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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so

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Speaker 1: smoothe so sweet, slipid sisting, just glorious execution. Guys, all

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent

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Speaker 1: of the time. How shot with that shop with fine bod, buddy,

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Speaker 1: And that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at

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Speaker 1: his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Again.

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Speaker 2: The wall, it's left too.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed drill fiffus, How old earth big that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to another episode of Wonder Goal, presented

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Speaker 1: by the Action Network. I am your host today BJ Cunningham,

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Speaker 1: alongside my colleague and friend Anthony Dubundo. We will be

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Speaker 1: taking you across the European landscape, breaking down all the

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Speaker 1: weekend matches in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Syria, A, La

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Speaker 1: Liga and League One. We'll start in England, but we're

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Speaker 1: not actually gonna start in the Premier League because there

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Speaker 1: is a League Cup final going on on Sunday at

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Speaker 1: at Wembley. Liverpool is taking on Chelsea. Liverpool is plus

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Speaker 1: one forty Chelsea sitting at plus two to fifteen. With

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Speaker 1: the draw at plus two to twenty, Liverpool is minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty to lift the cup while Chelsea is plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty. It's a very interesting match. Both teams have

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Speaker 1: been in action quite a bit over the past two weeks,

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Speaker 1: Chelsea obviously playing Lil beating them to nothing in the

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Speaker 1: Champions League this week Liverpool thrashing Leads six to nothing

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday. These two have met already twice this season.

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Speaker 1: The first meeting at Anfield was a one to one draw.

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Speaker 1: The second was a two two draw, very chaotic two

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Speaker 1: two draw where four goals were scored in the first

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Speaker 1: half at Stamford Bridge. I don't really have any lot

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Speaker 1: for this match. I'm pretty dead on with what the

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Speaker 1: the odds are along with the lift the cups, so

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Speaker 1: I will be passing on this cup match. Anthony, what

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Speaker 1: do you have for the Carabell Cup final?

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Speaker 2: He you know, I lost playing against both teams in

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Speaker 2: the midweek, had some leal and they you know, had

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Speaker 2: a decent first half and then really just couldn't put

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Speaker 2: the pieces together offensively in the second half. And then

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Speaker 2: Leeds oh that was embarrassing, not even close to scoring.

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Speaker 2: They did have a goal, but it was offside. Both

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Speaker 2: defenses continue to overperform relative to what the chances they're

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Speaker 2: allowing and the chances conceded Liverpool in the first meeting.

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Speaker 2: I think it's important to note they were at home,

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Speaker 2: but they did manage nine first half shots against Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: They really dominated the match. They conceded off of a corner,

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Speaker 2: but then they there was a penalty and a red

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Speaker 2: card right before halftime against Chelsea that pretty much ended

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Speaker 2: the match because it was one one at that point

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Speaker 2: and then it was just attack and defend with Liverpool

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Speaker 2: going after Chelsea. So the numbers are a bit skewed,

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Speaker 2: but when it was eleven on the eleven, Liverpool was

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Speaker 2: the dominant side. And really the same was true at

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Speaker 2: Stanford Bridge for the first half hour. Mateo Kovichic scored

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Speaker 2: a wonder goal that got the game, you know, kind

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Speaker 2: of turned on its head. And then really I thought

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Speaker 2: Chelsea were the better side in the second half of

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Speaker 2: that match. I agree, I don't show a ton on

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Speaker 2: the full game here, A tiny smidge of an edge

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Speaker 2: for Liverpool, I think, and my number show and I

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Speaker 2: agree with that, and I think Liverpool's rightly the favorite side.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're clearly in the tier of their own

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Speaker 2: with Manchester City. But minus one forty five one fifty

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Speaker 2: to lift the trophy and one one forty five to

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Speaker 2: draw an no bet if you wanted to take extra

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Speaker 2: time out of it. Not a ton of value in

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Speaker 2: the number. But I think this is going to be

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Speaker 2: more open than your typical Cup final and that's where

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Speaker 2: I'm betting this, and I'm going to bet both teams

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Speaker 2: to score minus one oh eight. Leal didn't generate a

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Speaker 2: lot of good chances on Tuesday, but they did get

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Speaker 2: nine first half shots, which I know none of them

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Speaker 2: were high quality and Tookle's fine with that, but that's

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Speaker 2: a sign that Chelsea didn't quite have the game control

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Speaker 2: that they are used to and that they really, you know,

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Speaker 2: Leal kind of took it to them in certain spots

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Speaker 2: and I think Liverpool is gonna be able to do

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Speaker 2: the same exact thing. With that being said, as much

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Speaker 2: as Liverpool over commits, I think there's going to be

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Speaker 2: space for Chelsea to get in behind here and I

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Speaker 2: think especially Kai Havertz, the way he played on Tuesday

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Speaker 2: is very encouraging. Got five shots, a goal, could have

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Speaker 2: had two. He's been really good and I think him

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Speaker 2: linking up would say Christian Pool is sick. And I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to play the same front three Ziech

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Speaker 2: assuming he's healthy. That's a pretty good lethal counter attacking unit.

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Speaker 2: And I think they're going to be very dangerous on

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Speaker 2: the counter against Liverpool, who leaves were flat today, but

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Speaker 2: you go back, they did concede to Norwich, which was amazing,

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Speaker 2: and you know against Burnley not that long ago, also

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Speaker 2: we're danger. You know we're in danger at least on

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Speaker 2: the counter. So this defense I still think can be exploited,

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Speaker 2: the way they play, the pressure they.

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Speaker 1: Put on the ball.

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Speaker 2: And I'm going to go both teams to score here

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Speaker 2: minus one oh eight. I actually make it minus one seventeen,

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Speaker 2: so a little bit of value, not a huge edge.

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Speaker 2: This is a Cup final, you expect the mark to

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Speaker 2: be pretty efficient for it. But I do think both

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Speaker 2: teams will get on the board here. I think it's

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Speaker 2: a one one, two one type game for Liverpoo.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I have a lot of concerns with

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Speaker 1: Chelsea's defensively, especially on the wings. Obviously with Rhys James

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Speaker 1: and Ben Chowell being injured as Pila Quelta and Marco

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Speaker 1: Alonso guarding Saloon Mane is a really really bad matchup

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Speaker 1: for them. Plus, Alonzo gets forward way too often finds

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Speaker 1: himself way over committed, leaving Chelsea pretty vulnerable, where Ruger

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Speaker 1: has to pick up a lot of his junk that

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Speaker 1: he leaves out there. So it works against teams that

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Speaker 1: won't be able to hurt you like that, but when

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Speaker 1: you have Salo and Mona on the other side, it's

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Speaker 1: a much different story.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that Alonso's even going to start, by

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Speaker 2: the way tucl yanked him in the second half and

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Speaker 2: was pretty pissed, visibly upset. You know, he might be

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Speaker 2: looking elsewhere for starting positions. I mean, their fullback situation

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Speaker 2: just is not sorted out because Chilwell and James have

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Speaker 2: been out for so long and they've never really solved it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you might see sar out there, would be my guest.

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Speaker 1: If he doesn't play, That's what we brought in for him.

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Speaker 1: It's just so many times he gets way way too

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Speaker 1: far forward and just leaves so much opener on the right,

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Speaker 1: and you saw it with you know, Reneto Sanchez is

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Speaker 1: able to hurt him pretty much a lot around the

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Speaker 1: right flank, so Mosalla is a little probably the best

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Speaker 1: one at doing that. So and he did it in

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Speaker 1: the first meeting. Alexander Arnold torched him up the right

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Speaker 1: side so with a great pass. So yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's obviously Liverpool's are really favored. I don't hate both

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Speaker 1: teams to score. Liverpool obviously hasn't been tested that well

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Speaker 1: defensively outside of a match against Inner Belan since the

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Speaker 1: Chelsea match, so it'll be a fun one. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: Liverpool rightly favored. All right, Let's move on to There's

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Speaker 1: a Friday afternoon, Friday Night Lights match on the South coast.

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Speaker 1: Southampton is hosting Norwich. Southampton is minus one eighty. Norwich

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Speaker 1: is sitting at plus five hundred, with the draw at

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Speaker 1: plus three twenty. I'll start, I actually do really like

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Speaker 1: Southampton in this match. There's a ton of matchup problems

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Speaker 1: for Norwich, considering they are one of the worst teams

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Speaker 1: and the really got playing through pressure, and given how

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Speaker 1: hot Southampton's offense has been, it's really really hard for

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Speaker 1: me to look away from the Saints. On the spread

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Speaker 1: at minus one, Southampton offensively over the last month been

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Speaker 1: much better, created nine point five expected goals in their

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Speaker 1: last six matches, and I've played some really difficult competition

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Speaker 1: during that run, which included Brentford Wolves, man City, Tottenham,

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Speaker 1: Manchester United and Everton. This is also a revenge spot

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Speaker 1: for Southampton who lost Norwich the first time these two

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Speaker 1: met two to one, but Southampton was the better side

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Speaker 1: in that match. They won the next battle one point

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Speaker 1: one two point five. They held sixty three percent possession,

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Speaker 1: had thirty four touches in the penalty area compared to

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Speaker 1: only sixteen for Norwich. Norwich by far and away the

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Speaker 1: worst road team in the Premier League minus fifteen point

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Speaker 1: four expected goal differential in only eleven road matches. Also,

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Speaker 1: it's worth mentioning that Norwich has failed to create over

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Speaker 1: one expected goal in nine of their last ten matches.

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Speaker 1: So I think this is a fantastic match for Southampton.

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Speaker 1: I have their spread projected at minus one point two,

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Speaker 1: so a decent amount of value on the Saints at

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Speaker 1: minus one oh five. Do you have anything for Saints

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Speaker 1: versus Canaries?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I have a slight leaning toward Norwich.

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Speaker 2: It's very slight, and it's just basically my numbers say

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Speaker 2: that Southampton's a little overvalued. Now I would also consider

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Speaker 2: Norwich to score. I you know, can I go again

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Speaker 2: back to the well on our favorite team? Now, by

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Speaker 2: the way, Norwich is my favorite team after that goal

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Speaker 2: they scored against Liverpool, both teams to score it is

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Speaker 2: only minus one fifteen. So I think you know the

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Speaker 2: way that Saints play, even as a favorite, they are

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Speaker 2: prone to conceding one or two big chances every match

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Speaker 2: and it's just how it is. And I know Norwich

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Speaker 2: is doesn't really poor against pressure, and that's the main

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Speaker 2: reason that I probably stay off this, just because I

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Speaker 2: don't like the stilistic matchup. But you know, Norwich created chances.

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Speaker 2: They actually scored you know, two goals in the in

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Speaker 2: the first meeting in this match, and it was zero

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Speaker 2: point seven expected goals. It was not a deserved victory.

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Speaker 2: They were pummeled for large stretches of it. But they

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Speaker 2: hang around and they created one or two big chances

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Speaker 2: and they took them. So I think Norwich can get

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Speaker 2: on the board and I think they can be somewhat competitive.

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Speaker 2: And Southampton, you know, twelfth in box entries and seventeenth

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Speaker 2: and crosses their seventh and shot eighth in expected goals,

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Speaker 2: so those numbers tend to converge toward the progression numbers

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Speaker 2: in the long term. And you could argue that Southampton

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Speaker 2: wins the ball high up the pitch, they create, you know,

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Speaker 2: these big moments, and that's a fair argument, but you

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Speaker 2: would also see that more in the big scoring chances,

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Speaker 2: and they're only eighth there as well. So good numbers,

195
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Speaker 2: but I wonder if that's going to sustain itself going forward.

196
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Speaker 2: So I think also you have a motivational mismatch here.

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Speaker 2: Southampton is one of the five and we'll get into

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Speaker 2: more of that later as the season gets on, but

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Speaker 2: they're just safe in the mid table here and Nora

200
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:32,680
Speaker 2: is just fighting for their lives in the league. So

201
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,200
Speaker 2: I think, you know, you could get an inspired effort overall.

202
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:37,520
Speaker 2: You know, I tried to sell high on the Saints,

203
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Speaker 2: we both did last week and they rolled Everton. That

204
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Speaker 2: was not a competitive match whatsoever, and I you know,

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Speaker 2: that makes me hesitant here again. But I still think

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Speaker 2: we're getting to the point where we're getting pretty high

207
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Speaker 2: on on Southampton at home here, but overall going to

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Speaker 2: end up probably passing here. If I do play anything,

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Speaker 2: we might be going back to the both teams to

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Speaker 2: score or a little narwage attack. Baby, they we'll get

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Speaker 2: a three to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's go that, all right. Let's move on

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Speaker 1: to Saturday. Early Saturday morning, seven thirty am Eastern Time,

214
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Speaker 1: Leeds United is hosting Tottenham Hotspur. Tottenham is a minus

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Speaker 1: one or five road favorite, leads, sitting at plus two

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Speaker 1: seventy with the draw at plus two seventy five. I'll

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Speaker 1: let you start as the resident Spurs fan on this podcast.

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Speaker 1: How are we feeling after coming off a pretty poor

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Speaker 1: performance at turf More on Wednesday?

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Speaker 2: It with Shawkin. You know, Tottenham pretty much undoes all

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Speaker 2: the goodwill they did on Saturday with the win at

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Speaker 2: Manchester City and you know, look, you know, if you

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Speaker 2: want to take a step back, and I know everybody's

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Speaker 2: freaking out over the comments and Antonio Conte had after

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Speaker 2: the match, if you take a step back, I mean

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Speaker 2: they got three points from City and Burnley away, and

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Speaker 2: you know, coming into the week I would have told you, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we'll probably get about three points from City and Burnley away.

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Speaker 2: It's a tough way that it went down and it

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Speaker 2: definitely hurts their top four chances. But overall, I think

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Speaker 2: we have two clubs here who seem to both be

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Speaker 2: in different states of peril, with you know, Spurs losing

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Speaker 2: four or five and Leads playing two hundred and six

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Speaker 2: nine of the worst minutes I think I've seen from

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Speaker 2: a Prem team all year. And that goes the one

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Speaker 2: minute where they scored two goals against Manchester United. One

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Speaker 2: was across and then they had the nice goal. The

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Speaker 2: other two hundred and sixty nine minutes thrashed at Everton,

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Speaker 2: thrashed by United, absolutely annihilated today by Liverpool, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of this Leads team anymore.

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Speaker 2: Is it be also burnout? Because I think that's really

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Speaker 2: the biggest question mark you have to answer with Leeds

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Speaker 2: as we go into the second half. Could they get

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Speaker 2: relegated if they're really cooked? There's an outside shot. I don't.

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Speaker 2: I still don't think so, because I think they have

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Speaker 2: banked enough points and they're still better than Norwich and

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Speaker 2: Watford and probably better than Burnley. But there are concerns absolutely,

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Speaker 2: and they've been better at home than away. But even

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Speaker 2: their last home match against United that wasn't very competitive.

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Speaker 2: You know, again, Leeds got their goals in that one

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Speaker 2: minute span, and they were decent for maybe twenty minutes.

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Speaker 2: But United pretty much bost the entire match, and Tottenham,

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Speaker 2: you know, you give them similar to United, I think

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Speaker 2: in a lot of ways right now, you give them

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Speaker 2: space to run into. It gets ugly fast, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I think if leads are going to try to press

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Speaker 2: them and play them off the pitch, Spurs will absolutely

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Speaker 2: take advantage of those spaces. Kane dropping in, getting the ball, turning,

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Speaker 2: firing in, Kuleseevsky and Sown. They'll be able to do

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Speaker 2: enough of that to really rip apart this lead's defense.

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Speaker 2: So I think Spurs, while they are struggling for results,

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Speaker 2: the process, the expected goals, the box entries, they're all

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Speaker 2: relatively positive and I think Spurs fans, it's painful. You

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Speaker 2: just got to wait it out. I think the good

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Speaker 2: run is coming. But leads, I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 2: if they bounce back here on short rest and they've

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Speaker 2: struggled against the top six with be also their whole

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Speaker 2: time in the prem So I think this is a

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Speaker 2: bad matchup and I'm rolling with Spurs to bounce back

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Speaker 2: and get a win on the road. Money line plus

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Speaker 2: one hundred. I don't actually have a ton of value

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Speaker 2: in the number either. I think I make Spurs one

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Speaker 2: one oh five, so not a ton of value in

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Speaker 2: the number. But all the market also hasn't really moved.

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Speaker 2: You could say, oh, le he bounced back after they

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Speaker 2: got embarrassed, but the market did move a single cent

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Speaker 2: as a time of recording from Wednesday afternoon when Leeds

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Speaker 2: got thrash six nail and Wednesday night when we're recording

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Speaker 2: this right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tragic, you know, you do that, you get

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Speaker 1: that great win at Manchester City and then follow over

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Speaker 1: with the tragic loss of Burnley. It's just sad, you know.

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Speaker 1: Top four hopes are really starting to wane. Sad stuff.

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Speaker 1: But I agree with you. I love over three goals

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Speaker 1: at plus one twenty. I don't see anything but chaos

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Speaker 1: in this match, which is pretty much all Leads and

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Speaker 1: has been doing lately. Obviously Tottenham had the one nil

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Speaker 1: lost today, but they've been playing some pretty chaotic matches themselves,

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Speaker 1: Spurs last seven matches averaging over three and a half

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Speaker 1: expected goals. I mean you saw it today, Leads, and

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Speaker 1: you've mentioned it. Leads an absolute mess defensively last ten matches,

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Speaker 1: they're allowing on average around two point five expected goals

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Speaker 1: per match. That is really bad. They're now dead last

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League and non penalty expected goals allowed

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Speaker 1: sixteenth and shots per ninety allowed fifteenth in big scoring

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Speaker 1: chances allowed. That does not bode well against the Tottenham

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Speaker 1: offense that has been ripping people apart on the counter

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Speaker 1: under Antonio Conte. Under him, I think I mentioned the

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Speaker 1: last week round two point one expected goals per match

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Speaker 1: with him in charge, created thirty big scoring chances in

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Speaker 1: thirteen matches. When these two actually faced off at white

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Speaker 1: Hart Lane in Kante's second match in charge with Tottenham

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Speaker 1: tot Ham, we got a two to one win. Expected

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Speaker 1: goals battle was pretty indicative of the final score. But

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Speaker 1: Leeds did have Calvin Phillips for that match and he

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Speaker 1: is very, very very vital to helping out protect that

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Speaker 1: back line. Without him, you've seen it's just been an

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Speaker 1: absolute mess. He will not be available for this match,

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Speaker 1: so I really struggle to see how Leeds is going

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Speaker 1: to keep Tottenham to under three goals. But Leeds offensively, obviously,

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Speaker 1: they really really poor their last two except for a

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Speaker 1: couple of minutes against Man United, but they are averaging

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Speaker 1: around you know, one point four expected goals in their

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Speaker 1: last ten matches. Well, you know, the obviously been pretty

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Speaker 1: shaky defensively, so I do up an over here. I

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Speaker 1: have three point three goals projected, so I like that

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Speaker 1: value on over three goals at plus one twenty. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on on Saturday to Brentford hosting Newcastle in

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Speaker 1: a very very interesting match. I'll let you start. What

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Speaker 1: do you have for Brentford Newcastle at the beautiful Brentford

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Speaker 1: Community Stadium.

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Speaker 2: Brentford's got three home. There are three matches coming up.

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Speaker 2: They've got Newcastle at home, They've got No Rch away,

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Speaker 2: They've got Burnley at home. Those are three teams who

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Speaker 2: are in the bottom four, three teams who should be

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Speaker 2: in the relegation fight, three teams who Brentford for the

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Speaker 2: vast majority of this season has been better than and

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Speaker 2: the Bees are pretty unlucky. You know, this season as

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Speaker 2: a whole, their XT difference is tenth minus point one

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Speaker 2: point four per ninety. They've been a slightly below average team.

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Speaker 2: I've had them fourteenth coming into the season. I still

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Speaker 2: have them fourteenth actually, so I haven't really upgraded or

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Speaker 2: downgraded them in the slightest relative to the beginning of

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Speaker 2: the season. There's been ups and down in the middle

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Speaker 2: the last nine matches though, for Brentford seventeenth expected goal difference,

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Speaker 2: so just above the bottom three, while Newcastle in their

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Speaker 2: last six is tenth and expected goal difference since Christmas,

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Speaker 2: so they played a different number of matches because of cancelations.

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Speaker 2: But since Christmas Brentford seventeenth, Newcastle tenth. Pretty concerning that

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Speaker 2: being said, I think Brentford has been more unlucky than

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Speaker 2: bad at home their last three home matches. They lost

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Speaker 2: to United and that was the famous post match interview

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Speaker 2: that Frank Gabe. He said, we played him off the

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Speaker 2: park in the first half. We should have had one

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Speaker 2: or two we didn't convert. United took their chances second half,

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Speaker 2: but overall United and Brentford played about even, which is

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Speaker 2: a pretty impressive result for Brentford. Then they played at

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Speaker 2: home against Wolves one point three expected goals to point two.

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Speaker 2: Wolves scored twice, continuing this Wolves luck box run that

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Speaker 2: has persisted recently, and they lost to one, so another

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Speaker 2: unfortunate result. Then they played Palace. I had him in

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Speaker 2: that match as well. I think I had them in

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Speaker 2: all three matches at home Draw Palace, but again expected

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Speaker 2: goals dominated. The match were pretty even, but Brentford shots

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Speaker 2: much more high quality one point five expected goals. So

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Speaker 2: over the last three matches they have out created their

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Speaker 2: opponents five to three in expected goals, yet they are

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Speaker 2: two and five goals four goals against in those matches.

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Speaker 2: I just don't really think that it's time to hit

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Speaker 2: the panic button. If they don't win any of the

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Speaker 2: next three matches, it's time to hit the panic button

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Speaker 2: on Brentford, but I'm not going to do it yet,

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Speaker 2: and I'm going to back them here at home against Newcastle,

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Speaker 2: so I'm taking them minus one twenty five on the

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Speaker 2: drawn o bet line. I think this is as low

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Speaker 2: as you're going to get for now, hopefully on the

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Speaker 2: market on Brentford, and I think our Bees bounced back

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Speaker 2: and they get a home deserved win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you hit the nail on the head right there.

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Speaker 1: I think we've reached the bottom of the market here

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Speaker 1: for Brentford, who are barely being favored over a relegation

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Speaker 1: side of home is pretty much the bottom of the

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Speaker 1: market for them, given how good their underlying performances have been.

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Speaker 1: They're obviously on a seven match winless streak, but like

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Speaker 1: you mentioned, with those three home matches over this winless streak,

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Speaker 1: they've lost by a combined score of sixteen to four,

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Speaker 1: but the expected goals has only been eleven point seven

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Speaker 1: to seven point five, So it really, really, it's just

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Speaker 1: really not as bad as it seems for Brentford. Now,

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Speaker 1: Newcastle coming in this match is going to be with

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Speaker 1: how kerrieon Trippier, Calum Wilson and Matt Ritchie. Also, Allan

382
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Speaker 1: Say Maxim and Ryan Fraser are both questionable to play,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see that obviously hurts Newcastle. Both of them

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Speaker 1: can't play. Since the January transfer wind to ended, Newcastle's

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Speaker 1: performances obviously have improved. However, they're still struggling to play

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Speaker 1: through pressure. So over the last five matches their offensive

387
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Speaker 1: pass per defensive action is been seven point nine, which

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Speaker 1: is dead last in the Premier League during that time span.

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Speaker 1: So Brentford's for neetic pressing should be able to have

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Speaker 1: some decent amount of success here, especially at home. It

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Speaker 1: also looks like Brentford could get Ivan Tony back, which

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Speaker 1: would be huge for them. He's questionable currently, he's obviously

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Speaker 1: their leading goals scorer, you know, top x G plus

394
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Speaker 1: expected assists rate for ninety minutes for them. So I

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Speaker 1: actually have Brentford projected as a pretty significant favorite here

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Speaker 1: at home. So I I'm with you. I love the Bees.

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Speaker 1: Drawn no bet at minus one twenty five. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to one of our other favorite teams,

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Speaker 1: Brighton hosting Aston Villa at the beautiful American Express Community

400
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Speaker 1: Stadium on the South coast. Brighton is plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 1: Aston Villa sitting at plus two twenty with the draw

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Speaker 1: at plus two thirty. I'll let you start for this one.

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Speaker 1: I obviously, like many weeks, I love our Seagulls, but

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Speaker 1: I'll let you give everybody your thoughts first.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm calling them the mid table five. I haven't

406
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Speaker 2: had a good name yet for them. But if you

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Speaker 2: go through the races, there's fifteen teams in this league

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Speaker 2: right now who are competing for something, whether it's the

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Speaker 2: title race with Liverpool and City, whether it's the top

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Speaker 2: four race with Sworda, Chelsea, Arsenal United, West Ham, Tottenham Wolves,

411
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Speaker 2: and then there's the relegation teams. There's five teams Brighton

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Speaker 2: Villa Palace after today Southampton and lester who are kind

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Speaker 2: of just chilling right and they don't really have a

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Speaker 2: ton on the line for the next few rounds of

415
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Speaker 2: matches where it's kind of like, okay, we're safe, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're kind of just going through the motions. It's just

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Speaker 2: any other match. Brighton and Villa not exactly a rivalry.

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Speaker 2: I just wonder what the defensive intensity and with the

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Speaker 2: match is going to really look like here, and it

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Speaker 2: doesn't tend to become an issue until later in the season,

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Speaker 2: and we'll we'll get into that more later in the year.

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Speaker 2: But I really think we have two very inefficient attacks

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Speaker 2: who are among the four worst in the league at

424
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Speaker 2: converting possession in the final third into shots, into goals,

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Speaker 2: into expected goals. And Villa had a good attacking performance

426
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Speaker 2: at home against Watford and loss. Brighton very flat against Burnley.

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Speaker 2: They lost three nail. Burnley took a bunch of chances,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't really a three nail type game. So I

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Speaker 2: think there's two ways this can go. This can go

430
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 2: where you know, the regression comes for these these attacks

431
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 2: and we and these defenses and we actually see goals

432
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:36,439
Speaker 2: in this match. No pun intended or it's just a

433
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,679
Speaker 2: dead game, and so I'm happy to pass here. I

434
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,880
Speaker 2: think Brighton the number is right, the mark's pretty sharp here,

435
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: and I don't really have a strong read on it,

436
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 2: so I'm going to pass. And it's not really a

437
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: game that you know you're getting up for, you know,

438
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,199
Speaker 2: it's kind of just blends in on Saturday at ten

439
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: a m.

440
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 1: The Brighton never blends in, Anthony. I mean, it's a

441
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 1: you have to on that. I definitely lean Brighton here,

442
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 1: but like you said, so Brighton's now seven points off

443
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 1: of the top sevens of the last European spot, but

444
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,280
Speaker 1: both teams ahead of them have a game in hand,

445
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,920
Speaker 1: so you know, getting later into the season, it's like,

446
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 1: all right, how much does this really matter? Astonville obviously,

447
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,719
Speaker 1: like you said, very comfortably in the mid table, probably

448
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 1: not even getting in the you know, in the relegation.

449
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 1: Even thought right now, I'm not really going to overreact

450
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:21,959
Speaker 1: to what, you know, Brighton's three zer loss to Burnley

451
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 1: at home. The final expected goals is only point five

452
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 1: to point eight. Burnley just basically converted three low quality

453
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 1: chances and that was the difference. But I think the

454
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 1: matchup if Brighton, you know, comes out motivated, ready to go,

455
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,160
Speaker 1: is a pretty good one for them. They'll be getting

456
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 1: their captain Lewis dunk back, which from rep card suspension,

457
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 1: which is obviously big and the big advantage for them

458
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: here is going to be their pressing. We've talked about

459
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: a ton, but the Seagulls currently sit third and passes

460
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,679
Speaker 1: per defensive action first and precious success rate and third

461
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 1: in high turnovers. Well. Aston Villa is near the bottom

462
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 1: against pressure, seventeenth in offensive pass per defensive action. Astonville

463
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: did create one point three expected goals against Watford last week,

464
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: but under Gerrard, like I'm mentioned last week, they've been

465
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: quite bad, only one point zero four x chiep per match.

466
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 1: Now that to face the top five defense in Brighton,

467
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,960
Speaker 1: who is fifth in non penalty expected goal is allowed

468
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: and the number one team in the Premier League in

469
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 1: preventing big scoring chances. Brighton defensively, though, has been pretty

470
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 1: unbelievable at home since the beginning of November. In their

471
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: last nine matches at the American Express Community Stadium, they're

472
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: all allowing point five to seven xchie per match and

473
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: only one opponent has created over one expected goal against

474
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: them in a match against their defense, so this is

475
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 1: also revenge spot for Brighton. It was Steven gyards first

476
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,159
Speaker 1: match in charge when these two met. It was a

477
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 1: very very low event game. Asten Bill only created zero

478
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: point six expected goals but one two nothing and only

479
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 1: had nine shots in the match. So from a number standpoint,

480
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,440
Speaker 1: I have Brighton projected at plus one oh four. But

481
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 1: the problem is that we've talked about at a ton

482
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: is that Brighton getting margin against some of these lower sides,

483
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: especially as a favorite, is really really bad over the

484
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: last two years. They are the least profitable team in

485
00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: the Premier League as a favorite. So I am happy

486
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 1: to pass unless I can get Brighton drawn O bet

487
00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 1: at least a decent number, but yeah, probably gonna end

488
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 1: up being a snoozer unfortunately. All right, let's move on.

489
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: On Saturday at ten am Eastern Crystal Palace coming off

490
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 1: a thumping for to one win over Watford. On Wednesday,

491
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 1: they are hosting Burnley, who are also coming off a

492
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 1: one to no win over Tottenham. Crystal Palace is sitting

493
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 1: at minus one ten, Burnley at plus three ten, with

494
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: the draw at plus two sixty five. I'll start I

495
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 1: love Crystal Palace here I honestly think the number is

496
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 1: a little low. Even though Burnley has been pretty hot

497
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 1: winning two straight here, they obviously have been playing a

498
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: little bit better three noh went over Brighten one to

499
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: win over Tottenham. It really helps them in their relegation fight.

500
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: They're obviously very very motivated right now, while Crystal Palace

501
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 1: is pretty comfortable in the mid table. But Burnley still

502
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 1: one of the worst defenses in the Premier League. They

503
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: rank dead last and shots love for ninety dead last

504
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 1: and box entries allowed. So Crystal Palace should be able

505
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,640
Speaker 1: to create chances like they did in the first meeting,

506
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: which was a chaotic three to three draw at turf More.

507
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: But Crystal Palace was by far the better side that

508
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: day one unexpected goals two point zero to one point three,

509
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: controlled sixty one percent of the possession I shot them,

510
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 1: had more touched in the penalty, just a really much

511
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 1: better performance in the eagles, and like Burnley does quite

512
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 1: a bit, they take advantage of their low quality chances

513
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: and they can somehow stay in the match. The biggest

514
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: thing for me here though, and I mean we've talked

515
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 1: about it, like I don't know, but like seven straight

516
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 1: weeks or whatever it is, is the home road splits

517
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: for Crystal Palace. At home, they're the fourth best team

518
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: in the Premier League plus seven point seven expected gold differential. Well,

519
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 1: Burnley has a minus ten point five expected goal differential

520
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: on the road. So that's really where I'm loving Crystal

521
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: Palace in this one. And there also are a couple

522
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: concerned for Crystal Palace in this matchup. First off, they're

523
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: not good defending stet pieces. They're twelve on the season,

524
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: which is second to last in the Premier League. They're

525
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: also not good at defending crosses. They're sixteenth and crosses

526
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: allowed into the eighteen yard box, so that's obviously not

527
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 1: good when you're facing Burnley. But even with those problems,

528
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 1: I think the price is too low for the Eagles.

529
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: I have them projected at minus one fifty three, so

530
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: I love the Eagles at minus one ten. Do you

531
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: have anything for Palace versus Burnley?

532
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was surprised by his number when I first

533
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: looked at it. I was like, man, Palace one ten

534
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: at home against Burnley, And I know you said the

535
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 2: same thing. Right after we've finished recording our Sunday Champions

536
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 2: League preview and then I ran my numbers and I

537
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: was actually pretty close minus one seventeen for Palace, So

538
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 2: not a ton in it for me. I agree the

539
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 2: home splits are pretty wild. I think Burnley away from

540
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 2: home versus at home is a hugely different animal. Like

541
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 2: you mentioned, same thing with Crystal Palace. But again it's

542
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: the big question of whether Palace is a favorite, is

543
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 2: really worth backing? And there was positive regression coming for

544
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 2: this team, but did we just burn all of it

545
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: today against against Watford scoring four goals on zero point

546
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 2: eight xg and you know, they were not really that

547
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 2: good and all their shots went and sometimes that happens

548
00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: in soccer. But you know, now I'm like, oh, you

549
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: can't back them after that. Right from a regression point

550
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: of view, it's an interesting spot. But Burnley also getting

551
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: a huge home win. Now going on the road naturally

552
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 2: could be a little flat. I probably end up staying

553
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 2: away here, but I definitely lean toward Palace. I wish

554
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: Watford had won today, you know, that would have been

555
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: this would have been a hammer spot for as Yeah.

556
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 2: Now now it's like the number is kind of close,

557
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: and I you know, Palace again moves into the mid

558
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 2: table and It's like, okay, now, what you know, could

559
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 2: they keep doing you know, maybe converting at this rate

560
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: for a little while and going a little run. It

561
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me. But yeah, it's seems seems close for me.

562
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I still think it's a lot. Obviously, Maxwell

563
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 1: Cornet didn't play for Bernling today, which is obviously a

564
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 1: concern for them, so that obviously helps Crystal Palace. But

565
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: you know I do. I'm gonna trust my numbers here

566
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna play Palace Bainley because of those home

567
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: road splits. All right, let's move on. On Saturday morning,

568
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: at ten a m Eastern, Manchester United is hosting Watford

569
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 1: at Old Trafford in a huge revenge game. Manchester United

570
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 1: is sitting at minus two ninety five, Watford at eight

571
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 1: to one, with the draw at plus four fifty. Manchester

572
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 1: United coming off a one to one undeserved draw with

573
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 1: Athletico in the Champions League today after having to face

574
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 1: some difficult competition for the first time under Ralph Ragnik.

575
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: But this match here, you know, if it wasn't a

576
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: revenge spot, I think I would probably lean towards Watford.

577
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: They've obviously been better under Roy Hodgson. My numbers do

578
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 1: tell me that I lean towards Watford here, but since

579
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: it is a revenge spot, this is the match that

580
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,479
Speaker 1: got Olgany Solshark fired, I am going to end up

581
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 1: passing as obviously United has been playing a ton over

582
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 1: the last two weeks, so the spot is not great

583
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: for them. But I cannot back this Watford team right now,

584
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 1: even though they are due for some positiveggression after what

585
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: happened today. But ultimately I will be passing. Do you

586
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: have anything for United versus Watford?

587
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: I lean toward the team total over. I don't think Watford,

588
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: you know. I think there's a good chance United falls

589
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 2: into this trap that Roy Hodgson loves to set, where

590
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 2: he'll sit back four four two. He'll give you the ball,

591
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: He'll give you the ball in non dangerous areas. He'll

592
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,719
Speaker 2: let you take shots from twenty yards, but he'll never

593
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: let you truly break through. And that was a major

594
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: issue that United had in a years past. It was

595
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 2: less of an issue last year been less of an

596
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 2: issue since they added Bernaldo. They've had other issues that

597
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: have been bigger issues, like their transition defense and their

598
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 2: midfield has seemingly gotten worse. Watford could easily score on

599
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 2: the counter here, and I would not shock me in

600
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 2: the slightest if they did. And they're only minus one

601
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 2: fifteen to score, so that wouldn't shock me. That being

602
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: said this, I mean, the longer this game is zero zero,

603
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: the less and less Watford's going to attack. They it's

604
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: gonna sit. So it's tough. This is the kind of

605
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: game where I'll look to play live more than anything else,

606
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 2: probably because if you're watching the game and Watford is

607
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 2: really looking dangerous on the counter but they haven't quite

608
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 2: had one come off yet, good time to get on

609
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: the team total live plus. You might even get like

610
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: a plus one thirty one forty. As it gets later

611
00:28:58,400 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: in the game second half, you'd probably get like a

612
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 2: plus two one hundred, depending on how it plays out

613
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 2: pre match. I agree, I don't really want the plus

614
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: one and a half because I think United could go

615
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: off at any time very well could. They also could

616
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 2: be flat off this Champions League matchup, so there's a

617
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 2: lot that goes both ways. Countervailing in this match stylistically

618
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: and becom a number standpoint again Watford a little bit

619
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 2: of value, but don't really want to back them on

620
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: the spread when I can probably get them on the

621
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,480
Speaker 2: team total, and I do think they'll need a goal

622
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: to probably cover the spread, so I'm gonna end up

623
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: probably passing generally pregame, but look live potentially for a

624
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Watford team total.

625
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Manchester United is interesting. I'm going to tell

626
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 1: everybody right now, do not get fooled if man United

627
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 1: blows out Watford and say that they're back and that

628
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 1: route rightness figured everything out, because it's just not true.

629
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: They got smashed today in the first half by Athletico

630
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: in one moment of magic where Athletic Coo made a

631
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: defensive mistake and they were able to capitalize on it.

632
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: United coming up here, I'm going to read off their schedule.

633
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 2: Because it's Oh, it's a doozy.

634
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 1: It's a doozy. They got a Manchester derby at City,

635
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 1: then they go they play Toddenham at home.

636
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: What's that line going to be? Oh, my gosh, that's

637
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: the we're looking ahead on draft games.

638
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: That's the reverse fixture of that. That'll be a very

639
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: interesting match. If it's I mean, I mean they're probably

640
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 1: gonna lie in United. What plus one twenty would be

641
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: my guess or something I was talking.

642
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 2: About the I was talking about the Manchester Derby City.

643
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: Story with City minus five hundred.

644
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: Three ten, which I think I'm gonna be on United

645
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. Yeah, just just putting that

646
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: out there. I'm just just putting that out there as

647
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:27,360
Speaker 2: a potential look ahead. You know, we don't really do

648
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: look ahead too often, but let me see, let's see

649
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: if there's a plus one and a half right now

650
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 2: it's plus one and a half is minus one twenty

651
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 2: that might be something. We'll talk about that next week.

652
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll save it for next week. But then they

653
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: get if I play that, yeah, at home against Tottenham,

654
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: the reverse Champions League fixture, at home against Athletico at Liverpool,

655
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: and then at home against Leicester and then at Everton.

656
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: So it is, uh, it's a doozy for United and

657
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 1: even the rest of their schedule. They obviously get a

658
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 1: match against Norwich, then they gotta go to Arsenal, they

659
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: gotta go to Brighton, they gotta play Chelsea, they gotta

660
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: go then to Crystal Palace.

661
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 2: So they've played almost all the relegation teams already.

662
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well that's what I've been talking about for the last.

663
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: I don't know how many podcasts is that. You know, Hey,

664
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: United hasn't played anybody over alf r anting stretch. Well,

665
00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: now it's time to pay up and we'll see if

666
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 1: they're actually a good squads every day. Yeah, all right,

667
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: let's move on on Saturday. The Premier match on Saturday.

668
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: Michael's Everton Toffees posting League leaders Manchester City on Saturday

669
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: at twelve thirty pm Eastern Time. Everton is sitting at

670
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,760
Speaker 1: plus nine hundred. Manchester City is a minus three forty

671
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: road favorite, with the draw at plus four seventy five.

672
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: I am very happy to pass on this match. If

673
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: I were to play anything, I would probably take a

674
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: look at Everton. Obviously they've been way way better at

675
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: home than they've been on the road. They're obviously finally healthy.

676
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 1: But the Southampton match last week has really scared me

677
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: off of the Toffees potentially, you know, making some type

678
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: of resurgent run back here. They're probably not in the

679
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: relegation fight as it stands right now. Maybe. I don't know.

680
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: If Burnley and Watford keep winning then maybe, but I

681
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: mean this is probably gonna be you know, a city

682
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: one or two nothing win City obviously has Manchester United

683
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: coming up next weekend. Obviously, it's there's a lot of

684
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 1: time in between that, so I'm guessing Pep will be

685
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 1: playing his full squad with the Premier League title race

686
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: somewhat back on kind of. If City drops points here,

687
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: it gets a ton more interesting with Liverpool then having

688
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 1: two games in hand on them. But I am happy

689
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: to pass on this menumbers are pretty close to what

690
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: the market actually has. Do you have anything for Everton

691
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 1: versus Manchester City?

692
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 2: Now the easy pass here. Everton could show some life

693
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 2: and could score and it wouldn't shock me playing against

694
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 2: the City defense again. But you know Pep and them

695
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: are going to be very focused in this match. And

696
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: really last week felt more like Tottenham playing almost the

697
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 2: perfect attacking game with Caine, Son and Kulosowsky all playing

698
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: really ten out of ten games and combining perfectly a

699
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 2: few times to win that match. As much as it

700
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: was City having all these defensive breakdowns, you know they

701
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: still dominated possession, they still dominated chances. The first time

702
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 2: each teams played it was two point five to point two.

703
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 2: Everton had four shots, so that was that the Efty

704
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 2: had That was a long time ago, different manager but

705
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 2: the Everton counter attacking plan doesn't quite come off as well.

706
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: I don't think you know, we're playing a team like City,

707
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna pass here and hopefully City runs it

708
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 2: up and we get a better number on United next week.

709
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: I don't know about that. Oh yes, I don't know.

710
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 1: It's gonna take a ton for me to play United

711
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: next week. I'm very if you can't tell the last

712
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 1: few podcasts, I'm very, very against Manchester United as a

713
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 1: current club because I do not think they're a good

714
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 1: club and they're still in the top four battle, which

715
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 1: I don't think is they should be. But we'll see.

716
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 2: We're gonna find out we're gonna I mean, I'm not

717
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: think they're gonna win next week, but it could be interesting.

718
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: We'll see. There is one loan Sunday match. West Ham

719
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: is hosting Wolves at the Olympics Stadium. West Ham is

720
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,480
Speaker 1: a plus one ten home favorite. Wolves is sitting at

721
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: plus two to seventy five with the draw plus two

722
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 1: thirty five. We are obviously taping this on Wednesday night

723
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: before the Arsenal Wolves match. I'll be honest, I am

724
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: very very happy to pass on this. I'm gonna raise

725
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: my hand and say that I have given up on

726
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 1: trying to continue to say that west Ham is a

727
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: top four contender. They're obviously still top seven team in

728
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 1: the Premier League, but I can't figure them out. And

729
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: another team I can't figure out is Wolves unless just

730
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 1: taking their overs. One thing obviously is before the Arsenal

731
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: Wolves match. But I did mention on the last podcast

732
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 1: Wolves when they have to play against teams above them

733
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: in the table, which west Ham goes into this category,

734
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 1: their matches are averaging around two point seven expected goals,

735
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: so you could we could see Wolves overs here come

736
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: to fruition maybe two matches in a row. But for

737
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: two teams that I cannot figure out continually are losing

738
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: money on I am very very happy to pass. Do

739
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 1: you have anything for west Ham versus Wolves?

740
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 2: Well, you know I said it last week. I've said

741
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,439
Speaker 2: it every week on this podcast since the podcast turned

742
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,839
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty two Wolves overs. No, I don't really

743
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 2: have a strong take care I don't like beat the team.

744
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: I think Wolves. They are minus point three p ninety

745
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 2: expected goal difference. They're only six points off with two

746
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 2: games in hand of fourth. They are not in the

747
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: top four race. As far as I'm concerned, I don't

748
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 2: care what the table says. They will not keep it up,

749
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 2: and you mentioned it, I mean the defense Luckbox is insane.

750
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 2: They got outplayed for the larger of the Lester match.

751
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: They did go over, but it wasn't because their defense

752
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: finally regressed, which will happen, but at some point it

753
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: will regress, and I just don't know if west Ham's

754
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 2: the team to take advantage of it. This could be

755
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: the west Ham get right spot, but their attack has

756
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 2: been so bad. Another lackluster showing against Newcastle, completely dead

757
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 2: second half, couldn't create a damn chance of anything, and

758
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,280
Speaker 2: they were playing to teams who are worse defensively than Wolves.

759
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: And yes, Wolves are due for regression, but they're still

760
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: above average defense and so I really don't have a

761
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 2: strong opinion here. I actually would probably lean toward west

762
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: Ham if I had to play it. But we'll see

763
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 2: what happens on Thursday with the Arsenal Wolves match. Hopefully

764
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 2: Arsenal puts seven past them and then I don't have

765
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 2: to don't have to bet the the west Ham or

766
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 2: don't have to bet you know, Wolves over on Sunday.

767
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 2: But I think those would be the looks if I

768
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 2: had to play it.

769
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: Yes, let's hope Arsenal put seven pass that'd be awesome.

770
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Wolves win eight to seven. Wolves overs.

771
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: Scre like five goals from outside the box. But that's okay.

772
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 1: All right. Let's move on out of England to the

773
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: rest of Europe. Let's start in Germany. What is your

774
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 1: best bet for the Bundesliga this weekend?

775
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's glade Bach Wolfsburg, both teams to score and

776
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: over two and a half goals parlate and even money.

777
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 2: Two of the teams in the league who are an

778
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: absolute disaster. I mean, god by conceding six to Dortmund.

779
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 2: You know, it was a pretty competitive first half. God

780
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 2: Bock got him behind twice. They didn't score either of them.

781
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 2: Of course, they hit the post down two nil, and

782
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 2: then Dortmund hits the post and it goes in to

783
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 2: go up three. And then they quit, I mean quit quit,

784
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: And there's I mean, are they still playing for Addie

785
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 2: Huter defensively would suggest no. They're conceding two goals a

786
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: match in the Bundesliga. Since December has begun, they've been

787
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 2: one of the three worst defenses in the Bundesliga. They're

788
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: a relegation defense and they have so much talent to

789
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 2: be that bad. The fullbacks have been poor, Ginter looking

790
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 2: to get his big move, poor Elvedy a mess, can't

791
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 2: defense cent pieces, Somers regressed. I mean, everything's wrong with

792
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 2: this team defensively. With that being said, the attack is

793
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 2: actually still fine. They're just not converting chances and the

794
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 2: same as year for Wolfsburg. These are the two biggest

795
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 2: positive attacking regression candidates in the entire league. Right now.

796
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 2: Neither team has taken any chance for months. Wolfsburg had

797
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 2: a brief spell where they started to take them. They

798
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,399
Speaker 2: played well against Holfenheim last weekend, went up one nil,

799
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: blew it lost to one. So I think this Wolfsburg

800
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 2: attack is going to start to figure some things out.

801
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 2: I know that Vegas has gone, but they still have

802
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 2: other guys who are fine and who can pick up

803
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 2: the slack that they lose with his shots disappearing and

804
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 2: mcglod box same thing. I mean, it's time after time

805
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: they get these chances in behind, and Below has missed

806
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 2: a bunch. Hoffman missed a couple easy chances, and those

807
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 2: chances are going to start to go in. So I

808
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 2: think between the defenses not being quite as good as

809
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 2: they should be, and both attacks having positive regression coming.

810
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be an open game to

811
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 2: one type game. I actually also leaned toward Wolfsburg. It's

812
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: gotten that bad for glad back that minus one hundred

813
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: at home isn't good enough for me to play them

814
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 2: against Wolfsburg. But yeah, over two and a half and

815
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 2: both teams to score.

816
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm leaning towards Wolfsburg too, but we'll get to

817
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 1: that in the later segment in the podcast. I like

818
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,840
Speaker 1: Bocum RBI Liipsig over three goals at plus one point fifteen.

819
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 1: Bocum is pretty fraudulent team to be sitting in eleventh

820
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 1: place in the table for the season. They have a

821
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: minus ten point one expect a gold of French will on.

822
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 1: Their defense has been quite terrible. They're allowing one point

823
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,480
Speaker 1: six to two expected goals per match, but it gets

824
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 1: really bad when they have to face teams above them

825
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,919
Speaker 1: in the table. In twelve matches against the top ten

826
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: teams in Germany, Bokum is allowing two point zero three

827
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,399
Speaker 1: x g per match, which includes a three zero loss

828
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,840
Speaker 1: to RB Leipsig where Leipzig created two point five expected

829
00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 1: goals on them back in October. Bokum. The problem they

830
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: keep running into is and for a lot of these

831
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,399
Speaker 1: smaller size is that they are allowing far too many

832
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 1: big scoring chances forty four in twenty three matches. That's

833
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 1: a problem against Arby Leipzig, who has created the second

834
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 1: most big scoring chances in the Bundesliga. Rby Leipzig. Their

835
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: offensive numbers are obviously very impressive, but a lot of

836
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: it is because they're just routing lesser competition in the Bundesliga.

837
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 1: Against the bottom nine defenses. In terms of expected goals

838
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: allowed per match, which includes Bochum, Rby Leipzig has scored

839
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 1: thirty five goals off of twenty nine point four expected

840
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 1: goals in only twelve matches. That's insane, that's really it's

841
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 1: really really impressive, so they should be able to at

842
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: least put two in the back of the net here.

843
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,520
Speaker 1: Bokum offensively hasn't been that they're out, averaging on one

844
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: point two x g per match, but they've been on

845
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: a little bit we can call it a little bit

846
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 1: fired lately. Seven point eight expected goals in their last

847
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 1: five matches is pretty good. Arby Leipzig defensively has been

848
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 1: shaky all season long, especially allowing big scoring chances. They've

849
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: conceded the sixth most in the Bundesliga under Tedesco. There

850
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 1: have been some matches where it's looked a little shaky,

851
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 1: some matches where they've looked impressive. It's just kind of

852
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 1: all over the map right now. For arby Leipsig, I

853
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 1: have around three point five goals projected for this match,

854
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: so I love the value on over three goals at

855
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. All right, let's move on to your

856
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 1: home country, Italy. What do you have for us in

857
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: the wonderful League of Syria A.

858
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: Italy was much nicer to be last weekend, Torino and

859
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 2: Bologna coming home a little under in the Atalanta game

860
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: as well, So hopefully we're getting some positive regression for

861
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,839
Speaker 2: me in Italy and hopefully we get some unders as well,

862
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 2: because we're due for a lot of those still. Even

863
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:58,319
Speaker 2: after a good weekend of unders in Italia, there's no

864
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: penal penalty is really which means which means by the way,

865
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 2: this weekend the Italians are calling it in to all

866
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 2: the refs saying, look, we got to get more goals.

867
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: We can't get goals nless we get penalties, so let's

868
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: bratch it up the penalties. Hopefully Genowa gets a penalty

869
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: on Friday at home playing against Inter Milan. Look, this

870
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 2: attack stinks. I mean, they're really bad, but they're one

871
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 2: of the bigger positive aggression candidates in all of Italy

872
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 2: as a whole, and they've only scored about twenty one

873
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: goals from twenty six expected, so running well behind their numbers.

874
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: And generally speaking, this Inter defense has some cracks and

875
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 2: I expect them to win this match comfortably. But I

876
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 2: do think that Genowa will be able to get on

877
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 2: the board. It's one of those island Friday matches as

878
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: well as Milan Udernesi, which it's going to take every

879
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 2: bone in my body to not play Uderinaesy plus one.

880
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 2: But that's another look that I have for Friday. But

881
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 2: that being said, Genowa team total over. I think they'll

882
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,720
Speaker 2: get on the board here. Enters defense has run really

883
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 2: hot for about two months and they did concede two

884
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: to to Swallow in a weird loss last week. I

885
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: expect them to bounce back. They praided over three and

886
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: a half expected, so I don't want to play in

887
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 2: front of the attacking truck that is inter Milan. But

888
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 2: I do think on the road they'll can sede here.

889
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: So I'm going to Ghenawa team total over minus one

890
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 2: twenty team total over half.

891
00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 1: All right, I am going to you mentioned it. I'm

892
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 1: gonna go with an under in Syria and this is

893
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: a hold on to your seats kind of under. Lazio

894
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: Napoli under two and a half goals at minus one fifteen.

895
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: It's a good time to try and bet on some

896
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 1: Lazzio offensive regression. They're one of the biggest over performers

897
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 1: offensively across Europe's top five leagues. They have scored fifty

898
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: three goals off of thirty six point nine expected goals.

899
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: That is insane, and regression is going to come for

900
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,920
Speaker 1: them at some point in these final thirteen matches, I hope. Well,

901
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 1: now they have to face pretty much one of the

902
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 1: best defenses in all of Europe. Napoli has only allowed

903
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 1: eighteen goals in Syria a off of nineteen expected goals

904
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 1: in twenty six matches, so it is absolutely this defense

905
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: is absolutely legit. The last time these two teams met,

906
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 1: Napoli destroyed for nothing. But there actually weren't very many

907
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 1: high quality chances in the match. Napoli scored four goals

908
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: off of one point two expected goals, but most importantly,

909
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,040
Speaker 1: they held sixty two percent possession and held Loatzio to

910
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 1: only eight shots and point four expected goals. If Napoli

911
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 1: is able to control a large share of the possession,

912
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,240
Speaker 1: the pace of this match is going to be incredibly slow.

913
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,240
Speaker 1: Napoli leads siri I in sequence time, passes per sequence

914
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: and build up attacks per opta, so it's no surprise

915
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: that their matches are only averaging two point thirty seven

916
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 1: expected goals. Additionally, both these teams that are playing in

917
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,960
Speaker 1: the Europa League knockout playoff on Thursday, so there could

918
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: be some tired legs coming into this match. I only

919
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 1: have a little over two goals projected for this match,

920
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 1: so I love the price in nunder two and a

921
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 1: half goals at minus one point fifteen, the value is there.

922
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 1: Let's just hope the regression comes all right, let's move

923
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 1: on to Spain. What do you have for us in

924
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: La Liga this weekend? Yeah?

925
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 2: I was pretty stunned by this price. I bet it

926
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: as soon as it opened. Barcelona and Bill Bobo teams

927
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 2: to score is minus one ten. Barcelona the attack has

928
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 2: made leaps and strides forward. They're clearly a pretty improved

929
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:12,040
Speaker 2: attacking unit. The Chavi system has really made them a

930
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 2: lot better going forward. They're creating a ton of chances,

931
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 2: they're converting at a better rate. Imagine that, and they're

932
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: a bet on team one percent. But there's still defensive issues,

933
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 2: and there are absolutely issues against teams who have pace,

934
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:27,959
Speaker 2: against teams who are effective on the counter. And Bill

935
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 2: Boo is happy to play that way. And so I

936
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: took both teams to score minus one ten. I projected

937
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five. So I'm way above the market here,

938
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 2: which probably is a red flag, But overall, I'm happy

939
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 2: to play this number. And I do think Barcia will win,

940
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 2: probably two three to one. But I think Bill Boo,

941
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: I mean, we've talked about their regression for months and

942
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 2: they've been scoring a lot of goals. The only problem

943
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 2: the scary part, both teams did just score four goals

944
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 2: their last match. Always a red flag to keep betting

945
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 2: them to keep scoring when they just went off. But

946
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:58,880
Speaker 2: I'm okay with it for here. I think it's a

947
00:44:58,880 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 2: good spot.

948
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: All right. I'm gonna go I'm gonna do something I

949
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 1: very very rarely do. I don't think I've done it

950
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: on this podcast or even this entire year. I'm going

951
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: to bet a draw in Gaitafe versus Alevas. And the

952
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: reason I rarely do this is, if you've read my

953
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: article of how my model pretty much works, I use

954
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: poison distribution, when when you use that, very rarely does

955
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 1: the chance of a draw have any value based on

956
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 1: what the books are offering. So I'm gonna get a

957
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,240
Speaker 1: little nerdy. I'm gonna do some math here for everybody,

958
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 1: So if you want to fall asleep, go ahead. So

959
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 1: the chance of these two teams drawing I've projected at

960
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 1: plus one point eighty three, which is a thirty five

961
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 1: point thirty nine implied odds, where the current price of

962
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five is thirty point seven seven percent.

963
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: So I'm showing four point sixty two percent value. So

964
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 1: that's just a little inside look at how not only

965
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 1: betting the draw, but how I go about pretty much

966
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 1: any type of bet that I'm making throughout soccer, trying

967
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: to get three and a half percent value. The reason

968
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:54,799
Speaker 1: that I'm showing value on this, and it's kind of

969
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 1: it was a little bit shocking that I actually was

970
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 1: showing value on a draw like this is these are

971
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: two of three offenses in Spain. Katafe is only averaging

972
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 1: point seven to eight expected goals per match. That's not

973
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 1: only the lowest average in Spain, that's the lowest average

974
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 1: among anybody in Europe's top five leagues, and Alabas is

975
00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 1: only averaging point ninety six expected goals per match. Now,

976
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 1: Katafe is a very good defensive team that typically plays

977
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: very very low event type matches because they're very well

978
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: organized in their five to three to two system. So

979
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: far this season, when playing out of the five to

980
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: three to two, they're averaging point nine x g per

981
00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: ninety minutes, but they're only allowing one point zero three

982
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,359
Speaker 1: x cheaper ninety minutes, so the formation is highly susceptible

983
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: to draws. Alabase is a struggling defense, but they are

984
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 1: due for a little bit of positive aggression. They've allowed

985
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,960
Speaker 1: forty two goals off of around thirty six expected Also,

986
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 1: both clubs are only averaging a little over forty one

987
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 1: percent possession in La Liga matches to neither I really

988
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: used to having a majority of the ball, so I

989
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: think it's a good price and a good spot for

990
00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:58,240
Speaker 1: a draw between Gatafe and Alavese at plus two twenty five.

991
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to France League one. Do

992
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:05,800
Speaker 1: you have anything for us in France this weekend?

993
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: And I didn't bet Claremont on foot, but they won,

994
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 2: which was a shame. So I'm not gonna bet this again.

995
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,720
Speaker 2: But I like METS drawn a bet at home against

996
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 2: Nutts nots very overperforming. I know METS is really really

997
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 2: really bad or bad plus one ten pick drawn a

998
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 2: bet at home against the team that's overperforming their numbers

999
00:47:20,760 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: do for regression. Just had the biggest win of the

1000
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 2: year beating PSG at home in probably a great spot.

1001
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 2: You know, after the PSG wins in the Champions League,

1002
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 2: then they've already wrapped up League On, they come up flat,

1003
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:32,760
Speaker 2: Nons beats them. They can see three and a half

1004
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,800
Speaker 2: expected goals in the victory. You don't see that too often.

1005
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: So pretty fortunate to win that one overall. And now

1006
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 2: they're going on the road against the relegation side again.

1007
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 2: Elean not a play for me, but that's my pick

1008
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 2: if I had to bet it. I don't bet League

1009
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 2: On too often. So I'll leave that to you as

1010
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 2: the foremost authority on French football.

1011
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I do have a pick in leg On,

1012
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 1: like I do every single weekend. Monico STD debreems under

1013
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 1: two and a half goals at minus one ten. Monico

1014
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: has had a very very interesting season. They're currently sitting

1015
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 1: in sixth place with around a plus ten expect a

1016
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:06,919
Speaker 1: goal differential, which is a little bit below where you'd

1017
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: expect a team of this kind of talent. They've already

1018
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: sacked their manager in Nico Kovac and replaced him with

1019
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:18,120
Speaker 1: Club Bruges manager Felipe Clement. However, this is a very

1020
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 1: elite defensive team. They're only allowing point eighty four non

1021
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals for match, which leads League one. The

1022
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: main reason for that is because first, they don't allow

1023
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,560
Speaker 1: a lot of big scoring chances, only nineteen conceded all

1024
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: season long, and they're the number one pressing team in

1025
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 1: France bypasses for defensive action. That's great, but it's also

1026
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: kind of concerning because they aren't turning opponents over at

1027
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 1: a high level in their own end. For example, Monico

1028
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: has two hundred and eight high turnovers on the season,

1029
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: which is around, you know, middle of the pack in France.

1030
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 1: They only have eighteen shots off of those turnovers, which

1031
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 1: is the lowest amount in France, so that is quite

1032
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,839
Speaker 1: concerning to me. Stod Doreens is a pathetic offense, which

1033
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:00,240
Speaker 1: I have been saying for pretty much in day one.

1034
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,279
Speaker 1: They're bottom five and non penalty expected goals for match

1035
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: shots per ninety big scoring chances. They're also the worst

1036
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: team in France against pressure, which would be a problem

1037
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 1: against Monaco if they were able to do anything with

1038
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 1: their turnovers. But here's where I'll say I'm wrong. Reems

1039
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 1: is a rock solid defense. Their top five in league

1040
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,960
Speaker 1: gun and non penalty expected goals allowed. They've only allowed

1041
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: two big scoring chances in their last eight matches. Monaco

1042
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 1: does have leguns leading goal scorer ben Yetta, who has

1043
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 1: fourteen goals and twenty four appearances, but the rest of

1044
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,479
Speaker 1: the offense is pretty poor. Monico only averaging one point

1045
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 1: two non penalty expected goals for match, which is ninth

1046
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: in league on so I think this is going to

1047
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:39,839
Speaker 1: be a pretty low event match. I only have around

1048
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:42,400
Speaker 1: one point nine goals projected, so I love the price

1049
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 1: on under two and a half goals at minus one ten.

1050
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to our favorite segment of

1051
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 1: the podcast, our favorite underdogs of the weekend. This is

1052
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 1: the part of the podcast where we will warn you

1053
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 1: that to be careful with these These teams are underdogs

1054
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: for a reason. The reason we are a bet because

1055
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 1: we believe that these teams have a better chance of

1056
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 1: winning than what the market is providing, but they do

1057
00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: have a low percentage of winning. So, Anthony, what is

1058
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:11,880
Speaker 1: your favorite underdog this week?

1059
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 2: Yeah? Kicking myself and I having the eleven to one

1060
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,840
Speaker 2: on Tottenham last week that was disappointing. We should have

1061
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: said that on the pod, But I'm going with Hair

1062
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 2: to Berlin plus four seventy five on the road against Freiburg.

1063
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 2: I'm just not quite buying into this Freiburg team, who

1064
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:30,359
Speaker 2: has overperformed for the vast majority of this entire season.

1065
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 2: When you look at their numbers and the fact that

1066
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 2: they have started to show some cracks recently. They haven't

1067
00:50:35,760 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 2: been quite as good in the last say three or

1068
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 2: four matches, dating back to the beatdown they took to

1069
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: Dortmund in late January, they haven't quite been firing and overall,

1070
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 2: you know, a plus four expected goal difference. They're slightly

1071
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 2: above average Bundesliga team, but you know, they get a

1072
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 2: fortunate draw with minds after scoring late, a pretty fortunate

1073
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 2: win against Osburg. Overall they were the better side, but

1074
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 2: Osburg were in it for large jutches and there was

1075
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 2: a bunch of chances that Osburg had on the counter

1076
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 2: and really I thought, you know, could have taken advantage

1077
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 2: of the first half and then they fell apart as

1078
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: Osburg does. But overall, just not quite buying this Friedburg team.

1079
00:51:12,080 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: And Herta is a pretty big club and they are

1080
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 2: minus point seven x g P ninety and we're pretty

1081
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 2: deep into the season now they're in the relegation scrap

1082
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 2: and they're one of the favorites to go down, and

1083
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 2: I'm banking on eventually we're seeing some kind of life

1084
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 2: from this team, and at four point seven, you know,

1085
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: to one, I'm willing to fire on them even on

1086
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 2: the road to pull us off here.

1087
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 1: All right, I'm a stay in Germany. And we mentioned

1088
00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 1: it before. I like Wolfsburg plus two seventy five on

1089
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 1: the road at Claudbach. You mentioned that this Glodbach defense

1090
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: is bad, so essentially the real defensive questions I think

1091
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 1: started when they lost four to one to Cologne on

1092
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,719
Speaker 1: November twenty seventh. Since then, they've conceded twenty four point

1093
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 1: four expected goals in eleven matches, and they've only held

1094
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 1: their opponents under one expected goal one time in those

1095
00:51:56,680 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 1: eleven matches, and now it's against Armenia BA Film. Wolfsburg

1096
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 1: has been improving offensively twelve point three expected goals in

1097
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:05,919
Speaker 1: the last nine matches. They're up to eleventh in non

1098
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals. So I think this is a situation

1099
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:14,200
Speaker 1: that Glodbok is a tad over valued, especially even money,

1100
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 1: given how bad their defense has been. I make this

1101
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 1: match pretty close to a pick'm so I'm happy to

1102
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 1: take Wolfsburg at plus two seventy five.

1103
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 2: Imagine us saying right now in February that thirteenth placed

1104
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:29,240
Speaker 2: Glodbok is overvalued. It's just absurd, absurd.

1105
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 1: I know it's it's it's gotten bad for them. But

1106
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 1: of course they had one good performance against Bayern Munich,

1107
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 1: but I'm still not mad. I'm still not mad about it,

1108
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: but it happened, and three.

1109
00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 2: Good performances against Byer Munich they won twice and drew once.

1110
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:47,439
Speaker 1: For the record. Yeah, whatever, Also, yes, all right, let's

1111
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 1: move on to the last segment of the podcast, Our

1112
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: favorite Premier League bets of the weekend. Where are you

1113
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,280
Speaker 1: taking us for your best bet in England?

1114
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 2: Brentford draw no bet minus one twenty five at home

1115
00:52:59,200 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: against newcast So the Bees have lost two and drawn

1116
00:53:03,080 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 2: one in their last three home matches, but they've actually

1117
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 2: won the expected goals battle in all three of those matches.

1118
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 2: One was very close with United but overall outplayed Wolves,

1119
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 2: lost to one, outplayed Crystal Palace and drew nil nil.

1120
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 2: This team has been much better at home than they've

1121
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 2: been on the road this season, and I understand they

1122
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: have not won any of their last seven matches in

1123
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: the prem overall. But we're buying low on Brentford. We're

1124
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: selling high on a Newcastle team that, to their credit,

1125
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 2: has played like an average Premier League team over the

1126
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: last month. But they're a little bit shorthanded. They're going

1127
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 2: on the road and Brentford is actually now just as

1128
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:37,319
Speaker 2: desperate as Newcastle needing these points. Is they above the

1129
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 2: relegation scrap? I think they will, and I think they're

1130
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 2: more likely to win it than not minus one twenty

1131
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:42,520
Speaker 2: five draw no bet.

1132
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go Crystal Palace minus one ten

1133
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 1: at home against Burnley. This number is two low for

1134
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:50,120
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, especially being at home. We're kind of in

1135
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:51,720
Speaker 1: a little bit of a cell high spot with Burnley

1136
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,520
Speaker 1: after winning two straight matches. The big reason why I

1137
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 1: love Crystal Palace the home road splits for both these

1138
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 1: teams are just drastic. Crystal Palace at home plus seven

1139
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 1: point seven expected gold differential well Burnley on the road

1140
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 1: minus ten point five expected gold differential. These two teams

1141
00:54:07,360 --> 00:54:09,879
Speaker 1: met earlier this season in a chaotic three to three draw,

1142
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 1: but Crystal Palace was by far the better side at

1143
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 1: Turf more one unexpected goals two point zero to one

1144
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 1: point three, held sixty one percent possession, more touches in

1145
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:21,839
Speaker 1: the penalty area, more shock creating actions. This is a

1146
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 1: much better well rounded team. Burnley could be without one

1147
00:54:24,760 --> 00:54:26,960
Speaker 1: of their best attackers, Maxwell Corney for this one, who

1148
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:30,239
Speaker 1: didn't play against Tottenham on Wednesday. So I think it's

1149
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: a good spot for the Eagles, especially at a low

1150
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,720
Speaker 1: price of minus one ten to grab all three points.

1151
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for another episode of Wonder Goal.

1152
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening. Make sure to like and

1153
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast, leave us a five star review

1154
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 1: if you can, it'll help us out a lot. We'll

1155
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:48,959
Speaker 1: be back on next Thursday. We'll be taking the week

1156
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: off as not much is happening in the midweek next week.

1157
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 1: We'll be back next Thursday morning to break down the

1158
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 1: entire weekend slate across Europe. So for Anthony and myself,

1159
00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 1: thank you once again for listening, and good luck on

1160
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 1: your wagers this weekend.