1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

2
00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

3
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

4
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:15,600
Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

5
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,800
Speaker 3: We're growing in job spectacular.

6
00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,360
Speaker 2: I'm sitting it to cash touch down.

7
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

8
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker 4: go to win.

9
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

10
00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:31,080
Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

11
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,120
Speaker 2: I like to make money.

12
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,639
Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to pull,

13
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,040
Speaker 5: and we are underway.

14
00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:45,280
Speaker 6: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL Fantasy Flax episode

15
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,840
Speaker 6: of the award winning Action Network podcast, presented by Bett MGM,

16
00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,080
Speaker 6: the official odds provider of the show. I'm Matthew Freeman,

17
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,160
Speaker 6: the editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and here with

18
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,959
Speaker 6: me are Sean Corner and Chris Raybond. Sean is the

19
00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,920
Speaker 6: Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics, and Chris is a

20
00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 6: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network. There too,

21
00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 6: the best fantasy football rankers in the world.

22
00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:08,840
Speaker 2: It is wild Card weekend.

23
00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,520
Speaker 6: The official fantasy season is over, but there are various

24
00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:14,880
Speaker 6: postseason contests that people play in, and of course there

25
00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 6: is DFS, so we are still doing the Fantasy Flex

26
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:21,320
Speaker 6: Show throughout the Playoffs all the way to the super Bowl.

27
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,880
Speaker 6: I imagine it one point, probably the week before the

28
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 6: Super Bowl, we will have a propapalooza type of show

29
00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,560
Speaker 6: where we cover all of these super Bowl props that

30
00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,280
Speaker 6: we are betting, so something to look forward to in

31
00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,240
Speaker 6: the future. In this episode, we are highlighting the players

32
00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,319
Speaker 6: at the top of our rankings and the fantasy tool

33
00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,000
Speaker 6: at Action Network. We're discussing the guys who are high

34
00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 6: and low on and looking at how they do in

35
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,959
Speaker 6: our Fantasy Labs models, and we are speculating on some

36
00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:52,760
Speaker 6: player props. Right, gentlemen, let's get to the rankings. And

37
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,600
Speaker 6: by the way, I should say, as we're recording this ravon,

38
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,080
Speaker 6: your rankings aren't in there. Man, Come on, this is

39
00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,480
Speaker 6: malfeasance of the highest degree. What's going on?

40
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,840
Speaker 4: Actually, I was notified that I was being pulled from

41
00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:10,919
Speaker 4: the podcast for some random third string dude.

42
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:14,799
Speaker 3: So you know, just in honor of Doug Peterson, no rankings.

43
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,600
Speaker 6: Okay, Well, you are the Jalen Hurts of course of

44
00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:23,520
Speaker 6: this podcast, no question about that. With your ECONOMI code ability,

45
00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:28,000
Speaker 6: you are the Jalen Hurts function. Okay, the quarterbacks at

46
00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,040
Speaker 6: the top of our rankings, right, now Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen,

47
00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,680
Speaker 6: Tom Brady. Sean, I'm gonna kick it to you first,

48
00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:39,600
Speaker 6: because as already established, Raybond doesn't even have rankings at

49
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 6: this point. Sean, who are you high on this week?

50
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,120
Speaker 6: Keeping in mind of course, that now we have six

51
00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,880
Speaker 6: games for Wildcard weekend, I think super Wildcard Weekend, it

52
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:53,080
Speaker 6: is very originally being dubbed instead of the four that

53
00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:54,600
Speaker 6: we have had in previous seasons.

54
00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:59,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm high on Josh Allen for this slate.

55
00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:04,160
Speaker 5: He's obviously, you know, has one of the highest ceilings

56
00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,360
Speaker 5: on the entire slate, if not the highest, but you know,

57
00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,440
Speaker 5: he's established a pretty high floor this year as well,

58
00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,280
Speaker 5: so we could trust him in cash games. He's he's

59
00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 5: pretty much matchup proof of This matchup against Indy, well,

60
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,919
Speaker 5: it's not as imposing as it was earlier in the season.

61
00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 5: I think he'll be able to overcome it. He has

62
00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,639
Speaker 5: John Brown back, which is huge. He should be getting

63
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,160
Speaker 5: Cold Beasley back, so he'll have all his receivers healthy.

64
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:26,679
Speaker 7: And I mean, just look at last week.

65
00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,880
Speaker 5: He was able to put up two hundred twenty four

66
00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,120
Speaker 5: yards and three touchdowns and pretty much half of action

67
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,760
Speaker 5: against the Dolphins defense when they were actively trying to

68
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,480
Speaker 5: win the game. That was the most Week seventeen DFS

69
00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,240
Speaker 5: logic thing I've ever seen, by the way. So yeah,

70
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,440
Speaker 5: I'll be all over Josh Allen here for this shorter

71
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:45,440
Speaker 5: six games late, all.

72
00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,440
Speaker 6: Right, And another guy that I'm high on who was

73
00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,440
Speaker 6: in our top three, Lamar Jackson. Very original to say

74
00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,640
Speaker 6: that I'm high on Lamar Jackson, but you know, he

75
00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:58,200
Speaker 6: was fantastic in twenty nineteen MVP season, disappointed in the

76
00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,640
Speaker 6: first half of twenty twenty, but since returning, since his

77
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,240
Speaker 6: activation from the COVID nineteen list, he's pretty much been

78
00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 6: his twenty nineteen MVP self with the fantasy production that

79
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,480
Speaker 6: we've seen out of him. He's at his best when

80
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,320
Speaker 6: he's a favorite, at least against the spread, tends to

81
00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,719
Speaker 6: do pretty well on the road, and he's going against

82
00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,080
Speaker 6: a Tennessee defense that is one of the worst in

83
00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,159
Speaker 6: the league. So certainly I see Josh Allen and why

84
00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 6: you would be high on him. I also have Josh

85
00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,560
Speaker 6: Allen in my top three, have him number one for

86
00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,559
Speaker 6: the slate, but Lamar Jackson is a very close number

87
00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,680
Speaker 6: two for me, and you know, it's just depending on

88
00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,160
Speaker 6: maybe the site that you are at where you need

89
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 6: to save salary for DFS, I can definitely see a

90
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 6: case for going with Lamar instead of Josh Allen, Raybond.

91
00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 6: Who are you high on for Wildcard Weekend?

92
00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I love obviously those are two quarterbacks

93
00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 4: at the top, But you know, Josh Allen, I think

94
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,600
Speaker 4: number one, just because you look at that coach defense

95
00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,320
Speaker 4: and you know, even last week, you know, they gave

96
00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:01,480
Speaker 4: up twenty six to forty two touchdowns to Mike Glennon.

97
00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,280
Speaker 4: They've given up multiple scores passing four weeks in a

98
00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,440
Speaker 4: row to close out the season, they've given up three

99
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 4: hundred and sixteen or more yards and for the last

100
00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 4: five to close out the season. But a guy that's

101
00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:16,599
Speaker 4: a little further down, because I think Allen and Jackson

102
00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:17,919
Speaker 4: are kind of in a tier their own. It's going

103
00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,839
Speaker 4: to be hard to go away from them. But in tournaments,

104
00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,000
Speaker 4: obviously you're going to have to. I think Ryan Tannehill

105
00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,600
Speaker 4: is really interesting. You know that Ravens defense is really good,

106
00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:30,000
Speaker 4: but we already you already talked about their defense is

107
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:35,760
Speaker 4: straight awful. And Ryan Tannehill, he has multiple touchdowns in

108
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,640
Speaker 4: I believe it's eighty six percent of his starts as

109
00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,040
Speaker 4: a tight end going back to last season when he

110
00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,279
Speaker 4: took over. So you could easily see this game turning

111
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 4: into a shootout. And Tannehill because of how good Arthur

112
00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,320
Speaker 4: Smith has been calling plays and how good that offense is,

113
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,960
Speaker 4: they can score even on good defenses. So I think

114
00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,760
Speaker 4: Tannehill is a guy that, especially if you plan a

115
00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:02,239
Speaker 4: go with, you know, some acting stacks in your tournament portfolio,

116
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,680
Speaker 4: to bring it back and make a few iteps with

117
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,880
Speaker 4: Tannehill as well, because you're saving about one thousand dollars

118
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:13,159
Speaker 4: twelve hundred over Jackson and nine hundred on Allen.

119
00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 3: So Mike, right, Tannehill is a as the QB three.

120
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, and Raymond, to your point about that game, it

121
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,400
Speaker 6: has the highest total on the slate pretty easily around

122
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 6: fifty four and a half fifty five depending on where

123
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:29,039
Speaker 6: you're looking right now. I see actually fifty three and

124
00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,720
Speaker 6: a half at bet MGM, but I'm imagining that we'll

125
00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:35,680
Speaker 6: probably move up and so certainly we could see a

126
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:39,120
Speaker 6: lot of points in that game and the over I mean,

127
00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,159
Speaker 6: as we've talked about on the show, talked about on

128
00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:42,960
Speaker 6: the Convinced Me show that we do on the weekend.

129
00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:45,960
Speaker 6: I mean the over for Tennessee is just almost an

130
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:49,480
Speaker 6: automatic at this point, so certainly a lot of points

131
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,760
Speaker 6: that we could see there. Sean, who is a quarterback

132
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,960
Speaker 6: you are low on for wild card weekend?

133
00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:57,719
Speaker 5: Well, I feel like I've been low on Russell Olson

134
00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:01,200
Speaker 5: for about a month or two now, and I faded

135
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,920
Speaker 5: him last week, and no regrets here. You know, Seattle's

136
00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:06,880
Speaker 5: just run heavy team now. A lot of that has

137
00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,400
Speaker 5: to do with their defense playing much much better now,

138
00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:13,000
Speaker 5: but you could certainly see this game script against the

139
00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,280
Speaker 5: John Walford led Rams could be a very low scoring one.

140
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,920
Speaker 5: The forty two and a half total is the lowest

141
00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,600
Speaker 5: of the weekend, so I think that's that's gonna rob

142
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,800
Speaker 5: Wilson of you know, the ceiling we saw in the

143
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,640
Speaker 5: earlier part of the season that is long gone. Wilson's

144
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,640
Speaker 5: usually a lock for two hundred passing yards, a passing touchdown,

145
00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:32,960
Speaker 5: and thirty yards in the ground, so I will be

146
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:36,040
Speaker 5: passing that up at sixty seven hundred. Maybe we'll find

147
00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,160
Speaker 5: a situation later on in the playoffs where he might

148
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,000
Speaker 5: be forced to throw a bit, but this isn't one

149
00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,040
Speaker 5: of those games, so I will be fading him again

150
00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 5: this week.

151
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,680
Speaker 6: One guy I'm relatively low on is Drew Brees. I

152
00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,160
Speaker 6: have him ranked number seven now. It's ostensibly a good

153
00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,640
Speaker 6: situation for him, and that he's a big home favorite

154
00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,440
Speaker 6: playing indoors, you know, one of the few games this

155
00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:58,880
Speaker 6: weekend that is indoors, And so you know, I could

156
00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:03,040
Speaker 6: see people theoretically wanting to target that Breeze is a

157
00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:07,080
Speaker 6: home favorite, like that is his smash spot, but his

158
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 6: wide receiver unit is incomplete, and he has a pretty

159
00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:13,040
Speaker 6: tough matchup against the Bears, and uh, you know, he's

160
00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,240
Speaker 6: Drew Brees at this point. So I just I don't

161
00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 6: know if I really would want to be investing in

162
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:20,720
Speaker 6: him when I think there are other quarterbacks who have

163
00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,320
Speaker 6: you know, similar price range and probably higher upside at

164
00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,400
Speaker 6: this point. So Breeze is someone I am definitely staying

165
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,680
Speaker 6: away from this weekend. Raybond, who are you low on?

166
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,400
Speaker 4: I don't know how I went third and no one

167
00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:39,880
Speaker 4: mentioned either Washington quarterback I mean Alex Smith and Taylor Heineke.

168
00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 3: Right, No, but you know it's not it's it's in tournaments.

169
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 4: I mean there's only what, well, guys, you know, I'm

170
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,360
Speaker 4: sure somebody's gonna touch you know, they'll get like two

171
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 4: percent ownership. But this is I mean, even if Alex

172
00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:54,360
Speaker 4: Smith were to play the whole game, no, because he

173
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,760
Speaker 4: doesn't run. He's run like, you know, five times a

174
00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,800
Speaker 4: year for like three yards, and and Heineke's just awful.

175
00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 3: So you know, those two guys I think are the

176
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:03,199
Speaker 3: two for me.

177
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,640
Speaker 4: But you know, going with a quarterback that's not a

178
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 4: Washington quarterback, it's it's Baker Mayfield for me because we

179
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,320
Speaker 4: know how he plays against pressure. This Pittsburgh defense, yes,

180
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 4: it's banged up compared to what they were, you know,

181
00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,720
Speaker 4: at their peak this season, but they still finished about

182
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,520
Speaker 4: six point six percentage points ahead of any other team

183
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:23,720
Speaker 4: in the league in terms of generating pressure on the quarterback.

184
00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,160
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield well outside the top thirty two signal callers

185
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 4: in terms of passer rating under pressure. So you know,

186
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,160
Speaker 4: this is a nightmare, just a nightmare matter for him.

187
00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,480
Speaker 4: And now you're looking at you know, the head coach

188
00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:36,680
Speaker 4: being being out as well.

189
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, Raybond, we didn't mention Alex Smith because we're not

190
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 6: like Happy Gilmour out here playing dodgeball with grade school kids,

191
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,360
Speaker 6: right like that's it's you know, like Alex Smith. Come on, like,

192
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,640
Speaker 6: we're not We're not dunking on him or anything.

193
00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,480
Speaker 7: Right, probably shit, I mean.

194
00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 2: Come back players of the Year, you know, put some respect.

195
00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:57,400
Speaker 3: On his name, Fen Roethlisberger.

196
00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,880
Speaker 6: Okay, all right, let's get to the prop part of

197
00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:02,840
Speaker 6: the show. By the way, everyone should be sure to

198
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,360
Speaker 6: check out the Fantasy Labs player prop tool, where the

199
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 6: props with a bet quality of ten have a sixty

200
00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:09,760
Speaker 6: percent win rate over the past two years, and of course,

201
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,680
Speaker 6: when player props are posted, you can bet them at

202
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 6: bet m g in Sean.

203
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:16,920
Speaker 2: Give us the quarterback prop.

204
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 5: Let's go with Lamar Jackson rushing yards because that's always

205
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,600
Speaker 5: the most fun stat to project.

206
00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:26,520
Speaker 7: Right now, I have is over.

207
00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,199
Speaker 5: Under at eighty three and a half. Where are you

208
00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:29,840
Speaker 5: guys on him?

209
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 2: Who that that is high?

210
00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,800
Speaker 7: Yeah, I know.

211
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:42,720
Speaker 6: I'm normally the over donkey, but I'm taking the under

212
00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 6: in this instance. Like your line is so high relative

213
00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:48,680
Speaker 6: to what I have. I have like sixty two and

214
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,200
Speaker 6: a half. Like your line is so high relative to

215
00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:53,720
Speaker 6: my line that it makes me think there's something massively

216
00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,480
Speaker 6: wrong with my line, and I need to go back

217
00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:56,040
Speaker 6: and look at it.

218
00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:00,920
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go yeah, I'm gonna go under. Too, for

219
00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,959
Speaker 4: the reason that I think they try to keep him

220
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,000
Speaker 4: in the pocket. I think, and that might come back

221
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 4: to Burnham, but I just think that's going to be

222
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,079
Speaker 4: the game plan against him. It was in the last

223
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:15,520
Speaker 4: playoff matchup. Unfortunately, they ended up running like ninety five plays.

224
00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 3: So Lamar he literally had fifty nine pass attempts.

225
00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,679
Speaker 4: In twenty rushing its out, So you know, that was

226
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:23,960
Speaker 4: just kind of I don't think you can kind of

227
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 4: use that game is like a total one for one here.

228
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:32,360
Speaker 4: Obviously Danps, defensive coordinator for for the Titans last season,

229
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,160
Speaker 4: is gone. But I do think that that will be

230
00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,360
Speaker 4: the game plan, keep him in the pocket. And that's

231
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,040
Speaker 4: just a high one relative too. I think you know

232
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 4: what he's done this season anyway. So yeah, I'll go under,

233
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:43,679
Speaker 4: but it's not comfortable.

234
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,680
Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, Just good luck to anybody that that's the

235
00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,280
Speaker 5: under on this this week. I think that the sportsbooks

236
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,760
Speaker 5: will probably said it in the low eighties if I

237
00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:53,600
Speaker 5: had to guess, So I think this should be pretty close.

238
00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:56,040
Speaker 5: And yeah, I don't think i'll I'll even bet it

239
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:57,080
Speaker 5: if it's this high.

240
00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm just so I'm looking at what Lamar has

241
00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,480
Speaker 6: done since he returned from being on the COVID list

242
00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:07,600
Speaker 6: in week thirteen and you know, averaging eighty six yards

243
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:12,000
Speaker 6: per game since then, So like he's he's basically in

244
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:16,160
Speaker 6: you know, his peak. Lamar formed at this point, so

245
00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,800
Speaker 6: I probably need to adjust my line. It's probably impacted

246
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 6: more by what he did in the first ten ten

247
00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,120
Speaker 6: games of the season, and you know, in that ten

248
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,319
Speaker 6: game stretch he had fifty seven and a half yards

249
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:28,839
Speaker 6: per game, So you know, over the past month he's

250
00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,079
Speaker 6: been a different Lamar. I just, you know, I don't know.

251
00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,120
Speaker 6: I don't know what's sample to privilege, if I should

252
00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,880
Speaker 6: be looking at the whole season or looking more at

253
00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,439
Speaker 6: what he's done in the past five games. So I

254
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,800
Speaker 6: don't I don't know. Sean, like obviously it seems like

255
00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:45,880
Speaker 6: you're focused more on what he's done recently.

256
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, that's a good point that when he came

257
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 5: back from COVID, he's been a different runner. You could

258
00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:53,959
Speaker 5: tell he's been playing with a smile on his face.

259
00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,160
Speaker 5: So I've been waiting, waiting the last five games a

260
00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,120
Speaker 5: bit heavier with him. But like you said, you know,

261
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:04,520
Speaker 5: mid season, I remember we were both kind of fading

262
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,640
Speaker 5: him and saying he wasn't even a QB one. But

263
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,920
Speaker 5: he's a different Lamar now. He's probably he's probably not

264
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:12,280
Speaker 5: putting as much on his shoulders when it comes to

265
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,040
Speaker 5: the passing game, and it seems like when they're in

266
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,520
Speaker 5: must win games, he just runs more. So that's that's

267
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,320
Speaker 5: kind of going into it. But it does seem like

268
00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,079
Speaker 5: he's trending way up when it comes to rushing stats.

269
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,320
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is that's a good line. I'm gonna have

270
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 6: to think about that one a little bit and I

271
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,600
Speaker 6: will be curious to see where the where the books

272
00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:30,839
Speaker 6: open with his line.

273
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,000
Speaker 4: It did like, what do you guys think of the

274
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 4: Titans defense, because I'm looking at their numbers and they

275
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 4: held Wats into twelve yards. Yeah, last week they held

276
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,439
Speaker 4: Josh Allen eighteen arrowing. In the season, they held Watts

277
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:48,400
Speaker 4: into twenty six, which so they had Jackson at fifty one.

278
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah in week eleven.

279
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,120
Speaker 7: Yeah, they don't generate pressure. So maybe he doesn't create

280
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,679
Speaker 7: everyone's open doesn't It doesn't.

281
00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:01,120
Speaker 5: Create a break the play and you know, scramble outside

282
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,000
Speaker 5: of the pocket run. So that's a good point, but

283
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,960
Speaker 5: I think they'll regress in that category this week.

284
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,200
Speaker 4: I'm gonna parlay the Lamar Jackson rushing under with the

285
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,600
Speaker 4: des Bryant reception over there.

286
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:17,920
Speaker 6: You go, okay, if there's even a line for him,

287
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:22,000
Speaker 6: right right, Miles boaking whatever bum they throw out there.

288
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:23,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right.

289
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 6: Let's look at the running backs at the top of

290
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 6: our rankings. Derrick Henry, I mean, no surprise, the big

291
00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 6: dog number one, Jonathan Taylor we have ranked number two,

292
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:37,120
Speaker 6: and then David Montgomery number three. One player to keep

293
00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 6: an eye on Alvin Kamara, who is on the COVID list,

294
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,600
Speaker 6: but it looks like he will be eligible to come

295
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,200
Speaker 6: off of the COVID list for the game on Sunday,

296
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 6: so I'm imagining obviously if that happens, we will be

297
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 6: adjusting our rankings there. So Kamara is someone to keep

298
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,400
Speaker 6: in mind. And Sean Payton has already said no surprise

299
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 6: here that he would have no hesitat about playing Alvin Kamara,

300
00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,240
Speaker 6: even if he hasn't practiced so kind of reading between

301
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,280
Speaker 6: the lines, I think it's likelier than not that Kamara

302
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 6: ends up playing this week. Sean, who are you relatively

303
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,240
Speaker 6: high on for wild Card weekend?

304
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,280
Speaker 5: Well, first off, I think it's gonna be hard to

305
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,080
Speaker 5: fade Jonathan Taylor this week He's seventy nine hundred, which

306
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,920
Speaker 5: puts him in this weird tier all by himself. I

307
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 5: think he's definitely worth that price. He's averaged one hundred

308
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,680
Speaker 5: and forty yards and one point eight touchdowns on the

309
00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,960
Speaker 5: ground over the last four games. I wouldn't worry too

310
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 5: much about this plus six point five spread. I think

311
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 5: the Colts definitely keep it close enough to keep Taylor

312
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,160
Speaker 5: involved in the run game, and you know, it was

313
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 5: encouraging to see he ran a route on sixty percent

314
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,160
Speaker 5: of dropbacks, so I think if it does get into

315
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,200
Speaker 5: more of a pass heavy game script, he could see

316
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 5: more passing work. Obviously they have Nike and Hines, but

317
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 5: I think the underlying usage does indicate that Taylor could

318
00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,800
Speaker 5: you know, see three to four catches if the game's

319
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 5: cred flips on them. And then Cam Akers at fifty

320
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,120
Speaker 5: one hundred. You know, he played through the ankle injury

321
00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 5: last week, which is probably why he wasn't that effective,

322
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 5: but he did see twenty one carries and Malcolm Brown

323
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 5: was more of just a change of pace back. You know,

324
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,840
Speaker 5: Acres also caught four passes on just forty percent routes run,

325
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,000
Speaker 5: an indication that maybe John Wolford is more likely to

326
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 5: dump it off to him than say, Jared Goff, So

327
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:26,600
Speaker 5: that was encouraging to see. And just that fifty one

328
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,680
Speaker 5: hundred for a six game slate. To get a warhorse

329
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:32,120
Speaker 5: back like that at that price, that's gonna be hard

330
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:34,280
Speaker 5: to pass up. So we'll have to monitor his ankle

331
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,240
Speaker 5: injury throughout the week, but I can't imagine him being

332
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,200
Speaker 5: in a war shape than he was this week, so

333
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 5: I'll probably have quite a bit of Acres as well.

334
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: Sean.

335
00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 6: At this point, are you assuming that Darryl Henderson is

336
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:46,680
Speaker 6: still out for Wildcard weekend?

337
00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:49,760
Speaker 5: No, I'm not assuming he's out, but it has been

338
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 5: clear that even when all three backs are healthy that

339
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 5: cam Akers sort of is the warkhorse back, so that's

340
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 5: factoring into it.

341
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 7: But yeah, we'll have to see.

342
00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 5: With Daryl Hunters, I'm not sure what the lightest is

343
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 5: on him, but it seems like, you know, Acres is

344
00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 5: the guy even when all three are healthy.

345
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:10,440
Speaker 6: Okay, So with you there on Acres, and very much

346
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 6: with you on Jonathan Taylor, who has just been amazing

347
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 6: for the past six weeks or so. Negative situation as

348
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 6: a road underdog of seven ish points, so it doesn't

349
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:23,919
Speaker 6: look like a great spot, but I agree with you.

350
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 6: I think it's going to be hard to avoid him,

351
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 6: and he has a pretty good matchup against the Bills

352
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,760
Speaker 6: her number thirty two in PFF run defense grade. So

353
00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 6: even though he's a road dog, I still don't think

354
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 6: it's actually all that bad of a situation for him.

355
00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:41,240
Speaker 6: And as you said, he's improved dramatically as a receiver,

356
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,960
Speaker 6: or it's not even as so much that he's improved,

357
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,119
Speaker 6: it's just that he was better entering the league as

358
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,119
Speaker 6: a receiver than I think anyone expected him to be

359
00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,560
Speaker 6: coming out of Wisconsin. So even if it is a

360
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 6: situation where the Colts get behind, I think Taylor is

361
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,960
Speaker 6: good enough in the receiving game to stay on the field.

362
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,520
Speaker 6: So I am with you on Acres and very much

363
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,600
Speaker 6: with you on Jonathan Taylor, Raybond.

364
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:01,159
Speaker 2: Who do you like?

365
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 3: So for me, it's JK. Dobbins.

366
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,320
Speaker 4: You look at Tennessee and you know, I mean, maybe

367
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 4: this correlates with you know, being thinking Lamar and Knight

368
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,119
Speaker 4: might not run as much. But regardless of what happens

369
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,919
Speaker 4: with Lamar, you look at Tennessee to close out the season,

370
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 4: they in the last three weeks to running backs. They

371
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,840
Speaker 4: gave up three hundred and ninety two yards on sixty

372
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:24,200
Speaker 4: six carries. That's five point nine yards per carry, five

373
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,280
Speaker 4: touchdowns over that span.

374
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:26,760
Speaker 3: And this is coming in three games.

375
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 4: You know, they gave up AJ Dillon, your guy, both

376
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 4: of your guys breakout, breakout performance.

377
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 3: A couple of weeks ago.

378
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,960
Speaker 4: David Johnson even averaged five plus six yards of carry

379
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:42,119
Speaker 4: against them. I mean, this Titans defense is is not good.

380
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,560
Speaker 4: And you know JK. Dobbins, we saw the long run

381
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 4: last week. He's been the weed back for pretty much,

382
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:50,239
Speaker 4: you know, the second half of the season. So I

383
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 4: really like Dobbins as that kind of running back that

384
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 4: you know, he's not in the you know, he's not

385
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 4: amongst these studs necessarily, but he's right like kind of

386
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 4: under So I think that's the guy.

387
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:02,640
Speaker 3: If you're looking to fade.

388
00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 4: Taylor or Montgomery or even Nick Chubb, I think Dobbyin

389
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 4: is clearly the guy.

390
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:08,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

391
00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 6: I mean, as you say, the Titans are so bad

392
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 6: on defense that they're basically making every running back they

393
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 6: face look like Derrick Henry, which is the ultimate embarrassment. Sean,

394
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 6: who are you low on at the running ball position?

395
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,800
Speaker 5: This is This is great because this is the rare

396
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 5: time me and Raybond disagree. But I'm low on JK. Dobbins,

397
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,679
Speaker 5: not necessarily because they disagree with anything that Raybond said.

398
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 5: But his price at sixty six hundred, I mean he's

399
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 5: going to have to keep up this touchdown pace. You know,

400
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 5: he's scored in six great straight games, which went surprising.

401
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 5: If he does score this week, but you know, on

402
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:45,959
Speaker 5: a six game slate, we're gonna have to fade some

403
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 5: running backs. So the guy I'm going to be fading

404
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 5: is Dobbins. Just his lack of passing usage makes it

405
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 5: really hard for him to overcome a touchdown less game.

406
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 7: So that's what I'm.

407
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 5: Angling for here, is we just see you know, a

408
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 5: twelve carry for DR game, no touchdowns, no receptions. That's

409
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 5: what I'm rooting for here, and I think we can

410
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,280
Speaker 5: get that from Dobbins if luck goes my way. But

411
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,959
Speaker 5: you know, having said that, his stock is way up

412
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 5: for twenty twenty one, I could see him being you know,

413
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 5: top ten back next year, depending on how this running

414
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 5: back situation shapes up for the Ravens. But I love

415
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,959
Speaker 5: his talent, it's just that sixty six hundred on a

416
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 5: full PPR sete like DK, sign me up for a

417
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 5: fade this week?

418
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,360
Speaker 6: And who would have expected that Gus Edwards, of all

419
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 6: of the backs would have been the guy who ended

420
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 6: up being like the receiver in the back.

421
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 2: Would not really respect to that at all?

422
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,400
Speaker 4: Wait, got jam Dobbins leaves him in routes run every

423
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 4: week like a running back though, Like.

424
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I agree, but he has been a lock

425
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,399
Speaker 5: for one or two catches for some time now, which

426
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,280
Speaker 5: it is even more bizarre because like you said, Dobbins

427
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 5: is running the roads.

428
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 4: This is this is rhem most twenty twenty one. I'm

429
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 4: telling you guys, this is JK. Dobbins is Rhemos.

430
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 2: Is that a good thing? Yeah?

431
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, like he most are going into the postseason

432
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 4: last year, remember just okay?

433
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so carries eights and a touchdown every game.

434
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 6: That's this is okay? Okay, So yeah I was I

435
00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 6: was thinking of just Raheem Moster this year.

436
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 2: What didn't happen?

437
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 4: No, I would never do that, I know, I know

438
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 4: your affection for Jeff Lows.

439
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: Yeah of course, okay.

440
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:26,719
Speaker 8: Uh.

441
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 6: The guy I am relatively low on is James Connor.

442
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,679
Speaker 6: Uh a home favorite, So in theory, that should be

443
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 6: a good situation. But Connor is really slowed down in

444
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 6: the second half of the season. He's just not getting

445
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,359
Speaker 6: as much work and facing the Browns, a divisional rival

446
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 6: for the third time this year. I think that makes

447
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 6: it kind of tough. So I am fading, just full

448
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 6: fade James Connor. I think the only way he does

449
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 6: something good is if he sort of lucks his way

450
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 6: into a lot of targets, or is if he finds

451
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 6: the end zone, and that could happen. But at this point,

452
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 6: I think there are enough other runners on the team

453
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:04,919
Speaker 6: who I would say, like are demanding work but like

454
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 6: could find their way into work that it's just really

455
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 6: not worth the risk with James Connor, Raybond, who are

456
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 6: you low on?

457
00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, get ready for this, guys, cam Akers and Jonathan Taylor,

458
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 4: like so then this is like a weird time.

459
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 3: I guess we disagree.

460
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 4: But so my issue with Taylor is that I do

461
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: think he's over priced, and I think when you look

462
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 4: at the Bills, I think there is a pretty good

463
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 4: chance of the Colts getting behind the Bills of US

464
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 4: once over the past ten weeks, and it came on

465
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 4: that Hail Mary to Arizona. So I think there's a

466
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 4: decent chance that we see Taylor fall behind. And even

467
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 4: though Taylor has been, you know, playing better in the

468
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 4: passing game, there's still no guarantee that, you know, we

469
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 4: don't see a lot of nim highs if they're in

470
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 4: passing formation every single down early in the game. I

471
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 4: also don't trust Philip Rivers. And you look at at

472
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 4: Taylor and you know, two hundred and fifty three yards

473
00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 4: against the Jacksonville Jaguars, one hundred and fifty yards against

474
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 4: the Raiders, eighty three yards against the Texans over the

475
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 4: last four weeks. And he played the Texans twice and

476
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 4: then the Titans before that, so like there's excuse me,

477
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 4: and then the Packers before that.

478
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 3: So like just a bevy of terrible run defenses.

479
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 4: I think Buffalo has improved a little bit, even though

480
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 4: their PFF great is bad and that game script is

481
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 4: just it's just kind of scary for me. So I

482
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 4: think he I think he's a guy that you fade

483
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 4: with a guy with a better matchup, and.

484
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 3: Then Cam and Akers.

485
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 4: I mean, he carried twenty one times for thirty four

486
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 4: yards last week. I don't know if he's healthy and

487
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 4: I don't know if, uh if Wolferd is that quarterback. Yes,

488
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 4: camp Akers could be healthier, but you're just gonna have

489
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 4: defenses playing. I'm so close to the line of scrimmage,

490
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 4: both because you know Wolford is gonna run the ball

491
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 4: as well. But they're just not a deep passing game

492
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 4: element to the Rams, and that was true before Jared

493
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 4: Goka hurt. So I just think that you're gonna see

494
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 4: a lot of crowded boxes and I think it's just,

495
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 4: you know, the price kind of attempting. But as an

496
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 4: underdog against Seattle who finally figured out the Rams, because

497
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 4: the Rams had beat Seattle I think it was five

498
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 4: out of six coming into that last game. I just

499
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 4: think it's a worrysome proposition for the for the Rams.

500
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 4: Seattle held them, you know to what single digits in

501
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 4: the last game. I just think it's his touchdown upside.

502
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 4: Is his touchdown equities pretty well and the potential for

503
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 4: a disaster at high ownership given his price is pretty high.

504
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 9: Hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I want

505
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 9: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network.

506
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 9: Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

507
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: Welcome to you Lockdown forty nine ers.

508
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: You were locked on of the Dallas marriage. Well came

509
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 3: everybody to the Locked On Lakers podcast.

510
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 2: Let's Go.

511
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 9: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

512
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 9: know your team better than anyone and give you the

513
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,160
Speaker 9: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

514
00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 9: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

515
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 2: Okay, Sean give us the running back prop.

516
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 6: By the way, I should say, I think it's really

517
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:09,119
Speaker 6: interesting that Raybond and Sean, you guys are totally diametrically

518
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 6: opposed on who you're playing and who you're fading this week.

519
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 6: I feel like we need to come up with some

520
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 6: sort of bet just around that. But in the meantime, Sean,

521
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 6: give us the running back prop.

522
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's certainly a fine line between our differences. I

523
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 5: feel like we're close, but yet so far.

524
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:28,640
Speaker 7: So I'm going to keep.

525
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 5: Up this annual tradition of us trying to figure out

526
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 5: what the hell we should project Derek Henry Henry's rushing

527
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 5: yards at. So I'll have the honors of trying to

528
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 5: come up with.

529
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 7: A number here.

530
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 5: I'm going to open the line at one nineteen and

531
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 5: a half rushing yards.

532
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 6: What do you guys, I will go over like he

533
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 6: could he could get four yards to carry, he could

534
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 6: get four yards.

535
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 4: Like, I'm just not even It's just like the only

536
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 4: thing that Derrick Henry is Dereck Henry. Like did you

537
00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:58,840
Speaker 4: see that play where he just kind of like the

538
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 4: guy barely kind of.

539
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:01,719
Speaker 3: Like the ball I drafted it.

540
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 4: He was like, honestly like, oh, I'm about get two

541
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty yards. Oh wait, oh I got to

542
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 4: get the ball. Like that's I don't see how. It's

543
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 4: just so scared of him because he has the explosive runs,

544
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 4: but he also has the volume. And I mean, I

545
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 4: do think there's a little bit of an element of

546
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 4: you know, I love Tanahan, and I think this offense

547
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 4: is explosive, but I think there's got to be some

548
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 4: elements of we have to protect our defense, so we

549
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 4: you know, as a tighten you have to run the

550
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 4: ball at a high volume because you don't want your

551
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: defense on the field for thirty five minutes of game time.

552
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,719
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Henry will get you know, approach

553
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 4: thirty carries and uh yeah, I think you'll go over

554
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:35,479
Speaker 4: to him.

555
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, Sean, you said, was it one hundred and nineteen

556
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 6: and a half or something like that.

557
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, I've already bumped it up to one thirty.

558
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 5: Go for it and get the old number.

559
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I obviously I'm on the over I

560
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 6: have this around one hundred and twenty five. So it's

561
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 6: not as if I think that original number is bad.

562
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 6: But at the same time, I just I feel so

563
00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,240
Speaker 6: ridiculous setting no projection that high, you know what I mean.

564
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 6: But like, at this point you have to, like, how

565
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 6: do you project Derrick Henry for anything under twenty carries,

566
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 6: and even twenty carries is too low, right, it needs

567
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 6: to be closer to like twenty four to twenty six carries,

568
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 6: you know, like in all realities.

569
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, you have to figure Yeah, they're done

570
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 5: mixing in McNichols and Foreman and Evan's like, they're done

571
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 5: with that. He's probably gonna get every touch where he

572
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 5: can breathe. I saw he had to take a little

573
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 5: bit of a breather last week in the middle of

574
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 5: his two hundred fifty yards, but they called the time

575
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 5: out so he came back in. So yeah, he'll probably

576
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 5: get one hundred percent of the carries this week.

577
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 6: All right, So Derrick Henry the old line one hundred

578
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 6: nineteen and a half, the new Sean corner line in

579
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 6: the in the one hundred and thirties, maybe you bump

580
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 6: that even even a little bit higher. So the wide

581
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 6: receivers at the top of our rankings, Stefan Diggs, AJ Brown,

582
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 6: DK metcalf Sean, who are you high on?

583
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 5: Well, I don't like the matchup, but I am high

584
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 5: on Corey Davis. That just because of his price at

585
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 5: forty eight hundred. I think he's way too cheap just

586
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 5: after you know, coming off a couple of bad games,

587
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 5: that's going to happen for certain receivers in this offense.

588
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 5: Just like we said, this is Derrick Henry's offense. But

589
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 5: you know this is a good time to just buy

590
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 5: the dip on him. I think he'll he'll spike back

591
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,959
Speaker 5: up to five to seven targets, So love him on

592
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 5: a smaller slate. And then the guy I really like.

593
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 5: I actually like all three Steelers wide receivers. We saw

594
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 5: last week just how weak this Browns defense is. I mean,

595
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 5: Mason Rudolph put up three hundred and fifteen yards against them,

596
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 5: and they weren't even trying. So I love investing in

597
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 5: as many Steelers receivers as I can this week, but

598
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 5: especially Deontay Johnson at six or two hundred. You know,

599
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 5: with him, he's left so many yards and points on

600
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 5: the field this year due to drops, but I think

601
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 5: he will regress to a more league average drop rate.

602
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 5: But his ability to get open is what makes him

603
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 5: special on why he's able to see so many targets.

604
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 5: So he's the guy I think is going to have

605
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 5: a huge playoff run here. So I love getting him

606
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 5: at sixty two hundred. Like I said, I think you

607
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 5: can make case for Juju and Chase Claypool. I think

608
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 5: the Steelers offense in general, I'll probably have quite a

609
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 5: few stacks this week just because his Browns defense is

610
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 5: one of the worst ones wildcard weekends, so I'm gonna

611
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 5: be looking to attack it.

612
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, the Browns did lose Olivier Vernon for the season

613
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 6: with an achilles tearshow they're going to be less effective

614
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 6: in the pass rush. And then Denzil Ward he's going

615
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 6: to be someone to.

616
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 2: Keep an eye on.

617
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 6: He was out last week because of I believe a

618
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 6: positive COVID test. He might be able to return this week,

619
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 6: so that is something to keep an eye on, an

620
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 6: eye on number one cornerback for the Browns.

621
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 2: If he's there.

622
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 6: I don't want to say it's a totally different offense, sorry,

623
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 6: a totally different defense, but he does improve the defense dramatically,

624
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 6: especially because he does shadow. They have used him in

625
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 6: shadow coverage recently. But if he's out, Sean, I very

626
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 6: much agree with you. The Steelers wide receivers are intriguing,

627
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 6: and honestly, even if Denzil Award is in probably still

628
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 6: interested in the Steelers. You mentioned Corey Davis, I similarly

629
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 6: am high on AJ Brown. It's a tough matchup. I

630
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 6: think cornerback Jimmy Smith is probably going to return from

631
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 6: injury this week for the Ravens, but Brown is just

632
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 6: so dominant almost eleven hundred yards eleven touchdowns in fourteen

633
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 6: games over the past month. He has a thirty four

634
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 6: percent market share of targets. Like the Titans, when they're

635
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 6: not handing it off to Derrick Henry, they're pretty much

636
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 6: just funneling the ball to AJ Brown in the form

637
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 6: of targets. So even with a tough matchup, I do

638
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 6: think that AJ Brown has a ton of upside in

639
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 6: a game that I think will be pretty high scoring

640
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 6: and we'll see the Titans need to score points. Raybawn,

641
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 6: who are you high on?

642
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, I love the calls on the on the

643
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 4: Steelers receivers. I think Chase Claypool especially. You know, he

644
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 4: was talking about last week how Mike Tomlin kind of

645
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 4: scaled the snaps back over the second half of the

646
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 4: year to protect against the rookie wall. But even last

647
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 4: week we saw him play a high amount of snaps

648
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 4: and just keep making crazy plays.

649
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 3: So I think they unwish him in this game and that.

650
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 4: Can really take advantage of the Browns weaknesses on defense.

651
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 4: And then another guy is Mark Ease Brown Marquise Brown

652
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 4: for the Ravens going against that Titans defense. You know,

653
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 4: we saw them get just destroyed by Brandon Cooks, a

654
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 4: similar type of player last week. And this type of defense,

655
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 4: they don't get pressure, and I think Lamar Jackson is

656
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 4: going to be able to hang in the pocket. And

657
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 4: that's really the issue with with you know, Ravens receivers

658
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 4: Andrews Brown is that you know, anytime Mark Jackson feels pressure,

659
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 4: he's gonna run. They don't pass a ton, So I

660
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 4: think in this game you have Tennessee who can't cover

661
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: and can't generate pressure.

662
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: I think, and can but can score points.

663
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: On the other side, I think it's a great spot

664
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 4: for Markui's Brown to put up one of his you know,

665
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 4: one hundred yard games and love him.

666
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 3: At fifty four hundred.

667
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: Sean, who are you low on?

668
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 7: Well, I think it might go without saying.

669
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 5: But Gabriel Davis at four K, it's unclear if Cole

670
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 5: Beasley will be back. I assume he will, but you know,

671
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 5: Davis stood did a wonderful job filling in for John Brown.

672
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 5: But John Brown's back, so you know he's gonna see

673
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 5: a dip in playing time. Last week he was able to,

674
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 5: you know, put up a two catch for one hundred

675
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 5: and seven yard line, but that that had to do

676
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 5: with Beasley being out. So I don't know how how

677
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 5: much they're going to reduce his snaps, but it's gonna

678
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 5: be enough for me to fade at four K if

679
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 5: both Brown and you know Beasley are active this week,

680
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 5: and then Terry McLaurin at sixty three hundred. McLaurin is

681
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 5: usually able to overcome horrible QB play, but right now

682
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 5: with his ankle injury, he's playing a little bit less

683
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 5: than one hundred percent. And Alex Smith, does you know

684
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 5: Rob Mclaurin's ceiling. It's pretty clear that you know, Smith

685
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,840
Speaker 5: tends to favor guys like j D. McKissick and Logan Thomas.

686
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 5: So Terry McLaurin is just not worth his price point,

687
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 5: which is unfortunate because he is one of the most

688
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 5: talented receivers in the game. But I just can't spend

689
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 5: up this much with the Ox Smith under center.

690
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the Buccaneers, even if number one cornerback Carlton

691
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 6: Davis doesn't play, they're still pretty strong against the pass.

692
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 6: Jamel Dean on his own, the number two cornerback, he's

693
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 6: having a pretty good year and I think he would

694
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 6: match up against Terry McLaurin for most of the game.

695
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 6: So for all the reasons that you highlighted there, and

696
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 6: then also just the matchup going against the Buccaneers, the

697
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 6: matchup is pretty unkind for Terry McLaurin as well. DK

698
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 6: metcalf is someone I am staying away from. And Sean

699
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 6: you mentioned earlier and talking about Russell Wilson, kind of

700
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 6: everything that goes into staying away from him, and I

701
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 6: think a lot of that applies to to DK Metcalf.

702
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 6: He's just not being targeted at the same the same

703
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 6: rate as he was in the first half of the season,

704
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 6: and also he's not being targeted as far downfield either.

705
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 6: And then now he has a tough matchup, so going

706
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,240
Speaker 6: against Jalen Ramsey and his two games this year against

707
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 6: the Rams, DK Metcalf has two receptions for twenty eight

708
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 6: yards on four targets and then six receptions for fifty

709
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 6: nine yards on eight targets, no touchdowns. And for two

710
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 6: years now we've seen Metcalf really meet his match when

711
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 6: he's facing bigger cornerbacks with above average athleticism. So obviously

712
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 6: he has a high ceiling because he's one of the

713
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,880
Speaker 6: most athletically dominant receivers in the game, But because of

714
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 6: the matchup going against Ramsey, who I think is the

715
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 6: best cornerback in the league, he also has a much

716
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 6: lower floor in this game. So he's someone I would

717
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 6: be staying away from. Raybon Who are you fading?

718
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally agree.

719
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 4: It's got to be Metcalf forty three and a half

720
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 4: yards the game against the Rams Seattle talked about this

721
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: last week on convinced me they're just not throwing the

722
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 4: ball as much on early downs a I don't know

723
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 4: if that. I don't know if that changes against the Rams, especially,

724
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 4: you know, giving the Rams are a little bit banged

725
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 4: up on offense. So it's just not one of those

726
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 4: kind of games where you expect Dk Metcalf to go off.

727
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 4: And I think part of it is not even just

728
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 4: the matchup or the decreased passing. It's the improvement of

729
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 4: Seattle's defense, right because earlier in the year they were

730
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 4: giving up four five hundred yards thirty points to everyone,

731
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 4: and now you look at Seattle and they're holding teams

732
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 4: to believe it's about under twenty points per game since

733
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 4: we ten. So that's just that just changes the entire

734
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 4: game script for the passing game for Seattle.

735
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, Dk Metcalf for.

736
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 2: Me, Sean, give us the wide receiver prop.

737
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:46,400
Speaker 5: Let's go with Michael Thomas and his potential return against

738
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 5: the Bears. Right now, I have his over under at

739
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 5: seventy and a half, and obviously that you know, if

740
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 5: we have to factor and if Alvin mcmaro will turn

741
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 5: all these other things, but right now, I have it

742
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 5: at seventy and a half.

743
00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 2: I will take the under.

744
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 6: I haven't even done a projection for Michael Thomas yet

745
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 6: because I'm lazy and I'm not one hundred percent sure

746
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 6: that he's returning, so I'm not going to make the

747
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 6: projection until we have a little more certainty. Sean, what

748
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 6: do you think the odds are that he plays this week?

749
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 7: I have no idea I would. I would put it

750
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 7: over a ninety percent.

751
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 5: I think he thinks so very clear that he's going

752
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,760
Speaker 5: to play, and I think that was the planel along,

753
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 5: but I can't say one hundred percent.

754
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 6: Okay, so I need to go back in here make

755
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,719
Speaker 6: a projection for him. But in the meantime, I'm still

756
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 6: taking the under on the line that you mentioned. There

757
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 6: a tough matchup against the Bears, who I think also

758
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 6: they've been without two starting cornerbacks for the past couple

759
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 6: of weeks. I think at least one of those guys

760
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 6: will probably return, maybe both of them, and I think

761
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 6: Alvin Kamara will also return, So I think just fewer

762
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,320
Speaker 6: targets to be going towards Michael Thomas.

763
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 4: That's a good line, because I don't I do think

764
00:36:57,760 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 4: he'll get targeted heavily.

765
00:36:58,760 --> 00:36:59,479
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go over.

766
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 4: You look at what Michael Thomas has done in the postseason.

767
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 4: He's got He's had three games over that number, and

768
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 4: one game right at seventy and then uh one, one

769
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 4: game at thirty six. But I just think that every

770
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 4: time we see Michael Thomas in the lineup in a

771
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 4: key situation, he's gonna get he's gonna overwhelming, we get

772
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 4: the lead and targets so and with Drew Brees throwing

773
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 4: the football, it's totally different from like, you know, Taysom Hill.

774
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,880
Speaker 4: So you know, Breeze could complete twenty five to thirty

775
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 4: passes per game. Ten of those could easily go to Thomas,

776
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 4: even if he's not one hundred percent.

777
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'll go over.

778
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 5: I feel like Thomas has played way better with Taysom

779
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 5: and the lad Yeah, I mean, with Breeze and line up,

780
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 5: he's felt like a wide receiver too. But those four

781
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 5: Taysom Hill starts, I mean, Michael Thomas was the top

782
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 5: five wide receiver. So it's interesting to think of. But

783
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 5: does Drew Brees almost hurt his guy right now or

784
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 5: is that kind of just random?

785
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 4: I mean, it probably is considering He's caught like what

786
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:59,720
Speaker 4: like one hundred fifty ball averaging.

787
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,880
Speaker 5: Like eight catches. Game of Taysom Hill is insane. The massive,

788
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,440
Speaker 5: massive target share. He wasn't even looking at other receivers,

789
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 5: So I think it could just be an anomaly. But yeah,

790
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 5: it's interesting to think of.

791
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 6: All right, let's talk about the the tight ends and

792
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 6: and I mean tight ends. It's always just it feels

793
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 6: like a naked position in general. And then now obviously

794
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 6: no Kiddle, no Kelsey because the Chiefs are on by

795
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 6: the second week with no Kelsey. So it's just it's

796
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 6: it's a sad it's a sad position. We have Mark

797
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 6: Andrews at the top, Logan Thomas and Jared Cook number three,

798
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 6: but you know a big gap between Mark Andrews in

799
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 6: basically everyone else. Sean, who are you high on this week?

800
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, like you said, no no Kelsey, Kittle or Waller.

801
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 5: So you know, Mark Andrews sticks out a ton at

802
00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 5: only fifty two hundred. I think he's in a smash

803
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 5: spot here with that pricing. But you always take this guy.

804
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 5: I'm gonna tick him this week. It's cole Comet at

805
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 5: three k. You know, this week he feels like a

806
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 5: free square if you want to spend down at tight end.

807
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 5: The Saints are a very good defense, but they can

808
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 5: be prone to some pretty good games to posing tight end.

809
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 5: So Comets he's been holding pretty steady around a seventy

810
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 5: five percent routes run rate. He finally saw a huge

811
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 5: target shair last week with eight. This could be a

812
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 5: pass heavy game script, so I love him here. It's

813
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 5: worth monitoring Darnell Mooney, who saw thirteen targets last last week.

814
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 5: He looks like he's gonna be iffy. You have to

815
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 5: imagine if he's out, that could just mean an extra

816
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 5: couple targets for Comet as well. So just at three K,

817
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 5: he just has a really really high floor for a

818
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 5: tight end at that price range.

819
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 7: And you know, I.

820
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 5: Think he's due for a touchdown, so he has a

821
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 5: pretty high ceiling as well. So if you're if you're

822
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 5: not gonna take Mark Andrews at his price, I think

823
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 5: you gotta go Comet here.

824
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, no surprise, I agree with you. Kmet's

825
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 6: the guy at my my BFF, the guy I talk

826
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 6: about every week in the spot, and you know you

827
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 6: outlined it perfectly. Yeah, Mooney is uncertain to play this week,

828
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 6: and you know, we have a tight end who's emerging,

829
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 6: who already has an eighteen percent target share on the

830
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 6: team over the past month, and if Mooney is out,

831
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 6: I would expect that to increase. He's playing over ninety

832
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 6: percent of the snaps, has fourteen targets over the past

833
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 6: two weeks, playing indoors and what could be a high

834
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,560
Speaker 6: scoring environment as a big dog, So you would think

835
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 6: that he may be benefits from a pass heavy game

836
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 6: script one hundred percent with you on Cole Comet, if

837
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 6: you are not paying up Comet, I think is probably

838
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 6: the guy that you you target when you are paying

839
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:44,840
Speaker 6: down ray On. It seems like you might disagree.

840
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, I gotta go against you guys here for one,

841
00:40:49,239 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 4: New Orleans is number two in DVOA against tight ends.

842
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 4: They've been excellent against the position. And look at commit

843
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 4: I mean we and listen, I've been on commit you,

844
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 4: but you look at as many since he's been running

845
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 4: and he hasn't really done much with them over these

846
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 4: past few weeks. And Jimmy Graham, you know a couple

847
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 4: of those games has been the more productive guy. I

848
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 4: just don't know if we're gonna get that game against

849
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,160
Speaker 4: the New Orleans number two tight end defense, I would

850
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 4: say that if you're looking to pay down, I think

851
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 4: the play is John new Smith. Last week he ran

852
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 4: a route on twenty five or thirty one dropbacks.

853
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 3: That's eighty one percent.

854
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 4: He's been in seventy or greater over these past few weeks,

855
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 4: where he was usually in the sixties or fifties for

856
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 4: most of the season. In a must win game, I

857
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 4: think John who just because of the touchdown equity you

858
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 4: get with Ryan Tannehill, the total for the game, you

859
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 4: know which is which is which is the highest on

860
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,120
Speaker 4: the slate. We know tight ends are a craft shoot, period,

861
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 4: so I just think you go with the guy that's

862
00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 4: running routes for a team you expect to score a.

863
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 3: Lot of points. And he's too.

864
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 4: He's only two hundred dollars more on DraftKings at thirty

865
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 4: two hundred than then can met, So I really like

866
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 4: him in that low price range. But in terms of

867
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 4: the high end guys, I think I think Andrews and

868
00:41:57,880 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 4: Thomas are both in a tier of themselves. I don't

869
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 4: don't even think Andrews has that much separation because you

870
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 4: look at Andrews the Titans are number thirty two in

871
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 4: DVOA against tight ends, so that's obviously a great matchup.

872
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 4: We don't expect much pressure. We don't expect him to

873
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 4: have to check or do anything of that nature. He's

874
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 4: just gonna straight run routes. And then Logan Thomas. I

875
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 4: mean you mentioned, you know the Bucks cornerbacks still have

876
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 4: are still pretty good. I think they focus on Terry

877
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 4: McLaurin and Logan Thomas has been that guy who made

878
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 4: a great touchdown catch last week. And you have a

879
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:28,919
Speaker 4: great match up here to Tampa Bay number twenty five

880
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 4: and DVOA against tight ends versus number one. While receivers

881
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 4: are six, number two, is are twenty two, number three,

882
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 4: others they're one, and running backs they're six, So tight

883
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 4: ends is clearly.

884
00:42:40,320 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: Their weakest position to defense.

885
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 4: So I love Thomas and Andrews, but I go with

886
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 4: John to on the low one.

887
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 8: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

888
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 8: bet MGM Sports are offering Action Network podcast listeners a

889
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,879
Speaker 8: great sign up offer. Just make your first deposit using

890
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 8: the bonus code Action Pod and receive one hundred percent

891
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:02,919
Speaker 8: deposit match up.

892
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 2: To five hundred dollars.

893
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 8: They've got parlay, bonus payouts, live betting markets, daily odds boosts,

894
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 8: all sorts of great stuff. So download the betmgm app

895
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 8: today or visit betmgm dot com to sign up and

896
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 8: use the code action pod to double your bank role

897
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 8: with one hundred percent deposit match up to five hundred dollars.

898
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 8: As a reminder, you must be twenty one or older

899
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 8: and physically located in the Great States of Colorado, Indiana,

900
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 8: New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling

901
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 8: problem called one eight hundred five two two forty seven

902
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 8: hundred in Colorado and Nevada, one eight hundred gambler in

903
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 8: New Jersey and West Virginia, or one eight hundred and

904
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 8: niney with it in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada.

905
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 8: And now back to the.

906
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 6: Show, Raybond. You you mentioned Logan Thomas here. I don't

907
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 6: know I have either of you guys seen Brandon Thorne.

908
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 6: You know, kind of offensive line, defensive line, analytical expert

909
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 6: when it just comes to analyzing the play there, he

910
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 6: tweeted out something about Low and Thomas where Logan Thomas

911
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 6: chips a pass rusher who falls down and knocks over

912
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 6: another pass rusher and then that guy knocks out a

913
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,720
Speaker 6: third pass rusher, like Logan Thomas's chip took out literally

914
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 6: three defensive players and then he went out and ran

915
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 6: her out and caught the ball and got a first down.

916
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 2: Like like play of the game.

917
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 6: You know, very subtle, But yeah, Logan Thomas, I kind

918
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 6: of want to back up for a second and get

919
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,720
Speaker 6: bigger picture because you know, two years ago, Darren Waller

920
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 6: was someone who is getting some hype in the preseason

921
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 6: as a guy who might come out of nowhere at

922
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 6: the tight end position, and he certainly did, and Logan

923
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 6: Thomas was kind of that guy this year, not to

924
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,080
Speaker 6: the same extent, and you know, so he wasn't hyped

925
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 6: as much and obviously he hasn't done this year what

926
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,840
Speaker 6: Darren Waller did last year. But if there is a

927
00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 6: Darren Waller to this season, I think it probably is

928
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,359
Speaker 6: Logan Thomas, just in terms of a guy who's kind

929
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 6: of come out of nowhere, especially kind of think you know,

930
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 6: a guy who you know transitioned into the tight end position.

931
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 2: What do you guys.

932
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 6: Think of Logan Thomas and what he's actually done, Like

933
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 6: is he a good player? Is is this projectable to

934
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 6: the future. What do you think we see out of

935
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 6: Logan Thomas in fantasy for twenty twenty one?

936
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 7: Sean, Yeah, absolutely.

937
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 5: You know, he's going to turn thirty next year, so

938
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 5: in dynasty leagues, I wouldn't give up the farm for him,

939
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 5: but you know, I think he'll be pretty solid going forward.

940
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 5: One of the most consistent things with him is just

941
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 5: his routes run. You know, he's usually running a ruts

942
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 5: run rate at like ninety five hundred percent every week,

943
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 5: which is just mass. It gives him a massive, massive floor.

944
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 5: So that's that's been good to see. But yeah, I

945
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 5: think Alex Smith as quarterback tends to help. Like I

946
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,759
Speaker 5: mentioned earlier, he tends to tireet guys like McKusick and

947
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 5: Logan Thomas at a hire as opposed to guy like

948
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,720
Speaker 5: Terry McLaurin. So I think just all the factors lined

949
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 5: up for Thomas this year. Next year, I think he'll

950
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 5: probably be a low end tight end one, but we'll

951
00:46:01,840 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 5: kind of have to see how things sort out, but

952
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 5: certainly for the next couple of seasons he should be

953
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 5: a tight end one caliber kind of guy.

954
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 2: Raymond, what do you think about Logan Thomas I totally agree.

955
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 3: I think I think he's a good football player.

956
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 4: You know, it's kind of crazy to think because he

957
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 4: made a position switch, but as you mentioned, we've seen

958
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 4: that with Waller and Thomas. I think, you know, he's

959
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 4: he's kind of mastered the full spectrum of playing a

960
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: tight end position. I think it was a couple of

961
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 4: weeks ago. I believe it was Troy Aikman. It might

962
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 4: have been somebody else, but it was just kind of

963
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,439
Speaker 4: gushing about how good a player Logan Thomas had become,

964
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:36,960
Speaker 4: and it was like to the point it was weird

965
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 4: because Thomas hadn't done anything in the game yet. But no,

966
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 4: he's I think the only thing holding him back really

967
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 4: at this point is how good is Washington's defense going

968
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 4: to be going forward? Because this is a guy that

969
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,760
Speaker 4: you know, he's running around on one hundred, like almost

970
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 4: one hundred percent of the snaps, and so it really

971
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 4: just comes down to, Okay, how many routes is Washington

972
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 4: going to have available? Because this this guy is gonna play,

973
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 4: he's gonna make he's making plays, he's making plays in

974
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 4: the red zone. He's showing he can be a high

975
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 4: volume receiver, and they're not they don't have to take.

976
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 3: Him out for blocking purposes. So I really do like him.

977
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 4: I hope that you know, Washington doesn't get like this

978
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 4: super elite Pittsburgh style of defense to where they don't

979
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 4: throw the ball for the next couple of years. But yeah,

980
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 4: as a player, I think, yeah, I think low and

981
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 4: tight end one is probably his floor. And if Washington's

982
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 4: defense goes bad, he can definitely put up a top

983
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 4: five season.

984
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 6: Okay, Raymond, Earlier you talked about Comet and being low

985
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,839
Speaker 6: on him. Sean, who is a tight end that you

986
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:38,919
Speaker 6: are low on this week?

987
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 5: I'm low on Jared Cook this week, especially at his

988
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 5: price point forty six hundred.

989
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 7: Now.

990
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 5: He's been the tight end five over the final five

991
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 5: weeks of the season, but you know that's going to

992
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:54,880
Speaker 5: change with Michael Thomas potentially coming back, Alvin Kamara as well,

993
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:57,360
Speaker 5: so I think his his target share is going to

994
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 5: go way down. He's going to become way more touchdown dependent.

995
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 5: So he's a guy that you know, he makes sense

996
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 5: in GBPS if you want to just take a flyer

997
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 5: based on upside, he certainly still possesses that upside. But

998
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 5: the guy that we were just talking about Logan Thomas

999
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 5: is just a few hundred dollars more than Jared Cook.

1000
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 5: So in any kind of cash game format, I would

1001
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 5: lean towards Logan Thomas. But just with you know, Michael

1002
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 5: Thomas and Alvin Karra coming back this week, Jared Cook

1003
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 5: is a full fade for me here.

1004
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 6: Okay, I am low on Austin Hooper, and by the way, Sean,

1005
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 6: I agree with you on Jared Cook. I'm low on

1006
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 6: Austin Hooper. I have him ranked number seven going against

1007
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 6: the Steelers, who are number one in pass defense DVOA

1008
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:39,560
Speaker 6: against tight ends, and with all the other options on

1009
00:48:39,640 --> 00:48:41,279
Speaker 6: the team, I don't think there's really much of a

1010
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 6: need to pepper Hooper with targets. An outdoors game between

1011
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:49,400
Speaker 6: divisional rivals might be a lower scoring game. So off

1012
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 6: of Austin Hooper for wild Card weekend, Sean, give us

1013
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 6: the tight end prop.

1014
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 7: Let's go with Mark Andrews.

1015
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 5: I have him ranked really, really high, but I want

1016
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 5: to hear you guys thoughts on his receiving yards. You know,

1017
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:05,120
Speaker 5: he's been a lot more consistent this season in general,

1018
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 5: but especially since Nick.

1019
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:06,960
Speaker 7: Boyle went out.

1020
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 5: He's gone for over six five yards and four of

1021
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 5: the five games since Boyle's injury, so he has a

1022
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 5: pretty high floor. Now I have his receiving yards set

1023
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 5: at sixty three and a half yards.

1024
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: I'm on the over.

1025
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 6: Disgustingly, so on the over, like I'm I have him

1026
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:27,879
Speaker 6: at seventy seven and a half yards, which feels way

1027
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 6: too high. But he has a thirty what is it,

1028
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 6: a thirty eight percent target chair over the past four games.

1029
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 6: I mean, he's he's the number one receiver on that

1030
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 6: team right now, and it's it's really not even close.

1031
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 6: So yeah, I'm I'm taking the over there.

1032
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an over for me too.

1033
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 7: Number one.

1034
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 4: You look at his routes run per dropback twenty out

1035
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 4: of twenty four last week and ever since boy went out,

1036
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 4: you know, it's been in the low seventies or high eighties,

1037
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 4: and that was just something we haven't seen from Mark

1038
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,240
Speaker 4: Andrews pretty much his entire career. You know, he would usually.

1039
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 3: Top out in the mid seventies.

1040
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 4: So for him to be up there, that's why we're

1041
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 4: seeing this increased consistency, that's why we're seeing you know,

1042
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 4: more yarded So love him to have another big game.

1043
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 4: And then you throw in the fact that Tennessee is

1044
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 4: dead last in d v O A against the against

1045
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 4: the tight end position. And you look at their their

1046
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 4: receiving yards schedule adjusted per per game just to the

1047
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 4: normal tight end, they're giving up fifty you know, fifty four,

1048
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 4: you know, schedule adjusted. So Mark Andrews is one of

1049
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 4: the top guys, so that that easily can can get

1050
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 4: you know, another ten or fifteen yards to get over

1051
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:38,720
Speaker 4: that line.

1052
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I was wrong. I said thirty eight percent

1053
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 6: target share. It's thirty three percent target share over the

1054
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 6: past month from Mark Andrews, a team high thirty eight

1055
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 6: percent share of the air yards. So not just being targeted,

1056
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 6: but being targeted further downfield, which against a defense ravend

1057
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 6: that you pointed out has been really bad against Titans

1058
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 6: this year. I see a ton of upside for Andrews.

1059
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 6: So I'm taking the over there, Sean, given that Raybonn

1060
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 6: and I are both on the over, are you adjusting

1061
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 6: the line at all or are you sticking with it?

1062
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:12,879
Speaker 7: Yeah?

1063
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 5: I kind of set it up that I do like

1064
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 5: the over on that line. I was just curious where

1065
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 5: you guys are because I think Andrews sticks out at

1066
00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 5: his price. So if you guys are even higher. Maybe

1067
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 5: you guys are just way higher on Logan Thomas than

1068
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 5: I am, But I think where you guys have Andrews

1069
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 5: projected makes sense, and just you know, at his price point,

1070
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 5: he just seems like a free square for the slate.

1071
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,239
Speaker 4: Well, I mean so, I think earlier we were talking

1072
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 4: about like going towards Thomas over what was it Jared

1073
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 4: cook at at Cat, Like I wouldn't even touch Thomas

1074
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 4: and Cat. I think it has to be Mark Andrews

1075
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,399
Speaker 4: given that there's only three hundred different so I think

1076
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 4: there is like, like there's Logan Thomas is still in

1077
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 4: that tier, but it's almost like Andrews just has this

1078
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 4: higher he has a way higher ceiling for this specific match.

1079
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, maybe I should rephrase that I'm not used Logan

1080
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 5: Thomas and Cash. I should have said that Ka Cooker

1081
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 5: is basically the same price as Logan Thomas.

1082
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 4: That's yeah, yeah, yeah, no, yeah, yeah, that's.

1083
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 3: Agreed in itself.

1084
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:12,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, but in fairness, Mark Andrews is almost the same

1085
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 5: price as Logan Thomas, which is just as egregious. So

1086
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 5: just play Mark Andrews this week.

1087
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's good advice, that's good advice.

1088
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:23,320
Speaker 6: A play play Mark Andrews every week. That is actually

1089
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 6: until next week when Travis Kelsey returns. And then and

1090
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 6: then you play the King, all right, that is going

1091
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 6: to do it for the show. You can follow Sean,

1092
00:52:30,800 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 6: Chris and Me in the Action Network app at the

1093
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 6: Underscore Oddsmaker, Chris Ravon and Matt at the Oracle. Use

1094
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 6: the app to get real time odds and track your bets.

1095
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 6: For Bree, Please subscribe to and rate Interview the show,

1096
00:52:41,160 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 6: and listen and download on Spotify. See you again next episode.

1097
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 8: We're finished talking