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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: That's goal a winning streak.

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Speaker 3: Okay, play what's up the general nation? Welcome to the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. This is the MLB Opening Day betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm stucky and joining me today is Colin Wilson and

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Speaker 3: Sean Zarillo. In less than twenty four hours, were sweating

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Speaker 3: bullpens in the regular season for the first time. Maybe

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Speaker 3: some weather in the thirties. What's going on? Zilla? Oh man,

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Speaker 3: I'm excited.

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Speaker 4: We got a full slate of games tomorrow, a bunch

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Speaker 4: of pictures worthwhile watching a bunch of pictures worth fading

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Speaker 4: like Bumpgarter, who has emphasized the bum in his name lately.

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Speaker 4: So I'm excited. I'm excited to get into it. Show

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Speaker 4: them a lot of value on totals, not a lot

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Speaker 4: of value on money lines as it yet, but got

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Speaker 4: to look into the weather situation and figure out if

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Speaker 4: these totals are worth playing, because we've got some early

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Speaker 4: spring weather that's a little bit blustery out there.

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Speaker 3: In a couple of these parts, Yep, we'll get to

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Speaker 3: all of that. We'll go through a lot of these games.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk like undervalued overvalued pictures. We'll answer some questions

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Speaker 3: that I got from some of you as well, and

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Speaker 3: then we'll close up with just some futures or season

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Speaker 3: long crops that still have value. Colin, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: If I hear one more time that the Royals lineup

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Speaker 3: is underrated, which actually grew, but it's no longer underrated.

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Speaker 3: If every single person in the entire country says the

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Speaker 3: Royals lineup is underrated, the people just think it's a

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Speaker 3: good lineup. It's no longer underrated.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be awful. Yeah, that's true.

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Speaker 5: But I mean, the thing is is Bobby Wood Junior

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Speaker 5: got called back down.

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Speaker 2: It's funny.

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Speaker 5: The Triple aaa are going to all hang out in

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Speaker 5: Northwest Arkansas for the first month of the season before

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Speaker 5: und league games start playing. So Bobby woit's going to

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Speaker 5: hang out there until this Royals lineup is not underrated anymore.

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Speaker 5: But hey, when you got one hundred dose, you're batting seven,

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Speaker 5: that can jack the soul Scelelaria's bat and sixth the biggest.

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Speaker 2: Thing I'm looking forward to.

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Speaker 5: On opening day we start off a Yankee Stadium, ti

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Speaker 5: Oscar Hernandez season starts and the wind is blowing out

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Speaker 5: sixteen miles an hour.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of weather.

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Speaker 3: To get to. I actually would rather make the argument

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Speaker 3: with the Royals, like is there rotation underrated? I want

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Speaker 3: to see, you know, minors' velocities up. I want to

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Speaker 3: see if Junus if you had I think he added

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Speaker 3: a cutter, Like is that the third pitch it's been missing?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: The rules are an intriguing team.

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Speaker 6: Hey guys, this is Matt the producer.

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Speaker 7: Just an FYI, Stucky, Kellen and Sorillo are going to

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Speaker 7: go through every game in order. If you're looking for

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Speaker 7: information on just one specific game, just check the episode

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Speaker 7: description and the minute marker for that game is included

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Speaker 7: if you just want to skip ahead to one game.

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Speaker 6: Thanks for listening. Good luck on opening day.

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Speaker 3: Let's start off with the first game of the day.

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Speaker 3: I know that most of you degenerates are gonna probably

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Speaker 3: bet one of these first two games, regardless if you

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Speaker 3: have an edge or not. We'll start with Jays at Yankees.

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Speaker 3: We have ru at Cole, Garrett Cole minus one seventy

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Speaker 3: one over under eight. You go back to last year.

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Speaker 3: I think these teams are basically neck, and I think

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Speaker 3: the Jay's finished one game behind the Yankees. No springer

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Speaker 3: for the Jays, no voight for the Yankees. Rio has

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Speaker 3: just been a model of consistency over the past couple

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Speaker 3: of years. He looked good in the spring. This is

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Speaker 3: not a velocity guy. His great command, he's five pitches,

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Speaker 3: he's just he's gonna miss barrels and he's very consistent.

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Speaker 3: He's twenty six and ten with a two point three

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Speaker 3: ERI since twenty eighteen fit x fifth. That they're all

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Speaker 3: steady right around three really impressed me last year for

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Speaker 3: switching parks in leagues. And he's a pretty even split

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Speaker 3: sky because he's an elite change good curve, doesn't really

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Speaker 3: throw a slider, not a power bastball, so you don't

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Speaker 3: I know, he's a lefty, but he's basically an even

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Speaker 3: split skuy. Cole obviously dominant, looked good in spring, including

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Speaker 3: one outing against the Jays. These are two very reliable

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Speaker 3: starting pitchers. The questions are about both bullpens, right, so

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Speaker 3: you have the Yankees, won't have Chapman, he suspended to gainst.

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Speaker 3: Britain is out for a few months. Justin Wilson left

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Speaker 3: the final spring appearance with soreness. So now you're down

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Speaker 3: to like Chad Green and Darren O'Day. How much do

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Speaker 3: you really need the bullpen with Garrick Cole we'll find out.

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Speaker 3: And then with the Jays, I started to actually like

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Speaker 3: like this bullpen a lot if Kirby Yates was healthy

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Speaker 3: and himself. But now you don't have you don't have

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Speaker 3: the eight, so everyone moves down some. You're gonna have Vermano,

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Speaker 3: who might end up being the closer. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if they've officially named anyone, but Doulas Vermano Yates like

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Speaker 3: that order. I mean that that's really intriguing me. Now

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Speaker 3: with the Yates, there are some questions about the Jays

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Speaker 3: bullpen and their rotation. They have a lot of injuries there,

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Speaker 3: Pierce and Thomas, Robbie.

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Speaker 2: Ray, so they're gonna need a lot from Real.

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Speaker 3: They'renna need to stay healthy, give them innings. It's an

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Speaker 3: intriguing first game between two teams that should be at

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Speaker 3: least in the conversation for a playoff spot through most

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Speaker 3: of the season. Zreal, I'll start with you any value here,

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Speaker 3: there's weather to mention, just any general thoughts, updated thoughts

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Speaker 3: on either one of these teams as well.

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Speaker 4: If you have any I have the Yankees projector about

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Speaker 4: sixty percent here. This is one of two games on

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Speaker 4: Opening Day where I'm probably showing slight value on both

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Speaker 4: the money line and a total. Colin mentioned win blowing

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Speaker 4: out fifteen miles an hour to that short porch and

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Speaker 4: right field the Yankee Stadium. So I have the total

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Speaker 4: projective up at about eight point four eight point three five.

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Speaker 3: You could bet over seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: Right now, I'm trying to see if I can get

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Speaker 4: a little bit better juice, probably like a minus one

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Speaker 4: of five instead of a minus one ten before I

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Speaker 4: hit that, and then the Blue Jays. If I'm able

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Speaker 4: to get the Blue Jays at plus one seventy or better,

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Speaker 4: I'm definitely willing to take a small shot against Garrett Call.

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Speaker 3: On opening Day. It's just opening day.

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Speaker 4: Favorites tend to run pretty well, just because you have

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Speaker 4: your number one starter on the mound, everybody's healthy, the

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Speaker 4: bullpen's rested, so generally, favorites are.

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Speaker 3: The play on opening Day.

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Speaker 4: But the teams that are showing value, the Blue Jays

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Speaker 4: are the one underdog that's kind of crept up into

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Speaker 4: range where I'm thinking about making a play.

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Speaker 3: God, are you gonna be on the Jay's just because

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Speaker 3: you want to have been on Ti Oscar.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I'm gonna stick to my guns and

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Speaker 5: about what I said a couple months ago. I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: be on the over in this game. Like Zarillo, I

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Speaker 5: project this at eight point three, so that's better than

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Speaker 5: the seven and a half. I think the one thing

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Speaker 5: that comes into play here, there's no real splits with

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Speaker 5: when you look at weighted runs created against for you

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Speaker 5: being a lefty and Garrett Cole being a righty. There's

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Speaker 5: nothing with the Yankees in Toronto lineup from last season

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Speaker 5: that says that they're you know that they excel against

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Speaker 5: those kinds of arms. But what should be into play

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Speaker 5: here is the bullpen for the Toronto Blue Jays. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I would not be surprised at all in the back

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Speaker 5: half of this game to see the Yankees go a

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Speaker 5: little bit crazy. I'm not really comfortable with what they

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Speaker 5: have in the back end of their bullpen, especially with

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Speaker 5: Rafael Dallas. Jordan Romano will see if he can handle

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Speaker 5: the role. Even if it gets to him. I'm not

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Speaker 5: even sure it can get to him. So maybe first

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Speaker 5: three innings it's cold, maybe there's no runs, but I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think the runs are going to be a plenty here.

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Speaker 5: I like the over seven and a half. One thing

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Speaker 5: to look for with the Jays. Robbie Ray has been

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Speaker 5: tearing it up in spring training. Everything that we've always

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Speaker 5: fallen into the trap with Robbie Ray and that heater

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Speaker 5: that he throws, he's had it all clicking in camp.

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Speaker 2: So I think he's a guy I'll be betting on

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Speaker 2: day one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he's banged up now though, but yeah,

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Speaker 3: he was looking better. He was trying to change his

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Speaker 3: delivery last year and it was a disaster. He couldn't

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Speaker 3: locate anything. We've always known he's had nasty stuff. But

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Speaker 3: if he actually has worked out his delivery and can

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Speaker 3: throw strikes consistently, he'll be an interesting look. It scares

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Speaker 3: me to bet an over on opening day now. Granted

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Speaker 3: both the bullpens are banged up, like you don't have

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Speaker 3: the eighths, you don't have a Chattan, you don't have Britain.

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Speaker 3: But on Open Day with rested pens with two aces

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Speaker 3: on the mound, when it's like thirty five degrees and

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Speaker 3: it's all personal bias and some of it it's like real,

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Speaker 3: but obviously it's like gets baked into thelignment as well.

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Speaker 3: But I just remember playing baseball as a kid when

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Speaker 3: it was cold and the last thing I ever wanted

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Speaker 3: to do was hit, and like hurt to hit, and

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Speaker 3: I'm like, oh my, I can't imagine playing like thirty

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Speaker 3: degree weather. One thing the worth bedgetting is Colin You

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Speaker 3: mentioned splits. Just keep this in mind with like lefties

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Speaker 3: and right like, Rio is not I said this before,

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Speaker 3: not a big like the Yankees. I think Project is

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Speaker 3: a really good hitting team against left handed pitching.

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Speaker 2: But Rio is just like I.

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Speaker 3: Said, he change up guy, curve guy, so he's not

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Speaker 3: going to have huge platoons splits. So it's not really

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Speaker 3: that big of a concern here. All right, Let's move

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Speaker 3: on to the other early game tomorrow, Indians at Tigers.

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Speaker 3: You want to talk about pitchers who had completely different

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Speaker 3: years last year, so I was starting on opening day,

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Speaker 3: you have your raigning side Young Award winner in Shane

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Speaker 3: Bieber and the pitcher who had the worst ra among

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Speaker 3: all qualified starters and gave up the most home runs

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Speaker 3: among all qualified starters in Matthew Boyd and will be

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Speaker 3: high six point seventy one and at fifteen home runs

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Speaker 3: last year, home runs have been and his issue. Apparently

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Speaker 3: he's worked with Drive Line in the offseason to work

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Speaker 3: on his change up, and there's been some promising reports

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Speaker 3: there because if he does get a really good change up,

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Speaker 3: we can use it more effectively, then he can throw

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Speaker 3: off batters. It just you know, he's mainly just been

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Speaker 3: a fastball slider guy, and he's been pretty easy to

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Speaker 3: pick up, and he gives up a ton of homers,

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Speaker 3: so we'll see if he actually can post some better

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Speaker 3: results this year. Indians have owned this series twenty five

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Speaker 3: and four against the Tigers the past two years. Hey, look,

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Speaker 3: Bieber was dominant last year. There's no other way to

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Speaker 3: put it. And he was throwing his curve ball a

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Speaker 3: lot more shocker shocker, and Indians pitcher throwing his curveball

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Speaker 3: a lot more through it over twenty five percent of

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Speaker 3: the time last year, batters hit under one hundred against it.

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Speaker 3: Apparently this year he wants to use his slider a

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Speaker 3: lot more. And the reason Bieber's become so dominant is

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Speaker 3: he has these two curves and these two sliders, and

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Speaker 3: the arm angle is so similar, but the drop is

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Speaker 3: like a foot different and I mean, his breaking stuff

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Speaker 3: is just amazing and then obviously as a good fastball

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Speaker 3: as well to go along with it. But he's working

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Speaker 3: on his slider, like wants to throw a slider a

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Speaker 3: lot more this year. That's what he was working on.

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Speaker 3: In the spring, he had like a rough outing or

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Speaker 3: two year or there when he basically just didn't throw

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Speaker 3: his curveball. So I don't know, maybe he's tweaking some

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Speaker 3: things here. And Boyd with his change up looks a

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Speaker 3: lot better and he's undervalued in the market, So I

220
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Speaker 3: don't know. Is there a value with the Tigers here?

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Speaker 3: Is it real? If anything?

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Speaker 4: I have a first five inning lean to Cleveland, you know,

223
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Speaker 4: around minus two hundred, that's like a two percent edge,

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Speaker 4: so leading to the biaber side of leading to the over.

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Speaker 3: Have that about seven point.

226
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Speaker 4: Eight I believe, you know, the wind blowing straight out

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Speaker 4: to center field fifteen miles an hour, another game being

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Speaker 4: played in the cold, So if that discourages you a

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Speaker 4: little bit, you know, I don't mind it at all.

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Speaker 4: But the total at seven and a half even money

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Speaker 4: to the over, I don't think is a bad play. Necessarily,

232
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Speaker 4: we don't really know what's going to happen with the

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Speaker 4: ball yet the new ball, the flight of the ball,

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Speaker 4: but Bieber has five of our even six. I guess

235
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Speaker 4: if he's throwing two curveballs above average pitches, let all

236
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Speaker 4: of baseball and strikeout rate last year, I think there's

237
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Speaker 4: actually some value on Bieber's prop to lead all of

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Speaker 4: baseball and strikeouts this year.

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Speaker 3: Total strikeouts obviously.

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Speaker 4: Left the battle with the grum battle with the guys

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Speaker 4: in the National League who are going to get to

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Speaker 4: face pitchers instead of having to face the National LEAGUDH

243
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Speaker 4: this year, which is kind of an underrated factor. But

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Speaker 4: instead of betting Bieber at plus three fifty to win

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Speaker 4: the Cy Young, I'd much rather bet him to lead

246
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Speaker 4: the Big League in k is it about double that number,

247
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Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty.

248
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Speaker 3: The one thing I will say, and look, you know

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Speaker 3: more about baseball than being the one thing I would

250
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Speaker 3: say is to play Devil's advocate with biaber Is. I've

251
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Speaker 3: heard maybe three or four times him, either in articles

252
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Speaker 3: or interviews, say that one of his primary focuses this

253
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Speaker 3: year is to go deeper into games, which is why

254
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Speaker 3: he's trying to use his slider more. And like two

255
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Speaker 3: years ago he was going a lot deeper in last year.

256
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Speaker 3: He just said, like everything, especially like a shortened season

257
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Speaker 3: when every pitch is so much higher leverage. He was

258
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Speaker 3: just going for so many strikeouts, and he said he

259
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Speaker 3: wants to not be as strikeout focused this year and

260
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Speaker 3: try and go deeper into games, uses defense, pitch the

261
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Speaker 3: contact a little more. So, just something to throw out

262
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Speaker 3: there that Colin, do you see anything here?

263
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Speaker 5: I see value on Boyd, not for first five, definitely

264
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Speaker 5: first five should be about minus two hundred for Bieber,

265
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Speaker 5: and I think Boyd, I'm sorry, Bieber for the full

266
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Speaker 5: game should be about minus one sixty five. And as

267
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Speaker 5: we are recording this number, this minus one ninety on

268
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Speaker 5: Biaber is dropping. So I wouldn't be surprised if that

269
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Speaker 5: continues to drop. So you know, I may entertain a

270
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Speaker 5: plus one and a half. When you look at the

271
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Speaker 5: weighted runs created situation against lefty righty splits in this game,

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Speaker 5: both of these teams were in the bottom half. Nothing extreme,

273
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Speaker 5: but both of these teams are in the bottom half

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Speaker 5: against what they're going to face as far as the

275
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Speaker 5: lefty and Boyd and Lariety and Bieber, you know, wind

276
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Speaker 5: blowing straight out thirty miles an hour. I think the

277
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Speaker 5: total is spot on. I think there's a little bit

278
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Speaker 5: extra bit of attack on the Indians here because of

279
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Speaker 5: Biaber's name, which I would not play the tire first five.

280
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Speaker 5: I would consider Indians first five, but Tiger's full game

281
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Speaker 5: the Tigers.

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Speaker 3: Whether I got three switch hitters at the top of

283
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Speaker 3: the line Updan Cabrera, Indians have a lot of switch hitters.

284
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Speaker 3: The Indians, by the way, were under kings last year. Well,

285
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Speaker 3: unders were like, I don't know, they were hit like

286
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Speaker 3: seventy eighty percent of their games went under. I think

287
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Speaker 3: this comes down to do you believe and the weather's

288
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Speaker 3: going to be in the thirties, Do you believe in

289
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Speaker 3: Boyd balancing bath this year? If you do, there might

290
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Speaker 3: be some value on the Tigers. I think it's way

291
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Speaker 3: too early to just based on a few spring training

292
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Speaker 3: appearances to be like, oh, he's got his curveball, and

293
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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be a lot better based

294
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Speaker 3: on what we've seen recently. You're you're not like some

295
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Speaker 3: big buyer into Boyd?

296
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Speaker 6: Right?

297
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Speaker 3: No, No, not at all. He's one of the Internet's

298
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Speaker 3: favorite pitchers.

299
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Speaker 4: One of Twitter's favorite pitchers has shown some under the

300
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Speaker 4: radar skills in the past, but I really didn't like

301
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Speaker 4: what I saw last year, and maybe just from trying

302
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Speaker 4: to find value on him earlier in the year, I

303
00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,960
Speaker 4: got scared off. But I need to see some changes

304
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Speaker 4: before I'm milling to back them again. And I have

305
00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,120
Speaker 4: Cleveland as sixty two and a half percent to win

306
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Speaker 4: that game. So it's a very tiny edge if anything

307
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Speaker 4: on Detroit, and probably not one I'm gonna end up playing.

308
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Speaker 5: And I will mention that I do like a couple

309
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Speaker 5: pieces in the Detroit bullpen.

310
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Speaker 2: I do like Gregory Soto. He just throws heat.

311
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,319
Speaker 5: He's been able to locate through the spring. So there

312
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:16,400
Speaker 5: are things that I trust with the Detroit bullpen, Unlike

313
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Speaker 5: some other craptastic teams like you know, the Orioles pin

314
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Speaker 5: some other pins out there, I don't trust Detroit. I'm

315
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Speaker 5: actually giving a little hope into, you know, backing them

316
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 5: in some games this year if they're back end of

317
00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,320
Speaker 5: the of the bullpen can prove it to me.

318
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 3: Speaking of the Orioles, Orioles at Red Sox to ten

319
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 3: Eastern Red Sox about minus one seventy favorites over under

320
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 3: nine totals come down a tiny bit. Lion has come

321
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,280
Speaker 3: down a bit with means at the Ovaldi the Orioles.

322
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Speaker 3: By the way, correct me if I'm wrong. I'm still

323
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Speaker 3: in college basketball mode transitioning. Matt Harvey's their number two?

324
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Speaker 6: Is that?

325
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:52,960
Speaker 2: Is that real? Is that right?

326
00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:54,720
Speaker 3: It's unfortunately real.

327
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Speaker 4: Happy Harvey Day is taking on a whole new meeting

328
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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty one.

329
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Speaker 3: Man.

330
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Speaker 4: I mean, he owns five eight five EARRA over the

331
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Speaker 4: past three seasons for four different teams.

332
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Speaker 3: I can't believe he's still finding big league jobs.

333
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:09,560
Speaker 4: And the fact that he's this high on top of

334
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,280
Speaker 4: a rotation is pretty scary for the prospects of the

335
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Speaker 4: twenty twenty one rowers.

336
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:14,640
Speaker 2: So I know they.

337
00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:16,600
Speaker 4: Traded for Adam Pluco the other day, who I brought

338
00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,480
Speaker 4: up on our slack has a fifty percent fly ball rate,

339
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,520
Speaker 4: which I don't know how that's going to play in

340
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 4: Camden Yards, but I imagine it won't end up well.

341
00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 4: So this this Orioles pitching staff is a disaster. I

342
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:29,960
Speaker 4: remember them playing a lot of high scoring games against

343
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Speaker 4: the Red Sox last year. They're probably gonna have to

344
00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:34,640
Speaker 4: win high scoring games if they are going to be competitive.

345
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,680
Speaker 4: But there's no edge here on this game for me

346
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,520
Speaker 4: on opening Day, even though I kind of like John

347
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,160
Speaker 4: Means a little bit and I think he's one of

348
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:40,960
Speaker 4: their better pieces.

349
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 3: But nothing here for me. All right, Let's run through

350
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 3: the rest of this card quickly. Then we can get

351
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Speaker 3: to some of your questions, some futures and some underrated,

352
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Speaker 3: overrated pitchers that were targeting early in the season.

353
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Speaker 1: Well, here I go, Buck to sing it along, roll out,

354
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:07,120
Speaker 1: will have a barrel, Roll out the barrel. We've got

355
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 1: those blue who was on the road sing zing zing

356
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,640
Speaker 1: boom to roll sing out a song?

357
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:14,920
Speaker 4: Up?

358
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:26,200
Speaker 3: How time to roll barrel? Game? Twins Brewers, some places

359
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,360
Speaker 3: just opened Minnesota minus one fifty. Uh Kenta Mata has

360
00:16:30,400 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 3: been was just tremendous last year. And I mean it

361
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 3: just speaks to the unlimited talent in the Dodgers organization

362
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: as far as starting pitching is concerned. But he was

363
00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: great for the Twins last year. I always looked at

364
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 3: him as like, uh, righties can't touch him, but he's

365
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,760
Speaker 3: vulnerable against lefties. But they kind of tweaked his arsenals

366
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 3: and he didn't matter who he was pitching us. He

367
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,880
Speaker 3: was really good going against Woodroff, who I think is

368
00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 3: also excellent for There was the problem with Woodriff when

369
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 3: whenever I look at the Brewers and I want to

370
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 3: back would your five? A lot of times I like

371
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 3: to back them first five, But then I'm like, well,

372
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 3: the Bruce have such a good back end of the pen,

373
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,439
Speaker 3: but what'd your fit to me? He's like, can go

374
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,200
Speaker 3: like five? Like I wish you could go like six, seven,

375
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:12,880
Speaker 3: Like a lot of times it's a four or five

376
00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,880
Speaker 3: inning guy. But really good pitching matchup here that I'm

377
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,360
Speaker 3: excited to watch anything here as a roll.

378
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, really good pitching matchup, really good defensive matchup on

379
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 4: both sides of the ball. Colton Loong obviously added to

380
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:26,920
Speaker 4: the Brewers. Andrton Simmons added to the Twins. I think

381
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 4: not having Nelson Cruz in the lineup in an NL

382
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 4: park is kind of a big deal. This is one

383
00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,360
Speaker 4: of my favorite unders for opening Day. If you could

384
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:36,360
Speaker 4: bet eight to minus one ten, you can bet seven

385
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 4: and a half at even money or better.

386
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 3: I really like both of those. I like both of

387
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 3: these pitchers a lot. They're my two favorite cy young sleepers.

388
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 4: At twenty five to one, Miyadas started throwing his best pitches,

389
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,440
Speaker 4: slider moroth thin last year, both guys keep the ball

390
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,399
Speaker 4: on the ground close to a fifty percent rate. I

391
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 4: think they're both forty nine percent last year. So there's

392
00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,200
Speaker 4: a lot of things pointing to the under in this game.

393
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:59,000
Speaker 4: Also a climate controlled stadium, So give me the under,

394
00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,000
Speaker 4: and that's probably my favorite total for Thursday.

395
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:06,440
Speaker 3: Rather I am just staring at this Brewers Twins get

396
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 3: I'm with you on this under.

397
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 2: Could we have a we could.

398
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,160
Speaker 3: Have a secret humidor or two. If we don't know right,

399
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 3: it's possible they could be anywhere. We have the new balls.

400
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 3: Q people in on some of the quotes or just

401
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,160
Speaker 3: the general sentiment around the new balls. Didn't they use

402
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 3: the new balls towards the end of spring traders they're

403
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 3: going to use or did they use different balls? Now

404
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:27,720
Speaker 3: they use these balls.

405
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,360
Speaker 4: Pitchers said that the seam height is noticeably higher, run

406
00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 4: scoring is down by about a run per game. Obviously,

407
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,440
Speaker 4: it's tough to compare pass years of spring training because

408
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,800
Speaker 4: we have different groups of teams in Arizona and Florida

409
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 4: are relative to what we've had in the past, but

410
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 4: the balls are noticeably different. Pitchers are saying that they're

411
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,719
Speaker 4: hanging pitches and they're not getting smoked as hard as

412
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,919
Speaker 4: they used to be. But at the same time, hitters

413
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,479
Speaker 4: are eventually going to adjust to that, and you might

414
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:48,399
Speaker 4: see hitters become.

415
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:49,680
Speaker 3: More pole happy later in the year.

416
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 4: Pitchers might get more spin on their pitches if the

417
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 4: seam rates or the seams are higher. So there's a

418
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 4: lot of unintended consequences that might happen as a result

419
00:18:58,240 --> 00:18:59,200
Speaker 4: of them changing the ball.

420
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 3: But for now, I.

421
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,520
Speaker 4: Think you can probably lower your run environment by about

422
00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 4: a tenth of a run per team quarter of a

423
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 4: run per game and move it further from.

424
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 3: There based on how the early playing goes. All right,

425
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:16,920
Speaker 3: Pirates Cubs to twenty Eastern cool at Hendricks Karl Hendricks

426
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 3: minus two point fifteen over under TVD. Because of the weather, obviously,

427
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 3: with Wriglely, I think it's real you could fill us

428
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,880
Speaker 3: in here. There's going to be a lot of wind projected. Hendrix,

429
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 3: I believe has owned the Pirates in the recent past.

430
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think if you're just going to take note

431
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 4: of one park whose totals always open late because of weather,

432
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 4: it's Wriggly. I mean a total could be anywhere between

433
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 4: seven and a half to eleven and a half at

434
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 4: Wrigley Field, depending on the weather, you know, up or

435
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,360
Speaker 4: down two runs from where you would normally have it projected.

436
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 4: So for opening that I have this one closer to

437
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 4: believe to eight point one. I think Colin mentioned that

438
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 4: he has a closer to eight point six. You have

439
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 4: wins blowing in seventeen miles an hour from left field.

440
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 4: I would imagine the total is probably going to open

441
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,320
Speaker 4: in that eight to eight and a half rang, but

442
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 4: we just don't know yet. And as far as the

443
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 4: full game money line or F five, there's really nothing

444
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:05,919
Speaker 4: here for me.

445
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I bet if it.

446
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 3: Opens eight and five, I bet it'll come down, especially

447
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 3: it's like gonna be thirty two degrees in Chicago one. Colin,

448
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 3: what do you got here?

449
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 5: I'll happily taken under eight and a half here because

450
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,959
Speaker 5: you know, another added element besides the wind, besides hindricks

451
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 5: owning the Pirates. The Pirates are the worst team in

452
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 5: twenty twenty against right handed pitching. From the wins weighted

453
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 5: runs created standpoint, So uh, definitely an under and play here.

454
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 5: I'll happily ticket eight and a half, and then I'll

455
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 5: go a little bit lighter on the amount of ticket

456
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 5: if it's an eight su.

457
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 3: Do you have any thoughts on the Cubs are Alex

458
00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 3: Mills didn't make the Cubs rotation. I thought he was

459
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 3: going to. But one of the things that I was

460
00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 3: the Cubs are not going to be great this year.

461
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 3: But I was saying, Okay, you have Hendrix and then

462
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 3: Davies and then Mills, like if all like they're the

463
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,440
Speaker 3: same picture, and like does it kind of take away

464
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 3: their effectiveness when you're just seeing like, oh, these change

465
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 3: of pace change up guys, do you have any insight

466
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 3: into this? Cubs rotation over overrated, underrated.

467
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 4: So they're kind of doing things a little bit differently

468
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 4: than everybody else to be looking at stuff that you know,

469
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 4: Sarrus has written, other people have written about it. It's

470
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 4: called seam shifted wake and it's just a it's a

471
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 4: new development in terms of optimizing pitches and making sure

472
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 4: that pitches compliment one another. Really, the Cubs are acquiring

473
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,320
Speaker 4: these guys who don't have the best stuff, but they

474
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,680
Speaker 4: do things that they think they can manipulate in better

475
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 4: ways to make them more effective than they might look. So, yeah,

476
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 4: they're not the most imposing staff on paper by any

477
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 4: stretch of the imagination, but they at least they have

478
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 4: a plan with what they're doing, and there's a lot

479
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 4: of intentionality with what they're doing, which I certainly respect. Ultimately,

480
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 4: my outlook on the Cubs comes down to how well

481
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 4: they start and then how quickly they look to shop

482
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 4: pending free agents like Baiez and Bryant Wilson Contreras. I

483
00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 4: believe it's still as a year of arbitration left, so

484
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,959
Speaker 4: they're looking to cut costs. They could sell the bottom

485
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 4: out from under this team at any time, But I

486
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 4: have their divisional odds projected close to you about five

487
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 4: twenty five. I think I think there's an eight to

488
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 4: one out there. They're usually five to one in a

489
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 4: lot of places. So listen, if you're high this Cubs team,

490
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 4: if you don't think they'll sell off those pieces, they

491
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 4: could be in contention and open division. But it's not

492
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 4: really a team for me, and it hasn't been for

493
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:07,640
Speaker 4: a few years.

494
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 5: And I think for me it's worth noting people that

495
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,199
Speaker 5: bet on a bet on or against the Cubs that

496
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 5: I don't see a left handed starting pitcher in here

497
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 5: between Hendricks area of Davies, Williams als Ol. Where's the lefties,

498
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,239
Speaker 5: Craig Kimball, right, righty. I mean, so if you have

499
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 5: a team that crushes writings, you may want to go

500
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 5: against the Cubs. Plus, I mean, we're back to a

501
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,479
Speaker 5: full season here, Javier Bayez, Anthony Rizzo. It takes them

502
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 5: two or three months just to wake up. So you know,

503
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 5: this is a Cubs team that has all the kind

504
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 5: of dynamics you want from the sides and the totals

505
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 5: because of the wind and the fact that they don't

506
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 5: have any left handed pitching and they go into streaks

507
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 5: with hitting.

508
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they do have some.

509
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,360
Speaker 3: They do an a bunch of just soft throwing changeup

510
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 3: guys that aren't going to be huge platoon split guys.

511
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's a good point. And then a bullpen.

512
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 3: There's certainly questions there as well. Let's be one to

513
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 3: the NL East Braves Phillies three oh five Eastern. Really

514
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 3: good pitching matchup on paper. Obviously it's opening. You're gonna

515
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: see a lot of those freed at Nola Nola minus

516
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 3: one o five total seven seems low for a game

517
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 3: at Citizens Bank Park, but we're gonna have wind and

518
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 3: not gonna be summer weather. To say the least really

519
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 3: or anything here. Yeah, well, looking at.

520
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 4: The first five over here, anytime I see a first

521
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 4: five over three and a half, even with really good

522
00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 4: starting pitchers, you have to take a look at it,

523
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 4: just because that's.

524
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: A really low implied total.

525
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 4: There should almost always be four or higher if the

526
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 4: game total seven. So lots of wind, as you mentioned,

527
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 4: blowing in from left field at about fifteen miles an hour,

528
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 4: which is why I need to take a closer look

529
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 4: at the number.

530
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,960
Speaker 3: But if I'm playing anything on that game, it's the

531
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:40,880
Speaker 3: first five over.

532
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, the crab Fries.

533
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 5: The wind is blowing in from the crab Fries and

534
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 5: center straight into the visitors dugout, I believe. So, I

535
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 5: think I agree with Currello completely on the first five.

536
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 5: It's a number I projected at four point two. That's

537
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 5: the way to play.

538
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: This, Reds hosting. Are they going to score a run?

539
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: Maybe we just bet the under airs the Reds may

540
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: never score a run. Again, Red's hosting the Cardinals. This line,

541
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 3: I believe at some places opened Jack clarerty minus one

542
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 3: seventy five minus one seventy and now Luis Castillo is

543
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 3: minus one fourteenth So quite a swing. Total seven and

544
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 3: a half. Flowerty obviously it's an He's an interesting guy

545
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 3: that I want to watch. I love his stuff. I

546
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 3: think he's a bona fide ace. And then last year

547
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 3: the Cardinals were just kind of they wouldn't never let

548
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 3: him get into a rhythm and he couldn't in that

549
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 3: shortened season, and he just it just never worked out

550
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 3: for him. I think he was a bit unlucky too

551
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: if he looked at some of his peripherals, but they

552
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,479
Speaker 3: would just wouldn't. They wouldn't let him go deep into games,

553
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 3: they would He just it just was a mess and

554
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 3: lost year for Flowerty. Castillo is obviously excellent with his

555
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 3: change up anything here as well.

556
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Flherty's first two starts last year as he

557
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 4: started on opening to July twenty fourth, and then his

558
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 4: second start was August nineteenth because of all the COVID

559
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 4: pauses that they had and belief he also tested positive.

560
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 4: So I don't see how you can take much stock

561
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,280
Speaker 4: out of that season when he had to up up

562
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 4: during spring, slow back down, you know, taken to lay

563
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 4: and then such a big gap between his first two starts.

564
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,160
Speaker 3: He didn't really get going until September.

565
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 4: So you mentioned that the line opened or it was

566
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 4: an early line at bet MGM opened dramatically in favor

567
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 4: of the Cardinals. They are now around even money, so

568
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 4: it's completely flipped. I think there is some value on

569
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 4: the Cardinals side. I know BJ Cunningham who also does

570
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 4: his own separate projections. He likes the Cardinals a lot.

571
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 4: That was his biggest dgen opening day. I think he

572
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 4: had him closer to fifty five percent. I have them

573
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 4: at fifty two percent, So if I got a probably

574
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 4: a one oh five, I'd consider playing them. But really

575
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the over here. This is one park

576
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 4: that has wind blowing out on opening day, Great American Ballpark.

577
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 3: I believe it's still called that.

578
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 4: We got fourteen miles an hour straight out to right center.

579
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 4: So if anything, I'm probably playing an over in this game.

580
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 4: Despite the Cardinals being a pretty good defensive team, the

581
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 4: Reds are going to be an awful defensive team, probably

582
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 4: the worst one in baseball. So you have a battle

583
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 4: here between the best and worst defensive teams in baseball.

584
00:25:57,960 --> 00:25:59,959
Speaker 4: The Reds are just trying to see how many natural

585
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 4: third basement they can fit into the same lineup and

586
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:03,479
Speaker 4: put on the same field at the same time. So

587
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 4: it's almost like a fantasy baseball team or a like

588
00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 4: a simulations team where you're just like taking the defensive

589
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 4: hit at every position and seeing what happens. But this,

590
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 4: this Reds team could be kind of hilarious just playing

591
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,160
Speaker 4: a whole bunch of third basement together.

592
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 3: Well, then you have the outfield you have to worry about,

593
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 3: like which costianis is just going to be pulled every

594
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: seventh inning? Like it's just yeah, the Reds defensively are

595
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 3: our disaster. Col Let me let you come into here.

596
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 3: Four ten Eastern Rangers at Royals.

597
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kyle, Like I was.

598
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 3: Looking at the I was like, Kyle Gibson is the

599
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,120
Speaker 3: opening day starter for the Rangers? Yes, I mean I'll

600
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: give you innings, but that's about it. Taking on your

601
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: guy Keller Royals depending on where you are minus one

602
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: sixty ish favorite, are we gonna hear about the underrated Royals?

603
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 2: Lineup?

604
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 3: Underrated Keller? And are you back at your Royals here?

605
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Royals are completely underrated. No, I think the

606
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 5: price is correct. I have Keller around minus one fifty one,

607
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 5: so I think there's a little bit heavier of attacks.

608
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 5: I see that it may be dropping it because some

609
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 5: of the minus one fifties all consider Royals bet but

610
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,880
Speaker 5: I think the number is spot on, and especially from

611
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 5: the total. It's going to be a beautiful day three

612
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 5: miles an hour coming in. It's not a home run ballpark.

613
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 5: Texas has no bite in their lineup whatsoever. For me,

614
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 5: this is just going to be a watch to count

615
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 5: how many times out of bertle Montasy gets on base,

616
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 5: which will probably be zero.

617
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 3: It's one of those parks where people don't think of

618
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: it as like, hey, you don't really hit a lot

619
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 3: of homers there, but it's a pure double.

620
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 5: I feel like they built that park and just some Kaufman.

621
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 5: I mean like they built that park to be a

622
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 5: doubles park back in the day, because that's all George

623
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 5: Bright ever did was lead the league in doubles every

624
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 5: single year, and they had the curved outfield wall, so

625
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 5: the ball would just go out there and.

626
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 2: Just run around all over the place on the warning track.

627
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 5: And they've never done anything to benefit home run hitters,

628
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 5: and they're still going out trying to sign Soilaire. So yeah,

629
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 5: definitely park factors. The Royals never rank up I think

630
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 5: in the top fifteen of a home run Park.

631
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 3: Here's an interesting game where and look, I'm not a

632
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 3: huge opening day better. I don't tend to have a

633
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 3: big card on Opening Day as of right now, going

634
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 3: through these games, Brewers twins under is my favor play.

635
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 3: I try to come up an open mind, and I

636
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 3: had some leans, and that's the one where I'm rolling

637
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 3: with there. I do have a slight lean toward Miami here,

638
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay at Miami, Glass now at Alcantara. I'm a

639
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: big Alcatara guy. By the way, I think that there's

640
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 3: I mean this potentially this Marlin's rotation if everything works out,

641
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 3: and Rogers might be the most underrated one in their

642
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 3: rotation given his strikeout rate and ground ball rate combo.

643
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,480
Speaker 3: But you could make a crazy I don't know, you

644
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 3: can make an argument and I wouldn't laugh you out

645
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 3: of the room that the Marlins could win the division,

646
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 3: which I mean, I don't think a lot of people

647
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: think is a realistic option. But Alcatara is excellent. Glass Now.

648
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 3: I just I spent a little bit of time looking

649
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 3: into Glass now, just because I've the last couple of

650
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 3: years and just so many high lever spots. I'm like,

651
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 3: sometimes I bet on him sometimes I've faded them. I'm like,

652
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 3: what is going on with Glass? Though? What do I

653
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: have so many strong opinions on him? Apparently he's coming

654
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 3: up with a hybrid pitch, which he needs.

655
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: He doesn't really have.

656
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: A third pitch, right, He's just as he throws absolute

657
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: gas and then he has an unhittable breaking ball, but

658
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 3: teams are starting to just let me lay off that

659
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 3: and then I'll just sit on his fastball.

660
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: And so I.

661
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 3: Think that that's why if you look at his results,

662
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 3: they're not elite, like you've been thinking Glass now, and

663
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 3: you're like, well, an elite pitcher, But then you look

664
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: at his his ra and some of his other pifles

665
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: and you're like, it's not as good as I thought.

666
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 3: I think that's why if he does develop his third pitch,

667
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 3: look out. But I actually think he might be a

668
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: tad bit overvalued here against just a really scrappy Marlins

669
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 3: team that's gonna just find ways to get on base,

670
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 3: use it some of its speed, and I don't know,

671
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 3: I think the Marlins here an intriguing home dog and

672
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 3: opening dad to it in my crazy thrill. No, you're

673
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: not crazy. I think if anything, that's the side.

674
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 4: I have been projected at forty four percent, so I

675
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 4: need a little bit higher of a money line in

676
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: order to play them, probably closer to like one forty five.

677
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 4: But I don't think you're wrong at all. Glass now

678
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 4: is just such a violatile pitcher. He can get you

679
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 4: two easy strikeouts in an inning and then walk the

680
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: bases loaded in a heartbeat, like that's just how he rolls.

681
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 4: So he is working on that hybrid cutter slider, like

682
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,239
Speaker 4: you said, We'll see how much he actually throws it.

683
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 4: Oftentimes guys work on new pitches in spring training then

684
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 4: never actually bust it out. But if anything here, I'm

685
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 4: actually looking to be under as scary as that sounds,

686
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 4: given his style and how quickly he can implode, but

687
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 4: I think this total should be under seven. It's the

688
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 4: lowest projected total I have for opening day. I have

689
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 4: a closer to six point five. So at seven point

690
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 4: five minus one ten minus one o five, I'm considering

691
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 4: a play. I just need to go back and make

692
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 4: sure that my inputs are all correct, that I didn't

693
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 4: mess something up because it came out so low for me.

694
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 5: I think that this game is properly priced, but it's

695
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 5: the Friday game for the Marlins that I really want

696
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 5: to back them because they have two pitchers that I

697
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 5: have drafted in every fantasy league. I'm in from a

698
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 5: dark horse perspective with alas Here Hernandez and then Friday

699
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 5: starter Pablo Lopez, who's going to go up against Ryan Arborough,

700
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 5: a lefty, and the Marlins hit the lefties way better

701
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 5: than they hit the righties, at least from a twenty

702
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 5: twenty standpoint, So Friday against the Rays is the day

703
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 5: that I'm circling to back Pablo Lopez for the Marlins.

704
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 4: I don't think the market realized or books realized, like

705
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 4: how how much the Marlins team has improved since the

706
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 4: beginning of last year. Obviously, they now have the worst

707
00:31:21,920 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 4: name of all professional stadiums in all sports, so you

708
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 4: could take something away from them there. But yeah, I

709
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 4: think there's definitely some intrigue with this Marlins team. They're

710
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 4: just in the toughest division in baseball, so it's a

711
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: lot to overcome.

712
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely crazy. All right, let's move on to someone

713
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 3: who has been absolutely free money on Opening Day in

714
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 3: the past. That does not mean that it is free

715
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 3: running the future, but Clayton Kershaw, who's been absolutely ridiculous

716
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 3: on opening Day throughout his career, heading two cours Kershaw

717
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,479
Speaker 3: and minus two to five minus two ten favorite over

718
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 3: under eleven. Kirshau has not looked great in spring training.

719
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 3: There was all this talk last year of oh look,

720
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 3: his velocity was way up out of just nowhere, which

721
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 3: you don't really see early early in the season I'm

722
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: referring to for a guy of his age, didn't really

723
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 3: pan out late in the year. They the Dodgers are

724
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: really smart organization. Now, he was not throwing his fastball

725
00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 3: as much. They weren't letting him go deep into games.

726
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 3: He would rarely, you know, face the lineup for the

727
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: third time through. So like elite, Kershall is like at

728
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 3: the very very end of the rope. Like it's he's

729
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: still can pitch, and he knows how to pitch and

730
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 3: he has savvy. But I have some concerns about Kershall,

731
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: and it's one guy that I'm potentially looking to fade

732
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 3: in first five because the Dodger is just going to

733
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 3: be so overvalued this year. So Marquez obviously it's just

734
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 3: I get him out of chorus.

735
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: Man.

736
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: Let me just look at his roads once he's a

737
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 3: dominant pitcher. I believe his curve and Bieber's curve last

738
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 3: year it was the two most valuable pitchers pitches in baseball.

739
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 3: Any chance, I don't think none of us like this

740
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 3: Rockies team, but they do at least have Marquez on

741
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 3: the mound. Any chance you go against the Dodgers in

742
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 3: Kershaw on opening Day? Here as a will.

743
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 4: When this early line came out, it was sitting around

744
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,239
Speaker 4: plus two twenty, and I was sitting here thinking, damn it,

745
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 4: am I really going to have to give out the

746
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 4: Rockies on opening Day to people and immediately taken out. Thankfully,

747
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 4: it's come down a little bit to one to nineties,

748
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 4: so I could back off of that play that that.

749
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 3: Line looks right to me, that total looks right to me.

750
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 4: So thankfully we do not have to bet the Rockies

751
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 4: on opening Day against the Dodgers, but I would imagine

752
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 4: at some point we certainly will be.

753
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 3: Last time we saw Kershaw, eighty eight pitches and three

754
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 3: point one innings came out with the bases loaded. So

755
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 3: he uh, I think at a ten point two to two.

756
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 3: We are in spring training now again. So let me

757
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: pose this question, Gee, do you have any hypothesis on

758
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 3: spring training results for pitchers. So I think that I

759
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 3: like to look at it is obviously velocity. You know,

760
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 3: you can see a right last year, the last fuit

761
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 3: saved up a little bit in spring training. But you

762
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 3: said you mentioned this before. Hey, they're working on this pit,

763
00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 3: and I say to myself, oh, well, if they have

764
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 3: this pitch and it looks great, that's going to do

765
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 3: a lot for their arsenal. But then you don't see it.

766
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 3: It's still spring training. You see guys with great spring

767
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: trainings that just hey, then all of a sudden they're

768
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 3: themselves in the regular season, or guys are just getting

769
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 3: lit up in an opening day. They're sharp as hell,

770
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 3: they're working on some stuff. They're not worried about results

771
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 3: as much. So how much stock do you put into

772
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 3: picture results in spring training. I don't think you can

773
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 3: put a ton into it.

774
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 4: I mean, if we remember last year, Robbie Ray was

775
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 4: like the absolute coronation of Robbi Ray during spring training,

776
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:33,839
Speaker 4: and we all saw how that worked out. Changes our

777
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 4: angle was absolutely dominant. But the one thing I would

778
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:38,839
Speaker 4: look at, the one thing I do put a little

779
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:42,280
Speaker 4: stock into is guys who have shown absolutely no command

780
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 4: in the past, potentially finding it. If you get like

781
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 4: a three to one strike out the walker ratio four

782
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 4: to one even over twenty innings, that's some indication that

783
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 4: they may be finding something. I know you consider Dylan

784
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 4: ces to be an absolute gas can and one of

785
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 4: the most fatable pitchers in baseball.

786
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 3: Well, he's shown improved command this spring, so I.

787
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: Would be a little bit careful about going all in

788
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 4: against cease early because he might be a different picture.

789
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 3: What's that smell? It's Diggs.

790
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: I mean this trash, the sweet, sweet trash.

791
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 3: The trash is a gold mine, old mind.

792
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 4: That's kind of the thing I look for is guys

793
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 4: who are one skill away, whether it's a power hitter

794
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 4: who hasn't made contact in the past or a power

795
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 4: arm with good stuff who hasn't been able to command

796
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 4: the ball in the past. If they're showing signs that

797
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 4: they might be unlocking that final skill, I would just

798
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 4: be a little bit more hesitant than you know, your

799
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 4: initial assumption in either fading them or targeting them.

800
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: So you're saying no results matter unless it's still in season.

801
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 3: Is actually the only incorrect answer, Colin.

802
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 2: What do you have?

803
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 5: Well, I mean if there's a picture that fits that

804
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 5: profile where I was had them heavily under the microscope

805
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,479
Speaker 5: because I'm going to bet them like throughout the first month.

806
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 5: Because they've increased their velocity, they've helped their pitch location.

807
00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 5: They're just a completely different picture than they were two

808
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 5: years ago. It's you see, Kokichi Koukichi has been fantastic

809
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 5: for the Mariners in camp. There is nothing that's going

810
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 5: to stop me from betting him the first few outings.

811
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 5: He is a completely different pitcher. I know, we've seen

812
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 5: it with Robbie Ray and he falls off. He can't

813
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 5: you know, he can't hit the broad side of a barn.

814
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 5: But Kokichi has increased his velocity, he's increased the number

815
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 5: of pitches that he has, he's locating. That is somebody

816
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 5: for the Mariners. I'm going to back the first three

817
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 5: or four starts until he stops making me money.

818
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 4: His velocity was kind of up and down and all

819
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 4: over the place when he first came over from Japan.

820
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 4: His velocity he dropped, and then last year it got

821
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 4: back up to ninety eight miles an hour in some games.

822
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 4: So absolutely, I think you're you're on the nose there

823
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 4: with Kakuchi.

824
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, he just needs know you're I mean, you are

825
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 3: right about seas. I mean one of the reasons I

826
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 3: hate him is because he has no command. So then

827
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 3: he gets into hitters counts and he's either walking somebody

828
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:46,839
Speaker 3: or gets into it. He gets into a hitter's count,

829
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 3: he has to throw his fastball and they're just sitting

830
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 3: on it. If he doesn't prove his command, he certainly

831
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 3: has good stuff. He'll be a much improved pitcher. The

832
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 3: same thing as with Kakuchi. I have him here listed

833
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: on when we get to undervalued pitches. I have him

834
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: here a number one. I mean that year he had

835
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 3: what a five point seventy r completely misleading was fifty

836
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 3: nine point nine percent left on base radio three point

837
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,239
Speaker 3: three FIP three point seven eight x FIP four point

838
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 3: three four. Sierra added a cutter velocity up a significant amount,

839
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 3: and then he as long as he just improves his command,

840
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 3: which you would think after like a year of adding

841
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 3: a cutter and in it during a pandemic interrupted year,

842
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 3: hey is you can anticipate that maybe his command was

843
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 3: probably gonna be a little off of If he improves

844
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:33,399
Speaker 3: his command, he's gonna be a pitcher that I agree

845
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 3: will be on a lot.

846
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 5: And let's also remember that he pitches his home games

847
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 5: in Seattle and he gets to play road games in

848
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,799
Speaker 5: Oakland and in Texas the New Globe life, which is like,

849
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 5: you know, eating hitters alive.

850
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 2: So I mean, it's a really good setup for every year.

851
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 3: Talking about velocity that's potentially not going up Madison Bumgarner.

852
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: You'll talk about this arizonas he doesn't seem to sign anyone,

853
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: and then they give that that contract to Bumgarner. Bumgunner

854
00:37:56,200 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: had an atrocious year last year. He opens up on

855
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 3: the road against the Padres, who just have I don't know,

856
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 3: like five or six potential cy young starters on their team,

857
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 3: like Clevenger's not even playing formission doesn't really matter for

858
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: their rotation. Padres minus two fifteen minus two twenty shover

859
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 3: under eight and a half pump. Gonner twenty nineteen average

860
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 3: velocity was like a fastball around ninety one and a

861
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 3: half ninety two down to eighty eight last year. So

862
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,320
Speaker 3: if he can get up to ninety one ninety two again, okay,

863
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 3: maybe he's edible again. I don't stin't know if he

864
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 3: can get back to that level anything here's a row.

865
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: Even at that ninety one mile an hour range, he

866
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 4: was still struck out two hundred hitters of the course

867
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 4: of a year, so it shows you how substantial those

868
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 4: those last couple miles an hour really are. I'm absolutely

869
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 4: going to be targeting either first five money line or

870
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 4: first five spread on the padres here. I have them

871
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 4: at seventy three point six percent for the first five innings.

872
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 4: It drops the sixty nine percent for the full game,

873
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 4: So definitely an F five for those of you out there.

874
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 4: It's just a matter of how you want to play it.

875
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 4: I think the spread is minus one thirty five money

876
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 4: lines about minus two fifteen, so I'm also showing value

877
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 4: on the under, but very slightly definitely not anything I'm

878
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 4: going to play because Bumgardner has blow up potential. Apparently

879
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 4: he's gotten up to ninety one miles an hour in

880
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,399
Speaker 4: spring training, but listen, based on what I saw last year,

881
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 4: that's that's a long hill to climb back up, and

882
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 4: usually pitchers don't just suddenly rediscover that philosophy after losing

883
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 4: it like that.

884
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 2: Completely agree with Zerillo here.

885
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 5: I think the line right now is we're recording this

886
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 5: podcast at minus two twenty. I think it's twenty five

887
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 5: cents short. I wouldn't be surprising the potters keep going

888
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 5: up on the full game number. At the same time,

889
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 5: I'm right with Zarrillo. Seven point eight is my projection

890
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 5: on the total. You know, I think the game is

891
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 5: going to be eight zero padres if he had to

892
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 5: ask me on the outcome, so which is very possible.

893
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 3: Moving on to the nights, we have four games to

894
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: de Gram at Shares are great pitching matchup on paper.

895
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 3: De Gram has taken a little bit of money since

896
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:02,479
Speaker 3: the open minus one four five ish now over under

897
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: has come down off that key seven, say six and

898
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 3: a half now heavily juiced to the over. The thing

899
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 3: with the I have a lot of questions about the nets.

900
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,720
Speaker 3: The more I look into them, the more I've questions.

901
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 3: It's one of my most overvalued pitchers. I think this

902
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 3: is probably a consensus with a lot of people. Is Corbin.

903
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 3: I mean, just with his velocity going down as a

904
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 3: two pitch pitcher, that's scary. It Shares are He's not

905
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: going to be elite forever right and he's getting up

906
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 3: there at age thirty seven. So I do have some

907
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 3: and Strasbourg is not right, not completely healthy right now.

908
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 3: So I have a major questions about the Nationals basically

909
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 3: with everything except for one so noo anything here. So yeah,

910
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 3: but you're talking about free money on opening Day. I

911
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 3: thought you were about to break up my Mets.

912
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 4: Listen, they lost their first eight gay games in franchise history.

913
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 4: Since then, they're thirty nine and twelve on opening Day, Stuckey,

914
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 4: thirty nine and twelve. There's no wonder like as a

915
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 4: Mets fan, I get gas giddy about Opening Day. I

916
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 4: don't think I've seen them lose many opening day games

917
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 4: in my lifetime.

918
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 3: So listen, these two pitchers.

919
00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 4: Obviously, on paper, as good as it gets, you're always

920
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 4: going to see a first five total of three and

921
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,240
Speaker 4: a half in ad ground versus Surezer game. I believe

922
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 4: it's gone over three out of four times in Nationals Park.

923
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 4: We do have wind blowing in in this game as well,

924
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 4: So I show slight value on the over, I might

925
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 4: not play it. I got to look at that win

926
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 4: situation more. I got to dig into the numbers of

927
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 4: these these The grom first five over three and a half,

928
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,439
Speaker 4: so I know he went on a huge run where

929
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,640
Speaker 4: he'd hit like twelve or fifteen in a row and

930
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 4: gone under. Maybe you take a Mets team total over.

931
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 4: Once a pitcher has an armor shoulder injury, they're almost

932
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 4: a fifty to fifty bet to have another armor shoulder

933
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 4: injury in the following year. So it's going to be

934
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 4: tough for the Nationals to keep Strasburg and sures Are together,

935
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 4: even though I mean, they benefited last year from having

936
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 4: extra time off to heal, but they're still paying that

937
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 4: tax from that World Series run that they won on

938
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 4: when they were trotting Strasbourg out every two days so

939
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 4: and Surezer was dealing with injuries even during that time,

940
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 4: and then last year it eventually caught off to him.

941
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, maybe a Mets team total over, maybe a

942
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 4: Mets first five over. But in terms of the game moneyline,

943
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 4: I think it's spot on. You just you don't really

944
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 4: know what to get out of Sureser.

945
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I completely agree here. I think the number is correct.

946
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 5: I think it's priced in the market correctly. But I

947
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 5: agree with the Mets winning the game here and getting

948
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 5: to Shurser because you know, the Mets crushed right handed

949
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,840
Speaker 5: pitching and last year specifically, thirteen innings pitched against the Mets.

950
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 5: For sures are at five earned runs with a with

951
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 5: a whip around one three five, So they can get

952
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 5: to Shurser here.

953
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:38,839
Speaker 2: It just depends on what inning they get to them. Yeah.

954
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 3: I mean there's part of me that just says, like,

955
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 3: let me throw out the Nets pitchers, their top three starters.

956
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 3: This is a huge drop off, and you know, like

957
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 3: John Lester, but let me throw out some of their

958
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,719
Speaker 3: their numbers from last year's was a shortened COVID season

959
00:42:50,760 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: and it was after they went on that huge run

960
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,880
Speaker 3: and they just extended their arms when they won the

961
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 3: World Series. But then again, I look at them like

962
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:02,840
Speaker 3: Corbyn's velocity going down. Strasbourg has some health concerns, Suss

963
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 3: not getting any younger. But you're right, the Mets are great.

964
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,800
Speaker 3: They just free money on Opening Day and then that's that.

965
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,960
Speaker 3: Then we start the Mets World Series hype after day one.

966
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,759
Speaker 3: It's just just it's a cycle that it actually excites me.

967
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: But this year I'm in on the Mets.

968
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 2: Question.

969
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 3: One of the questions we got drill and we touched

970
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:22,880
Speaker 3: on this a little bit on our first Baseball podcast

971
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 3: was from our colleague Daniel Scotti at Scottie Pippin. He asked,

972
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 3: would you rather bet the Mets? Would you feel more

973
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: a couple of bet in the Mets to win the

974
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: division or the World Series? He says world series because obviously,

975
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 3: if you get Cinderguard back and Strowman who's apparently working

976
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: on another pitch, and then you know you have de

977
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 3: Gram really tough team to beat in a five or

978
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 3: seven game series. But if they don't win the division.

979
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: We talked about this before, then it's like, all right,

980
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: do you gonna Gainstu Darbish and the Padres in a

981
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 3: one game wildcard? That's not ideal either. So I think

982
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 3: my answer to them would be a little bit of both,

983
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 3: and any thoughts.

984
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 4: There, yeah, I mean, okay, so if you're confident that

985
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 4: they're winning the division, but you don't want to get like,

986
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 4: you don't want plus.

987
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:17,959
Speaker 3: One thirty back in your money.

988
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 4: Right there's an eighteen to one out there on the

989
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 4: Mets right now, there's a twelve to one.

990
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 3: Most of the market's a ten to one.

991
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 4: Something we've discussed but not really emphasized is the fact

992
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 4: that the Analyst and NL Central champions have a path

993
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 4: to the World Series where they never face the Dodgers.

994
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,320
Speaker 4: If the Dodgers win the NL West, they're really good,

995
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 4: Padres finish in a wildcard spot, Mets or Braves win

996
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 4: the n least other team finishes in a wildcard spot.

997
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 4: That wildcard team presumably is going to play the Dodgers

998
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 4: in the first round and have a good chance of

999
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 4: beating them in a five game series, obviously better than

1000
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 4: they would in a seven game series. And then the

1001
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 4: Nlest and Central champions are going to play, and one

1002
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 4: of them will have home field advantage against the wildcard

1003
00:44:56,160 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 4: team that eliminates the Dodgers. So there's a really interesting

1004
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 4: path for those two divisions to make a run at

1005
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 4: the Annal Pennant, make a run at the World Series.

1006
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,400
Speaker 4: It's not for everybody to bet a team at plus

1007
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 4: one thirty plus one fifty to win a division. That's

1008
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 4: it's not a huge return on your money that you're

1009
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 4: sitting on for six months. Obviously, plus twelve hundred plus

1010
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 4: eighteen hundred is a lot more enticing. So yeah, like,

1011
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 4: if you're confident that the Mets are going to win

1012
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 4: their division, take a little bit of their division money,

1013
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 4: but definitely add some World Series bets too, because I

1014
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 4: just think the path come playoff time for the East

1015
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 4: and Central Divisions is potentially lighter than it looks like.

1016
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, the only.

1017
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 3: Fear is though if you don't because there's a lot

1018
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 3: of volt of all the NLA's teams, right, Like we

1019
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 3: talked about the Nets pitching, the Phillies pitching and their bullpen,

1020
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 3: lots of questions the Marlin zero wild card. But the

1021
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 3: Braves like they're starters, they have some questions there. What

1022
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 3: are you going to get from Charlie Morton for example,

1023
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 3: their ace from two years ago is coming off surgery.

1024
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,879
Speaker 3: And then the Mets, it's like Cinderguard's not hurt, which

1025
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 3: Struman didn't pitch last year. So, like you, you could

1026
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 3: see a lot of variants within the regular seasons. So

1027
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 3: the fear is with like the Braves or the Mets,

1028
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 3: is that what I mentioned before is you don't win

1029
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 3: the division, you come up just short, and then you

1030
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 3: go into a one game wild guard against the Padres

1031
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 3: and like you Darvish, like that's not ideal, but you're right.

1032
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 3: Other than that, it's a it's a good if you

1033
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,360
Speaker 3: win the analyse, it's probably gonna be a good path.

1034
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:24,800
Speaker 3: All right, let's finish off the night's slate, real quick.

1035
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: Giolito at Bundy the White Sox minus one eleven, minus

1036
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,320
Speaker 3: one thirteen depending when you look over under eight and

1037
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 3: a half is the big news with the White Sox

1038
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,400
Speaker 3: was Lloy Hemenez is going to be out for a while.

1039
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 3: Can Collins and Vaughan kind of make up for his

1040
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 3: loss and still is a very potent lineup. Bondy was

1041
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:46,880
Speaker 3: great last year, and he was a big He was

1042
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 3: a huge prospect at one point, and he changed his arsenal.

1043
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 3: He just you know, start stopped using his fastball as

1044
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 3: much and used his curve and change up more. I

1045
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 3: think it made some really positive changes to his arsenal

1046
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 3: last year. Then the numbers were excellent under three fip

1047
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 3: in over sixty five innings last year, so I think

1048
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: that that's real the numbers that we saw from Bundy

1049
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 3: last year. Giolito obviously has excellent stuff, especially if you

1050
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 3: could just limit some of his walks a bit. But

1051
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 3: I think he's still some of that, some of his

1052
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:18,400
Speaker 3: wildness makes some effective any value here in the Halo's

1053
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 3: at home as a slight dog real No. I think

1054
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 3: this one's lined right, Keep it simple.

1055
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 4: I mean, every market on this game looks right to me,

1056
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 4: even though I thought Gilito is pretty high in my rankings.

1057
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 4: Expected to find somebody in the White Sox, but I

1058
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 4: got to have them. Granky at Bassett I did have here.

1059
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 4: Maybe you can convinced me on this one, Astros at A's.

1060
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 3: This is kind of a revenge season over, if you will,

1061
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 3: from the playoffs last year. This game's basically a coin

1062
00:47:46,280 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 3: flip over under eight and a half. Look, if you

1063
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:51,920
Speaker 3: look at the A's lineup, it's still they're going to

1064
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 3: absolutely crush Lefty's still very right handed heavy lineup, which

1065
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 3: actually sort of plays against Granky. Granky is a righty,

1066
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 3: but he's a splits righty used to not be. But

1067
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 3: the way that he has changed his pitch mix over

1068
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 3: the last decade or so, you could project him as

1069
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 3: one of the rare reverse splitz pitchers. So can the

1070
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:12,719
Speaker 3: A's hit him?

1071
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: Sure?

1072
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 3: And then on the other side you have Bassett, who

1073
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 3: has been great the past couple of years, but I

1074
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 3: mean had two point twenty nine ERA last year, but

1075
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 3: his Sierra is the last three seasons four four five, four,

1076
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 3: four seven, four four six. Think his I think a

1077
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 3: little bit of uh, a little bit of luck last year.

1078
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 3: Dis Astros team I think does project better against lefty.

1079
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:39,920
Speaker 3: So you do have a righty going for the A's.

1080
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,160
Speaker 3: I think thrill you like the ace here right you're

1081
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: gonna and I think I can get behind that. Yeah,

1082
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 3: I was surprised to see that.

1083
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 4: You know, obviously have a lot of futures money invested

1084
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 4: in the Astros.

1085
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 3: But bass it But if you go by.

1086
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 4: XO, he was better than Granky last year he took

1087
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 4: a step forward, Grank he took a step back. A

1088
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,320
Speaker 4: lot of weak contact from Bassett, keeps the ball on

1089
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 4: the ground, heavy cutter guy. I'm increase his cutter usage

1090
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 4: last year. I also have a four year old basset

1091
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,440
Speaker 4: own and this is her favorite pitchers, so I have

1092
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 4: to back Basset whenever he shows value. It's just a

1093
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 4: rule in my household. So give me the A's on

1094
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 4: opening day. I also show slight value on the under.

1095
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,320
Speaker 4: I might end up playing that too. Two healthy bullpens,

1096
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 4: really good defensive team in the A's, so I'm thinking

1097
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 4: about adding an under as well.

1098
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 3: But definitely the a is up to about minus one ten.

1099
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 3: Any worry with the Astros because I'm with you on

1100
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:30,280
Speaker 3: their futures, especially to win this division. There's no lefty

1101
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 3: in the rotation. Greky is kind of like a quasi lefty.

1102
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 3: And then you have that injury, potentially season ending injury

1103
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 3: to Valdez, which is when the news first came out.

1104
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 3: But it looks like it's not going to be that serious.

1105
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 3: So are we still fairly confident in the price that

1106
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:46,320
Speaker 3: we got on the Astros.

1107
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean they made it all the way to

1108
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 4: Game seven of the World Series, or a couple of

1109
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 4: years ago, they they didn't have a single lefty reliever

1110
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 4: in their bullpen, So I haven't looked at the exact

1111
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:56,759
Speaker 4: splits that they have on these guys, but I'm sure

1112
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 4: they have a couple of reverse splits lefties they used

1113
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 4: to use Will Harrison role the as sure as they

1114
00:50:01,520 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 4: have one of the best pitching coaches in the game,

1115
00:50:03,400 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 4: oldest the oldest I believe coach in the game at

1116
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 4: this point. So they're just really calculated in their approach.

1117
00:50:09,200 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 4: They don't really care about handedness. They just care about

1118
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 4: the skills that guys have and how they can optimize them.

1119
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 3: Then the final game of the night ten ten Eastern

1120
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:22,000
Speaker 3: Galsman at Gonzales, Giants at Mariners it's gals was like

1121
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 3: miss one O five minus one of six over under

1122
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 3: eight and a half. I'm a fan of Galsman. I'm

1123
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 3: a Galsman truther, but I also really like Gonzaleze. He's

1124
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 3: just a command king. I know that he's he's not

1125
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 3: going to wow you with any stuff, but he's going

1126
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:36,240
Speaker 3: to locate as well as any pitcher in the bigs.

1127
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 3: Anything here.

1128
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 4: I hope Marco Gonzalez Shades is an permanent nickname on

1129
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 4: player's weekend of boring. Just to throw some shade back

1130
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,920
Speaker 4: at the recently fired Mariners president, Listen, I think we're

1131
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 4: going to be betting a lot on the Giants this year,

1132
00:50:49,080 --> 00:50:51,919
Speaker 4: particularly against the Padres and the Doggers. I think they're

1133
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:55,840
Speaker 4: a competitive team. They make really smart moves. Galsman, it

1134
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 4: was smart.

1135
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: To walk him up.

1136
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 4: They might have given him a qualifying offer one of

1137
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 4: your fifteen million. Mine one hundred percent sure on that.

1138
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 4: But I show some first five any value on them.

1139
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 4: I have them at fifty five point seventy five percent,

1140
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:08,160
Speaker 4: so I think at minus one ten or better, that's

1141
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 4: that's a solid little play. Also looking at the full

1142
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:16,479
Speaker 4: game under here, Seattle traditionally plays to the under lower

1143
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 4: scoring games, but their bullpen is my personal kryptonite. I

1144
00:51:20,200 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 4: can't even begin to tell you how many bets I

1145
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 4: have lost as a result of the Mariner's bullpen in

1146
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 4: the past few years. I was on that first game

1147
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 4: of the doubleheader last year that they had with the

1148
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,920
Speaker 4: Potters where their bullpen allowed seven runs at the bottom

1149
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 4: of the seventh, including a walk off grand Slam.

1150
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:37,399
Speaker 3: I will never forget that for as long as I live.

1151
00:51:37,560 --> 00:51:40,719
Speaker 4: So the Mariner's tough for me to get behind an

1152
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 4: under with that bullpen, but I am showing value on

1153
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:44,320
Speaker 4: that front.

1154
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 3: I was on the first game of that doubleheader, which

1155
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,680
Speaker 3: I think was I was on the under or the manners,

1156
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:50,959
Speaker 3: and it also blew up in like the sixth inning

1157
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,080
Speaker 3: the Torture Chamber.

1158
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,400
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1159
00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:59,799
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1178
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1179
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1180
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,040
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1181
00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,279
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1182
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1183
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1184
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1185
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1186
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1187
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1189
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 7: Thanks for listening.

1190
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:22,279
Speaker 3: Now back to the show, all right, so that'll do

1191
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,960
Speaker 3: it going through every game on opening day. Let me

1192
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 3: before we get to let me just get to my

1193
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 3: undervalued overvalued list. You let me know if you agree

1194
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:33,320
Speaker 3: or disagree zero and you you're thrown in there. And

1195
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 3: then conall, let you throw any pitchers that you have

1196
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 3: from an undervalue overde perspective. Undervalued already we already talked

1197
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 3: about Kakuchi. I have two Giants pitchers also, Logan Web.

1198
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 3: I mean there's rave reviews about his change up. How

1199
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,160
Speaker 3: much do we do we trust the spring training reports,

1200
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 3: but he's been great in spring in that pitch apparently

1201
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 3: is looked up. Scene Discofani I'm a big fan of,

1202
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 3: and I think the whole benefit for moving from Sinci

1203
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:00,480
Speaker 3: in that bandbox to San Fran got to throw an

1204
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 3: Indians pitcher in here in Savali. I mean, his revamped delivery,

1205
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 3: changed his arm, angle his arsenal. He's got a third

1206
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 3: pitch now and it's just the Indians bump. Whatever you

1207
00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 3: project for an Indians pitcher, you know that you're just

1208
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:14,720
Speaker 3: going to get better because of how they develop pitchers.

1209
00:54:15,360 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 3: I'd put Junis in here because of his third pitch.

1210
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:21,320
Speaker 3: And I just Trevor Roders just doesn't get enough credit

1211
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 3: on the Marlin's rotation because of these other names that

1212
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 3: throw harder. But his strikeout rate, his groundball combo is excellent.

1213
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 3: Those are my undervalued. My overvalued was Glass now Ian

1214
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 3: Anderson probably going to be overvalued earlier in the year,

1215
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 3: worried about his walks too a bit, and then corbyin.

1216
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 3: I mean, look he lost two miles per hour off

1217
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 3: his velocity last year. His swinging strike rate is just plummeting.

1218
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 3: This is a two pitch pitcher. I mean, if he

1219
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 3: doesn't have his fastball anymore.

1220
00:54:48,520 --> 00:54:48,840
Speaker 2: See you.

1221
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 3: So those are the three I had his overvalued. I'll

1222
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:53,480
Speaker 3: start with you to agree disagree with any of them,

1223
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 3: and then anyone else you want to throw out.

1224
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually kind of pretty high Anderson. Actually, I

1225
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 4: just really like his stuff. I like his and he's

1226
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:02,359
Speaker 4: so polished for a kid his age. He's shown great

1227
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 4: numbers through the minor league. So I'd Degue a little

1228
00:55:04,800 --> 00:55:06,800
Speaker 4: bit on that one, but generally, I think the guys

1229
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 4: that I think are undervalued are on a lot of

1230
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 4: the teams that I bet to win the divisions you mentioned.

1231
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 4: Savally for Cleveland, I'm a big fan of POLEA Sack.

1232
00:55:14,239 --> 00:55:16,799
Speaker 4: I think he's great. I think Tristan McKenzie's great. His

1233
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:20,720
Speaker 4: strikeout rate was I believe, the only one to eclipse

1234
00:55:20,719 --> 00:55:23,160
Speaker 4: a certain benchmark that has only been met by Kerry

1235
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:26,359
Speaker 4: Wood and Stephen Shrasburg in their rookie season, So that's

1236
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 4: definitely something to keep an eye on. Hoosier Quidy for

1237
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 4: the Astros. That guy's four above average pitches. I dealt

1238
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 4: with code last year, which kind of hicc up the

1239
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,919
Speaker 4: start of his season, but he's extremely effective. And then

1240
00:55:39,000 --> 00:55:40,760
Speaker 4: you know, if you want to go through the Brewers

1241
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 4: trio of Corbyn Burns, Brandon Woodruff, and Adrian Houser, I

1242
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 4: think all those guys are highly effective pitchers and a

1243
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 4: big reason why I think they're going to be successful

1244
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 4: this season. So I guess one other guy I'd mentioned

1245
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 4: he's a piece of shit because he had domestic violence

1246
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 4: incident last year. But Dimigo Harman for the Yankees don't

1247
00:55:57,040 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 4: forget how good he was two years ago. I mean

1248
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 4: he was maybe they're the best picture on their roster

1249
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 4: before they got Garrett Cole. So definitely don't forget about Herman.

1250
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 4: Just a matter of whether he has his command coming

1251
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 4: back from that suspension. As for guys, I want to

1252
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 4: neg a little bit. There's really you just got to

1253
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 4: kind of take it as the season goes. But Corey

1254
00:56:15,840 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 4: Klueber hasn't looked great this spring, velocities down a little bit,

1255
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:21,319
Speaker 4: having trouble commanding his curve ball. Command is the last

1256
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 4: thing that typically comes back after surgery. Anytime you say

1257
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 4: anything negative about a Yankees pitcher or any Yankees player,

1258
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 4: you get absolutely destroyed on the media space.

1259
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 3: But it is what it is.

1260
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 2: Guys.

1261
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 4: I respect the fact that you defend your players with

1262
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 4: good word like being able to take some criticism.

1263
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:38,360
Speaker 3: As far as actually.

1264
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 4: I'm gonna mention one of the guy who I think

1265
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 4: is underrated again with the astro as Lance mccolers Junior.

1266
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 4: When a team extends a player in spring and shows

1267
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 4: that confidence in them, I think you have to take notice.

1268
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:51,120
Speaker 4: And he was awesome over his last eight starts last year.

1269
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 4: Career home run late rate below one really high ground

1270
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 4: ball rates, so that keeps his his profile, you know,

1271
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 4: pretty well tuned to have not too much volatility. Mcculler's

1272
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 4: is one of my favorite, like super long shots for

1273
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 4: the Cy Young Award over thirty starts. He can get

1274
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 4: his way into the conversation. It's just a matter of

1275
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 4: him staying healthy for the first time.

1276
00:57:10,960 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 3: I wonder if you're going to will you get criticized

1277
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 3: for criticizing how the Yankees fans take criticism.

1278
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 2: And I'm sure I will great list.

1279
00:57:22,560 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 3: The one thing I worry about with McKenzie's the stamina

1280
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 3: in a full season, which is something to note. But

1281
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 3: anytime you want to throw an Indians picture is undervalued,

1282
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:34,040
Speaker 3: I can't really disagree. And his stuff is electric coon

1283
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:34,960
Speaker 3: anything you want to add.

1284
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 5: Here, Yeah, I mean we've mentioned a lot of them

1285
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 5: that I like. Youpucci's somebody I'm going to bet on

1286
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 5: every day, uh you know.

1287
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 3: Every day every day he's in there, he's you got

1288
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 3: to bet on the matter.

1289
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,640
Speaker 5: Every day DFS lineups, even if he's not playing, so

1290
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 5: uh you know, I mean, just you know other pictures

1291
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 5: that we've mentioned that I love that I'm going to

1292
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 5: be betting on probably blindly is Zach Levezach, you know

1293
00:57:57,720 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 5: some other ones in there. I think people should take

1294
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,919
Speaker 5: note that Mike Minor for the Royals. It's a really

1295
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 5: good ballpark fit for him, and he has some really

1296
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 5: strong first half second half splits like he falls off

1297
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 5: the map after the All Star break.

1298
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 2: He's actually pretty good the last few years through the

1299
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 2: first half.

1300
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 5: So Mike Miner is somebody I'm going to look to

1301
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 5: play in spots for the Royals as far as a

1302
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 5: fade that turns into a play. I went down to

1303
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:22,040
Speaker 5: the Cactus League and didn't like anything I saw in

1304
00:58:22,080 --> 00:58:26,280
Speaker 5: two outings from Julioy Riots. He absolutely got bombed by

1305
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 5: the Royals. He got tore up in another outing. I

1306
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 5: don't know if he can't get location. I don't know

1307
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:32,560
Speaker 5: the speed because they weren't posting the you know, his

1308
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 5: velocity up on the scoreboard. But I didn't see anything

1309
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 5: good out of Hului Rias. But that gives me hope

1310
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 5: that Dustin may will get some starts here, which I

1311
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 5: think the Dodgers are going to do anyway. So the

1312
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 5: Dodgers don't want to tax any of their starters. So

1313
00:58:45,000 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 5: you know, now with Stripling moving on, to Toronto. Dustin

1314
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:49,960
Speaker 5: May fills that role of hey, you're gonna be our

1315
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 5: six guy in the rotation, but you're really going to

1316
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 5: pitch every five days. So anytime Dustin May is on

1317
00:58:54,520 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 5: the hill, that is that is worth some coin to

1318
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 5: put down.

1319
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 3: I'm fully convinced that that May. Part of his effectiveness

1320
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:05,640
Speaker 3: is his hair and how that distracts hitters. But so

1321
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 3: he if he cuts the shade his head, I think

1322
00:59:08,760 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 3: that you have to start the dock him. Partly kidding,

1323
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,320
Speaker 3: but by the way, how confident are you in the

1324
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 3: Royals bullpen this year? Like Stalmand is one of my

1325
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 3: favorite bullpen pitchers that doesn't get enough love. But like,

1326
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 3: when you're betting on the Royals this year, are you like,

1327
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 3: are you going to be looking for first five more

1328
00:59:25,040 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 3: than full game? Are you more confident or less confident

1329
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 3: that you think the market is on this Royals bullpen

1330
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 3: in total?

1331
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 5: Well, I mean so far, Greg Holland has been good

1332
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 5: through spring training. We'll see if that translates into Indo.

1333
00:59:36,520 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 3: He was good last year, which I don't understand, but yeah, yeah,

1334
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 3: I don't understand it either.

1335
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 5: And Stallmond, I mean, listen, he's been in Omaha forever

1336
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:44,640
Speaker 5: throwing one hundred miles an hour. But the problem is

1337
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 5: once you get him past the fifteenth pitch, it all

1338
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 5: just falls apart. So I think the Royals have a

1339
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:52,760
Speaker 5: better bullpen, and they've had the last couple of years.

1340
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 5: I'll say that there's promise here, this promise everywhere with

1341
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:58,240
Speaker 5: Kansas City, and I'll be looking to play him until

1342
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 5: they burn me and burn me and burn me. So yeah,

1343
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:03,480
Speaker 5: play on with the bullpen. How long can keep it together?

1344
01:00:03,480 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 5: That'd be shocking to me.

1345
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 3: Anything you want to respond to there as real now.

1346
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:13,200
Speaker 4: And I really just wanted to give the people, you know,

1347
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 4: a fun little experiment that they could do.

1348
01:00:15,800 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 2: Do me a favor.

1349
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,960
Speaker 4: Go to the roster research page for the Texas Rangers

1350
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 4: and look at their bullpen and other than Ian Kennedy,

1351
01:00:25,120 --> 01:00:26,920
Speaker 4: See if you know any of these guys, because I

1352
01:00:27,000 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 4: do this for a living, and my god, I don't

1353
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 4: know any of these people.

1354
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 3: Man, Yeah, I didn't notize this fullpen.

1355
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 5: They have more players than negative fielding war projected than

1356
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 5: they do positive fielding more projected.

1357
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 3: A couple questions, I just rapid fire the two main ones.

1358
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 3: I wanted to get to plus one and a half

1359
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 3: versus money line for a dog presumably a bigger dog.

1360
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:48,760
Speaker 3: I'll just share my quick thoughts. It's like, I mean,

1361
01:00:48,760 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 3: there's basically like a formula that you can use to

1362
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 3: translate the run line to a money line, and it'll

1363
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 3: depend on if the team is home or away. It's

1364
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 3: mainly a feel thing for me when I'll try to

1365
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 3: use run line, and it's gonna generally be a bigger

1366
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 3: a really big dog I would need plus money. Generally speaking,

1367
01:01:06,520 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a big dog on the road. If

1368
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 3: it's a lower scoring game, like with a lower total,

1369
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:14,320
Speaker 3: that's obviously gonna make it more appealing. But also if

1370
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:16,120
Speaker 3: they just have a if they just have a closer

1371
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 3: against a ridiculous offense that I don't trust, Like, for example,

1372
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:24,480
Speaker 3: there'll be times when I want to fade the Dodgers,

1373
01:01:24,760 --> 01:01:26,960
Speaker 3: who just seem to win every game in the bottom

1374
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 3: of the ninth at home against Penns. So like, if

1375
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 3: I ever wanted to play like the Rockies at the

1376
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 3: Dodgers this year, please I hope I don't, and they

1377
01:01:35,040 --> 01:01:37,240
Speaker 3: were a big price. I might look plus one and

1378
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 3: a half just on a field thing Pitcher's Park. Maybe

1379
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:41,920
Speaker 3: it's a lower total and I just don't trust the

1380
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 3: Rockies to ever have the lead and then close it out.

1381
01:01:44,880 --> 01:01:47,320
Speaker 3: And then obviously the Dodgers come back and win by one.

1382
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 3: They could always hit a Grand Slam. But that's why

1383
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: the plus one and a half is more value. It's

1384
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:53,880
Speaker 3: obviously priced in the market on the road, but mainly

1385
01:01:53,920 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 3: just a field thing for me. Those are some of

1386
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 3: the factors I look for zero any thoughts, here's run line.

1387
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 3: The new extra name screws things up a little bit.

1388
01:02:01,720 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 4: You know, you have the runners starting on second base,

1389
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 4: so on the bottom half of the tenth inning, if

1390
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 4: it's still a tie.

1391
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 3: Game, a home run is going to end you. Yeah,

1392
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:11,520
Speaker 3: it's it.

1393
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 4: Just it tweaks the percentages slightly. I believe the average

1394
01:02:15,600 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 4: number of games ending with a one run difference are

1395
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:23,000
Speaker 4: like fourteen to seventeen percent. I obviously need to recalculate

1396
01:02:23,000 --> 01:02:26,920
Speaker 4: it for the new extra ding rule, but yeah, generally speaking,

1397
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 4: I do not play regular spreads. If anything, I'm gonna

1398
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 4: play a reverse run line on a dog I like,

1399
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 4: or a dog I think the line should be flipped

1400
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:36,919
Speaker 4: on where they're an underdog and I think they should

1401
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:40,120
Speaker 4: be favored. So that's generally where I look with spreads,

1402
01:02:40,160 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 4: the Matt Mitchell Special, the reverse run line.

1403
01:02:42,960 --> 01:02:45,480
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, let's do this.

1404
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna try to give a few more of

1405
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 4: those out this year, but also on Actionnetwork dot Com

1406
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 4: thanks to Travis Reid, who runs Sports Insights and bet Labs,

1407
01:02:54,120 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 4: We're gonna have a formula with my projections that should

1408
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 4: help you calculate the edge on spreads. So that should

1409
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 4: be the app and that should be on the projections

1410
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 4: tab on Action Network dot Com pretty soon.

1411
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:05,200
Speaker 3: Any thoughts, sir, I don't.

1412
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,920
Speaker 5: Do a run line over minus one ten. Generally it

1413
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 5: also goes back to do I trust the bullpen? Do

1414
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:11,320
Speaker 5: I think this team can have a lead?

1415
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:12,000
Speaker 2: Yes? Do I can?

1416
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 5: I trust the bullpen to hold it. That's where the

1417
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 5: run line usually comes in for me, and generally I

1418
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 5: don't ever go over minus one ten on any run

1419
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 5: line whatsoever. If I've got to swallow a money line

1420
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,960
Speaker 5: around minus one forty, I'll do it. But for me,

1421
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 5: it's a pricing thing I don't like to take.

1422
01:03:27,920 --> 01:03:28,439
Speaker 2: I know it, stuck.

1423
01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:29,960
Speaker 5: You're a little bit different, like you will take a

1424
01:03:30,000 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 5: dog at plus one eighty as to where I'll go

1425
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:34,600
Speaker 5: plus one and a half at like a plus one

1426
01:03:34,680 --> 01:03:37,160
Speaker 5: oh five, Right, So it's just your preference and how

1427
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:39,920
Speaker 5: much you trust the bullpen because you obviously think the

1428
01:03:39,920 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 5: team can win, but can they hold it together at

1429
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 5: the end.

1430
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 3: Getting through the baseball season mentally intact is important for me.

1431
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 3: This isn't my strongest sport. I enjoy betting it all season,

1432
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 3: and I'm just trying to grind out a profit. So like,

1433
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 3: if I have a thought that this team is going

1434
01:03:56,920 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 3: to blow it in the ninth, I know it, but

1435
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:01,080
Speaker 3: I show some value and then I just start to

1436
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 3: have that thought already, like and then if I watch

1437
01:04:03,480 --> 01:04:05,440
Speaker 3: it happen, like I'm like, then I'm just like, you

1438
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 3: know what, I'm just gonna take the plus money on

1439
01:04:07,080 --> 01:04:09,720
Speaker 3: the plus one and a half if they win whatever,

1440
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 3: had I won the bet regardless. So it's probably flawed

1441
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:18,560
Speaker 3: logic online, but protecting my mental state throughout the grind

1442
01:04:18,560 --> 01:04:22,200
Speaker 3: of a baseball season in like June is important at times.

1443
01:04:22,240 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 3: So that's a time where I'll let like biases creep in.

1444
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 3: It's like, fine, I'm just taking the run line when

1445
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 3: I'm arguing myself the other question action versus listed pictures.

1446
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 3: For me, I will always when giving you opportunity use listed,

1447
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:39,360
Speaker 3: But people don't understand when you do action, is that

1448
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 3: if there's a pitching change, the line is going to

1449
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 3: move like this. This is what you don't understand. So yeah,

1450
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:48,080
Speaker 3: unless I'm I think that there's a chance that like

1451
01:04:48,120 --> 01:04:50,000
Speaker 3: I don't know who's going to start for the team,

1452
01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna like them regardless, So like, I don't

1453
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:55,280
Speaker 3: want my bet to get canceled, right, Like, so teams

1454
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 3: that use openers and like, all right, I could see

1455
01:04:57,080 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 3: them maybe using a different picture for the first inning

1456
01:04:59,480 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 3: or something, and I'm going to like it regardless. But

1457
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 3: when I'm betting base I want to know who's starting.

1458
01:05:04,920 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 3: It's a huge part of the handicap. I guess it's

1459
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 3: becoming not as important for some teams anymore. But so

1460
01:05:12,400 --> 01:05:16,680
Speaker 3: when given the choice, I will always do listed. So

1461
01:05:16,760 --> 01:05:18,360
Speaker 3: people think that like, hey, if you do action and

1462
01:05:18,360 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 3: then this picture gets scratched and then you go to

1463
01:05:21,000 --> 01:05:23,080
Speaker 3: like a scrub pitcher, but that the line will adjust

1464
01:05:23,160 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 3: on you. Is there really any thoughts your action versus listed. Yeah, No,

1465
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:26,840
Speaker 3: I'm on the sad page as you.

1466
01:05:27,240 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 4: Unfortunately a lot of books have moved away from it,

1467
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 4: and we'll only let you bet action out there seems

1468
01:05:31,320 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 4: to be a disagreement between the New Jersey books and

1469
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:35,760
Speaker 4: the Las Vegas books as to how they run that.

1470
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 4: But this is just an opportunity to write remind people

1471
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:42,200
Speaker 4: be familiar with the rules at where you're betting. Books

1472
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 4: handle rainouts way differently. Some call games official at five

1473
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:48,320
Speaker 4: and a half innings or feign halfnings. Some will call

1474
01:05:48,360 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 4: them official at you know, only if it goes to

1475
01:05:50,480 --> 01:05:53,040
Speaker 4: full nine innings. There was a lot of debate around

1476
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:56,560
Speaker 4: that last year because games were being postponed and then replayed,

1477
01:05:56,640 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 4: is extended as part of seven inning double headers.

1478
01:05:58,760 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 3: It was all freaking mess.

1479
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:02,520
Speaker 4: So just read the books, read the rules of the

1480
01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 4: books where you're betting these games, and be familiar as

1481
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:07,400
Speaker 4: to how they were going to handle the wonky situations,

1482
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 4: because I believe it or not, they will pop up

1483
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:09,440
Speaker 4: a few.

1484
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:09,840
Speaker 3: Times a year.

1485
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:10,360
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1486
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 5: For me, if you have a choice, I do my

1487
01:06:12,920 --> 01:06:16,000
Speaker 5: I do my underdogs with action, and I do my

1488
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:18,480
Speaker 5: list of pictures for my favorites because if you have,

1489
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:20,760
Speaker 5: you know, if you're betting on kershar shares or and

1490
01:06:20,760 --> 01:06:22,360
Speaker 5: they get replaced, you don't want to be stuck with

1491
01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:24,560
Speaker 5: a minus one seventy to minus two hundred and then again,

1492
01:06:24,800 --> 01:06:27,080
Speaker 5: if you've got plus one fifty on, say you know

1493
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:30,560
Speaker 5: a guy that's fourth or fifth in the rotation and there's,

1494
01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:32,320
Speaker 5: you know, a pitching change on some way, and then

1495
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:34,320
Speaker 5: he's all of a sudden minus one ten because the

1496
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:37,040
Speaker 5: other team has a different listed picture. Then that's that's

1497
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:40,320
Speaker 5: just the way I play it. Dogs, Dogs Action favorites

1498
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 5: list of pictures.

1499
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:44,120
Speaker 3: We'll close out with because one of the questions I

1500
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:45,680
Speaker 3: have is, look, I don't want to deal with the

1501
01:06:46,520 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 3: grind of betting daily baseball, so I want like win

1502
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:52,680
Speaker 3: totals and futures to root for, which is perfectly fair.

1503
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 3: So we'll go through. We'll close out the show with

1504
01:06:55,920 --> 01:07:00,280
Speaker 3: our favorite futures, win totals props that we still think

1505
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:02,160
Speaker 3: have value. But before we do that, I want to

1506
01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:05,000
Speaker 3: tell you about our friends at Athletic Brewing Company, makers

1507
01:07:05,040 --> 01:07:09,960
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1508
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1509
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:16,040
Speaker 3: You know what, because they make good decisions and they

1510
01:07:16,120 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 3: don't get sloppy. Reminds me of how I feel even

1511
01:07:19,280 --> 01:07:23,120
Speaker 3: after a few surveys Atleticas Because for years now Athletic

1512
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1513
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1514
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:32,240
Speaker 3: the alcohol. So if you're thinking of taking it easy

1515
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 3: on the booze this April and keeping your gambling wits

1516
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Speaker 3: about you, Athletic Brewings award winning beers are a great option.

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01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:03,360
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1524
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:07,480
Speaker 3: taste while keeping your gambling edge. So shut out to

1525
01:08:07,600 --> 01:08:11,240
Speaker 3: our sponsors at Athletic Brewing and also to bet On GM,

1526
01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:14,360
Speaker 3: the official adds provider of the Action Network podcast. Make

1527
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 3: sure if you screwed over there, take advantage of some

1528
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:18,200
Speaker 3: of the bonus offers that they have, which you can

1529
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 3: find on actionnetwork dot com. All right, so before we

1530
01:08:20,520 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 3: get out of here, favorite futures that still have value,

1531
01:08:26,800 --> 01:08:30,120
Speaker 3: could be win totals, could be props, could be anything.

1532
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:31,680
Speaker 3: All I'll start with you, what do you want to

1533
01:08:31,720 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 3: throw out?

1534
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 4: There three teams that show value both in the divisional

1535
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 4: and World Series markets. That's the Astras, the Mets, and

1536
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 4: the Brewers. I think we already mentioned them. I'm also

1537
01:08:39,840 --> 01:08:42,639
Speaker 4: betting Cleveland in the Al Central after that Elo Him

1538
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 4: and haz injury. There's a ten to one number out there.

1539
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 4: Believe it, points bet you can absolutely hit that. I

1540
01:08:48,880 --> 01:08:50,759
Speaker 4: think I like that down to about plus seven hundred.

1541
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:54,400
Speaker 4: So again, Astra's, Mets, Brewers, and Cleveland I think are

1542
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:56,160
Speaker 4: all live in the divisional markets.

1543
01:08:56,479 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 3: I got to give you a few long shot player

1544
01:08:58,240 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 3: props so.

1545
01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 4: That I really like two in particular, Vlagerer Junior for

1546
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:05,600
Speaker 4: most RBIs, I have him fifteenth in my RBI projections.

1547
01:09:05,760 --> 01:09:08,760
Speaker 4: Everyone around him in my projections is listed between twenty

1548
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 4: five and thirty five to one. They're going to be

1549
01:09:10,840 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 4: playing in an offensive firehouse and dunnating.

1550
01:09:13,680 --> 01:09:15,240
Speaker 3: We don't really know what that.

1551
01:09:15,479 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 4: Park is going to play at exactly, but we do

1552
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:20,200
Speaker 4: have indications that it's going to be a strong, offensive

1553
01:09:20,240 --> 01:09:22,519
Speaker 4: leaning park. Blue Jay is expected to score a ton

1554
01:09:22,520 --> 01:09:25,040
Speaker 4: of runs anyway, and Vladdie is an eighty hit tool.

1555
01:09:25,080 --> 01:09:27,479
Speaker 4: It's the only eighty hit tool that baseball perspective has

1556
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,479
Speaker 4: ever given out. So this kid, when he breaks out,

1557
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:33,880
Speaker 4: it's going to be absolute lightning. And I think it's

1558
01:09:33,960 --> 01:09:35,599
Speaker 4: possible that it's this year lost a lot of weight,

1559
01:09:35,640 --> 01:09:36,719
Speaker 4: looks really good in spring.

1560
01:09:37,320 --> 01:09:38,280
Speaker 3: The other one I really like.

1561
01:09:38,439 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 4: Not listed to too many books, Trevor Rosenthal for most saves.

1562
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:45,960
Speaker 4: He's assuming Liam Hendrick's role in Oakland since the midpoint

1563
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:48,360
Speaker 4: of the twenty nineteen season, Hendricks was the same leader.

1564
01:09:48,360 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 4: I believe he had thirty four Rosenbal rebounded from Tommy

1565
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:55,440
Speaker 4: john first year back. He had more walks and shrikeouts.

1566
01:09:55,439 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 4: He was a complete disaster. Last year was the best

1567
01:09:57,400 --> 01:09:59,920
Speaker 4: year of his career. He was electric, velocity was no

1568
01:10:00,200 --> 01:10:02,240
Speaker 4: higher than it previously had been. He was still sitting

1569
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:05,320
Speaker 4: ninety eight, but he rediscovered's command. He looked awesome.

1570
01:10:05,840 --> 01:10:07,800
Speaker 3: So he's eighth in my Satas projections.

1571
01:10:08,120 --> 01:10:11,200
Speaker 4: Again, everyone around him in the market, the projection market

1572
01:10:11,240 --> 01:10:13,640
Speaker 4: relative to betting market, they're all listed in the ten

1573
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:17,200
Speaker 4: to fourteen to one range, so twenty to one Rosenthal probably.

1574
01:10:16,880 --> 01:10:18,320
Speaker 3: Like that down to fifteen to one. I think he's

1575
01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:21,760
Speaker 3: a really good snipe at his parentos with Guerrero too,

1576
01:10:21,840 --> 01:10:24,320
Speaker 3: he's all the reports are he's lifting the ball in

1577
01:10:24,400 --> 01:10:27,680
Speaker 3: spring training really positive us. And then now you have

1578
01:10:27,720 --> 01:10:30,800
Speaker 3: all these questions about their pitching right like you have

1579
01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 3: Yates injury. A lot of their starters are hurt. So

1580
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:36,000
Speaker 3: if they're getting blown out or they're in these just

1581
01:10:36,080 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 3: higher scoring games, I think it's just going to lead

1582
01:10:37,960 --> 01:10:41,160
Speaker 3: the more offensive numbers for Guerrero Colin. What do you

1583
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:41,599
Speaker 3: want to mention?

1584
01:10:41,960 --> 01:10:44,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, and take note that the Blue Jays are starting

1585
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:47,080
Speaker 5: off with their spring training facility. That is a place

1586
01:10:47,200 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 5: where the wind blows straight out the left, So not

1587
01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 5: just black Guerrero Junior. I like ti Oscar Hernandez on

1588
01:10:52,840 --> 01:10:54,640
Speaker 5: a home run prop, there's going to be a lot

1589
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:57,280
Speaker 5: of runs scored there. As far as win totals go,

1590
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:00,559
Speaker 5: I think there's value in taking the Tigers under the GM,

1591
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:02,200
Speaker 5: and the owners have made it very clear that this

1592
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:03,720
Speaker 5: is not the year to buy. They will not be

1593
01:11:03,760 --> 01:11:06,160
Speaker 5: buying until next year, so they will actually try to

1594
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 5: shed whatever value they can find out of this roster

1595
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:09,479
Speaker 5: at the break.

1596
01:11:09,560 --> 01:11:10,559
Speaker 2: Same thing with the Phillies.

1597
01:11:10,600 --> 01:11:12,640
Speaker 5: They have one hundred and ninety two million dollars contract

1598
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:15,599
Speaker 5: new president of operations. It's probably gonna want to get

1599
01:11:15,600 --> 01:11:18,640
Speaker 5: his own players, his own contracts in there. I like

1600
01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:21,479
Speaker 5: the Astros to win the AL. I like the Brewers

1601
01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 5: their current price, anything plus three hundred or above to

1602
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:26,120
Speaker 5: get to the Central And you know, let's put up

1603
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:29,559
Speaker 5: throw out some Kukichi cy Young odds here. I mean

1604
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:32,240
Speaker 5: the extreme long shot, but I mean with everywhere that

1605
01:11:32,280 --> 01:11:35,080
Speaker 5: he pitches and the velocity he's throwing at, I mean,

1606
01:11:35,120 --> 01:11:37,839
Speaker 5: all we need to do is get what fourteen wins

1607
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:39,160
Speaker 5: out of him for the Mariners.

1608
01:11:39,160 --> 01:11:40,080
Speaker 2: That's good enough for me.

1609
01:11:40,320 --> 01:11:42,600
Speaker 3: Especially if he's gonna pitch every day, every day, a

1610
01:11:42,640 --> 01:11:45,240
Speaker 3: lot of opportunities to pick up wins. Yeah, I agree.

1611
01:11:45,280 --> 01:11:48,799
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm with you guys on Mets Division, Brewer's Division,

1612
01:11:49,280 --> 01:11:53,040
Speaker 3: Astro's Division. Those are the three that I'll throw ten

1613
01:11:53,080 --> 01:11:55,519
Speaker 3: to one, I would let I'll I would like the

1614
01:11:55,520 --> 01:11:57,880
Speaker 3: Indians to win that division two as well. All right,

1615
01:11:57,920 --> 01:12:00,840
Speaker 3: So that'll do it for us. I'm excited to uh

1616
01:12:01,960 --> 01:12:04,360
Speaker 3: go through the grind and the ups and downs of

1617
01:12:04,439 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 3: the MLB Baseball betting season. You know that you won't

1618
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:10,800
Speaker 3: find any better content out there than what you'll find

1619
01:12:10,840 --> 01:12:13,120
Speaker 3: on actionework dot Com the Action Network.

1620
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:14,920
Speaker 2: App, so make sure you check that out.

1621
01:12:15,000 --> 01:12:19,160
Speaker 3: We'll have an abundance of content starting from opening day

1622
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 3: through the world series. Thank you for listening. Subscribe on

1623
01:12:23,320 --> 01:12:24,879
Speaker 3: subscribe on subscribe subscribe.

1624
01:12:24,880 --> 01:12:25,439
Speaker 2: You know the drill.

1625
01:12:25,479 --> 01:12:27,720
Speaker 3: Tell a friend toone enemy. Make sure you check out

1626
01:12:27,720 --> 01:12:30,080
Speaker 3: all our plays on the Action Network app good Luck.

1627
01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:34,080
Speaker 3: This season made the bullpen Luck. Be on your side

1628
01:12:34,360 --> 01:12:36,040
Speaker 3: and we'll catch you later.

1629
01:12:36,280 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 2: Cheers. He's out.

1630
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:19,439
Speaker 3: We're finished talking.