1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:14,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

3
00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:17,600
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business

4
00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,880
Speaker 1: at Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or

5
00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:24,239
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,240
Speaker 2: We have a lot to talk about. Yes, I am

7
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,560
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew back with you and I did miss you.

8
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:31,880
Speaker 2: Thanks for being with us here on the radio, on

9
00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,159
Speaker 2: the satellite, and on YouTube. Where you can find us

10
00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 2: right now, go to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You'll

11
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,159
Speaker 2: find our live stream and we invite you into the

12
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,479
Speaker 2: studio here as we try to get a sense of

13
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:45,440
Speaker 2: next steps in Israel, whether a ceasefire is actually at hand,

14
00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,280
Speaker 2: whether a ground invasion of Rafa, a true invasion is

15
00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,880
Speaker 2: actually at hand as well, with President Biden making news

16
00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:57,360
Speaker 2: remembering the red line that he invoked echoes of Barack

17
00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 2: Obama in Syria, said the invade of Rafa would be it.

18
00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,920
Speaker 2: And now that we're seeing the initial stages of such

19
00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,360
Speaker 2: an invasion, or what appear to be at least the

20
00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,440
Speaker 2: President making news on CNN after the withdrawal. We knew

21
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:16,160
Speaker 2: this already. The withholding I should say, of a shipment

22
00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:21,760
Speaker 2: that included nearly two thousand, two thousand pounds bombs. The

23
00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 2: President's saying that he will continue to withhold shipments of

24
00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,000
Speaker 2: offensive weaponry. Listen to how he put it on CNN.

25
00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,040
Speaker 3: If they go into Rafa, I'm not applying the weapons

26
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,840
Speaker 3: that have been used historically to deal with RAFA, to

27
00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 3: deal with the cities, to deal with that problem. We're

28
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,800
Speaker 3: going to continue to make sure because you're less secure

29
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,920
Speaker 3: in terms of iron dome and their ability to respond

30
00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,800
Speaker 3: to attacks. But I've made it clear to BB in

31
00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,360
Speaker 3: the Work Cabinet they're not going to get our support

32
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,040
Speaker 3: if in fact they're going these population.

33
00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 2: Centers, population centers like Rafa. As we bring Jordan Fabian

34
00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,480
Speaker 2: into the conversation now, Bloomberg White House correspondent with whom

35
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,240
Speaker 2: we have spoken quite a bit about the tensions involved

36
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,600
Speaker 2: here and the domestic pressure that the president is facing

37
00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 2: from his left, Jordan, it's good to see you. These shipments,

38
00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 2: to be clear, before we talk about the politics involved,

39
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,880
Speaker 2: are separate from the supplemental request that was just passed

40
00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:18,320
Speaker 2: in the House.

41
00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is all very complicated, but we're actually talking

42
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:25,760
Speaker 4: about one shipment of heavy bombs that's been put on pause,

43
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,440
Speaker 4: it hasn't been canceled. Now they're looking at some other

44
00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,600
Speaker 4: weapons system that's been under review for a long time

45
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:37,320
Speaker 4: that would essentially allow Israel to make some of their

46
00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,000
Speaker 4: dumb bombs into smart bombs, like some guided guided munitions.

47
00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:43,320
Speaker 4: But none of this has to do with the supplemental

48
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,359
Speaker 4: and administration officials have made it clear, and we heard

49
00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,760
Speaker 4: President Biden say it, They're going to continue to supply

50
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,440
Speaker 4: Iron Dome. You're going to continue to supply you know, tanks,

51
00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,960
Speaker 4: arm ammunitionent like some very important other things.

52
00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:56,720
Speaker 1: And so.

53
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,920
Speaker 4: View this more as a warning shot rather than the

54
00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:01,720
Speaker 4: final decision.

55
00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,440
Speaker 2: Sure, now, this is part of an existing agreement right

56
00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 2: in which we are sending military aid to Israel. You

57
00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:10,560
Speaker 2: mentioned that there could be another and that's kind of

58
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,000
Speaker 2: where the President was making news here. It's not only

59
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 2: these five hundred and two thousand pound bombs, but to

60
00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:19,520
Speaker 2: your point, the direct attack munitions that would smarten up

61
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:23,200
Speaker 2: dumb bombs. Are we on a kind of retainer essentially

62
00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:27,520
Speaker 2: with Israel, where we're providing weapons on the regular, and

63
00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 2: this just happens to bump into a political problem absolutely.

64
00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,679
Speaker 4: I mean, the US has long been the biggest defense

65
00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,200
Speaker 4: supplier for israel I. Mean, this has been the case

66
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:41,760
Speaker 4: for decades, and so that's why this pause got so

67
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:47,760
Speaker 4: much attention, that this relationship could possibly be disrupted because

68
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:52,040
Speaker 4: of this tension between President Biden and Prime Minister net

69
00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,920
Speaker 4: and Yahoo and their differences over war plans for RAFA.

70
00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,640
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, it's important that we clear that up,

71
00:03:57,640 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 2: and I appreciate that because the reaction that we're here

72
00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:03,280
Speaker 2: from the Speaker of the House and from some of

73
00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,000
Speaker 2: his rank and file would make you think that the

74
00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 2: President was rescinding the supplemental budget that we're spending plan

75
00:04:10,640 --> 00:04:12,920
Speaker 2: that is now law. It will not interrupt the flow

76
00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 2: of defensive weaponry. But Joe Biden's got some pretty difficult

77
00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:17,320
Speaker 2: decisions to make here.

78
00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:18,480
Speaker 5: So does Benjamin net Yaho.

79
00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,839
Speaker 2: Are we looking at a breakdown in our relationship potentially

80
00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 2: over RAFA.

81
00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,160
Speaker 4: It certainly moved closer to that, at least for the

82
00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,919
Speaker 4: Biden Net and Yahoo relationships. It's been strained for a

83
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,280
Speaker 4: long time over this war. And you know, going back

84
00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:34,080
Speaker 4: to the Obama administration when net Nyahoo is such an

85
00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:36,560
Speaker 4: outspoken critic of the ira nuclear deal, and so this

86
00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,080
Speaker 4: has been years in the making. And now we're at

87
00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,760
Speaker 4: this breaking point, and so you have this is the

88
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,280
Speaker 4: part of the reason why Biden is pushing so hard

89
00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,520
Speaker 4: for a ceasefire deal. He doesn't want it to get

90
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 4: to that point. He's been studiously trying to avoid a breakdown.

91
00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,200
Speaker 4: He doesn't want that to happen. It would be it

92
00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,360
Speaker 4: would cost him a lot domestically, it would dramatically alter

93
00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:00,320
Speaker 4: US foreign policy, and so he's been trying to talk

94
00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:02,800
Speaker 4: them off the ledge here. And the question is whether

95
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,840
Speaker 4: they can get to some sort of deal that averts

96
00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:06,719
Speaker 4: a full scale invasion of Rafa.

97
00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about that before we get into the

98
00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:10,680
Speaker 2: military side of this.

99
00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:11,599
Speaker 1: With Kelly Griico.

100
00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 2: It's not lost on us that William Burns, the CIA director,

101
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:17,480
Speaker 2: has made his way to Israel. We know that there

102
00:05:17,520 --> 00:05:21,159
Speaker 2: are parties to negotiate in Cairo. Where does this stand

103
00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,320
Speaker 2: right now, because we were told that this had fallen apart.

104
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:26,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's all a bit of a mystery. There's still

105
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 4: talks ongoing. John Kirby, the White House spokesperson, actually just

106
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,560
Speaker 4: said that CIA director Burns, who's been deeply involved in

107
00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,040
Speaker 4: those talks, is actually leaving Cairo. He said that was

108
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,360
Speaker 4: a previously scheduled departure and that this is not a

109
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,480
Speaker 4: sign that the talks are breaking down. But obviously without

110
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,599
Speaker 4: the presence of a senior US official there, it doesn't

111
00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,960
Speaker 4: necessarily suggest there's an imminent deal on the table here.

112
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 4: So we're still in a bit of a holding pattern.

113
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,320
Speaker 4: There's been a lot of fog of war surrounding these talks,

114
00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,919
Speaker 4: and we're all trying to decipher what direction this is

115
00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:57,479
Speaker 4: going to go in.

116
00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's about It was two weeks ago we were

117
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,080
Speaker 2: told be any hour, and the time is tiken here.

118
00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,600
Speaker 2: Thanks for the insights helping us delainy between these two

119
00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,920
Speaker 2: different spending plans. Jordan Fabian, Great to see you, Bloomberg

120
00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,840
Speaker 2: White House correspondent, as we try to keep you honest

121
00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:15,719
Speaker 2: here on where the money is coming from and where

122
00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,920
Speaker 2: it's going, and more specifically about what Israel needs right

123
00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,160
Speaker 2: now with the US have withheld even if it was

124
00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,480
Speaker 2: on the promise of later delivery these two thousand pound

125
00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:29,479
Speaker 2: bombs if we believe that Israel needed them. Our first

126
00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,320
Speaker 2: question for Kelly Griico, Stimpson Center senior fellow with the

127
00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:36,599
Speaker 2: Reimagining US Grant Strategy program. Kelly's been very helpful with

128
00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,839
Speaker 2: helping us understand the strategy and the hardware on the

129
00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:40,960
Speaker 2: ground here, and it's good to.

130
00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:42,440
Speaker 5: Have you back on Bloomberg.

131
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:45,680
Speaker 2: Kelly, can you answer that question, if we believed Israel

132
00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:50,800
Speaker 2: needed this weaponry right now for its own security, would

133
00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:51,760
Speaker 2: we not have delivered it?

134
00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:54,240
Speaker 5: You know?

135
00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,560
Speaker 6: I think that's that's a good question. I think the

136
00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:58,960
Speaker 6: evidence suggests that if we thought it was needed for

137
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 6: the security, we would have delivered it, given that, we

138
00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:06,080
Speaker 6: are continuing to provide them other defensive systems, including things

139
00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:10,720
Speaker 6: for air defense. But these are really more about whether

140
00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:16,200
Speaker 6: Israel's going to conduct a major offensive operation into Rafa,

141
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,000
Speaker 6: and we have real concerns about that.

142
00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,000
Speaker 2: Well, give us a sense of what these weapons would

143
00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,160
Speaker 2: be used for. And we're talking about two different shipments.

144
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,880
Speaker 2: To be fair, Kelly, there were eighteen hundred two thousand

145
00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:31,480
Speaker 2: pound bombs and seventeen hundred five hundred pound bombs that

146
00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,760
Speaker 2: the president decided to withhold. I realized there's another potential

147
00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:38,280
Speaker 2: ship in here involving joint direct attack munitions. We can

148
00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:42,280
Speaker 2: talk about those, but what are these heavy bombs actually

149
00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:46,080
Speaker 2: do beyond flattening buildings and neighborhoods.

150
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: What would they be needed for?

151
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,080
Speaker 6: Yes, so, This is a very large bomb. It's one

152
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,360
Speaker 6: of the largest in the US arsenal and in particular,

153
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 6: this kind of munition is something that could be used,

154
00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 6: for example, to try to destroy tunnels. We know Hamas

155
00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:05,880
Speaker 6: of course has a lot of tunnels throughout the Gaza strip,

156
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,280
Speaker 6: and so this is really the condimmunition you would use

157
00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 6: to try to collapse those tunnels by launching a bomb

158
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,440
Speaker 6: if you know the location, and trying to destroy it,

159
00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,760
Speaker 6: because it creates a very large crater about sixteen feet

160
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,600
Speaker 6: by fifty feet on average.

161
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:20,200
Speaker 5: Wow.

162
00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:26,400
Speaker 2: Wow, it's interesting because the IDF is known for precision.

163
00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 2: Kelly and I wonder to what extent precision is possible.

164
00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,000
Speaker 2: You certainly get a different answer when you talk to

165
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 2: Israeli officials about this, whether it's possible to be precise

166
00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:43,679
Speaker 2: as Hamas gathers itself intertwines itself with civilian populations.

167
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:46,600
Speaker 6: Yes, I mean, I think this is a really a

168
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,080
Speaker 6: fair question to ask, you know, I think one of

169
00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 6: the realities is that in Gaza it's very densely packed

170
00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,040
Speaker 6: with people, and so in that kind of environment, and

171
00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 6: particularly Rafa, where a lot of you know, one point

172
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,600
Speaker 6: five million people are now concentrated, it no matter how

173
00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,880
Speaker 6: precise you try to be, you're going to probably have

174
00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,920
Speaker 6: significant collateral damage. Collateral damage. But I think one of

175
00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:14,000
Speaker 6: the things that the administration has highlighted is that, particularly

176
00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,600
Speaker 6: with these kinds of bombs, that they would like to

177
00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:20,400
Speaker 6: see that the IDEAF moves towards using something that is

178
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,800
Speaker 6: more precise, that maybe doesn't have the same kind of

179
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,119
Speaker 6: blast radius as these kind of larger weapons.

180
00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:29,439
Speaker 2: As we spend time with Kelly Grico, I have to

181
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:33,079
Speaker 2: ask Kelly about the Arms Export Control Act because at

182
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:36,120
Speaker 2: the beginning of this whole process, when there were first

183
00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 2: questions about conditions being tied to weapons, and this may

184
00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,960
Speaker 2: have come up with Ukraine as well, we were told

185
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,559
Speaker 2: by lawmakers that there are already conditions in any agreement

186
00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:51,000
Speaker 2: under which the US is sending weapons to a foreign ally.

187
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:56,840
Speaker 2: Is this pause legal, knowing the way the Arms Export

188
00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,680
Speaker 2: Control Act works, and aren't those conditions all in place?

189
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,600
Speaker 7: Yes, I mean, I think, I think my sense is

190
00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 7: that this is legal.

191
00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,920
Speaker 6: This is not unprecedented either, particularly within the US Israel relationship.

192
00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:14,440
Speaker 6: Ronald Reagan in nineteen eighty two actually imposed a six

193
00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:18,839
Speaker 6: year ban on cluster munitions being provided to Israel after

194
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:22,199
Speaker 6: there was evidence suggesting that they had used cluster munitions

195
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,719
Speaker 6: in their invasion of Lebanon in areas where there were civilians.

196
00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,120
Speaker 6: So there is precedent for this. I mean, part of

197
00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,720
Speaker 6: the reason that we, you know, provide weapons to allies

198
00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,320
Speaker 6: and partners is because we have shared interest, but it's

199
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,719
Speaker 6: also because it provides some leverage, and so this is

200
00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,600
Speaker 6: really a choice by the administration to use that leverage

201
00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:41,320
Speaker 6: at this moment.

202
00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,840
Speaker 2: Interesting, do you think that leverage results in any different

203
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 2: course of action by the IDF? We understand operations have

204
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,440
Speaker 2: been limited to areas near Ratha's border with Egypt. What

205
00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:54,680
Speaker 2: do you think we're about to see?

206
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:57,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is challenging.

207
00:10:57,320 --> 00:10:59,640
Speaker 6: You know, right now we have a three way game

208
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,880
Speaker 6: of chick and going on with Israel sort of using

209
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,360
Speaker 6: this the threat of the raw operation to try to

210
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,360
Speaker 6: get Hamas to agree to this the you know, temporary

211
00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,800
Speaker 6: ceasepire that it would like, not a permanent one that

212
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,000
Speaker 6: Hamas wants, And we are now playing a game of

213
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,439
Speaker 6: chicken with the Israelis about not conducting a massive operation

214
00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,800
Speaker 6: in Gaza. We do know that Israel, according to anonymous

215
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 6: administration officials, had sufficient munitions to conduct that operation. So

216
00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:30,439
Speaker 6: the real cost would be long term if this would

217
00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,920
Speaker 6: cause a major breach in the relationship, and that you know,

218
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,600
Speaker 6: we won't know until I think the cabin Israelly cabinet

219
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:38,720
Speaker 6: really makes that decision.

220
00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 2: It's really fascinating as you refer to Ronald Reagan Kelly,

221
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 2: and I wonder if Joe Biden might invoke that name

222
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 2: in his own rationale. Here the next shipment, by the way,

223
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,800
Speaker 2: that which is being reviewed by the administration, we're told

224
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:57,440
Speaker 2: six five hundred joint direct attack Musicians munitions would convert

225
00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,960
Speaker 2: free fall dumb bombs into decision guided weapons. It would

226
00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:05,520
Speaker 2: make the dumb bomb smart. Doesn't that actually save potentially

227
00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,440
Speaker 2: civilian lives?

228
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:13,079
Speaker 6: Well, in this situation it does. It's less helpful than

229
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,880
Speaker 6: it might be in other contacts because even though yeah,

230
00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:19,679
Speaker 6: it helps them to target in on with these with

231
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,920
Speaker 6: this this kit helps the dumb bomb basically to target

232
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:25,800
Speaker 6: go towards a target, a very specific target, and to

233
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:30,200
Speaker 6: navigate there. But because you're in this very concentrated, dense

234
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,080
Speaker 6: civilian population, it doesn't really make that much of a

235
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:35,560
Speaker 6: difference in this urban environment.

236
00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:37,160
Speaker 5: Got it.

237
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:42,520
Speaker 2: Kelly Grico specializes in asymmetric warfare and the type of

238
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,720
Speaker 2: weaponry that we're talking about going into Israel. Can you

239
00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:49,240
Speaker 2: give me a sense more specifically, Kelly, about the way

240
00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 2: Israel is going to manage Rafa here. It looks like

241
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 2: they're trying to start at least around the edges, as

242
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,600
Speaker 2: we just discussed, along the border with Egypt. But if

243
00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 2: they want to actually extricate Hamas, how long could this take?

244
00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 6: You know, I think the answer to that is that

245
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,680
Speaker 6: the goal is still really to defeat Hamas, destroy Hamas.

246
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 6: I mean, we're talking years, you know, all of the

247
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,800
Speaker 6: evidence is so far that they have not been very

248
00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,640
Speaker 6: successful with that. It's as we've learned over twenty years,

249
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,840
Speaker 6: it's very hard to destroy a terrorist organization. So the

250
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,679
Speaker 6: reality is that I think Israel really needs to think

251
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 6: about what their goal is moving forward and thinking about

252
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 6: how to best achieve that, maybe scaling back the objective

253
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:41,200
Speaker 6: from destroying a terrorist organization, because that's just so exceedingly difficult.

254
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, last time you were with us, Kelly, we were

255
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:48,760
Speaker 2: asking you about the temporary peer that the US military

256
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,880
Speaker 2: has been building to bring aid into Gaza and to

257
00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:54,520
Speaker 2: the extent that it may become a target. How are

258
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 2: you feeling about it now?

259
00:13:57,160 --> 00:14:00,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, I remain concerned about it in terms

260
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 6: of you know, being targeted. You know the Peer has

261
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,120
Speaker 6: been completed, but because of weather conditions they haven't been

262
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 6: able to move in into place. And certainly you know

263
00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:11,960
Speaker 6: there's a great need for the Peer and to help

264
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:17,959
Speaker 6: with humanitarian relief. But again it remains you know, a target,

265
00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,360
Speaker 6: certainly the Peer itself and you know us personnel that

266
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:22,480
Speaker 6: are operating nearby.

267
00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 2: Kelly, it's great to have you back as always, Kelly

268
00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 2: Grico with us from the Stemson Center and a fascinating

269
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:34,160
Speaker 2: look inside the rationale here by the administration. What could

270
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 2: be a turning point to Kelly's point in our relationship

271
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,200
Speaker 2: if continued shipments are withheld, We're going to have to

272
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 2: feel this out together and we'll have a lot more

273
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,760
Speaker 2: reporting for you.

274
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,120
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

275
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,760
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple.

276
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 5: Car Play and then Roudoto with the Bloomberg Business Ad.

277
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,280
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

278
00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg.

279
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:05,200
Speaker 9: We want to get a little bit more perspective on

280
00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 9: these developments now, and joining us is Carmeil arbit of

281
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 9: the Atlantic Council, where she is a Senior Fellow for

282
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 9: Middle East Programs and on resident Senior Fellow that is Karmil.

283
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 9: Always great to have you here. On balance of power,

284
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,080
Speaker 9: there are so many different things we could ask you

285
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,360
Speaker 9: in terms of the implications of this decision from the

286
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:25,680
Speaker 9: Biden administration. Surely there are political consequences domestically, geopolitical consequences

287
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 9: potentially as well. What does this actually change in terms

288
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 9: of not just the US Israel relationship but also the

289
00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,600
Speaker 9: way Israel is likely to conduct itself.

290
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:42,160
Speaker 8: Now, this is the highest friction point between Israel and

291
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,760
Speaker 8: the Biden administration that we have seen throughout the course

292
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 8: of the war, but really in the entirety of the

293
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:52,600
Speaker 8: Biden administration, I think that the impact that it will

294
00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 8: have is still unclear, both in terms of whether or

295
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,440
Speaker 8: not this will be a temporary bold on weapons or

296
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,720
Speaker 8: whether or not the administration is going to turn around

297
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,200
Speaker 8: and release them. But ultimately, what we're seeing is that

298
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 8: the domestic population and domestic voices in both countries, both

299
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,560
Speaker 8: the strong far right in Israel and the left in

300
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:17,840
Speaker 8: the US, are pulling these leaders apart, and that friction

301
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 8: is really coming to the fore Carmeil.

302
00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 2: I know you're not a weapons expert necessarily, but to

303
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 2: the extent that we're looking at this messaging from the

304
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 2: administration withholding, for instance, these two thousand pound bombs, what

305
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 2: would they have been needed for? I guess another way

306
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: of asking that is, would Joe Biden have withheld the

307
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,320
Speaker 2: shipment if they were in fact considered critical weaponry necessary

308
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:43,200
Speaker 2: for Israel to secure itself.

309
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,200
Speaker 8: What the US has done in its rhetoric is it

310
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:51,320
Speaker 8: has differentiated defensive munitions from offensive ones, where it's saying

311
00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 8: that it will continue to support Israel and Iron Dome

312
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 8: and other things that it uses to defend itself from Hamask.

313
00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:01,800
Speaker 8: But in many cases, Israel is using this type of

314
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:07,000
Speaker 8: bombs and weaponry to go after Halas's terrorist infrastructure. So

315
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 8: they may be offensively going after that type of military equipment,

316
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 8: and so from an Israeli perspective, there's no differentiation from

317
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 8: a US perspective, there's a very clear differentiation in terms

318
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,439
Speaker 8: of how these are used. And of course, something like

319
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 8: a two thousand pound bomb has huge reverberating effects. It

320
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,399
Speaker 8: would be much less targeted in terms of what it

321
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:35,280
Speaker 8: takes out once dropped into a civilian center like Gaza

322
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,719
Speaker 8: or in this case Rafa, where there are more than

323
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,960
Speaker 8: a million people of home, only about eighty thousand have evacuated.

324
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,719
Speaker 9: Well, it's important, Carmeille, that you kind of make this

325
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 9: distinction between defense and offense, because we have seen this

326
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 9: before in this conflict, especially when Iran did that unprecedented

327
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 9: strike attempting to get into Israeli territory with a barrage

328
00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,439
Speaker 9: of drones and missiles. The US did step up for

329
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,800
Speaker 9: Israel's defense, helping shoot those down, but made it very

330
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 9: clear that if Israel were to retaliate in an offensive way,

331
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,520
Speaker 9: the US wanted nothing to do with an offensive operation.

332
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 9: Just on the subject though, of Iran, what does this

333
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,440
Speaker 9: decision from the Biden administration likely mean for Iran or

334
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 9: its proxies like Kamas. Does this embolden them in some way?

335
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:21,840
Speaker 5: Yeah.

336
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 8: Israel and its supporters have been very quick to point

337
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 8: out that not only is this emboldening Hamas in the

338
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:32,480
Speaker 8: context of negotiations where Israel has tried to use Rafach

339
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:36,160
Speaker 8: as a leveraging tool to push Haamas closer to israel

340
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 8: Ces fire position, but it also sends a message to

341
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 8: Hezbola and to Iran that there is a wedge between

342
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 8: the United States and Israel, and of course US support

343
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,400
Speaker 8: for Israel has been critical in Israel's ability to respond

344
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,120
Speaker 8: to any of those actors, and so this could send

345
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 8: a very troubling message to Auran that the US is

346
00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 8: not necessarily behind Israel in these moments. Something to look

347
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:04,600
Speaker 8: for is that this week the Biden administration was supposed

348
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 8: to certify whether or not Israel had been in violation

349
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 8: of international international humanitarian law in its operation in Gaza

350
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 8: as a condition put forward by the Senate to release

351
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:20,640
Speaker 8: additional arms. They missed the deadline for that certification. They've

352
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,400
Speaker 8: said it was not for political reasons. If for any

353
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 8: reason the United States fails to offer that certification, we

354
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 8: could see what is happening now become much more extreme.

355
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 2: Well, so let's just get to the bottom of this here,

356
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 2: because we're hearing a lot of confusing rhetoric in Washington

357
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 2: about the president's language about his decision to withhold these shipments.

358
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 10: Speaker of the.

359
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 2: House went so far as to accuse him of having

360
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 2: a senior moment, suggesting that he was somehow confused about

361
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 2: the supplemental that had just passed Congress. Is this Carmeil

362
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 2: a shift in policy or is this public diplomacy from

363
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 2: the White House.

364
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 8: Look, it's too early to tell, because what we're seeing

365
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 8: right now is that the US is delaying but hasn't

366
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 8: totally stopped these shipments. And we're also seeing that they

367
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 8: are reviewing and looking at what is going to happen

368
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,880
Speaker 8: in Rapha to determine whether or not they would fold

369
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 8: back other artillery or other things like that. So it's

370
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 8: a little bit early to say. But what you do

371
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,280
Speaker 8: here and see is that there had been a sweeping

372
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 8: bipartisan support for continued support to Israel from Congress and

373
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 8: the administration starting to take a step back. Whether or

374
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 8: not it's going to just be rhetoric in this moment,

375
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,400
Speaker 8: or we'll have real reverberating effects for the war yet

376
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 8: to be seen.

377
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 9: Well, when we think about the war and its future, Carmel,

378
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 9: as Joe and Ian were just discussing a moment ago,

379
00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 9: there were ongoing still our attempts to reach a ceasefire agreement,

380
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 9: though the two sides want very different things. Wants this

381
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 9: to be permanent, Israel does not. Is that more or

382
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 9: less likely now than it was yesterday?

383
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 8: I think as we see all the negotiating parties are

384
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 8: departing in real time. We are certainly further away from

385
00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 8: a ceasefire agreement than we had been, maybe even a

386
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 8: couple of days ago. That being said, there will continue

387
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 8: to be negotiations and it will continue to be ultimately

388
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 8: in the interests of both parties to pursue an end

389
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,880
Speaker 8: to this conflict. I think the real question is when.

390
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 8: For Hamas, they're looking for an end to conflict now

391
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 8: that won't require them to release the hostages and won't

392
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 8: require them to see power For the Israelis. They're looking

393
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 8: for the complete military distruction and removal for power from Us,

394
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 8: and they still have not achieved it. And so whether

395
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 8: or not they're able to come to a temporary ceasefire

396
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,359
Speaker 8: agreement or permanent ceasefire agreement is going to be a

397
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 8: question of timing.

398
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: I'm curious your thoughts in our remaining moment here on

399
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 2: the role that William Burns may or may not be

400
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,679
Speaker 2: playing in this From Cairo to Israel. Did he speak

401
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 2: with the Israelis about Rafa?

402
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 5: Yeah?

403
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 8: So the Israelis have generally felt that Bill Burns has

404
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 8: been a strong supporter and an critical partner in these negotiations.

405
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 8: But Bill Burns, of course is a part of this administration,

406
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 8: and so it's very likely that the Biden administration has

407
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 8: gotten fed up with the Israeli government and some of

408
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 8: its internal politics. It also laid out a very clear

409
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 8: red line about now the Israelis still need to decide

410
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 8: how pinpoint of an operation they're going to carry out

411
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 8: in raf Off versus a much larger scale operation that

412
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 8: they are being pressured to take on from their right.

413
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,959
Speaker 8: Bill Burns is playing an indispensable role in these negotiations,

414
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 8: and I expect you will.

415
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 10: Continue to well.

416
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 2: It's fascinating following his movements because it gives us a

417
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 2: sense of when something is about to happen. Krmeil Arbit

418
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: of the Atlantic Council, Karmel. Great to have you back

419
00:22:58,000 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: with us.

420
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 1: If you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast,

421
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,199
Speaker 1: catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Epocarplay.

422
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 5: And then Rounoto with the Bloomberg Business app.

423
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

424
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

425
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 2: Alongside Kaylee Lines. I am Joe Matthew compelled by the

426
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,679
Speaker 2: math today, which always gets a little bit dangerous but

427
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: the numbers don't lie, Kaylee. In the effort to oust

428
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: the Speaker of the House yesterday, this is Marjorie Taylor

429
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 2: Green's motion to vacate the MTV by MTG. One ninety

430
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 2: six House Republicans voted to table the motion. One hundred

431
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,160
Speaker 2: and sixty three Democrats did too. You couldn't have done

432
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: it without them. But eleven Republicans voted to oust the

433
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,880
Speaker 2: Speaker of the House, Kayley, That's more than many expected,

434
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,679
Speaker 2: and it makes us all wonder if we're done with

435
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 2: this now as we prepare to bring in Brian Style

436
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: from Capitol Hill, or if this is going to become

437
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 2: part of the new reality where we keep going through

438
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: this over and over again.

439
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 9: Well, we weren't sure we were going to go through

440
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 9: this when it became clear that Democrats were going to

441
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 9: save Mike Johnson if proved necessary. The conversation we were

442
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 9: having before five pm yesterday was this is an effort

443
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 9: on the part of Marjorie Taylor Green that is dead.

444
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,119
Speaker 9: And then she surprised us all on the House floor

445
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 9: actually making this move. So what exactly happened here, and

446
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 9: perhaps more importantly, what is going to happen as a consequence,

447
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,920
Speaker 9: Congressman Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin, is with us now. So, Congressman,

448
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 9: I'm not sure how surprised you were by the move

449
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 9: of your colleague last night. Certainly we were taken aback.

450
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 9: What should happen now to Marjorie Taylor Green and her

451
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 9: role within the House of Representatives.

452
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 11: This has been a challenging Congress and a narrow majority,

453
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 11: and there's a small subset of individuals that would rather

454
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,360
Speaker 11: throw the House into chaos that allow us to get

455
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 11: the work done. Eleven Republicans and a handful of far

456
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 11: progressive leftists joined together to throw the House into chaos.

457
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 11: At the end of the day, we were able to

458
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 11: table the motion with overwhelming numbers. And why because I

459
00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 11: think on the whole, Mike Johnson has actually done a

460
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 11: very admirable job and incredibly difficult circumstances. Time and again,

461
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 11: you hear people saying that we're not gonna be able

462
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 11: to get it done in the House of Representatives.

463
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 10: Yet we've done it time and again.

464
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 11: Whether or not that's the debt ceiling, whether or not

465
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 11: that's passing the appropriations bills that spends less this year

466
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 11: than last year on everything other than veterans in defense,

467
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 11: or whether or not that's moving through other key items

468
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 11: like the Defense supplemental and making sure that we're standing

469
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 11: with our ally Israel, and so. Speaker Johnson has done

470
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 11: an admirable job. It's frustrating that we continue to have

471
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 11: a small subset of members that would rather see us

472
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 11: thrown into chaos than focused in on the biggest issues.

473
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you about a couple of those congressmen,

474
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 2: but I wonder if you're compelled by what Donald Trump

475
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: is saying publicly about Mike Johnson. We're trying to figure

476
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: out what he meant. With a majority of one, he writes,

477
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: shortly growing to three or four, we are not in

478
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 2: a position of voting on a motion to vacate. At

479
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: some point, he writes, we may very well be. Do

480
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 2: you know what point he's talking about.

481
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 10: I'll let the President's speak for himself. He's got a

482
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 10: large pr team.

483
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 11: My view here is that what we need to be

484
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 11: is focused in between now and the election of persuading

485
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 11: American people why we're the party that needs to remain

486
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 11: in charge of the House of Representative has been a

487
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 11: large part. We need to grow our majority We obviously

488
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 11: have a small set of members who are interested in

489
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 11: the chaos and in the dysfunction. Many of us would

490
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 11: rather get on with the work of the American people

491
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 11: on absolutely essential bills, in particular addressing the reckless spending

492
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 11: and the broken border that we continue to see plag Americans.

493
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 9: Well, certainly there are a lot of issues that are

494
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 9: in focused domestically, Congressman, but also issues and focus geopolitically.

495
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 9: Of course, we've seen the Biden administration pausing a shipment

496
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 9: of offensive large bombs to Israel over concerns of the

497
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 9: way in which they may be used in a full

498
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 9: scale invasion of rafa I know that you have put

499
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 9: out a statement to you are not pleased with this

500
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 9: decision from the administration, But there is precedent for this, Sir.

501
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 9: This has been done by both Democratic and Republican administrations

502
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 9: in the past. What exactly is the problem here?

503
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 11: I think the President made the wrong move in trying

504
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 11: to prevent that shipment of weapons that are authorized by

505
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 11: the United State's House representatives, the Senate, and the President

506
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 11: himself for being able to be distributed, in particular at

507
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,879
Speaker 11: a period of time where we're all concerned about civilians

508
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,479
Speaker 11: getting in the way. Precision missiles from the United States

509
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,479
Speaker 11: actually allow the military and Israel to target terrorists from

510
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 11: Hamas and protect innocent civilian life. So the action by

511
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 11: the President is actually a step in the complete wrong direction.

512
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 11: We should be making sure that the resources we provided

513
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 11: through the Defense Supplemental to Israel are delivered and allow

514
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 11: Israel to complete this war, successfully, get the hostages returned,

515
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 11: and defeat the terrorist group Hamas.

516
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 2: These weapons, though, the two thousand pound bombs and the

517
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:41,200
Speaker 2: five hundred pound bombs, Congressmen were separate from the supplemental

518
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 2: that was passing the president's sign.

519
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:44,479
Speaker 1: Correct.

520
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 2: He did make the point in this interview on CNN

521
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 2: that we would continue to fulfill replenishing the Iron Dome

522
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: and so forth. That's what that legislation called for, right.

523
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 11: But broadly speaking, it's the overall funding that is the

524
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,879
Speaker 11: United States and support of Israel for them to complete

525
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 11: the termination of Hamas is a functioning operation and terrorist

526
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 11: organization in Gaza, and so when we see these funds

527
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 11: going to Israel, is to protect civilians in Israel, but

528
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 11: also the opportunity to make sure that we're allowing the

529
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 11: Israeli military to have the highest technology in the most

530
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:22,119
Speaker 11: functional sophisticated weaponry to be able to target terrorists in

531
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,719
Speaker 11: Gaza and be able to protect civilians. This is literally

532
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 11: the exact opposite of what the President should be doing.

533
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 11: We should be working to get Hamasas surrender and have

534
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 11: them release the hostages, and applying pressure by removing their

535
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 11: military capability allows Israel to do just that.

536
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 9: Congressman, I'm wondering is you're hearkening back to a supplemental

537
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 9: package that again included defensive weapons for Israel, primarily in

538
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:52,200
Speaker 9: addition to aid for other allies, including Ukraine. There is

539
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 9: policy in existence in the weapons that we are sending

540
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 9: to Ukraine. The US is not supportive of, say, Ukraine

541
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 9: offensively striking in Russian terar tery, for example, there are

542
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 9: guardrails around. Why are these two conflicts different?

543
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 11: In your mind, the President has some grounds to provide

544
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 11: those types of guardrails in his position as commander in chief.

545
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 11: I'm critiquing him in the decision that he is making

546
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 11: because I think it is the wrong decision and not

547
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 11: in the best interests in the United States of America.

548
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 11: These conflicts are different. In the most critical way that

549
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 11: they are is a terrorist group Hamas went and captured

550
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 11: innocent Israeli civilians, including American civilians, and continues to hold

551
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 11: them captive today in Gaza. So the support for Israel

552
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 11: is to allow them to simply defend themselves, but also

553
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 11: the necessary offensive capabilities to end the terrorist group Hamas

554
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 11: and get their civilians returned. That's in contrast with what's

555
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 11: playing out in Ukraine.

556
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, let me just turn that around for a moment, Congressman,

557
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: because I find this to be a really compelling conversation.

558
00:29:54,760 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 2: Should we consider providing Ukraine with offensive weaponry because Russia

559
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 2: came into Ukraine much the way Hamas came into Israel.

560
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: They certainly don't see it differently.

561
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 11: Well, the United States has provided obviously offensive weaponry to Ukraine.

562
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 11: The question is whether or not that weaponry should be

563
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 11: utilized outside the country. We all want to make sure

564
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 11: that this conflict does not continue to involve more countries

565
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 11: than it currently does. We don't want to escalate the situation.

566
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 11: I'm of the view that making sure that the Ukrainian

567
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 11: military has the weapons that they need to be able

568
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 11: to defend their country, to allow their men and women

569
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 11: on the frontline to be able to fight back against

570
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 11: an unjust and unprovoked invasion from Russia is appropriate, but

571
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 11: I think there are reasonable steps we need to make

572
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 11: sure that we're not unnecessarily increasing the conflict in Ukraine.

573
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 9: Congressman, given your role on the Financial Services Committee, I

574
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 9: want to ask you about another matter here at home.

575
00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 9: We just got the announcement from the Senate Banking Committee

576
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 9: that the financial regulators, including Michael Barr of the FED

577
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 9: and Marty Gruenberg of the FDIC, will be testified before

578
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 9: the committee next week. This is after that scathing third

579
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 9: party independent report into a toxic workplace culture at the

580
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 9: FDIC was released earlier this week. Many of your colleagues

581
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 9: on the committee have called for the resignation of the

582
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 9: chair as a result. But is that the way to

583
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 9: fix this problem, sir? Or something else needed?

584
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 11: When you have this level of cultural rot that's occurring

585
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 11: at the FDIC, as indicated by the most recent report

586
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 11: that comes out, it's absolutely necessary that mister Gruenberg resign.

587
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 11: He's going to come before us maybe on Wednesday, if

588
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 11: he doesn't resign before, and have to answer a series

589
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 11: of very difficult questions. This report makes it very clear

590
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 11: the cultural rot at the FDIC goes far down through

591
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 11: the management chain. It's clear they need new management at

592
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 11: the FDIC, and I'm concerned that the people protecting him

593
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 11: are interested because he has a seat at the table

594
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 11: as it relates to bank regulation in particular bank capital standards,

595
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 11: as we're exploring Basel three endgame.

596
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: So what's going to happen following this hearing?

597
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 10: Well, ultimately I think he should resign today.

598
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 11: If he fails to do that, I think this hearing

599
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 11: will flush out for the American people that he should resign.

600
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 11: If he's not, he should ultimately be removed. But this

601
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 11: hearing will flush out for a lot of the American

602
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 11: people that didn't take the time to read the report yet,

603
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 11: just how terrible the cultural rot is at the FDIIC.

604
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: It's quite a statement.

605
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 2: Congressman, It's good to see you. Thanks for being generous

606
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: with your time as always. Brian Style, the Republican from Wisconsin,

607
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: with us here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV

608
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: and radio.

609
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

610
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then.

611
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 5: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business Ad.

612
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

613
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

614
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 2: Speaker Mike Johnson, fresh off the vote that saw him

615
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 2: survive his attempt at Ouster with the help of Democrats,

616
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: thinks Joe Biden is having a senior moment when it

617
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: comes to Israel. We just spent a lot of time

618
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the broadcast talking about these weapons

619
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 2: that have been withheld paused is the word summer using

620
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 2: or delayed in shipment to Israel because of what appears

621
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: to be the imminent invasion of Rafa. The President holding

622
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 2: an interview on CNN last evening in which he made

623
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 2: clear that additional weapons would be withheld if the invasion

624
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: took place. Mike Johnson would like to know what happened.

625
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 5: Quote.

626
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: I went straight to the White House. I said, somebody's

627
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: got to have to explain this to me, because it's

628
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: very different than what I was told. I'll just interrupt

629
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 2: myself here and remind you of the conversation we had

630
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: earlier this hour with Jordan Fabien. This was not part

631
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: of the supplemental package that was just passed by Congress

632
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: and signed by the President, those were defensive missiles to

633
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: replenish the Eye Dome defensive weapons systems for the most part,

634
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 2: along with some other things. Mike Johnson goes on to say,

635
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 2: they said, this has nothing to do with the supplemental

636
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 2: package that you all passed. So this statement by the

637
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 2: President tonight, I just want to I hope I believe

638
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 2: he's off script. I don't think that's something that staff

639
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 2: told him to say unquote. We've seen many rank and

640
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 2: file Republicans criticize the President in interviews and in written

641
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 2: statements since this happened. We'll talk with one Republican member

642
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: next hour in Brian's style, But I'd love to know

643
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,360
Speaker 2: what the panel thinks about this. Some think it's in

644
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: about face something. It's consistent with what the President has

645
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 2: been saying about the war in Gaza. Rick Davis and

646
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, of course Bloomberg Politics contributors make up our

647
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 2: signature panel, and it's great to see both of you here. Genie,

648
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 2: is this more in line with what progressive Democrats want

649
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 2: to hear from Joe Biden? Is this a new message

650
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 2: or has he been consistent about the killing of civilians

651
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 2: in Gaza?

652
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, there is nothing he's going to say

653
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 7: that is going to appease the left, and certainly not this,

654
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 7: And that's one of the really difficult positions he finds

655
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 7: himself in. I mean, I was struck by a Palestinian

656
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 7: pro Palestinian and the protests that were going on and

657
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 7: both sides were screaming f Joe Biden. I mean, that's

658
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 7: the position he is in. So no, this is not

659
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 7: going to appease them. I do think it is consistent

660
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 7: with the red line he has been trying to draw

661
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 7: in terms of going into Rafa. It's, you know, very

662
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 7: little impact on the ground at this point. We know

663
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 7: that because the Israeli military has said that they've been

664
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 7: downplaying this. They have what they need to go in

665
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 7: in the Rafa. But it is the President sending a

666
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 7: message to Netanyahu in the war Cabinet saying I said,

667
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 7: don't do this, and he is keeping with that. But

668
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 7: politically this is a loser for Joe Biden and it

669
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 7: will be. But he's president, so he's got to make

670
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:02,759
Speaker 7: these tough decisions.

671
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 2: So now he's upsetting people on both sides. Right, rick

672
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 2: progressives were already angry, they were already protesting the policy

673
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 2: in Israel. Now he's making israel Hawks angry, including Republicans

674
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: in the case of the Speaker, of confusing the supplemental

675
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: with the stuff that's been withdrawn. Here is the president

676
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 2: making life more difficult politically here domestically.

677
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think politically for sure. I think in politics

678
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 12: the one clear message you always try to give to

679
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 12: campaigns is focus on your friends. Your enemies are never

680
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 12: going to really vote for you, right. I mean, the

681
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 12: idea that if someone dislikes Joe Biden somehow he's going

682
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 12: to change their mind and they're going to vote for

683
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 12: him is a high risk political strategy. And so I

684
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 12: think this falls into the classic I came to the

685
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 12: dance with Israel, and I'm leaving the dance with Israel,

686
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 12: and I just don't understand the political I'm not speaking

687
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 12: to the geopolitical nature of this, just the domestic US

688
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 12: politics of saying I'm going to be a stalwart supporter

689
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 12: of Israel, which is how he started this entire process,

690
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 12: and now to be doing backflips, being tied up like

691
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 12: a pretzel by the left of his party. I think

692
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 12: he's going to come out of this with no friends,

693
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 12: and that is a bad political strategy.

694
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 2: Well, he did say, Rick, we are going to continue

695
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 2: to make Israel, make sure Israel is secure in terms

696
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 2: of Iron Dome, referring to the supplemental and their ability

697
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 2: to respond to attacks, remembering the extent to which the

698
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 2: US cooperated with Israel and the UK and others to

699
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 2: fend off the attacks from Iran. Rick, are we going

700
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 2: to be in a situation with Israel that feels more

701
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 2: like Ukraine where we're providing defensive but not offensive weapons.

702
00:37:55,760 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 5: Yeah.

703
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,799
Speaker 12: Look, I mean it's a conundrum for Biden because that's

704
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 12: the easy out. Sure, we'll let Israel defend it self,

705
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 12: but we're not doing anything to help them with the

706
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 12: existential threat they have on their border from Hamas and

707
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 12: Hesbala in Iran. I mean, like, so the idea that

708
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 12: this administration is telling Israel hunker down, guys, for the

709
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:20,240
Speaker 12: rest of your existence. It's okay to have these terrorist

710
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 12: organizations trying to attack you every day, morning, noon, and night,

711
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,280
Speaker 12: and you can do nothing offensively to cure that problem.

712
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 12: But we'll give you as many missiles as it takes

713
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:34,160
Speaker 12: to keep their bombs from killing Israelis. It makes absolutely

714
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 12: no strategic sense whatsoever. And that has not been the

715
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 12: historic policy of the United States. And so I'm attributing

716
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 12: this similar to what some of our Republican friends are

717
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:47,919
Speaker 12: doing is saying it's kind of like saying that there's

718
00:38:47,960 --> 00:38:51,280
Speaker 12: no such thing as strategic ambiguity in Taiwan. In this case,

719
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 12: the White House has at least figured out not to

720
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 12: constantly correct their own president. But we hope that this

721
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 12: is not a policy.

722
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 2: Well Speaker calls it a senior moment Genie. What Joe

723
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 2: Biden did say to CNN quote, We're not walking away

724
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 2: from Israel's security, We're walking away from Israel's ability to

725
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:14,280
Speaker 2: wage war in those areas, referring to these dense population

726
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 2: centers like Rafa. Is it possible for him to walk

727
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: this line or is Rick right?

728
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 7: You know, it is possible for him to walk this line.

729
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 7: And I think we have to be clear. It is

730
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 7: one thing to talk about the impact on US politics,

731
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 7: that is, he's not going to appease anybody, as I

732
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 7: was saying earlier with this strategy, But in terms of

733
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 7: foreign policy, absolutely, you know, we have seen this time

734
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 7: and time again. Republican presidents have made this case. Go

735
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 7: back to Ronald Reagan, the reality is that no nation,

736
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 7: and the US included, gives aid to another country that

737
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 7: has absolutely no strings attached and is in violation of

738
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 7: our values and what is we define as our interests. Now,

739
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 7: I understand that people can see his policy is not

740
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 7: in our interest. But from Joe Biden's perspective, this is

741
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 7: what he is dealing with. And you know, you just look.

742
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 7: I mean, look at what Cindy McCain was saying over

743
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 7: the weekend. Northern Gaza in a full blown crisis in

744
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 7: terms of the food. They just do not have access.

745
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 7: Thirty five thousand people did two thirds of those women

746
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 7: and children. So you know, Joe Biden absolutely can make

747
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 7: the case, just like he has with Ukraine. And by

748
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 7: the way, wasn't Republicans who were saying on Ukraine we

749
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,959
Speaker 7: need to have oversight. There can't be a blank check.

750
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:39,879
Speaker 7: And I don't think we can describe walking this as

751
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 7: walking away from Israel. Fourteen billion dollars went to Israel

752
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,399
Speaker 7: last month. He is committed to that and he can

753
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 7: and will so. Domestically it's not a political winner for him, certainly,

754
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 7: but from a foreign policy perspective, there is a different question.

755
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 7: When you're talking about what is in the United States

756
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 7: best interest. And I would also add this, I'm sorry, Joe,

757
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 7: I know I'm going along. What is the end game

758
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 7: for Israel here? Many people think this is not in

759
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 7: Israel's best interest because the idea that you're going to

760
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 7: wipe out Hamas as you just had that great conversation

761
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 7: with Kelly, very very tough to do, almost never done.

762
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 7: And so if that's the endgame, that doesn't suit either

763
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 7: the US or Israel.

764
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: Well, you're bringing up the issue of humanitarian aid, which

765
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 2: is awfully important. It's something that we were lucky to

766
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 2: talk with Cindy McCain about at the World Food Program.

767
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 2: We're hearing from the World Health Organization today, Rick, and

768
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:37,840
Speaker 2: the situation is dire. They're talking about famine and the

769
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 2: statement from the WHO. Without more aid flowing into Gaza,

770
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 2: we cannot sustain our life saving support to hospitals.

771
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:47,440
Speaker 1: They're running out of gas.

772
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: So what extent can the US affect this now that

773
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: we've got this bridge up, and does that have a

774
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 2: political effect on the ground in Israel in Gaza.

775
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 12: Well, just to be totally clear, Sidney mccainnon is not

776
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 12: blaming the Israelis for the lack of support going in.

777
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 12: They have been supportive and opened.

778
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 5: Up the gates.

779
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 12: When her trucks go into Gaza full of food, they

780
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 12: are kidnapped and held hostage by Hamas and if not

781
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 12: outright robbed to where they take hundreds of trucks a

782
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 12: day resteer the food to their purposes. They at that

783
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 12: point the World Food Program and other aid agencies don't

784
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 12: have a clue where Hamas is taking it, and then

785
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 12: they mysteriously return the trucks so that they can get

786
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 12: another rate on those same So one of the things

787
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 12: we have to really understand. I completely disagree with whether

788
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 12: or not a democracy like Israel in and amongst a

789
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,720
Speaker 12: bunch of terrorist organizations is in the US national interest.

790
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 12: It is, and we've never micro micro managed their security situation.

791
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,840
Speaker 12: We've always been supported, which is why we don't have

792
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 12: conditions on a We should not be telling the Israelis

793
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 12: how to fight their fights. The bottom line is that

794
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 12: when you do some ship food into Israel or in

795
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 12: this case gasoline, let's say, Hamas interdicts that and they

796
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 12: use it in order to fight these Raelis. And so

797
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 12: unless you level set what is actually happening on the

798
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 12: ground there, you're really never going to solve any of

799
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,319
Speaker 12: these problems until at which point in time the war ends,

800
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 12: and that's when you have basically got either a surrender

801
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 12: or the extinction of Hamas. Those are the terms under

802
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 12: which we are all operating. Israel now has control of

803
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 12: the Rapagate. That's the first time we don't have Hamas

804
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 12: in charge of determining what food comes in and out

805
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 12: of the Rapagate. That is a very big positive. The

806
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 12: US has now built the pier that will soon be operational,

807
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 12: and that will be the first time that we have

808
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 12: the coast that is controlled by Hamas. And so I

809
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 12: think that yes, there are enormous problems associated with this,

810
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 12: but we have to really understand who the problem maker is,

811
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 12: and the problem maker to getting food and gasoline to

812
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 12: the people of of Palsen is Hummas. It's very limited

813
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 12: control that Israel has to the point of which they

814
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 12: are the ones being able to support the humanitarian needs.

815
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 12: So I just want to level set that because I

816
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:17,400
Speaker 12: think we're hearing a lot of disinformation. Other than in Genie,

817
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 12: I would have blamed it on the Chinese.

818
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: Well, I want to make sure everyone has a chance

819
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 2: to make their points here. Genie Shanzino, Rick Davis. Thanks

820
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,000
Speaker 2: for listening to the Balance of Power podcasts. Make sure

821
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or

822
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

823
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

824
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.