who

684
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: both think they're getting value. So it all comes down

685
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: to how you're defining your edge, and that's what makes

686
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: winning sports betters right. If you're more right than wrong

687
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 3: when it comes to identifying value.

688
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: You're going to win.

689
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, value it's such a vague term, and everybody's gonna,

690
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 3: you know, define it their own individual way. So that's

691
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 3: something I don't think there's like a right or wrong

692
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 3: way about it, because everyone's going to have their own definition.

693
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 3: But when it comes to sports betting, you need to

694
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: have a fundamental system to identify value. So uh, that's

695
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 3: that's my long winded way of saying. You know, everyone

696
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 3: has their own definition of what value means to them.

697
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think I'll just I'll just say, like

698
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: the most common way that I use it in the

699
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:38,479
Speaker 1: most in a way that if people are listening to us,

700
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: they'll probably we'll probably be using it as and that

701
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: is the inherent true odds of an outcome, which are

702
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: never known certaintly, right, Like you don't know for certain

703
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: what percentage of time the Kansas City Chiefs would be

704
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: the Eagles or vice versa. But whatever that whatever you think,

705
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: that is the person the per true value versus the

706
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: impride probability of the odds themselves. So mius one ten

707
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: just means you know about fifty two and a half

708
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: percent chance right to win. So that's like, if you

709
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: think you're there's a fifty five percent chance that this

710
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: bet wins, you know your ages to two and a

711
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:20,760
Speaker 1: half percent.

712
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 2: So that's basically how value is being used.

713
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 1: Especially, I think that's important to say now that we're

714
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 1: looking at parways and a lot more odds that like

715
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 1: mayus one ten is not the dominant I mean, it

716
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: might be the most common, but it's not the dominant

717
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:37,640
Speaker 1: odds I think people are betting at anymore just because

718
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: of parways and all these things.

719
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 2: So I just think.

720
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 1: It's it's you're just looking at the perceived odds by

721
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 1: the juice, like the implied odds, and you can for

722
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 1: every juice that it implies a certain percentage likelihood of outcome.

723
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 1: And there's you know, there's ways to calculate that quickly

724
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 1: with calculators. You can also just add one hundred to

725
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: the to the numerator and denominator for negative juice bets,

726
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: and then you could add one hundred to the denominator

727
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: for positive juice bets and you divide and you get it.

728
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 2: You get it too. It's it's not that hard, but

729
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 2: look it up.

730
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna talk about I'm not gonna go that

731
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: crazy into the weeds on the math.

732
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: But the point is that's the difference.

733
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: Its value is what you perceive it as versus what

734
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 1: the implied odds are. And I should point out because

735
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 1: again I think it comes into a lot more. It's

736
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: a lot more easy to spot when you're actually looking

737
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 1: at some of these bigger juice bets because a lot

738
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 1: of times what I see, where I see the most

739
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 1: value is for example, not to keep going back to

740
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 1: Aaron Nesmith, but he's actually a good example here, he

741
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: was turning the ball over maybe twenty percent of the

742
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: time this season, and so his odds to commit like

743
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 1: a turnover or maybe it was one and a half whatever,

744
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: we're in the high minus one hundred range, which you

745
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: know is about what under two to one. That's about

746
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: saying there's about sixty five sixty sixty five percent chance,

747
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 1: and the reality was there was like an eighty percent

748
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 1: chance that he wasn't gonna turn it over instead of

749
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 1: like a sixty to sixty five percent, So that's like

750
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: a fifteen percent.

751
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 2: Edge, which is massive.

752
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 1: A lot of people don't notice those because they're they're

753
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,479
Speaker 1: looking at like these juiced up like minus one eighty

754
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: as if like the juice is already bet out because

755
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: they suppose it's supposed to be at minus one ten. No,

756
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 1: it's not like there's no there's no saying that a

757
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: player is either going to commit a turnover or not

758
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: committed turnover fifty to fifty like that's that's that's not

759
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,359
Speaker 1: the you know, kind of baseline odds for that kind

760
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: of bet.

761
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:38,759
Speaker 2: So you have to be.

762
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: Aware and for this thing in the same way you

763
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 1: could go flip it where you look at a parlay

764
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: and you know it could be plus two hundred, which is,

765
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 1: you know, about a thirty three percent chance, and you

766
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: could say, hey, like this should be like fifty to fifty,

767
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: this should be even money.

768
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 2: So there's major value.

769
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: On this plus two hundred parway, even though plus two

770
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,200
Speaker 1: hundred maybe doesn't sound sexy to some people who are betting,

771
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 1: Like you know, it's a thousand part of it. So

772
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: it's just all about that that expected value versus whatever

773
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 1: the juice is implying.

774
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,680
Speaker 2: But that is going to do it for us.

775
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 1: Here for Sean Kerner, who you can find on x

776
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,280
Speaker 1: at the Underscore Oddsmaker and also on the Action Network

777
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,239
Speaker 1: app at the same handle, I am Chris RayBan, who

778
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:22,919
Speaker 1: can find me at.

779
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 2: Chris Raybon on both of those.

780
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 1: Till next time, let's get this money. Action Network reminds

781
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

782
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

783
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler