Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak for Tuesday, July two. Coming up this hour, Good
Speaker 1: Nation grapples with gun violence, get again about the holiday weekend.
Speaker 1: There are forts of tariff talks between the US and China.
Speaker 1: It's a big band strategists warned of a continued growth
Speaker 1: slow down, and city groups says oil could be in
Speaker 1: for a major decline in event of a recession. U
Speaker 1: n B A star Britney grinder pleads with the president
Speaker 1: bike to get around in Russia. Plus fireworks lit up
Speaker 1: the sky in New York. I'm Michael bar More ahead
Speaker 1: and I Scott Zachberg and the bets when the Yankees
Speaker 1: were off. Plus enough there on Wimbledon. I'll have that
Speaker 1: more coming up in sports. That's all straight Ahead on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington,
Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine
Speaker 1: sixties and Francisco Syrius XM one nineteen and around the
Speaker 1: world on Bloomberger dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business Act.
Speaker 1: Good Morning on John Tucker in Moscow and US Dock
Speaker 1: Index futures are lower this morning. We are coming up
Speaker 1: to five oh one on Wall Street, and we check
Speaker 1: the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On
Speaker 1: Bloomberg SMP Future is down twenty two points down Future
Speaker 1: is down a hundred fifty nine and now Sday Future
Speaker 1: is down eighty four. The decks in Germany's down nine
Speaker 1: tenths of a percent. Ten year treasury down to thirty
Speaker 1: seconds yeld two point eight eight percent. They yield on
Speaker 1: the two year two point eight six percent. NIMEX s
Speaker 1: crude oil is up one point one percent of a
Speaker 1: dollar twenty one at a hundred nine dollars sixty four
Speaker 1: cents of barrel comex school that'll change at eighteen o
Speaker 1: one forty announced and the euro one point oh three
Speaker 1: oh six against the dollar, the n one thirty five
Speaker 1: point eight three, John, and we'll have more on the
Speaker 1: markets in a moment. Care and the first we begin
Speaker 1: in Highland Park, Illinois. We're a gunman opened fire on
Speaker 1: a rooftop up at an Independence Day parade yesterday, killing
Speaker 1: at least six people, wounding at least thirty others. Illinois
Speaker 1: Governor JB. Pritsker addressed the violence and in his carference,
Speaker 1: I'm furious. I'm furious that yet more innocent lives were
Speaker 1: taken by gun violence. I'm furious that their loved ones
Speaker 1: are forever broken by what took place today. I'm furious
Speaker 1: that children and their families have been traumatized. Illinois Governor JB.
Speaker 1: Pritsker speaking to President Biden after the incident as well.
Speaker 1: All The President also addressed the tragedy, saying more it
Speaker 1: needs to be done to curb gun violence. We got
Speaker 1: a lot more work to do. We gotta get this
Speaker 1: under control. A person of interest in the shooting was
Speaker 1: taken into custody late yesterday after a lengthy man hunt
Speaker 1: in the affluent community of Highland Park. There was also
Speaker 1: gun violence in Pennsylvania last night. Two police officers were
Speaker 1: shot in Philadelphia during festivities held near the city's Museum
Speaker 1: of Art. Philadelphia Police Commissioner Daniel Outlaws as the shooters
Speaker 1: motives were unclear. We don't know if this was ricochet
Speaker 1: from celebratory gunfire. We don't know if this was intentional.
Speaker 1: We don't know if this was someone taking a shot
Speaker 1: intentionally at these officers. Philadelphia Police Commissioner Daniel outlaws. As
Speaker 1: the officers have been treated and released, all right, Johnny
Speaker 1: turned out to Washington and the Biden administration could roll
Speaker 1: back some tariffs imposed by former President Trump. Senior U,
Speaker 1: s and Chinese officials discussed the matter last night, and
Speaker 1: what the White House calls candidate substantive discussions. There are
Speaker 1: expectations that the administration could remove levies to help these
Speaker 1: price increases on consumers, and we get more in this
Speaker 1: story from Bloomberg's Roof sin Horn. People familiar say that
Speaker 1: the White House has actually asked companies to make a
Speaker 1: commitment that if the US agrees to ease some of
Speaker 1: these tariffs, that companies will then pass those savings through
Speaker 1: two consumers. But people familiar say that executives of these
Speaker 1: companies said, well, no, we're not going to make that
Speaker 1: kind of commitment, and Bloomer's design Horner forts there are
Speaker 1: currently US tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in
Speaker 1: Chinese goods. However, senior members of the Biden administration appeared
Speaker 1: divided about the need to lift levies and US futures.
Speaker 1: Reacting positively initially to news of the US potentially lifting towers,
Speaker 1: they have since erased those gains. Still, the news is
Speaker 1: good for satiment. According to Dpac Mira, whose head of
Speaker 1: investments at Commercial Bank of Dubai, it's the recognition that
Speaker 1: the government is very conscious that they need to act
Speaker 1: on the supply side of the inflation issue because the
Speaker 1: FED has been slamming the brakes on the demand side,
Speaker 1: whereas the real issue is the supply. So I think
Speaker 1: trying to fix that issue is giving the markets a
Speaker 1: bit of ease and comfort that you know we are
Speaker 1: finally addressing the problem where where it is. Commercial Bank
Speaker 1: of Dubai's Dpac Mirrors says he expects the FED to
Speaker 1: keep hiking rates and slam the brakes on demand well. John.
Speaker 1: Turning to the economic outlook, one Goldman Sack strategist says
Speaker 1: the base case expectation is not for a US recession.
Speaker 1: God Pray gil Is, macro strategists for Global fixed Income
Speaker 1: at Goldman Sax, said management. She says, we may get
Speaker 1: a recession, but opportunity for investment will depend on its magnitude.
Speaker 1: We do expect continued monitory tightening. You may well see
Speaker 1: a technical recession, but what really matters when you're thinking
Speaker 1: about the investment landscape and opportunities and fixing consectus is
Speaker 1: the magnitude and instead of the characteristics of that recession.
Speaker 1: Goldman sacks macro strategistic or preate gil like expects growth
Speaker 1: to level off as rates had higher, and another major
Speaker 1: bank painting a grim picture for the economy. Boombergs really
Speaker 1: be young, joins us live with that story. We need
Speaker 1: the good morning, Good morning John. With the recent drop
Speaker 1: in bond yields, investors are betting the FIT makes are
Speaker 1: less hawkish if inflation peaks in the second half of
Speaker 1: the year, but Morgan Stanley says any drop in interest
Speaker 1: rates should be interpreted as more of a growth con
Speaker 1: stern rather than the FIT giving relief strategists. They say,
Speaker 1: if macroeconomic data do not confirm a recession, then equity
Speaker 1: markets could rally further. But if growth were to pull back,
Speaker 1: they say the S and P five may sink to
Speaker 1: three thousand points. That's about twenty two percent below its
Speaker 1: latest close. Live in New York, I'm really need a
Speaker 1: young Bloomberg daybreak. All right, we need to thank you
Speaker 1: for looking at oil now. City Group is worrying that
Speaker 1: crewe could collapse to sixty five dollars a barrel by
Speaker 1: the end of this year and slumped to forty five
Speaker 1: dollars by the end of next year. That's if we
Speaker 1: get hit by a demand crippling recession. The outlook is
Speaker 1: based on the absence of any intervention by OPEC and
Speaker 1: checking prices now, Ninemex screwed oil higher, up seven tenths
Speaker 1: percent at a hundred nine dollars fifteen cents of barrel.
Speaker 1: Brent is down half per cent of a a hundred twelve
Speaker 1: dollars ninety two cents, and overseas European equities they've turned
Speaker 1: lower after some initial optimism. Euro this morning weakening to
Speaker 1: the lowest level against the dollars is two thousand three
Speaker 1: and mean time in Asia stocks climbed overnight, and the
Speaker 1: futures this morning, as we said, moving lower. John SMP
Speaker 1: futures down twenty points right now, DAL futures down one forty,
Speaker 1: NASTACK futures down seventy nine, and Bitcoin is up four
Speaker 1: ten percent at nineteen thousand, eight hundred dollars. Straight and
Speaker 1: hand your latest local headlines plus a check of sports,
Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg. Thanks Karen, five O seven Wall
Speaker 1: Street can't time to bring in Michael Barr with Bora.
Speaker 1: What else is going on to New York end around
Speaker 1: the world, John, Thank you very much, Sarah. It was
Speaker 1: a fireworks show that did not disappoint. About three million
Speaker 1: people watched the Macy's fireworks show over the East River
Speaker 1: in New York City last night. One man from Queen's
Speaker 1: watching the show told a v C seven that we
Speaker 1: are resilient because we have survived a lot. W NBA
Speaker 1: player Britney Griner wrote the President Joe Biden, pleading with
Speaker 1: him to bring her and other Americans detained in Russia
Speaker 1: back home. According to the Associated Press, Grinder told Biden
Speaker 1: in the letter that she is terrified that I might
Speaker 1: be here forever. Representative for Grinder delivered the letter to
Speaker 1: the White House. Another step closer to joining NATO, Finland
Speaker 1: and Sweden foreign ministers are in Brussels today for the
Speaker 1: signing of the NATO accession protocols. NATO Secretary General Yen
Speaker 1: Stoltenberg open the meeting in Brussels today and we will
Speaker 1: formerly sign the protocols of accession. This marks the start
Speaker 1: of the ratification coursis. NATO's Yen Stoltenberg called today historic
Speaker 1: for Finland, Sweden, and NATO. The federal judges ruled in
Speaker 1: favor of three major US drug distributors in a two
Speaker 1: and a half billion dollar lawsuit, which had accused them
Speaker 1: of causing an opioid crisis in West Virginia County. The
Speaker 1: suit said Mckeeson, Maris, Source Bergen, and Cardinal Health distributed
Speaker 1: eighty one million pills over eight years in Cabell County
Speaker 1: ravaged by opie weight addiction. President Biden awards the Medal
Speaker 1: of Honored for Army soldiers today. They're being honored for
Speaker 1: their heroism in Vietnam. They include retired Major John Duffy,
Speaker 1: who was wounded twice during an ambush but refused to
Speaker 1: evacuate until the enemy could be subdued. Intudos awards are appreciated.
Speaker 1: They're recognizing your endeavors, your duty that you've done, and
Speaker 1: the the pride you have in your uniform that you've
Speaker 1: earned in combat. Along with retired Major Duffy, retired Specialist
Speaker 1: to white Birdwell will be honored and will be the
Speaker 1: first Native American awarded for service in any conflict since
Speaker 1: nineteen Global News twenty four hours a day on air
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg Quick Tank powered by more than twenty
Speaker 1: seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries.
Speaker 1: Mike bar In, this is Bloomberg, John Michael, thank you.
Speaker 1: It's on Wall Street. Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update.
Speaker 1: Good morning, Scott Seidenberg. Thanks John Tyawana Walker struck out
Speaker 1: nine in at six innings as the Mets beat the
Speaker 1: Reds yesterday seven four. Brandon Nimo and Francisco Lindor pulled
Speaker 1: homeward off Red starter Hunter Green, who has now allowed
Speaker 1: a Major League leading twenty two home runs this season.
Speaker 1: The Mets are the first n L team to fifty wings.
Speaker 1: Brandon Nimo on the team's first half success been a
Speaker 1: good first half. I don't think anybody would complain about it,
Speaker 1: but we also know that we have places that we
Speaker 1: can get better and that, you know, opportunities that um,
Speaker 1: we haven't taken advantage of. So to know that there's
Speaker 1: more in the tank, especially with Jake and Max coming
Speaker 1: back and Max Scherzer comes off the i L to
Speaker 1: make the start tonight his first since leaving the game
Speaker 1: back on May eight. Team the Yankees were off yesterday
Speaker 1: Tonight Jamison Tyone faces his former team the Pirates Tennis
Speaker 1: at Wimbledon. Rafa Nadal and Nick Curios advanced to the
Speaker 1: men's quarterfinals and a fourth of July tradition, as Joey
Speaker 1: Chestnut wins his fifteenth Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest despite
Speaker 1: being interrupted by a protester midway through. Chestnut down sixty
Speaker 1: three dogs to win his fifteenth title in the last
Speaker 1: sixteen years. I'm Scott Zeedinberg with Boomberg Sports. John all right,
Speaker 1: thanks Scott, and ahead of the market open, we did
Speaker 1: to see some green on the screen initially with US
Speaker 1: futures right now they are lower down futures turning down
Speaker 1: one dred ninety points. That's a decline of six tenths
Speaker 1: of per percent. SMP E many futures they're down twenty
Speaker 1: six points, that's down seven tenths per percent. And then
Speaker 1: as eighty many futures one points glory that is down
Speaker 1: nine tenths of a percent. The Euro one oh three
Speaker 1: eleven that is down a four percent against the dollar.
Speaker 1: His dollar d x y seems strength, and of dollar
Speaker 1: that's up eight tens of a percent. You're listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Day day Break brought to you by New York
Speaker 1: Community Trust. Your name will live on as a champion
Speaker 1: of the causes you care about for years to come.
Speaker 1: To a chantable bequest to the New York Community Trust.
Speaker 1: Markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Out, and at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Tape. This is a Bloombern business lash and
Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow. US dot Index futures and European equities
Speaker 1: are falling. It is concerned over the possibility of a recession.
Speaker 1: Outweighs optimism over US China talk saimed at tariff reductions,
Speaker 1: the Euro at a twenty year low. We checked the
Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg
Speaker 1: SMP future is down nineteen points down, futures down a
Speaker 1: hundred thirty six nasday futures down seventy five the decks
Speaker 1: in Germany's down nine tenths of upper cent and your
Speaker 1: treasury up one thirty second yield two point eight seven percent,
Speaker 1: a yield on the two year two point eight five percent.
Speaker 1: Nine max screwed oil is up seven tenths percent or
Speaker 1: seventy two cents at a hundred nine dollars. Thirteen cents
Speaker 1: of barrel co Max school is up tenth of upper
Speaker 1: cent or two dollars at eighteen o three fifty. Announce
Speaker 1: the euro one point oh three one three against the
Speaker 1: dollar again one thirty five point seven too at a
Speaker 1: British pound is at one point to zero four nine.
Speaker 1: Looking at bitcoin, it's up seven ten percent at nineteen thousand,
Speaker 1: nine hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's
Speaker 1: Muchael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Muchael,
Speaker 1: Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Police. A gunman on the
Speaker 1: rooftop opened fire on an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago,
Speaker 1: killing at least six people, wounding at least thirty, and
Speaker 1: sending hundreds of marchers, parents with strollers and children on
Speaker 1: bikes fleeing in terror. Police and Island Park say a
Speaker 1: person of interest, twenty two year old Robert Bobby cree Know,
Speaker 1: is now in custody in connection to the shooting. In Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: two police officers were shout and wounded during Fourth of
Speaker 1: July festivities held near the city's Museum of Art. So far,
Speaker 1: new arrests have been made in baseball, the Mets one,
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, Orioles and A's also one. The Nationals
Speaker 1: lost along with the Giants. Global News twenty four hours
Speaker 1: a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by
Speaker 1: more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than
Speaker 1: a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John, Michael,
Speaker 1: thank you. It is five nineteen on Well Straight. We
Speaker 1: are live for the Bloomberg Injuranto Broker Studios. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets reopening this morning after camping at
Speaker 1: Lemon declines in the past thirteen weeks. Let's get you
Speaker 1: set up for the trading day head this morning. I'm
Speaker 1: happy to say we're joined now by Dennis Gartman, economists
Speaker 1: the University of acron and Downmand Chair, former publisher of
Speaker 1: The Garment Letter. Dennis, I hope he had a great
Speaker 1: four ear good Tuesday morning to you. Have we shifted
Speaker 1: from inflation fears now to recession fears for investors? I
Speaker 1: don't think there's any question about that. We are. We
Speaker 1: are clearly shifting to recessionary concerns, and well we should.
Speaker 1: Inflation seems to be a baiting. Take a look at
Speaker 1: the green markets, they've turned lower. Take a look at
Speaker 1: at crude oil and as it's trading a hundred nine
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel instead of a hunting twenty two dollars
Speaker 1: a barrel. Take a look at the lumber it's down
Speaker 1: a rather substantially. Take a look at livestock prices, they're
Speaker 1: down over over time, things seem to be changing. And
Speaker 1: I pay a lot of attention to what happens in
Speaker 1: the grain markets, more than perhaps most other people do
Speaker 1: because they are so international in scope. But the news
Speaker 1: had been because of the war in uh in Ukraine,
Speaker 1: everybody wanted to be bullish of of the grain markets,
Speaker 1: and they've clearly topped out and gone to a lower concern.
Speaker 1: So I think recession is a far greater concern at
Speaker 1: this point. The Fed has begun the process of quantitative
Speaker 1: tightening rather than quantitative easing. The SAID clearly wants to
Speaker 1: raise the overnight SAID funds rate another seventy five five
Speaker 1: basis points, But far more important is what's going on
Speaker 1: in their quantitative tightening circumstances where they're gonna have to
Speaker 1: be either selling or rolling off sixty five billion dollars
Speaker 1: worth of the treasury securities on a monthly basis. That
Speaker 1: was the fuel that that that fueled the bull market
Speaker 1: in stocks, that was the fuel that fueled the bull
Speaker 1: market in the economy, and that is the fuel that's
Speaker 1: being taken away. So I think you have to be
Speaker 1: very careful. As the chairman of the University of ackmansendowmant
Speaker 1: I pushed the university to to sell about twelve of
Speaker 1: its portfolio of equities out of its endowment at the
Speaker 1: end of the last year. And I see no reason
Speaker 1: to change my opinion on that point. As I've always said,
Speaker 1: in the bearer market, here, she who loses the least
Speaker 1: will be the winner. And right now, that's the that's
Speaker 1: the operative opportunity, that's the operative circumstance. Here, she who
Speaker 1: loses the least will be the winner. Jumping in in
Speaker 1: any rally in the bearer market, is that fool's errant? Yes,
Speaker 1: So I think it's a fool's errand I think that
Speaker 1: you have to instead of For for long period of time,
Speaker 1: while Tina was the answer, there was no alternative. Tina
Speaker 1: has now become she's moved to the sidelines. Now there
Speaker 1: is an alternative. Higher interest rates are are are going
Speaker 1: to stap money out of the stock market. I think,
Speaker 1: as I said, the Fed is tightening monetary tightening monetary policy,
Speaker 1: and and so rallies and equities are to be sold
Speaker 1: into weaknesses, not to be bought. That's that may change
Speaker 1: in another three, four or five six months or so.
Speaker 1: The average duration of a bear market tends to be
Speaker 1: postal a year in duration. We started this on January five.
Speaker 1: We have another five or six months to go on
Speaker 1: the downside. How far much the lower stocks can go
Speaker 1: as anybody's guest, but I think the trend is from
Speaker 1: the upper left of the lower right well with slowing growth.
Speaker 1: I mean, does this alter the federal reserves trajectory at
Speaker 1: all over time? It shall, no question about it. But
Speaker 1: they they've told us, they made it a bundantly clear
Speaker 1: that they intend to raised the overnight said funds right
Speaker 1: at least seventy five basis points of the July meeting.
Speaker 1: They made it I think reasonably clear that they intend
Speaker 1: to raise another fifty basis points at the meeting. After that,
Speaker 1: they have to remain consistent and not back down from
Speaker 1: what they said in the past. So I think that
Speaker 1: the said funds rate goes another seventy and maybe a
Speaker 1: hundred twenty five basis points from here, then maybe later
Speaker 1: in the in the autumn, maybe later in the winter,
Speaker 1: the SAD can change his policies. But right now that
Speaker 1: has made it abundantly clear that it intends to raise
Speaker 1: the overnight said funds right, and it really has to
Speaker 1: do so, otherwise it loses credibility. Can you deliver probability
Speaker 1: of recession? If so, how long, how deep? Well, I've
Speaker 1: always said, since for the last three months, I said
Speaker 1: the odds of a recession in two or sixty seventy
Speaker 1: as long as if the overnight said sounds rate moved
Speaker 1: to an inversion and if the spot rate of w
Speaker 1: T I got above a hundred nine dollars a barrel
Speaker 1: were both. Clearly, we've been about above a hundred nine
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel. We have not gone to an aversion yet.
Speaker 1: So I'll continue to hold the fact that we've got
Speaker 1: a sixty to seventy percent probability of recession in two
Speaker 1: al raised at the greet because of the classical definition
Speaker 1: that a recession requires two consecutive declines in GDP for
Speaker 1: quarter over quarter, the second quarter GDP will probably be
Speaker 1: marginally higher. So given the fact that the first quarter
Speaker 1: GDP was negative, second quarter GDP will probably modestly positive.
Speaker 1: So it means that in order to justify the classical definition,
Speaker 1: we have to wait till the second, third or fourth
Speaker 1: quarter this year, and I think both those quarters will
Speaker 1: be negative GDP growth. Dennis, always a pleasure. Thanks for
Speaker 1: being with us this morning. Dennis Garment, University of Acronym
Speaker 1: downmand Chairman, former publisher of the Garpment Letter. Ahead of
Speaker 1: the cash elten on Wall Street futures right now in
Speaker 1: the red. The down futures down half a percent, one
Speaker 1: sixty five points lower, SMP evening futures down twenty two.
Speaker 1: That's down six tenths percent. Nancant futures eighty four points slower.
Speaker 1: That is down seven tenths of eight percent. Dollar d
Speaker 1: x Y that is of eight tenths of a percent
Speaker 1: continued dollar strength. Do y're all one oh three? That's
Speaker 1: down one percent. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg Daybreak, brought to
Speaker 1: you by the New York community. To trust your name
Speaker 1: will live on as a champion of the crosses you
Speaker 1: care about for years to come through a charitable bequest
Speaker 1: to the New York Community Trust. Learn more at Philanthropist
Speaker 1: dot n y C criadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive
Speaker 1: Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg vom Freedom to Washington,
Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one
Speaker 1: does San Francisco, Bloomberg NUN sixty to the Country, Sirius
Speaker 1: XM Cho one nine and around the globe, the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business apt and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's finally thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm John
Speaker 1: Tucker and I'm Karen Moscower. Just about four hours away
Speaker 1: from the open of you West Tray Daying. Let's get
Speaker 1: you have to day on the news you need to
Speaker 1: know at this hour. We begin in Highland Park, Illinois,
Speaker 1: where a gunman opened fire on a rooftop at an
Speaker 1: Independence Day parade yesterday, killing at least six people and
Speaker 1: wounding at least thirty others. Illinois Governor JB. Pritsker addressed
Speaker 1: the violence in a news conference. A little while ago,
Speaker 1: I spoke with President Biden, who pledged all support. The
Speaker 1: White House can provide the President agrees with me, this
Speaker 1: madness must stop. Illinois Governor JB. Pritsker, a person of
Speaker 1: interest in the shooting, was taken into custody late yesterday
Speaker 1: after a lengthy man hunt in the affluent community of
Speaker 1: Highland Park and now turning to Washington, this were the
Speaker 1: Biden administration could roll back some tariffs imposed by former
Speaker 1: President Trump. Senior US and Chinese officials discuss the matter
Speaker 1: last night and what the Lighthouse calls candidate and substantive discussions.
Speaker 1: There are expectations from the White House that removing levies
Speaker 1: could help ease inflation pressures on consumers. John turning the
Speaker 1: economy now, we may get a recession, but opportunity for
Speaker 1: investment could still be positive, depending on the magnitude of
Speaker 1: the slowdown. That's according to Goldman Sacks, macro strategist for
Speaker 1: Global Fitioned Income g freat GIL. Either way, she says,
Speaker 1: the labor market will feel a pinch. We'd say that
Speaker 1: the sandwich in sastety. We're going to have to monitor
Speaker 1: the data closely. The expectations for this show is for
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate to I mean stable, but both the
Speaker 1: pace of job games to motivate and Goldman sax macro
Speaker 1: Strategistic your preate Gil expects growth to level off as
Speaker 1: rate head higher. Meantime, another major bank painting a grim
Speaker 1: picture for the economy and Bloombergs were neither young joins
Speaker 1: us Live with that story. We need the good morning,
Speaker 1: Good morning John. With the recent drop in bond yields,
Speaker 1: investors are betting the fit may turn less Hawkis if
Speaker 1: inflation peaks in the second half of the year, but
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley says if any drop in interest rates happened,
Speaker 1: it should be interpreted as more of a growth concern
Speaker 1: rather than the Fed giving relief. Strategists there say if
Speaker 1: growth were to pull back, the may sink to three
Speaker 1: thousand points, that's about below its latest clothes Live in
Speaker 1: New York. I'm gonna need a young Bloomberg day break.
Speaker 1: We need to thank you. And looking at oil this morning,
Speaker 1: City groups warning crewde could collapse to sixty five dollars
Speaker 1: a barrel by the end of this year and slumped
Speaker 1: to forty five dollars by the end of next year
Speaker 1: should a demand crippling recession hit. Checking prices right now
Speaker 1: and now I'm x screwed oil love about half percent
Speaker 1: at a hundred eight dollars ninety three cents of barrel
Speaker 1: Brent is lower and a hundred twelve dollars seventy four
Speaker 1: cents your local headlines straight ahead and this is Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: all right. Thanks Carty three on Wall Street. Time to
Speaker 1: bring in Michael bar with more on what else is
Speaker 1: going out of New York and around the world. John,
Speaker 1: thank you very much. It was a fireworks show that
Speaker 1: did not disappoint. The May Seas fireworks show lit up
Speaker 1: the sky over the East River in New York City
Speaker 1: Line US night. About three million people watched the show.
Speaker 1: After more than four months of ferocious fighting, Russia claimed
Speaker 1: full of control over one of two provinces in Ukraine's
Speaker 1: eastern industrial heartland. However, there are signs Russia is sustaining
Speaker 1: heavy losses. Another step closer to joining NATO. Finland and
Speaker 1: Sweden foreign ministers are in Brussels today to start the
Speaker 1: ratification process. NATO Secretary General Yen Stoldenberg open the meeting
Speaker 1: in Brussels. This is truly unhistoric moments for Finland, for
Speaker 1: Sweden and Fort NATO. NATO, Jen Stoltenberg w NBA Star
Speaker 1: Britney Grinder sent a letter to President Biden. Grinder, who
Speaker 1: is being detained in a Moscow prison, told the President,
Speaker 1: I'm terrified I might be here forever. Grinder adds she
Speaker 1: misses her wife, her family, and her teammates, while making
Speaker 1: a direct plead to the President, writing I realize you
Speaker 1: are dealing with so much, but lease don't forget about
Speaker 1: me and the other American detainees. President Biden awards the
Speaker 1: Medal of Honor to four Army soldiers today for their
Speaker 1: heroism in Vietnam. They include retired Specialist to White Birdwell,
Speaker 1: who took enemy fire to his face and torso but
Speaker 1: still managed to get his commander to safety and disrupt
Speaker 1: the enemy assault. Quite a way to celebrate the fourth
Speaker 1: saved my fellow serviceman. I did it twice. Went into
Speaker 1: an enemy hell bellis at night, couldn't see. The only
Speaker 1: light was elimination from the enemy fire at our fire.
Speaker 1: Retired Specialist to Wade Birdwell will be the first Native
Speaker 1: American awarded for service in any conflict since ninety three.
Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day on air and
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven under
Speaker 1: journalist and analysts more than twenty countries. Michael Barr And
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg Own, Michael, Thank you, Yes how five
Speaker 1: thirty five on Wall Street Tips. Time for the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Sports Update, and you're Scott Seidenberg. Good morning, John. Another
Speaker 1: solid outing from Taiwan Walker as he struck out nine
Speaker 1: in six innings as the Mets beat the Reds yesterday
Speaker 1: seven to four. Dom Smith, who had a two run
Speaker 1: double in the game, talked about Walker afterwards. I think
Speaker 1: it's been awful. He's just selling like uh what he
Speaker 1: said his last year when he was an All Star,
Speaker 1: So it's something that he's capable of doing. Brandon Nemo
Speaker 1: and Francisco Adore both homered in the win. The Mets
Speaker 1: are the first n L team to fifty wins this season.
Speaker 1: And tonight, welcome back Max Scherzer, making his first start
Speaker 1: since leaving the game back on May eight. Team the Yankees. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: we're off yesterday Tonight, Jamison Tyone faces the Pirates, his
Speaker 1: former team. Tennis at Wimbledon, Rafa Nadal and Nick Kurios
Speaker 1: advanced to the quarterfinals and a fourth of July tradition
Speaker 1: as Joey Chestnut wins his fifteenth Nathan's Hot Dog Eating
Speaker 1: contest despite being in a opted by a protester midway
Speaker 1: through Chestnut down sixty three dogs. When his fifteenth title
Speaker 1: in the last sixteen years. I'm Scott Seedinberg with Bloomberg Sports.
Speaker 1: John all Right, Scott, thanks a lot. It's five thirty
Speaker 1: seven on Wall Street. Time down for the Bloomberg Tri
Speaker 1: State Business Report. For that We're joined by ed Query.
Speaker 1: The Hampton's COVID era buying frenzy is the thing of
Speaker 1: the past. May sales numbers were lackluster, according to a
Speaker 1: Douglas Element report, with new signed contract for single family
Speaker 1: homes down thirty eight percent from last May. Even his
Speaker 1: fourteen percent more listings came onto the market. Sales at
Speaker 1: Prent de mon J cafes near Wall Street are still
Speaker 1: only half of what they were before the pandemic. As
Speaker 1: COVID cases increase in New York City, the new wave
Speaker 1: is curbing bags ambitions to bring workers back. Bloomberg's Prett
Speaker 1: Index shows that transactions in New York's financial center have
Speaker 1: hovered around the fifty percent mark for weeks. Givon She
Speaker 1: has opened its first location town to New York's Soho neighborhood,
Speaker 1: Located at nine Green Street, The thirty square foot boutique
Speaker 1: is the brand's sixth freestanding location in the Americas and
Speaker 1: the first to open in four years. It's also givon
Speaker 1: She's second Manhattan location. That your Bloomberg Dry State Business Report.
Speaker 1: I med Corey. Alright, thanks said. It is five thirty
Speaker 1: seven on Wall Street, and Bloomberg Radio is on the
Speaker 1: year from San Francisco to New York, London to Hong Kong.
Speaker 1: Let's check in now with our global news team for
Speaker 1: some of the top stories heard on our three hundred
Speaker 1: at Philligate radio stations around the world. Corney Donaho on
Speaker 1: ktr H in Houston City Bank is warning oil may
Speaker 1: collapse to sixty dollars for recession heads. I'm Gina Servetti
Speaker 1: and for wfl A in Orlando. We're looking ahead to
Speaker 1: Friday and the June jobs report. IM mace Mateo and
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Speaker 1: cutbacks could affect your viewing pleasure. I'm Stephen carl and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg d A Begical Radio in London. We've been reporting
Speaker 1: on shares surging for the German gas giant Unipower after
Speaker 1: Bloomberg report it talks over a government failu. I'm in
Speaker 1: gory on w w J in Detroit. I'm reporting Kellogg
Speaker 1: he's lost a bit to block the UK's new curbs
Speaker 1: on the promotion of unhealthy food and those are some
Speaker 1: of these stories are twenty seven Bloomberg journalists and analysts
Speaker 1: are working on this morning around the world. It's five
Speaker 1: thirty nine on Wall Street. The following is an editorial
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Opinion. Later in July, the U s public
Speaker 1: health emergency that's been in place since early is scheduled
Speaker 1: to end. One unanticipated consequence, millions of Americans could lose
Speaker 1: their health insurance. Here's why. In the early days of
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen, the government offered states extra Medicaid funding so
Speaker 1: long as they didn't boot anyone off the program during
Speaker 1: the public health emergency. Whenever the emergency ends, and it
Speaker 1: could be extended further, states will need to restart eligibility
Speaker 1: assessments for more than eighty million Medicaid beneficiaries. Millions could
Speaker 1: lose their coverage in the process. Federal and state officials
Speaker 1: will need to work closely to prevent this from happening.
Speaker 1: For example, the federal government could phase down its extra
Speaker 1: medicaid payments slowly, encouraging states to reassess their rosters more methodically,
Speaker 1: and reducing the risk of administrative errors. Pandemic error spending
Speaker 1: won't last forever, but lawmakers can smooth the transition to
Speaker 1: avoid a crisis. This editorial was written by the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Opinion Editorial Board. I'm David Shipley. For more Bloomberg Opinion,
Speaker 1: please go to Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion or ope
Speaker 1: and go on the Bloomberg terminal. These has been Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Opinion and Bloomberg Opinion Editorial is going to be heard
Speaker 1: every week day at this time. Terminal customers can read
Speaker 1: more at op I an go ahead of the cash
Speaker 1: open on Wall Street. The dawn of futures on four
Speaker 1: point slower. That's down half a percent, as and p
Speaker 1: E many futures down twenty points. That's down half of percent. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the domesday futures seventy six points lower, that is down
Speaker 1: seven tenths of a percent. Euro at one oh three
Speaker 1: down one percent against the dollar. Dollar d x Y
Speaker 1: showing strength this morning up nine tenths of a percent.
Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg team break still ahead of the
Speaker 1: US rolls back terrafs on Chinese goods, we'll have much
Speaker 1: of an impact on inflation. We'll put that question to
Speaker 1: end occurring the chief the ancient economics correspondent for Bloomberg News, Markets,
Speaker 1: headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business apt and at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Tape. This is a Bloomberg business lash, and I'm
Speaker 1: kerin Moscow and yous Dock. Index futures and European equities
Speaker 1: are falling as concerned over the possibility of or accession
Speaker 1: outweighs optimism over US China talks aimed at tariff reductions.
Speaker 1: The Euro around at twenty year low. We checked the
Speaker 1: markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Guess and p future is down twenty two points down,
Speaker 1: futures down one hundred sixty two and NASDAG futures down
Speaker 1: eighty eight. The decks in Germany's down one point two percent,
Speaker 1: The ten year treasury down three thirties seconds, yield two
Speaker 1: point eight nine percent yield on the two year two
Speaker 1: point eight eight percent Nimex screw oil little change at
Speaker 1: a hundred eight dollars thirty seven cents of barrel comics
Speaker 1: gold is a tenth of a percent or two dollars
Speaker 1: fifty cents. At eighteen o four announced the euro one
Speaker 1: point oh two nine one against the dollar, the British
Speaker 1: found one point two zero three seven and the end
Speaker 1: of one thirty five point seven three bitcoin. It's lower
Speaker 1: down four ten percent at nineteen thousand and six hundred
Speaker 1: seventy dollars. That's a bloomberg business flash. Now here's Muchael
Speaker 1: Barr with more on what's going on around the world.
Speaker 1: Muncale Karen, thank you very much. A gunman on the
Speaker 1: rooftop opened fire on an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago,
Speaker 1: killing at least six people, wounding at least thirty others.
Speaker 1: Police and Island Park said. The man, named as a
Speaker 1: person of interest and the shooting, was taken into police
Speaker 1: custody last night after an hour's long manhunt. To Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Police officers have been released from the hospital after they
Speaker 1: was shot during the Fourth of July celebration where they
Speaker 1: were working security. It is unclear whether the shootings were intentional,
Speaker 1: and there have been no arrest so far. In baseball,
Speaker 1: the Met's one, the Red Sox Orioles and A's also one.
Speaker 1: The Nationals lost along with the giants. Global News twenty
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Speaker 1: hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John, Michael,
Speaker 1: thank you. It is five forty nine on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: We are live for the Bloomberg interrant to Broker Studios,
Speaker 1: Well investors sentiment was getting a bit of a lift
Speaker 1: this morning on where the Biden administration may be close
Speaker 1: to cutting tariffs on Chinese goods and a current is
Speaker 1: our achieved Asia Economics correspondent joining us this morning with
Speaker 1: the tails, So what do we do at this point?
Speaker 1: And so John, there are a couple of things going
Speaker 1: on this morning. We had a read out of the
Speaker 1: coal between top of US and Chinese economic officials. On
Speaker 1: the Chinese side led by the Vice Premier and the
Speaker 1: U s I led by the Treasury Secretary. They discussed
Speaker 1: tariffs on goods, They discuse functions, and they discussed every
Speaker 1: where there could be perhaps corporation around ensuring global supply
Speaker 1: chains are functioning smoothly. And they're like, we didn't get
Speaker 1: much more details and that, but that call was the
Speaker 1: first such calls in October, and it does add momentum
Speaker 1: to this idea that our colleagues are reporting out of
Speaker 1: Washington that the Biden administration moving towards listening tariffs off
Speaker 1: at least some Chinese goods. Now, we don't yet have
Speaker 1: the exact details on what's coming down the pipe there
Speaker 1: in terms of what good it will be, will it
Speaker 1: be industrial or consumer, and by how much of those
Speaker 1: tarr will be reduced, and what kind of time frame
Speaker 1: it will be unindeed whether or not China will reciprocate.
Speaker 1: But you know, as you say, on a headline basis,
Speaker 1: it looks like some progress on China US trade talks,
Speaker 1: but fairly incremental, and I would I wouldn't say it
Speaker 1: changes the overall back drop of tension between both governments.
Speaker 1: Would this be unilateral or do we have to wait
Speaker 1: for China move to move We don't have a sense
Speaker 1: on that from more reporting, Yes, John, I mean you'd
Speaker 1: have to think on the U S side, for example,
Speaker 1: this is being driven by the inflation story. Is there? However,
Speaker 1: economists this morning we're actually reacting that if you were
Speaker 1: to roll back these twers, the impact would be fairly
Speaker 1: music in terms of what it would do to bring
Speaker 1: down US inflation, in which case you got to have
Speaker 1: you have to have ben how much of very political
Speaker 1: hit with President Bible will take go into the own
Speaker 1: mid term elections over there. So there's a lot that
Speaker 1: he has to consider about in terms of US. He
Speaker 1: doesn't want to be seems being soft each on it,
Speaker 1: in which case are very the question what would trying
Speaker 1: to do in return? Would they do anything in return?
Speaker 1: I think that's going to become one of the talking
Speaker 1: parts we have reported out of Washington before that they
Speaker 1: there might be a call between she and Biden over
Speaker 1: the summer months, or perhaps we might get detailed closer
Speaker 1: to them. Hey remind everybody when the terrorists were imposed
Speaker 1: in the first place. The broad back DUP was complaints
Speaker 1: of unfair trade against China by the US government under
Speaker 1: the then President Trump. Be thinking was that China undervalues
Speaker 1: its currency, that they don't allow fair access to its markets,
Speaker 1: and of course they were accused of staff drive intellectual
Speaker 1: property China, of course pushes back on those charges, but
Speaker 1: nonetheless the U S push ahead with tariffs on merchandise,
Speaker 1: goods and good divorce under building US dollars. It didn't
Speaker 1: do much about to slow Chinese exports to the US.
Speaker 1: In fact, Chinese exports and trade circlets grew during the
Speaker 1: pandemic given the appetite for the US consumers to bide
Speaker 1: on goods. I should say, by the way, on the
Speaker 1: flip side, if the cars do come down, neither are
Speaker 1: they expected to do much for shiny manufacturers this time.
Speaker 1: They are suffering now from slowing demand and in the
Speaker 1: U S T T inflation. And again this morning most
Speaker 1: people were saying that the stars from down that won't
Speaker 1: really change our story either, all right, and will leave
Speaker 1: it there. Thanks very much for the up They appreciate
Speaker 1: it and the current Bloomberg Chief Asia Economics correspondent Karen,
Speaker 1: thank you and Bluebirg. Daybreak brought to you by in
Speaker 1: for Emnica and the Cloud. Your data has the power
Speaker 1: to do the extraordinary. Managed data across any location in
Speaker 1: the cloud for accurate and actionable insights. More at Informatica
Speaker 1: dot com. It is five fifty two on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: Time for our Bloomberg the Law Report. Let's get to
Speaker 1: the legal stories we're watching this morning. From Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger, co.
Speaker 1: Settlement filed in a New York state court indicates Google
Speaker 1: agreed to pay twenty two million dollars to resolve claims
Speaker 1: of gender and racial bias in job assignments. A former
Speaker 1: North Eastern University employee accuses the Boston based school of
Speaker 1: filling its retirement plan with high costs, underperforming investments, and
Speaker 1: allowing the plan to pay excessive administrative fees. A music
Speaker 1: industry used release as the Copyright Royalty Board restored an
Speaker 1: increase in the royalty rate to be paid to songwriters
Speaker 1: by streamers such as Spotify. Bloomberg Law everything you need,
Speaker 1: all on one legal research platform, including guidance analysis and
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Market Intelligence. Find out more at Bloomberg Law dot com.
Speaker 1: All right, Jeff, thank you. Now. Another legal story we're watching.
Speaker 1: On the last day of the term, the Supreme Court
Speaker 1: issued a blockbuster decision limiting the environment O Protection Agencies
Speaker 1: authority to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, handcuffing
Speaker 1: the Bonden administration and its efforts to tackle climate change.
Speaker 1: The decision was six to three down ideological lines, and
Speaker 1: the theory the court used to justify the ruling could
Speaker 1: have serious ramifications for federal agencies. For more of the
Speaker 1: rstud in Grosso speaks to environmental law professor Pat Parento
Speaker 1: at the Vermont Law School. Pat President Biden called this
Speaker 1: another devastating decision that aims to take our country backwards?
Speaker 1: Is it that ruinous? Yeah, I don't think it's that bad.
Speaker 1: I understand why he's saying that. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: the sheer fact that the Supreme Court did not take
Speaker 1: into account the reason that e p A was adopting
Speaker 1: this rule, which was to deal with the existential threat
Speaker 1: of climate change, is jaw dropping. I mean, how can
Speaker 1: the court not take account of what the agency is
Speaker 1: trying to do in the face of the threat? Right, So,
Speaker 1: Biden is right to say it's devastating in the sense
Speaker 1: that we don't have a court that is willing to
Speaker 1: seriously engage with the nature of the problem that regulations
Speaker 1: are trying to deal with. That is devastating, But the
Speaker 1: effect of the decision itself, that's not devastating. For example,
Speaker 1: e p A has right now in the works four
Speaker 1: other rules that are aim that coal fired power plants.
Speaker 1: What I'm saying is, yes, e p A lost a
Speaker 1: major tool with the West Virginia decision, but they're not helpless.
Speaker 1: They have other ways of hastening the end of the
Speaker 1: coal era. And I do think Cole is the walking dead.
Speaker 1: I think we're going to be done with Cole within
Speaker 1: a decade. Even without this rule, the marketplace is already
Speaker 1: moving our energy system in the right direction. The Chief
Speaker 1: uses the so called major questions doctrine. This is the
Speaker 1: first time a majority opinion has explicitly used that doctrine
Speaker 1: to justify a ruling. Yes, this new version of major
Speaker 1: question is problematic because you know, we don't know what
Speaker 1: major means. You know, a rule can have major effects
Speaker 1: that could be beneficial. You know they're big, but they're good.
Speaker 1: The Court doesn't distinguish between something that's big and good
Speaker 1: or big and bad. It just sort of says, if
Speaker 1: an agency comes up with the confused anyway as a
Speaker 1: new interpretation of an old statue. And by the way,
Speaker 1: in the West Virginia case, Roberts goes out of his
Speaker 1: way to make fun of this provision that EPA is
Speaker 1: relying on He called it the backwater provision. It's like
Speaker 1: what I mean, it's the law Congress doesn't write statutes
Speaker 1: and say here are the really important provisions. The rest
Speaker 1: of them don't worry about it. So this is a
Speaker 1: matter of convenience for the court if it doesn't like
Speaker 1: the rule the agency has adopted. If the Court majority
Speaker 1: thinks an agency is quote driving outside its lane or
Speaker 1: arrogating new authority to itself, then it's going to say,
Speaker 1: that's a major question. We give you no difference. We're
Speaker 1: going to rule as a matter of law, you just
Speaker 1: simply can't do it. And as Professor Pat Parento at
Speaker 1: the Vermont Law School speaking with the Bloomberg Student grounds,
Speaker 1: So catch more of that interview plus analysis of the
Speaker 1: latest legal news by subscribing to the Bloomberg Law Podcast
Speaker 1: or downloading the show at Bloomberg dot com slash podcasts.
Speaker 1: Attorneys can find exceptional legal research and business development tools
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Law dot com and on the Bloomberg terminal
Speaker 1: at b Law. Go s ANDP futures lower this morning,
Speaker 1: down about eighteen points down. Futures are down one every
Speaker 1: thirty one, and NASDAG futures down as seventy two. The
Speaker 1: ten year Treasury down four thirty seconds, yield two point
Speaker 1: eight nine percent. A yield on a two year is
Speaker 1: at two point eight nine percent as well. Not an
Speaker 1: ex screwed oil up tenth of upper cent or fifteen
Speaker 1: cents at a hundred eight dollars fifty seven cents of
Speaker 1: barrel and comex school the tenth of upper cent at
Speaker 1: eighteen oh three thirty announce Still ahead on Bloomberg day
Speaker 1: break and check on the business headlines and all the
Speaker 1: news you need to start your day. And this is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg