1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:14,239 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and then roun Ato with 4 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,840 Speaker 2: Nine thousand dollars in counting, Kaylee, Donald Trump found in 7 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: contempt of court actually happened today, And we're not done yet, 8 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 2: I say in counting, because there's another hearing on violating 9 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 2: his gag order set for Thursday. So this could be 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,760 Speaker 2: the beginning of a new cycle in which we see 11 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: multiple thousand dollars fines rolling through this trial. 12 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 3: Sure, but the judge even is disappointed, perhaps with how 13 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,840 Speaker 3: little he can find Trump for these violations. As you say, 14 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 3: nine thousand dollars for nine different counts. He mentioned in 15 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 3: this order the incredible wealth of this defendant, in particulars 16 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is a billionaire, at least on paper. And then, therefore, 17 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,479 Speaker 3: in order to deter him from further violations, did warn 18 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,759 Speaker 3: in the order the Court will not tolerate continued wilful 19 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,040 Speaker 3: violations of its lawful orders, and, if necessary and appropriate, 20 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 3: under the circumstances, it will impose incarceratory punishment threatening jail time. 21 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 2: Yes, incarceratory punishment not going to happen is what we 22 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: have been told by every legal analyst in this case, 23 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 2: not to a former president. The judge probably knows that 24 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 2: too well. 25 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,919 Speaker 3: I guess we'll see us another legal analyst. 26 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, let's find out agrees with that view. 27 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: Robert Wurders with us now he is a criminal and 28 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 3: constitutional law attorney. Welcome back to balance of power, sir. 29 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: It does raise the question of whether or not Trump 30 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,520 Speaker 3: will ever be deterred from violating the gag order if 31 00:01:48,520 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 3: he doesn't actually face any jail time for it. 32 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 4: Right. 33 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 3: Does do you think the former president knows that this 34 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 3: threat might be entirely empty or do you not think 35 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: that it is so? 36 00:01:58,320 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 5: Well, if I was the judge, I think about putting 37 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 5: in jail if he continues to violate it. The judge 38 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 5: is being very careful. If you read his gag order, 39 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 5: he talks about or at least his findings here. He 40 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 5: talks about being very mindful of mister Trump's First Amendment rights, 41 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 5: especially as a candidate. He's betting over backwards. But the 42 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 5: bottom line, this criminal defendant has to start behaving appropriately 43 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 5: and you cannot be attacking witnesses on social media media 44 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 5: and in the public and it has to stop. And 45 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 5: the judge is going to probably be left with no choice, 46 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 5: even though he realizes that mister Trump may then try 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 5: to use that politically if he gets put in jail. 48 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 2: No choice but to incarcerate the former president. Nobody sees 49 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 2: that happening, really though, do they. 50 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 5: Well, it certainly could if I was when. 51 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 2: I think, as the Secret Service going to get in 52 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: the cell with them, how do they do that? 53 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, I've kind of thought about that sometime. I mean, 54 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 5: you know, the Secret Service if he gets convicted on 55 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 5: one of the federal charge. You know, Secret Service agents 56 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 5: usually go to Florida, you know, after with the president, 57 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,679 Speaker 5: and the fact they would have to hang out in Levenworth, 58 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 5: Kansas may not have been what they were they wanted 59 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 5: to sign on for if he gets convicted of the 60 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 5: federal charge. But yeah, there's all kinds of logistical problems, 61 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 5: and the judge knows this, and that's what he's got 62 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 5: the concern. And this is all part of the reason 63 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 5: why Donald Trump is getting preferential treatment that no other 64 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 5: criminal defendant would get but at some point we have 65 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 5: to respect the process. And if a criminal defendant is 66 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 5: continuing to make public statements that impune the system, that 67 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 5: impugned his own trial and threaten witnesses, calling them sleeves bags, 68 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 5: which is what he's done here, the court has to 69 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 5: step in and do something. And I think the judges 70 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 5: left with frustration and what it would be. 71 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess it begs the question to your point. 72 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,440 Speaker 3: He already has made his feelings about these potential witnesses 73 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 3: quite known, calling them sleeves bags on multiple occasions. And 74 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 3: sure part of this order was that he has to 75 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 3: take down those true social posts in question or remove 76 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: a few items from his campaign website. But isn't the 77 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 3: damage already done? 78 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 5: Oh? It most certainly is. I think what the judges 79 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 5: trying to do is stop any further damage. So what's 80 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 5: to stop then this particular criminal defendant from all of 81 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 5: a sudden posting like he actually has that this jury 82 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 5: is unfair obviously, and then people start to take matters 83 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 5: into their own hands and trying to find out who 84 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 5: the jurors are and influence those jurors. Look, you wouldn't 85 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 5: put up with a mafia defendant or a you know, 86 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 5: homicidal defendants behaving this way. So you shouldn't put up 87 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 5: with mister Trump. I mean, you know, if he wants 88 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 5: to attain the highest office in the country, he should 89 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,360 Speaker 5: understand how things work and how the rule of law works. 90 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:53,680 Speaker 5: And you know, I guess the judge would face some frustration, 91 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 5: But like I said at the start, I would seriously 92 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,839 Speaker 5: start considering that. And he's warned Trump about it, and 93 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,919 Speaker 5: he's going through a very by step process to the 94 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 5: point where the judge may have no other choice. 95 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 2: Well, the optics would certainly be historic. As we spend 96 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,479 Speaker 2: time with Robert mcwad or, criminal and Constitutional law attorney Robert, 97 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 2: there is testimony taking place today. In fact, we're hearing 98 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: from Gary Farrow, a banker who helped Michael Cohen establish 99 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 2: the account that was used to pay off Stormy Daniels. 100 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: We're going to hear a lot of sensational testimony we 101 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 2: already did, I think arguably with David Pecker. How important 102 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,120 Speaker 2: is this business being had today in this week. 103 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 5: Well, it's crucial because it's forming all the steps for 104 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 5: the prosecutor to show the underlining crime. I also must say, 105 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 5: you know, the prosecution has put on a very smart case. 106 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 5: What they have done, and they didn't single this signaled 107 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 5: this beforehand, is they have actually broadened this case. It's 108 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 5: not just about Stormy Daniels, and it's not just about 109 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 5: even Susan mcdodle. It's about a much broader conspiracy that 110 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,719 Speaker 5: Donald Trump entered into to make himself president of the 111 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 5: United States by manipulating the media and violating campaign finance. 112 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 5: So Stormy Daniels and Karen mcdoodle and all the other 113 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:12,239 Speaker 5: people are just one small part of this broader scheme. 114 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 5: And the testimony from mister Pecker and the banker today 115 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 5: shows the much bigger scheme. I mean, this was not 116 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 5: just one bank account used to pay Stormy Daniels. This 117 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 5: was a little slush fund that should have been politically 118 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 5: reported because it's helping a candidate achieve office, and it's 119 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 5: being used for all kinds of little nefarious things, including 120 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 5: killing stories and providing payments to people to make sure 121 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 5: the stories don't go. And that's what the National Acquired 122 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 5: editor provided, and now the banker is providing the mechanism 123 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 5: for how that was done, and it's step by step 124 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 5: and much broader. What the implication of that is is okay, 125 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 5: go ahead and attack Stormy Daniels. And even if you 126 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 5: don't believe her, look at the much bigger picture. She 127 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 5: was only one small part. And that's what the prosecution 128 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 5: has done well. 129 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 3: And ultimate, we don't even know how many witnesses will 130 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 3: be called, as they haven't revealed the full list. We 131 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 3: also don't know, Robert, if Donald Trump will testify himself 132 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 3: And pardon me, I didn't go to law school, so 133 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 3: I don't know if this is an ill informed question, 134 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: But would he be limited by a gag order as 135 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 3: to what he could say on the stand when testifying 136 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 3: in his own defense or is that actually an opportunity 137 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 3: for him to safely plead his case. 138 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 5: Well, first of all, your question is perfectly intelligent. He 139 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 5: would not be limited, and that's actually the point. You know. 140 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 5: What we try to do with trials is protect the 141 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 5: integrity of the process so that you don't have extraneous 142 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 5: evidence coming in from tweets and things like that. In 143 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 5: a trial, he can take the west witness stand and 144 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 5: testify as to any relevant thing that relates to this charge. 145 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 5: He can say all kinds of things that he is 146 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 5: not allowed to say. In another public situation, because he 147 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,960 Speaker 5: will be under oath, he was subject to cross examination, 148 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 5: and he will be under a process, so he most 149 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 5: certainly can. So he is not really being gag nor 150 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 5: is his First Amendment rights really being implicated, because he 151 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 5: will get a chance to speak like any other American 152 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 5: who's facing trial, and he will get a chance to 153 00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 5: give his side of the story. 154 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: You wouldn't let him do that if you were representing him, 155 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 2: would you. 156 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 5: Well, First of all, a defendant has an absolute Fifth 157 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 5: Amendment right to testify. It is their decision and it 158 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 5: is always there to say. If I were his lawyer, 159 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 5: I would attempt to sit on him, to keep him 160 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,760 Speaker 5: away from the witness stand for two reasons. One is 161 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 5: he is a uniquely bad advocate for himself. And number two, 162 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 5: it opens the door for all kinds of what would 163 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 5: be called impeachment evidence. So, for instance, if you're testifying, 164 00:08:55,760 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 5: I can bring in evidence that you're just a bald 165 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 5: faced liar. Now I can't just bring and evidence if 166 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 5: you don't testify, because the evidence would go to impeach you. 167 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 5: It's not whether you're a liar or not is not 168 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 5: the evidence. It's the fact that your testimony, cannot believe 169 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 5: it on the matters that are important. So when you testify, 170 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 5: it opens the door for all kinds of things legally. 171 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 5: So that's again one reason. And of course the first 172 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 5: reason is Donald Trump. In every single situation historically where 173 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 5: he has testified, he has failed and done very very poorly, 174 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 5: and the jurors do not like him. And so for 175 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 5: that reason. So as a criminal defense attorney, you know, 176 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 5: I'm are all of a sudden getting nervous just at 177 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 5: the thought that a defendant like him would testified. But 178 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 5: it's their choice. 179 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 2: This is why you want to make worder representing you 180 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 2: when that day comes. Robert, it's good to see you again. 181 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: I really appreciate the time. We've enjoyed the conversations. We 182 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: look forward to the next one here because Kaylie, we've 183 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 2: got at least another six weeks on this. We haven't 184 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 2: even gotten to the sensational testimony that we're expecting. Donald Trump, 185 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 2: of course, holding sway over the House of Representatives, and a 186 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: lot of folks thought that Mike John and the Speaker 187 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 2: of the House was safe, if only because of the 188 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 2: bodyguard in the schoolyard named Donald Trump. But HACKEM Jeffrey 189 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 2: showed up today too, and it looks like Mike Johnson 190 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 2: is going to be holding that gavel for the rest 191 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: of this Congress. Megan Scully joins US Live in Washington 192 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 2: for a quick beat on this because it's an important 193 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 2: development today that otherwise would be a lead story as 194 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:23,679 Speaker 2: you cover Congress for US here at Bloomberg. Megan, interesting development. 195 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 2: Actually hear it from the leadership as opposed to a 196 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 2: couple of Democrats have said they might stay home or 197 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 2: vote to help Mike Johnson. The parties behind him. 198 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:34,680 Speaker 6: Now yes, So, as you said, Senate, our House Democratic 199 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 6: leaders put out statements today pretty extraordinary, saying that they 200 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 6: would basically move to save Speaker Johnson. But this is 201 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 6: all very interesting because it was almost like they were 202 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 6: trying to put out a fire that was almost out. 203 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 6: The motion margin. Taylor Green's motion to vacate was all 204 00:10:55,280 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 6: but dead and increasingly thought thinking perhaps you would not 205 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 6: actually go to the floor to activate it. Then she 206 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 6: immediately took to Twitter and indicated that it is likely 207 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 6: that she will do that. 208 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 3: Well, so then it raises the question of whether or 209 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 3: not she's bluffing or she actually will do that, and, 210 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 3: as she say, make everyone go on the record with 211 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 3: a vote on this motion to table. Even if it 212 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 3: gets tabled this time, there's nothing that would stop her 213 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 3: from trying again and again and again and trying to 214 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 3: see if Democratic resolve cracks. 215 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 6: Right, Sure, she could keep trying. I think Donald Trump 216 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 6: is a big wild card here. He has backed Speaker Johnson. 217 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 6: He's also a close ally of Marjorie Taylor Green. She's 218 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 6: not listening to him, we don't think this time around. 219 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 6: But what happens next time? I think it also depends 220 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 6: on what legislation they might take up in the intervening weeks, 221 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 6: whether or not they he decides suddenly to move forward 222 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 6: with the long stalled impeachment into President Biden. Now that 223 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 6: could make him some friends. 224 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 5: On the right. 225 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: So did Hokim Jeffries just make his life more difficult. 226 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,440 Speaker 2: I'm trying to understand where we are in this whole 227 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 2: saga here, because I know Marjorie Taylor Green wants to 228 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 2: get everybody on the record. This potentially makes it impossible 229 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 2: for him to be re elected as a Republican Speaker, 230 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 2: but it keeps the job now, Yes, So is this 231 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: good or bad friend? 232 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 6: He becomes speaker in name only? Is that especially Marjorie 233 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 6: Taylor Green called him the Democratic House Speaker in her tweet. 234 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 2: Not a great look for Mike Johnson. 235 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 6: No, it's not particularly somebody as conservative as Mike Johnson. 236 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 6: Angie Craig, who is a gay member of Congress who 237 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:34,200 Speaker 6: staunchly opposes Johnson on his opposition two same sex marriages 238 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 6: to you know, pretty much his full social agenda, put 239 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 6: out a statement saying that she would support him, that 240 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 6: she would vote to table this motion. Stunning, absolutely stunning 241 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 6: that he where he is getting his support from right now. 242 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:51,840 Speaker 6: It's good for him in the short term, but in 243 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 6: the long term, these aren't the people that he would 244 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 6: traditionally have in his corner. 245 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 3: Well, Marjorie Taylor Green is calling it the uniparty, and 246 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 3: she said forcing this would be a coming out party 247 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 3: for all of these people who are supposedly members of that. 248 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,440 Speaker 3: But maybe uniparty is just another way of freezing the 249 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 3: idea of bipartisanship. Yeah, Megan, and frankly, the reality is, 250 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 3: if anything further is going to make it out of 251 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 3: this House of Representatives, it's going to need bipartisanship. 252 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 6: Yes, absolutely, I mean they've been relying on bipartisanship because 253 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 6: the margin is so narrow and they're bound to be 254 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 6: people who disagree. But going forward, I think he's going 255 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 6: to have a very steep hill to climb, and we'll 256 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 6: be relying more on democratic votes than ever before. 257 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 2: We just spent months and months banging our heads against 258 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 2: the wall trying to figure out a way to fund 259 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: the government for the rest of this fiscal year. The 260 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,439 Speaker 2: President's already dropped his budget for the next one. There 261 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 2: was a Republican hearing on a Republican budget. But it's 262 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 2: an election year, so we're going to go all the 263 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 2: way through the summer and fall doing nothing here, right, 264 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 2: we'll smash into a deadline, kick the can in December 265 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 2: or in October rather September thirtyth and the fiscal year ends, 266 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 2: and nothing will be done until after the presidential election. 267 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: Speaking anything close to what might be truth ish. 268 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 6: Yes, there are some things they have to get done. 269 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 6: First order of business is an FAA authorization, yes, right, 270 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 6: which is becoming a Christmastry. 271 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 2: In the next couple of weeks. We understand, we've talked 272 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 2: about that a lot. When it comes to funding. 273 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 6: Though, when it comes to funding. 274 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: This speaker's weakened to the extent that you're talking about, 275 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: this is going to be very difficult. 276 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 6: Absolutely, But then is there emergency funding needs that need 277 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 6: to be considered in the intervening months? You know, does 278 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 6: Ukraine need more money? Does Israel need more money? Is 279 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 6: there a natural disaster within the United States? Really rebuilding 280 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 6: the collapse bridge in Baltimore? Yeah, still an open question. 281 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 1: True. 282 00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 2: Jia also has not been attached to anything as of now. 283 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,320 Speaker 2: Megan Skully, great to see you, Thank you, Thank you. 284 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: As always, you're. 285 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just 286 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and thenroid Oro 287 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 288 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just 289 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven. 290 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 2: As we turn our attention to the situation in Israel, 291 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 2: which we can't talk about without mentioning the situation on 292 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 2: Columbia University's campus where dozens of protesters have barricaded themselves 293 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 2: now inside Hamilton Hall. This happened in the wee hours. 294 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 2: It was after midnight. They barricaded the doors, they blocked 295 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 2: the entrances, and this is going to be a standoff. 296 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 2: It's just unclear how it ends. They've made it very 297 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 2: clear that they will not be leaving without force and 298 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:40,120 Speaker 2: more where that came from cal Poly Humboldt, north of 299 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: San Francisco. Students barricading themselves for a week in a 300 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 2: building that includes the President's office. They have called it 301 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 2: Intifada Hall. At least forty people in an encampment. University 302 00:15:53,880 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 2: of Texas Austin arrested yesterday nine protesters. University of Flora 303 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 2: taken into custody. Police and riot gear arresting people. Multiple 304 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: people at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond. This is a 305 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 2: big deal domestically here for the Biden administration, and it 306 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 2: is a big deal geo politically for the administration, which 307 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 2: is why we wanted to get some time today with 308 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: Dale Buckner. He's the CEO of Global Guardian, retired Army 309 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: colonel who specializes in many of the functions that we're 310 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 2: seeing the IDF pursue in their war against Hamas. Dale, 311 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on Bloomberg. We're talking today. Importantly, 312 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 2: I just gave you the backdrop on what's happening here 313 00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 2: on campuses. We're talking about a new ceasefire proposal that 314 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 2: would include the transfer of hostages, Israel lowering the threshold 315 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: the minimum number of hostages it needs apparently to agree 316 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 2: to this at least short term truce. 317 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: Dale. 318 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 2: What would an exchange look like and what would that 319 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 2: mean as a millilitary mission? 320 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,520 Speaker 7: Joe, So, I think one the exchange is clearly the 321 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:09,200 Speaker 7: closest we've been in the last two hundred plus days. 322 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 7: Two we're talking about twenty to thirty three Israelis being 323 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 7: hostages being exchanged for upward of nine hundred prisoners. Are 324 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 7: the basic terms. Now, these terms can ebb and flow, 325 00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 7: but that's really as of this morning, what's kind of 326 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 7: out in the open source, if you will. So from 327 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 7: a peer logistical standpoint, there would be a military component 328 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 7: of this to receive the Israeli hostages and to transfer 329 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 7: the Palestinians back, So there is an element of logistics here. 330 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 7: Clearly Egypt has taken a material role, even beyond what 331 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 7: the Kataris were doing, and we're now starting to see 332 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,199 Speaker 7: real effects. So this is hopeful and we should be 333 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 7: optimistic that we are as close to a deal as 334 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 7: we've been in the last two hundred plus days. 335 00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 2: Dale, I want to ask you about the other potential 336 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: outcome here, and that's hostage extraction, and that's something that 337 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 2: you used to specialize in. Number one. Are you surprised 338 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 2: that Israel has not been more proactive special forces of 339 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,119 Speaker 2: the IDF to save hostages to bring them back to 340 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 2: Israel because we've seen them succeed in a couple of 341 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 2: cases with hostage extraction. And if they were to conduct 342 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 2: those missions, would they be able to protect civilians that 343 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 2: are surrounding them. 344 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, it's an incredibly difficult mission set. Israel has 345 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 7: special operations just like the United States with Sealed Team 346 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 7: six and Delta Force that's specialized in this kind of 347 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 7: hostage rescue. That being said, you have to imagine that 348 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 7: as of today, those hostages are so well protected by 349 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 7: hamas is that is their golden goose. They know that 350 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 7: if they lose that, they lose all their leverage. So 351 00:18:56,240 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 7: even with thirteen the estimate of thirteen thousand hamas being 352 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,959 Speaker 7: a triated, even with that high estimate, you have to 353 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 7: assume that they are still the hostages are incredibly well protected, 354 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,000 Speaker 7: and that a mission like that to go in and 355 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 7: extract those hostages would be incredibly high risk, and to 356 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 7: your point, there would be very high risk to civilian casualties. So, 357 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 7: as you started with, do I think they should be 358 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 7: more aggressive? I don't think the conditions are set where 359 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,439 Speaker 7: they could be more aggressive to this point. If we 360 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 7: don't get a deal done and the fighting continues and 361 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 7: the forces surrounding the hostages are at treated, then and 362 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 7: only then do I think you could see a very 363 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 7: offensive and aggressive mission to go after the hostages directly. 364 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 2: What form does the fighting take at this time? Dale, 365 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 2: What should our listeners and viewers expect as negotiators get 366 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 2: to the table in Cairo? Does that mean a slow 367 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 2: down in military activity for the IDF or an increase 368 00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 2: knowing that window might be closing. 369 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's it's a bit of both right 370 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 7: right now. I think tactically, physically on the ground, you're 371 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 7: going to see a slowdown to see if we can 372 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 7: get a deal done. In the background, and you saw 373 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 7: it this morning if you're paying attention or watching NETANYAHUU 374 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 7: came out and said we're going to Rafa with or 375 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 7: without a deal. I do believe, or we believe, that's 376 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 7: just pressure it's a bit of political positioning. So to 377 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,200 Speaker 7: answer your question very directly, I think tactically you'll see 378 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 7: a slowdown. It won't last long. We've got to see 379 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 7: in the next twenty four to seventy two hours are 380 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 7: we making progress in the negotiations. If there is progress, 381 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 7: then I think there's a slowdown, and ideally you see 382 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 7: a pause. What's on the table right now in open 383 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 7: source is a forty day pause the exchange, and then 384 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 7: after that Phase one then an enduring pause leading to 385 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,640 Speaker 7: a permanency spires. Is what's ideal here. All of that, 386 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 7: It's too early to know, and we could lose the 387 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 7: deal tonight. We could lose it in five minutes, sure, 388 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 7: but ultimately you will see a tactical slowdown until we 389 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 7: see the fruit of this negotiation. 390 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 2: A lot of people thought the invasion of Rafa would 391 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 2: be underway by now dale and we all remember Benjamin 392 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 2: Netanya who's saying that a date had been selected that 393 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 2: was weeks ago. Is the invasion of Rafa just a 394 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 2: bargaining chip for israel I? 395 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 7: Do believe it is? 396 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:19,240 Speaker 1: Now? 397 00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 7: There's one caveat at some point there's an estimated six 398 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 7: Hamas brigades that are still securing that area, and there 399 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 7: are still tunnels that go from Gaza into Egypt. At 400 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 7: some point IDF is going to have to address that. 401 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 7: But I think Netna who is willing to put that 402 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 7: on pause? And I do think if he can get 403 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 7: this exchange with the global pressure, let alone the domestic 404 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,440 Speaker 7: pressure he has, if he can get this exchange done 405 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,880 Speaker 7: and I cease fire, that's going to buy him time. 406 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 7: And I do believe he would pause on going after Rafa. 407 00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,760 Speaker 7: That being said, if that did, if that did happen, 408 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 7: the exchange was successful, I do believe next step for 409 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 7: Israel is they are going to turn north. They're going 410 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 7: to go after Hesblah in Lebanon, and that is going 411 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 7: to be in the next phase of the war. And 412 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 7: then lastly, let's assume that combat operations stop tomorrow in Gaza. 413 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 7: We still have an enormous amount of challenges ahead. Who's 414 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 7: going to control it doesn't get rebuilt? Is there a 415 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 7: two state solution? There's a lots and lots of questions here. 416 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 7: Even if we get this immediate phase one, in phase 417 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 7: phase two done on the. 418 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,719 Speaker 2: Exchange, well, let's be honest, though there's no two state solution. 419 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 2: At least eminently as long as Israel is opening new 420 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 2: fronts to the north, to your point, and that would 421 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 2: go for normalization between the US and Saudi Arabia Israel 422 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 2: as well. 423 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: Am I right? 424 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 7: One hundred percent? So look on a global scale, the 425 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 7: United States and the Biden administration are looking for a 426 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 7: win and a cease fire. They're also looking to negotiate 427 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 7: with Saudi Arabia and find a path to normalization with Israel. Again, 428 00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 7: I don't think those things are going to happen in 429 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 7: the short term, meaning the next few weeks, but they 430 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 7: are the long term goal, and there is political pressure 431 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 7: with all three elements to get something done here over 432 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 7: the next several months, if you will. 433 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 2: How much time do we have in our remaining moment 434 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 2: dale to find a truce? Is this days or weeks? 435 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 7: I do think it's going to be a two step process. 436 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 7: Phase one has to go well, that initial exchange has 437 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 7: to go well, and then politically in the background, we've 438 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 7: got to see alignment. If that happens, then you could 439 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,639 Speaker 7: see a path to a truce or a permanent ceasefire. 440 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 2: It sounds like an announcement could be imminent though, is 441 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,120 Speaker 2: what we're hearing you're hearing the same thing. 442 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 1: It sounds like. 443 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 7: Yes, sir, absolutely, and we're connected straight into the IDF 444 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 7: and teams on the ground, so we're hearing that exact 445 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 7: same thing. 446 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 2: Well, I really appreciate your bringing your expertise and your 447 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,680 Speaker 2: sources to our audience again today, Dale Buckner, It's good 448 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:53,640 Speaker 2: to see sir. He is now CEO of the firm 449 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 2: Global Guardian, a retired Army colonel with a lot of 450 00:23:56,880 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 2: experience on the ground, and will continue to explore the 451 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:01,120 Speaker 2: story throughout the day. 452 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 453 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on appocar Play, 454 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 1: and then Proudoro with the Bloomberg Business at Listen on 455 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 456 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 457 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 3: We want to turn now to our political panel, our 458 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 3: signature political panel. Indeed, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are 459 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 3: with us, who of course are Bloomberg Politics contributors. And Genie, 460 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 3: we know that you also a professor at Iona University. 461 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 3: You spend a lot of time with college students every day, 462 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,439 Speaker 3: but this isn't just so much about academia. And the 463 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 3: response of the university. It also seems like it has 464 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 3: created a moment of pressure that goes far beyond it, 465 00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 3: as Republicans are seizing on this opportunity to cast criticism 466 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 3: toward President Biden as a result, how do you think 467 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 3: through not just what this means for these universities, but 468 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 3: what it could mean more broadly for America's politicians and 469 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 3: the Biden administration. 470 00:24:59,160 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, this. 471 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,400 Speaker 8: Is a tough moment for Democrats, Joe Biden in particular, 472 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 8: because it is something that splits the Democratic Party, and 473 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 8: of course anything that splits the Democratic Party helps Donald 474 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,360 Speaker 8: Trump and the Republicans. And we've seen that, right We've 475 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 8: seen Democrats send letters, for instance, to the president of 476 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 8: Columbia demanding her to take a tougher action. And we've 477 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 8: seen also Democrats like Alexandro o Casio Cortez Jamal Bowman 478 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 8: go and support the protesters. So you're seeing that divide 479 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 8: right there. You know, I thought it was very interesting 480 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,360 Speaker 8: that the president is going to go speak at Morehouse, 481 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 8: and I am wondering if we see some kind of 482 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 8: Sister Soldier moment there, just to you know, reckon back 483 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 8: to Bill Clinton's moment of taking on his base and 484 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 8: walking the line that he's been trying to walk, of 485 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 8: denouncing anti Semitism and violence but defending the right to protest. 486 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 8: And that's what he must do. But first and foremost, 487 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 8: as president, he's got to denounce anti semitism and ensure 488 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 8: security at the colleges and universities around the country, and 489 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 8: defend the right to peaceful protest. So I'm wondering if 490 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 8: he does more of that at Morehouse when he goes 491 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 8: to make this speech. It's going to be a tough audience. 492 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 2: I think it sure is. Rick Davis, I wonder what 493 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 2: you think needs to happen now A potential Sister Soldier moment. 494 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 2: That's interesting for Joe Biden. But this is going to 495 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,919 Speaker 2: be a practical matter on campus when it comes to 496 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 2: getting the students out of this hall. How much time, 497 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,960 Speaker 2: how much forgiveness should the university have here? 498 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 9: Well, first of all, I think this is an incredible 499 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 9: overstatement to think that this small band of incontinent juveniles 500 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 9: are somehow representative of the problems that Joe Biden have 501 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 9: with the youth vote. The Harvard youth poll just came 502 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 9: out like a week and a half ago, We talked 503 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,439 Speaker 9: about it on our program, and the same students that 504 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 9: are protesting, if you want to call it a protest, 505 00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 9: ranked the Israeli Palestine conflict as fifteen out of sixteen 506 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:02,919 Speaker 9: issues that they were given. 507 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 5: This is a small group of elite. 508 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 9: University students who are you know, taking it upon themselves 509 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 9: to try and disrupt the education that most of the 510 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 9: students on the campus are getting and have nothing to 511 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 9: do with these It's anti Semitic. It is an American 512 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 9: to put this kind of university in this spotlight with 513 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 9: a group of small band of you know, mobsters basically 514 00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 9: who have taken over these campus buildings. I mean, like 515 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 9: the idea that this is somehow a broader political issue 516 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 9: for Joe Biden. I hope he does have a Sister 517 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 9: Soldier moment and says that he's willing to, you know, 518 00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 9: instigate the National Guard to clean out these universities if 519 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 9: the presidents of these universities asked for it, because this 520 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,120 Speaker 9: is just mob vandalism. At this stage, there's nothing protesting 521 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 9: going on. There's no legitimate argument to disinvest in Israeli investments, 522 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 9: and by and large, most of these university probably don't 523 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 9: have anything to do with that, and so they then 524 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,640 Speaker 9: transcend to, oh my god, we've got to have more 525 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 9: transparency because you know, we don't know if you don't 526 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 9: have Israeli investment. Well, it's none of their business whether 527 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 9: or not the university has done this. Israel is a 528 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 9: perfectly good place to invest in. 529 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:20,719 Speaker 7: So I don't know. 530 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 9: I mean, I think all of this is going to 531 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 9: not turn the political page. I would be surprised if 532 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,160 Speaker 9: Biden takes the moment to do it. But he ought 533 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 9: to school these people because they are upsetting the education 534 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 9: of a lot of legitimately interested, curious students who want 535 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 9: to finish their school without this kind of disruption. And 536 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 9: it is anti semitic. The things they are screaming at 537 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 9: Columbia University are outrageous and they shouldn't be allowed to continue. 538 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 3: And Genie, in response to what Rick was talking about 539 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 3: about what's happening at these schools, the responsibility perhaps of 540 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:59,280 Speaker 3: the schools to deal with this behavior. And I know 541 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 3: you spoke to what President Biden may or may not 542 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 3: do here, but what about Congress. Knowing that Mike Johnson 543 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 3: was just a Columbia Last week, he suggested the idea 544 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 3: of pulling federal funding. What role do federal lawmakers have in. 545 00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 8: This, Yeah, that is something I think they don't have 546 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 8: much of a role. I don't see them being able 547 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:26,240 Speaker 8: to pass legislation. I think maybe lawlers bill may have 548 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 8: some more bipartisan support. But the idea that you pull funding, 549 00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 8: to me, that is, you know, harming everybody at that 550 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 8: institution as opposed to the small number who should be 551 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 8: handled by the administration and by the universities and colleges. 552 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:45,479 Speaker 8: So I don't think that that is where they should be. 553 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 8: I also think it's important to say it wasn't that 554 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 8: long ago that the Republicans were out there denouncing universities 555 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 8: and colleges for things like trigger warnings, and now for 556 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 8: cynical political reasons, they are trying to get themselves enmeshed 557 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:05,479 Speaker 8: in how campuses run their own lives. The universities have 558 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 8: to handle this on their own. If they can't, the 559 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 8: boards have to remove and replace the presidents. But I 560 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 8: don't think there's a role for Speaker Johnson in this, 561 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 8: and certainly I don't think they should be threatening the 562 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 8: funding of our students at these universities and colleges because 563 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 8: that impacts so many people who have done absolutely nothing wrong. 564 00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 8: And by the way, peaceful protest is absolutely allowed and 565 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 8: encouraged in a liberal art setting, and it should be. 566 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 8: It's an American right. 567 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 2: They both speak from the heart, Genie Shanzano and Rick 568 00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 2: Davis on a delicate issue. It's great to have both 569 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 2: of you with us in your analysis today, Bloomberg Politics contributors. 570 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 571 00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 572 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business at You can also listen 573 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 574 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,600 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven. 575 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:08,160 Speaker 3: Those protests that are happening on Columbia University's campus, as 576 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 3: well as campuses across the country, happen against a backdrop 577 00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 3: of an ongoing war between Israel and Hamas an ongoing 578 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,440 Speaker 3: effort by negotiators in the Middle East to reach a 579 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 3: temporary ceasefire agreement. The Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is 580 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,800 Speaker 3: in the region right now, had a meeting in Jordan 581 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,160 Speaker 3: today about this and is continuing to push this effort, 582 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,920 Speaker 3: but basically says the onus is on Hamas. This is 583 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 3: what he said earlier today. 584 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 10: Now, the quickest way to bring this to an end 585 00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 10: is to get to a ceasefire and the release of hostages. 586 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 10: Hamas has before a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous 587 00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 10: on the part of Israel, and in this moment, the 588 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 10: only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a 589 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 10: ceasefire is Amas. They have to decide, and they have 590 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:58,280 Speaker 10: to decide quickly. 591 00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 3: That was actually the Secretary of State speaking in Saudi Arabia, 592 00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 3: the first stop on this Middle East tour yesterday, Jordan today, 593 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 3: Israel tomorrow, and he'll be meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netniahu. 594 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 3: We understand. We want to continue this conversation now with 595 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,800 Speaker 3: Cassenia Spetlova. She's Atlanta Council non resident Senior Fellow and 596 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 3: specializes on the Middle East. Actually a former member of 597 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:25,640 Speaker 3: the Israeli Kinesse. Cassenia, thank you so much for being here. 598 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 3: On balance of power, what is your degree of optimism 599 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,760 Speaker 3: right now that a cease fire deal can be reached? 600 00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 3: Is this really all about Hamas agreeing to it? Or 601 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 3: is Israel something of an issue here too? 602 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 4: Well? Hello, joined the Kaylei. 603 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 11: First of all, I have to tell you that today, 604 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 11: actually a couple of hours ago, there was supposed to 605 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 11: be a discussion within the war cabinet that includes only 606 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 11: several ministers of the cabinet and of course Benjamintina itself. 607 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,320 Speaker 11: The meeting was canceled, and there is this assessment and 608 00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:04,040 Speaker 11: that it was canceled because Nitagna was afraid to actually 609 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 11: to discuss the details of the cease fire and also 610 00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,480 Speaker 11: the options for the Rafa corperation if they will not 611 00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 11: be a ceas fire, because it could trigger resignation of 612 00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 11: some of his ministers, the most extreme ones who demand 613 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,240 Speaker 11: that war will continue, and also more moderate ones who 614 00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 11: believe that there should be an agreement on the ceasfire 615 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 11: as soon as possible. 616 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 4: So he's trapped. 617 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 11: And it seems that there are a lot of calculations, 618 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 11: political calculations that do not have to do anything with 619 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,959 Speaker 11: the interest of Israel, the region, stability and so on. 620 00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 11: So of course there is the part of Kamas and 621 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 11: they have to say yes, no, do this deal. But 622 00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 11: there is also internal Israeli political very difficult situation, and 623 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 11: it's to let to say the jury is still out. 624 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 11: We don't know you know what both of the sites 625 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 11: will decide on this. 626 00:33:58,200 --> 00:33:58,360 Speaker 1: Well. 627 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 2: Benjamin Etanya, who'll be damaged at home politically, certainly by 628 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,560 Speaker 2: some of his existing credits, but even members of the 629 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,440 Speaker 2: right if he goes forward with the ceasefire. 630 00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 4: He's damned if he will, and damned if he'll not. 631 00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 4: This is the situation right now. Just you know. 632 00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:23,200 Speaker 11: Three four hours ago, a senior minister in his war cabinet, 633 00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 11: Guidy Eisenhott, a very respected ex chief of staff, announced 634 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,439 Speaker 11: that he will not be willing to be a part 635 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,920 Speaker 11: of any government that is not led by the national 636 00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 11: interest for first and foremost. 637 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:37,520 Speaker 1: UH. 638 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,720 Speaker 11: This is a very heavy hint that he believes that 639 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,440 Speaker 11: this is not where this. 640 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 4: Government is heading to. 641 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:44,759 Speaker 1: UH. 642 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,240 Speaker 4: And the first threat of perhaps resignation UH. 643 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:49,839 Speaker 7: And UH. 644 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,600 Speaker 11: You know the Guardia Eisencotte and Benny Guns Uh. They 645 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 11: symbolize the more traditional kind of authority, UH. The respected, 646 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 11: very well respected in the West, and there were the 647 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 11: bridge between the more radical Nittingau government UH and the 648 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:11,399 Speaker 11: Western powers, the US, the European Union, the Liaison. If 649 00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,880 Speaker 11: they will quit, uh, nitting you will have a very 650 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,879 Speaker 11: difficult time to continue speaking. 651 00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 4: With the Americans. 652 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:16,919 Speaker 8: UH. 653 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 11: And if his right wing ministers will quit, then you know, 654 00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,479 Speaker 11: he will have no government at all. 655 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 4: So this is where he stands right now. 656 00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,640 Speaker 11: I can tell you that there is not much optimism 657 00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 11: in Israel on. 658 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 4: The popular level. 659 00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 11: I think that you know that it takes place for 660 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:37,280 Speaker 11: far too long than anybody expected. 661 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 2: Uh. 662 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,800 Speaker 4: It's already you know, way over two hundred days. 663 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:41,360 Speaker 7: Uh. 664 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,719 Speaker 11: And many people thought that it would be you know, 665 00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 11: over way before that, that the hostages will be freed. Uh. 666 00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,240 Speaker 11: And there is a heavy concern that even the figure 667 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,960 Speaker 11: of thirty three hostages that was now discussed in the 668 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 11: table of the negotiations in Cairo, it's not a real number. 669 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 11: You know that perhaps the real now of the living 670 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 11: costages is even lower than that. 671 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 3: Well, Senny, as you talk about the issues net Nyahuu 672 00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 3: is facing politically, he also could be facing another issue 673 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,399 Speaker 3: in that there's been reporting that he may be served 674 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,160 Speaker 3: with an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court along 675 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,279 Speaker 3: with other Israeli officials. There's been reporting that the US 676 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 3: and allies are worried that that would be something that 677 00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,359 Speaker 3: would really hinder, potentially disrupt any kind of temporary cease 678 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,320 Speaker 3: fire deal. How would do you expect that the Israeli 679 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:33,319 Speaker 3: government would react to something like that, knowing Israel isn't 680 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,840 Speaker 3: actually party to the ICC, what would happen. 681 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 11: Well, this is first of all in uncharted territory, because 682 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 11: until now, we only had heads of states that were 683 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:50,960 Speaker 11: not democratic states that you know, the issue to warrant against, 684 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 11: such as Vladimir Putino Russia, and of course Omar al Bashir, 685 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 11: the dictator of Sudan. But never did the experience situation 686 00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,960 Speaker 11: in which the leader of a democratic country, which is 687 00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 11: a key ally of the United States, was threatened, you know, 688 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 11: by this kind of measure. So I think that domestically 689 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,560 Speaker 11: it might for in a short term help me to 690 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 11: Yao to explain his case to his supporters. First of all, 691 00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 11: to the base of his supporters. You see, the world 692 00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:24,080 Speaker 11: is against us. We are being persecuted again. He invokes 693 00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 11: very often the images of the Holocaust of the persecution. 694 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 4: So he will probably do it again. 695 00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,799 Speaker 11: If this indeed will happen on the long term, I 696 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,399 Speaker 11: think that this is that will be a great shock 697 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:35,520 Speaker 11: for every Israeli. 698 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 5: Uh. 699 00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,440 Speaker 11: The implications will be you know, far fetching. It's changed, 700 00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,680 Speaker 11: dramatic change in the status of Israel internationally. UH, and 701 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 11: the Avie it's closest allies. So even though Israel is 702 00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,360 Speaker 11: not a part, just like as the US is not 703 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:55,719 Speaker 11: a part of Aroma Statute and they're not, they do 704 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,520 Speaker 11: not these countries do not see themselves as part of 705 00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 11: this IC court and that they don't have to abide. 706 00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,240 Speaker 11: But there are enough of Israel closest allies, such as Canada, 707 00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:09,879 Speaker 11: just the majority of the European countries of course, all 708 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:13,440 Speaker 11: of the EU. You know that Albo simply will not 709 00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:17,360 Speaker 11: be able to travel to anymore, exactly like the Russian 710 00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:21,799 Speaker 11: leader Vladiberputin, who was issued a warrant against after he 711 00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 11: opened his bloody war against Ukraine. 712 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,040 Speaker 2: Because Senny, I want to ask you about humanitarian aid, 713 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 2: knowing that the United States is already deeply involved in 714 00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,360 Speaker 2: the construction of a temporary peer to try to overcome 715 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,840 Speaker 2: some of the barriers that we have faced trying to 716 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,279 Speaker 2: get aid to civilians in Gaza. This is something the 717 00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,359 Speaker 2: Secretary of State talked about earlier today in Jordan. Let's 718 00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:45,200 Speaker 2: listen to what he said. 719 00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,479 Speaker 5: We have our maritime corridor that we've been working on. 720 00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,400 Speaker 10: That I'd say about a week from now we'll be 721 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:51,920 Speaker 10: ready to go. 722 00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:53,279 Speaker 1: That will also. 723 00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:58,839 Speaker 10: Significantly increase the assistants, not a substitute for these land 724 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,799 Speaker 10: access roots, but an important complement too. 725 00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,719 Speaker 2: When we talk about the building of the peer, the 726 00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:10,960 Speaker 2: establishment of another humanitarian court or cassenya, how would that 727 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,200 Speaker 2: be helped by a cease fire? Would all of that 728 00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 2: be baked into a final agreement. 729 00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,800 Speaker 11: Well, I think that every humanitarian organization in the region 730 00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,320 Speaker 11: that is working in Gaza and since Aid to Gaza, 731 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 11: is hopeful that the ceasefire will take place, because we 732 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:32,720 Speaker 11: know that many of the organizations such as World Central Kitchen, 733 00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:38,359 Speaker 11: whose staff was killed as a result of shelling from 734 00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:45,320 Speaker 11: the Israeli Israeli soldiers, they ceased the operation for a while. 735 00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,640 Speaker 11: They returned now to the operation, but it's not the 736 00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:52,080 Speaker 11: full volume. There are still a lot of concerns and 737 00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 11: of course only the reaching of the cease fire and 738 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,960 Speaker 11: providing of security to the personnel of the AID agency 739 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,840 Speaker 11: will of course allow them to do their work oneundred percent. 740 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,480 Speaker 11: Because the problem for now, as far as I understand, 741 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,560 Speaker 11: is not only with the supply. There is an increase 742 00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 11: in supply that is coming through the rough border. 743 00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:15,160 Speaker 4: There are also. 744 00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:19,360 Speaker 11: The airlifting and they are also the perspective of the 745 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:24,080 Speaker 11: pier and the sea corridor, but the distribution of the 746 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:28,279 Speaker 11: aid inside Gaza, the continuation of the stealing of this 747 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:29,400 Speaker 11: aid by Comas. 748 00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,719 Speaker 4: This is what threatens the most. 749 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,080 Speaker 11: People in Gaza today because they simply do not see 750 00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:38,799 Speaker 11: this humilitary end distributed to them for free. As we 751 00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 11: see time and again evidence that Hamas is selling this 752 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 11: aid in the markets for money. Many people do not 753 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,160 Speaker 11: have this kind of money to acquire this aid, so 754 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,800 Speaker 11: we do need strong cos of minitarian bodies. 755 00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:53,799 Speaker 4: We will be able to. 756 00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,120 Speaker 2: I wish we had more time, but the Atlantic Council, 757 00:40:57,120 --> 00:40:58,440 Speaker 2: we thank you for your expertise. 758 00:40:58,520 --> 00:40:59,160 Speaker 1: This is from. 759 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,560 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 760 00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,520 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 761 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,200 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 762 00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,480 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 763 00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,200 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.