Speaker 1: This year's breakouts. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in
Speaker 1: everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
Speaker 1: It is me Joey b joe Phisipia, and today we
Speaker 1: continue our week of all teams and today it's all
Speaker 1: about the breakouts. That's right. The guys are going to
Speaker 1: take their game from here and bring it all the
Speaker 1: way up to Hia and to help me break these
Speaker 1: players down. Of course, is the Welsh Chris Welsh and
Speaker 1: one of the best baseball writers on the planet. He
Speaker 1: is the host of the Beat the Shift podcast. He
Speaker 1: also is pretty much like Fantasy Writer of the Year
Speaker 1: every single year. Not to mention, he does a little
Speaker 1: production system called ATC. It's arial and Ariel, did you
Speaker 1: project yourself being on this show here today?
Speaker 2: Absolutely? I projected it would be a fantastic show. And
Speaker 2: we know that's gonna happen, right.
Speaker 1: Get it, it's already in the bank. Well so really
Speaker 1: it's all on you if it fails.
Speaker 3: Well usually yeah, when it fails, it's like, hey, well
Speaker 3: what the hell are you doing? We've done that recently, Ariol.
Speaker 3: Are you in a who wants to be a millionaire? Background?
Speaker 3: What is your background you got going on?
Speaker 4: Here is a background? Yeah? Oh yeah, yeah yeah, who
Speaker 4: wants to be a millionaire? Of course, that's okay.
Speaker 2: We just phil Ben of course that that was a
Speaker 2: classic that started the whole revolution of game shows on TV,
Speaker 2: that you didn't have them for decades, then all of
Speaker 2: a sudden that started.
Speaker 1: I love it. I love when it popped on today.
Speaker 1: And this is why you watch on the YouTube channel
Speaker 1: because you can see Errow Cohen there is Uh right
Speaker 1: there ready for Reis to ask him a question. So
Speaker 1: does that mean I have to talk like this the
Speaker 1: rest of the show.
Speaker 3: These questions one thing to just throw out real quick.
Speaker 3: I don't we want to get into this quickly, but
Speaker 3: just want to give a shout out. ATC was voted
Speaker 3: as and there's always this debate because obviously ATC is
Speaker 3: an aggregate projection system, but there's also a lot of
Speaker 3: heart and soul put into it by ariol So there's
Speaker 3: this debate of like Ariols projections that are an aggregate
Speaker 3: versus the bad X, which was the highest individual projection
Speaker 3: system put up, but Ariols ATC was rated as the
Speaker 3: most accurate projection system. And I believe this has gone
Speaker 3: on for a couple of years here, and you've got
Speaker 3: some new stuff. I think you've aligned with a few
Speaker 3: new people. So I mean, ATC, I'm a big averages
Speaker 3: type of person. I'm not funny enough. I'm not like
Speaker 3: the most hardcore projections type of person, but I like
Speaker 3: to take a look at the highs and lows of
Speaker 3: things and kind of find the middle ground. And ATC
Speaker 3: does a good job about that. So I don't know
Speaker 3: if you have any thoughts about, just real quick, the
Speaker 3: accuracy that ATC has had over the last couple of years,
Speaker 3: and you know, just how the whole thing has been
Speaker 3: spitting out and what you're looking at this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is the fourth year in a
Speaker 2: row that Fantasy pros has dubbed me as the most
Speaker 2: accurate projection. So you know, we'll take that, and you know,
Speaker 2: it shows that we're getting into more places people are
Speaker 2: trusting it. It's a household name. I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: Derek Cardy actually uses ATC playing time within his own projection.
Speaker 2: He tries that now, so very excited, and uh hey,
Speaker 2: it's let's make it five in a row, right there.
Speaker 1: You go, just keep on going. The dynasty continues real quick,
Speaker 1: I want to ask the projection master, what do you
Speaker 1: think about stolen bases this year? I know you and
Speaker 1: I were kind of talking about, you know, the pitch clock,
Speaker 1: the ability to only throw over being limited by the pictures.
Speaker 1: Now what do you think kind of impact? Whyse you're
Speaker 1: going to see in stonn bases? Are we going to
Speaker 1: see a major uptick here potentially in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well the uptick was already starting this past year
Speaker 2: where we had that really low two years ago and
Speaker 2: it already started going.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're going to see more of that.
Speaker 2: The question though, is it going to be at the
Speaker 2: top of the curve it's going to be you know,
Speaker 2: the jorgemiteos and the Monday is going to sixty or
Speaker 2: is it just going to be a bunch of ten
Speaker 2: Stone based guys going to fifteen twenty.
Speaker 4: That remains to be seen.
Speaker 2: I think Stone bases is always a manager's call. It's opportunity.
Speaker 2: Are you stealing when you have the chance? So it
Speaker 2: remains to be seen. But yes, it's gonna be up
Speaker 2: all around. You're gonna see I'm not gonna say gigantic,
Speaker 2: but you're gonna see a very significant change, and it
Speaker 2: has to do mostly with a pickoff rule that pretty
Speaker 2: much it's with one pickloff and you're done.
Speaker 3: Well, we should have done this yesterday when Collett was
Speaker 3: on here, But Collet put out this really great tweet
Speaker 3: after the first week that was breaking down percentages and
Speaker 3: what it was was, and you probably saw it. It
Speaker 3: was what spring training stolen based numbers do compared to
Speaker 3: in season, and it was usually like a twenty percent
Speaker 3: decrease from what you see in spring training. Except the
Speaker 3: first week the numbers were the highest stolen base attempts
Speaker 3: in spring training since twenty twelve. I believe it was
Speaker 3: ten to eleven years, so that inherently was showing that
Speaker 3: we were going to see a massive increase over the
Speaker 3: last couple though I do feel like the last week
Speaker 3: and a half or so stolen bases have kind of
Speaker 3: tapered down. I don't believe there's a single player with
Speaker 3: over two stolen bases in spring training, so I've got
Speaker 3: that down a little bit. At the end of the day,
Speaker 3: the math that Collett put out was like a twenty
Speaker 3: five percent increase. Do you believe we will see a
Speaker 3: twenty to twenty five percent stolen based increase across the
Speaker 3: whole league. You said, you don't know if it'll be
Speaker 3: the top guys of the middle guys. But do you
Speaker 3: think we'll see like an overall twenty to twenty five
Speaker 3: percent stolen base increase.
Speaker 2: No, I think that's way too high number. I think
Speaker 2: we're gonna get closer to ten, fifteen, maybe twenty. That's
Speaker 2: the kapper. You know, I don't really trust the spring
Speaker 2: training stats. So first of all, this first week they're
Speaker 2: trying every which way to do everything new.
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna rely on it.
Speaker 2: And by the way, because of the WBC, you have
Speaker 2: a lot of major league players not in spring training,
Speaker 2: so the spring training stats in general are gonna be
Speaker 2: pretty murky. I would not put any any emphasis on that.
Speaker 2: But yeah, the answer the question again, no, that that
Speaker 2: seems too high. I'd say closer to fifteen, maybe twenty.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the breakouts here. Let's start
Speaker 1: with Ketcher. The boys here put together, they're all breakout team.
Speaker 1: The guys are gonna take their game to the next level.
Speaker 1: So Ariel Coon a Ketcher who's taking the field for you?
Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna go with logan o'happy. Yes, it's
Speaker 2: pronounced like sloppy o'happy.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: He the breakout here, I always you always want to
Speaker 2: have a reason for the breakout, and this reason is
Speaker 2: playing time. Last year, Sean Murphy just completely came out
Speaker 2: to the field and burst onto value because he got
Speaker 2: so many more at bats than what everyone predicted. And
Speaker 2: I think that's the case with o'hapi here. He's got
Speaker 2: a nice base of power. His average two forty one
Speaker 2: I'm projecting, which is actually pretty good for what would
Speaker 2: be a second catcher. The ATC volatility metrics show low violativity,
Speaker 2: like we have a very good idea of what he
Speaker 2: is and who's in front of him. Max Stassy. Stassy
Speaker 2: had a one eighty average last year. I can't see
Speaker 2: him being a threat. I think you're going to see
Speaker 2: by the end of the year Ohapi being the main
Speaker 2: catcher and whatever people have projected for him, he's going
Speaker 2: to pass it. I can see him getting the line
Speaker 2: and share so ohappy because of the at bats is
Speaker 2: going to be a good fantasy buye.
Speaker 1: Well, at your bachelor party, didn't you have a sloppyo hoppy?
Speaker 1: I want to.
Speaker 3: Say, we don't talk about that. We don't talk about
Speaker 3: what happened at the bachelor parties. Sloppy o'happies are not shoe,
Speaker 3: thank you very much.
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting because this is the same player. A
Speaker 1: few weeks back, we had Frank Stanfel on the show
Speaker 1: and he was very high on AHAPI as well. So
Speaker 1: when smart people are all talking about the same players
Speaker 1: every much, you take notice, Welsh, who is your catcher
Speaker 1: for the all breakout team with twenty three?
Speaker 3: I would have picked Logan o'happy Sloppy o'happy had I've
Speaker 3: been given the opportunity.
Speaker 1: I'm never gonna not think of him with that name.
Speaker 3: Now, thanks very now, thanks you ruined it. The guy
Speaker 3: I picked was Tyler Stevenson with the Cincinnati Reds. It's
Speaker 3: actually a very similar situation you want to talk about,
Speaker 3: like you're looking at playing time. Give me a catcher
Speaker 3: that comes at a cheap cost. I think I said
Speaker 3: this yesterday. I don't want to catcher inside my top
Speaker 3: one hundred. No thanks, it's immediate bust territory for me,
Speaker 3: even if they produce well, I don't want to get
Speaker 3: that cost because I think there's a lot of good
Speaker 3: value later. But if you're talking about breakouts, I don't
Speaker 3: really think William Contreras fits the breakout. Who's someone I
Speaker 3: would want Sean Murphy, but Tyler Stevenson specifically does. Tyler
Speaker 3: Stevenson suffered from some injuries last year, was not able
Speaker 3: to get a full season, and they're also talking about
Speaker 3: him playing a significant amount of games at first base.
Speaker 3: You've got injuries with Joey Vado, so he's going to
Speaker 3: be playing kind of all across the board. Fun fact
Speaker 3: as well, did you know he is projected with the
Speaker 3: third best batting average in ATC projections. Give me a
Speaker 3: high batting aver on a catcher who makes really good
Speaker 3: contact skill sixteen homers on ATC projections that I think
Speaker 3: he can get twenty plus. He's going to hit closer
Speaker 3: to a middle of the lineup for the Reds, and
Speaker 3: his cost is outside the top ten catchers. As a
Speaker 3: matter of fact, one sixty eight on the aggregate ADP
Speaker 3: on Fantasy pros. That's a pretty good volume, which is
Speaker 3: boosted up because of NFBC. NFBC screwing that up a
Speaker 3: little bit. It's probably closer to two hundred. So give
Speaker 3: me a closer that's going to hit inside the top
Speaker 3: five of a lineup with playing time move different positions,
Speaker 3: has twenty plus power and top five best batting average
Speaker 3: projections on ATC Huh, let's go.
Speaker 4: I like it.
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, guys, but I mean, certainly
Speaker 1: for the listeners here, I'm sure they would love to
Speaker 1: have the well scherero Cone inside the draft with them.
Speaker 1: They love to have all the experts with them, and
Speaker 1: we could do that for you at Fantasy Pros. So
Speaker 1: the Draft Assistant is the ultimate tool for dominating your
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball draft. And what it does is basically synks
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Speaker 1: take your favorite experts put those in to the Draft
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Speaker 1: If you've seen our shows here at Fantasy Pros, when
Speaker 1: we do our mock draft shows, you'll see all the
Speaker 1: times where it gives you recommendations on players. It tells
Speaker 1: you who is picking after you and already has certain
Speaker 1: positions filled. And that's huge because that's the difference of
Speaker 1: you making the right pick at the right time and
Speaker 1: not and making those right picks are everything when you're
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Speaker 1: ahead and get a piece of this, you get that
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Speaker 1: right pick at the right time with the analysis after
Speaker 1: the drafts. Well Welsh always does that. Also on all
Speaker 1: the shows, they always plug in their teams afterwards. But
Speaker 1: you don't want to do that afterwards. You want to
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Speaker 1: Slash Premium Go Premium today and don't forget you can
Speaker 1: manage all your lineups from Fantasy Pros. It's right. You
Speaker 1: got ten leagues. You could set all your lines in
Speaker 1: one place. AyL Cone is like twenty leagues. I'm sure
Speaker 1: that's a very useful thing for him. He should be
Speaker 1: using the tools if he's not, especially since he's like
Speaker 1: number one guy at Fantasy Pros every year. So here
Speaker 1: we go, arial Cohen, Let's go for the first basement
Speaker 1: for the breakout twenty twenty three team. Who is it?
Speaker 4: All right?
Speaker 2: We'll go with Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor, and
Speaker 2: there's plenty of room for him to play either first
Speaker 2: or even at DH.
Speaker 4: Last year he was.
Speaker 2: Amazing twenty homers, seventy nine RBIs even stole six bases.
Speaker 2: We know stolen base are going up, so it could
Speaker 2: even be eight ten, you never know. Decent average. I'm
Speaker 2: projecting him for two to sixty five batting average. The
Speaker 2: thing about picking some of these guys is that players
Speaker 2: who bat in the middle lineup, and the Guardians are
Speaker 2: gonna be a decent lineup. They've got Rosario in there, Menez,
Speaker 2: Josh Spell. Now you're gonna have a lot of runs
Speaker 2: in RBIs. That's forty percent of your rodo statistics or
Speaker 2: runs at RBIs and he's got the power in dustin
Speaker 2: speed and some average. So this is the guy with
Speaker 2: with that, and I think he's relatively safe. Look at
Speaker 2: a strikeout rate last year, sixteen percent strikeout rate, and
Speaker 2: that's been a long track. I mean, he's been under
Speaker 2: twenty every single year of his career pretty much. So
Speaker 2: we're talking about a safe guy who's gonna get a
Speaker 2: lot of stats, and nobody's paying for him. He's going
Speaker 2: like the sixteenth seventeenth round of drafts all day.
Speaker 1: Gil. It's amazing because we do so many drafts here
Speaker 1: in the MOCKX and this is a player that keeps
Speaker 1: falling and I keep stashing him as like an extra
Speaker 1: utility guy. I mean, I just I don't get it, Aro.
Speaker 1: I'm with you one hundred percent on Nailor, and I've
Speaker 1: been picking him up, and every time I do, the
Speaker 1: draft Wizard gives me that little a little clap, the
Speaker 1: little golf clop, which is, yeah, you know I need that.
Speaker 1: I need my self. Esteems very low Welsh. Let's go
Speaker 1: to your first baseman, who is and this is a
Speaker 1: player too that we talked about a little yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I try to talk about him pretty much wherever
Speaker 3: I can, and I actually slid him over to this
Speaker 3: spot because most places he is going to qualify at
Speaker 3: third basis Jose Miranda, who is one of my favorite
Speaker 3: late guys. You know, I use the term. I believe
Speaker 3: it was last year where ty France was kind of
Speaker 3: a glue piece. There's these players that maybe they're not
Speaker 3: exceptional in a lot of different areas, but I feel
Speaker 3: like everything that they do really work for the game,
Speaker 3: and I view Jose Miranda as a glue piece, but
Speaker 3: I also think there's just a ton of upside. One
Speaker 3: of my favorite things I've cided at gajillion times over,
Speaker 3: but if you're new listening, is his approach last year
Speaker 3: in two strike counts was better than most people in
Speaker 3: the league. It was two of the three two strike
Speaker 3: counts you can have, he hit over three hundred. The
Speaker 3: other was two forty, and that was better than Mooki
Speaker 3: Betts kind of across the board. It's a kind of
Speaker 3: ironically weird stat but it just showed the plate presence,
Speaker 3: which I love about him because he's a sub twenty
Speaker 3: percent k guy, which I think is huge for his
Speaker 3: game as he continues to grow. The Baseball Savant sheet
Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily jump out to you, but he had a
Speaker 3: forty two percent hard hit rate. I think the power
Speaker 3: is going to jump up. Max Ev was right around
Speaker 3: one ten this past year. XBA was a little bit
Speaker 3: lower than his actual batting average, but it was still
Speaker 3: in line. And this is a great lineup for him
Speaker 3: to put up run and RBI numbers. Plus he's going
Speaker 3: to qualify at third base. I think Cozy Miranda has
Speaker 3: a real, real chance to be twenty plus homers with
Speaker 3: eighty eighty on the run in RBI and hit two
Speaker 3: seventy to two eighty. He's not going to steal a
Speaker 3: whole lot of bases, but he's going to provide you
Speaker 3: pretty high end on the other four categories, homers being
Speaker 3: a little bit of question that. I think he's ready
Speaker 3: for a breakout regardless. And it's first and third that
Speaker 3: he qualifies at, So that's going to be my pick here.
Speaker 1: Love Miranda, another guy. I think it's just super undervalued
Speaker 1: and not getting enough press. Right now, let's go to
Speaker 1: the second base situation here. Back to you, Ariel, who's
Speaker 1: the second basement. That's a potential breakout in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2: Right back to your twins there, Nick Gordon. Nick Gordon
Speaker 2: the brother of formerly Baijor League baseball player De Gordon.
Speaker 2: This guy has a lot of potential, and by the way,
Speaker 2: he also qualifies in the outfield, So if you have
Speaker 2: your team, you can move him and use him. As
Speaker 2: you speak, power speed combo. We're talking a guy who
Speaker 2: can put up ten to ten maybe even twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: I can see that happening even this year. And the
Speaker 2: batting average won't be thrilling, but it's not gonna be terrible.
Speaker 2: He's got a twenty three percent strike out rate, so
Speaker 2: not a leader or anything but major league average. The
Speaker 2: question is playing time. Will he play enough? Well, he
Speaker 2: played four undred at bats last year, and let's see
Speaker 2: who's on the team. Well, they shipped Luis Arayaz out
Speaker 2: to clear room of second base for him. That's good.
Speaker 2: Happened in the outfield, Well you got Byron Buckson. Sure
Speaker 2: Byron Buckston never gets hurt, so I'm sure.
Speaker 1: He right earmuffs Welsh ear muffs.
Speaker 2: Sorry about that, but it is true. Sorry, I just
Speaker 2: go by history. So we're talking about a high skilled player.
Speaker 2: I like to bet on high skilled players. You know
Speaker 2: who this reminds me of, or at least not exactly
Speaker 2: in profile, but in terms of the skills d J
Speaker 2: lamy who in terms of value. I always said, hey,
Speaker 2: or the Yank's gonna play him. Probably looks like we'll
Speaker 2: play him four days, three days. But you know what,
Speaker 2: high skilled players get to play, and he did. Nick
Speaker 2: Gordon is a high skilled player. I don't think that
Speaker 2: he's gonna be stopped so so he's gonna benefit from that,
Speaker 2: and he could really help your team down the stretch
Speaker 2: if you need to fill those extra homers and stolen
Speaker 2: bases at about pick three hundred, yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean gosh. In terms of the ADP too, he's
Speaker 1: talking about free players. He had four hundred at bats
Speaker 1: last year. As you were saying, is this another player
Speaker 1: to arrow that you know because of the athleticism, could
Speaker 1: be another guy where those six stolen bases and one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six games could double or maybe even triple.
Speaker 2: Totally, Absolutely, this is exactly the kind of player that's
Speaker 2: going to look to make his mark and use his
Speaker 2: fantasy use his real life baseball value wherever he can.
Speaker 2: And he has the ability to steal the rules are
Speaker 2: had that way. That's how he's going to force his
Speaker 2: way to even more value and more playing time for
Speaker 2: the Twins.
Speaker 1: Composite ADP on Fantasy Program four fifty Nick Gordon, So free,
Speaker 1: baby free, Let's go all right, Welsh back to you
Speaker 1: for the second base.
Speaker 3: Who you have actually mine is another one of those guys,
Speaker 3: just like Ariol said, we're going to talk about him
Speaker 3: in this position, but he qualifies with some others and
Speaker 3: he's actually going to play a different position, but at C. J.
Speaker 3: Abrams who should qualify at second and in shortstop for everybody,
Speaker 3: But I'm going to line him in here at second
Speaker 3: base because this actually might even be a better spot
Speaker 3: that you would want him in. I have loved from
Speaker 3: day one the sprint speed in the miners, even before
Speaker 3: really paying attention to Corbyn Carroll's fast speed numbers. There
Speaker 3: was this Abrams type speed years years ago. It was
Speaker 3: the Buston speed and then it become kind of Abrams
Speaker 3: to me, and he flies around ninety first percentile as
Speaker 3: far as sprint speed goes, already has a stolen base
Speaker 3: in spring. He's had a pretty good spring as well,
Speaker 3: hitting two seventy eight five hits and eighteen at bats,
Speaker 3: and he looks like he's going to have the gig
Speaker 3: the entire time. He has put up little Kotel Marteus
Speaker 3: in him where he has like high hard hit numbers,
Speaker 3: but his average evs sit pretty low, which I just
Speaker 3: think shows like when he starts to tap in, it's
Speaker 3: going to get there. The stolen base numbers, I think
Speaker 3: is where every projection is just off on him right now,
Speaker 3: similar to Corbyn Carroll, I think they're wildly off atc
Speaker 3: is low on the homers at seven, but has seventeen
Speaker 3: stolen bases, which essentially is the highest, not counting like zips,
Speaker 3: which I think a really good starting point at one
Speaker 3: thirty six. He makes good contact, he doesn't strike out
Speaker 3: a bunch sixteen percent strikeout rate in the majors last year.
Speaker 3: He's just got to walk more. Here's a little upside
Speaker 3: is in that lineup right now, they have Corey Dickerson
Speaker 3: hitting two according to roster resource. If he continues to
Speaker 3: hit well, CJ. Abrams will lead off or hit two
Speaker 3: for this team, and he will run on a team.
Speaker 3: They need to manufacture these runs. So what I like
Speaker 3: about him is I like the idea that we could
Speaker 3: get ten homers, ten to twelve somewhere in there, and
Speaker 3: I think twenty five with a little bit more upside
Speaker 3: on the stolen basis because they will manufacture and this
Speaker 3: is how he's going to get hit. Job done on
Speaker 3: the base pass. When he made his pro debut, I
Speaker 3: was at it out here the Diamondbacks immediately was trying
Speaker 3: to steal. It's what he wants to do. At the
Speaker 3: end of the day, he just has to hit. Looks
Speaker 3: like he's starting to get into that space having a
Speaker 3: good spring. I think CJ. Abrams with the stolen base upside,
Speaker 3: is one of those players that's ready to break out.
Speaker 1: And too, I keep talking about Abrams be gooes. I
Speaker 1: think the leash is going to be long Welsh where
Speaker 1: you know he's going to get a chance to fail,
Speaker 1: and I think think that's important because they have no
Speaker 1: other options there. They have to have him succeed. Players
Speaker 1: don't come back exactly like you know, it's his job.
Speaker 1: So that is always encouraging too. If you make an
Speaker 1: investment in a player and there's somebody else that could
Speaker 1: push for playing time, if that player struggles, they're going
Speaker 1: to pass him over Allah Jared Kellnik the last couple years,
Speaker 1: right with Seattle Mariners, players like that Abrams is the guy.
Speaker 1: They've got to get a return from him to justify
Speaker 1: the move that they made trading Won Soto. So that
Speaker 1: to me is a good enough reason to be patient
Speaker 1: with Abrams do. But everything well shd in terms of
Speaker 1: upside is there. Let's go to third base here, let's
Speaker 1: flip around Welsh. You give me your third base breakout
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty three. And shame on Jason Kleette for
Speaker 1: the shade yesterday that he threw on this player.
Speaker 3: We're just not having it. We're not here, We're not
Speaker 3: having it. Jason Kollett's gone trying to ruin, just trying
Speaker 3: to say something in the point.
Speaker 1: And if you missed yesterday's show, go back and listen.
Speaker 1: It's a great show. And he brought up a lot
Speaker 1: of great points on a lot of players that we
Speaker 1: are very into, which is good because it it does
Speaker 1: remind us, Hey, you know there's a downside here too,
Speaker 1: which is great. But will she and I are going
Speaker 1: to try to be practically cautiously optimistic here with the
Speaker 1: Jordan Walker.
Speaker 3: We need that, we need a video. We need the
Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros video team to do that video and put
Speaker 3: Debbie downer. Every time he would talk, we'd be like,
Speaker 3: here's your bus Spencer strainer and then just closed on
Speaker 3: his face. He was killing us. But Jordan Walker, I
Speaker 3: tried to not have like rookies on this list because
Speaker 3: you know, are they even in a space of breaking out.
Speaker 3: Sometimes you think about breakouts as like having opportunity, not
Speaker 3: necessarily going like Jared Kelln, it could be one of
Speaker 3: those players you could throw in here. But Jordan Walker,
Speaker 3: with the breakout really exists is him being able to
Speaker 3: go full throttle. He was Julio Rodriguez and he's still.
Speaker 3: It's amazing, by the way it is March seventh, as
Speaker 3: recording this, he is what Julio Rodriguez was in early
Speaker 3: February of last year, and that the just has not
Speaker 3: caught up, the drafting and the excitement has not caught
Speaker 3: up because we haven't got the official announcement of his
Speaker 3: playing time. And if he does, we're gonna go because
Speaker 3: this is a big power speed combo player who's having
Speaker 3: a fantastic spring. He's crushing the ball and he is
Speaker 3: aligning himself at every opportunity to get the job. And
Speaker 3: the thing that stood out to me from day one
Speaker 3: was when they moved Tyler O'Neal off. As soon as
Speaker 3: they moved Tyler O'Neal off, I thought that is just
Speaker 3: a close, close sign that they want to have that
Speaker 3: spot open right field is where Jordan Walker they're the
Speaker 3: most comfortable with and they wanted to find their flexibility
Speaker 3: and they want them up rather sooner than later. And
Speaker 3: I think what the breakout is, He's the breakout in
Speaker 3: your fantasy value where you're gonna get nineteen homers, twenty
Speaker 3: two stolen bases in twenty twenty two, had a great
Speaker 3: fall league, hit three hundred, makes good contact, doesn't strike
Speaker 3: out a bunch, he can walk, and he can run.
Speaker 3: For a six foot five, two hundred and twenty five
Speaker 3: pound plus outfielder, it's crazy stuff and it is just
Speaker 3: I know it's reminiscent of Julio and I know it's
Speaker 3: dangerous to talk about, but Jordan Walker is primed to
Speaker 3: have that breakout and he's not coming at the cost
Speaker 3: at least yet. It's gonna break everybody's heart. Like I'm
Speaker 3: I'm Corbyn, Carroll Corbick, Like everyone's gonna love for Corby.
Speaker 1: Carroll's gonna break my home. Got the Jews behind your
Speaker 1: head there. But you know what, I am not concerned
Speaker 1: the Corby Carroll that I watched last year. I mean,
Speaker 1: I see a major league player. I see a guy
Speaker 1: who's ready to go. Walker has a little bit more.
Speaker 1: I think my point is, well, because you know, you
Speaker 1: don't want to have a triple af batch, you don't
Speaker 1: have that window. I think the thing is, like you said,
Speaker 1: it's the value you're getting at Walker and with Walker
Speaker 1: right now, even if you get three to four months
Speaker 1: of productivity, you'll get all six because he does spend
Speaker 1: some time in the minor leagues or maybe struggles, he
Speaker 1: gets sent down, comes back. There's all these variables, but
Speaker 1: the cost. As long as you have a patient approach
Speaker 1: to this, he could certainly pay off and still be
Speaker 1: a good investment.
Speaker 3: And that's exactly it. One fifty plus ADP still and
Speaker 3: I would even admit, you know, to Corbyn Carroll. NFBC
Speaker 3: just tweeted out that he had a fifty four ADP
Speaker 3: and like a couple drafts that he had just done
Speaker 3: a fifty. There's a lot of room for disappointment. It's
Speaker 3: hard to have the disappointment, but if you get you
Speaker 3: might get a twenty twenty season out of Jordan Walker
Speaker 3: when he hasn't been announced for the position and he's
Speaker 3: going to have a big breakout and he really has
Speaker 3: the shot to be a rookie breakout that a lot
Speaker 3: of people they were expecting, but he wasn't priced in
Speaker 3: that he actually was expecting because if he was, he'd
Speaker 3: be a top one hundred guy.
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Speaker 1: fantasy sports and now back to the action. Ariel your
Speaker 1: third basement is a fascinating choice because this is a
Speaker 1: player that I think disappointing a lot of people last year,
Speaker 1: and then there were some questions about, you know, is
Speaker 1: this player soft and all these other things. So let's
Speaker 1: talk about the third base selection for you in the breakout.
Speaker 1: What do you see from him?
Speaker 2: I have Alec Bohm, or call him Alec Baum, who's
Speaker 2: gonna hit a bunch of homers this year. I don't
Speaker 2: know why people were disappointed last year. He turned in
Speaker 2: a sixteen dollars performance in a fifteen team league. It's
Speaker 2: seventy nine runs and seventy two RBIs and hit to eighty.
Speaker 2: I had him on a few teams, and I was
Speaker 2: not disappointed in the least. I think, actually, uh, listen,
Speaker 2: ATC projects him to be fantastic this year, and I
Speaker 2: think he's even better than I think he can hit
Speaker 2: over twenty homers. I was watching him in spring training.
Speaker 2: He's hitting bombs, and he's not just clearing the fences.
Speaker 2: He's going dead center, he's going right over. I think
Speaker 2: he could also put in a few steals. He's stolen
Speaker 2: a couple pass a couple of bases in the past
Speaker 2: only to last year, but I think that can go
Speaker 2: up to five to six. I think that the power
Speaker 2: metrics were unlucky last year, so that's gonna really, that's
Speaker 2: gonna really materialize this year. And again he's a very low,
Speaker 2: very high sorry, very high contact, low strikeout rate type player,
Speaker 2: So there is very little downside with him. You're getting
Speaker 2: a guy at a big discount up with upside and
Speaker 2: no downside. Really, the only downside is he's a terrible fielder.
Speaker 2: I mean, I was watching him the other game and
Speaker 2: there was a pop up, you know, just outside the
Speaker 2: foul line, and he drops it, and I'm thinking to myself, would.
Speaker 4: I have made that catch?
Speaker 2: And I was trying to be honest with myself, and
Speaker 2: I really think I would have made that catch. It
Speaker 2: was really he and he didn't. So I'm not saying
Speaker 2: that I belong in the major leagues, but I'm saying
Speaker 2: that his defense is pretty shoddy. But that is not
Speaker 2: so the only thing I like to see himprove is
Speaker 2: is walk rate only five percent last year, but it
Speaker 2: has been up to almost nine percent in the past.
Speaker 2: So if that all comes together, we're talking about a
Speaker 2: really major good bye here. This is a this is
Speaker 2: a prime breakout in my opinion.
Speaker 3: He also was like my number one weirdest interview I
Speaker 3: ever did. By the way, Yeah, weirdest interview I've ever done.
Speaker 3: But I actually was thinking about picking him on this list.
Speaker 1: Here, Arian, I want to know something, what about the
Speaker 1: splits on this player too? Because against Righty's last year
Speaker 1: six twenty nine ops, but ten of his thirteen home
Speaker 1: runs against our handed pitching. Against left he is a
Speaker 1: nine to thirty five OPS. Also, the batting average very different,
Speaker 1: three fifty two against left handed pitching, two fifty three
Speaker 1: against right handed. I mean two fifty three is okay,
Speaker 1: but it's more of the ops that I'm curious about.
Speaker 1: Does that split scary you, especially in those head to
Speaker 1: head formats potentially, because you know, not being able to
Speaker 1: hit right handed pitching at a standard clip there, that
Speaker 1: can be a big red flag sometimes on a player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, with that in the defense, you know, yeah, it
Speaker 2: does beg Hey, are they going to get a filling guy?
Speaker 2: But looking at their roster, they have not. I think
Speaker 2: they want to let him work it out. I think
Speaker 2: that they have quite a lot of pieces around it.
Speaker 2: They got Tree Turner in. You know, Harper is gonna
Speaker 2: be back in the middle of the year. I think
Speaker 2: they're gonna go with what they have. I mean, you're
Speaker 2: right about weird. I remember, I can't remember when it was,
Speaker 2: but they caught him on a hot mic saying I
Speaker 2: can't stand this team or something like that.
Speaker 1: And now E didn't like Philadelphia, which is not a
Speaker 1: good thing to say to Philadelphia. Yeah, I lived there
Speaker 1: for six years.
Speaker 2: No, of course they fired Girardi, and I think that
Speaker 2: helped they sort of made Yeah.
Speaker 4: So he's thick a well, he's a little wild, but.
Speaker 2: No, I think I think the value is going to
Speaker 2: be there, and he just locked in this spring, just
Speaker 2: three homers already dead center homers, and there's a lot
Speaker 2: more to come.
Speaker 1: I think, all right, let's get the next position here.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about shortstop. Welch, let's go back to you.
Speaker 1: Who is your shortstop that could break out in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three.
Speaker 3: This is probably one of the biggest names. I think
Speaker 3: this might be the biggest name from name value that's
Speaker 3: on my list. But he didn't break out, and it's
Speaker 3: wander Franco Wanafroanco. The first month of the season last year,
Speaker 3: something I really try to keep coming back to. It
Speaker 3: obviously could be an anomaly, but in March, in April
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty two, hit three thirteen with four homers.
Speaker 3: He had three stolen bases, was a little bit more aggressive.
Speaker 3: He doesn't usually strike out as much as well, and
Speaker 3: he was striking out a little bit more because it
Speaker 3: looked like he was swinging through the fences then got hurt,
Speaker 3: and that kind of just carried through the entirety of
Speaker 3: the year, and I think that's going to go by
Speaker 3: the wayside long term with wander Franco. I think we're
Speaker 3: going to get back. I mean, obviously, the contact skills
Speaker 3: I think speak for themselves, as far as he doesn't
Speaker 3: strike out under ten percent strikeout rate linelast year almost
Speaker 3: a higher walk percentage. He hit two seventy eight even
Speaker 3: in a struggle time. If you were to project his
Speaker 3: numbers out, you would essentially be like twelve to fifteen
Speaker 3: let's just call it twelve fifteen on the year, which
Speaker 3: would be pretty solid. But I think he's ready to
Speaker 3: take major steps as more of an aggressive power hitter
Speaker 3: that's going to hit in the middle of the lineup,
Speaker 3: and I think there's a decent shot we could have
Speaker 3: a twenty fifteen season coming up for Wanderfranco. In spring,
Speaker 3: He's having a solid spring. He's hitting five hundred, he's
Speaker 3: got a homer, he's got a stolen base, he's four
Speaker 3: for eight. You like to see that spring numbers don't
Speaker 3: necessarily mean anything, but you want to see them walk
Speaker 3: in and wander. Franco has He has an aggressive hitters approach,
Speaker 3: not just like I'm trying to make contact and swing
Speaker 3: across your body and just hit line drives, like he
Speaker 3: wants to destroy baseballs. And I think this year he's
Speaker 3: going to have a better opportunity to destroy baseballs now
Speaker 3: that he is healthier, and I think he can repeat
Speaker 3: more of that March April, and his ADP is going
Speaker 3: to look a lot better. Where I've been focusing the
Speaker 3: last couple episodes of those back end shortstops. I don't
Speaker 3: really like, you know, Collett didn't like the N three Swans,
Speaker 3: and I didn't really either. Tim Anderson has a ton
Speaker 3: of injury issues, Carlos Korea all that Wanda Franco is
Speaker 3: in that area. He kind of ends that tier of
Speaker 3: shortstops that I would really want, even though it's like, oh,
Speaker 3: it's fifteen deep, it's not really, it's not really. Wanna
Speaker 3: Franco is one of those I would want to make
Speaker 3: a bet on this year, though.
Speaker 1: At twenty two years old, I think it's crazy for
Speaker 1: anybody to even think about the notion of giving up
Speaker 1: on Wander Franco right now. I mean, I'd be all
Speaker 1: over him. This is the last time you're getting a discount, too,
Speaker 1: so I'd be buying him in Dynasty. I'll be buying
Speaker 1: him keeper leagues, anywhere I could get him. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on to shortstop for you, Ariel Cohen, who
Speaker 1: is grabbing the bat taking a glove for breakouts twenty
Speaker 1: twenty three.
Speaker 2: I usually don't pick players who haven't had much major
Speaker 2: league experience, and I usually don't pick Rockies because they
Speaker 2: mishandle rookies and prospects. But Ezekiel Tovar really looks primed.
Speaker 2: Brendan Rodgers pretty much hurt for the year. They had
Speaker 2: to even import Mike Lustakas in the infield. So Ezekiel
Speaker 2: Tovar is going to be the starting shortstop. He's gonna
Speaker 2: get all the playing time in the world. And projections
Speaker 2: are not great on CARDI will tell you this all
Speaker 2: the time. Usually doesn't excite projections, but ATC is very excited,
Speaker 2: almost a fifteen to fifteen projection with a two seventy
Speaker 2: average strike out raid under twenty percent. Very very excited
Speaker 2: about him. So we're talking about power, speed, and average blend.
Speaker 2: And here's a little secret about Colorado Rockies for this year.
Speaker 2: They're actually better than you even think. First of all,
Speaker 2: the Rockies manufacture quite a lot of runs. They're the
Speaker 2: number one most highest run scoring team in all of
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball last year, so if you want runs
Speaker 2: at RBIs, that's the place to be. They also don't
Speaker 2: have a great pitching staff, so they're gonna try and
Speaker 2: manufacture some runs and steals could be up. But how
Speaker 2: about the power? Everyone says, well, yep, they play in cores.
Speaker 2: Well that's the reason to buy him. But well, they
Speaker 2: play in a very tough division. Actually, with the balance schedule,
Speaker 2: they're no longer going ten times to the Dodger Stadium.
Speaker 2: They're not going to the Giant Stadium. They're not playing
Speaker 2: the Padres all those times. They're playing teams in the
Speaker 2: Central and the Al Central. They have a better schedule
Speaker 2: in better ballparks. The average ballpark factor for a Rockies
Speaker 2: hitter has gone up, and it was high to begin with,
Speaker 2: so secret secret Rockies hitters are even better than you
Speaker 2: think this year, and Tovar is primed to break out
Speaker 2: and he's still going at a very manageable cost in
Speaker 2: drafts this year. So I like the guy. Get him
Speaker 2: soon though, because since Rogers has been hurt, his ADPA
Speaker 2: is rising.
Speaker 4: You got to buy now.
Speaker 1: I hope you're not in a lot of leagues with
Speaker 1: Standful because this is another one of Frank's guys too,
Speaker 1: so I hope you guys are separated out.
Speaker 4: I'll be drafting it with him in two weeks and tout.
Speaker 1: Wars, Oh no, I can't wait to see that battle
Speaker 1: to the death. All right, let's talk about the outfielders
Speaker 1: here on your list. Let's run through the three of
Speaker 1: them here. Jake McCarthy is the first one aerial. This
Speaker 1: is player. Ironically yesterday was on Collet's bust list. I
Speaker 1: can't wait now, So take us through McCarthy first, and
Speaker 1: then your other two outfielders on this list. Let's do
Speaker 1: them as a as a cluster together.
Speaker 2: Yeah, McCarthy, this is a gut. He's gonna steal thirty
Speaker 2: forty base this year. He had twenty three stone bases
Speaker 2: in three hundred and twenty one at bats and that's
Speaker 2: just gonna continue this year. Batting average fantastic two eighty
Speaker 2: three last year. So he's getting on base. He's gonna
Speaker 2: bat in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup, third, second,
Speaker 2: maybe right right where Corman Carroll is. Christian Walker is
Speaker 2: gonna have a lot of chances to score runs, a
Speaker 2: lot of RBIs. I see categories all across the board.
Speaker 2: Probably he might even get to ten homers. So he's
Speaker 2: not a zero in that stat So we're talking about
Speaker 2: you know, this is like Starling Marte almost and you're
Speaker 2: getting him not You don't have to pay all that
Speaker 2: much for him. I bought him yesterday in a couple
Speaker 2: of days ago in the mixed labor auction for like
Speaker 2: fourteen bucks, So he's going for a nice discount. You're
Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of stats out of him. Fantastic
Speaker 2: by for McCarthy.
Speaker 1: All right, who are the other two outfitters you have
Speaker 1: on your list as well?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I have a TJ. Fredell and or I think
Speaker 4: Fredel TJ. Friedel and Jose Siri TJ. Friedel.
Speaker 2: I also think is very very interesting. This is a
Speaker 2: guy who is hitting first in the lineup in the Reds.
Speaker 2: They're not a fantastic team, but that ballpark is amazing.
Speaker 2: So you got a power speed combo. He's batting first.
Speaker 2: He hit five home runs in September this year. I
Speaker 2: love to look at guys who in September really went off.
Speaker 2: That tells me something about the next year. So that's him.
Speaker 2: He's gonna get the playing time. No one's kicking him
Speaker 2: out that spot. And now, Jose Siri, you know Tampa
Speaker 2: Bay Rays do a lot of platuning, but he might
Speaker 2: get some extra playing time. And this guy has fifteen
Speaker 2: twenty ability. So if you're looking for a little spark
Speaker 2: of his power speed, blend Layton draft. He's going like
Speaker 2: around three thirty or so. Jose Siri, give you a
Speaker 2: little bit of extra accounting stats when you need it.
Speaker 1: Now, if you're a fan of the show here, you
Speaker 1: know that Lars new Bar is obviously going to be
Speaker 1: on Welsh's breakout list for the outfield. But there's another
Speaker 1: two names on here too, Brian De la Cruz, Riley
Speaker 1: Green Green. I can't wait to hear you talk about.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about these three outfielders that you have
Speaker 1: and why Welsh you think these three are going to
Speaker 1: break out in twenty three.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, we'll just get Lars out of the way.
Speaker 3: I've done it enough. But really fantastic interview. I want
Speaker 3: to point out Inenosaurus did on rates and barrels with
Speaker 3: Lars where he talked about a lot of the vest
Speaker 3: training he did and barreling like that was the big
Speaker 3: focus because the year before he had worked so much
Speaker 3: on his hard hit numbers and we saw that come through.
Speaker 3: By the way, he had a forty six percent hard
Speaker 3: hit rate, which was fantastic. He barreled the ball a
Speaker 3: really good amount. He had a MAXIV of one thirteen
Speaker 3: and an average of ninety one point seven on his
Speaker 3: average exit velocity, and that was the big focus going
Speaker 3: into last year was just hitting the ball hard. Now,
Speaker 3: the focus he did in some of his drive line
Speaker 3: adjustments was taking that hard hit and working on making
Speaker 3: sure the contact the barreling of it. And I just
Speaker 3: think that he has taken to every step with huge strides.
Speaker 3: His XBA was like twenty plus points higher than his
Speaker 3: actual batting average would have been closer to around a
Speaker 3: two to fifty hitter hit fourteen home er in one
Speaker 3: hundred and eight games ATC's got him at twenty homers,
Speaker 3: the highest of any projection system. It's actually in line
Speaker 3: with ZIPS, which we all can laugh about. Is like
Speaker 3: big crazy numbers twenty with six dolen bases in a
Speaker 3: two forty three batting average. And what I would like
Speaker 3: to point out about that is that is in one
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty nine games, and that is kind of
Speaker 3: on an average baseline. I don't think it's out of
Speaker 3: the question that Large Nubar hits twenty five homers and
Speaker 3: steals ten bases this year with a decent average. The
Speaker 3: other two guys, Brian de la Cruz I've called Brian
Speaker 3: de la Cruz Taoscar Hernandez Light or you know, maybe
Speaker 3: more of a Walmart version of Taoscar Hernandez. It's going
Speaker 3: to be about playing time ultimately with him because he
Speaker 3: has huge hard hit numbers, huge exit velocity numbers. X
Speaker 3: wOBA was in the nineteth percentile ninety six percent XBA
Speaker 3: from this past year. His XBA was actually two eighty
Speaker 3: seven when he hit two fifty two. And he's in
Speaker 3: a playing time thing with Jose Hazu Sanchez, which I
Speaker 3: don't understand. I think if he gets in, it's like
Speaker 3: I said, it's like a taoscar thing. I think it's
Speaker 3: twenty five homers. You're gonna get a handful of stolen
Speaker 3: bases and pitting where he's hitting in the lineup, he's
Speaker 3: going to be a massive, massive steal. And Riley Green
Speaker 3: the thing I've always kind of banked on with him.
Speaker 3: He's just a great contact hitter. The power has not
Speaker 3: necessarily worked out what I'm optimistic about, even though I
Speaker 3: think they raise the walls while bringing them in. He
Speaker 3: he's been seen as a better power projected player than
Speaker 3: Spencer Torkolsen. He had two fifty three this past year.
Speaker 3: Strikeout numbers were a little bit concerning. I think he's
Speaker 3: going to be hitting in the middle of that lineup.
Speaker 3: I think he's got that fifteen plus home run power,
Speaker 3: and I think he's going to be a little bit
Speaker 3: more aggressive on the base paths. And if the strikeout
Speaker 3: numbers come down with the ballpark dimension change, Riley Green
Speaker 3: set for a good prime and he kind of just
Speaker 3: stands out to me. These are all three targets of mine,
Speaker 3: though I will say Lars, He's probably on eighty percent
Speaker 3: of my teams right now Brian day La Cruz probably
Speaker 3: around fifty that I've done, and when I can get
Speaker 3: Riley Green, probably like twenty five percent. I target these
Speaker 3: guys in all my drafts, so this is definitely, you know,
Speaker 3: put your money where your mouth is.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the pictures here, and one
Speaker 1: of Welsh's favorite pitcher is actually headlining the list for
Speaker 1: aerial cones, so that I know you are, well, it's
Speaker 1: nice to hear someone else talk about ye, it's good.
Speaker 1: So Jeffrey Springs on this list, David Peterson, who's on
Speaker 1: my list who I keep talking about all the time, Ariel,
Speaker 1: which is the Mets pitching staff, has a lot of
Speaker 1: age in it. This guy performed very well last year.
Speaker 1: They could use more left handed starting pitching in that
Speaker 1: rotation as well. They're starting him down the minor leagues
Speaker 1: most likely, and I think that's a great opportunity. Another
Speaker 1: free pitcher that you could just kind of stick on
Speaker 1: your roster and you know you're gonna probably get like
Speaker 1: twenty starts out of him at the end of the day.
Speaker 1: And then you have George Kirby, another one of our
Speaker 1: favorites here. So let's talk about Springs Peterson and Kirby.
Speaker 1: Why do you think they're gonna break out this year?
Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I disagree that David Peterson is
Speaker 2: going to start in the minor leagues because Jose Quintana
Speaker 2: is going to be out for two or three months
Speaker 2: with the stress fracture. So he's probably gonna make the
Speaker 2: fifth to fifth spot in the Mets rotation whatever projections
Speaker 2: are out there right now for eighty innings, said ninety
Speaker 2: innings up that by about thirty innings or so at least,
Speaker 2: I think the Mets are gonna get a guy who
Speaker 2: is fantastic slider. I mean he had I don't know,
Speaker 2: maybe the second highest whiff rate on his slider last
Speaker 2: year of all pitchers in the majors something like that.
Speaker 4: Uh, So he was fantastic.
Speaker 2: A lot of strikeouts, I mean he struck out one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty six batters only one hundred and six innings.
Speaker 2: We're talking the easy hundred, easy hundred and fifty strikeouts
Speaker 2: here from this guy. Era under control. Now the walks
Speaker 2: a little bit of a problem. Uh he has not
Speaker 2: been great with that. So I'm hoping that that, uh
Speaker 2: after a nice offseason, gets gets fixed and If you
Speaker 2: have that, we're talking a very, very exciting pitcher and
Speaker 2: you're getting him free right now.
Speaker 4: Uh, So, you know, fantastic.
Speaker 2: Uh As far as the other is Jeffrey Sping's enormous
Speaker 2: strikeout rate. He's r last year two four to six
Speaker 2: and one hundred and thirty five innings. The one oh
Speaker 2: seven whip, you know, the one oh seven whip does
Speaker 2: to your fantasy uh, your fantasy numbers. It takes him
Speaker 2: way way down that strikeout rate twenty seven percent last year.
Speaker 2: It was thirty five percent the year before. He's a
Speaker 2: converted reliever, of course. Uhjeffrey Springs really prime. I love
Speaker 2: it with those relievers turnstart. Remember Chris Sale used to
Speaker 2: be a reliever, Adam wayIn Wright used to be a reliever.
Speaker 2: These guys are fantastic so skill skills.
Speaker 1: J Santana used to be a reliever.
Speaker 4: George Kirby.
Speaker 2: I know he's it's only second year, but I think
Speaker 2: the innings jump is gonna be great. He's gonna get
Speaker 2: to like one hundred and sixty innings almost And I
Speaker 2: can't believe when I saw it.
Speaker 4: The ATC risk metrics.
Speaker 2: Have him as the least riskiest pitcher in all of baseball.
Speaker 2: So I take his numbers and I just add two
Speaker 2: dollars two rounds to buying him. His control is impeccable
Speaker 2: four percent walk rates. This guy is not getting not
Speaker 2: having guys on base like Bartolo Cologne walks almost and
Speaker 2: the strikeats are right there. So what are you missing
Speaker 2: nothing with this guy? Safe safe pick upside of he's
Speaker 2: a top ten pitcher upside and by the way, he
Speaker 2: was unlucky last year he had three thirty one babbit
Speaker 2: Whatever Whippy had is gonna go down. He's fantastic by
Speaker 2: very very big breakout guy.
Speaker 3: Ario, Can I ask, because I would have I would
Speaker 3: have definitely did for me, just real quick. What encompasses
Speaker 3: the risk like the risk management to him? How does
Speaker 3: how does he become the least risky picture as a
Speaker 3: second year guy?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, without getting too much into it, ATC looks
Speaker 2: at what's called parameter risk, which is the certainty that
Speaker 2: we think the true talent is of the true talent,
Speaker 2: and that goes from surveying a lot of different projections.
Speaker 2: Projections are very tight on him. Everyone is projecting the
Speaker 2: same way manual guys, automated guys. Everyone is really has
Speaker 2: the same grasp on him, and that in studying how
Speaker 2: this is all, when I take a look at the
Speaker 2: major league player pool, and you see whenever projections are
Speaker 2: very tight, you see that it actually adds value to
Speaker 2: a player, Like there's a legitimate two three dollars bump
Speaker 2: just from being projected in a very tight circle. So
Speaker 2: that's why I say he's least risky, not that he's
Speaker 2: any more health risk than anybody else. He's the same
Speaker 2: health risk as anybody else, although I think it's lower
Speaker 2: of course of his very nice delivery.
Speaker 4: But in terms of true talent projection.
Speaker 2: I think we're more sure of what he is, and
Speaker 2: if anything, there's a negative skew, like there's one projection
Speaker 2: system that's very low on him and thinks he's terrible.
Speaker 2: I know from experience you can just ignore that. You
Speaker 2: go by the mass of the crowd. So whatever projection,
Speaker 2: we think, it's higher than you think. I think he's
Speaker 2: a fantastic yet.
Speaker 1: Very cool all right, So Springs, Peterson and Kirby, let's
Speaker 1: go to your guys. You've got Nick Lodola, Welsh Reeddebtmur's
Speaker 1: one of my favorite guys, and another player we have
Speaker 1: yet to talk about. So let's talk about these three.
Speaker 1: I'm going to tease it, set him up, knock him down.
Speaker 3: Yeah, So Nicolodolo, we talked a decent amount about I've
Speaker 3: been a Nicolodolo over Hunter Green guy, even though I
Speaker 3: love the big strikeout numbers on Hunter Green and the
Speaker 3: change to the slider. That everyone made a big deal
Speaker 3: about the slider with Hunter Green, but we should be
Speaker 3: making a big deal about the curveball with Nicolodola, which
Speaker 3: had a forty six percent wifth rate last year, which
Speaker 3: is just so absurd. He threw it thirty percent of
Speaker 3: the time, which was essentially the exact same amount of
Speaker 3: time he was throwing his fastball. Fastball definitely got hit hard,
Speaker 3: which is going to be interesting how he runs that
Speaker 3: mix this year, maybe throwing a little bit more of
Speaker 3: a sinker which didn't have a big wiffright, But the
Speaker 3: change up in curveball. He gets the stuff done with
Speaker 3: a curveball. His teammates love him. Funny anecdotal thing. I
Speaker 3: don't know if I've said this on here, but Joey
Speaker 3: Vado was actually asked by someone I know about, Hey,
Speaker 3: who would you take in fantasy Hunter Green? And the Ladolo,
Speaker 3: and he thought about it and he went Lodolo. He
Speaker 3: would go with Lodolo. The pitch mix I think really
Speaker 3: stands out for Nick Lodolo. So I'm a little bit
Speaker 3: worried about the team context and his ability to break
Speaker 3: out just because of like wins and run support and
Speaker 3: stuff like that. But I think he's one of the
Speaker 3: best pitchers and the pitch mix is phenomenal to keep going.
Speaker 1: Read.
Speaker 3: Debt Mers is kind of in this same boat. He
Speaker 3: kind of changes arsenal from being like a three pitch
Speaker 3: pitcher to a four pitch pitcher this past year. He's
Speaker 3: definitely built on command. He doesn't get hit hard outside
Speaker 3: of the fastball, which I think is really intriguing. And
Speaker 3: he's one of the few pitches I've ever seen that
Speaker 3: have like the five pitches and they're all over a
Speaker 3: twenty percent whiff rate. I mean, it's really mixed around.
Speaker 3: It might not be really one great pitch as far
Speaker 3: as he just keeps batters on their toes because he's
Speaker 3: gonna throw a variety of pitches. So I think Debtms
Speaker 3: isn't a really good spot because actually also had a
Speaker 3: pretty good spring. I think he's in a really good
Speaker 3: spot to take that advancement. Also, the tutelage of Otani,
Speaker 3: I think will be really interesting to see where he
Speaker 3: goes as he upticked that change up a little bit.
Speaker 3: So I like him. And the last one that you mentioned,
Speaker 3: you know, it actually came from just watching him in spring,
Speaker 3: and I think I forgot how much I liked him
Speaker 3: in the minor leagues. It's Hayden Wiznoski, Hayden Hayden Wiznuski.
Speaker 3: With the Cubs, it's vying for a spot in the rotation.
Speaker 3: I don't know if he's going to get it, but
Speaker 3: I was just really impressed with how he was attacking
Speaker 3: the zone early on here. His fastball is pretty pretty solid.
Speaker 3: His slider was actually his number one pitch though this
Speaker 3: past year through it thirty two percent of the time
Speaker 3: with a thirty three percent with rate with big spin
Speaker 3: numbers as well. Throws a four seam, throws a sinker,
Speaker 3: cutters in there in a change of This is another
Speaker 3: big pitch, mixed guy with kind of an inter interesting
Speaker 3: like alteration of how he throws. And he also just
Speaker 3: attacks the zone twenty five percent k rate this past
Speaker 3: year with a five percent walk rate feels little George
Speaker 3: Kirby ish and if there's a little bit of a
Speaker 3: bump up in the K numbers, I think if Hayden
Speaker 3: was Nuski gets an opportunity in the rotation, he might
Speaker 3: be able to be one of the better Cubs pitchers,
Speaker 3: especially now that Justin Steele is dealing with some injury stuff.
Speaker 3: I think was Nowski could be really sneaky.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he is going at three point fifty overall. Redebt
Speaker 1: Merse by the way, in terms of ADP, also very
Speaker 1: very cheap. He is in the two fifty ish range
Speaker 1: right now that I'm looking over fantasybros dot com. So
Speaker 1: you're getting a pretty good discount on a lot of
Speaker 1: these players, and you take advantage of Actually he's at
Speaker 1: two fourteen. He's gone up in the last few days.
Speaker 1: So Debt Merz is starting to rise because a lot
Speaker 1: of people are talking about him, but with Douski and
Speaker 1: other players kind of basically free right now. All right, well,
Speaker 1: let's wrap things up. Let's close it out with the closer.
Speaker 1: Who's the breakout closer for twenty twenty three on your roster?
Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite guy to pick on, and he doesn't
Speaker 3: even have the gig yet, and I think it's dangerous.
Speaker 3: It's Andrius Munos that is the guy that I want
Speaker 3: to get as much investment as I possibly can with
Speaker 3: just a huge, huge fastball, which is the thing that
Speaker 3: just kind of gets me going. He's healthy. Paul Seawald
Speaker 3: than him, both kind of vying for not being healthy.
Speaker 3: Thirteen point two to nine k per nine, just barely
Speaker 3: to a walk per nine, which I think is phenomenal
Speaker 3: for a really big fastball guy like him. He actually
Speaker 3: had a better x FIP than his Era two four
Speaker 3: nine era with a two x FIP. And I look
Speaker 3: at Andris Munos as the quintessidial classic closer. There are
Speaker 3: so many guys you could depend on at the top
Speaker 3: end that are not going to break out that middle
Speaker 3: in I think there's a lot of guys that are
Speaker 3: in rotational issues, Johan Duran and him. I feel like
Speaker 3: you got to take a side. You got to take
Speaker 3: a side on which is the guy you want to
Speaker 3: break out. I think Paul Seawald is a solid closer,
Speaker 3: but I think they could do and they will do,
Speaker 3: is they'll put him in more of a leverage situation
Speaker 3: as the veteran guy and let Andres Munio's blow by
Speaker 3: people because I think that is what he ultimately does best.
Speaker 3: Andres Munos, I want as much investment as possible with
Speaker 3: a one hundred average fastball. One hundred and two was
Speaker 3: his average fastball, and he throws a power slider that
Speaker 3: is almost at ninety seven miles an hour. So I'll
Speaker 3: take that.
Speaker 1: Every day, you and me both. I'm aggressive on him
Speaker 1: as well. He's gonna be part of this video. I've
Speaker 1: got the mustafs of twenty twenty three. Stay tuned for
Speaker 1: that on our YouTube channel. Subscribe again, Fantasy pros MLB
Speaker 1: erro Kellen. Who's the closer for the all breakout team
Speaker 1: for you this year? Yeah?
Speaker 2: And by the way, Muno's is on my labor team
Speaker 2: that I picked this weekend along with Duran and I
Speaker 2: got ened with Diaz.
Speaker 4: I got a lot of saves on my team there.
Speaker 4: You're doing good. Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2: The only thing is Muno's I don't know if he's
Speaker 2: gonna be a leverage guy. She'll get plenty of saves,
Speaker 2: but is he gonna be full closed or full leverage
Speaker 2: with I don't know. But this guy that I have
Speaker 2: I think is the man Alex Lang of the Tigers.
Speaker 2: Basically by the full the rest of the Tigers actually stick.
Speaker 2: The bullpen is horrendous, and that's good because it means
Speaker 2: that he's more guaranteed the job. He had a thirty
Speaker 2: one percent strike out rate last year. His only problem
Speaker 2: is walks, but hey, that didn't prevent Gregory Soto last
Speaker 2: year from getting the closer's job and running with it
Speaker 2: for a couple of straight years. I think Tiger's not
Speaker 2: gonna be a fantastic team, but I think he's being
Speaker 2: able to pull out twenty twenty five saves, and you're
Speaker 2: getting him in a much cheaper cost than anybody else
Speaker 2: who's guaranteed, even less than munyos of Duran or any
Speaker 2: of those guys.
Speaker 4: Towards the end, we're talking pick two thirty or so.
Speaker 2: And you know, close saves and closers are hard to
Speaker 2: get this year because there's just a lot of certain
Speaker 2: there's only a little bit of certainty at the top,
Speaker 2: and a lot of shots and a lot of crappy pitchers.
Speaker 2: Lang has the skills to be a closer, and uh,
Speaker 2: he's gonna be the saves guy. So I think it's
Speaker 2: a safer pick, very late, safe, cheap. That sounds like
Speaker 2: good for an actuary like me, So there you go.
Speaker 1: Sounds good, all right. Let's recap Ariel's roster at catcher,
Speaker 1: Logan Ohappy, the Slapio Hopi, Josh Nayler first, Nick Gordon
Speaker 1: at second, Alec Bowm at third, Than Tovar at short, McCarthy,
Speaker 1: Friedel Siri in the outfield, Jeffrey Springs, David Peterson, George Kirby,
Speaker 1: and Alex Lang to round out the rotation of the
Speaker 1: bullpen on welshah Side Stevenson the catcher, Jose Miranda at first,
Speaker 1: cj Abrams a second, Jordan Walker at third, Wander Franco
Speaker 1: at short, Lars Newt bar and Brian Delacruz along with
Speaker 1: Riley Green in the outfield. Then Nic Lodolo, Debt Mers,
Speaker 1: Waznowski and Andre's munio is rounding it out. So those
Speaker 1: are names to pay close attention on and get ready
Speaker 1: to draft them, maybe a little aggressively as well, because
Speaker 1: some of that we're coming at quiet discount. Go get
Speaker 1: your guys. Go get some of these guys because the
Speaker 1: ATC projections are high on them. Go follow our friend
Speaker 1: as well. Ariel Cohen over on the Twitter machine at
Speaker 1: ATC and why and also be weary of him in
Speaker 1: a fast pitch softball game. The guy's got an absolute cannon,
Speaker 1: very intimidating. He knocks guys down to the grounds. He's
Speaker 1: like the It's like the Don Drysdale of softball pitchers.
Speaker 1: You gotta see the videos of him on Twitter and
Speaker 1: on Facebook. Also, don't forget to Draft Assistant with SYNC.
Speaker 1: It's an incredible set of tools that plug right into
Speaker 1: your drafts wherever you're drafting, help you make all the
Speaker 1: right decisions, and you can get it at fantasypros dot
Speaker 1: com slash Premium. So go MVP, go Hall Fame today,
Speaker 1: join our discord, subscribe to our YouTube channel. Because Leading
Speaker 1: Office coming around in just a few weeks. It's an
Speaker 1: amazing time to be alive. This week, we're also gonna
Speaker 1: have the All Sleeper team with Steve Gardner, so stick
Speaker 1: around for that as well. I want to thank the
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Speaker 1: Fantasy Prose. That'll do it for us, but the story
Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Ario Con. In the Welsh,
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,