Speaker 1: You, guys, we are less than three weeks away from
Speaker 1: election day. What will happen? Where does this race stand?
Speaker 1: You look at the real clear of politics averages. You
Speaker 1: look at a lot of these polls that come out.
Speaker 1: I mean, it looks like this race is a coin flip.
Speaker 1: It looks like all these battleground states are largely within
Speaker 1: the margin of error. Then you look at things like
Speaker 1: the betting odds and the betting ods have Donald Trump
Speaker 1: winning by almost sixty one percent. And then you also
Speaker 1: look at some of the actions that Kamala Harris and
Speaker 1: her campaign are taking. She's had a complete shift in
Speaker 1: her media strategy. She's going to be going on Fox
Speaker 1: News with Brett bharrsch will have done that interview that
Speaker 1: will err by the time you're hearing this. She's also
Speaker 1: made a concerted effort to sit down with liberal media,
Speaker 1: which would elude and give the idea that she is
Speaker 1: maybe worried about her base. We have seen her recently
Speaker 1: come out with this opportunity agenda for black men, basically
Speaker 1: trying to buy their votes, including legalized marijuana, which I
Speaker 1: think says a lot about how she've used black men.
Speaker 1: We've seen Barack Obama come out and try to shame
Speaker 1: black men the whole Joe Biden's strategy, Oh you ain't
Speaker 1: black if you vote for Donald Trump. That all speaks
Speaker 1: to me of desperation. So is the polling true? Are
Speaker 1: these polls true that we're saying, and also are there
Speaker 1: any groups of voters that we should be watching for?
Speaker 1: Are there any groups of voters that will surprise us
Speaker 1: on election Day? We're going to talk to a numbers guy.
Speaker 1: He's constantly crunching the numbers. His name is Ryan Gerdusky.
Speaker 1: He founded the seventeen seventy six Project. It is a
Speaker 1: pack dedicated to school board races, very important looking at
Speaker 1: locally from the ground up in and elections across America.
Speaker 1: He also has a newsletter called the National Populist Newsletter.
Speaker 1: It's on substack. You can follow that where he breaks
Speaker 1: down a lot of the numbers where he's looking at
Speaker 1: races both here in the United States as well as
Speaker 1: globally as well. But he really digs into the numbers.
Speaker 1: So I think you're really going to enjoy this conversation
Speaker 1: kind of nerding out a little bit for the next hour.
Speaker 1: But before we get to Ryan, I want to tell
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Speaker 1: give that's one word support IFCJ dot org. Ryan, it's
Speaker 1: great to have you on the show I've been watching
Speaker 1: on CNN. You've been doing a great job. It's sort
Speaker 1: of interesting to see people's heads explosed when explode when
Speaker 1: you when you face them with the facts. So you're
Speaker 1: doing a great job.
Speaker 2: Thank you. Well.
Speaker 1: I wanted to, you know, sort of big picture, where
Speaker 1: do you think this election stands today?
Speaker 2: It's so razor like thin, like the margins, And I
Speaker 2: don't know whether there are parts of me that sit
Speaker 2: there and say it's razor thin because polsters are very
Speaker 2: afraid of getting burnt like they got in the last
Speaker 2: two elections, especially in twenty twenty not twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: I'm talking about like the presidential elections. Every time Trump's
Speaker 2: on the ballot, and there are so part of me
Speaker 2: says they're all worried about being wrong, so they're playing
Speaker 2: it safe. And then another part of me says that,
Speaker 2: you know, if you look at a lot of these polls,
Speaker 2: you're seeing these huge margins for Harris among seniors among
Speaker 2: college educated whites, and frankly, you saw those exact numbers
Speaker 2: for both Hillary and Biden and neither one ended up
Speaker 2: being true. So is it that there's an enthusiasm gap
Speaker 2: as far as who wants to talk to a polster
Speaker 2: and is throwing their weight behind it? Now, there is
Speaker 2: big excitement for Harris. It's not like it doesn't exist.
Speaker 2: And you're seeing that in the first day voting in Virginia,
Speaker 2: the first day voting in Georgia, first day of voting
Speaker 2: appsent emails in Pennsylvania. Democrats are are showing up in
Speaker 2: really big numbers. But is it just that it's very
Speaker 2: enthused Democrats are showing up in very big numbers, or
Speaker 2: is it that the overall population is showing up? Kind
Speaker 2: of I kind of venture on the fact is people
Speaker 2: who would have been voting no matter what are just
Speaker 2: voting first day because they, you know, watch Rachel Maddowen
Speaker 2: live to hey Donald Trump. So we'll wait, we have
Speaker 2: to wait and see. I mean, it's not there's no
Speaker 2: clear answer. What I would love if anyone listening to
Speaker 2: your podcasts or anybody else could do this, if you could,
Speaker 2: if anyone could find out like in Pennsylvania mail in ballots,
Speaker 2: that pennsylvani is one of the very very few states
Speaker 2: in the country that is a swing state that also
Speaker 2: has party registration. That if they could find out if
Speaker 2: these Republicans who are turning in their ballots and requesting
Speaker 2: ballots are low perpensity or high propensity voters, that would
Speaker 2: really give us a much better number as to what's
Speaker 2: really going on than just looking at the estimates. So
Speaker 2: we don't know people's voting history. And are we Democrats
Speaker 2: are hoping that Republicans high early turnout is cannibalizing their
Speaker 2: election day turnout. But we don't know that to be true.
Speaker 2: We don't know that not to be true. We really
Speaker 2: have no idea.
Speaker 1: Well, so dig into that a little bit because I
Speaker 1: know you've been posting and following. You know, the data
Speaker 1: were available with st ballot requests as well as returns
Speaker 1: in different states. I guess you know you kind of
Speaker 1: alluded to it a little bit before. But you know,
Speaker 1: what does that data tell you? Does it tell you anything?
Speaker 1: You know, what are you trying to learn from that?
Speaker 2: Right? There are seven big swing swing states, right, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia,
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So eight eight big
Speaker 2: swing states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada have a
Speaker 2: party registration. The other states do not. So when you're
Speaker 2: looking at Georgia, Georgia is the only one of those
Speaker 2: states that reports racial voting by by black, white, Hispanic, YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 2: Aside from that, everything is just geographical locations that were
Speaker 2: really estimating it. Our big Trump counties coming out are
Speaker 2: big Biden counties coming out. We don't know party affiliation.
Speaker 2: But we'll go to Pennsylvania because Pennsylvania, while they do
Speaker 2: not have early in person voting, they do have a
Speaker 2: very robust absentee mail in situation. So as of right now,
Speaker 2: Republicans are just shy of a half a million ballad
Speaker 2: requests yesterday, This is fresh off the presses yesterday on Tuesday. Sorry,
Speaker 2: this morning, on Wednesday, October sixteenth, at eight thirty, they
Speaker 2: posted the update and there were thirteen thousand, eight hundred
Speaker 2: new absentee ballot request for Republicans. There were ten thousand,
Speaker 2: eight hundred for Democrats. Republicans posted nearly three thousand more
Speaker 2: absentee ballot requests than Democrats did. That is the highest
Speaker 2: margin for Republicans over Democrats in at least ten years.
Speaker 2: On a single day that is never that doesn't happen.
Speaker 2: Republicans are about two hundred and ten thousand more absenty
Speaker 2: ballot requests then they were in twenty twenty two, and
Speaker 2: they are about one hundred and fifty thousand more than
Speaker 2: Democrats were in twenty twenty two. That's a pretty good number.
Speaker 2: And I use twenty twenty two two because it was
Speaker 2: in COVID, you know, twenty twenty was. Republicans are going
Speaker 2: to get very very close. They only have eleven more days.
Speaker 2: They're probably going to be if I had to take
Speaker 2: an estimated guess, they're probably going to be about one
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to one hundred thousand votes short of
Speaker 2: their twenty twenty numbers. Democrats will be about eight hundred
Speaker 2: thousand short of their twenty twenty numbers. Now that doesn't
Speaker 2: mean Democrats are not going to go vote, they're just
Speaker 2: not voting via absentee. So what does that look like
Speaker 2: as far as as far as the election goes. Banking
Speaker 2: your vote early is very, very very important. We just
Speaker 2: don't know if those voters for Republicans are lower propensity
Speaker 2: voters who would have voted anyway or sorry, who would
Speaker 2: have not voted, were not guaranteed to show up to vote,
Speaker 2: versus those who are always guaranteed to vote. I will
Speaker 2: say this, as far as ballots being returned, Democrats are
Speaker 2: just killing it. When it comes to returning ballots on time.
Speaker 2: Democrats have a very, very very sizeable lead to Republicans
Speaker 2: of over a quarter of a million ballots being returned
Speaker 2: so far, that could all change. And as long as
Speaker 2: Republicans keep out pacing Democrats. If that happens with requests,
Speaker 2: then the potential for them to run very close to
Speaker 2: dead even or at least within a four hundred thousand
Speaker 2: voter difference is very important for Republicans in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: And it's like, but if they're requesting ballots, you've got
Speaker 1: to chase those ballots and make sure they turn them
Speaker 1: in right now.
Speaker 2: But you can always turn them in on election day.
Speaker 2: And I've heard that from a number of people in
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania who are like, I'm requesting my ballot early so
Speaker 2: I have it and then I'm going to hand it
Speaker 2: in on election day. That's totally legal, perfectly fine. People
Speaker 2: do that. I always like to sit there and say,
Speaker 2: if you know yourself and you're not a if you're
Speaker 2: somebody who likes to sleep in, you've got a baby,
Speaker 2: your car is not reliable, you don't like the rain
Speaker 2: or the snow or whatever the weather situation could be,
Speaker 2: just go hand in your ballot early, like, just go
Speaker 2: vote early, get it out of the way, and bank
Speaker 2: your vote, because you would be by the amount of
Speaker 2: people who either think that they have voted and haven't
Speaker 2: or have every good intention to go vote, and then
Speaker 2: they just forget, They just forget on Electionally. I worked
Speaker 2: because I worked in campaigns for a long time. I
Speaker 2: worked for Jdvanca Super Pac. I had a candidate one
Speaker 2: time running for Congress. This is back in twenty ten,
Speaker 2: who went through his voter history and where like, you
Speaker 2: didn't vote in like two of the last three presidential elections.
Speaker 2: And he was like, yes, I did. And I was like,
Speaker 2: I'm looking at your history. You did not vote. And
Speaker 2: there's so many people who don't vote and they think
Speaker 2: they do. Chapel Roone, that pop star right now. She
Speaker 2: sat there and she said about voting and YadA, YadA, YadA,
Speaker 2: and someone pulled up her voting history and she had
Speaker 2: never voted, which is very normal. But like to said,
Speaker 2: there in a ten year old like a political activist
Speaker 2: and you never voted is more common than you would expect.
Speaker 2: So let's go to Georgia for a second. So Georgie
Speaker 2: is a very important state. Obviously, it's a state that
Speaker 2: Biden barely won. It's a state that Trump could easily win,
Speaker 2: and he's been ahead in the polls. A big problem
Speaker 2: for Republicans in Georgia is that high counties with large
Speaker 2: populations of non college educated whites, a lot of counties
Speaker 2: that vote heavily Republican, have absolutely horrendous, horrendous turnout. Marjorie
Speaker 2: Taylor Green's district, which is the most Republican district in
Speaker 2: the state of Georgia, had I think it was like
Speaker 2: seventy thousand fewer votes than the city of Atlanta. Now
Speaker 2: it's not that their voters don't live there, they do.
Speaker 2: They just don't show up and they're not mobilized in
Speaker 2: the way that Atlanta is the most. If Republican counties
Speaker 2: and Republican congression districts voted at the same level Democrats did,
Speaker 2: Trump would have won that state of Georgia by oh
Speaker 2: easily over seventy thousand votes without having a convincent anybody.
Speaker 2: So as far as the raw vote goes, obviously the
Speaker 2: most populated counties Fulton, Cobb to Cap Gwenette, these are
Speaker 2: very blue counties with large populations. They had the most
Speaker 2: votes that came in on the first day of early voting.
Speaker 2: It was a record breaking day. But there's a very
Speaker 2: big caveat. In twenty twenty, half a million people had
Speaker 2: already voted by absentee before they've started in person voting.
Speaker 2: This time, I think like it's like twelve thousand voted absentee.
Speaker 2: Almost nobody voted absentee by mail. Everyone was waiting to
Speaker 2: vote in person. So there's a high intensity, but it's
Speaker 2: they are switching just platforms. I mean, people are just
Speaker 2: voting from absentee to mail it.
Speaker 1: You know, looking at North Carolina, how do you think
Speaker 1: Helene could impact the election? I know NPR found that
Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the county's FEMA designated as places
Speaker 1: residents could qualify for aid. Trump one or fifty of
Speaker 1: those counties overall, Right, so North, So how do you
Speaker 1: think their ability to get to you know to vote.
Speaker 2: Well, it's very very difficult to sit there and say one.
Speaker 2: I genuinely don't know if we're ever going to find
Speaker 2: out how many people or if they are not ever.
Speaker 2: But we don't know as of now how many people
Speaker 2: just died and they're gone missing, or they are moved
Speaker 2: into like camp somewhere, or they're just off the grid.
Speaker 2: I mean, we just don't know. What I have looked
Speaker 2: at is if you look, there's two important parts. One
Speaker 2: Western North Carolina is the most liberal part of Appalachia. Right,
Speaker 2: it is far more liberal than Appalachia in Virginia, West Virginia,
Speaker 2: South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. It is the most liberal part
Speaker 2: in a big part because Asheville is in San Francisco
Speaker 2: on the east coast. It has I mean, the city
Speaker 2: of Asheville voted like ninety two to eight for Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: and that was completely crushed. The outsized counties in the north,
Speaker 2: like Eastern area, those are the ones that were really devastated.
Speaker 2: They're not that populated. So while the region as a
Speaker 2: whole is very populated, the parts that were truly decimated
Speaker 2: were not that populated. And when you when you look
Speaker 2: at the counties of role that gave to gave votes
Speaker 2: to Biden versus those that gave to Trump. It's about
Speaker 2: a thirty five thousand margin in favor of Biden for
Speaker 2: the Blue counties and a thirty thousand and thirty five
Speaker 2: thousand margin for the Trump counties. It may be even
Speaker 2: maybe Asheville will recoup faster because it's a city and
Speaker 2: they'll start going out to vote early. I don't know,
Speaker 2: is like the answer. It shouldn't be the biggest change.
Speaker 2: I mean that everyone affected. Everyone sits there and says,
Speaker 2: when you realize the population changes in rural black North Carolina,
Speaker 2: how the population has shrunk when you look at the
Speaker 2: amount of people who have moved to the state and
Speaker 2: increased voter registration, We're not a lot of people sit
Speaker 2: there and say, oh, look at twenty twenty and those
Speaker 2: are That's true for states that are especially stagnant in
Speaker 2: population or maybe even shrinking a little in population. It's
Speaker 2: not true for North Carolina, which is such a robust
Speaker 2: population growth, because there's about a quarter of a million
Speaker 2: new voters that weren't there four years ago. What alone
Speaker 2: people just turning eighteen, but people moving from the northeast
Speaker 2: during COVID that changed dramatically the makeup of North Carolina
Speaker 2: in a lot of ways. So I don't know, it's
Speaker 2: not I don't think as of right now it's going
Speaker 2: to decide the election, simply because the Asheville population kind
Speaker 2: of offsets the other populations. And if Western North Carolina
Speaker 2: voted like Western Virginia, I would sit there and say, yeah,
Speaker 2: it's so those are Republican vashion it's the most republican
Speaker 2: part of the state. It's frankly not the most republican
Speaker 2: part of the state, not even close. Further Inland and
Speaker 2: into eastern North Carolina is much more Republican than Western
Speaker 2: North Carolina. So I know there's a big fear of
Speaker 2: the voting situation going on. I think the Republicans do
Speaker 2: everything they can. I think they've changed some rules there
Speaker 2: to help it make it easier for people to vote.
Speaker 2: But we'll have to wait and see.
Speaker 1: You know. One thing I think is interesting this election
Speaker 1: cycle is, you know, and it seems pretty consistent in
Speaker 1: various surveys where more voters are identifying as Republican than Democrat.
Speaker 1: You know, we saw that Gallup poll not too long ago,
Speaker 1: finding that by three points more voters identify as Republican
Speaker 1: than Democrats. First time Republicans had that advantage in the
Speaker 1: third quarter before a presidential election since nineteen ninety two.
Speaker 1: It's hard to imagine that that won't translate into the
Speaker 1: Republican Party, you know, performing that way in both presidential
Speaker 1: and down ballot. But you know, how do you read that?
Speaker 1: I mean, that is different than past elections.
Speaker 2: It's very difficult. So what like the New York Times,
Speaker 2: Nate Cohen, who's a very smart guy, what Ham, what
Speaker 2: Nate Silver. What they're all looking at is we all
Speaker 2: believe that there's some kind of a realignment. Right, minorities
Speaker 2: are especially more Republican, and the national polling is substantially
Speaker 2: better for Trump than it is for him in twenty
Speaker 2: or twenty four. The question that's on everyone's minds, and
Speaker 2: we'll find this out after election day, is is it
Speaker 2: because blue states are significantly voting more read than previous
Speaker 2: election cycle. So I wrote this in my substack, the
Speaker 2: National Populist newsletter. What they're betting on in a lot
Speaker 2: of polls is Trump is down fourteen points in New York.
Speaker 2: That's the state he lost by twenty three points. Last time,
Speaker 2: he's down by twenty three points. In California state he
Speaker 2: lost by twenty nine points. They're looking at these very
Speaker 2: blue states Hawaii, Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey, New York,
Speaker 2: California and saying, wow, he's posting five point plus ships
Speaker 2: largely on the back of Asian, Hispanic Jewish Orthodox Jewish
Speaker 2: voters who am some Black voters who are just like,
Speaker 2: we are not doing this anymore, Like we've really been
Speaker 2: screwed by democratic governance from the local government onwards. And
Speaker 2: that could be super helpful. If you're Mike Garcia, if
Speaker 2: you're Mike Lawler, you're hoping for these huge ships right
Speaker 2: wing because it will inevitably help you win these congressionals seats.
Speaker 2: But it won't flip these states red maybe over long
Speaker 2: trend lines.
Speaker 1: It will do by the down ballot, you know, yea,
Speaker 1: it helps you.
Speaker 2: At the same time, if suburban America is still voting
Speaker 2: very left well, and they're increasingly moving left, white college
Speaker 2: educated voters will then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin may be too
Speaker 2: far for you to reach. And that's really where the
Speaker 2: big question is is, like, is this realignment house significance realignment.
Speaker 2: And when it comes to polls, and I mentioned this
Speaker 2: before the break or sorry, before we started, was that
Speaker 2: if you look at poles, there's a lot of polls
Speaker 2: in sixteen and in twenty that overestimated the support among
Speaker 2: college educated whites. It's a group that both Hillary and
Speaker 2: Biden won, but they didn't win them at the margins
Speaker 2: that pollsters said they would in a lot of these poles.
Speaker 2: If you deep dive into cross tabs, which you will
Speaker 2: go insane from doing, which is why I don't suggest
Speaker 2: because I do it all the time. You see a
Speaker 2: lot of times Harris winning seniors. And I've written significantly
Speaker 2: about this, or wrote this for the American Conservative magazine
Speaker 2: and for my sub stock. The seniors are a group
Speaker 2: that have voted Republican in every election since at least
Speaker 2: the year two thousand. There has been no break with seniors.
Speaker 2: And actually the group underneath seniors were who would be
Speaker 2: seniors now but weren't four and eight years ago, vote
Speaker 2: more Republican than seniors now than seniors in the past.
Speaker 2: So given that there should be close to no shift,
Speaker 2: it's basically a very fixed group unless you've died or
Speaker 2: you've aged into the senior citizen category. There's not like
Speaker 2: a plethora of new immigrants who are seniors who are
Speaker 2: coming to this country and are voting. The key thing
Speaker 2: is is that they all have Harris winning this group.
Speaker 2: And my belief is is that one polling is extremely expensive.
Speaker 2: If for a good poster, it could cost you fifty
Speaker 2: sixty thousand dollars per poll.
Speaker 1: They used to work in polling.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very expensive and it's very hard to do.
Speaker 2: So a lot of times pollsters will go to people
Speaker 2: that they know answer polls, and they have reported a
Speaker 2: huge swing in favor of Harris among seniors. I fundamentally
Speaker 2: do not believe this to be true. That is why
Speaker 2: I think the polls are underestimating Trump support, just like
Speaker 2: they did four and eight years ago. That is like
Speaker 2: the big fear that Harris people have. I know, I've
Speaker 2: spoken to a lot of reporters who are very familiar
Speaker 2: with both parties internals. Both Trump's internals and Harris internals
Speaker 2: have both respective people winning. But it's all within the
Speaker 2: margin of error. It's all sitting there and saying it's
Speaker 2: Harris plus one Trump plus one, which really means it
Speaker 2: could be anyone's ball game. Based upon who shows up.
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Speaker 1: radio dot Com. That's pretty remarkable given the facts, you know.
Speaker 1: The Trump campaign put out a memo recently talking about
Speaker 1: how since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent two
Speaker 1: hundred and forty one million dollars in untrackable media spend
Speaker 1: compared to about one hundred and five million from the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign, nearly two point five to one spending advantage.
Speaker 1: And yet the Real Cleared Politics national average has her,
Speaker 1: you know, by less than two percent. And on the
Speaker 1: same day twenty twenty, Biden was up ten point three percent.
Speaker 1: So and then you look at the media coverage where
Speaker 1: you know, eighty four percent positive for eighty nine percent
Speaker 1: negative for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Right, And if you look at the most important thing,
Speaker 2: and I sent this to I was talking to somebody
Speaker 2: very up in the in the Trump campaign. If you
Speaker 2: look at Pennsylvania, right, A lot of Republicans are having
Speaker 2: this nervousness about Pennsylvania, especially given that Oz and these
Speaker 2: Real Care Politics pulling average was ahead at the very
Speaker 2: end and then went on to lose by five points.
Speaker 2: What's important to remember is if you strip away the
Speaker 2: partisan polls and you look at non partisan poles. I'm
Speaker 2: talking to Fox News, CNN, Quinnipiac, the New York Times, Marist,
Speaker 2: they all had Fetterment up by five. It was right
Speaker 2: wing polls that really threw OZ such a heavy advantage.
Speaker 2: And the way the Real Care Politics and there were
Speaker 2: great websites, so I'm not trashing them. But the way
Speaker 2: they do it is they age polls out eventually after
Speaker 2: a week or two, and they put the new poles up.
Speaker 2: But that's not what's going on right now. In Pennsylvania, Emerson,
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Susquehanna Maris, Washington Post, and
Speaker 2: Muhlberg all have Pennsylvania either Trump leading or tide. In Wisconsin,
Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal, Emerson, and Quineypiac all have Trump
Speaker 2: winning or tiede and Michigan Emerson, Quineypiac, and MIRS polls
Speaker 2: and the new one which was Fabreezia pull A's a
Speaker 2: Republican bolster, but they all had Trump tied or winning.
Speaker 2: So there are a lot of non partisan poles sitting
Speaker 2: there and saying, no, this could go for Trump. Really,
Speaker 2: turnout is the key motivating thing that I think it's
Speaker 2: important to kind of focus in on apparent ballot voting
Speaker 2: and showing up. Democrats are really hoping that these super
Speaker 2: blue counties and these very ambitiously aggressively anti Trump voters
Speaker 2: build a firewall for them basically so that way, no
Speaker 2: matter if a million people show up on election day,
Speaker 2: they've already banked these votes. Republicans have caught wise to
Speaker 2: it a bit, especially after being burned in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: I think that's what you're seeing in Pennsylvania as far
Speaker 2: as Absentee ballad or westco. It's just a matter of
Speaker 2: do they show up beforehand and are they lower pensity
Speaker 2: voters versus hyperpency voters. And also, mind you, another important thing,
Speaker 2: and we saw this out of Virginia right now. Virginia's
Speaker 2: obviously not really a swing state. It's almost surely going
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. But what we saw out of Virginia
Speaker 2: is places like rural black counties and Prince William County
Speaker 2: all until like yesterday. Princeville County posted big numbers like
Speaker 2: two days ago, but before then they were having very
Speaker 2: low turnout in precincts that were majority black, rural black,
Speaker 2: majority Hispanic districts that had voted for Trump by I'm
Speaker 2: sorry for Biden by over seventy percent, had a far
Speaker 2: worse early vote turnout so far. I actually have the numbers.
Speaker 2: I could just read them to you. Give me one second.
Speaker 2: They had a far worse early turnout. So this is
Speaker 2: as of two days ago. In the districts that voted
Speaker 2: for Trump by over eighty percent, right they have a
Speaker 2: nine percent to vote registered voter turnout as of right now.
Speaker 2: In the districts that voted for Trump by under twenty percent,
Speaker 2: those are almost exclusively either college educated whites or black precincts.
Speaker 2: They voted for Trump by under about ten point three percent,
Speaker 2: And districts that had voted a little more for Biden
Speaker 2: twenty to thirty percent for Trump had a ten percent.
Speaker 2: So I know that's a lot of numbers. So about
Speaker 2: ten percent for districts that had voted for Biden by
Speaker 2: over seventy percent, and about nine percent for dishes of
Speaker 2: voted for Trump by over eighty percent. The districts that
Speaker 2: are showing up in these early precincts in Virginia voted
Speaker 2: for Trump by between fifty and seventy percent. That's who's
Speaker 2: showing up in the highest amount in Virginia. Now. Once again,
Speaker 2: Virginia is not a swing state. But the idea that
Speaker 2: elections are local is not true. Elections are national. The
Speaker 2: way that those voters in Virginia are showing up are
Speaker 2: the way those voters in Pennsylvania are showing up are
Speaker 2: the way those voters in Georgia are showing up. So
Speaker 2: as the time continues to pass, as we keep moving
Speaker 2: into the early election cycles, especially in Georgia, look out
Speaker 2: for the Black belts. The Black Belt being very you know,
Speaker 2: the descendants of slaves who live in rural Georgia. It
Speaker 2: stretches throughout central and lower and southern Georgia, their majority
Speaker 2: black counties. They have been trending to the right. Look
Speaker 2: to see if they're showing up in early voting. If
Speaker 2: they're not showing up in Georgia, and if they're not
Speaker 2: showing up in Virginia and they don't show there's there's
Speaker 2: no gamer they're gonna showup on election day. And if
Speaker 2: that happens, that changes the economy of tens of thousands
Speaker 2: of votes possibly in lower rural pensity, lower lower preensity,
Speaker 2: rural minority districts across the South, so Georgia, North Carolina,
Speaker 2: and it could possibly also bleed out into you know,
Speaker 2: other states. The other people you need to look out
Speaker 2: for is in a lot of secondary populated cities. So
Speaker 2: I'm not talking Philadelphia, I'm not talking in Pittsburgh or Phoenix.
Speaker 2: I'm talking smaller cities Dethlehem, Pennsylvania, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Reading Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: Prince William County, Prince the area around Prince William County, Virginia.
Speaker 2: All of those places are majority Hispanic. They have had
Speaker 2: thus far fairly low turnout. If there is a big
Speaker 2: push by Trump, if he's going to jump up two
Speaker 2: three four points, and if Harris is going to go
Speaker 2: down three four points among Hispanics in this demographics, if
Speaker 2: those lower pensity voters are not ambitious to vote like
Speaker 2: they were in twenty twenty, it's still overall a loss
Speaker 2: in the raw vote count for Harris. So those are
Speaker 2: the things that I will personally be looking for. Given
Speaker 2: that in most states we don't have party registration, and
Speaker 2: in the states we do put a registration, we don't
Speaker 2: know people's past voting history. Those are little context clues
Speaker 2: and little tea leaves we could sit there and try
Speaker 2: to read.
Speaker 1: The only difference I would say, probably or perhaps is
Speaker 1: that you know, Virginia is also not being inundated with
Speaker 1: negative advertising about Donald Trump lake states like Pennsylvania or
Speaker 1: Georgia would be, and people aren't probably chasing ballots as
Speaker 1: much in Virginia as they are in some of these
Speaker 1: other states.
Speaker 2: Right, well, there are groups because remember there are there
Speaker 2: are a lot of organizations that care about Virginia's congressional districts.
Speaker 2: Virginia has two, maybe three, if you want to stretch it,
Speaker 2: maybe three districts that are really important the seventh Congression,
Speaker 2: of the second congressional on the tenth congressional So there's
Speaker 2: a lot of effort in those three very important congressional districts.
Speaker 2: If the Republicans can flip the seventh congressional district in Virginia,
Speaker 2: that would be a gigantic, gigantic win for the party.
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of work being done on the ground,
Speaker 2: not as much on the presidential level. But once again,
Speaker 2: it's not like you can be really divorced, you know,
Speaker 2: except if you're I mean, the golden hour of television
Speaker 2: for people, for advertisers is the hour between the local
Speaker 2: news and Jeopardy and Will of Fortune, which still has
Speaker 2: raizy high viewership and it pays for all local television.
Speaker 2: So you'll still see some ads there. But I mean,
Speaker 2: you're going to see digital ads on every single platform,
Speaker 2: regardless of where you live. You're going to see some
Speaker 2: level of advertising and there are local groups that are
Speaker 2: doing pushing to get early votes out. And young Glenn
Speaker 2: Youngkin has a lot to prove right now too, because
Speaker 2: if Glenn Youngkin can sit there and say, hey, we
Speaker 2: flipped the seventh we kept the second congressulation Republican, and
Speaker 2: we got Virginia down to a five point margin again,
Speaker 2: you know, I would be a perfect choice in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty eight or a great Senate candidate in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: That's not really lost in anybody. So they these local
Speaker 2: governors have a lot if they can sit there and
Speaker 2: pull their candid their states close to the victory and
Speaker 2: bring congressional districts with them.
Speaker 1: You know, Ryan, that's a great point. You know. You
Speaker 1: know obviously you know we're looking at the data. We're
Speaker 1: trying to assess, you know, where this race stands here,
Speaker 1: you know, very close to election day, which is wild.
Speaker 1: But you know, we also in addition to the data,
Speaker 1: we also look at, you know, sort of the messaging
Speaker 1: and who campaigns are trying to you're kind of looking
Speaker 1: at like the big picture, like all of it. And
Speaker 1: we've seen her campaign make this heavy pushed for men,
Speaker 1: specifically for black men. You know, she basically just announced
Speaker 1: all these giveaways for black business owners, including legalizing marijuana.
Speaker 1: We've said, we've said, which really I think shows us
Speaker 1: what they think of black men. But we've got Obama
Speaker 1: basically like the whole another Joe Biden like you ain't black.
Speaker 1: You know if you vote for Trump more or less.
Speaker 1: You know, this real shaming of black men who plan
Speaker 1: on voting for Trump. So I guess what does that
Speaker 1: tell you? And and sort of reading the tea leaves
Speaker 1: and and even just this, you know, the messaging pitch
Speaker 1: as we head into election day.
Speaker 2: I ken, I do not believe there is a universe
Speaker 2: where you switch media strategies a month out that shows
Speaker 2: you're in a good place. And especially by the fact,
Speaker 2: I mean, she's doing a lot of media, so kuuz
Speaker 2: dirett bear threat bear, She's doing a bunch of other stuff,
Speaker 2: but she's doing a lot of media that one is
Speaker 2: hyper friendly and two that is trying to restore her base.
Speaker 2: You don't do the view as audience is majority black women,
Speaker 2: the Charlemagne, the God is majority black men. You're going
Speaker 2: to your own people saying don't forget to vote for me,
Speaker 2: which you should be doing. But she didn't do it beforehand,
Speaker 2: and she was not particularly that great when she did
Speaker 2: the view. Charlemine the God was okay. It was a
Speaker 2: friendly interview. We'll see how what happens on Brett Bayer.
Speaker 2: We'll see if she does Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan would
Speaker 2: be a very very insane interview because he's an audience
Speaker 2: that he's one against her into she's been super protected
Speaker 2: to now. I don't know if there's much that is
Speaker 2: going to change people's minds. A lot. I mean, there'll
Speaker 2: be a few things here or there. Here there, I
Speaker 2: mean a few voters, and that could make the difference.
Speaker 2: A lot of it is turnout, and a lot of
Speaker 2: people that I know in my real life are like,
Speaker 2: I just either want this election be over or two
Speaker 2: can we substitute, you know, for two different candidates that
Speaker 2: I'm tired of both of them.
Speaker 1: Well, I actually really like Trump.
Speaker 2: But I'm not saying it's everybody, because I know people
Speaker 2: who would literally give up their lives for Trump. I'm
Speaker 2: just saying that, like, it's not I'm not saying it's everybody,
Speaker 2: but I do know a lot of But those are
Speaker 2: also people that I know they could be waterboarded and
Speaker 2: they were still going to go out a vote. Are
Speaker 2: the people who like they just they just don't know
Speaker 2: election is happening. You would be shocked, but there's always
Speaker 2: and if you look at Poles. My favorite thing ever
Speaker 2: is like they'll be like your feelings on Trump or
Speaker 2: Harris or Biden, and they'll just be like three people
Speaker 2: like I've never heard of any of these people before,
Speaker 2: and I want to know those people so badly, Like
Speaker 2: I want to be like, how happy are you? Like,
Speaker 2: because you have to be the happiest human being in
Speaker 2: the world. You don't know what's going on, you don't care,
Speaker 2: You're living your life. I'm all about it.
Speaker 1: But like totally yeah, like we can we live in
Speaker 1: their bubble.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so nice, it's so well, it's so it's so
Speaker 2: wonderful to live in that world. But those are the
Speaker 2: people who are like, I'll vote, maybe I'll get to it,
Speaker 2: maybe election d I mentioned Chapel never voted before. Now
Speaker 2: she asked to take a stance. But there's a lot
Speaker 2: of people who are like, you know, if I show up,
Speaker 2: if I feel good that day, if it's not raining,
Speaker 2: if the kids don't bug me, you know, if my
Speaker 2: knee doesn't hurt that they'll show up and vote. You
Speaker 2: would be shocked by the numbers who were just like
Speaker 2: as in twenty sixteen, there was a great article I
Speaker 2: think it was in five point thirty eight about the
Speaker 2: number of non college educated white Americans who were not
Speaker 2: even registered to vote, and it was north of forty
Speaker 2: two million. And it is wild how many people are
Speaker 2: just not even registered. Thankfully, one of the things I
Speaker 2: think Joshapiro did poorly for Democrats is he made automatic
Speaker 2: voter registration in Pennsylvania based upon driver's licenses. Where you
Speaker 2: renew your license, we're going to get a license, you
Speaker 2: have to register to vote. I think that's partially response
Speaker 2: for the surge and Republican voting is a bunch of
Speaker 2: people without, you know, non college educated whites who were
Speaker 2: apathetic or now actually registered. About whether you like it
Speaker 2: or not, I will tell you a quick story. I
Speaker 2: was speaking to one of my friends in Wisconsin and
Speaker 2: he's a big Republican and he's with his two college
Speaker 2: buddies and he's like, could you please tell them. They're like,
Speaker 2: we're not going to vote because the Electoral College it
Speaker 2: doesn't mean anything anyway. I'm like, yes, if you live
Speaker 2: in California, you live with Wisconsin like a lot, and
Speaker 2: it was like ten minutes my life. No, no, like you actually,
Speaker 2: but there are those people where I'm like no, like yes,
Speaker 2: but no, because where you live it actually matters. And
Speaker 2: they were like blown away by that. So that's why
Speaker 2: when I say, like there are people who don't like
Speaker 2: Trump or Horse or people of course who do love them,
Speaker 2: but they're just apathetic to the whole process.
Speaker 1: But it's also like, I don't know how people couldn't
Speaker 1: be motivated in this political environment, Like we've had one
Speaker 1: of the candidates to assassination attempts, We've got like sky
Speaker 1: high inflation, we've got you know, like world war potential
Speaker 1: breaking out, and like the Middle East and Europe. You know,
Speaker 1: it's like you go down the list of like you've got,
Speaker 1: you know, basically an invasion happening at the southern border.
Speaker 1: It's like what at this point, you know, what does
Speaker 1: it take to get these people motivated? If they're not
Speaker 1: motivated right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's the feeling that they don't think that
Speaker 2: the system will help them. Yeah, Like that's I just
Speaker 2: don't think the system will help them, and That's why
Speaker 2: it's so important to pick upon them. You know, the
Speaker 2: non college educated white vote is the most Republican vote
Speaker 2: there is. As far as I know, and maybe I
Speaker 2: am wrong, I know of at least a dozen organizations
Speaker 2: that focus and target black voters and black voter turnout
Speaker 2: and Hispanic go to turnout for both Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker 2: There's none that exists for non college educated whites, and
Speaker 2: they are the biggest group. And I've been saying this.
Speaker 2: I said this to a couple people within the Trump universe,
Speaker 2: but like there are like six or seven, sorry, there's
Speaker 2: twenty million. Rather twenty million people in this country who
Speaker 2: live in mobile homes and mobile home communities definitely look
Speaker 2: down upon. They call them white trailer trash and all
Speaker 2: the rest of it. But they are under a constant
Speaker 2: threat where they don't own the property they live on.
Speaker 2: They just own the mobile home and as a lot
Speaker 2: of corporate about of companies have bought those properties and
Speaker 2: are increasing rates and literally leaving people homeless. The biggest
Speaker 2: state for people who live in mobile homes are Florida, Georgia,
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and then Pennsylvania that's all
Speaker 2: those important states in the country. Having a message specifically
Speaker 2: tailored to them wouldn't have hurt them in this election cycle.
Speaker 2: And micro targeting to communities that are super lower pensity.
Speaker 2: Now Trump's trying to do that with young men, men
Speaker 2: vote less than women do in young men, especially by
Speaker 2: doing these podcasts, by going to do these interviews. It's
Speaker 2: just a matter of wrangling to the polls could be hard,
Speaker 2: and that's really where the whole gamble is. I don't
Speaker 2: think Trump had another choice. I don't think there was
Speaker 2: another group people he could have gone to. I just
Speaker 2: hope that the ground game is so sufficient that it
Speaker 2: could bring them, because that's the big question.
Speaker 1: Well, we've also seen, you know, Scott Pressler tweet about
Speaker 1: sort of even just try to reach the Amish community.
Speaker 2: This drives me crazy. Wait, can I talk about the
Speaker 2: Amage for one second? You canh God, Okay, So here's
Speaker 2: the problem with the Amash community. There are a lot
Speaker 2: of Amish, especially in Pennsylvania, but most cannot vote because
Speaker 2: they are too young. Right, that's the first problem. Because
Speaker 2: the Amage have an average of six children per woman,
Speaker 2: most of them are super super young, and that is
Speaker 2: what like a major problem was of those who are
Speaker 2: registered to vote. I'm going to bring out the actual
Speaker 2: numbers for you because there's a great university that studies Amish.
Speaker 2: Turnout the Amish. There's two major settlements, one being in
Speaker 2: Lancaster County, which is the big one, and one being
Speaker 2: around Mercer County is the second one of those. Here's
Speaker 2: the actual numbers. So in twenty twenty, right in Lancaster,
Speaker 2: let's go back, sorry to two thousand and four. Bush
Speaker 2: put a big effort in to get the homage to vote.
Speaker 2: They were in two one thousand and four there were
Speaker 2: ten thousand, three hundred and fifty eligible Amish voters in
Speaker 2: Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. Two thousand were registered to vote and
Speaker 2: thirteen hundred did. In twenty sixteen, there were fifteen thousand
Speaker 2: eligible Amish voters. Two thousand were registered, so no jump
Speaker 2: in registration over the course of those twelve years, despite
Speaker 2: the population increasing by fifty percent, and only one thousand
Speaker 2: did and that was an even further decrease. There was
Speaker 2: a big effort put by the Republicans between sixteen and
Speaker 2: twenty to register and engage Amash voters. The number of
Speaker 2: Amish who were eligible to vote in Lancaster in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty were seventeen thousand, up two thousand from four years prior.
Speaker 2: Four thousand this time a registered to vote, so it
Speaker 2: doubled the amount of people registered to vote in the
Speaker 2: Amish community, and three thousand did so. Seventy percent seventy
Speaker 2: one percent of all eligible Amish voters did in fact vote.
Speaker 2: That's fantastic. In a very very tight election. There could
Speaker 2: be six or seven thousand registered Amashed by this election
Speaker 2: in Lancaster and statewide it could be like eight thousand.
Speaker 2: There just aren't enough of them yet. Who are eighteen
Speaker 2: that will put it over the edge? I mean in
Speaker 2: a very close election, if it's like a thousand votes,
Speaker 2: if it's Florid in twenty one hundred percent. But the
Speaker 2: numbers just aren't there yet. They will get there in
Speaker 2: a decade to two decades, because no how much population
Speaker 2: is more than I think it's tripled since I was born,
Speaker 2: or more than actually triples since I was born, And
Speaker 2: they're very important, especially in the Midwest. We're just not
Speaker 2: at that point yet.
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Speaker 1: When you're these campaigns, you've got a finite amount of
Speaker 1: resources and you're trying to figure out, you know, who
Speaker 1: do you invest your money in in terms of you know,
Speaker 1: who do you think you can actually get to turn out?
Speaker 1: And you know, so you're you're trying to figure out
Speaker 1: where to spend that money and spend.
Speaker 2: A lot for them, because they're got to be big.
Speaker 2: And the good thing is that younger Amish vote and
Speaker 2: older Amish don't so because they're very, very big belief
Speaker 2: in the separation of church and state. So but the
Speaker 2: younger Amash will be around for a long time and
Speaker 2: they are they're breeding like rabbits, so God bless them.
Speaker 1: You know, I've been told by you know, individuals who
Speaker 1: I really trust looking at data every day to really
Speaker 1: look at the Jewish vote and that they believe Jewish
Speaker 1: voters it's going to be a big surprise on November fifth.
Speaker 1: You know, what do you make of that? And are
Speaker 1: there any other groups of voters you think that we're
Speaker 1: that are going to surprise us?
Speaker 2: So the Jewish vote is changing one because of demographics,
Speaker 2: because secular Jews do not have kids and have not
Speaker 2: had kids for a very long time, going back to
Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies where their fertility rates were under replacement levels,
Speaker 2: and Orthodox and hasidam especially have large, large families like
Speaker 2: on par with the Amish. For the Hassidems and Hasidic vote,
Speaker 2: you know, ninety percent Republican. You can look at Borough Park, Brooklyn,
Speaker 2: which is in central Brooklyn, you'll see a bright red
Speaker 2: spot in two thousand and eight, and if you go
Speaker 2: two thousand and sorry, in twenty twelve, tw sixteen, twenty
Speaker 2: bright red spot keeps growing and growing and growing and growing.
Speaker 2: That is in part the population change of Ustidham Jews,
Speaker 2: you know, by just fertility and growth, So that will
Speaker 2: definitely change the overall number at the end of the day.
Speaker 2: The problem is most Jewish voters are just in fact liberal.
Speaker 2: They are just liberal, and they are liberal on everything
Speaker 2: from abortion to you know, taxes, to everything. Some have
Speaker 2: been red pilled. I have a friend who's a celebrity
Speaker 2: and he's talking to a very very well known Jewish
Speaker 2: celebrity who's very liberal, and they were like, Wow, they
Speaker 2: really hate us, and we're having a wake up moment.
Speaker 2: If it could if right now. In pollingd can Pew Research.
Speaker 2: Pew Research has the largest sample size of any poles,
Speaker 2: over ten thousands, so they have a very good sample
Speaker 2: of Jewish voters. They have Trump doing the best of
Speaker 2: any Republican since nineteen eighty eight with a Jewish vote.
Speaker 2: Yet and still that only means he's getting like thirty
Speaker 2: five thirty six percent. If he can achieve that, If
Speaker 2: he can get to thirty seven percent, call that a win.
Speaker 2: The good thing is in that demographic. While there are
Speaker 2: a lot of Jews in Pennsylvania, they don't really exist
Speaker 2: in other swing states and large populations. They're mostly concerted
Speaker 2: in like New York, New Jersey, Florida. So we'll see.
Speaker 2: I don't have a huge, huge hope that they will
Speaker 2: vote in large numbers. The other vote that I would
Speaker 2: be very interested in right now is the Asian vote
Speaker 2: because it is very small, but it is growing. They
Speaker 2: have the highest number one group of immigrants, the legal
Speaker 2: immigrants anywhere. We're Asians and have been Asians for over
Speaker 2: ten years. People think it's Hispanics, but it's not. Viennese
Speaker 2: Koreans tend to track right. Indians Bangladeshi's are very very
Speaker 2: left wing. It will be interesting to see does Kamala
Speaker 2: engage the Indian community being an Indian woman. Does that
Speaker 2: change anything? Does it to change anything that she's you know,
Speaker 2: part Asian when she decides to claim it. That will
Speaker 2: be interesting, especially in places like Orange County, California, and
Speaker 2: other down ballot effects I'm not so sure it's going
Speaker 2: to really change most of the swing states, especially because
Speaker 2: the rust Belt states and the East coast North Carolina,
Speaker 2: Georgia states, they are still ninety to ninety five percent
Speaker 2: black white electors, so they are very very kind of stagnant.
Speaker 2: More important will be turned out than micro targeting certain
Speaker 2: communities like that. Maybe the Lumbee tribe will be interesting
Speaker 2: in North Carolina because they were It's an Indian tribe
Speaker 2: that was very democratic, and they moved super Republican, like
Speaker 2: in the blink of an eye for Trump. It went
Speaker 2: from like literally twenty percent for Romney to like seventy
Speaker 2: five percent for Trump over to election cycles.
Speaker 1: And it'll be interesting to see what the Muslim vote
Speaker 1: looks like in Michigan, Yes.
Speaker 2: And Georgia. There are two hundred thousand Muslims in Georgia.
Speaker 2: And the Care poll, which I said to Van Jones
Speaker 2: on CNN, the Care poll that found only fifty two
Speaker 2: percent of black Muslims are supporting Harris. And I think
Speaker 2: in one state Harris was actually in third place with
Speaker 2: the muzzle vote. I forget which one it is, but
Speaker 2: Stein was ahead of her. So that will be very
Speaker 2: very important. Not just in Michigan, but there's a lot
Speaker 2: of Black well, there's a lot of Muslims throughout the
Speaker 2: whole South. There's a lot of Muslims in North Carolina.
Speaker 2: You have to remember since Sign eleven and we have
Speaker 2: more than doubled our Muslim population through immigration in this country.
Speaker 2: And it's not going to be very very long before
Speaker 2: Muslims will populate Jews in America. So our politics will change.
Speaker 2: I will say this if Trump, if Trump wins, and
Speaker 2: wins in part because of Michigan, because of the Muslim vote,
Speaker 2: you will never see it will be the end of
Speaker 2: bipartisanship over Israel. Like in the blink of night. You'll
Speaker 2: never see a Democrat just rallying for Israel like they
Speaker 2: do now.
Speaker 1: And that'll be because not because Muslims will be voting
Speaker 1: for Trump, but just they sit it out right.
Speaker 2: Some will vote for Trump. We saw the Muslim mayor
Speaker 2: of that city in Michigan, Indorsetown, who's a Democrat. Some
Speaker 2: of them will some of them will vote for Trump for sure.
Speaker 2: Some of them will vote for Sign, some of them
Speaker 2: will set it out. It'll be a mixed bag. But
Speaker 2: it's not insignificant that the Muslim mayor of his town that,
Speaker 2: by the way, was like all white twenty years ago.
Speaker 2: That's how fast the demographics have changed. That they're endorsing
Speaker 2: Trump and they're a Democrat and in a democratic state
Speaker 2: where they could probably have a long political future running
Speaker 2: for Congress, running for this, running for that, and they're saying, no,
Speaker 2: it's really important to respect to my people's values. That
Speaker 2: means that that it's actually real when someone's willing to
Speaker 2: give up their political future, which most politicians period aren't
Speaker 2: going willing to do to say that out loud.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, he's a city of ham Trump.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not on big city, but it's still americally there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember. And then well, so yeah, when you
Speaker 1: were talking about the Jewish people being red pilled, I
Speaker 1: was thinking about Bill Ackman too, who you know, really
Speaker 1: kind I went to the right after October seventh. And
Speaker 1: then now he's like totally based and sometimes he tweets things, uh.
Speaker 2: Oh, I love those people.
Speaker 1: I've been times I'm like, no, I don't know if
Speaker 1: we have all that evidence. I'm like, maybe you should
Speaker 1: just like give it a minute. But some of the tweets,
Speaker 1: I'm like, whoa, we really went from zero to sixty
Speaker 1: like very fast.
Speaker 2: Here, well it's like nine eleven eleven. Yeah, a lot
Speaker 2: of people change the nine to eleven. I know people
Speaker 2: will change because the whole transgender kids thing. But like,
Speaker 2: you know, I have a really good Jewish friend who was,
Speaker 2: you know, super liberal, like I've donated to Obama and
Speaker 2: Hill are a very wealthy Jewish friend, I mean was
Speaker 2: a max out donor, and she her and her husband
Speaker 2: were just like we made all the wrong friends, like
Speaker 2: these people really all hate us. And I'm like yeah,
Speaker 2: like you know, a lot of times, a lot of activists,
Speaker 2: like in the ADL, we're saying, oh, it's really white
Speaker 2: Christian America who is your enemy. You know, we can
Speaker 2: make all these unholy alliances with all these groups, all
Speaker 2: these far left groups, and all these immigrant right groups,
Speaker 2: all these black groups, all these Black Lives Matter groups,
Speaker 2: and they're going to be our natural allies because White
Speaker 2: Christian America is really your enemy. And they like turned
Speaker 2: right around. They were like wait a second, what And
Speaker 2: in the end they were like it doesn't like it.
Speaker 2: These people hate us, And I'm like, yeah, you were
Speaker 2: never going to be excluded from the whole like uh, decolonization.
Speaker 2: Uh effort on the part of the far left, who
Speaker 2: hate Christianity, they hate the West, they hate Judaism, they
Speaker 2: hate capitalism, Like you're every one of these things and
Speaker 2: you were not going to be exempt because you know
Speaker 2: you have a Star of David instead of across.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, like gays for Palestine. You know, oh
Speaker 1: my god.
Speaker 2: Some people are so lost, like you're like, there is.
Speaker 1: No dude, you know that that's not going to work
Speaker 1: out for your.
Speaker 2: I mean I would literally page these people to go
Speaker 2: to these places and just like, hey, just hang out
Speaker 2: on any round for like a month, ye on your last.
Speaker 1: It's like, dude, It's that's not uh, that's not how
Speaker 1: it works there. So you like you can go to
Speaker 1: Israel and no problem. But you know, good.
Speaker 2: Blue and it's just it's it's this insistency to hate
Speaker 2: everything that is a Western value and act a lot.
Speaker 2: The essential problem all of with modern day thinking is
Speaker 2: that people think everything good in our society one is
Speaker 2: the natural state of order, and two comes really easy.
Speaker 2: And people, because we've become so gluttonous on our own success,
Speaker 2: people do not realize how fragile society is and how
Speaker 2: much time and work it took to build these enormously efficient,
Speaker 2: free stables, peaceful, wealthy societies, and if it goes away,
Speaker 2: it's not like it just automatically pops back up. It
Speaker 2: takes enormous sacrifice. And always my big fear is that
Speaker 2: we've just become too fat and lazy to preserve our
Speaker 2: own society, which is what we're seeing a lot in Europe,
Speaker 2: and we really can't being America. We can't be the place.
Speaker 1: That does that well. And before we go, we'll end
Speaker 1: on this, which is you know, probably not a happy
Speaker 1: point in them. But I think, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: with all the talk of January sixth, which has just
Speaker 1: been you know, absolutely relentless Trump Holiday, if if Trump wins,
Speaker 1: If Trump wins, I worry Democrats are going to make
Speaker 1: that look like child's play. And you already have people
Speaker 1: like Rep. Jamie Ruskin and some of these top Democrats
Speaker 1: sort of like sowing doubt about if they're going to accept,
Speaker 1: you know, the outcome of the election if Trump wins.
Speaker 1: So I worry that, uh, you know, we will see
Speaker 1: like mass writing like we saw during the George Floyd riots.
Speaker 1: And you know, yeah I didn't because it was unexpected though, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is why they should do it. I think
Speaker 2: a lot of people do expect it. The betting markets
Speaker 2: certainly say Trump's going to win. I think people are
Speaker 2: I think the Trump de arrangement thing is real. But
Speaker 2: I think for the Norman people, they've just been exhausted
Speaker 2: by it. I think they're genuinely and totally exhausted by the
Speaker 2: state of high paper anxiety. I think it really has
Speaker 2: worn people to the very very brim, whether like I
Speaker 2: just can't do it anymore. So, I don't know, And
Speaker 2: I think that the given the most Democrats are moving
Speaker 2: to the right on a number of issues, including Kamalo,
Speaker 2: who's like disavowing everything she did in twenty twenty and
Speaker 2: seven nineteen, I don't know if we're going to have
Speaker 2: a lot of Democratic politicians run and do it. But
Speaker 2: we'll see. I don't. I don't. I don't. I'm going
Speaker 2: to be more of an optimist than you on that.
Speaker 1: That Oh all right, well, then we are ending on it. Well,
Speaker 1: I think Trump's gonna win too, I do. I always
Speaker 1: insert the caveat of just you know, they're better at
Speaker 1: the machinery of elections than we are, and they've had
Speaker 1: a big cash advantage.
Speaker 2: Right, and they haves and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but I do I do think. I do
Speaker 1: believe that the polls are underestimating a support because we've
Speaker 1: seen pretty consistently they've done that. And I've also just
Speaker 1: you know, heard and I mean just anecdotally, which you know,
Speaker 1: you can only take that so far. But of just
Speaker 1: people who have previously really hated Trumping, like I'm voting
Speaker 1: for him, Like I think there'll be people holding their nose.
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people, but a lot of
Speaker 2: people people, a lot of people. A lot of people
Speaker 2: do things because it feels right, like the right thing
Speaker 2: to do, like supporting Ukraine even though they can't find
Speaker 2: on a map, or like, you know, whatever is the thing.
Speaker 2: It's a matter of just the person does, like the
Speaker 2: Chapel Rome voter who has never voted in her life before,
Speaker 2: or the person who just voted in twenty twenty just
Speaker 2: to say I did it, I stuck into fascism. Do
Speaker 2: they still show up? You know, That's the big question,
Speaker 2: and is as Trump has become more normalized, you know,
Speaker 2: especially to minority communities who thought that he was who
Speaker 2: was told that he was told he was a racist
Speaker 2: beyond belief? Does that tamper or the energy down to say,
Speaker 2: you know what, if I miss it, my life's not
Speaker 2: going to end. We're not going to put into concentration camps,
Speaker 2: as the Love says, We're not going to be our
Speaker 2: concerts being destroyed. I could set this one out. I'm
Speaker 2: not passionate. I have to go vote to stop the
Speaker 2: next hitler. I don't know if those voters are as
Speaker 2: intense as they used to be.
Speaker 1: Well, the irony is, you know, you look at Pulling
Speaker 1: during COVID and I think it was almost half of
Speaker 1: Democrats or I can't remember the specific number off the
Speaker 1: top of my head, wanted to put like unvaccinated people
Speaker 1: like me in camps. So it's like, you know, like,
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure you would do that to us. Yes,
Speaker 1: and lastly before it is pretty remarkable. If Trump does win,
Speaker 1: which I pray to God he does that, it's not
Speaker 1: just defeating Kamala Harris. I mean it's defeating almost the
Speaker 1: entirety of the media. It's having almost been assassinated twice,
Speaker 1: it's have almost been thrown in jail, almost bankrupted almost
Speaker 1: you know, you have big tech again again. It is
Speaker 1: pretty remarkable. It's like a repeat, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: Like it is about something bigger, I think than just
Speaker 1: defeating Kamala Harris.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also a change in how Republicans are
Speaker 2: thought of by a lot of people. It's an energized
Speaker 2: base of work in class voters. It may be engaged
Speaker 2: minorities in a different way. There's still a lot of
Speaker 2: work to do with college educated whites. There's a lot
Speaker 2: of work to do still with minorities. There's a lot
Speaker 2: of work to do with engaging non college educated white voters.
Speaker 2: But this he's definitely done far more work than we've
Speaker 2: seen in the last you know, even his first two
Speaker 2: campaigns and definitely his first one with all of these groups.
Speaker 2: But those kinds of things take time, and luckily part
Speaker 2: of it is because of the institutional party doing it,
Speaker 2: and a lot of it is organic. You know, you
Speaker 2: look at the Bronx. The Bronx doesn't have an actual
Speaker 2: Republican party. I mean it's a name only. They don't
Speaker 2: have money, they don't have you know, labor. They have
Speaker 2: won elected Republican all the Bronx, and yet Republican margins
Speaker 2: are growing in every subsequent election in the Bronx. I'm
Speaker 2: almost entirely black and Latino and Jewish if they're white.
Speaker 2: Jewish County a very popular one. It's grown every single
Speaker 2: and it's out Democrats. That will be interesting for political nerds.
Speaker 2: It will be interesting to see like this AOC's district
Speaker 2: under twenty are a lot of super democratic tasors really
Speaker 2: moving to the right. That will be a very big
Speaker 2: telltale sign for the future post this election and post Trump.
Speaker 1: One day and where can people go in? You're a
Speaker 1: very smart guy. I follow you on Twitter. You always
Speaker 1: have great information and you've been killing it on CNN.
Speaker 1: They make me hopefully where could people find your work on.
Speaker 2: Whether it's at Ryan or Dusky. Where I do most
Speaker 2: money social media. And then I have a substack called
Speaker 2: the National Populist Newsletter. It's like five dollars a month.
Speaker 2: I do a weekly newsletter roundup of the week's news
Speaker 2: that's about populism and nationalism. And then I try to
Speaker 2: get at least one post done during the week about
Speaker 2: the election or other countries' elections and some interesting information
Speaker 2: to nerd out on if you like politics.
Speaker 1: And then you have the seventeen seventy six past.
Speaker 2: Well we're just we just came out to say number
Speaker 2: twenty four the win. It's a school board pack where
Speaker 2: you're doing thirty seven elections for school board this November
Speaker 2: in Maryland and Arizona. So you can go to seventeen
Speaker 2: seventy six Project pacpacpack dot com, look at our endorsed candidates,
Speaker 2: support them if you live in their districts. And we've
Speaker 2: done over five or six hundred school board elections in
Speaker 2: the last few years. So it's great.
Speaker 1: That's really important because I don't know how many times
Speaker 1: people have gone to vote, particularly you know in primaries.
Speaker 1: But also and you have no idea who these people
Speaker 1: are there, you know, and so yeah, and so it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, you're having to take a lot of time,
Speaker 1: like am I on Google trying to figure out who
Speaker 1: these people are before voting.
Speaker 2: If you are, if you are a Republican for the future,
Speaker 2: if you want to change one voting habit, start voting
Speaker 2: from the bottom of your ballot and go up that way.
Speaker 2: You don't drop off because a lot of people go
Speaker 2: they vote for president and they walk away and they
Speaker 2: miss those really important local elections. Go vote from the
Speaker 2: bottom of the ballot and vote up and start with
Speaker 2: your school board. It will actually change your local community
Speaker 2: way more than whoever the president is.
Speaker 1: Well, there you have it, so we're ending on a
Speaker 1: positive note. This is good.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Lisa, and this.
Speaker 1: Is so fascinating. I appreciate your time, Thank you those
Speaker 1: Ryan Gerdusky, Appreciate him for taking the time to come
Speaker 1: on the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening
Speaker 1: every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week.
Speaker 1: I want to thank John Cassio and my producer for
Speaker 1: putting the show together. Until next time,