1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:16,919 Speaker 1: This year's breakouts. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in 2 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,080 Speaker 1: everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 3 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: It is me Joey b joe Phisipia, and today we 4 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: continue our week of all teams and today it's all 5 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: about the breakouts. That's right. The guys are going to 6 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: take their game from here and bring it all the 7 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: way up to Hia and to help me break these 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: players down. Of course, is the Welsh Chris Welsh and 9 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: one of the best baseball writers on the planet. He 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: is the host of the Beat the Shift podcast. He 11 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: also is pretty much like Fantasy Writer of the Year 12 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: every single year. Not to mention, he does a little 13 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: production system called ATC. It's arial and Ariel, did you 14 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: project yourself being on this show here today? 15 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 2: Absolutely? I projected it would be a fantastic show. And 16 00:00:58,120 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: we know that's gonna happen, right. 17 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 1: Get it, it's already in the bank. Well so really 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: it's all on you if it fails. 19 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 3: Well usually yeah, when it fails, it's like, hey, well 20 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 3: what the hell are you doing? We've done that recently, Ariol. 21 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 3: Are you in a who wants to be a millionaire? Background? 22 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 3: What is your background you got going on? 23 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 4: Here is a background? Yeah? Oh yeah, yeah yeah, who 24 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 4: wants to be a millionaire? Of course, that's okay. 25 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 2: We just phil Ben of course that that was a 26 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 2: classic that started the whole revolution of game shows on TV, 27 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 2: that you didn't have them for decades, then all of 28 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: a sudden that started. 29 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: I love it. I love when it popped on today. 30 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: And this is why you watch on the YouTube channel 31 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: because you can see Errow Cohen there is Uh right 32 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: there ready for Reis to ask him a question. So 33 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: does that mean I have to talk like this the 34 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: rest of the show. 35 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,759 Speaker 3: These questions one thing to just throw out real quick. 36 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 3: I don't we want to get into this quickly, but 37 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 3: just want to give a shout out. ATC was voted 38 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 3: as and there's always this debate because obviously ATC is 39 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: an aggregate projection system, but there's also a lot of 40 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 3: heart and soul put into it by ariol So there's 41 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 3: this debate of like Ariols projections that are an aggregate 42 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 3: versus the bad X, which was the highest individual projection 43 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 3: system put up, but Ariols ATC was rated as the 44 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 3: most accurate projection system. And I believe this has gone 45 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 3: on for a couple of years here, and you've got 46 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 3: some new stuff. I think you've aligned with a few 47 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 3: new people. So I mean, ATC, I'm a big averages 48 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 3: type of person. I'm not funny enough. I'm not like 49 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 3: the most hardcore projections type of person, but I like 50 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 3: to take a look at the highs and lows of 51 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,480 Speaker 3: things and kind of find the middle ground. And ATC 52 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 3: does a good job about that. So I don't know 53 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 3: if you have any thoughts about, just real quick, the 54 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 3: accuracy that ATC has had over the last couple of years, 55 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 3: and you know, just how the whole thing has been 56 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 3: spitting out and what you're looking at this year. 57 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is the fourth year in a 58 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 2: row that Fantasy pros has dubbed me as the most 59 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: accurate projection. So you know, we'll take that, and you know, 60 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 2: it shows that we're getting into more places people are 61 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 2: trusting it. It's a household name. I mean, you know, 62 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: Derek Cardy actually uses ATC playing time within his own projection. 63 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 2: He tries that now, so very excited, and uh hey, 64 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 2: it's let's make it five in a row, right there. 65 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: You go, just keep on going. The dynasty continues real quick, 66 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: I want to ask the projection master, what do you 67 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: think about stolen bases this year? I know you and 68 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: I were kind of talking about, you know, the pitch clock, 69 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,040 Speaker 1: the ability to only throw over being limited by the pictures. 70 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: Now what do you think kind of impact? Whyse you're 71 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 1: going to see in stonn bases? Are we going to 72 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: see a major uptick here potentially in twenty twenty three. 73 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, well the uptick was already starting this past year 74 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 2: where we had that really low two years ago and 75 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 2: it already started going. 76 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, you're going to see more of that. 77 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: The question though, is it going to be at the 78 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 2: top of the curve it's going to be you know, 79 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 2: the jorgemiteos and the Monday is going to sixty or 80 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 2: is it just going to be a bunch of ten 81 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: Stone based guys going to fifteen twenty. 82 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 4: That remains to be seen. 83 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:50,119 Speaker 2: I think Stone bases is always a manager's call. It's opportunity. 84 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: Are you stealing when you have the chance? So it 85 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 2: remains to be seen. But yes, it's gonna be up 86 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 2: all around. You're gonna see I'm not gonna say gigantic, 87 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 2: but you're gonna see a very significant change, and it 88 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 2: has to do mostly with a pickoff rule that pretty 89 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 2: much it's with one pickloff and you're done. 90 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 3: Well, we should have done this yesterday when Collett was 91 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 3: on here, But Collet put out this really great tweet 92 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: after the first week that was breaking down percentages and 93 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 3: what it was was, and you probably saw it. It 94 00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 3: was what spring training stolen based numbers do compared to 95 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 3: in season, and it was usually like a twenty percent 96 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,840 Speaker 3: decrease from what you see in spring training. Except the 97 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 3: first week the numbers were the highest stolen base attempts 98 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 3: in spring training since twenty twelve. I believe it was 99 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 3: ten to eleven years, so that inherently was showing that 100 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 3: we were going to see a massive increase over the 101 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 3: last couple though I do feel like the last week 102 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 3: and a half or so stolen bases have kind of 103 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: tapered down. I don't believe there's a single player with 104 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,480 Speaker 3: over two stolen bases in spring training, so I've got 105 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 3: that down a little bit. At the end of the day, 106 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 3: the math that Collett put out was like a twenty 107 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 3: five percent increase. Do you believe we will see a 108 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 3: twenty to twenty five percent stolen based increase across the 109 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 3: whole league. You said, you don't know if it'll be 110 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 3: the top guys of the middle guys. But do you 111 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 3: think we'll see like an overall twenty to twenty five 112 00:04:58,680 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 3: percent stolen base increase. 113 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,400 Speaker 2: No, I think that's way too high number. I think 114 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 2: we're gonna get closer to ten, fifteen, maybe twenty. That's 115 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,719 Speaker 2: the kapper. You know, I don't really trust the spring 116 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: training stats. So first of all, this first week they're 117 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 2: trying every which way to do everything new. 118 00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 4: I'm not gonna I'm not gonna rely on it. 119 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: And by the way, because of the WBC, you have 120 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 2: a lot of major league players not in spring training, 121 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 2: so the spring training stats in general are gonna be 122 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 2: pretty murky. I would not put any any emphasis on that. 123 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 2: But yeah, the answer the question again, no, that that 124 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 2: seems too high. I'd say closer to fifteen, maybe twenty. 125 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the breakouts here. Let's start 126 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: with Ketcher. The boys here put together, they're all breakout team. 127 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: The guys are gonna take their game to the next level. 128 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 1: So Ariel Coon a Ketcher who's taking the field for you? 129 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 2: All right, we're gonna go with logan o'happy. Yes, it's 130 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 2: pronounced like sloppy o'happy. 131 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 4: Uh. 132 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 2: He the breakout here, I always you always want to 133 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 2: have a reason for the breakout, and this reason is 134 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 2: playing time. Last year, Sean Murphy just completely came out 135 00:05:59,040 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 2: to the field and burst onto value because he got 136 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 2: so many more at bats than what everyone predicted. And 137 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,680 Speaker 2: I think that's the case with o'hapi here. He's got 138 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 2: a nice base of power. His average two forty one 139 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 2: I'm projecting, which is actually pretty good for what would 140 00:06:13,560 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 2: be a second catcher. The ATC volatility metrics show low violativity, 141 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,719 Speaker 2: like we have a very good idea of what he 142 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 2: is and who's in front of him. Max Stassy. Stassy 143 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 2: had a one eighty average last year. I can't see 144 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 2: him being a threat. I think you're going to see 145 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 2: by the end of the year Ohapi being the main 146 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 2: catcher and whatever people have projected for him, he's going 147 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 2: to pass it. I can see him getting the line 148 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 2: and share so ohappy because of the at bats is 149 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 2: going to be a good fantasy buye. 150 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: Well, at your bachelor party, didn't you have a sloppyo hoppy? 151 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 1: I want to. 152 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,599 Speaker 3: Say, we don't talk about that. We don't talk about 153 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: what happened at the bachelor parties. Sloppy o'happies are not shoe, 154 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 3: thank you very much. 155 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting because this is the same player. A 156 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: few weeks back, we had Frank Stanfel on the show 157 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 1: and he was very high on AHAPI as well. So 158 00:06:57,760 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: when smart people are all talking about the same players 159 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: every much, you take notice, Welsh, who is your catcher 160 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: for the all breakout team with twenty three? 161 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 3: I would have picked Logan o'happy Sloppy o'happy had I've 162 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 3: been given the opportunity. 163 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 1: I'm never gonna not think of him with that name. 164 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 3: Now, thanks very now, thanks you ruined it. The guy 165 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 3: I picked was Tyler Stevenson with the Cincinnati Reds. It's 166 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 3: actually a very similar situation you want to talk about, 167 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 3: like you're looking at playing time. Give me a catcher 168 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 3: that comes at a cheap cost. I think I said 169 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 3: this yesterday. I don't want to catcher inside my top 170 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 3: one hundred. No thanks, it's immediate bust territory for me, 171 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 3: even if they produce well, I don't want to get 172 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 3: that cost because I think there's a lot of good 173 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 3: value later. But if you're talking about breakouts, I don't 174 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 3: really think William Contreras fits the breakout. Who's someone I 175 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,119 Speaker 3: would want Sean Murphy, but Tyler Stevenson specifically does. Tyler 176 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: Stevenson suffered from some injuries last year, was not able 177 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 3: to get a full season, and they're also talking about 178 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 3: him playing a significant amount of games at first base. 179 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 3: You've got injuries with Joey Vado, so he's going to 180 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 3: be playing kind of all across the board. Fun fact 181 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 3: as well, did you know he is projected with the 182 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 3: third best batting average in ATC projections. Give me a 183 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 3: high batting aver on a catcher who makes really good 184 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 3: contact skill sixteen homers on ATC projections that I think 185 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 3: he can get twenty plus. He's going to hit closer 186 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 3: to a middle of the lineup for the Reds, and 187 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 3: his cost is outside the top ten catchers. As a 188 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 3: matter of fact, one sixty eight on the aggregate ADP 189 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 3: on Fantasy pros. That's a pretty good volume, which is 190 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 3: boosted up because of NFBC. NFBC screwing that up a 191 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 3: little bit. It's probably closer to two hundred. So give 192 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 3: me a closer that's going to hit inside the top 193 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 3: five of a lineup with playing time move different positions, 194 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 3: has twenty plus power and top five best batting average 195 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 3: projections on ATC Huh, let's go. 196 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 4: I like it. 197 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: I don't know about you, guys, but I mean, certainly 198 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: for the listeners here, I'm sure they would love to 199 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: have the well scherero Cone inside the draft with them. 200 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: They love to have all the experts with them, and 201 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 1: we could do that for you at Fantasy Pros. So 202 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: the Draft Assistant is the ultimate tool for dominating your 203 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball draft. And what it does is basically synks 204 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: up to your draft and you could have the cheat sheets, 205 00:08:56,760 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: which we've talked about before in the show. You could 206 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: take your favorite experts put those in to the Draft 207 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: Assistant with sink. But what's so great about the Draft Assistant. 208 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: If you've seen our shows here at Fantasy Pros, when 209 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: we do our mock draft shows, you'll see all the 210 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 1: times where it gives you recommendations on players. It tells 211 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: you who is picking after you and already has certain 212 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: positions filled. And that's huge because that's the difference of 213 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: you making the right pick at the right time and 214 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: not and making those right picks are everything when you're 215 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: going into the draft. And if you want to go 216 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: ahead and get a piece of this, you get that 217 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 1: MVP or Hall of Fame subscriber situation over a Fantasy 218 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: Pros because when you get that, then you have all 219 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: the tools at your disposal. But I gotta tell you, 220 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: if you go to Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium today, 221 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 1: you sign up, you go MVP, or you go Hall 222 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: of Fame, you get the whole kit and kaboodle. I'm 223 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: telling you right now, that is the key to going 224 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: in there and crushing all your drafts, especially if you 225 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 1: have multiple drafts, because that software our team is so good. 226 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: It puts together incredible expert advice. It gives you the 227 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: right pick at the right time with the analysis after 228 00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: the drafts. Well Welsh always does that. Also on all 229 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: the shows, they always plug in their teams afterwards. But 230 00:09:57,880 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 1: you don't want to do that afterwards. You want to 231 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 1: be there live with the tools. You can only get 232 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 1: that again Fantasy Baseball Draft Wizard app. So go crush 233 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 1: the competition. Download it and check out Fantasybros dot Com 234 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: Slash Premium Go Premium today and don't forget you can 235 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,679 Speaker 1: manage all your lineups from Fantasy Pros. It's right. You 236 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: got ten leagues. You could set all your lines in 237 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,719 Speaker 1: one place. AyL Cone is like twenty leagues. I'm sure 238 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: that's a very useful thing for him. He should be 239 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 1: using the tools if he's not, especially since he's like 240 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: number one guy at Fantasy Pros every year. So here 241 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 1: we go, arial Cohen, Let's go for the first basement 242 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 1: for the breakout twenty twenty three team. Who is it? 243 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 4: All right? 244 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 2: We'll go with Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor, and 245 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 2: there's plenty of room for him to play either first 246 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 2: or even at DH. 247 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:36,839 Speaker 4: Last year he was. 248 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 2: Amazing twenty homers, seventy nine RBIs even stole six bases. 249 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: We know stolen base are going up, so it could 250 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: even be eight ten, you never know. Decent average. I'm 251 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 2: projecting him for two to sixty five batting average. The 252 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 2: thing about picking some of these guys is that players 253 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 2: who bat in the middle lineup, and the Guardians are 254 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 2: gonna be a decent lineup. They've got Rosario in there, Menez, 255 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 2: Josh Spell. Now you're gonna have a lot of runs 256 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,120 Speaker 2: in RBIs. That's forty percent of your rodo statistics or 257 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 2: runs at RBIs and he's got the power in dustin 258 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 2: speed and some average. So this is the guy with 259 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 2: with that, and I think he's relatively safe. Look at 260 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 2: a strikeout rate last year, sixteen percent strikeout rate, and 261 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 2: that's been a long track. I mean, he's been under 262 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:23,200 Speaker 2: twenty every single year of his career pretty much. So 263 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,679 Speaker 2: we're talking about a safe guy who's gonna get a 264 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 2: lot of stats, and nobody's paying for him. He's going 265 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 2: like the sixteenth seventeenth round of drafts all day. 266 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: Gil. It's amazing because we do so many drafts here 267 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: in the MOCKX and this is a player that keeps 268 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: falling and I keep stashing him as like an extra 269 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:43,719 Speaker 1: utility guy. I mean, I just I don't get it, Aro. 270 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: I'm with you one hundred percent on Nailor, and I've 271 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: been picking him up, and every time I do, the 272 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: draft Wizard gives me that little a little clap, the 273 00:11:49,040 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 1: little golf clop, which is, yeah, you know I need that. 274 00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: I need my self. Esteems very low Welsh. Let's go 275 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: to your first baseman, who is and this is a 276 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: player too that we talked about a little yesterday. 277 00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 3: Yeah. I try to talk about him pretty much wherever 278 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: I can, and I actually slid him over to this 279 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 3: spot because most places he is going to qualify at 280 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 3: third basis Jose Miranda, who is one of my favorite 281 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 3: late guys. You know, I use the term. I believe 282 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:11,319 Speaker 3: it was last year where ty France was kind of 283 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,080 Speaker 3: a glue piece. There's these players that maybe they're not 284 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 3: exceptional in a lot of different areas, but I feel 285 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 3: like everything that they do really work for the game, 286 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 3: and I view Jose Miranda as a glue piece, but 287 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 3: I also think there's just a ton of upside. One 288 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 3: of my favorite things I've cided at gajillion times over, 289 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 3: but if you're new listening, is his approach last year 290 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 3: in two strike counts was better than most people in 291 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 3: the league. It was two of the three two strike 292 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 3: counts you can have, he hit over three hundred. The 293 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 3: other was two forty, and that was better than Mooki 294 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 3: Betts kind of across the board. It's a kind of 295 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 3: ironically weird stat but it just showed the plate presence, 296 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 3: which I love about him because he's a sub twenty 297 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 3: percent k guy, which I think is huge for his 298 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,959 Speaker 3: game as he continues to grow. The Baseball Savant sheet 299 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily jump out to you, but he had a 300 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 3: forty two percent hard hit rate. I think the power 301 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 3: is going to jump up. Max Ev was right around 302 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 3: one ten this past year. XBA was a little bit 303 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,199 Speaker 3: lower than his actual batting average, but it was still 304 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,480 Speaker 3: in line. And this is a great lineup for him 305 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 3: to put up run and RBI numbers. Plus he's going 306 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 3: to qualify at third base. I think Cozy Miranda has 307 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 3: a real, real chance to be twenty plus homers with 308 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 3: eighty eighty on the run in RBI and hit two 309 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:18,439 Speaker 3: seventy to two eighty. He's not going to steal a 310 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 3: whole lot of bases, but he's going to provide you 311 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 3: pretty high end on the other four categories, homers being 312 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: a little bit of question that. I think he's ready 313 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 3: for a breakout regardless. And it's first and third that 314 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 3: he qualifies at, So that's going to be my pick here. 315 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 1: Love Miranda, another guy. I think it's just super undervalued 316 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: and not getting enough press. Right now, let's go to 317 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: the second base situation here. Back to you, Ariel, who's 318 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 1: the second basement. That's a potential breakout in twenty twenty three. 319 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 2: Right back to your twins there, Nick Gordon. Nick Gordon 320 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,199 Speaker 2: the brother of formerly Baijor League baseball player De Gordon. 321 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 2: This guy has a lot of potential, and by the way, 322 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 2: he also qualifies in the outfield, So if you have 323 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 2: your team, you can move him and use him. As 324 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 2: you speak, power speed combo. We're talking a guy who 325 00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 2: can put up ten to ten maybe even twenty twenty. 326 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,320 Speaker 2: I can see that happening even this year. And the 327 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,080 Speaker 2: batting average won't be thrilling, but it's not gonna be terrible. 328 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 2: He's got a twenty three percent strike out rate, so 329 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: not a leader or anything but major league average. The 330 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 2: question is playing time. Will he play enough? Well, he 331 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 2: played four undred at bats last year, and let's see 332 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 2: who's on the team. Well, they shipped Luis Arayaz out 333 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: to clear room of second base for him. That's good. 334 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 2: Happened in the outfield, Well you got Byron Buckson. Sure 335 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 2: Byron Buckston never gets hurt, so I'm sure. 336 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: He right earmuffs Welsh ear muffs. 337 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 2: Sorry about that, but it is true. Sorry, I just 338 00:14:35,640 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 2: go by history. So we're talking about a high skilled player. 339 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 2: I like to bet on high skilled players. You know 340 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 2: who this reminds me of, or at least not exactly 341 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 2: in profile, but in terms of the skills d J 342 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 2: lamy who in terms of value. I always said, hey, 343 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,560 Speaker 2: or the Yank's gonna play him. Probably looks like we'll 344 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 2: play him four days, three days. But you know what, 345 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 2: high skilled players get to play, and he did. Nick 346 00:14:56,840 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 2: Gordon is a high skilled player. I don't think that 347 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 2: he's gonna be stopped so so he's gonna benefit from that, 348 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 2: and he could really help your team down the stretch 349 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: if you need to fill those extra homers and stolen 350 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: bases at about pick three hundred, yeah. 351 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: I mean gosh. In terms of the ADP too, he's 352 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: talking about free players. He had four hundred at bats 353 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: last year. As you were saying, is this another player 354 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: to arrow that you know because of the athleticism, could 355 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: be another guy where those six stolen bases and one 356 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six games could double or maybe even triple. 357 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 2: Totally, Absolutely, this is exactly the kind of player that's 358 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 2: going to look to make his mark and use his 359 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: fantasy use his real life baseball value wherever he can. 360 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 2: And he has the ability to steal the rules are 361 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 2: had that way. That's how he's going to force his 362 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 2: way to even more value and more playing time for 363 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 2: the Twins. 364 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: Composite ADP on Fantasy Program four fifty Nick Gordon, So free, 365 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,760 Speaker 1: baby free, Let's go all right, Welsh back to you 366 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: for the second base. 367 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 3: Who you have actually mine is another one of those guys, 368 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 3: just like Ariol said, we're going to talk about him 369 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: in this position, but he qualifies with some others and 370 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 3: he's actually going to play a different position, but at C. J. 371 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 3: Abrams who should qualify at second and in shortstop for everybody, 372 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 3: But I'm going to line him in here at second 373 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 3: base because this actually might even be a better spot 374 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 3: that you would want him in. I have loved from 375 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 3: day one the sprint speed in the miners, even before 376 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 3: really paying attention to Corbyn Carroll's fast speed numbers. There 377 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 3: was this Abrams type speed years years ago. It was 378 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 3: the Buston speed and then it become kind of Abrams 379 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 3: to me, and he flies around ninety first percentile as 380 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 3: far as sprint speed goes, already has a stolen base 381 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 3: in spring. He's had a pretty good spring as well, 382 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 3: hitting two seventy eight five hits and eighteen at bats, 383 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 3: and he looks like he's going to have the gig 384 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 3: the entire time. He has put up little Kotel Marteus 385 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 3: in him where he has like high hard hit numbers, 386 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,560 Speaker 3: but his average evs sit pretty low, which I just 387 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 3: think shows like when he starts to tap in, it's 388 00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 3: going to get there. The stolen base numbers, I think 389 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 3: is where every projection is just off on him right now, 390 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 3: similar to Corbyn Carroll, I think they're wildly off atc 391 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: is low on the homers at seven, but has seventeen 392 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 3: stolen bases, which essentially is the highest, not counting like zips, 393 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 3: which I think a really good starting point at one 394 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 3: thirty six. He makes good contact, he doesn't strike out 395 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 3: a bunch sixteen percent strikeout rate in the majors last year. 396 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 3: He's just got to walk more. Here's a little upside 397 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 3: is in that lineup right now, they have Corey Dickerson 398 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 3: hitting two according to roster resource. If he continues to 399 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 3: hit well, CJ. Abrams will lead off or hit two 400 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,880 Speaker 3: for this team, and he will run on a team. 401 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 3: They need to manufacture these runs. So what I like 402 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 3: about him is I like the idea that we could 403 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 3: get ten homers, ten to twelve somewhere in there, and 404 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 3: I think twenty five with a little bit more upside 405 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 3: on the stolen basis because they will manufacture and this 406 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 3: is how he's going to get hit. Job done on 407 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 3: the base pass. When he made his pro debut, I 408 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 3: was at it out here the Diamondbacks immediately was trying 409 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 3: to steal. It's what he wants to do. At the 410 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 3: end of the day, he just has to hit. Looks 411 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 3: like he's starting to get into that space having a 412 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,199 Speaker 3: good spring. I think CJ. Abrams with the stolen base upside, 413 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 3: is one of those players that's ready to break out. 414 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 1: And too, I keep talking about Abrams be gooes. I 415 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: think the leash is going to be long Welsh where 416 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 1: you know he's going to get a chance to fail, 417 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:01,399 Speaker 1: and I think think that's important because they have no 418 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 1: other options there. They have to have him succeed. Players 419 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 1: don't come back exactly like you know, it's his job. 420 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: So that is always encouraging too. If you make an 421 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: investment in a player and there's somebody else that could 422 00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 1: push for playing time, if that player struggles, they're going 423 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 1: to pass him over Allah Jared Kellnik the last couple years, 424 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: right with Seattle Mariners, players like that Abrams is the guy. 425 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: They've got to get a return from him to justify 426 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: the move that they made trading Won Soto. So that 427 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: to me is a good enough reason to be patient 428 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: with Abrams do. But everything well shd in terms of 429 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: upside is there. Let's go to third base here, let's 430 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,640 Speaker 1: flip around Welsh. You give me your third base breakout 431 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty three. And shame on Jason Kleette for 432 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: the shade yesterday that he threw on this player. 433 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 3: We're just not having it. We're not here, We're not 434 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 3: having it. Jason Kollett's gone trying to ruin, just trying 435 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 3: to say something in the point. 436 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: And if you missed yesterday's show, go back and listen. 437 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: It's a great show. And he brought up a lot 438 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: of great points on a lot of players that we 439 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: are very into, which is good because it it does 440 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: remind us, Hey, you know there's a downside here too, 441 00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: which is great. But will she and I are going 442 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 1: to try to be practically cautiously optimistic here with the 443 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: Jordan Walker. 444 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 3: We need that, we need a video. We need the 445 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 3: Fantasy Pros video team to do that video and put 446 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 3: Debbie downer. Every time he would talk, we'd be like, 447 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 3: here's your bus Spencer strainer and then just closed on 448 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,119 Speaker 3: his face. He was killing us. But Jordan Walker, I 449 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 3: tried to not have like rookies on this list because 450 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 3: you know, are they even in a space of breaking out. 451 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 3: Sometimes you think about breakouts as like having opportunity, not 452 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 3: necessarily going like Jared Kelln, it could be one of 453 00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 3: those players you could throw in here. But Jordan Walker, 454 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 3: with the breakout really exists is him being able to 455 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 3: go full throttle. He was Julio Rodriguez and he's still. 456 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 3: It's amazing, by the way it is March seventh, as 457 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 3: recording this, he is what Julio Rodriguez was in early 458 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 3: February of last year, and that the just has not 459 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 3: caught up, the drafting and the excitement has not caught 460 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 3: up because we haven't got the official announcement of his 461 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 3: playing time. And if he does, we're gonna go because 462 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 3: this is a big power speed combo player who's having 463 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 3: a fantastic spring. He's crushing the ball and he is 464 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 3: aligning himself at every opportunity to get the job. And 465 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 3: the thing that stood out to me from day one 466 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,239 Speaker 3: was when they moved Tyler O'Neal off. As soon as 467 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 3: they moved Tyler O'Neal off, I thought that is just 468 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 3: a close, close sign that they want to have that 469 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 3: spot open right field is where Jordan Walker they're the 470 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 3: most comfortable with and they wanted to find their flexibility 471 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 3: and they want them up rather sooner than later. And 472 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 3: I think what the breakout is, He's the breakout in 473 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 3: your fantasy value where you're gonna get nineteen homers, twenty 474 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 3: two stolen bases in twenty twenty two, had a great 475 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 3: fall league, hit three hundred, makes good contact, doesn't strike 476 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 3: out a bunch, he can walk, and he can run. 477 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,160 Speaker 3: For a six foot five, two hundred and twenty five 478 00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,760 Speaker 3: pound plus outfielder, it's crazy stuff and it is just 479 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 3: I know it's reminiscent of Julio and I know it's 480 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 3: dangerous to talk about, but Jordan Walker is primed to 481 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 3: have that breakout and he's not coming at the cost 482 00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,880 Speaker 3: at least yet. It's gonna break everybody's heart. Like I'm 483 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 3: I'm Corbyn, Carroll Corbick, Like everyone's gonna love for Corby. 484 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,920 Speaker 1: Carroll's gonna break my home. Got the Jews behind your 485 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: head there. But you know what, I am not concerned 486 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 1: the Corby Carroll that I watched last year. I mean, 487 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: I see a major league player. I see a guy 488 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: who's ready to go. Walker has a little bit more. 489 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: I think my point is, well, because you know, you 490 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:13,880 Speaker 1: don't want to have a triple af batch, you don't 491 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: have that window. I think the thing is, like you said, 492 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: it's the value you're getting at Walker and with Walker 493 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,640 Speaker 1: right now, even if you get three to four months 494 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: of productivity, you'll get all six because he does spend 495 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: some time in the minor leagues or maybe struggles, he 496 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: gets sent down, comes back. There's all these variables, but 497 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: the cost. As long as you have a patient approach 498 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: to this, he could certainly pay off and still be 499 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: a good investment. 500 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 3: And that's exactly it. One fifty plus ADP still and 501 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,639 Speaker 3: I would even admit, you know, to Corbyn Carroll. NFBC 502 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 3: just tweeted out that he had a fifty four ADP 503 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 3: and like a couple drafts that he had just done 504 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 3: a fifty. There's a lot of room for disappointment. It's 505 00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 3: hard to have the disappointment, but if you get you 506 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 3: might get a twenty twenty season out of Jordan Walker 507 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,120 Speaker 3: when he hasn't been announced for the position and he's 508 00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 3: going to have a big breakout and he really has 509 00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 3: the shot to be a rookie breakout that a lot 510 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 3: of people they were expecting, but he wasn't priced in 511 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 3: that he actually was expecting because if he was, he'd 512 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 3: be a top one hundred guy. 513 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,159 Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell 514 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: you about fan Tracks. 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That's fantracks dot com 540 00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: slash Fantasy Pros for your chance to win that official 541 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 1: signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey. Fan Tracks the home of 542 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: fantasy sports and now back to the action. Ariel your 543 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 1: third basement is a fascinating choice because this is a 544 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 1: player that I think disappointing a lot of people last year, 545 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: and then there were some questions about, you know, is 546 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 1: this player soft and all these other things. So let's 547 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: talk about the third base selection for you in the breakout. 548 00:23:58,920 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: What do you see from him? 549 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 2: I have Alec Bohm, or call him Alec Baum, who's 550 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 2: gonna hit a bunch of homers this year. I don't 551 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: know why people were disappointed last year. He turned in 552 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 2: a sixteen dollars performance in a fifteen team league. It's 553 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 2: seventy nine runs and seventy two RBIs and hit to eighty. 554 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 2: I had him on a few teams, and I was 555 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 2: not disappointed in the least. I think, actually, uh, listen, 556 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 2: ATC projects him to be fantastic this year, and I 557 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 2: think he's even better than I think he can hit 558 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,879 Speaker 2: over twenty homers. I was watching him in spring training. 559 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 2: He's hitting bombs, and he's not just clearing the fences. 560 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,400 Speaker 2: He's going dead center, he's going right over. I think 561 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 2: he could also put in a few steals. He's stolen 562 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: a couple pass a couple of bases in the past 563 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 2: only to last year, but I think that can go 564 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,919 Speaker 2: up to five to six. I think that the power 565 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 2: metrics were unlucky last year, so that's gonna really, that's 566 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 2: gonna really materialize this year. And again he's a very low, 567 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 2: very high sorry, very high contact, low strikeout rate type player, 568 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: So there is very little downside with him. You're getting 569 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 2: a guy at a big discount up with upside and 570 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,880 Speaker 2: no downside. Really, the only downside is he's a terrible fielder. 571 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,679 Speaker 2: I mean, I was watching him the other game and 572 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 2: there was a pop up, you know, just outside the 573 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 2: foul line, and he drops it, and I'm thinking to myself, would. 574 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 4: I have made that catch? 575 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 2: And I was trying to be honest with myself, and 576 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 2: I really think I would have made that catch. It 577 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 2: was really he and he didn't. So I'm not saying 578 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 2: that I belong in the major leagues, but I'm saying 579 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:28,199 Speaker 2: that his defense is pretty shoddy. But that is not 580 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 2: so the only thing I like to see himprove is 581 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 2: is walk rate only five percent last year, but it 582 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 2: has been up to almost nine percent in the past. 583 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,919 Speaker 2: So if that all comes together, we're talking about a 584 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 2: really major good bye here. This is a this is 585 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 2: a prime breakout in my opinion. 586 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 3: He also was like my number one weirdest interview I 587 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 3: ever did. By the way, Yeah, weirdest interview I've ever done. 588 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:52,120 Speaker 3: But I actually was thinking about picking him on this list. 589 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 1: Here, Arian, I want to know something, what about the 590 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: splits on this player too? Because against Righty's last year 591 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 1: six twenty nine ops, but ten of his thirteen home 592 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: runs against our handed pitching. Against left he is a 593 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,440 Speaker 1: nine to thirty five OPS. Also, the batting average very different, 594 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,959 Speaker 1: three fifty two against left handed pitching, two fifty three 595 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: against right handed. I mean two fifty three is okay, 596 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 1: but it's more of the ops that I'm curious about. 597 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: Does that split scary you, especially in those head to 598 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,440 Speaker 1: head formats potentially, because you know, not being able to 599 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: hit right handed pitching at a standard clip there, that 600 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: can be a big red flag sometimes on a player. 601 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, with that in the defense, you know, yeah, it 602 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 2: does beg Hey, are they going to get a filling guy? 603 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 2: But looking at their roster, they have not. I think 604 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 2: they want to let him work it out. I think 605 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 2: that they have quite a lot of pieces around it. 606 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 2: They got Tree Turner in. You know, Harper is gonna 607 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 2: be back in the middle of the year. I think 608 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 2: they're gonna go with what they have. I mean, you're 609 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 2: right about weird. I remember, I can't remember when it was, 610 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 2: but they caught him on a hot mic saying I 611 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 2: can't stand this team or something like that. 612 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 1: And now E didn't like Philadelphia, which is not a 613 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 1: good thing to say to Philadelphia. Yeah, I lived there 614 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: for six years. 615 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,919 Speaker 2: No, of course they fired Girardi, and I think that 616 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 2: helped they sort of made Yeah. 617 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 4: So he's thick a well, he's a little wild, but. 618 00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 2: No, I think I think the value is going to 619 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 2: be there, and he just locked in this spring, just 620 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:10,960 Speaker 2: three homers already dead center homers, and there's a lot 621 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 2: more to come. 622 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,760 Speaker 1: I think, all right, let's get the next position here. 623 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: Let's talk about shortstop. Welch, let's go back to you. 624 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 1: Who is your shortstop that could break out in twenty 625 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 1: twenty three. 626 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 3: This is probably one of the biggest names. I think 627 00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,560 Speaker 3: this might be the biggest name from name value that's 628 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,880 Speaker 3: on my list. But he didn't break out, and it's 629 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 3: wander Franco Wanafroanco. The first month of the season last year, 630 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 3: something I really try to keep coming back to. It 631 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 3: obviously could be an anomaly, but in March, in April 632 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 3: of twenty twenty two, hit three thirteen with four homers. 633 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,440 Speaker 3: He had three stolen bases, was a little bit more aggressive. 634 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 3: He doesn't usually strike out as much as well, and 635 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 3: he was striking out a little bit more because it 636 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 3: looked like he was swinging through the fences then got hurt, 637 00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,679 Speaker 3: and that kind of just carried through the entirety of 638 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 3: the year, and I think that's going to go by 639 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,840 Speaker 3: the wayside long term with wander Franco. I think we're 640 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 3: going to get back. I mean, obviously, the contact skills 641 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 3: I think speak for themselves, as far as he doesn't 642 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 3: strike out under ten percent strikeout rate linelast year almost 643 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,520 Speaker 3: a higher walk percentage. He hit two seventy eight even 644 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 3: in a struggle time. If you were to project his 645 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 3: numbers out, you would essentially be like twelve to fifteen 646 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,120 Speaker 3: let's just call it twelve fifteen on the year, which 647 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 3: would be pretty solid. But I think he's ready to 648 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,160 Speaker 3: take major steps as more of an aggressive power hitter 649 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,679 Speaker 3: that's going to hit in the middle of the lineup, 650 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 3: and I think there's a decent shot we could have 651 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 3: a twenty fifteen season coming up for Wanderfranco. In spring, 652 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 3: He's having a solid spring. He's hitting five hundred, he's 653 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 3: got a homer, he's got a stolen base, he's four 654 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 3: for eight. You like to see that spring numbers don't 655 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 3: necessarily mean anything, but you want to see them walk 656 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 3: in and wander. Franco has He has an aggressive hitters approach, 657 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: not just like I'm trying to make contact and swing 658 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 3: across your body and just hit line drives, like he 659 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 3: wants to destroy baseballs. And I think this year he's 660 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 3: going to have a better opportunity to destroy baseballs now 661 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:50,960 Speaker 3: that he is healthier, and I think he can repeat 662 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 3: more of that March April, and his ADP is going 663 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 3: to look a lot better. Where I've been focusing the 664 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 3: last couple episodes of those back end shortstops. I don't 665 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 3: really like, you know, Collett didn't like the N three Swans, 666 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:02,480 Speaker 3: and I didn't really either. Tim Anderson has a ton 667 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 3: of injury issues, Carlos Korea all that Wanda Franco is 668 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 3: in that area. He kind of ends that tier of 669 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 3: shortstops that I would really want, even though it's like, oh, 670 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 3: it's fifteen deep, it's not really, it's not really. Wanna 671 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 3: Franco is one of those I would want to make 672 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 3: a bet on this year, though. 673 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,280 Speaker 1: At twenty two years old, I think it's crazy for 674 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 1: anybody to even think about the notion of giving up 675 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: on Wander Franco right now. I mean, I'd be all 676 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: over him. This is the last time you're getting a discount, too, 677 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: so I'd be buying him in Dynasty. I'll be buying 678 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 1: him keeper leagues, anywhere I could get him. All right, 679 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 1: let's move on to shortstop for you, Ariel Cohen, who 680 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: is grabbing the bat taking a glove for breakouts twenty 681 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: twenty three. 682 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 2: I usually don't pick players who haven't had much major 683 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: league experience, and I usually don't pick Rockies because they 684 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 2: mishandle rookies and prospects. But Ezekiel Tovar really looks primed. 685 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 2: Brendan Rodgers pretty much hurt for the year. They had 686 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 2: to even import Mike Lustakas in the infield. So Ezekiel 687 00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,400 Speaker 2: Tovar is going to be the starting shortstop. He's gonna 688 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 2: get all the playing time in the world. And projections 689 00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 2: are not great on CARDI will tell you this all 690 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 2: the time. Usually doesn't excite projections, but ATC is very excited, 691 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 2: almost a fifteen to fifteen projection with a two seventy 692 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 2: average strike out raid under twenty percent. Very very excited 693 00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,280 Speaker 2: about him. So we're talking about power, speed, and average blend. 694 00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 2: And here's a little secret about Colorado Rockies for this year. 695 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 2: They're actually better than you even think. First of all, 696 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 2: the Rockies manufacture quite a lot of runs. They're the 697 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 2: number one most highest run scoring team in all of 698 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 2: Major League Baseball last year, so if you want runs 699 00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 2: at RBIs, that's the place to be. They also don't 700 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,160 Speaker 2: have a great pitching staff, so they're gonna try and 701 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,640 Speaker 2: manufacture some runs and steals could be up. But how 702 00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,360 Speaker 2: about the power? Everyone says, well, yep, they play in cores. 703 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 2: Well that's the reason to buy him. But well, they 704 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 2: play in a very tough division. Actually, with the balance schedule, 705 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,400 Speaker 2: they're no longer going ten times to the Dodger Stadium. 706 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 2: They're not going to the Giant Stadium. They're not playing 707 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 2: the Padres all those times. They're playing teams in the 708 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 2: Central and the Al Central. They have a better schedule 709 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 2: in better ballparks. The average ballpark factor for a Rockies 710 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 2: hitter has gone up, and it was high to begin with, 711 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,880 Speaker 2: so secret secret Rockies hitters are even better than you 712 00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 2: think this year, and Tovar is primed to break out 713 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,480 Speaker 2: and he's still going at a very manageable cost in 714 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,520 Speaker 2: drafts this year. So I like the guy. Get him 715 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 2: soon though, because since Rogers has been hurt, his ADPA 716 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 2: is rising. 717 00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 4: You got to buy now. 718 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: I hope you're not in a lot of leagues with 719 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:28,560 Speaker 1: Standful because this is another one of Frank's guys too, 720 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,320 Speaker 1: so I hope you guys are separated out. 721 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 4: I'll be drafting it with him in two weeks and tout. 722 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: Wars, Oh no, I can't wait to see that battle 723 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: to the death. All right, let's talk about the outfielders 724 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 1: here on your list. Let's run through the three of 725 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:46,040 Speaker 1: them here. Jake McCarthy is the first one aerial. This 726 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 1: is player. Ironically yesterday was on Collet's bust list. I 727 00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 1: can't wait now, So take us through McCarthy first, and 728 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,960 Speaker 1: then your other two outfielders on this list. Let's do 729 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 1: them as a as a cluster together. 730 00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, McCarthy, this is a gut. He's gonna steal thirty 731 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 2: forty base this year. He had twenty three stone bases 732 00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,120 Speaker 2: in three hundred and twenty one at bats and that's 733 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 2: just gonna continue this year. Batting average fantastic two eighty 734 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 2: three last year. So he's getting on base. He's gonna 735 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 2: bat in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup, third, second, 736 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 2: maybe right right where Corman Carroll is. Christian Walker is 737 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 2: gonna have a lot of chances to score runs, a 738 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 2: lot of RBIs. I see categories all across the board. 739 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 2: Probably he might even get to ten homers. So he's 740 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 2: not a zero in that stat So we're talking about 741 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 2: you know, this is like Starling Marte almost and you're 742 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 2: getting him not You don't have to pay all that 743 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 2: much for him. I bought him yesterday in a couple 744 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:42,280 Speaker 2: of days ago in the mixed labor auction for like 745 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,640 Speaker 2: fourteen bucks, So he's going for a nice discount. You're 746 00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,040 Speaker 2: gonna get a lot of stats out of him. Fantastic 747 00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 2: by for McCarthy. 748 00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,640 Speaker 1: All right, who are the other two outfitters you have 749 00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 1: on your list as well? 750 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 4: Yeah? I have a TJ. Fredell and or I think 751 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:59,719 Speaker 4: Fredel TJ. Friedel and Jose Siri TJ. Friedel. 752 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 2: I also think is very very interesting. This is a 753 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 2: guy who is hitting first in the lineup in the Reds. 754 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,520 Speaker 2: They're not a fantastic team, but that ballpark is amazing. 755 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,240 Speaker 2: So you got a power speed combo. He's batting first. 756 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,959 Speaker 2: He hit five home runs in September this year. I 757 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,000 Speaker 2: love to look at guys who in September really went off. 758 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,680 Speaker 2: That tells me something about the next year. So that's him. 759 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,719 Speaker 2: He's gonna get the playing time. No one's kicking him 760 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 2: out that spot. And now, Jose Siri, you know Tampa 761 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 2: Bay Rays do a lot of platuning, but he might 762 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 2: get some extra playing time. And this guy has fifteen 763 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,960 Speaker 2: twenty ability. So if you're looking for a little spark 764 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,920 Speaker 2: of his power speed, blend Layton draft. He's going like 765 00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,200 Speaker 2: around three thirty or so. Jose Siri, give you a 766 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 2: little bit of extra accounting stats when you need it. 767 00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:45,719 Speaker 1: Now, if you're a fan of the show here, you 768 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: know that Lars new Bar is obviously going to be 769 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 1: on Welsh's breakout list for the outfield. But there's another 770 00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: two names on here too, Brian De la Cruz, Riley 771 00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: Green Green. I can't wait to hear you talk about. 772 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,160 Speaker 1: So let's talk about these three outfielders that you have 773 00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 1: and why Welsh you think these three are going to 774 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:00,320 Speaker 1: break out in twenty three. 775 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, we'll just get Lars out of the way. 776 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 3: I've done it enough. But really fantastic interview. I want 777 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,480 Speaker 3: to point out Inenosaurus did on rates and barrels with 778 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 3: Lars where he talked about a lot of the vest 779 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 3: training he did and barreling like that was the big 780 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,160 Speaker 3: focus because the year before he had worked so much 781 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,399 Speaker 3: on his hard hit numbers and we saw that come through. 782 00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,919 Speaker 3: By the way, he had a forty six percent hard 783 00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 3: hit rate, which was fantastic. He barreled the ball a 784 00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,760 Speaker 3: really good amount. He had a MAXIV of one thirteen 785 00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,640 Speaker 3: and an average of ninety one point seven on his 786 00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,919 Speaker 3: average exit velocity, and that was the big focus going 787 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 3: into last year was just hitting the ball hard. Now, 788 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,399 Speaker 3: the focus he did in some of his drive line 789 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,200 Speaker 3: adjustments was taking that hard hit and working on making 790 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,719 Speaker 3: sure the contact the barreling of it. And I just 791 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:53,120 Speaker 3: think that he has taken to every step with huge strides. 792 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 3: His XBA was like twenty plus points higher than his 793 00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 3: actual batting average would have been closer to around a 794 00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,279 Speaker 3: two to fifty hitter hit fourteen home er in one 795 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 3: hundred and eight games ATC's got him at twenty homers, 796 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,120 Speaker 3: the highest of any projection system. It's actually in line 797 00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,719 Speaker 3: with ZIPS, which we all can laugh about. Is like 798 00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 3: big crazy numbers twenty with six dolen bases in a 799 00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:13,799 Speaker 3: two forty three batting average. And what I would like 800 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 3: to point out about that is that is in one 801 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,120 Speaker 3: hundred and twenty nine games, and that is kind of 802 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 3: on an average baseline. I don't think it's out of 803 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,400 Speaker 3: the question that Large Nubar hits twenty five homers and 804 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 3: steals ten bases this year with a decent average. The 805 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 3: other two guys, Brian de la Cruz I've called Brian 806 00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,320 Speaker 3: de la Cruz Taoscar Hernandez Light or you know, maybe 807 00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,319 Speaker 3: more of a Walmart version of Taoscar Hernandez. It's going 808 00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 3: to be about playing time ultimately with him because he 809 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,759 Speaker 3: has huge hard hit numbers, huge exit velocity numbers. X 810 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,080 Speaker 3: wOBA was in the nineteth percentile ninety six percent XBA 811 00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,280 Speaker 3: from this past year. His XBA was actually two eighty 812 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 3: seven when he hit two fifty two. And he's in 813 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 3: a playing time thing with Jose Hazu Sanchez, which I 814 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,279 Speaker 3: don't understand. I think if he gets in, it's like 815 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,000 Speaker 3: I said, it's like a taoscar thing. I think it's 816 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 3: twenty five homers. You're gonna get a handful of stolen 817 00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,719 Speaker 3: bases and pitting where he's hitting in the lineup, he's 818 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,399 Speaker 3: going to be a massive, massive steal. And Riley Green 819 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 3: the thing I've always kind of banked on with him. 820 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,920 Speaker 3: He's just a great contact hitter. The power has not 821 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 3: necessarily worked out what I'm optimistic about, even though I 822 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 3: think they raise the walls while bringing them in. He 823 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,080 Speaker 3: he's been seen as a better power projected player than 824 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 3: Spencer Torkolsen. He had two fifty three this past year. 825 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,080 Speaker 3: Strikeout numbers were a little bit concerning. I think he's 826 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:26,720 Speaker 3: going to be hitting in the middle of that lineup. 827 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,080 Speaker 3: I think he's got that fifteen plus home run power, 828 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:31,239 Speaker 3: and I think he's going to be a little bit 829 00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,520 Speaker 3: more aggressive on the base paths. And if the strikeout 830 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,479 Speaker 3: numbers come down with the ballpark dimension change, Riley Green 831 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 3: set for a good prime and he kind of just 832 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 3: stands out to me. These are all three targets of mine, 833 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 3: though I will say Lars, He's probably on eighty percent 834 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 3: of my teams right now Brian day La Cruz probably 835 00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,719 Speaker 3: around fifty that I've done, and when I can get 836 00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 3: Riley Green, probably like twenty five percent. I target these 837 00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 3: guys in all my drafts, so this is definitely, you know, 838 00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:56,719 Speaker 3: put your money where your mouth is. 839 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,799 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the pictures here, and one 840 00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,000 Speaker 1: of Welsh's favorite pitcher is actually headlining the list for 841 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,440 Speaker 1: aerial cones, so that I know you are, well, it's 842 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,719 Speaker 1: nice to hear someone else talk about ye, it's good. 843 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,560 Speaker 1: So Jeffrey Springs on this list, David Peterson, who's on 844 00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 1: my list who I keep talking about all the time, Ariel, 845 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 1: which is the Mets pitching staff, has a lot of 846 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,480 Speaker 1: age in it. This guy performed very well last year. 847 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,759 Speaker 1: They could use more left handed starting pitching in that 848 00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,040 Speaker 1: rotation as well. They're starting him down the minor leagues 849 00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,439 Speaker 1: most likely, and I think that's a great opportunity. Another 850 00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,600 Speaker 1: free pitcher that you could just kind of stick on 851 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,040 Speaker 1: your roster and you know you're gonna probably get like 852 00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 1: twenty starts out of him at the end of the day. 853 00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:34,560 Speaker 1: And then you have George Kirby, another one of our 854 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,480 Speaker 1: favorites here. So let's talk about Springs Peterson and Kirby. 855 00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 1: Why do you think they're gonna break out this year? 856 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,320 Speaker 2: Well, first of all, I disagree that David Peterson is 857 00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,800 Speaker 2: going to start in the minor leagues because Jose Quintana 858 00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 2: is going to be out for two or three months 859 00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,080 Speaker 2: with the stress fracture. So he's probably gonna make the 860 00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 2: fifth to fifth spot in the Mets rotation whatever projections 861 00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,080 Speaker 2: are out there right now for eighty innings, said ninety 862 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,439 Speaker 2: innings up that by about thirty innings or so at least, 863 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 2: I think the Mets are gonna get a guy who 864 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,920 Speaker 2: is fantastic slider. I mean he had I don't know, 865 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 2: maybe the second highest whiff rate on his slider last 866 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,919 Speaker 2: year of all pitchers in the majors something like that. 867 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:11,879 Speaker 4: Uh, So he was fantastic. 868 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:13,960 Speaker 2: A lot of strikeouts, I mean he struck out one 869 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty six batters only one hundred and six innings. 870 00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 2: We're talking the easy hundred, easy hundred and fifty strikeouts 871 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,200 Speaker 2: here from this guy. Era under control. Now the walks 872 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,200 Speaker 2: a little bit of a problem. Uh he has not 873 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,520 Speaker 2: been great with that. So I'm hoping that that, uh 874 00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,640 Speaker 2: after a nice offseason, gets gets fixed and If you 875 00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,360 Speaker 2: have that, we're talking a very, very exciting pitcher and 876 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:34,920 Speaker 2: you're getting him free right now. 877 00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 4: Uh, So, you know, fantastic. 878 00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,640 Speaker 2: Uh As far as the other is Jeffrey Sping's enormous 879 00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,680 Speaker 2: strikeout rate. He's r last year two four to six 880 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,759 Speaker 2: and one hundred and thirty five innings. The one oh 881 00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,719 Speaker 2: seven whip, you know, the one oh seven whip does 882 00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 2: to your fantasy uh, your fantasy numbers. It takes him 883 00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:55,200 Speaker 2: way way down that strikeout rate twenty seven percent last year. 884 00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,920 Speaker 2: It was thirty five percent the year before. He's a 885 00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:01,920 Speaker 2: converted reliever, of course. Uhjeffrey Springs really prime. I love 886 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 2: it with those relievers turnstart. Remember Chris Sale used to 887 00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,200 Speaker 2: be a reliever, Adam wayIn Wright used to be a reliever. 888 00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,919 Speaker 2: These guys are fantastic so skill skills. 889 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:11,840 Speaker 1: J Santana used to be a reliever. 890 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:14,280 Speaker 4: George Kirby. 891 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,520 Speaker 2: I know he's it's only second year, but I think 892 00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,879 Speaker 2: the innings jump is gonna be great. He's gonna get 893 00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:22,600 Speaker 2: to like one hundred and sixty innings almost And I 894 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:23,480 Speaker 2: can't believe when I saw it. 895 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,400 Speaker 4: The ATC risk metrics. 896 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 2: Have him as the least riskiest pitcher in all of baseball. 897 00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:31,320 Speaker 2: So I take his numbers and I just add two 898 00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,279 Speaker 2: dollars two rounds to buying him. His control is impeccable 899 00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,160 Speaker 2: four percent walk rates. This guy is not getting not 900 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 2: having guys on base like Bartolo Cologne walks almost and 901 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,360 Speaker 2: the strikeats are right there. So what are you missing 902 00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 2: nothing with this guy? Safe safe pick upside of he's 903 00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 2: a top ten pitcher upside and by the way, he 904 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,920 Speaker 2: was unlucky last year he had three thirty one babbit 905 00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,600 Speaker 2: Whatever Whippy had is gonna go down. He's fantastic by 906 00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,000 Speaker 2: very very big breakout guy. 907 00:39:58,040 --> 00:39:59,439 Speaker 3: Ario, Can I ask, because I would have I would 908 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,879 Speaker 3: have definitely did for me, just real quick. What encompasses 909 00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,759 Speaker 3: the risk like the risk management to him? How does 910 00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,360 Speaker 3: how does he become the least risky picture as a 911 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:08,080 Speaker 3: second year guy? 912 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, so, without getting too much into it, ATC looks 913 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,400 Speaker 2: at what's called parameter risk, which is the certainty that 914 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,160 Speaker 2: we think the true talent is of the true talent, 915 00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,799 Speaker 2: and that goes from surveying a lot of different projections. 916 00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,000 Speaker 2: Projections are very tight on him. Everyone is projecting the 917 00:40:23,120 --> 00:40:27,440 Speaker 2: same way manual guys, automated guys. Everyone is really has 918 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,440 Speaker 2: the same grasp on him, and that in studying how 919 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:35,799 Speaker 2: this is all, when I take a look at the 920 00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,400 Speaker 2: major league player pool, and you see whenever projections are 921 00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 2: very tight, you see that it actually adds value to 922 00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,920 Speaker 2: a player, Like there's a legitimate two three dollars bump 923 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:49,040 Speaker 2: just from being projected in a very tight circle. So 924 00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,759 Speaker 2: that's why I say he's least risky, not that he's 925 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,239 Speaker 2: any more health risk than anybody else. He's the same 926 00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:56,239 Speaker 2: health risk as anybody else, although I think it's lower 927 00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,000 Speaker 2: of course of his very nice delivery. 928 00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:01,160 Speaker 4: But in terms of true talent projection. 929 00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,160 Speaker 2: I think we're more sure of what he is, and 930 00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,880 Speaker 2: if anything, there's a negative skew, like there's one projection 931 00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,240 Speaker 2: system that's very low on him and thinks he's terrible. 932 00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,000 Speaker 2: I know from experience you can just ignore that. You 933 00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 2: go by the mass of the crowd. So whatever projection, 934 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,799 Speaker 2: we think, it's higher than you think. I think he's 935 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:19,080 Speaker 2: a fantastic yet. 936 00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,399 Speaker 1: Very cool all right, So Springs, Peterson and Kirby, let's 937 00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,680 Speaker 1: go to your guys. You've got Nick Lodola, Welsh Reeddebtmur's 938 00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 1: one of my favorite guys, and another player we have 939 00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:29,920 Speaker 1: yet to talk about. So let's talk about these three. 940 00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,239 Speaker 1: I'm going to tease it, set him up, knock him down. 941 00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, So Nicolodolo, we talked a decent amount about I've 942 00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 3: been a Nicolodolo over Hunter Green guy, even though I 943 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,040 Speaker 3: love the big strikeout numbers on Hunter Green and the 944 00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,839 Speaker 3: change to the slider. That everyone made a big deal 945 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,560 Speaker 3: about the slider with Hunter Green, but we should be 946 00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,879 Speaker 3: making a big deal about the curveball with Nicolodola, which 947 00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,279 Speaker 3: had a forty six percent wifth rate last year, which 948 00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,279 Speaker 3: is just so absurd. He threw it thirty percent of 949 00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,040 Speaker 3: the time, which was essentially the exact same amount of 950 00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:58,399 Speaker 3: time he was throwing his fastball. Fastball definitely got hit hard, 951 00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,239 Speaker 3: which is going to be interesting how he runs that 952 00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,600 Speaker 3: mix this year, maybe throwing a little bit more of 953 00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:04,719 Speaker 3: a sinker which didn't have a big wiffright, But the 954 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:06,640 Speaker 3: change up in curveball. He gets the stuff done with 955 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:09,239 Speaker 3: a curveball. His teammates love him. Funny anecdotal thing. I 956 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 3: don't know if I've said this on here, but Joey 957 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:13,920 Speaker 3: Vado was actually asked by someone I know about, Hey, 958 00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 3: who would you take in fantasy Hunter Green? And the Ladolo, 959 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,440 Speaker 3: and he thought about it and he went Lodolo. He 960 00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,359 Speaker 3: would go with Lodolo. The pitch mix I think really 961 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,920 Speaker 3: stands out for Nick Lodolo. So I'm a little bit 962 00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,359 Speaker 3: worried about the team context and his ability to break 963 00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,080 Speaker 3: out just because of like wins and run support and 964 00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:29,600 Speaker 3: stuff like that. But I think he's one of the 965 00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,600 Speaker 3: best pitchers and the pitch mix is phenomenal to keep going. 966 00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:32,799 Speaker 1: Read. 967 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:34,759 Speaker 3: Debt Mers is kind of in this same boat. He 968 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,040 Speaker 3: kind of changes arsenal from being like a three pitch 969 00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,520 Speaker 3: pitcher to a four pitch pitcher this past year. He's 970 00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,160 Speaker 3: definitely built on command. He doesn't get hit hard outside 971 00:42:43,160 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 3: of the fastball, which I think is really intriguing. And 972 00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,160 Speaker 3: he's one of the few pitches I've ever seen that 973 00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,000 Speaker 3: have like the five pitches and they're all over a 974 00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,120 Speaker 3: twenty percent whiff rate. I mean, it's really mixed around. 975 00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,560 Speaker 3: It might not be really one great pitch as far 976 00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,640 Speaker 3: as he just keeps batters on their toes because he's 977 00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,560 Speaker 3: gonna throw a variety of pitches. So I think Debtms 978 00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,400 Speaker 3: isn't a really good spot because actually also had a 979 00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,520 Speaker 3: pretty good spring. I think he's in a really good 980 00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:08,800 Speaker 3: spot to take that advancement. Also, the tutelage of Otani, 981 00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:10,480 Speaker 3: I think will be really interesting to see where he 982 00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,799 Speaker 3: goes as he upticked that change up a little bit. 983 00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,480 Speaker 3: So I like him. And the last one that you mentioned, 984 00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:17,840 Speaker 3: you know, it actually came from just watching him in spring, 985 00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:19,319 Speaker 3: and I think I forgot how much I liked him 986 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:23,520 Speaker 3: in the minor leagues. It's Hayden Wiznoski, Hayden Hayden Wiznuski. 987 00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:27,600 Speaker 3: With the Cubs, it's vying for a spot in the rotation. 988 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:29,200 Speaker 3: I don't know if he's going to get it, but 989 00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,520 Speaker 3: I was just really impressed with how he was attacking 990 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:36,400 Speaker 3: the zone early on here. His fastball is pretty pretty solid. 991 00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:39,040 Speaker 3: His slider was actually his number one pitch though this 992 00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:41,759 Speaker 3: past year through it thirty two percent of the time 993 00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,439 Speaker 3: with a thirty three percent with rate with big spin 994 00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,360 Speaker 3: numbers as well. Throws a four seam, throws a sinker, 995 00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:49,439 Speaker 3: cutters in there in a change of This is another 996 00:43:49,480 --> 00:43:52,680 Speaker 3: big pitch, mixed guy with kind of an inter interesting 997 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,000 Speaker 3: like alteration of how he throws. And he also just 998 00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:57,560 Speaker 3: attacks the zone twenty five percent k rate this past 999 00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,720 Speaker 3: year with a five percent walk rate feels little George 1000 00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:02,480 Speaker 3: Kirby ish and if there's a little bit of a 1001 00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,360 Speaker 3: bump up in the K numbers, I think if Hayden 1002 00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:07,440 Speaker 3: was Nuski gets an opportunity in the rotation, he might 1003 00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,680 Speaker 3: be able to be one of the better Cubs pitchers, 1004 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,080 Speaker 3: especially now that Justin Steele is dealing with some injury stuff. 1005 00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:14,720 Speaker 3: I think was Nowski could be really sneaky. 1006 00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, he is going at three point fifty overall. Redebt 1007 00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,960 Speaker 1: Merse by the way, in terms of ADP, also very 1008 00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:24,960 Speaker 1: very cheap. He is in the two fifty ish range 1009 00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,120 Speaker 1: right now that I'm looking over fantasybros dot com. So 1010 00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,560 Speaker 1: you're getting a pretty good discount on a lot of 1011 00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,520 Speaker 1: these players, and you take advantage of Actually he's at 1012 00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:33,919 Speaker 1: two fourteen. He's gone up in the last few days. 1013 00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:35,520 Speaker 1: So Debt Merz is starting to rise because a lot 1014 00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,480 Speaker 1: of people are talking about him, but with Douski and 1015 00:44:37,520 --> 00:44:40,439 Speaker 1: other players kind of basically free right now. All right, well, 1016 00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,680 Speaker 1: let's wrap things up. Let's close it out with the closer. 1017 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:46,200 Speaker 1: Who's the breakout closer for twenty twenty three on your roster? 1018 00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite guy to pick on, and he doesn't 1019 00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:50,720 Speaker 3: even have the gig yet, and I think it's dangerous. 1020 00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,680 Speaker 3: It's Andrius Munos that is the guy that I want 1021 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,640 Speaker 3: to get as much investment as I possibly can with 1022 00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,880 Speaker 3: just a huge, huge fastball, which is the thing that 1023 00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,040 Speaker 3: just kind of gets me going. He's healthy. Paul Seawald 1024 00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,600 Speaker 3: than him, both kind of vying for not being healthy. 1025 00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,760 Speaker 3: Thirteen point two to nine k per nine, just barely 1026 00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:12,400 Speaker 3: to a walk per nine, which I think is phenomenal 1027 00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:15,320 Speaker 3: for a really big fastball guy like him. He actually 1028 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,839 Speaker 3: had a better x FIP than his Era two four 1029 00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,759 Speaker 3: nine era with a two x FIP. And I look 1030 00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:25,600 Speaker 3: at Andris Munos as the quintessidial classic closer. There are 1031 00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,680 Speaker 3: so many guys you could depend on at the top 1032 00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:29,920 Speaker 3: end that are not going to break out that middle 1033 00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:31,319 Speaker 3: in I think there's a lot of guys that are 1034 00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:35,040 Speaker 3: in rotational issues, Johan Duran and him. I feel like 1035 00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:36,279 Speaker 3: you got to take a side. You got to take 1036 00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:37,759 Speaker 3: a side on which is the guy you want to 1037 00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,160 Speaker 3: break out. I think Paul Seawald is a solid closer, 1038 00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:41,759 Speaker 3: but I think they could do and they will do, 1039 00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,320 Speaker 3: is they'll put him in more of a leverage situation 1040 00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:48,200 Speaker 3: as the veteran guy and let Andres Munio's blow by 1041 00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:51,160 Speaker 3: people because I think that is what he ultimately does best. 1042 00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,480 Speaker 3: Andres Munos, I want as much investment as possible with 1043 00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,600 Speaker 3: a one hundred average fastball. One hundred and two was 1044 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,200 Speaker 3: his average fastball, and he throws a power slider that 1045 00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,520 Speaker 3: is almost at ninety seven miles an hour. So I'll 1046 00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:04,920 Speaker 3: take that. 1047 00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,319 Speaker 1: Every day, you and me both. I'm aggressive on him 1048 00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,080 Speaker 1: as well. He's gonna be part of this video. I've 1049 00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:12,000 Speaker 1: got the mustafs of twenty twenty three. Stay tuned for 1050 00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,840 Speaker 1: that on our YouTube channel. Subscribe again, Fantasy pros MLB 1051 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,439 Speaker 1: erro Kellen. Who's the closer for the all breakout team 1052 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:18,719 Speaker 1: for you this year? Yeah? 1053 00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,680 Speaker 2: And by the way, Muno's is on my labor team 1054 00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,200 Speaker 2: that I picked this weekend along with Duran and I 1055 00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:25,200 Speaker 2: got ened with Diaz. 1056 00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:26,879 Speaker 4: I got a lot of saves on my team there. 1057 00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,080 Speaker 4: You're doing good. Yeah, absolutely. 1058 00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,120 Speaker 2: The only thing is Muno's I don't know if he's 1059 00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,520 Speaker 2: gonna be a leverage guy. She'll get plenty of saves, 1060 00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:37,880 Speaker 2: but is he gonna be full closed or full leverage 1061 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:39,560 Speaker 2: with I don't know. But this guy that I have 1062 00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:43,000 Speaker 2: I think is the man Alex Lang of the Tigers. 1063 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,120 Speaker 2: Basically by the full the rest of the Tigers actually stick. 1064 00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:51,359 Speaker 2: The bullpen is horrendous, and that's good because it means 1065 00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,320 Speaker 2: that he's more guaranteed the job. He had a thirty 1066 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,800 Speaker 2: one percent strike out rate last year. His only problem 1067 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:59,560 Speaker 2: is walks, but hey, that didn't prevent Gregory Soto last 1068 00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:01,960 Speaker 2: year from getting the closer's job and running with it 1069 00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,440 Speaker 2: for a couple of straight years. I think Tiger's not 1070 00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,359 Speaker 2: gonna be a fantastic team, but I think he's being 1071 00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,080 Speaker 2: able to pull out twenty twenty five saves, and you're 1072 00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:11,439 Speaker 2: getting him in a much cheaper cost than anybody else 1073 00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,239 Speaker 2: who's guaranteed, even less than munyos of Duran or any 1074 00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:15,680 Speaker 2: of those guys. 1075 00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,160 Speaker 4: Towards the end, we're talking pick two thirty or so. 1076 00:47:19,000 --> 00:47:21,360 Speaker 2: And you know, close saves and closers are hard to 1077 00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,280 Speaker 2: get this year because there's just a lot of certain 1078 00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,319 Speaker 2: there's only a little bit of certainty at the top, 1079 00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:27,880 Speaker 2: and a lot of shots and a lot of crappy pitchers. 1080 00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,960 Speaker 2: Lang has the skills to be a closer, and uh, 1081 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,399 Speaker 2: he's gonna be the saves guy. So I think it's 1082 00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:37,360 Speaker 2: a safer pick, very late, safe, cheap. That sounds like 1083 00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,200 Speaker 2: good for an actuary like me, So there you go. 1084 00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,560 Speaker 1: Sounds good, all right. Let's recap Ariel's roster at catcher, 1085 00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:46,000 Speaker 1: Logan Ohappy, the Slapio Hopi, Josh Nayler first, Nick Gordon 1086 00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:50,040 Speaker 1: at second, Alec Bowm at third, Than Tovar at short, McCarthy, 1087 00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:54,160 Speaker 1: Friedel Siri in the outfield, Jeffrey Springs, David Peterson, George Kirby, 1088 00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,560 Speaker 1: and Alex Lang to round out the rotation of the 1089 00:47:56,600 --> 00:48:00,000 Speaker 1: bullpen on welshah Side Stevenson the catcher, Jose Miranda at first, 1090 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:03,160 Speaker 1: cj Abrams a second, Jordan Walker at third, Wander Franco 1091 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,239 Speaker 1: at short, Lars Newt bar and Brian Delacruz along with 1092 00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,560 Speaker 1: Riley Green in the outfield. Then Nic Lodolo, Debt Mers, 1093 00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,520 Speaker 1: Waznowski and Andre's munio is rounding it out. So those 1094 00:48:11,520 --> 00:48:14,040 Speaker 1: are names to pay close attention on and get ready 1095 00:48:14,080 --> 00:48:16,520 Speaker 1: to draft them, maybe a little aggressively as well, because 1096 00:48:16,560 --> 00:48:18,759 Speaker 1: some of that we're coming at quiet discount. Go get 1097 00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,200 Speaker 1: your guys. Go get some of these guys because the 1098 00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:24,600 Speaker 1: ATC projections are high on them. Go follow our friend 1099 00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:27,200 Speaker 1: as well. Ariel Cohen over on the Twitter machine at 1100 00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:31,680 Speaker 1: ATC and why and also be weary of him in 1101 00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,320 Speaker 1: a fast pitch softball game. The guy's got an absolute cannon, 1102 00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,839 Speaker 1: very intimidating. He knocks guys down to the grounds. He's 1103 00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:40,760 Speaker 1: like the It's like the Don Drysdale of softball pitchers. 1104 00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:42,480 Speaker 1: You gotta see the videos of him on Twitter and 1105 00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:46,279 Speaker 1: on Facebook. Also, don't forget to Draft Assistant with SYNC. 1106 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,319 Speaker 1: It's an incredible set of tools that plug right into 1107 00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:52,239 Speaker 1: your drafts wherever you're drafting, help you make all the 1108 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:54,759 Speaker 1: right decisions, and you can get it at fantasypros dot 1109 00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,880 Speaker 1: com slash Premium. So go MVP, go Hall Fame today, 1110 00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:01,439 Speaker 1: join our discord, subscribe to our YouTube channel. Because Leading 1111 00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,600 Speaker 1: Office coming around in just a few weeks. It's an 1112 00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,720 Speaker 1: amazing time to be alive. This week, we're also gonna 1113 00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,960 Speaker 1: have the All Sleeper team with Steve Gardner, so stick 1114 00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:11,040 Speaker 1: around for that as well. I want to thank the 1115 00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:12,960 Speaker 1: sponsor of today's show, and that's fan Tracks. Head over 1116 00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,919 Speaker 1: to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. Sign up today 1117 00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:17,719 Speaker 1: for a new league, create a new league, or move 1118 00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:20,440 Speaker 1: your existing leagues over to fan Tracks, the best place 1119 00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:22,920 Speaker 1: to play Fantasy Baseball and you can win a signed 1120 00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:26,840 Speaker 1: Vladimir Guerrero junior jersey only at fantracks dot com slash 1121 00:49:26,840 --> 00:49:29,000 Speaker 1: Fantasy Prose. That'll do it for us, but the story 1122 00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,320 Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Ario Con. In the Welsh, 1123 00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,000 Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,