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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing, so.

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Speaker 1: I'm sitting it to cash stop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to Wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabay you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are way.

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Speaker 1: Happy holidays everyone, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 1: Week thirteen betting preview. Today. Of course we're gonna build

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Speaker 1: a special holiday six pack of against the spread bets

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Speaker 1: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. Happy Thanksgiving, and congrats on

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Speaker 1: winning a Titans bet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, washed out last week one and two on the

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Speaker 2: sixth pack though, I just can't get back to back weeks.

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Speaker 2: And then I've bet on Tommy Devido, which was a mistake.

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Speaker 1: I tried to worry about that one night. It's a

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Speaker 1: serious football team.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Thankful for everyone being with us

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Speaker 2: for another year. I wanted to make sure we get

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Speaker 2: to you got this out by Wednesday for everyone traveling

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Speaker 2: and with plans for the holiday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're gonna go through the three Thanksgiving games

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Speaker 1: quickly and then we will jump into our Holiday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Before we dive in, here's a quick message from our

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Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 4: This is our sixth annual Holiday six Pack episode with

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybond and Stucky. I am an enormous fan of Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 4: It is my favorite holiday holiday of great tradition, friends, family,

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Speaker 4: and of course a tremendous amount of gambling. So from

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Speaker 4: the bottom of my heart, I thank you very much

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Speaker 4: for making this show a small part of your holiday

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Speaker 4: week and on behalf of the entire Action Network team,

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Speaker 4: we wish you and your families are very safe, a

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Speaker 4: very joyful, and an endlessly prosperous Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks again

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Speaker 4: for listening and good luck.

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Speaker 1: Chicago at Detroit is the first one up, and the

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Speaker 1: Lions are ten and a half point favorites ten or

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Speaker 1: ten and a half depends on where you look. The

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Speaker 1: total forty eight and a half. That's that twelve thirty

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Speaker 1: Eastern on CBS, seventy six percent of the bet, seventy

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Speaker 1: four percent of the handle on the Detroit Lions, who

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Speaker 1: are sitting at nine and two against the spread. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna have more on this in the six packs, so stuck.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you have any quick thoughts you

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Speaker 1: want to add now or just wait till the six pack. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I like the Bears, which means it's a loser because

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers just I mean, the Lions just

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Speaker 2: cover every single game somehow. I just think this line's

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Speaker 2: a bit too high. And the one thing I'm worried

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Speaker 2: about there here? Do you think that there's anything too

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Speaker 2: I think it's probably a lot of noise. But Thanksgiving

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Speaker 2: Day favorites are fifty four and thirty against the spread yet,

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Speaker 2: which gives me a bit of I think double digit

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Speaker 2: favorites are ten and zero against the spread on Thanksgiving Day.

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Speaker 2: You know, it's not the biggest sample size, but I

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Speaker 2: do think that this line is a bit too high

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Speaker 2: for a divisional game. The Bears have played better since

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Speaker 2: making the change at offensive coordinator. Kayla Williams looked pretty

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Speaker 2: good last week. I think that he can have some

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Speaker 2: success here with his legs against Detroit and their man coverage.

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Speaker 2: And the truit's not healthy. They have a number of injuries.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't look like Davis will go it doesn't look

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Speaker 2: like Decker will go. Montgomery's banged up. You know, they've

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Speaker 2: had some other injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Their defense can is still com but I mean they

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Speaker 2: were turn over merchants last year. They do really miss

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Speaker 2: Billings on the defensive line, and I think Brisker on

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Speaker 2: the back end. But I think they can do some

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Speaker 2: things schematically and do things that can give golf some trouble.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where the peak of the market is

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Speaker 2: on the Lions, but I mean they're nine and two

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Speaker 2: against the spread that you rarely see stuff like this

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, but I show value in the Bear.

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Speaker 2: So we'll touch on this a little bit later.

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Speaker 3: We're on the bus getting ready to broadcast the traditional

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Speaker 3: Thanksgiving Day game between the Lions and the Bears this year,

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Speaker 3: and John, as you think about all the people around

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Speaker 3: the country sitting down to enjoy Thanksgiving with their friends

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Speaker 3: and their families, we indeed have a lot to be

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Speaker 3: thankful for.

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Speaker 5: The first Thanksgiving Day game ever played was here in

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Speaker 5: Detroit to Chicago Bears at Detroit, and to me, there's

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Speaker 5: nothing better. There's just certain things that go together, you know,

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Speaker 5: the turkey, the family, the tradition football, and we have

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Speaker 5: it all today, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Giants at the Cowboys. Cowboys favored by four three

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Speaker 1: and a half at some spots to total thirty seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. This is at four thirty Eastern on Fox.

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Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent of the bets eighty seven percent of

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Speaker 1: the handle that we've tracked in the Action Network apps

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Speaker 1: public betting data on the Dallas Cowboys. And I know

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Speaker 1: there's gonna be some people that are gonna come on

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Speaker 1: the Giants say, hey, they just got blown out. Dallas

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Speaker 1: is starting Cooper Rush, they got injuries. I just don't

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Speaker 1: think the Giants are a serious football team. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they are enjoying playing football right now for their

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Speaker 1: coaching staff, and I don't think they're they're putting their

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Speaker 1: best foot forward to win games. Like starting Tomy Devido

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Speaker 1: in the first place is ridiculous. Now they're trying to

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Speaker 1: like back off and say he's got four arm shoulder

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Speaker 1: sort of a forearm soreness. Yeah, four arms horness. So

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on. But a big thing

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Speaker 1: I noticed Stuck was that Jermaine a luminor tackle for

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Speaker 1: the Giants, He's iffy to go and they already lost

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Speaker 1: Andrew Thomas, so.

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Speaker 2: Luminar went out third play of the game, and then

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Speaker 2: it was it was a disaster.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and so that like, I don't think people realize

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Speaker 1: how much of a disaster that is. You know, usually

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Speaker 1: we're not talking about anyone but quarterbacks, you know, meaningful

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Speaker 1: to the spread, maybe a few skilled players, But for

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Speaker 1: the Giants, especially with a guy like de Vito, who's

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Speaker 1: pressure to sack rate is just ridiculous, this is significant.

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Speaker 1: You know, it was already significant with just Thomas going down.

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Speaker 1: So I would I would, I would take Dallas at

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Speaker 1: almost any number inside of six. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: the Giants are competitive here. But what say you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Evan Niel's limited too.

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Speaker 1: He is terrible. He's terrible. I know.

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Speaker 2: It's still like then you're down to like, who are

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Speaker 2: you down to.

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Speaker 1: The Tommy DeVito of tackles. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, and Tommy pressure to sack ray show. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean I thought the sample size wasn't huge like

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Speaker 2: we saw with Malik Willis. Maybe he could be improved.

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Speaker 2: I thought maybe Dable had seen something, but no, that's

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Speaker 2: not right. I could maybe be talking to the Giants

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Speaker 2: if Drew Locke starts. But I mean it's not the

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Speaker 2: best spot for Dallas that they played Monday night and

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Speaker 2: then they went on the road, pulled off a big

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Speaker 2: upset as a double digit dog. Now you're coming back

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Speaker 2: on a short week and your favorite at home better

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Speaker 2: than terrible.

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Speaker 1: There's just though, like Dallas has had a lot of

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Speaker 1: struggles this year. Believe me, I know I've lost, I've

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Speaker 1: taken some l's on Dallas. But this Dallas team, like

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Speaker 1: this Giants team is like they they have some pieces

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Speaker 1: on the defense, but like, oh Jala, you just went on.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 1: I Like, it's just it's too few and far between.

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Speaker 1: And this offense is a joke. I mean, yeah, they

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Speaker 1: played Jalen Hyatt half the game. They took out Slayton.

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Speaker 1: They're literally tanky, like it's obvious to be. It's so ridiculous,

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Speaker 1: Like I don't know what the hell they were bench Tracy.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's like he's a young guy. He fumbled,

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Speaker 1: so what like bench him? They are tanking.

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Speaker 2: From a player prop perspective, I would think the one

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Speaker 2: thing that the Giants do want to do is throw

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Speaker 2: the ball to neighbors a bunch. This is like your

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Speaker 2: future at receiver. He's upset. Clearly the locker room vibes

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Speaker 2: aren't good. But if it's de Vito can even get

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Speaker 2: on the balls, he's just gonna get sacked every time,

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Speaker 2: Like you got to make him happy. This week on

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Speaker 2: National TV, it's the past.

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Speaker 1: If people trying to talking to the giants, just go

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Speaker 1: watch them Timmy DeVito tape like just trust me and

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Speaker 1: tire crew.

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Speaker 6: I Happy Thanksgiving from Michigan everyone. On this day when

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Speaker 6: all of our through the ladies and gentlemen who will

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Speaker 6: send you this game, are away from their families, we

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Speaker 6: hope that you're enjoying.

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Speaker 3: Those that you love on this very special day.

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Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving, Brolant. It's nice to get together with the families.

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Speaker 6: But in the time when it seems fashionable to be

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Speaker 6: critical of those things we don't have and to be

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Speaker 6: angry at everything, it might be nice to step back

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Speaker 6: and look at the things that we do have, the

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Speaker 6: good things we share in life, and to be thankful

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Speaker 6: for just a moment for the actually said all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Miami at Green Bay, it's an interesting one interconference showdown.

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Speaker 1: I think we had it's exact slate on like a

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Speaker 1: different holiday, like a Christmas or something or is it

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Speaker 1: definitely had a Miami Green Bay game a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago. I think it was Christmas. So this is

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Speaker 1: a rematch of that and the pack favored by three

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Speaker 1: and a half in Lambeau, the total forty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. Now, this is a night game, primetime eight

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Speaker 1: twenty Eastern on NBC. And the reason I've bringing that

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Speaker 1: up is because it's gonna be probably below freezing. That's

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Speaker 1: what the forecast looks like right now, and we know

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Speaker 1: that the Dolphins and Tua tend to struggle in that,

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Speaker 1: so that'll be a narrative. But Stuck, I know you

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Speaker 1: have some more on this, so I guess we'll just

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Speaker 1: get right to the six pack, right yep? All right,

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Speaker 1: So it's time for our NFL Week thirteen Holidays six pack.

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Speaker 2: Who Thursday for actions, Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack and just recap Week twelve, three and three. But

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Speaker 1: of course stuck one at Titans bet so it's big

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Speaker 1: and so we won. We won will Levis, Cooper, Rush,

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young, those are right, those are not three winners.

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Speaker 1: It's that time of year. It's that time of year

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Speaker 1: you are up First, where are you going for.

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Speaker 2: My first pick of the week thirteen Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus six at home

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Speaker 2: against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yeah, we're going back to

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Speaker 2: Bryce Young. I mean Bryce Young last week looked fantastic.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, is dealing and I.

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Speaker 2: Don't say lately. By the way, Bryce Young is one

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Speaker 2: of only three quarterbacks to put up twenty five or

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Speaker 2: more against the Chiefs this year, and Allen or the

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Speaker 2: other two. But yeah, I mean really, since he came

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Speaker 2: back from being benched, he's been a different quarterback and schematically,

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Speaker 2: Canalys is doing some of the things that I expected

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Speaker 2: them to do early in the year, and like just

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Speaker 2: the entire offense is coming together. The offensive line is healthy,

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Speaker 2: so he's generally getting pressure, he's generally getting time to throw.

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Speaker 2: If you just look at expected completion percentage over expectation,

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Speaker 2: last year, he was close to dead last before getting benched.

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Speaker 2: This year, he was dead last, and then since coming back,

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Speaker 2: he's around twenty two out of thirty six qualified quarterbacks,

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Speaker 2: and I think he's trending up. I was really impressed

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Speaker 2: with what he did against the Blitz and throwing downfield.

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Speaker 2: I mean he was eleven or fourteen for one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty three yards against the Blitz at the Spagnola Blitz,

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Speaker 2: who's nine to sixteen fo one hundred and sixty five

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Speaker 2: yards on throws ten plus yards downfield.

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Speaker 1: And some drops. There's some drops, yeah, and there were

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Speaker 1: some almost everything was all at target.

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Speaker 2: Major major drops in that game. So yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: that this offense is trending up. Canalis knows this Bucks

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Speaker 2: personnel very well, and I'm sure this is the game

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Speaker 2: that he's had circled and he knows where to attack

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Speaker 2: this defense. And I think the fact that Bryce Young

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Speaker 2: looked so competent against the Chiefs Blitz will help going

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Speaker 2: up against Todd Bowles, but I think the Canal's familiarity

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Speaker 2: will help him. By the way, Canal he knows Baker

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Speaker 2: Mayfield really well as well, and we're starting to see

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Speaker 2: Bryce Young come along the same way that we saw

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Speaker 2: some of those improvements with Baker Mayfield. The Panther's defense

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Speaker 2: is not good, but they're in a much better shade

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Speaker 2: than they've been all season by a wide margin, because

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Speaker 2: they're just healthier across the board. Dj Wanham I think

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Speaker 2: makes a big difference getting him back off the edge.

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Speaker 2: They were able to get pressure.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I was surprised. I was actually highly surprised. A

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Speaker 1: few times. I like money downs they would get off

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Speaker 1: the field against Mahomes, which is just you don't really

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Speaker 1: see that very often for many teams. So like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I was kind of baffled almost because.

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Speaker 2: Happened five times.

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Speaker 1: I think, yeah, four or five, I believe, let's see,

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Speaker 1: I got it five yep, five sacks and that was

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Speaker 1: that was part of my handicap, was like, hey, you know,

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Speaker 1: Mahomes kind of turns it over from clean pockets, so

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Speaker 1: they're not going to get pressure, and then they actually

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Speaker 1: got pressures. So yeah, it's trending up into.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. So there's a lot of things I like here.

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Speaker 2: And the price. I mean, if you think about it,

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Speaker 2: the Bucks will play their second straight road game. They

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Speaker 2: were this in this price range against Tommy DeVito, and

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Speaker 2: so of course I'm playing the Panthers. The Panthers have

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Speaker 2: a way better offensive line, exponentially better, and there in

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Speaker 2: their defense equally as bad, and Bryce Young is much

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Speaker 2: better than Tommy DeVito. So yeah, give me the Panthers

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Speaker 2: catching six.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like this too. Uh, I will say, like,

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Speaker 1: if anything worries me, it's probably just the Bucks. The

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Speaker 1: Bucks offense, like bass Mayfield has been really good this year,

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Speaker 1: like some of the plays he's making, like he's gotten

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Speaker 1: so much better at scrambling and and just making plays

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Speaker 1: on the move and and like, I hope this Bucks

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Speaker 1: offense is not like like he can put up fifty

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Speaker 1: in this matchup. That's the only thing that scares me.

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Speaker 1: But I agree, I think the Panthers are way undervalued

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Speaker 1: in the market because everyone kind of thinks Bryce Young

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Speaker 1: is the same old Bryce Young, and he's he is.

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Speaker 1: Like the way a Panthers fran to explain it to

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Speaker 1: me is like, you know, former Bama fan watching m

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Speaker 1: Atbama two is like, he's not He's not gonna do

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Speaker 1: like a lot of splash praise, but he's gonna string

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Speaker 1: together just a bunch of good throws after good throws. Almost.

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Speaker 1: I could see his career kind of going like like

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Speaker 1: a Jared Goff almost where you remember how goth which

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Speaker 1: is terrible that first year and then he kind of

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden you look up and he's done

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Speaker 1: the Lions and he's having He's like, oh, he went

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Speaker 1: fourteen of fourteen and eighteen of eighteen, and yeah, I

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Speaker 1: could see Bryce Young kind of get doing that, get

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Speaker 1: a team behind him. But yeah, I like the Panthers

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Speaker 1: as well. For my first pick and the second overall

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Speaker 1: of the week thirteen holiday six pack, I am going

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Speaker 1: with the Tennessee Titans plus five and a half at

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Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders. And I been talking about this for

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Speaker 1: weeks now, but this Commander's team is just not as

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Speaker 1: good as was perceived based on how they started the year.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of yep, yep. That's one. So there's

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Speaker 1: and and I'll just say this about the Cliffing I

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Speaker 1: think I mentioned it last week, but they're they're his

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Speaker 1: offenses tend to trend down around mid season, and there's

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Speaker 1: something to that because he's not one of those coordinators

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Speaker 1: that moves guys around and is you know, trying to

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Speaker 1: do a bunch of stuff with with schemes and movement

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Speaker 1: like that. He's he's more of, Okay, let's get let's

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Speaker 1: master the you know, the offense, and master the positions

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Speaker 1: you line up in. And so we get to this

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Speaker 1: point in the season and you have so we have

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Speaker 1: you know, eight nine, ten games of film out there

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Speaker 1: and he starts because I mean, if you watch that

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Speaker 1: Dallas game, maybe some people were surprised. I wasn't, because

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Speaker 1: I thought the Dallas defense was going to have to

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Speaker 1: show up there. Every time the Commanders at the ball.

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Speaker 1: It was like Bryce Young, not Bryce Jameing Daniels scrambles

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Speaker 1: out of bounds for like a one or two yard game,

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Speaker 1: or like they're just getting nothing in the past game

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Speaker 1: like Dallas was just all over and that also helps them.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you kind of know what Washington's doing

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Speaker 1: in the past game, then you can kind of crowd

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Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage and you know, focus on a

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Speaker 1: run game.

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Speaker 2: And in his spot, you don't have any running backs.

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Speaker 1: Eckler almost certainly not playing concussion went to the hospital.

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Speaker 1: Hope he's okay. Brian Robinson, it's been gimo nagging injuries

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Speaker 1: all year, got hurt, left, came back, didn't do much,

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Speaker 1: could be out this week. They they were looking at

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Speaker 1: practice squad running backs. So that's big because you have

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Speaker 1: Jeffrey Simmons and Devandre Sweat in the middle for that

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Speaker 1: Titans defense. So it's gonna be tough to run up

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Speaker 1: the middle. You're gonna probably need some you know, Daniels

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Speaker 1: on the edge and things like that, but that's easier

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Speaker 1: to sniff out this time of year. And we've we

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Speaker 1: saw the Cowboys and really the last three or four

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Speaker 1: opponent for Washington's have kind of been sniffing out you know,

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Speaker 1: Jayden Daniels and in the run game. And you know,

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Speaker 1: so I think this Tennessee defense, which is I think underrated.

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Speaker 1: You know, I know they got some guys on on

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Speaker 1: IR but fifth and early down success rate, fifth in

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Speaker 1: early down pass success rate, eighth, excuse me, eighth against

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Speaker 1: the pass, fifth against the run, fourth and yards per

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Speaker 1: drive allowed. This is a this is a pretty good defense.

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Speaker 1: And I think that you look at you know what

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Speaker 1: Washington has, really it's Terry mcflorman, and Terry m florin's

336
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Speaker 1: kind of struggling lately. If he wasn't for that long

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Speaker 1: catch at the end, four catches for twenty yards, So

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Speaker 1: he's been you know, he's been quiet for long stretches,

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Speaker 1: and you know, it wasn't just I thought it was

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Speaker 1: just gonna be an Eagles game because they have great corners.

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Speaker 1: But he's been kind of quiet for long stretches at times.

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Speaker 1: You got two offensive lineman banged up for Washington, Wiley,

343
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Speaker 1: and your center, your kicker just went on ir Cyber

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Speaker 1: and right, yeah, right, and then on the other side

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Speaker 1: of the ball, because we know that this is where

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Speaker 1: the Titans could throw the game away. Listen to the

347
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Speaker 1: defenses Will Levis has faced this year pass defense DVO

348
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Speaker 1: Minnesota number two, Houston number four, Chargers number seven, Chicago

349
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Speaker 1: number ten, Green Bay number eleven. He faced five of

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Speaker 1: the top eleven pass defenses in the last three weeks Minnesota, Houston,

351
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Speaker 1: and Chargers. That's three of the top seven. And he

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Speaker 1: against those three fifty yeah, fifty three or seventy eight,

353
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Speaker 1: seven forty eight, So you know, almost almost ten yards

354
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Speaker 1: in a tep five touchdowns, two picks, a lot of sacks. Now,

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Speaker 1: this is why I like the Titans in this spot. Well,

356
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Speaker 1: first of all, Washington's twenty fifth, they're one of the

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Speaker 1: worst defense. This is a this is the worst defense.

358
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Speaker 1: He's the worst defense he had faced before this the

359
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Speaker 1: Jets and their twentieth and we know their talent is

360
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Speaker 1: a lot better than twentieth. Then they get pressure at

361
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Speaker 1: at a high rate, so this is easily the worst defense.

362
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Speaker 1: Will love us his face. But if you look at

363
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Speaker 1: Washington's pressure rate, this is where I think, if you're

364
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Speaker 1: a Washington thing, you got to be concerned. So last

365
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Speaker 1: week Dallas said no Zach Martin, no Tyers Smith, part

366
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Speaker 1: of their arguably be the two best lineman out. Washington

367
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Speaker 1: gets an eleven point eight percent pressure rate in Washington

368
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Speaker 1: against against Cooper Rush, nothing no pressure. So I started

369
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Speaker 1: looking back, Okay, is Washington getting pressure at all against Philadelphia?

370
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Speaker 1: Thirty two percent. That's actually one of the lowest pressure

371
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Speaker 1: rates of the season against Phildelphia. Know, Jalon Hurts is

372
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Speaker 1: getting pssure forty four percent at a time like he's

373
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Speaker 1: they're getting. He's getting pressured to a ton. Washington couldn't pressure him.

374
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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones with no Andrew Thomas after Philadelphia sacked him

375
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Speaker 1: like thirty six times, Washington plays Daniel Jones, no Andrew

376
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Speaker 1: Thomas twenty four percent pressure that is that's that's poverty

377
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Speaker 1: right there. So Washington's getting no pressure. We know that's

378
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Speaker 1: what tends to screw up Levis. So this is gonna

379
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Speaker 1: be by far the easiest defensive matchup uh that he

380
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Speaker 1: has faced. So if he's playing well against the number

381
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Speaker 1: two defensive Minnesota the number four Houston at number seven

382
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,199
Speaker 1: charger and back to back to back weeks. Yeah, he

383
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Speaker 1: might do some work here. It's tightan This Titan offense

384
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 1: might like the bestest looked all year in this matchup.

385
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Speaker 1: And they should be able to run the ball in

386
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Speaker 1: this matchup as well. And when they're able to run

387
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Speaker 1: the ball, that's when that's that's really when they've had

388
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Speaker 1: their wins or their you know, close losses. So I

389
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Speaker 1: love Tennessee in this spot. Will you'll be surprised if

390
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Speaker 1: they pull out the pull off the outright upset here.

391
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like this matchup as well, and the cliff

392
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Speaker 2: fade is on it just it's just it feels a

393
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Speaker 2: little dirty, hmm in that you had Washington down as

394
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Speaker 2: a double did your favorite and then Tennessee win, yeah,

395
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Speaker 2: as an under of seven plus and then backing them

396
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 2: just from like a bilo cell high.

397
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Speaker 1: Yeah, but the market just doesn't respect Tennessee as it is,

398
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Speaker 1: and it's overrating Washington to the point where Washington is

399
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 1: just Tennessee without turnovers, Like it's like they're not town wise.

400
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:19,200
Speaker 1: It's not that and they were good.

401
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 2: Washington was getting so lucky early on with like you know,

402
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: their third down conversions, their fourth down conversions who they played,

403
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 2: so yeah, and Tennessee was like one of the unluckiest

404
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: teams in the NFL, like they were, so they still

405
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 2: have some some luck coming their way. So yeah, I

406
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: don't mind this at all. I'll probably be joining you. Look,

407
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 2: I've won one bet on the Titans. Now I'm gonna

408
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 2: be sucked back in for my second pick and the

409
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Speaker 2: third overall of the week thirteen holiday six pack. I'm

410
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: going with the Atlanta Falcons plus two and a half

411
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, just like that

412
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 2: last bet that you talked about. I'm waiting on this.

413
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 2: Maybe we got three. I doubt it, but wouldn't matter

414
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 2: for the contest, but I'm holding out hope to see

415
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,160
Speaker 2: if we do get it. I had this spot circled

416
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: since the summer. This is a brutal scheduling, situational spot

417
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: for the Chargers, who come off a short week, hyped

418
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 2: up game in the horrible They have the Chiefs on

419
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 2: deck and the Falcons are coming off of the bye,

420
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 2: and the Chargers are traveling across country to Atlanta and

421
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 2: they're dealing with injuries. I think the key one here

422
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 2: is Dobbins. I don't think he's gonna play, and he's

423
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 2: the guy with long unfortunate injury list, and the running

424
00:23:53,880 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: game without Dobbins just doesn't have juice, and that big

425
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 2: for Atlanta. Atlanta doesn't get any pressure off the edge.

426
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 2: They can get a little bit up the middle. Hopefully

427
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 2: that's what they do here, but they get like none

428
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: off the edge. But the Charters tackles already kind of

429
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: take that away. And these the Charters weapons are still

430
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 2: pretty underwhelming. I mean, how many this isn't I mean,

431
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: imagine if this Herbert had one other reliable weapon on

432
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: the outside. But the Falcons should be healthier in the secondary.

433
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 2: I think that they'll get Alfred and Hughes back. There's

434
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 2: a team that was down basically their entire secondary against

435
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: Denver and they're unable to get pressure. That's just, you know,

436
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: a recipe for disaster. And on the other side of

437
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: the ball, I think the Falcons now they should get

438
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: Drew Domend back at center. Healthy offensive line. They're gonna

439
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: the Chargers don't really get pressure, and yeah, Cousins is

440
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 2: going to be able to operate from a clean pocket.

441
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 2: His split differential is drastic between when he's kept clean

442
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 2: and when he's under pressure. He will be kept clean here.

443
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: The Chargers have the corner injuries. I'm not sure if

444
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: Denzel Harriman is going to go, but they don't really

445
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 2: have like a second viable linebacker, so that hurts. And

446
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 2: this is a defense that if you look at their metrics,

447
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 2: you say, oh yeah, this this defense is really good.

448
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 2: It's well schemed. But I'm not sold on their defense,

449
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 2: and I'm not even I'm not sold on the run defense.

450
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 2: If you look like their run defensive metrics look pretty good.

451
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: Who have they faced that can run the ball? I mean,

452
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 2: remember they started off the year with Las Vegas and Carolina.

453
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 2: You know that. You know they face the Saints, the Browns,

454
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,479
Speaker 2: the Titans, the Bengals, the Ravens last two weeks and

455
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 2: what happened when they stepped up in class, You know,

456
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,719
Speaker 2: the Bengals and Ravens kind of showed who this defense is.

457
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 2: So I think that the Falcons will be able to

458
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: run the ball here, and I think that Kirk Cousins

459
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 2: will be able to cook. I think it's a great

460
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 2: by low spot in Atlanti had two losses prior to

461
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: the buy, should be healthier coming out of the buy.

462
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: And it's just a great situational spot. So I think

463
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: the Chargers are still a bit overvalued, and now that

464
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 2: this line is going out to two and a half,

465
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 2: I like the Falcons at home.

466
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Chargers defense, it's it's kind of tricky. I

467
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 1: gets that was kind of my handicap again when they

468
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,679
Speaker 1: played the Bengals as well. It's they really haven't played anyone.

469
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: It's hard to gauge, but they they're so weird and

470
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,479
Speaker 1: that yeah, they play. They play very sound defense, and

471
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 1: it looks kind of a sound overall football team. But

472
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 1: it's not like it's not a scary team. Like they're good,

473
00:26:56,400 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: but they're not scary. And uh yeah on the road

474
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 1: against the solid Falcons team, you know, the only I mean,

475
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: if the only thing is if you know Herbert, Herbert

476
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: could single handedly go nuclear if they if they're not

477
00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: getting pressure, but his guy's got to help him out,

478
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 1: somebody besides Maconkie. But yeah, I think, I like, I

479
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 1: think I could roll with with Atlanta here. I see

480
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 1: the Chargers tough spot coming off that Monday night physical

481
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 1: game against the Ravens, and now you lose your your

482
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 1: chain mover in Dobbins, which this offense is not great. Yeah,

483
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: it's not great because like the way they're playing offense,

484
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 1: they're not asking Herbert to kind of put everyone on

485
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 1: his back, and that's that's worked out. But now without Dobbins,

486
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: it kind of changes the calculus a little because Gus

487
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 1: Everts has nothing left. Hassan Haskins probably wouldn't be oh

488
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 1: if it was if they knew he had to be

489
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 1: the number two and Vidal I saw him in preseason.

490
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,239
Speaker 1: He didn't look too great. Uh so yeah, and now

491
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 1: Quinton Johnson's going back to Quinton Johnston. I mean, how

492
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: is Will Disley your second essentially your number two receiver?

493
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 1: Like that? I did not think that dude would be

494
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 1: relevant again. So yeah, Chargers a little probably not one

495
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 1: of those teams started started hot.

496
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 2: It's the worst schedule in the NFL.

497
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's a little bit of a come down

498
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: for this Chargers team. I see it for my second pick,

499
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: the fourth overall of the week thirteen Highdays six pack,

500
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: going with the Chicago Bears plus ten and a half

501
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: at the Detroit Lions. Hungry Bears are violent Bears, and

502
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 1: we started to talk about this earlier. Wanted to hold

503
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: off on the GoF stuff. But so as you start

504
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: to allude to face them twice last year Week eleven,

505
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: Detroit was an eight point favorite at home. They only

506
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: won by five thirty one twenty six GoF twenty three

507
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: or thirty five six point seven yards in attempt, two touchdowns,

508
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: three picks, and a couple of sacks. He's a little

509
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: just off.

510
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 2: I had the Bears in that game, by the way,

511
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 2: they were Remembers were up twelve with like five to

512
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 2: go in that game.

513
00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: Justin Fields was dancing on the sidelines. That was that game.

514
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: I'll never forget that. Yeah. I was like, really, bro,

515
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 1: like you never win and you're gonna act like you've

516
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: been there before, bro, And they didn't. But yeah, so

517
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 1: it was, you know, one of those games, one of

518
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: those defenses where Jared got just didn't look right. It's

519
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: every once in a while you see see those kind

520
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: of matchups. And the good thing about this is it

521
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: repeated itself, so it wasn't like, oh, this is a

522
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: one one time thing. Week fourteen, three weeks later, so

523
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: perfect times for you know, the lines team to you know,

524
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 1: fix what they get wrong and get back to it.

525
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 1: This time they're a three point favorite on the road.

526
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: They lose twenty eight to thirteen. Golf goes twenty of

527
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 1: thirty five for one hundred and sixty one yards, just

528
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: four point six yards per attempt, one touchdown, two picks,

529
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: so second time, more picks than touchdowns. Gets ACKed four

530
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 1: times in this one. So overall forty three of seventy

531
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: for three ninety seven just a five point six seven YPA,

532
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, five picks, six sacks, sixty one passer rating

533
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: in these two games. And this Chicago defense is probably

534
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: better now, you know, than it was last season. And

535
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: that's why I like this team with a big number

536
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: against Detroit because defensively, you got talent. You know, this

537
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 1: is a top ten defense by DVOA. You got talent

538
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: all on all parts of this defense. And then you

539
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: flip it over and Chicago's offense trending up as well

540
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 1: because they have talent as well. All five offensive linemen

541
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: great out at PFF in the sixty two second percentile

542
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: or better. All five left to right, you got Teenan

543
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: Allen finally showed some life because they're putting they're utilizing

544
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: him right they're putting them in matchups he can win

545
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: instead of just running them on these like you know,

546
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: routes where he needs speed, which he doesn't have at

547
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: this stage in his career on certain routes. So they're

548
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: utilizing their personnel better. They stopped using Gerald Evert, they

549
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: stopped using Marcedes Lewis, uh so comets, getting you know,

550
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 1: all the snaps of tight end uh DJ Moore, using

551
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: him closer to the line of scrimmage. So he's a

552
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: much bigger threat that way because he can run after

553
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: the catch instead of having to win against you know,

554
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 1: press coverage and things which he's not good at. So

555
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: Chicago made a lot of good adjustments under Thomas Brown,

556
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: and you see it in Caleb Williams numbers. And also

557
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 1: he's running more, which they're doing design runs, they're doing more,

558
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: he's scrambling more, which is going to help against the defense,

559
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 1: a man coverage defense like Detroit.

560
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 2: But if you look back to those Kields games, feels

561
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: probably I think he went nuts running the ball against Detroit.

562
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: And Caleb against a very good member Detroit number one

563
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: pass defense, Minnesota number two. So against Minnesota last week,

564
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: Caleb thirty to or forty seven sixty eight percent, three

565
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: hundred and forty yards seven point two in attempt it's

566
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 1: above we average, two touchdowns, no turnovers uh, and a

567
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: one hundred one oh three passers reading. So he is

568
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: definitely trending up in this offense. That's just a lot

569
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: smarter guys are in the right positions. There's a lot

570
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: of talent because you got a line, you got a quarterback,

571
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: number one pick, you got three very good receivers. There's

572
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: no real weaknesses on the offense outside of the coaching staff.

573
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 1: So if the coaching staff can just if it's competent,

574
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: this is a very undervalue team that can give Detroit

575
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: a run for its money. And by the way, you

576
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: talk about Detroit always covers nine and two, they lost,

577
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: they lost against the spread both times of Chicago last

578
00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: So still, if there was one thing Eberflus can do,

579
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 1: it's cover against the Lions. For some reason, it's like

580
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: some bizarre bizarro thing, but this Bears team just gives

581
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: this Lion team trouble in short week that I think

582
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 1: that works in the Bears benefit because you know the Lions,

583
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 1: they just went on the road to Indianapolis and now, yeah,

584
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: they're back at home. But it's a short week, so

585
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 1: you know, some of those things that you might have

586
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: to get it ironed out. This is probably a week

587
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: you would want the full week of prep, given how

588
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: Goff struggled against this defense, and given the fact that

589
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 1: corner two, yeah, and you have Calton Davis is their

590
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: only corner ranked above eightieth at PFF. So everyone else

591
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: is like meek robertson Kyndallville door. We might get some

592
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 1: kinda villdor. It might move.

593
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: You might be moving Robertson outside, and then yeah, Mosley

594
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: who's washed into into the slot. I think it's a

595
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 2: good point and that the only thing I'm worried about

596
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 2: is what I'm thinking to myself, because I bet the

597
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 2: Bears too, is do the Bears show up? Like, just

598
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 2: are they so deflated because they lose in overtime the

599
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,960
Speaker 2: week after to a division rival, the week after losing

600
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: on a black blocked fuel goal to a division rival.

601
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: But it's Thanksgiving, it's the Lions. It's another division game,

602
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 2: and I think they'll show up. And I think that

603
00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: the Lions staff overall is so much better that and

604
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: then they come up with these like especially Ben Johnson

605
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 2: and I think that the short week hurts them in

606
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 2: this case.

607
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 1: And you only got two weeks of the of you know,

608
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,879
Speaker 1: seeing Thomas Brown at the helm of the offense too,

609
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: so you would ideally like a little more time to

610
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:17,919
Speaker 1: kind of you know what I mean, because you don't

611
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: have as you're limited as far as what you can

612
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 1: see on tape. So yeah, I think the short week

613
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 1: definitely usually benefits favorites and you know, superior team short week,

614
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: but in this case, because of all the change going

615
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: on with Chicago, I agree. I think I think it

616
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: does benefit Chicago. Again.

617
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 3: I have a Thanksgiving we got it to decking right, Yeah, this.

618
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 5: Thing here is a D bone duck stuffed in a

619
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 5: D bone chicken stuffed in a D bone turkey. We're

620
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 5: stuffing now, you're talking all right.

621
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 2: For my third and final pick in fifth overall of

622
00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 2: the Holiday Sunday six pack, I'm going to Miami Dolphins

623
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 2: plus three and a half at the Green Bay Packers.

624
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 2: I am a bit concern about the right two in

625
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: the cold, he's not been good. The Dolphins are a

626
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: warm weather team, but I think that they're more built

627
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:15,919
Speaker 2: this year to play in conditions like this, And there's

628
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 2: going to be wind maybe what ten it's like maybe

629
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: fifteen mile a hour sustained winds up to twenty twenty

630
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: five mile hour GUS. That could change, but I think

631
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: that that hurts the Packers more than the Dolphins. The

632
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:37,760
Speaker 2: Dolphins aren't an explosive down the field passing attack anymore,

633
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 2: I mean relative to what they've been. And that's what

634
00:35:40,760 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: Green Bay has lived on with Jordan Love. I mean,

635
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 2: if you look at Jordan Love, I mean he's he's

636
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: just not playing very well right now. They are completely

637
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 2: reliant on him just creating explosive plays, but he's also

638
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 2: just making some head scratching throws he can turn over.

639
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,320
Speaker 1: I did that interception in eight of his nine games.

640
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 2: Play this turnover worthy play rate, I mean think he

641
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 2: has thirteen or fourteen turnover where he plays already. I

642
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 2: think that was like seventeen last year. His turned his

643
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 2: big time throw to turnover worthy play rate ratio is

644
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 2: like eighteen to thirteen. Last year was like thirty eight

645
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: to seventeen. His interception, his turnover worthy play rate has

646
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: jumped up to about four percent. So the offense is

647
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 2: just not in sync right now. That Dolphins do a

648
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: good job against the run because Jacobs is playing really well.

649
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 2: I mean, he seems to just never go down on

650
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: first contact, and they generally do a good job of

651
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 2: taking away the explosive pass play, which I think is

652
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: going to be more difficult here with potential wind. And

653
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball, I think that

654
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 2: the Dolphins can have success running the ball, specifically outside

655
00:36:55,440 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 2: the tackles. And what does Green Bay really strung with.

656
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 2: They struggle defending backs out of the backfield and tight ends.

657
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 2: John Smith can have a huge day, and they also

658
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: really struggle in between in the middle of the field,

659
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 2: which Miami can really take advantage of. And I don't

660
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 2: think jay R Alexander's gonna play.

661
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: Is he He's like, he's like a Dory Jackson a

662
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,720
Speaker 1: few years like, is he his Giants? He exist?

663
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: Yeah? Does he exist? So if you look at this

664
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 2: Packers defense, which has been extremely reliant on turnovers this year,

665
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: their corner group without Alexander is extremely underwhelming. So Halfley

666
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: can't play the aggressive style defenses that he really wants to.

667
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 2: But I think Miami can have success running the ball.

668
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 2: They can have success thrown to their backs, success thrown

669
00:37:47,520 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 2: to John who and then that's going to set up

670
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 2: just some downfield open not not over the middle of

671
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 2: the field, crossers for Waddle and Hill. The Miami offense

672
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 2: is rolling right now. The Packers, I mean, they're in

673
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 2: desperation mode. They need every win. I think Packers have

674
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 2: been a bit fortunate this year. Just overall. This defense

675
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: has issues. The offense has issues right now. You know,

676
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 2: they have the Lions on deck. They just beat the

677
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, a game they really wanted. Wouldn't be

678
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 2: surprised that they're just a little flat here. But if

679
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 2: you look at what the pack like, the Packers should

680
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 2: have lost to the Bears. They block a field goal,

681
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 2: they get the forty nine ers practice squad. You know,

682
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 2: they beat the Jags by three. They beat the Texans

683
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 2: by two at home. That looks worse and worse by

684
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: the day. We'll talk about Texans later. They should they

685
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: got out played by the Rams. Should have lost that game.

686
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 2: You know, they lost at home to the Vikings, they

687
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: lost at home to the Lions. It's like the their

688
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 2: overall body of work is really not that impressive for

689
00:38:59,280 --> 00:39:05,240
Speaker 2: a team that is currently sitting at eight and three

690
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:09,840
Speaker 2: on the year. I think the Dolphins are trending up. Yeah,

691
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 2: and uh yeah, give me the hook there now, feeling

692
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 2: that I still can't crack it. But do you make

693
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 2: anything of the favorites on Thanksgiving?

694
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 1: No? I so for like, I think what I see

695
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 1: with trends with favorites, a lot of that is generally

696
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 1: more like market driven and whatnot, because I usually like

697
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: the books can adjust to that. Like with underdog trends.

698
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 1: The reason I think they're so profitable is because people

699
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: don't bet underdogs much, so you know, you know, you

700
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 1: don't really adjust. But I almost like I've seen that

701
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,360
Speaker 1: in a excuse spots where like certain days like opening

702
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: day or holidays or primetime, a certain spots like favorites

703
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: do well. And I always just wondered if books are

704
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: just kind of like purposely floating like softer lines or something.

705
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: But I don't. I mean, when I hear that stat,

706
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: I just think it's gonna regress, like because there's no

707
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: real rhyme or reason behind it. You could say, I mean,

708
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: I think there is a little bit too superior team

709
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 1: on a short week, you know, Thursday night football. I

710
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 1: think favorites do well as well, So maybe that's it too,

711
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 1: but not to the point where it's like, oh, man,

712
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:20,760
Speaker 1: like they have some special you know, superpower or something

713
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: that it's going to continue. Like, I don't see any

714
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 1: reason for the trend to continue beyond fifty to fifty

715
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 1: going forward. Do you think the Packers are a bit overrated?

716
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,880
Speaker 1: And to think about the Packers, they're very well coached.

717
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: They're well schemed, well coached, like if you just watch

718
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: their film, their play design, things like that, and especially

719
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: now that you got Barry on defense out of there,

720
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: I mean that now it's like they're not just losing

721
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: games because of their defense, Like this same team with

722
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 1: Barry might be like four and seven or whatever it is.

723
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 1: So I do think the Packers are running a little hot.

724
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 1: And I think the Dolphins are underrated because they had

725
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: that they had this whole stretch of games where they

726
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 1: just had nobody at quarterback and so you know, that's

727
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 1: I think that's always hard for people, even some professionals,

728
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 1: to kind of adjust the numbers, you know, correctly to

729
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: reflect you know, the current state of the team. But

730
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: this is this is this looks like that team that, uh,

731
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 1: that really good Dolphins team from a couple years ago,

732
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 1: and they were just kind of blowing the doors off

733
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: everyone offensively, and then their defense has pieces man and

734
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 1: it's starting to play really well. So you do it

735
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 1: on the key. The key for me is the Packers

736
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,120
Speaker 1: live on pressure on defense, and they don't get pressure.

737
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 1: They're I think they give up over eight yards at temp.

738
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: Who was getting the ball I think the quickest in

739
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: the NFL. So and you've got, you know, four different

740
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: guys that could just go after the catch, so you

741
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 1: can get a lot of the Greenway Packers defensive strength

742
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: with this style of offense. The more I think about it,

743
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what the what is the

744
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: cold really going to do because Devon h Chan gonna

745
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: not be fast or something. I gotta I don't know

746
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 1: what the cold is exactly going to do uh in

747
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 1: this spot. But yeah, I like the Dolphins.

748
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think any win hurts the Packers more because

749
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 2: they want to throw it down field more. All Right.

750
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: For my third pick in the sixth overall of the

751
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: week thirteen holiday six pack, I am going with the

752
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: New England Patriots plus three. Make sure you get the

753
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 1: three paces. Get by the juice if you can. But

754
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: I like this at three here against the Colts. I

755
00:42:23,320 --> 00:42:25,720
Speaker 1: think this is a This is just a bad spot

756
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: for the Coats. I know, like they're at home and

757
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 1: they get brown out by Detroit and our guy having

758
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:34,920
Speaker 1: Abrams always points out that teams got faced Detroit like

759
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 1: the next week just horrible against the spread. Detroit is

760
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 1: a very physical team. And you already see it. You know,

761
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:45,399
Speaker 1: your best receiver week to week, uh, your center in.

762
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: I've never been the Colts. The Colts game again, at

763
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,240
Speaker 2: their receivers. If I bet against them, they're all healthy

764
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 2: and they play. If I bet against them, right, I

765
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,760
Speaker 2: bet on them, then their receivers all get hurt. It's ridiculous.

766
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, oh, I will say this so so

767
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: about the receivers. Josh Downs has been their best receiver.

768
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: He's been targeted on thirty percent of his routes. He's

769
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: week to week, doesn't look like he's gonna go h

770
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: Ashton doing key special teamer and you know others like

771
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: a make some plays, also runs gets jet sleeps. He

772
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: looks like he's gonna be out multiple weeks. Michael Pittman

773
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 1: had I think six seven catches for like ninety yards,

774
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: but he can't move like if you watch him like

775
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 1: he's he's his back injury is clearly he's still bothering,

776
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: even though I don't know if he was. I don't

777
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 1: think he was on the injury report, the final report,

778
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 1: but like they're currently playing games with him on the

779
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 1: injury report like cause he he does not look right

780
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: out there. And so now you take away downs and

781
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: Ady Mitchell, he'll he'll slot in, but he's been kind

782
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 1: of up and down. He's had some weird, weird stretches.

783
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: He's talented, but you're going pretty thin now on offense

784
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 1: because you're you're out your best receiver, your left tackle

785
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: is banged up, you're up your your center, your star

786
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: centers on ir your backup centers, and concussion protocol. And

787
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, the efficiency really hasn't been there for him

788
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 1: lately either. So and Anthony Richardson, I mean, I don't know.

789
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: I guess it was a flash of that. Maybe the

790
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 1: Jets are just that down bad. I don't like, I know,

791
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: Detroit is a good defense, but Anthony Richardson just reverted

792
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: back to not being able to complete passes again. And

793
00:44:20,120 --> 00:44:22,239
Speaker 1: so now you've got an outdoor tea indoor team going

794
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 1: outdoors kind of a game that they probably think they

795
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: should win. Might take it a little lightly. A lot

796
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,200
Speaker 1: of things going on, you're on the road, it's the holiday.

797
00:44:30,600 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: I think this could be another kind of flat spot

798
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:38,680
Speaker 1: for the Colts here, and you're facing a man coverage defense,

799
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: and you would think that, okay, man coverage, that a

800
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,920
Speaker 1: should benefit Anthony Richardson because you know you can you

801
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,520
Speaker 1: can move you like you got guys turning and running

802
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 1: with the receivers. Well, Anthony Richardson is thirty eight out

803
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 1: of thirty nine quarterbacks in passerating against man coverage thirtieth

804
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 1: to thirty nine and epa per drop back against man coverage.

805
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 1: So the Patriots have been pretty aggressive with their main concepts,

806
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 1: I mean where they have to lose. So this could

807
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: go bad for uh the Indianapolis Colts here and the

808
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: coach defense is they're playing better than expected, but they're

809
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 1: not like prohibitive to the point where I would be

810
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 1: scared of them. I think Drake May is gonna be

811
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: able to put up some points on it. He'll probably

812
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 1: you know, make a mistake or two, but he's gonna

813
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 1: he's gonna throw the ball up and play some single

814
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 1: high so get some shot opportunities. Down the sideline.

815
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: Uh.

816
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 1: So, I think this coach team is very beatable by

817
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,359
Speaker 1: this Patriots team. And I think they actually might show

818
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 1: up here because last week a lot was made of,

819
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: you know, if they wanted to. They didn't practice in

820
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: pads last week against the Dolphins, and they were like, oh, well,

821
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 1: they're fast teams, so we're not gonna practice in pads

822
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: because we want to stay light. I don't know, it

823
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: made no sense. But this week, you know, physical run

824
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 1: based team and a coach, so we're gonna practice in

825
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 1: pads this week. So when I when I hear that,

826
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 1: they usually teams usually come oulready, they usually tackle better,

827
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 1: they usually hit harder, and you have this coach team

828
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 1: coming off a physical game against the Lions. I just

829
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 1: think that this it's, you know, a little bit of

830
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:11,680
Speaker 1: a projection. I don't have I have this number inside

831
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: of three, but it's also a bit of like a

832
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: gut feeld that I just think the Patriots might catch

833
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 1: the Colts a little off guard here, and uh and

834
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: I think there's a winnable game for them, So give

835
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 1: me New England plus three.

836
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 2: Patriots defense is getting healthier overall, so that helps us well.

837
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:30,399
Speaker 2: More on this game later.

838
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: That was our Week thirteen. Howadays, six pack. Let's see

839
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: what quarterbacks we got. So we got Bryce Young, Kirk Cousins,

840
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 1: tua some I mean, Bryce Young is dealing. So you

841
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: actually got some pretty good quarterbacks. I got Levis, Caleb

842
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 1: and Drake may so even got some young up and

843
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 1: coming guys and Kirk Cousins so not not the worst

844
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: set of quarterbacks. So again, Carolina plus six, Atlanta plus

845
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 1: two and a half, Miami plus three and a half,

846
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:00,080
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus five and a half, Chicago plus ten and

847
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 1: a half in New England plus three. That's gonna do

848
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 1: it for our Week thirteen Holaday six Pack. Now it's

849
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 1: time for our coaches pep talk. Every time we get

850
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,279
Speaker 1: ready to play, I just want to throw up.

851
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: I'm sick.

852
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,479
Speaker 1: I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad can it get?

853
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:14,920
Speaker 6: All?

854
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 5: Right?

855
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: This week's coaches pep Talk comes to us from Steve

856
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 1: Martin in the nineteen ninety film My Blue Heaven. I'm

857
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: dedicating it to who else, Tommy DeVito, Tommy Tutlet, Tommy Forearms.

858
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is, but I've just had enough.

859
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: I've just had enough of this guy. This is a

860
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: joke like this is disgraceful, Like we thought it was

861
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 1: disgraceful when he benched Ei Manning for Gino Smith, Like

862
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: now it's like he makes Daniel Jones with like Joe Montana.

863
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 1: It's just ridiculous. I was in a hurry.

864
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: I was on my way to church to say a

865
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: few Nolvena's for Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is not a Catholic holiday.

866
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is very big with the Italians. Turkey Catcher, Tory,

867
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,399
Speaker 1: sweet Betta, parmer Jean. There is no such thing as

868
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving in Italy. It is an American holiday. Ever been

869
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 1: to Sicily by any chance.

870
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:09,720
Speaker 4: No, Thanksgiving is very big in Sicily on account of

871
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,040
Speaker 4: the large number of Sicilians who went to America and

872
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:14,479
Speaker 4: then got thrown back out.

873
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 1: That's our spaches peptalk. Let's get into our favorite total

874
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 1: of the week. We are combined fifteen and nine on

875
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,279
Speaker 1: totals this year been pretty good. Here you went first

876
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:27,400
Speaker 1: on the sixth pack, so I'll kick it off for

877
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 1: the total going with Ravens Eagles first half under twenty

878
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: five and a half. I've gone for a few of

879
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 1: these Eagles first half unders this year. I don't think

880
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,879
Speaker 1: I've lost yet. They are nine to two on the year,

881
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: and I think the Eagles, like most a lot of

882
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: first half overs have actually been hitting and then game

883
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,279
Speaker 1: goes under the second half. But the Eagles tend to

884
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,400
Speaker 1: be the exception to the rule because they lead the

885
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 1: league in first half rushing attempts. They love to run

886
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 1: the ball as much as they can, and they are

887
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 1: very good defense, and defense is their past. Defense is

888
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,720
Speaker 1: top five and pretty much every metric across the board,

889
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: especially in the first half. So you look at Philadelphi

890
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 1: had ten point one first half points per game, that's

891
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 1: eighteenth and then in the second half they're number one

892
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 1: in the league. And guess who was number two? Baltimore.

893
00:49:17,239 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 1: So both of these teams score more points in the

894
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 1: second half than the first. Baltimore also tends to be

895
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 1: a little bit run heavy. You got Derrick Henry, why not.

896
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: But I like this matchup. I think this is a

897
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 1: high total obviously, because you've got a lot of talent

898
00:49:33,080 --> 00:49:36,200
Speaker 1: on these offenses. You've got quarterbacks who can scramble and

899
00:49:36,200 --> 00:49:39,440
Speaker 1: make plays out of structure. But these teams love to run.

900
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: Baltimore can stop the run. They are eight number eight

901
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 1: and run defense DVOA top two and second level yardage

902
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 1: allowed and open field yardage allowed, which is massive obviously

903
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 1: when you're going against Saquon Barkley and Jay when Hurts.

904
00:49:55,800 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 1: And Philadelphia's defense is excellent number five in pass defense,

905
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,959
Speaker 1: ninth against the run, so should be able to limit

906
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: some of the just explosives that Lamar Jackson's been getting,

907
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: Zay Flowers, Bateman, They're all playing really well the tight

908
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 1: Philadelphia is also one of the best teams in terms

909
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: of DVOA against tight ends, which is obviously key going

910
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 1: up against Mark Andrews Isaiah Likely, so I think this

911
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,239
Speaker 1: is a good defensive matchup. I think this brought the

912
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: full game total is probably a bit high too, but

913
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:28,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, stuck, You've talked about these Baltimore

914
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: games tend to fly over one way or another. A

915
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: lot of that has come in the second half. Both

916
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 1: of these defenses also top ten in first half points allowed,

917
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 1: so overall everything kind of adds up here. I like

918
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 1: taking these two teams that are gonna wean on their

919
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 1: try to ween on their run games early, I think,

920
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 1: and I think Baltimore is also getting better pass defensive wise.

921
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 1: I like some of the things I saw against the Chargers,

922
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: So give me first half under twenty five and a half.

923
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 1: Twenty four and a half is fine as well.

924
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I I want to wait on the injuries to

925
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:14,320
Speaker 2: the Smiths Davante and Roquan, who I think are both important.

926
00:51:14,400 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 2: Rocon especially in this matchup, and same with Davante, having

927
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 2: like two really reliable receivers on the outside is important

928
00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 2: going up against the Ravens. But yeah, I mean at

929
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 2: two and a half, I like the Ravens at three.

930
00:51:31,840 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 2: If Rocan's back especially and Davante's not. I mean, you

931
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:40,720
Speaker 2: just trust Lamar in these games. Trust the Ravens against

932
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 2: the NFC. You know, when he's a favorite of a

933
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,280
Speaker 2: field goal or lesser as an underdog, that's he's been dominant.

934
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 2: And I mean this offense, I'm really fascinated to watch

935
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 2: this really significantly improved Eagles defense. He proven is real

936
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:59,399
Speaker 2: against this historically great Ravens offense, which if you look

937
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 2: at by like DVOA, historically they're like seventh best overall.

938
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 2: Right now, Lamar has twenty seven touchdowns and three interceptions.

939
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 2: His three interceptions, two of them were ripped away from

940
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:14,360
Speaker 2: the receiver that were there. He already caught it and

941
00:52:14,400 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 2: they were ripped away. And the other one, the receiver

942
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 2: was right in the receiver's hands and it bounced up

943
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 2: and was picked. Those are his three picks this year.

944
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:25,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm fascinated to watch that side of the ball.

945
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: Uh waiting news. But lean Ravens at home, But it

946
00:52:31,239 --> 00:52:34,919
Speaker 2: isn't the best spot in the world in that short week,

947
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 2: coming back across the country and they haven't had a

948
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: bye yet, so like it's the very end of their

949
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:45,520
Speaker 2: string of games on a short week. But I mean

950
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,400
Speaker 2: Eagles coming back across the country as well for the

951
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:49,880
Speaker 2: second road game, maybe that neutralizes that a bit. So

952
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: I generally trust the Ravens at home in these big spots,

953
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 2: especially if this was under a field goal. But I

954
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:56,720
Speaker 2: don't mind your underlook.

955
00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 1: And before we move on, here a quick announcement, Action

956
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: Network is running back are annual Black Friday sale, offering

957
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,640
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958
00:53:08,040 --> 00:53:12,200
Speaker 1: Action Pro subscription. If you're still on a Pro subscriber,

959
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:16,239
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960
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 1: get forty dollars off a year or pro receive instant

961
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 1: access to all of the picks and projections for myself,

962
00:53:23,560 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, Stucky and the whole Action Network squad. That's

963
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot Com Slash black Friday for the best price

964
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 1: of the year on Action Pro.

965
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 2: All right, So for my favorite total, I'm gonna go

966
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:42,600
Speaker 2: with the Seahawks Jets under forty one and a half.

967
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 2: This is just a bet on the Seahawks defense, which

968
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 2: I still think is undervalued. They're trending in the right

969
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 2: direction across the board. I also think the Jets the

970
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 2: back end of their defense was all they were all

971
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: dealing with the lingering injuries, so I think they should

972
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 2: be healthier here coming out of the buy. I have

973
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,480
Speaker 2: no idea what's going on with the Jets offense. The

974
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:05,040
Speaker 2: Seahawks also won't should they don't really run the ball? Well,

975
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 2: that's really the Achilles heel for the Jets. Well, I

976
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,040
Speaker 2: don't know what's going on with the Rogers. He's hurt?

977
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 2: Is he not gonna play? I think he's gonna play now,

978
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 2: but there's rumors that he's not.

979
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 1: I mean, the owner tried to bench him. I'm sure

980
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 1: he's pissed off. Like it's hard not hard to read

981
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,760
Speaker 1: between the lines, like they leaked at the owner wanted

982
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 1: to bench him, like the owner of all people, like

983
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 1: he's supposed to be like the biggest fanboy. Oh just

984
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 1: get me all the like do Danian Thomas in all

985
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: these stars? And he's actually talking about benching Rodgers has

986
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 1: to be a pretty big, like hit to your ego.

987
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 1: So I'm sure he's just pissed. That's and that's why

988
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: all this is happening.

989
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: And I do think Rogers is hurt though something yet

990
00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 2: on the wrong side of forty and he gets hit.

991
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: He gets sacked a lot because he can't move.

992
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, so outdoor game in December, Seahawks defense trending up,

993
00:54:54,719 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 2: give me the under.

994
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm kicking myself. I think I said on the

995
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 1: show last week, I think the Seahawks are going to

996
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 1: be a under team. And I'm kicking myself for not

997
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:08,759
Speaker 1: betting that Seahawks Cardinals under because yeah, that's not never

998
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:10,920
Speaker 1: even swept. But they're playing a lot of too high

999
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:14,160
Speaker 1: and they're healthy now.

1000
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:17,320
Speaker 2: And lines healthy, which is huge. Yeah, the second corners

1001
00:55:17,360 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 2: are healthy.

1002
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:19,879
Speaker 1: Too, so yeah, so they can trust their corners when

1003
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: they need to, you know, on the outside. But then

1004
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 1: they're playing a lot of too high, so that's you know,

1005
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:27,880
Speaker 1: went with the explosives. But then also they could stop

1006
00:55:27,880 --> 00:55:29,879
Speaker 1: the run with their guys you know, in the front seven.

1007
00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 1: So it's all just starting to click for the Seahawks.

1008
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 1: And Gino Smith just can't throw touchdowns for some reason.

1009
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think the Seahawks probably going to be

1010
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,359
Speaker 1: under team UH to close out the year. All right,

1011
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 1: So Jet Seattle under forty one and a half, Ravens

1012
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 1: Eagles first half under twenty five and a half. Now

1013
00:55:49,040 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 1: it's time for our favorite teaser of the week.

1014
00:55:53,680 --> 00:56:00,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1015
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: Don't change. Don't tease me please. Seems like there hasn't

1016
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: been as many opportunities this year. I don't really like

1017
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: as many teasers each week. I don't really see many.

1018
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 1: I like it all actually most weeks. So this is

1019
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 1: ki of another one of those weeks. But I do

1020
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 1: have one, and I think you have one as well.

1021
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 1: So where you're.

1022
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 2: Going, Yeah, I'll just keep it simple. The two lowest

1023
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 2: totals on the board, you can tease through three and seven.

1024
00:56:31,480 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 2: So let's go Patriots out to eight and a half

1025
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:37,879
Speaker 2: in Jets out to eight and a half as well.

1026
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with the Steelers up to nine and

1027
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 1: the Egos up to nine. And it's not the traditional,

1028
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 1: you know, long teaser, but it's like I said, it's

1029
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:51,839
Speaker 1: been kind of I mean, I'm it's I don't love

1030
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: the Jets. I guess you're higher them than me. I

1031
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 1: I just don't know what I'm going to get for

1032
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: the Jets, at least, like you said offensively. So I

1033
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 1: don't I do fear like they'm like it's like a

1034
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 1: you know, sixteen to three something like that. But I

1035
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:08,440
Speaker 1: do trust Pittsburgh to steak post tom Win is a

1036
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 1: dog sixty one thirty one and three sixty six percent

1037
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 1: against the spread, so you get six six extra points.

1038
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 1: I trust them to stay within a possession against that

1039
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 1: Bengals defense, because I mean, who doesn't. And uh, Philadelphia Baltimore.

1040
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 1: I just think that's gonna be a close game. I

1041
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 1: think that's just two very good teams. So I don't

1042
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 1: Baltimore could end up, you know, I guess, blowing them out,

1043
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 1: but I doubt it. I think Philadelphia shows up here.

1044
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: I think they're very they're they're they can match Baltimore

1045
00:57:36,520 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 1: and at most it's like a kind of like the

1046
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 1: Chargers game, like a thirty to twenty three, you know,

1047
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 1: seven pointers, so getting them to nine. So well, Pittsburgh

1048
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 1: and Philly the two two PA teams two plus nine each.

1049
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 2: I kind of lean Cincy, but I need I would

1050
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 2: one under three. I need Orlando Brown to.

1051
00:57:59,680 --> 00:58:00,040
Speaker 5: Be in.

1052
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I need to know that he's healthy because

1053
00:58:03,240 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 2: high spit's back.

1054
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm actually so, I will say this, and I

1055
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:10,840
Speaker 1: was thinking of going Pittsburgh for our six pack. But

1056
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,520
Speaker 1: the reason I don't want to go Pittsburgh is because

1057
00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: it is they have been getting lucky. Cincinnati actually is

1058
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,080
Speaker 1: a luck ranking game side, and those have hit over

1059
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,680
Speaker 1: sixty percent, so it's kind of you know, it's right

1060
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 1: up there with the tom Win trends on the other side.

1061
00:58:26,440 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 1: But I can't get to the three though, for since

1062
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 1: like I have Pittsburgh and Cincinnati rated fairly evenly, and

1063
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:40,520
Speaker 1: I know since he's coming off the bibe, Pittsburgh's coming

1064
00:58:40,560 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 1: off ten day rest itself, and you know, home fielder

1065
00:58:46,640 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 1: isn't worth a ton these days, so I just can't

1066
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,080
Speaker 1: get to the I just can't get to the number

1067
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 1: for Cincinnati. Like I show value on Pittsburgh, and I

1068
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 1: mean usually it's just a kind of a auto bet

1069
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 1: with tomlin Is Dougs. So I don't know any thought

1070
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 1: any like, what what's what's we doing you toward Cincinnati?

1071
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:05,080
Speaker 1: Is it the luck factor?

1072
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 2: Just I have no I have Cincinnati rated h about

1073
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:14,920
Speaker 2: a point better than the Steelers.

1074
00:59:14,400 --> 00:59:18,480
Speaker 1: Higgins and with Higgins back and everything, yeah yeah, Higgins back.

1075
00:59:18,520 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 2: But I need Brown in there. I need Rankins, who's

1076
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 2: dealing with like an ill like a viral illness. They

1077
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 2: don't know if he'll be good to go, but they

1078
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 2: need him up front. They need like that. As soon

1079
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 2: as they lose like one guy up front of their day,

1080
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:33,400
Speaker 2: take it stops. They can't get it's so bad.

1081
00:59:33,480 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: Oh my god.

1082
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know, they're coming off a bye here

1083
00:59:36,640 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 2: to season on the line.

1084
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 1: How many times when we said that though, like the

1085
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 1: here's what the thing about the Bengals team, Like I

1086
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 1: because I agree, you know, both of us coming they

1087
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 1: always do show up.

1088
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:46,360
Speaker 2: They just lose a heartbreak.

1089
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 1: Bet Yeah, it's like, but that's that's why I worry

1090
00:59:49,160 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 1: about them. Is a favorite. Like at this point, it's

1091
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 1: funny because it's like you could say this about most

1092
00:59:54,440 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 1: teams because there's I don't know, it's just a weird

1093
00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 1: year where there's like either you have a quarterback or

1094
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:00,400
Speaker 1: you don't. But like the only team since and Natty

1095
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:02,880
Speaker 1: beat Now we're in week thirteen. The only teams they

1096
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 1: beat are Carolina the Giants, So even with Deshaun Watson

1097
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:11,200
Speaker 1: and the Raiders, like they and they played everyone else close.

1098
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 1: Like I was, like they almost beat Baltimore twice, casey,

1099
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 1: but like they did it. So it's just funny to

1100
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 1: like you're sitting here in week thirteen and those are

1101
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 1: their four wins. I mean, yeah, they're a tough one.

1102
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 1: I think I was still beating Pittsburgh though it's tom

1103
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:29,360
Speaker 1: Win voodoo Man, that defense with high Smith healthy. I

1104
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 1: don't know. I just I have I have them rated equally.

1105
01:00:31,760 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 1: I have the Bengals offense raided really well, but their

1106
01:00:35,240 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 1: defense gives a lot of it back, a lot of it.

1107
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 2: That's fair, all right.

1108
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 1: So that was our teasers Jets Jets up to eight,

1109
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:50,760
Speaker 1: Patriots up to nine, and then Steelers up to nine,

1110
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 1: and Eagles up to nine. For me, now it's time

1111
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 1: for our underdog money line parley.

1112
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:02,920
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1113
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:04,400
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1114
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 1: I'll keep it simple. I already talked about the Steers.

1115
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:09,560
Speaker 1: That's who I'm going with from my money line, Doug

1116
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. I haven't just seen this too

1117
01:01:11,600 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: many times. Steers just win games on the road when

1118
01:01:14,840 --> 01:01:17,960
Speaker 1: they're an underdog. I think Tomin's almost five hundred as

1119
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: a dog. Like money line, we will not go gently.

1120
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 1: We will unleash hell here in December, We're gonna go

1121
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:27,120
Speaker 1: into tack mode because we have to, because that's what's required.

1122
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 1: Give me the Steers plus one thirty five. Where you going.

1123
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 2: Let's go with the quarterback on certainty play. Let's go

1124
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:36,320
Speaker 2: to Jacksonville plus one ninety. This line's way too high.

1125
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 2: If Lawrence plays with the state of the Texans, the

1126
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 2: Texans offense is broken. If you look up. I was

1127
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 2: just talking about Bryce Young's numbers like adjusted EPA for

1128
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:50,880
Speaker 2: play since he's returned from his benching. Over that same span,

1129
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:56,440
Speaker 2: Strouds dead last a monk qualified quarterbacks. He's not playing well.

1130
01:01:57,360 --> 01:02:03,720
Speaker 2: The pressure is just not unstop. The Texans need to

1131
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,320
Speaker 2: get to a buy their buys next week and then

1132
01:02:06,360 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 2: they need to sort things out. Problem is, they don't

1133
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 2: have a buye this week, and they're like the sidelines

1134
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 2: all the bickering, and it's bad right now in Houston,

1135
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:18,480
Speaker 2: and they don't even have like this huge sense of

1136
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:21,800
Speaker 2: urgency because like they're gonna win their division. They're three

1137
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 2: games up with five to go, and the Jags coming

1138
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 2: off of a bye. If Lawrence plays, I think this

1139
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 2: is one of the few games left where they'll get up,

1140
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,560
Speaker 2: really get up for you know, if you look at

1141
01:02:36,560 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 2: the rest of their schedule, it's like the Titans a

1142
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: couple of times, the Jets, the Raiders, like this game

1143
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 2: against the first place Texans at home, assuming Lawrence plays,

1144
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:47,200
Speaker 2: is why I'd rather take a shot with the money.

1145
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:49,280
Speaker 2: He practiced. But I don't know what's going on, Like

1146
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 2: they're just gonna be like, oh, let's we'll worry about

1147
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 2: his health. We're out of it, let's go for a

1148
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:55,760
Speaker 2: draft pick. I don't know.

1149
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 1: That's what I'm thinking about. So I was having this

1150
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,120
Speaker 1: thought because you and I are talking about this, and

1151
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: I was tempted to go Jags as well. I agree, Yeah,

1152
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:08,160
Speaker 1: And so here's what I'm thinking. The fact that they

1153
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 1: returned to practice at all all out of the by

1154
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:14,600
Speaker 1: after having this like a surgery, tells me that they

1155
01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:17,439
Speaker 1: they do actually want to play it straight and try

1156
01:03:17,440 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 1: to win. And remember a couple of years ago they

1157
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:22,080
Speaker 1: didn't Jags start like one and eight or two and

1158
01:03:22,240 --> 01:03:24,320
Speaker 1: nine and just win every game. Go get to like

1159
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:26,280
Speaker 1: eight to nine and have that game for the last

1160
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 1: for the division on the last day of the season

1161
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. Like I could you want to? We should

1162
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,840
Speaker 1: bet some Jags AFC South, like if they beat the Texans,

1163
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 1: and the Texans are very beatable. Uh, you got the

1164
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:43,440
Speaker 1: Colts who can't complete passes and the Titans who at

1165
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:46,120
Speaker 1: some point are probably just gonna throw pick sixes again.

1166
01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:51,800
Speaker 1: So like, ge't the Jaggers. Aren't they still mathematically alive

1167
01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 1: if they just run the table against the schedule, Yeah,

1168
01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 1: against their shit schedule. Like, I think we should get

1169
01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:01,120
Speaker 1: some Jags AFC South futures right now.

1170
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:06,760
Speaker 2: And the Texans if they lose this game, they're seven

1171
01:04:06,800 --> 01:04:10,440
Speaker 2: and six and the rest of their schedule is Dolphins,

1172
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:14,280
Speaker 2: Chiefs Ravens at Titans.

1173
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:18,200
Speaker 1: Ooh, and maybe let's get some Texans to miss the

1174
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 1: playoffs futures too. I hate to do it because I

1175
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:24,880
Speaker 1: love Stroud and that, but like it's I've never thought

1176
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 1: so hard about a team, like I've never wondered so

1177
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 1: much about a team, like what do y'all do at practice?

1178
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 1: Like I really would love to see Texans practices because

1179
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 1: I get the impression that it's like they practice and

1180
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 1: it's like they're like almost it's almost like it's arrogant,

1181
01:04:38,600 --> 01:04:40,920
Speaker 1: Like they're like running all these plays and everyone. There

1182
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 1: are a lot of talented guys and they're just killing

1183
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:44,320
Speaker 1: it in practice and like they think it's going to

1184
01:04:44,400 --> 01:04:46,000
Speaker 1: go that way in the game and it just doesn't

1185
01:04:46,040 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 1: and they're just like what's going on, Like it's it's

1186
01:04:49,360 --> 01:04:52,000
Speaker 1: like it's just it's just ridiculous, Like they just make

1187
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:54,120
Speaker 1: it's so sloppy, so undisciplined.

1188
01:04:54,240 --> 01:04:58,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, I also a key, a key loss for

1189
01:04:59,080 --> 01:05:02,720
Speaker 2: the defense is on Petrie. He did a lot for them.

1190
01:05:02,880 --> 01:05:04,320
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's gonna be back this year.

1191
01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,840
Speaker 2: He's tours packed, definitely not playing this week.

1192
01:05:07,160 --> 01:05:10,720
Speaker 1: So if you parway Pittsburgh plus one thirty five, Jacksonville

1193
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:14,600
Speaker 1: plus one ninety get plus five point eighty two for

1194
01:05:14,840 --> 01:05:17,520
Speaker 1: your parway. All right, time for best of the rest,

1195
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:19,320
Speaker 1: which are the games we did not discuss in any

1196
01:05:19,320 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 1: other segment.

1197
01:05:21,040 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 5: That's gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1198
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 5: to some of you, so you know.

1199
01:05:25,720 --> 01:05:28,040
Speaker 1: What I mean. First up, we have the Kansas City

1200
01:05:28,120 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 1: Chiefs hosting the Raiders on Black Friday, three eastern on

1201
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:39,160
Speaker 1: Prime Video. The Chiefs are twelve point favorites. The total

1202
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:44,160
Speaker 1: is forty two and a half. I want to take

1203
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:49,760
Speaker 1: the Raiders. It's interesting that it's a public side though,

1204
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 1: so but it's also a luck ranking game in favor

1205
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:57,080
Speaker 1: of the Raiders. Raiders are thirtieth and luck Chiefs are

1206
01:05:57,160 --> 01:06:02,439
Speaker 1: number one. So unlucky teams have been one, twenty seven,

1207
01:06:02,560 --> 01:06:06,440
Speaker 1: seventy four and six sixty two point eight percent dating

1208
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:11,000
Speaker 1: back to twenty eighteen, so this is a lot of points.

1209
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:14,680
Speaker 1: The Raiders haven't always stayed posts. But I this Chiefs team, man,

1210
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 1: I just I don't know if they're gonna just I

1211
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:19,960
Speaker 1: don't know if they're gonna get their blowout. Like, and

1212
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 1: we saw this Raiders team play him hard. Eight and

1213
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:25,320
Speaker 1: O'Connell eight and two against the spread. Uh, Antonio pears

1214
01:06:25,320 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 1: with everyone else. I think he's like two to nine

1215
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 1: or something. But eight and O'Connell eight and two, So

1216
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:31,400
Speaker 1: I ween Raiders, But uh, what do you think?

1217
01:06:32,360 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably a stay away from me. I mean,

1218
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:36,200
Speaker 2: the Raiders have it unlucky. They were covering like ten percent.

1219
01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 2: They were covered like ten percent of their fumbles, league's worst,

1220
01:06:39,920 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 2: ten percent of all fumbles in their games, league's worst

1221
01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:47,880
Speaker 2: turnover margin. I just it's a short week for O'Connell,

1222
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 2: who's now in his second year and will be on

1223
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:54,200
Speaker 2: his fourth play caller already, Like I don't know if

1224
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:55,920
Speaker 2: that's ideal, and we don't know if he can like

1225
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 2: fully grip is that and like he might not go

1226
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,480
Speaker 2: there's still an outside chance of that, And then I

1227
01:07:02,480 --> 01:07:06,240
Speaker 2: don't want any part of Desmond Ritter. The Chiefs pass defense,

1228
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 2: I've been saying this for a month is vulnerable and

1229
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:11,040
Speaker 2: it wasn't. And they've lost Watson, which hurt because they

1230
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:14,280
Speaker 2: don't have any depth of corner. But early in the

1231
01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:17,320
Speaker 2: season they were just benefiting from, you know, injuries of

1232
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 2: on other teams. But I'm not sure the Raiders are

1233
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 2: the team that can fully take advantage of that. Raiders

1234
01:07:23,400 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 2: want to take away the explosive play, the Chiefs don't

1235
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 2: have any. The Chiefs offense is getting closer to like

1236
01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:31,560
Speaker 2: like their defense is trending down and their offenses, I

1237
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 2: think is trending up. But betting the Chiefs is double

1238
01:07:36,360 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 2: digits favorite and no thanks is all.

1239
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 1: Now you guys, I think it's Raiders or nothing. I mean,

1240
01:07:40,400 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 1: like this is I wish this game was in Vegas

1241
01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: and the other game was in Casey because how did

1242
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:48,600
Speaker 1: you bet the Raiders Raiders Chiefs? It don't seems to

1243
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 1: be the same games in the Holidays. But I feel

1244
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 1: like I remember you betting.

1245
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 2: Well, I bet the Raiders plus ten, yeah in Vegas.

1246
01:07:54,880 --> 01:07:59,800
Speaker 2: So now this is twelve. So yeah, I mean I

1247
01:08:00,360 --> 01:08:03,840
Speaker 2: could see that I would need for if I had fourteen. Yeah,

1248
01:08:04,000 --> 01:08:04,880
Speaker 2: I definitely bet it.

1249
01:08:05,560 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. But games tend to get away from the Raiders somehow.

1250
01:08:08,880 --> 01:08:11,160
Speaker 1: I mean, looking at their like you would think they

1251
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:13,960
Speaker 1: would cover more. I mean they you have Bowers, you have.

1252
01:08:14,000 --> 01:08:16,200
Speaker 1: I mean it's not like you have no talent. I

1253
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 1: know some running backs are hurt, but I mean bowers.

1254
01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:21,240
Speaker 2: Know if their corners are going to play, like.

1255
01:08:21,400 --> 01:08:22,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's big.

1256
01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:24,800
Speaker 2: That's like they don't if they don't, if they're two

1257
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:26,040
Speaker 2: starting corners are out again.

1258
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:28,320
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are trying out Justin Watson for the most

1259
01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 1: routes of all their receivers, even though they got Hopkins

1260
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,960
Speaker 1: and Worthy like it's their Their rotation is so weird

1261
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:37,200
Speaker 1: at a receiver like hot they Hopkins plays like the

1262
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:42,280
Speaker 1: fourth most. It's odd, but yeah, I mean I personally

1263
01:08:42,280 --> 01:08:46,000
Speaker 1: mean Raiders. But you're right at twelve and kind of

1264
01:08:46,000 --> 01:08:47,880
Speaker 1: a dead number. I think it came down from I

1265
01:08:47,880 --> 01:08:49,439
Speaker 1: think it was at thirteen at one point. I probably

1266
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 1: would have felt better about that. But it also could

1267
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:55,160
Speaker 1: uh jump back up river. This is uh yeah, and

1268
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:57,920
Speaker 1: this is a you know, it's like a Black Friday

1269
01:08:57,960 --> 01:09:00,360
Speaker 1: Island game, so I'm sure a lot of casual action,

1270
01:09:00,840 --> 01:09:03,360
Speaker 1: you know, maybe even get a you know, free half

1271
01:09:03,400 --> 01:09:07,000
Speaker 1: point point late late before right before kick or something.

1272
01:09:07,040 --> 01:09:10,360
Speaker 1: So I guess stay posted to follow us in the app,

1273
01:09:10,400 --> 01:09:16,799
Speaker 1: see what we do. Arizona Minnesota in Minnesota, Vikings favored

1274
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:21,840
Speaker 1: by three and a half. Total is forty five. Arizona's

1275
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:23,800
Speaker 1: been a tough team for me to read, so that

1276
01:09:23,840 --> 01:09:27,759
Speaker 1: that's another team I really haven't been betting on too much.

1277
01:09:29,040 --> 01:09:33,680
Speaker 1: I do think Minnesota is going to be vulnerable. It

1278
01:09:33,720 --> 01:09:36,320
Speaker 1: is vulnerable to you know, like they're not They're not

1279
01:09:36,360 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 1: just undust, bulletproof team that you know. I think they

1280
01:09:38,960 --> 01:09:41,400
Speaker 1: when they start five and zero and everything was going great,

1281
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:43,840
Speaker 1: like you're starting to see some of the cracks, but

1282
01:09:44,840 --> 01:09:48,879
Speaker 1: still a very talented team, and uh, you know Darnom's

1283
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:51,920
Speaker 1: being aggressive. Eventually that's gonna come back to bite them.

1284
01:09:52,080 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 1: It hasn't a couple of games. But I don't know.

1285
01:09:53,800 --> 01:09:55,639
Speaker 1: I can't get a good read on this Arizona team.

1286
01:09:56,160 --> 01:09:57,519
Speaker 1: Like I thought they were gonna be bad on d

1287
01:09:57,680 --> 01:10:00,839
Speaker 1: and they're better, But now they couldn't run against Seattle,

1288
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:03,080
Speaker 1: which I don't know if is the start of a trend,

1289
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:04,439
Speaker 1: And so I don't know what do you make of

1290
01:10:04,479 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 1: this Cardinals squad here?

1291
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, if they can't run, then that really hurts everything else.

1292
01:10:12,479 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 2: And I don't know if they'll be able to run here,

1293
01:10:15,000 --> 01:10:19,679
Speaker 2: but I think that they're they're kind of they've obviously

1294
01:10:19,680 --> 01:10:24,400
Speaker 2: shown that they don't want to play outdoors and or

1295
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:26,439
Speaker 2: like their results are kind of tied to that. Look, well,

1296
01:10:26,439 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 2: look what happened. They went to Green Bay in Seattle.

1297
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:31,960
Speaker 2: It wasn't pretty. So it helps that they'll be indoors here.

1298
01:10:34,080 --> 01:10:37,639
Speaker 2: Minnesota off three straight road games coming home. That can

1299
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:44,080
Speaker 2: actually be a tricky spot, something like Howiday. So, but

1300
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:47,240
Speaker 2: I think the number is about right. I got no

1301
01:10:47,520 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 2: strong take.

1302
01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:52,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's Arizona's just really tough to read because even

1303
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 1: finally got him.

1304
01:10:53,080 --> 01:10:57,000
Speaker 2: Last week, but I i'd Seattle, but I can't. I

1305
01:10:57,040 --> 01:10:58,599
Speaker 2: still can't fully figure them out.

1306
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:01,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, because Kyra's play and better, but his numbers are

1307
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 1: not as good. And like can he throw? Can? Is?

1308
01:11:04,400 --> 01:11:07,479
Speaker 1: Like what's good with their downfield passing game? It's it's yeah,

1309
01:11:07,560 --> 01:11:10,760
Speaker 1: it's it's odd, but yeah, nothing on paper.

1310
01:11:10,800 --> 01:11:12,960
Speaker 2: They shouldn't be able to cover these Bikings receivers.

1311
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:16,120
Speaker 1: Ok, they shouldn't, but I mean they got I will

1312
01:11:16,120 --> 01:11:17,439
Speaker 1: give their defense credit because you know.

1313
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:19,679
Speaker 2: Their defense is well schemed, like very well schemed.

1314
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:22,000
Speaker 1: Yes, And I mean some of the players are kind

1315
01:11:22,000 --> 01:11:23,960
Speaker 1: of playing I guess it's I guess, I guess it's

1316
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:26,040
Speaker 1: a scheme. But yeah, some some of the players, like

1317
01:11:26,080 --> 01:11:28,040
Speaker 1: the in the secondary he's like no name, guys are

1318
01:11:28,080 --> 01:11:28,760
Speaker 1: playing pretty well and.

1319
01:11:28,720 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 2: They do a good job of taking away exposive place

1320
01:11:31,479 --> 01:11:32,800
Speaker 2: yep Son.

1321
01:11:32,320 --> 01:11:34,400
Speaker 1: Under important probably maybe an under game.

1322
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:36,639
Speaker 2: I don't mind the under as long as it's over

1323
01:11:36,680 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 2: forty five.

1324
01:11:37,360 --> 01:11:41,080
Speaker 1: The Jaguars, we saw the Jaguars just too high. The

1325
01:11:41,080 --> 01:11:43,639
Speaker 1: the game to death and with twelve seven or something.

1326
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Ram just make make Donald work down

1327
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:52,120
Speaker 2: the field eventually throw a pick. That's yeah, not the

1328
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:52,559
Speaker 2: worst game.

1329
01:11:52,560 --> 01:11:55,200
Speaker 1: Plan or I mean, or they'll just keep handing it

1330
01:11:55,240 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 1: to uh Aaron Jones and uh you know then that

1331
01:11:58,200 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 1: limits some of their exposiveness in in the basket, all right,

1332
01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:06,759
Speaker 1: Rams at Saints. Saints are three point underdogs at home

1333
01:12:06,840 --> 01:12:11,400
Speaker 1: coming out of the bye. The total is forty nine.

1334
01:12:11,560 --> 01:12:13,360
Speaker 1: I know you like the Rams in this when you

1335
01:12:13,360 --> 01:12:16,639
Speaker 1: were thinking about them for the six packs, So talk

1336
01:12:16,680 --> 01:12:17,639
Speaker 1: to me, Yeah.

1337
01:12:17,520 --> 01:12:19,519
Speaker 2: I wanted under three. It might play them like money

1338
01:12:19,520 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 2: line with something or on their own. Uh. Mcveigh's a

1339
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:27,920
Speaker 2: short week merchant man. He's so good on short weeks.

1340
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:30,080
Speaker 2: It's why I like him at New England a couple

1341
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:32,639
Speaker 2: weeks ago off of that loss. Right, so you might

1342
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:40,040
Speaker 2: say like, oh, you're it's short rest. You're I mean,

1343
01:12:40,080 --> 01:12:42,160
Speaker 2: it's not technically short rest, but you played a Sunday

1344
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:45,200
Speaker 2: night game going across the country on like just to

1345
01:12:45,880 --> 01:12:47,760
Speaker 2: He's been so good in these spots like short rest.

1346
01:12:47,800 --> 01:12:51,920
Speaker 2: He's fourteen and six against the spread eleven in oh

1347
01:12:52,400 --> 01:12:55,720
Speaker 2: as a favorite of under three or a dog like

1348
01:12:56,200 --> 01:12:58,920
Speaker 2: he always has his team in a good cadence. But

1349
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:01,920
Speaker 2: the same look, they beat the Browns. They stole the

1350
01:13:01,920 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 2: game from the Falcons before with the Riz. This is

1351
01:13:05,040 --> 01:13:07,719
Speaker 2: still a bad team. They still don't have any weapons

1352
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:12,519
Speaker 2: on the outside. They it's Derek Carry sensitive to pressure.

1353
01:13:13,400 --> 01:13:15,759
Speaker 2: His numbers fall off a cliff. The Rams can get pressure,

1354
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:19,559
Speaker 2: and I don't think that the Rams. I don't think

1355
01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:22,680
Speaker 2: that the Saints can stop the run or match up

1356
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 2: with the Rams receivers on the outside. So I actually

1357
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 2: think this is a good bio spot on the RUMs

1358
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:32,280
Speaker 2: that they need to win for their playoff hopes. But

1359
01:13:32,439 --> 01:13:36,440
Speaker 2: I need it under three now that it's a three pass.

1360
01:13:37,560 --> 01:13:42,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the SATs are interesting, I because you, okay,

1361
01:13:42,360 --> 01:13:44,519
Speaker 1: they don't have weapons with then Marcus Valdez Scantling just

1362
01:13:44,520 --> 01:13:48,240
Speaker 1: catches look a ninety yard touchdown. But Taysom Hill Taysom

1363
01:13:48,320 --> 01:13:50,880
Speaker 1: Hill like single handed, we destroyed the Browns yet a

1364
01:13:51,080 --> 01:13:55,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty eight rushing yards, three touchdowns, ten targets,

1365
01:13:55,840 --> 01:13:59,160
Speaker 1: eight catches, and fifty more yards through the air. That's

1366
01:13:59,160 --> 01:14:02,960
Speaker 1: one hundred and sent the eight scrimmage yards like on

1367
01:14:04,160 --> 01:14:06,000
Speaker 1: I don't think it was like what fifteen times, Like

1368
01:14:06,160 --> 01:14:08,679
Speaker 1: we've never seen a tight end do this, So I mean.

1369
01:14:08,760 --> 01:14:11,559
Speaker 2: I mean Tayos s Mill has these games like once

1370
01:14:11,640 --> 01:14:14,760
Speaker 2: or twice a year where he just explodes.

1371
01:14:14,960 --> 01:14:17,360
Speaker 1: But now they have no choice, like they like you said,

1372
01:14:17,360 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 1: they have no other weapons, so they might they're gonna

1373
01:14:19,840 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 1: at least give him a shot to do it, because

1374
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:22,720
Speaker 1: a lot of times they would just like use it

1375
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:24,559
Speaker 1: one game and then I don't know, I use them

1376
01:14:24,600 --> 01:14:26,400
Speaker 1: as a decoy. But I feel like now they might

1377
01:14:26,479 --> 01:14:29,120
Speaker 1: just there's a new coaching staff, they might continue feeding them.

1378
01:14:29,160 --> 01:14:31,880
Speaker 1: So that does worry me because the Rams defense can come

1379
01:14:31,880 --> 01:14:34,439
Speaker 1: and go, but they have Pooka and Cup. They should

1380
01:14:34,479 --> 01:14:35,720
Speaker 1: just score points.

1381
01:14:35,960 --> 01:14:38,439
Speaker 2: And they can run the ball here. Yeah, to set

1382
01:14:38,439 --> 01:14:41,200
Speaker 2: everything also up, Saints Rundy is really bad.

1383
01:14:42,280 --> 01:14:43,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'm sure you know, coming off to

1384
01:14:43,680 --> 01:14:45,479
Speaker 1: buy they'll be a little bit a little bit better.

1385
01:14:45,479 --> 01:14:49,360
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's stay away from me. But I get

1386
01:14:49,400 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 1: the I get going with the Rams, but I just

1387
01:14:51,040 --> 01:14:52,240
Speaker 1: I don't. I just feel like I don't know as

1388
01:14:52,320 --> 01:14:54,439
Speaker 1: much about the Saints anymore. New coach. It's not like

1389
01:14:54,680 --> 01:14:58,280
Speaker 1: all reliable fade Dennis Allen anymore. Uh. And then like

1390
01:14:58,320 --> 01:14:59,800
Speaker 1: we got taste them when we were both on the

1391
01:14:59,800 --> 01:15:03,000
Speaker 1: Brea he got asomed, which I mean, it's so like

1392
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:05,360
Speaker 1: I don't know the Saints. Saints a little sneaky, a

1393
01:15:05,360 --> 01:15:08,640
Speaker 1: little sneaky. I want to we'll see a little more. Uh,

1394
01:15:08,840 --> 01:15:11,920
Speaker 1: all right, we got the Niners at the Bills, which

1395
01:15:13,000 --> 01:15:14,840
Speaker 1: I mean it looked like a good game when you

1396
01:15:14,920 --> 01:15:17,200
Speaker 1: look at the schedule early in the season. But now

1397
01:15:17,360 --> 01:15:19,960
Speaker 1: I mean it's minus seven in favor of Buffalo at home.

1398
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:22,439
Speaker 1: The total is forty five. That I mean minus seven

1399
01:15:22,479 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 1: tells me, you know, Party pretty unlikely to play. Because

1400
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:29,120
Speaker 1: Party was healthy, this would be two and a half

1401
01:15:29,160 --> 01:15:32,320
Speaker 1: three I think, so, uh yeah, what are your thoughts

1402
01:15:32,320 --> 01:15:32,720
Speaker 1: on this one?

1403
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:37,680
Speaker 2: No idea he beat injury in poll. Like, so if

1404
01:15:37,680 --> 01:15:42,080
Speaker 2: this party's out and like Trent Williams is out and

1405
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:45,479
Speaker 2: Boats is out, and then this probably would be seven

1406
01:15:45,520 --> 01:15:50,559
Speaker 2: and a half. But if not, uh, you know, if

1407
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:52,120
Speaker 2: this is this price and these guys are in, I

1408
01:15:52,160 --> 01:15:53,800
Speaker 2: would like the forty nine ers. But how healthy is

1409
01:15:53,800 --> 01:15:56,519
Speaker 2: Party I don't know. Way too much injury uncertainty. Bills

1410
01:15:56,520 --> 01:15:58,080
Speaker 2: should be getting healthier too out of the.

1411
01:15:58,000 --> 01:16:00,559
Speaker 1: Bye yeah, receivers and and kincaid.

1412
01:16:01,320 --> 01:16:05,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so at this price, if everyone is out for

1413
01:16:06,040 --> 01:16:11,920
Speaker 2: that would lean bills. But it's part pass wait. Way

1414
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:13,280
Speaker 2: too much uncertainty for a Tuesday.

1415
01:16:14,240 --> 01:16:15,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's also one of those spots where even

1416
01:16:15,920 --> 01:16:18,280
Speaker 1: if guys are out you know, I felt like they

1417
01:16:18,360 --> 01:16:20,360
Speaker 1: kind of they didn't really show up last week, though

1418
01:16:20,600 --> 01:16:22,720
Speaker 1: this might be a week where you know, they you

1419
01:16:22,880 --> 01:16:25,120
Speaker 1: get even if it's like you know, branded out and

1420
01:16:25,160 --> 01:16:28,040
Speaker 1: again it's like you get like, you know, Deebo's best

1421
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:31,200
Speaker 1: effort in a Monster Kittle game and McCaffrey put you know, like.

1422
01:16:31,160 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 2: This is you need Trent Williams, though people didn't talk

1423
01:16:34,600 --> 01:16:38,280
Speaker 2: enough about that that he was also outd we'd pretty

1424
01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:41,160
Speaker 2: out and Trent Williams and then obviously you missed Bosa too,

1425
01:16:42,320 --> 01:16:45,880
Speaker 2: But who's the key to their defense? So there's other

1426
01:16:45,920 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 2: guys besides just pretty I mean, yeah, I would expect

1427
01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:50,720
Speaker 2: a better effort this week, but if you don't have

1428
01:16:50,760 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 2: all those guys, that makes it tough. So yeah, too

1429
01:16:57,560 --> 01:16:59,439
Speaker 2: much uncertainty as right now. I mean, the thing is

1430
01:16:59,479 --> 01:17:02,560
Speaker 2: they were in that game against Screen Bay. They got unlucky, Like, yeah,

1431
01:17:03,160 --> 01:17:05,360
Speaker 2: you were in it, like in the third quarter driving

1432
01:17:05,439 --> 01:17:09,839
Speaker 2: and then you had the turnover at the fourth down stop.

1433
01:17:11,479 --> 01:17:13,320
Speaker 2: There was there were some plays in that game that

1434
01:17:14,560 --> 01:17:17,120
Speaker 2: were unfortunate for the forty nine ers. I mean, they

1435
01:17:17,160 --> 01:17:18,960
Speaker 2: deserve to lose, but they were thirty eight ten was

1436
01:17:19,000 --> 01:17:23,360
Speaker 2: extremely misleading. Final score. But I need to see who's

1437
01:17:23,400 --> 01:17:24,519
Speaker 2: in for the forty nine ers.

1438
01:17:24,800 --> 01:17:26,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just the line being where it is

1439
01:17:26,520 --> 01:17:29,880
Speaker 1: kind of tells you that it's not too optimistic for

1440
01:17:29,960 --> 01:17:33,360
Speaker 1: San Francisco. All right, that's a wrap for us again,

1441
01:17:33,439 --> 01:17:37,720
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving. We really appreciate you listening. And you can

1442
01:17:37,720 --> 01:17:40,920
Speaker 1: find Stuck on X at Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybon.

1443
01:17:41,280 --> 01:17:44,040
Speaker 1: You can hear Stuck on the Big Bets on Campus

1444
01:17:44,040 --> 01:17:47,000
Speaker 1: Pod talking college football. Of course, I'm on The Fantasy

1445
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 1: Facts with Sean Kerner talking props, DFS, player projections, all

1446
01:17:51,080 --> 01:17:56,720
Speaker 1: that good stuff until next week. Happy Thanksgiving, Let's give

1447
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:59,559
Speaker 1: this money, Let's get this money, lego, Happy Thanksgiving.

1448
01:18:08,920 --> 01:18:12,400
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1449
01:18:12,800 --> 01:18:15,639
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1450
01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:18,559
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1451
01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:19,400
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