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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: But this one is good. All right.

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Speaker 1: Here we got growing into speak.

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Speaker 2: We're saying it's a catch touch star. We see most

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Speaker 2: gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make much.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabai if you want

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Speaker 3: to pass.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Helloup, and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays

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Speaker 3: here on the Action Network podcast. I'm your host, Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson here with Raheem Palmer, getting you ready for a

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Speaker 3: week eighteen. We made it to week eighteen. We are

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Speaker 3: ready to wrap up the regular season head to the postseason. Rahiem,

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Speaker 3: I'm ready for some playoff football.

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Speaker 1: You ready, Yes, I'm very I'm extremely ready for playoff football.

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Speaker 1: Look this week seventeen, Week eighteen stuff with all the

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Speaker 1: COVID news and you know, teams playing for something, not

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Speaker 1: playing for anything.

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Speaker 2: I'm ready for some real football.

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Speaker 3: I am too, though, I must say I don't mind this,

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Speaker 3: you know, normally Week seventeen, Week eighteen. This year, I

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Speaker 3: like this week as a better There's a lot of edges.

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Speaker 3: If you can get it, you can get it on

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Speaker 3: the wrong side.

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Speaker 2: Too.

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Speaker 3: But if you if you get that motivation factor, if

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Speaker 3: you look at where the lines really get wonky, and

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Speaker 3: the books don't necessarily know what to do here, or

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Speaker 3: maybe they do, and they're taking a little bit more

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Speaker 3: advantage of the public. So we gotta really be sharp

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Speaker 3: this week.

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Speaker 2: We'll get into that.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna look at the playoff picture before we get

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Speaker 3: into the games. We'll do our three game breakdowns like usual.

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Speaker 3: Before that, don't forget rate and subscribe to the podcast

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Speaker 3: Apple and Spotify now where you can, and of course

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Speaker 3: Odds tod theyre from BETMGM, the official odds for Better

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Speaker 3: of the Action Network podcast. So we'll start with the

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Speaker 3: playoff picture NFC much cleaner. In the NFC, we know

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Speaker 3: the Packers are the one seed. Their game is pretty

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Speaker 3: much meaningless.

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Speaker 2: This week.

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Speaker 3: I think they'll arrest. We'll see what happens. We know

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Speaker 3: Dallas and Tampa have locked up the divisions and the

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Speaker 3: Rams or Cardinals will be the other division winner. They're

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Speaker 3: both in already. We know the Eagles are in. They'll

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Speaker 3: be the six or seven seed. So all that we

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Speaker 3: really have to do is if the Niners win or

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Speaker 3: the Saints lose, then the forty nine ers get that

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Speaker 3: last spot. If the Niners lose and the Saints win,

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Speaker 3: then the Saints are in So question for you on

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Speaker 3: the NFC Rahiim, we don't know any of the matchups yet.

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Speaker 3: All we know is Green Bay is the one seed.

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Speaker 3: Is there a clear NFC favorite to you right now?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think you have to give it to

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Speaker 1: the Packers. I mean, right now, all of these teams

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Speaker 1: are flowed. We look at the Cowboys, obviously they're a

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Speaker 1: division winner coming out of the East. Their defense has

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Speaker 1: been good, but the offense has just been a complete mess.

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Speaker 1: And even with their defense being good, we've seen last

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Speaker 1: week that Kyler Murray can neutralize their passwords, so they

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Speaker 1: could be exposed a little bit. When you look at

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Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, obviously they lose Chris Godwin, they

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Speaker 1: lose Antonio Brown who's been officially cut as of now.

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Speaker 1: They've been having They've been aail with stuff all throughout

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Speaker 1: the secondary. It just had a ton of injuries. The

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Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals and the Rams, their division, the NFC West

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Speaker 1: is going to be decided this week. So the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: with the win and the Los Angeles Rams lost they're

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Speaker 1: going to clinch the division, whereas the Rams they need

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Speaker 1: they need to just win to win the division. And

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Speaker 1: if you look at those two teams, both of those

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Speaker 1: teams are.

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Speaker 2: Flawed as well.

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Speaker 1: The Rams they can't run the ball, Matthew Stafford is

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Speaker 1: turning the.

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Speaker 2: Ball over at will. And the Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Do we really trust Cliff Kingsbury Like I mean, I

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Speaker 1: know they beat the Cowboys last week, So you look

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Speaker 1: at the landscape of this the NFC, it's tough to

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Speaker 1: go on Lambeau.

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Speaker 2: Anyway.

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Speaker 1: We've spoken at length about how Lambo probably has the

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Speaker 1: best home field advantage in football.

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Speaker 2: I have it around four to four and a half

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Speaker 2: points just for home Phil.

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Speaker 1: The one thing I will say, if you can run

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Speaker 1: the ball, you're a quit to actually deal with this

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Speaker 1: Packers team.

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Speaker 2: But all the good run offenses are in the AFC,

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Speaker 2: So you know, you got to look at the Packers

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Speaker 2: as Yeah.

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Speaker 3: It's very interesting for all the reasons you said, We've

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Speaker 3: got these five NFC teams, the same five we've known

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Speaker 3: for half the season now. They're all flawed though, so

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Speaker 3: to me, I don't necessarily know what the value is

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Speaker 3: until we get a bracket, because I think It's gonna

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Speaker 3: be very matchup dependent here, and you know, it's very

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Speaker 3: important to not just say, well, this team is the best,

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Speaker 3: they're gonna win, because you might run into the wrong

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Speaker 3: run defense or pass defense, or you know, the wrong

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Speaker 3: coaching matchup, that sort of thing.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 3: I think the Packers have to be considered the favorite.

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Speaker 3: They got one less game to play, but even then,

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure the Eagles are gonna be a tough matchup.

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Speaker 3: If the Saints get in, I'm not sure they're going

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Speaker 3: to be a tough matchup. So I don't know that

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Speaker 3: the bye week is necessarily as huge advantage as it

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Speaker 3: could have been, though. The big thing for the Packers.

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Speaker 3: They might get back Jyre Alexander, they might get back

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Speaker 3: David Baktiari. Finally, these names, these stars on their team,

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Speaker 3: we've been waiting on. So I think they are the

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Speaker 3: They have to be considered the favorite. But there's so

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Speaker 3: much the betting favorite that I don't know that there's

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Speaker 3: real value there. I do have a sleep where I

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Speaker 3: like in NFC, we're gonna come back to that later.

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Speaker 3: Over in the AFC a little bit messier there, so

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Speaker 3: no seeds are locked yet, but We've got a bunch

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Speaker 3: of teams clenched. If the Titans win, they are the

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Speaker 3: one seed if they win in Houston. If they don't,

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Speaker 3: then the Chiefs are the one seed. If they win

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Speaker 3: in Denver, that's on Saturday. If both of those teams lose,

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Speaker 3: the Bengals or the Patriots are still alive to possibly

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Speaker 3: grab that one seed. It looks like the Bengals are

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Speaker 3: likely resting Joe Burrow and some of their other starters.

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Speaker 3: That likely if they lose, locks them into the three

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Speaker 3: or the four seed. There, the Bills win their division.

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Speaker 3: If they get the win against the Jets, they're huge

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Speaker 3: favorites there. If the Bills lose and the Patriots win,

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Speaker 3: Patriots get the division and Bills drop into a wild card.

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Speaker 3: And then, basically, in all most likely scenarios, we have

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Speaker 3: two spots up for grabs. One of them goes to

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Speaker 3: the Colts. If they just beat the Jaguars, Colts are

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Speaker 3: basically winner, go home. There's one far off scenario where

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Speaker 3: they can stay around other wise, and if the Colts

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Speaker 3: beat the Jaguars, then Sunday Night goes to Chargers Raiders.

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Speaker 3: That's the big one. They say it for us We're

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Speaker 3: gonna talk about that game a second. If the Colts

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Speaker 3: to lose to the Jaguars, then Baltimore Pittsburgh comes in play,

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Speaker 3: and we're gonna cover that game for you too. So

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Speaker 3: other than those wildcard teams that we don't really know

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Speaker 3: what's going on yet, we've got those five locked in teams. Again,

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Speaker 3: is there one of those top five AFC teams that

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Speaker 3: you've got your eye on?

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Speaker 2: As far as the AFC? I still think that.

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Speaker 1: To me, I think the Kansas City Chiefs are just

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Speaker 1: the team to be. Look, I mean, I know they

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Speaker 1: didn't get the number one seed, and I know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to go and they're gonna have to actually

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Speaker 1: go on a road at some point. But to me,

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Speaker 1: they've been playing the best football by anybody the last

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Speaker 1: seven eight weeks, and then I think they caught a

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Speaker 1: raw deal against Cincinnati last week with a lot of

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Speaker 1: the penalties. So to me, I think they're a team

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Speaker 1: to be.

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Speaker 2: What are you thinking?

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Speaker 3: So I actually surprised myself. I kind of went through yes,

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Speaker 3: and I said, Okay, well, what if these teams win

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Speaker 3: this weekend, what does that bracket look like. I did

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Speaker 3: that with like three or four brackets on each side.

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Speaker 3: I came out with the Bills as my AFC team

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Speaker 3: on all the snares I did. And here's the reason

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Speaker 3: I noticed. It's matchups. I don't believe in the Titans.

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Speaker 3: I don't really care who they play. They're gonna lose

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Speaker 3: to somebody for me, So to me, the Bills match

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Speaker 3: up well against the Patriots. We just saw that game

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Speaker 3: a couple of times recently. The one more recently we

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Speaker 3: saw Buffalo is just better. This is a better team

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Speaker 3: than the Patriots, more talent, and I like how the

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Speaker 3: Bills match up against the Chiefs. This is the team

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Speaker 3: Buffalo built was to play the Chiefs and beat them,

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Speaker 3: and so I think Buffalo there is a little bit

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Speaker 3: of some odds there. Of course, you want them to

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Speaker 3: beat the Jets and get the home game because they're

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Speaker 3: gonna a little bit easier path there. But they're gonna

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Speaker 3: be the Jets if you don't be the Jets in

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Speaker 3: this spot. Maybe I don't like the Bills after all,

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Speaker 3: but I do think Buffalo matches up well. I don't

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Speaker 3: necessarily love Buffalo if they have to play Indy. Buffalo

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Speaker 3: got blown out by the Colt so month ago, so

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Speaker 3: I may wait a little bit, but I do think

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Speaker 3: there's some value there. I love to look at, you know,

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Speaker 3: once the bracket comes out, I may look to play

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Speaker 3: that super Bowl matchup and go Bills somebody in the NFC,

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe Bill's Packers and Bills one other team

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Speaker 3: and give myself a couple outs there. I just like

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Speaker 3: how the matchups look for Buffalo, and I think that

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Speaker 3: their style of play. Maybe it's condu so the Chiefs

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Speaker 3: I think are the better team. For sure, we agree

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Speaker 3: on that the Chiefs are the favorite, but I do

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Speaker 3: like Buffalo there.

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Speaker 1: For me, I just don't trust Josh Allen. Josh Allen's

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Speaker 1: got to prove it to me when it matters. Look,

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Speaker 1: when you look at this Buffalo team, they've done a

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Speaker 1: great job at beating up on bad teams, and the

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Speaker 1: Jets are a bad team, so I expect them to

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Speaker 1: fully go out there and cover take this team into

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Speaker 1: deep waters.

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Speaker 2: And drown them.

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Speaker 1: But when they play superior competition teams were winning records.

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Speaker 1: They've struggled all year. So I just don't trust this team,

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Speaker 1: and they got to prove it to me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's very fair, Josh. I certainly have not exactly

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Speaker 3: been his biggest fan over the years, But I don't

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Speaker 3: know that I really trust Paton Mahomes like I used

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Speaker 3: to trust him. Right now he's a little bit down

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Speaker 3: a level. So I just it feels like the AFC

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Speaker 3: is open. The Chiefs are playing well, but are not

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Speaker 3: the juggernaut that they have been at times, and it

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Speaker 3: feels like Buffalo is in the mix enough to have

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Speaker 3: a shot there.

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Speaker 2: So we will see.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll talk more about that bracket plenty in

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Speaker 3: the future weeks. Our three games today, we want to

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Speaker 3: focus on games where we know both teams want to try,

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Speaker 3: We know both teams are in on this. So the

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Speaker 3: big one that we know for sure is basically a

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Speaker 3: playoff game. Sunday Night, Chargers Raiders. We're going to Vegas,

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Speaker 3: first season in Las Vegas, with all the fans there.

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Speaker 3: The Chargers come in as road favorites minus three. Right now,

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Speaker 3: I think you like the Chargers here? Are you on

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles?

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Speaker 2: Yes? I am on a Chargers.

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Speaker 1: I mean, when you look at this Raiders team, they've

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Speaker 1: been really, really fortunate. I've actually been playing them, you

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Speaker 1: guys been following the podcast. I've been playing them the

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Speaker 1: last couple of week weeds. But it's just like, when

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Speaker 1: you look at this team, they've just been so fortunate.

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Speaker 1: I mean, first things first, they have a minus sixty

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Speaker 1: eight point differential. They scored over seventeen points. It's two

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Speaker 1: times in the last nine games without with the absence

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Speaker 1: of Henry Ruggs. And obviously you lose John Gruden. He's

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Speaker 1: the guy who's calling plays. But it's just like they

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Speaker 1: had this three game winning streat. You face the Browns

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Speaker 1: with Nicholas Mullins and half of the roster missing due

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Speaker 1: to COVID, and you need a last second field goal

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Speaker 1: just to win that game.

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Speaker 2: Then you played Drew Lock.

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Speaker 1: Andrew Lock. I mean, this guy's just turnover prone. He

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Speaker 1: played a clean game. And look, I mean nobody's expected

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Speaker 1: much from Andrew Lock. So I mean they really couldn't

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Speaker 1: get much done outside of the Bradley Chubb interception at

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Speaker 1: the end of the half, which pretty much got the

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Speaker 1: Broncos some points. Craiders dominated that game, and then they

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Speaker 1: play again Indianapolis coach team which had major COVID issues

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Speaker 1: Carson Winston practicing entire week. At one point, this line

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Speaker 1: had gone from plus nine all the way down to

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half. You had guys on the

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Speaker 1: offensive line missing, only for them to return right before

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Speaker 1: the game, and they sneak out of they be able

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Speaker 1: to sneak out a win. So to me, I just

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Speaker 1: think these two teams are These are two teams in

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Speaker 1: different classes and the Raiders have been forcing it. So

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Speaker 1: this is a great bilo spot for the Chargers. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: So another weird thing. Those last three games that the

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Speaker 3: Raiders won, they lost the turnover battle seven to zero.

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Speaker 3: They have not forced a turnover in the last four games.

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Speaker 3: Turn it over a bunch, and they're still winning. The Raiders.

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Speaker 3: To me, I'm just my caution, red flags are up

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Speaker 3: on this game. Absolutely, I agree with you. The Chargers

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Speaker 3: are better. The Chargers are much better on paper. The

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Speaker 3: Chargers should win. The Raiders pass defense.

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Speaker 2: I think is beatable.

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Speaker 3: Justin Herbert, this is your game, buddy, Justin go get him.

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Speaker 3: If he shows up and plays a good game, it's

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Speaker 3: a wrap. The Raiders don't have a chance because their

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Speaker 3: secondary can't hold up with him. But I just my

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Speaker 3: gut feeling is, look, we know the Raiders, they're a

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Speaker 3: slow starting team, but they close really strong. Derek Carr

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Speaker 3: that's been his thing over the years. He's he's kind

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Speaker 3: of that Matt Stafford of the AFC, where his teams

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Speaker 3: need the comeback, but he's able to get the ball

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Speaker 3: moving late. The Chargers are not a team that I trust.

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Speaker 3: They're not a team they do the one of us trust.

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Speaker 3: We've done that all year long. There's still the Chargers.

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Speaker 3: They're the worst run defense in the league, so we

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Speaker 3: know that they can't just put the game away. They're

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Speaker 3: they're They're a team that because of their aggression and

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Speaker 3: because of the way they play, we like it, we

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Speaker 3: agree with it, but it leaves the door open, like

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Speaker 3: I could see a game where the Chargers just show

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Speaker 3: up as the A plus Chargers and win this by

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Speaker 3: twenty four and it's a snoozer. Absolutely, that's how much

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Speaker 3: better that they are. But Mike Gut says the Raiders

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Speaker 3: are gonna hang around and have a shot here. I

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Speaker 3: don't know the gonna win. I don't want them to win.

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Speaker 3: I want to see the Chargers in the playoffs. That's

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Speaker 3: a much mornescing playoff game to me. I don't want

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Speaker 3: to watch the Raiders anymore. This is the end of

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Speaker 3: the Raiders for me. Yeah, But I think for me,

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Speaker 3: if I play the Chargers, I would play the money line.

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Speaker 3: I don't trust them to necessarily cover the three, especially

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Speaker 3: the way Staley is aggressive and going for two and

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Speaker 3: two point conversions and that sort of thing. That two,

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Speaker 3: that three, even the one, those are numbers I want

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Speaker 3: to get. So if I play the Chargers, I want

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Speaker 3: the money line. I think I might be looking to

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Speaker 3: live bet the Raiders, assuming the Chargers get the lead,

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Speaker 3: and live bet the Raiders at a bigger plus number,

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Speaker 3: maybe a plus six or seven, maybe even past that,

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Speaker 3: just to hang around to keep it close. My gut

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Speaker 3: just says, we got a weird one coming here and

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Speaker 3: a home game in Vegas. This feels like the Raiders

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Speaker 3: have a shot here.

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Speaker 2: I just think that the Chargers have had a lot

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Speaker 2: of bad Look.

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Speaker 1: I mean when you look at look at the injuries

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Speaker 1: that they've hit, and look, obviously they've lost against the Texans,

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Speaker 1: and that was a game in which they had a

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Speaker 1: ton of COVID losses. Obviously they blew a game against

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They don't blow those games. They are already

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, and last week they had their full

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Speaker 1: first team secondary on the field for just the third

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Speaker 1: time all season, so they're finally getting healthy. I know

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Speaker 1: the defense rates twenty eighth in EPA per drive and

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Speaker 1: thirty one success rate, but I think that could be

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Speaker 1: a little bit better here against this Raiders team, which

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Speaker 1: really their offense hasn't been great. So it's just I

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Speaker 1: just think this is the perfect spot for the Chargers

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Speaker 1: to come up big. I mean, we look at the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're just twentieth and EPA per play thirteenth

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Speaker 1: is success rate Offensively, this Raiders team could be beaten

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Speaker 1: defensively as well. They're eighteen and success rate. So I

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Speaker 1: just think you're getting a better team with the Chargers

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Speaker 1: in this spot. I mean, obviously the raate. The Chargers

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Speaker 1: already blew this team out twenty eight to fourteen, and

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Speaker 1: that was a better Raiders team.

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Speaker 3: So let me give you my angle on this scam.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to side here. I just I don't

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Speaker 3: trust enough either way. If the Chargers were at a

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Speaker 3: minus two and I can maybe push the two win

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Speaker 3: with the field goal, I'd feel better minus three. There's

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Speaker 3: it's just I just don't feel great about it. But

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Speaker 3: I don't love the Raiders. I don't really want my

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Speaker 3: money on the Raiders, because I don't want to put

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Speaker 3: my money on Raiders. And suddenly the Chargers come out

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Speaker 3: fourteen tohings first quarter and look like they should look,

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Speaker 3: and I'll feel like an idea. Here's my angle. You know,

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Speaker 3: I don't play a lot of totals. I like the

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Speaker 3: over here. Chargers have scored twenty eight or more in

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Speaker 3: five straight games. They're averaging thirty three point eight per

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Speaker 3: game during that stretch. Chargers have allowed at least twenty

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Speaker 3: one points in eleven of the last twelve games they've played,

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Speaker 3: So they're gonna give up points. We know the charge

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Speaker 3: is gonna score. They're not just gonna lay an egg.

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Speaker 3: So I think we might get like a thirty one

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Speaker 3: to twenty eight, you know that like a higher scoring game,

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Speaker 3: more of a shootout back and forth. I guess my

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Speaker 3: gut is, this feels like some team is going to

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Speaker 3: have the ball at the end of the game, the

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Speaker 3: chance to win. And that's why I'm a little cautious

355
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Speaker 3: about the Chargers. Suddenly you got the home crowd in Vegas,

356
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Speaker 3: you might get a rough involved and a key penalty throw.

357
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Speaker 3: I just I feel like something weird could happen. But

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Speaker 3: I like the over forty nine and a half. It's

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Speaker 3: the highest on the slate. Normally you're thinking under in

360
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Speaker 3: a playoff atmosphere, but both offenses are clearly better than

361
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Speaker 3: both defenses here, So I think the over is my

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Speaker 3: favorite play here.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting because I mean, when I look at this,

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Speaker 1: my ice makes this game around fifty two, and obviously

365
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Speaker 1: they opened this low at around forty eight. You got

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Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the public all over and over,

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Speaker 1: and it's really not climbing very hot. Like I think

368
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Speaker 1: there's only one book. I think Serpent has this line

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Speaker 1: at fifty. Everybody else is at forty nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna sit tight on this one. I mean,

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Speaker 1: my number agrees with it, but I just for a

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Speaker 1: playoff atmosphere, I am a little I'm a little nervous

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Speaker 1: about this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I get that. Well, it's a good one to watch.

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Speaker 3: I am intrigued. I'm gonna stay away from the side,

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Speaker 3: but I know you'll the Chargers in that one. We'll

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Speaker 3: see how that plays out. Earlier, late afternoon game, another

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles team, the Rams. The Rams are at home.

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Speaker 3: We know that the Rams, if they beat the forty

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Speaker 3: nine Ers. Here, the Rams are division champions. If the

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Speaker 3: Rams don't win, they can still win the division. If

382
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,119
Speaker 3: the Cardinals lose the forty nine Ers, they need to

383
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Speaker 3: win to make the playoffs. Here, however, if the Saints lose,

384
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Speaker 3: the Niners still make the playoffs. There's a weird spot

385
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Speaker 3: where both of these teams could lose motivation mid game

386
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Speaker 3: if they look at the scoreboard and Arizona's getting blown

387
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Speaker 3: out or New Orleans getting blown out, So you never

388
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Speaker 3: know how the motivation angle might change. The number is

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Speaker 3: weird here. The Rams at BETMGM are minus five and

390
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Speaker 3: a half. If you look around, I see some fives,

391
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Speaker 3: four and a halfs even fours at books, and it's

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Speaker 3: kind of sat there all week, so kind of right

393
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Speaker 3: in that dead zone in there, and I like San

394
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Speaker 3: Francisco here, I think the Niners are alive. What do

395
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Speaker 3: you think about this game?

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Speaker 2: I tend to agree with you here in this situation.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's very, very hard to back Matthew

398
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Speaker 1: Stafford against a winning team thirty one fifty and two

399
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 1: against the spread. That's thirty eight point two percent against

400
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 1: the spread against winning teams. Straight up, He's just twenty

401
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 1: six and fifty seven. That's thirty one point three percent.

402
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 1: We look at this Rams team, I mean they're fifth

403
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Speaker 1: in EPA per play seventh and success rate on offense

404
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 1: and on defense. Their tenth for EPA per play sixteenth

405
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Speaker 1: and success rate. And I mean, look, they have all

406
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Speaker 1: the stars. They got Aaron Donald, Hooper, Cup, Jalen Ramsey, Odell.

407
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Speaker 2: Beck, and Von Miller.

408
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Speaker 1: They have everything you want, but it comes down to

409
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Speaker 1: the fact that you really can't trust Matthew Stafford. This

410
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,720
Speaker 1: guy has five interceptions and a fumble during the last

411
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Speaker 1: two games. And you know, if Tyler Huntley doesn't throw

412
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Speaker 1: his own interception in the red zone, the Raymis probably

413
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 1: win that game. So it's just for me, Like the

414
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Speaker 1: last time these two teams played the forty nine Ers Dominie,

415
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Speaker 1: it just feels like a game in which four Niners

416
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Speaker 1: should be able to run the ball and he should

417
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Speaker 1: be able to get off when their offense should be

418
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 1: able to do what.

419
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Speaker 2: They have to do. But yeah, I think I'm rolling

420
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: with the four nine ers in this one. Yeah.

421
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Speaker 3: I mean, if you've listened to our recent podcast, you

422
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Speaker 3: know that I am not on the Rams right now.

423
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Speaker 3: I just think this team is winning with some smoke

424
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Speaker 3: and mirrors right now. Matt Stafford six interceptions the last

425
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Speaker 3: three games. Honestly feels like he could have double that number.

426
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Speaker 3: Like he's tied I think for the NFL lead in

427
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Speaker 3: interceptions right now. The numbers you said, they get even

428
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Speaker 3: worse late in the season when you're playing over five

429
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 3: hundred teams, and that's when we know those over five

430
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,840
Speaker 3: hundred teams are good, not just like a one to

431
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Speaker 3: oh team in Week two. So here's November forward. Matt

432
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Speaker 3: Stafford as a favorite six and seven straight up, six

433
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Speaker 3: and seven. That's a losing record as a favorite against

434
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Speaker 3: the spread thirteen thirty two and two twenty eight percent

435
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,719
Speaker 3: cover rate. That is horrendous. So I love to bet

436
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:58,400
Speaker 3: against Matt Stafford as a favorite against another good team.

437
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 3: You look at the DVA here, Rams are number five,

438
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:06,160
Speaker 3: Niners number seven on offense, Rams number six, Niners number

439
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:10,479
Speaker 3: five on defense, Rams fifth, Niners eighth. These teams are

440
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 3: dead even. However, earlier this season, the Niners were not

441
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,800
Speaker 3: as good as they are right now. They were missing

442
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 3: Trent Williams a while, they were missing George Kittle for

443
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 3: a big stretch. They weren't strong then the Rams were

444
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 3: better earlier in the season. The Rams are worse late

445
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 3: in the year. They're missing Robert Woods, the offense is

446
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: not fighting all cylinders. So if the overall season numbers

447
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 3: are even, but the Niners are rounding in the top

448
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 3: form right now, the Rams have been fading and barely

449
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 3: lucky to win some of these games. I just think

450
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 3: that maybe even I mean the wrong team is favored

451
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 3: to me, not how the books are gonna do it.

452
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 3: The book are I was gonna make the Rams are

453
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 3: favored here they're home to win the division. But I

454
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 3: just think the Niners might be the better team.

455
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 2: We know too.

456
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,959
Speaker 3: This has not been a good matchup for Sean McVay.

457
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 3: McVeigh is three and six against the spread lifetime against

458
00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,919
Speaker 3: Cal Shanahan, the only other coach in the Tarr NFL

459
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: that McVeigh has more than one game below five hundred

460
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: ats Mike Zimerzho and two, so Shanahan has a number.

461
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 3: Shanahan has beaten McVeigh five in a row, three times

462
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 3: as an underdog. The last three games as an underdog

463
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 3: he's won outright, including earlier this year Monday Night in

464
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 3: November thirty one, ten not close. The Niners crushed the

465
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 3: Rams thirty nine minutes of possession of twenty one. There

466
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 3: ran all over them. The Rams couldn't convert on third down.

467
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 3: I don't know we're going to get that number here,

468
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 3: but I like San Francisco a lot. I think this

469
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 3: number is all wrong. My only hesitation. My question for

470
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,120
Speaker 3: you is this, Jimmy Garoppolo has actually been pretty good.

471
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 3: The advanced metrics are in his favor, but he's injured.

472
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 3: I think he's out. I think we're going to see

473
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 3: Trey Lance again here. Also, like you say, the forty

474
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: nine ers secondary is in the hospital. They got six

475
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 3: guys on the COVID list, but we might get some

476
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 3: names back by the weekend. It did happen early in

477
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 3: the week to either of those Keith names at quarterback

478
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 3: or corner. Do they make you hesitant here? Are you

479
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 3: gonna wait to see what happens? Or are you okay?

480
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 3: What's about Stoll?

481
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 2: Look, it does have to make you nervous.

482
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: But I think one of the reasons why this number

483
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: is inflated is because I think the public is overvaluing

484
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 1: the difference between Garoppolo and Lance, and I think that's

485
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 1: where a lot of the value was coming from. And

486
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: I think sometimes you got to be able to say,

487
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: you know what, maybe this spread should be lower than

488
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: what it is. Despite the downgrade from Garoppolo to Lance,

489
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 1: and I mean, look, with Garoppolo in the field, they perform,

490
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: it's almost like the seventh best offense and EPA for play.

491
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: So Garoppolo has actually been solid. So it is a

492
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: downgrade from Lance. But Lance can do things with its legs,

493
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 1: and we all know that Shanahan with that zone run scheme.

494
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 2: He's gonna open things up. The offense should be able

495
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:58,080
Speaker 2: to perform.

496
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm leaning with the four nine ers with

497
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 1: the four and a half.

498
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Lance too. He's had two starts now, really

499
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: rough first half, but then it really has looked a

500
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 3: lot more comfortable in the second and half as he's

501
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 3: gotten his legs a little bit. Look, the dude didn't

502
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 3: start a game last year, so he does don't have

503
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: a lot of experience right now. One game last week

504
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 3: is a big deal for him. And getting a second

505
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 3: straight start a week presumably starting or practicing with the starters,

506
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 3: I think that goes a long way with him, So

507
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: it doesn't worry me too much. I will say this.

508
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: I like nine ers plus five and a half. I

509
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 3: like niners plus one eighty on the money line. I

510
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 3: might wait because I'm not really worried about dropping to

511
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: four and a half. Four that's all about the same

512
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 3: range to me. Those aren't key numbers. The upside of

513
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: the line moving up maybe at once Lance has announced

514
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 3: as a starter, and now we get to a plus

515
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 3: six or plus seven. That's worth the wait to me.

516
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: So I love the Niners. I may wait and hope

517
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,360
Speaker 3: we can get that number though. Yeah, that makes sense.

518
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 3: That definitely makes sense, all right. Last one, Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

519
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 3: This game could be meaningless. If the coltspoot the Jaguars,

520
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 3: then these teams are both effectively out at that point.

521
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 3: If the Jaguars win, then this effectively becomes a playoff game.

522
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is a six point underdog in Baltimore. Of course,

523
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 3: this game never meaningless. These teams hate each other. It's

524
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 3: been one of my favorite rivalries just as a fan

525
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,679
Speaker 3: to watch over the last couple decades. It's Big Ben's

526
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 3: last regular season game ever. We know that we had

527
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 3: the emotional goodbye in Pittsburgh Monday night. They got the

528
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 3: win Baltimore has been living in the hospital all season.

529
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson, we still don't know. We never know. I'm

530
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: getting sick of reading Lamar Jackson practice reports. I would

531
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 3: say it looks like Tavier Huntley is probably gonna end

532
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: up playing here. Big news from earlier, just a couple

533
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 3: hours ago, Deontay Johnson on the COVID list. I think

534
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,200
Speaker 3: he's out for Sunday, right, is he?

535
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: Definitely? Yeah?

536
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 1: Dance Johnson and sinner Kendrick Green is on the reserve

537
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: COVID list, which the actually move up to six right now.

538
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you and I think both were liking the Steelers,

539
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 3: but we like the Steelers because anything can pass on

540
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 3: this Baltimore team. Dante Johnson, that's the that's the best

541
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 3: player on Pittsburgh's offense. To me, that's the star receiver

542
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 3: that can really do some damage. So as of this morning,

543
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 3: when I prepped my notes, I was ready to make

544
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 3: the case for the Steelers. I still like Pittsburgh, but

545
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 3: I like them a little less.

546
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 2: Now.

547
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,159
Speaker 3: How much does that news hurt the Steelers for you?

548
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 2: I think it hurts the Steelers a lot.

549
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,400
Speaker 1: I Mean, when you look at the Steelers offense, they're

550
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: not a great offensive line and you lose your starting center.

551
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 1: The whole case against me backing betting against the Ravens

552
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:35,719
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks is their defense.

553
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 2: They've really been struggling on defense.

554
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: They're twenty eighth and EPA for play, they're twenty eighth

555
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: and drop back EPA for play. They can't stop the pass,

556
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: and Deontay Johnson is just him and Chase Chase Claypool.

557
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: I felt like they would be able to go in

558
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: there and dominate this matchup when you saw in the

559
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: first matchup, Ben Roethlisberg was twenty one to thirty one,

560
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 1: thirty six yards, two touchdowns, and that was good enough

561
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 1: to pull up the upset. But if you look at

562
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: this Steelers defense right now, they're really struggling. They can't

563
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: stop the run. We saw the Baltimore Ravens run all

564
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: over them the previous game.

565
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 2: And now if you take away the Stillers.

566
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 1: Starting center and one of the best wide receivers, I

567
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: just don't know how they match point for point. But

568
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: I'm looking at this line go up to six, and

569
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: these are two teams that typically play each other close.

570
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 2: I think you might have said it in one of

571
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: your articles, I think the underdog when the line is

572
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: four more.

573
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: It's seventeen and two when either team is favored by

574
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 1: more than a full goal. So it's just I don't

575
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: know how you lay six points with the Ravens in

576
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: this spot, especially with Olomar Jackson and the totals solo.

577
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: I mean, you're looking at a low total of forty

578
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: one and a half. So I think you still got

579
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 1: to be looking at the Stellers in this spot despite

580
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 1: the losses.

581
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, to me, this is a spot where I go

582
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: from being in love with the Steelers to being in

583
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,520
Speaker 3: like with the Steelers. I still have to play Pittsburgh.

584
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 3: Like you said, I don't like them as much without

585
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 3: Dante Johnson. That's a real loss for them. But we

586
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: also gained a little value on the number. These games

587
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 3: are close. Plus six, that's a lot, and the number

588
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 3: might keep moving. It's another spot where you know it

589
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 3: might get to six and a half or seven, and

590
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: that half or a full point could really matter too.

591
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 3: Like you said, Since two thousand and five, more than

592
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: the field goal favorite underdogs seventeen and two against the spread,

593
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's five and zero out of those games, with three

594
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 3: outright wins, and of course can't be a podcast. But

595
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 3: I don't mention Mike Tomlin as an underdog seventy one

596
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: percent against the spread week five or later as a

597
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 3: dog forty six percent. ROI with twenty nine and twenty

598
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 3: one straight up record. That's just what the Steelers do.

599
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 3: And it's one last shot, maybe one last shot. Maybe

600
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 3: we'll get another playoff shot to bet on the Steelers

601
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 3: underdogs too. Baltimore dead last EPA. Defensively, I gotta take

602
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 3: the Steelers here at plus six. I'm not going to

603
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 3: go quite as hard as I would have before the

604
00:27:55,680 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 3: Deontay Johnson news. And I gotta wait because we know

605
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,200
Speaker 3: this by now, where there's one COVID, there may be

606
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 3: more to come. So I hate to lose the plus

607
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 3: six I don't want to drop down below that. But

608
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 3: the risk of losing the value versus the risk of

609
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 3: suddenly more guys missing, I have to wait on it

610
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 3: and see.

611
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: So Ben Roethlisberger had a really big emotional win on

612
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: Monday night. He saw the way he handled the postgame

613
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 1: press conference. How much does that way into how you

614
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,680
Speaker 1: feel about this game? Because when you see stuff like that,

615
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:31,680
Speaker 1: you tend to think maybe this is a letdown spot

616
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 1: for the Steelers.

617
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, it certainly that caught my attention right away when

618
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 3: this line was a little high thought. Well, maybe that's

619
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: what we're setting up here, is it's the emotional letdown

620
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: spot for most teams. I would really worry here. It's

621
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 3: the Steelers. Roethlisberg's played two decades, Mike Tomlins the professional.

622
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: It's the Ravens. You don't let down in Big Ben's

623
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 3: last game with Tomlin, playoffs on the line in your

624
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: rivalry game, there's no letdown. You show up for this game.

625
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: So it is an emotional week. It's an angle to consider.

626
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 3: But if there's ever a spot to say, look, they're

627
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 3: going to be ready for this one, I can't wait

628
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 3: too much. But here so I think it's a good spot.

629
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: One other one bet MGM is a prop up. So

630
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 3: we know TJ. A. Watt was a monster Monday Night,

631
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 3: four sacks against the Browns. He is at right now,

632
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: I believe twenty and or twenty one and a half.

633
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 3: He's played fourteen games. So at BETMGM you can bet

634
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 3: will a player break the sack record plus one sixty

635
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 3: five tg Watt needs one to tie. That's not good enough.

636
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: You got to break it. He needs one and a

637
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: half sacks. I'm all over that plus one sixty five.

638
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: Last game earlier this season against the Ravens, TJ. A.

639
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 3: Watt at three and a half sacks. Last year he

640
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 3: had three sacks in two games against them. They don't

641
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: have a good line.

642
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 2: TJ. A.

643
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 3: Watt's going to live in the backfield if the Steelers

644
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 3: do go win, especially with Deontay Johnson out is going

645
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 3: to because TJ. A. Watt our new defensive Player of

646
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:58,479
Speaker 3: the Year, which you told you bet last week. By

647
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 3: the way, he's going to get there. He's gonna set

648
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 3: that sack record. He only needs one and a half.

649
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 3: If TJ. Watt knows he needs one and half sacks

650
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: and he's got a game to do it, you're not

651
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: stopping him from that. I love that prop. What do

652
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: you think?

653
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 2: And it's a good propp I like that. That's a

654
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: rogue one. I'm not mad at that.

655
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 3: All right. Well, we like the Steelers, we all love them.

656
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 3: We do love TJ.

657
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: Watt.

658
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 3: Let's hear quick word from our sponsor and then to

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00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 4: so much for listening. Let's get back to the show, all.

691
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: Right, Week eighteen Best Bets. Mostly, we've got our best bets,

692
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 3: and those games we just talked about, we do like

693
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,760
Speaker 3: a few others here. I like the other NFC West matchup.

694
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 3: I like the Seahawks at the Cardinals plus seven. Seattle

695
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: is twelfth in Dvoa, Arizona's only ten, so these teams

696
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: again relatively equal. Seattle went six and ten, but eight

697
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 3: point six expected wins at Football Outsider, so this is

698
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,920
Speaker 3: a team that's kind of played below their usual expectations.

699
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 3: Plus Seahawks Cardinals. These are just weird games. We get

700
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 3: weird close, low score, weird games that come close late.

701
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 3: Eight of the last eleven or one score games. Last week,

702
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 3: I bet the Cardinals it was a by low spot

703
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 3: for Arizona, a sell high spot on Dallas. Now we're flipped.

704
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: I think Arizona got the big national TV win. I

705
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: think we're puffing them up a little bit too much.

706
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 3: And also there's a chance here if the Rams get

707
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 3: a blowout win, the Cardinals really don't have any incentive

708
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 3: to play and they could call off the Dogs too,

709
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: So you got a few angles here. I hang the

710
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 3: by los Sell high on the Cards. I like Seahawks

711
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 3: plus seven. I play the money line too.

712
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not mad at that at all. I'm definitely

713
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: not mad at that at all. And it's just like,

714
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 1: as we all see a lot of a lot of times,

715
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 1: these games where teams have to win in order to

716
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: clench the division or get into the playoffs, it doesn't

717
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 1: mean that they're going to cover more often than not.

718
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: And I think this is an angle that you have

719
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: to play when it comes to Week eighteen all the time.

720
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: It's historically profitable.

721
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: So I'm actually going with the same type of angle.

722
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: I'm playing the Atlanta Falcons. I gave this out the

723
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: other night on the Hot Read. Since nineteen ninety, teams

724
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 1: that are out of playoff contention are ninety four, fifty

725
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 1: six and four at sixty three percent in week sixteen

726
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: to seventeen against the spread and against teams who are

727
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: trying to clench the playoff spot. And I just don't

728
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 1: think the Saints team is very good. Like look the Saints,

729
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 1: they's just been struggling offensively. We've seen it over the

730
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: last three four weeks. Outside of their game against the

731
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: New York just when they scored thirty points, they put

732
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: up six points against the Bill, seventeen points against the Cowboys,

733
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 1: nine points against the Buccaneers, three points against the Dolphins,

734
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 1: eighteen points against the Panthers, and they were just fortunate

735
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: to get two turnovers against the Panthers. So they're facing

736
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 1: a Falcons team, which and I noticed this Saints defense

737
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 1: has been really good. They've been second EPA per drive

738
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: first to success rate. But Matt Ryan actually carved this

739
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:30,759
Speaker 1: defense up. They were twenty three or thirty for three

740
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: out and forty three yards two touchdowns, and they jumped

741
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: out to a huge league before Trevor Sidney and actually

742
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: came back. So I think this four and a half

743
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 1: points is just way too much for this Saints team

744
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: that just they averaged four point eight yards per play

745
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: So I'm taking the Falcons. I think the Falcons might

746
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 1: even have a chance to win this out right, So

747
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 1: I might sprinkle something on.

748
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 2: The money line.

749
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 3: Oh man, you know where him likes an underdog if

750
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: he's playing the money line till I'm with you on

751
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 3: this one or him. I like the Falcons. Saints are

752
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 3: dead last on EPA per playoff over the last seven games,

753
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 3: last in the whole NFL. The Giants haven't played a

754
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 3: quarterback for a few weeks, and the Saints are worse

755
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 3: than the Giants. Still. The other thing too, Taysom Hill

756
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 3: when he starts the game, has gone under seven out

757
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 3: of eight games in his career and he's played two

758
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 3: games against the Falcons too, he played them last year.

759
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 3: So I like it when the total is that low

760
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 3: at forty and a half and you're looking under than

761
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 3: the five and a half here especially can be a

762
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: bigger number two. So I'm with you on the Falcons.

763
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 3: I'm going in for a one more that same angle

764
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 3: you just said picking one of these teams that's out

765
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 3: of it, but just playing for pride. I like the

766
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: Texans against the Titans. Houston's at home plus ten and

767
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 3: a half. Eight of the last eleven games in this

768
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 3: rivalry has covered that number, so these games typically are close.

769
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 3: It's division. That's how this goes.

770
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 2: Again.

771
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 3: I think it's a bit of a cell high spot

772
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 3: for Tennessee. They beat Miami thirty four to three. I

773
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: wasn't really so convinced. They certainly deserved to win, but

774
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 3: that wasn't a thirty four to three game. They pulled

775
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: away late before that. Last five games for the Titans,

776
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: they escape Thursday night against the Niners. Had no business

777
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 3: winning that game, and they had losses to New England,

778
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh and hey, the Texans. They lost to this team

779
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: by nine like a month ago, and now the line

780
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 3: has flipped twenty points basically to win by double digits.

781
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:21,279
Speaker 3: Titans number twenty seven offense EPA. During that stretch, there's

782
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 3: there's a lot of trends that like the Texans here

783
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 3: ten point or more home underdogs December and later are

784
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 3: thirty two and eighteen against the spread, sixty four percent

785
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 3: cover rate. Titans are also on a two game winning streak.

786
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 3: In the final game of the regular season, teams have

787
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: won two or three in a row only cover thirty

788
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 3: eight percent of the time. So I like the trends

789
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 3: here and at least the Texans keeping it close. I

790
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 3: sort of feel like my gut says the Titans are

791
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 3: gonna can ugly win and ugly their way into the

792
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 3: one seed like they've been doing all season. I will

793
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 3: sprinkle the money lines because it's a long number here,

794
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: but I feel better about just the Texans cover. I

795
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,920
Speaker 3: think they'll hang around. But yeah, I just I'm just

796
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: gonna keep betting against the Titans until they finally get

797
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:03,799
Speaker 3: knocked out.

798
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

799
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: I think this is an interesting game, and I think

800
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 1: you want to if you bet this, you want to

801
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: grab this sooner rather than later, because in the event

802
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 1: that the Kansas City Chiefs actually lose against the Broncos,

803
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 1: which I don't think many people think is going to happen,

804
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 1: then this line is going to go down because the

805
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: Titans are going to clunch the number one seats so

806
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 1: they won't be finding anything. So I think this is

807
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 1: a game where the Titans get out with a victory,

808
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 1: but I don't think they're going to push it too hard.

809
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: Obviously.

810
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 1: I think they were laying ten the last time of

811
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: these two teams played, and the Texas actually went out

812
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 1: there and went outright. Obviously, the Titans turn the ball

813
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: over a lot during that game, but I still think

814
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 1: this is too many points, so I agree with you.

815
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: I have a second best bet, which is a lean.

816
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: The prop market actually isn't out yet. But one of

817
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,880
Speaker 1: the things that I found interesting is, obviously it's weeks eighteen,

818
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: you have a lot of guys who are just looking

819
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 1: for incentives, and you look at Stefan Diggs Buffalo Bills.

820
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: Bills are laying they're a heavy heavy favorite assisting and

821
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 1: a half point favorites against the New York Jets, and

822
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs is actually six receptions away from reaching one

823
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: hundred for the season. And it turns out that that

824
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:15,440
Speaker 1: one hundred catch threshold would mean that he would get

825
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 1: some bonus punishment for the season, So he would get

826
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 1: a seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars bonus added to

827
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: his base salary for twenty twenty two and an additional

828
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand edits his base pay for twenty twenty three.

829
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 1: If he gets a one hundred catches, they're a big favorite.

830
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: There's no way that this jet secondary is gonna be

831
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: able to slow down Stefan Digs from getting his one

832
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: hundred catches. So whenever that prop market comes out, I

833
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 1: want you guys to probably take a look at that,

834
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,959
Speaker 1: see if you can play stepon Diggs over receptions, maybe

835
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: even some over yards because it's correlated and I think

836
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 1: that should be able to hit.

837
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 2: But the prop market isn't.

838
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 3: Out yet, so yeah, those are incentives. They're hard to

839
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 3: track because we don't assuily get all those contracts. But

840
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 3: but I had to do was catch six balls against

841
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 3: the Jets for one and a half million dollars. I

842
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: think I'd find a way to get six balls in

843
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 3: there too, So I do like that one. Let's hit

844
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 3: our look ahead here before we wrap up Hot Wrap BO.

845
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 1: Seventy on ice rights ice cream.

846
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 3: Of course, normally on the look ahead, we're looking ahead

847
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 3: to next week. We don't have the schedule yet, so

848
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: we can't go there. We'll come back to it. I

849
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 3: have a look ahead for you, though it's a little different.

850
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 3: I'm playing a future today. I kind of alluded to

851
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 3: this earlier my look ahead for you, and you got

852
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 3: about this before Sunday. That's the key here, because I

853
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: think the odds drop. I'm playing the San Francisco forty

854
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 3: nine ers to win the NFC and to win the

855
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: Super Bowl plus twenty five hundred to win the NFC

856
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 3: plus five thousand and two win the Super Bowl. I

857
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 3: want both because I don't think they're going to win

858
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 3: the super Bowl, and I want a chance to kind

859
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: of cash out and get a win partially the way there.

860
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 3: Here's what I like again with the NFC. We talked

861
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: about its matchup favor and you said to yourself, what

862
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 3: matters in the NFC is we got all these beatable

863
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 3: run defenses, but all the good run teams are in

864
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: the AFC except the Niners. The Niners, we're all focusing

865
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,840
Speaker 3: on those corners. We're focusing on the quarterback. The names

866
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 3: that matter are perfectly fine. The names that matter to me,

867
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 3: Trent Williams maybe the best non quarterback in football at

868
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 3: left tackle, George Kittle maybe the best non quarterback in

869
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: football at tight end. They got both of them. They

870
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 3: got Kyle just A Chetz, we got Deebo Samuel. We

871
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,839
Speaker 3: got Kyle Shanahan calling the plays. Those are the names

872
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 3: that matter. We know Shanahan is not good as a favorite,

873
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 3: He's very good as an underdog. I think the Niners

874
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 3: game trawls well, I'm not sure. I'm worried about them

875
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 3: going on the road. The Packers bottom five and rush defense,

876
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 3: and if the Niners get a six or seven seed

877
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: and get one win, they're very likely to go to

878
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 3: Green Bay. I like that matchup for San fran and

879
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,279
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. Run defense has really struggled without JJ lot

880
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 3: the Bucks defense, Remember, we were not running at all

881
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 3: on them earlier late in the year. Teams are running

882
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 3: on Tampa Bay a little bit so to me. In

883
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 3: the NFC, the Niners are a sleeper that I like

884
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 3: a lot. They're fifth in the EPA per play since

885
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 3: Week nine since Kittle and Trent came back healthy, and

886
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 3: in that same stretch, Packers' third worst run defense in

887
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 3: the league, Bucks bottom half of the league. Dallas has

888
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 3: been bottom half all season against the run. I like

889
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers. I'm not saying they're gonna win,

890
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,439
Speaker 3: but we're twenty five to one. That number is gonna

891
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,879
Speaker 3: drop because part of The value right now is they're

892
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: not even a sure playoff team, so you want to

893
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 3: grab the before Sunday. If they go beat the Rams

894
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 3: on Sunday, not only will the odds drop because they're

895
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 3: in the playoffs, we might even get a Niners a

896
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 3: Rams rematch, and suddenly they're gonna say, hey, the Niners

897
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 3: beat the Rams twice this season. They got a real

898
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: shot here. I want to grab that number now. I'm

899
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 3: even seeing I mentioned the Bills Niners Bills super Bowl

900
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,319
Speaker 3: is plus one or one hundred and sixteen to one

901
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 3: if you're really want to get crazy and have some fun.

902
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 3: So these are long shots for him, you know how

903
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 3: I do. I love my long shots. I gotta play

904
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 3: the Niners here. I don't even mind Trey Lance. He

905
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: out to that power rushing attack. If that ends up

906
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 3: being where it goes. I just think in an NFC

907
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 3: where everything else looks similar, the Niners are something very different,

908
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 3: and it's a team that I could see get hot

909
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: and get rolling, running the ball, keeping those hot offenses

910
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 3: on the sideline and chewing up time of possession. Playoff football.

911
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 3: I like the Niners. How crazy you think I am?

912
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: It's got a bad play It's not a bad play

913
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 2: at all.

914
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I said earlier on I think I tweeted

915
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 1: it out, but like the Niners were live against the Packers,

916
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,800
Speaker 1: So I mean, if that's the case, then I like

917
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: their chances. I mean, provided that Jimmy g comes back.

918
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 1: I do think it's wide open as far as the NFC.

919
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 3: So it's not a bad play, all right, I'll take it.

920
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,680
Speaker 3: I'll take not a bad play. So that is going

921
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,919
Speaker 3: to wrap it up for today. We will be back,

922
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: of course, to wrap up up Week eighteen football Sunday

923
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 3: night for your ear holes. Monday morning, we'll be talking playoffs.

924
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 3: We will have a whole bracket by then, and get

925
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,959
Speaker 3: excited for some playoff football. Don't forget to download the app,

926
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 3: don't forget to rate and review on Apple and Spotify.

927
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 2: Now.

928
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 3: If you haven't yet, listen to Stuckying Raybaun on the

929
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 3: Sixth Pack. If you haven't, we'll see you on Monday

930
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 3: for here at the Action Hour podcast. Don't forget too

931
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 3: the Buckets podcast. We had a little break over the holidays.

932
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: Raheem and myself, Matt Moore and others are back talking

933
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 3: to you NBA pretty much every day during the week

934
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 3: so catch us over there as well on the Bucket

935
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 3: Speed Forheem Palmer. I'm Brandon Anderson and this has been

936
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. Enjoy your weekend and we will

937
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 3: see you in the playoffs