1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,960 Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carol and this is Here's Why, where we 3 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:13,239 Speaker 2: take one news story and explain it in just a 4 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: few minutes with our experts here at Bloomberg. This election 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 2: season in the US, there's one question that keeps coming up, 6 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 2: and it's not who's going to win, but how long 7 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 2: will it take to get a result. 8 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: There are a lot of concerns on Wall Street that 9 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: we could go through several days of uncertainty, not unlike 10 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: four years ago. And we know how much the markets 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 1: love that. 12 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 2: You're looking at a coin flip election and everyone wants 13 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: to know who gets it if it lands on its edge. 14 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,880 Speaker 2: All this weight, we want the result we want to 15 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 2: see after this really chaotic, tumultuous campaign and outcome. In reality, 16 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 2: there are fifty one different elections, one in each state 17 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 2: and in the District of Columbia. Each one follows its 18 00:00:54,920 --> 00:00:58,200 Speaker 2: own rules on where, when, and how ballots are cast, 19 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: which can affect when votes are counted and results are known. 20 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 2: In twenty twenty, it took almost four days to find 21 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: out who's been elected president. In two thousand, the decision 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 2: from the Supreme Court didn't come until mid December. So 23 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: here's why getting US election results is so complicated. Megan Crane, 24 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 2: who's an editor in our Washington bureau, joins us now 25 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: for more. Megan, great to talk to you. So different 26 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 2: states have these different rules for the elections. How much 27 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 2: divergence is there when it comes to counting. 28 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 1: I would say there's fifty different ways of doing it 29 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 1: really between the fifty states. Some count their ballots as 30 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: they come in early, Some allow for ballots to come 31 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: in after election day, and some don't. Some allow people 32 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: to come in and do what's called curing of their ballots. 33 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: We can talk about that more for quite some time, 34 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: and many don't, so it just really is up to 35 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: each and every state. 36 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: So it's pretty different than depending on where you are 37 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: talking about curing of balance. How does that work? 38 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: A cured ballot is basically if you send in a 39 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: mail ballot or an absentee ballot. Sometimes they don't get 40 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: counted for a variety of reasons. Someone forgets to sign 41 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: the envelope they come in, somebody doesn't get the right postmark, 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,360 Speaker 1: or for whatever reason they're not counted. You can actually 43 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: track that online. I voted early and I was able 44 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: to look and see that they had my ballot and 45 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: it had been noted. So you can look at that 46 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: and say, oh, I sent in my absentee belt, but 47 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 1: they never got it or they rejected it for some reason. 48 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,680 Speaker 1: And then you can go in in most jurisdictions and 49 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: say I want to do a new one and that 50 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: will then count instead of the previous ballot. The reason 51 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: that really impacts counting is, for example, some states have 52 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: like days after the election where they allow people to 53 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: do that. North Carolina is until November fourteenth, where someone 54 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: can come in and check their ballot make sure it 55 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: was counted. You can't really like change your vote, but 56 00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: you can make sure that the ballot that you sent 57 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: was counted. You know. If we're down to the wire 58 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: and North Carolina is as close as everyone says it 59 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: might be, that's what several days for us to be 60 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: even waiting until they can decide they have their last ballots. 61 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: And that touches on the really key part that mail 62 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: in ballots play in this election. And that's something that's 63 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 2: changed over time as well. 64 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: It has. Yeah, mail in ballots are new ish, I 65 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: wouldn't say they're a new phenomenon. And out West largely 66 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 1: where they have really a history of clean elections is 67 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: probably where that comes from. Like an Oregon, for example, 68 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: there's only mail in ballots. There's one like very rural 69 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: county where they still have polling places, but it's quite unusual. 70 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: Washington State is almost exclusively mail in ballots. Arizona has 71 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: a number of mail in ballots. People have that sort 72 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: of tradition and expectation there. In other places it wasn't 73 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: so common. And then, of course in twenty twenty we 74 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: were in the middle of COVID and they change the 75 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: rules in a lot of places making it easier to 76 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: vote by mail or drop off your ballot off hours 77 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: to keep crowds down and things like that, And so 78 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: we really don't have that much to compare it to 79 00:03:56,680 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: historically speaking, because those were new in twenty twenty, and 80 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: then people got used to it, right, so then they 81 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 1: expected to be able to keep doing that. In some places. 82 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: We have a huge turnout of early vote this year, 83 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 1: much more so than expected. 84 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: I think back in the last election, counting of the 85 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: mail in ballots was one of the things that took 86 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 2: so long in Pennsylvania for them to be able to 87 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 2: declare a result how much has changed in that process 88 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 2: since the last election, Right. 89 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 1: So, Pennsylvania's process has been standardized in this election and 90 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 1: is actually expected to be quite slow. They made a 91 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: rule that they cannot even open the envelopes of mail 92 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 1: in ballots until seven AM on election day, So that 93 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: means they can't you get them ready, sort of verify 94 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: the signatures, flatten them so they can go through the machines, 95 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: all that sort of stuff that would speed up that process. 96 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: They cannot do that until the morning of election day. 97 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:55,359 Speaker 1: They cannot start counting those votes until eight PM on 98 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: election day. So if they're all prepped and ready, I 99 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: suppose that process could go pretty quickly through the machines. 100 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: But that does make sort of a big open question 101 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: as to what will happen this year as far as 102 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: how long it takes to count in Pennsylvania, especially considering 103 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 1: that it's expected to be so close. 104 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:13,279 Speaker 2: What are the other things that can make counting some 105 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 2: of these votes quite complicated? Is the fact that you 106 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,599 Speaker 2: have so many races on the same ballot, and in 107 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: some places there are other voting initiatives that are happening 108 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 2: on election day as well. How does that affect the 109 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 2: overall process of counting the results. 110 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: I'm not sure what counting necessarily gets delayed by that, 111 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: but certainly like verification of the results gets complicated when 112 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: you have a lot of vote splitting, for example, and 113 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: the results don't really seem logical to an outside observer, 114 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: Say the top of the ticket goes heavily to one 115 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: party and everybody else goes heavily to a different party. 116 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: That can sort of raise questions about, you know, how 117 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: things work. There's also questions about like long lines on 118 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: election day, and then the rules I think in every 119 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: jurisdiction is that if you're in line when the polls close, 120 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: you have to be allowed to vote. Well, if the 121 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: lines are really that can be hours before the polls close, 122 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: And if the rules in that particular state are that 123 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: they can't count the votes until the polls close, you're 124 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: pushing things back by hours and hours. 125 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: Is it just a feeling or is the wait for 126 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 2: results actually getting longer from election to election. 127 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: I think on the presidential level it's not necessarily getting longer. 128 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: Of course, we didn't have a result in two thousand, 129 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: which was, you know, twenty four years ago, until December. 130 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 1: That result came after a long court fight, but we did, 131 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 1: in fact have those results pretty quickly. I think the 132 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: results have actually started to come faster in some ways 133 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: because we have all these mechanical ways to count votes, 134 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, if you're looking at a long historical trend, 135 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 1: but the country is so divided and the process is 136 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,600 Speaker 1: so meticulous that it does feel I think it feels 137 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 1: like it's taking longer, partly because we want immediate answers, 138 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 1: and also because the stakes are so high and people 139 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: just feel so entrenched and everybody wants to get it right, 140 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: and it feels like it takes weeks longer. You know, 141 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: it took several days last cycle, but before that, it didn't. Right. 142 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: We had a winner pretty much the night of election 143 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: night on twenty sixteen. Hillary Clinton didn't concede, but he 144 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: had won that night. We knew that by then that 145 00:07:13,120 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: was true. In twenty twelve was maybe one day, if 146 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: I'm trying to remember exactly. Two thousand and eight we 147 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: knew on election night. So you know, it's kind of 148 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: hard to. 149 00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 2: Say when we just have shorter our attentionspons, and that's 150 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 2: why it might feel like, Yeah, I think. 151 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,160 Speaker 1: That might be some of it. Yeah, we sort of 152 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 1: expect an immediate result. Yeah. 153 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: In advance of this election, we've been talking about both 154 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 2: campaigns preparing lawyers in case of legal challenges. What should 155 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 2: we be thinking about in terms of what challenges might 156 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 2: delay a result. 157 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 1: When you're thinking about delaying a result like an actual 158 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: sort of inauguration, what would be the most interesting are 159 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: the lawsuits that are basically fighting each county or each 160 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: state's ability to certify their count. You know, we all 161 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: learned a lot about that in the last process, about 162 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: how certification works. You never get a perfect count a 163 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: perfect there is no perfect process. There has to be 164 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,119 Speaker 1: some official system in which you say, okay, we're done now, 165 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: this is the time. We have done enough counting, enough 166 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: looking through this to decide that this is our result. 167 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: And there will be legal challenges to that, probably from 168 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: both sides. Those people who make those decisions are often partisan. 169 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 1: They're elected as partisans to nonpartisan rules. It can be 170 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: quite difficult to reach a consensus. 171 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 2: Briefly, Megan, has anyone ever thought about harmonizing this process 172 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: across the US to perhaps fed it up. Oh, people think. 173 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 1: About that a lot. But I would say if you 174 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: really talk to election experts, the messiness of our process 175 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 1: is in some ways its genius in that it is, 176 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: in fact, some would say, impossible to steal a United 177 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: States election. You cannot change the vote in so many 178 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 1: different places, using different technology, different ballots, different processes to 179 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: decide who certifies what. That becomes essentially impossible to fix. 180 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: And that is in some ways it's genius. Right. It 181 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: can be messed with on the corners. It certainly probably 182 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: used to be more when there was less sort of 183 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: transparency in the process. But Bloomberg did a lot of 184 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: reporting on this after the twenty twenty election and really 185 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: found that it is essentially impossible to steal a national 186 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: election in the United States. 187 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 2: Thanks to Meghan Crane from Bloomberg's Washington, DC bureau. For 188 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: more explanations like this from our team of twenty seven 189 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: hundred journalists and analysts around the world, search for Quick 190 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 2: Take on the Bloomberg website or Bloomberg Business app. I'm 191 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 2: Stephen Carol. This is here's why. I'll be back next 192 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: week with more. Thanks for listening.