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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: That's right, it's a little bit different, a little bit different.

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Speaker 1: This time we are presented by our brand new presenting sponsors,

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Speaker 1: our friends at BET three sixty five. We're super cited

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Speaker 1: about that. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Michael Padre a man, I miss

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Speaker 1: so much while I was out last week Professional Better

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Eto, So I'm in.

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Speaker 2: Hello, hotcha. I still can't believe we still have what

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Speaker 2: four or five months till week one this offseason. Buddy

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Speaker 2: is Dragon right now?

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Speaker 1: Listen it is Dragon a little bit. But we do

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Speaker 1: have like the final stages of full on drama heading

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Speaker 1: into the Draft, which is a week and a half away.

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Speaker 1: We got a full week of podcasts devoted to the draft.

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Speaker 1: You and I You are brilliant when it comes to

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Speaker 1: the Draft. I have a ton of opinions about the Draft.

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Speaker 1: Our guest today is a draft expert, Nick Garrisco, better

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Speaker 1: known as Fantasy log Guy. Listeners can find his stuff

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Speaker 1: at fantasylog guy dot com. You may be asking yourself,

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Speaker 1: why are we having a guy who's known as fantasylog

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Speaker 1: Guy on the podcast to talk about a mock draft.

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Speaker 1: But Nick is a longtime NFL mock draft expert. His

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Speaker 1: final NFL mock drafts have finished within the top ten,

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Speaker 1: the top six, most accurate in three the past four years,

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Speaker 1: is judged by Mock Draft Database. We're going to bring

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Speaker 1: Nick on in a sec. He's got a fascinating story.

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Speaker 1: We talked about it before he came on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: He's going to explain to us how he ended up

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Speaker 1: doing this and where he's doing this podcast from. Before

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Speaker 1: we get to Nick. All Right, you guys know, you

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Speaker 1: guys know how much I love game time. Right, I've

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Speaker 1: talked about it so much on this podcast. Not only

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Speaker 1: do I love it, true story, I was out last week.

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Speaker 1: I went to the Yankees game Friday night, Yankee Stadium.

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Speaker 1: I used game time to buy my tickets. I swear

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Speaker 1: Game Time Today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. And

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Speaker 1: by the way, as a reminder, the Favorites podcast is

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Speaker 1: proudly presented by BET three six five, the world's favorite

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Speaker 1: got a gambling problem, call or text one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler Simon, We freaking love the draft. Should we bring

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Speaker 1: Nick in?

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Speaker 2: Let's do it?

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Speaker 3: Nick? Welcome man, Thank you so much. This is honestly

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Speaker 3: an honor to be on the show today. I really

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Speaker 3: appreciate you having me.

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Speaker 1: Well, you should be honored. So let me tell you something,

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Speaker 1: let me ask you something. Actually, i feel like I'm

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Speaker 1: still getting my wits about me being back on the

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Speaker 1: podcast off of vacation. I'm flipping words. I'm almost like

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Speaker 1: I'm a puppy. I'm a little too excited about about

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. I'm too excited that we're, you know,

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Speaker 1: flying on our own right now. Simon. It's it's making

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Speaker 1: me a little anxious. But people can't see this yet,

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Speaker 1: but they will see the video. Nick is wearing a tie.

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Speaker 1: He looks great. Tell people, Nick, right now, where you

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Speaker 1: are broadcasting from.

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Speaker 3: I'm broadcasting from a classroom at Saint Paul's School in Covington, Louisiana.

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Speaker 3: It is a freshman classroom.

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Speaker 1: And what are you teaching there?

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Speaker 3: I'm teaching English one in journalism, and I'm teaching law

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Speaker 3: next year.

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Law Guy. Explain to people why a English teacher

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Speaker 1: in louis on this podcast talking about the draft, calling

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Speaker 1: himself Fantasy La Guy.

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Speaker 3: Well, I am an attorney in Louisiana and I graduated

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Speaker 3: from Tulane law school. I think one of those diplomas

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Speaker 3: there in the back is tu Lane Law School. I

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Speaker 3: graduated undergrad at LSU, so I'm pretty local to Louisiana

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Speaker 3: and I was an attorney for about five or six

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Speaker 3: years before I decided to transition into teaching. I wasn't

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Speaker 3: getting a lot of job fulfillment and personal satisfaction from

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Speaker 3: being a lawyer, and I thought that I could get

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Speaker 3: that being a teacher, and so far.

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Speaker 2: So good.

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Speaker 3: I pretty much knew the moment that I stepped into

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Speaker 3: the classroom and started instruction, I pretty much knew that

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Speaker 3: this was kind of my calling. I was going to

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Speaker 3: do it for the rest of my life. As far

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Speaker 3: as as far as the brand name goes, yeah, I guess.

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Speaker 3: I guess now it's you know, not as applicable being

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Speaker 3: Fantasy law Guy, But that was just kind of something

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Speaker 3: I branded myself with, and it's fantasylow Guide dot com

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Speaker 3: is where you can find information. I really I'm a huge,

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Speaker 3: huge nerd about fantasy football drafts and about the NFL draft,

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Speaker 3: particularly mocking the NFL Draft Round one, and it's something

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Speaker 3: I've been doing every August and every April. And so

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Speaker 3: I started tracking it about a decade ago on an

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Speaker 3: Excel sheet, started looking at comparing it to other mock drafts,

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Speaker 3: seeing if it was seeing if I really could stand

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Speaker 3: with the experts who actually do this for a living,

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Speaker 3: which I do not. I don't get paid for this.

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Speaker 3: But over time I've started submitting my mock drafts to

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Speaker 3: different websites like mock draft database dot com, and these

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Speaker 3: websites have kind of really just been getting popular in

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Speaker 3: the last couple of years. They're kind of taking off.

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Speaker 3: There's different ones other than the Huggle Report now. I

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Speaker 3: think Fantasy Pros does one.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: I think mock draft Database is the one that I

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Speaker 3: know and love, and they've been tracking me for about

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Speaker 3: four or five years now, and the results obviously have

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Speaker 3: been pretty promising. So I'm just going to continue to

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Speaker 3: do it. It's something I love doing, and I spend

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Speaker 3: any available second in March and April I can on

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Speaker 3: trying to predict where players are going to go, gathering

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Speaker 3: all types of pieces of intel information, everything possible, just

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Speaker 3: to try to make those predictions.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Well, look it's been working out, like we said,

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Speaker 1: incredibly accurate according to the third party rankings. I admire

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Speaker 1: the fact you're a teacher as the father of a

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Speaker 1: sixteen year old sophomore in high school boy who just

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Speaker 1: spent spring break with him and his buddies. These guys

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Speaker 1: can take disengagement and disinterest and quietude to an art form. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: I wish you all the luck in the world teaching

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Speaker 1: them English.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate that. Yeah, apathy is the biggest issue uh

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Speaker 3: here as well. I always want the students to apply

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Speaker 3: themselves and try as hard as they possibly can. But

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Speaker 3: but but yeah, I'm ready to talk NFL draft. Appreciate

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Speaker 3: all the words.

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Speaker 1: So is Simon Simon right now the biggest the biggest

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Speaker 1: conversation in the draft, Bryce Young or CJ. Stroud? Give

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Speaker 1: me your take. We talked about this on our daily show,

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Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily.

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Speaker 3: Give me your.

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Speaker 1: Take on what's happening at the top of the draft

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Speaker 1: board right now with those two players.

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Speaker 2: Well, chat, it looks like I'm about the lose six

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Speaker 2: figures by the looks of it. Looks like Bryce Young

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Speaker 2: is the guy. I've talked to a lot of people,

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Speaker 2: a lot of really smart pros. They're just I think

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Speaker 2: they're not not that just following along with what's going on.

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Speaker 2: But two weeks ago, Mortensen, who works for you Span

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Speaker 2: put out a mock draft where he had Bryce Sean

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Speaker 2: going one to Carolina and say, we had heard a

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Speaker 2: couple of people say that stuff. This was the first

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Speaker 2: really big name on a big platform like ESPAM putting

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Speaker 2: that out there. And what do we see the next morning?

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Speaker 2: Bryce she Young was I think minus one twenty five

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Speaker 2: and then CJ was plus say one fifty to be

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Speaker 2: their first pick. Now, fast forward two weeks later, Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young Chad is minus one thousand to be the first

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Speaker 2: pick overall, and CJ isn't even favorite anymore to be

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Speaker 2: the second pick. I mean, we just saw Will Levis

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Speaker 2: and another book just moved him to be the favorite

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Speaker 2: to be the second pick. It's madness. So we talk

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Speaker 2: all the time, Chad.

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Speaker 3: This is.

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Speaker 2: There's a reason books don't take big money on the draft. Right,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna they're gonna take a position where they don't

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Speaker 2: want to get hurt by the draft. And we've seen it. Hell,

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Speaker 2: you've seen it. Have we switched sponsors here, there's our

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Speaker 2: old sponsor used to have I want to say two

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Speaker 2: hundred draft props right, I would say even three weeks

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Speaker 2: before the draft, they two hundred draft props. Those days

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Speaker 2: are gone. I mean, if you're lucky, there's maybe two

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Speaker 2: or three books now that have a ride of like

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Speaker 2: a wide range of different draft props. Things have just changed.

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Speaker 2: So right now the way that you know most people

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Speaker 2: are mocking it is Bryce Shung will be the number

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Speaker 2: one pick. I mean if he's minus a thousand. The

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Speaker 2: books are clearly taking a stand right now. And this

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Speaker 2: is all based off once again, people in media who

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Speaker 2: we can say what we want. Their job is to

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Speaker 2: get viewership. Like in the end, at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day, Adam Schefter's job isn't need to be right

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Speaker 2: about the draft right. You can go through his phrasing,

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Speaker 2: how he words things. He'll never take a complete stand,

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Speaker 2: he goes. I'm hearing sources say he'll never say this

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Speaker 2: is definitely going to happen. So I love it, Like

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Speaker 2: to me, this is what I live for chat the drama,

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Speaker 2: And we already talked about earlier today. This could be

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest poker moves of the off season.

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Speaker 2: If Carolina, if their guy is CJ, but they know

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Speaker 2: Houston wants Bryce Young, why wouldn't the GM Why went

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Speaker 2: the owner? Why want the head coach said, well, we

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Speaker 2: like Bryce Young. We're gonna take Bryce Young, we have

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Speaker 2: him his highest greatd player, and try to get Houston

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Speaker 2: a trade up to that number one pick. So the

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Speaker 2: drama is crazy. Right now. We've seen a guy I love,

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Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson go from being the third best odds of

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Speaker 2: being the first pick overall to now this guy might

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Speaker 2: not even be a top ten pick anymore. And we're

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Speaker 2: seeing a guy like Will Levis, who you know, most

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Speaker 2: people thought maybe he'd go to the Colts at the

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Speaker 2: fourth pick. Now he might be the second pick. Chat.

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Speaker 2: So see me as someone that likes to fade the

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Speaker 2: public and bet against the normal betters. I'm either gonna

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Speaker 2: win a ton of money betting some crazy odds and

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Speaker 2: crazy quarterbacks, or I'm gonna lose a ton of money

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Speaker 2: because this draft will be born as hell and schefters

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Speaker 2: dead on that say, oh it is Bryce Young, and

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Speaker 2: then Houston truly is an interest in any other quarterback.

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Speaker 2: They just wonder Bryce maybe they will take a d

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Speaker 2: end or a d tackle. I mean, who really knows.

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Speaker 2: So I love that we're having on guys talking to

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Speaker 2: draft year, because to me, we already talked about chat

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Speaker 2: This feels like the Baker the Sam Donald, the Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen draft. We have three quarterbacks, all good, all have big,

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Speaker 2: big red flags. Who the hell knows is really good

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Speaker 2: to be number one pick? I mean, Sam Darnald, no joke.

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Speaker 2: People forget this. He was minus seven hundred the day

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Speaker 2: before the draft. You woke up the next morning Baker

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Speaker 2: Mayfield minus two hundred. That happened literally in a day

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Speaker 2: on Wednesday, Thursday before the draft. So to me, it

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Speaker 2: feels like Bryce Young's the pick. Everyone's saying it is.

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Speaker 2: We've heard the owner of Carolina say that's what we wants.

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Speaker 2: Did we really know?

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Speaker 3: No?

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Speaker 2: Because no guys coming out and putting their foot down

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Speaker 2: sand it really is. So you know, Nick here, he's

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Speaker 2: gonna have a way clear view on this, and I

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Speaker 2: will I would love to hear his view on what

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Speaker 2: this top ten will be. Obviously I'll go through his

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Speaker 2: picks here. But you sit here right now, Nick, do

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Speaker 2: you think it is Bryce Young definitely going to be

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Speaker 2: the number one pick.

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Speaker 3: I do think that it's going to be Bryce Young.

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Speaker 3: But I wouldn't have thought that even a couple of

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Speaker 3: days ago, especially a week ago. I like you thought

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Speaker 3: that the tea leaves were pointing to C. D. Shroud

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Speaker 3: being the selection at number one. There were videos that

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Speaker 3: were done by C. D. Shroud on underdog dot com.

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Speaker 3: I mean sorry by the offensive coordinator for Carolina who

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Speaker 3: who pointed to Stroud as his favorite quarterback in the

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Speaker 3: draft that was done on underdog dot Com. A lot

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Speaker 3: of people were looking at the height similarities between Frank

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Speaker 3: Wright and his quarterbacks. The only thing that was really

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Speaker 3: clear was that Carolina was going to take a quarterback

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Speaker 3: at pick one when they made this move, But the

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Speaker 3: books really jumped on C. J. Stroud immediately. However, while

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Speaker 3: I do agree that there is a reason for Carolina

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Speaker 3: to take advantage of basically the draft's worst kept secret,

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Speaker 3: which is that Houston loves Bryce Young, I do agree

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Speaker 3: that this could be the world's greatest smoke screen, and

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Speaker 3: they have every incentive to do it. And I also

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Speaker 3: find it very suspicious that this leak wasn't just a

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Speaker 3: Chris Mortenson like every media puntent local and national, was

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, within a span of two days,

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, Hey, they're definitely they're taking Bryce Young.

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Speaker 3: Bryce Young's the guy. The leak seems a little loud.

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Speaker 3: In my opinion, it's kind of sketchy. But like you said,

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Speaker 3: minus a thousand is almost a certainty, so I'm really starting.

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Speaker 3: In fact, I just changed. I just made that finals.

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Speaker 3: I was holding out hope like you were, that I

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Speaker 3: was going to be stroud. I think it was easier

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Speaker 3: for mocking purposes. But I just recently pulled the plug

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Speaker 3: and changed surprice Young at number one, probably about forty

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Speaker 3: eight hours ago. I would say, and look, this is

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Speaker 3: why it's an evolving document, and this is why or

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Speaker 3: the mock drafting is and yeah, this could be a

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield situation. It could be like I think in

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Speaker 3: the NBA draft there was controversy at number one and

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Speaker 3: paula Bench era. It wasn't it wasn't figured out until

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Speaker 3: I don't know, the night before, maybe the morning of.

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Speaker 3: So this has happened, especially as sports betting the drafts

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Speaker 3: have become more popularized about the States, and especially here

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Speaker 3: in Louisiana, which had just became legal. Last year was

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Speaker 3: the first draft where we were allowed to bet on

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Speaker 3: the draft. However, right now I'm assuming that the draft

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Speaker 3: starts at two, and I'm mocking accordingly. But to your point, Simon,

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to be shocked despite the number the

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Speaker 3: minus you know a thousand, that Bryce Young is going

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Speaker 3: to be the be the betting odds for the first pick.

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to be totally stunned. If it is CJ. Stroud,

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Speaker 3: I'd be surprised, but I don't think we should rule

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Speaker 3: it out to this point, especially because I believe CJ.

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Speaker 3: Stroud has a visit with Carolina coming up this week,

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Speaker 3: and I bet you you know, if it's in the

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Speaker 3: NFL's best interest, I bet you we hear some stuff like,

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Speaker 3: oh well, c J. Straud is giving them something to

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Speaker 3: think about now, and I can just kind of see

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Speaker 3: that playing out this week. But we'll see as of Young,

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Speaker 3: as of Young. As of now, I have Bryce Young

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Speaker 3: mocked one, but again, I just changed it that in

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Speaker 3: the last forty eight hours.

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Speaker 1: How often, Nick, will you change your mock.

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Speaker 3: Draft every day? Not to cut you off, but there's

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Speaker 3: something I'm really passionate about. I think that a lot

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Speaker 3: of websites do kind of a disservice, or a lot

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Speaker 3: of experts kind of do a disservice by only putting

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Speaker 3: out like one mock every you know, two weeks or

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Speaker 3: whatever it is. Really I am. I am grinding every

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Speaker 3: day on this so every bit of information, like the

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Speaker 3: Simon knows this better than anyone. The draft market is

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Speaker 3: extremely fragile. Like one little report by anyone, not even

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Speaker 3: a credential media MEMBERI or somebody who just has a

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Speaker 3: lot of followers can put out there, oh I've heard this,

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Speaker 3: and they will take down the bet or they will

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Speaker 3: shift the odds dramatically. I mean Vegas Refund, for example,

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Speaker 3: posted something about Joey Porter's over last night and I

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Speaker 3: think Caesars took it down within minutes. I mean, so

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Speaker 3: people are having a massive influence, not even just reporters

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Speaker 3: and like schefters of the world, but other people. It's

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Speaker 3: an extremely fragile market, and that the point is that

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Speaker 3: different data points in different facts, different connections, all of

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Speaker 3: the puzzle pieces being overturned, are are leading to certain

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Speaker 3: answers here or leading to better chances to get these

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Speaker 3: answers and to project them or correctly identify which teams

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Speaker 3: are interested in which players. Some of it's fake, some

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Speaker 3: of it's real. But my point is I'm grinding on

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Speaker 3: this stuff every single day. I mean, it is not

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Speaker 3: uncommon it's actually very common. Like last night, I was

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Speaker 3: looking at the arm length of Bengals defensive linemen that

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Speaker 3: they've drafted in the last couple of rounds to see

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Speaker 3: if it disqualified a guy like Elijah Cansy from being

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Speaker 3: taken at picked twenty nine. So I picked twenty eight.

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Speaker 2: Excuse me?

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Speaker 3: So yeah, this stuff. People are figuring out information, they're

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Speaker 3: figuring out connections, and that is having an influence on

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Speaker 3: the odds and all. This is to say that I'm

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Speaker 3: updating my mock regularly, probably several times a day, especially now,

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Speaker 3: like every day until the MOTT until I post eventually

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Speaker 3: my final mark, which will be you know, probably whenever

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Speaker 3: mock draft database requires me to submit, which will be

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Speaker 3: probably be like I don't know, I think it was

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Speaker 3: last year, was like three or four hours before the draft.

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Speaker 1: So Nick mentioned Vegas Refund also known as Luke Swayne,

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Speaker 1: who is a member of the Action Network team. He

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Speaker 1: was with us all season long on Action Ireland. He

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Speaker 1: was with me and Simon on the Favorites pod talking

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Speaker 1: about the draft. He is a mover and an influencer

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Speaker 1: when it comes to draft markets, and they've been doing

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Speaker 1: an Action Draft podcast on the Action Network podcast Network

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Speaker 1: Nick will be joining Luke on Monday on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network Pod for our final Action Network NFL mock Draft episode. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you and I have been through this before. We went

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Speaker 1: through it with the Trey Lance and Mac Jones stuff,

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Speaker 1: and you came out ahead on that. It was a big,

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Speaker 1: big win for you, and you just mentioned you could

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Speaker 1: be down significantly. Are you laying off? Are you hedging?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 1: How are you? How are you managing your outlay? When

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Speaker 1: rumors like this are swirling?

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm just gonna take it on the chin.

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Speaker 2: It was just a bad read by me. I just

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Speaker 2: the Bryce Shining thing will never make sense to me.

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Speaker 2: If Bryce Shrong ran a four three forty, I would

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Speaker 2: have been like, Okay, this kid makes sense to be

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Speaker 2: the number one pick. But he's not like Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 2: Kyler Murray is I mean, Kyler Murray is twenty three

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Speaker 2: pounds heavier than this kid was Andy ran a sub

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Speaker 2: four four forty. It's like, Ray Young is not that

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Speaker 2: kind of athlete. The kid is just arguably when the

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Speaker 2: smartest football players ever, And like, I get it, that's

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Speaker 2: a huge strength. But I just never saw a team again.

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Speaker 2: It's such a big deal. I can't stress it enough.

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Speaker 2: It's we talk all the time chat. There's what ten

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Speaker 2: of these guys in the league. It's just it's really

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Speaker 2: hard to find a starter in the league. It's really

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Speaker 2: hard to find a Jalen Hurts. It's not that hard

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Speaker 2: to find Ryan Tannehill. Like that Tannehills happened all the time.

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Speaker 2: Any of these guys could be another Ryan Tannell, the

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Speaker 2: guy that, yeah, he's good, he can win, he can

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Speaker 2: make some plays when he has the right players around him,

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Speaker 2: but he's he that superstar level player. And I just

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Speaker 2: never ever saw that with Bryce Young here, Like I

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Speaker 2: get it where these people are coming from. This kid's

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Speaker 2: this kid's ceiling is incredible. But to me, that was

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Speaker 2: a bad read. Buy in me, and then I let

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Speaker 2: the books dictate it too much. Like like we were

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Speaker 2: just talking about Elier. When CJ became minus one ninety

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Speaker 2: or to minus two hundred, I was like, Okay, this

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Speaker 2: is the move. This makes sense now, like this number

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Speaker 2: will keep going up, this is who they're gonna want.

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Speaker 2: But that, once again, that was based off of nothing.

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Speaker 2: That was just my own opinion what I'm hearing from people.

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Speaker 2: So That's the toughest part of this year is Schefter

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Speaker 2: has a deal with different people. Right Schefter could be

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Speaker 2: working he could be close agent friends with whoever Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young's agent, or he could be working with the Panthers.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying to get this information out there so the

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Speaker 2: Texans do make a move. That's the hardest part of

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Speaker 2: this year. And that's why the books they just don't

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Speaker 2: take the money. Chat Like, even though I wanted to

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Speaker 2: get out of my position, it would be so much

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Speaker 2: work to get a ton of money down on Bryce

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Speaker 2: Young to be their first pick. It wouldn't be worth it, Honestly,

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Speaker 2: it would just would not be worth enough, not only

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Speaker 2: how much I have to pay in taxes, how much

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Speaker 2: I had to pay all my runners to get money

403
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Speaker 2: in It just would not be worth this point, so

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Speaker 2: bad read by me definitely gonna look like I'm gonna

405
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Speaker 2: take on the chin. But I'm a psycho, like I

406
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Speaker 2: already bet more on CJ to be the first pick.

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Speaker 2: Still so kind of digging my feet in a little

408
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Speaker 2: bit about it. I'm trying not to be too stubborn

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Speaker 2: about it. But from everything I hear Chad as we

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Speaker 2: sit here on Tuesday, A week and two days before

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Speaker 2: the draft. It seems like it really is a poker

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Speaker 2: play by Carolina about Bryce Young. But the owner does

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Speaker 2: like Bryce Young. Tapper likes Bryce Young. And at the

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Speaker 2: end of the day, I told you I've been in

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Speaker 2: these war rooms now, I've worked with NFL teams. It

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Speaker 2: don't matter. You literally give your opinion to this guy

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Speaker 2: who's writing the checks and he's the one that makes

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Speaker 2: the decision. And we see all the time how stupid

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Speaker 2: that is. If your owner is the one that's making

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Speaker 2: decision about the quarterback, that's a huge negative red flag.

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Speaker 2: And again go back to my Eagles team. That's a

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00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 2: great example of the Eagles already had Carson Wentz and

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Speaker 2: how he went to the owner and said, listen, I'm

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Speaker 2: taking this kut Hurts in the second round because I

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Speaker 2: think he is the upside of Russell Wilson. The owner

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Speaker 2: didn't bat to night and you go, well, already got

427
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Speaker 2: my star franchise quarterback and Carson Wentz. No, he let

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Speaker 2: his general manager do his job. So that's my fear here.

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Speaker 2: It's a new owner on Carolina. This guy wants to

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Speaker 2: make a splash. So yeah, Chat, I would say, seing nervous.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. I've been dreading all week. Every

432
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 2: morning I wake up, I'll check the odds and it

433
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: keeps getting higher. Like you say, he's up to minus

434
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 2: a thousand. It's just like, all right, gotta swallow my product.

435
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,480
Speaker 2: Take on the chin. Here. Just a terrible, terrible read

436
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: by me thinking that a quarterback who weighs less than

437
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: one eighty and playing weight that doesn't run a four

438
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 2: to four forty would be the first pick. But these

439
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 2: are the times we're living in. I mean, the general

440
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 2: manager on the Carolina Panthers talked about how he was

441
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: there when they drafted Russell Wilson to the Seahawks. Okay,

442
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 2: they're just completely different players. Russell Wilson weighed forty five pounds.

443
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:56,840
Speaker 2: One of the kids, Russell Wilson's playing wave right now

444
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,119
Speaker 2: is two forty. This kid, Bright Shawn, will never be

445
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: playing wit at two forty. He's one eighty right now.

446
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: If he's lucky, he'll put on thirty pounds in his

447
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 2: NFL career. So I'm losing my mind because I just

448
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 2: don't see it, Chad. But once again, you could tell

449
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 2: I'm bitter. I'm very bitter about which money about to

450
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 2: lose here, So it is tough to swallow it, but

451
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 2: I gotta do it. I just had a horrible read

452
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 2: on how all these teams would evaluate these quarterbacks. I

453
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 2: just not see Bryce Young being in one pick. But

454
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 2: once again, he's minus one thousand to be in n

455
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 2: one pick.

456
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: All right, so we mentioned Anthony Richardson at least, Simon

457
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: you did. Bet three sixty five has great draft markets

458
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 1: out right now, including Anthony Richardson and his position to

459
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: be draft over under. Right now, they've got it at

460
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 1: three and a half. The over looks like it's minus

461
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: two eighty the under. I'm reading this right. Sometimes it's

462
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 1: hard for me to see everything. Matt Mitchell, tell me

463
00:24:55,440 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: if I'm doing it wrong. Plus two hundred, Nick, where

464
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: do you have Anthony Richardson? Right now?

465
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 3: There's always a possibility of a trade up the Texans,

466
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 3: assuming let's work on the assumption that Bryce Young is

467
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 3: going to be the pick at number one. I don't

468
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 3: think it's over yet, but I think for the purposes

469
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 3: of this discussion, we'll assume that Young is going to

470
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 3: be taken number one. Well, that means that the Texans

471
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 3: at pick two are either going to take the quarterback

472
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 3: two on their board because we know they love Bryce

473
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 3: Young and that the rumor is around the league that

474
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,479
Speaker 3: they may value Will Levis. Now, do they value them

475
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,640
Speaker 3: enough to take them at pick two? I'm not really sure.

476
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 3: They also have that twelve pick that they could kind

477
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 3: of use to move up if Levis were to slide.

478
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 3: I'm not really sure what the Texans are going to do.

479
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 3: But what I am sure and what Lance Zerline, who's

480
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 3: one of the more valuable I don't want to call

481
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 3: him that he is valuable, but one of the best

482
00:25:55,000 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 3: insiders for a team. It's his connection with the Texans, trusted,

483
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 3: reliable source, and he has stated that several times that

484
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 3: the Texans are looking now, assuming Bryce show is going

485
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 3: to be the pick, the Texans are now looking to

486
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: move out of that pick now. So yeah, pick two

487
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 3: potentially being shopped and that kind of kills Arizona's market

488
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 3: because Arizona's been shopping to pick it.

489
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: Picked three.

490
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 3: So then you get to the Colt to pick four,

491
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 3: who may not have as much incentive to move up

492
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 3: for a quarterback. I think that Anthony Richmond is definitely

493
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 3: a consideration for the Colts. He could go to Ford

494
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 3: in Indianapolis. He could certainly go to the Raiders at seven,

495
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 3: even in a trade up or not. And the team

496
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 3: that I'm looking at to move up for either Richardson

497
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,920
Speaker 3: or Stroud if Shroud were to fall is the Titans

498
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 3: at eleven. I don't think they're going to sit back

499
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 3: there at eleven and wait, they don't have a ton

500
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 3: of draft capital. But I think if Richardson or Stroud

501
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 3: falls to that I don't know, five six, seven area.

502
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: I do think that the Titans would want to move

503
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 3: up in front of Atlanta because I think Atlanta may

504
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: take Stroud if he's there. So the Titans are kind

505
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 3: of a team that I think would my best bet

506
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 3: on probably being aggressive to trade up for a quarterback there,

507
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 3: whether it's Stroud or Richardson.

508
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 2: So you take, you take Guner in the three.

509
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 3: You know I'm gonna leave. I'm gonna leave. I have

510
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 3: some bets that I like, I don't that's not a bet.

511
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 3: I haven't bet on any of the quarterback numbers yet.

512
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 3: I'm still trying to. I've been shocked, and I don't

513
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 3: know if you have, Simon, but I've been shocked at

514
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:47,120
Speaker 3: the lack of rumored interests matching quarterbacks to teams. Usually

515
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 3: it's a red flag, as in, like, hey, maybe the

516
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 3: teams don't love the quarterbacks like Richardson and Levis as

517
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 3: much as the media perceives as much as media wants

518
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 3: them to go high. Usually with quarterbacks, there are all

519
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: kinds of rooms. The Raiders are in love with this guy. Oh,

520
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: the Colts love Anthony Richardson. I'm not seeing a lot

521
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 3: of that. I've seen some of it, but I'm not

522
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 3: seeing a ton of that this year for some reason,

523
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 3: and I don't know. To me, it's kind of made

524
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 3: me hesitant to bet the quarterback market at this point.

525
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 3: If I had to say, I'd probably say the over

526
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 3: on what it was at three point five. Yeah, I

527
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 3: think the Colts may sit there. Take them at four.

528
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 3: I think the Titans may move up, and I think

529
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: the the Raiders potentially with Anthony Richardson, we could see

530
00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 3: that as well. But I think the Titans are one

531
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,720
Speaker 3: of the better bets there. So you just said.

532
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: You you haven't bet the quarterback markets. That are other

533
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: bets you like better? What are some of the bets

534
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: you like better?

535
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: I think I don't. I haven't put nearly as much

536
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: money on it, as Simon over here, definitely not near

537
00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: the high stakes that he is. But but JSN first

538
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 3: receiver off the board, I think that that's not the bet.

539
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 3: To be clear, his over underprop is twelve point five,

540
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: and to me, that is pretty aggressive. It's pretty embitious

541
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 3: to say that he's going to be a top twelve pick.

542
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 3: I think the reason the number exists is because of

543
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 3: Houston's pick at twelve. Except based on everything, Zerline, I'll

544
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 3: bring it up again is saying is that the only

545
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: way let's say Houston needs a quarterback, so one of

546
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 3: those two picks that they have picked two and twelve

547
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: could be a quarterback. Another pick is probably going to

548
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 3: be a defensive lineman. The only way Houston I think

549
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: takes JSN the receiver out of a high state is

550
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 3: that is if they take defensive lineman first. Let's say

551
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 3: Will Anderson, they Brys Young goes one, they take Will

552
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 3: Anderson two, and they're like, Okay, let's pun on quarterback

553
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 3: this year, which is not of the ram of possibility.

554
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 3: But even then it's not a sure thing they would

555
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 3: draft Jackson smith Njiguitt number twelve. I don't see the

556
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 3: Titans doing at eleven. I don't see him going in

557
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 3: the top ten. This is a slot receiver primarily who

558
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 3: didn't have a particularly fast forty I think it was

559
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 3: four or five to two. We'll call that average, I guess.

560
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 3: And then he missed. He played sixty snaps last year

561
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 3: for Ohio State. He barely played the hamstring maintenance all

562
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 3: year long, and he's had one season of college production.

563
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 3: Teams typically do not draft slot slot receivers with those

564
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: type of measurables and that one year of production, with

565
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 3: an injury history, they don't draft him in the top twelve.

566
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 3: And a lot of people are saying, oh, you know,

567
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 3: he could be the next Keenan Allen or Justin Jefferson. Well,

568
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: even keen that could be great, that could be true,

569
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 3: But even Keenan Allen was a third round pick because

570
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: of injury concerns, and even Justin jeffersone was picked twenty two.

571
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: Obviously Jefferson should have been taken higher, but it speaks

572
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 3: to the team's hesitancy toward drafting a receiver whose primary

573
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 3: roles in the slot. So already you need a team

574
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 3: that really value use the slot receiver position. And then

575
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 3: doesn't have a great, great speed, and again andrey history,

576
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: there are a bunch of reasons why Jackson Smith DIGIGGBA

577
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 3: could be a really good pro. But he does not

578
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: fit the profile of a top twelve pick at all.

579
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 3: And that's why I would bet the over on twelve

580
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: point five. I see his range being closer to and

581
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: it doesn't sound like a big deal, but I see

582
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 3: his range being closer to fourteen or fifteen. I think

583
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 3: the Patriots are in on him. I think the Packers

584
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 3: are in on JSN. But it wouldn't surprise me to

585
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 3: go further. It wouldn't surprise me at all if teams

586
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 3: just don't view this receiver class as anything like last year's.

587
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 3: And it wouldn't shock me if JSN goes closer to

588
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: Seattle's pick at like pick twenty. Again, I have him

589
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 3: mocked at fourteen to New England, so it's not a

590
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 3: massive disparity between his twelve point five over under. But

591
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 3: when you have a twelve point five prop, I'm just

592
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 3: trying to look at the teams that I don't think

593
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 3: anyone's trading up for this guy because of the concerns

594
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 3: that I just laid out. But if you have twelve

595
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: point five prop I'm looking at teams you were going

596
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 3: to take him before pick twelve. The only team I'm

597
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: seeing is the Texans, and they just have bigger concerns quarterback.

598
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 3: And then Dimiko Ryans first year coach, you have to

599
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 3: believe he's going to want a defender with one of

600
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 3: those picks. Like I just I have a very tough

601
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 3: time believing that the Texans aren't going to take a

602
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 3: defensive player with one of those two picks, whether it's

603
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:33,719
Speaker 3: pick two or pick twelve, seeing as Demiko Ryans is

604
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: a defensive minded coach and former player for the Texans,

605
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 3: former linebacker. All Right, So.

606
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 1: That's an interesting one because the wide receiver market has

607
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,080
Speaker 1: been something that a lot of people have been talking about,

608
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: especially with JSN sort of where he's going to fit

609
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: in this draft. If you were to run through right

610
00:32:55,520 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: now as of Tuesday, April, what is today April eighteen, eighteenth.

611
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 2: Four twenties and two days bruh.

612
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 1: Four twenties and two days before we get crazy, what

613
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: is your top fifteen?

614
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 3: Top fifteen players that I think just in no particular,

615
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,160
Speaker 3: in a particular order and no particular are players that

616
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 3: I think are going in order. In order, well, that's

617
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: tough because I'm still waiting out the trades. But right now,

618
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 3: on my mock draft, I think I think I have

619
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 3: the Texans taking Will Anderson too. After Bryce Young goes

620
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: to Carolina, I think Tyree Wilson to the Cardinals at three.

621
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 3: Now here's the thing. I don't mock trades, so in reality,

622
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 3: I think one of these quarterbacks are gonna go at

623
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 3: least one are going to go higher because of a trade.

624
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 3: But right now I'm not really in the business of

625
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: mockting trade because it's too speculative at this point. I

626
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 3: think the water will clear or be less muddy about

627
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 3: a week from now. However, both the cornerbacks, I think

628
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 3: I've Gonzales going to the Raiders at seven. They could

629
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 3: also go offensive line. Witherspoon going to Detroit at six.

630
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 3: He's a really really good fit there, and I believe

631
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 3: he's the betting favorite to go six five star. I'm

632
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 3: working in a jumble to order. I'm just kind of

633
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 3: thinking about all the big time the top ten prospects

634
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 3: here Seattle. I'm not really buying their interest in a

635
00:34:30,080 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 3: quarterback at all, and same for Detroit at six. Seattle.

636
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 3: I have them taking either Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter. Obviously,

637
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 3: if Will Anderson's there, I think they'll take him as well.

638
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 3: Defensive ends Nolan Smith, Lucas van Ness probably top fifteen picks.

639
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: Nolan Smith probably might go a little higher Atlanta. I

640
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: would say Nolan Smith's range is between Atlanta at eight

641
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 3: and maybe pick nineteen there. Same for van Ness, probably

642
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,479
Speaker 3: eight to nineteen. Jalen Carter I have going to either

643
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 3: the Seahawks at five, the Bears at nine, or the

644
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 3: Eagles at ten. Those are the three teams I've kind

645
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 3: of zoomed in on for Jalen Carter and could see

646
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,400
Speaker 3: Bajohn Robinson in there, could see js and at fourteen

647
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 3: or fifteen. I think I have him gone to the

648
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 3: Patriots right now. I don't think any other receiver will

649
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 3: be taken in the top fifteen. But then you have

650
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: the offensive tackle market. You have Paris Johnson Junior could

651
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 3: go as early as I believe, to the Chicago Bears

652
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 3: at nine. They could also take Progerick Jones out of Georgia.

653
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 3: They could take Peter Skuransky. They're in definite need of

654
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 3: a left or right tackle. Depending on what they want

655
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 3: to do with Braxton there, and I think that Darnelle

656
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 3: Wright also going to play for the top fifteen. There's

657
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,720
Speaker 3: a lot of tackle needy teams and those four offensive

658
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 3: tackles are a good bet to go with at least

659
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 3: in the top sixteen, I would say. And again I

660
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 3: know this is jumbled up. But then the lastly, the

661
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 3: two corners that I think may hit the top fIF

662
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 3: team but probably closer to probably closer to the seventeen

663
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 3: eighteen to twenty two ranger Deontay Banks and Joey Porter Junior.

664
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 3: Those are I think I've covered all the players there

665
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 3: who I'm expected are expected to go. I kind of

666
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,640
Speaker 3: view it as a top excluding the quarterbacks, probably a

667
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 3: top sixteen right there. Excluding quarterbacks, you add four more

668
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 3: and now we're at top twenty. So those four quarterbacks

669
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,279
Speaker 3: going to the top twenty, and all the players I

670
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 3: just mentioned, I believe I reeled off sixteen players. I

671
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 3: kind of see that, as you know, some players will

672
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 3: go a little bit later. Obviously, players always fall. Those

673
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 3: are the twenty players that I feel very comfortable with

674
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 3: mocking in round one, And a lot of these websites

675
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,800
Speaker 3: will grade accuracy on if you miss out on a

676
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 3: first round or at all. Those are players that I

677
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: can say, not for one hundred percent certainty, because you

678
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 3: always have medical rumors or whatever that can change everything.

679
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 3: But but I can say right now I feel confident

680
00:36:59,920 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: that those players, the twenty that I just listed, the

681
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 3: four quarterbacks and the sixteen other players will go in

682
00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: Round one.

683
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 2: It's crazy to hear about just all these teams that

684
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, just teams I would pass on quarterbacks where

685
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 2: I couldn't. I'll never get over the fact that the

686
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 2: Falcons took pits over Justin Fields. Even I mean me

687
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 2: and chat talking naism about it, I couldn't get over

688
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,879
Speaker 2: the fact that it was being mocked out. That's another bet.

689
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: I lost a ton of money on. I bet a

690
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 2: decent amount that Justin Fields would have been drafted by

691
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,799
Speaker 2: Atlanta because it just made sense. Same thing with the

692
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: Seahawks here, Like the Seahawks, if CJ does slip or

693
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson does slip, I just I don't see how

694
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,520
Speaker 2: the Seahawks don't make the move. Like I love the

695
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 2: Geno Smith story, that was all fun and good. He'll

696
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,279
Speaker 2: never be a top five guy, and that's the whole

697
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: reason you draft these quarterbacks. You're drafting for a top

698
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,399
Speaker 2: five guy, You're drafting for an upside. I love justin

699
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 2: fields like a young spark to come into a team

700
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: on a cheap contract. Man, that's heartbreaking here, and all

701
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 2: these teams just pass on quarterbacks like this, but just really,

702
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 2: really quick. I want to get your take on this,

703
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 2: just because my guy Vegas refund hooked it up. I

704
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 2: bet at twenty five to one and twenty one Zay

705
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 2: Flowers to be the number one pick for wide receivers.

706
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 2: We've seen his odds go way way up after he's

707
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 2: had a couple of workouts. I'd love to hear your

708
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 2: view on it. You think there's ston any kind of

709
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 2: value right now in bed three sixty five to bet

710
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 2: him at plus four hundred to be their first pick,

711
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,920
Speaker 2: because we've seen the number come down, right it's he

712
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: was at ten to one a week ago. Now he's

713
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,719
Speaker 2: down to four to one. Is there still any value

714
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 2: there on Zay Flowers in your opinion?

715
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 3: I think there's some value. I have a tough time

716
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 3: believing that JSN is going to get past both the

717
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 3: Patriots at fourteen and the Packers at fifteen. Jay Flowers

718
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 3: benefit even though he is undersaize at five nine, five

719
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 3: to ten and whatever he came out at. He's an

720
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 3: outside receiver, so teams are going to value that. He

721
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 3: also has the ability to play in the slot. A

722
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 3: team that I have been looking at for Zay Flowers

723
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 3: a lot, I personally leaves a Flowers is going to

724
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 3: fall into that rain that twenty two I want to say.

725
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 3: I mean, you're looking at the Seahawks who need a

726
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 3: slot receiver at twenty and he kind of fits the profile.

727
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 3: I think Josh Norris did a really good job explaining

728
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 3: how the Seahawks have not signed anyone to overtake Marquis Goodwin,

729
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 3: who was a pretty good I think he played over

730
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: four hundredsnas for the Seahawks last year and it was

731
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 3: a great role player for them. They've not signed anyone

732
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:29,919
Speaker 3: to take that role. Jay Flowers could be the guy

733
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 3: there also, Jordan Addison, I think, but going to the Seahawks,

734
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 3: going to the Chargers at twenty one, the Vikings at

735
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 3: twenty three, that's kind of the range I'm expecting Zay

736
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 3: Flowers to fall into. Would it shock me if Zay

737
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 3: Flowers went ahead of Jackson Smith nidigmuad. No, absolutely not.

738
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 3: I think that. I don't know. It's not something that

739
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: I bet, but it is. Yeah, he is trending up.

740
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 3: I totally agree with you. And not only is Jay

741
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: Flowers trending up, Simon, you may have noticed other receivers

742
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 3: who were projected to be picked prior to day Flowers,

743
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 3: or at least near them, like Quentin Johnson, have been

744
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 3: trending downwards. I think teams and this isn't players rising

745
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 3: on the team's boards. It's the media figuring out more

746
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 3: how the NFL really views these guys. As more boards

747
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 3: are made last week and going into this week, Quinn

748
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 3: Johnston is now viewed to be pick twenty five and

749
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 3: above or pick twenty five, pick thirty one at Kansas City.

750
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 3: So in fact, that was a bet I made. Is

751
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,720
Speaker 3: that a matching team to player? I think Quentin Johnston

752
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 3: to Kansas City, I think I got it like plus

753
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 3: like three thousand odds, which I thought was generous, but

754
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,879
Speaker 3: just because of their need for receiver. But anyway, No,

755
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 3: I think other receivers as they're trending downward, Jay Flowers

756
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 3: has been going upwards. So yeah, I like the bet.

757
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 3: It's not what I made personally, but I like that

758
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,200
Speaker 3: you have some skin in the game there, because, yeah,

759
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 3: for all the reason I stated about JSN, I do

760
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 3: think some teams like the Patriots and Packers will like

761
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: him a lot. But if he falls past fourteen fifteen,

762
00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 3: those would be the teams I would be scared off

763
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 3: if I were you when they were on the clock.

764
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 3: I don't think Washington is going to take a receiver

765
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 3: at sixteen. I don't think Pittsburgh is going to take

766
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 3: a receiver. They have offensive tackle and cornerback issues that's

767
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,240
Speaker 3: been o where all their visits are. Detroit at eighteen

768
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 3: probably defensive side of the ball. If I had to

769
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: say Tampa Bay at nineteen too, mini offensive tackle concerns.

770
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 3: They already have good receivers anyway. So now you're at Seattle.

771
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 3: Seattle could definitely take Zay Flowers over JSN. So yeah,

772
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 3: I envisioned the scenario again. I have JSN going I

773
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 3: think fourteen to my mott, and Flowers going either to

774
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 3: Seattle at twenty or I think Minnesota at twenty three.

775
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, I could see it.

776
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: We've got another pot of draft coming up on Thursday.

777
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: Is going to be on the pod with Vegas Refund

778
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 1: on Action Network Podcasts on Monday each draft season. Folks,

779
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: we cannot get enough of the draft conversation. I really

780
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: want CJ. Shroud to go number one just because I

781
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,759
Speaker 1: want Simon to win, because I root for my friends too.

782
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: I want Nick to have the most accurate mock draft

783
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:29,560
Speaker 1: again so he can continue to have his star rise.

784
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:36,320
Speaker 1: I want to remind people that we are now sponsored bye.

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