WEBVTT - The Truth with Lisa Boothe: How Will the Votes Fall with Ryan Girdusky 0:00:05.960 --> 0:00:08.879 You, guys, we are less than three weeks away from 0:00:09.000 --> 0:00:13.280 election day. What will happen? Where does this race stand? 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:16.200 You look at the real clear of politics averages. You 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:17.680 look at a lot of these polls that come out. 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:19.880 I mean, it looks like this race is a coin flip. 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:22.959 It looks like all these battleground states are largely within 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:25.439 the margin of error. Then you look at things like 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.680 the betting odds and the betting ods have Donald Trump 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:32.400 winning by almost sixty one percent. And then you also 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.720 look at some of the actions that Kamala Harris and 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:37.800 her campaign are taking. She's had a complete shift in 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:40.960 her media strategy. She's going to be going on Fox 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:42.960 News with Brett bharrsch will have done that interview that 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:45.840 will err by the time you're hearing this. She's also 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:48.760 made a concerted effort to sit down with liberal media, 0:00:48.800 --> 0:00:52.000 which would elude and give the idea that she is 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:54.880 maybe worried about her base. We have seen her recently 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:57.840 come out with this opportunity agenda for black men, basically 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:01.040 trying to buy their votes, including legalized marijuana, which I 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:03.280 think says a lot about how she've used black men. 0:01:03.960 --> 0:01:06.280 We've seen Barack Obama come out and try to shame 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:10.199 black men the whole Joe Biden's strategy, Oh you ain't 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.320 black if you vote for Donald Trump. That all speaks 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:17.480 to me of desperation. So is the polling true? Are 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:20.920 these polls true that we're saying, and also are there 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:23.440 any groups of voters that we should be watching for? 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.320 Are there any groups of voters that will surprise us 0:01:26.720 --> 0:01:29.240 on election Day? We're going to talk to a numbers guy. 0:01:29.280 --> 0:01:32.800 He's constantly crunching the numbers. His name is Ryan Gerdusky. 0:01:32.959 --> 0:01:36.440 He founded the seventeen seventy six Project. It is a 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:41.160 pack dedicated to school board races, very important looking at 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:45.160 locally from the ground up in and elections across America. 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.840 He also has a newsletter called the National Populist Newsletter. 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.880 It's on substack. You can follow that where he breaks 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:53.920 down a lot of the numbers where he's looking at 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.800 races both here in the United States as well as 0:01:56.840 --> 0:01:59.960 globally as well. But he really digs into the numbers. 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.480 So I think you're really going to enjoy this conversation 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.120 kind of nerding out a little bit for the next hour. 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:07.160 But before we get to Ryan, I want to tell 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.160 you a little bit about IFCJ it's really important. October 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:12.960 seventh was the one year mark of the worst massacre 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.880 of the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Twelve hundred Israelis 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:19.640 were murdered and more than two hundred and fifty taken hostage. 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:22.639 The war in Israel rages on today. Israel and the 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:25.359 Jewish people are facing attacks from enemies on all sides 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:29.120 seeking Israel's destruction. The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:31.920 is on the ground providing food, shelter, and safety to 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:34.799 those in need during this crisis. Since the war started, 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:38.080 there were reservists every day, Israeli citizens who have left 0:02:38.080 --> 0:02:41.320 families behind to serve their country, soldiers who have been injured, 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.040 and their families need support. Your gift of one hundred 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:47.080 and fifty dollars today helps the Fellowship provide food and 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.640 other necessities to these families to help them survive, and 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:53.360 thanks to a generous Fellowship supporter, your gift will be 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:56.200 matched to double its impact. Join us and letting those 0:02:56.200 --> 0:02:59.079 families know that listeners like you stand with Israel. Call 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:01.360 to make your one hundred fifty dollars gift right now 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:05.239 at eight eight eight four eight eight IFCJ. That's eight 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.280 eight eight four eight eight four three two five, or 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:11.600 you can go online to support IFCJ dot org to 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:18.359 give that's one word support IFCJ dot org. Ryan, it's 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.640 great to have you on the show I've been watching 0:03:20.760 --> 0:03:24.119 on CNN. You've been doing a great job. It's sort 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:27.679 of interesting to see people's heads explosed when explode when 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.200 you when you face them with the facts. So you're 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:31.000 doing a great job. 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:33.040 Thank you. Well. 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:35.760 I wanted to, you know, sort of big picture, where 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.520 do you think this election stands today? 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:42.880 It's so razor like thin, like the margins, And I 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.480 don't know whether there are parts of me that sit 0:03:45.480 --> 0:03:48.040 there and say it's razor thin because polsters are very 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.000 afraid of getting burnt like they got in the last 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:53.760 two elections, especially in twenty twenty not twenty twenty two. 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:56.920 I'm talking about like the presidential elections. Every time Trump's 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.560 on the ballot, and there are so part of me 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:03.040 says they're all worried about being wrong, so they're playing 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.040 it safe. And then another part of me says that, 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.360 you know, if you look at a lot of these polls, 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:15.040 you're seeing these huge margins for Harris among seniors among 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:19.000 college educated whites, and frankly, you saw those exact numbers 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.960 for both Hillary and Biden and neither one ended up 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:26.000 being true. So is it that there's an enthusiasm gap 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.120 as far as who wants to talk to a polster 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.880 and is throwing their weight behind it? Now, there is 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:33.400 big excitement for Harris. It's not like it doesn't exist. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.120 And you're seeing that in the first day voting in Virginia, 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:38.839 the first day voting in Georgia, first day of voting 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:43.440 appsent emails in Pennsylvania. Democrats are are showing up in 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:48.640 really big numbers. But is it just that it's very 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:52.240 enthused Democrats are showing up in very big numbers, or 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:57.480 is it that the overall population is showing up? Kind 0:04:57.520 --> 0:05:00.360 of I kind of venture on the fact is people 0:05:00.360 --> 0:05:02.360 who would have been voting no matter what are just 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.400 voting first day because they, you know, watch Rachel Maddowen 0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:10.320 live to hey Donald Trump. So we'll wait, we have 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:12.200 to wait and see. I mean, it's not there's no 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.600 clear answer. What I would love if anyone listening to 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:19.400 your podcasts or anybody else could do this, if you could, 0:05:19.440 --> 0:05:22.640 if anyone could find out like in Pennsylvania mail in ballots, 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:26.440 that pennsylvani is one of the very very few states 0:05:26.520 --> 0:05:29.080 in the country that is a swing state that also 0:05:29.160 --> 0:05:33.160 has party registration. That if they could find out if 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.560 these Republicans who are turning in their ballots and requesting 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:38.960 ballots are low perpensity or high propensity voters, that would 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.839 really give us a much better number as to what's 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:44.640 really going on than just looking at the estimates. So 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:49.040 we don't know people's voting history. And are we Democrats 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:52.360 are hoping that Republicans high early turnout is cannibalizing their 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:55.400 election day turnout. But we don't know that to be true. 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:57.280 We don't know that not to be true. We really 0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:58.080 have no idea. 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:00.200 Well, so dig into that a little bit because I 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.799 know you've been posting and following. You know, the data 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:07.280 were available with st ballot requests as well as returns 0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:11.440 in different states. I guess you know you kind of 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.279 alluded to it a little bit before. But you know, 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:17.080 what does that data tell you? Does it tell you anything? 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:18.800 You know, what are you trying to learn from that? 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:23.679 Right? There are seven big swing swing states, right, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:27.839 North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So eight eight big 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:33.480 swing states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada have a 0:06:33.600 --> 0:06:37.680 party registration. The other states do not. So when you're 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.680 looking at Georgia, Georgia is the only one of those 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:44.600 states that reports racial voting by by black, white, Hispanic, YadA, YadA, YadA. 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:48.440 Aside from that, everything is just geographical locations that were 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:51.240 really estimating it. Our big Trump counties coming out are 0:06:51.279 --> 0:06:55.680 big Biden counties coming out. We don't know party affiliation. 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.680 But we'll go to Pennsylvania because Pennsylvania, while they do 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.240 not have early in person voting, they do have a 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:05.080 very robust absentee mail in situation. So as of right now, 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:08.599 Republicans are just shy of a half a million ballad 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:14.800 requests yesterday, This is fresh off the presses yesterday on Tuesday. Sorry, 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:17.880 this morning, on Wednesday, October sixteenth, at eight thirty, they 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:22.000 posted the update and there were thirteen thousand, eight hundred 0:07:22.080 --> 0:07:27.040 new absentee ballot request for Republicans. There were ten thousand, 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:31.680 eight hundred for Democrats. Republicans posted nearly three thousand more 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:35.440 absentee ballot requests than Democrats did. That is the highest 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:39.400 margin for Republicans over Democrats in at least ten years. 0:07:39.440 --> 0:07:41.920 On a single day that is never that doesn't happen. 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:46.320 Republicans are about two hundred and ten thousand more absenty 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.520 ballot requests then they were in twenty twenty two, and 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:52.960 they are about one hundred and fifty thousand more than 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:56.840 Democrats were in twenty twenty two. That's a pretty good number. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:58.960 And I use twenty twenty two two because it was 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:03.720 in COVID, you know, twenty twenty was. Republicans are going 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.560 to get very very close. They only have eleven more days. 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.320 They're probably going to be if I had to take 0:08:09.360 --> 0:08:11.920 an estimated guess, they're probably going to be about one 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:15.200 hundred and fifty to one hundred thousand votes short of 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.760 their twenty twenty numbers. Democrats will be about eight hundred 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:20.640 thousand short of their twenty twenty numbers. Now that doesn't 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.440 mean Democrats are not going to go vote, they're just 0:08:23.800 --> 0:08:28.040 not voting via absentee. So what does that look like 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:31.760 as far as as far as the election goes. Banking 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:35.240 your vote early is very, very very important. We just 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:39.600 don't know if those voters for Republicans are lower propensity 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.280 voters who would have voted anyway or sorry, who would 0:08:42.280 --> 0:08:45.000 have not voted, were not guaranteed to show up to vote, 0:08:45.160 --> 0:08:47.240 versus those who are always guaranteed to vote. I will 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.559 say this, as far as ballots being returned, Democrats are 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:53.920 just killing it. When it comes to returning ballots on time. 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:57.920 Democrats have a very, very very sizeable lead to Republicans 0:08:57.960 --> 0:09:00.959 of over a quarter of a million ballots being returned 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.360 so far, that could all change. And as long as 0:09:04.360 --> 0:09:08.359 Republicans keep out pacing Democrats. If that happens with requests, 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.480 then the potential for them to run very close to 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:15.560 dead even or at least within a four hundred thousand 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:20.800 voter difference is very important for Republicans in Pennsylvania. 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.760 And it's like, but if they're requesting ballots, you've got 0:09:24.800 --> 0:09:26.800 to chase those ballots and make sure they turn them 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:27.719 in right now. 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.280 But you can always turn them in on election day. 0:09:30.320 --> 0:09:31.920 And I've heard that from a number of people in 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:35.559 Pennsylvania who are like, I'm requesting my ballot early so 0:09:35.640 --> 0:09:37.000 I have it and then I'm going to hand it 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.560 in on election day. That's totally legal, perfectly fine. People 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.120 do that. I always like to sit there and say, 0:09:43.200 --> 0:09:45.679 if you know yourself and you're not a if you're 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.000 somebody who likes to sleep in, you've got a baby, 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.680 your car is not reliable, you don't like the rain 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:52.840 or the snow or whatever the weather situation could be, 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:55.520 just go hand in your ballot early, like, just go 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:57.959 vote early, get it out of the way, and bank 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.880 your vote, because you would be by the amount of 0:10:00.880 --> 0:10:05.000 people who either think that they have voted and haven't 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.120 or have every good intention to go vote, and then 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.480 they just forget, They just forget on Electionally. I worked 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:12.240 because I worked in campaigns for a long time. I 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:15.320 worked for Jdvanca Super Pac. I had a candidate one 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.520 time running for Congress. This is back in twenty ten, 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:19.480 who went through his voter history and where like, you 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:22.559 didn't vote in like two of the last three presidential elections. 0:10:22.559 --> 0:10:23.719 And he was like, yes, I did. And I was like, 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:26.640 I'm looking at your history. You did not vote. And 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:30.200 there's so many people who don't vote and they think 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:34.840 they do. Chapel Roone, that pop star right now. She 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:38.080 sat there and she said about voting and YadA, YadA, YadA, 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:39.720 and someone pulled up her voting history and she had 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:43.680 never voted, which is very normal. But like to said, 0:10:43.679 --> 0:10:45.679 there in a ten year old like a political activist 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:48.560 and you never voted is more common than you would expect. 0:10:48.800 --> 0:10:51.000 So let's go to Georgia for a second. So Georgie 0:10:51.080 --> 0:10:53.679 is a very important state. Obviously, it's a state that 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.840 Biden barely won. It's a state that Trump could easily win, 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.600 and he's been ahead in the polls. A big problem 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:06.960 for Republicans in Georgia is that high counties with large 0:11:07.000 --> 0:11:10.360 populations of non college educated whites, a lot of counties 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:17.160 that vote heavily Republican, have absolutely horrendous, horrendous turnout. Marjorie 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:20.240 Taylor Green's district, which is the most Republican district in 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.320 the state of Georgia, had I think it was like 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.760 seventy thousand fewer votes than the city of Atlanta. Now 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:28.840 it's not that their voters don't live there, they do. 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.840 They just don't show up and they're not mobilized in 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:37.840 the way that Atlanta is the most. If Republican counties 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.360 and Republican congression districts voted at the same level Democrats did, 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.520 Trump would have won that state of Georgia by oh 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:48.520 easily over seventy thousand votes without having a convincent anybody. 0:11:49.040 --> 0:11:53.360 So as far as the raw vote goes, obviously the 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:57.520 most populated counties Fulton, Cobb to Cap Gwenette, these are 0:11:57.760 --> 0:12:00.720 very blue counties with large populations. They had the most 0:12:00.760 --> 0:12:03.439 votes that came in on the first day of early voting. 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.800 It was a record breaking day. But there's a very 0:12:05.840 --> 0:12:09.880 big caveat. In twenty twenty, half a million people had 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:14.560 already voted by absentee before they've started in person voting. 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:18.720 This time, I think like it's like twelve thousand voted absentee. 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.640 Almost nobody voted absentee by mail. Everyone was waiting to 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:24.720 vote in person. So there's a high intensity, but it's 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:27.319 they are switching just platforms. I mean, people are just 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.520 voting from absentee to mail it. 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:32.319 You know, looking at North Carolina, how do you think 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.840 Helene could impact the election? I know NPR found that 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.520 fifty two percent of the county's FEMA designated as places 0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:45.240 residents could qualify for aid. Trump one or fifty of 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:48.040 those counties overall, Right, so North, So how do you 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:51.040 think their ability to get to you know to vote. 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.640 Well, it's very very difficult to sit there and say one. 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:55.880 I genuinely don't know if we're ever going to find 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.600 out how many people or if they are not ever. 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:00.480 But we don't know as of now how many people 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.080 just died and they're gone missing, or they are moved 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:08.160 into like camp somewhere, or they're just off the grid. 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.200 I mean, we just don't know. What I have looked 0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.920 at is if you look, there's two important parts. One 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:20.319 Western North Carolina is the most liberal part of Appalachia. Right, 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:23.960 it is far more liberal than Appalachia in Virginia, West Virginia, 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:27.200 South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. It is the most liberal part 0:13:27.640 --> 0:13:30.920 in a big part because Asheville is in San Francisco 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.800 on the east coast. It has I mean, the city 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:37.800 of Asheville voted like ninety two to eight for Joe Biden, 0:13:37.960 --> 0:13:42.720 and that was completely crushed. The outsized counties in the north, 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:46.559 like Eastern area, those are the ones that were really devastated. 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:51.400 They're not that populated. So while the region as a 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:55.640 whole is very populated, the parts that were truly decimated 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:58.920 were not that populated. And when you when you look 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:03.079 at the counties of role that gave to gave votes 0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:05.400 to Biden versus those that gave to Trump. It's about 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.600 a thirty five thousand margin in favor of Biden for 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.040 the Blue counties and a thirty thousand and thirty five 0:14:11.080 --> 0:14:15.280 thousand margin for the Trump counties. It may be even 0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.880 maybe Asheville will recoup faster because it's a city and 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.800 they'll start going out to vote early. I don't know, 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:27.040 is like the answer. It shouldn't be the biggest change. 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.400 I mean that everyone affected. Everyone sits there and says, 0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:34.480 when you realize the population changes in rural black North Carolina, 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.560 how the population has shrunk when you look at the 0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.480 amount of people who have moved to the state and 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:41.760 increased voter registration, We're not a lot of people sit 0:14:41.760 --> 0:14:43.640 there and say, oh, look at twenty twenty and those 0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.280 are That's true for states that are especially stagnant in 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.640 population or maybe even shrinking a little in population. It's 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.440 not true for North Carolina, which is such a robust 0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.440 population growth, because there's about a quarter of a million 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:58.680 new voters that weren't there four years ago. What alone 0:14:58.680 --> 0:15:01.600 people just turning eighteen, but people moving from the northeast 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:06.440 during COVID that changed dramatically the makeup of North Carolina 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.480 in a lot of ways. So I don't know, it's 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.960 not I don't think as of right now it's going 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:16.760 to decide the election, simply because the Asheville population kind 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.880 of offsets the other populations. And if Western North Carolina 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.880 voted like Western Virginia, I would sit there and say, yeah, 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.280 it's so those are Republican vashion it's the most republican 0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.240 part of the state. It's frankly not the most republican 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.680 part of the state, not even close. Further Inland and 0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:34.320 into eastern North Carolina is much more Republican than Western 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:37.920 North Carolina. So I know there's a big fear of 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:40.960 the voting situation going on. I think the Republicans do 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:43.560 everything they can. I think they've changed some rules there 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:45.360 to help it make it easier for people to vote. 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.280 But we'll have to wait and see. 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:50.840 You know. One thing I think is interesting this election 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:54.920 cycle is, you know, and it seems pretty consistent in 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.600 various surveys where more voters are identifying as Republican than Democrat. 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:03.160 You know, we saw that Gallup poll not too long ago, 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:08.640 finding that by three points more voters identify as Republican 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.520 than Democrats. First time Republicans had that advantage in the 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.240 third quarter before a presidential election since nineteen ninety two. 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.240 It's hard to imagine that that won't translate into the 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:24.720 Republican Party, you know, performing that way in both presidential 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:27.160 and down ballot. But you know, how do you read that? 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.120 I mean, that is different than past elections. 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:32.720 It's very difficult. So what like the New York Times, 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:37.360 Nate Cohen, who's a very smart guy, what Ham, what 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:41.280 Nate Silver. What they're all looking at is we all 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.240 believe that there's some kind of a realignment. Right, minorities 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:49.040 are especially more Republican, and the national polling is substantially 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:52.480 better for Trump than it is for him in twenty 0:16:52.560 --> 0:16:56.600 or twenty four. The question that's on everyone's minds, and 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.400 we'll find this out after election day, is is it 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:05.560 because blue states are significantly voting more read than previous 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.680 election cycle. So I wrote this in my substack, the 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:12.360 National Populist newsletter. What they're betting on in a lot 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.480 of polls is Trump is down fourteen points in New York. 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:18.800 That's the state he lost by twenty three points. Last time, 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.680 he's down by twenty three points. In California state he 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.280 lost by twenty nine points. They're looking at these very 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:29.600 blue states Hawaii, Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:35.400 California and saying, wow, he's posting five point plus ships 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.600 largely on the back of Asian, Hispanic Jewish Orthodox Jewish 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.879 voters who am some Black voters who are just like, 0:17:42.960 --> 0:17:45.600 we are not doing this anymore, Like we've really been 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:50.320 screwed by democratic governance from the local government onwards. And 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:52.639 that could be super helpful. If you're Mike Garcia, if 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.160 you're Mike Lawler, you're hoping for these huge ships right 0:17:56.160 --> 0:18:00.320 wing because it will inevitably help you win these congressionals seats. 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:04.640 But it won't flip these states red maybe over long 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:05.120 trend lines. 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.600 It will do by the down ballot, you know, yea, 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:08.359 it helps you. 0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.800 At the same time, if suburban America is still voting 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.639 very left well, and they're increasingly moving left, white college 0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:19.960 educated voters will then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin may be too 0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:24.320 far for you to reach. And that's really where the 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:29.200 big question is is, like, is this realignment house significance realignment. 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.919 And when it comes to polls, and I mentioned this 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:35.280 before the break or sorry, before we started, was that 0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.159 if you look at poles, there's a lot of polls 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:43.720 in sixteen and in twenty that overestimated the support among 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.080 college educated whites. It's a group that both Hillary and 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:48.440 Biden won, but they didn't win them at the margins 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:51.720 that pollsters said they would in a lot of these poles. 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:54.160 If you deep dive into cross tabs, which you will 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:56.159 go insane from doing, which is why I don't suggest 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.679 because I do it all the time. You see a 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:04.040 lot of times Harris winning seniors. And I've written significantly 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.439 about this, or wrote this for the American Conservative magazine 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:09.480 and for my sub stock. The seniors are a group 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.080 that have voted Republican in every election since at least 0:19:12.119 --> 0:19:16.240 the year two thousand. There has been no break with seniors. 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.240 And actually the group underneath seniors were who would be 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.560 seniors now but weren't four and eight years ago, vote 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:25.200 more Republican than seniors now than seniors in the past. 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:28.800 So given that there should be close to no shift, 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:31.639 it's basically a very fixed group unless you've died or 0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.080 you've aged into the senior citizen category. There's not like 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:36.600 a plethora of new immigrants who are seniors who are 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.800 coming to this country and are voting. The key thing 0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:43.399 is is that they all have Harris winning this group. 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:48.160 And my belief is is that one polling is extremely expensive. 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:50.240 If for a good poster, it could cost you fifty 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:51.800 sixty thousand dollars per poll. 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:53.000 They used to work in polling. 0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.720 Yeah, it's very expensive and it's very hard to do. 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:58.679 So a lot of times pollsters will go to people 0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:02.879 that they know answer polls, and they have reported a 0:20:03.080 --> 0:20:06.760 huge swing in favor of Harris among seniors. I fundamentally 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:09.760 do not believe this to be true. That is why 0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.040 I think the polls are underestimating Trump support, just like 0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:15.800 they did four and eight years ago. That is like 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:18.720 the big fear that Harris people have. I know, I've 0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:20.800 spoken to a lot of reporters who are very familiar 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:25.120 with both parties internals. Both Trump's internals and Harris internals 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:29.000 have both respective people winning. But it's all within the 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:31.560 margin of error. It's all sitting there and saying it's 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:34.520 Harris plus one Trump plus one, which really means it 0:20:34.560 --> 0:20:37.200 could be anyone's ball game. Based upon who shows up. 0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:39.960 We've got more with Ryan, but first I want to 0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:42.720 tell you a little bit about Saber. Every twenty six seconds, 0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:45.520 violent crime takes place in the United States, and rising 0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:49.840 crime threatens families. That's why the Saber Pepper projectile launcher 0:20:49.840 --> 0:20:53.440 should be your first choice. It's the only sixty eight 0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:57.040 caliber launcher with the seven projectile capacity, offering up to 0:20:57.160 --> 0:21:00.440 forty percent more shots than other brands for super ferior 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:04.000 home defense. For nearly fifty years, Saber has been dedicated 0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.560 to making the world safer. Trusted by law enforcement and 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:12.000 millions of families, Saber provides powerful, non lethal protection both 0:21:12.040 --> 0:21:14.440 at home and on the go. For extra peace of mind, 0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:17.760 Sabers pepper sprays are ideal for on the ghost safety 0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.200 and Sabers door bars block up to six hundred and 0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:23.440 fifty pounds of force to keep intruders out. Visit Saber 0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:26.760 radio dot com or call eight four four eight two 0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:30.880 four safe to protect your family today. That's sa bre 0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:38.320 radio dot Com. That's pretty remarkable given the facts, you know. 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.000 The Trump campaign put out a memo recently talking about 0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:43.320 how since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent two 0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:49.159 hundred and forty one million dollars in untrackable media spend 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:52.119 compared to about one hundred and five million from the 0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:55.760 Trump campaign, nearly two point five to one spending advantage. 0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:59.800 And yet the Real Cleared Politics national average has her, 0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:02.720