WEBVTT - The Red Ripple

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Vonnie Quinn. Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>car goes on, but we have the broad parameters of

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<v Speaker 1>what the next Congress will look like. I spoke with

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinions Jonathan Bernstein about the midterms, what they mean

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<v Speaker 1>for legislating during the lame duck session and into the

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<v Speaker 1>next Congress, and also what the results mean for the

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<v Speaker 1>parties and candidates in I have to say, Jonathan, you

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<v Speaker 1>call this and a lot of senses when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the issues that voters were voting on, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know you said that it was not a

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<v Speaker 1>slam dunk. And the only other person I've heard say

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<v Speaker 1>that is Michael Moore recently. All right, so, Jonathan, we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking Wednesday afternoon. Nevada and Arizona have yet to be called,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's all but certain that Georgia has headed for

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<v Speaker 1>a special election December six. However, we do know a lot,

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<v Speaker 1>an awful lot about US democracy right now. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>in less trouble than we thought? Yeah? I think so,

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<v Speaker 1>With a huge numbers of caveats about that, we're not

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<v Speaker 1>out of the woods, and the threats still real and

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<v Speaker 1>things could change rapidly, but there were a number of

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<v Speaker 1>positive signs after a very bad start been the primaries.

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<v Speaker 1>We had some candidates refusing to concede during their Republican primaries.

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<v Speaker 1>We had efforts to harass election workers all summer in fall.

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<v Speaker 1>We had in the early voting in Arizona a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of these clowns show up in military gear, observing drop

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<v Speaker 1>boxes and intimidating voters. But then as election they came,

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of dropped off, and we didn't get stories,

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<v Speaker 1>at least not significantly organized efforts at at voter intimidation,

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<v Speaker 1>which was a real fear. We didn't so far as

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<v Speaker 1>we're speaking. This could change any minute. But Republicans who

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<v Speaker 1>have lost have conceded properly, normally, and while there are

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<v Speaker 1>some crazy conspiracies that are circulating, they have not migrated.

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<v Speaker 1>They have not made the important step of migrating into

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<v Speaker 1>the mouths of politicians and for the most part, too

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<v Speaker 1>high profile Republican aligned media. So the concessions are interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>As you say, it's sort of back to business as normal,

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<v Speaker 1>the old politics that we knew and loved. Did something

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<v Speaker 1>change within the Republican Party. Did these people get the

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<v Speaker 1>message from leadership that they were to do this. I

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<v Speaker 1>have not seen any reporting on this. Threats to democracy

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<v Speaker 1>didn't start with Donald Trump. They have deep rutes in

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<v Speaker 1>the party going back quite some time and having gotten worse,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's one of the reasons we got Trump. But

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<v Speaker 1>Trump himself is an outlier. Trump himself feels completely apparently,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least he does it completely willing to claim

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<v Speaker 1>fraud no matter what. He doesn't need some sort of pretext.

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<v Speaker 1>He proclaimed fraud in every election he was on the ballot.

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<v Speaker 1>Before the election happened, he proclaimed that he was ripped

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<v Speaker 1>off by fraud. After winning the presidency, the one time

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<v Speaker 1>you would think that candidate would want to increase respect

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<v Speaker 1>for elections and confidence in elections, he still said there

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<v Speaker 1>was not the frauduct that he had no evidence for.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that it turns out that when the

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<v Speaker 1>leader of their party is saying it very loudly, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of Republicans go along, either because they think the

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<v Speaker 1>incentives are there that they're better off agreeing with the

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<v Speaker 1>leader of their party, or possibly just because they actually

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<v Speaker 1>believe it. I think a lot of rank and file

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<v Speaker 1>voters and some of the candidates come out of the

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<v Speaker 1>rank and file voter group. You know, they hear a

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<v Speaker 1>Republican president say something, they say, you're, well, he may

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<v Speaker 1>be exaggerating, but there's got to be something to it,

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<v Speaker 1>or else he wouldn't say it. It turns out Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is willing to say a lot of things just

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<v Speaker 1>because he says them, and that is unusual, obviously very dangerous.

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<v Speaker 1>So that I think helped. I think we got a

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<v Speaker 1>little lucky so far, at least that most of the

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<v Speaker 1>losers lost by a substantial amount. Again, if that was

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<v Speaker 1>trumpet wouldn't stop them from claiming fraud. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>normal people, if they lose an election by eight, ten,

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen percentage points, they see what's going on. Also, more

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<v Speaker 1>people registered and so on. And it was a different election,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, a very very different election, one of the kind.

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<v Speaker 1>Speaking of Trump, dr Ols did terribly. It took more

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<v Speaker 1>money than expected to win. In Ohio, governors that had

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<v Speaker 1>not had Trump's backing, like Kemp and Wine, they won

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<v Speaker 1>fine without Trump. Carry Lake is in trouble in Arizona

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<v Speaker 1>in the governor's race. What position does this all leave

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<v Speaker 1>Trump in. You know, it's very hard to tell because

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<v Speaker 1>there have been other moments where it was clear that

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<v Speaker 1>Trump was a drag on the party and that his

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<v Speaker 1>judgment is terrible. You know, he endorsed these candidates who

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<v Speaker 1>were terrible candidates, and he's not good at this kind

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<v Speaker 1>of stuff. It doesn't bother him. Apparently he was blaming

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<v Speaker 1>his wife for his endorsement of Dr oz Ut episode.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Donald Trump is, of course the only president

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<v Speaker 1>we've ever had who repeatedly criticized extreme criticisms of his

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<v Speaker 1>own cabinet nominees. People he put his own cabinet turned

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<v Speaker 1>out to be horrible, horrible people, and he never took

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<v Speaker 1>any responsibility for that. So we've had these points before,

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<v Speaker 1>and Republican politicians and other party actors and the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>aligned media have not made the decision to cut him off.

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<v Speaker 1>And perhaps because they really don't believe that he's arming them,

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<v Speaker 1>or perhaps because of other reasons. I think the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>align media has ratings incentives. He sells a lot of books,

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<v Speaker 1>he sells a lot of ads, and increases ratings. So

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<v Speaker 1>there's that, And I think a lot of candidates are

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<v Speaker 1>just afraid that he will go after them, even though

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<v Speaker 1>the evidence isn't really there that he's that much of

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<v Speaker 1>a threat, but politicians tend to be paranoid about that

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<v Speaker 1>sort of thing. But we'll come back to Trump in

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<v Speaker 1>a moment. But what kind of lessons should Republicans learn

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<v Speaker 1>from this election, given that they really didn't do as

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<v Speaker 1>well as expected, particularly in places like in the Midwest,

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<v Speaker 1>and it may mean that a sweep in is off

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<v Speaker 1>the table, for example, mail in voting, should they embrace it.

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that Republicans, by demonizing mail and voting,

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<v Speaker 1>are making it more difficult for their own voters. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know that there have been any careful studies that

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<v Speaker 1>actually show that it makes a difference, so that's something

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<v Speaker 1>I know. I don't think this tells us anything about

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<v Speaker 1>two years is a huge long time, and there's basically

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<v Speaker 1>no correlation between what happens in midterms and what happens

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<v Speaker 1>in the next presidential election. But I think the main

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<v Speaker 1>thing Republicans I hope take away from this is that

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<v Speaker 1>opposing democracy is dangerous, that running on a platform without

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<v Speaker 1>having any policies to address the problems that they point

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<v Speaker 1>out is not necessarily a plus with voters, and that

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<v Speaker 1>having a bunch of flakes and otherwise, you know, unqualified

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<v Speaker 1>candidates can be harmful. Whether that's the lesson they empirically

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<v Speaker 1>should take from what happened, I don't know. It takes

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<v Speaker 1>a long time to study exactly why elections came out

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<v Speaker 1>as they did, and even if we have all the

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<v Speaker 1>votes counted, you still have to do a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>work to actually find the cause of relationships. But what

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<v Speaker 1>parties take away from things has very little to do

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes with reality, and more to do with internal interests

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<v Speaker 1>within the party, internal factions within the party, and how

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<v Speaker 1>they fight to have their interpretations of what happened become

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<v Speaker 1>the leading explanation. So, for example, we've already seen anti

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<v Speaker 1>abortion Republicans organized groups of anti abortion Republicans say that

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<v Speaker 1>the reason that Republicans lost is because they did from

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<v Speaker 1>the issue of abortion. Now I don't think that's true.

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<v Speaker 1>Um yeah, I think in fact, abortion cost them badly

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<v Speaker 1>and the candidates shied away from it because they knew

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<v Speaker 1>that it was costing them. But you know, they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to try to float that and they may be successful.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a powerful issue within the party among party voters

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<v Speaker 1>in primaries. So it's certainly true in the media aftermath

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<v Speaker 1>that one of the things they're fixating on is candidate quality.

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<v Speaker 1>Now the question becomes, can you be a party of

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<v Speaker 1>anti democratic conspiracy thinking and recruit decent candidates? So they

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<v Speaker 1>didn't just by coincidence, have a bunch of lousy candidates.

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<v Speaker 1>They have a bunch of lot of the candidates in

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<v Speaker 1>part because their voters wanted to hear crazy conspiracy thinking,

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<v Speaker 1>and in part because solid regular politicians weren't willing to

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<v Speaker 1>run in Republican primaries because they didn't want to be

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<v Speaker 1>beat up for saying things like, oh, yes, Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>won the election. Yeah. So you know, the thing is,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's easy to say, oh, we had a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of bad candidates, but the bad candidates weren't just a

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<v Speaker 1>coincidence that happened to happen or that was It's not

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<v Speaker 1>just about Donald Trump's bad judgment in endorsements. It's also

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<v Speaker 1>about what the party is right now, and they have

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<v Speaker 1>some deep problems, and the last of the first hours

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<v Speaker 1>after the election, it could be worse in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>what their reaction is, but we still have to see

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<v Speaker 1>what it's going to be like. More Next on Bloomberg Opinion,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Vonnie Quinn. Speaking of problems, Kevin McCarthy isn't a

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<v Speaker 1>slamed on Chrispeaker. I mean, he likely get it, but

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<v Speaker 1>he may have to do some negotiation. What kind a

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<v Speaker 1>negotiation do you imagine we'll go on within the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>Party in order to have them Well, we don't. Even

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<v Speaker 1>though as I speak that the Republicans definitely have a majority.

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<v Speaker 1>I believe they will have the majority. I believe that

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<v Speaker 1>the whole time. Um, you just don't avoid a seat

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<v Speaker 1>loss when you're when you have the president, when president's party. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>so assume that he gets a majority, but it's a

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<v Speaker 1>slim majority. There's two steps, right, he first and this

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<v Speaker 1>will come up next week. This will come up on

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<v Speaker 1>Monday and Tuesday. Uh, this coming week, Um, Republicans going

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<v Speaker 1>to vote on who there speaker candidate should be. So

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<v Speaker 1>in order to do that, he has to win a

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<v Speaker 1>majority of the House Republicans. But then he has to

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<v Speaker 1>win on opening day of the new Congress January three.

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<v Speaker 1>He's going to have to win a majority of the House.

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<v Speaker 1>And if he has, say if Republicans have a four

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<v Speaker 1>or five or six seat March and he has to

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<v Speaker 1>hold all of the Republicans. In the old days, that

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<v Speaker 1>was easy. It was an automatic vote. Everybody knew that

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<v Speaker 1>you voted for your party's candidate for speaker in recent

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<v Speaker 1>years and among the among the House Freedom Caucus types,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, um, you those are not automatic votes.

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<v Speaker 1>And the problem is that we also have with Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>with I'm sorry, with Republicans picking up several seats in

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<v Speaker 1>New York for example. Um, we have some Republicans who

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<v Speaker 1>maybe not eager to have a more extreme speaker, and

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<v Speaker 1>so there's always a possibility will have chaos. Um. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>The thing is that we've already had some of the

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<v Speaker 1>extremists in the House Republican Conference come out and say,

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<v Speaker 1>I hope we have a narrow margin, then I'll have

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<v Speaker 1>more leverage. Well, the truth is that in real life,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't have much leverage if you're on the extreme

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<v Speaker 1>of your party. But they've been able to get away

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<v Speaker 1>with that partially because the rest of the party lets them.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know whether they'll be able to get away

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<v Speaker 1>with that in the next converse, and they may, and

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<v Speaker 1>if if they do, if we have a slim Republican

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<v Speaker 1>majority that's bossed by the thirty or forty or fifty

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<v Speaker 1>or sixty most extreme members, it's going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>messinitely have to give up certain things, but I guess

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<v Speaker 1>we may never know what they may be. Yeah, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's not really clear what he can promise or what, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what the what the demands are going to be,

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<v Speaker 1>because a lot of these people are not you know,

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<v Speaker 1>calculating um policy interested politicians. These are people whose main

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<v Speaker 1>goal is to have grievances and and uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and go on Fox News or you know, the radio

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<v Speaker 1>talk shows or the more extreme networks and complain about things,

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<v Speaker 1>including the leadership of the Republican Party. So I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure what he can give some of these extremist members

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<v Speaker 1>because they're not interesting. You can't say, oh, yes, I'll

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<v Speaker 1>give you a vote on this bill that you care about,

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<v Speaker 1>because that's not what their thing is. That's not what

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<v Speaker 1>they're interested in. And that's why the Republican Party is

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<v Speaker 1>not very equipped to run the House. Well, speaking of

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<v Speaker 1>members and senators that have had power over the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years, does Joe imagine have as much power

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<v Speaker 1>as he had going forward? Um, you know, assuming that

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<v Speaker 1>Democrats have a majority in the Senate, whether it's fifty

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<v Speaker 1>or fifty one seats or two as possible right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, Um, I have to get the math in

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<v Speaker 1>my head. Um, the thing is, if there's a Republican

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<v Speaker 1>majority in the House, then know, anything that passes and

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<v Speaker 1>becomes law is going to need a supermajority to get

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<v Speaker 1>there because you're gonna have to have both Republicans and Democrats,

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<v Speaker 1>because it's gonna have if anything that becomes law has

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<v Speaker 1>to get through the republic, if have to get through

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<v Speaker 1>a Republican House, it's going to have to get Republican

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<v Speaker 1>votes in the Senate. It's also gonna have to get

0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:08.880
<v Speaker 1>Democratic votes in the Senate. So you know, the same

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<v Speaker 1>way that the filibuster kept him from being the swing

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 1>vote on a lot of things, um of divided government

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<v Speaker 1>will keep him from being the swing vote on a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things. That's well, his energy permitting building is

0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:26.080
<v Speaker 1>in trouble. Well, that said some of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>if he is an aggressive legislator, it's very possible that

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<v Speaker 1>he could put together coalitions that are bipartisan coalitions on

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<v Speaker 1>some things. We just don't know what has any chance

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<v Speaker 1>to get through the House or representatives, is the thing.

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<v Speaker 1>What's how fascinating the climate change was up there in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of voter priorities. You know. I my general feeling

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<v Speaker 1>all this stuff is to wait and look more carefully

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<v Speaker 1>as more studies go out. You know, it's it's easy

0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 1>for voters to say stuff, whether that means that and

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<v Speaker 1>and it's it's interesting what's you know, what the tell

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<v Speaker 1>posters is on the top of their minds. Whether that

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<v Speaker 1>actually moved their votes or not is a much more

0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 1>complicated question and sometimes difficult to study. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that generally the polling over the years has

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<v Speaker 1>shown that dealing with climate has been a popular position

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.880
<v Speaker 1>for the last at least decade. And I think one

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that we get out of one of

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<v Speaker 1>the ways to think about the election is that Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>were very, very certain that their issues were wildly popular

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<v Speaker 1>with voters, but it may be that they were wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>Number opinions Jonathan Bernstein and do please weigh in. You

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 1>can email me at v Quinn at Bloomberg dot nets.

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 1>We'd love to hear from you. Nomberg Opinion airs every

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:46.600
<v Speaker 1>weekend on Numberg Radio and every Friday as a podcast

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>on Apple, Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, or produced

0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>by Eric mollow Till next Time on Bloomberg opinion,