1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. 2 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 2: Good morning. 3 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 3: stories we're following today, Karen. 5 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 4: The global market selloff continues as investors continue to digest 6 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,920 Speaker 4: the impact of President Trump sweeping tariffs around the world 7 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 4: and their effects on the US economy. Concern is building 8 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 4: that the duties will hammer America's growth, but the President 9 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 4: now says he is open to bringing the tariff rates down. 10 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:35,599 Speaker 5: It depends if somebody said that we're going to give 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:37,600 Speaker 5: you something that's so phenomenal, as long. 12 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 2: As they giving us something that's good. 13 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 5: For instance, with TikTok as an example, we have a 14 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 5: situation with TikTok where China will probably say, will approve 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 5: a deal, but will you do something. 16 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 6: On the town. 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 4: President Trump spoke aboard Air Force one last night, a 18 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 4: day after reviewing a TikTok takeover offer from Oracle Blackstone 19 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 4: and Andrees and Horowitz. The Chinese owned video app has 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 4: until tomorrow to find a buyer or face a ban 21 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:07,319 Speaker 4: in the US. 22 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:12,120 Speaker 3: Well, Nathan, Despite yesterday's deepest sell off extending into this morning, 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: President Trump is predicting the market will boom once the 24 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 3: tariffs kick in. Mice President JD. Vans is echoing that. 25 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 3: In an interview with Newsmax, I. 26 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 7: Freankly thought, in some ways it could be worse in 27 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,120 Speaker 7: the markets because this is a big transition. You saw 28 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 7: the President said earlier today. It's like a patient who 29 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 7: was very sick. We did the operation, and now it's 30 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 7: time to make the patient better. 31 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 2: And that's exactly what we're doing. 32 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 3: Vice President JD. Vans told Newsmac Newsmax last night that 33 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: the stock market will boom for a long time because 34 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 3: we're reinvesting in America. 35 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 4: Well, Karen, we continue to see the fallout from Trump's 36 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 4: tariffs in Europe. Let's go to London get the very 37 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 4: latest with Bloomberg's ew and Potts. 38 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 2: Good morning you in, Nathan and Karen. 39 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 8: No sign of the promised stock market boom in Europe today, 40 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 8: the stocks EATUNDUS sliding as much as two percent, reaching 41 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 8: its lowest since January fifteenth. While markets react to the 42 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 8: tariff Bazuka, Europe's political leaders a weighing their response, President 43 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 8: mccron of France saying there must be collective solidarity, urging 44 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 8: European businesses to reduce investments in the United States. They 45 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 8: use biggest economy Germany, also pushing for a more robust 46 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:21,080 Speaker 8: response to the US president's threats in London, I'm Une 47 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 8: Potsplinberg Radio. 48 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 3: Right you and thank you. Well, let's turn back to 49 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,119 Speaker 3: the markets here in the US, where futures again are 50 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 3: falling following yesterday's massive selloff on Wall Street. The NASDAG 51 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 3: plunged six percent, the S and P five hundred drop 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 3: four point eight percent. Well, the Dow fell almost seventeen 53 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 3: hundred points or four percent. So what should an investor do. 54 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 3: We have a couple of calls this morning, and we 55 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 3: bring in Bloomberg's John Tucker with the latest. 56 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 2: John, Good morning, Good morning Karen. 57 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 9: Let's start with what investors are afraid is going to happen. 58 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 9: Bob michael is with JP Morgan Investment. 59 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 10: How two stand as they were announced that's going to 60 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,519 Speaker 10: push the US economy into recession? 61 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 9: Was caught off guarded by the severity of the tariffs. 62 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 9: They're even bigger than the smooth holy tariffs at the 63 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,279 Speaker 9: beginning of the Great Depression. Jane Foley is with Robbobank. 64 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 11: These are at the top head really of many market 65 00:03:11,800 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 11: full costs that we had. 66 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 9: Semas shod principal Global Investors sees the threat of higher 67 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 9: inflation and slower growth, the dreaded stagflation. 68 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 12: And we know from looking at previous regime, previous market 69 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 12: movements over history, that stack fations typically the regime where 70 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:30,679 Speaker 12: rarely does any asset class do particularly well. 71 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 9: You begs downgraded US stocks warning of prolonged market volatility. 72 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 9: Legendary investor Bill Grows warns potential dip buyers, this is 73 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 9: an epic economic and market event, and don't catch a 74 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 9: falling knife. So what stocks do well in such an environment? 75 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:50,839 Speaker 9: Tobacco and household products, As Bloomberg columnist John Authors points out, 76 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 9: people will always smoke and go to the bathroom in 77 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 9: New York time, John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. 78 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, thank you, John. 79 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 4: While all investors take a big hit to their portfolios, 80 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 4: some of the rich and famous were particularly hard hit. 81 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Lisa Matteo joins us with that angle on the 82 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 4: cell off. Good morning Lisa, Good morning there, Nathan. 83 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 11: Yeah, the world's five hundred riches people saw their combined 84 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 11: wealth plunge by two hundred and eight billion dollars yesterday. Now, 85 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 11: if that sounds like a big number. Well, it's because 86 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,599 Speaker 11: it is. It's the fourth largest one day decline in 87 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 11: the Bloomberg Billionaires indexes thirteen year history. It's also the 88 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 11: largest in the height of the pandemic. Billionaires in the 89 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 11: US they were affected the most metas Mark Zuckerberg at 90 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,159 Speaker 11: the top. The company's nine percent slide, well it cost 91 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 11: him seventeen point nine billion dollars. Amazon's nine percent plunge, 92 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 11: well that cost Jeff Bezos fifteen point nine billion in 93 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 11: personal wealth. And Tesla's Elon Musk he lost eleven billion. 94 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 11: The only region with the rich sawn net gains on 95 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 11: the index was the Middle East. Lisa Matteo, Bloomberg Radio. 96 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 3: All right, Lisa, thank you well that Trump tariff continues 97 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: to impact global markets. Joe Lavornia, chief economist at sm 98 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 3: sm BC Neco Securities and a former Trump economic advisor, says, 99 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 3: let's see how things play out long term. 100 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 6: We could disagree on the approach and the implementation. That's 101 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 6: we could debate that, but ultimately, where is the economy 102 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 6: next spring in summer? If it's turning up and turning 103 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 6: up powerfully, and it looks like the negotiator administration and 104 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,920 Speaker 6: as trading partners are moving back to the center. Then 105 00:05:24,040 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 6: maybe all this is just a lot of noise and 106 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 6: things have settled down. 107 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 2: We have some minimal level of tariffs. 108 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 6: There's some protectionism, but generally speaking, cooler heads prevailed and 109 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 6: things worked out. 110 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 3: As NBC Neco Securities Joe Lavornia says, Trump's tariff announcement 111 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 3: was more aggressive than he anticipated, but he has not 112 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 3: yet changed his outlook for US growth In twenty twenty. 113 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 2: Five, well Karen. 114 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: New York Governor Kathy Hochel says tariffs have already hit 115 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:48,360 Speaker 4: her state's economy. 116 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 2: She spoke with Bloomberg's Balance of Power. 117 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 13: This is the tenth largest economy in the world. We 118 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 13: have Wall Street, we have farms. We have a border 119 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 13: four hundred and fifty miles with Canada, so we have 120 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 13: trade relationship with candover fifty billion dollars. So already, here's 121 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 13: what we're seeing, droppings and bookings from Canadians coming to 122 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,120 Speaker 13: New York State, a huge source of tourism all the 123 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 13: way to New York City. But it's certainly my hometown 124 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 13: in Buffalo where Canadians come over all the time and 125 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,360 Speaker 13: they go to our sporting as, they shop. 126 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:17,559 Speaker 2: In our source. 127 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 4: You York Governor Kathy Hokeel called the tariff's an unforced 128 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 4: error and said the state may have to adjust how 129 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 4: it funds various social programs in the coming year. Here 130 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 4: the full conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. Watch it 131 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 4: on the Bloomberg Podcasts page on YouTube. 132 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 3: Well, Nathan. In addition to the tariff fueled market selloff, 133 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 3: investors will have another economic report to digest. At eight 134 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 3: thirty Wall Street time, we'll get the jobs report for 135 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: the month of March, and we get a preview with 136 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:45,800 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg's and Michael McKee. 137 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 14: The Trump fallout is visible in the markets, but maybe 138 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 14: not so much in today's jobs numbers. Federal hiring may 139 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 14: have slowed or may come up slightly negative, but most 140 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 14: dose job cuts came after the March survey week, and 141 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 14: there's still a lot of confused us about who is 142 00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 14: actually fired. What the Fed we'll want to see is 143 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 14: the unemployment rate, which they are viewing as a proxy 144 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 14: for the overall economy. Again, the issue is that too 145 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 14: is pre tariffs, so absent big moves in either job 146 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 14: creation or joblessness, today's jobs figures won't have a long 147 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 14: lasting impact on investor or Central bank thinking. Michael McKee, 148 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 14: Bloomberg Radio. 149 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 3: All right, Mike, thank you. Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keen 150 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 3: and Paul Sweeney will bring you full coverage of the 151 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 3: jobs are poored again. That's eight thirty Wall Street Time 152 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 3: right here on Bloomberg Radio. 153 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 2: Thank current. Investors are also going to hear from j 154 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 2: Powell this morning. 155 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 4: The Fed chief is getting ready to for a speech 156 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 4: on the state of the US economy. Powell's address and 157 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 4: that Job's report come as traders increase bets on rate cuts. 158 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 4: Money markets now show one hundred basis points of reductions 159 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 4: by year's end. That's up from about seventy five before 160 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:52,040 Speaker 4: the tariffs were announced. 161 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 2: This week. 162 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 4: Catch Powell's full remarks at eleven thirty Wall Street Time 163 00:07:55,960 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 4: on Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg Television, and the Bloomberg Podcasts YouTube page. 164 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 3: Well Nathan andother news This morning, Republicans are considering a 165 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 3: new tax bracket for millionaires. On Bloomberg's Amy Morris has 166 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 3: more from Washington. 167 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 15: The goal is to pass the tax bill to renew 168 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 15: the twenty seventeen tax cuts, but they have to pay 169 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 15: for it somehow, so sources tell Bloomberg. In a departure 170 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 15: from decades of opposition to such tax increases, Republicans are 171 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 15: weighing a new tax bracket with a top rate of 172 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 15: around thirty nine to forty percent. Another option being considered 173 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 15: raising the top tax rate from thirty seven to thirty 174 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 15: nine point six percent for incomes above six hundred twenty 175 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 15: six three hundred and fifty dollars. That reverts back to 176 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 15: the rate that was set by former President Obama. In Washington, 177 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:45,439 Speaker 15: Amy Morris Bloomberg Radio. 178 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: Time Now for a look at some of the other 179 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 3: stories making news in New York and around the world. 180 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 3: And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. 181 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,880 Speaker 10: Michael, Good Morning, Good morning Karen. President Trump has removed 182 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 10: General Timothy Hawk from his position as director of the 183 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 10: National Security Agency. That's according to two top Democrats on 184 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 10: the Senate and House Intelligence committees. One lawmaker says it 185 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 10: makes us all less safe. The Washington Post, who first 186 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 10: reported the story, also says Hawk's civilian deputy at the NSA, 187 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 10: Wendy Noble, was reassigned to another position within the Pentagon. 188 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 10: Storm systems moving across the Midwest and South could bring 189 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 10: ten to fifteen inches of rain in some areas. Bloomberg 190 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 10: Media religis Craig Allen has the latest. 191 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 16: This is a wild, frightening, immovable setup right now, and 192 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 16: so the same areas continue to get pummeled by torrential 193 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 16: rainfall thunderstorms that reach severe levels and spawn tornadoes. We've 194 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 16: had over four dozen tornadoes reported already, and the same 195 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 16: areas will be affected over the next twenty four to 196 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,199 Speaker 16: forty eight hours and perhaps right on through the rest 197 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 16: of the weekend. 198 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 10: Bloomberg's Craig Allen. At least seven people were found dead 199 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 10: after tornado's tour through the South and Midwest. Five of 200 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 10: those victims in Tennessee. That includes a massive ef three 201 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 10: Wednesday night in Selmer, Tennessee. Governor Bill Lee. 202 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 17: Entire neighborhoods that were completely wiped out, apartment complexes that 203 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:16,560 Speaker 17: were destroyed by the tornado, many many families displaced, loss of. 204 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 18: Life, Governor Bill Lee. 205 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 10: In Bristol, Pennsylvania, three people were killed when they were 206 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 10: struck by an Amtrak train heading from New York to Philadelphia. 207 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 10: Police Chief Joe Moores. 208 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,559 Speaker 19: When our officers arrived, the sergeant was starting to head 209 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 19: up to the subjects up on the railroad tracks when 210 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 19: an Excel A high speed train traveling southbound towards Philadelphia 211 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 19: struck all three subjects. 212 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 2: That were up on the track. 213 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 10: Service between New York and Philadelphia was temporarily suspended. Finally, 214 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 10: the Trump administration is poised to block five hundred and 215 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 10: ten million dollars in federal grants and contracts for Brown 216 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 10: University due to the school's response to anti semitism on campus. 217 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 10: The potential freeze followed similar moves again Columbia, Harvard, and 218 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 10: Princeton Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever 219 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 10: you want it with the Bloomberg News. Now, I'm Michael Barr, 220 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 10: and this is Bloomberg Karen. 221 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:16,440 Speaker 3: All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the 222 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,280 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sports Update. Here's John Stanshower. John, good morning, Good. 223 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 10: Morning, Karen. 224 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 20: The Metz are back at Cityfield. Home opener starts at 225 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 20: three o'clark Tyler McGill on the mount against Toronto. The 226 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 20: Pirates have their home opener just after four. The Yankees 227 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 20: arrived in Pittsburgh late last night. I've turn around. The 228 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,559 Speaker 20: Yanks finished a season opening homestand with a quick starting 229 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,920 Speaker 20: against Arizona first inning, a double, a walk, and Aaron 230 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 20: Judge at the plate trip it out to us. 231 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 19: Enter field in deep He do see yas who did 232 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 19: the extra vase hit? 233 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:52,120 Speaker 18: There's fifteen over the year and a three nothing Yankee lead. 234 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 20: Yes, then we're two innings later a Trent grisham to 235 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 20: run shot on one ding. After that, Jazz Chisholm with 236 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 20: a man aboard his fourth and Yanks twenty sank in 237 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 20: home run hitting their first six games, they led nine 238 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 20: to three. The Diamondbacks made an interestingam with the seventh 239 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,080 Speaker 20: inn in Grand Slam, but the Yanks one nine to seven, 240 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:10,560 Speaker 20: salvaged the game. In the series, the Red Sox won 241 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 20: eighty four at Baltimore Adox. Bregmant his first Boston home 242 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 20: run Socks and the Cardinals. 243 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 2: This afternoon at Fenway in Brooklyn. 244 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 20: Nets lost to Minnesota one oh five to ninety and 245 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 20: Milwaukee's winning Philadelphia Jannis Son to the COMFO thirty five points, 246 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 20: seventeen rebounds, twenty assists. Nick Day Jalen Brunson will practice. 247 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 20: They could return from his ankle injury tomorrow's game in Atlanta. 248 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 20: The Rangers tomorrow visit the Devils. Montreal won last night. 249 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 20: The Canadians have a two point lead on the Rangers 250 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 20: for the last. 251 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 18: Playoff spot in the East. 252 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,680 Speaker 20: The NCAA Women's Final Four starts tonight in Tampa and 253 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 20: for our listeners on ninety nine to one in Boston 254 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 20: eleven to three zero in New York who can hear 255 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 20: the games starting at six? The men have their semifinals 256 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,719 Speaker 20: tomorrow in San Antonio. The Patriots have traded quarterback Joe 257 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 20: miltonto Dallas for a fifth round draft pick John STASHEDWARER 258 00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 20: Bloomberg Sports Cary Nathan. 259 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 1: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius Exam 260 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 261 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 262 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. 263 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 4: Markets are coming off their worst day in nearly five years, 264 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 4: Roughly two and a half trillion dollars white from the 265 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 4: stock market after President Donald Trump unleashed new tariffs on 266 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 4: roughly every country in the world, and the losses continue 267 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 4: into the early morning hours. But the President says he's 268 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 4: not worried about the market reaction. 269 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 17: The markets are going to boom. 270 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 18: The stock is going to boom. 271 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 3: The country is going to boom and the. 272 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 5: Rest of the world wants to see, is there any 273 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 5: way that can make a deal. 274 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 4: That was the President speaking after the S and P 275 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 4: five hundred fell four point eight percent the. 276 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 2: Day after his tariff rollout. 277 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 4: Joining us this morning, Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy 278 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:54,959 Speaker 4: at Bridesco Securities. 279 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: Ben, have you seen anything like this in your career? 280 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:58,079 Speaker 2: Good morning. 281 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 21: My background in emerging market so unfortunately I have, but 282 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 21: we certainly haven't seen it in a while. And this 283 00:14:07,800 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 21: is early days of markets trying to price in what 284 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 21: was a near worst case scenario with higher tariffs than expected, 285 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 21: more opaque tariffs and expected, and more open ended tariffs unexpected. 286 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,000 Speaker 21: So this has sent us recession risks through the roof, 287 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 21: and the market is grappling with that and starting to 288 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 21: try and price this in. 289 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: Is recession turning into a base case for you? 290 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 21: So recession probability risks were probably thirty percent last week 291 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 21: and rising. Now they're fifty and rising, So that's uncomfortably high. 292 00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 21: The big debate of markets right now is are we 293 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 21: going into a real recession or is this just a 294 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 21: growth scare. 295 00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 18: I'm leaning towards growth. 296 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 21: Scare, but I frankly wish I had more confidence in 297 00:14:58,480 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 21: that opinion than I do. 298 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 4: Part of the debate as well, is what to do 299 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 4: about this ongoing dip in the market. We heard Bill 300 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 4: gross Warren investors not to try to catch a falling knife. 301 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 4: Ed yard Denny of Yard Denny Research says, this is 302 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 4: a buying opportunity. 303 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 2: Which way do you swing that this kind of uncertainty. 304 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 21: Yeah, as I said, I'm leaning towards growth scare not recession. 305 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 21: If that's right, then I think you gradually dribble money 306 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 21: into this market. You dollar cost average it. You don't 307 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 21: jump in with both feet. This probably takes This is 308 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 21: probably more on a one day repricing event. I guess 309 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 21: the three things to watch. One economic uncertainty in the US. 310 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 18: Absolutely sky high right now. One hope that hopes. 311 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 21: That that gradually is the easies and comes down from here. 312 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 21: Maybe as we get sort of more visibility on some 313 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 21: of these tariff deals too. The underlying data does need 314 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 21: to stay resilient. And we have a job number today 315 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 21: and three. Some of this depends on the rest of 316 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 21: the world, the degree of TARA retaliation we get. Do 317 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 21: we go down this, you know, into a full blown 318 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 21: trade war or is there some restraint. 319 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 18: Those are the three things that I'm watching. 320 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 21: I'm modestly optimistic that they all turn out to be 321 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 21: a little bit less bad than expected. 322 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 18: But as I say, early days. 323 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 4: Yeah, to that point, we heard the President just last 324 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 4: night saying on Air Force one that he's willing to 325 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 4: lower teriff rates as if he gets some kind of 326 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,880 Speaker 4: phenomenal deal from other countries. What does that tell you 327 00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 4: about what the terify out look could be coming from 328 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 4: this White House? 329 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 21: It tells us that it may ease that this is transactional, 330 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 21: but that's sort of part of the problem. It's uncertainty 331 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 21: that markets and investors hate, and this is. 332 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 18: Just prolongs that uncertainty. 333 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,480 Speaker 21: But again against the terrible backdrop this, maybe it becomes 334 00:16:45,520 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 21: a little bit less bad, and you know that may 335 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 21: be all you need when markets have got this stressed. 336 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 4: We do have a speech from Chairman Powell coming up 337 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 4: as well, so many potential catalysts for this market. Could 338 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 4: the Fed chair change the narrative here later today? 339 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,880 Speaker 21: He may, but it may not be for good reasons. 340 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 21: If he talks and starts talking about the necessity for more. 341 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 18: Cuts than I think. 342 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:14,160 Speaker 21: You know that may make a bad situation worse because 343 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 21: he's only going to be doing that if you know, 344 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,199 Speaker 21: the growth risks are spiking. Having said that, you know, 345 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 21: I do think there is still a Trump puts out there, 346 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 21: just maybe further away that we would like. Ultimately, I 347 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 21: think there is still a FED put out there. Yes, 348 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 21: there's a lot of talk about sticky inflation and everything else, 349 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 21: but in the Fed's dual mandate, they've always prioritized style 350 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 21: of growth over higher inflation, and we are going into 351 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 21: a growth slowdown. 352 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:40,360 Speaker 18: It's just a question of how big. 353 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:43,680 Speaker 21: So the market's now pricing five cuts over the next 354 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 21: year or so rather than three, So you know, the 355 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 21: market's certainly hoping and maybe we get a little bit 356 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 21: of help from Fed pale from Chepawe letters today. 357 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 4: We're going into another earning season later next week as well. 358 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 4: How could all this play into earnings as we start 359 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 4: to get those reports coming out. 360 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 21: So I think this is all, you know, earnings per 361 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 21: se will probably be fine. I think the focus is 362 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 21: all going to be on the guidance, where there is 363 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,719 Speaker 21: now just complete uncertainty, especially for anybody that's doing business 364 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:19,239 Speaker 21: outside the United States. So I think people are going 365 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 21: to be very focused on the guidance companies trying to 366 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,920 Speaker 21: grapple with what this means for earnings. Guidance is absolutely 367 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 21: going to be coming down. It's coming down from sort 368 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 21: of double digit levels, so it's from a good place, 369 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 21: but again the risk is all on the downside. 370 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 18: That's what we're pricing in right now. 371 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 4: All right, Ben, really appreciate you coming back on with 372 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 4: us this morning. That is Ben laydlor He is head 373 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 4: of equity strategy at Pridesco Securities. 374 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 3: Karen Nathan repeating some of our top stories this morning, 375 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 3: President Trump says he's willing to cut tariffs if other 376 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 3: countries offer something phenomenal. The world's richest lasting combined two 377 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,160 Speaker 3: hundred eight billion dollars in yesterday's global stocks sell off. 378 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 3: New York Kathy Hochel tells Bloomberg the tariffs are already 379 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 3: hurting state tourism and sales tax revenue. She says the 380 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 3: potential silver lining of boosted manufacturing could take years, and 381 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 3: economists again have a speech from J. Powell and a 382 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 3: March Job's report to consider today. The consensus calls for 383 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 3: one hundred and forty thousand new jobs, and the unemployment 384 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 3: rates study at four point one percent, and we have 385 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 3: more on those stories coming up. 386 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:25,199 Speaker 18: Nathan. 387 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 4: All right, Karen, thank you. Matter of fact, we have 388 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 4: more coming up right now. When it comes to the economy. 389 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 4: Let's bring in us economist at City, Veronica Clark, as 390 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 4: we assess the tariff. 391 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 2: Impact and look ahead to March jobs. 392 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 4: Veronica is with us this morning in our Bloomberg Interactive 393 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 4: Brokers studio. 394 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 2: It's good to have you with us on the scene. Veronica. 395 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 4: Where are you putting recession odds after the tariffs? 396 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 22: Good morning, Yeah, good morning, Thank you for having me. 397 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 23: I mean, we had already been seeing a lot of 398 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 23: slowing in the economy even last year headed into the 399 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 23: start of this year. We've had a particularly soft start 400 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 23: to consumer spending the first couple months of the year, 401 00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 23: so we were already expecting, you know, growth to be 402 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 23: pretty close to flat for a couple quarters for the year. Obviously, 403 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 23: an added terrorifrist could could certainly push that over into 404 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 23: something like a couple quarters of negative growth. 405 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 4: Are you putting specific numbers on where inflation could go? 406 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 2: Where you could go? 407 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 23: Yeah, I mean, this of course is going to be 408 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 23: more inflation in our forecast, just mechanically than that we 409 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 23: were expecting. Of course, the tariffs themselves were a lot bigger, 410 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 23: adding you know, something like another percent maybe to to 411 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 23: CPI PC inflation, maybe getting close to four percent for 412 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 23: the end of the year. We are expecting that that's 413 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 23: just somewhat mechanical. You'll see it in goods prices. Maybe 414 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,679 Speaker 23: the spillover isn't as broad because it will also shrink growth, 415 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 23: you know, something maybe close to a percentage point, you know, 416 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,360 Speaker 23: drag on consumption investment off of growth for the year. 417 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 4: You're hinting at the box that that could put the 418 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 4: FED into if we do you see at least a 419 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 4: short term rise in inflation along with slowing growth. What 420 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 4: does the FED do in a scenario like this. 421 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 22: Yeah, it's a. 422 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,880 Speaker 23: Very tricky situation, of course, and seeing a stronger inflation 423 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 23: data can. 424 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 22: Of course be uncomfortable. 425 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 23: But it is interesting that the FED is going into 426 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 23: this tariff inflation period expecting that tariff inflation will be transitory, 427 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 23: and I do think that's somewhat the right way to 428 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 23: look at it. You know, if growth is much softer, 429 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 23: then yeah, you'll see goods prices increase, but you won't 430 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 23: see the spillover necessarily to services. Obviously, long run inflation 431 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 23: expectations will be an important part of that, But I 432 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 23: think the growth risk. 433 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 22: Will really be what is new and concerning for them. 434 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 23: That was a risk that was not as evident to 435 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 23: Fed officials maybe six months ago, and I do think 436 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 23: they'll be reacting to that, and they'll be cutting a 437 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 23: lot more. 438 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,520 Speaker 4: You know, when you use the word transitory, I'm sure 439 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 4: a lot of listeners goose bumps go up. What is 440 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 4: the risk that this could be something less than transittory, 441 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,919 Speaker 4: that we could see a more structural change to inflation 442 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 4: going yeah forward. 443 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 23: Yeah, it was a bit interesting to hear Powell use 444 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 23: that word a couple of weeks ago. I think this 445 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 23: is just a very different economy than twenty twenty two, 446 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 23: a different demand backdrop than twenty twenty two. The labor 447 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,119 Speaker 23: market has already been loosening. We've already seen the unemployment 448 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 23: rate gradually rise, Hiring rates are very low, wage growth 449 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 23: is slowing, and so this is not an economy that's 450 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,639 Speaker 23: as prone to those self fulfilling kind of inflation wage 451 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 23: price spirals that we saw a couple of years ago. 452 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 4: Okay, since you mentioned the coolness that we're seeing in 453 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 4: the labor market. Let's transition to that. The March non 454 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 4: farm payrolls report coming up in just about three hours time. 455 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 4: What's your expectation what we're going to see from the 456 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:46,560 Speaker 4: Labor Department later this morning. 457 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 22: Yeah, this one. 458 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 23: The risks of the market I think are very asymmetric, 459 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 23: because if it's strong, it's before this period where all 460 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,160 Speaker 23: these risks from tariff tariffs has escalated. But if it's weak, 461 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 23: and we do think we'll see more slowing. We have 462 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 23: ninety five thousand jobs for March, the unemployment rate rising 463 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 23: to four point two percent. Well, then that's the labor 464 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 23: market that was already slowing before these new headwinds. 465 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 4: Is it slowing because of government layoffs? Are we going 466 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 4: to start to see that filter into these numbers? 467 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 23: There were more layoffs that happened in February. I think 468 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 23: the tricky part though, is that you know, there was 469 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 23: a court order to rehire some of these employees in March, 470 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 23: so maybe they don't drop off of the payroll number 471 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 23: right right now. Maybe that's really more in the summer 472 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 23: when we're getting those big government layoffs. I think this 473 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 23: report and maybe even the next one, though, the weakness 474 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,719 Speaker 23: will maybe be driven by weak hiring. 475 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 22: This is a time of year when. 476 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 23: Hiring is supposed to pick up, and uncertainty, of course, 477 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:43,160 Speaker 23: could constrain. 478 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 22: Hiring even more, and that alone can slow job growth. 479 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:50,919 Speaker 4: Speaking of that uncertainty, what could the implementation of tariffs 480 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 4: mean for labor demand? 481 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 23: Yeah, I think the normal expectation would be that, you know, 482 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 23: businesses are not going to be hiring right now. Of 483 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,200 Speaker 23: course you're gonna you're a hold back on adding any 484 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 23: extra costs if labor costs, you know, would add to 485 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 23: tariff costs, So I think the first response is to 486 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 23: to pull back on hiring. But eventually, if you're you know, 487 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 23: tariff related input costs are going up, you might start 488 00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 23: to see layoffs. 489 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 22: There was a small. 490 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 23: Uptick in the Challenger job cuts by reasons being tariffs 491 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 23: in the report that we got from Challenger yesterday. 492 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 22: We might see that rise more as we get into 493 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 22: the summer. 494 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 4: What should the bigger focus be for the feds duel 495 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 4: mandate maximum employment or the inflation outlook given these new 496 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 4: tariffs said, we've got about a. 497 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 23: Minute left, Yeah, I think they'll They'll obviously have to 498 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 23: balance both sides of that mandate and We are coming 499 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 23: off of a period where you know, inflation was the 500 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 23: main concern, so they will be sensitive to to that. 501 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 23: But again, I think it goes back to how they're 502 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,440 Speaker 23: thinking about this this kind of inflation and they're expecting 503 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 23: to see it in you know, goods prices in the 504 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,920 Speaker 23: data temporarily, but that it would be a one time 505 00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:00,000 Speaker 23: level shift higher in certain prices and it would not 506 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,440 Speaker 23: be the broad based necessarily. 507 00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 22: I think if you're. 508 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 23: Seeing softer wage inflation services inflation, they're going. 509 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 22: To be much more worried about the employment side of 510 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 22: the manday. 511 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories 512 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 3: making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 513 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 4: Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 514 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,359 Speaker 4: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 515 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,400 Speaker 3: You can also listen live each morning starting at five 516 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,160 Speaker 3: am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 517 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 3: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, 518 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 3: Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious 519 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 3: XM Channel one twenty one. 520 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 4: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app 521 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 4: Now with Apple CarPlay and Android auto interfaces, and. 522 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 3: Don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. It's the 523 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,359 Speaker 3: latest news, whenever you want it in five minutes or less. 524 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 3: Search Bloomberg News Now on your favorite podcast platform to 525 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 3: stay informed all day long. I'm Karen Moscow. 526 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 2: And I'm Nathan Hager. Join us again tomorrow morning for 527 00:25:57,600 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: all the news you need to start your day, right 528 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg. Dabrie