Speaker 1: Let's bring in Mike Lyons, military analysts that we love
Speaker 1: talking to since unfortunately, um, since this conflict began, we've
Speaker 1: had to talk to him a lot. But Mike served
Speaker 1: with various military organizations both the United States and Europe
Speaker 1: throughout his career, commanded in Operation Desert Storm and Desert Shield.
Speaker 1: Received a Bronze Star for his actions in combat West Point.
Speaker 1: It's got plenty of credentials. See him on CNN and
Speaker 1: various other places all the time. Mike, Welcome back to
Speaker 1: the Armstrong and Getty Show. Hey, Jack, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for hand me back. By the way, some of the reporting,
Speaker 1: uh I, I keep talking about what a great job
Speaker 1: CNN is doing, but a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: the journalism out there is just great around this story,
Speaker 1: and it's one of the you know, it's one of
Speaker 1: the stories of our time, no doubt about it. Where
Speaker 1: where do you see things currently? Where We were just
Speaker 1: talking to David Ignatius of the Washington Post. He feels
Speaker 1: like a phase one has ended, in a phase two
Speaker 1: is beginning. How do how do you see this? Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's probably a good way to put it. The Battle
Speaker 1: of Kiva is over, with Russia being defeated by first
Speaker 1: a Ukraine maneuver force and then by Ukraine guerrilla force
Speaker 1: that actually ejected them from land that Russia took. You know,
Speaker 1: I can't look in history and see many times when
Speaker 1: the defenders have done that without adding more troops, without
Speaker 1: repositioning more troops, and not getting any help other than
Speaker 1: the equipment that's poured in from the West that's come
Speaker 1: the javelins and those combat multipliers that story just had
Speaker 1: on the drones is is phenomenal. And the fact that
Speaker 1: they're able to synchronize fires as we call it in
Speaker 1: the in the field artillery. Um, you look every day
Speaker 1: and see the pictures of the nation that's taking place
Speaker 1: between real time intelligence that we're providing them. We're not
Speaker 1: talking about that a lot, but we're providing them real
Speaker 1: time intelligence to where those Russian troops. So I think
Speaker 1: that's why I think we talked about that's one of
Speaker 1: those general officers are getting killed because we're telling them, hey,
Speaker 1: look guess what, there's a general officer here, you know,
Speaker 1: could kind of go after them. So so I do
Speaker 1: think it's now based too where they're gonna try to
Speaker 1: reposition all these forces now. But they've got to take
Speaker 1: what's called exterior lines. That means is they gotta go
Speaker 1: all the way around. They gotta travel about fifteen hundred
Speaker 1: or so kilometers around to get to this new battlefield,
Speaker 1: which is going to be the east in the dome
Speaker 1: Bass region, and ukrain Or repositionist forces and start the
Speaker 1: counter attacks already, So Russia doesn't have any momentum. They
Speaker 1: likely lose that as well. And mary Pole still hasn't fallen,
Speaker 1: so I can't get over house. So probably the Ukraine
Speaker 1: military is performed. So the atrocities that we've all seen,
Speaker 1: the pictures, the videos, the things you read about what
Speaker 1: happened in these towns over the last six weeks. Yeah,
Speaker 1: while the Russians occupied them. Is this an undisciplined, out
Speaker 1: of control military full of thugs or was this the
Speaker 1: plan from the beginning? You know, we talked about this
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago, and I said from the
Speaker 1: very beginning that this will turn on what the Russian
Speaker 1: soldier does at the private level, at the lowest level
Speaker 1: of the execution phase of the Russian military, what they
Speaker 1: do when they are faced with Ukraine citizens and civilians
Speaker 1: and non combatants. And um, there was a side. To me,
Speaker 1: that was just kind of helping that we weren't going
Speaker 1: to see what we ended up seeing. It reflects frankly,
Speaker 1: and this is gonna sound really terrible, but it reflects
Speaker 1: Russian culture unfortunately. And and we would do the same
Speaker 1: for us, we'd project, you know, are the military reflects
Speaker 1: the society that it's from. It's just that simple, which
Speaker 1: where we get the soldiers from. And I'm afraid now
Speaker 1: the Russian culture and Russian people are are staying now
Speaker 1: with the the performance of their military. Now, you know,
Speaker 1: part of the playbook. That's the most overused term right now,
Speaker 1: the Putin playbook and all that goes with that. But
Speaker 1: but but for whatever reason, this is how the Russian
Speaker 1: military on the ground fights. That's the first time it's
Speaker 1: it's it's nineteenth century tactics. It's what happens back that's
Speaker 1: what Russia has done before and every war they've ever
Speaker 1: been involved with when they tried to conquer another another country.
Speaker 1: We just maybe didn't think it was gonna happen now,
Speaker 1: but it did, and um, it just just not change.
Speaker 1: And I'm sorry, but it reflects poorly on Russian culture. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is amazing Historically Putin's doing the same thing Stalin did,
Speaker 1: who did the same thing. The Tzars be for him.
Speaker 1: It's just absolutely amazing, right, Um, it got everybody, It
Speaker 1: got everybody's attention. When General Milly said this is going
Speaker 1: to be measured in years, and he said possibly not decades,
Speaker 1: but years. So I don't think any of us workspect
Speaker 1: in that. So what does this look like for years?
Speaker 1: So so now we're gonna look at this. So deep
Speaker 1: down the United States wants the Russian army destroyed in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and that's why we're pouring the weapons that we're doing
Speaker 1: in and Russia is doing a pretty good job of
Speaker 1: getting itself destroyed in Ukraine. Still a regional conflict, we
Speaker 1: have to look at it that way. Still can't get involved.
Speaker 1: Let's hope Pluton doesn't expand it doesn't attack NATO, doesn't,
Speaker 1: you know, go in such a way that forces us
Speaker 1: to respond. But it likely goes months because he has
Speaker 1: the people in the mass. He's got these these battalion
Speaker 1: tactical groups was what they're called, and how they fight,
Speaker 1: and you know, he brought about a hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: of them or so to the battlefield and still got
Speaker 1: about eight years so left, and he's repositioning all in
Speaker 1: this dome best region where he's gonna out number the
Speaker 1: Ukraine military, um maybe two or three to one. Still
Speaker 1: so um, again, it's just gonna see how well the
Speaker 1: Ukraine military fights and how they defend and what they
Speaker 1: can do. I think this is like the abb Is
Speaker 1: really war from the nineteen seventy three and that it
Speaker 1: had two basically two fronts in the north and in
Speaker 1: the south, and the same thing that happened there. Um
Speaker 1: and after these railities, you know, kind of win in
Speaker 1: the north and then focused in the south. And that's
Speaker 1: really what I think could happen here as well. And
Speaker 1: there'll be this trade off for land for peace, and
Speaker 1: the Ukraine border likely gets redrawn. But if Ukrank can
Speaker 1: keep Odessa the lost Crimea, that's gone right, we all
Speaker 1: agree with that. But if they could keep Odessa, that
Speaker 1: keeps that warm water port, they have something. Um. But
Speaker 1: Mary Poles is probably the last thing that the Russians
Speaker 1: are going to go for, and they have to have
Speaker 1: it if they want to declare any kind of strategic victory.
Speaker 1: So Secretary of State Blincoln said yesterday that we are
Speaker 1: providing or they will soon have uh ten anti tank
Speaker 1: systems for every Russian tank. You're the only person I've
Speaker 1: heard explain the whole tank to me that losing tanks
Speaker 1: isn't a thing, and Russia has lost a lot of
Speaker 1: tanks and now they're there's gonna be ten systems for
Speaker 1: taking out tanks for every tank that exists. So you
Speaker 1: know that's gotta be good news for the Ukrainians. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that those things take out things more than tanks.
Speaker 1: They blow up buildings, they they destroy bunkers, they do
Speaker 1: things that that that uh and they do it in
Speaker 1: a way their heat seeking, their fir and forget there.
Speaker 1: They're high. They're the kind of technology that we brought
Speaker 1: to the battlefield that's making a difference. That all wars
Speaker 1: have these kinds of things that make a difference. Right,
Speaker 1: Desert Storm had GPS systems that the fact that got
Speaker 1: us to the right spot at the right time, and
Speaker 1: MLR as multiple loft rocket systems that allow deep interdicting fires.
Speaker 1: In this war, it's these drone technologies to switch blade.
Speaker 1: You're seeing the fact that the stingers are still keeping
Speaker 1: the skies open, the fact that the skies are still
Speaker 1: uh contested and no no one really has their superiority there.
Speaker 1: But these Javlins, those last things are just tearing the
Speaker 1: tops off those tanks and the BMPs, and they're causing
Speaker 1: Russians to to surrender really in mass. And and the
Speaker 1: fact of the matter is we aren't just flying one
Speaker 1: for one. We're firing five or six at one tank.
Speaker 1: We're making sure that tank dies. So the um A
Speaker 1: spokesman for Zelinsky said yesterday, I need I need three things, weapons, weapons,
Speaker 1: and weapons. The public in the United States, according to polls,
Speaker 1: is all four giving them more. Should we be giving more?
Speaker 1: What would more look like? I just found out that
Speaker 1: even though we've we've given Ukraine a billion dollars worth
Speaker 1: in the last six weeks, we're pumping in nine billion
Speaker 1: a month in Iraq at the time. Right, so we
Speaker 1: were able to do kind of the heavy crew related
Speaker 1: equipment interact, but we can't really do that here. I
Speaker 1: don't know how it gets there. You see the Czech
Speaker 1: Republic trying to give a pc s all Soviet made
Speaker 1: because it's too difficult to now train Ukraine troops on
Speaker 1: ABRAMS tanks or US based equipment. We've got countries in
Speaker 1: data that have the same kind of equipment Ukraine does.
Speaker 1: If we're gonna give anything, that's where it's got to
Speaker 1: come from. We have this. The MiGs are all the
Speaker 1: time people said, oh, let's get them the MiGs, and
Speaker 1: I see where we go from there again, too hard,
Speaker 1: you gotta they'll fly in, They've gotta park them, you've
Speaker 1: gotta realm them, refuel them. I'm not sure they're going
Speaker 1: to be difference makers. The difference makers are those javelins.
Speaker 1: The different makers are the individual weapons systems that are
Speaker 1: easy to use. Um, they're easy to train on that
Speaker 1: that they've We've got so many in there now, I
Speaker 1: am a little bit concerned that we're actually sending too
Speaker 1: many there because those stingers, so I think we've talked
Speaker 1: about two those stingers are weapons of mass destruction if
Speaker 1: they find their way back to the United States. You know,
Speaker 1: those are those are not They're in the playbox right now.
Speaker 1: They're in the playpen of the Ukraine government there. But
Speaker 1: the bottom line is those those get in the wrong
Speaker 1: hands and those become you know, weapons of they could
Speaker 1: shoot down commercial aircraft and things like that. We've gotta
Speaker 1: be really careful about some of the weapons. We also
Speaker 1: provide there and make sure those accountability for them. Interesting
Speaker 1: one final question. I've been trying to figure out how
Speaker 1: to ask this, So I was looking at the picture
Speaker 1: of there was a side by side thing floating around
Speaker 1: on social media a couple of days ago when Zelinski
Speaker 1: went and visited one of those towns where all the
Speaker 1: horror happened. And the look on his face and just
Speaker 1: his face in general, compared to what he looked like
Speaker 1: six weeks ago. I mean, the guy has aged ten
Speaker 1: years in six weeks. And how do you blame how
Speaker 1: do you for those of us have never been around
Speaker 1: this such a horror? How do you keep your what
Speaker 1: do you focus on to keep your your your your here,
Speaker 1: your humanity, to keep from going crazy, to keep from
Speaker 1: questioning everything when you see this sort of stuff. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a great question. And you know, I prepared to
Speaker 1: go to war my whole adult life, you know, at
Speaker 1: the West Point, and I read books and I trained hard.
Speaker 1: And here's a guy that gets thrust into that environment.
Speaker 1: He's a comedian, he's a movie star, and all the
Speaker 1: other things before he gets that spot. But he's quickly
Speaker 1: learned that number One, you have to live in a
Speaker 1: moment and you said, live right there, right at that
Speaker 1: point in time, make a decision based on your instinct.
Speaker 1: He has great instinct. I think that's from what he's demonstrated.
Speaker 1: But then the second thing, he's got to be able
Speaker 1: to compartmentalize. He's got to really look at something and
Speaker 1: not get too emotional about it, keep his emotions so
Speaker 1: in check. Um. I can tell you again, being in combat,
Speaker 1: you see things that you have to look once. You
Speaker 1: look twice and say, Okay, I gotta keep going, I
Speaker 1: gotta move forward. And I look at that guy and
Speaker 1: he just gets up every day. You know, I'm a
Speaker 1: little bit feel better now about keeping about his safety.
Speaker 1: There was a time when we were getting up every
Speaker 1: day thinking about whether or not he was going to
Speaker 1: survive the night. But um, but I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: be okay. And I think he's gonna he's gonna emerge
Speaker 1: as a real leader. Um and I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: you know, he's he's gonna be getting a Nobel Peace prizes,
Speaker 1: lots of things that are gonna be good to come
Speaker 1: his way. He's just got to maintain it. But but
Speaker 1: he was thrust onto it. And when people are trust
Speaker 1: into the greatness they sometimes perform, and he's done superbly.
Speaker 1: This fact I think will be lost to history. But
Speaker 1: our government told him to leave before it started, and
Speaker 1: he said, I ain't going. Man. What a decision that
Speaker 1: turned out to be for the history of his country
Speaker 1: and maybe there for the history of the world. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: absolutely if he had done that. And we're we're we've become, unfortunately,
Speaker 1: the risk averse. You know, we're the super power that's
Speaker 1: risk averse. And you know, I get it. I still
Speaker 1: don't want to push them too far. I think the
Speaker 1: administration has pretty much played this the way they needed
Speaker 1: to played it, and there's not you know, this is
Speaker 1: telling us we have to fix this in the future,
Speaker 1: and we can't fix it now. We just have to
Speaker 1: get the combat to stop. We have to get the
Speaker 1: shooting to stop. But we've got to realize that we've
Speaker 1: got here because the thirty years of bad foreign policy
Speaker 1: and and then then in the moment, we've become risk
Speaker 1: averse and and almost psychologically disarmed. And I think that's, uh,
Speaker 1: that's unfortunate, and that's that's that is a bad reflection
Speaker 1: of this administration. Frankly, Mike Clients, thanks for your time.
Speaker 1: I love your work everywhere I see you. Your Twitter
Speaker 1: uh feet is good to follow and thanks for coming
Speaker 1: on today. Thanks Jack anytime. Thanks to One More Thing
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