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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the Podcast, presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: We are live from our.

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Speaker 1: Midtown Manhattan studios, the Tommy John Studio at Action Network HQ.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my cos my companion, my

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Speaker 1: campadre might b FF, Simon Hunter l Osimon.

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Speaker 3: We made a brother, we made it.

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Speaker 2: We get to see each other face to face.

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Speaker 1: Last night, you and I went to dinner together and

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Speaker 1: we talked about all the things that bff's talk about

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Speaker 1: when they're at dinner together. Most importantly, are we overinvested

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Speaker 1: in the Carolina Panthers?

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Speaker 2: Have we made a mistake on the Giants?

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Speaker 1: Can you convince me to actually bet the Bears instead

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Speaker 1: of the Titans.

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Speaker 2: We are going to get to all of it.

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week one Best Bets episode. Simon

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Speaker 1: or nine narrowed down our five picks and the Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest

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Speaker 1: presented by BET three six five. Don't forget you can

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Speaker 1: still sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. On

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Speaker 1: today's show, as we will do every Thursday this season.

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Speaker 1: We'll do sharp calls, our big balls, bet of the week,

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Speaker 1: the underdog, moneyline, parlay Survivor, pool picks, Simon's biggest bets.

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Speaker 1: Our director of Research, Evan Abrams, will join us, and

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Speaker 1: so much more. But first, as a reminder, the Favorites

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Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three six five and this

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Speaker 1: just in new Bet three sixty five customers now get

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Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars.

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Speaker 2: Sign up using promo code.

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Speaker 1: Favorites, deposit ten dollars and place a bet for five

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Speaker 1: dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.

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Speaker 2: And more.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty

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Speaker 1: five must be twenty one. We're older in president in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen or

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms conditioning

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply once again. If you want to sign up

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Speaker 1: for the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick

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Speaker 1: Them contest, free to play five picks every single week

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Speaker 1: season long. If you want to get in before week one,

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Speaker 1: now is the time to do it.

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Speaker 2: You will have.

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Speaker 1: Chances to get in over the next couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: because we drop a couple of scores, but now is

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Speaker 1: the time to get in if you want to have

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Speaker 1: the full slate for the next eighteen weeks. That's all

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Speaker 1: the way into the new year.

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Speaker 2: Folks.

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Speaker 1: Don't get left behind. It's totally free to play. Like

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Speaker 1: I said, just five picks against it spread every single week.

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Speaker 2: Over one hundred grand in cash prizes up for grabs.

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Speaker 1: You will be competing against me and Simon the picks

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Speaker 1: that we talk about on this show. What we narrow

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Speaker 1: it down to that is what will end up in

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Speaker 1: the contest. First place in this contest takes home forty

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Speaker 1: grand every single week. The first place finisher, the person

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Speaker 1: who has the best record during the week, gets one

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. If they nail the tiebreaker exactly, that one

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Speaker 1: thousand grows to two thousand. We did hear people have

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Speaker 1: problems signing for the contest. We've gotten through that. Go

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Speaker 1: sign up now. Favorites dot actionnetwork, dot com. All right,

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Speaker 1: as always, we like to hear how the wise guys

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Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we

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Speaker 1: are as a podcast, Simon. The lines move based on

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Speaker 1: our conversations. It happen on Tuesday. We've seen it happen

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Speaker 1: over the last forty eight hours. The pros also feel

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Speaker 1: compelled the our own little sort of Roman senate, telling

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Speaker 1: us constantly what they think of our opinions. All right, Simon,

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Speaker 1: let's go to some sharp calls. Just give me the

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Speaker 1: highlights here. What games have the guy said, we're right

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Speaker 1: and we're wrong. Before we dive in a little bit deeper.

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Speaker 3: Hello, he's there. I'm talking rain range telephone range. Somebody said,

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Speaker 3: let's start with they hated Chad, because that's that's really

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Speaker 3: what people want to know. What the what are the

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Speaker 3: pros hate that we picked off the top? They hate

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Speaker 3: our lions pick they do. Yeah, they think we're walking

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Speaker 3: into it, and I disagree. I think this sets up

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Speaker 3: nice for this Detroit team at home in the scenario.

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Speaker 1: I think I love that they hate it because we're

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Speaker 1: going to come back around and it.

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Speaker 2: Raises the stakes.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a little bit on this bet for later in Well,

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Speaker 3: I just said to them it's brutal because it's the

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Speaker 3: only favorite. Mean you agreed on really, so you are okay?

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Speaker 3: That was one off the top. The number two is

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Speaker 3: a game you like. I know our guy Chris Raybaund likes.

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Speaker 3: They all like Tennessee. They keep throwing that stat in

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Speaker 3: my face, right, number one pick? Overall? What are they owe?

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Speaker 3: Fourteen and one in the last fifteen starts against the spread.

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Speaker 3: We'll get into that game because they got a lot

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Speaker 3: of opinions on the Chicago game, but I haven't budget

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Speaker 3: on that. I still love Chicago, so it's not shocking

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Speaker 3: to here. They love the Titans so much. The Detroit

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Speaker 3: one shocked me more the fact they love the Rams

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Speaker 3: so much, but this one didn't. For the last one

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Speaker 3: that they think we got wrong, Chad, I can't believe

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Speaker 3: it. It's the Giants they like. They like the Vikings. So

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Speaker 3: that's another one we're going to dive into. I just

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Speaker 3: don't think people understand that this Giants team isn't as

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Speaker 3: bad as they perceive. And that's what I'm trying to

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Speaker 3: get into people's heads here. That's why I try to

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Speaker 3: get to their heads. Man, I thought that was gonna

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Speaker 3: be the pros verse shows. I thought the public would

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Speaker 3: be on the Vikings, the pros would be on the Giants.

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Speaker 3: It's honestly split right in the middle of I've talked

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Speaker 3: to pros you like our side, and pros you really

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Speaker 3: hate that bet we have made. So that's off the

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Speaker 3: top for the ones they love. I think a couple

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Speaker 3: of the ones we knew they were gonna love, right,

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, that's a pros game. We knew the pros

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Speaker 3: would love that. Unfortunately, it sounds like it's a little

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Speaker 3: bit of the public game as well. The public has

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Speaker 3: come around on this Panthers team. It is, but again

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Speaker 3: I think it's because of the number. Right. We've seen

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Speaker 3: the four and a half now drop down to four

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Speaker 3: three and a half in a couple of books. So

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Speaker 3: to me, again that makes sense. The pros like the number.

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Speaker 3: I don't think we played the same as that three

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Speaker 3: and a half as we would at four and a half,

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Speaker 3: So to me, that's the big difference there. And the

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Speaker 3: last one is the Jets like the pros love the

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Speaker 3: Jets like the forty nine ers. They've had so much turmoil,

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Speaker 3: it makes sense why the public would be on the

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Speaker 3: Jets as well. And then you throw into the trends

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Speaker 3: all the numbers you want to be on the Jets

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Speaker 3: of four and a half. Even though even I get

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Speaker 3: the fear because there's been a lot of buyback on

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, I think it's just because it's

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Speaker 3: the money night game, right guys, we talk all the time.

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Speaker 3: People are gonna have their parlays, all their teasers tied

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Speaker 3: to this forty Niners team. So I'm not too shocked

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Speaker 3: the number's gone up. It's it's holding now four and

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Speaker 3: a half. Now, if me and you come into our

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Speaker 3: show Sunday night and then numbers up to six, I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna be scared because that's some big professional money coming

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Speaker 3: in on the fortnes But right now, to me, it's

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Speaker 3: business as usual. So as far as you guys for

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Speaker 3: sharp calls, we got a couple of picks they hate

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Speaker 3: chat and a couple of picks they love.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's good because it also allows us to dig

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Speaker 1: in a little bit deeper on some of these games.

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Speaker 2: The Giants game in particular the Lions game.

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Speaker 1: I know we talked about what are big balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the week presented by time of John by the way,

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Speaker 1: but what it might be before the show.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we need to call an audible. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna call the audible based on the sharp calls.

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Speaker 1: Okay, when we get to it, all right, So listen,

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Speaker 1: Simon and I discussed on Tuesday that you know, early

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Speaker 1: end of the season, we lean into these trends a

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Speaker 1: bit more than normal because we don't know a ton

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Speaker 1: about these teams yet, Like quarterbacks aren't playing a lot

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Speaker 1: during the regulars during the preseason, so it's hard to

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Speaker 1: judge the real tendencies of these teams at this point.

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Speaker 1: So we can't play spots, we can't take advantage of

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Speaker 1: a lot of mispricing.

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Speaker 2: All of that is just harder in weeks one and

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Speaker 2: week two. So there are a couple trends.

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Speaker 1: There's about three trends that I just want to highlight

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Speaker 1: right now if I refer back to them during the

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Speaker 1: show when I say this team follows the trends, it's

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Speaker 1: these trends just so I don't have to repeat them

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Speaker 1: every single time. Number one, again, all from the brilliant

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Speaker 1: mind of our director of research, Evan Abrams. Underdogs between

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Speaker 1: one and five and a half points in Week one

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Speaker 1: cover at a sixty four percent clip since twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: to sample size of nearly one hundred and fifty games.

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Speaker 1: By the way, they're also fifty eight percent over the

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Speaker 1: past decade. Really good trend for underdogs in that one

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Speaker 1: to five and a half. Ranch favorites of one to

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Speaker 1: three and a half points cover only forty three of

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Speaker 1: the time in September based off of sample size and

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Speaker 1: more than five hundred and fifty games. Road dogs who

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Speaker 1: missed the playoffs the year before fifty eight percent against

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Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. A lot of games

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Speaker 1: that fit into all these trends, plus some divisional stuff

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Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about. Look, the first game

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Speaker 1: that is sort of on the edge of our top five,

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in Atlanta. Atlanta is a three point favorite. We've

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Speaker 1: been holding out hoping to get three and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the few games that hasn't moved a

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Speaker 1: lot of games have. The juice is on the minus

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Speaker 1: three at minus one twenty, so it could go to

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Speaker 1: three and a half. They're asking us to pay the

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Speaker 1: price to get the three. I just think it's like,

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Speaker 1: the more I think about this game, so hard not

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Speaker 1: to back the Steelers here right It is like one

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Speaker 1: of those bets that did not get a lot of

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Speaker 1: my attention in the last until the past forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: I'd even make it a candidate for underdog parlay, which

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get to.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it won't get there, but look the stats I

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Speaker 2: ticked off at the top of the show. Irrelevant.

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin the best underdog coach against the spread the

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Speaker 1: past twenty years.

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that

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Speaker 3: all the time, Like, that's what the hell we paid

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Speaker 3: to do?

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Speaker 2: Is gonna make our final five? Do we like Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: right now?

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Speaker 3: We like Pittsburgh. You said, there's a lot of books

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Speaker 3: out there that have this at three and a half.

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Speaker 3: The book we're working with as it at three. Are

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Speaker 3: we really going to force it in at a two

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Speaker 3: and a half at a bad number when there's three

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Speaker 3: and a halfs out there?

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Speaker 2: Good point?

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Speaker 3: No, Like that's just something we never do. So we

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Speaker 3: like this number. This is another game though the pros

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Speaker 3: are split on. I think there's some professionals that really

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Speaker 3: love this Atlanta team. They got them pegged as eleven

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Speaker 3: twelve win team, a top seed in the NFC, and this,

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Speaker 3: to them is a game that kind of sets that

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Speaker 3: benchmark because Alanta does have some tough games here early

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Speaker 3: in the slate. So looking at this matchup, I think

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Speaker 3: me and Chat said what we need to say about

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Speaker 3: this one, where it's like we like the coaching matchup

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Speaker 3: better for Pittsburgh. We like Pittsburgh's defense much more than

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Speaker 3: we trust Atlanta's offense, especially again, Kirk Cousins first game

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Speaker 3: after coming off this injury. You know, Achilles is a

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Speaker 3: big deal, especially if someone that's putting all their power

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Speaker 3: and their weight onto that back keel every time they

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Speaker 3: push off. Every throw he makes is on that back heel.

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Speaker 3: So my hesitation for Atlanta is valid. The numbers though,

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Speaker 3: that's what we're playing here. Like three and a half.

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Speaker 3: I love Pittsburgh. If if it's two and a half,

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Speaker 3: there's no chance, there's no chance out of anything about.

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Speaker 2: Prose in the contest, We're not going to play it

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Speaker 2: a two and a half.

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Speaker 3: But three and a half. I bet Pittsburgh every day, and.

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Speaker 1: It's very possible that if we wait because the contest plays.

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Speaker 1: We can go until Sunday and the lines are dynamic.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers get to three and a half. And if

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Speaker 1: I've got the Steelers at three and a half on

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Speaker 1: the road with Mike Tomlin against a coach who is

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Speaker 1: not a rookie head coach and Rhuemorris but is new

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Speaker 1: with this team, and Kirk Cousins coughing off in.

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Speaker 2: Achilles, and like TJ.

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Speaker 1: Watt on the edge against Kirk Cousins off in Achilles,

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Speaker 1: that will be a very hard game.

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Speaker 3: You ain't know to us no more now, you know

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Speaker 3: what I mean? And they just they just paid Cam Heyward,

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Speaker 3: Like it's yeah, that defense for Pittsburgh, I mean we

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Speaker 3: can make fun of their offense that is incredible, Like

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Speaker 3: they just got skills across every every line. The secondary

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Speaker 3: is incredible. So's that's our real big hesitation, right we

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Speaker 3: want to play this one. There's the numbers not there

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Speaker 3: for us right now?

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Speaker 1: All right, Jags in Miami Dolphins three and a half.

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Speaker 1: We had been on monsoon watch for this game. It

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Speaker 1: looks like the weather is going to be clear. The

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Speaker 1: line has moved in Miami's direction the past forty hours.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why. I don't know if you have

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Speaker 2: any insights there weather.

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Speaker 3: If it's gonna be good weather, that definitely favors Miami.

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Speaker 1: But if that doesn't make any sense, because you can't

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Speaker 1: logically look at these teams and say, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: Miami is a field goal better. You only have to

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Speaker 1: look at the first eight weeks of the Jaguars last year,

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Speaker 1: and no, this was a team that was going to

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Speaker 1: win their division if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt.

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Speaker 3: And I think, honestly, that's why we like this number

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Speaker 3: so much. It feels like too much respect is being

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Speaker 3: paid to Miami what they did last year, how dominant

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Speaker 3: and great they were at home. And another thing you

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Speaker 3: could throw in we didn't even talk about it is

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Speaker 3: they struggled against good teams, right, Like I think there

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Speaker 3: were one and seven last year against playoff teams. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars run a playoff team. Last year. We just

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Speaker 3: said it. They were gonna be a good team. They're

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Speaker 3: a really good team. Like if they didn't have injuries

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Speaker 3: and they didn't fall off the cliff, they would have

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Speaker 3: been in the playoffs last year. So I'm going to

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Speaker 3: complete agreeance to chat here. It's just the hate for

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars has gone too far, and a game of

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Speaker 3: week both expect will be a shootout. I love the

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Speaker 3: Jaguars to stay in this game, like everything they do.

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Speaker 3: I never feel like, even if they're down ten, it

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Speaker 3: feels like me Chad will get that back towards the

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Speaker 3: end of the game. So to me, the key number

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Speaker 3: three and a half, I'm right there with you, Chad.

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Speaker 3: I would not be shocked this is one of our five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so interesting to me if you look at

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, no Ramsey, Jaylen Ramsey, no Chubb on the edge,

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Speaker 1: Christian Wilkins is gone, their defense has no real game changers.

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Speaker 1: We have Trevor Lawrence to twenty two to one to

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Speaker 1: lead the league in passing yards, Like we believe in

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Speaker 1: this Jaguars team, probably a lot more obviously than them.

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Speaker 2: It does. Man, I'm putting them on the list.

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Speaker 3: Them on the list, just like I'm.

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Speaker 2: Not saying they're going to be in the finals. But

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Speaker 2: it's really hard not to consider.

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Speaker 3: It's a really nice number with how much we like them.

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Speaker 2: Our foxhold bet on Tuesday was Vike's.

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Speaker 1: At Giants Giants plus one and a half. We've been

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Speaker 1: talking about the Giants plus one and a half since

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Speaker 1: the off season when these lines first posted. We have

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Speaker 1: planted a flag in the sand. We have pushed our

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Speaker 1: chips in the middle of the table. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: you and I had dinner last night, we're talking about

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Speaker 1: all these games. This morning, before I came in, I

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Speaker 1: listened to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod.

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Speaker 1: They do their Sunday six pack, which I love. I

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Speaker 1: like to listen to them because I like to see like,

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Speaker 1: are they are we on the same side of some

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Speaker 1: of their games? And we were on the same side

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Speaker 1: of a lot of the games.

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Speaker 2: They love the vikings here. Yeah, you've mentioned this.

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Speaker 1: From sharp calls, like in every way we are invested

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Speaker 1: in the Giants on this one now, I feel like

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Speaker 1: we're really in a foxhole. We're against Ducky and Rayvaon

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Speaker 1: and we're against the wise guys. Are you gonna have

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Speaker 1: to talk me off a wedge?

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Speaker 3: No, because I think they're painting as if it's a

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Speaker 3: perfect world. Where I get it, the Giants secondary is

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Speaker 3: where you can attack them. What's the strength of this

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Speaker 3: Vie can see their wideouts right, But it's Sam Donald

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Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it is Sam Darnald

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Speaker 3: And like, to me, there's a bunch of things where, yeah,

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Speaker 3: maybe chat when we're down fourteen to three in the

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Speaker 3: first quarter, I'm gonna feel like an idiot because it's like,

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Speaker 3: why did we back this team? But I just can't

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Speaker 3: see a plane out that way, Like, I just think

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Speaker 3: Davo's gonna have this team so prepared. This Giants team,

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Speaker 3: like everything I've read and seen this team. Daniel Jones

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Speaker 3: has kind of gotten off those early seasons coming back

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Speaker 3: from big injury. Right, he did not look right for

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Speaker 3: the first two weeks of camp, but I totally agree

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Speaker 3: with those people. These last three weeks, he's really put

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Speaker 3: together a lot of a lot of good camps to

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Speaker 3: get practices. Then you mix in. I don't think these

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Speaker 3: enough people are a factor in neighbors, Like he's never

337
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Speaker 3: had a neighbors. Like, as much as we want to

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Speaker 3: praise Saquon Barkley, do running backs move the needle? Chad?

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Speaker 3: Not for us. Like, if it's a running back going

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Speaker 3: to do a great team like McCaffrey, that's a big

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Speaker 3: deal to me and you like we always talk about

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Speaker 3: how big of a deal that was that Carolina trade

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Speaker 3: other scenarios, It doesn't really make that big if you're

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Speaker 3: a bad team. Their running backs not the key. Like,

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Speaker 3: you need a got on the outside that can win

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Speaker 3: one on ones, and I think Neighbors is that guy

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Speaker 3: for this team. Again, Marvin Harrison Junior was not in

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Speaker 3: this draft, Chad, he would have been a number one receiver,

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Speaker 3: easily would have been a top five pick. Most likely.

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Speaker 3: This kid is that gifted. So to me, I still

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Speaker 3: think not all lough Love's being paid to this Giants team.

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Speaker 3: The only hesitation for me is their defensive corner who

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Speaker 3: we respected a lot. He left and went to Ohio State, right,

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Speaker 3: so that means their defense is gonna be a little

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Speaker 3: different this year. They bad at pieces Like to me,

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Speaker 3: their linebacking corps is really good. The fact they brought

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Speaker 3: in Burns to try to stify someone on the outside

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Speaker 3: because again already know inside they're great inside the detackled position.

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Speaker 3: They have one of the best attacks on football, So

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Speaker 3: you know, to me, it just keeps adding up to

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Speaker 3: This Giants team got the six wins last year with

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Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito and good coaching. Now they have a better

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Speaker 3: rush than they've had in David's whole career there, and

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Speaker 3: people are selling them. They're just totally out on this team,

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Speaker 3: and we're getting them as a home dog against Sam

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Speaker 3: Darnod on the road, a guy who is I don't

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Speaker 3: remember if I have. I think Evan Sady's four and

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Speaker 3: ten is a favorite. So it's like it's just all

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Speaker 3: adding up. We like the trends, we like the team,

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Speaker 3: we like the matchup. I think the hate, the public perception,

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Speaker 3: the hate on the Giants has gone too far, and

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Speaker 3: that's where we're getting such a good number on this

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Speaker 3: where you know, if this was late in the season,

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Speaker 3: there's no chance the Giants would be an underdog in

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Speaker 3: the spot. I think it's just really public public perceptions

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Speaker 3: really dictating this iron now. And like I said, you

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Speaker 3: said it too, there's pros on both sides here. So

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Speaker 3: this is definitely a standoff between the professionals on this

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Speaker 3: side where the public probably is not having to bet

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Speaker 3: this game because it's just when you look at the board,

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Speaker 3: they want nothing to do with this one. And so

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Speaker 3: these are the kind of games I love because this

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Speaker 3: really sets up both these teams for the season. People's

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Speaker 3: opinions on both teams.

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Speaker 1: I feel like this also answers so many debates two

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Speaker 1: years ago. Day Ball and Kevin O'Connell are rookie head coaches. Right,

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Speaker 1: they both have the kind of years they were one

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Speaker 1: and two in one score games. It was just a miracle.

389
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Speaker 1: Every single week one of them was winning a one

390
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Speaker 1: score game. They get to the playoffs. Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 1: Brian Dayball, Kevin O'Connell and the Giants beat the Vikings

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Speaker 1: at home. Right, Dayball wins Coach of the Year. He's

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Speaker 1: getting all the accolades. Like you said, like the pendulum

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Speaker 1: has swung so much. I feel like this is a

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Speaker 1: really interesting coaching definition game because of what we saw.

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Speaker 1: Like I have wondered for the past season that Kevin

397
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Speaker 1: O'Connell not get enough credit and you're always.

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Speaker 2: Like he lost at home in the playoffs to the

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Speaker 2: guy that we're saying is terrible, it deserves more credit.

400
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Speaker 1: So now both teams stink, both qbs are suspect. We

401
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Speaker 1: get a chance to see who deserves any hype as

402
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Speaker 1: a coach. I think this is a huge, huge game

403
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Speaker 1: for the trajectory of both of their coaching careers. You

404
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: talk me back into the house. Yeah, I was on

405
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Speaker 1: the ledge. I feel much more confident now it is

406
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Speaker 1: our foxhole. I am hyper invested in the Vikings. At

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Speaker 1: fifteen to one to have the worst record in the NFL,

408
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Speaker 1: I would very much like to kick it off with

409
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Speaker 1: a positive way. All right, Carolina at New Orleans. This

410
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Speaker 1: number is at four. This was my exec decision. The

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Speaker 1: Panthers may be the closest thing we have to a

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Speaker 1: consensus pick for the over this season. According to everybody

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Speaker 1: at the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, win totals.

415
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Speaker 1: We have expectation busting bets on the Carolina Panthers right now.

416
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Speaker 1: They've upgraded the offensive line at both cars a wide receiver,

417
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 1: they've upgraded at coaching. All of the trends that I

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Speaker 1: mentioned at the top are applicable here.

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Speaker 2: One more I'll add for you.

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Speaker 1: NFL Division underdogs thirty seven fifteen and one against the

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Speaker 1: spread seventy one percent in week one since twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 1: covering by nearly five points per game. Couldn't feel better

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Speaker 1: about this Carolina vent except for the fact everybody in

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Speaker 1: the world is now on Carolina.

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Speaker 3: Well, actually, if you look even in the Action app

426
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Speaker 3: the tickets are slanted towards the Saints, but it's the

427
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Speaker 3: money is overwhelmingly on the Panthers. Like that's we say

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Speaker 3: the time, that's professional.

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Speaker 2: That's good, right, that's what we want.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's why even now I just opened

431
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Speaker 3: up to two of the most public sports books out there,

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Speaker 3: they're both they both have moved to three and a half,

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00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 3: which is shocking, like the books that don't take professional money. Somehow,

434
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 3: we're at three and a half. So it does show

435
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: the public yuck. You just said they are starting to

436
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 3: come in on this Panthers team. But like I said

437
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 3: to I think it's just because of the number, Like

438
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 3: four and a half. I felt like it was way

439
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 3: too high. Three and a half feels honestly right like this,

440
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 3: I have this number grade at three, So getting to

441
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 3: three and a half that sounds right to me. If

442
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 3: they got to three, I might be able to be

443
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 3: talking to taking the Saints because that's when the valley

444
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 3: does switch to them. But we're we're getting four and

445
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 3: a half right now in our contest, and you can

446
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 3: still get four and a half at a couple of

447
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 3: books out there. I know our sponsor a bet three

448
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 3: five is at four, but that's a good number, like

449
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 3: to me, this is going to be a closed game. Like,

450
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,439
Speaker 3: who do you think is gonna make the mistake here?

451
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 3: I think it's the Saints. Like I have more faith

452
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 3: than Bryce Young playing smart, playing safe, protecting the ball

453
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 3: where Derek Carr he's looking over his shoulder already. He

454
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 3: knows that Spencer Ratler's coming for that job. And even

455
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 3: the fans, the Saints fans are pushing for this kid.

456
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 3: So to me, I feel like Bryce Young is gonna

457
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: be playing free and care free in this new offense.

458
00:21:57,560 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: And like, again, we already talked at NASA about it

459
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,360
Speaker 3: during his new head coach. We love everything we've read

460
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 3: and heard coming out of the Panthers camp. The question

461
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 3: for us is their secondary. Like, at the end of

462
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 3: the day, they do have one of the worst secondaries

463
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 3: of football people. And I understand why you're like, well,

464
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 3: that's why I'm taking a love is over and that's

465
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 3: why I kind of like the Saints sustaining this game.

466
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 3: But do you like them at this number? That's my

467
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,479
Speaker 3: question of people. It's like, in this divisional game, how

468
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 3: do you not take the Panthers that are basically equals

469
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 3: with this Saints team. I know they don't look that

470
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 3: way because the win totals and the pup perception from

471
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,360
Speaker 3: last year. But to me, starting fresh with a brand

472
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 3: new season, this isn't last year, right, This isn't this

473
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 3: terrible bums we bet last year in this Panthers team.

474
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 3: This is a new Panthers team with a new identity,

475
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 3: whole new coaching staff. So yeah, to me, we're banking

476
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: on a big Bryce Shung bounce back this season. It's

477
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 3: got to start here, like if this guy's gonna wins

478
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: our divisional bet, Chad, he's got to win this week

479
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 3: one game. So again, we're gonna get into our money

480
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 3: line around robin bet later on. This is probably gonna

481
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 3: sneak in there for this money line a round robin. Yeah.

482
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 1: I think look, when we talk about the Panthers and

483
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 1: the reason why everybody action is so all over the Panthers,

484
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 1: partially because of their luck factors last year and all

485
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: the games that they lost, they were in a position

486
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: to win because of bad coaching, unlucky turnovers, things that

487
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: just happened that over the course of time regress back

488
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 1: for them in a good way. You mentioned Dave Canalis,

489
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: people who don't understand when Gino Smith went from sort

490
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: of me, you know, wandering quarterback, journeyman quarterback to pro bowler.

491
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 1: It was because Dave Canallis was his coach. Last season

492
00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 1: in Tampa Bay, when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman quarterback

493
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: to Bucks in the playoffs, Dave Canalis was his coach.

494
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: So we're all investing a lot in a regression to

495
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: the mean for their luck. We're investing a lot in

496
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 1: what Dave Canallice can do as a coach. We're investing

497
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: in improvements on the offensive line. We're investing in Bryce

498
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: Young being a little bit better. We're also fading in

499
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: a big way. What you just said, Dennis Allen, Derek

500
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 1: Carr truly at the bottom of their respective rankings when

501
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: it comes to coaches and quarterbacks against the spread during

502
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: their time in the league. I mean, these guys are

503
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: awful at this. And you mentioned Derek Carr already looking

504
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: over his shoulder. There was a study of a survey

505
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: the fan base with the least amount of optimism is

506
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints very possible Spencer Rattler is starting

507
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 1: a quarterback for the Saints with a different coach. By

508
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 1: the time we're talking about this, team four weeks from now.

509
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: I believe it before Halloween for sure. All right, Arizona Buffalo.

510
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: I don't feel like we want to put this one in.

511
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 2: No skip it.

512
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 3: I will say that we didn't even talk about sharp calls,

513
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 3: but that was definitely one where if you're a fan

514
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 3: of the show and you listened to us back in May,

515
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 3: I love the Bills. I thought we were getting a

516
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 3: good night. One of the Bills basically got a bunch

517
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 3: of sharp calls bullied me to getting off my position

518
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 3: on that, moving towards Arizona, which people know if they

519
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,400
Speaker 3: listen all summer, I do love Arizona. There's too many

520
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 3: questions here, Chad. There's too many questions, and I don't

521
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,479
Speaker 3: like how the number has been moving. It went from

522
00:25:11,520 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: five and a half up to six and a half.

523
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 3: Now people are saying, well, if you like the Cardinals,

524
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 3: why don't you just wait and hope to get a seven.

525
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,880
Speaker 3: Because I told you guys on Tuesday show, this will

526
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 3: be one of the biggest teas teams. The Bills will

527
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 3: be in a lot of teasers, just like I said,

528
00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 3: Seattle and Cincinnati, Well, this is just they fit the profile, right,

529
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: So I'm happy with waiting seeing right, we want to

530
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 3: see the connection with with Kyler and Marvin Harris. So

531
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 3: you know, I got no issue sitting this one out,

532
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 3: but I'm with you. It's it's a game where I

533
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: didn't think we'd have it as one of our five,

534
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 3: and how as the days have gone along here, it's

535
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 3: just like, you know what, why don't we just say

536
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 3: it and wait and see? On that one?

537
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 2: Dude? You know it's Marvin Harrison, right.

538
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know the whole joke right now. You'd never

539
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: say the man's name. Why, Well, I can tell you why.

540
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 3: But there's a reason you never say that man's name

541
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 3: like Voldemort.

542
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: I don't know the joke. And now I know what.

543
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 3: I don't eve want to press Philly, you don't know.

544
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 2: I don't want to lie. I think I know where

545
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 2: this is going.

546
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:10,239
Speaker 1: Having done some stories on Marvin Harrison, I don't want

547
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 1: to give Matt Mitchell anything. He's got to cut out

548
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: Houston and Indy. This was our Simon says. It's now

549
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 1: at three at bet three six y five, so it's

550
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 1: ticked up.

551
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 2: This is public money. I think this is a game

552
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 2: that's going to go higher.

553
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: We are investing in something that we believe in, not

554
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,720
Speaker 1: something we've seen with Anthony Richardson, but that divisional dog

555
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 1: trend that I mentioned earlier in the show that is

556
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 1: in play here, the same one that the Panthers have

557
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: the advantage over the Saints the dogs between one and

558
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: five and a half.

559
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 2: That's a check.

560
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: Fading the short favorite on the road especially, that's a check.

561
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe wait until Sunday to say if

562
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: we can get a better number, but like obviously we're

563
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 1: going to go with the culture contest.

564
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind taking the two and a half.

565
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 3: But I think me and you joked last night about it,

566
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 3: right where you were saying, what's your hesitation here? I said,

567
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: the kids made seventeen starts since high school. Like Anthony Richardson,

568
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 3: he doesn't have the reps. That's the fear, and that's

569
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 3: why I understand why public the public is coming in

570
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 3: so heavy on Houston alsto. You mix in the fact

571
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 3: the Colts have won what one game and the Week

572
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 3: one in like ten years. I mean, they're one of

573
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 3: the worst teams historically in this Week one, and that's

574
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:21,959
Speaker 3: people playing the trends right. They're just back on their

575
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: trends there. What really signaled to me, Chad was his

576
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,160
Speaker 3: tweet I saw yesterday. Bookmakers say they have four times

577
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,959
Speaker 3: the amount of money right now on Houston. Then they

578
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 3: have colts that this will literally dictate this one game

579
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,640
Speaker 3: will dictate their entire Sunday compared to any other game.

580
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:40,320
Speaker 3: If you listen to the show long enough. This is

581
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: where I want to be. I want to be with

582
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 3: the books. Even if this doesn't doesn't hit. This is

583
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 3: a long term winner the book. Like we say all

584
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 3: the time, there's a reason all those hotels exist in

585
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 3: Atlantic City in Las Vegas, right the book's long term.

586
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 3: They're gonna win these ones. So to me, when I

587
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 3: hear bookmakers saying they have four times the amount of

588
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 3: money on Houston than they do on any other side,

589
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 3: oh my god, it feels so good. Like that's why

590
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 3: I'm so happy we got the three now. Even in

591
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,359
Speaker 3: our contest, if it's two and a half, I have

592
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 3: no hesitation.

593
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 1: Oh see, I was going to say to you in

594
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 1: the contest, do we feel strongly enough at two and

595
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: a half?

596
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 2: I do, okay, because like all of a sudden, well

597
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: this number is not layding on three. Well, I'm just saying, like, all.

598
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,479
Speaker 1: Of a sudden, it could be we're faced with an

599
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 1: option of Jags at three and a half or Colts

600
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: at two and a half.

601
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 3: Honestly, I would go Colts there.

602
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: Okay.

603
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 3: The closest one I am to being bullied and taken

604
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 3: out of is that Giants game we talked about just

605
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 3: because of respect that half for all these other professionals,

606
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 3: where it's like I get their hesitation with it, I'm

607
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 3: kind of digging my heels in on that one, where

608
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 3: this one it's not so much. I'm just playing the

609
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: numbers right like this This one is purely I feel

610
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 3: like this game should be one. Houston should be fair

611
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,719
Speaker 3: by one. Maybe I had to pick. The number has

612
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 3: just grown too much. There's just been too much going

613
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 3: on for this summer.

614
00:28:54,600 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 1: I have no problem taking the Vikings Giants game out

615
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 1: of our five and not having to sweat that on

616
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: Sunday night. Or you know, like we got so many

617
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: other games we like and this one we're getting so

618
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: many conflicting signals. I kind of want to skip Denver Seattle.

619
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna make our I don't think

620
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: it's gonna be.

621
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 3: And especially i've seen a lot of books already shifted

622
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 3: up to the six. For us, I was hoping this

623
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: would drop down to five and a half. Maybe we

624
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 3: would get lucky into professional money with coming on Denver.

625
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 3: They're the same view as us. It's a rookie bone

626
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 3: Knicks on the road against the twelfth man and what

627
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 3: we've perceived one of the better defensive minds of football,

628
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: so that that money is never gonna shift. This number

629
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: is what it is, right It's kind of stuck where

630
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 3: it's at. So I'm agreen swe I just can't be

631
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 3: this being our one favorite.

632
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: We put in Washington at Tampa Tampa three and a

633
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: half right now, this one, like all the trends are

634
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: sort of leaning in the direction we want them to.

635
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: And I've talked about the luck rankings earlier. The luck

636
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: rankings are in my head a little bit like I

637
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: know everything about rookie QBS and Jayden Daniels and sort

638
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: of the trends against betting that. But Baker is fourteen

639
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: and twenty six as a favorite, Todd Bowles is seven

640
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: and fourteen is a favorite.

641
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: Of three or more.

642
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 1: We have talked about the Panthers a lot because of

643
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: the luck rankings at the opposite end of that. One

644
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: of the luckier teams last year was the Bucks. We

645
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: are fading the Bucks. We like their season win total

646
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: under I know Nick Giffen has been saying two fans,

647
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: go find a Bucks to finish last in the NFC

648
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: South bet. I don't want to put this in the contest,

649
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: but I feel obligated to at least finish the conversation.

650
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have no read on this one, honestly. Okay,

651
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 3: my god, this is the game where I bet props.

652
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 3: I bet Mike Evans over receiving and props. Just because

653
00:30:57,560 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 3: we talked about bad second arys. Washington is another team

654
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 3: that has a home horrible secondary. So I'm looking forward

655
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 3: to just watching Jaden and Daniels. I didn't want to

656
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: put too much money this one because Chad's right, Like,

657
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 3: in my soul, I wanted to bet Baker, especially when

658
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 3: this touch three. This was at three almost all that

659
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 3: yesterday at a couple of books. That's as where I

660
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 3: wanted to be at. I wanted to take Baker at three.

661
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 3: Now this up to three and a half. Yeah, of course,

662
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 3: the better of me is like, why don't you just

663
00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: take the three and a half with Jayden Daniels like this.

664
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 3: This feels like a coin flip game. I just can't

665
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 3: do it. I can't pull that you're going. There's just

666
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 3: too many unknowns for me.

667
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:28,800
Speaker 2: Chad Good.

668
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 1: Now we're narrowing it down. If you are in the

669
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 1: production room, listen to me. Come to camera one because

670
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: guess what it is Time for the big.

671
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: Balls Better the Week.

672
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:47,959
Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. That's right, our big Balls bet

673
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: of the Week is presented by our newest sponsor, Tommy John. Listen,

674
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: you guys who listened to the first show. You know

675
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: how much I love Tommy John. I was trying to

676
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: think of a way before I came in this morning

677
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 1: how to describe how much I love Tommy John. And

678
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,239
Speaker 1: I start to think about like affordable luxury. These are

679
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: things that just make you feel good, that are completely affordable.

680
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:18,080
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681
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: You put it on you just you feel better. It

682
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 1: is the MVP of my underwear drawer. In Tommy John,

683
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: I can do everything, including betting. I feel more confident

684
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: as a better in my second skin underwear. Tommy John,

685
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: our producer, tells me a lot of listeners complained I

686
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: talked way too much about my underwear last episode. But

687
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: guess what, I don't care. If you love Simon and I.

688
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: If you love this show, you'll love Tommy John. Get

689
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,920
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690
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691
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 1: at Tommy John dot com slash favorites, which means Simon

692
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: Tommy John has just told us it's time for the

693
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: big Balls bet of the week.

694
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 2: We were gonna make it.

695
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: A different game, and then I just called an audible

696
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: because it feels like we are dug in on the

697
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 1: Lions and the wise guys like the Rams, Like we

698
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: say these about trends, right, we like these trends when

699
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: they're fifty eight percent, sixty percent, seventy one percent.

700
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 2: We're talking about divisional games.

701
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: But that also means that like five and a half

702
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: out of ten, four out of ten, you're gonna lose

703
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: that bet. Also, I feel like we're trying to thread

704
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: the needle with this Lions team here, and look like

705
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,239
Speaker 1: this this could go to four. So I think if

706
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: people want to get it, they got to get it now.

707
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: Because the juice is on three and a half minus

708
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: one twenty, but there's more money on the Lions. I

709
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: would have no problem putting in the contest. If we

710
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 1: are looking to put in a favorite. The Lions have

711
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: the best three year stretch against the spread since the

712
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: Patriots in that twenty sixteen to twenty eighteen range. Jared

713
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: Goff twenty five and nine against the spread indoors, Jared

714
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 1: Goff undefeated against the spread as a starter during his career.

715
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: Like we do have concerns about the Rams defense without

716
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, we love the Lions foundationally, offensive line, defensive line.

717
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:27,760
Speaker 2: I'm not afraid.

718
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is gonna be to buy far our chalky

719
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 3: is bad, maybe even of this season like this. This

720
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 3: doesn't get more chalky than this. I talked to two

721
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 3: bookmakers yesterday. I asked them, what's your guys viewing this game?

722
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 3: How the numbers look in It's about two to three

723
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 3: times the amount of money right now is on the

724
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 3: lines than it is on the Rams. And that's right, No,

725
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 3: because I view it as I'm not afraid we think

726
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 3: this n we're should be four to four and a half.

727
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 3: It's three and a half, and we have questions right

728
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,719
Speaker 3: now about the Rams. We have questions about the Rams

729
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 3: offensive line, We have questions what their identity is gonna

730
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 3: be without Aaron Donald and that young secondary. None of that,

731
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 3: none of that at all with this this Detroit team.

732
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: Maybe we do have some questions about the new pieces

733
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 3: they added to their secondary, but I just feel so

734
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 3: confident this offense and I think the argument will run

735
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 3: this ball down the Rams throat, Like that's where we're

736
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: gonna see the biggest difference of losing Aaron Donald what

737
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 3: he did in that middle, not just in pass rushing,

738
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: but eating up two to three blockers on rushing. Like

739
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: this guy was just an animal, and you know, not

740
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 3: the everyday person realizes that, but this guy was really

741
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 3: that important to this team. So you know, the Gibbs

742
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 3: David Montgomery two headed horse we think Detroit has in

743
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 3: that backfield that's gonna set up Laporta and al'mond Saint

744
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: Brown Like that, to me is the big difference here.

745
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 3: And we already talked about people know we love this

746
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 3: offensive line. Like the lines, I'd have to go back

747
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: and grade it, but I think they're either my second

748
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 3: or number one offensive line head into this season. It's

749
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 3: like this team is so complete. That's why we joked

750
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 3: like they should be the one seed in the NFC,

751
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 3: like it's all there for this.

752
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: It's just hard to say that about the line.

753
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 3: It's hard to say about the line here in Week

754
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 3: one at home. That doesn't worry in me at all.

755
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 3: So don't think where the chalk is. We do Chalky

756
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 3: picks like this. This is just line up with us.

757
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 2: Think like we're just saying that to new people.

758
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 1: Like we've asked people so far to bet on the Giants,

759
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:22,320
Speaker 1: the Panthers, the Colts. We're talking about Daniel Jones, Bryce Young,

760
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson, who you said has played seventeen games. We

761
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: don't have to defend ourselves from making a smart Chalky

762
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 1: pick that is the right pick. You might have to

763
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 1: defend yourself for saying, like for not being afraid of

764
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,320
Speaker 1: taking the lines, but being afraid to say, Marvin Harrison.

765
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 3: Like you're playing fire. You don't even know.

766
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: We'll see how it goes when we eventually do our

767
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: you know, live show.

768
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 3: That's what I'm saying. You're going to Philly.

769
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 2: We're going.

770
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 3: Don't think you know what you're.

771
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 1: Doing, right, We're going to Philly, all right? Last game

772
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 1: on the board. We want to talk about New York

773
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 1: Jet at San Francisco. Look like, seriously, right, Trent Williams

774
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: effect this line was at three and a half, Trent

775
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 1: Williams signs it goes up to four.

776
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 2: Now it's at four and a half. Yeah, Like that

777
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 2: is rare for an.

778
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: Offensive lineman to have that much of an impact on

779
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: a point spread. That's the only reason this thing is moving.

780
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: Reminders since the two thousand Super Bowl, the Super since

781
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: two thousand season, the Super Bowl losers ten and fourteen

782
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 1: straight up, five and nineteen against the spread when they're

783
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 1: favored by over a field goal, four to nine against

784
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: the spread. So like we like the Jets. We liked

785
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 1: him at three and a half, I like him at four.

786
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: I like him at four and a half.

787
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: Again, Jad, I hit you with that trend. That's the

788
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 3: big thing. But the biggest sticking point is for me

789
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:36,040
Speaker 3: and Chad, we feel like this Jets team coming in

790
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 3: here is just being undervalued. And that's a simple fact

791
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 3: of Aaron Rodgers has not played football in a long time,

792
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:47,280
Speaker 3: but when he has played, he's played really well. And again,

793
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 3: I know it's been two years, but this team mclee

794
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 3: all agree. This Jets team right here is probably better

795
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 3: than those Green Bay teams from back then. Like they

796
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 3: went out and they did improve this offensive line this offseason,

797
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 3: Like they did go out and get him a number

798
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 3: two receiver on Mike Williams, who is healthy for this game,

799
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: we perceive, but even if it's not, they've gone out

800
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 3: and got a rookie receiver. They went out and got

801
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 3: Lizard who I know people think that's a joke, but

802
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 3: Lazarre has a rhythm and a repertoire with Rogers, which

803
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 3: is a big deal of these kind of games. So

804
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 3: the Trent Williams moving this by a point makes total

805
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,600
Speaker 3: sense when he is the best left tackle in football,

806
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 3: so he should be moving this line like he did.

807
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:27,840
Speaker 3: But can we all agree, It's just it has not

808
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 3: felt right with this forty nine Ers team now things

809
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 3: that might have got corrected because they do have the

810
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 3: structure there right, They have a great front office. I mean,

811
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 3: people want to knock John Lynch for some of his

812
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 3: first round picks, doesn't really matter when he's nailing all

813
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 3: of his other late round picks. Like this guy for

814
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: all his bad you know, Trey Lance picks, He's got

815
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 3: Brock Purdy like this is a home run hit by him,

816
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 3: this guy, So I do want to give him his

817
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: flowers and Jed York for stepping up and paying these guys,

818
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: which was just bizarro world, not just getting Ayuk or

819
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 3: him in the building. But I think we need appalized

820
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 3: earlier in the season of Trent William's missing camp, i

821
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 3: Uk only being there for a week, Like, come on,

822
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 3: if there's gonna be a stumble for this forty nine

823
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 3: ers team in the season, it feels like it's gonna

824
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 3: year out of the gate, right like this is this

825
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 3: is kind of where it is. And you know, McCaffrey

826
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 3: didn't practice for a month. I know he is back now,

827
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: but there's just a lot to pick at where the Jets.

828
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 3: Oh my god, Aaron Rodgers went to Egypt and back

829
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 3: in May like that that's been the knock or Hassan Reddick,

830
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 3: a guy who's never being played on their team, never

831
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: showed up the camp. It doesn't matter.

832
00:39:31,160 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: He hasn't played on the team and on a defensive

833
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: line that is one of the best defensive lines in

834
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 1: football already.

835
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and obviously, yes, it'd be much better if he

836
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 3: was there. And they do have a depth issue on

837
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 3: that defensive line, but maybe you know just as good

838
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 3: linebacking corps. I mean, just because Navar Bowman is not

839
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 3: who he was because he's coming back off an injury.

840
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 3: It's like, there is a lot to love with this

841
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,919
Speaker 3: Jets team. So if we're just going matchup scheme wise,

842
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 3: they remind me a lot of what that Ravens team

843
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 3: was last year that gave so much trouble to this

844
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:02,879
Speaker 3: forty nine ers offense. And that's really what I'm banking

845
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 3: on here. So another team, Chad that we debated about

846
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 3: putting our money line around Robin because we do love

847
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 3: the money line here. How do you not love the

848
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 3: four and a half right? This game feels like it

849
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 3: will come down to a field goal or a four

850
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,400
Speaker 3: point finish, So love it that it's back up at

851
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 3: the four and a half. I know there's a couple

852
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 3: of books out there at three and a half. I

853
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 3: expect once one the public money keeps coming and this

854
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 3: will keep going up to four and a half in

855
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 3: most books.

856
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:31,479
Speaker 1: You mentioned our underdog money line parlay. We did ask

857
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: our sponsor Bet three six five to give us an

858
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 1: underdog money line parlay and odds boost nice this season

859
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: and guess what, Because they love us and they love you,

860
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: they said yes. So each week we will give out

861
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: a two team money line dog parlay. Bet three six

862
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 1: five will have that highlighted on their site all weekend

863
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: with boosted odds. You know where you can get beat

864
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 1: three six five the states where you're eligible twice a show,

865
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: every show.

866
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 3: My Dog Blucks Your Dogs, Your Dog Blucks mot.

867
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: Dog Your week one boosted underdog parlay that will be

868
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: highlighted at bet three sixty five. Get Ready Carolina and

869
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 1: Bryce Young and the Panthers beating the Saints Anthony Richardson

870
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 1: Shane Steich in Indianapolis, Colts beating the Texans in Indianapolis.

871
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 1: The boosts will be featured on bet three six fives soon.

872
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: The more listeners who bet these boosts, by the way,

873
00:41:40,200 --> 00:41:43,719
Speaker 1: the more picks we can get boosted. Both games are

874
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: also eligible for Bet three six five's early payout promo.

875
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite things they did last season.

876
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: Your moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they

877
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 1: take a seventeen point lead, even if they go on

878
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:57,120
Speaker 1: to blow the game. So this matters whether you're betting

879
00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: an underdog or a favorite doesn't matter that team goes

880
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,919
Speaker 1: up by say seventeen points, you win the bet.

881
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,480
Speaker 2: Definitely bet it at Bet three six five. I simon

882
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 2: Survivors the Survivor pool pick of the week.

883
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: Seattle or Bengals. That's sort of where I'm landing. But

884
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:21,880
Speaker 1: you got any thoughts.

885
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 3: If you're in two survivor pools, split them up. Never

886
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 3: put all your eggs in one basket. Cincinnati is basically

887
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 3: the one everyone's gonna bank on to lose because they

888
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: figure everyone Joe Public's gonna pick them. But it's also

889
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 3: like this is a this is a nice time to

890
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 3: use Cincinnati, right the historically people are gonna keep pointing to, well,

891
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 3: they've struggled in Week one. Didn't we already talk about that, Chad.

892
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 3: It's like Joe Burrow's never had an offseason, right. He

893
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: never every camp He's always either injured or he's missing

894
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 3: days in camp. This year, he never missed a day

895
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 3: in camp. He was there all all camp. The hesitation

896
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: with Chase I understand if this was an incredibly tough matchup.

897
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 3: So New England Patriots one of the worst teams we

898
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 3: perceive in all of football, with.

899
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 2: You know, basically playing a backup quarterback.

900
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 3: Yes, with a with an offensive line that we view

901
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: as one of the more suspect offensive lines in all football.

902
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 3: So I think we will have eventually have a time

903
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: where we'll start backing New England in these type of spots,

904
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 3: and we might even put them on our moneylane around Robin. Uh,

905
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:25,160
Speaker 3: this is not that spot right. So for me, if

906
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 3: you want to go really safe, I trust Cincinnati. If

907
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 3: you want to be a little different and use a

908
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 3: team that we don't know when else, we're going to

909
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 3: be able to use them just because their division is

910
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 3: so hard. I like Seattle. Like Seattle we already talked about.

911
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:40,279
Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect right now for the

912
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 3: NFC West. I don't think the Cardinals will be all walkover,

913
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 3: which would be an easy pickt for Seattle and Survivor.

914
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 3: So yeah, for our because we have to pick one

915
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 3: in our for our show. Do you just want to

916
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 3: go SINCEI? Or where do you want to go there?

917
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 3: Let's goin, let's go SINCEY. Yeah. So we're going the

918
00:43:57,239 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 3: most public pick for Survivor Week.

919
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 1: One, and we're making a huge public bet on the Lions,

920
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 1: which we are sure we'll get in our final five,

921
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: which I'll review at the end of the show.

922
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:06,239
Speaker 2: Signed.

923
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: We got a couple more segments. Simon's biggest bets right now?

924
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: Are you going to place a bet or what Giants?

925
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:14,480
Speaker 3: The Giants are definitely up there. I would say the

926
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 3: Colts and the Jets. I've just put the most in again.

927
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 3: The Jets i'd been betting for the last month when

928
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 3: I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October.

929
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 3: Him coming back and his reasonings were coming back. They're

930
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 3: very human, right. He saw his teammate almost lose his

931
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: life and it kind of put perspective for him and

932
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 3: he was just like, what am I doing here? Why

933
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 3: am I staying home over a couple of million where

934
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 3: I need to be with my guys. So getting him

935
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 3: back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view

936
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 3: of it. It's like I betted at four and a half.

937
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 3: Now it's back up the four and a half. I

938
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 3: still love it at four and a half. Chad's right though,

939
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: like I really love the Giants the Panthers, right, I

940
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: started betting them and when they're at six, take me

941
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 3: a five and a half. I've taken them a four

942
00:44:56,080 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: and a half. If you're still late to the port

943
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 3: ay and there's a four out there, I don't mind

944
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 3: taking the four as well. So right now, those are

945
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 3: definitely my three biggest bets. I suspect come Sunday, I

946
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 3: probably will have a lot more on This line's team

947
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 3: is the weekly on along. I've just really loved them

948
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 3: and just how it lays out for their matchup against

949
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:20,279
Speaker 3: this Rams team. So right now, those are definitely my

950
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 3: three biggest bets.

951
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 1: All right, So now we got to new Scoot Roulette

952
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: for those who are new to the show, those.

953
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 2: Who we're bringing it back, We're bringing it back.

954
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, who is a guy that I wrote about

955
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,759
Speaker 1: in my best selling book called The Odds, about guys

956
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: who were betting on sports for a living. He was

957
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 1: the bookmaker at the start of the Hotel. He was

958
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 1: a longtime co host of this podcast with me when

959
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 1: I started it at ESPN, and then brought it over

960
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: when we launched Action. He and I used to play

961
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: a game every week on to one on one head

962
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 1: to head matchup. We called it scoot Roulette. Simon and

963
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: I have carried on that tradition Scoot Roulette.

964
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 2: Simon.

965
00:45:57,400 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: I will let you go first, give me the pick

966
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 1: you want to make. I feel like I know exactly

967
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 1: what it should be.

968
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 3: You don't. I'm gonna shock people just because we didn't

969
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 3: talk about this game and it's totally off board and

970
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 3: Chad will never see it coming. I'm gonna go with

971
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,280
Speaker 3: the homerk pick and take the Eagles at minus two Wow.

972
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:16,799
Speaker 3: In the NFL International Series, favorites are thirty three, ten

973
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 3: and one straight up, twenty nine and fifteen sixty six

974
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 3: percent against the spread in international games. So give me

975
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 3: them Birds. Now that it's under three. I love I

976
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 3: love Green bead three. Now that I'm getting two to

977
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 3: two and a half with this Eagles team, I think

978
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 3: this will this will come down to a field goal.

979
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 3: I'll take the Eagles here.

980
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 1: Chad Millman, who proudly hails from Chicago here we Go,

981
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 1: loves the city like no other, even though he hasn't

982
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: lived there in thirty something years.

983
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 3: Are you gonna tell us how there's no place like

984
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: Chicago in the summer.

985
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: It's greatest city in the world. L this summer.

986
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 1: I was just there about a month ago. It's the

987
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: freaking best. I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus five.

988
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 2: Oh, God, there we go.

989
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. It's time to bring in our buddy, Evan

990
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: before we get out of here. He is our director

991
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: of research. He's going to give us the final word

992
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 1: on a couple of things that we need to know.

993
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 1: Evan the last word with Evan Abrams.

994
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 2: We're finished talking.

995
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: What's up, fellas?

996
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,080
Speaker 4: I got two things for you today and I'll start

997
00:47:22,120 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 4: with this only at the Action Network. Could we have

998
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 4: a game with this month's contention and it be Giants

999
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 4: and Vikings this weekend with all the great games we have.

1000
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:32,919
Speaker 4: But if you like the Giants, you probably do because

1001
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 4: you have faith in Brian Dables. So Dable is sixty

1002
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 4: three percent against the spread and his coaching career with

1003
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 4: the Giants that is highest among all head coaches over

1004
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 4: the last twenty years with a minimum of ten games coach.

1005
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 4: And the greatest part about it, Dabel has had four

1006
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 4: different starting quarterbacks. All four are above five hundred against

1007
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 4: the spread with the team. Listen to this murderer's row,

1008
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 4: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Danny DeVito, the trash is a

1009
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 4: gold mine, and Davis Webb. Brian Dable does an incredible

1010
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 4: job with whatever he has so in this situation getting

1011
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 4: the point and a half, I can understand it.

1012
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:07,879
Speaker 3: I'll give you one more on Dable.

1013
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 4: So the Giants actually opened as a favorite and looks

1014
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 4: like they're going to close as the underdog. That's already

1015
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 4: happened to Dable six times in New York. He's covered

1016
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 4: five of those six, so he kind of likes the number.

1017
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 4: Maybe they lose by one and you get the hook here.

1018
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 4: So I knew you guys liked the Giants. I had

1019
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 4: to toss in there.

1020
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, you don't have to worry about that. He keeps

1021
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 3: his composure pretty simple.

1022
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 4: Go out there and rip that sound bitch, and then

1023
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:34,399
Speaker 4: here's a great one. I found this literally last night.

1024
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 4: I messaged Matt Mitchell. I tell him I can't believe

1025
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,720
Speaker 4: this is true. It's just really fun. So Derek Carr

1026
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 4: has won fifty seven percent of his game straight up

1027
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 4: as a favorite. Nothing crazy there in his career, about

1028
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 4: what you'd expect when he plays as a favorite indoors

1029
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 4: perfect conditions. He's actually only nine and thirteen straight up.

1030
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 4: That's four games under five hundred in the last twenty years.

1031
00:48:59,080 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 4: Only one quarterback is four plus games under five hundred

1032
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 4: as an indoor favorite. That is Derek's brother, David Carr,

1033
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,760
Speaker 4: who is zero and four straight up in that spot.

1034
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 4: You come home, brother, So the Cars nine and seventeen

1035
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 4: straight up. I know everyone's on Carolina. I just couldn't

1036
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 4: believe it when I saw David's name, But the spot's there.

1037
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 2: Everything he's telling us is giving me so much confidence.

1038
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 3: Oh, you're the best at it. I appreciate that.

1039
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:36,080
Speaker 1: It's almost like I'm almost buoyed. I'm gonna walk out

1040
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 1: of here on air. Thank you, Evan Simon. I feel

1041
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 1: like we got I see seven games right now that

1042
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 1: we've whittled it down that we want to choose from

1043
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 1: the games that are still on my list. Steelers three

1044
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 1: and a half, Jags three and a half, Giants one

1045
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,720
Speaker 1: and a half, Panthers plus four Colts.

1046
00:49:58,760 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 2: If we can get to three and.

1047
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 1: A half, probably two and a half, Lions three and

1048
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 1: a half, Jets four and a half. So yeah, either

1049
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 1: either we're getting rid of the Steelers and Jazz with

1050
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: a late entrance.

1051
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 3: I definitely see the Steelers not making it right. I

1052
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 3: just don't think we'll ever get that number we want,

1053
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 3: but that Jag one is tough, Like I want to

1054
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:16,680
Speaker 3: get that in.

1055
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, after you hear from our guy Evan on

1056
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 2: the Giants.

1057
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 3: You gotta to probably that on my dead hands, Like

1058
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 3: I'm so in on this Giants team. He's just he's

1059
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 3: a great coach and people are just under rating them.

1060
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's ridiculous how much hate this team's goetting.

1061
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: All right, So here's how this is going to go.

1062
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 1: For people who follow along and are playing in the contest.

1063
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 1: Simon and I are going to put our picks in

1064
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 1: the contest after the show preliminarily, and then we will

1065
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 1: judge it again on Sunday after we do Convince Me

1066
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,880
Speaker 1: our live show eleven am watching on Action Network YouTube.

1067
00:50:45,239 --> 00:50:48,040
Speaker 1: Subscribe like to what you're watching now, follow the show,

1068
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:49,800
Speaker 1: Convince Me and this and all of our shows in

1069
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:52,839
Speaker 1: the Action app. After we do Convince Me on Sunday morning,

1070
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: Simon and I will put our picks into the app

1071
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: the Phase five feed. Follow that handle in the app

1072
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:00,800
Speaker 1: and you'll see what we areultimately end up with. But

1073
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 1: we're probably going to put five in now just to

1074
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:06,839
Speaker 1: lock in some numbers and see how things change. As

1075
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet three

1076
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 1: sixty five. This just in new Bet three sixty five

1077
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: customers now get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when

1078
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 1: you bet five bucks. Sign up using promo code Favorites,

1079
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Speaker 2: Love You.

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