1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome back to Drill. I'm Amy Westerveld are 2 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,319 Speaker 1: slapped and Carbon Bros. Seasons have wrapped and we'll be 3 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: bringing you a new season later this month. In the meantime, 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,639 Speaker 1: we have a whole bunch of interviews to bring you, 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: starting with this great conversation our Australia reporter Royce Kermilov's 6 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 1: had last month with Brown University professor Mark Blythe and 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: what he calls the strategy of carbon dominance and how 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: we're seeing that strategy play out in an all out 9 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: attack on renewable energy in the US and beyond. 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: Hope enjoy it. 11 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for being here to talk to 12 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 3: you about this. I've been very much looking forward to 13 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 3: this conversation for some time after what your talk at 14 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 3: the run Square of Economics about carbon dominance, where you 15 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: describe the politics of climate change and you put it 16 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 3: through the lens of both carbon and power. Would you 17 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 3: mind walking as sorry, what is the strategy of carbon dominance? 18 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: So no, essentially, carbon dominance is what I would call 19 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 2: what's going on in the United States just now, and 20 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: that requires a little bit of unparking so you can 21 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 2: focus on the politics and obviously it's Trump. Obviously, it's Maga, Obviously, 22 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,080 Speaker 2: it's bright wing populism, et cetera, et cetera. But there's 23 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: also something weird going on in all this. You probably knows, 24 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: like yesterday when the EU basically said yes, please to 25 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 2: a fifteen percent tax on everything they do. He then 26 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: went on this really weird brant about and the one 27 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 2: thing that I'll do, my Trump and the one thing 28 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 2: we'll never do is is build up windmill. The EU 29 00:01:49,240 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 2: will have no windmills in America. And he starts going 30 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 2: this whole thing about windmills, and it's just, you know, 31 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 2: you think it's bizarre, you've got a hatred against windmills, 32 00:01:56,600 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 2: but it's actually far deeper than that. And the sort 33 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: of the short version of the story goes like this, 34 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 2: where does populism and Trump and all this stuff come from. 35 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 2: Why they have an anti carbon twinge? So two things. 36 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: One is basically what you might call the strategic power 37 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: side of this. We'll park that for a minute, bullet's 38 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: come back to it. What's the domestic politics of this? 39 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 2: Go back to nineteen seventy five, and the three biggest 40 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: employers in the United States were, if I remember correctly, 41 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 2: General Moores, the company that became x on It, and 42 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 2: another big manufacturer I can't remember who the hell it was. 43 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 2: Now you go to today and what do you get you? 44 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: Basically your top three are Walmart, the Home Deco, and 45 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 2: Amazing Logistic. So they've gone from a business model for 46 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: a country that makes lots of things to ones that 47 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 2: sells lots of things, watch of which has made in 48 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 2: other places. And this is the whole the industrialization thing, 49 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: and China Shop and so on and so forth. Right, 50 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 2: and I go back to about nineteen seventy one, just 51 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: before that period, and what have you got. You've got 52 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 2: kind of an encompassing political coalition whereby one in five 53 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 2: jobs is in the auro sector and one and three 54 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 2: are unbelated sectors that feed into this. So what does 55 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 2: politics look like in this period? It looks like Tweedle, 56 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 2: dumb and tweedl day, every political scientus in the world 57 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 2: will be writing about how there's no difference between the 58 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 2: Republicans and the Democrats. They agree on everything, So what 59 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 2: are they doing. They're basically arguing over the distributions within 60 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 2: what we would call a stable growth model. And what 61 00:03:19,840 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: was that growth model? It was a carbon based growth model. 62 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 2: What powered American growth for the nineteenth century, for the 63 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 2: twentieth century, particularly postwar, is the East Texas basin. It's 64 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 2: cheap shield. It's basically having cheap fuel which powered chief electricity. 65 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 2: You can produce its scale manufacturing, so on and so forth. 66 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 2: So you have this very sort of encompassing coalition. Everybody's 67 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 2: basically part of the same growth model. Thirty percent of 68 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 2: people are working in unions. Is industrial economy. Move forwards 69 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 2: through the eighties, the nineties into the China Shop the 70 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 2: two thousands, and what have you got. You've got a 71 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 2: Republican coalition that looks like this. Start in Alaska. We've 72 00:03:56,320 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: got a north to Kora, South Dakora, Oklahoma, Kansas, East Texas, 73 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 2: through Texas, through the Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, come up to 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: West Virginia. What have you got? You've got the core 75 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 2: of the Republican states, the reddest states. What did they 76 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 2: all do? They're the residual from the old growth model. 77 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: They're the carbon coaliction. What they do is food, farms, fuel, fertilizer, feedstock, plastics, petrochemicals, manufacturing. 78 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 2: That's their core business model. So when Biden comes along 79 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 2: and says we are going to do decarbonization. They regardless 80 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 2: as an existential threat to their growth model because basically 81 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: they're going to shut them down. And you can tell 82 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 2: them all the stories about we're going to help you 83 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: transit and all this sort of stuff, but they basically 84 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 2: look at the Midwest and go, now, we don't believe 85 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 2: you will stick with ours. This is basically an existential struggle. Now, 86 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 2: part that for a second, and then think about how 87 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 2: we used to think about stranded assets. Stranded assets was 88 00:04:51,000 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 2: something that would happen to carbon assets because as the 89 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 2: world got warmer and as governments got serious about climate change, 90 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 2: they would tighten, if you will, regulations and it become 91 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 2: too expensive to have these things or produce these things, 92 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,599 Speaker 2: and companies would rationally disinvest from them, and investors would 93 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 2: disinvest from them, and they would become stranded assets, and 94 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 2: therefore they'll be we want to hold them. And that's 95 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: how you basically power a transition towards green ticket cetera, 96 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 2: et cetera. But what have you flipped that on its 97 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 2: head and you say that there's an existential struggle between 98 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 2: green and carbon asset, and we now hold the White 99 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: House and the Senate and the House. So what are 100 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,119 Speaker 2: we going to do. Well, basically, we're going to protect 101 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 2: our assets. So how do you do that? You dominate 102 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 2: the other sectors. Yeah, we're not going to ban it completely. 103 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 2: We're going to get rid of all the subsidies, We're 104 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 2: going to get rid of any scientific support. We're going 105 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 2: to lean into all the stuff that doesn't really matter. 106 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,440 Speaker 2: For example, last week was the pitch that the American 107 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 2: government's no longer going to recognized greenhouse gases in any 108 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 2: way harmful, you know, being lots of other things like this. 109 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: But essentially what they're doing is they've got a strategy 110 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: of we're going to allow you to build that windmill 111 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 2: in Texas because that'll help us keep the air conditioning on, 112 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 2: But in no way do you replace the carbon that's 113 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 2: powering the economy and moreover, that's where we get the power. 114 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 2: Go back to the power stuff. With parts of a 115 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,599 Speaker 2: while ago, that has been the sort of the secret 116 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 2: to American growth. Partly is the dollar, which I'm happy 117 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 2: to talk about, but the dollar very much rises and 118 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 2: falls historically with the price of oil. Because even though 119 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 2: Saudi for a while was the biggest producer in America, 120 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 2: is now the largest net producer. It's American oil companies, 121 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 2: it's American LNG. It's a huge part of what America does, 122 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 2: and it also gives them a huge advantage in growth. So, 123 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 2: for example, the cost of energy in the United States 124 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 2: approximately one third the cost of word is in the 125 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 2: United Kindom. So if you have that as your advantage 126 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,240 Speaker 2: and you basically are part of that coalition that sees 127 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 2: carbon is basically your strategic advantage. When the rest of 128 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 2: the world is decarbonizing, you have two choices. You can 129 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 2: either go for splendid hemispheric isolation from Greenland to Argentina 130 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 2: based on carbon, which might be one option, or you 131 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 2: can do what they're also doing, which is actively discouraged 132 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 2: through a coergon and bribery and other methods to do 133 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 2: with tariffs and others to get others not to make 134 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 2: a green transition and instead to sign very long contracts 135 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 2: for American lerg et cetera. C So, carbon dominance is 136 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 2: basically when you turn stranding assets into a political strategy, 137 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 2: and that is essentially what's going on right now. 138 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 3: So I think the phrase it's essentially you're trying to 139 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 3: frown the competitive industry that is green tech, that is 140 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 3: you know, renewable solar wind. You're trying to drown the 141 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 3: baby in the bata before it becomes established, before it 142 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 3: becomes a threat. 143 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 2: Got it. 144 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 3: And So just looking a bit to what you said 145 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 3: about the tariffs, I mean, the tariffs have been integral 146 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 3: to Trump's strategy and there's trying to erect that tariff wall. 147 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,440 Speaker 3: In their view, it seems to rebuild American industry. How 148 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 3: is that playing into this broader strategy, because, as the 149 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 3: narrative goes, tariff's a profound act of self harm. 150 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 2: Well, are they right in the sense that the problem 151 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 2: with thinking about tariffs is always has this, you know, 152 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: the economous caveat on it, which is cateris part of us. 153 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: All things remain equal, but they're never equal. So if 154 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 2: you think about the fact that corporate profits, particularly American profits, 155 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 2: but everybody's profits have never been higher. If you throw 156 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 2: up tariffs, do you think those companies can eat that 157 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 2: a little bit while reducing their margins. Yes. In other words, 158 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 2: things don't remain equal. So some of it will end 159 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 2: up on the American consumer, some of it will end 160 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: up in producers. You'll be able to effectively tax those 161 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 2: producers and then redistribute that cash. They've already raised a 162 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: couple of hundred billion with it. It's not exactly chump change. 163 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: In terms of the broader strategy. You know, will have 164 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 2: fifteen percent tariffs lead to American reindustrillization. No, WITHUD have 165 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,719 Speaker 2: fifty percent tariff, Well, yeah, because you'd stop trading and 166 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 2: therefore you would literally have to make this stuff yourself. 167 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 2: So on its own as a reindustrialization vehicle, absence any 168 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: sense of investment policy or industrial policy, which you had 169 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 2: with Biden, then it's probably not going to work. But nonetheless, 170 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 2: does it sort of like work in terms of a 171 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 2: political stratage. Yes, If you think about the nineteenth century, 172 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,959 Speaker 2: what would the Republican policy towards the working class to 173 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 2: protect them the tariff, keep out foreign competition, have ruthless 174 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 2: domestic competition, keep your markets really flexible, keep your energy 175 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 2: costs really really low. In fact, use carbon to make 176 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,599 Speaker 2: them the lowest in the world. Never mind all this 177 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 2: stuff about the level ased cost of electricity being cheaper 178 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 2: with green stuff. If we really pumping off carbon, we 179 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 2: can be competitive, and we can do that in such 180 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,680 Speaker 2: a way that we can ignore and basically obviate this 181 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 2: green transition. 182 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 3: Why I'm with NATA kind of the picture be on 183 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 3: the u US for a moment. But there was something 184 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 3: you mentioned in your talk to Ansul of Economics which 185 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 3: was a lot of this stuff that works around the 186 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 3: idea of I think you used the praise minimum viable coalitions. 187 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 2: Yeah, minimal winning coalitions. 188 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, yes, So what is that? Just to be clear 189 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 3: about what that is. 190 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 2: So the basic if you think about politics under that 191 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 2: old Regima talked about when Democrats are tuedo dominic, Republicans 192 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: of tweedle d how did you win elections? That's when 193 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 2: political sciences in love with the thing called median voter theorem. 194 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 2: So that's some dude who's in the middle, and they 195 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 2: really have middle preferences, And because votes are very large 196 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 2: number of things, ultimately you have a kind of quasi 197 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 2: normal distribution of preferences, which is to say, there are 198 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 2: very few communists and very few fascists, and most people 199 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 2: are just uncle nice in the middle. So you need 200 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 2: to move your polity free towards captain as many Uncle 201 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: nice as possible, and the Republicans will by saying, hey, 202 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 2: taxis are good for Uncle Nice. And then the Democrats 203 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 2: will say, no, actually, redistribution is really good for Uncle Nice, 204 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 2: and that's what we should do. But essentially Tweedle Dumb 205 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 2: and Twio default over this median voter. The median voter 206 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 2: has largely disappeared. What you've basically got are the action 207 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 2: is no longer in a sort of normal distribution. What 208 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 2: you've got are very hetrogeneous preferences. And what you try 209 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 2: and do is build a minimum winning coalition rather than 210 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 2: an encompassing coalition. You basically go to your base and 211 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 2: work out from the tale to as far into the 212 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,719 Speaker 2: middle as you need to go, basically working with your activists, 213 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 2: working with gerrymandering districts, working with keeping them agitated and 214 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 2: angry all the time. And in that way, the Republicans 215 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,360 Speaker 2: have been much more successful than the Democrats. And it's 216 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 2: that ability to build up minimum winning coalition and keep 217 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: that going means that you don't have to compromise anything 218 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 2: with the other side. 219 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 3: So taking those ideas, something I was picking up on 220 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 3: my reporting in isolation was that there have been attempts 221 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 3: elsewhere to replicate this strategy. I mean, we see this 222 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 3: kind of in New Zealand, where the government's coupled together. 223 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 3: We see this in Australia with different Australian states that 224 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 3: Queensland now is currently doing something similar and also it 225 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: looks like the UK might be going down that path. Yeah, 226 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 3: and so my question is how does it say, how 227 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 3: do we see this kind of bawling out from the 228 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 3: US to other places right now? 229 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 2: Well, there's a way in which it doesn't work, which is, 230 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 2: if you really want to destroy a right wing political movement, 231 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 2: just get endorsed by Trump. So you know, that's what 232 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 2: Albanize showed us, That's what Canada showed us, right, I 233 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 2: mean that was basically like you cut, Trump comes out 234 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 2: for the other guy and it's a kiss of death. 235 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 2: On the other hand, there are deep, sort of endogenous 236 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: reasons for these countries to embrace this type of politics. 237 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:12,200 Speaker 2: So what is this type of politics? The type of 238 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 2: politics basically says three things. There's a self serving elite 239 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,719 Speaker 2: called the top ten to twenty percent. They've run off 240 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 2: with all the cash. We've got nothing and screw them. 241 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:24,240 Speaker 2: They hate us, and that's up. Basically, there's one is 242 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 2: basically that. Then there's a sort of nationalist ethno nationalist 243 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 2: version of that. That's the anti immigration thing is basically 244 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,000 Speaker 2: all these foreigners coming in and living off welfare, and 245 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 2: when the one paying taxes, so on and so forth. 246 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 2: And then there's the anti green one. Right, it's all 247 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 2: a hoax and we don't need to do this. And 248 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 2: those different factions coalesce because all of those are basically 249 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 2: whether the legitimate gradiances are not a leave up to 250 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: whoever's listening to this, but they work together as a set, 251 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 2: and they're all real things in each of these countries. 252 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 2: Is it the case that basically, in the eyes of many, 253 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 2: a self serving political coal that cares more about decarbonization 254 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 2: than the fact of your kid's schools falling down? Yes, 255 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: what about wage stagnation, Well, it hasn't hammed for the 256 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 2: top twenty percent, it's hard for everyone else. They don't 257 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 2: seem to give a damn about us. Yes, right, So 258 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 2: those conditions are there, and what Trump has done is 259 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: to provide a model of how to do this, of 260 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 2: what this is and what these agents should be thinking about, 261 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,959 Speaker 2: et cetera. And they'll have different national cadences and different 262 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 2: national flavors, but the formula is essentially the same. So 263 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 2: we have this world in which those grievances have real valance, 264 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 2: if you will, for people. They mobilize around them to 265 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: a certain extent. The United States provides a ten plate 266 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 2: for it, but you have to then dial it back 267 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,959 Speaker 2: in terms of particularities of your local economy, et cetera. 268 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 2: They can't just take these ideas off the shelf and 269 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 2: dump them down and do the playbook. They have to 270 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: be played with in certain ways. And then does the 271 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: figure of Trump himself, who is immensely unpopular side of 272 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 2: the United States and actually inside the United States. So 273 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 2: that kind of cuts the other way. But you know, 274 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 2: that's sort of the broadway in which I think about it. 275 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 3: So when we think about this as kind of international conservatives, 276 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 3: we might find parallels between places like Hungary, the US, 277 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 3: and other places around, but ultimately these are American ideas 278 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 3: and they don't necessarily transplant as easily to other countries. 279 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 3: Other communities are the places. 280 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you think about Hungary, right, I 281 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 2: mean Orban's big thing, along with a lot of the 282 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 2: sort of nationalists right in Eastern Europe. It began with 283 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 2: central banks. It began basically a central banks as agents 284 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 2: of the money lenders and all of the antisemitic tropes 285 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: that went with that. They're sort of the anti Surus thing, 286 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: et cetera. Then it became sort of, you know, along 287 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 2: with putting the much more nationalist version of this. Hungary 288 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 2: then became very critical of the EU and then the 289 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 2: ethno nationalism et cetera, et cetera. So there's a playbook 290 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: which has developed very much uniquely in those places and 291 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 2: it predates Trump. But what Trump did was basically take 292 00:14:53,920 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 2: this kind of latent call it of basically angry working 293 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,400 Speaker 2: class people and low and middle class people who had 294 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 2: been hit by a combination of financial crisis, austerity, wage stagnation, 295 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: and a seeming favoritism towards foreigners rather than the domestic population. 296 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 2: And he was able to weaponize that. And that's been 297 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: layered on top of those politics and other places. So 298 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 2: again to think of, you know, the La Pen, La 299 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 2: Pen's very different, The National Front's very different to this. 300 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 2: They've talked very much towards the center to be left 301 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 2: economically but right on immigration, et cetera. It's quite different 302 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 2: from the Maga approach box in Spain, very much more 303 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 2: like the Maga approach reform. It's really kind of a 304 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 2: vehicle for forage rather than anything else. So there's a 305 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 2: trumpy aspect of this, but the politics aren't particularly maga 306 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 2: in that respect. So again it's a very mixed bag. 307 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 2: What's interesting is at this moment you see this everywhere 308 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 2: in different versions, and it behooves us to go world. Why. 309 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 3: One of the questions I had was, I mean, so 310 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 3: we have this kind of international conservatives and building, we 311 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 3: have this template being set up by Trump and his friends. 312 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 3: We also have this strategy of carbon dominance that we've outlined. 313 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 3: But opposed to that, we have the example apparently being 314 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 3: said by China, where China is moving very fast to 315 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 3: mean I think in May, and the sort of Sweden's 316 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,240 Speaker 3: worth of solo it's the people is expected in China 317 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 3: by twenty twenty seven. I could have that wrong, but 318 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 3: and yeah, and we're starting to see you know, kind 319 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 3: of incredible statistics coming out about you know, the right 320 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 3: baby production battle. 321 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 2: Of like eleven fifteen sectors all the rest. 322 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 3: But absolutely, and then we had the US Secretary of 323 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 3: General just the other day of at least that report 324 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 3: basically saying, hey, solar is still the cheapest thing ever 325 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 3: and batteries are coming down and everything's changing now. So 326 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 3: when we view what's going on in the US in 327 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 3: opposition to China, what are we looking at? 328 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 2: So this is where you move out to the other 329 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 2: side of Trump's circle, away from the national conservatives, the 330 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 2: ban and wing, the marginally tailors, and you move away 331 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 2: from the finance people who are interested in stable coins 332 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: and sort of reworking the role of the dollar, and 333 00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 2: you get back to those folks used to be mainstream Republicans, 334 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 2: the ones that are like Marco Rubio. And you said, well, 335 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 2: what are they worry about? What they worry about is China, 336 00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:11,399 Speaker 2: And they worry about China in the following sense they 337 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 2: are if you will. And my friend and colleague Dan 338 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 2: Brisco must get a shout out for this because he's 339 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 2: writing an offhead on this and I just read it, 340 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 2: so it's in my head. But essentially I think Dan's 341 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,959 Speaker 2: right on this, that that group of people are what 342 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:26,280 Speaker 2: you might call really hardcore form policy of realists, and 343 00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 2: they're a very materialistic bunch of realists in the sense 344 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 2: that they've got no time for America. Is the shining 345 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 2: light on the hill or any of that sort of stuff. 346 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 2: This is naked self interest and what is naked self 347 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 2: interest dictate The history is written by the people who 348 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: control the source of energy. The nineteenth century, it was 349 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,960 Speaker 2: coal that was the United Kingdom with a technological lead. 350 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 2: Once it moved to oil and gas, it became the 351 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 2: United States. Russia was able to maintain itself in large 352 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 2: part of the coal war because it was completely self 353 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 2: sufficient and oil and gas. And if you control that stuff, 354 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 2: then then you know you control the future. But if 355 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 2: you've got a world in which greenhouse gases and other 356 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 2: warming agents are seriously threatening everything from biowebs to human survival, 357 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 2: then you have to be carbonized. Now, whoever gets there first, 358 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:16,000 Speaker 2: whoever locks that in, whoever creates the tech, they're the 359 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,479 Speaker 2: ones that are going to be the next hedge and one. 360 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 2: They're the ones that are going to be selling the 361 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 2: stuff you need to survive to everybody else. And Biden's 362 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 2: crew recognized this and wanted had they won the election, 363 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 2: their idea would have been IRA two, IRA three, build 364 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 2: on this, build more and more, actually get ahead of 365 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 2: the technological curve, try and sort of anticipate before China 366 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 2: gets their way to go. And instead what we did 367 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: was we voted in Trump and we basically said to 368 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 2: the tech lords, why don't you just do ai instead, 369 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:45,159 Speaker 2: because I'm sure it'll end up being something someday. So 370 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 2: that's kind of where it's ended up. And we've seeded 371 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,719 Speaker 2: that to China. Now have you seed that to China? 372 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 2: And you're a foreign policy realist, what do you do? 373 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 2: You have to stop them. This is why they're serious 374 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 2: about Taiwan, is why they're not spoiling for a fight, 375 00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 2: quite willing to have one. Now, the interesting thing about 376 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 2: the Crump coalition is these people are quite vocal and 377 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: quite a large prominent part of it, but so far 378 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 2: they seem to be completely sidelined because neither the tech 379 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 2: laws nor the National Conservatives really want to get to 380 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 2: a shooting More of the China they're quite fine to 381 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 2: have the Communist Party is the ideological enemy and so 382 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 2: on and so forth, and they're pushing green tech around 383 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 2: the world, and it's all just bullshitting. We shouldn't be 384 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 2: doing it. Why don't you love our coal industry? Et cetera, 385 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 2: et cetera. But they don't really want to get into 386 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 2: a shooting match that could be the final shooting match. 387 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 2: So there's real tensions in this coalition. But the basic 388 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 2: idea is whoever controls the energy infrastructure in the twenty 389 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 2: first century runs the world. And the Americans are very 390 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 2: scared it's not going to be oil and gas, and 391 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,479 Speaker 2: they're doing everything they can to make sure that it 392 00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 2: is well. 393 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 3: On that in terms of material reality that this is 394 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 3: describing here, I mean, one of the things that is 395 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 3: very interesting to me is you have China. I think 396 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 3: there was a report out yesterday the day before that 397 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 3: China is now basically planning to a limit it's oil imports. 398 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 3: At the same time, you have Japan basically buying more 399 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 3: gas than what it needs and now that it's Nucleus 400 00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 3: timing back on and reselling Australian gas wiolets on the water. 401 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 3: You have Pakistan doing the same thing, and Pakistan Pakistan 402 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 3: Southwest Asian economy, considered to be one that was going 403 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 3: to be growth, is now leap progging over kind of 404 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 3: carbon acids just to solve it. You have China supplying 405 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,000 Speaker 3: evs to Africa, so you have the potential for a 406 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 3: laite throg effect there. You know, So in combination with 407 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 3: kind of the US tariffs that may drive up prices 408 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,880 Speaker 3: on steel and steel labor and the anti immigration policies 409 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 3: that compromise your ability to do skills, and the reality 410 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 3: that there are going to be a lot less people 411 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 3: buying this stuff down the track. Where does that leave 412 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 3: the US in terms of the material reality? 413 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 2: This is where the story falls apart, because at the 414 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 2: end of the day, the problem is we have too 415 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 2: much carbon. We have too many carbon assets. If you 416 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 2: start to think about the basil salt fields that you've 417 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: got off of Argentina, off of Brazil, Indonesia, Guyana, as 418 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 2: well as the LNG that you're talking about, Qatar, all 419 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 2: these other places, there's too much of this stuff. Now. 420 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 2: From the one hand, you could imagine on an argument 421 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 2: that would say, well, that's fine, because ultimately we are 422 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,160 Speaker 2: the swing producer. Saudi will still have the lowest possible price, 423 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 2: highest possible quality, but they can't do everything. There's going 424 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 2: to be a bunch of stuff we can't decarbonize in 425 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 2: any conceivable time frames, such as air travel and so 426 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 2: on and so forth. Cements a bit of a tough one. 427 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 2: So we're still going to be able to do that, 428 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,640 Speaker 2: and if price is fall that's great because that gives 429 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 2: us a way of staying in the game vias ave 430 00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: via these alternative green technologies, But ultimately, if it becomes 431 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 2: so cheap that you can't really make a profit out 432 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 2: of it, right, ultimately the capex is bigger than the opics, 433 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: then you've got a bit of a problem. And ultimately 434 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 2: that thing that usually kills green transitions or experimental technology 435 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 2: is the valley of death between basically piloting and then 436 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 2: getting it to scale and then making some money off 437 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,040 Speaker 2: of it. You get a weird version of that, whereby 438 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 2: what's the point in opening up another fracking field in 439 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: Oklahoma if at the end of the day the world 440 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 2: price is twenty bucks because everything's so saturated. So in 441 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 2: a sense, it's sort of double edged. You want the cheapness. 442 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 2: It keeps you in the game, but if it gets 443 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: too cheap, you knock out your own producers. And also, 444 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 2: at the end of the day, if it is the case, 445 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 2: the barer technology gets better, et cetera, et cetera. And 446 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: China strategically just doesn't want to deal with the vulnerabilities 447 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 2: that come with oil, and India also falls very much 448 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 2: into this category. India's neuralgia has always been oil imports 449 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: and the ability to pay for them. So if you 450 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 2: get India, Pakistan, China, the rest of Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia, 451 00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 2: Indonesia making a green transition, the Americans, unfortunately, they are 452 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 2: going to be the last people hanging around driving F 453 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 2: one fifties that cost two hundred thousand dollars. 454 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 3: One kind of question is something I want to ask 455 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 3: because I feel that it's always left Holiday's analysis. What 456 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 3: do you see as the role of you know, what 457 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 3: is called greenflation, you know, the price of stuff rising 458 00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,639 Speaker 3: as climate impactums change and things become more variable when 459 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 3: you've got disasters. It is something that seems to be 460 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 3: universally recognized that climate change will drive up the cost 461 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 3: of stuff over time. But it and we also know, 462 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,640 Speaker 3: you know, you can look at the Biden administration where 463 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: inflation spikes kind of become the mandate of heaven, where 464 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 3: if it's spikes, you loose government pretty quickly. And as 465 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 3: you say, I think you've got a very good phrase 466 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 3: of this nature always batch last. And so if we're 467 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 3: seeing as an inevitability, how does that figure into this 468 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 3: politics as a factor. 469 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: So if you had Biden administration two point or that 470 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 2: was continuing down this path, you would take a leaf 471 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 2: out of a Deblavator's book. You would build up buffer stocks. 472 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 2: You would try and think about things that you need 473 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 2: to have strategic supplies of so you could release them 474 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 2: if there were shocks, et cetera. But the problem with 475 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 2: that is that you didn't win the election. And the 476 00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 2: second thing is buffer stocks are really expensive. You could 477 00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,920 Speaker 2: be doing something else with the money, and that might 478 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:04,199 Speaker 2: not be the thing that you run out of. So 479 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 2: what is there to do? Well? Ultimately, what you try 480 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 2: and do with these things is to have options. In 481 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 2: the sense of optionality. You want to cover your downside 482 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 2: as much as you can and then position yourself in 483 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 2: such a way that you might get the upside on 484 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 2: it if it comes to pass. What might that look like? Well, 485 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 2: in terms of let's say agriculture in the United States, 486 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 2: absolutely the case that some places have become too hot 487 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,600 Speaker 2: for particular strands of wheat. Okay, so what do you do? 488 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,119 Speaker 2: You move the wheat production elsewhere, and you start to 489 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 2: do something else in the place. You plan ahead, You 490 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 2: try and get ahead of the curve. Is that a 491 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 2: full proof solution to this? Absolutely not. We already have 492 00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,160 Speaker 2: estimates from the prop the Potsdam Institute for climate research 493 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,840 Speaker 2: on greenflation, you think it's already significant. So a recent 494 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 2: European report that essentially said it's showing up already. It 495 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 2: takes about sixty days from a weather shock to basically 496 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 2: show up in food prices. So as these patterns continue, 497 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 2: the problem is the nonlinear in them. You don't know 498 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:02,840 Speaker 2: what's going to happen and when it's going to happen, 499 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 2: in which part of the BioWeb is going to be impact. 500 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 2: It becomes very difficult to cover that with any type 501 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 2: of options. So there's no great solution to it, and 502 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,959 Speaker 2: it's baked into the cake. What does this do to politics? 503 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 2: I think it's already there in the sense that for 504 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 2: a couple of years, five years ago, six years ago, 505 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 2: you couldn't respectably stand up and say, unless you just 506 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,280 Speaker 2: want to be a crack, that windmills were evil. And 507 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 2: when there was a period whereby you had people like 508 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 2: the head of the EFD railing against windmills and somehow 509 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 2: this was okay. It was like green fatigue or something 510 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,479 Speaker 2: like this. I think now in Europe, when every summer 511 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,240 Speaker 2: is hotter than the prior one, when there are wildfires 512 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 2: in Scotland which never ever happens right when people's actual 513 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 2: experience is finally, oh, it's getting really hot in here, 514 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 2: isn't it? And none of us are their conditioning. I 515 00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 2: think that tempers down the absurd claims of anti climate 516 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 2: action and basically allows us to refocus. So I think 517 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 2: that sort of you know, at the end of the day, 518 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 2: what's the phrase, nothing gets your attention better than pain? 519 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 2: Right that you know there is something to that, and 520 00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 2: it has a way of filtering out the politics. Quite 521 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 2: how Trump deals with this, we don't know. I mean, 522 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 2: you don't know if he's going to be done by 523 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 2: the midterms. You don't know if he's going to be 524 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 2: two terms, if this lasts, if the Democrats are the 525 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 2: shambles that they are just now and continue to be. 526 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 2: So the problem being that as the party of the 527 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 2: state is CO who kind of likes things the way 528 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 2: they are, it's very hard for him to argue for 529 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 2: anything else that that just hands it in a sense 530 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,119 Speaker 2: of the Republicans. And if we get two terms of 531 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,359 Speaker 2: these guys, then that's when you get the full carbon 532 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 2: dominance strategy. And by that point you have seen such 533 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 2: a big break with China, the rest, with East Asia, 534 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 2: with South Asia and the world will be very much 535 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 2: two different places. One that's still holding onto carbon trying 536 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 2: to promote its use, and one that's basically postcarbon. 537 00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 3: So essentially that moral luck. 538 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, it's part of the pen If the Democrats 539 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 2: came back in on a landslide and we're able to 540 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 2: get two back to back victories and we're able to 541 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 2: do a whole restoration of green industrial policy. The damage 542 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 2: that these people have done in the meantime is so large. 543 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: Think about it from the point of view basic R 544 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,080 Speaker 2: and D. You're threatening top universities with funding, You're threatening 545 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,159 Speaker 2: with one growing students. You're banning f one visas for 546 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 2: your top researchers. You're basically saying we don't care about 547 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 2: this stuff. So if you're one of those researchers, one 548 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,080 Speaker 2: of those scientists, why would you want to be here, 549 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 2: particularly if all the options somewhere else. There's a way 550 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,840 Speaker 2: in which they're embedding policies which even if you get 551 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,359 Speaker 2: a change of administration, it's very hard to undo. The 552 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 2: trust has gone. 553 00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 3: It's funny you say that. I'm and not to get 554 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,160 Speaker 3: too perertial, but a lot of the stuff that's happening 555 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 3: with Trump makes me sometimes think, and this is unscientific, 556 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 3: but about what's happening in the US is the Australianization 557 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 3: of US politics, because we went through a similar pace 558 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 3: with this in twenty thirteen with the election of Tony 559 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 3: Abbott and the Raiser Gain that came through and just 560 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 3: happed the budget and just cut everything to pieces, and 561 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 3: the decisions that were made done have profound changes and 562 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 3: as you describe, locked in a series of policies. But 563 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 3: you know that continued to exist for the decade of 564 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:20,199 Speaker 3: a three different coalition administrations. And what it seems to 565 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 3: be the response from the center left, which is Labor 566 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 3: Party here soorts to essentially weight them out, and that 567 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:29,359 Speaker 3: the approach seemed to have been We're going to present 568 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 3: the reasonable, the sensible response to this. When all this 569 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,600 Speaker 3: fizzles out, will be able to step into the breach 570 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 3: promise to rebuild. And the first term of the Albernesi 571 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:42,640 Speaker 3: administration was very much just about repairing, was about putting 572 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 3: back things, and which has left a lot of people 573 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 3: very jaded and frustrated in many ways about kind of 574 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 3: where things are going. And I wonder whether the Democrats 575 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 3: are essentially playing the same strategy weight this out. 576 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 2: I think some of them would like to wait it out. 577 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 2: But the problem is if you have someone that's in power, 578 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 2: like you know, before the Razor gam you had Howard 579 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 2: as well, who you know, was not exactly a shining 580 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 2: example of public investment. When you've had that degree of damage, 581 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 2: you do have to spend a lot of time doing repair, 582 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,479 Speaker 2: and it's a bit where it's kind of obvious to 583 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: everyone that this is wrong and it's okay to go 584 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,440 Speaker 2: and do that stuff. Britain finds itself in a really 585 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 2: weird position because that's exactly where they are with the 586 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 2: thirteen years of the Conservative But the government is so 587 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 2: afraid of its own fiscal shadow and so timid that 588 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 2: they literally are hamstrung not by anything except their own 589 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: fear of the bond market. The bond market itself is 590 00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 2: not the problem, but just afraid of it, so they 591 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,240 Speaker 2: are unable to do it, and that really gets people 592 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,360 Speaker 2: pissed off and shaded. I suspect what's happening in Australia 593 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: is where the Democrats would like to find themselves. That 594 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,760 Speaker 2: is to say, we would be back in power, we 595 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 2: would be credible, people would recognize the damage. I don't 596 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 2: think America is there yet. I think a lot of 597 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: people don't think at all of it this is damage. 598 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 2: You think this is what we need to do. There 599 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 2: is a certain logic to it. If you basically are 600 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,680 Speaker 2: a kind of realists in the international relation sense, and 601 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 2: you think the most important thing isn't how the global 602 00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,640 Speaker 2: welfare optimum is generated. You think it's how America does. 603 00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 2: In America should be running things, then a strategy of 604 00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 2: carbon dominance and at least hemispheric dominance would make sense 605 00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 2: to you. And allowing China to run off with everything 606 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 2: is not what you want. So it depends what you 607 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 2: value at the end of the day. 608 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 3: And Mark, before I let you go, We've talked to 609 00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 3: them many things today. But is there anything else you're 610 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 3: think we've missed all you want to highlight or bring 611 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 3: out in this conversation. 612 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 2: I think it's a really interesting one is to think 613 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 2: about the fact that while China continues to basically dominate 614 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 2: sector after sector to invest in battery technology, etc. They've 615 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,960 Speaker 2: got an approach to AI, but they're not betting the 616 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 2: farm on it, and the United States is betting the 617 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 2: farm on it. And this is very different from what 618 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,720 Speaker 2: you usually do. Usually, what the United States does is 619 00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 2: run a kind of hidden developmental state through universities, through 620 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 2: agencies like DARPA, Defense Advanced Research Projects, and then you know, 621 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 2: we make these things and then they spill out into 622 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 2: the private sector. And the great example is Mariana Masakoto 623 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 2: did the cigner booking the competition state. All the key 624 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 2: technologies in the iPhone were basically made it in public 625 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 2: and private universities with federal money, and they had defense applications. 626 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 2: And then Steve comes along, put it in a shiny 627 00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 2: box and changes the world. Right, And this is very different. 628 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 2: This is now a part where we've got these massive 629 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 2: companies whose investment budgets are orders of magnitude bigger than 630 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 2: anything that the universities could muster or even the public 631 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 2: sector would put out. And they're run by man children 632 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,160 Speaker 2: with massive egos. So if you think about meta, I mean, 633 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:39,880 Speaker 2: Meta has squandered almost a trillion dollars on the metaverse. 634 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 3: I mean it's just. 635 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 4: Bollocks, right, the Cambridge's legs no, exactly and exactly, and 636 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 4: you've got you know, so you have this sort of 637 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 4: incredible arms race for this thing called generative AI which 638 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:52,800 Speaker 4: is never going to happen. 639 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 2: It's a complete camera. You don't get count. You know, 640 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 2: it's it's almost a very Soviet way of thinking. It's like, 641 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 2: if we have enough of a quantum of transformation, you 642 00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 2: get a quality of transformation. Like, no, that's not how 643 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 2: it happens. But nonetheless, we'll spend all this money on 644 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 2: this sort of stuff and it's insane arngeries and that 645 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,480 Speaker 2: the people at the top still can't tell you what 646 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 2: the final use case is. Meanwhile, China is just going 647 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 2: sector after sector, Let's do batteries, let's do this, let's 648 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,480 Speaker 2: do this. It really is the strange moment where we 649 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 2: the cult of the entrepreneur in the United States has 650 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 2: blinded the country to what actually we need to do 651 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 2: in long term investment, and we've bet the househol in 652 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 2: this one critical technology, which, as far as I've concerned, 653 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 2: all it seems to be able to do is to 654 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 2: bugger up higher education and people's ability to write things. So, 655 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,200 Speaker 2: you know, that would be my side worry on top 656 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 2: of all this stuff. 657 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,920 Speaker 3: But there's a there's an aspect to that where the 658 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 3: use of AI appears. If if we look at this 659 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,080 Speaker 3: in terms of power I've written about this actually for 660 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,480 Speaker 3: Droid where there was an extension to which II the 661 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 3: next link in the evolutionary trend from the way economic 662 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 3: modeling was used to argue against doing anything about climate change, 663 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 3: which was another Australian pioneering invention. By the way, you 664 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 3: can see how you know, the hype and the focus 665 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 3: and artificial intelligence as a climate solution and as it 666 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 3: will fix everything, it will create new materials is very 667 00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 3: much a distraction in a very convenient way, to turn 668 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 3: people away from investing in and focusing on to just 669 00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 3: going all in on. You know, wind solar batteries. 670 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 2: Got out sodium batteries, you get rid of the need 671 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 2: for thermal protection. The cost of EV's dropped by thirty percent. 672 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 2: It's very simple. It's not nearly as sexy as we 673 00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 2: are making god box. 674 00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 3: And with that that might be a good point to 675 00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 3: end on. Mark, thank you so much for take making 676 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 3: a box. 677 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:00,760 Speaker 2: P