WEBVTT - Live in the Moment. Mike Lyons Talks to Armstrong & Getty 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:02.920 Let's bring in Mike Lyons, military analysts that we love 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:07.840 talking to since unfortunately, um, since this conflict began, we've 0:00:07.880 --> 0:00:10.640 had to talk to him a lot. But Mike served 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.240 with various military organizations both the United States and Europe 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:19.280 throughout his career, commanded in Operation Desert Storm and Desert Shield. 0:00:21.200 --> 0:00:25.280 Received a Bronze Star for his actions in combat West Point. 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:27.800 It's got plenty of credentials. See him on CNN and 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:29.880 various other places all the time. Mike, Welcome back to 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.519 the Armstrong and Getty Show. Hey, Jack, thanks so much 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:34.640 for hand me back. By the way, some of the reporting, 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:36.800 uh I, I keep talking about what a great job 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:38.839 CNN is doing, but a lot of a lot of 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.000 the journalism out there is just great around this story, 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:44.040 and it's one of the you know, it's one of 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:45.800 the stories of our time, no doubt about it. Where 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:47.640 where do you see things currently? Where We were just 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.680 talking to David Ignatius of the Washington Post. He feels 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.320 like a phase one has ended, in a phase two 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:55.880 is beginning. How do how do you see this? Yeah, 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:58.080 that's probably a good way to put it. The Battle 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:02.959 of Kiva is over, with Russia being defeated by first 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:07.600 a Ukraine maneuver force and then by Ukraine guerrilla force 0:01:07.680 --> 0:01:11.360 that actually ejected them from land that Russia took. You know, 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:14.240 I can't look in history and see many times when 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:17.319 the defenders have done that without adding more troops, without 0:01:17.360 --> 0:01:20.640 repositioning more troops, and not getting any help other than 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:23.920 the equipment that's poured in from the West that's come 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.800 the javelins and those combat multipliers that story just had 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:29.880 on the drones is is phenomenal. And the fact that 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.440 they're able to synchronize fires as we call it in 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:35.360 the in the field artillery. Um, you look every day 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.240 and see the pictures of the nation that's taking place 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.960 between real time intelligence that we're providing them. We're not 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:43.560 talking about that a lot, but we're providing them real 0:01:43.600 --> 0:01:46.160 time intelligence to where those Russian troops. So I think 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:47.480 that's why I think we talked about that's one of 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.440 those general officers are getting killed because we're telling them, hey, 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.320 look guess what, there's a general officer here, you know, 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.400 could kind of go after them. So so I do 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:56.200 think it's now based too where they're gonna try to 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.600 reposition all these forces now. But they've got to take 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.080 what's called exterior lines. That means is they gotta go 0:02:01.120 --> 0:02:03.720 all the way around. They gotta travel about fifteen hundred 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:06.440 or so kilometers around to get to this new battlefield, 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:07.760 which is going to be the east in the dome 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.959 Bass region, and ukrain Or repositionist forces and start the 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.520 counter attacks already, So Russia doesn't have any momentum. They 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:17.799 likely lose that as well. And mary Pole still hasn't fallen, 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.880 so I can't get over house. So probably the Ukraine 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:25.440 military is performed. So the atrocities that we've all seen, 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.440 the pictures, the videos, the things you read about what 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.160 happened in these towns over the last six weeks. Yeah, 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:36.520 while the Russians occupied them. Is this an undisciplined, out 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.720 of control military full of thugs or was this the 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:43.200 plan from the beginning? You know, we talked about this 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:45.160 a couple of weeks ago, and I said from the 0:02:45.240 --> 0:02:48.440 very beginning that this will turn on what the Russian 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:51.200 soldier does at the private level, at the lowest level 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:54.280 of the execution phase of the Russian military, what they 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:58.040 do when they are faced with Ukraine citizens and civilians 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.480 and non combatants. And um, there was a side. To me, 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:03.600 that was just kind of helping that we weren't going 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.080 to see what we ended up seeing. It reflects frankly, 0:03:07.120 --> 0:03:09.800 and this is gonna sound really terrible, but it reflects 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:12.839 Russian culture unfortunately. And and we would do the same 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.680 for us, we'd project, you know, are the military reflects 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.120 the society that it's from. It's just that simple, which 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.440 where we get the soldiers from. And I'm afraid now 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.320 the Russian culture and Russian people are are staying now 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:28.360 with the the performance of their military. Now, you know, 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:30.560 part of the playbook. That's the most overused term right now, 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.280 the Putin playbook and all that goes with that. But 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:36.120 but but for whatever reason, this is how the Russian 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:38.200 military on the ground fights. That's the first time it's 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.920 it's it's nineteenth century tactics. It's what happens back that's 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.320 what Russia has done before and every war they've ever 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:47.080 been involved with when they tried to conquer another another country. 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:49.240 We just maybe didn't think it was gonna happen now, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.560 but it did, and um, it just just not change. 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.280 And I'm sorry, but it reflects poorly on Russian culture. Yeah, 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:58.160 it is amazing Historically Putin's doing the same thing Stalin did, 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.440 who did the same thing. The Tzars be for him. 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:05.480 It's just absolutely amazing, right, Um, it got everybody, It 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:08.320 got everybody's attention. When General Milly said this is going 0:04:08.400 --> 0:04:11.920 to be measured in years, and he said possibly not decades, 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:16.640 but years. So I don't think any of us workspect 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:19.720 in that. So what does this look like for years? 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:23.000 So so now we're gonna look at this. So deep 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.920 down the United States wants the Russian army destroyed in Ukraine, 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.160 and that's why we're pouring the weapons that we're doing 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:31.000 in and Russia is doing a pretty good job of 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.840 getting itself destroyed in Ukraine. Still a regional conflict, we 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:37.120 have to look at it that way. Still can't get involved. 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:41.279 Let's hope Pluton doesn't expand it doesn't attack NATO, doesn't, 0:04:41.440 --> 0:04:44.160 you know, go in such a way that forces us 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:47.800 to respond. But it likely goes months because he has 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.560 the people in the mass. He's got these these battalion 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:52.680 tactical groups was what they're called, and how they fight, 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:55.080 and you know, he brought about a hundred and twenty 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:56.880 of them or so to the battlefield and still got 0:04:56.880 --> 0:05:00.279 about eight years so left, and he's repositioning all in 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.359 this dome best region where he's gonna out number the 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.800 Ukraine military, um maybe two or three to one. Still 0:05:06.040 --> 0:05:09.200 so um, again, it's just gonna see how well the 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:11.800 Ukraine military fights and how they defend and what they 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:14.040 can do. I think this is like the abb Is 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:15.920 really war from the nineteen seventy three and that it 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:17.919 had two basically two fronts in the north and in 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.159 the south, and the same thing that happened there. Um 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:22.359 and after these railities, you know, kind of win in 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:24.159 the north and then focused in the south. And that's 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.440 really what I think could happen here as well. And 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:28.760 there'll be this trade off for land for peace, and 0:05:28.800 --> 0:05:31.960 the Ukraine border likely gets redrawn. But if Ukrank can 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:34.719 keep Odessa the lost Crimea, that's gone right, we all 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.440 agree with that. But if they could keep Odessa, that 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:39.080 keeps that warm water port, they have something. Um. But 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:41.520 Mary Poles is probably the last thing that the Russians 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:42.599 are going to go for, and they have to have 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:45.320 it if they want to declare any kind of strategic victory. 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:49.120 So Secretary of State Blincoln said yesterday that we are 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:53.159 providing or they will soon have uh ten anti tank 0:05:53.279 --> 0:05:56.800 systems for every Russian tank. You're the only person I've 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.680 heard explain the whole tank to me that losing tanks 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:03.279 isn't a thing, and Russia has lost a lot of 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.599 tanks and now they're there's gonna be ten systems for 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.000 taking out tanks for every tank that exists. So you 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.679 know that's gotta be good news for the Ukrainians. Yeah, 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.440 and that those things take out things more than tanks. 0:06:14.480 --> 0:06:18.440 They blow up buildings, they they destroy bunkers, they do 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:21.000 things that that that uh and they do it in 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.279 a way their heat seeking, their fir and forget there. 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:25.920 They're high. They're the kind of technology that we brought 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.200 to the battlefield that's making a difference. That all wars 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:30.920 have these kinds of things that make a difference. Right, 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:33.640 Desert Storm had GPS systems that the fact that got 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:35.080 us to the right spot at the right time, and 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:39.520 MLR as multiple loft rocket systems that allow deep interdicting fires. 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:42.880 In this war, it's these drone technologies to switch blade. 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.559 You're seeing the fact that the stingers are still keeping 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:48.279 the skies open, the fact that the skies are still 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.560 uh contested and no no one really has their superiority there. 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:53.919 But these Javlins, those last things are just tearing the 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.520 tops off those tanks and the BMPs, and they're causing 0:06:56.600 --> 0:07:00.359 Russians to to surrender really in mass. And and the 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.240 fact of the matter is we aren't just flying one 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:03.880 for one. We're firing five or six at one tank. 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:08.880 We're making sure that tank dies. So the um A 0:07:09.000 --> 0:07:13.280 spokesman for Zelinsky said yesterday, I need I need three things, weapons, weapons, 0:07:13.320 --> 0:07:17.720 and weapons. The public in the United States, according to polls, 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:21.200 is all four giving them more. Should we be giving more? 0:07:21.280 --> 0:07:23.440 What would more look like? I just found out that 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.880 even though we've we've given Ukraine a billion dollars worth 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:30.120 in the last six weeks, we're pumping in nine billion 0:07:30.200 --> 0:07:34.600 a month in Iraq at the time. Right, so we 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:37.640 were able to do kind of the heavy crew related 0:07:37.640 --> 0:07:39.840 equipment interact, but we can't really do that here. I 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:42.680 don't know how it gets there. You see the Czech 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.240 Republic trying to give a pc s all Soviet made 0:07:45.240 --> 0:07:48.960 because it's too difficult to now train Ukraine troops on 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:52.880 ABRAMS tanks or US based equipment. We've got countries in 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.240 data that have the same kind of equipment Ukraine does. 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.440 If we're gonna give anything, that's where it's got to 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:59.920 come from. We have this. The MiGs are all the 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:01.440 time people said, oh, let's get them the MiGs, and 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:03.239 I see where we go from there again, too hard, 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:06.360 you gotta they'll fly in, They've gotta park them, you've 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.760 gotta realm them, refuel them. I'm not sure they're going 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:11.480 to be difference makers. The difference makers are those javelins. 0:08:11.520 --> 0:08:14.520 The different makers are the individual weapons systems that are 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.600 easy to use. Um, they're easy to train on that 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:20.240 that they've We've got so many in there now, I 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:22.360 am a little bit concerned that we're actually sending too 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.960 many there because those stingers, so I think we've talked 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.200 about two those stingers are weapons of mass destruction if 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:28.840 they find their way back to the United States. You know, 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.520 those are those are not They're in the playbox right now. 0:08:31.720 --> 0:08:34.640 They're in the playpen of the Ukraine government there. But 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:36.960 the bottom line is those those get in the wrong 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:38.959 hands and those become you know, weapons of they could 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:40.920 shoot down commercial aircraft and things like that. We've gotta 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:42.560 be really careful about some of the weapons. We also 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.840 provide there and make sure those accountability for them. Interesting 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:47.880 one final question. I've been trying to figure out how 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:51.920 to ask this, So I was looking at the picture 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:54.560 of there was a side by side thing floating around 0:08:54.600 --> 0:08:57.480 on social media a couple of days ago when Zelinski 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:01.200 went and visited one of those towns where all the 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.280 horror happened. And the look on his face and just 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:07.120 his face in general, compared to what he looked like 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:09.680 six weeks ago. I mean, the guy has aged ten 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:13.079 years in six weeks. And how do you blame how 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:16.080 do you for those of us have never been around 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.120 this such a horror? How do you keep your what 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:22.840 do you focus on to keep your your your your here, 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.880 your humanity, to keep from going crazy, to keep from 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:29.760 questioning everything when you see this sort of stuff. Yeah, 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.200 that's a great question. And you know, I prepared to 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:33.720 go to war my whole adult life, you know, at 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.679 the West Point, and I read books and I trained hard. 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.800 And here's a guy that gets thrust into that environment. 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:41.760 He's a comedian, he's a movie star, and all the 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:45.160 other things before he gets that spot. But he's quickly 0:09:45.240 --> 0:09:47.240 learned that number One, you have to live in a 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:49.280 moment and you said, live right there, right at that 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:51.959 point in time, make a decision based on your instinct. 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.480 He has great instinct. I think that's from what he's demonstrated. 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:57.760 But then the second thing, he's got to be able 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.480 to compartmentalize. He's got to really look at something and 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.280 not get too emotional about it, keep his emotions so 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.400 in check. Um. I can tell you again, being in combat, 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:08.480 you see things that you have to look once. You 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:10.120 look twice and say, Okay, I gotta keep going, I 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:12.520 gotta move forward. And I look at that guy and 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:14.160 he just gets up every day. You know, I'm a 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:17.200 little bit feel better now about keeping about his safety. 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:18.720 There was a time when we were getting up every 0:10:18.760 --> 0:10:20.199 day thinking about whether or not he was going to 0:10:20.280 --> 0:10:22.960 survive the night. But um, but I think he's gonna 0:10:22.960 --> 0:10:25.199 be okay. And I think he's gonna he's gonna emerge 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:28.079 as a real leader. Um and I think it's gonna 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:30.400 you know, he's he's gonna be getting a Nobel Peace prizes, 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.079 lots of things that are gonna be good to come 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:34.280 his way. He's just got to maintain it. But but 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:37.000 he was thrust onto it. And when people are trust 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.400 into the greatness they sometimes perform, and he's done superbly. 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:42.200 This fact I think will be lost to history. But 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.480 our government told him to leave before it started, and 0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:48.840 he said, I ain't going. Man. What a decision that 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:51.280 turned out to be for the history of his country 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.880 and maybe there for the history of the world. Yeah, no, 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:58.080 absolutely if he had done that. And we're we're we've become, unfortunately, 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.000 the risk averse. You know, we're the super power that's 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.160 risk averse. And you know, I get it. I still 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:04.160 don't want to push them too far. I think the 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.440 administration has pretty much played this the way they needed 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:08.960 to played it, and there's not you know, this is 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:10.760 telling us we have to fix this in the future, 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:12.679 and we can't fix it now. We just have to 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:14.480 get the combat to stop. We have to get the 0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:16.839 shooting to stop. But we've got to realize that we've 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.000 got here because the thirty years of bad foreign policy 0:11:19.040 --> 0:11:21.520 and and then then in the moment, we've become risk 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:25.160 averse and and almost psychologically disarmed. And I think that's, uh, 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:27.840 that's unfortunate, and that's that's that is a bad reflection 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.360 of this administration. Frankly, Mike Clients, thanks for your time. 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.520 I love your work everywhere I see you. Your Twitter 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.160 uh feet is good to follow and thanks for coming 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:41.520 on today. Thanks Jack anytime. Thanks to One More Thing 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:45.880 podcast Jack. This is roughly the equivalent of carrying around 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.720 two and twenty four slices of bacon in your body. 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.319 Well wait, wait a minute, regular, what bacon ways of 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:58.360 majument that we all use the Armstrong and Getting podcast. 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:00.880 Cheer it on the I Heart app, wherever you listen 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:01.679 to podcasts.