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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.

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Speaker 1: We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz, joined

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Speaker 1: by the one and only Stucky Kendrim Middleton, flying across

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Speaker 1: the globe. From what I've heard right now, experiencing a

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Speaker 1: history of Scotland tour has also I believe she has

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Speaker 1: chugged the barrel of whiskey at this point, and we

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Speaker 1: will get updates come Thursday's episode. But we have all

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Speaker 1: the info that you need to get set for another

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Speaker 1: profitable week. On today's episode, we've got our plant the

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Speaker 1: Flag game for week eight, a breakdown of the top storylines,

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Speaker 1: and of course the main event Evans Tuesday primer. You

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Speaker 1: can't start an NFL betting week without it. The curse

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Speaker 1: continues for the Seattle Mariners, Dodgers, blue Jays set for

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Speaker 1: the world series. Make sure you're tracking all of Sean

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Speaker 1: Zarrillo's action on all of that on the Action Network app.

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Speaker 2: NBA starts tonight.

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Speaker 1: We've got you covered with the Best Bets episode over

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Speaker 1: on Buckets. I'm part of that as well as far

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Speaker 1: as the first night of the NBA. Stucky, who you

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Speaker 1: got Tonight? In the National Basketball Association.

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Speaker 3: I don't bet the NBA, so I couldn't die. I

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Speaker 3: didn't even know it was starting tonight. Lo I am.

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Speaker 3: I was told, I see someone has like load management

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Speaker 3: on day one.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Mitchell Robinson of the New York Knicks. That'll be

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Speaker 1: tomorrow night. I was told, if I was given a

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Speaker 1: debrief before we hit record, that you're not an NBA guy,

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Speaker 1: So I figured you'd hit me with that. Do you

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Speaker 1: have one question for me as it pertains to the NBA?

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Speaker 1: Give me your thirty thousand foot I don't care about

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Speaker 1: this league question heading into the season with it starting tonight.

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Speaker 3: Why don't they shorten the season? That's my question?

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Speaker 2: Money, that's insane. There is way too many games.

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Speaker 3: Way too long. But yeah, I mean, look, people, people

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Speaker 3: love that different strokes, different folks teach their own.

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Speaker 2: Well, do you care about everything?

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Speaker 1: I see you out here tweeting about baseball quite often?

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Speaker 1: How do you even have time to be because I

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Speaker 1: assume you're a casual viewer of the game of baseball,

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Speaker 1: but you're on like fifteen podcasts. How are you able

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Speaker 1: to keep up with that sport on a casual level

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Speaker 1: with everything you have going on?

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Speaker 2: Especially this time of year. It's one thing in June.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I followed most of the year, and

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Speaker 3: it's always I always have it on in the background.

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Speaker 3: It's good background music, so to speak, for when I'm

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Speaker 3: going through all the games. But just comes down to

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Speaker 3: not sleeping. In the fall. We got to college basketball.

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Speaker 3: It's coming up. I'm trying to find time to prepare

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Speaker 3: for that. And I'll be betting that you want to

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Speaker 3: think about that right now. But now I have no

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Speaker 3: questions on them. I couldn't even I'm trying to think, like,

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Speaker 3: what intelligent question I could ask about the NBA. Who's

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Speaker 3: a sleeper in the East. Isn't the East wide open?

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Speaker 2: Like the East?

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Speaker 1: The East is pretty wide open. I would say the

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Speaker 1: Detroit Pistons are a good sleeper in the East. A

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Speaker 1: lot of attention focused on the Knicks and the Calves

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Speaker 1: kind of in a tier at the top, followed by

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Speaker 1: the Orlando Magic. A lot of people expecting big things

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Speaker 1: from them.

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Speaker 3: But what about the Hawks.

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Speaker 1: The Hawks could definitely be one of those teams, but

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Speaker 1: they kind of feel like a paper champion. They loaded

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Speaker 1: up in free agency and we've seen them. We see

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Speaker 1: this in the NFL every year, the team that wins

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Speaker 1: the off season is usually the team that falls short

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Speaker 1: of expectation. So there's a lot of hype from the

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Speaker 1: casuals around the Atlanta Hawks, But I think when you

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Speaker 1: get down to brass tacks, they're probably gonna let people down.

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Speaker 2: That was a good question.

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Speaker 3: And don't the rockets out of a point guard or something?

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Speaker 3: Isn't that they don't?

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Speaker 2: They lost their Hey, you know more than you give

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Speaker 2: yourself credit for.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they lost Fred van Fleet before the season started,

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Speaker 1: so they have to turn to a second year guy

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Speaker 1: and read Shepherd, and they added Ky that's right, Kentucky guy.

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Speaker 1: Uh So we'll see how that works out. Houston should

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Speaker 1: be really good. I am on OKC. By the way,

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Speaker 1: minus seven and a half track that.

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Speaker 3: Right before we lose all of our followers. We got

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Speaker 3: to get onto the MF.

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Speaker 2: I'm on it. Yeah, let's do it all right.

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Speaker 1: Football two games, we saw the Lions slowly dismantle the

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a low scoring game twenty four

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Speaker 1: to nine. Jamiir Gibbs with the fastest touchdown run that

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Speaker 1: we've seen in the last four seasons. Mike Evans broke

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Speaker 1: his collar bone or his clavigal. The Bucks cannot stay

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Speaker 1: healthy to save their lives. Was that a game of

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Speaker 1: the Lions reclaiming the top spot in the NFC? They

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Speaker 1: feel like they are above the pack in terms of

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Speaker 1: that conference.

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Speaker 3: To me, I'd still think the Packers as of today.

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Speaker 3: I mean it was a great effort. I mean that

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Speaker 3: there were so many injuries on both sides that it's

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Speaker 3: like it was hard to make any of that game.

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Speaker 3: I thought Detroit had had a good defensive game plan.

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Speaker 3: A lot of their guys in the secondary stepped up.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was a pretty ugly game overall. Baker

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Speaker 3: Mayfield played awful, probably because I didn't have money betting

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Speaker 3: against him. He missed like some wide open guys and

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Speaker 3: maybe the magic is finally run out because he was

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Speaker 3: going up against a bunch of backups in that secondary.

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Speaker 3: I know that the Bucks that have wide receiver injuries,

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Speaker 3: but that hasn't mattered all year. So yeah, I still

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Speaker 3: need like Detroit has a tough schedule coming down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: It was a great Detroit spot off that loss at

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Speaker 3: home where they're just unbeatable and unbettable against almost so yeah,

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Speaker 3: but the Lions are definitely a player in the NFC.

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Speaker 3: I can't see it with the Bucks. It's like, I

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Speaker 3: don't I don't see it with the defense overall. I mean, look,

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Speaker 3: it's taken Baker Mayfield playing at a top five level,

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Speaker 3: which I'm not sure he can sustain in order for

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Speaker 3: them to basically win a bunch of games in the

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Speaker 3: final minute. So I'm not I don't think that they're

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Speaker 3: a legit real player, especially with all the injuries that

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Speaker 3: they're dealing with in the NFC. And then I mean,

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Speaker 3: I thought overall is I think Seattle is definitely interesting.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's they're playing such a top division, Like

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Speaker 3: who's going to come out of that division? I think

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Speaker 3: maybe San Francisco eventually falls behind just because of all

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Speaker 3: their injuries on the defensive side of the ball, But

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Speaker 3: they're gonna get healthier on offense. But you have the

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Speaker 3: Rams who look really good, and I think the Seahawks

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Speaker 3: with that defense, that defense is elite, that defensive line

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Speaker 3: is elite, their secondary is only going to get healthier.

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Speaker 3: And Sam Darnold that offense are real. I mean they

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Speaker 3: push it downfield off play action as well as anybody

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Speaker 3: in the league. And then you have the Cardinals, who

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Speaker 3: I know that they're two and five, but they basically

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Speaker 3: are in every single game they easily could be four

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Speaker 3: and three or five and two, and they've had a

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Speaker 3: ton of injury, so they're gonna get healthier. So that

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Speaker 3: division is going to be an all out war. But

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Speaker 3: I think you have to take Seattle seriously at this point.

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Speaker 3: And for the Texans, it's the same old story. It's like,

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Speaker 3: did we even get a new offensive coordinator? All the

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Speaker 3: short yardage runs a predictable run. Has it worked for

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Speaker 3: the Texans since like twenty nineteen and their goal line,

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Speaker 3: their short yardage, their early down play calling is so

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Speaker 3: bad and it all comes down to the offensive line,

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Speaker 3: So like, you have to be proactive about that. Get

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Speaker 3: Straud out of the pocket more, don't run on you know,

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Speaker 3: known predictable downs when you know you can't get a

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Speaker 3: push and you know you're gonna lose the line of

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Speaker 3: scrimmage coaching malpractice from Tamiko Ryans. At the end of

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Speaker 3: that second down, run then and then and then the

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Speaker 3: kickoff into the end zone. Then basically the game went

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Speaker 3: to the two minute warning and it was over. So

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Speaker 3: you know, I would love that a team where I'm

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Speaker 3: the head coach, and by head coach, I mean I

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Speaker 3: just do all in game and challenges and clock management.

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Speaker 3: And then I got Mike McDaniel as my offensive coordinator

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Speaker 3: Damiico Ryans as my defensive coordinator. Both great minds and

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Speaker 3: their own aspects maybe not cut out to be the

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Speaker 3: best head coaches. So yeah, Houston looks like they're just

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Speaker 3: you can't take them serious. It's the same exact issues

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Speaker 3: as last week.

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Speaker 2: Didn't store.

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Speaker 1: They didn't score an offensive touchdown last night until two

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Speaker 1: minutes left in the game. At that point it was

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Speaker 1: garbage time, so really not able to get into the

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Speaker 1: end zone. As you mentioned Seattle, they're really good with Houston,

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Speaker 1: and I feel like we kind of know what Seattle is.

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Speaker 1: I feel pretty confident about our read on what they are.

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Speaker 1: I feel like when we look at the Texans from

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Speaker 1: a power rating perspective, they're still graded among the decent

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Speaker 1: teams in the NFL, and I just wonder if we're

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Speaker 1: if we're not overrating them. I mean, this week they're

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Speaker 1: favored against the San Francis GO forty nine ers. What

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Speaker 1: have they shown to warrant that I think that we

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Speaker 1: may I think we might have to just bail on

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Speaker 1: Houston with their inability to score, and C. J. Stroud

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Speaker 1: is just essentially a less effective version of Jared Goff.

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Speaker 1: If he's not able to work off of play action,

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Speaker 1: he's lost. He throws off his back foot, he misses

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Speaker 1: receivers over the top, and this seems a disaster. Are

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Speaker 1: we is this a by low or is it we

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Speaker 1: haven't gotten low enough on the Texans. I think that's

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Speaker 1: sort of the story with Houston is do you view

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Speaker 1: them as well, they can't get any worse, they're going

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Speaker 1: to be on the come up, or we should actually

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Speaker 1: go further into dragging their rating down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think they're just like a slightly

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Speaker 3: below average team that they have an elite defense, like

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Speaker 3: you could argue they have on paper a top three

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Speaker 3: defense in the league. So that's always gonna keep them

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Speaker 3: up a bit from like really plummeting. Overall. Nico Collins

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Speaker 3: got hurt, that's huge. Otherwise if without him got to

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's early, it's Tuesday, we won't really know

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Speaker 3: much for the next day or two. But without him,

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Speaker 3: it's just like a bunch It's like a bunch of

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Speaker 3: young Iowa state wide receivers on the outside. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, San Francisco that are like just an

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Speaker 3: all out max effort with all of their backups on defense.

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Speaker 3: We got to keep an eye on the injury report

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Speaker 3: with them as always, so I could potentially see myself

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Speaker 3: buying Low. I mean they I need Nico Collins in there.

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Speaker 3: The San Francisco defense, I think it just played up

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Speaker 3: on Monday night. They're without Bosa and without Warner, They're

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Speaker 3: they're not going to be able to get pressure. They're

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Speaker 3: not going to be able to just completely overwhelm an

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Speaker 3: offensive line likes a Seattle Can, which is what you

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Speaker 3: saw against you. So Houston's offensive line won't look as

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Speaker 3: bad against San Francisco, and they'll be playing at home,

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Speaker 3: and that defense is always going to come to play,

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Speaker 3: especially at home, in like pretty much a desperation spot.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I could see myself potentially buying Houston, but

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Speaker 3: a lot of injuries on San Francisco to keep track

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Speaker 3: of it. Then Nico Collins is a big one for Uston.

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Speaker 3: Need him in there, so we'll see. I haven't played

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Speaker 3: anything there as of yet.

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Speaker 1: As for the NFC West, before we move off of

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Speaker 1: them completely, if you look at the odds right now

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Speaker 1: on DraftKings to win the division, every single team you

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Speaker 1: can get it plus money. The Rams are plus one

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Speaker 1: forty five, the forty nine ers are plus one fifty,

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Speaker 1: Seattles plus two seventy. I think if I had to

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Speaker 1: take a bite of the apple, that would be my bite.

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Speaker 1: And the Cardinals are two hundred to one, so that

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Speaker 1: might be worth a dollar if you had to bet

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Speaker 1: it right now, who would you place your money on

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Speaker 1: to win the Division?

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Speaker 3: I mean, to be honest, I would probably just throw

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Speaker 3: some couch change on the Cardinals at two hundred to one.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they're only going to get healthier like they go.

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Speaker 3: I mean, their schedule is not easy, is but like

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Speaker 3: this is the team that's been in every game. But

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Speaker 3: if I the way that it probably plays out, and

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Speaker 3: this is all priced in is I just don't think

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Speaker 3: that San Francisco can overcome their defensive injuries, and the

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Speaker 3: Rams are I think just a little bit above. I

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Speaker 3: know they have a loss to San Francisco already, which

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Speaker 3: is what you have to account for, but I think

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Speaker 3: the Rams, as long as they stay healthy, are cut above.

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Speaker 3: But you know it's I mean, the reason the Cardinals

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Speaker 3: are two one, are two and five, and there's three

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Speaker 3: really good teams significantly ahead of them.

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Speaker 1: So like, in order to call them of the remaining

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule, the Cardinals have the toughest rated strength

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Speaker 1: of schedule left among these teams.

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Speaker 2: In the bottom. They're in the twenties in terms of

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Speaker 2: strength of schedule.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's that there's a reason it's two

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Speaker 3: hundred to one. Like jumping all three of those teams,

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Speaker 3: that's a that's a tall order. So I yeah, maybe

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Speaker 3: just for fun the Cardinals, But I do think the

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Speaker 3: Rams eventually take the division. The value is probably in

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Speaker 3: Seattle though, as you said, but I'm pretty close to

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Speaker 3: market when I when I ran it just now like,

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Speaker 3: but Seattle, their offense is real and their defense they've

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Speaker 3: been playing without guys in the secondary. When they get

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Speaker 3: healthy on the back end, with that defensive front, they're

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Speaker 3: they're definitely a scary team. So yeah, I think the

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Speaker 3: Rams win it, but I think the value is probably

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Speaker 3: with Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm gonna end up placing something on Seattle.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the ravens Lamar did not practice on Monday.

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Speaker 2: The line indicates that he's gonna play.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens are taking on the Bears this week, Ravens

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Speaker 1: off of a bye, Ravens favored by six and a

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Speaker 1: half points. But with a week off, and then you

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Speaker 1: come back on Monday to practice and Lamar Jackson still

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Speaker 1: isn't out there. Jim Harball or John Harball rather never

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Speaker 1: said well, he's definitely going to play in week eight.

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Speaker 1: He said that I hope he plays in week eight.

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Speaker 1: So there's still a lot of unknown out there. I

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Speaker 1: took a little grab at the plus six and a

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Speaker 1: half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is

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Speaker 1: going to be out there. That is a gift from

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Speaker 1: the gods. Lamar is worth about seven points to the spread.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, maybe I get caught here with a bad number.

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Speaker 1: But if Lamar doesn't play, I'm sitting pretty I put

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Speaker 1: a I put one unit on that. Where do you

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Speaker 1: land on how we read this one early in the

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Speaker 1: week with the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: I completely disagree with you.

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Speaker 2: Are you going head to head? What? Let's go ahead

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Speaker 2: to head?

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Speaker 4: Sure?

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Speaker 3: I mean the Raves gonna be my plant, my flag game.

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Speaker 3: I do think that Lamar plays. I mean it makes

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Speaker 3: sense to give him a couple more days of rest

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Speaker 3: with his hamstring. I mean there's been time where he

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Speaker 3: doesn't practice until Thursday or Friday of a game week,

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Speaker 3: and then he'll play. So like, I don't even think

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Speaker 3: if he doesn't practice today, I don't even think it's

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Speaker 3: a big deal. I mean, there's obviously a chance he

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Speaker 3: doesn't play. So I mean, if you wanted to take

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Speaker 3: the number because of that, that's fine. I'm of the

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Speaker 3: belief that he is going to play. Uh, and then

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Speaker 3: the Ravens are going to be pretty much fully healthy

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Speaker 3: across the board except for their defensive line. They're gonna

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Speaker 3: have everyone back in the secondary line back, the Roquan

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Speaker 3: Smith will be back. They're finally go out there full

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Speaker 3: arsenal like Recard likely they're all their weapons on offense

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Speaker 3: assuming Lamar is back, and they could finally run the

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Speaker 3: offense that has been arguably the best offense the NFL

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Speaker 3: over the past three years. That's big And this is

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Speaker 3: also a fate of the Bears. So I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think that if if Lamar plays and you have John

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Speaker 3: Harball is the best coach in the NFL after the

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Speaker 3: buye since he took over in Baltimore, desperation spot for

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Speaker 3: the Ravens against the Bears team that's won four straight.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at what the Bears have done,

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Speaker 3: and look, they're improving under Ben Johnson, but they've beat

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Speaker 3: the Commanders who shell unit the Raiders, and they got

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Speaker 3: crushed in that game statistically, ra a game by like

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Speaker 3: three arts per play, the Saints and the Cowboys, who

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Speaker 3: were extremely banged up as well, so they've benefited from

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Speaker 3: a lot of injuries. And across those games they went

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Speaker 3: three for four and fourth down their opponents three for

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Speaker 3: eight plus thirteen turnover margin over their past four games.

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Speaker 3: Over that stretch, they're third and EPA per play on defense,

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Speaker 3: but they're twenty fourth in success rate, and if you

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Speaker 3: take away those turnovers, twenty ninth and EPA per play

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Speaker 3: twenty ninth in success rate. It's been a bottom three

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Speaker 3: defense even during the four game winning streak. Said, they've

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Speaker 3: just gotten a lot of turnovers against some bad quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: so and some pluky turnovers like the Washington fumbles, and

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Speaker 3: but yeat Gino Smith just throwing it right to them

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Speaker 3: multiple times the Saints last week. So I'm not I'm

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Speaker 3: not sold on this Bears defense is still really bad.

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Speaker 3: They also have some injuries. I think this is a

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Speaker 3: spot as long as Lamar plays, and to your point,

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Speaker 3: it's not guaranteed. So if you I can't blame, you're

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Speaker 3: taking the points in saying, well, maybe he doesn't play.

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Speaker 3: I think he's gonna play. I think this closes above seven,

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Speaker 3: and I think the Ravens win this game by twenty plus.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens with Lamar have a very rich history against

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Speaker 1: the NFC, and I'm sure that that will be on

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Speaker 1: Evans primer. I can't even get to I can't get

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Speaker 1: to seven with Lamar on this game. So I love

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Speaker 1: the six and a half right now, but I'm not

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Speaker 1: gonna throw. If I love a bet, I'll throw two

337
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Speaker 1: units on it in the NFL. But I'm gonna wait

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Speaker 1: just in case Lamar plays. Maybe I get a better number,

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Speaker 1: but I probably going to come back in on the Bears.

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Speaker 1: Even if Lamar does play. We'll go head to head

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Speaker 1: on that this week. I'll have to come up with

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Speaker 1: some sort of wager.

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Speaker 2: What about the defensive injury? Yeah, maybe like maybe like

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Speaker 2: a hat something like that add to the collection.

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Speaker 1: What about the defensive injuries for the Ravens Because it's

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Speaker 1: with Lamar being part of the storyline here, he's going

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Speaker 1: to gobble up all the headlines. But the Ravens have

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Speaker 1: been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary

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Speaker 1: and just all around their defense. It looks like they're

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Speaker 1: getting some guys back. Is that what you're seeing as well?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, everyone's back except for some guys on a man

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Speaker 3: of Bouquets out for the year, so that's he's never

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Speaker 3: coming back. But Roquan Smith's coming back. And then their

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Speaker 3: entire secondary, which I think is top two or three

355
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Speaker 3: in the NFL. Everyone's back, Hamilton Humphrey, Aloozia, So everyone's back.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna have their full compliment on the back end.

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Speaker 3: Basically everyone practice that was available except for Lamar yesterday,

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Speaker 3: So they're gonna be signal efficantly healthier than they have

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Speaker 3: been over the past couple weeks. I just think it's

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Speaker 3: a smash spot for the Ravens. But if Lamar doesn't play,

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Speaker 3: then yeah, you're gonna have a good number. I'm just

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Speaker 3: I just think that he will. But yeah, defense will

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Speaker 3: be much healthier, so it won't be a JV defense

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Speaker 3: like they've been fielding a couple weeks. Before the bye,

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Speaker 3: so I think you get a good effort there.

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Speaker 1: We're about to take a look at Thursday Night Football

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Speaker 1: Vikings at Chargers, but first a word from our friend

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Speaker 1: Kendra as we chat about DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: Before we get the Thursday Night football Stucky last week

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Speaker 1: he gave us a dub on Tuesday Night in College.

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Speaker 1: Can we keep the good fortune rolling? Should we just

381
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Speaker 1: double back on Fiu?

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Speaker 3: I do think Ifius brought the small bet at three

383
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,760
Speaker 3: kensall has been good. But I think that they're kind

384
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Speaker 3: of peeked out in the market. So I think at

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Speaker 3: plus three FIU, who I think is a little undervalued

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Speaker 3: in the market due to the fact that they played

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Speaker 3: a couple games without a lot of key guys in

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Speaker 3: their secondary. They're now fully healthy. Their depth is really

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Speaker 3: really bad there. So yeah, Panthers in Pitbull Stadium. I

390
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Speaker 3: think we're at a small bet.

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Speaker 2: Not all right?

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Speaker 1: How about that two weeks in a row, see if

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Speaker 1: we can profit off of the FIU Panthers. Let's look

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Speaker 1: at Thursday Night Football Vikings Chargers.

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: Chargers favored by three over under, sitting at forty four

397
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Speaker 1: and a half. The Vikings quarterback situation still an unknown.

398
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz has reverted back to bad. Carson Wentz through

399
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 1: two interceptions, one of those was a pick six to

400
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Speaker 1: the Eagles.

401
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,160
Speaker 2: But the Chargers haven't been good either. They lost. They've

402
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Speaker 2: lost three of their last four.

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Speaker 1: Now we have injuries to monitor Joe alt on the

404
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 1: Chargers side, Andrew Van Ginkel on the Viking side.

405
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Speaker 2: I tend to lean towards the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: Here, as frustrating as WinCE is, and we have no

407
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Speaker 1: idea if JJ McCarthy is any good at football yet.

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Speaker 1: I just think Minnesota is the better team right now.

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Speaker 1: So this will be one of my biggest discrepancies on

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Speaker 1: the board in terms of the numbers that I make,

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Speaker 1: I think red zone issues one for six Minnesota was

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Speaker 1: last week and they had a pick six. It's swinging

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Speaker 1: some people's perception. The only issue is, and the only

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Speaker 1: reason why I haven't fired on this is that this

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Speaker 1: is a by low for both of these teams. So

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Speaker 1: I'm just not ready to slap this with the best

417
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Speaker 1: bet tag. But where do you land on Thursday night?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think at three you can only look at Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look against the Eagles. They basically mean they

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Speaker 3: give up a fourth down long bomb touchdown and threw

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Speaker 3: a pick six and then they had the I mean,

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Speaker 3: they should have covered that game. They had a touchdown

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Speaker 3: that was called back for holding, they had another touchdown

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Speaker 3: that they was reversed after a review. They were plus

425
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Speaker 3: twelve percent net success rate over the Eagles down the

426
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Speaker 3: down basis. They dominated that game. They're just a couple

427
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Speaker 3: of bombs that the Eagles hit on third and longs

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Speaker 3: and fourth downs, and then Minnesota had a snap over

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Speaker 3: their head at one point and then threw a pick six.

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Speaker 3: And we're in the red zone seven times and had

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Speaker 3: one touchdown, So they were actually really good. The Chargers

432
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Speaker 3: just got dominated. Then they have their offensive line issues.

433
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Speaker 3: Maybe Joe All comes back, but are so crippling right

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Speaker 3: now that it's hard to see them winning by margins.

435
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that the only look there is

436
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:46,160
Speaker 3: Minnesota plus three or better if this comes. I also

437
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 3: think it's a what's this total totals forty four and

438
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 3: a half should be like a lower scoring game, I

439
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: would imagine, So I also don't think, you know, if

440
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 3: this is like two and a half ish, If it

441
00:22:58,880 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 3: gets down to the two and a half by the

442
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 3: time you're listeners on Thursday, it's not a bad teaser piece.

443
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 3: If you want to tease up through three and seven,

444
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 3: pair with like Atlanta getting Atlanta down to like minus

445
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 3: one and a half against the Dolphins, I don't think

446
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 3: that's a bad teaser either. But yeah, I think it's

447
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 3: I think it's Minnesota or nothing. The Chargers right now,

448
00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 3: their offensive line is basically just their offense is broken,

449
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: and it's hard to see them pulling away from a

450
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 3: game Minnesota team with Brian Flores. If you have a

451
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 3: beat up offensive line playing that Minnesota defense, it's not

452
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 3: going to be a walk in the park. So I

453
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: think it's Minnesota or nothing.

454
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 1: I just psychologically have a really hard time pulling. I

455
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: love betting teasers. I usually have two going into any

456
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 1: weekend in the NFL, and I've been doing really well

457
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: with them this year, But Thursday night teasers frustrate me

458
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 1: to no end, because if you don't hit the Thursday

459
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: night leg, then you just have this great number sitting

460
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: out there on Sunday that means absolutely nothing. Some of

461
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 1: the others, since you mentioned some possible legs to a

462
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 1: teaser forty nine ers up to seven and a half,

463
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: I like what you said about the Falcons down to one,

464
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 1: the Saints up to ten and a half against the

465
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: beat up Bucks team in the division, and the Cowboys

466
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 1: up to nine against the Broncos. That has close game

467
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: written all over it. Those are some others that I

468
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: think we could look out there and yeah.

469
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 3: That's talk with this a lot of our actioncocust generally speaking,

470
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: I mean, you want to get the would I would

471
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 3: try to get minus I would normally only try to

472
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,840
Speaker 3: go through three and seven, and that's and then the

473
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: lower the total the better. Obviously, if you have like

474
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 3: a really high total of like fifty five, then you

475
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 3: know points getting those six points is in as valuable

476
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 3: as say, if you had a total of forty one,

477
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 3: So the lower the total the better. And then if

478
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 3: you can go through three and seven, which are the

479
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 3: two most key numbers when it comes to football betting,

480
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 3: that's your ideal long teaser on both ends. Now, there

481
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: are exceptions to the rule, and everyone has a little

482
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: bit of art to the to their own teaser making,

483
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 3: but those are the general rules that you want to

484
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: follow for the most part. If you go back and

485
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 3: do the math, historically that that's that's the best way

486
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 3: to go. But I think my favorite one of the

487
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: weekend would be charge if the charters are like two

488
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 3: and a half, teasing them up, excuse me, if the

489
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 3: vikings are at two and a half, teasing them up

490
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 3: eight and a half, pairing them with the falcons both

491
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: totals under forty five points.

492
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: I tend to limit myself to to two legs. Are

493
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: you of the same mindset? Don't go past two with

494
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 1: the teasers.

495
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 3: There's some there, There's an argument to me, and it

496
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: all comes down to price. So there are times for

497
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 3: a three team teaser can make sense, but that's a

498
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 3: conversation for another day. But I generally just two team,

499
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: two teams six point teaser. There was a time when

500
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 3: you used to be able to get them, like how

501
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:01,959
Speaker 3: you had a place one time where I could get

502
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 3: them plus one ten and then for a while two team, yep,

503
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 3: then plus one hundred for a while. That is no longer,

504
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 3: no longer a thing.

505
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: Minus one twenty five is about the best that I

506
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: can find out there.

507
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 2: These days you.

508
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: Still get minus one twenties are out there DraftKings, I

509
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 3: think it or minus one thirty five. Some of them

510
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 3: are dynamic. But yeah, there was a time you can

511
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 3: get plus money on them. All good things must come

512
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: to an end.

513
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 1: Well, it is time to plant our flag presented by

514
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: draft Kings of the Crown is yours?

515
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: It shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.

516
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,879
Speaker 2: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that thing.

517
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: I have a feeling I know where you're going, Stucky.

518
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 1: Would you like to make another case for the Baltimore

519
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: Ravens minus the points here?

520
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 3: No, my case, it's my team wrong before, But my

521
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 3: track record it's pretty good on the Ravens. I think

522
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 3: it's just the smashpot Bears have been extremely fortunate with turnovers.

523
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 3: If Lamar plays I don't see much resistance that these

524
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 3: Bears defense will provide, and I think the Ravens defense

525
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,240
Speaker 3: will look a lot healthier. Harball will lead off the

526
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 3: buy and yeah, I think this has a bloodbath rotten

527
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: all over it. Assuming Jackson place, that's the big mystery.

528
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 3: But I think this line should be above a touchdown

529
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: if he does well.

530
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: If you like Stucky's side on this, just know that

531
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 1: every time we've gone head to head, it's either been

532
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:34,959
Speaker 1: a draw or I've lost.

533
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 2: So perhaps well, I definitely do.

534
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: That's what what do doesn't mean anything got to come

535
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 1: through with the win. I like the Steelers Sunday Night

536
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: Football plus three. That's where I will plant my flag.

537
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 1: I love this spot for Pittsburgh ten days to prepare

538
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: Green Bay off of a Western time Zone road game

539
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: heading over to Pennsylvania. The Packers have not looked dominant

540
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: as of late. And then of course you have the

541
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers aspect to this. He's going to be extra

542
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 1: dialed in for this one. This is the first time

543
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: he's ever played against the Green Bay Packers, and I

544
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: love the way their offense looks.

545
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: Rogers is pushing the ball down the field all of

546
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 2: a sudden.

547
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,959
Speaker 1: That's the more trustworthy unit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but

548
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: you also have Mike Tomlin as a dog one of

549
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: the more tried and true trends that's out there.

550
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 2: Just a lot to like.

551
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: I like sitting with that plus three in pocket before

552
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: we get the Sunday.

553
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind this one. I mean it's a

554
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 3: classic Tomlin Rauros spot, catching points at home against a

555
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 3: good team. Generally speaking, in the past, his teams have

556
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 3: performed very well in this spot and Rogers is gonna

557
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 3: get rid of the ball quick here neutralized. I mean,

558
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: we saw that when the Steelers played the Vikings. When

559
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 3: the Steelers played the Browns, who have elite pass rushers,

560
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 3: Packers do as well. Rogers get rid of the ball

561
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 3: very very quick, neutral eye that pass rush, and I

562
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 3: think that there'll be some opportunities for the Steelers to

563
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 3: move the ball. It's a tough spot, as you mentioned,

564
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 3: classic raw Ros spot for Tomlins, so I think taking

565
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: the three there makes sense.

566
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: That plus three minus one oh two.

567
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 1: Right now on DraftKings as we speak to recap our

568
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: plant the flag games for this week, we don't have

569
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 1: one from Kendra, but we will get an official leg

570
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: for our two Kings and a Queen parley coming up

571
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: on Thursday, but our plant.

572
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: The Flag games for this week.

573
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: Stucky has the Ravens minus six and a half against Chicago.

574
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 1: I have the Steelers plus three against the Green Bay

575
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: Packers on Sunday night football. Now is time for the

576
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: main event. No betting week can start without it. Is

577
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: the primer courtesy of Evan Abrams. Go check out his

578
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: article at actionnetwork dot com. Evan, Welcome to the show.

579
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: Are you betting the NBA tonight?

580
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 6: I was gonna say Happy NBA Day everybody. I mean

581
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 6: a little bit. I'll dabble here and there. It's not

582
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 6: my top sport, you know, no question about it. But

583
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 6: I know what's going on. I follow here and there.

584
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 6: Good friend Matt Moore, you, I'll listen to buckets. We'll

585
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 6: get it done.

586
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: Okay, let's dig into this. I think we'll start with

587
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: the Ravens Bears. It's been the hottest topic of the

588
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: show today. Lamar, if he does return, just off of

589
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: memory for me, has a very good history against the NFC.

590
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: What do you have on that?

591
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, really good history against the NFC. But to be

592
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 6: honest with you, it hasn't been great lately. I mean

593
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 6: when you look at the numbers, I believe they've lost

594
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 6: a few overall. They lost to Detroit a little while

595
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 6: ago as well, I believe, so to me, some of

596
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 6: those numbers have kind of come back to the mean

597
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,160
Speaker 6: a little bit. I mean, he was twenty three and

598
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 6: one first twenty four versus NFC since then losing to

599
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 6: Philly and Detroit, so numbers are there, but.

600
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 4: To me, it's you know, turned a little bit.

601
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 6: The one number I was going to look into this

602
00:30:55,560 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 6: week is coaches facing Lamar for the first time, which

603
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 6: I will probably have in my article, which is pretty terrible.

604
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 6: Usually when they first see him, it's a little bit difficult.

605
00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 6: Obviously he's got to be out there to play, but

606
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 6: a little bit difficult. Nonetheless, I believe he's like, you know,

607
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 6: thirty eight and eleven or something like something crazy, So

608
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 6: that'll be in there as well.

609
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 4: But I think that's one part of it. He's a

610
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 4: very very difficult to game plan for.

611
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: Uh jule Off.

612
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 3: The buyer Harbay extra Prep. Do you have that in

613
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 3: there this week?

614
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 4: Yeah?

615
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 6: So if you look at the Ravens off a buyer

616
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 6: to Harbaugh fourteen and three straight up in the regular season,

617
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 6: three and one in the playoffs, so pretty good. Lamar

618
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 6: seven and two in his nine starts off of bye week,

619
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 6: so good stuff, but kind of baked into the number

620
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 6: a little bit.

621
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 4: It's just like ten and seven things like that. Raven

622
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 4: is usually a favorite.

623
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: I will say that the By the way, there's other

624
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 3: quarterback news to watch, which is like Bryce Young, Jane Daniels.

625
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 3: Am I missing anybody else that's questionable this week?

626
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 2: Well, I'm party, but I'm not.

627
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 3: Sure Prety, Yeah, the sand Feran news. But I will

628
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 3: just say this, if you're thinking about betting the Ravens

629
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 3: Bears game, like tomorrow is the big day. That's all

630
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 3: I'll say. Now, even if he doesn't practice, Thursday is

631
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 3: like a huge day. But today and yesterday as a

632
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: Ravens fan and knowing just the cadence of their practice

633
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 3: and how they handle these things, it doesn't mean anything.

634
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 3: Doesn't mean he's gonna play. But I'll just tell you

635
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 3: that if he doesn't practice today, it doesn't mean anything.

636
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: Tomorrow big, Thursday huge. But I've seen Lamar in the

637
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: past with an injury doesn't practice until Friday, the plays,

638
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 3: But tomorrow is meaningless to me. Tomorrow will be the

639
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 3: first like read on what's going on. But I digress.

640
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 1: You mentioned Andy Dalton. What is Andy Dalton's record as

641
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,479
Speaker 1: a starter against the spread?

642
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: Do we have that in the article this week?

643
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 4: I could pull it in a few minutes.

644
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,960
Speaker 6: The way I was looking at this situation was just

645
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 6: kind of comparing the two quarterbacks.

646
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 4: I mean, at least from one standpoint. I mean, Dalton's

647
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 4: been pretty bad since twenty three, one.

648
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,959
Speaker 6: In five straight up one and five against the spread,

649
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 6: losing by about eight points per game on the margin ats.

650
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 2: I feel like that's the relevant number two.

651
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 1: I'm not that concerned with his career, because it's just

652
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: that at that point we're stretching into a sample that's

653
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: not relevant, correct.

654
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 6: But to me, the interesting part is, I don't think

655
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 6: it's a shock to anybody that's watched both these quarterbacks

656
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 6: play like Dalton's been better. He's about seventeen spots better

657
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 6: EP eighth per play and eight to ten spots better

658
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 6: in success rate versus Bryce Young.

659
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 4: In that span.

660
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 6: So record showing one thing, but I think Dalton's actually

661
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 6: kind of played better and been more consistent. But we

662
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 6: will see based off the scenario this week.

663
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: Right now, that game, by the way, for the Bills.

664
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 1: The Bill's favored by seven and a half against the

665
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, so the Panthers will be getting a couple

666
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,800
Speaker 1: of extra points with Bryce Young not playing in that game.

667
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: We also have a double digit spread in the Colts

668
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: Titans game. Cults favored by fourteen against the Titans. I'm

669
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 1: sure there's value on Tennessee. It doesn't matter, they never

670
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,040
Speaker 1: come through on it. But multi touchdown favorites in division,

671
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:24,959
Speaker 1: what about that?

672
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 4: I mean, we just saw the Chiefs do it. Yeah,

673
00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: we just saw the Chiefs do it and they won

674
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:30,800
Speaker 4: thirty one nothing.

675
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 6: So I wouldn't say you should be running to the

676
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 6: window to bet Tennessee. But yeah, like the number over

677
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 6: the last twenty years faves and division above ten points,

678
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 6: forty five point nine percent, it's a really really small

679
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 6: tight spaces. The one thing I will say, November or

680
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 6: earlier with those numbers.

681
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 4: Forty three percent, forty three.

682
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 6: And fifty seven against the spread, so gets you know,

683
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 6: it gets a little bit better. But to me, this

684
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 6: has got to be a play on a different level.

685
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 6: I'll just give you one of my favorite facts from

686
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 6: the week, so Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations.

687
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 6: Colts six and one straight up this season after entering

688
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 6: the year with a regular season win total of just

689
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,359
Speaker 6: seven and a half. The only recent example dating back

690
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 6: to start of the twenty fifteenth season of a team

691
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 6: starting six and one with a win total below eight

692
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 6: the Giants in twenty twenty two, who started six and one,

693
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 6: of course with Daniel Jones. So Daniel Jones done it.

694
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 6: Two separate teams, quick starts, low win totals, just overcoming expectations.

695
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 6: But yeah, Colts minus fourteen in this game at the moment,

696
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 6: just kind of hard to look either way based off

697
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 6: of what they've done.

698
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 4: Especially Colts ats margin up to.

699
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 6: Like eleven points per game, highest we've seen since the

700
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 6: twenty one Cardinals.

701
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 4: So just a wild start.

702
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: Colts team total over might be a look with if

703
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: Simmons is out for the Tennessee Titans, I might play

704
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 1: it that way, but we'll see what that looks like. Stucky,

705
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 1: you have anything else. That's all of the notes that

706
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:55,280
Speaker 1: I had for Evan.

707
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 3: Panthers defense has quietly been very very good. I think

708
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: they're up to like third and success right the run

709
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 3: Dye has been dominant. I'm curious to see if Buffalo

710
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 3: comes out out of the by and lets Alan cook

711
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: instead of trying to run, which I think they've been

712
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 3: doing a little too much so far this season. So

713
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: I'm curious to see how the Bills approach their offensive

714
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 3: game plan out of the buy let me look, I mean, yeah,

715
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 3: I'm I show some value in the Titans. Am I

716
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 3: going to get Simmons? Is obviously huge? Am I going

717
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 3: to get there? I don't know. I'm tired of losing

718
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 3: money on the Titans.

719
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 4: That's the best thing I'll say, stuck is the look

720
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 4: ahead on that game, like three season look ahead was

721
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 4: three and a half.

722
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 6: So if you just want to talk about the differences

723
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 6: in the two teams, that is one crazy one.

724
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that the Colts just keep covering like

725
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:52,919
Speaker 3: it's it's pretty insane. I mean the Jets. I show

726
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 3: value in the Jets. I mean the Bengals are approaching

727
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 3: a touchdown favorite with.

728
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: They're up to seven right now on DraftKings. This was

729
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: six and a half yesterday.

730
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 3: Like now we have to see that's another quarterback. They

731
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 3: another quarterback storyline Fields or Tyro Taylor if Tyron Taylor

732
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:16,760
Speaker 3: plays and we have to watch Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner.

733
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 3: Not having Sauce Gardner might hurt against Chase Nickots. But

734
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 3: like Flacco is not a good quarter. I had a

735
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 3: good he had a good day, but I mean, he's washed.

736
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 3: This is the worst offensive line in the NFL, or

737
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 3: one of them arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

738
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 3: Like you're gonna tell me the Jets with if it's Tyrod,

739
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I think Rod's an upgrade ever fields at

740
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 3: this point, if like especially if Wilson is there an

741
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 3: update on Garrett Wilson, I don't know if there is one.

742
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 2: He's questionable.

743
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 3: Wilson and Taylor play like this is the number rat

744
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 3: Like I took the Jets plus seven seven and a

745
00:37:54,840 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 3: half at Tampa, Like this is the number at home

746
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:05,920
Speaker 3: against the Bills, and like they're gonna be catching this

747
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 3: at Cincinnati with Joe Flacco, no offensive line and zero defense,

748
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 3: Like even the Jets might be able to move, Like

749
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,240
Speaker 3: the Jets should be able to move the ball. Everyone

750
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: can move the ball, like you can just hand it

751
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 3: off and you're gonna be able to like since he

752
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 3: has no resistance, but who's playing quarterback. Garrett Wilson. Obviously

753
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,879
Speaker 3: he's important. Otherwise you're just your thermy to the throw

754
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 3: in too, like Josh Reynolds every play, and then Sauce

755
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 3: Garner is obviously big for this particular matchup. But this

756
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 3: is getting a little rich for Cincinnati, who was like

757
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 3: two weeks ago, you know, catching two touchdowns. Now they're

758
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 3: favored by a touchdown over team. I get the Jets

759
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 3: are winn us, but I mean they've cut their three

760
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: and four or four. Both these teams are the same

761
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 3: against the spread record, so that one's getting a little

762
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: up there. Man, there's some bad football teams. This just

763
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 3: look back at this past weekend. There was like two

764
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: good games like Vikings Eagles and then the end of

765
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 3: the Giants. That game sucked for the entire game quarter

766
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 3: and then what was the other like really watchable game

767
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 3: like Packers Cardinals, Like that was pretty much it. There's

768
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 3: so many bad teams.

769
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: The one o'clock window was one of the worst that

770
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 1: you'll that you'll ever see.

771
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 3: Trying to sell like sell the witching iron. He was like, well, okay, well,

772
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 3: nothing's one possession game now. So a lot of the

773
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 3: injury stuff I have a lot more on Thursday. We'll

774
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,800
Speaker 3: have some of our Action Network podcast that we record tomorrow.

775
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 3: I got to go through a lot of these matchups

776
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 3: and injuries. Ones that stuck out to me that I

777
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 3: just wrote down were the Jets depending on their injuries,

778
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 3: the Ravens that's obviously it's my plant the flag. Possibly

779
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 3: the Texans but need injury info. So there's a lot

780
00:39:56,480 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 3: of There's a lot of injury and quarterback info this week,

781
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 3: which makes a little tougher, especially this early in the week.

782
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,680
Speaker 3: So there was no like slam dunk spots or games

783
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 3: that I do like your the Steelers call out that

784
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 3: was one, But other than that, now I got nothing.

785
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: What about the Broncos and the Cowboys.

786
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: These are two teams that I think were I think

787
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 1: they're both coming into this game overvalued. It's kind of

788
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,879
Speaker 1: the opposite of Thursday Night Football, where you have two

789
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: by lows with the Vikings and the Chargers, and I

790
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: think those are two sell high teams that I think

791
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 1: I want to be on Denver, but I.

792
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 3: Don't like betting Denver as a favorite, Like you need

793
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 3: bow Knicks to win by margin, and he's just not

794
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:41,280
Speaker 3: playing well, like he'll have he has flashes, Like against

795
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 3: the pre event of the Giants, he came back. They

796
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 3: put up but they had zero points to three quarters

797
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 3: against the Giants defense at home. This is the team

798
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 3: that barely beat the Jets the week before. So I

799
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 3: just don't want to like points them. Am I running

800
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 3: to bet the Cowboys? I mean they were offense, Like

801
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 3: if you give me three and a half flat, I

802
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 3: could only look at the Cowboys just their offense is

803
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 3: playing so well. You got the much better quarterback, certain

804
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 3: can only take out one of those receivers. But I

805
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 3: mean the Cowboys defense is really bad. But there's no

806
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 3: reason why, Like bow Knicks is gonna get stops. He

807
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 3: stops himself, and like there's no reason why Dak and

808
00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 3: this offense the way that they're rolling, can't put up

809
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 3: enough points to cover. But three is probably the right number,

810
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 3: so it should be an entertaining game. But I just

811
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,240
Speaker 3: don't like blank points, especially you know, over a field

812
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 3: goal with with bow Knicks in that offense.

813
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I might take the cow I think

814
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 1: the Cowboys are a perfect teaser leg for this week.

815
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 2: I might just play it that way. Evan, thanks so much.

816
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for today's episode special thanks to

817
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 1: David Payne and Gifford Gould, our producers. Phenomenal stuff by Stuckey,

818
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 1: and we will get a pick from Kendrick who's in Scotland.

819
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 1: We'll get a pick from her. On Thursday, we'll do

820
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: our official Week eight best Bets, unveiling this week's two

821
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 1: Kings and a Queen parlay. We'll see you next time

822
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: here on the Favorites presented by DraftKings, We're out.

823
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

824
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

825
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

826
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler