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Speaker 1: You, guys, we are less than three weeks away from

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Speaker 1: election day. What will happen? Where does this race stand?

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Speaker 1: You look at the real clear of politics averages. You

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Speaker 1: look at a lot of these polls that come out.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it looks like this race is a coin flip.

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Speaker 1: It looks like all these battleground states are largely within

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Speaker 1: the margin of error. Then you look at things like

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Speaker 1: the betting odds and the betting ods have Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: winning by almost sixty one percent. And then you also

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Speaker 1: look at some of the actions that Kamala Harris and

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Speaker 1: her campaign are taking. She's had a complete shift in

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Speaker 1: her media strategy. She's going to be going on Fox

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Speaker 1: News with Brett bharrsch will have done that interview that

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Speaker 1: will err by the time you're hearing this. She's also

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Speaker 1: made a concerted effort to sit down with liberal media,

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Speaker 1: which would elude and give the idea that she is

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Speaker 1: maybe worried about her base. We have seen her recently

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Speaker 1: come out with this opportunity agenda for black men, basically

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Speaker 1: trying to buy their votes, including legalized marijuana, which I

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Speaker 1: think says a lot about how she've used black men.

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Speaker 1: We've seen Barack Obama come out and try to shame

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Speaker 1: black men the whole Joe Biden's strategy, Oh you ain't

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Speaker 1: black if you vote for Donald Trump. That all speaks

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Speaker 1: to me of desperation. So is the polling true? Are

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Speaker 1: these polls true that we're saying, and also are there

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Speaker 1: any groups of voters that we should be watching for?

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Speaker 1: Are there any groups of voters that will surprise us

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Speaker 1: on election Day? We're going to talk to a numbers guy.

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Speaker 1: He's constantly crunching the numbers. His name is Ryan Gerdusky.

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Speaker 1: He founded the seventeen seventy six Project. It is a

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Speaker 1: pack dedicated to school board races, very important looking at

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Speaker 1: locally from the ground up in and elections across America.

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Speaker 1: He also has a newsletter called the National Populist Newsletter.

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Speaker 1: It's on substack. You can follow that where he breaks

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Speaker 1: down a lot of the numbers where he's looking at

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Speaker 1: races both here in the United States as well as

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Speaker 1: globally as well. But he really digs into the numbers.

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Speaker 1: So I think you're really going to enjoy this conversation

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Speaker 1: kind of nerding out a little bit for the next hour.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to Ryan, I want to tell

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Speaker 1: you a little bit about IFCJ it's really important. October

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Speaker 1: seventh was the one year mark of the worst massacre

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Speaker 1: of the Jewish people since the Holocaust. Twelve hundred Israelis

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Speaker 1: were murdered and more than two hundred and fifty taken hostage.

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Speaker 1: The war in Israel rages on today. Israel and the

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Speaker 1: Jewish people are facing attacks from enemies on all sides

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Speaker 1: seeking Israel's destruction. The International Fellowship of Christians and Jews

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Speaker 1: is on the ground providing food, shelter, and safety to

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Speaker 1: those in need during this crisis. Since the war started,

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Speaker 1: there were reservists every day, Israeli citizens who have left

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Speaker 1: families behind to serve their country, soldiers who have been injured,

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Speaker 1: and their families need support. Your gift of one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars today helps the Fellowship provide food and

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Speaker 1: other necessities to these families to help them survive, and

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Speaker 1: thanks to a generous Fellowship supporter, your gift will be

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Speaker 1: matched to double its impact. Join us and letting those

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Speaker 1: families know that listeners like you stand with Israel. Call

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Speaker 1: to make your one hundred fifty dollars gift right now

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Speaker 1: at eight eight eight four eight eight IFCJ. That's eight

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Speaker 1: eight eight four eight eight four three two five, or

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Speaker 1: you can go online to support IFCJ dot org to

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Speaker 1: give that's one word support IFCJ dot org. Ryan, it's

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Speaker 1: great to have you on the show I've been watching

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Speaker 1: on CNN. You've been doing a great job. It's sort

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Speaker 1: of interesting to see people's heads explosed when explode when

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Speaker 1: you when you face them with the facts. So you're

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Speaker 1: doing a great job.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. Well.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to, you know, sort of big picture, where

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Speaker 1: do you think this election stands today?

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Speaker 2: It's so razor like thin, like the margins, And I

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Speaker 2: don't know whether there are parts of me that sit

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Speaker 2: there and say it's razor thin because polsters are very

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Speaker 2: afraid of getting burnt like they got in the last

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Speaker 2: two elections, especially in twenty twenty not twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: I'm talking about like the presidential elections. Every time Trump's

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Speaker 2: on the ballot, and there are so part of me

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Speaker 2: says they're all worried about being wrong, so they're playing

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Speaker 2: it safe. And then another part of me says that,

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Speaker 2: you know, if you look at a lot of these polls,

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Speaker 2: you're seeing these huge margins for Harris among seniors among

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Speaker 2: college educated whites, and frankly, you saw those exact numbers

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Speaker 2: for both Hillary and Biden and neither one ended up

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Speaker 2: being true. So is it that there's an enthusiasm gap

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Speaker 2: as far as who wants to talk to a polster

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Speaker 2: and is throwing their weight behind it? Now, there is

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Speaker 2: big excitement for Harris. It's not like it doesn't exist.

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Speaker 2: And you're seeing that in the first day voting in Virginia,

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Speaker 2: the first day voting in Georgia, first day of voting

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Speaker 2: appsent emails in Pennsylvania. Democrats are are showing up in

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Speaker 2: really big numbers. But is it just that it's very

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Speaker 2: enthused Democrats are showing up in very big numbers, or

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Speaker 2: is it that the overall population is showing up? Kind

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Speaker 2: of I kind of venture on the fact is people

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Speaker 2: who would have been voting no matter what are just

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Speaker 2: voting first day because they, you know, watch Rachel Maddowen

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Speaker 2: live to hey Donald Trump. So we'll wait, we have

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Speaker 2: to wait and see. I mean, it's not there's no

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Speaker 2: clear answer. What I would love if anyone listening to

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Speaker 2: your podcasts or anybody else could do this, if you could,

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Speaker 2: if anyone could find out like in Pennsylvania mail in ballots,

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Speaker 2: that pennsylvani is one of the very very few states

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Speaker 2: in the country that is a swing state that also

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Speaker 2: has party registration. That if they could find out if

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Speaker 2: these Republicans who are turning in their ballots and requesting

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Speaker 2: ballots are low perpensity or high propensity voters, that would

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Speaker 2: really give us a much better number as to what's

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Speaker 2: really going on than just looking at the estimates. So

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Speaker 2: we don't know people's voting history. And are we Democrats

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Speaker 2: are hoping that Republicans high early turnout is cannibalizing their

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Speaker 2: election day turnout. But we don't know that to be true.

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Speaker 2: We don't know that not to be true. We really

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Speaker 2: have no idea.

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Speaker 1: Well, so dig into that a little bit because I

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Speaker 1: know you've been posting and following. You know, the data

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Speaker 1: were available with st ballot requests as well as returns

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Speaker 1: in different states. I guess you know you kind of

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Speaker 1: alluded to it a little bit before. But you know,

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Speaker 1: what does that data tell you? Does it tell you anything?

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Speaker 1: You know, what are you trying to learn from that?

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Speaker 2: Right? There are seven big swing swing states, right, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia,

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Speaker 2: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. So eight eight big

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Speaker 2: swing states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada have a

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Speaker 2: party registration. The other states do not. So when you're

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Speaker 2: looking at Georgia, Georgia is the only one of those

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Speaker 2: states that reports racial voting by by black, white, Hispanic, YadA, YadA, YadA.

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Speaker 2: Aside from that, everything is just geographical locations that were

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Speaker 2: really estimating it. Our big Trump counties coming out are

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Speaker 2: big Biden counties coming out. We don't know party affiliation.

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Speaker 2: But we'll go to Pennsylvania because Pennsylvania, while they do

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Speaker 2: not have early in person voting, they do have a

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Speaker 2: very robust absentee mail in situation. So as of right now,

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Speaker 2: Republicans are just shy of a half a million ballad

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Speaker 2: requests yesterday, This is fresh off the presses yesterday on Tuesday. Sorry,

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Speaker 2: this morning, on Wednesday, October sixteenth, at eight thirty, they

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Speaker 2: posted the update and there were thirteen thousand, eight hundred

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Speaker 2: new absentee ballot request for Republicans. There were ten thousand,

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Speaker 2: eight hundred for Democrats. Republicans posted nearly three thousand more

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Speaker 2: absentee ballot requests than Democrats did. That is the highest

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Speaker 2: margin for Republicans over Democrats in at least ten years.

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Speaker 2: On a single day that is never that doesn't happen.

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Speaker 2: Republicans are about two hundred and ten thousand more absenty

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Speaker 2: ballot requests then they were in twenty twenty two, and

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Speaker 2: they are about one hundred and fifty thousand more than

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Speaker 2: Democrats were in twenty twenty two. That's a pretty good number.

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Speaker 2: And I use twenty twenty two two because it was

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Speaker 2: in COVID, you know, twenty twenty was. Republicans are going

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Speaker 2: to get very very close. They only have eleven more days.

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Speaker 2: They're probably going to be if I had to take

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Speaker 2: an estimated guess, they're probably going to be about one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to one hundred thousand votes short of

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Speaker 2: their twenty twenty numbers. Democrats will be about eight hundred

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Speaker 2: thousand short of their twenty twenty numbers. Now that doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean Democrats are not going to go vote, they're just

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Speaker 2: not voting via absentee. So what does that look like

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Speaker 2: as far as as far as the election goes. Banking

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Speaker 2: your vote early is very, very very important. We just

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Speaker 2: don't know if those voters for Republicans are lower propensity

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Speaker 2: voters who would have voted anyway or sorry, who would

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Speaker 2: have not voted, were not guaranteed to show up to vote,

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Speaker 2: versus those who are always guaranteed to vote. I will

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Speaker 2: say this, as far as ballots being returned, Democrats are

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Speaker 2: just killing it. When it comes to returning ballots on time.

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Speaker 2: Democrats have a very, very very sizeable lead to Republicans

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Speaker 2: of over a quarter of a million ballots being returned

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Speaker 2: so far, that could all change. And as long as

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Speaker 2: Republicans keep out pacing Democrats. If that happens with requests,

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Speaker 2: then the potential for them to run very close to

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Speaker 2: dead even or at least within a four hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: voter difference is very important for Republicans in Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 1: And it's like, but if they're requesting ballots, you've got

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Speaker 1: to chase those ballots and make sure they turn them

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Speaker 1: in right now.

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Speaker 2: But you can always turn them in on election day.

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Speaker 2: And I've heard that from a number of people in

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Speaker 2: Pennsylvania who are like, I'm requesting my ballot early so

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Speaker 2: I have it and then I'm going to hand it

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Speaker 2: in on election day. That's totally legal, perfectly fine. People

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Speaker 2: do that. I always like to sit there and say,

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Speaker 2: if you know yourself and you're not a if you're

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Speaker 2: somebody who likes to sleep in, you've got a baby,

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Speaker 2: your car is not reliable, you don't like the rain

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Speaker 2: or the snow or whatever the weather situation could be,

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Speaker 2: just go hand in your ballot early, like, just go

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Speaker 2: vote early, get it out of the way, and bank

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Speaker 2: your vote, because you would be by the amount of

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Speaker 2: people who either think that they have voted and haven't

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Speaker 2: or have every good intention to go vote, and then

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Speaker 2: they just forget, They just forget on Electionally. I worked

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Speaker 2: because I worked in campaigns for a long time. I

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Speaker 2: worked for Jdvanca Super Pac. I had a candidate one

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Speaker 2: time running for Congress. This is back in twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: who went through his voter history and where like, you

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Speaker 2: didn't vote in like two of the last three presidential elections.

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Speaker 2: And he was like, yes, I did. And I was like,

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at your history. You did not vote. And

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Speaker 2: there's so many people who don't vote and they think

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Speaker 2: they do. Chapel Roone, that pop star right now. She

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Speaker 2: sat there and she said about voting and YadA, YadA, YadA,

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Speaker 2: and someone pulled up her voting history and she had

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Speaker 2: never voted, which is very normal. But like to said,

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Speaker 2: there in a ten year old like a political activist

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Speaker 2: and you never voted is more common than you would expect.

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Speaker 2: So let's go to Georgia for a second. So Georgie

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Speaker 2: is a very important state. Obviously, it's a state that

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Speaker 2: Biden barely won. It's a state that Trump could easily win,

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Speaker 2: and he's been ahead in the polls. A big problem

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Speaker 2: for Republicans in Georgia is that high counties with large

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Speaker 2: populations of non college educated whites, a lot of counties

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Speaker 2: that vote heavily Republican, have absolutely horrendous, horrendous turnout. Marjorie

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Speaker 2: Taylor Green's district, which is the most Republican district in

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Speaker 2: the state of Georgia, had I think it was like

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Speaker 2: seventy thousand fewer votes than the city of Atlanta. Now

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Speaker 2: it's not that their voters don't live there, they do.

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Speaker 2: They just don't show up and they're not mobilized in

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Speaker 2: the way that Atlanta is the most. If Republican counties

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Speaker 2: and Republican congression districts voted at the same level Democrats did,

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Speaker 2: Trump would have won that state of Georgia by oh

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Speaker 2: easily over seventy thousand votes without having a convincent anybody.

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Speaker 2: So as far as the raw vote goes, obviously the

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Speaker 2: most populated counties Fulton, Cobb to Cap Gwenette, these are

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Speaker 2: very blue counties with large populations. They had the most

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Speaker 2: votes that came in on the first day of early voting.

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Speaker 2: It was a record breaking day. But there's a very

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Speaker 2: big caveat. In twenty twenty, half a million people had

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Speaker 2: already voted by absentee before they've started in person voting.

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Speaker 2: This time, I think like it's like twelve thousand voted absentee.

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Speaker 2: Almost nobody voted absentee by mail. Everyone was waiting to

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Speaker 2: vote in person. So there's a high intensity, but it's

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Speaker 2: they are switching just platforms. I mean, people are just

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Speaker 2: voting from absentee to mail it.

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Speaker 1: You know, looking at North Carolina, how do you think

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Speaker 1: Helene could impact the election? I know NPR found that

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Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the county's FEMA designated as places

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Speaker 1: residents could qualify for aid. Trump one or fifty of

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Speaker 1: those counties overall, Right, so North, So how do you

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Speaker 1: think their ability to get to you know to vote.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's very very difficult to sit there and say one.

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Speaker 2: I genuinely don't know if we're ever going to find

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Speaker 2: out how many people or if they are not ever.

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Speaker 2: But we don't know as of now how many people

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Speaker 2: just died and they're gone missing, or they are moved

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Speaker 2: into like camp somewhere, or they're just off the grid.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we just don't know. What I have looked

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Speaker 2: at is if you look, there's two important parts. One

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Speaker 2: Western North Carolina is the most liberal part of Appalachia. Right,

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Speaker 2: it is far more liberal than Appalachia in Virginia, West Virginia,

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Speaker 2: South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. It is the most liberal part

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Speaker 2: in a big part because Asheville is in San Francisco

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Speaker 2: on the east coast. It has I mean, the city

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Speaker 2: of Asheville voted like ninety two to eight for Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: and that was completely crushed. The outsized counties in the north,

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Speaker 2: like Eastern area, those are the ones that were really devastated.

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Speaker 2: They're not that populated. So while the region as a

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Speaker 2: whole is very populated, the parts that were truly decimated

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Speaker 2: were not that populated. And when you when you look

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Speaker 2: at the counties of role that gave to gave votes

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Speaker 2: to Biden versus those that gave to Trump. It's about

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Speaker 2: a thirty five thousand margin in favor of Biden for

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Speaker 2: the Blue counties and a thirty thousand and thirty five

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Speaker 2: thousand margin for the Trump counties. It may be even

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Speaker 2: maybe Asheville will recoup faster because it's a city and

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Speaker 2: they'll start going out to vote early. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: is like the answer. It shouldn't be the biggest change.

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Speaker 2: I mean that everyone affected. Everyone sits there and says,

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Speaker 2: when you realize the population changes in rural black North Carolina,

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Speaker 2: how the population has shrunk when you look at the

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Speaker 2: amount of people who have moved to the state and

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Speaker 2: increased voter registration, We're not a lot of people sit

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Speaker 2: there and say, oh, look at twenty twenty and those

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Speaker 2: are That's true for states that are especially stagnant in

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Speaker 2: population or maybe even shrinking a little in population. It's

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Speaker 2: not true for North Carolina, which is such a robust

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Speaker 2: population growth, because there's about a quarter of a million

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Speaker 2: new voters that weren't there four years ago. What alone

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Speaker 2: people just turning eighteen, but people moving from the northeast

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Speaker 2: during COVID that changed dramatically the makeup of North Carolina

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Speaker 2: in a lot of ways. So I don't know, it's

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Speaker 2: not I don't think as of right now it's going

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Speaker 2: to decide the election, simply because the Asheville population kind

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Speaker 2: of offsets the other populations. And if Western North Carolina

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Speaker 2: voted like Western Virginia, I would sit there and say, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's so those are Republican vashion it's the most republican

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Speaker 2: part of the state. It's frankly not the most republican

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Speaker 2: part of the state, not even close. Further Inland and

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Speaker 2: into eastern North Carolina is much more Republican than Western

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Speaker 2: North Carolina. So I know there's a big fear of

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Speaker 2: the voting situation going on. I think the Republicans do

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Speaker 2: everything they can. I think they've changed some rules there

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Speaker 2: to help it make it easier for people to vote.

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Speaker 2: But we'll have to wait and see.

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Speaker 1: You know. One thing I think is interesting this election

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Speaker 1: cycle is, you know, and it seems pretty consistent in

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Speaker 1: various surveys where more voters are identifying as Republican than Democrat.

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Speaker 1: You know, we saw that Gallup poll not too long ago,

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Speaker 1: finding that by three points more voters identify as Republican

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Speaker 1: than Democrats. First time Republicans had that advantage in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter before a presidential election since nineteen ninety two.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to imagine that that won't translate into the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party, you know, performing that way in both presidential

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Speaker 1: and down ballot. But you know, how do you read that?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that is different than past elections.

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Speaker 2: It's very difficult. So what like the New York Times,

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Speaker 2: Nate Cohen, who's a very smart guy, what Ham, what

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Speaker 2: Nate Silver. What they're all looking at is we all

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Speaker 2: believe that there's some kind of a realignment. Right, minorities

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Speaker 2: are especially more Republican, and the national polling is substantially

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Speaker 2: better for Trump than it is for him in twenty

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Speaker 2: or twenty four. The question that's on everyone's minds, and

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Speaker 2: we'll find this out after election day, is is it

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Speaker 2: because blue states are significantly voting more read than previous

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Speaker 2: election cycle. So I wrote this in my substack, the

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Speaker 2: National Populist newsletter. What they're betting on in a lot

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Speaker 2: of polls is Trump is down fourteen points in New York.

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Speaker 2: That's the state he lost by twenty three points. Last time,

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Speaker 2: he's down by twenty three points. In California state he

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Speaker 2: lost by twenty nine points. They're looking at these very

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Speaker 2: blue states Hawaii, Rhode Island, Illinois, New Jersey, New York,

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Speaker 2: California and saying, wow, he's posting five point plus ships

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Speaker 2: largely on the back of Asian, Hispanic Jewish Orthodox Jewish

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Speaker 2: voters who am some Black voters who are just like,

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Speaker 2: we are not doing this anymore, Like we've really been

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Speaker 2: screwed by democratic governance from the local government onwards. And

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Speaker 2: that could be super helpful. If you're Mike Garcia, if

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Speaker 2: you're Mike Lawler, you're hoping for these huge ships right

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Speaker 2: wing because it will inevitably help you win these congressionals seats.

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Speaker 2: But it won't flip these states red maybe over long

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Speaker 2: trend lines.

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Speaker 1: It will do by the down ballot, you know, yea,

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Speaker 1: it helps you.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, if suburban America is still voting

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Speaker 2: very left well, and they're increasingly moving left, white college

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Speaker 2: educated voters will then Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin may be too

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Speaker 2: far for you to reach. And that's really where the

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Speaker 2: big question is is, like, is this realignment house significance realignment.

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Speaker 2: And when it comes to polls, and I mentioned this

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Speaker 2: before the break or sorry, before we started, was that

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Speaker 2: if you look at poles, there's a lot of polls

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Speaker 2: in sixteen and in twenty that overestimated the support among

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Speaker 2: college educated whites. It's a group that both Hillary and

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Speaker 2: Biden won, but they didn't win them at the margins

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Speaker 2: that pollsters said they would in a lot of these poles.

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Speaker 2: If you deep dive into cross tabs, which you will

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Speaker 2: go insane from doing, which is why I don't suggest

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Speaker 2: because I do it all the time. You see a

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Speaker 2: lot of times Harris winning seniors. And I've written significantly

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Speaker 2: about this, or wrote this for the American Conservative magazine

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Speaker 2: and for my sub stock. The seniors are a group

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Speaker 2: that have voted Republican in every election since at least

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Speaker 2: the year two thousand. There has been no break with seniors.

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Speaker 2: And actually the group underneath seniors were who would be

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Speaker 2: seniors now but weren't four and eight years ago, vote

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Speaker 2: more Republican than seniors now than seniors in the past.

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Speaker 2: So given that there should be close to no shift,

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Speaker 2: it's basically a very fixed group unless you've died or

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Speaker 2: you've aged into the senior citizen category. There's not like

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Speaker 2: a plethora of new immigrants who are seniors who are

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Speaker 2: coming to this country and are voting. The key thing

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Speaker 2: is is that they all have Harris winning this group.

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Speaker 2: And my belief is is that one polling is extremely expensive.

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Speaker 2: If for a good poster, it could cost you fifty

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Speaker 2: sixty thousand dollars per poll.

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Speaker 1: They used to work in polling.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very expensive and it's very hard to do.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of times pollsters will go to people

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Speaker 2: that they know answer polls, and they have reported a

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Speaker 2: huge swing in favor of Harris among seniors. I fundamentally

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Speaker 2: do not believe this to be true. That is why

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Speaker 2: I think the polls are underestimating Trump support, just like

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Speaker 2: they did four and eight years ago. That is like

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Speaker 2: the big fear that Harris people have. I know, I've

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Speaker 2: spoken to a lot of reporters who are very familiar

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Speaker 2: with both parties internals. Both Trump's internals and Harris internals

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Speaker 2: have both respective people winning. But it's all within the

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Speaker 2: margin of error. It's all sitting there and saying it's

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Speaker 2: Harris plus one Trump plus one, which really means it

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Speaker 2: could be anyone's ball game. Based upon who shows up.

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Speaker 1: We've got more with Ryan, but first I want to

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Speaker 1: radio dot Com. That's pretty remarkable given the facts, you know.

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Speaker 1: The Trump campaign put out a memo recently talking about

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Speaker 1: how since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent two

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty one million dollars in untrackable media spend

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Speaker 1: compared to about one hundred and five million from the

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Speaker 1: Trump campaign, nearly two point five to one spending advantage.

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Speaker 1: And yet the Real Cleared Politics national average has her,

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Speaker 1: you know, by less than two percent. And on the

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Speaker 1: same day twenty twenty, Biden was up ten point three percent.

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Speaker 1: So and then you look at the media coverage where

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Speaker 1: you know, eighty four percent positive for eighty nine percent

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Speaker 1: negative for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: Right, And if you look at the most important thing,

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Speaker 2: and I sent this to I was talking to somebody

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Speaker 2: very up in the in the Trump campaign. If you

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Speaker 2: look at Pennsylvania, right, A lot of Republicans are having

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Speaker 2: this nervousness about Pennsylvania, especially given that Oz and these

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Speaker 2: Real Care Politics pulling average was ahead at the very

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Speaker 2: end and then went on to lose by five points.

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Speaker 2: What's important to remember is if you strip away the

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Speaker 2: partisan polls and you look at non partisan poles. I'm

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Speaker 2: talking to Fox News, CNN, Quinnipiac, the New York Times, Marist,

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Speaker 2: they all had Fetterment up by five. It was right

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Speaker 2: wing polls that really threw OZ such a heavy advantage.

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Speaker 2: And the way the Real Care Politics and there were

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Speaker 2: great websites, so I'm not trashing them. But the way

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Speaker 2: they do it is they age polls out eventually after

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Speaker 2: a week or two, and they put the new poles up.

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Speaker 2: But that's not what's going on right now. In Pennsylvania, Emerson,

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Susquehanna Maris, Washington Post, and

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Speaker 2: Muhlberg all have Pennsylvania either Trump leading or tide. In Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: the Wall Street Journal, Emerson, and Quineypiac all have Trump

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Speaker 2: winning or tiede and Michigan Emerson, Quineypiac, and MIRS polls

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Speaker 2: and the new one which was Fabreezia pull A's a

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Speaker 2: Republican bolster, but they all had Trump tied or winning.

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Speaker 2: So there are a lot of non partisan poles sitting

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Speaker 2: there and saying, no, this could go for Trump. Really,

431
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: turnout is the key motivating thing that I think it's

432
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 2: important to kind of focus in on apparent ballot voting

433
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 2: and showing up. Democrats are really hoping that these super

434
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 2: blue counties and these very ambitiously aggressively anti Trump voters

435
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 2: build a firewall for them basically so that way, no

436
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 2: matter if a million people show up on election day,

437
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: they've already banked these votes. Republicans have caught wise to

438
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: it a bit, especially after being burned in twenty twenty two.

439
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: I think that's what you're seeing in Pennsylvania as far

440
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: as Absentee ballad or westco. It's just a matter of

441
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 2: do they show up beforehand and are they lower pensity

442
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: voters versus hyperpency voters. And also, mind you, another important thing,

443
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 2: and we saw this out of Virginia right now. Virginia's

444
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: obviously not really a swing state. It's almost surely going

445
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris. But what we saw out of Virginia

446
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 2: is places like rural black counties and Prince William County

447
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: all until like yesterday. Princeville County posted big numbers like

448
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: two days ago, but before then they were having very

449
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 2: low turnout in precincts that were majority black, rural black,

450
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,840
Speaker 2: majority Hispanic districts that had voted for Trump by I'm

451
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: sorry for Biden by over seventy percent, had a far

452
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 2: worse early vote turnout so far. I actually have the numbers.

453
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 2: I could just read them to you. Give me one second.

454
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 2: They had a far worse early turnout. So this is

455
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 2: as of two days ago. In the districts that voted

456
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: for Trump by over eighty percent, right they have a

457
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 2: nine percent to vote registered voter turnout as of right now.

458
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 2: In the districts that voted for Trump by under twenty percent,

459
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 2: those are almost exclusively either college educated whites or black precincts.

460
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 2: They voted for Trump by under about ten point three percent,

461
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 2: And districts that had voted a little more for Biden

462
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: twenty to thirty percent for Trump had a ten percent.

463
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 2: So I know that's a lot of numbers. So about

464
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: ten percent for districts that had voted for Biden by

465
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 2: over seventy percent, and about nine percent for dishes of

466
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: voted for Trump by over eighty percent. The districts that

467
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,640
Speaker 2: are showing up in these early precincts in Virginia voted

468
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 2: for Trump by between fifty and seventy percent. That's who's

469
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: showing up in the highest amount in Virginia. Now. Once again,

470
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,199
Speaker 2: Virginia is not a swing state. But the idea that

471
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 2: elections are local is not true. Elections are national. The

472
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: way that those voters in Virginia are showing up are

473
00:25:59,840 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 2: the way those voters in Pennsylvania are showing up are

474
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 2: the way those voters in Georgia are showing up. So

475
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 2: as the time continues to pass, as we keep moving

476
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 2: into the early election cycles, especially in Georgia, look out

477
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 2: for the Black belts. The Black Belt being very you know,

478
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 2: the descendants of slaves who live in rural Georgia. It

479
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 2: stretches throughout central and lower and southern Georgia, their majority

480
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 2: black counties. They have been trending to the right. Look

481
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 2: to see if they're showing up in early voting. If

482
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: they're not showing up in Georgia, and if they're not

483
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: showing up in Virginia and they don't show there's there's

484
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: no gamer they're gonna showup on election day. And if

485
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 2: that happens, that changes the economy of tens of thousands

486
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 2: of votes possibly in lower rural pensity, lower lower preensity,

487
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: rural minority districts across the South, so Georgia, North Carolina,

488
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 2: and it could possibly also bleed out into you know,

489
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: other states. The other people you need to look out

490
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 2: for is in a lot of secondary populated cities. So

491
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 2: I'm not talking Philadelphia, I'm not talking in Pittsburgh or Phoenix.

492
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 2: I'm talking smaller cities Dethlehem, Pennsylvania, Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Reading Pennsylvania,

493
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 2: Prince William County, Prince the area around Prince William County, Virginia.

494
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 2: All of those places are majority Hispanic. They have had

495
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 2: thus far fairly low turnout. If there is a big

496
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: push by Trump, if he's going to jump up two

497
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 2: three four points, and if Harris is going to go

498
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 2: down three four points among Hispanics in this demographics, if

499
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 2: those lower pensity voters are not ambitious to vote like

500
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 2: they were in twenty twenty, it's still overall a loss

501
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 2: in the raw vote count for Harris. So those are

502
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 2: the things that I will personally be looking for. Given

503
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 2: that in most states we don't have party registration, and

504
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: in the states we do put a registration, we don't

505
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 2: know people's past voting history. Those are little context clues

506
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 2: and little tea leaves we could sit there and try

507
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: to read.

508
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: The only difference I would say, probably or perhaps is

509
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: that you know, Virginia is also not being inundated with

510
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: negative advertising about Donald Trump lake states like Pennsylvania or

511
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,359
Speaker 1: Georgia would be, and people aren't probably chasing ballots as

512
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 1: much in Virginia as they are in some of these

513
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: other states.

514
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: Right, well, there are groups because remember there are there

515
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:21,080
Speaker 2: are a lot of organizations that care about Virginia's congressional districts.

516
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 2: Virginia has two, maybe three, if you want to stretch it,

517
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 2: maybe three districts that are really important the seventh Congression,

518
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 2: of the second congressional on the tenth congressional So there's

519
00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 2: a lot of effort in those three very important congressional districts.

520
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: If the Republicans can flip the seventh congressional district in Virginia,

521
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 2: that would be a gigantic, gigantic win for the party.

522
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of work being done on the ground,

523
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: not as much on the presidential level. But once again,

524
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: it's not like you can be really divorced, you know,

525
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 2: except if you're I mean, the golden hour of television

526
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: for people, for advertisers is the hour between the local

527
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 2: news and Jeopardy and Will of Fortune, which still has

528
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 2: raizy high viewership and it pays for all local television.

529
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: So you'll still see some ads there. But I mean,

530
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 2: you're going to see digital ads on every single platform,

531
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: regardless of where you live. You're going to see some

532
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: level of advertising and there are local groups that are

533
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 2: doing pushing to get early votes out. And young Glenn

534
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: Youngkin has a lot to prove right now too, because

535
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 2: if Glenn Youngkin can sit there and say, hey, we

536
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: flipped the seventh we kept the second congressulation Republican, and

537
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 2: we got Virginia down to a five point margin again,

538
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: you know, I would be a perfect choice in twenty

539
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 2: twenty eight or a great Senate candidate in twenty twenty six.

540
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 2: That's not really lost in anybody. So they these local

541
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: governors have a lot if they can sit there and

542
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 2: pull their candid their states close to the victory and

543
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 2: bring congressional districts with them.

544
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: You know, Ryan, that's a great point. You know. You

545
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: know obviously you know we're looking at the data. We're

546
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: trying to assess, you know, where this race stands here,

547
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 1: you know, very close to election day, which is wild.

548
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: But you know, we also in addition to the data,

549
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: we also look at, you know, sort of the messaging

550
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: and who campaigns are trying to you're kind of looking

551
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,000
Speaker 1: at like the big picture, like all of it. And

552
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 1: we've seen her campaign make this heavy pushed for men,

553
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: specifically for black men. You know, she basically just announced

554
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: all these giveaways for black business owners, including legalizing marijuana.

555
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: We've said, we've said, which really I think shows us

556
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: what they think of black men. But we've got Obama

557
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 1: basically like the whole another Joe Biden like you ain't black.

558
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 1: You know if you vote for Trump more or less.

559
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 1: You know, this real shaming of black men who plan

560
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: on voting for Trump. So I guess what does that

561
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: tell you? And and sort of reading the tea leaves

562
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: and and even just this, you know, the messaging pitch

563
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: as we head into election day.

564
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: I ken, I do not believe there is a universe

565
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 2: where you switch media strategies a month out that shows

566
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: you're in a good place. And especially by the fact,

567
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: I mean, she's doing a lot of media, so kuuz

568
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 2: dirett bear threat bear, She's doing a bunch of other stuff,

569
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: but she's doing a lot of media that one is

570
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: hyper friendly and two that is trying to restore her base.

571
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: You don't do the view as audience is majority black women,

572
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: the Charlemagne, the God is majority black men. You're going

573
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: to your own people saying don't forget to vote for me,

574
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: which you should be doing. But she didn't do it beforehand,

575
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 2: and she was not particularly that great when she did

576
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 2: the view. Charlemine the God was okay. It was a

577
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 2: friendly interview. We'll see how what happens on Brett Bayer.

578
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: We'll see if she does Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan would

579
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 2: be a very very insane interview because he's an audience

580
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 2: that he's one against her into she's been super protected

581
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: to now. I don't know if there's much that is

582
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: going to change people's minds. A lot. I mean, there'll

583
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 2: be a few things here or there. Here there, I

584
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 2: mean a few voters, and that could make the difference.

585
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 2: A lot of it is turnout, and a lot of

586
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,239
Speaker 2: people that I know in my real life are like,

587
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: I just either want this election be over or two

588
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: can we substitute, you know, for two different candidates that

589
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 2: I'm tired of both of them.

590
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: Well, I actually really like Trump.

591
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: But I'm not saying it's everybody, because I know people

592
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: who would literally give up their lives for Trump. I'm

593
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 2: just saying that, like, it's not I'm not saying it's everybody,

594
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 2: but I do know a lot of But those are

595
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: also people that I know they could be waterboarded and

596
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 2: they were still going to go out a vote. Are

597
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: the people who like they just they just don't know

598
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 2: election is happening. You would be shocked, but there's always

599
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 2: and if you look at Poles. My favorite thing ever

600
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: is like they'll be like your feelings on Trump or

601
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 2: Harris or Biden, and they'll just be like three people

602
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 2: like I've never heard of any of these people before,

603
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: and I want to know those people so badly, Like

604
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: I want to be like, how happy are you? Like,

605
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 2: because you have to be the happiest human being in

606
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: the world. You don't know what's going on, you don't care,

607
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 2: You're living your life. I'm all about it.

608
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 1: But like totally yeah, like we can we live in

609
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: their bubble.

610
00:32:56,360 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, so nice, it's so well, it's so it's so

611
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: wonderful to live in that world. But those are the

612
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: people who are like, I'll vote, maybe I'll get to it,

613
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 2: maybe election d I mentioned Chapel never voted before. Now

614
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: she asked to take a stance. But there's a lot

615
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: of people who are like, you know, if I show up,

616
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 2: if I feel good that day, if it's not raining,

617
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 2: if the kids don't bug me, you know, if my

618
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: knee doesn't hurt that they'll show up and vote. You

619
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 2: would be shocked by the numbers who were just like

620
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 2: as in twenty sixteen, there was a great article I

621
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 2: think it was in five point thirty eight about the

622
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 2: number of non college educated white Americans who were not

623
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,959
Speaker 2: even registered to vote, and it was north of forty

624
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 2: two million. And it is wild how many people are

625
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: just not even registered. Thankfully, one of the things I

626
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: think Joshapiro did poorly for Democrats is he made automatic

627
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 2: voter registration in Pennsylvania based upon driver's licenses. Where you

628
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 2: renew your license, we're going to get a license, you

629
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: have to register to vote. I think that's partially response

630
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 2: for the surge and Republican voting is a bunch of

631
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: people without, you know, non college educated whites who were

632
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 2: apathetic or now actually registered. About whether you like it

633
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 2: or not, I will tell you a quick story. I

634
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 2: was speaking to one of my friends in Wisconsin and

635
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: he's a big Republican and he's with his two college

636
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 2: buddies and he's like, could you please tell them. They're like,

637
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: we're not going to vote because the Electoral College it

638
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: doesn't mean anything anyway. I'm like, yes, if you live

639
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 2: in California, you live with Wisconsin like a lot, and

640
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: it was like ten minutes my life. No, no, like you actually,

641
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: but there are those people where I'm like no, like yes,

642
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 2: but no, because where you live it actually matters. And

643
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 2: they were like blown away by that. So that's why

644
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 2: when I say, like there are people who don't like

645
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: Trump or Horse or people of course who do love them,

646
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 2: but they're just apathetic to the whole process.

647
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 1: But it's also like, I don't know how people couldn't

648
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 1: be motivated in this political environment, Like we've had one

649
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,959
Speaker 1: of the candidates to assassination attempts, We've got like sky

650
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 1: high inflation, we've got you know, like world war potential

651
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: breaking out, and like the Middle East and Europe. You know,

652
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: it's like you go down the list of like you've got,

653
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 1: you know, basically an invasion happening at the southern border.

654
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 1: It's like what at this point, you know, what does

655
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: it take to get these people motivated? If they're not

656
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: motivated right now?

657
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's the feeling that they don't think that

658
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 2: the system will help them. Yeah, Like that's I just

659
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 2: don't think the system will help them, and That's why

660
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: it's so important to pick upon them. You know, the

661
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: non college educated white vote is the most Republican vote

662
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 2: there is. As far as I know, and maybe I

663
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 2: am wrong, I know of at least a dozen organizations

664
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 2: that focus and target black voters and black voter turnout

665
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: and Hispanic go to turnout for both Republicans and Democrats.

666
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: There's none that exists for non college educated whites, and

667
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 2: they are the biggest group. And I've been saying this.

668
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 2: I said this to a couple people within the Trump universe,

669
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: but like there are like six or seven, sorry, there's

670
00:35:57,400 --> 00:35:59,880
Speaker 2: twenty million. Rather twenty million people in this country who

671
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 2: live in mobile homes and mobile home communities definitely look

672
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 2: down upon. They call them white trailer trash and all

673
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 2: the rest of it. But they are under a constant

674
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 2: threat where they don't own the property they live on.

675
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,479
Speaker 2: They just own the mobile home and as a lot

676
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 2: of corporate about of companies have bought those properties and

677
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 2: are increasing rates and literally leaving people homeless. The biggest

678
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: state for people who live in mobile homes are Florida, Georgia,

679
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and then Pennsylvania that's all

680
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 2: those important states in the country. Having a message specifically

681
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 2: tailored to them wouldn't have hurt them in this election cycle.

682
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,320
Speaker 2: And micro targeting to communities that are super lower pensity.

683
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 2: Now Trump's trying to do that with young men, men

684
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 2: vote less than women do in young men, especially by

685
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 2: doing these podcasts, by going to do these interviews. It's

686
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 2: just a matter of wrangling to the polls could be hard,

687
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 2: and that's really where the whole gamble is. I don't

688
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 2: think Trump had another choice. I don't think there was

689
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 2: another group people he could have gone to. I just

690
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: hope that the ground game is so sufficient that it

691
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 2: could bring them, because that's the big question.

692
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: Well, we've also seen, you know, Scott Pressler tweet about

693
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 1: sort of even just try to reach the Amish community.

694
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 2: This drives me crazy. Wait, can I talk about the

695
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 2: Amage for one second? You canh God, Okay, So here's

696
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 2: the problem with the Amash community. There are a lot

697
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 2: of Amish, especially in Pennsylvania, but most cannot vote because

698
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 2: they are too young. Right, that's the first problem. Because

699
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: the Amage have an average of six children per woman,

700
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: most of them are super super young, and that is

701
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: what like a major problem was of those who are

702
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 2: registered to vote. I'm going to bring out the actual

703
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 2: numbers for you because there's a great university that studies Amish.

704
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 2: Turnout the Amish. There's two major settlements, one being in

705
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 2: Lancaster County, which is the big one, and one being

706
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,240
Speaker 2: around Mercer County is the second one of those. Here's

707
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 2: the actual numbers. So in twenty twenty, right in Lancaster,

708
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 2: let's go back, sorry to two thousand and four. Bush

709
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 2: put a big effort in to get the homage to vote.

710
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 2: They were in two one thousand and four there were

711
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: ten thousand, three hundred and fifty eligible Amish voters in

712
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 2: Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. Two thousand were registered to vote and

713
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: thirteen hundred did. In twenty sixteen, there were fifteen thousand

714
00:38:14,440 --> 00:38:18,239
Speaker 2: eligible Amish voters. Two thousand were registered, so no jump

715
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: in registration over the course of those twelve years, despite

716
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 2: the population increasing by fifty percent, and only one thousand

717
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 2: did and that was an even further decrease. There was

718
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: a big effort put by the Republicans between sixteen and

719
00:38:30,160 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: twenty to register and engage Amash voters. The number of

720
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 2: Amish who were eligible to vote in Lancaster in twenty

721
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 2: twenty were seventeen thousand, up two thousand from four years prior.

722
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: Four thousand this time a registered to vote, so it

723
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 2: doubled the amount of people registered to vote in the

724
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 2: Amish community, and three thousand did so. Seventy percent seventy

725
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 2: one percent of all eligible Amish voters did in fact vote.

726
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: That's fantastic. In a very very tight election. There could

727
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 2: be six or seven thousand registered Amashed by this election

728
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 2: in Lancaster and statewide it could be like eight thousand.

729
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,840
Speaker 2: There just aren't enough of them yet. Who are eighteen

730
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:09,320
Speaker 2: that will put it over the edge? I mean in

731
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 2: a very close election, if it's like a thousand votes,

732
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 2: if it's Florid in twenty one hundred percent. But the

733
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 2: numbers just aren't there yet. They will get there in

734
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 2: a decade to two decades, because no how much population

735
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 2: is more than I think it's tripled since I was born,

736
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: or more than actually triples since I was born, And

737
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 2: they're very important, especially in the Midwest. We're just not

738
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 2: at that point yet.

739
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 1: We've got more with Ryan. But first, in today's world

740
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756
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 1: When you're these campaigns, you've got a finite amount of

757
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 1: resources and you're trying to figure out, you know, who

758
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 1: do you invest your money in in terms of you know,

759
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 1: who do you think you can actually get to turn out?

760
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: And you know, so you're you're trying to figure out

761
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: where to spend that money and spend.

762
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: A lot for them, because they're got to be big.

763
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 2: And the good thing is that younger Amish vote and

764
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 2: older Amish don't so because they're very, very big belief

765
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 2: in the separation of church and state. So but the

766
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 2: younger Amash will be around for a long time and

767
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: they are they're breeding like rabbits, so God bless them.

768
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: You know, I've been told by you know, individuals who

769
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,000
Speaker 1: I really trust looking at data every day to really

770
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,400
Speaker 1: look at the Jewish vote and that they believe Jewish

771
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: voters it's going to be a big surprise on November fifth.

772
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: You know, what do you make of that? And are

773
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 1: there any other groups of voters you think that we're

774
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: that are going to surprise us?

775
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 2: So the Jewish vote is changing one because of demographics,

776
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 2: because secular Jews do not have kids and have not

777
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 2: had kids for a very long time, going back to

778
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies where their fertility rates were under replacement levels,

779
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: and Orthodox and hasidam especially have large, large families like

780
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 2: on par with the Amish. For the Hassidems and Hasidic vote,

781
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 2: you know, ninety percent Republican. You can look at Borough Park, Brooklyn,

782
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 2: which is in central Brooklyn, you'll see a bright red

783
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: spot in two thousand and eight, and if you go

784
00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: two thousand and sorry, in twenty twelve, tw sixteen, twenty

785
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,920
Speaker 2: bright red spot keeps growing and growing and growing and growing.

786
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 2: That is in part the population change of Ustidham Jews,

787
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 2: you know, by just fertility and growth, So that will

788
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 2: definitely change the overall number at the end of the day.

789
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 2: The problem is most Jewish voters are just in fact liberal.

790
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 2: They are just liberal, and they are liberal on everything

791
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 2: from abortion to you know, taxes, to everything. Some have

792
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: been red pilled. I have a friend who's a celebrity

793
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 2: and he's talking to a very very well known Jewish

794
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: celebrity who's very liberal, and they were like, Wow, they

795
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 2: really hate us, and we're having a wake up moment.

796
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 2: If it could if right now. In pollingd can Pew Research.

797
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: Pew Research has the largest sample size of any poles,

798
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 2: over ten thousands, so they have a very good sample

799
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 2: of Jewish voters. They have Trump doing the best of

800
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 2: any Republican since nineteen eighty eight with a Jewish vote.

801
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 2: Yet and still that only means he's getting like thirty

802
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 2: five thirty six percent. If he can achieve that, If

803
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: he can get to thirty seven percent, call that a win.

804
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,040
Speaker 2: The good thing is in that demographic. While there are

805
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: a lot of Jews in Pennsylvania, they don't really exist

806
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 2: in other swing states and large populations. They're mostly concerted

807
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 2: in like New York, New Jersey, Florida. So we'll see.

808
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 2: I don't have a huge, huge hope that they will

809
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 2: vote in large numbers. The other vote that I would

810
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 2: be very interested in right now is the Asian vote

811
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 2: because it is very small, but it is growing. They

812
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: have the highest number one group of immigrants, the legal

813
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 2: immigrants anywhere. We're Asians and have been Asians for over

814
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:35,000
Speaker 2: ten years. People think it's Hispanics, but it's not. Viennese

815
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 2: Koreans tend to track right. Indians Bangladeshi's are very very

816
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 2: left wing. It will be interesting to see does Kamala

817
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:50,439
Speaker 2: engage the Indian community being an Indian woman. Does that

818
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 2: change anything? Does it to change anything that she's you know,

819
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 2: part Asian when she decides to claim it. That will

820
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 2: be interesting, especially in places like Orange County, California, and

821
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,400
Speaker 2: other down ballot effects I'm not so sure it's going

822
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,479
Speaker 2: to really change most of the swing states, especially because

823
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: the rust Belt states and the East coast North Carolina,

824
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 2: Georgia states, they are still ninety to ninety five percent

825
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: black white electors, so they are very very kind of stagnant.

826
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,760
Speaker 2: More important will be turned out than micro targeting certain

827
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 2: communities like that. Maybe the Lumbee tribe will be interesting

828
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,760
Speaker 2: in North Carolina because they were It's an Indian tribe

829
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 2: that was very democratic, and they moved super Republican, like

830
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: in the blink of an eye for Trump. It went

831
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: from like literally twenty percent for Romney to like seventy

832
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 2: five percent for Trump over to election cycles.

833
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 1: And it'll be interesting to see what the Muslim vote

834
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 1: looks like in Michigan, Yes.

835
00:44:45,600 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 2: And Georgia. There are two hundred thousand Muslims in Georgia.

836
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 2: And the Care poll, which I said to Van Jones

837
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 2: on CNN, the Care poll that found only fifty two

838
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 2: percent of black Muslims are supporting Harris. And I think

839
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 2: in one state Harris was actually in third place with

840
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: the muzzle vote. I forget which one it is, but

841
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 2: Stein was ahead of her. So that will be very

842
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 2: very important. Not just in Michigan, but there's a lot

843
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 2: of Black well, there's a lot of Muslims throughout the

844
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 2: whole South. There's a lot of Muslims in North Carolina.

845
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: You have to remember since Sign eleven and we have

846
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: more than doubled our Muslim population through immigration in this country.

847
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 2: And it's not going to be very very long before

848
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 2: Muslims will populate Jews in America. So our politics will change.

849
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 2: I will say this if Trump, if Trump wins, and

850
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 2: wins in part because of Michigan, because of the Muslim vote,

851
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 2: you will never see it will be the end of

852
00:45:33,960 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: bipartisanship over Israel. Like in the blink of night. You'll

853
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 2: never see a Democrat just rallying for Israel like they

854
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 2: do now.

855
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 1: And that'll be because not because Muslims will be voting

856
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 1: for Trump, but just they sit it out right.

857
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 2: Some will vote for Trump. We saw the Muslim mayor

858
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 2: of that city in Michigan, Indorsetown, who's a Democrat. Some

859
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 2: of them will some of them will vote for Trump for sure.

860
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 2: Some of them will vote for Sign, some of them

861
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 2: will set it out. It'll be a mixed bag. But

862
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 2: it's not insignificant that the Muslim mayor of his town that,

863
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 2: by the way, was like all white twenty years ago.

864
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 2: That's how fast the demographics have changed. That they're endorsing

865
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 2: Trump and they're a Democrat and in a democratic state

866
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 2: where they could probably have a long political future running

867
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:17,800
Speaker 2: for Congress, running for this, running for that, and they're saying, no,

868
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 2: it's really important to respect to my people's values. That

869
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,800
Speaker 2: means that that it's actually real when someone's willing to

870
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:27,959
Speaker 2: give up their political future, which most politicians period aren't

871
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,320
Speaker 2: going willing to do to say that out loud.

872
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: So, yeah, he's a city of ham Trump.

873
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not on big city, but it's still americally there.

874
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember. And then well, so yeah, when you

875
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,279
Speaker 1: were talking about the Jewish people being red pilled, I

876
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: was thinking about Bill Ackman too, who you know, really

877
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 1: kind I went to the right after October seventh. And

878
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 1: then now he's like totally based and sometimes he tweets things, uh.

879
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: Oh, I love those people.

880
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:57,359
Speaker 1: I've been times I'm like, no, I don't know if

881
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:01,720
Speaker 1: we have all that evidence. I'm like, maybe you should

882
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 1: just like give it a minute. But some of the tweets,

883
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: I'm like, whoa, we really went from zero to sixty

884
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: like very fast.

885
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 2: Here, well it's like nine eleven eleven. Yeah, a lot

886
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: of people change the nine to eleven. I know people

887
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 2: will change because the whole transgender kids thing. But like,

888
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 2: you know, I have a really good Jewish friend who was,

889
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 2: you know, super liberal, like I've donated to Obama and

890
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 2: Hill are a very wealthy Jewish friend, I mean was

891
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:28,320
Speaker 2: a max out donor, and she her and her husband

892
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 2: were just like we made all the wrong friends, like

893
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: these people really all hate us. And I'm like yeah,

894
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 2: like you know, a lot of times, a lot of activists,

895
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: like in the ADL, we're saying, oh, it's really white

896
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 2: Christian America who is your enemy. You know, we can

897
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: make all these unholy alliances with all these groups, all

898
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: these far left groups, and all these immigrant right groups,

899
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 2: all these black groups, all these Black Lives Matter groups,

900
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 2: and they're going to be our natural allies because White

901
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 2: Christian America is really your enemy. And they like turned

902
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: right around. They were like wait a second, what And

903
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 2: in the end they were like it doesn't like it.

904
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 2: These people hate us, And I'm like, yeah, you were

905
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 2: never going to be excluded from the whole like uh, decolonization.

906
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 2: Uh effort on the part of the far left, who

907
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 2: hate Christianity, they hate the West, they hate Judaism, they

908
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 2: hate capitalism, Like you're every one of these things and

909
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: you were not going to be exempt because you know

910
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 2: you have a Star of David instead of across.

911
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:33,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, like gays for Palestine. You know, oh

912
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 1: my god.

913
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 2: Some people are so lost, like you're like, there is.

914
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 1: No dude, you know that that's not going to work

915
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 1: out for your.

916
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: I mean I would literally page these people to go

917
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:45,960
Speaker 2: to these places and just like, hey, just hang out

918
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 2: on any round for like a month, ye on your last.

919
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: It's like, dude, It's that's not uh, that's not how

920
00:48:53,200 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 1: it works there. So you like you can go to

921
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,600
Speaker 1: Israel and no problem. But you know, good.

922
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 2: Blue and it's just it's it's this insistency to hate

923
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 2: everything that is a Western value and act a lot.

924
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 2: The essential problem all of with modern day thinking is

925
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: that people think everything good in our society one is

926
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: the natural state of order, and two comes really easy.

927
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 2: And people, because we've become so gluttonous on our own success,

928
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,400
Speaker 2: people do not realize how fragile society is and how

929
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: much time and work it took to build these enormously efficient,

930
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 2: free stables, peaceful, wealthy societies, and if it goes away,

931
00:49:38,600 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 2: it's not like it just automatically pops back up. It

932
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 2: takes enormous sacrifice. And always my big fear is that

933
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 2: we've just become too fat and lazy to preserve our

934
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: own society, which is what we're seeing a lot in Europe,

935
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 2: and we really can't being America. We can't be the place.

936
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,680
Speaker 1: That does that well. And before we go, we'll end

937
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 1: on this, which is you know, probably not a happy

938
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 1: point in them. But I think, you know, you know,

939
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 1: with all the talk of January sixth, which has just

940
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 1: been you know, absolutely relentless Trump Holiday, if if Trump wins,

941
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 1: If Trump wins, I worry Democrats are going to make

942
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: that look like child's play. And you already have people

943
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 1: like Rep. Jamie Ruskin and some of these top Democrats

944
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 1: sort of like sowing doubt about if they're going to accept,

945
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 1: you know, the outcome of the election if Trump wins.

946
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 1: So I worry that, uh, you know, we will see

947
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: like mass writing like we saw during the George Floyd riots.

948
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 1: And you know, yeah I didn't because it was unexpected though, right.

949
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:43,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is why they should do it. I think

950
00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 2: a lot of people do expect it. The betting markets

951
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:48,440
Speaker 2: certainly say Trump's going to win. I think people are

952
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 2: I think the Trump de arrangement thing is real. But

953
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,000
Speaker 2: I think for the Norman people, they've just been exhausted

954
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 2: by it. I think they're genuinely and totally exhausted by the

955
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:02,440
Speaker 2: state of high paper anxiety. I think it really has

956
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 2: worn people to the very very brim, whether like I

957
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 2: just can't do it anymore. So, I don't know, And

958
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: I think that the given the most Democrats are moving

959
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 2: to the right on a number of issues, including Kamalo,

960
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 2: who's like disavowing everything she did in twenty twenty and

961
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 2: seven nineteen, I don't know if we're going to have

962
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 2: a lot of Democratic politicians run and do it. But

963
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: we'll see. I don't. I don't. I don't. I'm going

964
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 2: to be more of an optimist than you on that.

965
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 1: That Oh all right, well, then we are ending on it. Well,

966
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 1: I think Trump's gonna win too, I do. I always

967
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 1: insert the caveat of just you know, they're better at

968
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: the machinery of elections than we are, and they've had

969
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 1: a big cash advantage.

970
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:41,839
Speaker 2: Right, and they haves and stuff like that.

971
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but I do I do think. I do

972
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,919
Speaker 1: believe that the polls are underestimating a support because we've

973
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 1: seen pretty consistently they've done that. And I've also just

974
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 1: you know, heard and I mean just anecdotally, which you know,

975
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: you can only take that so far. But of just

976
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: people who have previously really hated Trumping, like I'm voting

977
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:03,319
Speaker 1: for him, Like I think there'll be people holding their nose.

978
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people, but a lot of

979
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 2: people people, a lot of people. A lot of people

980
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: do things because it feels right, like the right thing

981
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: to do, like supporting Ukraine even though they can't find

982
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 2: on a map, or like, you know, whatever is the thing.

983
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 2: It's a matter of just the person does, like the

984
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 2: Chapel Rome voter who has never voted in her life before,

985
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 2: or the person who just voted in twenty twenty just

986
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,480
Speaker 2: to say I did it, I stuck into fascism. Do

987
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 2: they still show up? You know, That's the big question,

988
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 2: and is as Trump has become more normalized, you know,

989
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:40,759
Speaker 2: especially to minority communities who thought that he was who

990
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 2: was told that he was told he was a racist

991
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 2: beyond belief? Does that tamper or the energy down to say,

992
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 2: you know what, if I miss it, my life's not

993
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 2: going to end. We're not going to put into concentration camps,

994
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 2: as the Love says, We're not going to be our

995
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 2: concerts being destroyed. I could set this one out. I'm

996
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 2: not passionate. I have to go vote to stop the

997
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: next hitler. I don't know if those voters are as

998
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 2: intense as they used to be.

999
00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: Well, the irony is, you know, you look at Pulling

1000
00:53:08,320 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 1: during COVID and I think it was almost half of

1001
00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 1: Democrats or I can't remember the specific number off the

1002
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,479
Speaker 1: top of my head, wanted to put like unvaccinated people

1003
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: like me in camps. So it's like, you know, like,

1004
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:21,680
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure you would do that to us. Yes,

1005
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: and lastly before it is pretty remarkable. If Trump does win,

1006
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 1: which I pray to God he does that, it's not

1007
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: just defeating Kamala Harris. I mean it's defeating almost the

1008
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: entirety of the media. It's having almost been assassinated twice,

1009
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:40,920
Speaker 1: it's have almost been thrown in jail, almost bankrupted almost

1010
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 1: you know, you have big tech again again. It is

1011
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 1: pretty remarkable. It's like a repeat, you know what I mean,

1012
00:53:46,719 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 1: Like it is about something bigger, I think than just

1013
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 1: defeating Kamala Harris.

1014
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's also a change in how Republicans are

1015
00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 2: thought of by a lot of people. It's an energized

1016
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,160
Speaker 2: base of work in class voters. It may be engaged

1017
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 2: minorities in a different way. There's still a lot of

1018
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,839
Speaker 2: work to do with college educated whites. There's a lot

1019
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:09,000
Speaker 2: of work to do still with minorities. There's a lot

1020
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 2: of work to do with engaging non college educated white voters.

1021
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:18,919
Speaker 2: But this he's definitely done far more work than we've

1022
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:21,439
Speaker 2: seen in the last you know, even his first two

1023
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:26,040
Speaker 2: campaigns and definitely his first one with all of these groups.

1024
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 2: But those kinds of things take time, and luckily part

1025
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 2: of it is because of the institutional party doing it,

1026
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 2: and a lot of it is organic. You know, you

1027
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,960
Speaker 2: look at the Bronx. The Bronx doesn't have an actual

1028
00:54:38,000 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 2: Republican party. I mean it's a name only. They don't

1029
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 2: have money, they don't have you know, labor. They have

1030
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:46,840
Speaker 2: won elected Republican all the Bronx, and yet Republican margins

1031
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 2: are growing in every subsequent election in the Bronx. I'm

1032
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:55,360
Speaker 2: almost entirely black and Latino and Jewish if they're white.

1033
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:59,480
Speaker 2: Jewish County a very popular one. It's grown every single

1034
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 2: and it's out Democrats. That will be interesting for political nerds.

1035
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 2: It will be interesting to see like this AOC's district

1036
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 2: under twenty are a lot of super democratic tasors really

1037
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 2: moving to the right. That will be a very big

1038
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:17,839
Speaker 2: telltale sign for the future post this election and post Trump.

1039
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: One day and where can people go in? You're a

1040
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 1: very smart guy. I follow you on Twitter. You always

1041
00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 1: have great information and you've been killing it on CNN.

1042
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: They make me hopefully where could people find your work on.

1043
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 2: Whether it's at Ryan or Dusky. Where I do most

1044
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 2: money social media. And then I have a substack called

1045
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,959
Speaker 2: the National Populist Newsletter. It's like five dollars a month.

1046
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 2: I do a weekly newsletter roundup of the week's news

1047
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 2: that's about populism and nationalism. And then I try to

1048
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 2: get at least one post done during the week about

1049
00:55:50,000 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 2: the election or other countries' elections and some interesting information

1050
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 2: to nerd out on if you like politics.

1051
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,480
Speaker 1: And then you have the seventeen seventy six past.

1052
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 2: Well we're just we just came out to say number

1053
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,879
Speaker 2: twenty four the win. It's a school board pack where

1054
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 2: you're doing thirty seven elections for school board this November

1055
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 2: in Maryland and Arizona. So you can go to seventeen

1056
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 2: seventy six Project pacpacpack dot com, look at our endorsed candidates,

1057
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 2: support them if you live in their districts. And we've

1058
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 2: done over five or six hundred school board elections in

1059
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:21,160
Speaker 2: the last few years. So it's great.

1060
00:56:21,239 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 1: That's really important because I don't know how many times

1061
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 1: people have gone to vote, particularly you know in primaries.

1062
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 1: But also and you have no idea who these people

1063
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 1: are there, you know, and so yeah, and so it's like,

1064
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,040
Speaker 1: you know, you're having to take a lot of time,

1065
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 1: like am I on Google trying to figure out who

1066
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:35,240
Speaker 1: these people are before voting.

1067
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 2: If you are, if you are a Republican for the future,

1068
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 2: if you want to change one voting habit, start voting

1069
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 2: from the bottom of your ballot and go up that way.

1070
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 2: You don't drop off because a lot of people go

1071
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 2: they vote for president and they walk away and they

1072
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 2: miss those really important local elections. Go vote from the

1073
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:51,319
Speaker 2: bottom of the ballot and vote up and start with

1074
00:56:51,360 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 2: your school board. It will actually change your local community

1075
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 2: way more than whoever the president is.

1076
00:56:56,760 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: Well, there you have it, so we're ending on a

1077
00:56:58,120 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 1: positive note. This is good.

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00:57:00,520 --> 00:57:02,560
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Lisa, and this.

1079
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:05,439
Speaker 1: Is so fascinating. I appreciate your time, Thank you those

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00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: Ryan Gerdusky, Appreciate him for taking the time to come

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00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 1: on the show. Appreciate you guys at home for listening

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00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 1: every Monday and Thursday, but you can listen throughout the week.

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00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 1: I want to thank John Cassio and my producer for

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00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,640
Speaker 1: putting the show together. Until next time,