WEBVTT - Tories Try to Catch Labour Using Tax Breaks 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:08.360 Welcome to In the City, Bloomberg's podcast, connecting you to 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:11.799 the conversations of the stories shaping the world of finance. 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:14.880 I'm David Merritt in our London studio with Franci Maquar 0:00:15.360 --> 0:00:19.200 and Allegra Stratton, and we've all just healed ourselves away 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:22.240 from watching Jeremy Hunt deliver He's our or so long 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:25.000 autumn statement. So we're going to be reacting to that, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:28.680 seeing how business is feeling, how the city is reacting, 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:31.240 and so with us. Also today is our City editor 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:33.720 Katherine Griffiths. Welcome to In the City again. 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.200 Catherine, thank you very much. 0:00:35.560 --> 0:00:37.559 So you've pulled yourself away like the rest of us. 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:41.360 We've just watched Jerry Hunt and Rachel Reeves responding to 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.080 his awesome statement. What are your takeaways? 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.239 Well, my main takeaway, quite honestly, was to be extremely 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.720 annoyed not to have got the story that they were 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:54.200 going to spring a retail share offering in that west 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:58.680 in US and down and then the share anyone, my goodness. 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:01.520 Although I am going to take a little bit of 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:05.920 credit for this amazing policy because a few weeks ago 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:10.240 I literally did I don't think anyone had thought of it, 0:01:10.319 --> 0:01:12.880 and at the Conservative Party conference, I was on a 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:16.039 panel with Andrew Griffith, who's obviously been moved on since 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.360 being City minister. The griff The griff the Griffiths. This 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:24.119 is like to stick together. I'm related. Disclaimer not yes, 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:27.240 disclaimer very important. And I said, how about you do 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:29.680 a retail share offer because he was saying how it 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:31.080 would be great if we had more of a share 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:34.240 owning culture. I don't think he said yes. I think 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:36.600 he may have said no, or you know, didn't say 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:38.520 very much at the time, just kind of gave a 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:46.240 negative sense. But yeah, and so I do think perhaps 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:50.160 that's that's down to me, guys original. 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.600 So how is it going to go down more broadly 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:54.920 outside of the square mark. We're going to have a 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.640 big offerer of network stock and the government is going 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.000 to completely sell down their state. Yeah. 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.639 Yeah, so they'll probably sell some other ways as well. 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:06.160 To institutions. They have this thing weirdly called a dribble 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:08.480 out where they when the shares are at a certain price, 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:10.799 they sort of very gradually do dribble the shares out 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:13.600 into the market. But the retail offer will be you know, 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:17.560 it will be a really eye catching story and it's 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:19.639 amazing really that they're going to do it, because they 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.400 will make an enormous loss on what they sell the 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:26.200 shares for compared to all those years ago during the 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:29.720 financial crisis, what they bought them for. And I must 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:31.760 say I'm of the view that that's a bit of 0:02:31.800 --> 0:02:35.120 an unfair criticism because they bought nat West at that 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:38.000 time to save the banking system, and that's one thing, 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:42.720 but it will be ugly that the big loss and a. 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.680 Weird time as well for that West. I mean, they're 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:47.000 going through a leadership. I mean, they've had this crisis 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.239 over Rose having to step down and the whole cutes 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:49.799 thing is tall. 0:02:50.040 --> 0:02:53.920 Yeah, a really weird time, and I think in some 0:02:53.960 --> 0:02:56.840 ways I wonder if that partly kind of sharpened their 0:02:56.840 --> 0:03:01.239 resolve on this because having all forty percent of that 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:06.120 West during this whole Nigel Farrage fiasco has been just 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:08.600 a horrible nightmare for the government. And you know, it 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:11.480 looked like they stepped in a very direct way to 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.800 get rid of Allison Rose as chief exec So just 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.320 it's sort of highlighted I suppose that really isn't the 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.880 best idea for governments to own big banks and maybe 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:22.840 it's best for everyone to have a parting of ways, 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:25.519 and it genuinely is a way for people out there 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:27.720 perhaps to think, you know, they will have heard of 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:29.639 that West if you are going to try to get 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.600 people interested in owning shares. Famously, of course the tel 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:38.280 sid campaign from the eighties, which it yeah about British gas, 0:03:38.320 --> 0:03:41.000 then it's you could you can see why if they 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:42.920 if they've come to terms with the fact they're going 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.880 to get criticized over the loss, it's probably quite a 0:03:45.920 --> 0:03:46.440 good idea. 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:50.120 And that is one of the interesting philosophical ideas bubbling 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:52.200 around at the moment when you see how they're trying 0:03:52.240 --> 0:03:54.800 to increase investment in startups and so on. Is this 0:03:54.920 --> 0:03:58.240 idea of why are Brits particularly why do we seem 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:01.040 to be sort of averse or think it's a slightly 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:05.080 kind of dirty pastime to get involved in capitalism and 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.080 supporting companies and so on. So that is one of 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:08.880 the interesting things that Andrew Griffis was trying to do 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:11.440 when he was city minister. He is city minister no more. 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:19.560 After you interviewed him, he was moved on, yes, sorry, promotion, Yeah, 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:21.039 but that was one of the things he was trying 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:23.760 to do. It was a springboard. They heard it and 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.240 they said, get that man up further up the notches 0:04:26.279 --> 0:04:26.720 of government. 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:31.840 How political overall was this, you know, Budget Catherine. 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:36.000 I think it was definitely political, and there was some 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.880 I thought there was some quite sharp jibes at labor. 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.320 Obviously that's part of the sport normally, but I thought 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:45.000 it was particularly sharp today. But I guess it was 0:04:45.040 --> 0:04:48.680 also quite expected. It was for business certainly. The kind 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:53.080 of the big hundred percent expensing on captain investment was 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:56.680 they were in a tricky place because everyone expected it, 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:58.279 but they had to make a big deal of it 0:04:58.320 --> 0:05:01.320 because it's really expensive to to give businesses that. But 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:03.920 it is a pretty significant thing, so that was good. 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.200 I think there was some stuff on housing and planning 0:05:07.320 --> 0:05:11.720 which was broadly seen to be pretty positive. National insurance. 0:05:12.240 --> 0:05:15.160 I'm not the expert, but it seems like timing wise, 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.560 announcing it now might suggest they're trying to kind of 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:20.240 get themselves into a position to go earlier on an 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:21.600 election maybe rather than later. 0:05:21.880 --> 0:05:23.800 He was accelerating it to January as well, right, there 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:25.280 was going to be so rather than waiting until the 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.000 end of the tax shit. So yeah, trying to get 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.080 that money in people's pockets potential ahead of a spring election. 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:33.360 Well, we we always talk about looking for the rabbits 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.200 in the hat and in the redoubt. I have said, 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:38.279 this is a slightly fatter rabbit than we expected. We 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.360 expected the penny, we didn't expect the two piece. In 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:43.240 the Bloomberg newsroom, there was a tiny, tiny and as 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:47.240 much as he's cool, exactly, especially cool cats at Bloomberg 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:49.880 are surprised by many things, there was this like kind 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:53.039 of oh, two p not one piece. Well raise, yeah, exactly, 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:58.159 that's right, So slight whimper. It's a funny kind of 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.280 politics because I think that there's a number of things 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.440 that they've announced today that labor will probably back, like 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:06.480 full expensing, So it's sort of very political. You're right, Catherine, 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:09.760 because it's definitely sort of, if not the last then 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.599 one of the last big fiscal financial moments before in 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.960 general election. So clearly, of course, maybe off their rocker. 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.920 Not to make it political. I think the other politics 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:22.799 and themes that I'm starting to hear are around Sunak 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:27.080 and Hunt talking about being businessmen and contrasting themselves with 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:30.839 Reeves and Starmer, who for all that Rachel's incredibly impressive 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.400 and has had that period in the Bank of England. 0:06:33.720 --> 0:06:36.440 It isn't running your own company and taking that kind 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:40.840 of risk. And certainly the Chancellor Hunt today and he 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:43.240 now takes the mickey out of himself for doing it 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.400 because he did it a lot during the leadership race, 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.200 but talks about fourteen years running his own business. So 0:06:48.200 --> 0:06:50.440 I think we'll probably start to see quite a bit 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:53.560 of that to come full circle to this point about 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:56.880 you know, Britain and this kind of do we quite 0:06:56.960 --> 0:06:59.560 understand setting up your own business, the risk you take 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:04.080 and then wanting to keep equity and control and not 0:07:04.120 --> 0:07:06.240 being able to and so decamping to the States and 0:07:06.240 --> 0:07:09.280 so on. How do we start to reverse that cult 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:12.640 or change that culture in the UK. 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:15.560 But and actually to both of you, I mean this 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:17.920 at the margin won't make a huge difference. I know 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:19.800 there were tax cuts, but they're still the highest in 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:24.600 seventy years. So it's giving I guess something for people 0:07:24.640 --> 0:07:26.520 to say, oh, maybe you know, maybe I'm not that 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:29.880 badly off, or maybe I'll it'll get better, But it's 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.920 not really a game changer, and it's all been possible 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.720 thanks to higher inflation. So the ober found this money. 0:07:36.000 --> 0:07:37.880 I mean, they didn't really find the money, but they said, look, 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.480 you have more physical space because inflation has gone up 0:07:41.560 --> 0:07:44.560 and so tax revenues have increased because they froze the bands. 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:49.000 So it's not really new money there no. 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:53.200 And on the sort of investment side, and as Alego says, 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:56.280 there's this incredible kind of push to try and get 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.720 the UK more investible. There had been all sorts of 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:04.160 ideas floating around. So they have said they're creating a 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:07.520 growth fund, but they don't seem to be putting any 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:11.480 kind of government backing behind it. And they had considered 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.560 that they'd considered creating something a bit like Canada's Growth 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:19.240 Fund and actually sort of trying to make it more 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:23.120 enticing by there being some co investment. And that side 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:26.160 of the announcements were pretty mealy mouthed and maybe a 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:27.640 little bit underwhelming. 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.200 I mean I actually wrote down the quote because it's 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.880 so striking when he said this is delivering. This budget 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:37.480 delivers the biggest business tax cut in modern British history. 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.839 I mean, is that once you're counting is it post war? 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:41.120 Yeah? 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:43.800 Exactly what is modern British history, I suppose is debatable 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:47.000 but is that credible? I mean, does it stand up 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.320 to your point? Ran seeing about where this money has 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:52.680 come from? Is it just because of inflation it has 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.600 been so high? I mean, what is it really going 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:57.880 to goose the economy? Is it really going to goose investment? 0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:00.000 And you know, is this I mean, we didn't see 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:01.600 the pound really moved. 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:04.720 You're probably relieved it wasn't the budget of last year 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:06.400 those traders. 0:09:06.240 --> 0:09:08.800 Right, we which we forget, don't we? 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:10.160 I was just twelve months ago. 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:11.920 We're anything that. 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:14.360 Not so many budget and I haven't checked in the 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:17.319 last few minutes. 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.160 But I think everything stable. 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:20.720 Well. I think they would say, if they were here, 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:22.760 that it's about the supply cide reforms. 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:25.840 So you use that phrase, right, yeah, you're complete? 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:29.880 Right? How are they defining modern history just to pick 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.760 the easy ones? And there is a kind of credit. 0:09:32.800 --> 0:09:34.560 I think our reporters are going to be writing about 0:09:34.600 --> 0:09:36.800 this right now. They're kind of you know, taking from 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:40.280 Paul to pay Peter. Rachel Reeves stood up and she 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:42.720 said this is pickpocketing. It wasn't a phrase I particularly 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:45.679 loved at the time, but her point was, you know, yes, 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:47.959 yes you're giving, but you've done it by taking through 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:50.000 fiscal drag and so on. So I think that's what 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:52.160 the question will be today day. If that's what right 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.920 now everyone be working out when they write their newspaper 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:56.800 headlines into tomorrow morning and so on. 0:09:57.120 --> 0:09:57.839 But I think what the. 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:02.640 Government would say is that this is a moment about firstly, 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:05.080 they are now starting the tax cutting that they have 0:10:05.160 --> 0:10:08.920 been promising they will do. But secondly, this is about 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:13.880 for me, less interesting than the planning elements, but certainly 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.520 the changes around trying to get more investment into the city, 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:20.160 trying to make London more attractive to list in, trying 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:22.840 to make sure that pensions are actually being invested in 0:10:22.920 --> 0:10:26.560 something that's risky rather than not risky, the full expensing, 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:28.640 and some one I think they think that that's what's 0:10:28.679 --> 0:10:30.320 going to get it going. Now, does it get it 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:33.800 going quickly enough? Does it get going you know, for 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.719 next the next year. Because it is interesting, we've talked 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.800 about it before. Labor back a lot of this because 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.280 if they come into government, this is this is. 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.360 This is the list of things aren't there. We've we've 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:46.640 we've analyzed these on this podcast over the month, So 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:48.560 like what is with London? What is up with the 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.880 London Stock Exchange, What are the rules that need to change? 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.480 What can we do about the appetite for risk among 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.200 institutional investors here? So that I think, you know, Jamie 0:10:57.240 --> 0:10:58.559 Hunt's been listening to our. 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:03.240 Podcast, but I guess if you put growth measures in place, 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:05.920 and the Ober put out a useful tweet moments ago 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:09.000 basically saying, look, if you look at how the Chancellor 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:13.199 is spending the fiscal improvements in twenty twenty seven twenty 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.280 twenty eight, he's just targeting three main measures right which 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.120 we mentioned, which is a two pea cut in the 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:23.200 National Insurance contribution, the permanent upfront tax right after business investment, 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.040 then welfare and health reforms. But is that going to 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:28.320 be inflationary because if they're creating a problem. So if 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.600 they're growing but creating a problem for the Bank of England, 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.280 who still had that two percent target, then it could 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.360 go south quite quickly in terms of the economy. 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.760 Another thing in the lead up, there was a lot 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:47.200 of talk about harnessing retail investors, wasn't there And okay, 0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.920 so we've got the nut West thing, but he certainly 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.800 didn't mention anything to do with ices that was going 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:56.920 to be a big part of this budget, and in 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.480 the last few days, certainly among the banks, there was 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.960 a so a sort of slight sense of concern that 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:07.880 there could be some kind of problems with how these 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:10.440 products might be sold to people in terms of making 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:14.280 people understand fully about risk. And I think there was 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.480 some concerns raised and maybe at the last minute some 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:17.840 of that stuff got put. 0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:20.960 On to winkle out. Catherine helved it. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:23.560 Yes, yes, exciting, yes. 0:12:24.160 --> 0:12:26.080 And how do we think Rachel Reeves did standing up 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.199 and responding to the speech. I mean she attacked the 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:31.320 downgrades and growth of the BAT, didn't she she did? 0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:33.280 I mean I think there is complexity to the downgrades 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:35.000 and growth, I think, and they're not quite as kind 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.800 of pro the labor positions as Reeves would have liked. 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:42.040 It's the most difficult job in politics responding no, no, no, no, no, 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.280 get up on your feet immediately. And I thought she 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:47.120 had some good repasts and I think, you know, her 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.480 attack of earlier in the year is probably going to 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:52.280 be the main one, which is, Okay, yes, you're giving 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:53.959 money away, but how have you paid for it? It's 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:56.480 from these people over there you're giving it. Well, it's 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.640 a kind of shuffling around accountancy rather than necessarily a 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.400 bonanza and giveaway, and I think that will be where 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:05.320 most people are right now as we as we speak, 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.320 are kind of winkling out the small print. 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:09.880 And they're sitting on a twenty point lead. Let's not 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.360 forget nothing is budged that up to this point. So 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:15.440 they're in a kind of position of strength here. It's 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.760 unclear whether any of these measures that hunters and an 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:19.880 ounces day is going to break through to those people 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:20.880 or quickly enough. 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.720 But I think I think labor will know that things 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.280 will will start to change closer to an election. But 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.040 you're completely right, they're sitting pretty right now. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.600 Do you think there's another budget before before the next 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.120 election or Dave, I mean this, you know, the timing 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:36.840 of the election can be quite crucial. 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.360 I mean, I thought it was telling as we as 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:41.839 we said that they're rushing through the tax cut on 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:48.280 an I to January. And to your point about the 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.680 sort of the political positioning of this around the business, 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.120 the very pro business points. So it does feel like 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:59.319 they're laying out what the campaign when it comes is 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:01.360 going to be full and it's not far away. 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.160 I mean, they have to do it January twenty twenty five. So, 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:06.360 and the thing that we always have to bear in 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.319 mind is that you know, it takes a while for 0:14:08.400 --> 0:14:11.880 these things to be felt in people's pockets. So I think, yes, 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.199 you know, rushing forward to January is significant and interesting, 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.880 not least because the one p was trailed and sort 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.080 of trailed or scooped who knows what anymore. But so 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.800 I think it is definitely substantial and interesting. But I think, come, what, 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:27.840 may you do it quickly because you want to say 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.520 you want to say, okay, for the last however many months, 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:32.560 you guys have had a bit more money in your pocket. 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:37.640 You're right, Fran, you know money in pocket can mean inflationary. 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.800 What I think we know about this lot is because 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.280 of what happened to Liz Trust and how it was 0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:48.000 such a catastrophic end for her and for all her 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.480 followers and so on. I think we know that they 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:53.840 are almost setting store by by being so different. So 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.440 I suspect all the relevant authorities and so on will 0:14:57.480 --> 0:14:59.080 have been sense checked on this well. 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.400 One of the other things that, of course, which was 0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.240 drowned out a bit by some of these measures, was 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.080 a cut in the forecast for growth next year as well, 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:08.840 So there might be a sense that the longer they 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:10.800 leave it for the election, you know, maybe the economic 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:12.760 news isn't as good next year as the months pass, 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.520 and maybe the spring. I mean, best guesses are the 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:18.560 autumn at this point, aren't they for the poll? 0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.120 But you know, I'm really laughing because we focus on 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.200 the economics and you're right there sort of they sort 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.560 of sort of switch around quite a lot. But also 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.320 there's two of those other pledges on the NHS and 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:32.480 on stop the boats, which are. 0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:36.040 Are are tricky, yes, tricky. 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.920 So we're talking about economics and thinking about the timing 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.800 of an election, but actually there's there's other aspects to 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:45.000 think about that that are that are proving elusive. 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:47.960 Make people richer, they'll forget the rest if you look 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:49.960 at the bond sale, also a program that they put 0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:51.960 in place, so they kind it compared to last year. 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:54.920 And again, this just feels like they think they have 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:58.200 more fiscal room right because they don't have to go 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:00.840 to the market so much because of what the OBR 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:02.800 announced a couple of weeks ago. So it just it 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:04.920 does feel like we're in a more stable footing. I 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:07.800 don't know, for how long, certainly compared to twelve months ago. 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:11.520 Yeah, it does, and then it's and then it's sort 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.640 of how they're kind of distributing their the goods, and 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:19.520 so yes, it's kind of quite sort of popular move 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.280 on tax cuts rather than while the sort of rhetoric, 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.440 and certainly some of the measures are around investment and 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:29.880 business investment, but they they definitely haven't gone as far 0:16:30.040 --> 0:16:33.200 on that side as people might have hoped. And you 0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:35.520 can obviously see why they as they head for an election. 0:16:35.680 --> 0:16:38.840 And I think that the full expensing is great, as 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:43.280 they said, you know, bet Semens, these huge companies are saying, fantastic, 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:44.120 this is Christmas. 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:47.880 But bet shares rocketed right right, But you know, we are. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.880 A service economy, so there's there is also a question 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:54.880 the extent to which it necessarily will help will help 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:57.120 people who can you know, once they've full expense the 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.840 laptop or five and what does it do for them? 0:16:59.880 --> 0:17:02.720 So I think, you know, it's obviously they are trying 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:04.680 to work out. They know they're in the doghouse with 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:08.040 business because corporation tax, so they're trying to do something 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:10.560 that shows that they are quote unquote the party of 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.800 business because I think you are seeing in this and 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:16.720 in other statements recently, this dividing line, which is Hunt Sunak, 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:18.760 we have done business. We know what it's like to 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.960 run businesses versus the others. Let's see if that's something 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:24.840 that cuts through with the electorate. So they want to 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:28.680 position themselves as the party of business, whether or you know, 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.560 they don't feel that cutting corporation tax was the right 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.200 thing to do. Rich she Stu next talked about that 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:36.920 in loads and loads, not least because it didn't help 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:40.800 with productivity. So they try something else. It's a different lever. 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.400 And is it Is it a lever that comes through 0:17:43.720 --> 0:17:45.399 with results anytime quickly? 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:46.400 Yeah? 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:48.800 And Catherine does it like, does it come through in 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:50.520 the next two years, three years? 0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:51.280 Yeah? 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:54.399 I think very hard to tell, but you know, in 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.480 terms of sort of the messaging in the restoric of course. 0:17:56.520 --> 0:17:58.720 So next week they're going to get all these big 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:02.280 names in from around the world, Jamie Diamond, David Solomon 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:05.000 from God sets to this big let's see investigation in 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:06.240 the UK, investment. 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:11.760 Steve Schwartzman, anyone. You know, we just have a couple 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:14.480 of Wall Street Titans showing up and just the odd 0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:16.760 one or two or may not come on the airwave. 0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:19.680 I'm sure they will, and then they'll say none of 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.000 this is enough, we want more. 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:24.840 But it will give I guess the hope if for 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.280 for Hunt and Sunak is some of these things today 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.240 will give them sort of some nice things to talk 0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:33.760 about next week amidst the splendor of Hampton Court. 0:18:34.280 --> 0:18:35.760 And that's all. The narrative is all part of this 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:38.760 narrative rights we've been saying. This is like, it's amazing, 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:41.440 isn't it. Just a year ago we had the the 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:43.840 implosion of that budget, we had the you know, the 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:47.000 attacking of the bean counters and all of this narrative, 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.040 and now it's like we're on another planet now and 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.800 that every action, whether it's convening Titans of Wall Street 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.159 in Hampton Court Palace or the messaging in this budget 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:58.040 seems to be wearing the square mar right and getting 0:18:58.080 --> 0:18:58.560 them on side. 0:18:59.119 --> 0:19:00.960 And he was quite need the Chancellor. I don't know 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.920 whether people become funny when the House of Commons. I 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.400 loved one of his jokes, which one he did a couple, 0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:07.080 I mean there was one. 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:11.320 Then I stopped myself to tell the listeners what the 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.680 joke is there's a plagiar that the Shadow Chancellor has 0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:18.639 been caught red handed by a newspaper investigation, and that 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.560 some passages from her book seemed to be lifted from 0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:24.040 Wikipedia and other places. 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.119 Which is just the gift for which is us. 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:28.920