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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning edition of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice Podcast with me Matt Perotz. You guys

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Speaker 2: can follow me on Twitter at sports doc Matt. Each

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Speaker 2: very morning we're here thanks to Bettingpros dot com. Wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your audio for audio podcast, you can find

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice video always on YouTube to get us

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Speaker 2: for this very fun, everyday podcast here in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: rapidly heading towards twenty twenty two. It is the holiday season.

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Speaker 2: It is the gift buying season. If you guys like

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Speaker 2: Fantasypros dot Com slash shop is where to get in

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Speaker 2: don't have some of your gear, why not get some

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Speaker 2: of the gear. And if you do buy a T

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Speaker 2: shirt for yourself or somebody else, definitely screenshot it or

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Speaker 2: send me a link or take a picture or whatever,

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Speaker 2: and I will share it either in the Discord channel

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Speaker 2: or on my Twitter account. We will share all the

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Speaker 2: of ours, and we have international people. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think it ships internationally. I don't know how many different

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Speaker 2: countries we ship to, but Canada, Mexico, I think right

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Speaker 2: at least in the fifty States. For the US, I

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Speaker 2: do know that who we do ship there for US,

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Speaker 2: So fantasypros dot Com slash shop to get in and

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Speaker 2: then to go and search Daily Juice. This T shirt

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Speaker 2: always is normally one of the hottest sellers, so normally

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Speaker 2: it's one under best sellers. You can see the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice T shirt up and about and you guys can

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Speaker 2: be sporting that gear for the holiday season or for

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: All right, so.

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Speaker 2: Last night, one in one we get the Northern Illinois

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Speaker 2: plus ten and a half right both the dogs in

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Speaker 2: the bowl games. Is at a trend to pay attention

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Speaker 2: to underdogs two and zer against the spread. We were

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Speaker 2: way wrong with Toledo. MTSU smacked them around. Big win

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Speaker 2: for MTSU. They were heavy underdogs ten point ten and

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Speaker 2: a half point dogs and they won the game outright,

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Speaker 2: So big win there for MTSU and Middle Tennessee State.

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Speaker 2: So one in one down the jew so losing day,

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Speaker 2: but really not that big of a day. Two half

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Speaker 2: a unit bets so tiny little down basically just completely flat. Okay,

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Speaker 2: welcome to the most insane NFL betting weekend of the year.

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Speaker 2: We were supposed to have Raiders Browns and then Patriots Colts.

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Speaker 2: We will not have Raiders Browns now as that game

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Speaker 2: has now been moved to Monday night, so we have

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Speaker 2: a double header on Monday night. We also have a

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Speaker 2: doubleheader on Tuesday, so we've got NFL football on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Okay,

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Speaker 2: you know, I like betting the NFL, and we're getting

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Speaker 2: to the end of the season. So while it is

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Speaker 2: bowl season, and while I will be involved in certain

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Speaker 2: bowl games and while the NBA is still going on

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Speaker 2: and the NHL is going on, in college football is

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Speaker 2: going on, I'm gonna primarily focus on football, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna focus on the sports that I really enjoy that

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Speaker 2: I like betting on. We've just got a lot of

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Speaker 2: things going on. The Circa Million team. I will post

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice picks coming up for the Circa Million

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Speaker 2: team coming up in in the Discord channel, and I'll

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Speaker 2: give you my own personal team went two and three

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Speaker 2: last week. My own personal team was it wasn't great.

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Speaker 2: We went four and one, four and oh, four and one,

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Speaker 2: five and oh two and three, so we were due

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Speaker 2: for a cool down and we definitely hit unfortunately in

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Speaker 2: the first week of the final the final quarter poll.

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Speaker 1: So we're two and three. We gotta get we basically

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Speaker 1: gotta go.

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Speaker 2: Five and oh the rest of the way if you

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Speaker 2: want to have any shot at cashing in the money

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Speaker 2: for the Final Quarter poll for the Circum Million.

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Speaker 1: But Daily Juice same thing.

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Speaker 2: They've We went two to three for the Daily Juice picks,

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Speaker 2: so we'll try to get rolling here for the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice picks as well. Here for us on a Saturday,

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Speaker 2: three pm Central Pacific time is the deadline, and I

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Speaker 2: will be waiting all the way right before for all

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Speaker 2: this COVID stuff. Who's playing, who's in, who's out? Okay, So,

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Speaker 2: for the most part the game today Patriots Colts, COVID

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Speaker 2: really hasn't been a big factor. Knock on wood, whatever

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Speaker 2: you can knock on Okay. Here is this game between

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Speaker 2: the Patriots and the Colts. Let's go through it.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I've got two plays to give you on this game

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Speaker 2: coming up here today. Patriots are nine and four against

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Speaker 2: the spread. The Colts are eight and five against the spread.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots have won in covered seven consecutive games. The

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Speaker 2: Patriots are six and two against the AFC. They are

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Speaker 2: five to zero against the number over their last five,

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Speaker 2: eight and two against the number. They are last ten,

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Speaker 2: and they are five in one on the road. The

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Speaker 2: Patriots have been a better road team than a home

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Speaker 2: team this year, in particular against the spread. Indianapolis is

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Speaker 2: eight and five against the number. They are six and

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Speaker 2: three against the AFC. They have covered two times in

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Speaker 2: their last three games. They have covered seven times in

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Speaker 2: their last ten, but they are three and four against

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Speaker 2: the number. Here in twenty twenty one, Patriots have beaten Buffalo, Tennessee, Atlanta, Cleveland, Carolina,

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Speaker 2: the Chargers, and the Jets during this stretch. The last

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Speaker 2: time they lost overtime at home to Dallas in a

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Speaker 2: game that they could have won if Bill Belichick didn't

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Speaker 2: punt the football back to Dallas in overtime. But different

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Speaker 2: topic for a different day. He was being the anti

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Speaker 2: Brandon Staley if you remember yesterday's podcast. Indianapolis a little

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Speaker 2: more of an up and down streak for them. They've

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Speaker 2: still been playing pre at four and one over the

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Speaker 2: last five beating Houston, losing to Tampa, beating Buffalo, beating Jacksonville,

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Speaker 2: and beating the New New York Jets. They lost at

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Speaker 2: home last to Tampa and to the Titans. They've lost

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Speaker 2: their last two home games outright. So the Patriots and

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Speaker 2: mac Jones head into this game up against Indianapolis, and

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Speaker 2: everybody's wondering what will the Colts do defensively. Everyone's assuming

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Speaker 2: the Colts are going to try to take away the

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Speaker 2: running attack. And no Damien Harris, he's out for this

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Speaker 2: game for the Patriots due to the hamstring injury he

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Speaker 2: suffered against Buffalo, so he's not playing. But you do

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Speaker 2: have Vermandre Stevenson, you do have JJ Taylor, and you

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Speaker 2: do have Brandon Bolden for the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: So are they going to stack the line? I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I mean, are they Are.

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Speaker 2: They going to try to make the Patriots run the

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Speaker 2: football and say, Okay, we're comfortable being able to slow

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Speaker 2: it down and then make it about mac Jones. The

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Speaker 2: logical theory is that the Colts are going to try

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Speaker 2: to make it about mac Jones. But here's the problem

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Speaker 2: for the Colts. They are currently twenty fifth in the

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Speaker 2: NFL in rushing yards per attempt four point five. They

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Speaker 2: are currently sixteenth in rushing yards per game, given up

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Speaker 2: one hundred and eleven yards a game. On the ground,

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Speaker 2: Patriots run the ball four point two yards per run

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Speaker 2: one and twenty three yards and a half is ninth

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Speaker 2: in the NFL for rushing yards per game for the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: So they can run, They try to run. They ran

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Speaker 2: the ball every time, but three times against Buffalo. Like

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Speaker 2: we know, last time we saw the Patriots before the bye,

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Speaker 2: that's what they did. They ran the ball. They ran

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Speaker 2: the ball right down Buffalo's throat. Now will they do

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Speaker 2: the same thing to the Colts? I don't know, but

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Speaker 2: I definitely think the Patriots are going to test the

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Speaker 2: Colts to see.

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Speaker 1: If can you stop the run?

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Speaker 2: Can you because numbers say you can't. So let's see

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Speaker 2: what happens even without Harris. Romandra Stevens is a really

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Speaker 2: good running back and Jady Taylor is sneaky, So maybe

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Speaker 2: they're like, Hey, we're good with these two guys. We're

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Speaker 2: working on it all during the bye and we're going

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Speaker 2: to have them up and running, and you know, Belichick's

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Speaker 2: gonna have some wacko game plan for this game, just

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Speaker 2: what he does during.

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Speaker 1: The bye week.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Now, the Colts have the number one running attack

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Speaker 2: in the NFL five point one yards per rush. Jonathan

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Speaker 2: Taylor is a beast right one hundred and fifty one

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Speaker 2: yards per game. Patriots on the other side, not that great, okay,

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Speaker 2: four point four yards per run nineteenth best, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fourteen runs yards per game given up.

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Speaker 1: That's eighteenth best. Okay.

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Speaker 2: They are the toughest team to score rushing touchdowns are

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Speaker 2: in the NFL zero point five rushing touchdowns per game

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Speaker 2: given up, so they're difficult to run. To be careful

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Speaker 2: on those Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown props. Be careful about that.

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Speaker 2: Here's the interesting thing about the Patriots and what I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to do. All right, the Patriots have

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Speaker 2: the number one scoring defense in the NFL. Fifteen point

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Speaker 2: four points per game given up, five point zero yards

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Speaker 2: per play given up.

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Speaker 1: That's third best.

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Speaker 2: They give up three hundred and ten yards of offense

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Speaker 2: per game, that's third best in the NFL. I think

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Speaker 2: the Patriots are going to allow the Colts to move

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Speaker 2: the ball between the twenties. I think this is a

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Speaker 2: ben don't break game. I think this is a game

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Speaker 2: with the Patriots are going to try to make the

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Speaker 2: Colts kick field goals and try to find and I

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Speaker 2: think if you find a prop for the Colts over

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Speaker 2: one and a half field goals, I think it's a

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Speaker 2: good bet. And the cult are kicking field goals in

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Speaker 2: this game, Okay, And I don't want to do that,

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Speaker 2: but I think in the red zone, the Patriots are

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Speaker 2: going to clamp down. This game, to me, is going

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Speaker 2: to be decided upon Carson Wentz. Does Carson Wentz turn

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Speaker 2: the football over?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Or no? Carson Wentz?

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Speaker 2: I mean, okay, giveaways a game one point two giveaways

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Speaker 2: per game that's eleventh, middle of the pack. Patriots two

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Speaker 2: takeaways per game, third best in the NFL. Patriots have

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Speaker 2: the number one interception thrown percentage in the NFL. Okay,

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Speaker 2: they pick off four point four percent of passes that

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Speaker 2: are thrown. That is bad news for Carson Wentz, a

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Speaker 2: dude who has been known to throw picks and make

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Speaker 2: bad decisions. The Patriots, I think, are going to try

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Speaker 2: to bait him into red zone mistakes and try to

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Speaker 2: get them the kickfield goals are thrown a double coverage

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Speaker 2: and make mistakes. Okay, I think this is going to

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Speaker 2: be a really low scoring game. The total is creeping up.

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Speaker 2: It was forty five and a half, it's now forty six.

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Speaker 2: Okay that the line has been creeping up slowly. It's

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Speaker 2: been opened at one and a half to two to

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Speaker 2: two and a half. It may close at three. There

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Speaker 2: are a lot of professionals who are on the Colts, Okay,

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Speaker 2: big pro money on the Colts. Hypothetically, let's just say

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Speaker 2: they are right. Okay, let's just say they are right.

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Speaker 2: I am going to go back to a bet that

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Speaker 2: I have not made in a little while because I've

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Speaker 2: been really wrong trying to find the totals, But this

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Speaker 2: game to me screams same game parlay, same game teaser.

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Speaker 1: Rather taking the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: From eight and a half, so from two and a

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Speaker 2: half to eight and a half and taking the total

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Speaker 2: from forty six to fifty two and betting the under.

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Speaker 2: I just can't see this game being a real high

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Speaker 2: scoring game, and I think we're looking at like a

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Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty final. I think it's a tight

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Speaker 2: game one way or the other. Now, I we will

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Speaker 2: have a personal play on the Patriots money line, but

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait and see how many how much value

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Speaker 2: I can get out of this, because if it goes

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Speaker 2: to three, you know, we may get plus one, twenty five,

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Speaker 2: one thirty somewhere in that range for the Patriots on

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Speaker 2: the money line. I think the Patriots are very much

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Speaker 2: alive to win this game. I think they're gonna have

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Speaker 2: chances to win this game. The Colts, I think, are

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Speaker 2: going to be in it as well, and it will

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Speaker 2: come down to Carson Wentz having to make a player two.

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Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be a barn burner of

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Speaker 2: a football game. I just don't see it being high scoring,

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Speaker 2: even though it is in primetime that does scare me, obviously,

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Speaker 2: Like primetimes, are Patriots off a buy? But both these

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Speaker 2: teams are gonna try to run the football, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's gonna be a running clock situation. So while

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Speaker 2: I like the Patriots money line and I will be

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Speaker 2: on that, I'm gonna take the two and a half points,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tease it up to eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the total from forty six, and I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go under. My fear is this And you may go, Matt, wait,

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Speaker 2: it's a forty six total. Why not pull it down

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Speaker 2: to forty and take the over? Maybe? But I also

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Speaker 2: could see a seventeen to fourteen game. Okay, I know

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Speaker 2: it's indoors, but I just have this sneaking suspicion that

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Speaker 2: the Colts defense is going to try to really confuse

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Speaker 2: Mac Jones. And I'm not sure the Patriots are gonna

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Speaker 2: put up a lot of points here in this game.

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Speaker 2: Patriots are ravaging twenty six point nine points per game.

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Speaker 2: I just there's just something that tells me coming out

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Speaker 2: of this that the Colts defense is going to be

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Speaker 2: able to be physical enough with Patriots to slow them

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Speaker 2: down offensively.

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Speaker 1: Again, they're nine to four straight up.

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Speaker 2: But if you look at the Patriots point totals, yes,

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Speaker 2: they scored thirty six points against Tennessee, twenty five points

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Speaker 2: against Atlanta, and forty five points against Cleveland. But generally speaking,

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Speaker 2: this is an offense that scores somewhere between thirteen and

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Speaker 2: twenty seven points, Okay, somewhere in that range. So if

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Speaker 2: they score twenty seven points and they get to twenty four,

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Speaker 2: twenty seven to twenty four, that's fifty one.

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Speaker 1: We're at fifty two, We're okay.

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Speaker 2: But it also could be a fourteen to ten game

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Speaker 2: though it's indoors Okay. It also could be a very

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Speaker 2: low scoring game. And I know the Colts haven't played

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Speaker 2: a ton of games like that this season, But I

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Speaker 2: don't know.

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Speaker 1: I just I don't know.

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Speaker 2: If we get over forty points. I also could see

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Speaker 2: like a twenty four to three win for the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: I know that sounds kind of nuts, but I think

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Speaker 2: that's not out of the question. On the Patriots win

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Speaker 2: this game going away. The one thing I can't see

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Speaker 2: is I can't see the Patriots getting blown out, which

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Speaker 2: again I've been wrong before, Okay, but I think this

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Speaker 2: same game parlay is our teaser is the way to

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Speaker 2: go with this. I'm going Patriots plus eight and a

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Speaker 2: half and I'm taking the total to fifty two and

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet the under for one unit at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty. Now I do have a second play, but

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Speaker 2: it involves the Patriots again, because I think this game

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Speaker 2: is going to be tight. I'm gonna give the Patriots

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Speaker 2: eight and a half points, okay, And I'm gonna go

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Speaker 2: to a teaser on Sunday and I'm gonna take a

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Speaker 2: team I like and I have been liking for a while.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go against the market move here. It's Cincinnati

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Speaker 2: at Denver. Cincinnati on the year six and seven against

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Speaker 2: the number, Denver seven and six against the number, but

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Speaker 2: CINCINNTI on the road is four and two against the

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Speaker 2: spread Denver four and three at home. Last two games

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Speaker 2: both losses for Cincinnati. They lost by three as one

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Speaker 2: point dogs at home to San Francisco and they lost

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Speaker 2: by nineteen laying two and a half against the Chargers

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Speaker 2: Denver up and down two and two in their last four.

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Speaker 2: They beat Detroit by twenty eight points in their last game,

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Speaker 2: but lost by thirteen to Kansas City on the road

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Speaker 2: beat the Chargers by fifteen, and then they beat Philly

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Speaker 2: by seventeen at home, which was kind of the shocker. Look,

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Speaker 2: I think this could be a three point win for

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Speaker 2: the Denver Broncos. But I'm gonna tease this on the

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Speaker 2: other leg, and I'm gonna give Cincinnati nine points, and

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Speaker 2: I think Joe Burrowing Company even at altitude going into Denver,

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Speaker 2: I think they have a chance to stop this two

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Speaker 2: game losing streak.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and again on.

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Speaker 2: The road, they're four and two against the number, so

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Speaker 2: I have a chance to pull this up to nine

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Speaker 2: and go Patriots plus eight and a half Cincinnati plus

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Speaker 2: nine for one unit. If you haven't gotten the theme

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Speaker 2: here as to what I'm gonna try to do, this

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Speaker 2: is a very difficult, very tough, tough, tough week. Okay,

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Speaker 2: there are COVID problems all over the place. I don't

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Speaker 2: know exactly how many straight bets I'll get involved with

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Speaker 2: this week because it's so crazy. This is a monster

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Speaker 2: teaser weekend. This is a monster Like, I mean, if

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Speaker 2: you don't have to bet, you don't have to just

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Speaker 2: because it's gonna be so chaotic and crazy. But I

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Speaker 2: think on Saturday Night Patriots plus eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have two units on it. I get a

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Speaker 2: lot riding on. Obviously, if they get blown out by Indy,

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Speaker 2: I'll be starting the week off on a really big

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Speaker 2: hole and I'll be trying to climb myself out of

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Speaker 2: it coming up on Sunday. But those are the two

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Speaker 2: bets here for the podcast. Patriots plus eight and a

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Speaker 2: half under fifty two teaser same game and Patriots plus

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Speaker 2: eight and a half Cincinnati plus nine all one unit

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Speaker 2: minus one twenty on both those. I will have player

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Speaker 2: props in the Discord channel before Patriots versus the Colts. Okay,

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Speaker 2: field goals for the for the Patriots over one and

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Speaker 2: a half, we've been good with that, right, I think

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Speaker 2: that's good.

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Speaker 1: I think the.

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Speaker 2: Colts over one and a half field goals also think

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Speaker 2: that's good. Okay. I think we're gonna have a chance

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Speaker 2: to get into some unders for Mac Jones potentially, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe under passing attempts for Mac Jones and maybe get

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Speaker 2: into anytime touchdowns. I'm not really sure, but we'll have

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Speaker 2: definite plays for player props in the Discord channel bettingpros

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Speaker 2: dot com dot It's benningpros dot com slash chat or

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Speaker 2: underneath me here on YouTube to get into that here

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Speaker 2: on the video for the Discord channel. Okay, so let's

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Speaker 2: have some fun on a Saturday. No Discord Chat for

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Speaker 2: the next until we get going in in January because

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Speaker 2: I got all sorts of things going on.

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Speaker 1: It's a holiday season. Okay.

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Speaker 2: We saw Santa Claus last night. It was a cool

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Speaker 2: My daughter was all white out, bright eyed and white

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Speaker 2: and got chance to the big guy and that was fun.

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Speaker 2: So have a great holiday season. Hopefully you're enjoying it.

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Speaker 2: But Saturday, Sunday, Monday, a lot of NFL bets coming

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Speaker 2: to you on the Daily Juice Podcast minus Ma Parolt

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Speaker 2: to follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt. Every

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Speaker 2: morning it's the Daily Juice Podcast, always being brought to

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Speaker 2: you by betamjm