1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:06,440 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:06,440 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: global economy to you. O Macron is super contagious. Any 3 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,320 Speaker 1: primary school teacher can tell you that. But it's not 4 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: as lethal as previous rounds of this virus, so surely 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: it's going to be a lot less damaging to the recovery. 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:20,799 Speaker 1: Only you don't need to be in lockdown for a 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: significant chunk of the economy to grind to a halt. 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:27,320 Speaker 1: You just need one in four workers to call in sick. 9 00:00:27,960 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: Today's show we Haven't on the ground report from Bloomberg 10 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: senior correspondent Shawn Donnan on the tidal wave of sick 11 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: days that's hitting the supply of mozzarella sticks, airline pilots, 12 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: and yoga pats. We also take some time to consider 13 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: President Emmanuel Makhorn, labeled the anti Trump when he swept 14 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: to power in France nearly five years ago. Now looking 15 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: a bit battle weary as he fights for reelection, but 16 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 1: things are going surprisingly well for the French economy. I 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: have a conversation with the French finance Minister, Bruno Lemaire 18 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:02,560 Speaker 1: in a few minutes. Hang on for that, but first, 19 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: for much of this pandemic It's fair to say that 20 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: governments have had more than a little control over both 21 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 1: the economic accelerator and of course the breaks. But with 22 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: the O Macron variant running rampant in many major economies, 23 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: we're seeing a new factor that governments seem to have 24 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: a lot less control overcome into play. Workers calling in sick. 25 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: It's hard to overstate how fast the O Macron virus 26 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,559 Speaker 1: has hit the United States. It took the US ten 27 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 1: months to register its first ten million cases. In the 28 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: last ten million cases, which in early January took the 29 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,840 Speaker 1: US through the sixty million case mark, have come in 30 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: less than a month. That speed has had consequences for 31 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: businesses that have been very different than what they saw 32 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: at other times in the pen demic. Here's James Bill, 33 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: the CEO of Leto Pizza, a chain that has a 34 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: hundred and ten locations in the Washington, d c. Area. 35 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: Now it's almost kind of like we're resetting the clock again. 36 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 1: Our our new normal is becoming another new normal. It 37 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: seems like it's also not just the pizza chains workers 38 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: calling in sick. Beal says he's been dealing with another 39 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: round of problems with his suppliers, their staff, problems have 40 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: seen them reduce production shifts and delivery routes. To put 41 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: that in real world restaurant menu terms, that means he 42 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: can't get as many mozzarella sticks as he would like, 43 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: and it takes longer to get them. It's happening pre Amicron, 44 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: but his has gotten Deviline has got worse. Tell me, 45 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 1: tell me how how you guys have been hit by, 46 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 1: particularly this latest wave here. I think this latest wave 47 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: is just I think hit A lot of people are 48 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: sort of on certainty. I think that's the biggest Jim Robertson, 49 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: who with a partner owns and operates five Leado franchises 50 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: and the DC area sas. So far, the supply chain 51 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: problems haven't hit the pizzas, although a few times recently 52 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: he has had to make the two hour there and 53 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: back drive to a Virginia warehouse to pick up pizza 54 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: boxes that haven't arrived in time from suppliers like in 55 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: boxes one day, and then you're trying to find containers 56 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: for the wings the next day, and then if you're 57 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: out of moth through all the sticks. So it's just 58 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: but I guess I think understand it. And so as 59 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: long as you explain things to people, I think you're okay. 60 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: It's just the core items. You get nervous. You don't 61 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: want to run out of anything we do to make 62 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: the pizza right. You know, It's one thing if you're 63 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: out a moth through all the sticks and you won't 64 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 1: hear me company. But if I'm at a you know, 65 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: you know, making be not being able to make the 66 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: pizza sauce or being able to make dough, then you've 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: got a big problem. The problem for the US economy is, 68 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: of course, that it's not just a problem affecting the 69 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: supply of deep fried cheese. What started as a series 70 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: of holiday flight cancelations as pilots and other staff fell 71 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: ill or were forced into quarantine, it's rapidly becoming a 72 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: business reality, and factories, hospitals, grocery stores, and at those 73 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 1: ports where the container bottlenecks were building up last year. 74 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 1: Even if the hit is temporary, as most anticipate, the 75 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: disruptions enclosures are likely to slow the fragile rebound in 76 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: some sectors and way on businesses plans for the future. 77 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 1: Nick Bunker, an economist at job Site, indeed, grew up 78 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,919 Speaker 1: in Massachusetts and there everyone remembers the Great Blizzard of 79 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: seventy eight, which dumped as much as four ft of 80 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: snow on parts of New England inside thirty six hours 81 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 1: in February. It paralyzed the region for weeks. It was 82 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: a major economic hit in the short term, which is 83 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: what he thinks oh maicron will do. Only it has 84 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: quickly become a national event, which means for now thinking 85 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: about the economic impact as the mother of all winter storms, 86 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: this big we a very large, sharp shock to the 87 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: economy in the lade market specifically. But the hope is, 88 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: like a storm, it ends and then there's return to 89 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: prior trends. The impact may also be partly hidden in 90 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: the data. Of course. The monthly job numbers in the 91 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: US and elsewhere are really best at estimating who has 92 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 1: been fired or hired in any given month. They're not 93 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: as good at telling the story of lost economic output 94 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: due to people calling in sick. And yet there's clearly 95 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: evidence of exactly that. Alaska Airlines has already canceled ten 96 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: percent of its flights in the month of January, citing 97 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: an unprecedented number of staff calling in sick. Lulu Lemon, 98 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 1: the leisureware company, warned this week that it had been 99 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 1: forced to reduce operating hours that its stores because of 100 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: lack of staff, which means fewer yoga pants sold and 101 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: lower profits. In California, out breaks of hit luxury retailers 102 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: on Rodeo Drive. Supermarkets are blaming oh Macron Absences for 103 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:10,040 Speaker 1: contributing to shortages of everything from chicken breasts to organic tofu. 104 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: They've also hit the ports, which is daunting for anyone 105 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: who was paying attention to the supply chain crisis we 106 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: all lived and breathed last year. Jim McKenna is president 107 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: of the Pacific Maritime Association. They negotiate labor agreements for 108 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,119 Speaker 1: seventy companies at twenty nine ports on the West coast 109 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:30,039 Speaker 1: of the United States. Well, we've seen over the last 110 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: couple of weeks is the virus go from two to 111 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: three a day to twenty a day, and now we're 112 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: doing over a hundred positive tests per day, and in fact, 113 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 1: on Wednesday we had a hundred and sixty longshoreman test positive. 114 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: There is good news, of course, when workers do have 115 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: to stay homesick, they often aren't out for as long 116 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 1: as they were with other variants, especially if they are vaccinated. 117 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: Jim Robertson's Leado franchises haven't been hit hard yet. He 118 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: had three employees at one store test positive, but he's 119 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: been able to keep running. And while there weren't many 120 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: people eating lunch in the dining room of one of 121 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: his stores on a visit earlier this week, it wasn't 122 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 1: entirely dead. Is it changing how you're thinking about the 123 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: business or what your strategy at all, or how your 124 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 1: protecting or do you think they're going to go back 125 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: to a world where I'm We've got people here eat 126 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: much right now. But yeah, but so when we would 127 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: normally have this restaurant would be full in old days 128 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: at on a even on a Tuesday, and at mean 129 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: would at least be three quarters getting ready to fill 130 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: up because it's a small dining room. But you definitely 131 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 1: have rethought on a monthly basis what you're gonna do 132 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: to generate more carry out business, how to make it 133 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: more efficient. You know, we now have curb side. We 134 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: used to not have. We have um you know, during 135 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: the height of the COVID we would you know, we 136 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: had it all carry out at that point. We found 137 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: ways to streamline things, open a door to make guests 138 00:07:58,040 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 1: for it feel more comfortable. It's really just how we 139 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: make our guests experience the best that can beat through this. 140 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 1: Back in the kitchen, there were Manzelli sticks going in 141 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: the deep fryer next to a cauldron of mariniri sauce. 142 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: All of the staff were masked, but they were there 143 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: and working, even if one of the printers that buzzed 144 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: into action every so often was playing up, which is 145 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: emblematic of a broader story of adaptation. Lito Pizza was 146 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: facing staff shortages before oh Macron. The company now employs 147 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: fewer people than it did before the pandemic. To adapt, 148 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: Beale says they have quietly cut the choices customers have 149 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: for their pizzas. They've also dropped complicated pasta items from 150 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: the menu to take some of the pressure off kitchen staff. 151 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: So as to planning ahead, and one thing we try 152 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,559 Speaker 1: to do is embrace the technology to see where we 153 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: can reduce pain points as far as the labor So 154 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: prior to COVID, we did three percent online ordering, a 155 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 1: digital ordering. Now we're up to about thirty digital lording. 156 00:09:00,200 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 1: So that actually and that's in a you know, eighteen 157 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: month time frame, so that actually enables us to do 158 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: a greater volume with loss people. In economic terms, that 159 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: of course means they're increasing productivity. That's good for business, 160 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: but that doesn't diminish the hit. The virus is the economy, 161 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: and he keeps finding ways to surprise us, which is 162 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: why millions of us are calling in sick for Bloomberg News. 163 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: I'm Sean Donnon now France and the story of Emmanuel 164 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: Macorn when he came out of nowhere to win the 165 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: presidency in seventeen, just a few months after President Trump 166 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 1: entered the Oval office, mcral was dubbed the great Liberal Hope, 167 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: a supporter of multinationalism, rules, liberal values, free markets, everything 168 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 1: you might say the President Trump was not. He was 169 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: going to transform the French economy, lead the European Union 170 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,920 Speaker 1: to bigger and better things, oh and fixed climate change. 171 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:11,160 Speaker 1: Now it's five years on and he's facing the fight 172 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 1: of his life to be re elected in April against 173 00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: some right wing opponents who are forcing him onto difficult 174 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: political territory. But he does have one ace up his 175 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: sleeve that eluded past French presidents, a strong economy. In 176 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: a minute, We're very lucky to have a chat with 177 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 1: the French finance minister Bruno Amaire. But first a few 178 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: words with our France economy reporter Will Horribon. Will thanks 179 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 1: very much, and I should thank you for for helping 180 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: us get that interview with Bruno Lemaire. Just get us 181 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: up to speed. For those who haven't been watching the 182 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: twists and turns of the French presidential election, where do 183 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: we stand? Well? In some ways the French presidential election 184 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,439 Speaker 1: hasn't really got going yet because COVID is very much 185 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: gone in the God in the way. But what we 186 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 1: see happening is the Macron is he has still has 187 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: quite a lead in the polls um and the people 188 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: who are close closest behind him are those to the 189 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 1: right of where he's set himself out. Now. The way 190 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:17,959 Speaker 1: the French elections works, important to have a reminder is 191 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: it's a two round process, so that two candidates who 192 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: get the most votes in the first round go to 193 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: a second round run off. So most poles are showing 194 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: now that Macron will go to a run off against 195 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: one of one of three candidates from his right, and 196 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 1: and those are There's there's Barry Press, who's a sort 197 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: of center right candidate from Lepic party. There is his perennial, 198 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: the perennial nationalist candidate in French elections, Marine Lapin Lpin 199 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: is always a surname of the perennials, the surname here, 200 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:53,959 Speaker 1: but this would be if if she went to the 201 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: run off, that would be a repeat of twenty seventeen 202 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: for Macron as well. And then there is a new 203 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: far Candida as well, who's a sort of former polemicist, journalist, 204 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: commentator Eric m. And you you mentioned that it does 205 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: introduce this kind of interesting dynamic, the fact that you 206 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: have the two rounds. So so where do the polls stand. Well, 207 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: Macron does have quite a good lead, and you know 208 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: he's around let's say, in the first round, and then 209 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,160 Speaker 1: the three other candidates are often around neck and neck, 210 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: about seven or eight points behind him. So it seems 211 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: quite clear that he will at the moment, if you 212 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,079 Speaker 1: if the polls are correct, that he will get to 213 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: the second round relatively easily, and then he will have 214 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: to in the second round. It's very different if he 215 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 1: faces valet becles from the center right who perhaps have 216 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 1: similar economic program to him, or whether he faces one 217 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 1: of the more controversial candidates in Marine le Pen. Thinking 218 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,360 Speaker 1: about that second round. You know, it's all very well 219 00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 1: if you if you win the first round, but if 220 00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:04,719 Speaker 1: all of the right candidates together add up to considerably 221 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: more at the moment, considerably more than you know, you 222 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:10,560 Speaker 1: have a bit more of a risk if you have 223 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: a candidate that's going to unite all of those all 224 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: of those voters. So what's the what's the prospects for that? Again, 225 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 1: it depends who it is. I think you know that 226 00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: some people who voted for Zamore could vote for say 227 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: l Pen in the second round. Some people who voted 228 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: for the Pen in the second round in first round 229 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 1: could vote for in the second or even the other 230 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: way around. It's very hard to predict that at the moment. 231 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: And another big important factor in this is absenteerism. Will 232 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: will people not actually just not bother voting in the 233 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: second round? Um, And that makes it very hard to 234 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: predict as well. We've said at the start that the 235 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: economy is quite strong, and we gather you've written that 236 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: his advisers are saying, you know, don't necessary you know, 237 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:03,360 Speaker 1: don't spend all this time talking about immigrants and and 238 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: other difficult issues. You know, go to your strong suit, 239 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 1: which is the economy is that put at risk by 240 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,839 Speaker 1: by Omicron or does he is that a really strong 241 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 1: card for him. It could be a strong card depending 242 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:20,359 Speaker 1: on the timing. Right now, the French economy has recovered 243 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:25,760 Speaker 1: very well from the pandemic um and sort of noticeably 244 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: better than some of its European peers, and so that 245 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: is definitely an asset for him if that continues in 246 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: the next couple of months. Um there are some very 247 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 1: strong employment numbers that I think not even not even 248 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 1: his team expected to see at the end of by 249 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 1: the end of this year. And also, as we talked 250 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: about in the story that we've written, the so he 251 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 1: can point to some of the early reforms that you've 252 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: mentioned in in your introduction as being part of the 253 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: reason why some of these some of these positive economic 254 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: results are coming through now. Um. So, depending how he 255 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: plays it, and if if the pandemic comes off the 256 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 1: boil to a stain extent in the next few weeks, 257 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: then it could be the card that could be very 258 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: useful for him going into this election. Well, thanks to 259 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 1: you and your excellent contacts at the French Finance Ministry, 260 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: we can hear a lot more about that now in 261 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: my conversation I had with the Finance Mr Puno Lamaire. 262 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 1: But thanks very much, well, thank you Stephanie. We're delighted 263 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 1: to have the French Finance Ministra back with us. Welcome 264 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 1: back to Stephanomics, Ms leminist Thank you. We obviously are 265 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: many people listening to this podcast are in America and 266 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: in other places, and many of the stories we see 267 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 1: coming out of France in the run up to this 268 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: presidential election have been about immigration, security and of course 269 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic. But President Macon came to office five years 270 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: ago on a platform of nomic change. We were going 271 00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: to see a wave of supply side reforms that would 272 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: end decades of relative economic decline for France. So do 273 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: you think that macronomics has succeeded? What's happened to that agenda? 274 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: I think that maccon has been successful in restoring the 275 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: French economy and in making the French economy more competitive. 276 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: And the promise that he made in twenty seventeen was 277 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: to introduce a total of the whole of the French 278 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:37,160 Speaker 1: taxasion system, of the French competitiveness for the sake of 279 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 1: having more jobs and more growth. And here we are. 280 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: We have more growth with the level of six goals 281 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: for one, and we have restored the pre crisis activity 282 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: level no later than November of last year. And as 283 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: far as employment is concerned, we have the highest employment 284 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 1: rate in fifty years, sixty seven point five for the 285 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: fifteen to sixty or four years old. So I really 286 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: want to in see on the fact that the economic 287 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 1: policies that have been introduced by Quison backron is a success, 288 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,600 Speaker 1: success for France and a success for the French people. 289 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,640 Speaker 1: You're right that employment is stronger than it has been 290 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: in a while, but unemployment still much higher than in Germany. 291 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,040 Speaker 1: And if you look at the forecast of our economists 292 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: of other economists, they don't seem to expect higher long 293 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: term growth rates in France as a result of any 294 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: of these policies. So so in that sense, macronomics has 295 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 1: does not seem to have had an impact. Now I 296 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 1: show your point of your the necessity to reinforce those results, 297 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: but I would like to underline that we have a 298 00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: very sound and solid basis to reinforce the French economy 299 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: and to make better over the next years. The level 300 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: of corporate stacks was thirty three point three in twenty 301 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 1: seventeen and we reduce that level to twent for all 302 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: companies in tw two. We also have very positive results 303 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 1: on the creation of private companies and on the scalp 304 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: of our startups. So I think that there is a 305 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: need to continue reducing the level of taxation on private companies. 306 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: I think that we have to reduce the level of 307 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,720 Speaker 1: social charges on the highest wages if we want to 308 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: be more competitive for the technological industries. And we also 309 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: have to think about the best way of improving the 310 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: skills of the French workers. But my point is we 311 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: are on the right track. We did the necessary reforms. 312 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: There is a need to do more, there is a 313 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 1: need to do better, but we are on the right 314 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: track by improving the French offer, which was to meet 315 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: the key point in the French echomy. You have talked 316 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: about the energy price rise that the whole of Europe 317 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: is seeing as an absolute emergency. Clearly it's a massive 318 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: issue in the UK and other places. Households are bracing 319 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: themselves for maybe fifty increases in their energy bills in 320 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 1: April in the UK. France has made this what's from 321 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,959 Speaker 1: the outside an extraordinary commitment to cap the impact on 322 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 1: households this year to only a four percent rise. You're 323 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 1: the finance Mr. Can you really afford that to write 324 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: that blank check to French households and who's who's going 325 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 1: to pay for it? In the end, It's an absolute 326 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: necessity and I think that we would have to share 327 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: the cost of course between the French state and we 328 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 1: are already being eight billion yours to reduce the level 329 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: of the energy prices, the electricity prices for both the 330 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: households and the private companies, and we will need to 331 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: do more because increase on energy prices. The increase on 332 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: electricity prices might reach thirty five to for the year 333 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. So there is an absolute necessity to 334 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,919 Speaker 1: intervene if we do not want to have very strong 335 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 1: difficulties for the households and a threat on the private companies, 336 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: especially on the industrial companies. So we have decided first 337 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 1: of all to reduce the level of taxation on electricity prices. 338 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 1: This is the first response that we have given with 339 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:51,199 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister to the increase on electricity prices. But 340 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: it won't be enough. So we are working very closely 341 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 1: with a d F electricity refunds to try to build 342 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: a second response. We will which will complement the first 343 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: one and which will allow us to stick to the 344 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: promise given by present Macon to cap the executive prices 345 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: to four in twenty two. I hope that we would 346 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: find the response, that we would be able to proposal 347 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,719 Speaker 1: response no lager than the end of this week. And 348 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: do you see that as an economic necessity or a 349 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 1: political necessity? Because I look around Europe and there's the 350 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: same kind of energy price prices coming down the track 351 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: for many governments, and no government, no other major government, 352 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: is offering this kind of support, but they're not just 353 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: about to face a presidential election. This, first of all, 354 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:45,160 Speaker 1: in economic necessity because it is less costly to protect 355 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: the industrial plans from this huge increase of the executive prices, 356 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: rather than providing help to the salaries, providing help to 357 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:03,640 Speaker 1: those companies because they are threatened by possibly shut down. 358 00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 1: I really think that this is the right response, the 359 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: right economic response to this electricity crisis. I also want 360 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: to insist on the necessity to have a long term approach, 361 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: which won't be enough to have a protection given by 362 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: boast of French state and by a deaf We also 363 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: need to have a long term response based on changes 364 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: in the electricity market, the European electricity market, because I 365 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:34,959 Speaker 1: think that they need for changes in the European electricity market. 366 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: It will be also the core of the French EU presidency. 367 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 1: What is your advice to to other governments who are 368 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: all dealing with the same issue and they can also 369 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:49,439 Speaker 1: see what the potential cost could be of putting the 370 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 1: bill for these energy price rises. I think that may 371 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 1: be why they are willing to have households really shoulder 372 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 1: the burden over the next year. What do you think 373 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,439 Speaker 1: of the risk of that you let households face this 374 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 1: kind of maybe thirty forty increase in their energy bills. 375 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: First of all, I really think that there is no 376 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 1: possibility for our people to have such an increase in 377 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 1: their electricity bills thirty when the average electricity bill in 378 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 1: France is around nine euros. That's something that the all 379 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,919 Speaker 1: the people cannot afford, and that's why there is a 380 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: need for a strong response. Then I really think that 381 00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: the single, fair and efficient response over the long term 382 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: is based on one single word. Independence. We need to 383 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 1: be more independent on the production of energy. We need 384 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 1: to reduce the level of dependency on gas production by 385 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: Russia and by other foreign states, which means that we 386 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: have to build both new nuclear plants. That's the response 387 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 1: that we wanted to give. We put on back home 388 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:14,320 Speaker 1: to the risk of these increasing energy prices, and we 389 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 1: also have to rely on renewable energies. But the real 390 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: response is to have more independence on the energy production 391 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: everywhere in Europe. Do you think as we look at 392 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,760 Speaker 1: the fallout, the longer term fallout from the pandemic, the 393 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: one that is most obvious clearly is inflation, and not 394 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 1: just energy prices, but inflation that's come from supply chain 395 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: issues and potentially also the labor market being quite tight 396 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 1: in many places, people changing their attitude to work in 397 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 1: some countries. Do you think inflation could end up as 398 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: a greater political risk to governments than the pandemic itself. 399 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: We have to be vigilant. We have to understand what 400 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:08,119 Speaker 1: is behind this increase on prices, and I think that 401 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,399 Speaker 1: what is behind and what explains half of the increase 402 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: of prices is the energy prices, and that's why the 403 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: long term response must be based on more independence on 404 00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,400 Speaker 1: energy production, and then we need to be very careful, 405 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 1: very vigilant on inflation or assessment remains that this level 406 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:35,399 Speaker 1: of inflation remains a temporary inflation. But let's be very clear. 407 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: When I'm speaking about temporary inflation, I'm not speaking about days. 408 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:46,120 Speaker 1: I'm not speaking about weeks. I'm speaking about months. And 409 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: I think that we would have to leave with a 410 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,399 Speaker 1: pretty high level of inflation by the end of twenty 411 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: twenty two, because of the lack of energy, because of 412 00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:01,000 Speaker 1: the difficulties in the supply chains, because of the situation 413 00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: in China, which has decided to close its borders. For 414 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 1: all these reasons, I think that we would have to 415 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,359 Speaker 1: leave with a pretty high level of inflation by the 416 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: end of twenty twenty two. So this is a temporary inflation. 417 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 1: But we have to understand that the word temporary means 418 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:26,440 Speaker 1: some month and not some weeks. We have different definitions 419 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 1: of transient in the US, and people are certainly changing 420 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: their view of that. If we step back a little bit, 421 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: you will remember, you will certainly know five years ago, 422 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 1: people around the world so President Maquon as Europe's great 423 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: liberal hope. He seemed to be this new, very confident 424 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 1: blend of the best liberal instincts from the right and 425 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: the left of French politics European politics. But now we 426 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: look at the presidential campaign, he's he's polling only just 427 00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,920 Speaker 1: ahead of two extreme right candidates, one of which we 428 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: didn't even know about a few months ago. Is the 429 00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 1: conclusion the rest of the world to draw that that 430 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 1: middle road that President mcrow was walking is impossible in 431 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: today's climate, just can't be done. No. I think, on 432 00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:20,200 Speaker 1: the contrary, that he um is the evidence that there 433 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: is a path for shuctule reforms, for the improvement of 434 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 1: the competitiveness of an economy and for the possibility of 435 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:40,640 Speaker 1: giving to every citizens the chance of being successful. Of course, 436 00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,360 Speaker 1: we are facing a very stronger position from the extremist parties, 437 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 1: but that's the case everywhere in the Western world. It 438 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,400 Speaker 1: has been the case in the United States, it has 439 00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 1: been the case in Italy, it has been the case 440 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: in the UK. So it is the case in every 441 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: Western country. But the true is that there is a 442 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 1: possibility for this way to be successful. And I'm deeply 443 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 1: convinced that at the next president short election in France, 444 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:19,080 Speaker 1: Emma will be successful because he has given the evidence 445 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 1: that if we are taking the right economic decisions, we 446 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: can get some very strong wizards. Once again, we are 447 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 1: on the right pass We should stick to that path 448 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: because it gives results to the French population. But just 449 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: to push back a little bit, those two extreme right 450 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: candidates are polling between them significantly more than President mcrow, 451 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,120 Speaker 1: And when one looks at the stories and the language 452 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: from the presidential campaign, it feels like his his response, 453 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: his political response in order to win the election, has 454 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,040 Speaker 1: been to move away from his liberal instincts and to 455 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,719 Speaker 1: play up perhaps two or of the the illiberal or 456 00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: the anti immigration side of French politics. So um, again, 457 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,400 Speaker 1: from the outside, that seems like quite a dispiriting development 458 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,160 Speaker 1: that the only way he can succeed is actually by 459 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 1: moving away from the liberal vision that he had outlined. 460 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,880 Speaker 1: It depends on what you mean by a liberal revision. 461 00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: If a liberal revision means to believe in the possibility 462 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 1: for every citizen to build its own success, which is 463 00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: I think at the core of the poltical liberalism, I 464 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 1: could share that point of view. If you mean by 465 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: a liberal approach the fact that there is no need 466 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 1: for the state to intervene in the economy, I would 467 00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,560 Speaker 1: not share this point of view because the crisis just 468 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 1: proved one single thing. We need the intervention of the 469 00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 1: French state or of the urban states to as the 470 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 1: consequences of the crisis. And if we have been successful 471 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: in twenty one to face the crisis, to protect the 472 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,240 Speaker 1: companies and to protect the workers, and also to have 473 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:18,200 Speaker 1: a very quick and sound economic we bond. That's because 474 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: the states and the public powers decided to intervene and 475 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: to give very strong responses to the crisis. It was 476 00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 1: not the case in twenty eight and in twenty tendering 477 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: the financial crisis, and we were not successful during the 478 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,959 Speaker 1: last financial crisis. We have drawn the lessons of these 479 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:47,840 Speaker 1: financial crisis by asking the French state and by asking 480 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,840 Speaker 1: the Upan states to intervene on the market to protect 481 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: the companies and to protect the salaries, and it proved 482 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,160 Speaker 1: to be more efficient. It does not mean that I 483 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:03,120 Speaker 1: think that the state would have to intervene in every 484 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 1: situation and under every circumstances. It just means that in 485 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: a period of economic crisis, we need the intervention of 486 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: state and we need to support other states. We did 487 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: speak several years ago. You have managed to be Finance 488 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 1: Minister through the whole of President mcross presidency, which is 489 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:26,160 Speaker 1: not is quite a rare thing in France. I gather, 490 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:27,960 Speaker 1: do you want to stay in your job if you 491 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: get the chance, or is there a better job in 492 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,800 Speaker 1: government that you would like. There is no better job 493 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:39,160 Speaker 1: than being finance minister. And I will just finished by 494 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 1: insisting on the necessity of having more stability in French politics. 495 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,440 Speaker 1: You know, when we are talking about economy, about finance, 496 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 1: about coming back to some public finances, about the necessity 497 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 1: of having more industry in France, it takes time. And 498 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: the lesson that I draw from these five years as 499 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: a French finance minister is that if you want to 500 00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: build something solid for the French nation and for the 501 00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:12,520 Speaker 1: French people, you need time. Time is of the essence. 502 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: If you want to be successful, you need more stebility 503 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: into French politics. Bruno Lamaire, thank you very much, Thank 504 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 1: you so much. That's it for Stephonomics. We'll be back 505 00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:34,080 Speaker 1: next week. But for more news from Bloomberg Economics, do 506 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 1: follow us Economics on Twitter and maybe check out my 507 00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 1: cover story for this week's Business Week on the year 508 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,479 Speaker 1: ahead for the global economy. This episode was produced by 509 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson, with special thanks to Sean Donnan, will Horribin 510 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 1: and the French finance Minister Bruno Lamaire. Mike Sasso is 511 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 1: executive producer of Stephonomics and the head of Bloomberg podcast 512 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: is Francesca Leap