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Speaker 1: All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Heres in

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Speaker 1: the Bonus with Doug Gottlieb.

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Speaker 2: Doug Gottlieb Show in the Bonus Fox Sports Radio, iHeart

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Speaker 2: Radio App. Hey, welcome in, Oh boo, how are you?

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Speaker 2: What's going on? How's your day? This is the Doug

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Speaker 2: Gottlieb Show. It's Fox Sports Radio, iHeartRadio app. Welcome in.

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Speaker 2: So obviously we got the big NFL game tonight in

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Speaker 2: Green Bay in Lambeau, and like, I think it's really

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Speaker 2: interesting on all that is sacrificed for the TV almighty dollar. Right,

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Speaker 2: And I use the Packers as the example of right,

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Speaker 2: because Green Bay in so many ways is like a

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Speaker 2: college town, like a college football town, and the Thursday

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Speaker 2: night game I just kind of screws up the tailgating, Like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: people are starting to tailgate already already. I mean you're

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Speaker 2: talking like noon here people are tailgating, and then they

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Speaker 2: got to get back and then they got to go

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Speaker 2: to work tomorrow. Now it does free up your weekend

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Speaker 2: to where you can do whatever and don't have to

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Speaker 2: worry about going to the game. But the hotel stays

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Speaker 2: are different, the travel is different, the field is different,

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Speaker 2: and again like I'm just I do wonder what the

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Speaker 2: next wave of sports looks like. I get it, I

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Speaker 2: get what Roger Goodell has been able to do. Put

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Speaker 2: the NFL on every different network, every different streaming service,

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Speaker 2: and just reap all the benefits. But at some point,

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Speaker 2: these teams that do make gobs and gobs of money,

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Speaker 2: the cities that help pay for construction of their stadiums

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Speaker 2: and of all of the different restaurants and whatever, they

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Speaker 2: benefit from it. But would they benefit more if the

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Speaker 2: games were always on a Sunday. I just it's into

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Speaker 2: the dollars and cents of it. Is interesting in terms

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Speaker 2: of gameplay if you're the Packers, and to a certain

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Speaker 2: extent obviously if your Commanders too, because it's a road game.

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Speaker 2: But if you're the Packers, if you can get in

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Speaker 2: and out of the first two weeks relatively unscathed with injuries,

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Speaker 2: taking down two potential likely playoff teams, and be two

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Speaker 2: and oh at home, like there, I don't think there's

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Speaker 2: a better start to the season. Then you beat the Lions,

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Speaker 2: and then you beat a good Commander's team at home,

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Speaker 2: and then give yourself a week and a half before

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Speaker 2: you prepare for your next week. You're fresh, you're arrested,

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Speaker 2: you're ready to go for the rest of the season,

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Speaker 2: and you're you got, you know, a game and a

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Speaker 2: half up on the Detroit lines to begin with.

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Speaker 1: This is the Dug Show on Fox Sports.

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Speaker 2: In terms of atmosphere around Green Bay different with the tailgating,

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Speaker 2: but the prize of potentially being two and oh with

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Speaker 2: two good wins and a half week off, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I feel like this has to be a game where

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Speaker 2: the pack went.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug gott

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Speaker 1: Leeb Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio and the Eye Hards Radio app.

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Speaker 2: It's The Doug Gottlieb Show at s Fox Sports Radio.

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Speaker 2: Kelly Ford joined us. He's got his college football index.

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Speaker 2: You need to go to his website, go to his

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Speaker 2: Twitter handle, follow him because we sure as heck do Kelly.

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Speaker 2: So far in this college football season, what's the biggest

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Speaker 2: surprise in comparison to the data you had in terms

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Speaker 2: of your prediction data? You know, and we're only two

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Speaker 2: and a half weeks in the season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been There's still a lot still to happen here. Doug.

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Speaker 3: But for me, you know, you can go a couple

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Speaker 3: of ways with this biggest surprise in the positive direction,

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Speaker 3: I'll say South Florida. I mean, obviously the upset Florida

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Speaker 3: last week and the swamp. They have one point seven

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Speaker 3: more wins than my preseason model projected through this point

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Speaker 3: of the season. Who want to go to the other

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Speaker 3: end of the spectrum on winds above or below expected,

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Speaker 3: Kansas State has one and a half fewer wins right

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Speaker 3: now than we thought they'd have coming into week three.

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Speaker 3: The other way to look at this, Doug, is who

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Speaker 3: has improved their power rating the most and who has

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Speaker 3: seen the biggest drop. South Florida number two and biggest

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Speaker 3: improvement behind only Florida State. The model has upgraded Florida

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Speaker 3: State eleven points from the preseason to current I mean, Doug,

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Speaker 3: that is extraordinary. That amount of improvement in just two

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Speaker 3: weeks is almost unprecedented. Florida State's off to a great

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Speaker 3: start this year, much better than many, including my model expected.

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Speaker 3: Kansas State's the number two biggest faller. The only team

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Speaker 3: to fall worse, Doug, I'm sorry to say it's Oklahoma State.

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Speaker 3: The Polks have not performed well, according to the model's expectations,

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Speaker 3: they're down nine points from the preseason. So Oklahoma State,

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Speaker 3: Kansas State struggling, Florida State, and Florida acudent South Florida surgeing.

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Speaker 2: Okay, we got some interesting games this week shot with

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Speaker 2: the budd three two one. Okay, here's one that's an

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Speaker 2: interesting team and they lost at home to LSU and

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Speaker 2: then kind of survived at home after trailing at the

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Speaker 2: half against Troy last week. Clemson, who preseason wise, I

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Speaker 2: think you had him in the College Football Playoff A

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Speaker 2: lot of people did. They're a three point favorite at

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Speaker 2: Georgia Tech this weekend after some uneven uneven performances these

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Speaker 2: first two games in what do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Clemson, they're a team that is struggling, right, I mean,

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Speaker 3: the model has downgraded them five and a half points

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Speaker 3: from the preseason. That's number one twenty seven out of

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Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty six FBS team. So it's not

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Speaker 3: going well right now for Clemson. Yet, a team that

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Speaker 3: I had pegs to be the representative from the ACC

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Speaker 3: and the Cogwall playoffs, they are still right there in

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Speaker 3: the projections for a fight in a spot in Charlotte.

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Speaker 3: Of course, Florida State and Miami the other two primary contenders,

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Speaker 3: but the team right behind them all is Georgia Tech

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Speaker 3: right now number four and my projected conference standings. While

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Speaker 3: Clemson's been fliding, Georgia Tech has been upgraded about two

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Speaker 3: and a half points from the preseason. So I do

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Speaker 3: have Clemson as a small favorite here on the road

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Speaker 3: fifty seven percent win expectancy, but I think both offenses

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Speaker 3: have the advantage in this game. The best unit in

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Speaker 3: this game is Georgia Tech's offense. I have the number

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Speaker 3: sixteen on that side of the ball now. Conversely, Georgia

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Speaker 3: Tech's defense at number forty nine is the worst unit

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Speaker 3: in this game. So the home field advantage getting applied here.

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Speaker 3: But I do think that Clemson, as things stand right now,

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Speaker 3: the more talented team, Doug. I have this game with

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Speaker 3: a watchability score of a nine point two. That makes

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Speaker 3: it a top five game of the week for me.

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Speaker 2: That's that's impressive, Gonna be fun. Okay, here's a big

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Speaker 2: one Georgia Tennessee. So Georgia three and a half point

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Speaker 2: favorite in Knoxville. Totals forty nine and a half. Both

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Speaker 2: teams two and zero in the year, but neither team challenge.

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Speaker 2: What's the computer model tell us?

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Speaker 3: So this is a big game dog nine point eight

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Speaker 3: out of ten on watchability, that numberumber one game of

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Speaker 3: the week by that metric, and I Doug I posted

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Speaker 3: it on Sunday when I update the power ratings. Every

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Speaker 3: single Sunday morning, new version of power rating comes out,

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Speaker 3: and then the content flows throughout the week. Based on

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Speaker 3: the schedule that I've said I've published, my model makes

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Speaker 3: Tennessee a slight favorite in this game. Georgia opened as

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Speaker 3: a seven and a half point favorite that has fallen

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Speaker 3: down to three and a half. I don't think it's

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Speaker 3: going to continue to move too much. I mean, I'd

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Speaker 3: be surprised if we kicked and Georgia was less than

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Speaker 3: a two and a half point favorite. But my model

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Speaker 3: really likes Tennessee. I likes the home field advantage there

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Speaker 3: in Knoxville. It's a top ten team for me. Tennessee overall.

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Speaker 3: They're number four on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: George is a good team. I mean they're number seven

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Speaker 3: in the model. They're a better team than Tennessee based

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Speaker 3: on what my models saying. If they played on neutral field.

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Speaker 3: This is not a neutral field, so I have Tennessee

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Speaker 3: as a very very small favorite here. Money line, Georgia

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Speaker 3: has struggled this year. Last week they were downgraded more

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Speaker 3: than four points by the model, and on the season,

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Speaker 3: Tennessee's come up about two and a half points. So again,

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Speaker 3: I think it's the best game of the week, and

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Speaker 3: my model disagrees with Vegas here. That doesn't happen very often,

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Speaker 3: but when it does, it has provided value to many

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Speaker 3: people out there who use it for their recreational purposes.

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Speaker 2: Backyard brol Pittsburgh taking on in West Virginia. Rich Rod

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Speaker 2: back at West Virginia. But it's surely they lose to Ohio.

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Speaker 2: You on the road if you're beating Robert Morris obviously

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Speaker 2: a massive step up in competition against Pitt. But pitt

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Speaker 2: beat Crosstown Crosstown School, Ducane beat Central Michigan. I missed

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Speaker 2: a historic rivalry, but in Morgantown a seven point dog.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about the ears chance of pulled

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Speaker 2: off what would be a home win upset.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like them better than Vegas here, but I

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Speaker 3: do have pitt as a favorite. I have it with

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Speaker 3: less than seven though, But West Virginia's got a thirty

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Speaker 3: six percent chance to win this game according to my model, Doug,

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Speaker 3: and it wasn't good for West Virginia last week. But

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Speaker 3: all in all, the season projections still haven't changed too much.

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Speaker 3: On the Mountaineers. I have their number sixty five in

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Speaker 3: the model. The defense is the better of the two

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Speaker 3: unit that number fifty two, but Pitt should have the

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Speaker 3: advantage on both sides of the ball here, in particular

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Speaker 3: on offense, where I have the Panthers number twenty eight

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Speaker 3: on that side. Going against what I just said, they're

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Speaker 3: the fifty second ranked defense for West Virginia, So I

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Speaker 3: like Pitting this game. I like it to be a

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Speaker 3: one score game though, like Vegas does. The backyard brawl

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Speaker 3: is exciting. I know it came back for the first

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Speaker 3: time in a long time, a couple of years ago

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Speaker 3: now or a year or two ago now. This is

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Speaker 3: a great game. It's a lot of fun and lost

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Speaker 3: a little bit of luster when West Virginia lost last week.

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Speaker 3: But the hatred flows here and Pitt fans are going

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Speaker 3: to be looking to get after it in West Virginia.

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Speaker 3: So I do like the Panthers, but I expect a

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Speaker 3: close game.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to catch live editions of the Doug Gottlieb

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Speaker 1: Show weekday. He's at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.

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Speaker 2: This is the Doug Outleibs Show here on Fox Sports Radio.

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Speaker 2: Kelly Ford joining us, of course, He's got his k

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Speaker 2: Ford Ratings index. And m lost a Notre Damement home

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Speaker 2: last year. Now they travel on the road to South Bend.

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Speaker 2: They're a six and a half point dog two team

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Speaker 2: with a lot of talent, two teams with college football

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Speaker 2: playoff hopes. What do you think the aggie chances are

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Speaker 2: beat in the.

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Speaker 3: Irish Yeah, I think that number is just about right, Doug.

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Speaker 3: I've got Notre Dame minus seven here, so I'm pretty

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Speaker 3: close to the Vegas line. This to me is the

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Speaker 3: second best game of the week with regard to watchability

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Speaker 3: score nine point seven out of ten. Both of these

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Speaker 3: teams are really good. Notre Dame still a top ten

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Speaker 3: power rated team. I know they're zero to one on

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Speaker 3: the year two weeks to go. Lost to Miami on

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Speaker 3: the road that Sunday night game. They were off last week,

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Speaker 3: so I think that helps Notre Dames amm though, even

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Speaker 3: though They're two to zero. They've been downgraded about a

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Speaker 3: field goal since we started the season, so not performing

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Speaker 3: to the level of the model expected at home against

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Speaker 3: UTSA and Utah State. Despite the two wins, this is

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Speaker 3: still a top twenty team. Though they're going on the road.

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame knows that their margin for air is getting smaller.

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame can lose this game and still make the

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Speaker 3: College Ball Playoff. I believe Doug because let's say they

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Speaker 3: run the table. They're ten and two, They've won ten

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Speaker 3: in a row. It's the Notre Dame brand. I just

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Speaker 3: think a ten and two Notre Dame. You know, it

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Speaker 3: depends on you have a resume. But I think the

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Speaker 3: committee's going to be partial to them. So this is

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Speaker 3: not a do or die game for Notre Dame. But

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Speaker 3: they know if they lose this one, they had zero

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Speaker 3: room for air moving forward. I think the fighting Irish

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Speaker 3: are going to come out and get it done. It's

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Speaker 3: relatively even in terms of the matchups here. I do

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Speaker 3: think the best unit in this game is the ann

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Speaker 3: offense at number nineteen, but they have the worst unit

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Speaker 3: on the other side at number thirty one. So homefield

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Speaker 3: advantage is going to be big here, plus the rest

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Speaker 3: advantage for the fighting Irish from being off last week.

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Speaker 3: I like Notre Dame by about the biggest spreads.

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Speaker 2: What about Utah head to get into Wyoming. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if you looked at that one. Obviously Wyoming. Utah

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Speaker 2: plays out too, but nothing like seventy four one hundred

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Speaker 2: feet and Wyoming. Kind of a cool two and zero

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Speaker 2: old school whack matchup. Right, It's now big twelve and

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Speaker 2: I think Mountain West, but it's an old school whack matchup.

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Speaker 2: Wyoming's a twenty three and a half point dog at home.

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Speaker 2: That one just screams to me. Take Wyoming.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Doug, you know I've looked at this. When we

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Speaker 3: look at every single game, you can find these previews

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Speaker 3: all over the website. I think the numbers about rightaw,

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Speaker 3: I've got a ninety five percent win expectancy here. You know,

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Speaker 3: you look at the relative advantages. You know you saw

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Speaker 3: the top ten team on the defensive side of the ball,

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Speaker 3: they're number nine. For me, this Wyoming offense is number

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Speaker 3: one oh seven out of one hundred and thirty six

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Speaker 3: SBS teams. So I'm just not sure that Wyoming's gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to score many points here. Yes, the altitude

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Speaker 3: is not nothing. You know, Utah playing in Salt Lake.

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Speaker 3: They're used to it a little bit, but it's not Wyoming,

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Speaker 3: so I'll give you that. But I do think Utaw

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Speaker 3: is and should be a healthy favorite here again ninety

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Speaker 3: five percent win expectancy. Perhaps the most notable thing here though,

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Speaker 3: Doug is I have Utah now as the favorite in

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Speaker 3: the Big Twelve. They've been upgraded more than seven and

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Speaker 3: a half points from the preseason. That's number four nationally.

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Speaker 3: Only three teams have been upgraded by the Model more

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Speaker 3: since the preseason than the Utah youth. So I right

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Speaker 3: now have Utaw as a very small favorite to win

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Speaker 3: the Big twelve Conference or at least make it to Arlington,

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Speaker 3: along with TCU being the other. So this is a

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Speaker 3: game that you saw what they're going to need to

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Speaker 3: come out and perform well. Hopefully they're not looking ahead

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Speaker 3: big Big Big twelve match up next week at home

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Speaker 3: there in Salt Lake against Texas Tech has seen that

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Speaker 3: many people talked about being a dark horse or maybe

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Speaker 3: even more than that for the playoff this year. So

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Speaker 3: Utah can't afford to look ahead. But I do expect

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Speaker 3: them to take care of business. I really like their defense.

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Speaker 2: Okay, two more Florida. LSU Florida disappointing loss at home

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Speaker 2: to South Florida. Get to South Florida second, but now

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Speaker 2: they go to Baton Rouge and their seven and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorites. I mean LSU looked really good against Clemson.

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Speaker 2: Can can Florida pull off an upset?

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Speaker 3: Can Florida pull off an upset? Yes, of course they can.

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Speaker 3: I I've got it a twenty nine percent win expectancy

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Speaker 3: for the Gators right there at about seven points. So

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Speaker 3: what you said was the Vegas line. It was a

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Speaker 3: disappointing result last week for Florida and they were downgrade

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Speaker 3: at four points in the model because of it. LSU, yes,

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Speaker 3: they didn't look good against Clenson getting that win in

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Speaker 3: a comeback fashion, but last week against Louisiana Tech was

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Speaker 3: not great. I mean they were downgraded at three and

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Speaker 3: a half points in the model from from last week's performance.

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Speaker 3: So this is a huge game. Number three and watch

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Speaker 3: a bill be at nine point five. I think the

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Speaker 3: line is about right. I do like LSU in this one, though,

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Speaker 3: you know, Death Valley is a very hard place to play.

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Speaker 3: Florida and LSU are rivals. I know it's not maybe

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Speaker 3: a traditional rivalry, but these two teams do not like

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Speaker 3: each other, and there's been some big games and big

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Speaker 3: outcomes here even in recent years, so I expect this

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Speaker 3: to be filled with hate. But LSU, I think has

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Speaker 3: enough to get it done. They're number twelve in my model,

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Speaker 3: Florida down to number twenty this week and it's at

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Speaker 3: Death Valley.

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Speaker 2: Awesome stuff, Kelly, all right, last one you mentioned in

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Speaker 2: South Florida. Earlier they beat Boise State, they beat Florida

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Speaker 2: at Florida, and now the challenge is even bigger as

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Speaker 2: they got Miami and the Hurricanes. They have them on

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Speaker 2: the road. They're seventeen and a half point favorites and

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Speaker 2: the total fifty seven a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think the line should be seventeen and

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Speaker 3: a half. I've got this closer to, you know, eight

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Speaker 3: and a half or so. In terms of Miami being

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Speaker 3: the favorite. It's very early in the year here, Doug.

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Speaker 3: But one of my favorite things that I have and

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Speaker 3: my all of my content I produced, is the most

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Speaker 3: deserving rankings, And basically what that does is it looks

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Speaker 3: at everybody's you know, achievement so far this year, just

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Speaker 3: looking at this season's results, nothing else. What have you

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Speaker 3: accomplished this season relative to expected of a you know,

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Speaker 3: a common team given your schedule. South Florida right now

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Speaker 3: would be ranked number three in my most Deserving rankings.

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Speaker 3: Miami's number four. So these are two teams that are very,

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Speaker 3: very accomplished through two weeks. Of course, one of them

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Speaker 3: is going to get a feather in the cap here.

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Speaker 3: My numbers do like Miami by about eight eight and

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Speaker 3: a half points. I have Miami number eighteen in the

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Speaker 3: power ratings. They're at home in this one. USF has

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Speaker 3: been upgraded, as I said earlier, second most of anybody

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Speaker 3: since the preseason, but they're still just number forty one

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Speaker 3: in the model. So it's possible that they're better than that,

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Speaker 3: and the model is still trying to catch up. I

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Speaker 3: think that's coming in here, but I don't think Miami

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Speaker 3: should be favored by as much as they are. I

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Speaker 3: do expect the Cane to get the win in Miami

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Speaker 3: right now, sitting very pretty in the acc USF to

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Speaker 3: their credit, looking like the most likely group of five,

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Speaker 3: or I should say group six Conference champion now to

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Speaker 3: be a representative in the Comfortball playoff at the end

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Speaker 3: of the year.

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Speaker 2: Kelly, you're the best man. I just love having you on.

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Speaker 2: We'd love your information. We encourage everybody to go to

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Speaker 2: your site and check it out. He's the one and

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Speaker 2: only Kelly Ford. K Ford Ratings is your spot for

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Speaker 2: all your analytics and predictive analysis that I think is

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Speaker 2: really going to help you if you lay some money

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Speaker 2: on it or you just want to be a more

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Speaker 2: educated fan. Kelly, have a great weekend. Thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Doug appreciate it always.

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Speaker 2: All Right. That's it for the ind The Ones podcast.

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Speaker 2: Check out the radio show every day three to five

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Speaker 2: e's from twelve too Pacific, Fox Sports Tradio, Ihart Radio

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Speaker 2: App'm Doug Gotlie