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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go for the test throwing aspect.

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Speaker 2: We're saying, it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: That's all we see. Most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kobation if you want to pa.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up everyone?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by fanbu I

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Speaker 1: am your host, Chris Raybon, and this is our fifth

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Speaker 1: annual Proper Paloza episode covering all things prop betting for

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty seven. I'm joined as always by my

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Speaker 1: co host Sean Kerner, Action Networks director of predictive Analytics

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Speaker 1: and one of the best player projectionists out there.

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Speaker 2: Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 4: It's up?

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Speaker 3: Happy super Bowl? I think it goes without saying. This

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Speaker 3: is always one of my favorite podcasts to record each

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Speaker 3: and every year. So happy to be on. I think

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Speaker 3: this is my fourth time, maybe it's my fifth, but

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Speaker 3: either way, it's this is always one of my favorites.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: We might have had that loser Matthew Friedman on one

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Speaker 1: of the years, but yeah, shouts to Matthew, Missy bra

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Speaker 1: not Matt but uh yeah, no.

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Speaker 2: We uh yeah.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna what we're gonna do on this pod

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Speaker 1: is we're gonna do a Sunday six pack with our

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Speaker 1: three favorite So if anyone who listens to the normal

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Speaker 1: pod stucky and now you know what that's about.

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Speaker 2: And then we'll kind of go.

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Speaker 1: Through We'll go through pregame exotics, we'll go through the

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Speaker 1: MVP market, we'll go through the touchdown market, we'll go

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Speaker 1: through the quarter half market, play regular just traditional player

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Speaker 1: props and any other type of miscellaneous. So we'll go

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Speaker 1: through pretty much everything from start to finish in this pod.

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Speaker 1: But let's start it off with the Super Bowl fifty

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Speaker 1: seven Propapalooza Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: You get first pick where you going.

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Speaker 3: So, yeah, for my first pick of the Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with who will catch a pass first,

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Speaker 3: Isaiah Pachecko or Miles Sanders. I'm going with Isaiah Pachecko

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Speaker 3: at minus one thirty. This price definitely stuck out to

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Speaker 3: me because Pachecko's coming off his career best receiving line

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Speaker 3: last week. He got five passes for fifty nine yards.

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Speaker 3: The underlying usage definitely supported that. You know, he ran

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Speaker 3: a season high fifty two percent routes run rate. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you and I were trying to figure this out. Could

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Speaker 3: be due to just a number of factors. Really, you

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Speaker 3: know that the Chiefs ram more two to three tight

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Speaker 3: end sets due to all the wide receiver injuries, so

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Speaker 3: you know Pachecko's pecking order in the target tree kind

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Speaker 3: of went up. And you know, with guys like Miko

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Speaker 3: Harman out, Kadarius Tony still Iffy, those are guys that

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Speaker 3: do see design screen passes, so with one or both

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Speaker 3: of them out could help Pachecko in this market. Plus

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Speaker 3: Patrick Maholmes is dealing with that right ankle injury, so

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Speaker 3: he's less likely scramble and more likely to dump off

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Speaker 3: to his running back Pachecko when he is on the field.

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Speaker 3: So I'm projecting Pachecker closer to one point eight receptions,

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Speaker 3: which is in line with the market. And Miles Sanders,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's typically used an early down run heavy situations.

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Speaker 3: Plus Jalen Hurts tends to scramble more often than he

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Speaker 3: does check it down to running back, so I'm projecting

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Speaker 3: Sanders closer to his point nine receptions, which is also

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Speaker 3: in line with the market. So it's tricky to really

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Speaker 3: give an exact projection for this, but based on the receptions,

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Speaker 3: you know it's likely in the sixty seven percent range

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Speaker 3: that Pachecko gets the first reception, so I would set

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Speaker 3: the fair line closer to like minus two hundred for

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Speaker 3: this market. So I think we're getting quite a bit

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Speaker 3: of value here, and I bet this up to minus

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Speaker 3: one sixty even minus one seventy or so.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

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Speaker 1: I think Pachecko is going to be more involved in

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Speaker 1: this game plan as a receiver because, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: I think those heavier tight end formations are here to stay,

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Speaker 1: and when you do that, you know you gotta worry

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Speaker 1: about those edge players.

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Speaker 2: For Philly, I think it's.

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Speaker 1: More likely use a guy like Noah Gray maybe at

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Speaker 1: forts and to block. Obviously, Kelsey's not going to be

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Speaker 1: that guy, so it does free up the running back

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Speaker 1: and I think they want to get Pacheco the ball,

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Speaker 1: I mean, after seeing what he did in the championship.

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Speaker 1: And I'll talk about it later, but Pacheco's also been

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Speaker 1: a lot better than McKinnon on the ground too, so

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Speaker 1: they really have no reason not to feature Prochecko in

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Speaker 1: this game. In my opinion, all right, for my first

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Speaker 1: pick in the second overall of the Super Bowl fifty

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Speaker 1: seven Sunday six pack, I'm going with over ten accepted

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Speaker 1: penalties at minus one ten. Carl Cheffers is known for

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Speaker 1: calling a lot of penalties all time. He's called eleven

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Speaker 1: or more penalties seventy eight percent of the time regular

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Speaker 1: and postseason, and he's called nine or fewer just fifteen

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Speaker 1: percent of the time. He's called exactly ten seven percent

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Speaker 1: of the time. Now in the postseason he does swallow

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Speaker 1: the whistle a little bit more, But I still, especially

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Speaker 1: if you can get the ten, I think there's still

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Speaker 1: a big edge because he's called eleven or more fifty

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Speaker 1: percent on the time. In the postseason he's called exactly

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Speaker 1: ten forty time, and then nine or few are just

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Speaker 1: eight percent of the time. So if you could get

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Speaker 1: that on exactly ten, I think you're still getting a

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Speaker 1: big edge ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: I still think there's an edge there as well.

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Speaker 1: But overall, this guy just caused a lot of penalties,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not sure.

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Speaker 2: I think the books are kind of just pricing it.

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Speaker 1: Do you know league average penalty numbers here, so big

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Speaker 1: edge on on the over.

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Speaker 3: You know, I love me some rest stats. I think

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Speaker 3: it would matter if it's ten to ten and a half. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: just based on his postseason rate of ten exactly, such.

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Speaker 1: A small stamp because we're looking at all time, we're

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Speaker 1: talking about over a decade. When we're talking about postseason,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about like twelve games. So still I would

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Speaker 1: still kind of lean toward the the one with like,

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Speaker 1: you know, ten x more games. So that's why I

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Speaker 1: even at ten and a half, I think there's an edge.

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Speaker 1: But but yeah, if you want to go by the postseason,

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Speaker 1: then obviously you want the ten even which I have

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Speaker 1: seen at a number of books in the market, we

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Speaker 1: go for you or a second.

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Speaker 3: So for my second pick of the Super Bowl six

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Speaker 3: pack is the Chiefs to call the first time out

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Speaker 3: at minus one fifteen. And again, this seems like a

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Speaker 3: market where you know, it should be similar to a

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Speaker 3: coin toss or it's more of a fifty to fifty

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Speaker 3: type of thing that just comes down to luck. Luck,

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Speaker 3: But that's just not the case some coaches or they're

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Speaker 3: more likely to waste timeouts than others, and I consider

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Speaker 3: a wasted time out you know, a timeout used either

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Speaker 3: on offense or defense. You know outside of the last

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Speaker 3: four minutes of the half. You know, whether it's trying

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Speaker 3: to prevent a delay of game penalty, not having the

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Speaker 3: right person on the field, or whatever reason. Ideally, coaches

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Speaker 3: would save their timeouts for the last four minutes of

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Speaker 3: the half to stop the clock for strategic reasons. And

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Speaker 3: Sean McVay is one of the worst in wasting timeouts.

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Speaker 3: That's why I hammered the Rams to call the first

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Speaker 3: time out last year, But this year I'm shrying value

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Speaker 3: in both directions. Actually, on this season, Andy Reid has

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Speaker 3: been pretty sloppy when it comes to timeouts. The Chiefs

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Speaker 3: are called the first time out in fifteen of nineteen

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Speaker 3: games this year, so that's seventy nine percent. He's going

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Speaker 3: through timeouts like their cheeseburgers, and twelve of those first

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Speaker 3: timeouts were of the wasted variety. That's typically what a

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Speaker 3: first timeout is going to be, right, it's a wasted timeout.

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Speaker 3: And on the other side, Nick Sirianni is very good

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Speaker 3: at conservative his timeouts. He typically does not waste timeouts.

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Speaker 3: Since he came in the league. This season, he's only

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Speaker 3: called the first time out in seven of nineteen games,

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Speaker 3: so that's a thirty seven percent rate, and only five

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Speaker 3: of those have been of the wasted variety. So this

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Speaker 3: is one of those things. Once it gets closer the

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Speaker 3: two minute warning, it's going to come down to luck.

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Speaker 3: But I do think the chances are good that Andy

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Speaker 3: Reid's going to blow a timeout well before Nick Sirianni does,

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Speaker 3: So this is a market. I would set the line

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Speaker 3: closer to you know, the Chiefs calling this around sixty

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Speaker 3: sixty five percent most of the time on the for

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Speaker 3: the first timeout. So I love the value we're getting

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Speaker 3: here at minus one fifteen, and I would bet this

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Speaker 3: up to you know, minus one forty or so. I

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Speaker 3: just think this is one of those props that I

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Speaker 3: feel really really good about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I saw a stat saying that, essentially, I believe it,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles were the only team that didn't blow a

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Speaker 1: first a timeout on a late play call on offense

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Speaker 1: or something like that. So yeah, they don't lose timeouts

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Speaker 1: very often, and when they do, it's usually, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's not for the reasons that most teams, which is,

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Speaker 1: like you said, like the player's late getting.

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Speaker 2: In or something like that. So yeah, I like this

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Speaker 2: one too.

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Speaker 1: It's a good fine all right. For my second and

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Speaker 1: the fourth overall pick of the Super Bowl fifty seven

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Speaker 1: Sunday six pack, I'm going Patrick Mahomes's longest run under

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Speaker 1: eleven and a half yards and minus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: He's been under in twelve of his nineteen games this

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Speaker 1: season at sixty three percent, and that's with them being

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Speaker 1: mostly healthy here. Philly also plays a lot of zone,

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Speaker 1: so it's not like they're turning and running with the

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Speaker 1: with the receiver as much, which kind of limits where

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Speaker 1: the quarterback can go and how long it can go.

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Speaker 2: So obviously Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: Could be a little bit healthier uh in this game

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Speaker 1: than he was two weeks ago in the Championship, but

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Speaker 1: still for the season, he would be The true odds

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Speaker 1: for this will be closer about minus one eighty. And

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Speaker 1: if you look at just what Philadelphia is gonna do,

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Speaker 1: like he could get he could get more runs, if

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Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean they're all gonna he's gonna break

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Speaker 1: like a twelve yard or so. Most of the markets

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Speaker 1: expecting him to get about three carries that aren't Neil downs,

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Speaker 1: so you're looking at, you know, probably three chances. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe you get a fourth, but you know, I think

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Speaker 1: the I think the the number is too high here

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Speaker 1: in terms of eleven and a half. I think it

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Speaker 1: should be closer, you know, to nine, ten and a half,

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Speaker 1: closer to like what a true scramble would be plus

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Speaker 1: plus minus like a couple of yards, so in scrambled

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Speaker 1: by the way seven yards average. So yeah, so this

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Speaker 1: is this would be a tough one even at full strength.

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Speaker 2: I think this will be a little overvalue.

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Speaker 1: But with him, with the uncertainty of I could even

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Speaker 1: more so going Mahomes under eleven and a half for

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Speaker 1: a long Oh, I like it.

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Speaker 3: I have just been avoiding all Patrick Mahomes rushing props.

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Speaker 3: I didn't even build that out in my simulator. That's

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Speaker 3: how much I'm fading it. But I didn't realize his

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Speaker 3: longest rush prop was this high.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So if you if you're showing guy you like even

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Speaker 3: if he was healthy. Yeah, I just love the downside

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Speaker 3: the fact that he's not healthy. So yeah, I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: have to check this one out. This seems too good

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Speaker 3: to be true.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it seems like everyone's just kind of pricing his

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Speaker 1: rushing numbers closer back, you know, right back into season average,

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Speaker 1: which again could be but like I said, even if

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Speaker 1: it's at a season average, that's it's still too high.

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Speaker 1: So all right, where are you going for your third?

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Speaker 3: So for my third pick of the Super Bowl six pack,

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Chiefs to have the longest gross

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Speaker 3: punt in the game at minus one fifty five gross punt,

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Speaker 3: just meaning how far the ball travels. That's not including

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Speaker 3: the distance. You know, Tommy town said, has been anything

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Speaker 3: butt gross this year. He has been awesome. His fifty

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Speaker 3: point four yards per punt ranked second on the season.

234
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Speaker 3: I mean, he's been really, really good. I already locked

235
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Speaker 3: in his prop of over forty six and a half

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Speaker 3: yards for his first punt. I think he's gonna boom

237
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Speaker 3: a few punts in this game. And on the other side,

238
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Speaker 3: the Eagles, we don't really know who their punter is

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Speaker 3: gonna be. Aaron Sippsis returned from the ir but it's

240
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Speaker 3: unclear if he's gonna actually play in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: And he only averaged forty five point six yards per punt,

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Speaker 3: which ranked twenty six, So even if he does play,

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Speaker 3: he's going to be a bit rusty. Maybe he's less

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Speaker 3: than one hundred percent, and if he's unable to go,

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Speaker 3: it'll be Brett Kern, who's even worse. He's averaged forty

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Speaker 3: point eight yards per punt granted unlimited action this season,

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Speaker 3: Billy punter. I use that on quotes that has a

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Speaker 3: lower yards per punt is Jake Elliott, who subbed in

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Speaker 3: for Zippis when he got injured in games. So that

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Speaker 3: just goes to show the Eagles don't really have much,

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Speaker 3: you know, on the punting side. So in I sims,

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Speaker 3: you know, I'm getting the Chiefs around a seventy percent

253
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Speaker 3: chance to have the longest punt in this game. So

254
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Speaker 3: I'm showing the fair price closer to the closer to

255
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Speaker 3: minus two thirty five in this market. And that's with

256
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Speaker 3: the best case scenario of Eagles having Sippus returning in

257
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Speaker 3: this game. So if it were to be current, you know,

258
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Speaker 3: it'd be closer to minus two fifty maybe minus three hundred.

259
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,360
Speaker 3: So I love the value we're getting here at minus

260
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Speaker 3: one fifty five, and I bet this probably up to

261
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Speaker 3: minus two hundred.

262
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Speaker 1: Nice. Yeah, And you know you can also get some

263
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Speaker 1: luck go your way if the Chiefs just happened to

264
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Speaker 1: punt more than the Eagles, which is.

265
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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, the market for that's basically a coin flip,

266
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Speaker 3: so that that's not really a factor in this. But yeah,

267
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Speaker 3: that's certainly something that could go against me in this.

268
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Speaker 3: But really, we just need a couple punts from Town

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Speaker 3: said to probably get something that clears fifty five yards,

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Speaker 3: and it's it's hard to see either Eagles punter getting

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Speaker 3: that far and we probably only need two to three

272
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Speaker 3: punts anyway to take down this market.

273
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Speaker 4: All right.

274
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Speaker 1: For my third and final, the sixth overall of the

275
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Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty seven Sunday six pack, I'm going with

276
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,480
Speaker 1: the Eagles total rushing yards under one forty nine and

277
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Speaker 1: a half. I think there's some recency buias here because

278
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Speaker 1: the Eagles, you know, they have been blowing teams out

279
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Speaker 1: of late, and that obviously less you run the ball more.

280
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Speaker 1: But even in their second playoff game against the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers, who didn't have a quarterback, they only got

282
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,840
Speaker 1: to one forty eight, so they didn't even they only

283
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,040
Speaker 1: cleared this in one of the two despite you know,

284
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Speaker 1: having these blowout game scripts, now you're looking at what

285
00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,240
Speaker 1: could possibly be their most neutral or negative game script

286
00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,920
Speaker 1: of the season because you know they're favored by a

287
00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 1: point point and a half that that would be the

288
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Speaker 1: lowest of the season, so with Hurts in the lineup.

289
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Speaker 1: So for the season, they've been under one hundred and

290
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Speaker 1: forty nine and a half in twelve of their nineteen

291
00:13:52,640 --> 00:13:56,160
Speaker 1: games at sixty three percent so and including one of

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Speaker 1: the playoff games.

293
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Speaker 2: So you know it's gonna take a while.

294
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 1: We know they want to run the ball, it still

295
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,000
Speaker 1: would take a lot or for them to like for

296
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 1: this to be the median. I think this is a

297
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:12,040
Speaker 1: pretty optimistic outcome for Philadelphia. And if they get behind earlier,

298
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,400
Speaker 1: if the Chiefs go up but you know, seven nothing

299
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,560
Speaker 1: or something like that, I think it's gonna be a

300
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,400
Speaker 1: lot tougher because Philadelphia they do like to come out

301
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 1: early in the game and throw the ball. So what

302
00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 1: usually happens is they come out early, you know things

303
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,120
Speaker 1: are working for them, they get a lead, and then

304
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 1: they're able to run for most of the second half.

305
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,880
Speaker 1: But if they're not able to do that against the Chiefs,

306
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 1: which you know, of all the teams and all the

307
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 1: offenses they face this year, you know Mahomes is the

308
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,440
Speaker 1: best quarterback, it's probably the best offense. Then you're not

309
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 1: gonna see the same amount of rush volumes. So and

310
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Speaker 1: the Chiefs have been pretty solid against the run, pretty

311
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 1: much league average, So I think this is a little

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Speaker 1: bit of recency. Guys, just looking at that that Giants game.

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Speaker 1: They've played the Giant so much in the last you know,

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Speaker 1: last part of the season that in the Giants were

315
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams against the run, and then

316
00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 1: they also played the Bears, who were I believe the

317
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,120
Speaker 1: worst in a week. So they played like a bunch

318
00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 1: of bottom bottom three run defenses over this last you know,

319
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 1: six seven weeks that I think it's just a little

320
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,600
Speaker 1: bit of recency bias, a little bit of inflation here.

321
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 1: I would set this closer to about one forty two

322
00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,600
Speaker 1: or one forty two and a half or something like that.

323
00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 1: So I like the value on under one forty.

324
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 2: Nine and a half.

325
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it. And I was surprised that they

326
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:22,520
Speaker 3: didn't clear this last week.

327
00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 1: You know.

328
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Speaker 3: Granted, the forty nine ers are an elite run defense,

329
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 3: but I just thought since they blew them out, they

330
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 3: would have cleared it. So I'm looking at my sim

331
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Speaker 3: and I have the median around one thirty three. But

332
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Speaker 3: that's without Boston Scott, So that that's really close to

333
00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 3: you're one forty two.

334
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so Scott from like, yeah, eight to ten yards.

335
00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, like eight to ten yards exactly. And just this

336
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 3: is a game where the Eagles will be a little

337
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 3: bit more passivy than usual because it will be a

338
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,960
Speaker 3: rare close, potentially trailing game. Script So yeah, I could

339
00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 3: definitely get behind this one as well.

340
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:57,240
Speaker 2: All right, So that's our six pack to recap.

341
00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 1: Sean has Checko to catch a pass before or Miles

342
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,440
Speaker 1: Sanders at minus one thirty, the Chiefs to call the

343
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:07,000
Speaker 1: first time out at minus one fifteed, and the Chiefs

344
00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 1: to have the longer gross punt at minus one fifty

345
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 1: five going over ten accepted penalties at minus one ten,

346
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,120
Speaker 1: Mahome's longest run under eleven and a half at minus

347
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 1: one twenty five, and the Eagles under one hundred and

348
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 1: forty nine and a half rushing yards. All right, now,

349
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 1: let's start talking with some of the other props in

350
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 1: this game. We'll start with some pregame exotics. I think

351
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 1: the big one really is gonna be the national anthem. Obviously,

352
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: this is gonna be no edge on betting the coin

353
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,520
Speaker 1: to us or anything like that. But so I'm looking

354
00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 1: so Chris Stapleton is who's singing it. But the over

355
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 1: under I've seen is two minutes and five seconds. Going

356
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:51,400
Speaker 1: back over the last sixteen years, only four of the

357
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 1: anthems have gone over that and the other twelve have

358
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 1: gone under. So I think there's a lot of value

359
00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 1: on the under. Last year, I believe it was like

360
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,600
Speaker 1: they did like a minute forty five or something. It

361
00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,120
Speaker 1: was way too way too low, so that we were

362
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,639
Speaker 1: banging the over. But really, I think a lot of

363
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:07,879
Speaker 1: what a lot of people do is they end up

364
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 1: looking at the singer and looking at their previous ones.

365
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,040
Speaker 1: But you can't really do that because they always kind

366
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,159
Speaker 1: of drag it out because it's the Super Bowl. So

367
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 1: I think you just have to kind of look at

368
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,360
Speaker 1: the prior Super Bowls in general, and that's what that's

369
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,000
Speaker 1: what's kind of been working for me over the years.

370
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,760
Speaker 1: So at that two o five number, I would go under.

371
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 1: The average has been one fifty nine and the median

372
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 1: has been one fifty six and a half over these

373
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 1: last sixteen Super Bowls. So yeah, I think it's this

374
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,400
Speaker 1: is under a rare under year for wow.

375
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Well I usually just tail you on these.

376
00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 3: I put zero effort in any pregame props. But I wonder,

377
00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 3: is he gonna be playing a guitar? Do we know?

378
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 2: I don't know.

379
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: That's a good question.

380
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,119
Speaker 3: That's something I think I used to still kind of

381
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 3: can play guitar. But when you're playing guitar, you're gonna

382
00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,000
Speaker 3: be less likely to like speed up or slow down.

383
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 3: You're probably gonna be more consistent. So if he's playing

384
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,400
Speaker 3: with the guitar, if there's any like you know, sometimes

385
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,360
Speaker 3: we get word of like the practice time, like how

386
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,879
Speaker 3: long he took in practice, it's probably going to be

387
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,200
Speaker 3: you know, a narrow range of outcomes if he's playing

388
00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:18,880
Speaker 3: with a guitar, because that'll keep him in line.

389
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,720
Speaker 1: You know what I'm looking at to what's really interesting.

390
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:26,120
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the names now. I think he's only one.

391
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 1: He's only like the the second or third guy over

392
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 1: the last sixteen oh, like Mickey gut and Jasmine Sullivan, Demielo,

393
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 1: Yeah Night, Pink Lady Gaga, Dida Menzel or Nate Fleming,

394
00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,280
Speaker 1: and we should keep parks Harry under with Christina Aguilair,

395
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 1: Jennifer Hudson, Jordan's spot like it was Billy Joe, Billy,

396
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,160
Speaker 1: Joel was playing a piano, woop woop, Brian and all

397
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,120
Speaker 1: three of those Eric Church well that was with jazz,

398
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,439
Speaker 1: so they had a when they had a duet, it

399
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 1: was over.

400
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 2: The only two guys have.

401
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 1: Both been under given one has been under by a

402
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 1: second if it was two or five, but it was

403
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 1: that two four and the other one Bill Joel was

404
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 1: one thirty.

405
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 2: So that's something I just thought about.

406
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 3: Interesting.

407
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 1: I think that's kind of interesting too.

408
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 3: And Luke Bryan might have been the only one playing

409
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 3: guitar if he was playing guitar at it.

410
00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he was Yeah, so he was two o

411
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: four So maybe that's a good line. Maybe two five. Yeah,

412
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 1: very sharp line. But either way, like I always find that,

413
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 1: you got to kind of just look back at the

414
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: at the kind of the overall how long it goes

415
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl versus like the specific singer. So

416
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 1: I would still go under either way, but obviously depends

417
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: on you know, the book, the lines could differ drastically,

418
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 1: I guess.

419
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 3: Yeah. So my next question is like when would you

420
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 3: time this? Do you think this is something that will

421
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 3: likely go up? Like do people usually bet on the over?

422
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 3: And you know, we'll add a couple of seconds, or

423
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:42,720
Speaker 3: is this something we should get now?

424
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 1: I think I think i'd wait because I think people

425
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 1: in general like to bet over, so you know, the

426
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 1: over still it's kind of just like, uh, it's just

427
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: another over, and it's like an over to start the

428
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,200
Speaker 1: game too, So I would. I would. I could see

429
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 1: it going up a little bit, especially you know, the

430
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 1: year before last it went to two seventeen, so so

431
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 1: you know that's you know, yeah, you're looking at that

432
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,680
Speaker 1: and said, okay, maybe maybe it goes that high. So yeah,

433
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:06,639
Speaker 1: I would usually bet on people betting on the over.

434
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 1: Rut's tends to be how it.

435
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: Goes, especially like the final note. They want to see

436
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 3: that final note really get stretched out. So I think, yeah,

437
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,359
Speaker 3: the overall probably get the most actions, so that that

438
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 3: would be my guest too.

439
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk to some Super Bowl MVP here.

440
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:23,920
Speaker 1: You know, I think the important thing to know first

441
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:26,719
Speaker 1: of all is just some high level About seventy percent

442
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 1: of the winners over the last decade and a half

443
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: have been quarterbacks. Two of the last four have been

444
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: pass catchers, and even if Pup didn't win last year,

445
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 1: it would have been T Higgins as it would have

446
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 1: been a last catcher no matter the outcome. Last year,

447
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 1: no running backs since the turn of the century. I

448
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: think the last one was ninety eight. I'm not mistaken.

449
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,160
Speaker 1: So you know, Philly I think has a decent chance

450
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 1: they win. But so I'm curious this is your thus

451
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 1: But to me, the biggest thing that stood out in

452
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 1: this market is that you have Mahomes and Hurts that

453
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 1: plus one plus one thirty right on FANDU and no

454
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 1: one else is shorter than plus sixteen hundred. So it's like,

455
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 1: if you just look at that plus one thirty number,

456
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 1: like the true odds for each quarterback probably should be

457
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 1: closer to like plus one sixty seven plus one seven.

458
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: You take like thirty five percent of each depending on

459
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 1: how much how could have much of a chance to

460
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,360
Speaker 1: think each team has to win, right, But I think the.

461
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 2: Advantage of picking a quarterback in this.

462
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: Market is that you can pair them and now create

463
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 1: a situation where you can you can kind of lock

464
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,239
Speaker 1: in a profit if like a couple of your selections hit.

465
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: For example, you have Hurts at plus one thirty. Aj

466
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 1: Brown is eighteen to one. So our hedging calculator can

467
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: calculate like the optimal you know way that if like

468
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: let's say you put one hundred hours on Hurts, how

469
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 1: much would you have to put on Brown and lock

470
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: in a profit? And you only need to put about

471
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 1: twelve bucks on Brown. So it's like once you if

472
00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 1: you want to roster a quarterback, like you're not getting

473
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 1: a true value in terms of the true odds compared

474
00:21:56,359 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: to the you know, listed odds, but you're getting this

475
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 1: situation where you're saying, Okay, I can kind of play

476
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: with the correlations now, because if I think the Eagles

477
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 1: are going to win, I take Hurts. I have the

478
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 1: most likely got to win the game to win the award,

479
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: and then I can go Brown at eighteen to one,

480
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:13,959
Speaker 1: I can go Smith at thirty wonder one, I can

481
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,880
Speaker 1: go Sanders at twenty five to one, and I'm kind

482
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 1: of locking in a large percentage of the win probability

483
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 1: of the distribution for that specific team. So that's how

484
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: I would kind of go about it. Like I think

485
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: the worst value would be to just take like each

486
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 1: quarterback like Hurts plus one thirty Mahome and no one else.

487
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: I think you have to pick a side either Hurt

488
00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: some Mahomes and then take and then and impair them

489
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: with a couple of long shots. But how are your

490
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: approaching No, I think that's sharp.

491
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 3: And you know, just like you said, taking these quarterbacks,

492
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: there's not much value there, just when you factor in

493
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,959
Speaker 3: the win probability and then the chances of it being

494
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 3: a quarterback. So I like to take swings at some

495
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: of the skill players. And we almost hit to Higgins

496
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 3: last year because we had that play where Joe Mixon

497
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 3: threw the touchdown to T Higgins and then he had

498
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 3: another long touchdown. So that was the perfect storm for

499
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 3: a player like T Higgins a hit. So I'm taking

500
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 3: a swing on a running back and wide receiver this year.

501
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 3: So the running back I'm going to take a swing

502
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: on is Miles Sanders at twenty five to one, And

503
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 3: you kind of hinted at it that you know, it's

504
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 3: been a while since we've seen a running back win MVP,

505
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:20,400
Speaker 3: but this is a game where it could definitely happen.

506
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: You know, the Eagles are run heavy team. I'm already

507
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 3: on Sanders prop to lead the game in rushing yards

508
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 3: at plus one seventy five. And the reason I love

509
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 3: that prop is his usage has been capped all season

510
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 3: due to the Eagles being involved in so many blowouts.

511
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 3: So his rush attempts per share among Eagles running backs

512
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 3: is seventy nine percent when the Eagles are trailing or

513
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 3: winning by fewer than seven points, and it drops to

514
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 3: sixty one percent when the Eagles were up by seven plus,

515
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: and it drops even more than that when they're up

516
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 3: by ten plus fourteen plus. So I think we're going

517
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 3: to get Sanders closer to his true ceiling in this game.

518
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: And I also like to look at previous games, like,

519
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 3: were there any other games this season he would have

520
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 3: won MVP If you look at Week four, he addsbsolutely

521
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 3: would have won MVP. He ran for He rushed twenty

522
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 3: seven times for one hundred and thirty four yards two touchdowns,

523
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 3: caught two passes for twenty two yards. Jalen Hurts only

524
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: through for two hundred and four yards, didn't throw a touchdown,

525
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 3: through a pick, ran six times for thirty yards in

526
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: a touchdown. So I'm saying Miles Sanders would have won

527
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 3: MVP in Week four. Weeks twelve and fourteen he had

528
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 3: a similar line, but I think Hurts probably would have

529
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: won MVP in those weeks. But Sanders would have been

530
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 3: in the discussion at least last week in the Conference championship,

531
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 3: I guess Sanders would have been discussion. He had eleven

532
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 3: carries for forty two yards and two touchdowns, which doesn't

533
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: sound great, But Jalen Hurts only threw for one hundred

534
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 3: and twenty one yards ran eleven times for thirty yards

535
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:47,280
Speaker 3: in a touchdown, so there was a chance Sanders would

536
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 3: have won. So just by looking at that, I think

537
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 3: we're getting some decent value at twenty five to one,

538
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 3: I certainly think he has a clear path to get there.

539
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 3: Right If he just rushes for a couple touchdowns, rushes

540
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 3: for over one hundred yards and Hurts doesn't go off,

541
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 3: it's likely Sanders would win MVP. And on the other side,

542
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 3: it's more of just a complete dart throw. But Mark

543
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 3: has valda is scantling at sixty to one caught my eye.

544
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,239
Speaker 3: I mean MVS for MVP has a nice ring to it,

545
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 3: so I already like that. But he has a path

546
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 3: to a ceiling game as well, with Mikael Hardman out

547
00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 3: Kadarius Tony, Juju Smith Schuster potentially less than one hundred percent.

548
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 3: Even if they do suit up. You know, Markzvalda is scantling.

549
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 3: He has a massive, massive ceiling. He hasn't really flashed

550
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: that this year, but last week was his best game

551
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 3: of the season. He caught six passes for one hundred

552
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 3: and sixty years in a touchdown, likely because all the

553
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 3: receivers went down. So I think they could also take

554
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 3: some shots when he's lined up across from James Bradbury,

555
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 3: who is an excellent corner, but he does not have

556
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 3: the speed to keep up with MVS. So there's a

557
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 3: chance MVS could get a deep ball or two, and

558
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: he has a path at least to hitting MVP. I

559
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 3: would say more often than sixty to one. So I

560
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: just like the value we're getting there. He hasn't shown

561
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 3: it yet this ceiling, but he does have that sort

562
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 3: of upside. So I think he's my favorite long shot

563
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 3: in the MVP market.

564
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that, And you know, I'll mention like

565
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 1: even a guy like Travis Kelsey who's a lot shorter odds,

566
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: like I like the Chiefs receivers because the thing about

567
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 1: the Eagles receivers, right.

568
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 2: Is if like if A J.

569
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: Brown has a big game, let's say, scores two touchdowns,

570
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: that means Jalen Hurts has thrown for two touchdowns. Jalen

571
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: Hurts is probably also gonna run for a decent amount

572
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: of artists and potentially also score a rushing touchdown or

573
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: one of the running Like Philadelphia is probably gonna do

574
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: something on the ground. So it's like at that point,

575
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: I think it kind of flips back to Hurts. But

576
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: with the with the Chiefs, it's like, first of all,

577
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 1: Mahomes already has one, but like the Eagles defense is

578
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 1: so good that in PHILADELPA, the Kansas City offense pass

579
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,920
Speaker 1: catcher wise, it's kind of banged up that like there's

580
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: a chance that Mahomes could play below his averages, but

581
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: one pass catcher could stand out, and so that could

582
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 1: be Mbs like it was last week. I think Kelsey

583
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 1: at sixteen to one is in play. Remember he scored

584
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 1: in five straight postseason game, six of the last seven,

585
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: ninety plus yards in six of the last seven, So

586
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: I think he's squarely in that mix as well. And

587
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: you know, he has that narrative working for him too

588
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: with the whole other thing. But like I kind of

589
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: compare it, you know, last year, and granted the Rams

590
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 1: were bigger favorites. But you had Cooper cup quoesund around

591
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 1: six to one as the best pass catcher in that

592
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: game to you know, most likely to win, and he

593
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 1: did win. But like now you're getting Kelsey at sixteen

594
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: to one, I think that's you know, in terms of okay,

595
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 1: likelihood of tough Kelsey having big games, I think it's

596
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: pretty equal, you know, especially given what Kelsey's done in

597
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: the postseason. So I like him at sixteen to one.

598
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 1: And then there's a long shot kind of going off

599
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: what you said with Sanders. I think even Kenny Gainwell's

600
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: worth a shot at one thirty to one because we've seen,

601
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: you know, now the Eagles like they could get There's

602
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 1: two different game scripts where I think Gainwell could end

603
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: up winning the award. One is if if they happen to

604
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 1: go up early, it's gonna be Sanders, it's gonna be Hurts.

605
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: But if Gamewell kind of mixes in more because they're

606
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: up big, which he has been doing, then he has

607
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: a chance to score you know, multiple touchdowns. He's a

608
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: better pass catcher, and if they're they could also have

609
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 1: a situation where they're in comeback move and that would

610
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:20,919
Speaker 1: kind of Negate, all the Chiefs, like the Chiefs pass catchers, Kelsey, Mahomes,

611
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 1: all those guys could have big games. But then if

612
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 1: the Eagles come back and win, you probably see a

613
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 1: lot of gain. Well, and if he gets like, you know,

614
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: one hundred scrimmage yards and a touchdown or even two,

615
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: and let's say Hurts doesn't run for one, then you're

616
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:34,679
Speaker 1: looking at Gamewell.

617
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 2: So I like, gain what one thirty one?

618
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,959
Speaker 1: I think I think these Eagles backs are really interesting,

619
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 1: and we've kind of seen a script where you know,

620
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: each of the three of them, you know, can kind

621
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: of be the highest most productive player in the game.

622
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: So I think, I know running backs haven't won in

623
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: a long time, but I do like their odds being

624
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: price so high so long.

625
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just going back to Kelsey, I saw I

626
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 3: found two games he absolutely would have won MVP this

627
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 3: year Divisional round against the Bengals. Fourteen catches, ninety eight yards,

628
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: two touchdowns. That was most of the Chiefs receiving production.

629
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 3: So he would have won it over Mahomes.

630
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 2: I guess the Jacks.

631
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah against the Jacks.

632
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 3: Oh against the Jackie Yeah, yeah, that's right. Sorry, this

633
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 3: is this isn't lined up, and Week eleven, he would

634
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 3: have won it. Against the Chargers. He caught six balls

635
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 3: for one hundred and fifteen yards, three touchdowns. That was

636
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 3: most of their production, So I think they would have

637
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 3: given it to him, And there's been some other games

638
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: where he would have been yeah. Yeah, Unfortunately he only

639
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 3: caught seven balls for twenty five yards.

640
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that one's.

641
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: I mean you still yeah yeah the Homes Yeah, well

642
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: so that game, Mahomes threw two ninety two with four touchdowns.

643
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 3: So the fact that every touchdown with Kelsey, I was

644
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 3: going to say he was in the discussion, but we've

645
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: got at least two plus games already that I've identified.

646
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: So I even though sixty one seems low, like you said,

647
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup of six to one last year anyone, So

648
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,719
Speaker 3: I do think Kelsey's offering some value at sixteen to one.

649
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, this is this market is pretty like

650
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 1: usually you see it because I guess because we don't

651
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: usually have such a close spread. You see them a

652
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: little more split, you know, like some shorter odds. But

653
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: everyone is sixteen to one or higher on FanDuel, at

654
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: least after Mahomes and Hurts. So that's a pretty unique

655
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: kind of market we don't usually get, especially because we

656
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: know like seventy percent of the time it's going to

657
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: be one of the two quarterbacks. So it's kind of

658
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: it's a unique market where you can kind of back

659
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: into the different choices.

660
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 3: Like we almost sad with Higgins last year.

661
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, don't even I'm not. I will say this though,

662
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: I don't think there's as much of a slam dunk

663
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: like Higgins.

664
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 2: What was he like fifty to one? Did we get forty.

665
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: Sixty to one? He got to sixty to one.

666
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think there's I don't think there's a

667
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: slam dunk, you know, kind of choice the way there

668
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: was with Higgins. It's more it's more so just that

669
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: there's a lot of guys that are in that you know,

670
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: twenty to or fifty team to one to sixty to

671
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: one range because all the starters are in that range.

672
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: So it's just kind of pick your favorite starter.

673
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: But I do like that Sanders one a lot because

674
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: that we've seen that so many times this year where

675
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: it's just like Sanders will score the first touchdown, Sanders

676
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: might even score the second touchdown, and then he just

677
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: put him on ice. So it's like it's a super Bowl,

678
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: you don't need to put him on ice. If he

679
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 1: scores let's say one earlier, two early even, he might

680
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 1: get a chance to get that third and then that

681
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: would really come over the edge. So I do like that.

682
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the touchdown markets now, another

683
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: favorite of vetters this time of year. Let's start with

684
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 1: anytime touch We'll talk first touchdown. I know you do

685
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: projections for that as well as anytime, so we'll get

686
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: we'll talk that. But let's start with anytime touchdowns For me.

687
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: I know I've talked about this. You know, Travis Kelce

688
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: stands out. He's not like a traditional value in terms

689
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: of my model minus one twenty five. I think that's

690
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: actually probably a little overvalued, as is every player in

691
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: this market. To be clear, like the books, because they

692
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 1: don't usually offer a no I will see if they

693
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:00,440
Speaker 1: do this year.

694
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 2: Sometimes they do for the Super Bowl.

695
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: But I do think this is Kelsey's kind of a

696
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: model breaker when it comes to the postseason. He's scored

697
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: in eleven of his last fourteen postseason games. He scored

698
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: in each of the last five. This guy just does

699
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 1: nothing but find the end zone in the playoffs. Now

700
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 1: you got this narrative with him going up against his brother.

701
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: I just think that if they can, obviously you're playing

702
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: to win, and you're gonna disguise if you need to disguise,

703
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 1: and do what.

704
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: You need to do.

705
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: But if there's anyone that can get a specific player

706
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: a touchdown when they want, it is Andy Reid, and

707
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: then it is Patrick Mahomes, and it is Travis Kelcey,

708
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 1: all of the best you know at their given at

709
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: what they do. So I kind of ignore, you know,

710
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 1: I have it closer to like around fifty to fifty,

711
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: where minus one twenty five is obviously you know, greater

712
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: than that. But I would, you know, just because of

713
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 1: how much he's done in the postseason in terms of

714
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 1: getting in the end zone, I would kind of ignore

715
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: the like the median projection and kind of just say, like,

716
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: if you're looking for anyone to find the end zone

717
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: in this game, I would bet my money on Kelsey.

718
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah. It's also a good hedge with Jody Fortson too, Yeah,

719
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 3: because you figure one of them will score you. Ideally

720
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 3: you'd want forts in the long shot, but if he doesn't,

721
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 3: it's probably because Kelsey scored. They might also both score too,

722
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 3: so there's that going for both of them. But I

723
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: do like the idea of taking Kelsey along of Forts

724
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:19,480
Speaker 3: in ye who will get you later?

725
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: Course, Oh no, make the case for right now?

726
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 3: Well, I was going to make the case you have

727
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 3: him for any time touchdown. I was going to make

728
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 3: the case for first touchout.

729
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 1: Okay, so yeah, so for any time Forts, and he's

730
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 1: twelve to one right now.

731
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 3: Yeah.

732
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: I FanDuel twenty nine percent of his career catches have

733
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: done for touchdowns, thirty eight percent of his targets this

734
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: year have been in the red zone, and he's averaging

735
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: eight routes per game, which is pretty good for a

736
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 1: number three tight end. So essentially, this guy is kind

737
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: of a touchdown maker. He's a red zone pretty much

738
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: a red zone only guy here, and that's that's good

739
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: for any time touchdown and I'm sure you'll make the

740
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: case for first touchdown as well. And one other guy

741
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: that I saw some value on is Zach Pascal. His

742
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 1: anytime touchdown fifteen to one, and he's started to come

743
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 1: on and see his role grow these last few weeks,

744
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: and even not just in the playoffs, but going back

745
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: to the regular season, it's he's his usage has been

746
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: going up and Ques Watkins has been going down. So Pascal,

747
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 1: you know, in the postseason, he's seating about ten routes

748
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: per game, and that's kind of what he's been doing

749
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 1: over the last you know, month or so dating back

750
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 1: to the regular season, and so like at this point,

751
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: you know, if he stays at that usage, which you know,

752
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 1: now we're talking about a handful of games here, you

753
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 1: kind of have to project him for in that neighborhood,

754
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: his median catch now it would be around one catch.

755
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 1: You know, it's a lot of times, you know, when

756
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: he's running, you know, less than ten routes a game,

757
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: talking about a median of a half a catch or

758
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: no catches. But now it's actually, I think one catch.

759
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,279
Speaker 1: And then now you're just looking for him, you know,

760
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 1: for that one catch to be a touchdown, which you

761
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:56,879
Speaker 1: know would happen about six to not six to ten

762
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 1: percent of the time, depending on what you're looking at

763
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: this year or his career average. And he also got

764
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: to carry inside the ten yard line this year, so

765
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: you know, we don't know exactly what they're gonna cook

766
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: up with him, but like if there's anyone that they

767
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: won't expect here, like to catch to catch. The Chiefs

768
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: off guard is Zach Pascal, and he has been seeing

769
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 1: an upstick and playing time, I think because some of

770
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: his run blocking, probably more more than anything. But you

771
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 1: know there there's certainly all the players when you're looking

772
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: at Okay, like even Forts in his twelve to one,

773
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,919
Speaker 1: so even the books are somewhat onto him. Pascal could

774
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 1: run more routes than Forts, and he has been and

775
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: obviously the usage isn't quite the same.

776
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: But here you're just looking for routes.

777
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 1: You're just looking for guys that at least gives you

778
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: a shot because they're going to be on the field.

779
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: And so Pascal is that one other guy. I think

780
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: that that in that deep in the long shots that

781
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 1: could pay off.

782
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's been playing a lot more like in the

783
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 3: red zone offense, like run the goal line. He was

784
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 3: in like you said, run blocking. He's lining up in

785
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 3: the slot and they could have easy you know, run

786
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 3: an RPO where you know Hurts doesn't give to Sanders

787
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,919
Speaker 3: because he sees the cornerback come in and Pascal's wide

788
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 3: open for two hour touchdown like that could be available

789
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 3: to the Eagles based on the personnel they've been using

790
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 3: anyway around the goal line lately.

791
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point.

792
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: And I think I mean even maybe a guy like

793
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 1: Jack Stole as well, then like anyone who lines up

794
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: and usually is playing on those run formations because he

795
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 1: was running so many RPOs those runs could easily turn

796
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: the passes. That's actually really good point.

797
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, so who do you like for first touchdown?

798
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so first touchdown? I was saying, Jody Fortson. At

799
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 3: fifty five to one and sixty to one, you can

800
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: get him in that range. Seems like pretty good value

801
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 3: to me, just based on my model, I'm showing around

802
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 3: fifty being his fair price. But you know, I think

803
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 3: that he would be more likely to score the first

804
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 3: touchdown just because that's going to be more of a

805
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: schemed up play where he probably benefits. I mean, they

806
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 3: could do something where they do that ring around the

807
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 3: Rosie thing, you know, that chaos play. They line up weird,

808
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 3: they're trying to distract the Eagles to cover Kelsey and

809
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 3: Forkson's wide open. I mean, anytimes Forsen scored touchdown, it's

810
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: been you know, some creative play in the red zone.

811
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:07,319
Speaker 3: So I just think that early in the game, that's

812
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 3: probably the more likely time you'd see him schemed up. Plus,

813
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 3: you know the Chiefs are going to be running a

814
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 3: lot of heavy two to three tight end sets. I

815
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 3: think they'll do that early on, So I think that

816
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 3: you just might as well take a shot on him.

817
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 3: Fifty five to one, sixty to one. I like him.

818
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 3: I either price tag to score the first touchdown.

819
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that as well.

820
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,240
Speaker 1: And yeah, I'm hoping.

821
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 2: I'm hoping he finds the end zone.

822
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 1: It's somehow some way in at the Like I said,

823
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 1: first touchdown makes a lot of sense with a guy

824
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 1: like him, because the more you get behind, the more

825
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 1: you probably go with more receivers and this and that. Yeah,

826
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 1: but yeah, So I looked at the just for this year,

827
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 1: the you know, each player how often they scored the

828
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: first touchdown For the Eagles, I found that Jamon Hurts

829
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 1: led them six first touchdowns in seventeen games. So you

830
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: know that's he scored the first touch in about thirty

831
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: five percent of the time for them. So if you

832
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,600
Speaker 1: slice that in half, you looking more like seventeen eighteen percent.

833
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 1: His first touchdown odds are plus eight hundred, so that's

834
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 1: only an eleven percent chance, So you know, I don't

835
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 1: know how much past eight is going to be predictive here,

836
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,479
Speaker 1: but there's nothing really else for us to look at,

837
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: so I do think that's something you know, to kind

838
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,400
Speaker 1: of keep in mind. Six six times out of the

839
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: seventeen games, that's a lot for Jalen Hurt, so he

840
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: would be my pick on the Eagles, and then Kelsey

841
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. I mean, it's been ridiculous. Eight out

842
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 1: of their nineteen games he has gotten the first touchdown,

843
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: so that's about forty two percent of the time. And

844
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 1: there are markets where we convet just the first team

845
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: touchdown too, but he sliced that in half and that's

846
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 1: about twenty one percent. And his first touchdown odds are

847
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:41,759
Speaker 1: plus six fifty, which is about thirteen percent. So you're

848
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: getting a ton of value there if you think that,

849
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: you know, those numbers can hold up, so kind of

850
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: the truk, but it's like a rare place where the

851
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:51,399
Speaker 1: truck is probably undervalue that we's based on what we've

852
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: seen in the past. And then McKinnon has five five

853
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 1: himself in the nineteen games, so it's been kind of

854
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: really concentrated with between Kelsey Ian McKinnon on the Chiefs.

855
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 1: Only other person with more than one is hardman U

856
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 1: with twout nine, and he's he doesn't look like he's

857
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 1: going to play, right. Yeah, if it's not, it's not Kelsey,

858
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: it's McKinnon. So maybe maybe build a little portfolio. And

859
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: you got both of those guys in there some pretty

860
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 1: decent odds.

861
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 3: Yeah. I was going to say that the you know,

862
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,399
Speaker 3: season long data might be a bit skewed because both

863
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 3: teams are fourteen to three, they were more likely to

864
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: score the first touchdown. Now it's pretty even. So this

865
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 3: is for the tho, this is I was gonna say, Yeah.

866
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: I'm already so I'm doing eight out of nineteen for

867
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. And then I divided, Oh right, like yeah,

868
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 1: so this is this is for the team itself. It's

869
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 1: like Kelsea eight out of the nineteen, McKinnon five out

870
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 1: of the night, everybody else six combined.

871
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 3: And these these are the markets. I was gonna mention

872
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 3: that I prefer to bet on because it kind of

873
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 3: takes the luck out of it, you know, I think

874
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 3: it's a coin flip which team will score first. So

875
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 3: I think if you feel really good about these I

876
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 3: actually prefer these markets were you're betting on the first

877
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 3: player from that team to score a touchdown.

878
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you can, like both of them are exist.

879
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 1: Like I was just taking the first for the team

880
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: and then divide all those odds by two to get

881
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: the first of the game. And I'm saying I'm still

882
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 1: showing a ton of value even doing it that way.

883
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: But obviously, yeah, when you look at it for team,

884
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 1: it's it's the same thing.

885
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,439
Speaker 2: But yeah, Kelsey McKinnon and Hurts.

886
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: I've been like the overwhelming favorites or should be the

887
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 1: overwhelming favorites for that market, all right, anyone else touchdowns?

888
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, so for the anytime touchdowns, I'm still showing value

889
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 3: on Ques Watkins at plus seven fifty. And granted he's

890
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 3: a player we always pick on his you know, his floor.

891
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 3: I have him, you know, with a twenty five to

892
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 3: thirty percent chance of not catching a single pass in

893
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 3: this game, so obviously he has a very low floor,

894
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: but he does carry upside and you know, long touchdowns.

895
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 3: So all three of his touchdowns this year have been

896
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 3: on targets twenty plus yards downfield, so he's always a

897
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 3: threat for a long time touchdown that he's probably gonna

898
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 3: have a better path.

899
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: To get there.

900
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 3: In a game where the Eagles are going to be

901
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 3: more pass heavy, you'll probably have to be more aggressive

902
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 3: throwing downfield. So based on his three touchdowns in sixteen games,

903
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 3: his fair price would be closer two plus four thirty here,

904
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 3: So I'm showing quite a bit of value on him

905
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,760
Speaker 3: at plus seven fifty. Again, he's a player I'm only

906
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 3: interested investing in his ceiling. I'm not going to touch

907
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 3: the over on his reception prop or his receiving art prop,

908
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 3: but signing up for his anytime touchdown plus v fifty.

909
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: The other player that does stick out a little bit,

910
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 3: and again it's kind of questionable because I wasn't going

911
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 3: to attack his rushing props. But it's Patrick Mahomes at

912
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:41,000
Speaker 3: plus five hundred. You know, he was clearly limited by

913
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 3: his ankle injury last week, but he was able to

914
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:45,719
Speaker 3: gut it out for you know, the scramble on the

915
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 3: game winning play where he drew that foul. So you know,

916
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 3: I think with the nextra week he's going to be

917
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 3: only healthier. I don't think he's going to run a

918
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 3: ton in this game, but certainly high leverage situations, especially

919
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 3: near the goal line. You know, the Eagles might not

920
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 3: cover him and he could scramble, you know, for a

921
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 3: five yard touchdown. So I think he has sneaky value

922
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 3: of plus five hundred because he's scored a touchdown four

923
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 3: of seventeen games this year. That would translate to a

924
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 3: plus three twenty five price tax. So while I know

925
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 3: that he's probably not gonna one hundred percent here in

926
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 3: the you know, red zone offense, like, I think he's

927
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 3: probably gonna be pretty straight up there. So I think

928
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 3: he's offering some slight value plus five hundred right now.

929
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, It's it's gonna be interesting with mahomes because I

930
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 1: think the markets are going to kind of be all

931
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: over the place and it's it's like the books are

932
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 1: having a hard time setting it. So yeah, I don't

933
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: mind that at all. Actually, you know, like that's the

934
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 1: way I think you want to invest it on my

935
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 1: homes if you think it will be healthier, Because yeah,

936
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: he doesn't necessarily set up for a huge rushing game,

937
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: but if there ever a time for him to you know,

938
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 1: gut it out and put his body on the line,

939
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 1: it would either end a game like we saw that

940
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:53,919
Speaker 1: against the Bengals or in the red zone. All right,

941
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 1: let's go on talk about props. Let's talk about some

942
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 1: of the quarter a half stuff. I don't I haven't

943
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 1: made any bets on quarter half yet, but I do.

944
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: I can't tell you that the first half of the

945
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 1: last sixteen seasons eleven five and one to the under

946
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: averaging going under by three point eight points per game.

947
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 2: The under has gone.

948
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: It's gone under in four in a row, six of

949
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 1: the last seven and eight of the last eleven. Whereas

950
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: the second half is pretty much even so, and in

951
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 1: the first quarter especially I know, tends to kind of

952
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 1: start off a little bit slower. These teams are the

953
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: two of the top three teams and scoring in the

954
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: second quarter, So I think if I was looking for

955
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 1: a slow start, I would go first quarter more so

956
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 1: than second than first half, just because these teams do

957
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 1: kind of start to get going in the second quarter.

958
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: The Phillies averaging twelve just over twelve points the game,

959
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 1: first in the league in the second quarter, and Casey

960
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 1: is third at just over ten a game.

961
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,839
Speaker 3: Did you have any bets? I remember last year, didn't

962
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:56,840
Speaker 3: you have a bet for the first quarter? First half?

963
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:57,439
Speaker 1: Yeah?

964
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 2: I believe I did.

965
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 1: I had some under I think I have been first quarter,

966
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 1: but yeah, this year I'm not as so I do

967
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: think that the like, if you are betting under based

968
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,839
Speaker 1: on the trends, I would go first quarter because that's

969
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: where you see, yeah, start a little slower, but just

970
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:14,839
Speaker 1: these teams have been so good in the second quarter.

971
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 2: But I do think that you know, if you're looking

972
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: at kind.

973
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 1: Of the full game total, you know, then you can

974
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 1: probably the first quarter tend to start slow in the

975
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So if you like the over, you can

976
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 1: probably wait until and try to get a live over

977
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 1: if it starts slow, and then it will probably start

978
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,680
Speaker 1: to pick up, and if there's a chance it could

979
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 1: be you know over the first half total anyway, and

980
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,280
Speaker 1: then you can try to find a live under somewhere

981
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:42,360
Speaker 1: in the second quarter or something like that, second or

982
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 1: third quarter, because then in the second half, Philadelphia, we've

983
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 1: seen them kind of take their foot of the gas

984
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: at times, but they just for whatever the reason, they

985
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 1: have not been quite as good in the second half.

986
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 1: Just fifteenth and third quarter scoring and seventeenth and fourth

987
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:56,919
Speaker 1: quarter scoring. Now, you know, is that taking their foot

988
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: off the gas? Is it?

989
00:44:57,760 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: Yeah?

990
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 2: Defense is adjusting.

991
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: We don't know, but we have seen that kind of

992
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 1: all year. So I think if you're looking for an under,

993
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 1: you know, somewhere in that second quarter is probably the

994
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,479
Speaker 1: way to go to, like look for a live under,

995
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: because again, these teams tend to tend to really turn

996
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: it up in the second quarter, both of them. So

997
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 1: over the last eighteen seasons, the first half dog is

998
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: pen and six or two pushes against the spread, and

999
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,320
Speaker 1: the second half dog is ten and seven.

1000
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: So has been kind of an underdog thing for betting it.

1001
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 2: By half the.

1002
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs, you know, they are the first half dog. I

1003
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: think it's only by what like a half a point

1004
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:33,720
Speaker 1: or a point?

1005
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think it's right now.

1006
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I mean you could even if you'd like

1007
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,120
Speaker 1: the Eagles to win the game, you know, I think

1008
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 1: you would. You could see the Chiefs starting starting fast.

1009
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: You do have you still have Patrick Mahomes and you.

1010
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:48,439
Speaker 2: Know early in the game.

1011
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: The one thing I think about betting kind of the

1012
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: Chiefs early, whether it's you know, first half, first quarter

1013
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,880
Speaker 1: as an underdog, is that the Chief's biggest advantage in

1014
00:45:57,920 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: this game is probably going to be them running against

1015
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: the Eagles. And if the Eagles get up, that's gonna

1016
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 1: be harder to do. You know, that's because of the games.

1017
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: The Chiefs don't usually mess around with, you know, handing

1018
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 1: the ball off when they're down, even like a score

1019
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 1: like they're they're when they're in like a neutral the

1020
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 1: negative games group, they're they're going balls to the wall

1021
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:18,760
Speaker 1: with Mahomes. They know they have the best pat quarterback

1022
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: on the planet. But early in the game, you know,

1023
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,919
Speaker 1: I think that Eagles nineteenth ranked DVO defense against the run.

1024
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 1: I think you are going to see a lot of

1025
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 1: Isaiah Pacheco and things like that. So I do think

1026
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 1: there is more value than just meets the eye with

1027
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 1: the with the you know, kind of dividing the game

1028
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: spread by two in terms of betting on the Chiefs

1029
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: early in the game. In this one, even though the

1030
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: Eagles have they yet the Eagles have kind of slowed

1031
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 1: down the second half. I think that's a lot more

1032
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 1: to do with them kind of taking their foot off

1033
00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: the gas. So maybe looking at twos in the second half,

1034
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 1: but just side, I'd look at the Chiefs a little

1035
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 1: earlier in the game. Let's talk to some player props.

1036
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 1: I know you have a bunch of them that you're

1037
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: betting a lot of I've bet already. The lines have

1038
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 1: moved like crazy, so I won't. I won't bore the

1039
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 1: people with those when they probably won't get the line anyway.

1040
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,560
Speaker 1: So I know you have some new ones? Yeah, yours first?

1041
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: What do you got?

1042
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 3: Yeah? So the first one I found, it's definitely a

1043
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 3: fun one. It's Jalen Hurts over five and a half

1044
00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 3: consecutive completions at minus one twenty five. He's cleared this

1045
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 3: in nine of seventeen games, so this is close to

1046
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 3: a break even bet at worst. But based on my sims,

1047
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 3: I have this closer to a sixty five percent chance

1048
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 3: of hitting. Actually, And because I'm able to create a

1049
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 3: sample size of ten thousand as opposed to seventeen, so

1050
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,240
Speaker 3: I was able to really dig in and Week twelve

1051
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 3: against the Titans, he actually had three separate streaks of

1052
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:52,760
Speaker 3: seven consecutive completions, So if those happened in separate games,

1053
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 3: his distribution would have lined up perfectly with what my

1054
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 3: sim was producing. So I just think it's this is

1055
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: a symptom of the small sample size that he's only

1056
00:48:01,200 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 3: cleared this around fifty two and a half percent of

1057
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,480
Speaker 3: the time, So I'm showing a lot of value here.

1058
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 3: This is mainly math driven, so I think there's some

1059
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:13,400
Speaker 3: sneaky valle on this prop. I bet this up to

1060
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 3: about minus one forty or so. But again, this is

1061
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 3: a fun one where you don't really need to have

1062
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: a take on it, like he can, you know, complete

1063
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 3: two passes on one drive and then the next drive

1064
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 3: complete three more and then the next drive complete the

1065
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 3: first pass of that drive. There's no real gain theory

1066
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 3: behind it, but based on his pregame projections, which I'm

1067
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 3: in line with the market, he should clear this around

1068
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 3: sixty five percent of the time. And the other Jalen

1069
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 3: Hurts prop I found that I love is his first

1070
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:45,280
Speaker 3: rush attempt under four and a half yards at plus

1071
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 3: one ten and his average. So what I did was

1072
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,400
Speaker 3: I just looked at first quarter rush attempts. We're not

1073
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 3: going to see any kneel downs things like that that

1074
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 3: would benefit this market. But his average rush in the

1075
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 3: first quarter went for six point five yards, but his

1076
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 3: median was three point five. You know, we always talk

1077
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: about the difference between average and median, so his average

1078
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 3: is skewed due to you know, the number of times

1079
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:11,800
Speaker 3: he rushes for like a twenty plus yard scramble. Certainly

1080
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 3: that's a possibility here, but on average he's going to

1081
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 3: finish under this. Only sixteen of his thirty six first

1082
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:22,400
Speaker 3: quarter runs went for five plus yards, So you know,

1083
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 3: the best case scenario for this market would be, you know,

1084
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 3: they have a third and one and his first rush

1085
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: attempt is a QB sneak, So there's certainly paths for

1086
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 3: us to hit this, and you know, it's about a

1087
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,320
Speaker 3: fifty six percent chance he says under four and a

1088
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,520
Speaker 3: half his first rush attempt. So I think that the

1089
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 3: fact that we're getting plus odds here is an ice bonus.

1090
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 3: So this is another one they added to my player props.

1091
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's shark, because yeah, it seems like the

1092
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 1: books are just pricing it. You know, a normal rush attempt,

1093
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 1: it's yeah, around you know, four and a half average,

1094
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,959
Speaker 1: But as you mentioned, yeah, there's a big difference between

1095
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: the average and the medium because there's also a big

1096
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 1: difference between like a design run scramble. Right, Like, if

1097
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 1: his first run is a scramble, he's more than likely

1098
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: going over, but he has so many designed to run

1099
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 1: a time, so like you said that he could easily

1100
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: be a quarterback sneak or something like that, where it's

1101
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 1: it's you know it's gonna be more in that three

1102
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: one to three range. So yeah, yeah, I like that.

1103
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: I'll give one and then you can get I know

1104
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 2: you have what two more? Yeah?

1105
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:20,600
Speaker 3: Two more?

1106
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 2: All right, So I'll go. I'll give one that I

1107
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 2: didn't talk about.

1108
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: I don't think on the last pot, but Jerck McKinnon's

1109
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 1: longest rush under eight and a half yards. So I

1110
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 1: got this at nine and a half. There's still value

1111
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 1: on this eight and a half and the more I

1112
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 1: look into it, probably even seven and a half. Looking

1113
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 1: at his season long numbers, he's had a longest run

1114
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,240
Speaker 1: of seven or few of yards in seventy four percent

1115
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: of his games this year, only ten percent of his

1116
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: carries have gone for at least eight yards. Only eight

1117
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: percent of his carries have gone for at least nine yards.

1118
00:50:50,680 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 1: This year, he just has not get that one big

1119
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: run against Houston the walkoff. Since then, he's had a

1120
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 1: long of seven. He's had twenty four carries along of seven.

1121
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 1: He's run for one point eight yards per carry all

1122
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 1: the Meanwhile, Isaiah Pacheco has run for five point two

1123
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 1: yards of carry scored a couple of times on much

1124
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 1: more volume. So like they tried to go with macinnon

1125
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 1: in that first playoff game against Jacksonville, gave him eleven carries,

1126
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:19,359
Speaker 1: he got under thirty yards. It did not work out.

1127
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 1: So last week he saw Pacheco kind of take that

1128
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 1: lead role. So I think McKinnon is going to kind

1129
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: of be in line with his season numbers or you know,

1130
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 1: kind of what we saw last week where he got

1131
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,320
Speaker 1: four carries. His median for the year is four carries,

1132
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 1: and for him to get more than eight and a half,

1133
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 1: like a long run of nine, I'm projecting he would

1134
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 1: need upwards of you know, eight nine carries to get

1135
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:45,360
Speaker 1: to that, just based on his his averages, and again

1136
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: he might he might not even get half that in

1137
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 1: this game.

1138
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 2: So uh yeah, I think that's a good value.

1139
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: And even if seven and a half he still went

1140
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: under seventy four percent of the time, I do think

1141
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 1: that that's there's a little bit of noise. I think

1142
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 1: the number would be higher, but at eight and a half,

1143
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 1: I think you can still feel pretty confident of him

1144
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: going under you know, probably about sixty percent of the time.

1145
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, like the McKinnon longest run under because I

1146
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 1: think he kind of benefits from probably not getting that

1147
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 1: many carries as he was getting at certain points of

1148
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 1: the year.

1149
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it sounds like Clyde Edwards Hilaire will definitely

1150
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 3: play in the Super Bowl, right, So yeah that I mean,

1151
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 3: maybe he doesn't see any touches, but either way, his

1152
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 3: presence certainly lowers McKinnon's floor end ceiling, which this market

1153
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:34,080
Speaker 3: kind of captures. So another reason why I like this under.

1154
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I mean, I think everyone kind of

1155
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: looks at that Eagles run dyance is okay, it'd a

1156
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:39,560
Speaker 1: weak spot, but they first of all, I have been

1157
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 1: a little better since they know got Sue and Joseph.

1158
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 2: But McKinnon just I don't know it, just it hasn't happened.

1159
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,040
Speaker 1: For him in a run game. So it's like, yeah,

1160
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 1: got to go under it with him. But what do

1161
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:53,200
Speaker 1: you got for he got another couple of props? What

1162
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 1: do you got? Yeah?

1163
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 3: So I have one more Eagles prop and that's Dallas

1164
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 3: god her longest reception over eighteen and a half yards.

1165
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,200
Speaker 3: I wasn't gonna get through the Super Bowl without betting

1166
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:05,799
Speaker 3: on Dallas Goddard. So I'm projecting him with about a

1167
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 3: sixty one percent chance to clear this, and that's notable

1168
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 3: since I'm a bit under his other markets. I'm only

1169
00:53:12,280 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 3: projecting him around four point three receptions and the market

1170
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,239
Speaker 3: has him closer to four point eight or so. So

1171
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 3: I just thought that was notable that I'm under projecting

1172
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 3: him in other markets.

1173
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 1: Do you think you're lower because I think I have him?

1174
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 1: Let me see, I think, yeah, I think I noticed that.

1175
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: I think you had him a little lower than I

1176
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 1: had him as well. Yeah, I have him four point six,

1177
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 1: so I'm not asiz as the market. But yeah, how

1178
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 1: you get why are you still on the actual reception volume?

1179
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 3: Beats me? Let's see.

1180
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:41,759
Speaker 1: Oh you know why?

1181
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: I know why?

1182
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 3: I always off the top of my head, I have

1183
00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 3: no idea. I rely on my model. But I think

1184
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 3: it's because his his catch rate this year has been insane. Okay,

1185
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 3: he's caught eighty three percent of his targets, so I'm

1186
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 3: projecting him closer to seventy five to seventy six percent.

1187
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 3: Obviously he's a really good tight end, but that that

1188
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:06,840
Speaker 3: catch rate's probably unsustainable. So that's one reason I know

1189
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,920
Speaker 3: his A dot's been pretty low the past few games.

1190
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 3: But I have it going up closer to his season average.

1191
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 3: So there's there's a few things at play here. But

1192
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 3: again I'm not off by much, right, if we're talking

1193
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 3: about I have it.

1194
00:54:19,920 --> 00:54:21,799
Speaker 1: I have it at seventy nine. I was catch right

1195
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 1: at seventy nine, so I'm looking at it. Okay, Yeah,

1196
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 1: I add about ninety five of regression catches, like we

1197
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:31,520
Speaker 1: average catches, So I guess whatever, whatever that's going on,

1198
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: his catch rate is so high that that it's it's

1199
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:39,279
Speaker 1: kind of overtaking, right that we average. But yeah, so yeah,

1200
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:41,439
Speaker 1: longest reception over each Yeah. Yeah.

1201
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,520
Speaker 3: So like, even though I'm slightly lower than you and

1202
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 3: the market, I'm giving him a sixty one percent chance

1203
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 3: to clear this. He's clear this fifty seven percent of

1204
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:53,879
Speaker 3: the time this year. So given this is a game

1205
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: script where the Eagles will probably throw a bit more,

1206
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 3: it'll be a closer game, maybe a trailing one, I

1207
00:54:59,640 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 3: think my sixty one percent projection makes more sense. So

1208
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,359
Speaker 3: I I, you know, we're getting minus one oh five

1209
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 3: on FanDuel, so I love the value we're getting, and

1210
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 3: I bet this up to about minus one thirty or so.

1211
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 3: But again, this is one of those markets that I

1212
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,320
Speaker 3: caught my eye when I dug in. I was showing

1213
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 3: a ton of value on this, all right, and I

1214
00:55:19,600 --> 00:55:21,320
Speaker 3: got one more with it, And yeah, I got a

1215
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 3: cheap prout. This one's kind of fun. This is paste

1216
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 3: based purely on math. It's Isaiah Pachecko to finish with

1217
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: exactly twelve Russi attempts at nine to one odds, and

1218
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:37,600
Speaker 3: I'm projecting Pachecko for eleven point seven rush attempts. And

1219
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 3: I always stressed, you know, last week I liked Miles

1220
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 3: Sanders under fourteen and a half Russia attempts. I always

1221
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 3: say every rush attempt in this market is critical, And

1222
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,439
Speaker 3: when when you look at Pachecko's distribution, you know there's

1223
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 3: a fifty three percent chance he finishes between nine and

1224
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:59,440
Speaker 3: thirteen carries, and eleven and twelve are the more likely outcome.

1225
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,760
Speaker 3: So I'm just showing a ton of value on twelve exactly.

1226
00:56:03,120 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 3: I have a fair line closer to plus seven seventy.

1227
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 3: So I just like the value we're getting at plus

1228
00:56:09,200 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 3: nine hundred. This isn't like a full unit player or something,

1229
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,760
Speaker 3: but it's definitely worth a smaller bet. And I think

1230
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 3: you know the fact that, like you said that the

1231
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 3: Chiefs will probably start a little bit more run heavy,

1232
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 3: and then they'll just probably get more passive if the

1233
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 3: game goes on. Like, I like the paths that we get,

1234
00:56:25,840 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 3: Pacheco finishing exactly at twelve rush attempts, So again, love

1235
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,400
Speaker 3: the value we're getting at plus nine hundred here finished

1236
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 3: at twelve twice this season, including once in the playoffs.

1237
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:38,280
Speaker 2: Yep, and my projection.

1238
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,399
Speaker 1: You said you have them eleven to seven nine, So I'm.

1239
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 3: Actually, oh, you would probably show this closer to like

1240
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:47,640
Speaker 3: I want to say, like plus seven forty?

1241
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:50,640
Speaker 2: Are we doing? Is this the normal distribution? That? Like,

1242
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:51,680
Speaker 2: how are we no?

1243
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 3: This is a poison Oh yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, pois

1244
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 3: on distribution. But the fact that you're closer to twelve

1245
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 3: exactly means you'd show way more value on this than

1246
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 3: I do. But either way, Like, so eleven's the more

1247
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 3: likely outcome, but we're not getting as good odds on it.

1248
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 3: So I just showed a ton of value up plus

1249
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 3: nine hundred here. Nice?

1250
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: All right, Well there you go, Isaiah A checko exactly

1251
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: twelve carriers. I like I could see that that's.

1252
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 3: Gonna be a fun sweat with fifty six, right, you

1253
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 3: know something else yeah, yeah, all right.

1254
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 1: Let's let's close it up and let's talk some uh

1255
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 1: some some exotics. I think the big one everyone always

1256
00:57:29,800 --> 00:57:30,960
Speaker 1: wants to talk about is a gatorade.

1257
00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 2: I'm curious just you have any thoughts on this.

1258
00:57:32,880 --> 00:57:35,120
Speaker 1: But the way I'm looking at it is, there's been

1259
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: in the last twenty two years. Uh, there's been no

1260
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: gatorade four times. That's eighteen percent of the time. So

1261
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 1: I actually think there's value on none at eleven to

1262
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: one because that, you know, that's that's implying like single

1263
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 1: digit odds there where it's more closer to twenty percent.

1264
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 1: So I think I think I'm going with the nun

1265
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep it consistent, you know, all oh yeah,

1266
00:57:57,360 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 1: there's no fun unders. Just we're gonna go with the

1267
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:03,440
Speaker 1: no gatorade at eleven to one. What do you think?

1268
00:58:03,680 --> 00:58:07,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, the numbers add up. I am not tackling

1269
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 3: this gatorade problem again. I'm just tailing you. I mean

1270
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 3: the Chiefs when they did win it, what what gave?

1271
00:58:15,360 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 3: What color was it? Do we know?

1272
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 1: Like I can pull it up real quick if there

1273
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 1: was any kind of like orange orange?

1274
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 2: Orange was orange?

1275
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 3: So it's been okay, last year was blue.

1276
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 2: The year before it was.

1277
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: Blue with the Bucks and the orange for the Chiefs,

1278
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,480
Speaker 1: blue with the Patriots. But I was reading in the

1279
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 1: Athletic they had they interviewed one of the Gatorade people,

1280
00:58:34,440 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 1: I believe, and they were saying that, like they they

1281
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:40,320
Speaker 1: randomize it and there's usually like three ones, so really

1282
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 1: the best thing to do is just take the longest odds,

1283
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: which are none. Oh okay, I think purple is the

1284
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 1: next at like plus seven fifty. Like, just take the

1285
00:58:50,200 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 1: longest odds if you're betting this mark, because they're not

1286
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,240
Speaker 1: doing it by like a lot of people are like,

1287
00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:55,960
Speaker 1: well blue isn't three of the last four, so there's

1288
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 1: value on blue. No, it's they're not doing it by

1289
00:58:58,640 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 1: team color. They're just just literally randomizing it. So it's

1290
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 1: either none or just take the best color that that

1291
00:59:06,080 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 1: would be.

1292
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 3: I I'm you know, I'm gonna join you on this, nun. Yeah,

1293
00:59:10,400 --> 00:59:13,480
Speaker 3: I just Sirianni runs such a tight ship. He's not

1294
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 3: gonna deal. He's not gonna deal with bullshit, you know,

1295
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 3: pouring gatorade or he's probably gonna tell him don't do that.

1296
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 3: And you know, if any Reid I don't, they might

1297
00:59:21,840 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 3: not even do the gatorade. They might bring out a cheeseburger, right, right,

1298
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 3: other ways of celebrating candy, Right, I think people are

1299
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,760
Speaker 3: gonna get more creative than just dumping a tub of

1300
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 3: gatorade on the coach. So I think it's even more

1301
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:36,919
Speaker 3: likely going forward that none's gonna happen because they're gonna

1302
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 3: have some alternate way of celebrating.

1303
00:59:38,920 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1304
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:41,280
Speaker 1: So the last time none happened with twenty seventeen with

1305
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:43,760
Speaker 1: the Patriots, and it has happened more often than not

1306
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 1: with the Patriots, go figure because Bichick. But at the

1307
00:59:46,800 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 1: time before it was twenty thirteen, it was the Ravens,

1308
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:51,920
Speaker 1: So that's not the Patriots, So it's like it's happened,

1309
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 1: it's happened.

1310
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well Belichick probably told them like, don't pour gatory

1311
00:59:55,840 --> 00:59:56,800
Speaker 3: on correct.

1312
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:58,959
Speaker 2: So you know, we'll see, we'll see.

1313
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:01,200
Speaker 1: But I yeah, just think what I'm trying to say

1314
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 1: is there's no real way to predict this market. Yeah,

1315
01:00:03,680 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 1: so I think you can kind of take advantage of

1316
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:07,680
Speaker 1: the fact that the odds are different for the different

1317
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 1: colors and for none, and just bet on you know

1318
01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 1: one of the best odds, which is going to be

1319
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,040
Speaker 1: none more often than not, and then for colors, it's

1320
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: usually purple. All right. That is going to wrap it

1321
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 1: up for our Super Bowl fifty seven propapalooza. Thank you

1322
01:00:23,320 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 1: for hanging with us all season long, and you know

1323
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,919
Speaker 1: we really appreciate it. As a reminder, if you're looking

1324
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 1: for our main betting preview show that where we break down,

1325
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 1: you know, side the total, all that stuff, Stucky and

1326
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 1: I have that one that's up right now. Came out

1327
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,959
Speaker 1: on Monday, and of course stay tuned this week later

1328
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 1: for our best Bets episode with Brandon Anderson, Vegas Refund

1329
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 1: and Jill Gallant. Or you can find Sean on Twitter

1330
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 1: at the Underscore Odds Maker. You can find the actress Raybon.

1331
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 1: You can find us at those same handles on the

1332
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app. Hope. It's been a

1333
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:01,920
Speaker 1: great season for you guys, and we'll catch you on

1334
01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 1: the flip side.

1335
01:01:02,760 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 4: Let's get this money.

1336
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1337
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1338
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler