1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Kioomberg eleventh Yo to Washington, 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,640 Speaker 1: d C, Bloomberg one to Boston, Bloomberg's Well Hunders to 3 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: San Francisco Bloomberg nine sixty to the Country Series Exam 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: Channel one nineteen and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: Plus Appen Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning. 6 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: I'm Karen Moscow along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee 7 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: and the opening deal brought to you by s EI. 8 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: Today's competitive market place requires asset managers to become more 9 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 1: operationally adept. Imagine transforming your business with that, she asked. 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 1: Global platform at sc SC dot com slash I m 11 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: s and stocks are higher at the open. The sn 12 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: P five hundred up to tenths per cent or three 13 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 1: points to twenty sixty nine down, Jones Industrial average up 14 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 1: two tens per cent or twenty nine points to seventeen thousand, 15 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 1: eight hundred five. Then as d acts up two tens 16 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:56,639 Speaker 1: per cent or nine points to four ten year Treasury 17 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: down one thirty second to yield one eight three percent. 18 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: Yield on the two year points seven eight percent. Now 19 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: I'm x screwed oil down half percent or twenty one 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: cents to seventy one a barrel, comic school a half 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: percent or six dollars ninety cents. Announce the euro An 22 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: dollar fourteen eighty one, the yen one oh six point 23 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 1: six five. Tom and Mike carra Mosco, thank you very much. 24 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: Well after tomorrow, it may be for all intents and 25 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: purposes over we can turn off the political campaign for 26 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: at least a couple of months. The Indiana primary. Donald 27 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: Trump can't get enough delegates to actually claim the title 28 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: clean clean the first ballot nomination, but he will get 29 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: so close that it's almost impossible for him not to 30 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,479 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton, I think ken with the super delegates get 31 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 1: to that level. So uh, then it's on Trump versus Clinton. 32 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 1: Wendy Schiller is a professor of political science and public 33 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: policy at Brown University, and she's been laughing along with 34 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: the rest of us at this campaign. Uh and now 35 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: it gets serious, Wendy, Oh yeah, very soon. Us. Um, 36 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: I think that now, you know, we've been paying so 37 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: much attention to the nominee and the contests and for 38 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: the who the head of the ticket will be, and 39 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: now we really want to look at the underbelly right 40 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: the infrastructure of each of these parties, and see, particularly 41 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,799 Speaker 1: for the Republicans, will that infrastructure really cohere and get 42 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: into gear. And it's not just the elites in terms 43 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: of endorsements, although that's really important. It's on the ground. 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: It's state party chairs, it's county party chairs, it's um raising, 45 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: the kind of money you need for sort of micro targeting. 46 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: All the kinds of things that we've seen Obama and 47 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: somewhat Romney and the r NC ineve get better and 48 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: better at Those are the kinds of things that win 49 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: the general election. So I think that's what we have 50 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 1: to start watching. For example, will elected to come GOP 51 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: people go to the the convention. So I'm wondering if 52 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: Kellyo in New Hampshire or Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, both 53 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: two senators who are up for re election, will they 54 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: sort of say no, it's the home and campaign. Are 55 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: they going to go to the election to the convention. 56 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: We you start seeing a lot of incumbent Republicans not 57 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: attending the convention, then you realize that the party itself 58 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 1: is going to have some real problems in November. That 59 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: seems to be the general consensus. But I guess that 60 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: the Trump people's response to that is everybody has underestimated 61 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: demand throughout the Republican nominating process, So why can't he 62 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: do uh to the rest of the country what he 63 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,239 Speaker 1: has done to the Republican Party. Because the dynamics of 64 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 1: winning the general election, I'm not I'm not discounting that 65 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: Trump can peel away some Democratic Voterstically, he won big 66 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: in Rhode Island, for example, blue collars from a Union 67 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: state among Republicans, so I'm not disputing that he can 68 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: win more votes in places like Michigan, like Indiana, like Illinois, 69 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: like Ohio. But but you need to win the election 70 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: with a whole mess organization. It's not just giving speeches 71 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: to rallies and hoping people decide to show up and 72 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: go for you on election day. To the question for 73 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: Trump is how does he translate stays national charisma among 74 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: his avid supporters and Professor Schuller and it's great to 75 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 1: talk to you with with the in the in the 76 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: Trench's idea of you teaching at Brown University, I was 77 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 1: really taken aback away what you didn't see at the 78 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: White House Correspondence dinner off camera and that was a 79 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 1: secretary carry working the room, Vanessa carry his daughters sitting 80 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,479 Speaker 1: with us, with our Marty Schenker at our Bloomberg table. 81 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: Uh and Vice President Biden is he always does working 82 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:36,479 Speaker 1: the scene. There's no Republican equivalent in Washington. And it 83 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 1: takes me back to Michael Holt's iconic book on the 84 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 1: American Whig Party. Let me cut to the chase, and 85 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: this is um from um Chuck Todd at NBCU. There's 86 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 1: a joke every time he mentions the Whig Party, they 87 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: have shots of whiskey over at NBC. Is this the 88 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,360 Speaker 1: American Whig Party? Is Michael Holt's American Whig Party happening 89 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 1: right now? It's amazing because a few people have come 90 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: up to me in the last two weeks or three 91 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 1: weeks and made that very analogy. Um. And so I 92 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 1: think what you're seeing is a party that tied itself 93 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: to a particular ideology in a particular strategy, like the Whigs, 94 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: and then the country changed out from under them, and 95 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 1: they didn't adapt the party policy and the strategy. And 96 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: that's what's happening to the Republicans now. Changes happening faster 97 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: than any of us can imagine socially on the ground 98 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: in terms of public opinion, in terms of attitudes, and 99 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: change is hard for some people, there's no question about that. 100 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: But the party itself has to adapt, and that's what 101 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 1: the Whigs did. They just simply did not adapt to 102 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: the underlying you know, fissures or factions in their own party, 103 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: and they ended up sort of disappearing. I don't think 104 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: that's gonna happen to the Publican Party. I think you've 105 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: got a few very challenged to more people. I think 106 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: Paul Ryan still is somewhat the future of the Unified 107 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: Republican Party moving forward. The question is can he produce 108 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: anything that people can consume as an actual policy output 109 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: from the Republican Party. Where's their Henry Clay Well, you know, 110 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: I think in this day age of media celebrity, right 111 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: because Donald Trump is doing so well, we need one 112 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 1: person who's going to really take us to the Promised 113 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: Land and a party. But I'm not sure that's the 114 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: way parties work anymore. And I think that the country 115 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: and the government is so big and so complicated that 116 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 1: what we're seeing now is people want a government that's functions, 117 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: not necessarily really huge government, not the government Democrats have 118 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: necessarily delivered, but they don't want a government that does nothing, 119 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: and the Republicans are paying the price for their obstructionism. 120 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: It was an electoral strategy that worked really well to 121 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: incite their conservative base on the Tea Party and win elections. 122 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: But now they're not governing and people are finally paying 123 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: attention to that. Michael I just put out on Twitter 124 00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 1: American Whig Party Michael Holt's efforts and it's nine pages. 125 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: It's when when when they gives it over the two 126 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: week Christmas break at Brown here read this book over 127 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: over Christmas. Well, it raises a question when off if 128 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: the if the Republican Party were to adapt in a 129 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: way that the Whig Party did not, what would they 130 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: adapt to? What would they stand for? Which wing of 131 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: the party would be predominant? Well right now, I mean 132 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: I think this is what the biggest test of November 133 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: will show is you've got a whole different demographics electorate. 134 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: It is not night it is not you know, the 135 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: raging election versus Carter and John Anderson. This is not 136 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: the demographic anymore. And the increasingly large numbers, Uh, there's 137 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: just a statistic doubt that the millennials will now replace 138 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: the bandy boomers as the largest populated, you know, category 139 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: of people and their attitude. They're different about what they 140 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: want from government. So the Republicans have to say, listen, 141 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: we're gonna do it better and smarter and smaller and 142 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: more efficiently. That's what we're gonna do. We're gonna stay 143 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: out of your private life, and we're basically going to 144 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: try to make government use your tax dollars. Wisely, that 145 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: to me would be something that would appeal to the millennials. 146 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 1: And certainly Latinos are aligned with the Democratic Party immigration, 147 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: but also tend to be somewhat conservative and other realms. 148 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: So I think you could graft the policy, and I 149 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: think you, like Jeff Waite from Arizona, that's kind of 150 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: the future of the party. Paul Ryan. There are plenty 151 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: of people I think you can get out there. The 152 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: question did you have to deliver a product? And right 153 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 1: now they're delivering no, girl, very quickly here, not enough time. 154 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: I'll have you back on, Professor Schiller, where did oh 155 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: two blocks? Excuse me again, John Tucker, can you be 156 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: sure the peanut colada next time? Don't get it? With 157 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 1: the umbrellas. I'm just back, just drinking. Professor Schiller, let's 158 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: come back because I got a question on losing gracefully, 159 00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:45,319 Speaker 1: on exiting gracefully. It's an art that there used to be, 160 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: and Mike, it seems to have like evaporated. We don't 161 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: Monday Schiller with Brown University and will continue this discussion 162 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:58,839 Speaker 1: if I could keep my head screwed on on on 163 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: one day, job's week, uh job's week here and on Friday, 164 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: we'll have our usual esteem guests as we consider the 165 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: American economy. Dal Green on the screen up VIC fifteen 166 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 1: point seven nine. All right, now it's time to check 167 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:19,959 Speaker 1: in with Michael bar and get the latest world of 168 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: national headlines. Mike, tom, thank you very much. Republican presidential 169 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 1: front runner Donald Trump hopes to give the virtual knockout 170 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: blow the rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasik in tomorrow's 171 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,679 Speaker 1: Indiana primary. Trump can't win enough votes to clinch the nomination, 172 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: but he can pat his lead with a strong showing 173 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: in Indiana. Trump now has his site set on Democratic 174 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,079 Speaker 1: rival Hillary Clinton, who once again said she would have 175 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: very little support if she weren't a woman. She's playing 176 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: the woman's cut and I watched her speeches, and I 177 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: watched what she said, and we're right now making a 178 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: list of many, many times where it's all about her 179 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: being a woman, and frankly, if she doesn't do very 180 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,199 Speaker 1: well with women. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton told the crowd last 181 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: night at the Double a CPS Fight for Freedom Fund 182 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: dinner in Detroit that we cannot let Barack Obama's legacy 183 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: fall into Donald Trump's hands. Benton says, we've got some 184 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: candidates in this race who are trying to divide us, 185 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: still hatred and incite violence. The governor of Porto Rico 186 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 1: says the US territory will not make nearly three hundred 187 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: seventy million dollars in bond payments due today because it 188 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: can't do so without cutting essential services. Island officials spent 189 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 1: the weekend trying to negotiate a settlement that would have 190 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: avoided the default, but apparently came up short. Global News 191 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four 192 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus 193 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: from around the world. I'm Michael Barr. To Michael, thanks 194 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,360 Speaker 1: so much on d X y dollar Week or tot 195 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: eight four on the Blendid Dollar Index. Yeah and one 196 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: oh six sixty four with Wendy Schiller of Brown University. 197 00:10:55,280 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Worldwide. Bloomberg Anillance is brought to you by 198 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: Mercedes Ben's outstanding offers are in full. Bloom Your Mercedes 199 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: Ben's Tri state dealers take advantage of limited time lease 200 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: in finance programs out select models in this spring season. 201 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: Visit m b USA dot com for details. Today Global 202 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, 203 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: the Radio plus Mobil Act and on your radio this 204 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:28,319 Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and on Karen Moscow. This 205 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: updates brought to you by National Railty Returns on cash 206 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: and rented real estate find them at n r i 207 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: A dot net. US shares are higher following the worst 208 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: week since February and emerging market assets retreated as investors 209 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: paired back higher risk holdings. With many markets across the 210 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: world closed for holiday, Schoold is advancing with sovereign bonds 211 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 1: who checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. 212 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: On Bloomberg, SNP five hundred, up a tenth of a 213 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 1: percent of two points now at seven down Jones industrial average. 214 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: Now that'll changed up eight points to seventeen thousand, seven 215 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: an hundred eighty one, and then as dacts little changed 216 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,599 Speaker 1: at forty seven seventy five ten year treasury down to 217 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: thirty seconds, the yield one point eight four percent, the 218 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 1: yield on the two year point seven eight percent. N 219 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: i'm ex screwed oil down one and a half percent, 220 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: or sixty nine cents, to forty twenty three A barrel 221 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,400 Speaker 1: comes gold is up half percent or six dollars thirty 222 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: cents at twelve ninety six eighty announced the euro at 223 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: other fourteen eighty eight the end one of six point 224 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: six nine. Haliverton and Baker Hughes called off their twenty 225 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: eight billion dollar merger that faced stiff resistance from regulators 226 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: in the U S and Europe over antitrust concerns. A 227 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: day after the merger was called off, Baker Hughes said 228 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: it will buy back shares and debt with a three 229 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 1: and a half billion dollar breakup fee it's to do 230 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: this week. The company also said it will cut costs 231 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: as it focuses on new products for well drilling and production. 232 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: It shares up one percent this morning and that's a 233 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike kurn I thanks so much. 234 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: Walking around the halls of the Hilton in Washington this weekend, 235 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: Michael McKee, you saw all sorts of brass and military uh, 236 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,400 Speaker 1: standing tall and out in force, and I sort of 237 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,599 Speaker 1: was looking at all the military breast, going who's the 238 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: VP candidate? Uh to lend luster in aura, And of 239 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: course it goes back to our encyclopedic knowledge of Benjamin Harrison. 240 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:17,079 Speaker 1: It was a current al lot of the Civil War 241 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: general as well. But when in doubt, hire somebody with 242 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: medals on his chest, Well, whether that's possible or not, well, 243 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: let's ask Wendy Wendy Shoulders, the professor of political side 244 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 1: at Brown University. A story on the front page of 245 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: the New York Times this weekend said Republicans are running 246 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:40,679 Speaker 1: the other way when it comes to the possibility that 247 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: they could be tapped to pete Donald Trump's vice presidential candidate. Well, yeah, 248 00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: I mean I think that both Trump and Clinton have 249 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: to basically skew younger. I don't think that's news to anybody, 250 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: not that age is a big issue, but when you 251 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: have candidates that are on the older side, then people 252 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 1: are looking for some reason. Arran says Romney did with 253 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 1: Paul Ryan, and Obama went in the opposite direction with 254 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: Joe Biden about balancing that ticket, so skewing younger. I 255 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,199 Speaker 1: think it's probably pretty obvious for both candidates, and I 256 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,079 Speaker 1: think you have to figure out what your future is 257 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: in politics. I mean, Trump is managing to be the nominee, 258 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 1: and so I wouldn't be supposed ive he goes way 259 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: outside the box to pick the VP, even though he 260 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 1: has said he wants somebody you can handle the legislative 261 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 1: heavy lifting to get things done. He wants to get 262 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:30,920 Speaker 1: done with Congress. Trump is arguably the most unqualified person 263 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 1: ever to run for president. I don't know about that, 264 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: but I want to ask rich history in America. I'm 265 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: not where you would put him on the list now. 266 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: Part of the problem is is, uh, times have changed 267 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 1: and we're not picking people in smoke filled rooms anymore. Um, 268 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: you know there are people like Franklin Pearson. You gotta 269 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: put warren't Harding way up there. So, uh, you know, 270 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: where would you put him on the list of people 271 00:14:56,480 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: who well who ran for president? Well, he doesn't have 272 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: any you know, government experience, right, so we've had I 273 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: mean especially post World War Two. I mean before that, 274 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: it was there was government experience, but it was a 275 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: bit of a mixed bag. Now really most people come 276 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: through some sort of political elected office line to run 277 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: for president, and uh, you know, but somebody said to 278 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: me the other day, who's who admittedly voted for bows 279 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: Obama and Romney believe or not, uh said in different elections, 280 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,360 Speaker 1: obviously said that he thinks Trump can build things. He 281 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: knows how to build things, he knows how to cut deals, 282 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: he knows how to get things done. And I think 283 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: there's a general sense among a lot of people, particularly Independence, 284 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: that government has ceased to function in Washington, and they 285 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: need somebody who's from the outside, who isn't vested, isn't embedded, 286 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: isn't entrenched, and will try to actually get things done. 287 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,440 Speaker 1: And I think that's where the Republicans have to decide 288 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: if they want to get out ahead of Trump, what 289 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 1: would they get done if he actually got elected, And 290 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 1: how do they sell themselves on that message, particularly to independence. 291 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: Trump's got a particular base. I don't think he can 292 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: win the general with the people he's got. Now he's 293 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: got to expand that base somehow, And I think suburban, 294 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: better educated, better off and uh, independent voters are really 295 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: where he has an opportunity if he can tone down 296 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: and self discipline, but also if he figures out what 297 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: the message will be and he shows no signs about him. 298 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: Use an analogy and you say something like China is 299 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 1: wiping the United States when you've got in favorables among women, 300 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:30,600 Speaker 1: just shows absolute either disregard or a complete lack of 301 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: self discipline about how you're using English language. And I 302 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: think he can't win the journal that way. And but 303 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: that's not to say he couldn't win, it's to say 304 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,960 Speaker 1: he has to figure out what he would Actually the 305 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: dynamic of what you just carefully stated is you must 306 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 1: shift at some point. When does that shift occur? Based 307 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: on your reading of modern presidential history, the shift pretty 308 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: much occurs pretty the day of the day after you 309 00:16:57,120 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: reach that magic number of delegates, right once you know 310 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 1: he's got the nomination. And the problem for Trump is, 311 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: even if he gets the number, it's not clear on 312 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: the first ballot that he's actually going to get the votes. 313 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: So he's got to get through that first ballot at 314 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: the convention and win the n and then he shifts, 315 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,479 Speaker 1: and I expected him to shift, But that doesn't mean 316 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 1: I'll become more to self discipline. He can shift the 317 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: message and what he talks about. But when we go 318 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: off again and again and keep insulting people, and I 319 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: think that's I mean, can you get out of his 320 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: own lie? He on the on the talk shows yesterday, 321 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: he suggested, no, it would be the answer to that 322 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 1: question because it was all about him accusing Hillary Clinton 323 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: horror of horrors of being a woman. Um. And that's 324 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: I can't imagine that's going to play with the majority 325 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 1: of people who vote in this country. Um. But it 326 00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 1: does suggest this is going to be a very less 327 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: than edifying campaign. Yes, but again he has surprised a 328 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 1: lot of people, and you know, he it's possible if 329 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: the poll numbers actually start to shift and he sees 330 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: some possibility of winning this election, he might actually contain 331 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: himself and try to win the election. Let's not forget money. 332 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: You know that all the papers and all the you know, 333 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 1: observers have said that the really wealthy Republican donors are 334 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: sitting it out for now. They're not even giving the 335 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: Senate campaigns. They're just not giving money. So who's going 336 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 1: to pay for this effort to win the White House 337 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: for Donald Trump? Donald Trump claims heal papers far he's 338 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: not spending the money. Okay, that that's come up a 339 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,119 Speaker 1: couple of times in the weekend. If that's the case, 340 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: who will pay to assist Mr Trump in his national right? Right? 341 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: And you need a billion dollars minimally, And is he 342 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: gonna spend a billion of his own? Where is he 343 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 1: going to get that money? I can't figure where is 344 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,360 Speaker 1: he going to get that money? Well, he's told everybody 345 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:43,120 Speaker 1: he's you know, I love the line. You know he's 346 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,440 Speaker 1: made he's made ten billions. Of course we know he's 347 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: lost a lot of that ten billion. So if he's 348 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: even got assets worth a couple of billion, but don't 349 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,359 Speaker 1: say liquid, right, So who's And that's what people who 350 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 1: want to watch this selection pay attention to the movement 351 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: of money. Where donors are giving the money. Are they 352 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: taking themselves out of the presidential game and only focusing 353 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: on Congress? And if that starts to look clear in July, 354 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: then I think you've got a real challenge. Has got 355 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: no money to our national audience, indeed international audience, and 356 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,479 Speaker 1: many people that do support Mr Trump and his effort. 357 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: What does he have to give up in his discourse 358 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 1: and platform to bring in the big hitters who will 359 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,920 Speaker 1: write and collect the big checks misogyny and racism. To 360 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: put it bluntly, he has to do his speech where 361 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 1: he recants a lot of what he said. Well, he 362 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: doesn't even have to recant it. Americans. You know, it's 363 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: the summertime, so we was good. Most folks are going 364 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: to try to go on vacation if they can, so, 365 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: I mean, I think, you know, a little bit of 366 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: vacation because we know that the working wages haven't gone 367 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 1: up enough and people don't have luxuries. But nonetheless, it's 368 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: just going to be the summertime. People will revisit the 369 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,560 Speaker 1: selection early September. He's got some time to just stop 370 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 1: saying the things he says and start saying different things. 371 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: But if September, maybe people will sort of say, oh, 372 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 1: he's not that bad. If he's not going to do 373 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: the wall, then he loses all the people that voted 374 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: for him. He's a persuasive guy when he wants to be. 375 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 1: I'm sure he'll come up with a good explanation list, 376 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 1: and he shouldn't. I mean, he can't. I don't think 377 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 1: you human Latinos. I think that ship is sailed, not 378 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 1: just the wall, not just insulting Mexicans in particular, but 379 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 1: also just basically disparaging what he knows as a group. 380 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 1: I don't think you can get them back. But you know, 381 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: it's not clear the Republicans can get them back anyway. 382 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: They voted for Obama twenty twelve. Here's here's the thing. Uh, 383 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:31,639 Speaker 1: every fact checking site out there in fact checks the 384 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: politicians on the campaign trail has has said that he 385 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: is the biggest liar they have ever seen. And but 386 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: you observe politics, I mean, I don't know do we 387 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: want to get into that contest? You know which competition is. 388 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: But in other words, are the are the American people 389 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: that dumb that he can completely change? Say that, don't 390 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: say that the American people are dumb. People are genuinely frustrated, 391 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: partially because they have not advanced the way they want 392 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 1: to economically or they don't see a feature, but partially 393 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 1: because they've been pulled by the Republican Party per se, 394 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: not effectively countered by the Democrats. That government doesn't work 395 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: and you're not doing well in the country. Can shape. 396 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: So they're starting to believe it, and we shouldn't be 397 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: surprised by that. In the minute that we've got left, 398 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: David Rothschild of Microsoft has a wonderful effort called predict 399 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: Wise out there that sums up all the polling. It 400 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: shows the Democrats rolling over from a very lofty level 401 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 1: to seventy winner and the Republican at thirty a little 402 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,440 Speaker 1: bit better than they were doing an X number of 403 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: weeks ago. What does a Secretary Clinton not want to 404 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: do so that gap narrows. What does she need to 405 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 1: avoid at so much being part of the front runner, 406 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 1: isn't it? I think she needs to avoid being pulled 407 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,879 Speaker 1: too far left at the convention and beforehand. To appease 408 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 1: Sanders voters, I think she's gonna have to find a 409 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: way to address them and their issues of concern, but 410 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: not sign on to the policies that he's espoused, because 411 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: those of all raising taxes, those of all the government. 412 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: I think that's going to get out some kins in trouble. 413 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 1: So she has to say I care about the particular issues. 414 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,719 Speaker 1: His solution is not my solution. Figure out that's her 415 00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: big tricky balancing Wendy Shoulder with us. She's chair of 416 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: the Political Science Department, Brown University. Adapted talking the politics 417 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: of the nation and for that matter, of the Department 418 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: of Political Science of Brown University as well. Wendy Shoulder 419 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,920 Speaker 1: of Brown, UM, what a wonderful day it's been the 420 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,200 Speaker 1: market of twenty seven blunk surveillance