1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 2: Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. On a 7 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: day where we don't actually expect to hear from President Trump, 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: at least not on camera. He's not planning to speak 9 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,599 Speaker 2: with reporters. There's no events on his public schedule, but 10 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: we are still hearing from him on True Social as 11 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: usual and on an interesting subject. Today is his most 12 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: recent True Social post. Show warns that Vladimir Putin of 13 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 2: Russia is playing with fire. He says, what Vladim Reputin 14 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: doesn't realize is that if it weren't for me, lots 15 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 2: of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, 16 00:00:56,120 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 2: and I mean really bad in all caps. This is 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 2: of course, after over the weeks, he said, Vladimir Putin 18 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: is now crazy. 19 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 3: That's right, He called him crazy in all caps exclamation point. 20 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 3: As Vladimir Putin continues to bombard Ukraine missiles and drones 21 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 3: killing civilians, not even targeting military installations in some cases, 22 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 3: which is confounding. Donald Trump not sure what he's referring 23 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 3: to in this tweet though, or this truth post. Lots 24 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 3: of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, 25 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 3: making many ask if that's with regard to sanctions or 26 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 3: something worse. 27 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 2: Well, keeping in mind that he also did tell reporters 28 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: that he is still considering further sanctions on Russia, and 29 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 2: we know there's legislation in the Senate in the works 30 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 2: that would do just that, spearheaded by Lindsay Graham. It 31 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 2: has eighty co sponsors. 32 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, that could happen pretty easily based on what we've 33 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,119 Speaker 3: heard on Capitol Hill. And that's where we are joined 34 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 3: by Kate Sullivan, Bloomberg's White House correspondent with us here 35 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: in Washington, d C. Kate, it's great to see the 36 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: president has no public events scheduled, but he's got us 37 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 3: talking with truth social posts all the while. 38 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 4: Is he serious about sanctions? 39 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 5: You know, it's a great question. And this is not 40 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 5: the first time that he's threatened sanctions on Russia, right, 41 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 5: and he's talked about back in March, he was talking 42 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 5: about these secondary tariffs on Russian oil. It's we've seen 43 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 5: this progression of Trump getting more and more frustrated with 44 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,920 Speaker 5: Putin and with Russia and the pace of these negotiations. 45 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 5: It's very unclear how serious he is about implementing these 46 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 5: you know, he is. We've seen over and over again 47 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 5: how he will make these threats, and it seems like 48 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 5: most of the time it's just a tactic to get 49 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 5: people to come to the table. And so it's very 50 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 5: unclear at this time whether how serious he is about 51 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 5: implementing this. 52 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 2: Well, what about just his attitude overall and the post 53 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 2: we mentioned in which he says Vladimir Putin is crazy. 54 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 2: He said he led the post by saying, I've always 55 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia. 56 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: But something has happened to him. He has gone absolutely crazy. 57 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 2: It's not a I was wrong about him, It's that 58 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 2: he has changed. Kate is how he's characterizing. 59 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 5: This right, and it's it's pretty remarkable because this has 60 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 5: been a bit of a slow burn. I think, you know, 61 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 5: we've seen signs that Trump is getting more and more 62 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 5: frustrated with the pace of these negotiations. He you know, 63 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,800 Speaker 5: has has always still said that he even as he 64 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 5: was expressing these these frustrations, he said that, you know, 65 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 5: he was still confident that Putin wanted to make a 66 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 5: deal and that he wanted to come to the table. 67 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,799 Speaker 5: I actually asked Trump about this a few weeks ago 68 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 5: in the Oval Office, and I said, you know, do 69 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 5: you think Russia is playing you? And unsurprisingly, he balked 70 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 5: at that question and said, you know, nobody's playing me. Uh, 71 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 5: nobody's getting played. But he also still signaled confidence that 72 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 5: this deal would be made. And so I think what 73 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 5: we're seeing is Trump realizing that maybe he doesn't have 74 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 5: the relationship that he thought he did with Putin, or 75 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,840 Speaker 5: maybe he didn't have he doesn't have the understanding that 76 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 5: he thought he did with the Russian president. And I 77 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 5: think it's really frustrating to him because ultimately it's making 78 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 5: Trump look ineffective, and it's really cutting at the heart 79 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 5: of this brand that Trump has been trying to project 80 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,720 Speaker 5: for decades, right that he's this master negotiator and deal maker. 81 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 5: You know, this was part of his stump speech. He 82 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 5: said every day on the campaign trail, I heard him 83 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 5: say it at every rally that he could end this 84 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 5: war in twenty four hours, and at one point he 85 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 5: was saying I could end it before I even take office. 86 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 5: And so this is really just undermining a lot of 87 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 5: what he's been putting out there in terms of the 88 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 5: image he wants to project as a as a president. 89 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:25,799 Speaker 3: I'm sure it's quite an experience to be a journalist 90 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 3: than as Donald Trump. If he's being played, what was 91 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 3: his response, who are you with? 92 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 5: I've gotten that one before, and I would say, you know, 93 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 5: I phrased it that way. He had said something like 94 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,559 Speaker 5: I know when I'm getting played, and so I followed 95 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 5: up by being, well, do you think that you are 96 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 5: getting played? And he he said he did not think 97 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 5: that he was getting played, but you know, of course 98 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 5: he would say that. 99 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 4: So doing great work for us. Now there the faint 100 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 4: of heart for the brave. 101 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 2: Indeed, Kate Sullivan, Bloomberg White House correspondent, thank you so much. 102 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 2: And we want to get more into the state of 103 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 2: the war and what signals this sends about the US 104 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 2: is continued involvement or not in attempts to end it, 105 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 2: and turned to Ben Jensen, director of the Future's Lab 106 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: and senior Fellow for the Defense and Security Department at 107 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 2: the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ben, thanks for 108 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: being with us on balance of power. When we consider 109 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 2: the idea that President Trump is now threatening that Russia 110 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: is playing with fire, that he's still saying he's open 111 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 2: to sanctions, Is there any fire the US could fire 112 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,720 Speaker 2: at Russia that would actually actually be enough to influence 113 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 2: the behavior of Vladimir Putin at this point when to 114 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 2: this point that hasn't worked. Sanctions have had very little 115 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 2: effect on his behavior. 116 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 6: So thanks for having me, And let's start by saying, 117 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 6: you're framing the question spot on the real Achilles heel 118 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 6: of Russia, despite its ability to continue a protracted conflict. 119 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 6: Is it the dire state of its economy when you 120 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 6: look at the currency, you look at interest rates, and 121 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 6: then you think about the structure how its economy is 122 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 6: fundamentally and rewired to do nothing but be a larger 123 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 6: version of North Korean Europe, to do wage successive campaigns, 124 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 6: increasingly through missilesalvos targeting Ukraine. I think there is the 125 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 6: ability to play with fire and a couple of levers. 126 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 6: One is you actually have to expand the scope of 127 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 6: sanctions to go secondary sanctions that actually hit financial transactions 128 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 6: that deal with Russian hydrocarbon products. Now, if you do that, 129 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 6: you're going to have to keep Europe on board. You're 130 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 6: also going to have some uncomfortable allies because ultimately what 131 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 6: you want to do is make Russian oil more expensive, 132 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 6: Russian gas more expensive, and that actually hurts that meaning 133 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 6: it costs them more to produce and they don't get 134 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 6: as much of the return on their investments. And that's 135 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 6: actually really important because we already see you mentioned earlier 136 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 6: in your show. Today, we already have oil prices are 137 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 6: down over a percent today. So if we have a 138 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 6: natural dampening on oil prices at the same time that 139 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 6: we have a more concerted sanctions package, we can at 140 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 6: least squeeze the ability of Vladimir Putin to wage war. Now, 141 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 6: to be fair, that's still going to take time to 142 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 6: actually impact his battlefield performance, given that he's got consistent 143 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 6: support from both China and Iran and has found ways 144 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 6: to kind of turn on the Russian economy into a 145 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 6: war economy. 146 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 4: Hey bet, it's great to have you back. 147 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 3: Let's talk about his battlefield performance, because last time you 148 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 3: were with us, you showed us your Russian firepower strike tracker, 149 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 3: which people can google and look at this online, which 150 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 3: shows us a massive increase in missile attacks by Vladimir Putin, 151 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 3: the daily tallly of Russian missile attacks since Donald Trump 152 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 3: has become president. Is he trying to seize on a 153 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: closing window to do as much damage as possible before 154 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: there's a peace deal or it's just open season under Trump. 155 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 6: So I don't think it has as much to do 156 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 6: with the Trump presidency as much as Vladimir Putin's perspective 157 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 6: on how you negotiate from a position of strength, and 158 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 6: that is sadly, to hold the Ukrainian population hostage. And 159 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 6: as you mentioned the firepower strike tracker, let me break 160 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 6: down what we saw in the last seventy two hours, 161 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 6: because the numbers are stark. In the last seventy two hours, 162 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 6: we had three hundred and fifty five Shaheed attacks. That's 163 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 6: the largest in a seventy two hour period since the 164 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 6: war began. And we're still seventy of those weapons got through. 165 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 6: When I say seventy to put that in perspective, that 166 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 6: means over seven thousand pounds of high explosives hit Ukrainian 167 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 6: cities in the last seventy two hours just with Shahed drones, 168 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 6: and it wasn't just shiheds. There were twenty three ballistic 169 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 6: missiles fired in this period. Now, normally you only see 170 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 6: one to two ballistic missiles fired per day, so twenty 171 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,440 Speaker 6: three in a seventy two hour period is a massive increase. 172 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 6: And you also saw sixty two cruise missile attacks. Now, 173 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 6: when you put that all together, that means you have 174 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 6: over one thousand, one thousand one way attack drones, ballistic missiles, 175 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 6: and cruise missiles that were largely targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure, 176 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 6: civilian populations, and political centers of gravity, almost as if 177 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 6: it was a slight to our president and anyone who 178 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 6: thinks that Putin isn't in this war for the long 179 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 6: haul and going to try to settle this on the 180 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 6: battlefield or at least seeing if he can break the 181 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 6: will of the Ukrainian people during this kind of pseudo 182 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 6: negotiation period we're in. 183 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 2: So, Ben, are you saying that this is more about 184 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 2: the psychological impact of these strikes than actual territorial advances 185 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: Russia is trying to make. 186 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 6: That's a great question, and yes, I do think that 187 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 6: in fact, as part of that firepower strike tracker. We've 188 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 6: done two recent studies, one study called drone saturation, which 189 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 6: really looks at the profile the Shihat attacks. But to 190 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 6: your question, the more important one is called operational Fires 191 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 6: in an Age of Punishment, And what we statistically prove 192 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 6: in that is that Russia has decoupled its strategic attack forces, 193 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 6: its ballistic missiles, its cruise missiles, its Shaheed drones from 194 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 6: its operational level battlefield objectives. Meaning in modern war when 195 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 6: you have precision strike, we would expect to see a 196 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 6: tighter coupling of these deep fires with operational ground maneuvers, 197 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 6: and can show in that report that nothing could be 198 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 6: further from the truth. It appears to be that entded 199 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 6: like Shaheed. So these attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic 200 00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 6: missiles are literally used. Has a psychological tool which is 201 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 6: a throwback to theories of airpower we haven't seen since 202 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 6: before the Second World War, where embombing to win meant 203 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 6: disrectly a psychological effect upon the population to then convince 204 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,280 Speaker 6: leaders to sue for peace. So I think you're onto something. 205 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 6: This is more about psychology. It's a coercive campaign, it's 206 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 6: a punishment campaign. It has very little modern traditional military 207 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 6: utility or logic. It's a throwback to almost a time 208 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 6: long gone by. 209 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 3: Well, clearly you're onto something here, Ben, and at the 210 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 3: risk of asking the dumb question here alongside Kaylee lions, 211 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 3: how do you know all of this? Is this based 212 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 3: on satellite imagery? You're speaking like you're on the ground 213 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 3: in Moscow. 214 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 6: Well, I'd probably be put in jail if I was there. 215 00:10:56,600 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 6: So a New Year's resolution, don't go to jail this year. No, 216 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 6: most of this comes from bath It's not magic. One 217 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 6: of the fascinating things about war in the information age, 218 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 6: when everything is counted and tracked, is if you take 219 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 6: time to use basic data science, which your listeners and 220 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 6: viewers know well, I mean everyone who has a Bloomberg 221 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 6: terminal has been doing this for decades. It's using data 222 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 6: patterns that you find to statistically isolate key patterns and trends. 223 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 6: And in this case, that means we can analyze how 224 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 6: Russia attacks Ukraine on a daily basis and test a 225 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 6: series of hypotheses and really isolate where we find particularly 226 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 6: interesting correlations. And in this case, the major correlation we 227 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 6: found in that operational fires in the Age of Punishment 228 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 6: was that decoupling of what we would call operational art 229 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 6: or large scale campaign ground maneuver. So when combined arms 230 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 6: armies target parts of the Ukrainian front from these deep 231 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,959 Speaker 6: missile attacks, and that runs contrary to what we've seen 232 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 6: in the modern history of war and does look a 233 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 6: lot more like a theorists like Duhey who wrote theories 234 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 6: of air power really before World War Two. 235 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 2: Ben, you spoke a moment ago about Russia's ability to 236 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: continue to do this because of the support it's still 237 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 2: receiving from China and Iran. Is that indefinite? Can it 238 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 2: keep up this pace in perpetuity or will even the 239 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,839 Speaker 2: flow of support from those adversaries not be able to 240 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 2: keep pace with this kind of strike concentration we're seeing 241 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 2: like this. 242 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, you're asking the critical question because every time economists 243 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 6: have believed the Russian economy was about to fail, it 244 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 6: holds on for just another day. It's as if suffering 245 00:12:43,200 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 6: is becoming a way of life. So in some sense, 246 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 6: Russia has already converted its economy to look more like 247 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 6: North Korea than Germany. And I don't think that's going 248 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 6: to stop when this war ends. So the real answer 249 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 6: that question becomes the resiliency of that war economy. Now 250 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 6: again the numbers are if we compare the volume of 251 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 6: Shaheed these one way attack drones, and we know that 252 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 6: Russia built its own domestic manufacturing, so it no longer 253 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:13,840 Speaker 6: imports them purely from Iran. It basically builds the drone. Sadly, 254 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 6: it still smuggles and electronics from around the world to 255 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 6: guide these drones. We've seen a ten times increase. 256 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:21,440 Speaker 7: Now put that. 257 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 6: Think about that for a second. In the space of 258 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 6: the year, despite sanctions, despite a high interest rates, despite 259 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 6: a low currency, despite every negative economic indicator you could 260 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 6: think of, Russia has still managed to increase its production 261 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 6: of Shaheed drones by ten times. The Department of Defense 262 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:46,079 Speaker 6: Secretary Hegsith would I mean literally probably hug any defense 263 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 6: manufacturer who could promise that degree of scalability. We can't 264 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 6: do it in the years right now. So there is 265 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 6: a lot there's something going on behind the scenes. We 266 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 6: know China is providing. 267 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 4: That when we have more time. 268 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 3: That's Ben Jensen csis from Julia du Haey to Russian firepower. 269 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:07,439 Speaker 4: We appreciate the conversation on Bloomberg. 270 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:13,200 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 271 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 272 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 273 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 274 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 275 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 4: I hope you had a long weekend. 276 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: By the way, I know a lot of people who 277 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 3: are out there cooking hamburgers and hot dogs and doing 278 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: the thing that you do. Is I kept hearing on 279 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: the local news over the course of the weekend the 280 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 3: unofficial start to summer, right the start to the US 281 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 3: driving season. 282 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 4: Let's check gas prices. That's what we do this time 283 00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 4: of year. 284 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 3: Even though, of course Memorial Day is dedicated to remembering 285 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 3: and honoring the men and women who died for this 286 00:14:55,960 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 3: country serving in the military. That's why we saw some 287 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 3: moving observances over the weekend. Saw more than a thousand 288 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 3: graduate at West Point on Saturday. We saw the annual 289 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 3: presidential visit to Arlington yesterday, not only the laying of 290 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 3: the wreath, but also the speech inside the Amphitheater. 291 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 4: Both of these events for Donald Trump brought. 292 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 3: Up a lot of talk about political norms, taste, purpose, 293 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 3: as the President donned a baseball cap a MAGA cap 294 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 3: at the West Point graduation, spoke for about an hour 295 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 3: attacking drag shows and critical race theory, talking about the 296 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 3: Golden age that was beginning in the military because of him. 297 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 3: The President even went so far as to talk about 298 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 3: trophy wives, referring to a real estate developer who he 299 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: thought somehow did it wrong. 300 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 8: Listen, and he sold his company and he had nothing 301 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 8: to do. He ended up getting a divorce, found a 302 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 8: new wife. Could you say a trophy wife? I guess 303 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 8: we can say a trophy wife. It didn't work out 304 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 8: too well. But that doesn't work out too well. I 305 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 8: must tell you a lot of trophy wives. Does it 306 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 8: work out? 307 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 4: I guess suggesting that some do. 308 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 3: When I heard that Frank Lunz was there, and of 309 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 3: course he was there. Frank is giving an enormous amount 310 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 3: of his time to West Point. Right now, he's talked 311 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 3: to us about the work that he's doing with the 312 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 3: cadets as an instructor. He's also learning a lot, which 313 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: is why we love to talk to Frank about it. 314 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 3: He was there for the commencement address politics and communications 315 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 3: consultant Famed Polster, as we like to say, And in fact, 316 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: the CEO of fil Frank Lunz, is with us live 317 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 3: right now, and it's great to have you. 318 00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 4: Frank. 319 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 3: Back on Bloomberg, I want to be careful with the 320 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:55,239 Speaker 3: questions I asked, did this seem like a typical graduation 321 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 3: speech at West Point? 322 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 9: It did not from the very beginning. And President Trump 323 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 9: did something that no other president has done. First off, 324 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,000 Speaker 9: they only come every four years, So you got the 325 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 9: Secretary of Defense, you have the head the Joint Chiefs. 326 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 9: There are people who come. Secretary of I believe Secretary 327 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 9: of State also shows up. So the president only comes 328 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 9: once every four years. And President Trump wanted to do this, 329 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 9: and of course West Point will welcome the president if 330 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 9: the President wants to come. But he did something no 331 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 9: president had ever done, which is he recognized cadets from 332 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 9: the podium for their exceptional and extraordinary leadership, for their 333 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 9: truly almost unimaginable capability to get things done both intellectually, 334 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 9: militarily and physically. And what I enjoyed most is that 335 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 9: he invited them to come up to the podium and 336 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 9: say a few words as the ultimate recognition of what 337 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:03,159 Speaker 9: they'd achieved and what they were about to do, and 338 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 9: that's never been done before. And the cadets absolutely loved 339 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 9: it because it said that they matter. West Point as 340 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 9: an academy produced as the finest young men and women 341 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 9: in the country. They do it through training, they do 342 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 9: it through character, they do it through and educational background 343 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 9: that is so broad and so comprehensive, And to recognize 344 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 9: those cadets personally for their achievements was really special, and 345 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 9: the cadets loved it. 346 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:39,680 Speaker 3: He did it, of course in his own way. You 347 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 3: heard the remark about trophy wives, the drag shows, talking 348 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 3: about the former president wearing a hat. 349 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 4: None of that was. 350 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 3: Included in your analysis as someone who was there, Frank, 351 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 3: And that's why we wanted to bring you on to 352 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 3: have a sense of not only how it went over 353 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 3: for people who were there, the cadets and their families, 354 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 3: but also to get a sense of howpolitical this actually 355 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 3: was and how positive or optimistic it may or may 356 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 3: not have felt while we were there. Are we paying 357 00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,640 Speaker 3: attention to all the wrong things? 358 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 9: Well, remember that cadets cannot discuss. They can discuss, but 359 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 9: they cannot exhibit partisan behavior, and they don't. And what's 360 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 9: amazing about these young men and women. Is that unlike Harvard, 361 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 9: and I get yelled at for doing this, but I'm 362 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 9: doing it anyway. Unlike the other universities who stage protests, 363 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 9: Unlike the attempts of other students to disrupt and prevent 364 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 9: the exchange of ideas, at West Point, there is an 365 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 9: attitude of respect, a commitment to decency and civility, and 366 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 9: in the end, they want to hear every opinion of 367 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 9: every individual and they do not wish to engage in 368 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 9: partisan politics, so that what the President says they saw 369 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 9: as entertaining, they saw as being enlightening. But they don't 370 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 9: come to a conclusion because they're there to learn. They're 371 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 9: not performers. They're not about showing their politics and their parisanship. 372 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 9: They're there to represent the academy and most importantly, to 373 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 9: defend the Constitution. And that's the thing I wish that 374 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 9: your listeners really understood. A cadet doesn't take an oath 375 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 9: to the president, doesn't take an oath to the country. 376 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:31,719 Speaker 9: Even they take an oath to uphold the Constitution. And 377 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 9: that's what makes this so special, and that's why I 378 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 9: was so happy that it was the president, not just 379 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 9: the Secretary of the Defense or not just the Chairman 380 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 9: of the Joint Chiefs. That the President wanted to be 381 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 9: there to say thank you to the cadets from a 382 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 9: grateful nation, and to me, that's what we should be 383 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 9: focused on. 384 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 3: And we are as we spend time with Frank Lunz 385 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 3: live on Bloomberg, knowing the honorable intentions of these cadets. 386 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 3: Did the President comport himself appropriately. 387 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 9: There's some stuff that he said that that was ad 388 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:13,360 Speaker 9: lib There's some stuff that was about things that were 389 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:18,719 Speaker 9: not directly involving the cadets and involving the decisions that 390 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 9: will need to be made over the weeks, months and 391 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 9: years to follow. But the President made a commitment to 392 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 9: the military that was uncompromising, and made a commitment to 393 00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 9: the cadets that they would have the best equipment, that 394 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,200 Speaker 9: they would have the best innovation, that they would be 395 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 9: represented well. And I take the President at his word, 396 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 9: just as I was there for Joe Biden's convention speech 397 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 9: last year, which is quite different. And I appreciate how 398 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 9: the participants carry themselves and how they have made a 399 00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 9: commitment to serve whoever is the president in whatever way 400 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 9: they're asked to serve as long as it upholds the Constitution. 401 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 9: Look at consider this. Every institution in America, education, politics, law, 402 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 9: the courts, Congress, healthcare. Every institution is at all time 403 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:25,159 Speaker 9: lows in terms of trust and credibility, But not the military, 404 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 9: because the military doesn't take sides. The military doesn't approve 405 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 9: or disapprove of someone because of what partisanship they come from, 406 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 9: what initial they have after the name, whether our or 407 00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,959 Speaker 9: D and West Point is the tip of the sphere 408 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 9: for those institutions, and so they don't have this conversation 409 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 9: about whether something was great or horrible. They simply have 410 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 9: a conversation about what they need to know to serve, 411 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 9: and serve with exceptionalism, serve in an extraordinary way, because 412 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 9: excellent isn't good enough for them. These are not the 413 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 9: top ten percent of America. The is the top one 414 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 9: percent of America, and they deliver it every single day. 415 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 3: Did you get to talk to the president at all 416 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:13,440 Speaker 3: while he was there, Frank. 417 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 9: I did last year with Biden. This president did not. 418 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 9: Because he wanted to spend more time with the cadets. 419 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 9: He did not have the same kind of interaction with 420 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 9: some of the faculty. And I appreciate that because in 421 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 9: the end, Yes, I'd like to shake his hand, and 422 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:30,919 Speaker 9: I'm a collector of challenge coins, so I'd love to 423 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 9: get his challenge coin. But in the end, I'd rather 424 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,560 Speaker 9: have him to spend more time with the cadets and 425 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 9: less time with us. And his speech, which is fifty 426 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,359 Speaker 9: seven minutes long, was longer than past speech is because 427 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 9: he had more to say. 428 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 3: Fast forward to Arlington on Memorial Day and we can 429 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 3: talk about the speech if you want. And I, by 430 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 3: the way, people were laughing and applauding in the amphitheater, 431 00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,400 Speaker 3: but he proceeded the occasion with a post on truth 432 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 3: social and he's been known to do these on holidays. Frank, 433 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,320 Speaker 3: Happy Memorial Day to all it said, including the scum 434 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 3: that spent the last four years trying to destroy our country, 435 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 3: talking about taking in mentally insane migrants, warped radical democrats, 436 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:18,399 Speaker 3: US hating judges. How do you reconcile that with the 437 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 3: spirit and meaning of Memorial Day. 438 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,600 Speaker 9: I accept that point, and I accept and embrace that 439 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 9: point to Memorial Day is let me try this again. 440 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 9: Memorial Day is not the beginning of summer. It's not 441 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:38,199 Speaker 9: a drive component of driving. It is a honorable and 442 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 9: solemn occasion where we recognize and show our respect for 443 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 9: those who gave the ultimate sacrifice. And it's a day 444 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 9: that I'm more intimidated by than any other, because, let's 445 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 9: be candid, I may wear a polo shirt from West Point, 446 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 9: I may teach here, but I did not serve, and 447 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 9: I appreciate with the very inside me those people who do. 448 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 9: And I recognize and respect those families who have loved 449 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 9: ones who are buried there. I wish our language is 450 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 9: more appropriate to the occasion. I wish that we stop 451 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 9: talking about grilling hot dogs and hamburgers and start talking 452 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 9: about how great our military is. And I wish that 453 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 9: we use language that not only upholds the tradition of 454 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,439 Speaker 9: Memorial Day, but raises it to the level of the 455 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 9: holiday that it truly is to pay our deepest respects 456 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 9: and our gratitude for those who serve this country so well, 457 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 9: not just for death. 458 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,640 Speaker 4: Fil live on. 459 00:25:55,640 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 460 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 461 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 462 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 463 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: live on YouTube's. 464 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 4: Feeling like it's Monday here. It is Tuesday. I hope 465 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:19,959 Speaker 4: a short week for you. 466 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,159 Speaker 3: Thanks for joining us on the little Monday edition of 467 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio Channel 468 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 3: one twenty one. 469 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,120 Speaker 4: Yes on YouTube as well. 470 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,680 Speaker 3: Search Bloomberg Business News Live to catch our live stream, 471 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 3: and now you can watch us on Bloomberg Originals. Boy, 472 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 3: you add the podcast, and it's pretty hard to hide 473 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 3: from this program as we look at politics here in 474 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 3: Washington and abroad after Memorial Day, and a lot of 475 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:45,800 Speaker 3: news on Harvard that I want to get to the 476 00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,320 Speaker 3: panel with here the President Trump moving to cancel all 477 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:53,159 Speaker 3: remaining federal contracts, wants to take money destined for Harvard 478 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,120 Speaker 3: give it to trade schools, and now the administration is weighing, 479 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 3: according to Politico, at least requiring all Ford's students applying 480 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 3: to study in the US to undergo social media vetting. 481 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 3: A lot to get into here with our panel. Rick 482 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:12,240 Speaker 3: Davis joins Republican strategist Bloomberg Politics contributor of Course partner 483 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 3: at Stone Court Capital, alongside democratic strategist Jim Kessler, the 484 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 3: executive vice president Policy Third Way. Here in Washington, it's 485 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 3: great to see you both, gentlemen, welcome back. There was 486 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 3: a time when both Rick Davis and Jim Kesler were 487 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 3: on opposite sides of the aisle in the United States Senate, 488 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 3: and it's always an honor for us to put them 489 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 3: together here. Rick, I want to ask you about Harvard, 490 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 3: because the onslaught continues, but much like the threatened tariffs, 491 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 3: with some exceptions, it has been largely threats that the 492 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 3: President is lobbing at Harvard, or reports of threats in 493 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 3: the case of this Politico story on foreign students being 494 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,880 Speaker 3: blocked by attending Harvard. 495 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 4: How much of this is real? 496 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 3: I mean, the idea of taking money and giving it 497 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 3: to trade schools, is that something the White House has 498 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 3: actually written a plan for or the President amusing on 499 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:01,640 Speaker 3: truth social. 500 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 10: I think that you cannot underestimate the social media a 501 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 10: musings of Donald Trump with policy development in the White House. 502 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,639 Speaker 10: I mean, we've seen time and time again a post 503 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:20,880 Speaker 10: out of nowhere, no seemingly policy initiatives directed toward an issue. 504 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 10: And yet when Donald Trump posts something on true social 505 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 10: it has the strength of a policy determination, maybe slightly 506 00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 10: weaker than an executive order written from his desk, but 507 00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 10: there's no question there's a war on between the administration Harvard. 508 00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 10: There were a billion dollars worth of grants canceled by 509 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 10: the administration, and Harvard is suing to get that money 510 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 10: and more back. So the courts will ultimately be the 511 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 10: arbiter of that. But this latest effort obviously shows that 512 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 10: they've been doing some work inside the administration because there 513 00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 10: are a lot of things that Harvard does for the government, 514 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 10: almost as a business training cabinet subcabinet members on various 515 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 10: aspects of crisis management and things like that. And what 516 00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 10: the administration has done now is says, in addition to 517 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 10: these grants, I'm going to cancel the business relationship between 518 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 10: Harvard and the administration, which goes back to the Kennedy administration, 519 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:23,320 Speaker 10: I said a long time in coming. And so you 520 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 10: see the upening of the ante. And of course you mentioned, 521 00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 10: you know, kicking all these foreign students off of the 522 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 10: Harvard roles. They can go somewhere else if they want, 523 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 10: but they can't go to Harvard. So it is it 524 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:41,040 Speaker 10: is a serious effort by this administration to undermine Harvard 525 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:47,200 Speaker 10: its finances, it's admission policy, it's ideology, and I see 526 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 10: no reason why they would demurre in this because to them, 527 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 10: this is a symbolic conflict. It's not so much about 528 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 10: Harvard but what Harvard represents, and this is what they're 529 00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:58,080 Speaker 10: opposed to. 530 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,720 Speaker 3: Therefore it it doesn't always matter the way it turns out. 531 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 3: Jim Kessler, the President, writing as well, I'm considering taking 532 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 3: three billion dollars of grant money away from very anti 533 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 3: Semitic Harvard and giving it to trade schools all. 534 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:12,920 Speaker 4: Across the land. 535 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,400 Speaker 3: What a great investment that would be for the USA 536 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,920 Speaker 3: and so badly needed. When you step back and consider 537 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 3: all of the threats and actions the administration is taking, 538 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 3: and Rick did a pretty nice job there walking through them. Here, Jim, 539 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 3: does it matter if he closes the deals on any 540 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 3: of these or it's just about getting caught in the 541 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:34,719 Speaker 3: act of hating on Harvard. 542 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 11: I think it's more about getting caught in the act. 543 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 11: I think this is this. I think this is performance 544 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 11: alright by Donald Trump. I expect at least ninety percent 545 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,000 Speaker 11: of what he's trying to do to be struck down 546 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 11: by the courts. 547 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 7: It's unconstitutional. That doesn't mean that it won't. 548 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 11: Take some time for Harvard to get through this and 549 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 11: do some damage. But I think Trump gets to make 550 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:03,320 Speaker 11: a headline, then he gets to complain about the courts, 551 00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 11: and then and then he gets to blame the Jews 552 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 11: because he's also saying, look, I'm doing this because of 553 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 11: anti Semitism. I know of no Jewish organization in America 554 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,480 Speaker 11: that is looking to attack elite universities or Harvard University 555 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 11: in particular. It's actually something that makes Jewish people very, 556 00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 11: very uncomfortable that he's doing this and saying this is 557 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,560 Speaker 11: in the name of Jewish Americans. 558 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 7: So I think it's performance. 559 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 3: RD Well, I guess part of that performance would be 560 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 3: defunding NPR and PBS. This is now going to court. 561 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 3: This brought us back to the first of May, and 562 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 3: NPR is now suing. 563 00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 4: Rick. 564 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 3: I'm sure you've seen this National Public Radio suing over 565 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,960 Speaker 3: the executive order that would cut federal funding. Lawyers are 566 00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 3: going to make a lot of money no matter who 567 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,360 Speaker 3: wins any of these cases here, But this is something 568 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,240 Speaker 3: that Donald Trump. I feel like they're coming out of 569 00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,840 Speaker 3: the same file here. It's good politics to seek to 570 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,200 Speaker 3: defund NPR, whether it happens or not. 571 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,680 Speaker 10: Do you agree, Yeah, I think this really does fall 572 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:17,000 Speaker 10: into that performance art category. We know that Donald Trump 573 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 10: prizes that most of his best friends in Congress are 574 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 10: the biggest performing artists of all time. If they could 575 00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 10: give a Congressional Emmy Award, a number of them would 576 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,560 Speaker 10: win it. But the bottom line is it's a disruption 577 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 10: tactic too. His base wants him to be disruptive. Take 578 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 10: apart the mantles of the deep state, and the megaphone 579 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:49,200 Speaker 10: of the deep state is NPR and PBS. And so 580 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 10: whether he's successful or not, he will get credit from 581 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:58,200 Speaker 10: a very large portion of his base. Political support comes 582 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,960 Speaker 10: from people who are going to PLoud this. And then, 583 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,080 Speaker 10: as I totally agree with Jim, the outcome is really 584 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 10: irrelevant because he's already banked the effort for trying, and 585 00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 10: in this case, results don't matter. The effort is what 586 00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:14,840 Speaker 10: really is going to pay off for him politically. 587 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 3: Well, I'll tell you what, there's nothing like Pledge Week 588 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 3: at an NPR station. Jim Kessler, isn't Public Radio just 589 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 3: going to make a boatload of money on This is 590 00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,720 Speaker 3: the biggest advertising campaign for NPR they could buye. 591 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,520 Speaker 11: Well, you get into Trump's crosshairs and it's a great 592 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 11: fundraising opportunity. For NPR and for members of Congress. Look, 593 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,480 Speaker 11: I think it's a twin edge sword. These organizations aren't 594 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 11: used to this type of fight. They're often used to 595 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 11: a fight about, you know, going against Congress. There, that's 596 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 11: Congress is the one that has often been hostile to NPR. 597 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,040 Speaker 7: Democrats have generally saved NPR. 598 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 11: But I also think some of the things that Trump 599 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 11: is doing is going beyond the performance hard and that's 600 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 11: looking at social media posts of people. And I'm just thinking, 601 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:06,240 Speaker 11: like I would not be able to pass a Trump 602 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,759 Speaker 11: test on social media. Not to get into the administration, 603 00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,719 Speaker 11: of course I wouldn't get into the administration, but to 604 00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:16,200 Speaker 11: be even considered a good American. So you talk about 605 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:20,680 Speaker 11: deep state. If the state under Donald Trump is looking 606 00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 11: at your social media posts to put you on a 607 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 11: naughty list or a nice list, that affects a lot 608 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:27,880 Speaker 11: of people in this country. 609 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe they could sell Trump tote bags. In the 610 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 3: middle of all this, Rick, I want to ask you 611 00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 3: about the conversation that we had with Frank Luntz earlier 612 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:40,560 Speaker 3: this hour, because the President of the United States spoke 613 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 3: at the West Point graduation. Is something he wanted to 614 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 3: do that took place Saturday, complete with the maga hat 615 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,759 Speaker 3: talk of trophy wives and drag shows. Then spoke at 616 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 3: the Amphitheater in an annual address, of course, at Arlington 617 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 3: that is in honor, of course, for the commander in 618 00:34:56,520 --> 00:35:00,399 Speaker 3: chief to lay the reef to speak to go Star 619 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:05,359 Speaker 3: families and Americans who've gathered on the most solemn of holidays. 620 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 3: Does any of this stuff matter, Rick, when the president's 621 00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 3: talking about winning the election, insulting the former president? Or 622 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 3: is this just kind of the new era of politics. 623 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:19,799 Speaker 3: When I watched that speech at Arlington, there were people 624 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:24,359 Speaker 3: who were laughing and clapping, and I'm asking, honestly, if 625 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 3: any of these conventions matter. 626 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,000 Speaker 10: It's hard to tell in the environment we're in right now, 627 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,239 Speaker 10: because we're inundated with it. I don't think there's a 628 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:36,440 Speaker 10: speech that goes by, regardless of how important ceremony is, 629 00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,800 Speaker 10: that the president doesn't take an opportunity to take a 630 00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:45,319 Speaker 10: shot at his enemies, both perceived and former. You know, 631 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,800 Speaker 10: in politics, you usually if you lose an election, you know, 632 00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:51,960 Speaker 10: all the attacks go away. Not anymore. I mean the 633 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,759 Speaker 10: response to the Biden people are like, hey, dude, you'll 634 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:59,880 Speaker 10: want cut it off. But the reality is going to 635 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 10: hallowed ground like the military Academy in West Point, and 636 00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:12,120 Speaker 10: not just reading the script right the speech itself, I 637 00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,360 Speaker 10: agree with Frank Lunch there are elements of it that 638 00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 10: were fantastic and inspirational for the cadets. But then to 639 00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,320 Speaker 10: go off script and just you know, do a campaign 640 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:28,319 Speaker 10: riff and even something's just personal anecdotes for him, just 641 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 10: wholly inappropriate. And yet you're right if it happens every day, 642 00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,600 Speaker 10: maybe three or four times a day, and the press 643 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,600 Speaker 10: reports it sooner or later, I think the public does 644 00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,200 Speaker 10: get a little bit immune to it. I mean you 645 00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,960 Speaker 10: see it in his pulling, where you know, regardless of 646 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:46,920 Speaker 10: what he's done over the last one hundred and twenty days, 647 00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 10: the public basically has the same perception of him before 648 00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 10: he was president as he is now. It's not getting better, 649 00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:57,280 Speaker 10: but it's stable. But I would say kudos to the military. 650 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,560 Speaker 10: They stay above it. Frank Luntz's comments of them not 651 00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 10: being political is the reason that in the latest Harvard 652 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 10: Harris poll, the approval rating of the US military sixty 653 00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 10: nine percent, as twenty percent more than Donald Trump will 654 00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 10: ever have. And so the reality is, I think the 655 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 10: public does get it. 656 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 3: Really something Jim, I'm curious your take on all of this. You're, 657 00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:24,960 Speaker 3: of course the Democrat on the panel, and I know 658 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,880 Speaker 3: you're not a fan of Donald Trump, but I wonder 659 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 3: if this stuff matters anymore in Washington. I had to 660 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 3: notice the President showed up for the reeflaying at the 661 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 3: Zoom of the Unknown with. 662 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,120 Speaker 4: Pete Hagseth and jd. Vance. 663 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,240 Speaker 3: Traditionally the President would be there with the first Lady. 664 00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 3: Does any of this kind of stuff matter anymore? 665 00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 11: Well, let's just assume that Donald Trump knows what he's 666 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 11: doing when he's up there giving this sort of speech 667 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,800 Speaker 11: where he's rambling on and doing the quote unquote weave. 668 00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 4: I don't think he gives just a minute. 669 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,720 Speaker 3: By the way, Jim, I don't want to cut you off. 670 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,080 Speaker 3: Go ahead, Jim, we have just one minute, okay. 671 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 11: I don't think he gives the type of speech that 672 00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,440 Speaker 11: he gave at West Point. If the economy was going well, 673 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,759 Speaker 11: if people were satisfied, if the situation in Ukraine was 674 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:19,360 Speaker 11: getting better and moving towards a resolution, if the country 675 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 11: felt that things were headed on the right track, you 676 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 11: give this kind of speech because you need to distract 677 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:28,360 Speaker 11: from the dissatisfaction that people have right now over the 678 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 11: first five months of the Trump presidency. 679 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:33,440 Speaker 7: So we're talking about this. 680 00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,959 Speaker 11: Rather than high prices, rather than a slowing economy, rather 681 00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:43,360 Speaker 11: than a trade war, rather than him making huge tariff 682 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 11: pronouncements and then reversing himself within ninety six hours. So 683 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,839 Speaker 11: I do believe there's a method to the madness, and 684 00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,480 Speaker 11: it's to avoid a lot of the bad news that's 685 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:54,080 Speaker 11: happening organically out there. 686 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,000 Speaker 4: Jim Kessler with a Method to the madness. Jim's at 687 00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:58,480 Speaker 4: Third Way. 688 00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:02,839 Speaker 3: Rick Davis, partner at Stone Capital, Bloomberg Politics contributor. Many 689 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:07,840 Speaker 3: thanks to both of you here on Bloomberg. Thanks for 690 00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,960 Speaker 3: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to 691 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 3: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever 692 00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,799 Speaker 3: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 693 00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 3: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg 694 00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:21,360 Speaker 3: dot com.