WEBVTT - The Briefing: "Get Me Regime Change In Iran" 0:00:01.160 --> 0:00:08.680 This is Gavin Newsom, and this is Richard Haas. Richard, 0:00:08.680 --> 0:00:10.560 thank you so much for taking the time to come on, 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:15.880 particularly at a remarkable time in world history, particularly in 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:20.720 history unfolding in the Middle East. Today. President Trump seemed 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:23.440 to have a day that he's been looking forward to 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:26.439 for years and years and years, pushing NATO to move 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.880 from two percent to five percent. What was your takeaway 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:35.200 from this NATO summit, at least the first day, and 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:38.920 just Trump deserve I think a lot of praise and 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:40.480 for an accomplishment here. 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:43.920 I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, Gavin, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:44.559 good to be with you. 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:46.080 Thank you. 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.680 Look, I would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:53.120 the Europeans to do what they ought to have done 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:53.920 years before. 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:55.160 They ought to be. 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:58.600 Putting forward a larger share of the effort for what's 0:00:58.840 --> 0:00:59.800 a common defense. 0:01:01.000 --> 0:01:02.120 I was just as an aside. 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:04.200 I would say, much more important to me than whether 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:06.720 the Europeans spend three percent or two and a half 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.840 or four and a half is how they spend it. 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:11.440 And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with. 0:01:11.480 --> 0:01:15.000 In public policy, how you spend money is almost always 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:17.920 more important than how much you spend and The problem 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:20.440 with European defense is not just that they spend too little, 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:24.440 but each country pretty much determines how it spends its 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.560 defense euros, so the whole ends up being less than 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:30.200 the sum of its parts. So I would be pushing 0:01:30.240 --> 0:01:32.040 if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah, 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:35.800 push them to do more, but secondly, also push them 0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:39.080 in a sense to become more European, rather than country 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.360 by country by country, which is the way they often 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:43.840 go about it. 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.720 But I think that part is good. Less good is 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:48.000 I think he's introduced some. 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.800 Doubts into the reliability of the United States and what 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:56.960 you might call the automatic quality of Article five America's 0:01:56.960 --> 0:02:00.240 willingness to go to bat for Europe. And obviously there's 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:03.960 also some fairly significant differences about how to handle the 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:08.720 most immediate threat, which is Russia and the war in Ukraine. 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.280 So I think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.519 good to see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more. 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:17.800 And it's interesting just as you unpack and I appreciate 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:21.040 how you spend and where you spend. It was interesting 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.359 just looking at some of the details that their direct 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:27.560 spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:30.800 of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:33.160 five percent. It was also, though interesting to see the 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:37.680 breakdown within the countries. Obviously Germany looking to move quicker 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:41.280 by twenty twenty nine with close to seventy percent increase 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:45.840 in their domestic defense spending, and then Spain, who was 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:49.519 called to help by the President today, looking not necessarily 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:53.520 to reach that numerica. Does that mean much to you 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:55.760 or is that just that's just noise? 0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:01.440 Most interesting part of that is Germany less what Germany 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:04.359 is prepared to do in defense, though doing more as welcome, 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:08.040 but Germany has changed its laws and essentially now is 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:13.000 able to raise serious debt, which was something that modern 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.320 Germany had an allergy to because of the whole Weimar experience. 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:17.520 And the fact that. 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.760 Germany now can really go into the markets and raise 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.359 that gives them far more capacity to potentially grow their 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:28.640 economies as well as to contribute to national security. And 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:30.320 then even go so far as to say the most 0:03:30.360 --> 0:03:32.600 interesting figure in Europe right now is the new Chancellor 0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:35.920 of Germany. And even though he had a rough start 0:03:35.960 --> 0:03:39.400 and getting confirmed and so forth by his parliament, I 0:03:39.440 --> 0:03:42.800 actually think the Chancellor Mertz is in a position to 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:47.160 in some ways have Germany stake out the leadership position 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.640 in Europe, something that historically since World War Two Germany 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:51.800 has been reticent. 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:52.080 To do so. 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:55.040 Would I would watch that space, particularly since the French, 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:59.080 the British and others are so gridlocked domestically. I think 0:03:59.120 --> 0:04:01.160 Germany now occup the critical position. 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:04.800 When you referenced the Article five sort of you know, 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.760 I think the president when he was flying over there 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.640 was some ambiguity once again sort of creating some doubt 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:14.600 and anxiety. He seemed to shift tone a little bit 0:04:15.200 --> 0:04:18.040 when he landed, But that is just that on again, 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.680 off again relationship to the Article five. Is that what 0:04:20.680 --> 0:04:23.160 you're referring to as sort of a lack of certainty 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:24.440 and confidence in the president? 0:04:25.000 --> 0:04:25.200 Yeah. 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:28.279 For those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:31.720 five is the core of the agreement. We're essentially an 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:33.800 attack on one who is considered to be an attack 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:37.839 on all. Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:40.680 entire history, and that was on behalf of the United 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:42.000 States after. 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:42.760 Nine to eleven. 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:49.480 But alliances depend upon predictability and reliability and dependability and 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:53.320 I would argue that President Trump has introduced a significant 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:57.239 degree of uncertainty into that, which I think is counterproductive. 0:04:57.520 --> 0:04:59.800 He would argue, perhaps it was necessary to get the 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:02.520 beans to do more. I would have said, well, probably 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:05.520 there's better ways to do that. But that's where we are, 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:10.240 and to the extent Russia sensus, there's uncertainty there putin 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.880 who as we've seen in Ukraine, can be risk frunt 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:15.480 it might be more likely to take risks. So I 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:19.159 always believe that the best way to deter is through certainty. 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:21.640 So your friends know you'll be there for them, and 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:23.719 just as important, your enemies know you'll be there for 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:27.440 your friends. So I would like for President Trump, as 0:05:27.480 --> 0:05:30.359 the days and weeks and months unfold, to look for 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:33.479 opportunities to make clear that whatever our differences are with 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:36.640 Europe over their level of defense effort, we see it 0:05:36.640 --> 0:05:39.120 as an our interest to be there with them. 0:05:39.800 --> 0:05:40.240 You're here. 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.960 What in terms of the actual bombing itself, and I 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.960 think my most objective standards, it was a success. Whether 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:51.760 or not these sites were quote unquote obliterated, that's a 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:56.320 separate conversation. Is that your assessment that this was a success, 0:05:56.480 --> 0:05:59.480 that in the spirit of what you just said. Around 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:03.599 some certain that the President wasn't bluffing in terms of 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:06.880 wanting to get diplomatic deal done. They appeared not to 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.520 want to move in that direction, so then he asserted 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:10.560 himself militarily. 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:12.320 I think it was the right thing to do. 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.799 For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians 0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.440 where they were enriching uranium far far, far beyond levels 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:22.719 anybody would need to generate electricity, so we all knew 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:24.720 what this was about to put into place. The were 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:31.039 prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program. I also understood we 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.560 couldn't allow Iron to get on the threshold, much less 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.040 have nuclear weapons. We made that mistake. I would argue 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:39.760 with North Korea, we don't want to have it now 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.440 in this part of the world, because if Iron ever 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:43.960 got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:47.640 imposed potentially an existential threat to Israel. But you know, 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:50.560 and I know, the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Turks and 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.359 others would follow suits. And the only thing worse than 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.600 the Middle East we've known is the Middle East I 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.640 just described. So I think what Israel and then the 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.920 United States did was it was warrant it. We'll see 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.400 what the results are. Whatever the Iran, whatever happened, the 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:09.200 Iranian program was not obliterated. Elements of their program I 0:07:09.240 --> 0:07:12.320 expect will have survived the attacks on the three sides. 0:07:12.720 --> 0:07:14.440 More important, I don't know. 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:18.400 You don't know, probably the president doesn't know what amount 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:22.160 of uranium or number of centrifuges and so forth are 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.080 under some roof of some warehouse and some other part 0:07:25.120 --> 0:07:29.120 of Iran. I actually think going forward, Devin, we have 0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:32.080 got to assume just the opposite to the Iranian program 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.720 was not obliterating, but elements of that program exist. And 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:38.280 what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you. I 0:07:38.280 --> 0:07:41.320 would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said, Hey, 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.480 this never would have happened. Had we had nuclear weapons, 0:07:44.720 --> 0:07:47.200 we could have deterred the Israelis in the Americas. So 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.960 I worry that going forward, I think their determination to 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:54.119 develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater. 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:56.440 Well, you know, I want to just pick up on 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.720 that point because that's an interesting observation and an important one. 0:07:59.760 --> 0:08:02.640 And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second. 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.640 Because your reference goes back to the opportunity the United 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:08.560 States had under the Clinton administration to take out their 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.840 program before it proliferated. But I want to talk a 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.040 little bit about the Non Proliferation Treaty. People have brought 0:08:15.120 --> 0:08:17.600 that up since the nineteen seventies. I think two hundred 0:08:17.680 --> 0:08:22.240 countries were signatories to that, including Iran. There were a 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:26.560 number of countries that have developed nuclear programs that were 0:08:26.600 --> 0:08:31.680 not original signers to that. Obviously Korea and Israel in 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.320 the extent they have a nuclear program quote unquote, but 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:39.679 certainly India and Pakistan. But those countries as a consequence, 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.319 would make the claim you just made that they've been 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:47.160 they've had that deterrent. Now Iran assumed that they would 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:50.560 not be bombed, I presume under the terms of the 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:54.439 Non Proliferation Treaty. Does that put it risk the entire 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.400 notion of the non Proliferation Treaty? What's just occurred. 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:00.440 So let me give you a slightly convoluted answered. 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:04.560 The Non Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.920 the effort against non proliferation. I don't think it's a 0:09:07.960 --> 0:09:10.599 wildly successful piece in many ways because. 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:11.960 It really is a gentleman's agreement. 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.760 We declare what facilities we're doing, certain types of research 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.160 or engineering in and then the inspectors come look at them. 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.720 Inspectors can't look at places that are not known. So 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:25.600 the entire treaty in that sense is based upon a 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.240 degree of faith that I tend not to have. North 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:32.479 Korea withdrew from the treaty and there was no particular 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:36.319 penalty or anything for them having done so. It turns 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:39.040 out the most important non proliferation tool out there is 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:39.720 not the Treaty. 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:41.640 It's called America's alliances. 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.760 By giving countries the confidence that we are there for them, 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:48.640 they don't need to become self sufficient, and the biggest 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:51.320 way to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, the South 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:55.120 Koreans or others come to have doubts about their relationships 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:57.319 with US. So don't get me wrong, I'm not saying 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.160 the Non Proliferation Treaty doesn't have some utility, and I 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:04.360 think in particular the inspection provisions can be useful. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:05.679 But we shouldn't exaggerate. 0:10:05.960 --> 0:10:10.400 Uh, it's impact that Iran I would think was going 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.040 to do is going to do what it wants regardless 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:15.880 of its obligations under the street. 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.000 So back to what you were saying, I mean, so 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:23.320 just let's speculate what goes happens going forward. Obviously, this 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.280 notion of resim change, people sort of pull back a 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.880 little bit, or least it appears the President's pulled back. 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.720 I don't know if BB is pulled back on the 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:35.400 notion of regime change. But what won't change is their pursuit, 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:39.160 presumably of a nuclear weapon. As you note, we don't 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.760 know that the program was quote unquote obliterated. Even if 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.240 the physical sites may have been, we don't know where 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:49.640 this enriched uranium is and centrifugius you imagine. Now your 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:53.280 concern is now what that they accelerate that program with 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:57.280 the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors. 0:10:58.000 --> 0:10:58.680 That's my concern. 0:10:58.720 --> 0:11:00.760 It might not be their immediate priority, which I think 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.520 is to shore up the regime. But at some point 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:07.880 I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority, 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:10.720 which means, by the way, the day may come where Israel, 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:14.319 the United States needs to once again use military force 0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:18.079 if we discover some activity going on in the Iranians 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.680 won't voluntarily give it up. It's not normal that problems 0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:24.920 get solved. When I was the head of the Council 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:27.920 on Foreign Relations, I used to discourage the Fellows from 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:32.160 using the words solved or solution, because it's just the 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:34.880 way history works. So I don't believe whatever it is 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.920 we accomplished the other day, however much we accomplished, it 0:11:38.960 --> 0:11:41.400 didn't solve the problem. It may have reduced it, it may 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.400 have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop up again. 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:47.040 It's by the way you mentioned regime change. 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:49.200 It's one of the reasons that people, I think are 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:53.320 attracted to the idea. If you can't solve the Iranian 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:57.560 problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say, 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.160 what's left, Well, let's get a benign government. And I 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.880 think that's why there's so much interest in regime change. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:05.080 The problem is it's easier to talk about it than 0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:08.600 bring it about. I don't see the prerequisites in place 0:12:08.679 --> 0:12:12.199 for it, and in any case, you can't base your 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.960 policy on it. People don't like it when I say this, 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.600 but it's a wish more than a strategy. If it 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:21.400 were to happen. I think it brings problems but obvious 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.880 benefits with it. But we just can't count on it. 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.800 And no president can give the order to so to say, 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.160 Secretary of Defense or State and say, get me regime 0:12:31.240 --> 0:12:34.880 change and Iran they wouldn't have then the tools to 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:36.200 necessarily carry. 0:12:36.000 --> 0:12:40.360 It out when it comes to just issues of trust, 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:42.840 and you know, I think one of the questions that 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:44.800 I get and I ask myself all the time, I 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:47.040 feel like, for most of my adult life, I've been 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.320 hearing baby net Yao say they're just months away, a 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:56.240 year away from having weapons, great nuclear weapons, and you know, 0:12:56.280 --> 0:13:00.000 a certain point you just stop believing it. But you're assessed, 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.880 you know, your own objective assessment. This time did appear 0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:07.520 to be different, that they were getting closer and actually 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.000 appeared to be within a matter of months in a 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:15.720 position where potentially we had a weapons grade weapon coming 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:17.080 out of Iran? Is that accurate? 0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.800 Pretty much? Look, this was a gathering threat. It wasn't 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.360 an imminent threat. It was a gathering threat. And the 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.120 question is how close Now we know they had done 0:13:26.120 --> 0:13:28.000 most of the enrichment work they need to do to 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.199 get it uranium enriched a plus or minus sixty percent, 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:34.160 that's not just sixty percent of the effort, that's actually 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.959 closer than ninety percent of the effort. For reasons of 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:40.000 physics that I couldn't explain because I don't understand them 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:44.080 well enough, but I think I'm right there. Well, we 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.400 don't know is how close they were on some of 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.720 the other things, the actual fabrication of explosive devices, the 0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:53.040 bomb and so forth. And there was the Israelis, believe 0:13:53.160 --> 0:13:56.840 the economists published some very interesting stuff about it, that 0:13:56.920 --> 0:13:59.600 they had made some breakthroughs, they had had some secret 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:02.840 program amas and so forth. And I think we have 0:14:02.920 --> 0:14:06.680 to be tolerant, just like after nine to eleven we 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:11.400 were less willing to run certain risks, say about what 0:14:11.400 --> 0:14:13.600 Iraq could do. And this is not a justification for 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.200 the Iraq war. I was against it, but just I 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:20.359 understand some of the thinking. I think Israel after October 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:24.320 seventh had less tolerance of running certain risks in their case. 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.239 So I just think the combination of a change mentality 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:32.560 in Israel, the evisceration of groups like Isbella, which couldn't 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:37.880 really attack Israel anymore, and this new intelligence would suggested, however, 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.480 far along the Iranians or they were farther along. 0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:41.640 And I think for. 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:45.960 All those reasons, the Israelis decided to act and we 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:46.720 came in behind. 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:50.720 Does this keep BB in power for another extended period 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:51.120 of time. 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:54.200 Well, he's got roughly what sixteen seventeen months to run 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:56.280 before he has to. I think the elections are scheduled 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:57.560 for October of next year. 0:14:57.840 --> 0:14:58.680 It certainly helps them. 0:14:59.400 --> 0:15:03.520 Israel, as know, is deeply divided about issues on democracy, Gaza, 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.720 what have you, whether the religious can be drafted and 0:15:07.760 --> 0:15:12.200 so forth. They are not divided on Iran left and right, 0:15:12.240 --> 0:15:14.480 hawk and dove. There aren't a lot of doves in 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:17.720 Israel when it comes to rod. So it clearly helps BB. 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:21.760 It changes the conversation a little, but it brings Israel together. 0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:24.440 It's seen as an accomplishment, and he has. He has 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:30.600 changed in many ways israel strategic reality, given the change 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.560 in Syria, is Bulah, the weakening of a mosqu Whatever 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:36.800 you think, however critical people watching this might be of 0:15:36.960 --> 0:15:39.080 what Israel's done and how it's done it in Gaza, 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.120 the reality is that BB nets and Yahoo in the 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:46.520 last what eighteen months, has dramatically reduced the external threat 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:47.040 to Israel.