1 00:00:01,160 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: This is Gavin Newsom, and this is Richard Haas. Richard, 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: thank you so much for taking the time to come on, 3 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: particularly at a remarkable time in world history, particularly in 4 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: history unfolding in the Middle East. Today. President Trump seemed 5 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 1: to have a day that he's been looking forward to 6 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: for years and years and years, pushing NATO to move 7 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: from two percent to five percent. What was your takeaway 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: from this NATO summit, at least the first day, and 9 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 1: just Trump deserve I think a lot of praise and 10 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 1: for an accomplishment here. 11 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 2: I would argue President Trump, well, first of all, Gavin, 12 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 2: good to be with you. 13 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 3: Thank you. 14 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 2: Look, I would argue President Trump deserves credit for spurring 15 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 2: the Europeans to do what they ought to have done 16 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 2: years before. 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 3: They ought to be. 18 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 2: Putting forward a larger share of the effort for what's 19 00:00:58,840 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: a common defense. 20 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 3: I was just as an aside. 21 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 2: I would say, much more important to me than whether 22 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 2: the Europeans spend three percent or two and a half 23 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 2: or four and a half is how they spend it. 24 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 3: And I'd actually say something you'd probably agree with. 25 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 2: In public policy, how you spend money is almost always 26 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 2: more important than how much you spend and The problem 27 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 2: with European defense is not just that they spend too little, 28 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 2: but each country pretty much determines how it spends its 29 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 2: defense euros, so the whole ends up being less than 30 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 2: the sum of its parts. So I would be pushing 31 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 2: if I were advising the president, I would say, yeah, 32 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 2: push them to do more, but secondly, also push them 33 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 2: in a sense to become more European, rather than country 34 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: by country by country, which is the way they often 35 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: go about it. 36 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 3: But I think that part is good. Less good is 37 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 3: I think he's introduced some. 38 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: Doubts into the reliability of the United States and what 39 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 2: you might call the automatic quality of Article five America's 40 00:01:56,960 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: willingness to go to bat for Europe. And obviously there's 41 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 2: also some fairly significant differences about how to handle the 42 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 2: most immediate threat, which is Russia and the war in Ukraine. 43 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 2: So I think it's a mixed bag. But yes, it's 44 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 2: good to see the Europeans essentially getting pushed to do more. 45 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 1: And it's interesting just as you unpack and I appreciate 46 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: how you spend and where you spend. It was interesting 47 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 1: just looking at some of the details that their direct 48 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,560 Speaker 1: spend in support of Ukraine would be considered as part 49 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,800 Speaker 1: of that contribution as it relates to that breakdown of 50 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: five percent. It was also, though interesting to see the 51 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: breakdown within the countries. Obviously Germany looking to move quicker 52 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: by twenty twenty nine with close to seventy percent increase 53 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: in their domestic defense spending, and then Spain, who was 54 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: called to help by the President today, looking not necessarily 55 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: to reach that numerica. Does that mean much to you 56 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: or is that just that's just noise? 57 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 2: Most interesting part of that is Germany less what Germany 58 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 2: is prepared to do in defense, though doing more as welcome, 59 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: but Germany has changed its laws and essentially now is 60 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 2: able to raise serious debt, which was something that modern 61 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 2: Germany had an allergy to because of the whole Weimar experience. 62 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 3: And the fact that. 63 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: Germany now can really go into the markets and raise 64 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 2: that gives them far more capacity to potentially grow their 65 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 2: economies as well as to contribute to national security. And 66 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: then even go so far as to say the most 67 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 2: interesting figure in Europe right now is the new Chancellor 68 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 2: of Germany. And even though he had a rough start 69 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 2: and getting confirmed and so forth by his parliament, I 70 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 2: actually think the Chancellor Mertz is in a position to 71 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: in some ways have Germany stake out the leadership position 72 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: in Europe, something that historically since World War Two Germany 73 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 2: has been reticent. 74 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: To do so. 75 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 2: Would I would watch that space, particularly since the French, 76 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 2: the British and others are so gridlocked domestically. I think 77 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 2: Germany now occup the critical position. 78 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 1: When you referenced the Article five sort of you know, 79 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: I think the president when he was flying over there 80 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: was some ambiguity once again sort of creating some doubt 81 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: and anxiety. He seemed to shift tone a little bit 82 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,040 Speaker 1: when he landed, But that is just that on again, 83 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: off again relationship to the Article five. Is that what 84 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 1: you're referring to as sort of a lack of certainty 85 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: and confidence in the president? 86 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 3: Yeah. 87 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 2: For those who haven't read the NATO treaty recently, Article 88 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 2: five is the core of the agreement. We're essentially an 89 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: attack on one who is considered to be an attack 90 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 2: on all. Curiously, it's only been invoked once in NATO's 91 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 2: entire history, and that was on behalf of the United 92 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 2: States after. 93 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 3: Nine to eleven. 94 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 2: But alliances depend upon predictability and reliability and dependability and 95 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 2: I would argue that President Trump has introduced a significant 96 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,239 Speaker 2: degree of uncertainty into that, which I think is counterproductive. 97 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 2: He would argue, perhaps it was necessary to get the 98 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 2: beans to do more. I would have said, well, probably 99 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 2: there's better ways to do that. But that's where we are, 100 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 2: and to the extent Russia sensus, there's uncertainty there putin 101 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: who as we've seen in Ukraine, can be risk frunt 102 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 2: it might be more likely to take risks. So I 103 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 2: always believe that the best way to deter is through certainty. 104 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: So your friends know you'll be there for them, and 105 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 2: just as important, your enemies know you'll be there for 106 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 2: your friends. So I would like for President Trump, as 107 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 2: the days and weeks and months unfold, to look for 108 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,479 Speaker 2: opportunities to make clear that whatever our differences are with 109 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 2: Europe over their level of defense effort, we see it 110 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,120 Speaker 2: as an our interest to be there with them. 111 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 3: You're here. 112 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: What in terms of the actual bombing itself, and I 113 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: think my most objective standards, it was a success. Whether 114 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: or not these sites were quote unquote obliterated, that's a 115 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: separate conversation. Is that your assessment that this was a success, 116 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 1: that in the spirit of what you just said. Around 117 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: some certain that the President wasn't bluffing in terms of 118 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: wanting to get diplomatic deal done. They appeared not to 119 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: want to move in that direction, so then he asserted 120 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: himself militarily. 121 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: I think it was the right thing to do. 122 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:15,799 Speaker 2: For years, we've been playing this game with the Iranians 123 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 2: where they were enriching uranium far far, far beyond levels 124 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,719 Speaker 2: anybody would need to generate electricity, so we all knew 125 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:24,720 Speaker 2: what this was about to put into place. The were 126 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 2: prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program. I also understood we 127 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: couldn't allow Iron to get on the threshold, much less 128 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 2: have nuclear weapons. We made that mistake. I would argue 129 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 2: with North Korea, we don't want to have it now 130 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 2: in this part of the world, because if Iron ever 131 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: got nuclear weapons, not only would they act more aggressively 132 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 2: imposed potentially an existential threat to Israel. But you know, 133 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 2: and I know, the Saudis, the Egyptians, the Turks and 134 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 2: others would follow suits. And the only thing worse than 135 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 2: the Middle East we've known is the Middle East I 136 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 2: just described. So I think what Israel and then the 137 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 2: United States did was it was warrant it. We'll see 138 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 2: what the results are. Whatever the Iran, whatever happened, the 139 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 2: Iranian program was not obliterated. Elements of their program I 140 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: expect will have survived the attacks on the three sides. 141 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 3: More important, I don't know. 142 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: You don't know, probably the president doesn't know what amount 143 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 2: of uranium or number of centrifuges and so forth are 144 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: under some roof of some warehouse and some other part 145 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 2: of Iran. I actually think going forward, Devin, we have 146 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 2: got to assume just the opposite to the Iranian program 147 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 2: was not obliterating, but elements of that program exist. And 148 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 2: what's worrisome to me, I'll be honest with you. I 149 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 2: would think that a lot of Iranian leaders have said, Hey, 150 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 2: this never would have happened. Had we had nuclear weapons, 151 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 2: we could have deterred the Israelis in the Americas. So 152 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 2: I worry that going forward, I think their determination to 153 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,119 Speaker 2: develop nuclear weapons might, if anything, be even greater. 154 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: Well, you know, I want to just pick up on 155 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: that point because that's an interesting observation and an important one. 156 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: And we'll get to North Korea as well in a second. 157 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 1: Because your reference goes back to the opportunity the United 158 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 1: States had under the Clinton administration to take out their 159 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: program before it proliferated. But I want to talk a 160 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 1: little bit about the Non Proliferation Treaty. People have brought 161 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 1: that up since the nineteen seventies. I think two hundred 162 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 1: countries were signatories to that, including Iran. There were a 163 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: number of countries that have developed nuclear programs that were 164 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: not original signers to that. Obviously Korea and Israel in 165 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 1: the extent they have a nuclear program quote unquote, but 166 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,679 Speaker 1: certainly India and Pakistan. But those countries as a consequence, 167 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 1: would make the claim you just made that they've been 168 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: they've had that deterrent. Now Iran assumed that they would 169 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: not be bombed, I presume under the terms of the 170 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: Non Proliferation Treaty. Does that put it risk the entire 171 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: notion of the non Proliferation Treaty? What's just occurred. 172 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 3: So let me give you a slightly convoluted answered. 173 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 2: The Non Proliferation Treaty is only a small piece of 174 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 2: the effort against non proliferation. I don't think it's a 175 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,599 Speaker 2: wildly successful piece in many ways because. 176 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 3: It really is a gentleman's agreement. 177 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 2: We declare what facilities we're doing, certain types of research 178 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 2: or engineering in and then the inspectors come look at them. 179 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 2: Inspectors can't look at places that are not known. So 180 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 2: the entire treaty in that sense is based upon a 181 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 2: degree of faith that I tend not to have. North 182 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,479 Speaker 2: Korea withdrew from the treaty and there was no particular 183 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 2: penalty or anything for them having done so. It turns 184 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 2: out the most important non proliferation tool out there is 185 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: not the Treaty. 186 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 3: It's called America's alliances. 187 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: By giving countries the confidence that we are there for them, 188 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 2: they don't need to become self sufficient, and the biggest 189 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 2: way to accelerate proliferation will be, for example, the South 190 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 2: Koreans or others come to have doubts about their relationships 191 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 2: with US. So don't get me wrong, I'm not saying 192 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 2: the Non Proliferation Treaty doesn't have some utility, and I 193 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 2: think in particular the inspection provisions can be useful. 194 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 3: But we shouldn't exaggerate. 195 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 2: Uh, it's impact that Iran I would think was going 196 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: to do is going to do what it wants regardless 197 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 2: of its obligations under the street. 198 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: So back to what you were saying, I mean, so 199 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: just let's speculate what goes happens going forward. Obviously, this 200 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: notion of resim change, people sort of pull back a 201 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 1: little bit, or least it appears the President's pulled back. 202 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 1: I don't know if BB is pulled back on the 203 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: notion of regime change. But what won't change is their pursuit, 204 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 1: presumably of a nuclear weapon. As you note, we don't 205 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: know that the program was quote unquote obliterated. Even if 206 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 1: the physical sites may have been, we don't know where 207 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 1: this enriched uranium is and centrifugius you imagine. Now your 208 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: concern is now what that they accelerate that program with 209 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: the darkness, meaning without any international inspectors. 210 00:10:58,000 --> 00:10:58,680 Speaker 3: That's my concern. 211 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 2: It might not be their immediate priority, which I think 212 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 2: is to shore up the regime. But at some point 213 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 2: I do think reconstituting a program will become a priority, 214 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 2: which means, by the way, the day may come where Israel, 215 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 2: the United States needs to once again use military force 216 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 2: if we discover some activity going on in the Iranians 217 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 2: won't voluntarily give it up. It's not normal that problems 218 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 2: get solved. When I was the head of the Council 219 00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 2: on Foreign Relations, I used to discourage the Fellows from 220 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 2: using the words solved or solution, because it's just the 221 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 2: way history works. So I don't believe whatever it is 222 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 2: we accomplished the other day, however much we accomplished, it 223 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 2: didn't solve the problem. It may have reduced it, it may 224 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 2: have set back the Iranian program, but that'll pop up again. 225 00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 3: It's by the way you mentioned regime change. 226 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons that people, I think are 227 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 2: attracted to the idea. If you can't solve the Iranian 228 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 2: problem through military force or through diplomacy, then people say, 229 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 2: what's left, Well, let's get a benign government. And I 230 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 2: think that's why there's so much interest in regime change. 231 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 2: The problem is it's easier to talk about it than 232 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 2: bring it about. I don't see the prerequisites in place 233 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,199 Speaker 2: for it, and in any case, you can't base your 234 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 2: policy on it. People don't like it when I say this, 235 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 2: but it's a wish more than a strategy. If it 236 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 2: were to happen. I think it brings problems but obvious 237 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 2: benefits with it. But we just can't count on it. 238 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 2: And no president can give the order to so to say, 239 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense or State and say, get me regime 240 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: change and Iran they wouldn't have then the tools to 241 00:12:34,960 --> 00:12:36,200 Speaker 2: necessarily carry. 242 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: It out when it comes to just issues of trust, 243 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 1: and you know, I think one of the questions that 244 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: I get and I ask myself all the time, I 245 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: feel like, for most of my adult life, I've been 246 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 1: hearing baby net Yao say they're just months away, a 247 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: year away from having weapons, great nuclear weapons, and you know, 248 00:12:56,280 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 1: a certain point you just stop believing it. But you're assessed, 249 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: you know, your own objective assessment. This time did appear 250 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 1: to be different, that they were getting closer and actually 251 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: appeared to be within a matter of months in a 252 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: position where potentially we had a weapons grade weapon coming 253 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: out of Iran? Is that accurate? 254 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 2: Pretty much? Look, this was a gathering threat. It wasn't 255 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: an imminent threat. It was a gathering threat. And the 256 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 2: question is how close Now we know they had done 257 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 2: most of the enrichment work they need to do to 258 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 2: get it uranium enriched a plus or minus sixty percent, 259 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 2: that's not just sixty percent of the effort, that's actually 260 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 2: closer than ninety percent of the effort. For reasons of 261 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 2: physics that I couldn't explain because I don't understand them 262 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 2: well enough, but I think I'm right there. Well, we 263 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 2: don't know is how close they were on some of 264 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 2: the other things, the actual fabrication of explosive devices, the 265 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 2: bomb and so forth. And there was the Israelis, believe 266 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 2: the economists published some very interesting stuff about it, that 267 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 2: they had made some breakthroughs, they had had some secret 268 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 2: program amas and so forth. And I think we have 269 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,680 Speaker 2: to be tolerant, just like after nine to eleven we 270 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 2: were less willing to run certain risks, say about what 271 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 2: Iraq could do. And this is not a justification for 272 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: the Iraq war. I was against it, but just I 273 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:20,359 Speaker 2: understand some of the thinking. I think Israel after October 274 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 2: seventh had less tolerance of running certain risks in their case. 275 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,239 Speaker 2: So I just think the combination of a change mentality 276 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 2: in Israel, the evisceration of groups like Isbella, which couldn't 277 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: really attack Israel anymore, and this new intelligence would suggested, however, 278 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 2: far along the Iranians or they were farther along. 279 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 3: And I think for. 280 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 2: All those reasons, the Israelis decided to act and we 281 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 2: came in behind. 282 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 1: Does this keep BB in power for another extended period 283 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 1: of time. 284 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,200 Speaker 2: Well, he's got roughly what sixteen seventeen months to run 285 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 2: before he has to. I think the elections are scheduled 286 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: for October of next year. 287 00:14:57,840 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: It certainly helps them. 288 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: Israel, as know, is deeply divided about issues on democracy, Gaza, 289 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 2: what have you, whether the religious can be drafted and 290 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: so forth. They are not divided on Iran left and right, 291 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 2: hawk and dove. There aren't a lot of doves in 292 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: Israel when it comes to rod. So it clearly helps BB. 293 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 2: It changes the conversation a little, but it brings Israel together. 294 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: It's seen as an accomplishment, and he has. He has 295 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 2: changed in many ways israel strategic reality, given the change 296 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 2: in Syria, is Bulah, the weakening of a mosqu Whatever 297 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 2: you think, however critical people watching this might be of 298 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 2: what Israel's done and how it's done it in Gaza, 299 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: the reality is that BB nets and Yahoo in the 300 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 2: last what eighteen months, has dramatically reduced the external threat 301 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:47,040 Speaker 2: to Israel.