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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in a reflective mood as

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Speaker 2: her decades long career in public service comes to an end.

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Speaker 3: I just could not feel more positively about the contributions

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Speaker 3: that good economic policy making can contribute to American welfare.

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Speaker 2: Yellen's path to the Treasury Department has been paved with

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Speaker 2: some of the biggest and highest profile jobs in government.

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Speaker 2: She was President Clinton's chief economic advisor, a Federal Reserve governor,

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Speaker 2: and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: President Obama picked her to be the Fed's Vice chair

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Speaker 2: than chair, she is the first and only woman to

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Speaker 2: have had that job, and the first and only woman

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Speaker 2: to be Treasury Secretary, where she oversees a very broad portfolio.

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Speaker 2: This week I traveled to Washington to interview Yellen live

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Television and Radio and now.

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Speaker 3: Our exclusive interview with Bloomberg's David Gourr. He sat down

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Speaker 3: with the Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as her post nears

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Speaker 3: and then let's take a listen.

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Speaker 4: Here in the Treasure Department with Secretary Janet Yellen. Great

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Speaker 4: to be with you and there's a lot I hope

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Speaker 4: to cover.

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Speaker 2: We talked about the economic warfare the US is waging

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Speaker 2: in support of Ukraine, about Yellen's work on US China policy.

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Speaker 2: Then when that live interview ended, we kept talking. Okay,

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Speaker 2: we can continue now if we have for a few

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Speaker 2: more moments. Thank you, about what she's accomplished and hasn't

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Speaker 2: about threats to the Fed's independence, and many of the

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Speaker 2: economic policies President elect Trump has put forward.

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Speaker 1: This is the big take from Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 2: I'm David Gera, and today on the show, an exit

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Speaker 2: interview with the seventy eighth Secretary of the Treasury, Jennet Yellen.

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Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary Jane Yellen and I talked just a couple

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Speaker 2: hours after we got the latest inflation report. The consumer

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Speaker 2: price index for the month of November was in line

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Speaker 2: with what economists expected. Prices ticked higher from October and

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Speaker 2: on an annual basis. The last time we spoke, back

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Speaker 2: in September, Yellen told me she was optimistic the Federal

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Speaker 2: Reserve would be able to pull off a soft landing

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Speaker 2: policymakers could get inflation under control without triggering a deep downturn.

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Speaker 2: I asked her if she's still confident that'll happen.

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Speaker 3: Well, Look, I think inflation has come down very substantially

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Speaker 3: from the peaks it reached in twenty twenty one. In

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, we're still a bit above but getting

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Speaker 3: pretty close to the fid's two percent objectives. And I

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Speaker 3: believe that the FED will continue to focus on inflation

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Speaker 3: and take what if her actions proved to be necessary

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Speaker 3: to keep inflation hitting toward their two percent target. We've

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Speaker 3: been very fortunate so far that it hasn't been necessary

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Speaker 3: to weaken the economy or create higher unemployment to accomplish that,

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Speaker 3: and I hope that continues to be the case.

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Speaker 2: Jenny Yellen led the Federal Reserve from twenty fourteen to

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Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, and given that, I wanted to get her

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Speaker 2: thoughts on FED independence. President elect Trump has openly criticized

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Speaker 2: the current FED chair, Jerome Powell, and Trump says a

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Speaker 2: president should be able to weigh in on FED policies.

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Speaker 4: Are you confident that the FED will be able to

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Speaker 4: withstand a more actively involved administration or other kinds of

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Speaker 4: political pressures.

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Speaker 3: Well. Independence is absolutely central to the Fed's effectiveness, and

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Speaker 3: I believe it's important that it remains an independent institution,

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Speaker 3: that politics don't enter its making, and it remains accountable

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Speaker 3: to Congress to explain how it's pursuing the goals that

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Speaker 3: Congress is assigned to it. And in the area of

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Speaker 3: monetary policy, it's price stability and maximum employment. And I

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Speaker 3: spent many years of my career at the FED, and

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Speaker 3: I can tell you that the FED is not a

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Speaker 3: political institution and politics don't matter to its decision making.

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Speaker 3: It's a highly professional organization with a very strong staff

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Speaker 3: and a diverse group of policymakers who are trying their

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Speaker 3: lowful best to figure out, given all the uncertainties afflicting

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Speaker 3: the economy, what is the best path to achieve these

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Speaker 3: goals and manage trade offs that they may face. And

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Speaker 3: I think they've done a good job. And what general

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Speaker 3: research shows is that independent central banks end up delivering

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Speaker 3: better macroeconomic results, and not only on inflation, which you

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Speaker 3: would expect, but also on real economic performance. And so

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Speaker 3: you know, over the last oh I would say, thirty

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Speaker 3: or forty years, the trend all around the globe has

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Speaker 3: been toward shoring up the independence of central banks, and

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Speaker 3: there's been a payoff. And I don't think that that's

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Speaker 3: going to change.

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Speaker 2: Jerome Powell's term as fedchair isn't up until twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 2: and in a recent interview, President elect Trump says he

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Speaker 2: has no plans to try to replace Powell before then.

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Speaker 2: But a proposal that's gotten some attention by Scott Besson,

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Speaker 2: Trump's pick to succeed Yell in the Treasury is for

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Speaker 2: Trump to appoint a shadow fedchair.

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Speaker 4: Do you see that as being just a potential nuisance

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Speaker 4: or is there real risk to having somebody who's opining

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Speaker 4: with some sense of authority about is monetary policy.

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Speaker 3: I think that this would create a great deal of confusion.

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Speaker 3: And the AFORMC that makes monetary policy is a very

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Speaker 3: capable and non political body, and I believe that they

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Speaker 3: would go on and make the best possible decisions then

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Speaker 3: they can, and would not be influenced by somebody outside

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Speaker 3: the FED who was trying to play such a role.

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Speaker 3: I think it could disrupt financial markets and have an

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Speaker 3: adverse effect on economic performance. In the end, I don't

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Speaker 3: think it would influence the FED.

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Speaker 4: There's been a lot of talk about the dollar, the

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Speaker 4: safety of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and

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Speaker 4: I wonder if that's something that you think American should

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Speaker 4: be preoccupied with, it's something that we hear about from

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Speaker 4: the President elect and his team. Something else they've floated,

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Speaker 4: as it's been put a mar Lago accord where you

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Speaker 4: could get the US together with Europe and China and

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Speaker 4: Japan maybe talk about domestic production had narrowed a trade deficits.

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Speaker 4: Is there an appetite or an opportunity for that.

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Speaker 3: The use of the dollar in global transactions and financial

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Speaker 3: markets and in trade is underpinned by a very strong

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Speaker 3: US economy with deep and liquid capital markets, the role

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Speaker 3: of treasuries as the safest asset in the world, the

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Speaker 3: role of law, a well managed economy with low inflation

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Speaker 3: and solid macroeconomic policy. And when you think about what

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Speaker 3: other currencies could possibly replace the dollar, the list is short.

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Speaker 3: Possibly there is no currency that at this point could

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Speaker 3: possibly rival the dollar. And in terms of an agreement

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Speaker 3: that could affect the value of the dollar, you know,

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Speaker 3: the policy that our administration has articulated is that major

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Speaker 3: country should have the value of their currencies determined in

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Speaker 3: world markets. So intervention might be appropriate on occasion to

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Speaker 3: counter extreme volatility, but we believe that it's best for

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Speaker 3: markets to determine the value of the dollar.

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Speaker 2: Coming up as Janet Yellen's tenure as Treasury Secretary comes

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Speaker 2: to an end, how she's trying to protect some of

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Speaker 2: the policies she's put in place, Trump proofing at the

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Speaker 2: Treasury Department, Plus Yellen's thoughts on tariffs, the future of

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Speaker 2: the relationship between the US and China, and her legacy.

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Speaker 1: That's after the break.

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Speaker 2: As Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen has played a big role

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Speaker 2: on the world stage. After Russia launched its full scale

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Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, she worked with

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Speaker 2: allies to impose a spate of sanctions. Right before my interview,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg reported the Biden administration is considering more sanctions, targeting

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Speaker 2: Russia's oil exports and its shadow fleet of oil tankers,

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Speaker 2: which have been an economic lifeline. I asked the Secretary

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Speaker 2: if she could confirm that those discussions are underway.

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Speaker 3: Well, let me say, we never preview sanctions, and we've

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Speaker 3: constantly been tightening our sanctions on Russia. Our overall aim

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Speaker 3: is to impair Russia's ability to continue conducting this brutal war,

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Speaker 3: to try to deny it the military equipment. It needs

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Speaker 3: to be able to do that, and we've taken a

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Speaker 3: variety of steps to do it. But we have been

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Speaker 3: focused since the outset on Russian oil revenue. It's a

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Speaker 3: critical component of the Russian budget. Now, what's unusual about

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Speaker 3: this moment is that the oil market seems to be

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Speaker 3: well supplied.

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Speaker 5: Prices are relatively cheap.

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Speaker 3: Prices are relatively low. Global demand is down, and there

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Speaker 3: really has been an increase in supply. American firms have

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Speaker 3: stepped up, we have vastly expanded oil production. OPEC countries

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Speaker 3: like Saudi Arabia have excess capacity at this time. So

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Speaker 3: the global oil market is softer and that creates possibly

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Speaker 3: an opportunity.

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Speaker 5: Let me pivot to China. And this has been a relationship.

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Speaker 4: I think you've invested a lot of time and energy

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Speaker 4: in kind of rebuilding a conduitive communication between Washington and Beijing.

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Speaker 4: How much does that concern you if the efforts that

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Speaker 4: you've put in to rehabilitate that relationship go to the wayside.

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Speaker 3: So I do think it's important to have ongoing communications

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Speaker 3: at all levels, from the President and she talking to

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Speaker 3: senior US officials to staff that need to communicate. Just

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Speaker 3: having open channels of communication. I believe it will be

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Speaker 3: seen as continuing to offer value. These are channels by

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Speaker 3: which we can make clear what we're unhappy about, where

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Speaker 3: our concerns are, and why we have them. We have

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Speaker 3: significant concerns about Russia's economic policies that we discuss in

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Speaker 3: these channels. We're also using these channels to build trust,

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Speaker 3: in channels for cooperation so that we can work together

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Speaker 3: where our interests coincide. So there's no question that we

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Speaker 3: have serious concerns, both from a national security point of

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Speaker 3: view and a broader economic view with China's behavior, but nevertheless,

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Speaker 3: is the two largest economies in the world. It's critical

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Speaker 3: to have open channels of communication. It helps avoid misunderstandings.

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Speaker 2: Given the relationship she's developed with Chinese policymakers, I asked

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Speaker 2: Yellen what insights she has into how they may respond

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Speaker 2: in the phase of President elect Trump's recent threats to

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Speaker 2: impose broad, punitive tariffs on the US's biggest trading partners,

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Speaker 2: including China.

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Speaker 3: Well, I really don't want to make a forecast. Many countries,

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Speaker 3: when they're faced with unilateral actions of that sort, look

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Speaker 3: for ways to retaliate. My guess would be that they

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Speaker 3: would do that we have in areas of concern where

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Speaker 3: I've expressed repeatedly concerns with over capacity that is developed

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Speaker 3: in Chinese advanced manufacturing industries and clean energy semiconductors and

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Speaker 3: the like. We think it reflects active large subsidies that

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Speaker 3: are flooding the world with exports and threaten to drive

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Speaker 3: our firms out of business, and areas that we think

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Speaker 3: are critical to our own future. We have put in

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Speaker 3: place tariffs now they're strategic. They affected eighteen billion dollars

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Speaker 3: worth of trade, certainly not all of our trade with China,

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Speaker 3: but broad based tariffs. Almost all economists agree that what

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Speaker 3: they will do is hurt us by raising prices, possibly substantially,

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Speaker 3: and making it more expensive for firms that need inputs

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Speaker 3: from China to be able to acquire them, and harm

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Speaker 3: more competitiveness of firms that rely on those imports.

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Speaker 4: The person that Donald Trump is named is your presumptive successor, Scott.

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Speaker 4: Doesn't it suggested that he wants to cut the deficit

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Speaker 4: in half by twenty twenty eight?

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Speaker 5: Is that necessary? Is that even possible?

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Speaker 4: I guess what I'm asking more broadly, is how worried

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Speaker 4: are you about the fiscal outlook at this point in time.

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Speaker 3: Well, I am concerned about the fiscal outlook, and I

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Speaker 3: believe the deficit reduction is necessary to keep us on

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Speaker 3: a sustainable fiscal course. Now, Congress hasn't really done anything

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Speaker 3: to improve the fiscal outlook, and I think that's a shame.

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Speaker 3: I'm disappointed in that, and I think Congress needs to

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Speaker 3: work hard on that. We proposed a lot of pay

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Speaker 3: for us that we think would fairly ask corporations, wealthy

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Speaker 3: individuals to pay their fair share. We've negotiated an international

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Speaker 3: tax agreement that would create a level playing field worldwide

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Speaker 3: for multinationals, and that would be a revenue raising measure

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Speaker 3: that I think would be very valuable. And there is

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Speaker 3: certainly more.

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Speaker 2: Jimmy Allen has had a path breaking career. I closed

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Speaker 2: out our conversation by asking her what she's reflecting on

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Speaker 2: as she wraps up decades in public service.

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Speaker 3: I feel terrific about the opportun tunities that I've had

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Speaker 3: over the last four years to serve at Treasury and

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Speaker 3: before that at the Federal Reserve in the Council of

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Speaker 3: Economic Advisors during the Clinton years, and I just could

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Speaker 3: not feel more positively about first of all the contributions

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Speaker 3: that good economic policy making can contribute to American welfare.

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Speaker 3: But beyond that, we have an excellent group of senior

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Speaker 3: officials that we brought in.

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Speaker 1: But what we found at.

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Speaker 3: Treasury and have built is a civil servants who have

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Speaker 3: deep expertise, knowledge, commitment, operate with integrity, and are able

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Speaker 3: to do the kind of analysis and operational management that

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Speaker 3: really serves our economy, will and financial markets. And this

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Speaker 3: is a core asset of America that we have a

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Speaker 3: devoted civil service that has great expertise and contributes to

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Speaker 3: good performance. So as I look back on my career,

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Speaker 3: that's really been important to me that.

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Speaker 5: In Secretary, Thank you very much, Thank you.

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Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

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Speaker 2: This episode is produced by Alex Segura, who also mixed

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Speaker 2: and sound designed it. It was edited by Chris Antsy

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Speaker 2: and Naomi Shavin, who's our senior producer. It was fact

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Speaker 2: checked by Adriana Tapia. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso,

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Speaker 2: Our executive producer is Nicole Beamster Bor and Sage Bauman

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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg's.

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Speaker 1: Head of Podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and

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Speaker 2: review The Big Take. Wherever you listen to podcasts that

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Speaker 2: helps people find the show.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.