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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day three hundred

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Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story

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Speaker 1: in the UK, where a fast spreading variant of the

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Speaker 1: virus was first detected. The outbreak is raging. The government

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Speaker 1: is banking on a strict new lockdown to save the

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Speaker 1: health care system from buckling. But first, here's what happened

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Speaker 1: in virus news today. The United States had its deadliest

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Speaker 1: day yet from the pandemic on Thursday. For the first time,

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Speaker 1: the country exceeded four thousand daily fatalities. It's a number

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Speaker 1: that was once unthinkable. The data were compiled by Johns

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Speaker 1: Hopkins University and Bloomberg. Around two hundred and seventy seven

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Speaker 1: thousand new cases were reported nationally on Thursday. That's among

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Speaker 1: the highest numbers for the entire pandemic. As states report

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Speaker 1: surging cases following the holidays. Hospitalizations also hit a record,

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Speaker 1: according to the COVID Tracking Project. A new study shows

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Speaker 1: that the COVID nineteen vaccine, developed by Faser and bioan Tech,

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Speaker 1: may protect against the new fast spreading variants of the coronavirus.

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Speaker 1: The study, done by Researchers at the University of Texas

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Speaker 1: Medical Branch and supported by the two drug companies, honed

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Speaker 1: in on a crucial mutation in the virus's spike protein

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Speaker 1: that is common to both fast spreading variants. Antibodies in

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Speaker 1: the blood of people who had been vaccinated were able

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Speaker 1: to neutralize a lab created version of the mutant virus. Finally,

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Speaker 1: Italy is among several European nations who are tightening up

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Speaker 1: restrictions in the face of a surging virus. The government

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Speaker 1: will close bars and restaurants as part of the clampdown

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Speaker 1: in Milan and its surrounding area, as well as for

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Speaker 1: other regions. Croatia extended similar restrictions until January one. Hungary

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Speaker 1: and France have also prolonged virus curbs. Cyprus has tightened restrictions,

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Speaker 1: including a requirement for people to send text message when

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Speaker 1: they plan to leave home, and Irish businesses closed due

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Speaker 1: to coronavirus restrictions should assume they won't reopen before the

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Speaker 1: end of March. And now for today's main story. The

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom's national health system is in danger of breaking

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Speaker 1: under the weight of its raging coronavirus outbreak and the

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Speaker 1: next few weeks will be its biggest challenge yet. The

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Speaker 1: UK is at the epicenter of the European struggle to

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Speaker 1: contain COVID nineteen. The death toll is the highest in

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Speaker 1: Europe and daily infections are at a record. Medical staff

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Speaker 1: say they may be forced to turn people away from

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Speaker 1: hospitals if the latest lockdown fails to stop the spread

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Speaker 1: quickly enough. I spoke to London based reporter James Payton

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Speaker 1: about the fast spreading new virus strain and the next

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Speaker 1: crucial weeks for the country's health system. Britain has been

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Speaker 1: severely affected by the pandemic. This week it regained its

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Speaker 1: place as the worst hit European country in terms of fatalities,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering, you know, how are Britain's hospitals

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Speaker 1: and health care system holding up with all of this

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Speaker 1: going on. Yeah, well, it's a pretty bleak picture at

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Speaker 1: the moment, and a race against time in many ways

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Speaker 1: in Britain, because the virus is surging again, as you know,

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Speaker 1: fueled in part by at least in part by this

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Speaker 1: new variant of the virus that was detected in the

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Speaker 1: UH the country last month. The Mayor of London has

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Speaker 1: recently described the pathogen as being out of control. Health

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Speaker 1: officials said earlier this week that one in fifty people

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Speaker 1: in England has COVID nineteen, which is quite a stunning statistic. UH.

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Speaker 1: And at the same time, the country is sprinting ahead

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Speaker 1: to vaccinate as many people as it possibly can in

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Speaker 1: the shortest amount of time to try to alleviate pressure

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Speaker 1: on the health system, which is already stretched. You know,

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Speaker 1: entered the pandemic UM in a in a difficult position.

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Speaker 1: So UM. You know that the health system in the

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Speaker 1: UK survived the first wave of the Corona virus despite UH,

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Speaker 1: you know, significant worries at the time. UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: the government asked everyone to go the extra mile. UH

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Speaker 1: during the first lockdown in the spring. You you may

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Speaker 1: recall that people here in Britain stood on their doorsteps

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Speaker 1: and applauded health workers every Thursday night. UH. Children painted

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Speaker 1: rainbows to stick on the front windows of their homes.

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Speaker 1: Everyone rallied around UH doctors and UH and nurses. But

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Speaker 1: you know, this time, the fatigue, I think and the

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Speaker 1: frustration is is growing and there's you know, a concern

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Speaker 1: as you as you mentioned that the system will be

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Speaker 1: able to cope with this latest rise of infections. As

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Speaker 1: I mentioned, it's you know, it's a system that was

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Speaker 1: under pressure for years coming into this crisis, facing a

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Speaker 1: nursing shortage of about forty thousand unfilled positions, among a

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Speaker 1: number of other constraints. So, you know, people across Britain

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Speaker 1: are seeing all this alarming data and hearing anecdotes of

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Speaker 1: hospitals inundated with patients, people spilling out into the corridors. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know, ambulances lining up outside hospitals. UM. And you know,

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Speaker 1: health workers that I've talked to and some of my

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Speaker 1: colleagues have talked to UH tell us that they are exhausted,

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Speaker 1: they're stressed, unsure if if hospitals will be will be

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Speaker 1: able to cope. So the nation is now in its

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Speaker 1: third lockdown. As as infections, you know, continue to climb,

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Speaker 1: death toll in the UK is now at more than

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Speaker 1: seventy eight thousand, that's the highest in Europe. UH and UM,

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Speaker 1: the next few weeks are really going to be crucial

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Speaker 1: in answering answering those questions. And you know, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: this already stressed system, the NHS, they now have a

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Speaker 1: a dual role in some ways to not only continue

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Speaker 1: to pre I care for a rising number of COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen patients, but also to carry out a massive public

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Speaker 1: health immunization program. I mean, is there a concern that,

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Speaker 1: of course the NHS may not have the resources to

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Speaker 1: do this, this two pronged responsibility. It's a it's a

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Speaker 1: really good question because, as you say, on the one hand,

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Speaker 1: the system is dealing with this sharp rise in cases. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And then on the other hand, it's being asked to

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Speaker 1: carry out a mass immunization program and not just you know,

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Speaker 1: vaccinating millions of people. But this is an unprecedented operation.

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Speaker 1: It has you know, their production hurdles, logistics issues, public

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Speaker 1: education challenges. Uh. You know, we're talking about vaccinating tens

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Speaker 1: of millions of people in you know, hopefully you know,

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Speaker 1: a matter of months. Uh. So clearly this is just putting,

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Speaker 1: you know, even more strain on the system. You know,

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Speaker 1: there has there has been a lot of planning in

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Speaker 1: recent months up until this point. The UK is relying,

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Speaker 1: for instance, on the military. I think it's about five

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Speaker 1: thousand members of the armed forces that uh, you know

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Speaker 1: have been called on to help, uh, their volunteers. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It's a it's a truly you know, massive effort, but

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Speaker 1: you know, snags are inevitable. Other countries as well, the US,

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Speaker 1: other governments across the European Union now are experiencing some

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Speaker 1: of these issues. Um, it's not going to be easy

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Speaker 1: and I think it's gonna take it's going to take

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Speaker 1: some time. But clearly that is uh, you know, that's

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Speaker 1: adding to the pressure. But the UK has is really betting.

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Speaker 1: I mean everyone uh is betting on vaccines right now.

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Speaker 1: The scene is the exit strategy here globally. But the

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Speaker 1: UK has made a really, really big push. They were

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Speaker 1: the first country in the Western world to begin rolling

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Speaker 1: out vaccines, moving ahead of the US and the European Union.

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Speaker 1: Country acquired uh, you know, hundreds of millions of doses uh,

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Speaker 1: of several different vaccines in advance, including the fightser BioNTech vaccine,

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Speaker 1: the homegrown shot from Astra Zeneca in the University of

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Speaker 1: Oxford and and the Madurna vaccine which actually just got

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Speaker 1: authorized in the UK. You know, our Bloomberg tracker shows

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Speaker 1: I think about one point five million people have been

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Speaker 1: have been vaccinated thus far. That's more than two percent

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Speaker 1: of the population. Uh. So it's it's it's you know,

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Speaker 1: the big strides that have been made, but it also

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Speaker 1: underscores how this is, how this is a long road.

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Speaker 1: And as far as you know, the state that Brittain

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Speaker 1: is in right now, with the rising number of cases, fatalities, etcetera,

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Speaker 1: has this at all changed the vaccine rollout process? I mean,

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Speaker 1: as you said that it's been quite rapid moving thus far,

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Speaker 1: but is there any kind of expectation that this might

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Speaker 1: slow down because of this strain on the health care system. Well,

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Speaker 1: what's interesting is that the UK is actually in recent

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Speaker 1: days has maken has taken a pretty bold step kind

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Speaker 1: of going out in the limb a bit in uh

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Speaker 1: in altering how it's going to do this. And a

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Speaker 1: key part of the plan is to UH space out

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Speaker 1: the two doses of the first vaccines that have been authorized,

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Speaker 1: the first two vaccines, to delay the second dose by

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Speaker 1: up to twelve weeks. And so the goal here is

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Speaker 1: to stretch out supplies to maximize the number of people

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Speaker 1: who get some level of protection in the shortest amount

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Speaker 1: of time. So the government says the data justify that

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Speaker 1: decision and that people get good protection after the first shot,

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Speaker 1: and the lengthening that interval doesn't weaken the immune response

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Speaker 1: after the two dose courses completed. But there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of doubts about that, about that policy and what

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Speaker 1: happens during those twelve weeks, how quickly or not immunity

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Speaker 1: could wane. US officials and now European Union officials as

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Speaker 1: well just today have said that the data just don't

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Speaker 1: support such a decision. And and you know, it's not

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Speaker 1: kind of proud into this step to deviate um from

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Speaker 1: what was tested in the clinical trials, but it's an

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Speaker 1: interesting strategy that's sparked a really lively debate as the

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Speaker 1: as the urgency grows. So you know, some people have

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Speaker 1: have seen this as a bit of a gamble um.

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Speaker 1: You know, one person I talked to earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: the head of the British Society for Immunology, said that

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Speaker 1: the risk of not taking a step like that is

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Speaker 1: actually much greater. You know, he said, in a in

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Speaker 1: a normal world, we would stick to the plan that was,

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Speaker 1: you know, that the dosing that was tested in the

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Speaker 1: clinical trials. But he said, you know, uh, we're not

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Speaker 1: in a normal world at the moment. You know, things

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Speaker 1: have changed and there's there's you know, we're in this

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Speaker 1: unprecedented crisis. Uh, so we have to take a different

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Speaker 1: strategy basically, So the UK is making change just to

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Speaker 1: try to maximize the number of people who are who

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Speaker 1: are immunized, and it's it's too early to say how

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Speaker 1: that will unfold. Obviously, if it if it works, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the UK could have a significant advantage. And

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Speaker 1: if it doesn't, obviously that could leave the country vulnerable.

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Speaker 1: So we'll just have to wait and see. And as

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Speaker 1: far as some of the strategies that the UK has taken,

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Speaker 1: I mean, would you say, in your opinion, the most

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Speaker 1: recently announced lockdown, um that began I believe earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: that is part and parcel of this attempt to try

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Speaker 1: and at least mitigate these overwhelming stresses on this health

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Speaker 1: care system. Yeah, I mean that's definitely that's definitely true.

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Speaker 1: And I think for the for the government, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have to remember that going back over the past year,

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Speaker 1: the last ten months, really the government has been under

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Speaker 1: a lot of pressure and there's been a lot of

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Speaker 1: criticis is m of the way that the UK has

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Speaker 1: has responded. You know, people have said that the country

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Speaker 1: hasn't moved swiftly enough or efficiently enough to try to

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Speaker 1: get the virus under control. There's been scrutiny and criticism

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Speaker 1: of the strategy for testing and contact tracing. People have

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Speaker 1: said that the lockdowns have been carried out, you know,

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Speaker 1: too late. We're imposing more restrictions this week with vaccines

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Speaker 1: this the stakes are immense, right we are talking about,

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Speaker 1: you know, for the country and for the government sort

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Speaker 1: of an opportunity to uh, to redeem itself and to uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, to get control of this virus, to protect

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Speaker 1: a significant portion of the population. As you can imagine, UH,

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Speaker 1: some people aren't sure the government will be able to deliver.

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Speaker 1: The government has a strategy of or has a target

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Speaker 1: rather of vaccinating about fifteen million people by the middle

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Speaker 1: of next month. Obviously very vicious UM. And you know,

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Speaker 1: some based on the government's track records, some are doubting

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Speaker 1: whether that is is achievable. UM. But clearly there are

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Speaker 1: enormous resources going into this effort. We'll just have to

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Speaker 1: wait and see, but it's going to be a very

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Speaker 1: important and critical uh, several weeks ahead for the country.

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Speaker 1: That was James Peyton and that's it for our show

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Speaker 1: today for coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around

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Speaker 1: the world. Visit Bloomberg dot com, slash Coronavirus, and if

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Speaker 1: way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The

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Speaker 1: Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topha foreheads Magnus Henrickson

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Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by

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Speaker 1: James Peyton. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are

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Speaker 1: Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head

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Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening, m