WEBVTT - Here's Why Getting US Election Results Is So Complicated

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Stephen Carol and this is Here's Why, where we

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<v Speaker 2>take one news story and explain it in just a

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<v Speaker 2>few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg. This election

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<v Speaker 2>season in the US, there's one question that keeps coming up,

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<v Speaker 2>and it's not who's going to win, but how long

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<v Speaker 2>will it take to get a result.

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<v Speaker 1>There are a lot of concerns on Wall Street that

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<v Speaker 1>we could go through several days of uncertainty, not unlike

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<v Speaker 1>four years ago. And we know how much the markets

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<v Speaker 1>love that.

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<v Speaker 2>You're looking at a coin flip election and everyone wants

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<v Speaker 2>to know who gets it if it lands on its edge.

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<v Speaker 2>All this weight, we want the result we want to

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<v Speaker 2>see after this really chaotic, tumultuous campaign and outcome. In reality,

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<v Speaker 2>there are fifty one different elections, one in each state

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<v Speaker 2>and in the District of Columbia. Each one follows its

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<v Speaker 2>own rules on where, when, and how ballots are cast,

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<v Speaker 2>which can affect when votes are counted and results are known.

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<v Speaker 2>In twenty twenty, it took almost four days to find

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<v Speaker 2>out who's been elected president. In two thousand, the decision

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<v Speaker 2>from the Supreme Court didn't come until mid December. So

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<v Speaker 2>here's why getting US election results is so complicated. Megan Crane,

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<v Speaker 2>who's an editor in our Washington bureau, joins us now

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<v Speaker 2>for more. Megan, great to talk to you. So different

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<v Speaker 2>states have these different rules for the elections. How much

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<v Speaker 2>divergence is there when it comes to counting.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say there's fifty different ways of doing it

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<v Speaker 1>really between the fifty states. Some count their ballots as

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<v Speaker 1>they come in early, Some allow for ballots to come

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<v Speaker 1>in after election day, and some don't. Some allow people

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<v Speaker 1>to come in and do what's called curing of their ballots.

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<v Speaker 1>We can talk about that more for quite some time,

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<v Speaker 1>and many don't, so it just really is up to

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<v Speaker 1>each and every state.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's pretty different than depending on where you are

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<v Speaker 2>talking about curing of balance. How does that work?

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<v Speaker 1>A cured ballot is basically if you send in a

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<v Speaker 1>mail ballot or an absentee ballot. Sometimes they don't get

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<v Speaker 1>counted for a variety of reasons. Someone forgets to sign

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<v Speaker 1>the envelope they come in, somebody doesn't get the right postmark,

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<v Speaker 1>or for whatever reason they're not counted. You can actually

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<v Speaker 1>track that online. I voted early and I was able

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<v Speaker 1>to look and see that they had my ballot and

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<v Speaker 1>it had been noted. So you can look at that

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<v Speaker 1>and say, oh, I sent in my absentee belt, but

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<v Speaker 1>they never got it or they rejected it for some reason.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you can go in in most jurisdictions and

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<v Speaker 1>say I want to do a new one and that

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<v Speaker 1>will then count instead of the previous ballot. The reason

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<v Speaker 1>that really impacts counting is, for example, some states have

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<v Speaker 1>like days after the election where they allow people to

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<v Speaker 1>do that. North Carolina is until November fourteenth, where someone

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<v Speaker 1>can come in and check their ballot make sure it

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<v Speaker 1>was counted. You can't really like change your vote, but

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<v Speaker 1>you can make sure that the ballot that you sent

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<v Speaker 1>was counted. You know. If we're down to the wire

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<v Speaker 1>and North Carolina is as close as everyone says it

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<v Speaker 1>might be, that's what several days for us to be

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<v Speaker 1>even waiting until they can decide they have their last ballots.

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<v Speaker 2>And that touches on the really key part that mail

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<v Speaker 2>in ballots play in this election. And that's something that's

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<v Speaker 2>changed over time as well.

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<v Speaker 1>It has. Yeah, mail in ballots are new ish, I

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't say they're a new phenomenon. And out West largely

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<v Speaker 1>where they have really a history of clean elections is

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<v Speaker 1>probably where that comes from. Like an Oregon, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>there's only mail in ballots. There's one like very rural

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<v Speaker 1>county where they still have polling places, but it's quite unusual.

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<v Speaker 1>Washington State is almost exclusively mail in ballots. Arizona has

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<v Speaker 1>a number of mail in ballots. People have that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of tradition and expectation there. In other places it wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>so common. And then, of course in twenty twenty we

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<v Speaker 1>were in the middle of COVID and they change the

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<v Speaker 1>rules in a lot of places making it easier to

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<v Speaker 1>vote by mail or drop off your ballot off hours

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<v Speaker 1>to keep crowds down and things like that, And so

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<v Speaker 1>we really don't have that much to compare it to

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<v Speaker 1>historically speaking, because those were new in twenty twenty, and

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<v Speaker 1>then people got used to it, right, so then they

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<v Speaker 1>expected to be able to keep doing that. In some places.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a huge turnout of early vote this year,

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<v Speaker 1>much more so than expected.

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<v Speaker 2>I think back in the last election, counting of the

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<v Speaker 2>mail in ballots was one of the things that took

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<v Speaker 2>so long in Pennsylvania for them to be able to

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<v Speaker 2>declare a result how much has changed in that process

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<v Speaker 2>since the last election, Right.

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<v Speaker 1>So, Pennsylvania's process has been standardized in this election and

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<v Speaker 1>is actually expected to be quite slow. They made a

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<v Speaker 1>rule that they cannot even open the envelopes of mail

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<v Speaker 1>in ballots until seven AM on election day, So that

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<v Speaker 1>means they can't you get them ready, sort of verify

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<v Speaker 1>the signatures, flatten them so they can go through the machines,

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<v Speaker 1>all that sort of stuff that would speed up that process.

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<v Speaker 1>They cannot do that until the morning of election day.

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<v Speaker 1>They cannot start counting those votes until eight PM on

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<v Speaker 1>election day. So if they're all prepped and ready, I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose that process could go pretty quickly through the machines.

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<v Speaker 1>But that does make sort of a big open question

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<v Speaker 1>as to what will happen this year as far as

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<v Speaker 1>how long it takes to count in Pennsylvania, especially considering

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<v Speaker 1>that it's expected to be so close.

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<v Speaker 2>What are the other things that can make counting some

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<v Speaker 2>of these votes quite complicated? Is the fact that you

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<v Speaker 2>have so many races on the same ballot, and in

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<v Speaker 2>some places there are other voting initiatives that are happening

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<v Speaker 2>on election day as well. How does that affect the

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<v Speaker 2>overall process of counting the results.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure what counting necessarily gets delayed by that,

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<v Speaker 1>but certainly like verification of the results gets complicated when

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<v Speaker 1>you have a lot of vote splitting, for example, and

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<v Speaker 1>the results don't really seem logical to an outside observer,

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<v Speaker 1>Say the top of the ticket goes heavily to one

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<v Speaker 1>party and everybody else goes heavily to a different party.

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<v Speaker 1>That can sort of raise questions about, you know, how

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<v Speaker 1>things work. There's also questions about like long lines on

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<v Speaker 1>election day, and then the rules I think in every

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<v Speaker 1>jurisdiction is that if you're in line when the polls close,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to be allowed to vote. Well, if the

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<v Speaker 1>lines are really that can be hours before the polls close,

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<v Speaker 1>And if the rules in that particular state are that

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<v Speaker 1>they can't count the votes until the polls close, you're

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<v Speaker 1>pushing things back by hours and hours.

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<v Speaker 2>Is it just a feeling or is the wait for

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<v Speaker 2>results actually getting longer from election to election.

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<v Speaker 1>I think on the presidential level it's not necessarily getting longer.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, we didn't have a result in two thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>which was, you know, twenty four years ago, until December.

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<v Speaker 1>That result came after a long court fight, but we did,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact have those results pretty quickly. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>results have actually started to come faster in some ways

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<v Speaker 1>because we have all these mechanical ways to count votes,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, if you're looking at a long historical trend,

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<v Speaker 1>but the country is so divided and the process is

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<v Speaker 1>so meticulous that it does feel I think it feels

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<v Speaker 1>like it's taking longer, partly because we want immediate answers,

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<v Speaker 1>and also because the stakes are so high and people

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<v Speaker 1>just feel so entrenched and everybody wants to get it right,

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<v Speaker 1>and it feels like it takes weeks longer. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it took several days last cycle, but before that, it didn't. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a winner pretty much the night of election

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<v Speaker 1>night on twenty sixteen. Hillary Clinton didn't concede, but he

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<v Speaker 1>had won that night. We knew that by then that

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<v Speaker 1>was true. In twenty twelve was maybe one day, if

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying to remember exactly. Two thousand and eight we

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<v Speaker 1>knew on election night. So you know, it's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>hard to.

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<v Speaker 2>Say when we just have shorter our attentionspons, and that's

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<v Speaker 2>why it might feel like, Yeah, I think.

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<v Speaker 1>That might be some of it. Yeah, we sort of

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<v Speaker 1>expect an immediate result. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>In advance of this election, we've been talking about both

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<v Speaker 2>campaigns preparing lawyers in case of legal challenges. What should

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<v Speaker 2>we be thinking about in terms of what challenges might

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<v Speaker 2>delay a result.

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<v Speaker 1>When you're thinking about delaying a result like an actual

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<v Speaker 1>sort of inauguration, what would be the most interesting are

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<v Speaker 1>the lawsuits that are basically fighting each county or each

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<v Speaker 1>state's ability to certify their count. You know, we all

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<v Speaker 1>learned a lot about that in the last process, about

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<v Speaker 1>how certification works. You never get a perfect count a

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<v Speaker 1>perfect there is no perfect process. There has to be

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<v Speaker 1>some official system in which you say, okay, we're done now,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the time. We have done enough counting, enough

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<v Speaker 1>looking through this to decide that this is our result.

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<v Speaker 1>And there will be legal challenges to that, probably from

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<v Speaker 1>both sides. Those people who make those decisions are often partisan.

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<v Speaker 1>They're elected as partisans to nonpartisan rules. It can be

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<v Speaker 1>quite difficult to reach a consensus.

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<v Speaker 2>Briefly, Megan, has anyone ever thought about harmonizing this process

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<v Speaker 2>across the US to perhaps fed it up. Oh, people think.

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<v Speaker 1>About that a lot. But I would say if you

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<v Speaker 1>really talk to election experts, the messiness of our process

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<v Speaker 1>is in some ways its genius in that it is,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, some would say, impossible to steal a United

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<v Speaker 1>States election. You cannot change the vote in so many

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<v Speaker 1>different places, using different technology, different ballots, different processes to

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<v Speaker 1>decide who certifies what. That becomes essentially impossible to fix.

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<v Speaker 1>And that is in some ways it's genius. Right. It

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<v Speaker 1>can be messed with on the corners. It certainly probably

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<v Speaker 1>used to be more when there was less sort of

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<v Speaker 1>transparency in the process. But Bloomberg did a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>reporting on this after the twenty twenty election and really

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<v Speaker 1>found that it is essentially impossible to steal a national

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<v Speaker 1>election in the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks to Meghan Crane from Bloomberg's Washington, DC bureau. For

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<v Speaker 2>more explanations like this from our team of twenty seven

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<v Speaker 2>hundred journalists and analysts around the world, search for Quick

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<v Speaker 2>Take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Stephen Carol. This is here's why. I'll be back next

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<v Speaker 2>week with more. Thanks for listening.