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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Saturday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Matt Parolzi here on Bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: We're always being brought to you by bet MGM. You

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Speaker 1: find this podcast on YouTube or wherever you get your

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Speaker 1: audio podcasts. It's a Saturday, It's a college football Saturday.

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Speaker 1: We are locked and loaded and ready to go here

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Speaker 1: for a big, big Saturday. If you guys want to

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Speaker 1: take the bet MGM offer, you should know it by now.

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Speaker 1: You bet ten dollars, you win one hundred and fifty dollars.

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Speaker 1: Available to new users. You can bet ten dollars on

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Speaker 1: any event. You win one hundred and fifty dollars in

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Speaker 1: credits regardless of the outcome when you use the promo

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Speaker 1: code Juice one fifty. If you're ever wondering where it

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Speaker 1: is or what it is, it's above me here on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: over my left shoulder, right shoulder, with facing you guys

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Speaker 1: for the offer ten dollars to win one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars an event. Promo code Juice one fifty. Okay,

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Speaker 1: deep breath, okay, Okay, back to back losing days gonna happen. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that loss by UCF was tough, so I had a

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Speaker 1: personal bet on a team total of over thirty seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. That interception burned me because at worst

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Speaker 1: UCF would kick a field goal there and win the

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Speaker 1: game and cash that thirty seven and a half team total.

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Speaker 1: The cover probably wasn't gonna happen, but maybe they were

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Speaker 1: going for a touchdown because they were throwing the football

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Speaker 1: after they had a crazy interception of their own and

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Speaker 1: man a pick six. We lose the game on a

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Speaker 1: pick six. I mean, at least if they throw an interception,

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Speaker 1: there's a chance the game goes to overtime, game goes

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Speaker 1: to overtime, well, pretty good chance. I'm cashing that team

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Speaker 1: total and maybe we get a mirror goal and we

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Speaker 1: covered the six and a half. So just look, as

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Speaker 1: I've talked about before, we've had some pretty fortunate games.

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Speaker 1: We're now one in one on UCF games, and you

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Speaker 1: can say that it's payback for the game against Boise

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Speaker 1: because we laid four and a half. They won by

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Speaker 1: five and we just barely covered that four and a

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Speaker 1: half point line. So it comes back and bites us.

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Speaker 1: Louisville was the right side plus seven money line Louisville.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations if you bet that tip of the cap. Good bet,

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Speaker 1: bad bet by me. The baseball bet was just because

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Speaker 1: I hate betting baseball. The Blue Jays, not just the

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Speaker 1: Blue Jays didn't just kill the two leg money line parlay.

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Speaker 1: They killed the parlay parlay. Although at the time of

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Speaker 1: taping the Giants just gave up a three run home

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Speaker 1: run in the top of the ninth inning. They were

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Speaker 1: up four to two. We had them on the run line.

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Speaker 1: But the one thing we were gonna do, like I've

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Speaker 1: been talking about yesterday, we were going to fade and

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Speaker 1: we were going to use the Giant's game to hedge

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Speaker 1: if we had hit the first two legs, and unfortunately

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Speaker 1: the first leg didn't hit, the second leg did. Because

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Speaker 1: if a Big ten football game is set at sixty

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Speaker 1: one and a half, again bet the under. There's no

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Speaker 1: need for a Big ten football game to be set

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Speaker 1: at sixty one and a half. I should have bet

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Speaker 1: the under anyway, if I wasn't so dreadful with totals

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Speaker 1: last weekend. You know, UCF over sixty seven was the play,

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Speaker 1: and the Illinois and Maryland game under was the play.

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Speaker 1: Unfortunately I didn't bet either. One Heinstein's twenty twenty. Unfortunately

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Speaker 1: we don't get either one, so that's kind of a

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Speaker 1: bummer here. So I've got a bunch of things to

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Speaker 1: tell you about. I've got two UFC bets to give

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Speaker 1: you here tonight. I am already really heavy with college football.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to add too much, except I will

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Speaker 1: say this. The Discord bet is at eleven am on

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel, Bettingpros dot Com, slast chat, or the

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Speaker 1: links underneath me here on YouTube Discord Bet eight am

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Speaker 1: Pacific eleven am Eastern time. Okay, we're all gonna get together.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave Alabama first half minus nine to you guys.

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Speaker 1: Seven and a half was the opening number. It already's

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Speaker 1: been bet to nine, So if you didn't bet it already,

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Speaker 1: you were kind of snoozing here. But I'm gonna give

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Speaker 1: it to you guys. If you want it, you bet

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Speaker 1: it two weeks ago with Miami and that's how we

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Speaker 1: cash the last Discord bet. So I'm not telling you

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Speaker 1: what to bet. I'm just gonna leave that alone in

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Speaker 1: case you guys want to bet it, and then maybe

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Speaker 1: I'll trail it with you. Well, I will trail it

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Speaker 1: with you if you pick it. But I'm gonna leave

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Speaker 1: that bet there. If you want it, it's available, Okay,

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Speaker 1: Discord bet or go with something else. Stand on a

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Speaker 1: table and go with something else. The number, by the way,

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Speaker 1: was seven and a half. It's now nine. So it's

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Speaker 1: an eight point win for Bama in the first half

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Speaker 1: when we lose. Okay, just keep that in mind. Not

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Speaker 1: impossible for that to happen. And seven point win for

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Speaker 1: Bama and we lose, so nine points is a lot.

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Speaker 1: Alabama is pretty good in the first half, but they

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Speaker 1: got to be up by two scores on Florida a

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Speaker 1: touchdown in a field goal in the first half on Florida.

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Speaker 1: So Discord Bet eleven am Eastern. Then the Circa Million Conversation.

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Speaker 1: If you are a team member for the Daily Juice

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Speaker 1: Circa Million team reminder, you must be in the Discord

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Speaker 1: channel coming up at three pm Eastern. Our picks are

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Speaker 1: due at five pm Eastern time. Okay, the picks are

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Speaker 1: due at two pm Pacific. So we've got to find

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Speaker 1: five bets. Five picks of the circum million stagnant lines

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Speaker 1: where we went two and three last week, so let's

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Speaker 1: bounce back. So we got Cold Brewster and Dean Izzy

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Speaker 1: and myself and tree Beard, and I'm forgetting the other

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Speaker 1: two names, and I apologize your handles. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: you guys tomorrow here during the Discord Million live chat

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Speaker 1: to break down the five teams we're going to pick

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Speaker 1: for the circa million, So that conversation will happen a

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Speaker 1: couple of hours after the Discord bet conversation, also on

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Speaker 1: Discord bettingpros dot com slash chat for that. All right,

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Speaker 1: I'll be watching games all day. I'll be having some fun.

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Speaker 1: We already are on Cincinnati minus three and a half,

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Speaker 1: penn State minus four and a half, Arizona State minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half. Those are all one unit, full

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Speaker 1: unit bets that we've got going on here for today. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about the difference between a personal

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Speaker 1: play and an official play here in just one second.

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Speaker 1: But my concern is this. Road dogs, sorry road favorites,

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Speaker 1: rather h home dogs. Home dogs are playing really well. Illinois.

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Speaker 1: It's currently seventeen to ten. They were seven point dogs

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Speaker 1: at home to Maryland. They're about to win outright. Louisville

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Speaker 1: seven point dogs at home to UCF they won outright.

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Speaker 1: I'm getting very concerned about the fact that I'm betting

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati a road favorite and Arizona State a road favorite.

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Speaker 1: Penn State is a home favorite at least, But man,

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Speaker 1: I hope these trends don't continue with the bets I

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Speaker 1: have made over the weekend, or it's a crashing coming

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Speaker 1: down to earth big time for me. We're now what

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Speaker 1: fifteen six and one with our bets in college football?

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Speaker 1: I think that's right. But three bets going tomorrow. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So let me tell you something. Somebody yesterday on the

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Speaker 1: Discord channel had a conversation or a question to me

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Speaker 1: about personal plays versus official plays, and they said, you

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Speaker 1: know what is going on when you make official plays?

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Speaker 1: Why don't you tell everybody? Well, the reason why I

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Speaker 1: don't tell everybody is because it's not my handicap. And

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Speaker 1: a lot of times I get calls from people that

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Speaker 1: tell me, hey, X, Y and Z, they have a line,

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Speaker 1: they have information, they have a beat on a game,

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Speaker 1: whatever it might be. I interview people every day on

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Speaker 1: my radio show. I have dms from people everywhere. Right,

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Speaker 1: They're all telling me different things. They're all talking to

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Speaker 1: me about different things, and sometimes they gave me plays

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Speaker 1: that are good. So like, for instance, I'm on Boise

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half at home taking on Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State today. It's not my handicap, Okay, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to claim it's mine. Okay. Sometime their mind and sometimes

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Speaker 1: they're not. Sometimes they're picks I like, but I don't

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Speaker 1: like enough to make it official. Like like I had

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox team total yesterday at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Why because the Oriel stink and the Red Sox scored

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Speaker 1: a ton to run and Chris Sale was pitching, and

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox needed to win and they did. I

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Speaker 1: was on the team total for UCF and they should

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Speaker 1: have kicked that field goal to go over. I was

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Speaker 1: on thirty seven and a half and they would have

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Speaker 1: scored thirty eight. We would have won that. I would

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Speaker 1: have won that team total, but it wasn't official. But

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Speaker 1: I lost even more than just the one unit bet.

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Speaker 1: I lost even more on that game. So it was

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Speaker 1: not a good night for me at all last night.

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Speaker 1: You know, Thursday was bad, Friday was bad. Been a

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Speaker 1: couple of rough days for me. So that's what happens.

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Speaker 1: So if in case you're ever curious as to like

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Speaker 1: what I'm doing, I you know, I bet things all

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Speaker 1: the time that I don't tell you guys, just because

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Speaker 1: again they're either for fun or their games I think about.

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Speaker 1: I live bet all the time. I you know, I

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Speaker 1: live bet on you know, I make official live bets,

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Speaker 1: but I also make live bets on games. If I

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Speaker 1: try to get out of a game, if I think

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Speaker 1: I've written, you know, read a game wrong, I'll try

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Speaker 1: to get out of it with a live wager that

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Speaker 1: sometimes they just don't like broadcast it. So just know that,

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Speaker 1: like the podcast and the Discord Channel, it's a way

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Speaker 1: of me conversing with you guys and watching games that

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Speaker 1: you guys and talking about plays that I like officially,

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Speaker 1: but I've got other things going on throughout the day,

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Speaker 1: throughout the week that never make it to the Discord

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Speaker 1: Channel and never make it to the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: Just FYI. So you know that the official record, like

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Speaker 1: for instance, the don't Bet a parlay parlay like, we

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Speaker 1: don't keep track of that record, right, the Discord bet,

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Speaker 1: we don't keep track of that record. Those are all

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Speaker 1: just things we're doing on the podcast that don't factor

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Speaker 1: in to the official record on the Daily Juice. So

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Speaker 1: there's different things where there's different personal plays I make

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Speaker 1: that don't affect the record of the Daily Juice. When

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Speaker 1: I say official, then it goes on the official record

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Speaker 1: of the Daily Juice. I know some of you are

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Speaker 1: new and learning about all this. So that's the difference

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Speaker 1: between personal play and official play. Okay. So I've got

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Speaker 1: three official plays going here for college football, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: cincinnatims three and a half, Penn State minus four and

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Speaker 1: a half in Arizona State minus three and a half

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Speaker 1: small lines. Two of them on the road, one of

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Speaker 1: them are at home. Okay, So I want to bet

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Speaker 1: some stuff here on the UFC. I want to couplet

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Speaker 1: a couple of half unit bets down on UFC Vegas

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Speaker 1: thirty seven A. Right, let's first talk about a two

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Speaker 1: fight parlay. Now, you guys know I'm kind of a

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Speaker 1: sucker for this, but Arman Zerukian is an absolute beast. Okay,

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Speaker 1: He's minus seven seventy at Circus Sports right now to

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Speaker 1: win his fight over christ dos Caia Goes. Zerukian is

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Speaker 1: an absolute mauler. And this guy is a quick rising

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Speaker 1: star in the UFC in the lightweight division. He's sixteen

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Speaker 1: and two. His fights all go the distance. His average

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Speaker 1: fight time is fifteen minutes, which is kind of crazy.

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Speaker 1: But he is not the greatest striker, but he is

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Speaker 1: an unbelievable wrestler. And he's a guy who will try

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Speaker 1: to take you down three to four times, and when

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Speaker 1: he gets on top of you, he just mauls you.

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Speaker 1: He could stop this dude nineteen and eight Christo's guy

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Speaker 1: who goes he could stop him, but I don't think

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Speaker 1: that really is. This guy just wants to win fights. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I think he wins money line. Okay, huge favorite. He

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Speaker 1: could stop this guy, but I could. I just don't

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Speaker 1: see this dude losing. Okay, I see him as one

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Speaker 1: of his last three fights. They're trying to build him

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Speaker 1: back up. Arminserukian is a Russian fighter who I think

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Speaker 1: is going to have a big career in the UFC. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so I just he's my seven to seven. He's a

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Speaker 1: huge favorite. So who are we going to prepare him with? Right,

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Speaker 1: That's where we have to look around, because this guy's winning.

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Speaker 1: So how do we figure it out? Where do we go? Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about Tony Gravely, who is a really interesting fighter.

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Speaker 1: Gravely is twenty one and six. His average fight time

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Speaker 1: is eleven forty in the one hundred and thirty five

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Speaker 1: pound bantamweight division. Gravely has been on a two fight

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Speaker 1: win streak, and he is somebody who the company could

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Speaker 1: take a look at. He's minus you know, at some books,

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Speaker 1: he's minus two twenty, minus one eighty, depending on where

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Speaker 1: you're going to find him on the money line. But

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Speaker 1: Nate Mains is a dude that I don't He's thirteen

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Speaker 1: and one, so a lot of people are saying look

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Speaker 1: out for the dog, and it's fighting right, so you

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Speaker 1: never know what's going to happen here. But I think

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Speaker 1: Tony Gravely in this division, he's he's big for this division,

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Speaker 1: and he's really strong for this division. Strikes landed per

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Speaker 1: minute four strikes landed per minute. That's up from two

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Speaker 1: point four for his opponent. Striking accuracy fifty four percent.

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Speaker 1: He's not that hittable, and Mains is hittable. Four point

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Speaker 1: six to three strikes absorbed per minute. That's not a

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Speaker 1: good recipe when you're fighting Tony Gravely to absorb this

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Speaker 1: dude's punches. Take down average Gravely six point one one

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Speaker 1: average takedowns per fifteen minutes Okay, take down accuracy fifty

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Speaker 1: four percent. This dude wants to get on you and

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Speaker 1: ground and pound you and hurt you. I like Gravely

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Speaker 1: to win you. Pair this up Gravely and Sarukian. It's

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Speaker 1: a minus one thirty nine parlay at Circa Sports half

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Speaker 1: a unit. We're going minus one thirty nine Zerukian and

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Speaker 1: Tony Gravely both just to win their fights. Here. Moneyline

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Speaker 1: parlay two leg moneyline parlay for a half a unit.

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Speaker 1: So what am I doing with the other half a unit?

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Speaker 1: We're going to the main event. Anthony Lionheart Smith. I

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Speaker 1: spent quite a bit of time in Omaha. There are

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Speaker 1: two fighters from Omaha that I've covered extensively. One Bud Crawford,

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Speaker 1: two Anthony Smith. I like this dude. I've always liked

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Speaker 1: this guy. He's a veteran. Ryan Spain. His opponent now,

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Speaker 1: Ryan Spain. This is his first five round fight. Okay,

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Speaker 1: six years ago he had one, but he really hasn't

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Speaker 1: had one in the UFC nineteen and six. Average fight

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Speaker 1: time for Ryan Spain five minutes in twenty eight seconds.

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Speaker 1: You're going up against a veteran, a veteran who knows

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Speaker 1: how to keep himself away from trouble. I think Anthony

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Speaker 1: Smith is going to take Ryan Spain into deep water

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Speaker 1: into the championship rounds, and I think he's gonna drown him.

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Speaker 1: Anthony Smith has got so many different weapons at his disposal.

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Speaker 1: He's won two fights in a row. But look, Anthony

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Speaker 1: Smith has been hurt, has been hurt a lot. Okay,

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Speaker 1: he's definitely hittable. Anthony Smith four point three six strike's

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Speaker 1: absorbed per minute. That's not good for a guy with

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Speaker 1: the power of Ryan Spain. They're gonna have to He's

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Speaker 1: gonna have to keep himself upright in a way from

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Speaker 1: trouble early in that fight because Spain's gonna try to

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Speaker 1: get him out early. Okay, But if you go to

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Speaker 1: the second round or the third round, this is where

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Speaker 1: Anthony Smith, I think, goes to work. You have to

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Speaker 1: search for this bet. DraftKings has Anthony Smith by knockout

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Speaker 1: submission TKO everything except except on the cards at plus

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Speaker 1: one ten. Okay, can't go the distance. It's got to

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Speaker 1: stop within the five round at plus one ten. I

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Speaker 1: just don't think Ryan SPAN's gonna be able to go

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Speaker 1: five rounds. Just don't see it. I think you're either

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Speaker 1: talking about the mission or talking about a knockout for

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Speaker 1: Anthony Smith. I think Ryan SPAN's gonna get tired, and

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Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be the game plan for Anthony Smith.

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Speaker 1: Kind of make a boring fight of it, and then

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Speaker 1: try to get after him in the later part of

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Speaker 1: the rounds. Again, average fight time for Ryan Spain is

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Speaker 1: five minutes to twenty eight seconds. Dude's never gone to

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Speaker 1: the fourth round, okay, So take him into the third round,

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Speaker 1: drown the guy deep and get him really tired, and

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Speaker 1: then go to work and either submit him or knock

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Speaker 1: him out. These are light heavyweights. Smith's got a gas tank. Spain,

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Speaker 1: we don't know. Span, we don't know. I'm going Anthony

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Speaker 1: Smith at plus one ten basically to win any way

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Speaker 1: possible except on the cards for a half a unit.

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Speaker 1: All right, So two plays for you guys to add on.

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Speaker 1: After we'd excuse me, after we're done watching football, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna flip over and we're gonna watch some fighting, I

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Speaker 1: guess simultaneously, because some of the games will be late

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Speaker 1: to night, but we're gonna watch these fights here in

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Speaker 1: Vegas at the Apex multaneously. We're going Seruchian and gravely

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Speaker 1: two leg moneyline parlay last one thirty nine for a

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Speaker 1: half a unit and Anthony Smith plus one ten just

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Speaker 1: to win the fight, but not on the cards every

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Speaker 1: other way except on the cards for Anthony Smith. That

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Speaker 1: bets at DraftKings at plus one ten for US for

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Speaker 1: a half a unit. Okay, so two UFC bets for you.

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Speaker 1: Three bets going on for college football. Let's have some

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Speaker 1: fun here on a Saturday. I may I'll have the

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Speaker 1: Discord bet. You guys are gonna give it to me,

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Speaker 1: so we'll see where we go with the Discord bet,

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Speaker 1: and who knows, there may be an ad or two

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Speaker 1: depending on how the day is gonna go. We'll see

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Speaker 1: how it all kind of shapes up here. But I

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Speaker 1: will talk to you at eight o'clock in the morning

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Speaker 1: Pacific time eleven am Eastern time for the Discord Bet

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Speaker 1: Conversation where you guys will get to vote on what

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Speaker 1: bet to make for the Discord bet coming up here

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Speaker 1: today for a Saturday. My name is Matt Parolt. You

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Speaker 1: can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each

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Speaker 1: and every morning it's the Daily Juice podcast right here

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Speaker 1: on bettingpros dot Com, always being brought to you by

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Speaker 1: bet MGM