WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: July 5, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:05.920 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brooker Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:10.080 Daybreak for Tuesday, July two. Coming up this hour, Good 0:00:10.160 --> 0:00:13.520 Nation grapples with gun violence, get again about the holiday weekend. 0:00:13.880 --> 0:00:16.760 There are forts of tariff talks between the US and China. 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:20.040 It's a big band strategists warned of a continued growth 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.560 slow down, and city groups says oil could be in 0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:26.000 for a major decline in event of a recession. U 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:28.680 n B A star Britney grinder pleads with the president 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:32.120 bike to get around in Russia. Plus fireworks lit up 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:35.000 the sky in New York. I'm Michael bar More ahead 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:37.479 and I Scott Zachberg and the bets when the Yankees 0:00:37.479 --> 0:00:39.960 were off. Plus enough there on Wimbledon. I'll have that 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:45.519 more coming up in sports. That's all straight Ahead on 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:51.080 Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.520 d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.720 sixties and Francisco Syrius XM one nineteen and around the 0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:09.440 world on Bloomberger dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.959 Good Morning on John Tucker in Moscow and US Dock 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:18.039 Index futures are lower this morning. We are coming up 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:19.680 to five oh one on Wall Street, and we check 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:22.200 the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.759 Bloomberg SMP Future is down twenty two points down Future 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.240 is down a hundred fifty nine and now Sday Future 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:30.920 is down eighty four. The decks in Germany's down nine 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.800 tenths of a percent. Ten year treasury down to thirty 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.280 seconds yeld two point eight eight percent. They yield on 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.200 the two year two point eight six percent. NIMEX s 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.600 crude oil is up one point one percent of a 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:43.840 dollar twenty one at a hundred nine dollars sixty four 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.600 cents of barrel comex school that'll change at eighteen o 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:49.440 one forty announced and the euro one point oh three 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.760 oh six against the dollar, the n one thirty five 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:54.040 point eight three, John, and we'll have more on the 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.040 markets in a moment. Care and the first we begin 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.360 in Highland Park, Illinois. We're a gunman opened fire on 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:03.840 a rooftop up at an Independence Day parade yesterday, killing 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:06.880 at least six people, wounding at least thirty others. Illinois 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:10.519 Governor JB. Pritsker addressed the violence and in his carference, 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:15.520 I'm furious. I'm furious that yet more innocent lives were 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:19.200 taken by gun violence. I'm furious that their loved ones 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:23.119 are forever broken by what took place today. I'm furious 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:28.359 that children and their families have been traumatized. Illinois Governor JB. 0:02:28.480 --> 0:02:31.840 Pritsker speaking to President Biden after the incident as well. 0:02:31.880 --> 0:02:35.280 All The President also addressed the tragedy, saying more it 0:02:35.400 --> 0:02:40.240 needs to be done to curb gun violence. We got 0:02:40.240 --> 0:02:42.320 a lot more work to do. We gotta get this 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:45.520 under control. A person of interest in the shooting was 0:02:45.560 --> 0:02:48.960 taken into custody late yesterday after a lengthy man hunt 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:51.720 in the affluent community of Highland Park. There was also 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:55.240 gun violence in Pennsylvania last night. Two police officers were 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:59.120 shot in Philadelphia during festivities held near the city's Museum 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:03.360 of Art. Philadelphia Police Commissioner Daniel Outlaws as the shooters 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:07.560 motives were unclear. We don't know if this was ricochet 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.680 from celebratory gunfire. We don't know if this was intentional. 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.320 We don't know if this was someone taking a shot 0:03:13.360 --> 0:03:17.280 intentionally at these officers. Philadelphia Police Commissioner Daniel outlaws. As 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:20.639 the officers have been treated and released, all right, Johnny 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:23.800 turned out to Washington and the Biden administration could roll 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:27.200 back some tariffs imposed by former President Trump. Senior U, 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:29.679 s and Chinese officials discussed the matter last night, and 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:33.799 what the White House calls candidate substantive discussions. There are 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:37.160 expectations that the administration could remove levies to help these 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:40.080 price increases on consumers, and we get more in this 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.760 story from Bloomberg's Roof sin Horn. People familiar say that 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.840 the White House has actually asked companies to make a 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:50.160 commitment that if the US agrees to ease some of 0:03:50.200 --> 0:03:53.680 these tariffs, that companies will then pass those savings through 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:58.000 two consumers. But people familiar say that executives of these 0:03:58.000 --> 0:03:59.640 companies said, well, no, we're not going to make that 0:03:59.720 --> 0:04:02.800 kind of commitment, and Bloomer's design Horner forts there are 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:05.360 currently US tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:09.360 Chinese goods. However, senior members of the Biden administration appeared 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.920 divided about the need to lift levies and US futures. 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:17.640 Reacting positively initially to news of the US potentially lifting towers, 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:20.840 they have since erased those gains. Still, the news is 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.839 good for satiment. According to Dpac Mira, whose head of 0:04:23.880 --> 0:04:28.680 investments at Commercial Bank of Dubai, it's the recognition that 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:31.520 the government is very conscious that they need to act 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:36.000 on the supply side of the inflation issue because the 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:39.120 FED has been slamming the brakes on the demand side, 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.040 whereas the real issue is the supply. So I think 0:04:42.120 --> 0:04:46.200 trying to fix that issue is giving the markets a 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:50.120 bit of ease and comfort that you know we are 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:53.719 finally addressing the problem where where it is. Commercial Bank 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:56.640 of Dubai's Dpac Mirrors says he expects the FED to 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.440 keep hiking rates and slam the brakes on demand well. John. 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:03.719 Turning to the economic outlook, one Goldman Sack strategist says 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:07.120 the base case expectation is not for a US recession. 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:10.680 God Pray gil Is, macro strategists for Global fixed Income 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.840 at Goldman Sax, said management. She says, we may get 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:17.760 a recession, but opportunity for investment will depend on its magnitude. 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:21.400 We do expect continued monitory tightening. You may well see 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.880 a technical recession, but what really matters when you're thinking 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:28.560 about the investment landscape and opportunities and fixing consectus is 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:33.080 the magnitude and instead of the characteristics of that recession. 0:05:33.400 --> 0:05:36.680 Goldman sacks macro strategistic or preate gil like expects growth 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:40.040 to level off as rates had higher, and another major 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:44.039 bank painting a grim picture for the economy. Boombergs really 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.280 be young, joins us live with that story. We need 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.760 the good morning, Good morning John. With the recent drop 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.480 in bond yields, investors are betting the FIT makes are 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:54.240 less hawkish if inflation peaks in the second half of 0:05:54.279 --> 0:05:57.520 the year, but Morgan Stanley says any drop in interest 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:59.880 rates should be interpreted as more of a growth con 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.800 stern rather than the FIT giving relief strategists. They say, 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.600 if macroeconomic data do not confirm a recession, then equity 0:06:07.600 --> 0:06:10.679 markets could rally further. But if growth were to pull back, 0:06:10.760 --> 0:06:12.880 they say the S and P five may sink to 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:16.520 three thousand points. That's about twenty two percent below its 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:19.479 latest close. Live in New York, I'm really need a 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:21.520 young Bloomberg daybreak. All right, we need to thank you 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:23.760 for looking at oil now. City Group is worrying that 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:26.280 crewe could collapse to sixty five dollars a barrel by 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:28.599 the end of this year and slumped to forty five 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:30.760 dollars by the end of next year. That's if we 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:33.680 get hit by a demand crippling recession. The outlook is 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.240 based on the absence of any intervention by OPEC and 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.680 checking prices now, Ninemex screwed oil higher, up seven tenths 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.160 percent at a hundred nine dollars fifteen cents of barrel. 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.600 Brent is down half per cent of a a hundred twelve 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:48.479 dollars ninety two cents, and overseas European equities they've turned 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:52.640 lower after some initial optimism. Euro this morning weakening to 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.719 the lowest level against the dollars is two thousand three 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:00.279 and mean time in Asia stocks climbed overnight, and the 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:03.120 futures this morning, as we said, moving lower. John SMP 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:06.839 futures down twenty points right now, DAL futures down one forty, 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.200 NASTACK futures down seventy nine, and Bitcoin is up four 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.520 ten percent at nineteen thousand, eight hundred dollars. Straight and 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.560 hand your latest local headlines plus a check of sports, 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:25.240 and this is Bloomberg. Thanks Karen, five O seven Wall 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:27.800 Street can't time to bring in Michael Barr with Bora. 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:30.560 What else is going on to New York end around 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.960 the world, John, Thank you very much, Sarah. It was 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:40.680 a fireworks show that did not disappoint. About three million 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:44.160 people watched the Macy's fireworks show over the East River 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:47.239 in New York City last night. One man from Queen's 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:50.800 watching the show told a v C seven that we 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:56.080 are resilient because we have survived a lot. W NBA 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.280 player Britney Griner wrote the President Joe Biden, pleading with 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:02.480 him to bring her and other Americans detained in Russia 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:06.680 back home. According to the Associated Press, Grinder told Biden 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.800 in the letter that she is terrified that I might 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.480 be here forever. Representative for Grinder delivered the letter to 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:17.160 the White House. Another step closer to joining NATO, Finland 0:08:17.200 --> 0:08:20.480 and Sweden foreign ministers are in Brussels today for the 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:25.920 signing of the NATO accession protocols. NATO Secretary General Yen 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:29.640 Stoltenberg open the meeting in Brussels today and we will 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:34.520 formerly sign the protocols of accession. This marks the start 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:40.800 of the ratification coursis. NATO's Yen Stoltenberg called today historic 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:44.440 for Finland, Sweden, and NATO. The federal judges ruled in 0:08:44.480 --> 0:08:48.480 favor of three major US drug distributors in a two 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.920 and a half billion dollar lawsuit, which had accused them 0:08:52.120 --> 0:08:56.040 of causing an opioid crisis in West Virginia County. The 0:08:56.120 --> 0:09:02.319 suit said Mckeeson, Maris, Source Bergen, and Cardinal Health distributed 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:05.760 eighty one million pills over eight years in Cabell County 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:10.000 ravaged by opie weight addiction. President Biden awards the Medal 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:13.360 of Honored for Army soldiers today. They're being honored for 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:17.960 their heroism in Vietnam. They include retired Major John Duffy, 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:21.000 who was wounded twice during an ambush but refused to 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:26.760 evacuate until the enemy could be subdued. Intudos awards are appreciated. 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:33.000 They're recognizing your endeavors, your duty that you've done, and 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:37.000 the the pride you have in your uniform that you've 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:42.600 earned in combat. Along with retired Major Duffy, retired Specialist 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:45.120 to white Birdwell will be honored and will be the 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:48.360 first Native American awarded for service in any conflict since 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:52.520 nineteen Global News twenty four hours a day on air 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.960 and on Bloomberg Quick Tank powered by more than twenty 0:09:56.000 --> 0:09:59.240 seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:03.199 Mike bar In, this is Bloomberg, John Michael, thank you. 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:10.440 It's on Wall Street. Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update. 0:10:10.600 --> 0:10:14.400 Good morning, Scott Seidenberg. Thanks John Tyawana Walker struck out 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.000 nine in at six innings as the Mets beat the 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:21.320 Reds yesterday seven four. Brandon Nimo and Francisco Lindor pulled 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.360 homeward off Red starter Hunter Green, who has now allowed 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.640 a Major League leading twenty two home runs this season. 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:31.120 The Mets are the first n L team to fifty wings. 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:34.520 Brandon Nimo on the team's first half success been a 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:36.840 good first half. I don't think anybody would complain about it, 0:10:37.400 --> 0:10:39.120 but we also know that we have places that we 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.640 can get better and that, you know, opportunities that um, 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.200 we haven't taken advantage of. So to know that there's 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.560 more in the tank, especially with Jake and Max coming 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:50.920 back and Max Scherzer comes off the i L to 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.080 make the start tonight his first since leaving the game 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.520 back on May eight. Team the Yankees were off yesterday 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:01.640 Tonight Jamison Tyone faces his former team the Pirates Tennis 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.760 at Wimbledon. Rafa Nadal and Nick Curios advanced to the 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:09.160 men's quarterfinals and a fourth of July tradition, as Joey 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:13.600 Chestnut wins his fifteenth Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest despite 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:18.360 being interrupted by a protester midway through. Chestnut down sixty 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:21.800 three dogs to win his fifteenth title in the last 0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:27.000 sixteen years. I'm Scott Zeedinberg with Boomberg Sports. John all right, 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:29.800 thanks Scott, and ahead of the market open, we did 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.120 to see some green on the screen initially with US 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.840 futures right now they are lower down futures turning down 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:39.200 one dred ninety points. That's a decline of six tenths 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.640 of per percent. SMP E many futures they're down twenty 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.839 six points, that's down seven tenths per percent. And then 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.720 as eighty many futures one points glory that is down 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:53.720 nine tenths of a percent. The Euro one oh three 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.640 eleven that is down a four percent against the dollar. 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.360 His dollar d x y seems strength, and of dollar 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:03.280 that's up eight tens of a percent. You're listening to 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:12.240 Bloomberg Day day Break brought to you by New York 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:14.920 Community Trust. Your name will live on as a champion 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:17.040 of the causes you care about for years to come. 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.120 To a chantable bequest to the New York Community Trust. 0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:26.600 Markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day 0:12:26.720 --> 0:12:29.720 at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Out, and at 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:39.040 Bloomberg Quick Tape. This is a Bloombern business lash and 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:42.360 I'm Karen Moscow. US dot Index futures and European equities 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.359 are falling. It is concerned over the possibility of a recession. 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:49.160 Outweighs optimism over US China talk saimed at tariff reductions, 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.480 the Euro at a twenty year low. We checked the 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:54.400 markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:57.520 SMP future is down nineteen points down, futures down a 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:01.160 hundred thirty six nasday futures down seventy five the decks 0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.760 in Germany's down nine tenths of upper cent and your 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.840 treasury up one thirty second yield two point eight seven percent, 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.320 a yield on the two year two point eight five percent. 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.120 Nine max screwed oil is up seven tenths percent or 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.520 seventy two cents at a hundred nine dollars. Thirteen cents 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:16.840 of barrel co Max school is up tenth of upper 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:19.400 cent or two dollars at eighteen o three fifty. Announce 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:23.120 the euro one point oh three one three against the 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.719 dollar again one thirty five point seven too at a 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.600 British pound is at one point to zero four nine. 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:32.240 Looking at bitcoin, it's up seven ten percent at nineteen thousand, 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.920 nine hundred dollars. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's 0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:38.959 Muchael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Muchael, 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.680 Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Police. A gunman on the 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:45.840 rooftop opened fire on an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago, 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:49.480 killing at least six people, wounding at least thirty, and 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:53.199 sending hundreds of marchers, parents with strollers and children on 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:57.040 bikes fleeing in terror. Police and Island Park say a 0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:00.079 person of interest, twenty two year old Robert Bobby cree Know, 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.640 is now in custody in connection to the shooting. In Philadelphia, 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.559 two police officers were shout and wounded during Fourth of 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:11.760 July festivities held near the city's Museum of Art. So far, 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.080 new arrests have been made in baseball, the Mets one, 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.920 the Red Sox, Orioles and A's also one. The Nationals 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:22.560 lost along with the Giants. Global News twenty four hours 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.920 a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by 0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:28.880 more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:33.360 a hundred twenty countries. Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John, Michael, 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.920 thank you. It is five nineteen on Well Straight. We 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.360 are live for the Bloomberg Injuranto Broker Studios. This is 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:44.080 Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets reopening this morning after camping at 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:47.480 Lemon declines in the past thirteen weeks. Let's get you 0:14:47.520 --> 0:14:50.000 set up for the trading day head this morning. I'm 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:53.000 happy to say we're joined now by Dennis Gartman, economists 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:56.600 the University of acron and Downmand Chair, former publisher of 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.800 The Garment Letter. Dennis, I hope he had a great 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.840 four ear good Tuesday morning to you. Have we shifted 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:07.960 from inflation fears now to recession fears for investors? I 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.000 don't think there's any question about that. We are. We 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.400 are clearly shifting to recessionary concerns, and well we should. 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:16.440 Inflation seems to be a baiting. Take a look at 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.600 the green markets, they've turned lower. Take a look at 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.360 at crude oil and as it's trading a hundred nine 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.320 dollars a barrel instead of a hunting twenty two dollars 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:26.160 a barrel. Take a look at the lumber it's down 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.360 a rather substantially. Take a look at livestock prices, they're 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:32.320 down over over time, things seem to be changing. And 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:34.360 I pay a lot of attention to what happens in 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:37.160 the grain markets, more than perhaps most other people do 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:40.640 because they are so international in scope. But the news 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.400 had been because of the war in uh in Ukraine, 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.960 everybody wanted to be bullish of of the grain markets, 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.080 and they've clearly topped out and gone to a lower concern. 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.280 So I think recession is a far greater concern at 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:55.360 this point. The Fed has begun the process of quantitative 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:58.800 tightening rather than quantitative easing. The SAID clearly wants to 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.960 raise the overnight SAID funds rate another seventy five five 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:05.800 basis points, But far more important is what's going on 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.440 in their quantitative tightening circumstances where they're gonna have to 0:16:08.520 --> 0:16:12.120 be either selling or rolling off sixty five billion dollars 0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.160 worth of the treasury securities on a monthly basis. That 0:16:15.320 --> 0:16:18.600 was the fuel that that that fueled the bull market 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.400 in stocks, that was the fuel that fueled the bull 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.760 market in the economy, and that is the fuel that's 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:25.280 being taken away. So I think you have to be 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.320 very careful. As the chairman of the University of ackmansendowmant 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:33.040 I pushed the university to to sell about twelve of 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.720 its portfolio of equities out of its endowment at the 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:37.960 end of the last year. And I see no reason 0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:40.600 to change my opinion on that point. As I've always said, 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:43.040 in the bearer market, here, she who loses the least 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.000 will be the winner. And right now, that's the that's 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:48.880 the operative opportunity, that's the operative circumstance. Here, she who 0:16:48.880 --> 0:16:51.520 loses the least will be the winner. Jumping in in 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.960 any rally in the bearer market, is that fool's errant? Yes, 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:57.400 So I think it's a fool's errand I think that 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.720 you have to instead of For for long period of time, 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:04.160 while Tina was the answer, there was no alternative. Tina 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:06.800 has now become she's moved to the sidelines. Now there 0:17:06.840 --> 0:17:09.400 is an alternative. Higher interest rates are are are going 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.120 to stap money out of the stock market. I think, 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:16.040 as I said, the Fed is tightening monetary tightening monetary policy, 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.240 and and so rallies and equities are to be sold 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.359 into weaknesses, not to be bought. That's that may change 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:24.320 in another three, four or five six months or so. 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:26.399 The average duration of a bear market tends to be 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.680 postal a year in duration. We started this on January five. 0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:31.439 We have another five or six months to go on 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.439 the downside. How far much the lower stocks can go 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.320 as anybody's guest, but I think the trend is from 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:38.879 the upper left of the lower right well with slowing growth. 0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.920 I mean, does this alter the federal reserves trajectory at 0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:47.320 all over time? It shall, no question about it. But 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:49.960 they they've told us, they made it a bundantly clear 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:51.600 that they intend to raised the overnight said funds right 0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:53.920 at least seventy five basis points of the July meeting. 0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.760 They made it I think reasonably clear that they intend 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.400 to raise another fifty basis points at the meeting. After that, 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.520 they have to remain consistent and not back down from 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:05.360 what they said in the past. So I think that 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.920 the said funds rate goes another seventy and maybe a 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:12.200 hundred twenty five basis points from here, then maybe later 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.160 in the in the autumn, maybe later in the winter, 0:18:14.640 --> 0:18:16.440 the SAD can change his policies. But right now that 0:18:16.680 --> 0:18:19.320 has made it abundantly clear that it intends to raise 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:21.600 the overnight said funds right, and it really has to 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:26.960 do so, otherwise it loses credibility. Can you deliver probability 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:31.200 of recession? If so, how long, how deep? Well, I've 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.120 always said, since for the last three months, I said 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:36.320 the odds of a recession in two or sixty seventy 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:40.160 as long as if the overnight said sounds rate moved 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.960 to an inversion and if the spot rate of w 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:45.960 T I got above a hundred nine dollars a barrel 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.560 were both. Clearly, we've been about above a hundred nine 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:50.760 dollars a barrel. We have not gone to an aversion yet. 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:53.439 So I'll continue to hold the fact that we've got 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.520 a sixty to seventy percent probability of recession in two 0:18:57.040 --> 0:19:01.640 al raised at the greet because of the classical definition 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.960 that a recession requires two consecutive declines in GDP for 0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:10.680 quarter over quarter, the second quarter GDP will probably be 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:14.920 marginally higher. So given the fact that the first quarter 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:18.880 GDP was negative, second quarter GDP will probably modestly positive. 0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:22.720 So it means that in order to justify the classical definition, 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.400 we have to wait till the second, third or fourth 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:26.720 quarter this year, and I think both those quarters will 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.800 be negative GDP growth. Dennis, always a pleasure. Thanks for 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.520 being with us this morning. Dennis Garment, University of Acronym 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:36.119 downmand Chairman, former publisher of the Garpment Letter. Ahead of 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.920 the cash elten on Wall Street futures right now in 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.520 the red. The down futures down half a percent, one 0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.480 sixty five points lower, SMP evening futures down twenty two. 0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:51.119 That's down six tenths percent. Nancant futures eighty four points slower. 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:54.879 That is down seven tenths of eight percent. Dollar d 0:19:55.240 --> 0:19:58.119 x Y that is of eight tenths of a percent 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:02.200 continued dollar strength. Do y're all one oh three? That's 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:06.800 down one percent. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg Daybreak, brought to 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:08.439 you by the New York community. To trust your name 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:10.280 will live on as a champion of the crosses you 0:20:10.359 --> 0:20:12.960 care about for years to come through a charitable bequest 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.760 to the New York Community Trust. Learn more at Philanthropist 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:27.840 dot n y C criadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.760 Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg vom Freedom to Washington, 0:20:31.840 --> 0:20:35.920 d C, Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:39.480 does San Francisco, Bloomberg NUN sixty to the Country, Sirius 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:42.800 XM Cho one nine and around the globe, the Bloomberg 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:53.040 Business apt and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Yeah, 0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:55.360 it's finally thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. I'm John 0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.760 Tucker and I'm Karen Moscower. Just about four hours away 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:00.560 from the open of you West Tray Daying. Let's get 0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:01.840 you have to day on the news you need to 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:04.680 know at this hour. We begin in Highland Park, Illinois, 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:07.679 where a gunman opened fire on a rooftop at an 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:11.600 Independence Day parade yesterday, killing at least six people and 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:16.040 wounding at least thirty others. Illinois Governor JB. Pritsker addressed 0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.840 the violence in a news conference. A little while ago, 0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:22.600 I spoke with President Biden, who pledged all support. The 0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:26.920 White House can provide the President agrees with me, this 0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:31.960 madness must stop. Illinois Governor JB. Pritsker, a person of 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:35.200 interest in the shooting, was taken into custody late yesterday 0:21:35.359 --> 0:21:37.879 after a lengthy man hunt in the affluent community of 0:21:38.000 --> 0:21:41.040 Highland Park and now turning to Washington, this were the 0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:44.800 Biden administration could roll back some tariffs imposed by former 0:21:44.840 --> 0:21:48.560 President Trump. Senior US and Chinese officials discuss the matter 0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:52.840 last night and what the Lighthouse calls candidate and substantive discussions. 0:21:53.200 --> 0:21:56.040 There are expectations from the White House that removing levies 0:21:56.440 --> 0:22:00.639 could help ease inflation pressures on consumers. John turning the 0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:04.040 economy now, we may get a recession, but opportunity for 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:07.480 investment could still be positive, depending on the magnitude of 0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:10.879 the slowdown. That's according to Goldman Sacks, macro strategist for 0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:14.280 Global Fitioned Income g freat GIL. Either way, she says, 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:17.119 the labor market will feel a pinch. We'd say that 0:22:17.200 --> 0:22:19.280 the sandwich in sastety. We're going to have to monitor 0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:22.200 the data closely. The expectations for this show is for 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:24.879 the unemployment rate to I mean stable, but both the 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.080 pace of job games to motivate and Goldman sax macro 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.280 Strategistic your preate Gil expects growth to level off as 0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:34.440 rate head higher. Meantime, another major bank painting a grim 0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:37.640 picture for the economy and Bloombergs were neither young joins 0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:39.560 us Live with that story. We need the good morning, 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:42.320 Good morning John. With the recent drop in bond yields, 0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:45.280 investors are betting the fit may turn less Hawkis if 0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:48.040 inflation peaks in the second half of the year, but 0:22:48.240 --> 0:22:51.720 Morgan Stanley says if any drop in interest rates happened, 0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:54.480