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Speaker 2: Nine thousand dollars in counting, Kaylee, Donald Trump found in
Speaker 2: contempt of court actually happened today, And we're not done yet,
Speaker 2: I say in counting, because there's another hearing on violating
Speaker 2: his gag order set for Thursday. So this could be
Speaker 2: the beginning of a new cycle in which we see
Speaker 2: multiple thousand dollars fines rolling through this trial.
Speaker 3: Sure, but the judge even is disappointed, perhaps with how
Speaker 3: little he can find Trump for these violations. As you say,
Speaker 3: nine thousand dollars for nine different counts. He mentioned in
Speaker 3: this order the incredible wealth of this defendant, in particulars
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is a billionaire, at least on paper. And then, therefore,
Speaker 3: in order to deter him from further violations, did warn
Speaker 3: in the order the Court will not tolerate continued wilful
Speaker 3: violations of its lawful orders, and, if necessary and appropriate,
Speaker 3: under the circumstances, it will impose incarceratory punishment threatening jail time.
Speaker 2: Yes, incarceratory punishment not going to happen is what we
Speaker 2: have been told by every legal analyst in this case,
Speaker 2: not to a former president. The judge probably knows that
Speaker 2: too well.
Speaker 3: I guess we'll see us another legal analyst.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's find out agrees with that view.
Speaker 3: Robert Wurders with us now he is a criminal and
Speaker 3: constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to balance of power, sir.
Speaker 3: It does raise the question of whether or not Trump
Speaker 3: will ever be deterred from violating the gag order if
Speaker 3: he doesn't actually face any jail time for it.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Does do you think the former president knows that this
Speaker 3: threat might be entirely empty or do you not think
Speaker 3: that it is so?
Speaker 5: Well, if I was the judge, I think about putting
Speaker 5: in jail if he continues to violate it. The judge
Speaker 5: is being very careful. If you read his gag order,
Speaker 5: he talks about or at least his findings here. He
Speaker 5: talks about being very mindful of mister Trump's First Amendment rights,
Speaker 5: especially as a candidate. He's betting over backwards. But the
Speaker 5: bottom line, this criminal defendant has to start behaving appropriately
Speaker 5: and you cannot be attacking witnesses on social media media
Speaker 5: and in the public and it has to stop. And
Speaker 5: the judge is going to probably be left with no choice,
Speaker 5: even though he realizes that mister Trump may then try
Speaker 5: to use that politically if he gets put in jail.
Speaker 2: No choice but to incarcerate the former president. Nobody sees
Speaker 2: that happening, really though, do they.
Speaker 5: Well, it certainly could if I was when.
Speaker 2: I think, as the Secret Service going to get in
Speaker 2: the cell with them, how do they do that?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've kind of thought about that sometime. I mean,
Speaker 5: you know, the Secret Service if he gets convicted on
Speaker 5: one of the federal charge. You know, Secret Service agents
Speaker 5: usually go to Florida, you know, after with the president,
Speaker 5: and the fact they would have to hang out in Levenworth,
Speaker 5: Kansas may not have been what they were they wanted
Speaker 5: to sign on for if he gets convicted of the
Speaker 5: federal charge. But yeah, there's all kinds of logistical problems,
Speaker 5: and the judge knows this, and that's what he's got
Speaker 5: the concern. And this is all part of the reason
Speaker 5: why Donald Trump is getting preferential treatment that no other
Speaker 5: criminal defendant would get but at some point we have
Speaker 5: to respect the process. And if a criminal defendant is
Speaker 5: continuing to make public statements that impune the system, that
Speaker 5: impugned his own trial and threaten witnesses, calling them sleeves bags,
Speaker 5: which is what he's done here, the court has to
Speaker 5: step in and do something. And I think the judges
Speaker 5: left with frustration and what it would be.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it begs the question to your point.
Speaker 3: He already has made his feelings about these potential witnesses
Speaker 3: quite known, calling them sleeves bags on multiple occasions. And
Speaker 3: sure part of this order was that he has to
Speaker 3: take down those true social posts in question or remove
Speaker 3: a few items from his campaign website. But isn't the
Speaker 3: damage already done?
Speaker 5: Oh? It most certainly is. I think what the judges
Speaker 5: trying to do is stop any further damage. So what's
Speaker 5: to stop then this particular criminal defendant from all of
Speaker 5: a sudden posting like he actually has that this jury
Speaker 5: is unfair obviously, and then people start to take matters
Speaker 5: into their own hands and trying to find out who
Speaker 5: the jurors are and influence those jurors. Look, you wouldn't
Speaker 5: put up with a mafia defendant or a you know,
Speaker 5: homicidal defendants behaving this way. So you shouldn't put up
Speaker 5: with mister Trump. I mean, you know, if he wants
Speaker 5: to attain the highest office in the country, he should
Speaker 5: understand how things work and how the rule of law works.
Speaker 5: And you know, I guess the judge would face some frustration,
Speaker 5: But like I said at the start, I would seriously
Speaker 5: start considering that. And he's warned Trump about it, and
Speaker 5: he's going through a very by step process to the
Speaker 5: point where the judge may have no other choice.
Speaker 2: Well, the optics would certainly be historic. As we spend
Speaker 2: time with Robert mcwad or, criminal and Constitutional law attorney Robert,
Speaker 2: there is testimony taking place today. In fact, we're hearing
Speaker 2: from Gary Farrow, a banker who helped Michael Cohen establish
Speaker 2: the account that was used to pay off Stormy Daniels.
Speaker 2: We're going to hear a lot of sensational testimony we
Speaker 2: already did, I think arguably with David Pecker. How important
Speaker 2: is this business being had today in this week.
Speaker 5: Well, it's crucial because it's forming all the steps for
Speaker 5: the prosecutor to show the underlining crime. I also must say,
Speaker 5: you know, the prosecution has put on a very smart case.
Speaker 5: What they have done, and they didn't single this signaled
Speaker 5: this beforehand, is they have actually broadened this case. It's
Speaker 5: not just about Stormy Daniels, and it's not just about
Speaker 5: even Susan mcdodle. It's about a much broader conspiracy that
Speaker 5: Donald Trump entered into to make himself president of the
Speaker 5: United States by manipulating the media and violating campaign finance.
Speaker 5: So Stormy Daniels and Karen mcdoodle and all the other
Speaker 5: people are just one small part of this broader scheme.
Speaker 5: And the testimony from mister Pecker and the banker today
Speaker 5: shows the much bigger scheme. I mean, this was not
Speaker 5: just one bank account used to pay Stormy Daniels. This
Speaker 5: was a little slush fund that should have been politically
Speaker 5: reported because it's helping a candidate achieve office, and it's
Speaker 5: being used for all kinds of little nefarious things, including
Speaker 5: killing stories and providing payments to people to make sure
Speaker 5: the stories don't go. And that's what the National Acquired
Speaker 5: editor provided, and now the banker is providing the mechanism
Speaker 5: for how that was done, and it's step by step
Speaker 5: and much broader. What the implication of that is is okay,
Speaker 5: go ahead and attack Stormy Daniels. And even if you
Speaker 5: don't believe her, look at the much bigger picture. She
Speaker 5: was only one small part. And that's what the prosecution
Speaker 5: has done well.
Speaker 3: And ultimate, we don't even know how many witnesses will
Speaker 3: be called, as they haven't revealed the full list. We
Speaker 3: also don't know, Robert, if Donald Trump will testify himself
Speaker 3: And pardon me, I didn't go to law school, so
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is an ill informed question,
Speaker 3: But would he be limited by a gag order as
Speaker 3: to what he could say on the stand when testifying
Speaker 3: in his own defense or is that actually an opportunity
Speaker 3: for him to safely plead his case.
Speaker 5: Well, first of all, your question is perfectly intelligent. He
Speaker 5: would not be limited, and that's actually the point. You know.
Speaker 5: What we try to do with trials is protect the
Speaker 5: integrity of the process so that you don't have extraneous
Speaker 5: evidence coming in from tweets and things like that. In
Speaker 5: a trial, he can take the west witness stand and
Speaker 5: testify as to any relevant thing that relates to this charge.
Speaker 5: He can say all kinds of things that he is
Speaker 5: not allowed to say. In another public situation, because he
Speaker 5: will be under oath, he was subject to cross examination,
Speaker 5: and he will be under a process, so he most
Speaker 5: certainly can. So he is not really being gag nor
Speaker 5: is his First Amendment rights really being implicated, because he
Speaker 5: will get a chance to speak like any other American
Speaker 5: who's facing trial, and he will get a chance to
Speaker 5: give his side of the story.
Speaker 2: You wouldn't let him do that if you were representing him,
Speaker 2: would you.
Speaker 5: Well, First of all, a defendant has an absolute Fifth
Speaker 5: Amendment right to testify. It is their decision and it
Speaker 5: is always there to say. If I were his lawyer,
Speaker 5: I would attempt to sit on him, to keep him
Speaker 5: away from the witness stand for two reasons. One is
Speaker 5: he is a uniquely bad advocate for himself. And number two,
Speaker 5: it opens the door for all kinds of what would
Speaker 5: be called impeachment evidence. So, for instance, if you're testifying,
Speaker 5: I can bring in evidence that you're just a bald
Speaker 5: faced liar. Now I can't just bring and evidence if
Speaker 5: you don't testify, because the evidence would go to impeach you.
Speaker 5: It's not whether you're a liar or not is not
Speaker 5: the evidence. It's the fact that your testimony, cannot believe
Speaker 5: it on the matters that are important. So when you testify,
Speaker 5: it opens the door for all kinds of things legally.
Speaker 5: So that's again one reason. And of course the first
Speaker 5: reason is Donald Trump. In every single situation historically where
Speaker 5: he has testified, he has failed and done very very poorly,
Speaker 5: and the jurors do not like him. And so for
Speaker 5: that reason. So as a criminal defense attorney, you know,
Speaker 5: I'm are all of a sudden getting nervous just at
Speaker 5: the thought that a defendant like him would testified. But
Speaker 5: it's their choice.
Speaker 2: This is why you want to make worder representing you
Speaker 2: when that day comes. Robert, it's good to see you again.
Speaker 2: I really appreciate the time. We've enjoyed the conversations. We
Speaker 2: look forward to the next one here because Kaylie, we've
Speaker 2: got at least another six weeks on this. We haven't
Speaker 2: even gotten to the sensational testimony that we're expecting. Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: of course, holding sway over the House of Representatives, and a
Speaker 2: lot of folks thought that Mike John and the Speaker
Speaker 2: of the House was safe, if only because of the
Speaker 2: bodyguard in the schoolyard named Donald Trump. But HACKEM Jeffrey
Speaker 2: showed up today too, and it looks like Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: is going to be holding that gavel for the rest
Speaker 2: of this Congress. Megan Scully joins US Live in Washington
Speaker 2: for a quick beat on this because it's an important
Speaker 2: development today that otherwise would be a lead story as
Speaker 2: you cover Congress for US here at Bloomberg. Megan, interesting development.
Speaker 2: Actually hear it from the leadership as opposed to a
Speaker 2: couple of Democrats have said they might stay home or
Speaker 2: vote to help Mike Johnson. The parties behind him.
Speaker 6: Now yes, So, as you said, Senate, our House Democratic
Speaker 6: leaders put out statements today pretty extraordinary, saying that they
Speaker 6: would basically move to save Speaker Johnson. But this is
Speaker 6: all very interesting because it was almost like they were
Speaker 6: trying to put out a fire that was almost out.
Speaker 6: The motion margin. Taylor Green's motion to vacate was all
Speaker 6: but dead and increasingly thought thinking perhaps you would not
Speaker 6: actually go to the floor to activate it. Then she
Speaker 6: immediately took to Twitter and indicated that it is likely
Speaker 6: that she will do that.
Speaker 3: Well, so then it raises the question of whether or
Speaker 3: not she's bluffing or she actually will do that, and,
Speaker 3: as she say, make everyone go on the record with
Speaker 3: a vote on this motion to table. Even if it
Speaker 3: gets tabled this time, there's nothing that would stop her
Speaker 3: from trying again and again and again and trying to
Speaker 3: see if Democratic resolve cracks.
Speaker 6: Right, Sure, she could keep trying. I think Donald Trump
Speaker 6: is a big wild card here. He has backed Speaker Johnson.
Speaker 6: He's also a close ally of Marjorie Taylor Green. She's
Speaker 6: not listening to him, we don't think this time around.
Speaker 6: But what happens next time? I think it also depends
Speaker 6: on what legislation they might take up in the intervening weeks,
Speaker 6: whether or not they he decides suddenly to move forward
Speaker 6: with the long stalled impeachment into President Biden. Now that
Speaker 6: could make him some friends.
Speaker 5: On the right.
Speaker 2: So did Hokim Jeffries just make his life more difficult.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to understand where we are in this whole
Speaker 2: saga here, because I know Marjorie Taylor Green wants to
Speaker 2: get everybody on the record. This potentially makes it impossible
Speaker 2: for him to be re elected as a Republican Speaker,
Speaker 2: but it keeps the job now, Yes, So is this
Speaker 2: good or bad friend?
Speaker 6: He becomes speaker in name only? Is that especially Marjorie
Speaker 6: Taylor Green called him the Democratic House Speaker in her tweet.
Speaker 2: Not a great look for Mike Johnson.
Speaker 6: No, it's not particularly somebody as conservative as Mike Johnson.
Speaker 6: Angie Craig, who is a gay member of Congress who
Speaker 6: staunchly opposes Johnson on his opposition two same sex marriages
Speaker 6: to you know, pretty much his full social agenda, put
Speaker 6: out a statement saying that she would support him, that
Speaker 6: she would vote to table this motion. Stunning, absolutely stunning
Speaker 6: that he where he is getting his support from right now.
Speaker 6: It's good for him in the short term, but in
Speaker 6: the long term, these aren't the people that he would
Speaker 6: traditionally have in his corner.
Speaker 3: Well, Marjorie Taylor Green is calling it the uniparty, and
Speaker 3: she said forcing this would be a coming out party
Speaker 3: for all of these people who are supposedly members of that.
Speaker 3: But maybe uniparty is just another way of freezing the
Speaker 3: idea of bipartisanship. Yeah, Megan, and frankly, the reality is,
Speaker 3: if anything further is going to make it out of
Speaker 3: this House of Representatives, it's going to need bipartisanship.
Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, I mean they've been relying on bipartisanship because
Speaker 6: the margin is so narrow and they're bound to be
Speaker 6: people who disagree. But going forward, I think he's going
Speaker 6: to have a very steep hill to climb, and we'll
Speaker 6: be relying more on democratic votes than ever before.
Speaker 2: We just spent months and months banging our heads against
Speaker 2: the wall trying to figure out a way to fund
Speaker 2: the government for the rest of this fiscal year. The
Speaker 2: President's already dropped his budget for the next one. There
Speaker 2: was a Republican hearing on a Republican budget. But it's
Speaker 2: an election year, so we're going to go all the
Speaker 2: way through the summer and fall doing nothing here, right,
Speaker 2: we'll smash into a deadline, kick the can in December
Speaker 2: or in October rather September thirtyth and the fiscal year ends,
Speaker 2: and nothing will be done until after the presidential election.
Speaker 2: Speaking anything close to what might be truth ish.
Speaker 6: Yes, there are some things they have to get done.
Speaker 6: First order of business is an FAA authorization, yes, right,
Speaker 6: which is becoming a Christmastry.
Speaker 2: In the next couple of weeks. We understand, we've talked
Speaker 2: about that a lot. When it comes to funding.
Speaker 6: Though, when it comes to funding.
Speaker 2: This speaker's weakened to the extent that you're talking about,
Speaker 2: this is going to be very difficult.
Speaker 6: Absolutely, But then is there emergency funding needs that need
Speaker 6: to be considered in the intervening months? You know, does
Speaker 6: Ukraine need more money? Does Israel need more money? Is
Speaker 6: there a natural disaster within the United States? Really rebuilding
Speaker 6: the collapse bridge in Baltimore? Yeah, still an open question.
Speaker 1: True.
Speaker 2: Jia also has not been attached to anything as of now.
Speaker 2: Megan Skully, great to see you, Thank you, Thank you.
Speaker 2: As always, you're.
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and thenroid Oro
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Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 2: As we turn our attention to the situation in Israel,
Speaker 2: which we can't talk about without mentioning the situation on
Speaker 2: Columbia University's campus where dozens of protesters have barricaded themselves
Speaker 2: now inside Hamilton Hall. This happened in the wee hours.
Speaker 2: It was after midnight. They barricaded the doors, they blocked
Speaker 2: the entrances, and this is going to be a standoff.
Speaker 2: It's just unclear how it ends. They've made it very
Speaker 2: clear that they will not be leaving without force and
Speaker 2: more where that came from cal Poly Humboldt, north of
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Students barricading themselves for a week in a
Speaker 2: building that includes the President's office. They have called it
Speaker 2: Intifada Hall. At least forty people in an encampment. University
Speaker 2: of Texas Austin arrested yesterday nine protesters. University of Flora
Speaker 2: taken into custody. Police and riot gear arresting people. Multiple
Speaker 2: people at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. This is a
Speaker 2: big deal domestically here for the Biden administration, and it
Speaker 2: is a big deal geo politically for the administration, which
Speaker 2: is why we wanted to get some time today with
Speaker 2: Dale Buckner. He's the CEO of Global Guardian, retired Army
Speaker 2: colonel who specializes in many of the functions that we're
Speaker 2: seeing the IDF pursue in their war against Hamas. Dale,
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. We're talking today. Importantly,
Speaker 2: I just gave you the backdrop on what's happening here
Speaker 2: on campuses. We're talking about a new ceasefire proposal that
Speaker 2: would include the transfer of hostages, Israel lowering the threshold
Speaker 2: the minimum number of hostages it needs apparently to agree
Speaker 2: to this at least short term truce.
Speaker 1: Dale.
Speaker 2: What would an exchange look like and what would that
Speaker 2: mean as a millilitary mission?
Speaker 7: Joe, So, I think one the exchange is clearly the
Speaker 7: closest we've been in the last two hundred plus days.
Speaker 7: Two we're talking about twenty to thirty three Israelis being
Speaker 7: hostages being exchanged for upward of nine hundred prisoners. Are
Speaker 7: the basic terms. Now, these terms can ebb and flow,
Speaker 7: but that's really as of this morning, what's kind of
Speaker 7: out in the open source, if you will. So from
Speaker 7: a peer logistical standpoint, there would be a military component
Speaker 7: of this to receive the Israeli hostages and to transfer
Speaker 7: the Palestinians back, So there is an element of logistics here.
Speaker 7: Clearly Egypt has taken a material role, even beyond what
Speaker 7: the Kataris were doing, and we're now starting to see
Speaker 7: real effects. So this is hopeful and we should be
Speaker 7: optimistic that we are as close to a deal as
Speaker 7: we've been in the last two hundred plus days.
Speaker 2: Dale, I want to ask you about the other potential
Speaker 2: outcome here, and that's hostage extraction, and that's something that
Speaker 2: you used to specialize in. Number one. Are you surprised
Speaker 2: that Israel has not been more proactive special forces of
Speaker 2: the IDF to save hostages to bring them back to
Speaker 2: Israel because we've seen them succeed in a couple of
Speaker 2: cases with hostage extraction. And if they were to conduct
Speaker 2: those missions, would they be able to protect civilians that
Speaker 2: are surrounding them.
Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, it's an incredibly difficult mission set. Israel has
Speaker 7: special operations just like the United States with Sealed Team
Speaker 7: six and Delta Force that's specialized in this kind of
Speaker 7: hostage rescue. That being said, you have to imagine that
Speaker 7: as of today, those hostages are so well protected by
Speaker 7: hamas is that is their golden goose. They know that
Speaker 7: if they lose that, they lose all their leverage. So
Speaker 7: even with thirteen the estimate of thirteen thousand hamas being
Speaker 7: a triated, even with that high estimate, you have to
Speaker 7: assume that they are still the hostages are incredibly well protected,
Speaker 7: and that a mission like that to go in and
Speaker 7: extract those hostages would be incredibly high risk, and to
Speaker 7: your point, there would be very high risk to civilian casualties. So,
Speaker 7: as you started with, do I think they should be
Speaker 7: more aggressive? I don't think the conditions are set where
Speaker 7: they could be more aggressive to this point. If we
Speaker 7: don't get a deal done and the fighting continues and
Speaker 7: the forces surrounding the hostages are at treated, then and
Speaker 7: only then do I think you could see a very
Speaker 7: offensive and aggressive mission to go after the hostages directly.
Speaker 2: What form does the fighting take at this time? Dale,
Speaker 2: What should our listeners and viewers expect as negotiators get
Speaker 2: to the table in Cairo? Does that mean a slow
Speaker 2: down in military activity for the IDF or an increase
Speaker 2: knowing that window might be closing.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's it's a bit of both right
Speaker 7: right now. I think tactically, physically on the ground, you're
Speaker 7: going to see a slowdown to see if we can
Speaker 7: get a deal done. In the background, and you saw
Speaker 7: it this morning if you're paying attention or watching NETANYAHUU
Speaker 7: came out and said we're going to Rafa with or
Speaker 7: without a deal. I do believe, or we believe, that's
Speaker 7: just pressure it's a bit of political positioning. So to
Speaker 7: answer your question very directly, I think tactically you'll see
Speaker 7: a slowdown. It won't last long. We've got to see
Speaker 7: in the next twenty four to seventy two hours are
Speaker 7: we making progress in the negotiations. If there is progress,
Speaker 7: then I think there's a slowdown, and ideally you see
Speaker 7: a pause. What's on the table right now in open
Speaker 7: source is a forty day pause the exchange, and then
Speaker 7: after that Phase one then an enduring pause leading to
Speaker 7: a permanency spires. Is what's ideal here. All of that,
Speaker 7: It's too early to know, and we could lose the
Speaker 7: deal tonight. We could lose it in five minutes, sure,
Speaker 7: but ultimately you will see a tactical slowdown until we
Speaker 7: see the fruit of this negotiation.
Speaker 2: A lot of people thought the invasion of Rafa would
Speaker 2: be underway by now dale and we all remember Benjamin
Speaker 2: Netanya who's saying that a date had been selected that
Speaker 2: was weeks ago. Is the invasion of Rafa just a
Speaker 2: bargaining chip for israel I?
Speaker 7: Do believe it is?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 7: There's one caveat at some point there's an estimated six
Speaker 7: Hamas brigades that are still securing that area, and there
Speaker 7: are still tunnels that go from Gaza into Egypt. At
Speaker 7: some point IDF is going to have to address that.
Speaker 7: But I think Netna who is willing to put that
Speaker 7: on pause? And I do think if he can get
Speaker 7: this exchange with the global pressure, let alone the domestic
Speaker 7: pressure he has, if he can get this exchange done
Speaker 7: and I cease fire, that's going to buy him time.
Speaker 7: And I do believe he would pause on going after Rafa.
Speaker 7: That being said, if that did, if that did happen,
Speaker 7: the exchange was successful, I do believe next step for
Speaker 7: Israel is they are going to turn north. They're going
Speaker 7: to go after Hesblah in Lebanon, and that is going
Speaker 7: to be in the next phase of the war. And
Speaker 7: then lastly, let's assume that combat operations stop tomorrow in Gaza.
Speaker 7: We still have an enormous amount of challenges ahead. Who's
Speaker 7: going to control it doesn't get rebuilt? Is there a
Speaker 7: two state solution? There's a lots and lots of questions here.
Speaker 7: Even if we get this immediate phase one, in phase
Speaker 7: phase two done on the.
Speaker 2: Exchange, well, let's be honest, though there's no two state solution.
Speaker 2: At least eminently as long as Israel is opening new
Speaker 2: fronts to the north, to your point, and that would
Speaker 2: go for normalization between the US and Saudi Arabia Israel
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: Am I right?
Speaker 7: One hundred percent? So look on a global scale, the
Speaker 7: United States and the Biden administration are looking for a
Speaker 7: win and a cease fire. They're also looking to negotiate
Speaker 7: with Saudi Arabia and find a path to normalization with Israel. Again,
Speaker 7: I don't think those things are going to happen in
Speaker 7: the short term, meaning the next few weeks, but they
Speaker 7: are the long term goal, and there is political pressure
Speaker 7: with all three elements to get something done here over
Speaker 7: the next several months, if you will.
Speaker 2: How much time do we have in our remaining moment
Speaker 2: dale to find a truce? Is this days or weeks?
Speaker 7: I do think it's going to be a two step process.
Speaker 7: Phase one has to go well, that initial exchange has
Speaker 7: to go well, and then politically in the background, we've
Speaker 7: got to see alignment. If that happens, then you could
Speaker 7: see a path to a truce or a permanent ceasefire.
Speaker 2: It sounds like an announcement could be imminent though, is
Speaker 2: what we're hearing you're hearing the same thing.
Speaker 1: It sounds like.
Speaker 7: Yes, sir, absolutely, and we're connected straight into the IDF
Speaker 7: and teams on the ground, so we're hearing that exact
Speaker 7: same thing.
Speaker 2: Well, I really appreciate your bringing your expertise and your
Speaker 2: sources to our audience again today, Dale Buckner, It's good
Speaker 2: to see sir. He is now CEO of the firm
Speaker 2: Global Guardian, a retired Army colonel with a lot of
Speaker 2: experience on the ground, and will continue to explore the
Speaker 2: story throughout the day.
Speaker 1: On Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
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Speaker 3: We want to turn now to our political panel, our
Speaker 3: signature political panel. Indeed, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are
Speaker 3: with us, who of course are Bloomberg Politics contributors. And Genie,
Speaker 3: we know that you also a professor at Iona University.
Speaker 3: You spend a lot of time with college students every day,
Speaker 3: but this isn't just so much about academia. And the
Speaker 3: response of the university. It also seems like it has
Speaker 3: created a moment of pressure that goes far beyond it,
Speaker 3: as Republicans are seizing on this opportunity to cast criticism
Speaker 3: toward President Biden as a result, how do you think
Speaker 3: through not just what this means for these universities, but
Speaker 3: what it could mean more broadly for America's politicians and
Speaker 3: the Biden administration.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, this.
Speaker 8: Is a tough moment for Democrats, Joe Biden in particular,
Speaker 8: because it is something that splits the Democratic Party, and
Speaker 8: of course anything that splits the Democratic Party helps Donald
Speaker 8: Trump and the Republicans. And we've seen that, right We've
Speaker 8: seen Democrats send letters, for instance, to the president of
Speaker 8: Columbia demanding her to take a tougher action. And we've
Speaker 8: seen also Democrats like Alexandro o Casio Cortez Jamal Bowman
Speaker 8: go and support the protesters. So you're seeing that divide
Speaker 8: right there. You know, I thought it was very interesting
Speaker 8: that the president is going to go speak at Morehouse,
Speaker 8: and I am wondering if we see some kind of
Speaker 8: Sister Soldier moment there, just to you know, reckon back
Speaker 8: to Bill Clinton's moment of taking on his base and
Speaker 8: walking the line that he's been trying to walk, of
Speaker 8: denouncing anti Semitism and violence but defending the right to protest.
Speaker 8: And that's what he must do. But first and foremost,
Speaker 8: as president, he's got to denounce anti semitism and ensure
Speaker 8: security at the colleges and universities around the country, and
Speaker 8: defend the right to peaceful protest. So I'm wondering if
Speaker 8: he does more of that at Morehouse when he goes
Speaker 8: to make this speech. It's going to be a tough audience.
Speaker 2: I think it sure is. Rick Davis, I wonder what
Speaker 2: you think needs to happen now A potential Sister Soldier moment.
Speaker 2: That's interesting for Joe Biden. But this is going to
Speaker 2: be a practical matter on campus when it comes to
Speaker 2: getting the students out of this hall. How much time,
Speaker 2: how much forgiveness should the university have here?
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, I think this is an incredible
Speaker 9: overstatement to think that this small band of incontinent juveniles
Speaker 9: are somehow representative of the problems that Joe Biden have
Speaker 9: with the youth vote. The Harvard youth poll just came
Speaker 9: out like a week and a half ago, We talked
Speaker 9: about it on our program, and the same students that
Speaker 9: are protesting, if you want to call it a protest,
Speaker 9: ranked the Israeli Palestine conflict as fifteen out of sixteen
Speaker 9: issues that they were given.
Speaker 5: This is a small group of elite.
Speaker 9: University students who are you know, taking it upon themselves
Speaker 9: to try and disrupt the education that most of the
Speaker 9: students on the campus are getting and have nothing to
Speaker 9: do with these It's anti Semitic. It is an American
Speaker 9: to put this kind of university in this spotlight with
Speaker 9: a group of small band of you know, mobsters basically
Speaker 9: who have taken over these campus buildings. I mean, like
Speaker 9: the idea that this is somehow a broader political issue
Speaker 9: for Joe Biden. I hope he does have a Sister
Speaker 9: Soldier moment and says that he's willing to, you know,
Speaker 9: instigate the National Guard to clean out these universities if
Speaker 9: the presidents of these universities asked for it, because this
Speaker 9: is just mob vandalism. At this stage, there's nothing protesting
Speaker 9: going on. There's no legitimate argument to disinvest in Israeli investments,
Speaker 9: and by and large, most of these university probably don't
Speaker 9: have anything to do with that, and so they then
Speaker 9: transcend to, oh my god, we've got to have more
Speaker 9: transparency because you know, we don't know if you don't
Speaker 9: have Israeli investment. Well, it's none of their business whether
Speaker 9: or not the university has done this. Israel is a
Speaker 9: perfectly good place to invest in.
Speaker 7: So I don't know.
Speaker 9: I mean, I think all of this is going to
Speaker 9: not turn the political page. I would be surprised if
Speaker 9: Biden takes the moment to do it. But he ought
Speaker 9: to school these people because they are upsetting the education
Speaker 9: of a lot of legitimately interested, curious students who want
Speaker 9: to finish their school without this kind of disruption. And
Speaker 9: it is anti semitic. The things they are screaming at
Speaker 9: Columbia University are outrageous and they shouldn't be allowed to continue.
Speaker 3: And Genie, in response to what Rick was talking about
Speaker 3: about what's happening at these schools, the responsibility perhaps of
Speaker 3: the schools to deal with this behavior. And I know
Speaker 3: you spoke to what President Biden may or may not
Speaker 3: do here, but what about Congress. Knowing that Mike Johnson
Speaker 3: was just a Columbia Last week, he suggested the idea
Speaker 3: of pulling federal funding. What role do federal lawmakers have in.
Speaker 8: This, Yeah, that is something I think they don't have
Speaker 8: much of a role. I don't see them being able
Speaker 8: to pass legislation. I think maybe lawlers bill may have
Speaker 8: some more bipartisan support. But the idea that you pull funding,
Speaker 8: to me, that is, you know, harming everybody at that
Speaker 8: institution as opposed to the small number who should be
Speaker 8: handled by the administration and by the universities and colleges.
Speaker 8: So I don't think that that is where they should be.
Speaker 8: I also think it's important to say it wasn't that
Speaker 8: long ago that the Republicans were out there denouncing universities
Speaker 8: and colleges for things like trigger warnings, and now for
Speaker 8: cynical political reasons, they are trying to get themselves enmeshed
Speaker 8: in how campuses run their own lives. The universities have
Speaker 8: to handle this on their own. If they can't, the
Speaker 8: boards have to remove and replace the presidents. But I
Speaker 8: don't think there's a role for Speaker Johnson in this,
Speaker 8: and certainly I don't think they should be threatening the
Speaker 8: funding of our students at these universities and colleges because
Speaker 8: that impacts so many people who have done absolutely nothing wrong.
Speaker 8: And by the way, peaceful protest is absolutely allowed and
Speaker 8: encouraged in a liberal art setting, and it should be.
Speaker 8: It's an American right.
Speaker 2: They both speak from the heart, Genie Shanzano and Rick
Speaker 2: Davis on a delicate issue. It's great to have both
Speaker 2: of you with us in your analysis today, Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 3: Those protests that are happening on Columbia University's campus, as
Speaker 3: well as campuses across the country, happen against a backdrop
Speaker 3: of an ongoing war between Israel and Hamas an ongoing
Speaker 3: effort by negotiators in the Middle East to reach a
Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire agreement. The Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is
Speaker 3: in the region right now, had a meeting in Jordan
Speaker 3: today about this and is continuing to push this effort,
Speaker 3: but basically says the onus is on Hamas. This is
Speaker 3: what he said earlier today.
Speaker 10: Now, the quickest way to bring this to an end
Speaker 10: is to get to a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
Speaker 10: Hamas has before a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous
Speaker 10: on the part of Israel, and in this moment, the
Speaker 10: only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a
Speaker 10: ceasefire is Amas. They have to decide, and they have
Speaker 10: to decide quickly.
Speaker 3: That was actually the Secretary of State speaking in Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 3: the first stop on this Middle East tour yesterday, Jordan today,
Speaker 3: Israel tomorrow, and he'll be meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netniahu.
Speaker 3: We understand. We want to continue this conversation now with
Speaker 3: Cassenia Spetlova. She's Atlanta Council non resident Senior Fellow and
Speaker 3: specializes on the Middle East. Actually a former member of
Speaker 3: the Israeli Kinesse. Cassenia, thank you so much for being here.
Speaker 3: On balance of power, what is your degree of optimism
Speaker 3: right now that a cease fire deal can be reached?
Speaker 3: Is this really all about Hamas agreeing to it? Or
Speaker 3: is Israel something of an issue here too?
Speaker 4: Well? Hello, joined the Kaylei.
Speaker 11: First of all, I have to tell you that today,
Speaker 11: actually a couple of hours ago, there was supposed to
Speaker 11: be a discussion within the war cabinet that includes only
Speaker 11: several ministers of the cabinet and of course Benjamintina itself.
Speaker 11: The meeting was canceled, and there is this assessment and
Speaker 11: that it was canceled because Nitagna was afraid to actually
Speaker 11: to discuss the details of the cease fire and also
Speaker 11: the options for the Rafa corperation if they will not
Speaker 11: be a ceas fire, because it could trigger resignation of
Speaker 11: some of his ministers, the most extreme ones who demand
Speaker 11: that war will continue, and also more moderate ones who
Speaker 11: believe that there should be an agreement on the ceasfire
Speaker 11: as soon as possible.
Speaker 4: So he's trapped.
Speaker 11: And it seems that there are a lot of calculations,
Speaker 11: political calculations that do not have to do anything with
Speaker 11: the interest of Israel, the region, stability and so on.
Speaker 11: So of course there is the part of Kamas and
Speaker 11: they have to say yes, no, do this deal. But
Speaker 11: there is also internal Israeli political very difficult situation, and
Speaker 11: it's to let to say the jury is still out.
Speaker 11: We don't know you know what both of the sites
Speaker 11: will decide on this.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: Benjamin Etanya, who'll be damaged at home politically, certainly by
Speaker 2: some of his existing credits, but even members of the
Speaker 2: right if he goes forward with the ceasefire.
Speaker 4: He's damned if he will, and damned if he'll not.
Speaker 4: This is the situation right now. Just you know.
Speaker 11: Three four hours ago, a senior minister in his war cabinet,
Speaker 11: Guidy Eisenhott, a very respected ex chief of staff, announced
Speaker 11: that he will not be willing to be a part
Speaker 11: of any government that is not led by the national
Speaker 11: interest for first and foremost.
Speaker 1: UH.
Speaker 11: This is a very heavy hint that he believes that
Speaker 11: this is not where this.
Speaker 4: Government is heading to.
Speaker 1: UH.
Speaker 4: And the first threat of perhaps resignation UH.
Speaker 7: And UH.
Speaker 11: You know the Guardia Eisencotte and Benny Guns Uh. They
Speaker 11: symbolize the more traditional kind of authority, UH. The respected,
Speaker 11: very well respected in the West, and there were the
Speaker 11: bridge between the more radical Nittingau government UH and the
Speaker 11: Western powers, the US, the European Union, the Liaison. If
Speaker 11: they will quit, uh, nitting you will have a very
Speaker 11: difficult time to continue speaking.
Speaker 4: With the Americans.
Speaker 8: UH.
Speaker 11: And if his right wing ministers will quit, then you know,
Speaker 11: he will have no government at all.
Speaker 4: So this is where he stands right now.
Speaker 11: I can tell you that there is not much optimism
Speaker 11: in Israel on.
Speaker 4: The popular level.
Speaker 11: I think that you know that it takes place for
Speaker 11: far too long than anybody expected.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 4: It's already you know, way over two hundred days.
Speaker 7: Uh.
Speaker 11: And many people thought that it would be you know,
Speaker 11: over way before that, that the hostages will be freed. Uh.
Speaker 11: And there is a heavy concern that even the figure
Speaker 11: of thirty three hostages that was now discussed in the
Speaker 11: table of the negotiations in Cairo, it's not a real number.
Speaker 11: You know that perhaps the real now of the living
Speaker 11: costages is even lower than that.
Speaker 3: Well, Senny, as you talk about the issues net Nyahuu
Speaker 3: is facing politically, he also could be facing another issue
Speaker 3: in that there's been reporting that he may be served
Speaker 3: with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court along
Speaker 3: with other Israeli officials. There's been reporting that the US
Speaker 3: and allies are worried that that would be something that
Speaker 3: would really hinder, potentially disrupt any kind of temporary cease
Speaker 3: fire deal. How would do you expect that the Israeli
Speaker 3: government would react to something like that, knowing Israel isn't
Speaker 3: actually party to the ICC, what would happen.
Speaker 11: Well, this is first of all in uncharted territory, because
Speaker 11: until now, we only had heads of states that were
Speaker 11: not democratic states that you know, the issue to warrant against,
Speaker 11: such as Vladimir Putino Russia, and of course Omar al Bashir,
Speaker 11: the dictator of Sudan. But never did the experience situation
Speaker 11: in which the leader of a democratic country, which is
Speaker 11: a key ally of the United States, was threatened, you know,
Speaker 11: by this kind of measure. So I think that domestically
Speaker 11: it might for in a short term help me to
Speaker 11: Yao to explain his case to his supporters. First of all,
Speaker 11: to the base of his supporters. You see, the world
Speaker 11: is against us. We are being persecuted again. He invokes
Speaker 11: very often the images of the Holocaust of the persecution.
Speaker 4: So he will probably do it again.
Speaker 11: If this indeed will happen on the long term, I
Speaker 11: think that this is that will be a great shock
Speaker 11: for every Israeli.
Speaker 5: Uh.
Speaker 11: The implications will be you know, far fetching. It's changed,
Speaker 11: dramatic change in the status of Israel internationally. UH, and
Speaker 11: the Avie it's closest allies. So even though Israel is
Speaker 11: not a part, just like as the US is not
Speaker 11: a part of Aroma Statute and they're not, they do
Speaker 11: not these countries do not see themselves as part of
Speaker 11: this IC court and that they don't have to abide.
Speaker 11: But there are enough of Israel closest allies, such as Canada,
Speaker 11: just the majority of the European countries of course, all
Speaker 11: of the EU. You know that Albo simply will not
Speaker 11: be able to travel to anymore, exactly like the Russian
Speaker 11: leader Vladiberputin, who was issued a warrant against after he
Speaker 11: opened his bloody war against Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Because Senny, I want to ask you about humanitarian aid,
Speaker 2: knowing that the United States is already deeply involved in
Speaker 2: the construction of a temporary peer to try to overcome
Speaker 2: some of the barriers that we have faced trying to
Speaker 2: get aid to civilians in Gaza. This is something the
Speaker 2: Secretary of State talked about earlier today in Jordan. Let's
Speaker 2: listen to what he said.
Speaker 5: We have our maritime corridor that we've been working on.
Speaker 10: That I'd say about a week from now we'll be
Speaker 10: ready to go.
Speaker 1: That will also.
Speaker 10: Significantly increase the assistants, not a substitute for these land
Speaker 10: access roots, but an important complement too.
Speaker 2: When we talk about the building of the peer, the
Speaker 2: establishment of another humanitarian court or cassenya, how would that
Speaker 2: be helped by a cease fire? Would all of that
Speaker 2: be baked into a final agreement.
Speaker 11: Well, I think that every humanitarian organization in the region
Speaker 11: that is working in Gaza and since Aid to Gaza,
Speaker 11: is hopeful that the ceasefire will take place, because we
Speaker 11: know that many of the organizations such as World Central Kitchen,
Speaker 11: whose staff was killed as a result of shelling from
Speaker 11: the Israeli Israeli soldiers, they ceased the operation for a while.
Speaker 11: They returned now to the operation, but it's not the
Speaker 11: full volume. There are still a lot of concerns and
Speaker 11: of course only the reaching of the cease fire and
Speaker 11: providing of security to the personnel of the AID agency
Speaker 11: will of course allow them to do their work oneundred percent.
Speaker 11: Because the problem for now, as far as I understand,
Speaker 11: is not only with the supply. There is an increase
Speaker 11: in supply that is coming through the rough border.
Speaker 4: There are also.
Speaker 11: The airlifting and they are also the perspective of the
Speaker 11: pier and the sea corridor, but the distribution of the
Speaker 11: aid inside Gaza, the continuation of the stealing of this
Speaker 11: aid by Comas.
Speaker 4: This is what threatens the most.
Speaker 11: People in Gaza today because they simply do not see
Speaker 11: this humilitary end distributed to them for free. As we
Speaker 11: see time and again evidence that Hamas is selling this
Speaker 11: aid in the markets for money. Many people do not
Speaker 11: have this kind of money to acquire this aid, so
Speaker 11: we do need strong cos of minitarian bodies.
Speaker 4: We will be able to.
Speaker 2: I wish we had more time, but the Atlantic Council,
Speaker 2: we thank you for your expertise.
Speaker 1: This is from.
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